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21 Nov 24. DOD Adjusts Nuclear Deterrence Strategy as Nuclear Peer Adversaries Escalate. Multiple nuclear peer adversaries challenge the U.S. and its allies’ and partners’ security, according to the Defense Department.
“We are now in a world where we’re facing multiple nuclear competitors, multiple states that are growing, diversifying and modernizing their nuclear arsenals and also, unfortunately, prioritizing the role that nuclear weapons play in their national security strategies,” said Richard C. Johnson.
As the security environment evolves, adjustments to the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review may be required to sustain the ability to achieve nuclear deterrence, in light of enhanced nuclear capabilities of China and Russia and possible lack of nuclear arms control agreements after February, said Johnson, deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and countering weapons of mass destruction policy, who spoke on a panel at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Project on Nuclear Issues event, yesterday in Washington, D.C.
The underlying logic of nuclear deterrence remains sound. Also, the U.S. remains committed to a safe, secure and reliable nuclear deterrent, he said.
However, the nuclear modernization program of record, while necessary, may be insufficient moving forward, he added.
DOD, in partnership with the National Nuclear Security Administration, has already taken steps to field capabilities to enhance nuclear deterrence and flexibility and to reduce risk to the department’s nuclear modernization program, Johnson said.
These include the B61-13 gravity bomb, delivered by aircraft, as well as the enhanced readiness of nuclear armed and powered Ohio-class submarines, he said.
The Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration would produce the B61-13, which is a modern variant of the B61.
On Nov. 15, the department submitted the 791 Report to Congress describing the nuclear employment strategy of the U.S. It’s called the 491 because it was submitted in accordance with U.S. Code, Title 10, Section 491.
The 491 report describes changes that have been made from previous guidance and accounts for the new deterrence challenges that are posed by the growth, modernization and increasing diversity of potential adversaries’ nuclear arsenals, Johnson said.
The report directs that the U.S.:
- Plans to deter multiple nuclear-armed adversaries simultaneously.
- Requires the integration of non-nuclear capabilities, where feasible, to support the nuclear deterrence mission.
- Stresses the importance of escalation management in U.S. planning for responding to limited nuclear attack or high-consequence, non-nuclear strategic attack.
- Enables deeper consultation, coordination and combined planning with allies and partners in order to strengthen U.S. extended deterrence commitments.
The report also recognizes that deterrence alone will not address strategic dangers. It recognizes that arms control and that risk reduction and nuclear nonproliferation play indispensable roles as well, Johnson said.
Grant Schneider, vice deputy director for strategic stability at the Joint Staff, who also spoke, said that another part of the report is the significant intellectual and analytical work required to identify the range of scenarios and strategic circumstances that the U.S. might face alongside its allies going into the 2030s.
“To be prepared for the 2030s, we have to modernize our nuclear forces, the nuclear command and control, and the associated infrastructure that will allow us to be flexible and adjust over time as new challenges arise, whether that’s new threats or potential changes or delays in our modernization,” Schneider said. (Source: U.S. DoD)
21 Nov 24. DOD Comptroller Assesses Accomplishments, Aspirations. Over the past three years, the Defense Department’s budget has increased from $700bn to $850bn. On Tuesday, Mike McCord, undersecretary of defense (comptroller), provided the keynote address at the Professional Services Council’s 2024 Vision Federal Market Forecast Conference.
“This has allowed us to keep retention strong despite record low unemployment for the all-volunteer force, including a 15% pay raise over that period while investing record amounts in capabilities in procurement and research and development,” he said in prepared remarks.
“New tools and initiatives expanded our playing field, capabilities and the industrial base” over the last several years, he said. These include the Office of Strategic Capital; the Defense Innovation Unit; Replicator; the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office, multiyear contracts for munitions; and planning, programming, budgeting and execution reform work with Congress.
Headwinds over the last three years faced by the department included the COVID-19 pandemic, the shift to telework and hybrid work across the U.S., record low unemployment, post-COVID inflation and a series of continuing resolutions that hampered modernization and readiness, he said.
McCord said he hopes the next Congress and administration will value the talent and dedication of the civil service workforce in the interest of national security.
