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14 Apr 24. Serbia is expected to sign the largest weapons deal in its modern history with France, in a sign how Russia’s war in Ukraine is prompting one of Moscow’s closest allies to diversify its arms purchases. Belgrade is planning a €3bn order for a dozen French Rafale fighter jets from Dassault Aviation, marking a long-term commitment to the west after decades of relying on Russian aircraft. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić has frustrated European capitals by refusing to join western sanctions against the regime of Vladimir Putin and by keeping Serbia open for Russian business — while still maintaining its bid to join the EU. But as pressure from Europe and the US increased, Vučić started to allow shipments of Serbian-made ammunition to Ukraine, and to buy western weapons in addition to Chinese and Russian systems currently in use by the Serbian armed forces. “The contract is expected to be signed in the next two months and in the presence of the president of France,” Vučić said in Paris last week after meeting French President Emmanuel Macron. “We are determined to buy new aircraft that would significantly improve our combat capabilities.” A Serbian defence official told the Financial Times that the deal was “negotiated more than 90 per cent” but that the two sides still had to agree on the financial terms. The war in Ukraine has “hastened diversification for us”, the official said.
“We have relied on Soviet-type technology, and we have some long tails, a need to maintain that equipment,” the official said. “Due to geopolitical circumstances now it is not even feasible — even if you wish — to buy from Russia anyway.” Macron has in recent months used increasingly hawkish rhetoric about the risk to European security if Russia is not defeated in Ukraine. He has also focused increasingly on countries that used to be in Russia’s sphere of influence, such as Moldova. His outreach to Vučić and support for Serbia joining the EU are part of that strategy, with the two leaders also discussing the former Yugoslav country’s role in European ammunition production. “Our economic relations have gotten a real boost . . . and we can go further,” said Macron after hosting Vučić in Paris. Discussions over defence contracts and energy projects “are a sign of political trust and a desire to expand our relations”. The Elysée palace declined to comment. Even as he lauded Vučić, Macron has also signalled he wants Serbia to take further steps towards the west, including by recognising Kosovo’s statehood. “It is important for Serbia to continue to make its European choices concrete, such as by aligning on our decisions on foreign policy.” Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić, left, met French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris last week © Sarah Meyssonnier/Pool/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock The Serbian official noted the change in tone: “Paris was not particularly interested in this part of Europe before. But that has changed.” “The Rafale is an important milestone, but not the whole story,” the official said, adding that the Balkan country has also bought French radar and missile systems and placed orders for Airbus transport planes. Serbia, whose Soviet MiG29s reach the end of their lifespan in the coming decade, wants to ensure uninterrupted air force prowess. Neighbouring EU and Nato member Croatia, regarded as a yardstick by Serbia’s armed forces, also ordered 12 Rafale jets from France in 2021, although those planes are used and cost only €1bn. In addition to the dozen planes, the Rafale deal will include auxiliary systems, training and maintenance. “It is very important that air-to-air missiles, which will ensure control of the airspace, go in the set with the planes,” retired air force general Sreto Malinović told the FT. Serbia also needed aircraft radars and associated attack-navigation equipment to be part of the deal, he said. While Serbia resented Nato after the US-led military alliance bombed Belgrade in 1999, it now had a “long list of things we wish to buy from the US”, the Serbian official said — though Washington has so far only approved the sale of Humvee military vehicles. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has led European countries to boost defence spending and helped France become the second-biggest arms exporter after the United States last year. Given the renewed popularity of the Rafale, its maker Dassault Aviation faces a challenge to produce the aircraft at a faster rate given its existing backlog: last year it delivered only 13 jets from its factory near Bordeaux, short of the 15 targeted. It aims to make 20 this year, and then eventually ramp up to 36 annually. “We are capable of it, I am confident,” said chief executive Éric Trappier in an interview with Boursorama in March. “It takes about 400 suppliers to help make a single Rafale . . . so we have to bring them along and resolve labour shortages.” Dassault declined to comment about the Serbian order. (Source: FT.com)
