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08 May 25. Starmer to promise ‘defence dividend’ from UK military spending. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to promise on Thursday that his government will deliver a “defence dividend” for voters, framing an increase in military spending forced by a U.S. shift away from underwriting Europe’s security as an economic opportunity.
Marking the 80th anniversary of Victory in Europe Day (VE Day), Starmer is expected to say that higher defence spending will strengthen national security and support communities across the country by creating more jobs.
Addressing policymakers, military figures, defence firms and academics at a defence conference, Starmer will also announce a £563m ($751m) contract for Rolls-Royce (RR.L) to maintain the Royal Air Force’s Typhoon jets.
“Our task now is to seize the defence dividend – felt directly in the pockets of working people, rebuilding our industrial base and creating the jobs of the future,” Starmer will say, according to advance extracts of his remarks.
“A national effort. A time for the state, business and society to join hands, in pursuit of the security of the nation and the prosperity of its people.” (Source: Reuters)
08 May 25. Macron, Merz vow closer defense ties in reboot of French-German couple. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz traveled to Paris on his first foreign trip as head of government to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron, with the two leaders promising closer defense ties and a reboot of the French-German alliance that has been a driver of European cooperation. The two countries will accelerate French-German programs to develop capacities that go beyond current programs for next-generation tanks, fighter jets and long-range missiles, Macron said at a press conference here on Wednesday, without providing details. The countries will also establish a Franco-German defense and security council that will meet regularly to provide “operational responses to our common strategic challenges,” Macron said.
“In the future, we want to use this council to coordinate our support for Ukraine even better, to coordinate our national defense planning and procurement projects even more closely, and to provide new answers to strategic questions of security and defense policy,” Merz said.
Macron said the first responsibility of France and Germany is security in Europe, “and this requires above all our resolute support for Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.” The countries must continue to respond to Russia’s systemic threat to European security by upping defense investment, the French president said.
Merz called for further increased defense spending in all European Union member states.
“This is the only way we can gradually close our military capability gaps and continue to provide comprehensive support to Ukraine,” he said.
Macron said France and Germany will have to enact the plan by the European Commission to fund priority capability needs and “invest heavily in our European defense industrial and technological base.” The countries will coordinate work on updating their national strategic reviews and share analyses, according to Macron.
“Finally, we will establish a Franco-German defense innovation program to enable the breakthrough innovations needed for tomorrow’s warfare,” Macron said.
Merz said he and Macron agreed on an “a Franco-German new start for Europe,” giving new impetus to the French-German friendship and deepening cooperation at all levels. “Europe must become more competitive, and to do so, it must become more united,” Merz said.
France and Germany will further develop format such as the E3 informal security cooperation with the U.K., as well as the Weimar Triagle alliance with Poland, according to the chancellor.
“We will take joint measures to further expand Europe’s security and defense capabilities and to further strengthen the European pillar within NATO,” Merz said. “This also includes bilateral defense cooperation, which we will deepen and accelerate, as well as cooperation with our European partners.”
Macron said strengthening the European pillar of NATO doesn’t call into question the historical alliances, but is about Europeans assuming more responsibility for themselves.
“In this context, it is entirely natural that all issues should be discussed, including that of nuclear deterrence, with our histories, our specific characteristics and, in France’s case, our status as a state with independent and autonomous capabilities and different components,” Macron said.
Merz said there’s a fundamental need to discuss with France and the U.K. “how we can continue to provide such a deterrent response together in the future,” adding that would be “expressly” intended as a supplement to agreements with the U.S. on nuclear deterrence within NATO. French and German government leaders, foreign ministers and defense ministers will discuss the nuclear deterrent and other issues in coming weeks and months, according to Merz.
“This is first and foremost a discussion that we will hold together because we want to know what we can do together to strengthen our defense efforts,” the chancellor said, again emphasizing the goal is “expressly not a substitute for the nuclear guarantee” provided by the United States.
The French president said France and Germany will continue to work with the U.S. and willing nations on a ceasefire in Ukraine and to create conditions for just and lasting peace “based on robust security guarantees.” France is “coordinating very closely” with Merz and his teams on the issue, Macron said.
