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08 Aug 24. Eastern Europe’s armies struggle to enlist young people with war not far away.
- Former Soviet satellite state especially fearful of Russia
- Grapple with shortages of troops trained on modern weaponry
- Training camp for Czech high schoolers aims to boost enlistment
- Eastern NATO members try innovative recruitment strategies
As instructors shout commands, dozens of students taking part in a pilot Czech army programme aimed at boosting flagging enlistment numbers crawl through forest scrub carrying combat rifles and learning proper shooting positions.
Like most former Soviet-satellite states now in NATO, the Czech Republic has missed recruitment targets for years and struggled to maintain troop levels. This has left army units understaffed and unable to reach combat readiness, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, on eastern Europe’s fringes, a stark reminder of Moscow’s potential threat to the region.
Around 80 Czech high school students chose to spend part of their summer learning about army life at the four-week training programme being conducted in a closed military zone 94 km (58 miles) west of the capital Prague.
But General Karel Rehka, the Czech armed forces chief, has called the current system unsustainable.
He told Reuters the programme run by the 4th Rapid Deployment Brigade – an army unit operating at just 50 percent of capacity due to a dearth of soldiers – gives students an early taste of army life.
“We want to deter any potential adversary in the future,” Rehka said. “If we don’t do anything about the lack of human resources in the military…, it may mean that we won’t be able to preserve our peace and to deter any potential enemy.”
In 2021 the Czechs reached 56 percent of their recruiting goal, rising to 85 percent in 2022, according to the most recent army data.
The Czechs are not alone. Countries across eastern Europe have struggled to sign up new soldiers and keep experienced ones in a region where Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia all share a border with Ukraine.
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“We cannot do anything without people – if we modernise equipment and don’t have enough competent people and motivated people, that is all wasted money,” Rehka said.
EUROPEAN-WIDE PROBLEM
Western European nations in NATO face similar challenges. In July Reuters reported that NATO will need between 35 and 50 extra brigades to fully realise its new plans to defend against any attack on alliance territory from Russia.
But the issue hits closer to home for the eastern European countries that spent four decades under Soviet domination and have long warned about the threat from a more assertive Russia under President Vladimir Putin.
“We also see the probability of Russian aggression against us as not impossible…within a few years,” Czech former deputy defence minister Tomas Kopecny, Prague’s envoy on Ukraine reconstruction issues, told Reuters.
“So in case Russia attacks, we need to know we can count on a certain amount of soldiers and capabilities.”
Governments have turned to digital marketing campaigns, raised enlistment bonuses and considered options include a Czech defence ministry decree, effective Sept. 1, lowering the medical requirements for career soldiers, reservists and new recruits.
But with unemployment rates low across eastern Europe, a major challenge is convincing young people to enlist for less money than they can earn in the private sector.
“We have challenges. They are related to the fact that the labour market here is very competitive,” Major General Karol Dymanowski, First Deputy Chief of the General Staff of Poland’s armed forces, told Reuters.
NEW GENERATION OF SOLDIERS NEEDED
In Poland, government and military officials say they are hitting recruiting targets, planning to increase the recruitments limits, but critics question whether the goal to build an army comprising 300,000 soldiers is realistic.
Eastern Europe’s biggest country is also seeking to boost defence spending to near 5% of GDP and recently launched a recruitment campaign dubbed “Holidays With the Army”, which provides basic military training for citizens aged 18 to 35 over 28 days.
But defence ministry data show while the number of recruits rose in the latest available figures, a record 9,000 professional soldiers left the service in 2023.
While Dymanowski said it is a “natural process”, Colonel Bogdan Sowa, head of the Organization and Recruitment Directorate in Poland’s General Staff, explained there is a considerable group who leave the army just a few years after starting service. “We are trying to prepare more attractive offers for them, creating new financial incentives,” said Sowa.
Hungary’s military – which has not published updated recruitment numbers – has launched a media campaign using billboards, advertisements and a military-themed TV series to be aired by the end of 2024 to find new soldiers.