“To those who would argue we did too much in Ukraine, the Pacific or the Middle East, I would say, we defended our friends and our interests in all three regions, as you’d expect the leader of the free world to do,” the comptroller said.
Lastly, McCord stressed the need for the U.S. to work closely with allies and partners in order to leverage their strength and shared values. (Source: U.S. DoD)
20 Nov 24. Stratcom Commander Discusses Nuclear System. As global tensions rise, the United States confronts a complex and evolving geostrategic landscape, demanding it modernize its strategic nuclear forces. Gen. Anthony J. Cotton, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, yesterday, outlined the stakes during a “fireside chat” at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. His remarks illuminated the critical role of nuclear deterrence and its supporting platforms, particularly the Nuclear Command, Control and Communications system, in securing U.S. strategic dominance and maintaining global stability.
In a conversation with Aerospace Security Project Director Kari Bingen, Cotton explained that contemporary threats are markedly different from those envisioned by strategic planners when nuclear modernization efforts began over a decade ago. He noted that these efforts — originally designed amid low-intensity conflicts like the war on terror — now require significant adaptation to address the increasingly aggressive postures of adversaries like Russia and China.
“The world has changed since nuclear modernization efforts began,” he said. “Our posture must align with today’s reality, where nuclear weapons are foundational to adversaries’ strategies.” Cotton’s observation reflects a shift in global power dynamics, where nuclear capabilities are not merely a deterrent but a central element of adversarial strategies to challenge American interests.
Russia’s evolving nuclear doctrine provides an example of these shifting dynamics. Recent statements from Russian President Vladimir Putin signal an expanded nuclear strategy, one that lowers the threshold for nuclear use and targets NATO alliances more directly. This shift aligns with broader Russian efforts to bully Western nations into withdrawing their support for Ukraine. Simultaneously, China continues its rapid expansion of nuclear capabilities while resisting international calls for transparency. Together, these adversaries present the Defense Department with an unprecedented “dual peer” challenge. The 2022 National Defense Strategy warns that simultaneous threats across multiple theaters could test the United States’ ability to respond effectively.
Amid these challenges, Cotton stressed the importance of readiness and adaptability in U.S. nuclear forces. The Nuclear Posture Review, a key component of national defense planning, highlights the urgency of modernizing the nuclear triad — bombers, submarines and intercontinental ballistic missiles — as well as the systems that ensure their cohesion and reliability. Cotton affirmed the NPR’s guidance, stating, “We cannot remain stagnant. Our modernization programs must include on-ramps and off-ramps to adjust to new challenges.”
Central to this modernization effort is the NC3 system, which serves as the backbone of strategic deterrence. The NC3 infrastructure ensures that the president can communicate securely with nuclear forces, providing unambiguous orders and maintaining control under any circumstances.
Cotton described the NC3 system as enabling three essential actions: deciding when an order is valid, ensuring the authenticity of that order and confirming when operations must cease. “NC3 enables us to decide, direct and confirm every step of a nuclear operation,” he explained. “It ensures connectivity with the president and validates every order as authentic.”
Despite its importance, the NC3 system remains a vulnerability due to its Cold War-era architecture. Cotton acknowledged that while the system has performed reliably for decades, it now faces significant challenges from evolving cyber threats, space-based vulnerabilities and its own aging infrastructure. While he agreed that modernization efforts must integrate advanced technologies — such as artificial intelligence — to process massive amounts of data efficiently, Cotton stressed that human oversight remains non-negotiable. “AI supports decision-making, but humans will always stay in control,” he declared.
The challenges of modernization extend beyond technology. Funding and integration represent obstacles as well. The NC3 enterprise encompasses more than 200 interconnected systems across multiple services and agencies, requiring seamless coordination to ensure operational continuity. Cotton highlighted the complexity of this task, noting that each element must align with the overarching strategy while maintaining flexibility to adapt to emerging threats. He emphasized the need for collaboration, “Modernization is about ensuring continuity, building a road map and aligning near-term actions with long-term goals.”
This complexity underscores the vital role of the NPR and the NDS in shaping modernization priorities. Both documents emphasize that America must sustain a safe, secure and effective nuclear deterrent to meet the challenges posed by adversaries. These assurances are particularly important for maintaining the credibility of extended deterrence commitments to allies like Japan and South Korea.