12 Apr 24. Ex-UK Ministry of Defence official jailed for taking illicit payments. The former managing director of an Airbus subsidiary was on Friday jailed for two and a half years in a London court for accepting kickbacks when working for Britain’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) nearly two decades ago. Jeffrey Cook was convicted of misconduct in public office in January after a long-running criminal investigation into allegations bribes were paid to top officials in Saudi Arabia. Cook, 67, had also been charged with overseeing corrupt payments to middlemen to obtain lucrative deals with the Saudi Arabian National Guard. But he and John Mason, who prosecutors said was the accountant and part-owner of the business of the middlemen, were acquitted of corruption in January after a trial at Southwark Crown Court. Cook and Mason had pleaded not guilty to paying bribes to top Saudi officials including Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, son of the late King Abdullah, between 2007 and 2012. The case largely focused on GPT Special Project Management, a now-defunct subsidiary of Airbus (AIR.PA), opens new tab. Its sole business was to provide communications systems to the Saudi Arabian National Guard under a contract with the MoD. Prosecutors had alleged Cook and Mason were at the heart of “deep corruption” as part of which bribes of more than 9.7 million pounds ($12.1 million) were paid to Saudi officials and intermediaries between 2007 and 2010. Cook and Mason, however, said the British government approved millions of pounds of payments because they were in the country’s financial and strategic interests. Tom Allen, representing Cook, said senior British officials, politicians and diplomats knew and consented to payments totalling nearly 60m pounds from 1978 onwards. Cook was found guilty of one count of misconduct in public office, relating to payments received when he worked for the MoD and before he joined GPT. Judge Simon Picken sentenced him to 30 months in prison, saying his offending was so serious that only an immediate jail sentence would suffice. (Source: Reuters)
12 Apr 24. BAE Systems’ Govan shipyard is set to significantly increase the speed at which they can build and launch ships, from 96 months down to 60 months. According to Sir Simon Lister, managing director of BAE Systems’s naval ships, the company aims to cut the build duration from 96 months for the first of class to just 60 months for the eighth vessel. Sir Simon Lister elaborated on the shipyard’s ambitious goals, stating, “We aim to reduce the build duration from the first of class being 96 months to the eighth being 60 months. More than that, we intend to compress the interval between ships from 18 months to 12.” A £300m investment in the Govan shipyard facilitates the reduction in build time. This includes a new £200m shipbuilding hall equipped with state-of-the-art technology and an advanced robotic welding system located in the fabrication hall. The integration of these technologies allows for more streamlined and efficient shipbuilding processes. “Being able to do that gives the gives us and gives the government choice. The quicker you build something that cheaper to build something. The improvement in productivity puts us in a good position for future work.” added Sir Simon. This approach benefits the Royal Navy, with faster delivery of ships, and it also positions the Govan shipyard as a competitive player in the global shipbuilding industry. (Source: News Now/UKDJ)
12 Apr 24. UK’s Labour Party aims to boost defence spending to 2.5% of GDP. Britain’s opposition Labour Party would aim to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP “as soon as resources allow”, its leader Keir Starmer said on Friday.
By committing to that level of defence spending, Labour, which is far ahead in opinion polls ahead of an election expected later this year, is matching the intentions of the ruling Conservative party.
Speaking to the i newspaper, Starmer said defence was “the number one issue for any government” in a world where international threats have risen and the situation was “more volatile” than it had been for many years.
“On defence spending, obviously we want to get to 2.5% as soon as resources allow that to happen,” he said.
He also committed to Britain’s nuclear deterrent, the Trident-submarine based missile system which has a continuous at sea presence at a cost of billions of pounds.
“In the face of rising global threats and growing Russian aggression, Labour’s commitment to our UK nuclear deterrent is total,” Starmer will say later on Friday on a visit to Cumbria, northern England where the submarines are built.
Should Labour win the election, there will be a review of defence and security spending, Starmer told the i newspaper, to make sure the priorities are correct and try to tackle waste in procurement.
