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01 Dec 23. Defense Officials Report Progress on Replicator Initiative. The Defense Department is currently making significant progress in accelerating the delivery of innovative capabilities to the warfighter as part of the recently announced Replicator initiative, senior officials with the Defense Innovation Unit said today.
Speaking from the DIU campus in Mountain View, California, DIU Director Doug Beck said officials from across the department have been keenly focused on aligning capabilities with operational needs as DOD moves forward with the first iteration of Replicator.
“This is a whole-of-department effort,” Beck said, adding that capturing input from across the services and combatant commands is critical to ensuring the department delivers capabilities that meet the objective Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks identified as part of the effort.
“That whole-of-department team must be central and is central to that process from the beginning and will have to be throughout so that we can both deliver that capability and also build the new muscle to do this well,” he said.
Hicks unveiled the Replicator initiative in August.
The first iteration of the initiative is focused on fielding thousands of autonomous systems across multiple domains within the next 18-to-24 months, as part of the Pentagon’s strategy to counter China’s rapid armed forces buildup.
Hicks said the Replicator initiative will prioritize the fielding of “attritable” capabilities — platforms that are unmanned and built affordably, allowing commanders to tolerate a higher degree of risk in employing them.
Through the initiative, the U.S. will augment its manufacturing and mobilization capabilities “with our real comparative advantage, which is the innovation and spirit of our people,” she said.
DIU, the department’s premier organization for accelerating the adoption of commercial technology throughout the military, has played a central role in making Replicator a reality.
DOD has recently established the Deputy’s Innovation Steering Group to bring together leaders from across the department to break down systemic barriers that impede innovation.
Beck chairs the Defense Innovation Working Group aligned with the steering group and is charged with driving the process to accelerate technology and to make the process repeatable.
“Our role here at DIU is to catalyze that process and also, of course, to help more directly in ways that DIU is built to do, to accelerate the leverage of commercial tech at the speed of innovation into that process,” Beck said.
Aditi Kumar, DIU’s deputy director of strategy, policy and national security partnerships, said that since Replicator was formally announced, the steering group has focused on crisply defining the warfighters’ needs.
“In doing that, we worked very closely with to define exactly what the operational needs are in theater so that everything that we’re delivering with this first instantiation of Replicator is relevant to the warfighter,” she said. “In so doing, we have also pulled in lessons learned from other combatant commands, including lessons learned in the theater.”
Kumar said the department is now in the process of looking across its portfolio to identify capabilities that meet those needs that can be considered as part of the Replicator initiative.
“One of the reasons that DIU is in this role is in addition to looking at the programs already in the department’s pipeline that fit the mission need, we’re obviously also looking at the gaps,” she said. “Those gaps may be by domain area, they may be in enabling infrastructure, they may be very specific capabilities.
“This is where we’re, looking at leveraging our solicitations process to bring in new entrants, and you will see that process play out here in the next few months as we go out to industry,” she said.
DIU plans to post solicitations related to Replicator in December. The initial solicitations will likely be for new uncrewed aerial systems capabilities not currently under contract.
The organization also plans to host a technology summit focused on Replicator in the Washington, D.C., area in early 2024 to provide companies with more detail about opportunities for how systems could support warfighter needs. (Source: U.S. DoD)
30 Nov 23. US lawmakers seek probe of Chinese drone maker Autel Robotics. A bipartisan group of 11 U.S. House lawmakers on Thursday asked the Biden administration to investigate and potentially sanction Chinese drone maker Autel Robotics, citing national security concerns.
The letter, signed by House China select committee chair Mike Gallagher, a Republican, and the panel’s top Democrat, Raja Krishnamoorthi, asked the Commerce, Defense and Treasury departments to investigate Autel Robotics, whose parent company is Autel Intelligent Technology (688208.SS).
The letter said Autel Robotics is openly affiliated with China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) “and poses a direct threat to U.S. national security as local law enforcement and state and local governments are purchasing and operating Autel drones, potentially exposing sensitive data across the country.”
The Pentagon said it would respond to the lawmakers’ letter. Commerce and Treasury did not immediately comment. Autel could not immediately be reached for comment.
Another signer of the letter, Republican Representative Elise Stefanik, said, “Autel drones made in Communist China present an unacceptable national security risk and should not be allowed to operate in America.”
The Commerce Department in 2020 imposed export restrictions on China-based drone manufacturer DJI, accusing it of complicity in the oppression of China’s Uyghur minority and helping the military.
The lawmakers asked if Autel should face similar restrictions, citing concerns that Autel technology was used in Xinjiang, and said the company “further appears to be potentially supporting Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.”
Gallagher and Krishnamoorthi earlier this month introduced legislation seeking to ban the U.S. government from buying any Chinese drones.
Congress in 2019 banned the Pentagon from buying or using drones and components manufactured in China.