Merz said he‘s planning to visit Ukraine in the coming weeks, with discussions on the details of the visit currently taking place. The chancellor said that until a lasting ceasefire and an agreement can be reached, the countries can’t provide information on the scope of the security guarantees for Ukraine, “because we simply do not yet know the conditions.” He said the war in Ukraine cannot be ended without further political and military engagement by the United States.
“We are prepared to do our part on the European side,” Merz said. “But we also know that we still need the Americans. We want the Americans to stay on board, to continue to fulfill their responsibilities within NATO, but also toward Ukraine.”
Macron said he approves of Merz’s desire to recreate “strategic ambiguity” regarding aid provided to Ukraine, including Taurus missiles.
“We would be crazy to give out categories of weapons, delivery dates, and models at every press conference, because the Russian army may be listening to the answers to your questions and sometimes to your questions as well,” Macron said.
Merz, who had floated the idea of giving Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine in past months, was noncommittal on the issue in his first German TV interview as chancellor on Tuesday, the day he was sworn in.
Asked about prospective Taurus deliveries, he said only that Ukraine would be able to rely on him and Germany. His predecessor, Olaf Scholz believed giving Taurus to Ukraine would be impossible as a stand-alone weapon, pulling German military-support elements into the fight directly. Macron and Merz published a joint op-ed in conservative-leaning French daily Le Figaro on their plan to reboot French-German cooperation, with a goal of making Europe more sovereign and to promote its interests. As European countries spend on their defense capabilities, France and Germany will promote a European preference, the leaders said. Europe has to reduce its strategic dependencies as well as the number of defense systems, creating standardization and interoperability, according the president and the chancellor. (Source: Defense News)
09 May 25. Rheinmetall CEO sees rapid increase in NATO countries’ spending. The CEO of German arms maker Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE), opens new tab expects a rapid increase in NATO defence spending, he said on Thursday, after meeting with the head of the alliance. During the meeting last week, NATO chief Mark Rutte told him that member nations should increase their defence spending to 3.5% of their respective economic output, Armin Papperger said in an analysts’ call. Rutte has proposed that alliance members boost defence spending to 3.5% of GDP and commit a further 1.5% to broader security-related spending to meet U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand for a 5% target, people familiar with the proposal told Reuters last week. (Source: Reuters)
08 May 25. British soldiers could be deployed on European Union military missions as the price for joining the bloc’s €150bn (£127bn) rearmament programme, The Telegraph can reveal. The deployments are set out in a leaked draft of the new defence and security partnership, marked “classified and sensitive”, obtained by The Telegraph. It is being negotiated as the centrepiece of a UK-EU summit in London on May 19. The draft states that the Prime Minister. Sir Keir Starmer, would have to consider sending British servicemen and women on both “civilian missions and military operations and missions, upon the invitation of the EU”. Signing up to the deal tabled by Brussels is seen as “the first prerequisite for a third country to be able to participate in” the EU’s Security Action For Europe (Safe) fund. The rearmament scheme will raise at least €150billion through the EU’s budget to buy weapons from manufacturers in participating countries. The Government wants to join the fund to enable British arms firms, such as BAE Systems, to bid and win contracts from it. Brussels would likely use Britain’s implementation of the new defence pact as a bargaining chip for any involvement in Safe. The latest version of the Safe agreement, seen by the Telegraph, states that third countries “must have entered into a security and defence partnership in order to open up eligibility”. The draft EU-UK agreement, drawn up by Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, sets out areas where the bloc expects Britain to cooperate on foreign policy, defence and security. It sets out plans for new intelligence sharing mechanisms, coordination of conflict prevention and peace mediation, as well as joint plans to put the UK and EU on a war footing. Joint efforts on space, emerging threats such as artificial intelligence, fake news, and terror are also included by Brussels. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