Starmer’s position is in contrast to Labour’s previous leader Jeremy Corbyn, who opposed Britain’s Trident nuclear weapons system.
The Conservatives, traditionally seen as the party more likely to spend on defence, promised in March that defence spending would grow to 2.5% of GDP “as soon as economic conditions allow”, up from the current level of around 2.2%.
Trident costs about 3bn pounds per year to run and the cost of the new submarine fleet, set to be operational from the early 2030s, is expected to be 31bn pounds. (Source: Reuters)
12 Apr 24. Lithuania’s defence build-up intensifies amidst regional uncertainty. With escalating regional tensions, Lithuania charts a path towards strengthening its defence capabilities.
Lithuania is embarking on an expansion of its military capabilities. Its defence budget is poised to reach $2.8bn by 2029, marking a notable increase from $2.1bn in 2024.
This surge, highlighted in GlobalData’s “Lithuania Defense Market 2024-2029” report, reflects a commitment to reinforcing readiness amidst climbing regional tensions exemplified by ongoing conflicts and geopolitical uncertainties.
Key statistics from GlobalData’s “Lithuania Defense Market 2024-2029” report reveal a projected annual increase of 5.9% in defence expenditure between 2025 and 2029, revealing Lithuania’s proactive approach to military modernisation.
Military modernisation efforts are at the forefront of Lithuania’s defence strategy, focusing on key sectors such as land vehicles, missile defence systems, and tactical communication technologies. Investments in these sectors show Lithuania’s commitment to enhancing its ground capabilities, safeguarding its airspace, and ensuring communication networks among its armed forces.
Lithuania recently strengthened its defence capabilities through two initiatives. Firstly, the Lithuanian Defence Material Agency signed an agreement with Dutch counterparts to acquire Thales GM200 MM/C radars. Secondly, the State Defence Council approved the acquisition of German Leopard 2 tanks.
Partnerships play a role in Lithuania’s defence agenda, with the nation forging alliances with NATO, the United States, Germany, and other EU partners to strengthen collective security measures. Notably, Lithuania consistently exceeds NATO’s 2% GDP spending threshold, with defence expenditure as a percentage of GDP projected to rise from 3.7% in 2024 to 4.4% by 2029.
Moreover, Lithuania’s defence procurement objectives are underscored by contracts with global suppliers, including acquisitions of VILKAS IFVs from ARTEC GmbH and UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters from Sikorsky Aircraft. These partnerships enable Lithuania to leverage technologies and enhance its defence capabilities despite challenges such as limited defence industry size and budget constraints.
As Lithuania navigates an increasingly complex security landscape characterised by evolving threats and geopolitical dynamics, its intensified defence build-up reaffirms its determination to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity. (Source: army-technology.com)
12 Apr 24. Lithuania approves draft law to empower defence. The Lithuanian Government approved a draft law to expand opportunities and competitiveness of its indigenous defence companies.
The Lithuanian Government approved a draft law on 10 April 2024, designed to expand the opportunities for defence industry growth. It is believed the legislation will strengthen national security and advance the Baltic nation’s competitiveness in the global defence market.
Fundamentally, the country hopes to abide by a new market economy model of growth for the sector.
“It is particularly important that Lithuanian companies have favourable conditions to engage in designing, developing and maintaining priority capabilities of our Armed Forces in the changed security environment,” the Chancellor, Giedrė Balčytytė, described.
“It is our unmistakable national security priority, along with better opportunities to reveal the immense potential of the Lithuanian defence industry. Together we are designing incentives for a very promising co-operation between the scientific and business sectors, which is vital for any advanced, viable national economy,” the minister pledged.
The Law introduces modifications to the existing fragmented Lithuanian defence and security industry policy to the advantage of a new design of regulation that will highlight the role of security and defence industry in the context of national security.
