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29 May 24. As European elections near, defence “sovereignty” sought in peace awards speech. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen repeats call for European defence integration ahead of potentially seismic elections in June.
As elections for the European Parliament draw closer ahead of the opening of polls on 6 June 2024, the head of the European Commission, President Ursula von der Leyen, has said that the continent of Europe can only be considered a sovereign region if it “can defend itself” amid the backdrop of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
In a speech intended to mark the award to French President Emmanuel Macron’s of the International Peace of Westphalia Prize on 28 May, von der Leyen took the opportunity to once again press for a European defence union as an obvious continuation of the European political union set up decades ago.
Von der Leyen, in her speech, claimed that Europe was “moving towards more sovereignty in the realm of defence” as countries seek to reestablish defence capabilities in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
“The past few years have clearly shown us that if we want to defend peace on our continent, we have to develop our own European might. And that is precisely why it is right and proper that defence budgets in Europe are growing and we are investing more in our defence industry,” said von der Leyen.
“For this reason, work on a European defence union is also appropriate. The initiative for an air defence shield is an illustration of this new European mission.”
Von der Leyen’s citing of ‘Europe’ refers to the 27 countries that are members of the European Union (EU), excluding non-EU or European Economic Area (EEA) countries such as the United Kingdom, Norway, Liechtenstein, and Iceland.
Of the latter four countries, only the UK is not a member of the EEA, which allows access to the EU’s Single Market in exchange for concessions on law and other matters.
EU elections: defence thrust front and centre
With Russia’s war in Ukraine ongoing the defence sector has been pushed to the front of the continent’s politics, with an emergent zeitgeist for an increasing in spending. European Union member states had increased national defence budgets by 20% from 2023, according to von der Leyen, speaking in February.
Nato also announced earlier this year that it expected 18 of its members to reach the 2% defence spend benchmark as a proportion of national GDP. Of the 32 Nato states, 30 of them are European countries, although not all are EU members, such as the UK and Türkiye.
The future composition of the European Parliament – to be determined in elections from 6-9 June – will play a significant role in the direction of travel for EU members in the coming years amid a rise in populist figureheads coming to power.
European Parliament groups such as the European People’s Party (EPP) broadly follow the same lines as von der Leyen, unsurprising given the EPP’s March nomination of von der Leyen as the lead Christian Democrat candidate for the European elections. The nomination is essential for the incumbent EC president to return to her post for the next term.
However, The Left Group in the European Parliament (GUE/NGL) takes an opposite view to European defence needs, posting an April 2024 blog titled ‘Weaponising influence: EU falls for arms lobby charm offensive’, calling out military spending amid a cost-of-living crisis.
EC echoes familiar themes on European defence
As former defence minister of Germany, von der Leyen has history in the sector, and has sought to rally the cause behind greater integration of European defence spending and eschew the current reliance on US capabilities.
However, von der Leyen’s period as German defence minister from 2013-2019 was not without controversy, as the Bundeswehr struggled for funding amid an equipment readiness crisis, turning up to one Nato exercise with painted broom handles in place of vehicle-mounted machine guns.
In a speech at the European Parliament Plenary on 28 February, von der Leyen said member states should increase collaboration in defence spending as the EU looks to become a more independent actor on the global stage.
Referencing the need to “rebuild, replenish, and modernise” military capabilities among member states’ armed forces, von der Leyen said that Europe should “strive to win the next generation of battle winning operational capabilities” through a “turbocharging” of the defence industrial capacity over the next five years.
Initiatives such as the European Industrial Defence Strategy, along with the European Defence Investment Programme, are some of the structures through which EU and EC leaders will look to drive greater integration.
Current EU collaborative defence programmes are generally of a modest nature, such as the 6×6 CAVS platform on land, or the European Patrol Corvette at sea. Germany and France are also working to develop a new main battle tank (MBT) to replace their Leopard 2 and Leclerc MBTs, although this has achieved little progress since its launch in 2017.
