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11 Sep 25. Germany: Sporadic far-left attacks on defence, high-tech companies will highly likely continue. On 9 September, anonymous far-left actors claimed responsibility for an arson attack on two power masts in the Treptow-Köpenick borough of the capital Berlin earlier in the day. The attack left approximately 50,000 households and businesses in Berlin without power supply; as of 10 September, an estimated 20,000 households remain without electricity. Several thousand households and businesses will likely continue facing power supply disruption in the coming days. In the letter of responsibility (‘bekennerschreiben’), the authors claim that they targeted the ‘military-industrial complex’ at the Adlershof technology park. This is Germany’s largest science and technology park, hosting approximately 1,340 companies and research institutes. In addition to targeting the defence sector, the letter cites grievances towards technological progress and innovation. We assess that high-tech companies will likely continue to be targeted by far-left actors. The risk will likely remain highest in Berlin, though sporadic attacks will also be likely in Munich (Bavaria state) and North Rhine-Westphalia state. (Source: Sibylline)
12 Sep 25. British economy sees defence dividend as new figures reveal above inflation increase in spend with industry. Government spending in the UK defence industry grew by 6% in real terms to £31.7bn, according to latest figures for 2024/25 published today.
Working people will feel safer and see the economic benefits of the record investment in defence the Government has delivered, new figures (MOD regional expenditure with industry 2024/25 – GOV.UK) reveal.
In a powerful boost to the UK economy, the figures which cover the 2024/25 financial year, show a 6% rise in real terms expenditure bringing the total to £31.7bn.
In an increasingly unstable and volatile world, this includes a 21% uplift to investment in the Weapons and Ammunition sector after inflation, so the UK is resilient and responsive to any challenge.
The figures show how the Government is making defence an engine for growth, with increased investment creating jobs and opportunities in communities across the country to raise living standards and put more money in working people’s pockets.
The figures show an exceptional increase from the previous year, representing the highest level of defence investment in UK industry for over a decade. This substantial investment translates to £460 for every person living in the UK, up from £440 the previous year.
The benefits will be felt across the UK, with Yorkshire and Humber seeing the biggest percentage rise in spend, increasing by 30%, with London (18%) and the North West (15%) also seeing big increases.
Defence Secretary John Healey said: “This record investment shows how we are making defence an engine for growth, supporting jobs and prosperity for British working people and boosting businesses across the United Kingdom. These new figures show how the defence dividend from our record investment is benefitting working people across the UK. It follows the launch of our Defence Industrial Strategy this week, which will provide the resilient industrial base that we need for the future.
This record spending directly supports the Government’s Defence Industrial Strategy, launched this week, which focuses on enabling the building of a resilient supply chain and supporting innovation across the defence sector.”
Small and medium-sized enterprises continue to benefit from defence investment, with direct defence spending supporting innovation and growth in businesses across the UK. This reflects the Defence Industrial Strategy’s commitment to diversifying the supply chain and ensuring smaller companies can contribute to Britain’s defence capabilities whilst driving local economic growth.
Much of the Ministry of Defence’s global expenditure remains anchored in the UK, ensuring that taxpayers’ investment in defence translates directly into British jobs, skills, and economic growth. This includes both direct payments to UK industry and indirect spending through international agreements where work subsequently takes place in Britain. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
12 Sep 25. Germany – Defence Overhaul.
Key points
• We assess that Operationsplan Deutschland (OPLAN) would place a significant burden on critical infrastructure operators in the event of a defence emergency (which we assess is unlikely to materialise in the short term). However, it would also lead to opportunities for the defence sector and adjacent industries, while simultaneously boosting national resilience.
• The critical infrastructure umbrella law (KRITIS-Dachgesetz) will introduce more immediate compliance risks for critical infrastructure operators in 2026-27.
• There has been a spike in far-left, anti-war attacks and threats targeting businesses, business executives and critical national infrastructure (CNI) in 2025; we assess this will likely continue on trend for at least the next six months.
Context
Three and a half years after the former chancellor, Olaf Scholz, announced the ‘Zeitenwende’ (‘turning point’) in Germany’s defence and security policy, this shift is gaining momentum (albeit gradually). So far in 2025, the Bundeswehr has outlined OPLAN, a strategic ‘military readiness’ plan. The government has also loosened the country’s debt brake to facilitate higher defence and infrastructure spending, while the defence company Rheinmetall has opened Europe’s largest ammunition factory. In addition, the government has agreed on a new military service law, which edges Germany closer to conscription. Germany has also overseen its first permanent foreign troop deployment since the Second World War (in Lithuania, under NATO auspices). We assess that procurement bureaucracy and post-war pacifist traditions are among the key factors that will likely weigh on the speed of this defence overhaul. Aspects of the initiative will require compliance from the private sector. The move has also triggered a surge in far-left, anti-war activism, including direct attacks on businesses, business executives and CNI.