It is proposed that the Government approves a list of defence equipment and weaponry necessary for developing priority capabilities of the Lithuanian Armed Forces. This would demonstrate clear directions of the Lithuanian defence industry development and allow industry entities to define for themselves which military technologies and equipment deserve investment.
The new Law also lays the foundation for industrial co-operation. Indigenous manufacturers will be offered a chance to become involved in the priority defence equipment and weaponry procurements at the National Defence System. It regulates that a part of foreign defence equipment manufacturers or suppliers will have to implement their contractual obligations through the Lithuanian entities of the economy.
“This is not only a way to encourage our manufacturers but also an opportunity to reduce the dependence from foreign suppliers and to ensure that the defence infrastructure is more secure and self-sufficient,” explained the new Minister of National Defence, Laurynas Kasčiūnas, who took over from his predecessor at the end of March 2024.
Although, the draft bills still need to be approved at the Seimas – the legislative branch. Nevertheless, the regulation is expected to be adopted and come into force as soon as 1 July 2024. (Source: army-technology.com)
11 Apr 24. Joint Statement on the UK-Australia Strategic Innovation Dialogue. Following the inaugural Strategic Innovation Dialogue in London, the UK and Australia have issued a Joint Statement. On 8-9 April 2024, Australia and the United Kingdom (UK) held the inaugural Strategic Innovation Dialogue (the Dialogue) in London. This put into practice the commitments made under the Innovation chapter of the Australia- UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA), the first such chapter in the world.
Dr. Carolyn Patteson, Head of International, Trade and National Security, of the Department of Industry, Science, and Resources (DISR) and Dr Gaynor Jeffery OBE, Director for Core Policy, Delivery and European Region at Department for Business and Trade (DBT) co-chaired on behalf of Australia and the UK respectively.
Discussions focused on priority areas such as future health, future power, and standards and interoperability of emerging technologies, with a view to encouraging further science, research, commercialisation and trade collaboration in these key areas.
The Dialogue supports and facilitates trade between two of the world’s most pioneering economies in innovative goods and services, encouraging the development and adoption of emerging technologies and increasing engagement in science, innovation, technology and related sectors, opening a new chapter of cooperation that will shape our economies for years to come.
It comes at a significant juncture, when both countries are looking to strengthen and diversify global supply chains, manage a transition to net zero emissions and ensure robust systems of governance to support the responsible and safe use of critical technologies including Artificial Intelligence – all in support of economic growth and job creation.
• On Future Health, discussions focused on strategies for commercialising innovation in biotechnology, highlighting advances in complex precision medicines and materials technology. Both sides outlined their existing health research networks and agreed to explore the potential for a ‘biobridge’ between our countries to expedite new and innovative medicines, diagnostics, and therapeutics to market.
• On Battery manufacturing, a visit to the UK Battery Industrialisation Centre (UKBIC) enabled direct learning on the opportunities and challenges in developing and trading these innovative goods. Following discussions over respective National approaches, both sides acknowledged further opportunities to deepen cooperation.
• On Offshore Wind, after comparing strategies and new innovations in floating offshore wind technology, there was joint commitment to identify collaborative opportunities to address supply chain constraints and to continue facilitating connections between policy makers to progress development of floating offshore wind policy.
• On standards and interoperability of emerging technologies, both countries acknowledged the importance of harmonising standards to bolster consumer trust, support sectoral growth and to facilitate trade in AI-enabled goods. Building on discussions hosted by the UK in 2023 at the AI Safety Summit in Bletchley Park, Australia and the UK reaffirmed the importance of working together toward safe and responsible AI, including in key international forums, to develop the international standards necessary to secure consumer trust and industry confidence in emerging sectors.
Australia and the UK welcomed cooperation between respective standards bodies in support of trade outcomes and committed to monitor their regulatory frameworks for new technologies to ensure they do not emerge as technical barriers to trade. This includes facilitating alignment on the adoption of interoperable tools for trustworthy AI, such as assurance techniques and international technical standards. Both countries welcomed the work already underway between respective agencies on autonomous vehicles.