Historically, bilateral and multilateral defence programmes, driven by the countries themselves rather than at the supranational level, have had greater success in European defence procurement, as seen with platforms like the UK-German-Italian-Spanish Eurofighter or French-Italian FREMM frigates. (Source: army-technology.com)
29 May 24. Europe has only a fraction of the air defence capabilities needed to protect its eastern flank, according to Nato’s own internal calculations, laying bare the scale of the continent’s vulnerabilities. Russia’s war against Ukraine has underscored the importance of air defence, as Kyiv begs the west for additional systems and rockets to protect its cities, troops and energy grid against daily bombing raids. But according to people familiar with confidential defence plans drawn up last year, Nato states are able to provide less than 5 per cent of air defence capacities deemed necessary to protect its members in central and eastern Europe against a full-scale attack. One senior Nato diplomat said the ability to defend against missiles and air strikes was “a major part of the plan to defend eastern Europe from invasion”, adding: “And right now, we don’t have that.” Nato foreign ministers will gather in Prague on Thursday for two days of talks aimed at preparing for a summit of the alliance’s leaders in Washington in July, where beefing up European defence will be a central topic. Some European leaders and military officials have said that Russia could have the capability to attack a Nato member state by the end of the decade. In a major defence review last year, the UK government described the “challenge of protecting . . . against attack from the skies” as being “its most acute for over 30 years”. Russia’s heavy use of missiles, drones and highly destructive Soviet-era “glide bombs” in Ukraine has added urgency to Nato members’ efforts to ramp up defence spending after decades of military budget cuts. “[Air defence] is one of the biggest holes we have,” said a second Nato diplomat. “We can’t deny it.” The failure of European Nato states in recent months to provide additional air defence equipment to Ukraine has underscored the continent’s limited stocks of the expensive and slow-to-manufacture systems. It has also prompted a series of overlapping initiatives to try to find long-term solutions. Last year, Germany launched its Sky Shield initiative with more than a dozen other EU countries to develop a shared air defence system using US and Israeli-developed technology. However, France has publicly criticised the proposal and offered a rival concept backed by a smaller number of allies. Recommended War in Ukraine Poland moves to reinforce borders with Belarus and Russia Last week, Poland and Greece called on the European Commission to help develop and potentially assist in the financing of a pan-European air defence system, a proposal that commission president Ursula von der Leyen indicated she would support. Some EU capitals have suggested raising common debt to fund defence projects. In a letter sent to von der Leyen, Greek and Polish prime ministers Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Donald Tusk described air defence as a “major vulnerability in our security”, adding that the war in Ukraine has “[taught] us lessons that we can no longer ignore”. The proliferation of cheap, long-range attack drones, as used by Russia against Ukraine, has added to these concerns. “Long-range strikes are no longer a superpower capability,” said one western defence official. A Nato official said that “capability targets and defence plans are classified” but added that air and missile defences “are top priorities” and that “stockpiles have been reduced”. “Nato’s new defence plans also significantly increase air and missile defence requirements in quantity and readiness,” the official said, adding that countries were investing in new air defence capabilities including fighter jets. “So we are confident that Nato’s deterrence against Russia remains strong,” they added. Immediately after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US deployed a Patriot battery air defence system to protect an airport in southern Poland that became a hub for shipping western weapons to Kyiv. But officials say Nato members have so few such systems to spare that their capacity to deploy any more beyond their own territories is severely limited. In the UK, the Royal Navy’s six Type 45 destroyers are equipped with ballistic missile defence systems, but the vessels have been dogged by design flaws. The British army also has six state-of-the-art Sky Sabre ground-based air defence systems, but their missile interceptors only have a range of about 40km, and two of the systems are overseas. “The UK’s air defence capability is entirely inadequate,” said Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank in London. Full integration of Europe’s various air defence systems could help compensate for the shortfall by creating a dense mesh of sensors and interceptors across the continent. But “attempts to update Nato’s command and control infrastructure for air defence have never gotten off the ground”, Watling said. (Source: FT.com)