The U.S. government has taken other actions to limit Chinese-made drone purchases.
The U.S. Interior Department in January 2020 said it was grounding its fleet of about 800 Chinese-made drones after halting additional purchases of such drones by the agency.
Over 50% of drones sold in the United States are made by DJI, and they are the most popular drones in use by public safety agencies, Republican lawmakers said earlier this year. (Source: Reuters)
30 Nov 23. Statement by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on the Passing of Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. I am deeply saddened by the passing of former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger at the age of 100. He was the rare scholar turned strategist, and he has been widely hailed as one of our most powerful and influential secretaries of state.
Dr. Kissinger led an extraordinary American life. In 1938, his parents fled virulent anti-Semitism in Hitler’s Germany and began anew in New York City. This young refugee from Nazi Germany became the first and only American to simultaneously serve as both Secretary of State and Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs.
Dr. Kissinger’s involvement with the Department of Defense spanned from his service in the U.S. Army during World War II, when he was awarded a Bronze Star, to sitting on the Defense Policy Board late in his long life. In 2016, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter awarded Dr. Kissinger the Department’s Distinguished Public Service Award, our highest civilian honor. At that ceremony, Secretary Carter noted that “Henry Kissinger has demonstrated to each of us how serious strategic thinking and perspective can deliver pragmatic solutions to seemingly intractable problems.”
Dr. Kissinger served two Presidents and offered counsel to 10 more. I sought his geopolitical perspective repeatedly over the course of my career and always found our exchanges thought-provoking. On behalf of the Department of Defense, I extend my deep condolences to his wife Nancy, his children Elizabeth and David, and the entire Kissinger family. (Source: U.S. DoD)
28 Nov 23. US Army Launches 15-Year Modernization of its Organic Industrial Base. After more than two years of strategic planning, the Army’s Organic Industrial Base finds itself at the forefront of modernization as it begins execution of its 15-year Modernization Implementation Plan.
Following the fiscal year 2024 kickoff, a biannual war game held Nov. 14-16 at Redstone Arsenal including leaders around the Army underlined the importance of execution across the OIB.
“The Army is driving the OIB Modernization plan,” Army Materiel Command’s top civilian Marion Whicker said about the OIB MIP which will modernize facilities, processes and the workforce to bring the OIB into the 21st century. “Success comes from honoring your commitments; we had this plan approved very quickly because the Army put forth a developed strategy and we honored our commitments.”
The OIB is the backbone of the Army’s sustainment capabilities, responsible for maintaining, repairing and overhauling equipment critical to mission success. Some modernization projects started ahead of the planned FY24 start due to additional funding the Army received connected to ammunition production, including efforts to accelerate 155 mm production. With that money, the Army’s artillery production doubled in the last year with the service currently producing 28,000 155-millimeter howitzer rounds a month.
“Last year we had requests asking what money do you need, and because we were ready to execute, we received that additional money,” Whicker said. “That is because we had a plan. We were able to execute quickly, and the Army was able to tell Congress what output we were creating.”
Throughout this year, the Army expanded production at these facilities including Scranton Army Ammunition Plant, Iowa Army Ammunition Plant, Radford Army Ammunition Plant and the Holston Army Ammunition Plant. By constructing new buildings, installing new equipment and improving automation, these upgrades helped double the Army’s artillery production rate.
“It is important that we do this meeting twice a year so we don’t lose focus and because the world changes that quickly,” said Whicker who underlined that the sites are ready to execute when they receive funding. “AMC’s OIB Modernization Task Force are the integrators of this plan. You — the LCMCs — are the executors, and there needs to be no daylight between the two.”
The war game was the sixth hosted by AMC and the largest group to attend the discussion, said Stephanie Hoaglin, AMC OIB Modernization Task Force director.
“The visibility of what we are doing here continues to grow and we continue to find additional stakeholders that we need to involve in our planning process as well,” Hoaglin said. (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ US Army)
26 Nov 23. Pentagon’s ‘Replicator’ gambit may speed decisions on lethal autonomy. The Longshot, an air-launched unmanned aircraft that General Atomics is developing with the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency for use in tandem with piloted Air Force jets, is displayed at the Air & Space Forces Association Air, Space & Cyber Conference, Wednesday, Sept. 13, 2023 in Oxon Hill, Md. Pentagon planners envision using such drones in “human-machine teaming” to overwhelm an adversary. But to be fielded, developers will need to prove the AI tech is reliable and trustworthy enough. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Artificial intelligence employed by the U.S. military has piloted pint-sized surveillance drones in special operations forces’ missions and helped Ukraine in its war against Russia. It tracks soldiers’ fitness, predicts when Air Force planes need maintenance and helps keep tabs on rivals in space.
