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16 Jan 25. UK Military numbers unlikely to increase after defence review. Budgetary and recruitment constraints will affect the size of the armed forces but a ‘homeland defence force’ could result in greater co-operation with emergency services. The size of the British military is not expected to increase under the strategic defence review despite warnings by chiefs that the world is more dangerous than it has been in decades, The Times understands. Plans are being discussed, however, for a “homeland defence force” that would be fully activated in the event of a big conflict and would have troops carry out regular table-top exercises with the police and NHS.
Military personnel tasked with helping to draw up the strategic review document believe that because of budget constraints there will be no increase in personnel numbers, an inside source said. The army is already at its smallest size since the Napoleonic era and is due to dip below 70,000 this year.
General Sir Roly Walker, the head of the army, has privately indicated that “he is accepting of the likelihood it is not going to increase”, according to a defence source, and is focused on modernising the force he has left.
Admiral Sir Ben Key, the head of the navy, is understood not to have asked for more sailors in his submission to the review, believing that in 20 to 30 years destroyers and frigates will be autonomous.
Key is said to have written to John Healey, the defence secretary, to say that focusing on hitting recruitment targets is a priority.
This resignation is unusual before the publication of a defence review and highlights the severity of the financial and recruitment woes facing the armed forces, which have a multibillion-pound shortfall and are already short of thousands of soldiers, sailors and airmen and women.
Mike Martin, a Liberal Democrat MP and former army officer who served several tours in Afghanistan, said it was “extraordinary” that there appeared to be no plans to increase the size of the military.
He said: “The Conservatives cut the size of the army, and now Labour are normalising those cuts at a time when the world is at its most unstable for 80 years. Frankly, it’s weak.”
He said he was “very proud” that the Lib Dems were calling on the government to increase the size of the army by 10,000 troops. “It is the right thing to do for our capability, and it sends the right signals to Putin,” he said.
Those working on the review have also identified the need for a “homeland defence force”, according to two sources.
The proposals being worked on would include a more joined-up approach between government departments, under which the police, fire brigade, the NHS and military personnel would be trained to respond to an attack on Britain.
One source said: “They have realised they need to generate a homeland defence force in the event of a major war as the whole of the regulars and reserves need to fight and they need a separate force to defend the homeland.”
It is not clear how the force would be generated, although General Sir Patrick Sanders, the former head of the army, suggested that civilians should be mobilised for the event of a big conflict.
The review is due to be published in the first half of this year, at about the same time the government is expected to outline how it plans to reach a defence spending target of 2.5 per cent of GDP.
In the early days of the review Healey did not rule out an increase to the armed forces, but all three services are struggling to reach their recruitment targets. Any ambition to increase those targets would be likely to be missed.
A Whitehall source insisted no decisions had been made and ministers could still decide to increase the target size of the military.
The army is about 71,300-strong but only 55,005 of those personnel are considered fully deployable, meaning they are able to serve without medical restrictions. The current target for the army is 73,000.
The Royal Navy has missed its recruitment targets for sailors and commandos every year for more than a decade. Figures disclosed last October revealed that the navy had met only 60 per cent of its recruitment target in 2023, when only 2,450 people signed up against a target of 4,040. (Source: The Times)
16 Jan 25. Only two of 49 MoD projects are on time and on budget. Dozens of military schemes are delayed and many of their problems have no chance of being resolved, a report reveals. A growing number of major defence projects are over budget and unlikely to be delivered by their current deadline, new analysis reveals.
Just two of the Ministry of Defence’s 49 military programmes are running on time and on budget, according to the Infrastructure and Projects Authority’s annual report.
Sixteen per cent of the schemes were given a red rating, meaning that the issues preventing their completion to the original specification appear to be unfixable.
There were also more programmes where their completion on time and on budget were considered unachievable last year compared with the year before.
