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09 Jan 26. UK: Defence funding shortfall will likely drive uncertainty for defence sector, undermine readiness. On 8 January, The Times reported that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) allegedly faces a GBP 28bn (USD 37.5bn) shortfall in funding between 2026 and 2030. Despite government plans to increase defence spending, MoD’s assessments in 2025 reportedly indicated that higher inflation, troop pay rises and nuclear deterrence costs have contributed to a major financing gap. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has ordered defence officials to rework the defence investment plan (DIP), which determines the implementation of the UK’s strategic defence review (SDR). The DIP’s delayed publication will highly likely cause business planning uncertainty for defence and defence-related sectors in the coming months. Amid preparations by senior military officials for cuts and/or delays in key defence programmes, the armed forces’ fiscal situation will likely undermine its ability to implement the government’s stated defence aims effectively. This includes enhancing military readiness to counter increasing Russian aggression and Starmer’s pledge to deploy troops to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal with Russia. However, we assess that the latter pledge faces considerable hurdles and that a peace deal is ultimately unlikely in the short-to-medium term. (Source: Sibylline)
08 Jan 26. Denmark-Greenland: Crisis meeting highlights tensions ahead of meeting with US secretary of state. On 7 January, Danish media outlet DR reported that a 6 January meeting between Denmark and Greenland to co-ordinate a response to US pressure had escalated into a dispute. Greenland’s Foreign and Security Policy Committee chair Pipaluk Lynge-Rasmussen reportedly accused Denmark of neo-colonialism after Greenlandic representatives were not invited to a second meeting in the Danish capital Copenhagen to discuss Danish-US relations. Greenland has demanded direct negotiations with the US (i.e. without Danish involvement), which would conflict with the constitution. The confrontation indicates that renewed US efforts to gain control of the semi-autonomous Danish territory have reignited historic tensions between Denmark and Greenland ahead of next week’s meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. We assess that there is a realistic possibility the rift could increase Greenlandic support for an independence referendum in 2026; opinion polls taken in 2025 already indicated 56% of Greenlanders would vote in favour. Greenland’s independence would likely increase acquisition opportunities for the US, including through a Compact of Free Association (COFA). However, we assess that this remains a long-term prospect. (Source: Sibylline)
08 Jan 26. Royal Marines expand Arctic operations with year-round UK-Norway deployments. The two nations are boosting joint capabilities with new weapons, undersea systems, autonomous vehicles, and shared Type 26 frigates.
The UK and Norway have expanded joint military operations in the Arctic Circle, allowing Royal Marines to conduct year-round deployments in Norway following the recent Lunna House agreement.
The arrangement strengthens UK commitments to NATO’s northern flank, with the Commando Force set to operate across Norway’s challenging terrain and emphasises readiness for potential conflict in the region.
The Royal Marines will continue to lead British activities in the area, a statement from the Royal Navy said.
Last year, the UK established Camp Viking near Øverbygd as a permanent base for these activities, facilitating the stationing of 1,500 personnel and equipment including all-terrain vehicles and helicopters from Commando Helicopter Force.
These deployments will see UK forces operating alongside Norwegian troops, as well as marines from the Netherlands.
The collaboration will culminate in Exercise Cold Response in 2026, which is the largest military exercise hosted by Norway and aims to demonstrate NATO’s collective operational strength across fjords and mountain environments.
In addition to ongoing deployments, both the UK and Norway are investing in military capabilities such as uncrewed mine-hunting systems, undersea warfare technology, autonomous underwater vehicles, and an interchangeable fleet of Type 26 frigates.
In August last year, Norway confirmed it would adopt the British Type 26 anti-submarine warfare frigate after a selection process that began in December 2024.
30 Commando Information Exploitation Group commanding officer lieutenant colonel Chris Armstrong said: “The UK Commando Force is stepping up readiness to war-fight alongside our allies in the High North. As NATO’s cold-weather specialists, we are ruthlessly focussed on mission rehearsals with our closest partners. Fusing intelligence, bold commando tactics, and cutting-edge technology – we remain poised for operations.”
The UK Commando Force has undergone modernisation over recent years, incorporating AI-enabled targeting systems, multi-domain fire capabilities, and uncrewed surface vessels.
The implementation of these technologies is intended to provide NATO with operational advantages within the region.
A previous agreement forged between the UK and Norway in 2023 established a strategic partnership focused on countering shared threats, including safeguarding undersea infrastructure. (Source: naval-technology.com)
07 Jan 26. UK provides support to U.S. seizure of Bella 1 accused of shadow fleet activities and Iran sanctions breaches.
The UK has provided enabling support to the United States at their request to interdict the vessel Bella 1 today.
The UK has provided enabling support to the United States at their request to interdict the vessel Bella 1 today.
UK armed forces provided pre-planned operational support, including basing, to U.S. military assets interdicting the Bella 1 between the UK and Iceland following a U.S. request for assistance. RFA Tideforce is providing support for U.S. forces pursuing and interdicting the Bella 1, while the RAF provided surveillance support from the air.
The UK and U.S. defence and security relationship is the deepest in the world and the UK provided enabling support in full compliance with international law.
Defence Secretary John Healey MP said: “Our UK Armed Forces showed skill and professionalism in support of a successful U.S. interception of the vessel Bella 1 while on its way to Russia. This action formed part of global efforts to crack down on sanctions busting. This ship, with a nefarious history, is part of a Russian-Iranian axis of sanctions evasion which is fuelling terrorism, conflict, and misery from the Middle East to Ukraine. The UK will continue to step up our action against shadow fleet activity to protect our national security, our economy, and global stability – making Britain secure at home and strong abroad. The U.S. is the UK’s closest defence and security partner and the security of the North Atlantic is critical to both our homelands. The depth of our defence relationship with the U.S. is an essential part of our security, and today’s seamlessly executed operation shows just how well this works in practice.”
The Bella 1 is sanctioned by the U.S. under its counter-Iran sanctions, aimed at stopping Iran from fuelling instability in the Middle East through the profits of illegal oil sales.
The ship, initially flying a false flag, turned off its transponders while at sea and sought to reflag while being pursued, indicating its nefarious links to global sanctions evasion.
Assessments going back several years that the Bella 1 has been involved in illegal activity, linked to international terrorism and crime including Hezbollah, and part of the web of rising shadow activity that fuels and finances nefarious activity across the globe.
The Russian flagging of the vessel shows their role in this interconnected shadow activity we are seeing across the world, which threatens our national security, harms our economy and undermines global security.
Further information
• Deterring and disrupting the Russian shadow fleet is a priority for the UK. To date, we have imposed sanctions on 520 Russian shadow fleet vessels.
• This is working. For example, Russia’s critical oil revenues are down 27% compared to October 2024, the lowest since the start of the war in Ukraine. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
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