03 Jan 26. Sibylline reported today that earlier on 3 January, the US military conducted several airstrikes in Venezuela at around 0200hrs (local time), including in the capital Caracas; US President Donald Trump also stated that the US military has captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The Venezuelan regime reported that attacks also occurred in Aragua, Miranda and La Guaira states. Targets reportedly included the major military complex Fort Tiuna and La Carlota Air Base (both Caracas); communications infrastructure near El Volcán (Miranda state) and La Guaira port (La Guaira state); and unidentified targets in Aragua state. Furthermore, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a notice to airmen (NOTAM) earlier on 3 January banning US commercial flights over Venezuela and Curaçao due to the ‘ongoing military activity’. In response, the Venezuelan regime declared a national emergency and has enacted military mobilisation plans. Neither the US nor the Venezuelan authorities have reported the number of casualties.
SIGNIFICANCE
* Since August, the US has deployed military assets to the Caribbean Sea with the stated aim of tackling regional drug trafficking. The deployment comprises significant naval and air assets, including the USS Gerald R Ford aircraft carrier.
* Since September, the US military has conducted a series of strikes against suspected drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean, killing at least 110 people to date. The US has also seized sanctioned oil tankers servicing Venezuela to increase economic pressure.
* In response, Maduro’s regime offered the Trump administration a number of significant concessions, such as minerals and oil rights, in exchange for a decrease in military pressure. The Trump administration has so far rejected all proposals.
FORECAST
Further strikes on key military and Venezuelan regime positions are a realistic possibility in the coming hours and days, elevating physical security risks. Possible targets include military airstrips, ports, barracks, power stations, communications infrastructure and government buildings housing high-profile regime members. Further strikes would significantly increase asset damage and physical security risks for personnel and assets proximate to these installations. Additionally, if the US accompanies strikes with special forces operations to capture other members of the Venezuelan regime, the risk of armed clashes will increase. Nevertheless, we continue to assess that a large-scale US ground invasion of Venezuela is a remote possibility in the near term. The Venezuelan regime is unlikely to retaliate militarily against the US in the short-to-medium term, decreasing the risk of armed conflict. The Venezuelan regime will likely attempt to negotiate with the Trump administration by offering further concessions which will possibly de-escalate bilateral tensions.
In the immediate term, the risk of a coup d’état against the Venezuelan regime by elements of the armed forces will increase significantly (see Sibylline Special Report – 23 December 2025). Vice President Delcy Rodríguez will highly likely assume the presidency in Maduro’s absence. The Venezuelan regime will highly likely mobilise the security forces to lock down Caracas and other major urban centres, as well as reinforcing critical national infrastructure, such as airports and ports. This will cause significant operational disruption to the aviation and maritime sectors in the immediate term. The disruption will be exacerbated by the FAA NOTAM and the likelihood of intense GPS jamming operations by the US military off the coast of Venezuela. In the event of an attempted coup, the risk of armed clashes will increase significantly in Caracas, proximate to key regime infrastructure, such as the Miraflores presidential palace.
The Venezuelan regime will likely retaliate by cracking down on opposition supporters, increasing repression risks. The Venezuelan opposition will highly likely take advantage of the strikes and Maduro’s alleged exfiltration by the US. Anti-government demonstrations calling for de facto opposition leader María Corina Machado or former presidential candidate Edmundo González Urrutia to take power are highly likely in the coming hours and days. A heavy-handed crackdown on protests by the regime is highly likely as well as arrests of prominent opposition figures. Increased repression will elevate arbitrary detention, censorship and physical security risks for personnel in the humanitarian and journalism sectors, as well as individuals associated with the opposition. Surveillance of US nationals in Venezuela will also likely increase in the coming days. (Source: Sibylline)