Forecast
OPLAN would place a significant burden on the private sector in the unlikely event of a defence emergency, though it would also present business opportunities
OPLAN is a classified strategic document designed by the Bundeswehr to ensure that the military, civil society and private sector are all appropriately prepared in the event of a defence emergency. This is typically envisaged as Germany acting as a critical hub for transporting troop and equipment towards NATO’s eastern flank in the event of an attack in that region. In this (unlikely) scenario, the private sector would be called upon to facilitate Bundeswehr and NATO requirements. For instance, the Bundeswehr would likely call on the capacity of private logistics companies to support the transport of supplies such as fuel. Certain power plants would almost certainly have to be protected to ensure continued power supply. Overall, the plan would likely place a higher burden on critical infrastructure operators, as key sectors such as transport, energy and communication services would need to remain functional in the event of an emergency.
Nonetheless, the plan is also likely to present opportunities, particularly for the defence and transport sectors and adjacent industries, while also boosting overall national resilience. For example, the defence company Rheinmetall received an order from the Bundeswehr worth EUR 260m (USD 305m) to provide logistical support under the framework of OPLAN. The company will set up and operate holding areas or Convoy Support Centres (CSCs) and assembly areas along convoy routes. This reportedly renders Rheinmetall the first industrial partner to provide such support to the Bundeswehr under OPLAN. Other such opportunities are likely to arise for the wider defence and transport sectors; subcontracts are likely to present business opportunities for a far wider range of sectors, such as hospitality and retail – as well as other defence and technology small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
KRITIS-Dachgesetz will highly likely introduce more immediate compliance risks for critical infrastructure operators
Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government has approved a draft of the KRITIS-Dachgesetz, which was initiated by the coalition government headed by Scholz. It will implement the EU’s Critical Entities Resilience (CER) directive into national law. The umbrella law (KRITIS-Dachgesetz) seeks to enhance the physical protection of critical infrastructure and assets by ensuring that infrastructure operators carry out risk assessments, implement resilience measures and are compliant with strict reporting obligations. For example, a critical infrastructure operator must report an incident to the Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK) within 24 hours of becoming aware of such an event.
An operator of critical infrastructure is defined as any legal person who exercises decisive influence over one or more critical installations, the failure of which would lead to supply shortages or threats to public safety. Such an operator generally supplies at least 500,000 people. The approved draft estimates that there are approximately 1,700 such installations across the following sectors: energy, finance, food, healthcare, information technology (IT), social security benefits, telecommunications, transport and water. Failure to comply with the law can entail fines ranging from EUR 50,000 (USD 58,000) to EUR 500,000 (USD 587,000). However, independent experts have critiqued these fines as insufficient; they predict that operators will be inclined to pay the fines rather than invest in resilience. It remains possible that fines will increase during the legislative process. It is also possible that the legislation will come into force in early 2026, meaning companies are unlikely to be required to comply fully with the law until H2 2026 at the earliest.
Far-left and anti-war activism will pose a growing security threat to businesses and CNI
The defence overhaul has triggered a marked uptick in far-left and anti-war activism in Germany in 2025. Firstly, there have been several disruptive attacks against CNI, including an arson attack against a railway line connecting Duisburg and Düsseldorf (both North Rhine-Westphalia state) in July that caused major disruption to train services in western Germany for 48 hours. The uptick also included an arson attack in September against power masts in the capital Berlin that knocked out power for approximately 50,000 households and businesses – as well as transport services.
Secondly, threats to defence executives have increased. In June, far-left threat actors claimed responsibility for torching the car of Kajetan von Mentzingen, the CEO of the defence company Vincorion. In August, Rheinmetall Entwaffnen (‘Disarm Rheinmetall’) doxxed the address of Rheinmetall’s CEO, Armin Papperger, and held a protest near his private residence.
Thirdly, defence firms and numerous other companies with perceived connections to the defence industry have been directly targeted. For example, fleets of vehicles belonging to the e-commerce company Amazon and telecommunications company Deutsche Telekom were torched in June for their alleged partnerships with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Bundeswehr, respectively. The identification of the IDF connection underscores the increasing crossover between various pro-Palestine and anti-war groups.
Several far-left groups typically – and explicitly – claim responsibility for such attacks. A group called Angry Birds Commando has claimed responsibility for numerous incidents, including the sabotage attack targeting the railway line between Duisburg and Düsseldorf. There are also so-called Vulkangruppen (‘Volcano groups’) that have claimed responsibility for attacks in Berlin.
Rheinmetall Entwaffnen has organised numerous anti-war protests. However, most attacks are claimed by anonymous threat actors citing ecological, anti-war or anti-fascist causes as their motivation. In Munich (Bavaria state), no-one (even anonymously) has claimed responsibility for a spate of attacks against business and law enforcement assets; the authorities suspect a far-left group carried out the attacks.
We assess that far-left and anti-war attacks against infrastructure and private companies will continue to pose a heightened risk, at least for the next six months. Anti-war narratives and actions increasingly feature across far-left online platforms, which, until recently, were dominated by environmentalist issues. Messages of solidarity with Daniella Klette – the alleged former member of the left-wing Red Army Faction (RAF) terrorist group who is currently on trial – are common. In its most recent annual report, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), Germany’s domestic intelligence service, assessed that far-left extremism in Germany falls below the threshold of terrorism. However, if this strand of extremism is left unchecked, a new left-wing terrorism threat is liable to emerge. While we assess that this is unlikely in the short-to-medium term, we also assess that the scope for such radicalisation is likely greatest in relation to anti-war extremism. (Source: Sibylline)
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