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04 Feb 26. Germany: Sabotage of naval vessel reflects sustained Russian hybrid threats. On 3 February, the Hamburg Public Prosecutor’s Office arrested two men suspected of sabotaging at least one German naval vessel in the Port of Hamburg (Hamburg city state) in 2025. The authorities detained a 37-year-old Romanian national in Hamburg and a 54-year-old Greek national in Greece; both were port workers. Three properties were also searched in Hamburg, Greece and Romania. The detainees reportedly targeted a corvette – the smallest class of warship – by pouring 20kg of gravel into the engine, puncturing water lines, removing fuel caps and disabling safety switches. The damage was discovered before the vessel was put into service. Investigations into both men’s involvement in other suspected sabotage actions are ongoing; this includes the discovery of metal shavings in the ship drive of the Emden (a K130 Braunschweig-class corvette) reported in February 2025. Although the motivation remains unconfirmed, we assess that Russia has the intent and capability to have orchestrated the incident. Given Germany’s role as the largest donor to Ukraine among European states, we assess that there will be a sustained risk of sporadic Russian sabotage operations targeting German military and critical infrastructure installations throughout 2026. (Source: Reuters)
03 Feb 26. Germany eyes lasers, spy satellites in military space spending splurge.
- Summary
- Germany plans SATCOM Stage 4 with over 100 satellites for secure communications
- Focus on non-kinetic options like jamming and lasers to disrupt hostile satellites
- Germany prioritising domestic and European suppliers for military space programme
Germany is weighing investments ranging from spy satellites and space planes to offensive lasers under a 35bn euro ($41bn) military space spending plan aimed at countering growing threats from Russia and China in orbit, the country’s space commander said. Germany will build an encrypted military constellation of more than 100 satellites, known as SATCOM Stage 4, over the next few years, the head of German Space Command Michael Traut told Reuters on the sidelines of a space event ahead of the Singapore Airshow. He said the network would mirror the model used by the U.S. Space Development Agency, a Pentagon unit that deploys low-Earth-orbit satellites for communications and missile tracking. Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE) is in talks with German satellite maker OHB (OHBG.DE) about a joint bid for an unnamed German military satellite project, Reuters reported last week. The potential deal comes as Europe’s top three space firms – Airbus (AIR.PA) , Thales (TCFP.PA) and Leonardo (LDOF.MI) – are seeking to build a European satellite communications alternative to Elon Musk’s Starlink. Traut said Germany’s investment in military space architecture reflected a sharply more contested space environment since Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Berlin and its European allies, he said, needed to bolster their deterrence posture by investing not only in secure communications but also in capabilities that could hinder or disable hostile space systems.
“(We need to) improve our deterrence posture in space, since space has become an operational or even warfighting domain, and we are perfectly aware that our systems, our space capabilities, need to be protected and defended,” Traut said.
INSPECTOR SATELLITES AND LASERS
Germany will channel funding into intelligence‑gathering satellites, sensors and systems designed to disrupt adversary spacecraft, including lasers and equipment capable of targeting ground-based infrastructure, Traut said. He added that Germany would prioritise small and large domestic and European suppliers for the programme. Traut emphasised Germany would not field destructive weapons in orbit that could generate debris, but said a range of non-kinetic options existed to disrupt hostile satellites, including jamming, lasers and actions against ground control stations. He also pointed to so-called inspector satellites — small spacecraft capable of maneuvering close to other satellites — which he said Russia and China had already deployed.
“There is a broad range of possible effects in the electromagnetic spectrum, in the optical, in the laser spectrum, and even some active physical things like inspector satellites,” he said.
“You could even go after ground segments of a space system in order to deny that system to your adversary or to tell him, ‘If you do something to us in space, we might do something to you in other domains as well.’” ($1 = 0.8477 euros) (Source: Reuters)
03 Feb 26. Germany-Russia: Russian operations to procure military-grade technology will likely persist. On 2 February, Germany’s Federal Prosecutor’s Office ordered raids targeting a network of companies suspected of supplying Russia’s arms industry with EU-sanctioned goods. The authorities searched properties across Lübeck and Ostholstein (both Schleswig-Holstein state), Frankfurt (Hesse state), Nuremberg (Bavaria state) and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state. A German-Ukrainian national, two German nationals and two German-Russian nationals were arrested and EUR 30m (approximately USD 35m) in assets was seized. The investigations centred on a Lübeck-based trading company founded in March 2022 by a German‑Russian businessman, ‘Nikita S’ (one of the detainees), which is accused of leading the illegal procurement network. The network allegedly facilitated 16,000 shipments of embargoed items worth approximately EUR 30 m (USD 35 m) to at least 24 sanctioned Russian arms companies. The development affirms an assessment made by Germany’s domestic intelligence service (BfV) that Russia has increased its efforts to procure military-grade technology from German companies. These efforts will almost certainly persist over the coming year, underscoring the importance of due diligence for firms operating in the dual-use good industries. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Feb 26. Baltic States agree to move capabilities unrestricted across borders.