29 May 24. Poland will fortify its border with Russia’s ally Belarus as early as next week in response to what Warsaw says is a “ruthless hybrid war” waged by Moscow to destabilise its western neighbours. Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister who visited the Belarus border on Wednesday, announced the reintroduction of a buffer zone at the frontier to stop illegal migrants being pushed into the EU by Russia. Tusk has made stronger border security a priority since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, recently pledging to spend 10bn zlotys ($2.5bn) to fortify Poland’s borders with Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and make them “impregnable” to an attack. Speaking alongside Tusk, defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said Poland would send more soldiers and police to the border to respond to “a ruthless hybrid war”. Warsaw is accusing Russia and Belarus of sponsoring a new attempt to push large numbers of African and Middle Eastern migrants into Poland illegally, one of several recent moves by Russia and its ally to test its land and maritime borders with EU states as the Ukraine war grinds on. In 2021, the EU had already accused Belarus of launching “hybrid warfare” by facilitating flights for migrants to Minsk, from which they were then taken to the borders with Poland and the Baltic states and encouraged to attempt to enter the EU. Poland’s then government responded by building a 5-metre-high fence along part of its border with Belarus. Tusk said that a 200-metre buffer zone could be enforced as early as next week along the Belarus border. “We are dealing with an organised, very efficient on many levels, action of breaching the Polish border and trying to destabilise the state,” Tusk told a news conference in Dubicze Cerkiewne, a Polish village next to the Belarus border. The visit by Tusk and Kosiniak-Kamysz took place a day after a Polish soldier was stabbed by a migrant who was standing on the other side of the border fence. The attack “testifies to an organised action . . . against the security of those who protect our border, who take care of our security”, Kosiniak-Kamysz said. Tusk’s government says 90 per cent of the migrants intercepted recently were carrying Russian visas. The government has also blamed Russia and Belarus for several other recent incidents. Tusk announced last week the arrest of nine people accused of preparing Russia-backed sabotage plots on its territory and possibly in other EU states, in particular arson attacks. Poland is also among six Nato countries that are planning to develop a “drone wall” to help defend their borders with Russia after a series of provocations, including attempts by Moscow to redraw its maritime borders in the Baltic Sea. Tusk’s pro-EU coalition took office in December. Ahead of next month’s elections to the European parliament, Tusk is also turning the tables on the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party by accusing PiS of failing to guarantee Poland’s security during its eight years in power, including by allowing foreign agents to infiltrate the country’s judiciary. This month Poland issued an arrest warrant for a Polish judge who defected to Minsk. Last year it was PiS that accused Tusk of being a stooge of foreign powers, including Russia. The then PiS government even sought to pass a law to prosecute Tusk and others for serving the interests of Russia, which sparked a strong public backlash and helped Tusk defeat PiS in the national elections. The reinforced border security is reviving a debate over whether Poland is breaching its EU obligations to those migrants who are entitled to seek asylum and pushing them back illegally after they cross the Polish border. The Polish authorities denied any illegal pushbacks, but a group of Polish non-governmental organisations issued a joint statement to denounce ongoing abuses. “Prime Minister Donald Tusk talks about the need to protect the borders, we do not dispute this,” the NGOs said. “However, the actions of the services on the border so far have nothing to do with preparations for a potential attack from the east.” Polish border guards “are hitting defenceless people seeking asylum, condemning them to the mortal danger of the Belarusian system”, the statement said. (Source: FT.com)
29 May 24. Romania’s military modernization efforts to offer market entry routes for defense firms, says GlobalData. As a former member of the Warsaw Pact, Romania still possesses large volumes of aging Cold War equipment. In order to meet North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) standards, Romania can either outright replace such models with modern, Western equipment or heavily modify units to bring these platforms in line with NATO’s STANAG (Standardization Agreement) documents. Both options create significant business opportunities for firms interested in the Romanian market, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s latest report, “Romania Defense Market 2024-2029,” reveals that, as a share of the overall defense budget, Romania’s acquisition spending is expected to rise considerably from 33.8% in 2020 to 45.2% by 2029. This exceptionally high percentage is driven by the replacement of old equipment and efforts to revitalize domestic defense production.