Among those is the Protector drone system, based at RAF Waddington in Lincolnshire. The system, intended to replace the ageing fleet of Reaper drones, saw its delivery confidence assessment downgraded from an amber rating to a red one.
The cost for the programme has soared by hundreds of millions of pounds in recent years and delays have mounted.
A defence source said progress on the programme had been made since the report was first written six months ago. The new drones are expected to enter service this year.
Seven of the 16 drones have been accepted into UK ownership and are undergoing testing. The report covers the 12 months to June 2024, the final year of the previous government.
Red-rated projects refer to those with “major issues with project definition, schedule, budget, quality … which at this stage do not appear to be manageable or resolvable”.
Of the 52 major defence projects on the list for 2022-23, 10 per cent were rated red. In the latest list, 16 per cent were rated red. John Healey, the defence secretary, has previously pledged to reform the process to avoid long delays and money being wasted.
A Labour Party spokesman said: “This Labour government is working night and day to fix the broken procurement system we inherited, reform defence and get a grip on Tory delays and overspends.” (Source: The Times)
16 Jan 25. Norway and France to boost defence cooperation. Norway and France have signed a letter of intent to expand and strengthen their defence and security policy cooperation, the Norwegian defence ministry said on Thursday. Norway’s Defence Minister Bjoern Arild Gram and French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu met in Oslo to sign the agreement. The two countries plan enhanced cooperation on exercises and training in Norway and will work together to counter hybrid threats to critical infrastructure such as undersea cables and energy supply lines, the Norwegian ministry said in a statement. The two ministers also discussed enhanced defence materiel cooperation, Norway said. (Source: Reuters)
13 Jan 25. NATO seeks agreement on new goals for weapons and troops in summer, says top official. NATO Military Committee Chief Admiral Rob Bauer listens to the media as Latvia celebrates the anniversary of joining the alliance in Riga, Latvia March 28, 2024. NATO aims to bring forward a decision on new targets for weapons and troop numbers to this summer, a top military official said on Monday, referring to the alliance’s biggest overhaul since the Cold War as it faces what it sees as a growing threat from Russia. The Western military and political alliance has been under pressure not only in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine but also internally, with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump calling on its members to spend much more on defence. NATO defence ministers will seek to reach a deal on new capability targets a few weeks before their leaders meet in The Hague on June 24-26, the chief of the bloc’s Military Committee, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, told Reuters in an interview.
“We’re going to look for an agreement before the summit in the Hague,” Bauer said, “to make sure that if there are any remaining problems, then that can be solved, and if necessary, by the leaders.” (Source: Reuters)
13 Jan 25. Biggest European allies to swiftly implement new NATO targets, Berlin says. Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius attends a meeting with European defence ministers at the Representative Centre of the Ministry of National Defence, in Pruszkow, Poland, January 13, 2025. Germany, Poland, Britain, France and Italy will implement as swiftly as possible new NATO targets for weapons and troop numbers which the alliance is about to agree upon, German Defence Minister Pistorius pledged on Monday.
The chief of NATO’s Military Committee, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, told Reuters earlier that the alliance aims to bring forward the decision on new targets for weapons and troop numbers to this summer.
The Western military and political alliance has been under pressure not only in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine but also internally, with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump calling on its members to spend much more on defence.
A NATO summit in The Hague at the end of June will also discuss hiking NATO’s existing military spending target of 2% of national GDP, with 3% being floated by some experts as one potential new target. Trump, who returns to the White House on Jan. 20, recently urged a 5% goal. (Source: Reuters)
13 Jan 25. Rutte says NATO must spend smarter on defence or face bill of 3.7% of GDP. NATO chief Mark Rutte said on Monday the alliance’s military capability targets may require members to spend as much as 3.7% of GDP on defence but this figure could be reduced with innovation and joint procurement. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said last week that NATO members should dedicate 5% of their GDP to defence – a level analysts said would be politically and economically impossible for almost all of the alliance’s 32 members. NATO estimated that 23 of its members met its current goal of spending 2% of GDP in 2024.