Australia and the UK look forward to the opportunity to continue to strengthen the relationship between both countries by supporting trade in innovative goods and services, improving the connections between our respective systems and progressing joint work programmes catalysed by the Dialogue. The next Strategic Innovation Dialogue will be held in Australia in 2026. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
11 Apr 24. UK reaffirms commitment to Arctic security and prosperity. The UK’s commitment to international collaboration in the Arctic will be the focus for Americas Minister David Rutley on his first visit to Alaska.
David Rutley, Minister for the Americas, Caribbean and Overseas Territories and Minister for the Polar Regions
• Americas Minister reaffirms UK’s commitment to Arctic security and prosperity, and highlights action to tackle climate change on visit to Alaska
• David Rutley will speak at the Arctic Encounter Symposium in Anchorage with a focus on supporting a sustainable future for a changing Arctic
• Minister is deepening UK ties with states across the US, building on £315bn a year trade partnership that supports ms of jobs on both sides of the Atlantic
The UK’s commitment to international collaboration in the Arctic to tackle pressing regional challenges such as climate change will be the focus for the UK’s Americas Minister as he begins a two-day visit to Alaska today (Thursday 11 April).
In his first trip to the northern-most US state, David Rutley, who is also the UK’s Minister for the Polar Regions, will attend the Arctic Encounter Symposium in Anchorage where he will explain how the UK is playing a leadership role in working with Arctic States to support and strengthen Arctic security and prosperity and build on the UK’s strong relationships with regional partners.
David Rutley, Minister for the Americas, Caribbean and Overseas Territories and Minister for the Polar Regions, said: “The Arctic matters to the UK and we are ensuring that the UK matters to the Arctic. As close neighbours we share priorities over climate, security and prosperity and we are committed to playing a key role in the region. On my visits to states across the US, I have seen the strength of the bond that exists between America and the UK, and on my first trip to Alaska I am looking forward to discussing how we can work together to combat climate change and enhance our trade, technological and cultural partnerships.”
The UK set out its close relationship with the region in its refreshed Arctic Policy Framework in February 2023. This sets out the close links between the UK and the Arctic, and how the UK can play an appropriate leadership role that responds to significant changes in the region and builds on the strong links we already enjoy, including with the US.
During his visit, Minister Rutley will reaffirm the UK’s commitment to combat the geopolitical and environmental challenges affecting the Arctic, including through increased Russian militarisation in the region and the threat posed by climate change.
Melting sea ice will also make it possible for a wider range of actors to access the region, which has the potential to increase tensions. The Minister will reaffirm the UK’s vision for the Arctic as a place of high co-operation and low tension, and welcome the progress made to resume technical engagement in the Arctic Council.
The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the planet, and the number of wildfires in the region has more than tripled since 2018. These changes are felt most deeply by people in the region, but they also affect the UK’s weather, natural environment and resilience.
During his visit, the Minister will get a chance to see first-hand the impact that the planet’s warming climate is having in the Arctic when he treks on the Matanuska Glacier, and will also highlight how the UK is working with regional partners to tackle climate change.
While in Anchorage, Minister Rutley will also meet Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom and Senator Lisa Murkowski, where he will explore opportunities to deepen economic and cultural ties between the UK and Alaska.
His trip to Alaska continues a programme of visits to states across America where Minister Rutley has championed the UK as a great investment and business partner and highlighted the unrivalled security and defence ties between the two allies.
With the US and UK already having more than $1trn invested in each other’s economies, it is a relationship that presents huge opportunities for people and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic – supporting Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s priority to grow the UK’s economy and create better paying jobs.
The UK supports more jobs in America than any other country, with more than 1.2 m people working for British companies, while almost 1.5 m people do the same for American companies in the UK.
The UK and Alaska share a goods trading relationship that is worth $50 m a year, and world-renowned British businesses such as AstraZeneca and Barclays support jobs for almost 2,000 Alaskans. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
11 Apr 24. Royal Navy projects reach different levels on the path to autonomy. Some UK Royal Navy projects have not adapted as well as others in their efforts to cultivate an autonomous force.