In Romania, the government began enlistment drives after recent defence ministry data showed 43 percent of officers’ positions were unfilled, along with the positions of 23 percent of soldiers and other professional ranks.
Romania has four Patriot missile defence batteries but only two are operational, while the government has bought a number of F-16 fighter jets but lacks enough trained pilots to fly them.
“One must look at what laws need to be changed, not only in Romania but in other countries, to incentivise these people (serving soldiers) to stay,” a defence source told Reuters.
Romania and other countries place their hopes on a new generation of soldiers like Czech high school student John Dunka who is taking part in the army’s summer camp near Prague and plans to enlist when he finishes school.
“Wearing this uniform includes a sense of pride,” Dunka said, holding an unloaded Bren 2 combat rifle while on a break from military drills. “With all that has happened in the world, I’m glad I can participate in a camp like this.” (Source: Reuters)
08 Aug 24. RAF to police NATO skies in Iceland following mission in Romania. This is the first time British F-35Bs will have taken part in any NATO air policing missions.
An F35B aircraft prepares to take off from RAF Marham on the way to police the skies above Iceland.
British F-35B jets have started arriving in Iceland this week to take part in a NATO air policing mission.
This mission will see RAF pilots from 617 squadron defending the alliance’s airspace in the Artic Region.
NATO air policing is a permanent peacetime mission, that preserves the security of Allied skies. It is a collective task and involves the continuous presence of fighter aircraft and crews, which are ready to react quickly to possible airspace violations.
This latest mission comes as the Prime Minister underlined the UK’s cast iron commitment to NATO at its Summit in Washington last month, as he emphasised his determination to safeguard the future of the Alliance and face down global threats to Britain and its western allies.
Minister for the Armed Forces, Luke Pollard said: “£The UK is unshakeable in its commitment to NATO. With threats increasing and growing Russian aggression, it is vital that we stand shoulder to shoulder with our allies.
This latest air policing mission in Iceland displays the UK’s ability to operate and deter our adversaries across the alliance’s airspace.”
Following a successful mission in Romania, where six Typhoon fighter jets and over two hundred personnel were stationed at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base, defending NATO’s eastern border, the RAF will now move to Iceland. This time, four cutting edge F-35B jets from 617 squadron will be patrolling Icelandic airspace, having travelled from RAF Marham.
This is the first time British jets have taken part in such activity in Iceland since 2019, when four Typhoon jets and flew 59 training sorties and more than 180 practice intercepts.
The F-35B Lightning is held at high readiness to deploy in support of UK and NATO operations Worldwide – from both land and sea.
It is a multi-role combat aircraft equipped with advanced sensors, mission systems and low observable stealth technology. This means that enemy radar systems cannot easily detect the aircraft, giving those nations operating the F-35B a significant tactical advantage in many operational scenarios.
Lightning Force Commander, Group Captain John Butcher said: “This will be the first time that the Lightning Force has deployed to contribute to NATO Air Policing, and will no doubt once again prove the flexibility that this platform offers as it demonstrates its capability to operate from both a land and maritime environment.”
RAF Typhoons and Voyagers also conduct air policing in the UK through the Quick Reaction Alert Force, based at RAF Coninsgby, Lossiemouth and Brize Norton, protecting UK airspace 24/7, 365 days a year. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
08 Aug 24. A New Broom Sweeps Clean.
The United Kingdom changed government after a general election on 4th July. Rishi Sunak, erstwhile prime minister, and his Conservative Party, conceded defeat to the Labour Party. Kier Starmer, the new prime minister, wasted little time rekindling the UK’s relations with her European allies. Ties with Britain’s continental neighbours had suffered since the UK’s decision to leave the European Union.
No sooner had the new government been formed than newly-appointed foreign secretary David Lammy headed to the airport for a whistle-stop visit of Britain’s German, Polish and Swedish allies. Mr. Lammy penned and published an article on the Foreign Office website entitled It’s time to reset Britain’s relations with Europe. In that piece, he promised the UK will be a “reliable partner, a dependable ally and a good neighbour.” Words are translating into actions. Mr. Lammy and his government is touting a new UK-European Union security pact.