The modernization effort also comes with significant financial implications. Critics often cite the costs of nuclear modernization, projecting expenditures of over $1 trillion over the next 30 years. However, Cotton provided a clear perspective on this issue, arguing that modernization represents only 4% of the defense budget. “Modernizing our forces today costs far less than facing the consequences of unpreparedness,” he argued. The four star also emphasized that the investment covers all three legs of the nuclear triad as well as the NC3 system, making it essential for maintaining strategic stability.
As the United States navigates this modernization process, lessons from adversaries further underscore the importance of maintaining a credible deterrent. Russia’s saber-rattling during the Ukraine conflict and its continued nuclear threats reveals the coercive power of nuclear capabilities. And China’s growing arsenal highlights the need for the United States to adapt its strategies to deter both conventional and nuclear aggression. Cotton stressed that U.S. forces must be prepared to prevent conflicts from escalating to the nuclear level, stating that ” must ensure that no conventional conflict escalates into nuclear war.”
Cotton’s vision for STRATCOM reflects this urgency. As the command enters its “year of acceleration,” he outlined a forward-looking strategy to address immediate needs while building a foundation for long-term success. “We’ve laid the foundation for modernization and taken action to address immediate needs. Now we must accelerate progress to meet the challenges ahead,” he said. His approach includes fostering collaboration across agencies, leveraging technological advancements and engaging with allies to strengthen collective defense.
While he addressed immediate operational challenges, Cotton also called for a renewed focus on cultivating the next generation of strategic thinkers. He emphasized the importance of blending traditional nuclear theory with contemporary insights to address today’s unique threat environment. “Theoretical foundations remain important, but we need new thinking to address the interwoven dynamics of alliances, economic interdependence and technological advancements,” he explained. His remarks emphasize a multidisciplinary approach to strategic deterrence — one that accounts for the complexities of a multipolar nuclear age.
Cotton’s insights highlight the stakes of modernizing U.S. nuclear forces in an increasingly competitive and unpredictable world. The integration of advanced technologies, the reinforcement of NC3 infrastructure and the maintenance of strong alliances form the bedrock of this effort. At its core, modernization ensures that the Defense Department retains a credible deterrent capable of meeting any challenge. “Deterrence is about producing effects that meet the president’s objectives,” Cotton concluded. The United States stands at the crossroads of strategic competition. The modernization of its nuclear forces represents not just a defense imperative but a critical investment in global stability. Cotton’s vision provides a roadmap for navigating this high-stakes environment, ensuring peace and security even as global challenges and threats evolve. (Source: U.S. DoD)
19 Nov 24. Department of Defense Signs MOU to Expand Opportunities for Minority Business Enterprises. The Department of Defense (DoD) and the Department of Commerce’s Minority Business Development Agency (MBDA) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) aimed at increasing participation of minority business enterprises (MBEs) within the defense industrial base. This partnership reflects a shared commitment to increasing MBEs’ awareness of supply chain opportunities, fostering collaboration, capacity building, business development, and increasing awareness and engagement in defense-related procurement and development programs.
Under the agreement, the DoD and MBDA will leverage their networks, expertise, and resources to create pathways for MBEs to integrate into the defense supply chain. Key initiatives include providing access to specialized training, encouraging supplier diversity, and delivering capacity-building programs to enhance the capabilities of MBEs, and enable them to contribute more effectively to national security needs.
“This MOU represents a significant step in expanding access to defense contracts for minority business enterprises, ensuring that our supply chain is diverse, resilient, and capable of addressing the demands of our national defense,” said Dr. William LaPlante, Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment. “By working with MBDA, we can tap into a broader talent base of underrepresented businesses that bring unique perspectives and solutions, which ultimately contribute to a more robust and innovative industrial base.”
The MOU will also support MBDA’s mission to promote the growth and global competitiveness of MBEs, emphasizing areas such as technical assistance, strategic growth planning, and access to financing. The partnership aims to not only enhance equitable opportunities for MBEs in high-growth industries related to defense but also facilitate connections with DoD programs such as APEX Accelerators, Rapid Integrated Scalable Enterprise, and the Mentor-Protégé Program.