08 May 25. EU-US: Halt on intelligence sharing remains highly unlikely, despite mounting friction. On 7 May, the chairman of the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Tom Cotton, urged the US intelligence community to halt sharing intelligence with Germany that could be used to target the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. This comes after Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (BfV) classified the AfD as a confirmed right-wing extremist entity, a decision that will allow closer monitoring of the party. Cotton’s proposal underscores heightened tensions between the US and numerous EU member states. Over the past few months, multiple EU countries have expressed concerns over the reliability of US intelligence amid concurrent trade tensions. On 7 May, Germany’s parliamentary intelligence committee urged Germany and its European allies to establish their own intelligence-sharing network. We assess that a halt on EU-US intelligence-sharing agreements is highly unlikely in near future. However, current political tensions are likely to weigh on trade negotiations. We also assess these tensions will likely spur European countries to enhance their own intelligence capabilities, though this represents a long-term aim; countries such as Germany will remain dependent on US intelligence in the interim. (Source: Sibylline)
07 May 25. Poland proffers common defense financing as panacea for arming Europe. As European nations seek more self-reliance in weapon procurement, a new intergovernmental initiative dubbed the European Defence Mechanism (EDM) could pave the way for closer integration of the continent’s fragmented defense industries, according to a recent report by Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. The study was commissioned by Poland, a European Union member state which holds the rotating presidency of the bloc’s council for the first six months of 2025. The report was presented to the EU’s Ministers for Economic and Financial Affairs at an April meeting in Polish capital Warsaw, involving 27 governments in the ensuing debate. One of its key findings is that better-integrated European defense markets could both stimulate competition and make it easier for new defense companies to launch products. Combining integrated markets and scaled-up procurement could facilitate halving unit costs, according to the think tank. By pooling demand for military gear and enforcing common standards, European partners can achieve reduced costs, but also incentivize the continent’s industry players to grow, Guntram Wolff, a senior fellow at Bruegel and a co-author of the report, told Defense News.
“We need to work on a European defense funding mechanism for a deeper integration of markets across the European Economic Area. If we don’t to that, we will have fragmented markets with national producers supplying to small domestic markets, and the economic cost is going to be very high for individual products,” Wolff said.
“Expensive products, such as modern fighter jets, will not be developed by individual countries,” he added.
At the same time, future discussions on the EDM will be shaped by institutional and political challenges, Wolff said. This is because certain EU member states have constitutional constraints that could stop them from participating in similar mechanisms, and some governments do not want to engage in defense cooperation with other EU partners.
“It is a political question whether to include non-EU countries in this proposed mechanism, one that would need to be answered by the governments of EU member states,” the researcher said. “Countries such as the UK and Norway, or even Turkey and, outside Europe, Canada could decide that they want to engage their defense industries in this form of cooperation.”
A spokesperson for the Polish Ministry of National Defence told Defense News that the ongoing talks on the EDM are led by the country’s Ministry of Finance, indicating that the discussions are mostly related to the financial aspects of the proposed mechanism.
“Together with EU finance ministers, we discussed what I believe is the most pressing issue right now in Europe: security and defense financing,” Andrzej Domański, Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, said in a statement released by the Polish presidency.
“We welcome the ReArm Europe Plan, the most ambitious defense plan so far presented by the European Commission, with an up to €150 bn [$170.5 bn] loan mechanism and a greater flexibility in EU fiscal rules.”
Since Russia launched a war against Ukraine in February 2022, Poland has boosted defense spending to expand its military and arm it with modern weapons. For 2025, the country’s government aims to allocate a total of PLN 186.6bn ($49.6bn) to defense. With the country’s military expenditure expected to reach an estimated 4.7 percent of its gross domestic product this year, Poland has established itself as one of the alliance’s top spenders. In response to the new foreign policy course in Washington, officials in Warsaw have doubled down on Poland’s commitment to defense cooperation with the United States. A large share of the nation’s defense budget finances major purchases of weapons from Washington, including the ongoing programs to acquire F-35 fighters jets, Boeing AH-64D copters, M1A2 Abrams SEPv3 tanks, and Patriot air defense batteries, among others. At the same time, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has declared his Cabinet aims to tighten defense cooperation with EU partners, as well as key European allies such as the U.K. and Turkey, securing weapons and military technology from these countries. By promoting discussions on the EDM, Warsaw aims to push the bloc’s defense industries towards more joint projects such as the German-led European Sky Shield Initiative, a continent-wide project to coordinate nations’ air defense-related acquisitions and procedures. (Source: Defense News)
07 May 25. UK strengthens security relationship with Europe ahead of UK-EU summit. Foreign Secretary heads to EU Foreign Ministers meeting to highlight the need for a new, ambitious security relationship.