“The 2% is not enough,” Rutte told a European Parliament committee session in Brussels.
New military capability targets emerging from NATO’s internal planning process indicate the alliance would need “north of 3%,” he said. But he added that joint buying of weapons and equipment, as well as innovation, could reduce the amount of funding required. (Source: Reuters)
03 Jan 25. Spend 3pc on defence or embolden Putin, military grandees tell Starmer. Former first sea lord and former chief of general staff criticise Prime Minister’s 2.5 per cent target as ‘bloody dangerous‘ and ‘worrying.’ Military leaders who served under Labour have called on Sir Keir Starmer to increase defence spending to at least 3 per cent of GDP or risk emboldening Vladimir Putin. Lord West, the former first sea lord, and Lord Dannatt, the former chief of the general staff, told The Telegraph that Sir Keir’s current target of 2.5 per cent was insufficient. Both men linked Britain’s military spending with its ability to deter Russia, as Putin tries to tighten his grip on eastern Ukraine. The interventions will pile pressure on the Prime Minister to go further and faster than he has indicated is probable in recent months. Sir Keir has said he aims to raise defence spending from the current level of 2.3 per cent of GDP to 2.5 per cent, but he is yet to unveil a timeline for the plan. He scrapped Rishi Sunak’s target of doing so by 2030. The timeline is expected to be revealed around June 2025, after the completion of Labour’s Strategic Defence Review, launched after their general election victory in July. But Sir Keir’s decision to wait almost a year into office before announcing a timeframe for the increase has faced criticism, while the debate over the correct level of defence spending is also intensifying.
The Telegraph reported last month that Nato is considering raising its formal target from 2 per cent to 3 per cent.
Donald Trump returns to the White House on Jan 20 and is also expected to call on European allies to increase defence spending.
Former Tory defence secretaries have been vocal in petitioning Sir Keir to go further and faster in his ambitions too.
Lord West held a succession of senior military posts under New Labour, including chief of defence intelligence, commander in chief fleet and first sea lord between 2002 and 2006. He was also Gordon Brown’s security minister.
He told The Telegraph: “It should go up to 3 per cent immediately. I think Labour’s position of waiting until after the Strategic Defence Review and then doing it in the financial statement in June next year is ludicrous.
“Putin is following all of this. It is bloody dangerous in my opinion.”
Lord West added: “We might even find more is needed than 3 per cent. Russia is spending around 40 per cent of its GDP on defence and that is really worrying.”
Lord Dannatt was chief of general staff for the British Army between 2006 and 2009, meaning he held the post under both Sir Tony Blair and Mr Brown.
He told The Telegraph: “My position is based on looking at the situation at the world today and also reflecting on the huge under-funding of defence since the Cold War.
“During the Cold War we were spending between 4 and 5 per cent of GDP on defence. Because of that level of military capability, we deterred the Soviet Union and as a result of that the Cold War never turned hot.
“We have been slashing and reducing defence spending successfully ever since then and as a result of that, our Army, Navy and Air Force are woefully under-resourced.
“There is a strong argument [that] 2.5 per cent is going in the right direction, but 3 or 3.5 per cent is what needs to be spent to maintain our position as a tier-one partner in Nato, both in military capability and nuclear capability.”