During a panel discussion on the UK Royal Navy’s cultivation of an autonomous force at the Undersea Defence Technology conference in London, industry players observed that the nation’s naval projects have reached various levels in their transition.
With plans to build a ‘hybrid’ force structure that employs uncrewed underwater and surface vehicles alike, a leading intelligence consultancy, GlobalData, notes the persistent challenges when it comes to harnessing autonomy. The development of AI or autonomous systems presents its own unique set of financial, technological, legal, and ethical challenges as is evidenced by the slow and troubled pace of the development of autonomy solutions across all domains.
The Royal Navy is pursuing underwater autonomy at what it calls ‘degree four’ in which its undersea assets run fully autonomously, with no human in the loop, but still on the loop.
One of the panellists, the head of Underwater Battlespace Capability in the Royal Navy, Michael Wood, spoke to Naval Technology to explain the differences among the Navy’s projects and the challenges the service now faces in achieving autonomy.
A lot comes down to financing, Wood suggests: “The next spending review will be important in deciding how much investment is made in autonomous platforms.” In the Navy’s two-year-old Maritime Operating Concept, the service indicated that autonomous vehicles will play a valued part in the new force structure.
“The introduction of autonomous and uncrewed systems offers an opportunity to focus on the uniquely human ability to resolve complexity and ambiguity, make decisions, and understand audiences. This approach allows us to increase lethality and mass; transfer the dirty, dull and dangerous; and maximise the performance of our people.”
Project CETUS
One project that is at a relatively lower level on the path to autonomy is Project CETUS, an extra-large autonomous underwater vehicle (XLAUV) the size of a bus, running on five days of endurance, which is currently in its early stages as a testbed for operations.
CETUS is not currently a core programme, but rather a demonstrator the Navy is effectively playing with as a loyal wingman at this stage.
It is designed to move stealthily through the oceans, monitoring hostile activity, and listening out for ships or submarines that may pose a threat to the fleet, or key national infrastructure such as deep-sea cables and pipelines.
“S201 [a submersible designation] is proving some mission autonomy, which we will push further with the Project CETUS XLAUV,” Wood noted. “We’re also looking to partner with DARPA [a US defence research agency] on lessons they are generating through the NOMARS demonstrator.”
Mine Hunter Capability Block II
The Mine Hunter Capability (MCH) Block II is a mine countermeasure (MCM) system. Currently, the majority of the Royal Navy’s MCM capability is provided by the Hunt– and Sandown-class MCM vessels, although these are slowly being withdrawn from service, with some being donated to Ukraine.
Its Block 2 phase will continue the work seen under Block 1, which saw the development of concepts and plans to create an uncrewed MCM capability.
Block 2 will further this through the maturation of technology, using machine learning and AI, improved command and control, as well as the development of new autonomous technologies.
Achieving autonomy
Autonomy “is gaining traction,” but “it takes time”, Wood stipulated. The Navy hopes to build “a much wider enterprise” in which it will “move away from proprietary architecture and software.”
This demands a cultural change, not just for the force but also for Government delivery agencies. “[We must] configure the Navy but also delivery, DE&S – they will need additional engineering, technical and commercial [resources] for wide-scale adoption of maritime autonomous systems.”
In the end, the force will start “coalescing around more common systems as we know the direction we’re heading”. (Source: naval-technology.com)
10 Apr 24. U.S. Commander in Europe Says Russia Is a ‘Chronic Threat’ to World. Russia poses “a chronic threat” to the world and further aid to Ukraine to repulse the Russian invasion of that country is crucial, said Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the commander of U.S. European Command.
Cavoli, who also serves as NATO’s supreme allied commander in Europe, testified before the House Armed Services Committee today.
“We’re facing challenging times, to say the least, in the European theater,” Cavoli told the representatives. “Russia’s brutal, unprovoked war has ravaged Ukraine for over two years. forces are demolishing cities and are destroying innocent lives on a scale we have not seen since the Second World War.”