To be fair, the previous government did start making progress. Despite no longer being an EU member, in 2022 the UK joined the union’s Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) framework. PESCO initiatives help combine Europe-wide expertise and know-how in the defence sector to overcome key challenges. The UK is involved with the Military Mobility PESCO. Meanwhile, the UK has robust defence partnerships with France, Germany and Italy.
Now is the time to expand this cooperation. The war in Ukraine continues to rage. The Baltic and Nordic states continue to face an existential threat from the continent’s Russian enemy. Ensuring tactical, operational and strategic electromagnetic superiority and supremacy for European nations vis-à-vis the Russian threat can only be achieved by working together. The British government should ask to participate in other PESCOs, particularly those related to defence electromagnetics writ large. PESCOs exist covering the cyber and information domains, secure networking, and command and control to name just three. Europe is a collection of medium-sized powers. Only by working together can the continent be a great power. The UK’s full-throated participation in collaborative European defence projects will make a valuable contribution to this goal. (Source: Armada)
06 Aug 24. Poised for growth, Turkish defense firms scramble for new exports. Turkish defense firm ASELSAN was the first Turkish company to crack the Top 100 in 2008 and has consistently
The Defense News Top 100 list of defense companies for 2024 includes five Turkish firms, up from four in 2023, amid rising global demand for Turkish defense products and increasing maturation of the Turkish defense industrial sector in terms of breadth and sophistication. Ranked Turkish companies include:
- ASELSAN (42, up from 47 last year): producer of defense electronics, especially communications and sensors. ASELSAN was the first Turkish company to crack the Top 100 in 2008 and has consistently been the leading Turkish defense revenue generator.
- Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI or TUSAS) (50, up from 58): leader in Turkish defense aerospace joined the Top 100 in 2012 and has been the second-ranked Turkish firm since.
- ROKETSAN (71, up from 80): producer of unguided rockets and guided missiles has seen revenues grow in large part due to integration of its products on Turkish unmanned systems
- Machine and Chemical Industry (MKE) (84, new): producer of small arms, artillery and ammunition; shifted from a state-owned enterprise to a joint stock company in 2022. Has helped meet booming demand for artillery and related munitions.
- Military Factory and Shipyard Enterprise (AFSAT) (94, new): aircraft, naval and land systems production and overhaul. Major deals with Pakistan (MILGEM) Burkina Faso/Togo (minesweepers).
Several intriguing aspects of this grouping stand out. First, Turkey occupies an elite tier among international arms producers. Only eight countries have more than two companies in the Top 100, and only three — the U.S., U.K. and China — have more Top 100 firms than Turkey.
The U.S. is in a class of its own, but with 25% defense export growth and $5.5bn revenue in 2023, the Turks have risen to near the top of the second tier.
Second, arguably the most dynamic sector in the Turkish defense industry — unmanned systems — has yet to produce a Top 100 firm, but seems poised to do so moving forward. BAYKAR, makers of the TB2 Bayraktar and Akinci Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles, has become the standard bearer for Turkish defense innovation and operational impact across various global hotspots.
TAI produces high-quality drones as well, and a half-dozen other companies have established Turkey as an innovation and price-performance leader in the field. That five Turkish companies not centered on unmanned systems made the Top 100 makes clear that an understanding of Turkish defense needs to look beyond the headline-generating drones.
Third, such growth could not have happened without an expanding network of clients and partners for the Turkish defense industry; while indigenization has increased the milli ve yerli (locally/nationally produced) portion of domestic defense needs, globally significant firms require foreign markets and partnerships. Turkish defense sector firms — there are over 3,500 total — have built partnerships with Ukraine, the U.K., Pakistan, Gulf countries and many others.
The Turkish Ministers of Defense (Yasar Guler) and Defense Industry (Haluk Gorgun) addressed a bilateral Defense Industrial Base conference in Washington on the sidelines of the recent NATO summit, and touted the Turkish defense sector as young, dynamic, enjoying unique access in the Mideast, Africa, Balkans, Central and South Asia — and uniquely positioned to partner with U.S. firms.