“A close working relationship between MBDA and the DoD will not only benefit minority business enterprises seeking to enter or expand in the defense industry, but it will strengthen our national security,” said Deputy Under Secretary of Commerce for Minority Business Development Eric Morrissette. “By diversifying our defense sector with minority business enterprises, we establish a broader hedge against our adversaries and deepen the scope of American competitiveness.”
The MOU outlines a strategic approach to ensure MBEs have an equitable opportunity to participate in the defense sector, focusing on the following objectives:
- Supply Chain Engagement: Encourage greater participation from MBEs in defense sector supply chains through collaboration between MBDA and DoD programming and capacity-building efforts
- Collaboration on Programming: Develop workshops and seminars on defense procurement and contracting, offering expert insights and technical support for MBEs entering defense markets
- Information Sharing: Utilize data-driven insights to help MBEs understand market demands and capitalize on defense procurement opportunities
- Training and Development: Provide MBDA’s network of programs, including Business Centers, and DoD’s APEX Accelerators with resources and guidance to assist MBEs in navigating defense procurement processes
This MOU signifies a shared vision between the DoD and MBDA to foster an inclusive defense industry by broadening opportunities for MBEs to play a pivotal role in U.S. national security. (Source: U.S. DoD)
19 Nov 24. Ukraine, Middle East conflicts eating into US air defense stocks, US admiral says. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are eating into U.S. stockpiles of air defenses, the top U.S. admiral overseeing American forces in the Asia-Pacific region said on Tuesday.
The admission by Admiral Sam Paparo could draw the attention of members of President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration, who are more skeptical of the war in Ukraine and who argue that President Joe Biden has failed to prepare for a potential conflict with China.
“With some of the Patriots that have been employed, some of the air-to-air missiles that have been employed, it’s now eating into stocks and to say otherwise would be dishonest,” Paparo, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said during an event.
Paparo said the expenditure of U.S. air defenses “imposes costs on the readiness” of the United States to respond in the Asia-Pacific, particularly given that China is the most capable adversary in the world.
Biden’s administration has been steadily arming Ukraine and Israel with its most sophisticated air defenses. The U.S. Navy has been directly defending shipping in the Red Sea in the face of missile and drone attacks from Houthi rebels in Yemen. (Source: Reuters)
15 Nov 24. DOD Sends Report to Congress on the Nuclear Weapons Employment Strategy of the United States. Yesterday, the Secretary of Defense submitted an unclassified report to Congress describing the nuclear employment strategy of the United States. The 491 Report, submitted in accordance with 10 U.S.C. Section 491, reflects an unclassified description of Presidential nuclear employment Guidance issued by President Biden earlier this year. The Secretary submitted the report in anticipation of issuing his classified implementation guidance to the Department and to the Joint Force.
The 491 Report describes, in an unclassified format, changes from previous presidential employment guidance. Updating U.S. nuclear employment guidance is routine and critical to ensuring that U.S. nuclear forces, plans, and posture evolve to maintain the United States’ ability to deter adversaries, assure allies and partners, and achieve national objectives if deterrence fails.
The updated Guidance accounts for the new deterrence challenges posed by the growth, modernization, and increasing diversity of potential adversaries’ nuclear arsenals. It builds on the findings of the 2022 National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review, and directly informs development of nuclear employment options for consideration by the President in extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States and its allies and partners.
The Guidance also directs that the United States plan to deter multiple nuclear-armed adversaries simultaneously; requires the integration of non-nuclear capabilities where feasible to support the nuclear deterrence mission; stresses the importance of escalation management in U.S. planning for responding to limited nuclear attack or high-consequence non-nuclear strategic attack; and enables deeper consultation, coordination, and combined planning with allies and partners in order to strengthen U.S. extended deterrence commitments.
The 491 Report can be found here.
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://media.defense.gov/2024/Nov/15/2003584623/-1/-1/1/REPORT-ON-THE-NUCLEAR-EMPLOYMENT-STRATEGY-OF-THE-UNITED-STATES.PDF (Source: U.S. DoD)
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