Wilson Jones, Defense Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “With the Ukraine War, purchasing Russian equipment parts has become both uneconomical and politically difficult, increasing the likelihood of new system acquisition, and the age of Soviet-era equipment means many of these platforms are reaching their natural end of service life. However, Romania’s limited economy and real acquisition budget limits its ability to purchase entirely new fleets of vehicles.”
Historically, Romania has opted to exercise the two options that it has to modernize its military. The Romanian Army’s TR-85 MBT is an example of modernization, originally being a licensed version of the T-55 that has now been modernized with sabot ammunition, German engines, Western fire control computers, and advanced sensors. Additionally, Romanian BMPs have been modified to carry Western armaments, simplifying logistics by making ammunition requirements common with NATO allies. At the same time, the MOWAG Piranha APC and F-35A fighter purchases are examples of new system acquisition.
Jones continues: “Romania’s defense budget until 2022 followed a trend broadly similar across most of Europe, and more specifically the NATO alliance: a period of slight fluctuation and stagnation, followed by dramatic increases as the security situation deteriorated following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.”
Jones concludes: “The prominent role played by cruise missile attacks and UAVs in the war in Ukraine and the complex systems required to defend against them have transformed assumptions for how 21st century wars will be fought. These lessons will inform procurement decisions in NATO states going forward. Romania is acquiring Patriot batteries and operates Gepard anti-aircraft artillery that has proven itself useful in Ukrainian service. It will likely adjust its procurement policy to these new developments.” (Source: GlobalData)
28 May 24. Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC) and Andøya Space signed a Memorandum of Understanding formalizing their collaboration to support Norway’s Long Term Defense Plan. This includes developing advanced autonomous maritime intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities to meet Norway’s priorities. This partnership will catalyze innovation, stimulate economic growth and establish Andøya as a global leader in autonomous technology.
Experts:
Jane Bishop, vice president and general manager, global surveillance, Northrop Grumman: “Our partnership with Andøya Space marks a pivotal moment in our commitment to advancing autonomous capabilities together with Norwegian industry. As Norway considers its options for safeguarding its interests in the High North, Northrop Grumman and Andøya Space are ready to shape the future of advanced autonomous systems by leveraging the MQ-4C Triton to meet the needs of today and the future.”
Ketil Olsen, chief executive officer, Andøya Space: “Andøya Space and Northrop Grumman have a long and pioneering history within the aerospace industry. This collaboration will help find robust technological solutions to Norway’s needs and challenges in the north when it comes to maritime surveillance, safety and security.”
Additional Details:
Northrop Grumman is committed to supporting Norway and its NATO partners in ensuring the security of the High North. During a visit to Oslo in March 2024, Northrop Grumman Chair, CEO and President Kathy Warden stressed the importance of trusted industry partnerships to regional security and NATO’s technological edge when she met with Norwegian government and industry leaders. The company is forging enduring partnerships with Norwegian industry, having invested more than $1 bn in contracts since 2005.
As a technology powerhouse and prime systems integrator, Northrop Grumman delivers and sustains proven solutions to meet customers’ national security needs. Built for the U.S. Navy and Royal Australian Air Force, the multi-intelligence MQ-4C Triton represents the most advanced maritime intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capability deployed today. The platform supports a wide range of missions including maritime patrol, signals intelligence and search and rescue. Force and fleet commanders receive Triton’s persistent surveillance data to help predict an adversary’s behavior, enable better planning and enhance joint military response and operations.