- UK joins high-level Gymnich talks with the EU Foreign Ministers in Poland at critical time as well as travelling to the Western Balkans
- Support for Ukraine will be high on the agenda as well as enhancing UK-EU security and defence ties
- Strengthening the UK’s security partnership with Europe will deliver on the Government’s Plan for Change by bolstering national security
The UK is continuing to engage with Europe highlighting the need for a new, ambitious security relationship, as the Foreign Secretary attends high-level Gymnich EU talks in Poland (7th May). At the discussion on foreign affairs, David Lammy will underline how closer cooperation on security and defence is in the interests of both the UK and the EU and will discuss uniting across the continent to secure a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. Lammy, who was the first Foreign Secretary since Brexit to attend a formal meeting of EU foreign ministers in October, has been laying the foundations for stronger ties with Europe since taking office. Following leader-level discussions in London between the Prime Minister and the President of the European Union Commission on 24 April, he will continue to make the case for a long-term UK-EU strategic partnership that will support economic growth, protect citizens, and support European collective security and defence. The meeting comes days ahead of the UK-EU Summit (19 May), which will cover a range of UK-EU issues and look to foster a stable, positive and forward-looking relationship.
Foreign Secretary David Lammy said: ”We are working hand-in-hand with our European allies to build a safer, more secure, and more prosperous Europe. Together, we will stand firm against aggression, defend our shared values, and deliver lasting peace. ” In the face of Russian aggression, NATO’s Eastern Flank has never been more important. We are resolute in defending Europe’s security. As we mark the 80th anniversary of VE Day, this commitment reminds us that our collective defence of freedom and peace in Europe remains as vital today as it was eight decades ago. ”
As part of his visit, the Foreign Secretary will travel to Bosnia and Herzegovina. He will meet political leaders to emphasise UK support for domestic action to respond to the ongoing political crisis, including through the formation of a new state-level coalition focused on Euro-Atlantic integration. He will also visit the EUFOR military base, which is playing a key role in maintaining security in BiH and therefore contributing to regional stability. Ongoing instability in the region risks a return to violence and threatens collective security, including through irregular migration and serious and organised crime. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
06 May 25. Lithuania to lay antitank mines along its borders with Belarus, Russia. The Lithuanian government will invest over €1bn ($1.1bn) over the next ten years to fortify its border protections near Belarus and Russia, with plans to purchase and install new antitank mines. The Ministry of Defense announced the decision on May 5, stressing the mines’ intended effect of restricting the movements of invading forces.
“Counter-mobility measures are an important part of our national defense concept. … In the event of aggression, they would allow blocking and slowing down the actions of hostile states against Lithuania,” a ministry statement noted.
Over €800m of the planned investment will be allocated to purchasing antitank mines and related systems. The rest of the funds are lined up to prioritize the acquisition of electronic-warfare and counter-drone weapons, strengthening surveillance and early-warning systems, and increasing the mine-clearance capabilities of the Lithuanian military. In parallel, Vilnius has also partnered with other Baltic nations, Estonia and Latvia, to implement the Baltic Defense Line project, seeking to bolster NATO’s eastern border to prevent possible adversary advances.
“Intensive work is underway to identify the geographical points where the countries’ engineering barriers need to converge to ensure the integrity of the Baltic Defense Lines,” the ministry statement added.
The initiatives come shortly after the government here, alongside with Latvia, Poland and Estonia, announced it would leave the Ottawa Convention, which forbids the use and stockpiling of anti-personnel landmines.