Guler assessed during the conference that Turkish exports in the first half of 2024 showed continued growth, up 20% year on year.
An interesting bit of context for this year’s Top 100 is the directed efforts in Washington and Ankara to deepen and broaden defense cooperation between the two NATO allies. The Turkish American Business Council (TAIK, headed by Murat Ozyegin) and the American Turkish Business Roundtable (ATBR, led by retired Gen. James Jones) have convened two conferences in 2024 to bring U.S. and Turkish firms together to explore areas for collaboration and cooperation in the defense sector.
With the example of the recently approved F-16 deal and joint venture for 155mm artillery ammunition between Turkish and American firms, we might expect to see many more such joint ventures emerge.
The Turkish defense industry still faces growing pains and dilemmas, though. The International Institute for Strategic Studies noted in a recent study that the Turkish defense industry is at a crossroads: Having increased self-sufficiency and developed significant export capabilities through defense sector indigenization, it has developed a new dependence on sustained exports and defense industrial cooperation for advanced subsystems.
Substantial autonomy does not mean full independence in the defense sector but rather continued complex interdependence. This implies that continued growth will require proactive consultation and mutual compromise between Ankara, Washington and NATO allies in Europe.
Another check on growth has been the Turkish government’s struggles with inflation, which is currently subject to a significant campaign of monetary tightening. Upward pressure on interest rates from the battle against hyperinflation has made domestic bank loans less attractive for developing small firms into major defense industrial players.
One solution has been for such firms to pursue public listing rather than domestic bank or government financing.
Demand remains high in the global market for the solid price-performance balance that has typified Turkish defense products. That augurs well for the continued growth of the five current Top 100-member Turkish firms and those aspiring to join the club.
If 2024 sees progress in Ankara’s efforts to bring down inflation, continued macroeconomic stability and sustained Great Power Competition, this year’s strong performance from the Turkish national defense sector should be reprised or accelerated over the next twelve months.
(Source: C4ISR & Networks)
06 Aug 24. Norway to join UK Navy deployment to Indo-Pacific next year.
Key NATO partner joins UK Carrier Strike Group global deployment in 2025.
Defence Secretary John Healey met Minister of Defence Bjørn Arild Gram in London.
Norway will join the UK’s Carrier Strike Group deployment to Japan and the Indo-Pacific region in 2025, Defence Secretary John Healey has announced today.
It comes as the Defence Secretary welcomed his Norwegian counterpart Bjørn Arild Gram to London today, where the Ministers discussed the maritime deployment, industrial collaboration, support to Ukraine and the urgent need for de-escalation in the Middle East.
The Carrier Strike Group, led by HMS Prince of Wales, one of Britain’s two aircraft carriers, and accompanied by her escorts and aircraft, will work alongside the Japanese Self Defence Forces and other partners to help defend peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
Norway is a long-standing NATO ally, and part of the Joint Expeditionary Force and Northern Group, whilst also being a strong trade partner with the UK. Their involvement will bolster the Strike Group with two ships, including one frigate, demonstrating that the security of the Euro-Atlantic region and Indo-Pacific is indivisible.
Defence Secretary, John Healey said: “This Government is determined to strengthen our partnerships with European allies to keep Britain secure at home and strong abroad. As a close strategic partner, we are delighted to have the Norwegian Navy join the Royal Navy on this historic deployment. It’s an exciting demonstration of the strength of our nations’ maritime partnership and the deepening of our relationship in the months and years to come.”
Norwegian Defence Secretary, Bjørn Arild Gram, said: “The UK is Norway’s closest and most important European Ally. We have a long-standing and very close defence relationship. With this joint deployment we are developing this cooperation even further. The Indo-Pacific is an area of growing importance for global security and stability, also for Europe.
During this deployment we will be able to operate with NATO and other important partners in this part of the world. Finally, during this deployment our Armed Forces will develop skills and proficiency from taking part in allied carrier operations. This is critically important for our national defence.”
The Carrier Strike Group deployment in 2025 highlights the strength of the UK’s determination to uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific. This has been bolstered by the Royal Navy’s persistent presence in the region through HMS Spey and HMS Tamar.