28 May 24. Lithuania: Incumbent’s victory indicates broad continuity; improved relations with China are possible. On 27 May, incumbent President Gitanas Nausėda won the second round of the presidential election by securing nearly 70% of the vote. Nausėda beat Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonyte. The president plays an important role in Lithuania’s foreign and defence policy and represents the country at NATO and EU summits. Nausėda is a strong supporter of close co-operation with the EU and NATO and favours increased defence spending in light of the threat posed by Russia. We therefore assess that policy continuity is almost certain under Nausėda. Nonetheless, Nausėda espouses a conciliatory approach towards China. Relations between the two countries have recently deteriorated over a dispute regarding the de-facto Taiwanese embassy in the capital Vilnius. Nausėda favours the embassy adopting ‘Taipei’ in its title, which is common diplomatic practice (as China perceives Taiwan to be a breakaway region). We assess that this approach will possibly help to improve diplomatic and economic ties between Lithuania and China. (Source: Sibylline)
27 May 24. The EU and US have been “too soft” on Serbia and should set a deadline for it to adopt sanctions on Russia, the Kosovan prime minister has said. Albin Kurti said Belgrade needed to side with the west against Moscow in order to give Kosovo reassurance that it was committed to normalising relations. Brussels and Washington “need to change their approach and give a timeline to Serbia . . . to put sanctions on the Russian Federation and to quit trying to sit on three or four stools”, Kurti told the Financial Times in an interview. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has maintained close ties with the Kremlin and Beijing while pursuing membership in the EU and a constructive relationship with Washington. Vučić has refused to implement sanctions against Russia but has allowed Serbian-made ammunition to be delivered to Ukraine. “Once Serbia puts sanctions on the Russian Federation, then that would be a moment when they would show that they want to get integrated into EU, and Serbia without Russia cannot threaten the security of the continent. So then, I could trust that they basically want peace. And US and EU would not try to appease them anymore.” Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008 and relations remain tense. The region is still regarded by diplomats and analysts as a powder keg. EU negotiators, with US support, last year brokered a tentative deal under which Serbia would informally recognise Kosovo’s statehood while Pristina would provide a degree of self-governance for 10 municipalities with Serb majorities. The agreement was never implemented and tensions flared over Kosovan authorities attempting to assert full authority over Serbian-majority areas in northern Kosovo. In September there was a shootout between Kosovan police and dozens of Serbian paramilitaries that had barricaded themselves in a monastery in northern Kosovo. Belgrade denied any involvement in the attack even though the paramilitaries had a large cache of Serbian-made weapons. Kurti’s relations with Brussels and Washington have been badly strained by what western officials regard as his heavy-handed and counter-productive attempts to tighten Pristina’s grip on Serbian-majority areas. After Serbs boycotted local elections last year, Pristina installed the ethnic-Albanian mayors who had won by default in Serbian-majority areas, sometimes with only a handful of votes. Kosovo has also deployed heavily armed special police to the north. Last week Kosovan police raided several branches of a Serbian bank in the north of the country and seized Serbian currency. The dinar was outlawed as a means of exchange in Kosovo earlier this year even though many of Kosovo’s Serbs are paid salaries or pensions in the currency. Kosovo uses the euro. Kurti, who has been premier for three years and faces elections next year, said the restrictions stemmed from his country’s constitution, which stipulates only one means of payment. He said two-thirds of Serbs received benefits from Kosovo in euros. The prime minister declined to say when Pristina would pull its special police back from the northern municipalities but insisted that complaints from Serbs about their presence were receding. Kurti conceded there are “sometimes differences” with his European and US allies “when it comes to strategies, operations and tactics on the ground on one hand, and when it comes to relations with Serbia”, but not on values or principles. (Source: FT.com)