Last month, Latvia‘s Parliament officially voted to exit the international treaty ban, joining Finland, which announced its intention to withdraw on April 1. Finnish and Latvian officials have argued that their countries must reassess their defense strategies to respond more effectively to potential military threats. The embrace of mines has sparked concerns among international human rights groups who have warned that unexploded munitions pose risks to civilians for decades. (Source: Defense News)
06 May 25. Maximising UK-German Defence and Security. “As the two largest European defence spenders in NATO and the top two European supporters of Ukraine in absolute financial terms, the UK and Germany will have to shoulder far more of the European security burden. They must do this together.” This is the view expressed in a new report from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) today – Maximising UK-German Defence and Security by Ed Arnold – which says that faced with mounting geopolitical volatility, the UK and Germany must advance a treaty-based defence partnership to reinforce European security and prosperity. The report recommends a new German government establishes a National Security Council (NSC) to catalyse deeper strategic alignment, and says enhanced bilateral security and defence cooperation would usher in a new era of Anglo-German relations. This partnership should build on the October 2024 Trinity House Agreement between the two countries, cementing defence and security as the cornerstone of wider Anglo-German cooperation across foreign, economic, energy, and migration policy areas. The shifting global order – shaped by a second Trump presidency and Russian aggression – means that Europe’s principal powers must offer more proactive leadership. As Germany reassesses it strategic posture, and the UK government pushes a ‘reset’ with European allies, the report says the two nations can jointly shape NATO and EU security architecture and coordinate responses to complex threats.
Key Findings:
- Strategic urgency demands deeper UK–Germany defence cooperation. The current geopolitical climate compels both nations to act decisively, particularly in sustaining support for Ukraine and preparing for US unpredictability. The paper says: “The rapid deterioration of Euro-Atlantic security as a result of Trump’s early rapprochement with Russia … will immediately stress-test the new relationship.”
- The Trinity House Agreement offers a defence cooperation blueprint. This agreement currently includes tangible projects like German maritime patrol aircraft operating from RAF Lossiemouth and embedded planners within UK defence reviews. “Signed just 111 days after the Labour government was elected… the agreement covers strengthening defence industries, reinforcing Euro-Atlantic security, enhancing interoperability… and working together on future ‘Deep Precision Strike’ capabilities.”
- Establishing a German NSC enables structural alignment. This development would mirror the UK’s 15-year-old NSC and enhance cross-government coordination on intelligence against hybrid threats. “Creating a German NSC would establish a new and important link between UK and German national security advisers … fostering greater integrated intelligence cooperation.”
- Expanding cooperation without clear governance risks bureaucratic sprawl. Effective governance will be vital to ensure that defence and security arrangements remain insulated from political volatility in other sectors.
“Adding additional policy areas means that cooperation could touch as many as 13 of the 34 UK ministerial departments and 10 of 15 German federal ministries.”
Key Recommendations:
- Use defence industrial alignment to shape EU–UK cooperation
“Creating closer alignment between UK and German industrial strategies would be a quick win… and a precursor to UK–EU defence industrial collaboration.”
Joint procurement and access to the EU’s €150bn rearmament fund would hedge against US unreliability and support domestic growth.
- Anchor bilateral cooperation in high-level political engagement
“The prime minister and chancellor must be directly involved… through regular consultations and joint Cabinet meetings.”
Sustained top-level attention is necessary to drive delivery and hold departments accountable.
- Increase strategic dialogue at foreign, defence, and home ministries
“Opening dialogues between foreign, defence and home secretaries would enable greater political interest… and integrated policy responses.”
A trilateral ministerial dialogue could replace siloed engagements with a more robust, unified security policy approach.
- Revitalise non-governmental partnerships and strategic forums
“The annual Königswinter Conference and the British-German Association… have become stale, procedural.”
Renewed investment in civil society, academic, and cultural ties can reinforce governmental cooperation and foster long-term resilience.
Conclusion
The UK–German defence partnership should evolve into a keystone of Europe’s security architecture. As Europe navigates a turbulent era, the strength of this bilateral relationship may well determine the continent’s stability, security and resilience. With the Trinity House Agreement offering a framework, the establishment of a German National Security Council would add strategic coherence, and help position both countries advance a treaty based relationship and fill critical leadership voids in Europe. Success will depend not only on institutional agreements but will require sustained political will to operationalise them effectively.