They hope the Military Mobility Area will present an overture for a wider “military Schengen zone” across Europe
- Defence ministers for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania met in Tallinn to pursue the creation of a Military Mobility Area on Nato’s Eastern Flank
- This model will allow the flow of military assets across borders, unrestircted by bureaucratic niceities
- But there is a loftier goal in mind: to expand the Area to the rest of Europe, which will prove challenging as military mobility remains deficient despite EU and Nato ambitions
Baltic defence leaders gathered in Tallinn at the end of January to discuss the security of Nato’s Eastern Flank, with a major part of the proceedings reaching agreement on the creation of a Military Mobility Area (MMA) spanning the three countries. The MMA will see the military capabilities of one nation flow unrestricted among the territories of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The concept will allow for consolidation of resources to areas with the greatest need for security.
“If necessary, Lithuania’s military assets will be able to move freely towards Riga, Estonia’s artillery will support Vilnius, Latvian capabilities will back up Tallinn, and vice versa,” clarified Robertas Kaunas, Lithuania’s Minister of National Defence.
Despite Russian resources and manpower being sustainably expended in its war in Ukraine, the Baltic States also pose a major vulnerability to Russian strategic ambitions in a prospective conflict with Nato, which defence experts anticipate in the coming years. If Russia engages the Baltic States, it would perceive them as a single adversary, and their strategy would reflect this as they seek to cut them off from Nato allies via the Suwalki Gap and at sea. For this reason, Baltic military capabilities ought to muster a unified and agile response, and the creation of an MMA removes the bureaucratic niceties that impede a collective force posture.
“Every hour is critical in a crisis, we cannot let the walls of bureaucracy undercut our defence,” Kaunas discerned.
The trio also alluded to the possibility of extending this military corridor to the rest of Europe to form what has been called a “military Schengen” zone.
This model is already being pursued to integrate the Continental and Nordic corridors but to little effect. While the endeavour is achievable among the three Baltic States, since it is an existential issue, it will prove far more difficult across continental Europe. A large problem comes down to differences in technical infrastructure specifications. For example, there is only one road that connects Poland and Lithuania and their railway gauges are different, which has led to lengthy transport delays. About a year ago, the European Court of Auditors famously remarked that “tanks from one EU country cannot move through another if they are heavier than road traffic regulations allow.” There is more besides; the EU has identified 500 priority “hotspot [infrastructure] projects” that need attention. Still, it is hoped that recent EU protocols will help to remedy the problem, which stems from years of complacency. The €150bn Security Action for Europe (SAFE) loan instrument will help member states finance the implementation of these costly infrastructure standards. Notably, there is more to military mobility than land transportation, as the European Investment Bank listed strategic lift capabilities alongside reinforcing bridges and upgrading railways. Likewise, a leading airpower specialist at the Royal United Services Institute in London, Justin Bronk, reminded Airforce Technology in October last year that “Europe is covered in tarmac” to enable mobility, a logistical legacy of the Second World War. (Source: army-technology.com)
30 Jan 26. European crisis fund worth over $500bn could be used for defence, says ESM chief.
- European Stability Mechanism was set up to stem euro debt crisis
- ESM’s chief says it could lend for defence spending
- Gramegna: Use ‘full potential’ of ESM
- European countries pushed to boost defence outlays in response to Russian invasion of Ukraine
A European crisis fund with more than 430bn euros ($514bn) of firepower could lend money to countries for defence, the head of the European Stability Mechanism told Reuters, as the bloc scrambles to reinforce its military. Pierre Gramegna, managing director of the European Stability Mechanism, said the ESM could give credit lines for defence and would not demand stringent economic reform in return, in part to dispel any stigma that might arise from asking the emergency euro zone fund for money.
“In these times of geopolitical turmoil, which have triggered higher expenditure, defence costs for all countries, we must use the full potential of the ESM,” said Gramegna.
He pointed to the use of credit lines for defence for countries in good financial health but whose budgets are stretched, in particular smaller euro zone states.
“We have instruments,” he said. “It is in the best interests of Europe … to use the full potential.”
“It is obvious that the relationship between Europe and the United States is becoming more and more bumpy.”