Now, the Pentagon is intent on fielding multiple thousands of relatively inexpensive, expendable AI-enabled autonomous vehicles by 2026 to keep pace with China. The ambitious initiative — dubbed Replicator — seeks to “galvanize progress in the too-slow shift of U.S. military innovation to leverage platforms that are small, smart, cheap, and many,” Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks said in August.
While its funding is uncertain and details vague, Replicator is expected to accelerate hard decisions on what AI tech is mature and trustworthy enough to deploy – including on weaponized systems.
There is little dispute among scientists, industry experts and Pentagon officials that the U.S. will within the next few years have fully autonomous lethal weapons. And though officials insist humans will always be in control, experts say advances in data-processing speed and machine-to-machine communications will inevitably relegate people to supervisory roles.
That’s especially true if, as expected, lethal weapons are deployed en masse in drone swarms. Many countries are working on them — and neither China, Russia, Iran, India or Pakistan have signed a U.S.-initiated pledge to use military AI responsibly.
The 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment and the Threat Systems Management Office operate a swarm of 40 drones to test the rotational units capabilities at the National Training Center on May 8th, 2019. (Pvt. 2nd Class James Newsome/Army)
It’s unclear if the Pentagon is currently formally assessing any fully autonomous lethal weapons system for deployment, as required by a 2012 directive. A Pentagon spokeswoman would not say.
Replicator highlights immense technological and personnel challenges for Pentagon procurement and development as the AI revolution promises to transform how wars are fought.
“The Department of Defense is struggling to adopt the AI developments from the last machine-learning breakthrough,” said Gregory Allen, a former top Pentagon AI official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
The Pentagon’s portfolio boasts more than 800 AI-related unclassified projects, much still in testing. Typically, machine-learning and neural networks are helping humans gain insights and create efficiencies.
“The AI that we’ve got in the Department of Defense right now is heavily leveraged and augments people,” said Missy Cummings, director of George Mason University’s robotics center and a former Navy fighter pilot.” “There’s no AI running around on its own. People are using it to try to understand the fog of war better.”
Space, war’s new frontier
One domain where AI-assisted tools are tracking potential threats is space, the latest frontier in military competition.
China envisions using AI, including on satellites, to “make decisions on who is and isn’t an adversary,” U.S. Space Force chief technology and innovation officer Lisa Costa, told an online conference this month.
The U.S. aims to keep pace.
An operational prototype called Machina used by Space Force keeps tabs autonomously on more than 40,000 objects in space, orchestrating thousands of data collections nightly with a global telescope network.
Machina’s algorithms marshal telescope sensors. Computer vision and large language models tell them what objects to track. And AI choreographs drawing instantly on astrodynamics and physics datasets, Col. Wallace ‘Rhet’ Turnbull of Space Systems Command told a conference in August.
Another AI project at Space Force analyzes radar data to detect imminent adversary missile launches, he said.
Maintaining planes and soldiers
Elsewhere, AI’s predictive powers help the Air Force keep its fleet aloft, anticipating the maintenance needs of more than 2,600 aircraft including B-1 bombers and Blackhawk helicopters.
Machine-learning models identify possible failures dozens of hours before they happen, said Tom Siebel, CEO of Silicon Valley-based C3 AI, which has the contract. C3′s tech also models the trajectories of missiles for the the U.S. Missile Defense Agency and identifies insider threats in the federal workforce for the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency.
Among health-related efforts is a pilot project tracking the fitness of the Army’s entire Third Infantry Division — more than 13,000 soldiers. Predictive modeling and AI help reduce injuries and increase performance, said Maj. Matt Visser.
In Ukraine, AI provided by the Pentagon and its NATO allies helps thwart Russian aggression.
NATO allies share intelligence from data gathered by satellites, drones and humans, some aggregated with software from U.S. contractor Palantir. Some data comes from Maven, the Pentagon’s pathfinding AI project now mostly managed by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, say officials including retired Air Force Gen. Jack Shanahan, the inaugural Pentagon AI director,
Maven began in 2017 as an effort to process video from drones in the Middle East – spurred by U.S. Special Operations forces fighting ISIS and al-Qaeda — and now aggregates and analyzes a wide array of sensor- and human-derived data.
AI has also helped the U.S.-created Security Assistance Group-Ukraine help organize logistics for military assistance from a coalition of 40 countries, Pentagon officials say.
All-Domain Command and Control
To survive on the battlefield these days, military units must be small, mostly invisible and move quickly because exponentially growing networks of sensors let anyone “see anywhere on the globe at any moment,” then-Joint Chiefs chairman Gen. Mark Milley observed in a June speech. “And what you can see, you can shoot.”
To more quickly connect combatants, the Pentagon has prioritized the development of intertwined battle networks — called Joint All-Domain Command and Control — to automate the processing of optical, infrared, radar and other data across the armed services. But the challenge is huge and fraught with bureaucracy.