The deployment will last for around seven months and bring a range of military, security and prosperity benefits for the UK and participating nations. It will reinforce the UK’s commitment to global security, anchored on the NATO Alliance, but also build partnerships with those who share our world view around the globe.
A Carrier Strike Group is a versatile and lethal resource that few countries possess. Always led by an aircraft carrier embarked with F-35B Lightning jets, the rest of the UK formation can be made up of submarines, warships and support vessels, including from other allied navies. The Carrier Strike Group offers cutting-edge air, surface and underwater defence, but it is also a focal point for delivering wider strategic objectives. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
06 Aug 24. Kosovo: Closure of Serbian postal services will possibly drive domestic unrest in north. On 5 August, Kosovan police closed nine facilities of the Post of Serbia (Pošta Srbije) in the north of the country. The action was initiated due to information from the Regulatory Authority of Electronic and Postal Communications (ARKEP) suggesting that some operators were functioning without an economic license. The Post of Serbia serves Kosovo Serbs with various payments from the Serbian government, including salaries, child allowances and pensions. In May, Kosovan police closed six branches of a Serbian bank in the North Kosovo region, following the Central Bank of Kosovo’s decision to establish the euro as the sole currency. Such symbolic changes, including bans on Serbian license plates, have traditionally driven bilateral tensions and inflamed tensions in northern municipalities. As such, we assess that domestic unrest in North Kosovo is a realistic scenario, especially in light of elevated ethnic tensions in the region over the past year. However, the presence of NATO and EU peacekeeping forces will likely moderately mitigate this risk. (Source: Sibylline)
06 Aug 24. Background: with Parliament now in Recess until 2 September and Ministers in the new Government taking some time off after their intense and gruelling Election period and then 4 weeks of government, now seems to be a good moment to take stock of what has happened and what is happening.
At the same time, the world does not stand still and there is every certainty of course that the Recess will be overshadowed by fresh, grim developments in the conflicts in the Middle East and in Ukraine, obliging some form of UK Government response.
In addition, next month, we may have a clearer idea as to who will be in pole position to win the US Presidential election, with all that result implies for global politics and defence in 2025 and beyond, from eastern Europe to the Middle East to the South China Sea.
People: a reminder of the new MOD Ministerial team (headed by John Healey), with their particular responsibilities, can be found here, in the “Our Ministers” section. Note that Maria Eagle is “Minister for Defence Procurement and Industry”, the latter phrase a revealing and useful change of title.
Defence is of course too important to be left to the MOD, so as ever we need to factor in the views and influence of a series of other key political figures across Whitehall, whether Prime Minister Starmer, Foreign Secretary Lammy, Business Secretary Reynolds, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster McFadden – and, last but not least Chancellor Reeves (see below). Once the new Cabinet Committee lists are published (especially the composition of the National Security Council), that decision-making nexus will be clearer still.
(For the sake of completeness, the new Shadow Defence Secretary is James Cartlidge, aided by three more junior spokesmen; his Lib Dem counterpart is Richard Foord. Cartlidge may well be reshuffled into another role, once the new Tory Party Leader is announced on 2 November. Moreover, the Defence Select Committee will be chaired by a Labour MP but elections for that post will not take place until the House has returned).
SDR: Labour swiftly met its Manifesto commitment to hold a fresh strategic defence review with its announcement of 16 July. The headline process/political feature is perhaps Lord (George) Robertson’s role as lead “Reviewer”, illustrating the respect in which he is held as a former Labour Defence Secretary who conducted the 1998 Defence Review and went on to be NATO Secretary-General. The Review won’t report until the first half of 2025 but MOD would like submissions from all interested stakeholders by end September.
In geopolitical terms, the Government uses the mantra “NATO First” a lot (and the PM, Foreign and Defence Secretaries have already held intensive meetings in European capitals over improving the security architecture, including a “Defence Declaration” with Germany on 24 July) – but they have also pledged to continue all elements of AUKUS and to send the carrier PRINCE OF WALES on her scheduled deployment east of Suez next year. Earlier this year, John Healey suggested that he would make rapid changes to the MOD’s top structure but in practice his plans for a new National Armaments Director, a stronger central MOD and strategic HQ are proceeding at a slower pace. Watch this space.