REPURPOSING DEBT CRISIS FUND
Any such financial support would be symbolically important, repurposing a fund set up at the height of the euro zone debt crisis to stave off the collapse of national economies, banks and shore up the currency. U.S. President Donald Trump’s open hostility towards Europe is forcing its political leaders to scour for alternative means of defending the region against Russian aggression. Gramegna’s remarks suggest a willingness to use the vast European reserve to reinforce euro zone countries, in particular smaller Baltic nations bordering Russia, although loans first need to be signed off by the euro zone nations backing the ESM. Only countries in the euro zone could get the loans, excluding those who do not use the currency, such as Poland. The ESM makes no explicit mention of defence in its mission and any such shift would require the blessing of member states, including from militarily neutral countries like Austria, Cyprus, Malta or Ireland. Europe’s attempts to boost its defences, four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, have taken on greater urgency since Trump threatened trade tariffs on countries that rejected his claim on Greenland, a Danish territory. Gramegna hinted at a potential role for the ESM, which was set up during the debt crisis to lend to countries such as Greece but has since become largely redundant.
“It is one of our instruments,” he said, referring to using so-called precautionary credit lines for defence. “It’s available. We need to rediscover the potential of that instrument.”
“You need to guarantee that this facility … has to be used for defence expenditure,” he said, adding that it would not come with draconian terms. “The whole goal here is to avoid that this type of tool is combined with restructuring of the economy.”
‘DEFENCE SUPPORT LINE’
His comments breathe fresh life into a “defence support line” earlier suggested by former Italian prime minister Enrico Letta to lend up to 2% of a country’s economic output at low interest rates for defence.
The proposal faces hurdles, however.
“When the euro area countries designed the ESM, they never intended it to be available for everyday use,” said Rebecca Christie of Brussels-based think tank Bruegel.
“Adding defence would be powerful. But Germany would need to make a complete about-face on how the fund can be used,” she said, referring to Europe’s largest economy.
Gramegna’s proposal mirrors an ESM crisis support scheme worth up to 240 bn euros set up during the COVID pandemic to help countries spend on healthcare. That ultimately remained unused. The Baltic states of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia could stand to benefit. They have almost quadrupled spending on defence since Russia invaded Ukraine to roughly 5% of their economic output, borrowing heavily to cover the bill. Those countries, which border Russia and its close ally Belarus, have suffered an increasing number of sabotage attacks that law enforcement agencies blame on Russia. They borrowed bns of euros from the EU’s oversubscribed SAFE loans scheme for defence projects, where the EU jointly borrows money on the market to lend it on at cost to EU governments for defence. ESM support would work similarly. If set up like the pandemic support, the loans would have considerable weight across the EU. Estonia had a gross domestic product of roughly 40 bn euros in 2024 – 2% of that would be less than 1 bn euros. Gramegna said countries could make “collective requests”, which would avoid any stigma attached to asking for assistance from the ESM. “The impetus has to come from the member countries,” he said. (Source: Reuters)
01 Feb 26. UK wants closer EU defence ties with potential bid to join new SAFE fund. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said his government will consider applying to join a second possible multi-bn-euro European Union fund for defence projects as his ministers prepare for talks with EU counterparts this week. The European Commission is considering launching a second edition of its SAFE loans scheme as Europe seeks to bolster its defences due to growing fears of Russia and doubts about U.S. security commitments to Europe under President Donald Trump. A British plan to join the original 150bn-euro ($177bn) SAFE fund broke down in November after Starmer’s government refused to pay a financial contribution to join, representing a setback for a post-Brexit reset of relations. Asked if Britain would seek to join a new version of SAFE, Starmer said Europe needed to do more to rearm.
“That should require us to look at schemes like SAFE and others to see whether there is a way in which we can work more closely together,” he told reporters on his way to China last week. The comments were scheduled for release on Sunday.
“Whether it’s SAFE or other initiatives, it makes good sense for Europe in the widest sense of the word – which is the EU plus other European countries – to work more closely together.”
European Union Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic and other EU officials are due in London for talks this week. Starmer has tried to work more closely with the EU and remove some post-Brexit trade barriers in contrast to the rancorous relations between previous Conservative governments and the EU as they negotiated Britain’s departure from the bloc, which was completed in 2020. He has also taken a leading role in co-ordinating European support for Ukraine. Under the SAFE scheme, the EU jointly borrowed money on financial markets to lend to countries in the bloc for defence projects. Asked about recent criticism from Nigel Farage, whose Reform UK party is leading in the polls, who said the governing Labour government was moving too close to the EU, Starmer said the Brexit campaigner had repeatedly misled the public. “I wouldn’t listen too much to what Nigel Farage has to say about this,” Starmer said. ($1 = 0.8440 euros) (Source: Reuters)
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