Also of concern is Russia’s dependence on China, Iran and North Korea to sustain its campaign in Ukraine, he said. “These countries are forming interlocking, strategic partnerships in an attempt to challenge the existing order,” the general said. “This is profoundly inimical to U.S. national interests.”
More than two years after the invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no sign of stopping, Cavoli said. “Russia does not intend to stop with Ukraine,” he said. “Russia presents a chronic threat.”
European Command is responding to the threat to NATO by enhancing its deterrence posture across Europe. “We have strengthened our eastern flank with rotational force deployments, we have expanded pre-positioned stocks and we’ve modernized our infrastructure to enable rapid reception of reinforcing forces,” the general said.
U.S. and allied troops have exercised extensively to demonstrate the new capabilities to reinforce in all domains. “We’re ready to defend, and this allows us to deter, and we have deterred Russia from attacking our alliance,” he said.
Cavoli also said the European Command has supported the international efforts to support Ukraine, and the command set up a security assistance group. “In the past 26 months of this war, the U.S. and our partners have delivered vast amounts of critical munitions and equipment to our Ukrainian colleagues,” he said. “The has facilitated a full range of training to promote unit readiness. We have ensured that Ukraine knows how to use their new equipment and knows how to maintain it.”
But Putin is persistent, and the fact is that Ukraine “remains almost entirely dependent on external support to stay in this fight,” he said. “The severity of this moment cannot be overstated: If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine could lose.”
The last tranche of U.S. assistance ran out earlier this year, and Congress has legislation before it to continue the funding. Allies have picked up some of the shortages, but the United States is the main supplier of ground-based air defense and artillery shells for Ukraine right now, Cavoli said.
“I can’t predict the future, but I can do simple math,” the general said. “When I look at the supply rates, … when I look at the consumption rates, if we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine will run out of artillery shells and will run out of air defense interceptors in fairly short order.
“Based on my experience in 37-plus years in the U.S. military, if one side can shoot and the other side can’t shoot back, the side that can’t shoot back loses,” he continued. “So, the stakes are very high.”
Also at stake is American leadership. “Continued U.S. leadership is essential,” he said. “Our allies are stepping up. But they require, and they hope for, our continued leadership and example. By upholding our commitment to Ukraine and by demonstrating steadfast cohesion with the NATO alliance, we provide a clear deterrent to our adversaries. (Source: U.S. DoD)
10 Apr 24. Italian government halts plan to buy Israeli undersea drone. Italy’s plans to buy an undersea drone derived from an Israeli firm Elta Systems platform have been abruptly put on hold, defeated by ambitions to give the order to Italian industry and by increased sensitivity over buying arms from Israel.
The defense committees of the upper and lower houses of the Italian parliament were due last week to start evaluating a proposal by the Italian defense ministry to purchase three of the torpedo-shaped BlueWhale drones designed for intelligence gathering, anti-submarine warfare and mine countermeasures.
Equipped with sonars, including towed array sonar, the 5.5 tonne platform also boasts a raisable, satellite-linked turret offering radar and electro-optic capabilities.
The program was listed, without naming Elta, in last year’s Italian defense budget, which priced the purchase at €254 m ($273 m), with payments to be spread between 2023 and 2035, including logistic support, control stations and recovery and deployment systems for ships and submarines.
The Italian parliament’s defense committees generally approve all purchase proposals sent to them by the Italian defense ministry, marking the last formal step before a procurement goes ahead.
But last week, just before the BlueWhale purchase was due to be debated and voted on, the plan was withdrawn by the defense ministry.
Sources knowledgeable of the planned procurement said it was blocked over concerns that the technology could be entirely produced by Italian industry without the need to involve overseas firms.
The decision suggests that plans to partly involve Italian firms in work share on the 10.9 meter long BlueWhale were deemed insufficient.