Budget: In her no-nonsense statement of 29 July (in full, here) on the Government’s public spending inheritance, the Chancellor importantly set out the key UK autumn political date – 30 October – the Budget. In defence terms, as always happens with Reviews, this is when the SDR will start to get very obviously entangled in the spending review process. In other words, commentators will ask whether the SDR is strategy or resource led.
Final Departmental budgets for this year and budgets for next year – 2025-26 – will be set out alongside the Budget The longer-term spending review has already begun (departmental budgets to be set for at least three years ahead), with all Departments (including MOD) obliged to find some internal savings now. Moreover, the Chancellor is due to announce in October a road map as to how (fast) the commitment to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence will be achieved.
Procurement: There is no formal moratorium in defence procurement, with the SDR in train, although it is now “silly season” in journalistic terms – and major, ongoing speculation as to which programmes will make it through the process inevitable as such, typified by the GCAP controversy last month ahead of Farnborough. Rather, the MOD has continued to make a series of spending announcements including: £179m worth of additional light weight missiles (Martlets) from Thales; renewal of the £6.5 bn complex weapons partnership; and confirming £3bn a year to help Ukraine. But also note how MOD also moved rapidly to ensure that Armed Forces personnel receive a 6% pay rise, the largest in 22 years, an interesting reflection of possible priorities. Full announcement here.
(Source: MakeUK Defence)
04 Aug 24. A Tory Baroness has argued for the Government to provide the Royal Navy with more frigates as hull numbers could drop down to seven as vessels leave service. This comes as analysis from expert commentator NavyLookout reveals that the frigate fleet could drop to its lowest ever level in modern times.
Baroness Neville-Jones said: “The UK has an especially strong interest in holding the western alliance together. Over the years we have put a lot of eggs in that basket, and a close relationship with the US, as part of the wider Atlantic community, is part of the fabric of our own polity. No longer being in the EU means we are simultaneously less influential and more vulnerable to the effects of transatlantic disagreement and breaches of trust. My conclusion is that devoting resources to diplomacy in Washington is top of the list of priorities, since failure of the alliance will not just destroy our ability to deal with all the other wider threats that we confront in the Middle East and China; we will face the likelihood of a wider war in our continent. Secondly, I turn to China. The integrated review recognised the challenge that China poses militarily, politically and economically, and the Conservative Government made an important and constructive move in AUKUS, which helps join the Atlantic and Pacific worlds and increases the credibility of a European contribution to the political and military scene in the Asia-Pacific. I belong to those who believe that we should try to contribute to that part of the world. I hope that, in conducting the defence review, the noble Lord, Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, in whom I have great confidence, is able to build on AUKUS. There is no doubt that, to keep the Americans with us, Europeans must spend more on defence, especially on the security of our own continent. I am not suggesting that the Indo-Pacific has any real priority. We cannot credibly ask the Americans to take our security more seriously than we do. I think it is time for the UK to respond to the changing global balance of power by giving the Royal Navy a greater role in, and a greater reach of, our defence diplomacy—more ships, in the words of the noble Lord, Lord West, particularly frigates. It is also time that we had a China strategy that joins up our political, economic and military objectives. It is something that we do not have and badly need. I do not believe in keeping countries guessing; that is dangerous. We did not keep the Russians guessing about our terms during the Cold War and we should not do so with the Chinese. We need to say what we mean to them.”
Later in the discussion, Lord Coaker, Minister of State for the Ministry of Defence, stated: “I thank my noble friend for his important question. Whether it is aircraft carriers and planes, the number of soldiers, technology or other capabilities, you have to have the capability you need to meet the threat that you face. My noble friend is right to point that out. That is the fundamental principle that underlies the review of the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, and why he will be working closely with others. I say to all noble Lords that it is an open review and anyone is welcome to contribute to it.” (Source: UKDJ)
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