However, achieving such increases would involve finding many bns of pounds more in spending and comes at a time when the Treasury is asking government departments to make 5 per cent of efficiency savings over coming years. Pushing up defence spending from its current 2.3 per cent level of GDP to 2.5 per cent would cost around £7bn more a year, according to the Royal United Services Institute, a leading defence think tank. Increasing it from 2.3 per cent to 3 per cent – as the two former commanders are suggesting – would cost around £20bn a year extra. That is roughly equivalent to a third of the annual schools budget for England. The Strategic Defence Review is being led by Lord Robertson, the former Labour defence secretary who once headed up Nato. It is taking a wide view of the defence challenges facing Britain over the coming years and what capabilities the UK should prioritise. It will help to shape what the expected defence budget rise will be spent on. A greater focus on the technologies of the future is expected. Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, is conducting a spending review that will be unveiled in June, outlining how much each department will receive to spend until the next general election. Ms Reeves has said she will not announce new revenue-raising moves such as tax rises in the spring and that all spending must be kept within the overall “envelope” set in the autumn. That means, if the position holds, that the defence spending increases announced will have to be financed with existing money, potentially meaning cuts elsewhere in government. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
10 Jan 25. Finland to protect Icelandic airspace as first time Nato member. Iceland, lacking its own air force, relies on Nato allies for aerial surveillance and interception capabilities. Finland is set to deploy a detachment of four F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets and 50 airmen to Iceland, marking its inaugural participation in Nato’s Icelandic Air Policing mission. This deployment, which is to take place in February 2025, is part of Nato’s principle of collective defence. This principal includes member states collaborating to maintain the security and integrity of Allied airspace through missions such as Air Policing and Air Shielding. Iceland, lacking its own air force, relies on Nato allies for aerial surveillance and interception capabilities to fulfil its peacetime preparedness requirements. Finnish Air Force major general Timo Herranen said: “Finland’s participation in the Nato Icelandic Air Policing mission will strengthen the Alliance’s presence in the High North. The deployment will be a concrete example of Nordic cooperation and the Finnish Air Force’s capability to carry out missions throughout Nato territory.
“The Norwegian and Danish Air Forces have regularly contributed to the Air Policing mission in Iceland, so this is a natural task for Finland as well. It is in line with Finland’s objectives that Nato has recognised the strategic importance of the High North.”
The Finnish contingent, drawn from the Lapland Air Wing and other Air Force units, will operate out of Keflavík Air Base, with the Icelandic Coast Guard managing the base and associated radar and communications sites. Material and personnel transport, as well as the ferrying of the Hornets from Finland to Iceland, will occur this month. Following a certification event by the Combined Air Operations Centre Uedem, the Finnish detachment will commence Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) duties for a three-week period in February, working in concert with Icelandic forces. During their QRA tenure, the Finnish jets will be armed to their standard configuration for territorial surveillance in Finland, equipped with air-to-air missiles, cannons, and countermeasures. Post-mission, the jets and most personnel will return to Finland, with all equipment repatriated by March. This mission represents Finland’s third Nato deployment, following security operations at the Nato Summit in Vilnius in July 2023 and participation in air policing and shielding activities in Romania in summer 2024. (Source: airforce-technology.com)
10 Jan 25. NATO won’t back Trump’s new defence spending target but will raise its sights.
- Summary
- Trump says NATO members should spend 5% of GDP on defence
- That call won’t fly for alliance members
- But some are ready to raise goal beyond current 2%
- Trump has said US won’t protect allies that don’t meet targets
- Some see new goal of around 3% to be agreed at June summit
NATO won’t heed Donald Trump’s proposal for a massive hike in defence spending but will likely agree to go beyond its current target, according to officials and analysts. The U.S. president-elect declared on Tuesday members of the military alliance should spend 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) on defence – a huge increase from the current 2% goal and a level that no NATO country, including the United States, currently reaches. Trump’s comments – at a press conference that also generated a blizzard of headlines on Greenland, Canada and Panama – were a reminder of his focus on NATO spending during his first term and his threats not to protect allies that fail to meet the target. Officials from NATO countries said they agreed defence spending needs to rise further but did not endorse the 5% figure, which analysts said would be politically and economically impossible for almost all members. It would require hundreds of billions of dollars in extra funding. However, a new target is likely to be agreed at a NATO summit in The Hague in June, spurred by fears that Russia may attack a NATO country after Ukraine and by Trump’s exhortations, officials said. The key open questions are what that new target will be and whether it will be enough to satisfy Trump. Some expect NATO’s 32 members to agree, after much wrangling, to a target of around 3% of GDP. But even that would be a stretch for many, who barely meet or fall short of the 2% goal now – a decade after it was set.