05 May 25. Starmer prepares for attack by Russia. Officials asked to update 20-year-old contingency plans that would put UK on war footing after Kremlin threats. Britain is secretly preparing for a direct military attack by Russia amid fears that it is not ready for war. Officials have been asked to update 20-year-old contingency plans that would put the country on a war footing after threats of attack by the Kremlin. A classified dossier will set out how the Government would respond to a declaration of war, including bunkers to protect the Cabinet and the Royal family, public service broadcasts and the stockpiling of resources. Ministers fear that Britain would not only be outgunned by Russia and its allies on the battlefield but would also be unprepared and poorly defended at home. Kremlin officials have repeatedly threatened the UK with a direct attack over its support for Ukraine, which may soon include British troops on the ground. Experts have warned that the country is vulnerable to an assault on its critical national infrastructure, including gas terminals, undersea cables, nuclear power plants and transport hubs. The Telegraph understands that an update to the classified “homeland defence plan” will set out a strategy for the days immediately after a strike on the UK mainland by a hostile foreign state. It will include scenarios in which Britain is hit by conventional missiles, nuclear warheads or cyber operations, which were a limited threat when the last significant update to the plan was made before 2005. The plan, by the Cabinet Office’s Resilience Directorate, will direct the Prime Minister and Cabinet on how to run a wartime government and when they should seek shelter in the Downing Street bunker or outside London. The war strategies for the rail and road networks, courts, postal system and phone lines are all expected to be examined. It is unlikely that the document will be released to the public for decades, if at all. The Cabinet Office has already modelled a scenario in which a hostile state launched missiles and cyber attacks on national infrastructure at the same time. A risk assessment, published in January, found that a successful attack was “likely to result in civilian fatalities as well as members of the emergency services”, cause serious economic damage and disrupt essential services. Defence officials have also called for Britain to develop its own form of Israel’s Iron Dome to protect it from missile attacks. Last month, a senior RAF official revealed that, if the first night of the Ukraine conflict had played out in the UK, Russian missiles would have broken through British defences and destroyed infrastructure targets. Russia, China and Iran all claim to have developed hypersonic missiles that can travel at up to 10 times the speed of sound and evade defences more easily than a conventional ballistic missile. British officials are especially concerned about gas terminals and the country’s five active nuclear power stations, which could release radioactive material across the country and cause “significant prolonged long-term security, health, environmental and economic impacts” if struck, according to a Whitehall assessment. The Government has also modelled the likelihood and effects of a nuclear missile attack on the UK, but the official conclusions of that review remain classified. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
03 May 25. Spain must raise defence spending to 3% of GDP, says EU defence chief. Spain will have to raise defence spending to 3% of gross domestic product, the European defence commissioner said in a newspaper interview published on Saturday, as European countries bend to pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to spend more. The 23 members of the European Union, including Spain, who also belong to NATO are expected to agree at a summit of the alliance in June to raise the defence spending target above the current 2% of national output. (Source: Google/Reuters)
02 May 25. Germany: Ruling against AfD will highly unlikely lead to ban, possibly drive political violence. Earlier on 2 May, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) ruled that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is a confirmed right-wing extremist entity. The agency emphasised the AfD’s anti-minority and anti-Islamic positions as being incompatible with Germany’s democratic basic order; it also noted the party’s links to other right-wing extremist groups. The party’s regional chapters in Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia states are already classified as confirmed right-wing extremist endeavours; the ruling does not ban the AfD from office. We assess that the ruling will possibly encourage a formal effort to ban the party, though this is highly unlikely to be successful. We also assess that the ruling is highly unlikely to damage the AfD’s popularity (it is the second largest party in Germany and the Thuringia chapter won a state election despite its extremist classification). This development will possibly prompt further political violence in the form of far-left attacks on AfD politicians and property over the coming year. Similarly, it will possibly increase the risk of far-right extremists targeting centrist politicians and/or the state. (Source: Sibylline)
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