Christian Brose, a former Senate Armed Services Committee staff director now at the defense tech firm Anduril, is among military reform advocates who nevertheless believe they “may be winning here to a certain extent.”
“The argument may be less about whether this is the right thing to do, and increasingly more about how do we actually do it — and on the rapid timelines required,” he said. Brose’s 2020 book, “The Kill Chain,” argues for urgent retooling to match China in the race to develop smarter and cheaper networked weapons systems.
Anduril Industries’ Ghost aircraft, an uncrewed reconnaissance and security aircraft, has been used in Ukraine and other combat areas, and the company recently announced an enhanced version dubbed Ghost-X. The Air Force has now awarded Anduril $8 m in contracts to continue refining the Ghost aircrafts’ autonomous capabilities. (Anduril Industries)
To that end, the U.S. military is hard at work on “human-machine teaming.” Dozens of uncrewed air and sea vehicles currently keep tabs on Iranian activity. U.S. Marines and Special Forces also use Anduril’s autonomous Ghost mini-copter, sensor towers and counter-drone tech to protect American forces.
Industry advances in computer vision have been essential. Shield AI lets drones operate without GPS, communications or even remote pilots. It’s the key to its Nova, a quadcopter, which U.S. special operations units have used in conflict areas to scout buildings.
On the horizon: The Air Force’s “loyal wingman” program intends to pair piloted aircraft with autonomous ones. An F-16 pilot might, for instance, send out drones to scout, draw enemy fire or attack targets. Air Force leaders are aiming for a debut later this decade.
The race to full autonomy
The “loyal wingman” timeline doesn’t quite mesh with Replicator’s, which many consider overly ambitious. The Pentagon’s vagueness on Replicator, meantime, may partly intend to keep rivals guessing, though planners may also still be feeling their way on feature and mission goals, said Paul Scharre, a military AI expert and author of “Four Battlegrounds.”
Anduril and Shield AI, each backed by hundreds of ms in venture capital funding, are among companies vying for contracts.
Nathan Michael, chief technology officer at Shield AI, estimates they will have an autonomous swarm of at least three uncrewed aircraft ready in a year using its V-BAT aerial drone. The U.S. military currently uses the V-BAT — without an AI mind — on Navy ships, on counter-drug missions and in support of Marine Expeditionary Units, the company says.
It will take some time before larger swarms can be reliably fielded, Michael said. “Everything is crawl, walk, run — unless you’re setting yourself up for failure.”
Brandon Tseng, president and co-founder of Shield AI, is shown Monday, Sept. 11, 2023, at the Air, Space, Cyber Conference at National Harbor, Maryland. Shield AI and competitor Anduril are each backed by hundreds of ms in venture capital funding. Both have a software-first approach in their military autonomy product development and have obtained uncrewed drones in acquisitions or partnered with aircraft makers. (AP Photo/Frank Bajak)
The only weapons systems that Shanahan, the inaugural Pentagon AI chief, currently trusts to operate autonomously are wholly defensive, like Phalanx anti-missile systems on ships. He worries less about autonomous weapons making decisions on their own than about systems that don’t work as advertised or kill noncombatants or friendly forces.
The department’s current chief digital and AI officer Craig Martell is determined not to let that happen.
“Regardless of the autonomy of the system, there will always be a responsible agent that understands the limitations of the system, has trained well with the system, has justified confidence of when and where it’s deployable — and will always take the responsibility,” said Martell, who previously headed machine-learning at LinkedIn and Lyft. “That will never not be the case.”
As to when AI will be reliable enough for lethal autonomy, Martell said it makes no sense to generalize. For example, Martell trusts his car’s adaptive cruise control but not the tech that’s supposed to keep it from changing lanes. “As the responsible agent, I would not deploy that except in very constrained situations,” he said. “Now extrapolate that to the military.”
Martell’s office is evaluating potential generative AI use cases – it has a special task force for that – but focuses more on testing and evaluating AI in development.
One urgent challenge, says Jane Pinelis, chief AI engineer at Johns Hopkins University’s Applied Physics Lab and former chief of AI assurance in Martell’s office, is recruiting and retaining the talent needed to test AI tech. The Pentagon can’t compete on salaries. Computer science PhDs with AI-related skills can earn more than the military’s top-ranking generals and admirals.
Testing and evaluation standards are also immature, a recent National Academy of Sciences report on Air Force AI highlighted.
Might that mean the U.S. one day fielding under duress autonomous weapons that don’t fully pass muster?
“We are still operating under the assumption that we have time to do this as rigorously and as diligently as possible,” said Pinelis. “I think if we’re less than ready and it’s time to take action, somebody is going to be forced to make a decision.” (Source: C4ISR & Networks)
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