“It seems there will be a shift,” Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto told Reuters. “I don’t think it will be 5%, which would be impossible for almost every nation in the world right now but… it will not be two (percent), which we are already struggling to reach, but it will be more than two.”
Italy, with defence spending at around 1.5% of GDP, is among eight NATO members that do not meet the current target.
Poland, which borders Ukraine, is the NATO member that spends the highest share of GDP on defence – 4.12% last year, alliance estimates show. It is followed by Estonia with 3.43% and the United States with 3.38%.
NATO estimated the combined defence spending of its members at $1.474 trillion in 2024 – around $968bn from the United States and $507 bn from European nations and Canada. The overall average is about 2.71% of NATO GDP.
Some officials and analysts see Trump’s 5% suggestion as a deliberately high opening bid to kick off months of negotiations and expect he may settle for something closer to 3%.
During last year’s U.S. presidential election campaign, Trump proposed a 3% target, adding this would mean a defence budget increase of about 30% for most NATO countries.
SPENDING SURGE
Shocked by Russia’s war in Ukraine, many European countries have ramped up defence spending in recent years.
But with public finances tight, and defence spending not politically popular in some countries, it would not be easy for governments to find the extra bns that even a move to spend 3% of GDP on defence would entail.
While Trump has likened NATO defence spending to alliance membership fees, they reflect budgets set by national governments.
Fenella McGerty, a defence economics expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, said recent increases had been “remarkable” but it takes years for countries to start reaching new targets.
“Even if Europe were to continue that rate of quite extraordinary growth – in excess of 10% in real terms in 2024 – it would still take another 10 years to even get to 3% of GDP,” she said.
However, many European governments say the continent should do more to defend itself and rely less on the United States.
France and the Baltic states are pushing for joint European Union borrowing to fund defence spending. The outcome of that debate may depend on next month’s national election in Germany, which has so far opposed the idea.
To become more self-reliant, the European allies need to spend more to develop capabilities that the U.S. currently provides such as air-to-air refuelling, heavy-duty military air transport and electronic warfare, said Camille Grand, who previously served as NATO’s top official for defence investment.
“All of these things cost a lot of money. Some of them are big-ticket items,” said Grand, now with the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
The current security environment suggests European countries should be spending about 3% of GDP on defence, she said.
Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, chair of the European Parliament’s defence subcommittee, said Europe must ramp up spending but not fixate on an arbitrary figure.
“We need to mobilise a lot more money, but we shouldn’t let Trump drive us crazy,” she said. (Source: Reuters)
10 Jan 25. President Biden Issues an Amended Executive Order Taking Additional Steps With Respect to the Situation in the Western Balkans. President Biden has signed a new Executive Order (E.O.), “Taking Additional Steps with Respect to the Situation in the Western Balkans” to take additional steps with respect to the national emergency declared in Executive Order 13219 of June 26, 2001 (Blocking Property of Persons Who Threaten International Stabilization Efforts in the Western Balkans), as amended by Executive Order 13304 of May 28, 2003 (Termination of Emergencies With Respect to Yugoslavia and Modification of Executive Order 13219 of June 26, 2001), and expanded in scope by Executive Order 14033 of June 8, 2021 (Blocking Property and Suspending Entry Into the United States of Certain Persons Contributing to the Destabilizing Situation in the Western Balkans). The order is intended to provide additional prongs for targeting persons for designation under Executive Order 14033 and deter individuals from attempting to evade United States sanctions. This includes amendments to add attempt as a basis for designation throughout the order, add a prong for leadership of membership in a sanctioned entity, add a prong for ownership or control of a sanctioned person, and add a prong for being a spouse or adult child of a sanctioned person. (Source: glstrade.com)
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