23 May 24. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said he was seeking to “redefine” the terms of Nato membership due to his long-standing opposition to aiding Ukraine against Russia’s war. “Our lawyers and officers are working [to define] how Hungary can exist as a Nato member without taking part in Nato operations outside Nato territory,” Orbán told national radio on Friday. The Hungarian leader has refused to send military aid to Kyiv and has repeatedly delayed EU sanctions on Russia in response to Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He is also adamantly opposed to Nato training Ukrainian soldiers in Ukraine. “There have not been many situations in the history of Nato when a member state would stick to the basic idea of Nato as openly and clearly as Hungary does now, and therefore . . . its position within the military alliance would have to be redefined,” Orbán said. His position is that Ukrainian forces cannot win on the battlefield, that the west should avoid a conflict with Russia by any means and that Kyiv should agree to an immediate ceasefire. The US has said a ceasefire now would amount to capitulation. Orbán’s comments appear to have come in response to recent proposals by several Nato members for the alliance to train Ukrainian troops in Ukraine rather than in other European countries. They also come six weeks before Nato’s annual leaders summit in Washington where the alliance is seeking to draw up a fresh long-term support strategy for Ukraine’s military. The Hungarian military has participated in Nato missions abroad, including in Afghanistan and Iraq, and has led the alliance’s KFOR peacekeeping effort in Kosovo. Orbán acknowledged his position was turning Hungary into an outlier within the alliance but said he refused to back down. “It is as if everyone is already in a different future. They simply refuse to consider these arguments beyond a polite hearing,” he said. “And war planning is going on.” He added: “We indicated in advance that we do not approve of this, and we do not want to participate in financial or armament support, not even within the framework of Nato. Therefore, our situation is a strange ‘we are there, but we are not’ situation. I don’t know how long this can be maintained.” Hungary is considered a “non-participant” country, he added, but it is working on a clearer definition. “If we were to opt out, our participation in Nato’s military structure and our situation would also change,” he said. Nato did not immediately respond to a request for comment. (Source: FT.com)
23 May 24. 25 years since it became a member of NATO, the Czech Republic has signed an agreement to establish the IISS Prague Defence Summit. Designed to inspire major public debate on the range of issues affecting European and transatlantic defence capability development, the Prague Defence Summit will convene senior government leaders, defence officials, senior industry representatives, analysts and the media to discuss challenges and opportunities for European defence capability development. Its inaugural staging is due to take place between November 8-10 2024.
In the year of the 75th anniversary of the NATO Alliance, the event will further continue the Czech Republic’s tradition as an engine for new initiatives regarding the improvement of NATO’s operational capabilities, dating back to the 2002 Prague Capabilities Commitment (PCC).
The IISS Prague Defence Summit explicitly aims to translate wider policy goals into a specific implementation agenda focused on defence innovation and procurement. Therefore, key reference points for the plenary sessions would be defence industrial cooperation, advances in the military applications of emerging and potentially disruptive technologies, as well as the requirements for fighting and winning major wars in a multi-domain context.
Dr Jan Jireš, Director General, Defence Policy and Strategy Division in the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic, said, “The Czech government is delighted to be able to partner with the IISS. Our ambition is to make Prague one of the centres of the global discussions on the future of conflict and on defence policies and defence capabilities needed to address these challenges. We hope the Prague Defence Summit will emerge as Europe’s premier defence-focused event.”
Bastian Giegerich, Director-General and Chief Executive of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said, “We are delighted that the Government of the Czech Republic has decided to support the establishment of the IISS Prague Defence Summit. It will permit and facilitate bilateral, mini-lateral and multilateral informal discussions among leaders, enabling informal but effective defence diplomacy, based on the model successfully developed with the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue and IISS Manama Dialogue.”
“These events are widely recognised by governments and the defence community as core elements in the fabric of defence diplomacy in their respective regions. Following a successful inaugural Prague Defence Summit, we aim to move to a multi-year agreement to establish the Prague Defence Summit as the premier Euro-Atlantic Dialogue on defence planning, military capability and industrial capacity.
“We look forward to working with the Government of the Czech Republic on this important topic.”
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