Italy is raising its profile in sub-sea warfare with a new centre at La Spezia which brings together the Navy, industry and universities to develop systems.
A second reason, the sources said, was the political sensitivity involved in buying Israeli defense products amid the international outcry over Israel’s military operation in Gaza which has led to the deaths of over 33,000 Palestinians.
The Israeli operation followed the Hamas attack on Israel which killed around 1,200.
Italy’s right wing government is solidly pro-Israel, but opposition members of parliament sitting on defense committees hail from parties which have been vocal in criticizing the Israeli operation.
Two sources, who could not be named because they were not permitted to speak publicly about the program, told Defense News the decision to block it was also related to doubts raised by Italian officials over the performance of the platform, with criticism of the acoustic signal emitted by its propellor, its maneuverability and its cost. A third source however said the BlueWhale’s performance had not been a factor. (Source: Defense News)
10 Apr 24. Bulgaria: New caretaker government will likely continue progress on Eurozone integration. On 9 April, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev appointed a new caretaker government led by Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev. The caretaker government will be in place until snap elections in early June (the sixth parliamentary vote in three years). The situation follows the collapse of the pro-EU GERB-We Continue the Change (PP)-led coalition in late-March. Deputy Minister Lyudmila Petkova announced that the government will uphold the state’s ongoing priorities, such as Schengen membership, as well as entry into the Eurozone and the OECD. Glavchev’s government is especially focused on making progress with implementing the euro (EUR); a parliamentary vote and the signing of a partnership agreement with the European Commission (EC) will take place this month. The government seeks to adopt the EUR by 1 July 2025 at the latest. Although we assess that political instability in Bulgaria is likely to persist beyond the snap election, further integration into the Eurozone is nonetheless likely.. (Source: Sibylline)
10 Apr 24. Germany: Thwarted suspected far-right extremist attack underscores persistent threat. The public prosecutor’s office and the police in Halle (Saxony-Anhalt state) suspect that a far-right extremist attack was thwarted on 6 April following the arrest of a 36-year-old man in the Schlosserstrasse area. The man was initially arrested after shouting racist abuse and threatening passersby with a weapon. A subsequent search of the suspect’s apartment uncovered a viable explosive device and content strongly indicating that he holds far-right extremist views. The Schosserstrasse area is considered a crime hotspot that is reportedly marked by ethno-religious tensions. There is recent history of far-right extremism in Halle, including an antisemitic terrorist attack in 2019. Far-right extremism poses a persistent moderate threat in Germany. The threat of far-right terrorism will continue to emanate primarily from sole perpetrators. We assess that extensive monitoring by Germany’s domestic intelligence (BfV) will help to disrupt more complex (but nevertheless concerning) plots. These plots are increasingly aimed at the German state. (Source: Sibylline)
09 Apr 24. Kosovan police load up with weapons on the Serbian border as tensions rise. Security ramped up as fears grow that Serbia’s president Aleksander Vucic is planning an invasion aided by his ally Vladimir Putin
Before the Kosovan police begin their patrol of the border with Serbia, they load up the car with weaponry: AK-47s are strapped to the back of car seats, handguns dropped in the footwells, and drones and bulletproof vests stuffed in the Land Rover’s boot.
This is now standard protocol on one of the most volatile frontiers on the European continent.
When people ask Venton Elshani, the deputy police commander of North Kosovo, what the situation is like, he simply shows them the preparations he takes for patrol. “You see the weapons?” he said, before taking The Telegraph out to the border, “these are for police officers to carry. The situation is not good.”
Since Kosovo won independence from Yugoslavia in a war that ended in 1999, it has played host to a small community of ethnic Serbs in the northern border region. Tensions with the ethnic Albanian majority have surged lately. Alexander Vucic, Serbia’s president, has hinted at an invasion. Nationalists urge him to act to “protect” the Serbs forced to live under Kosovan rule.
Fears of a fresh war spiked in 2023 when a group of Serbian gunmen stormed across the border into the northern village of Banjska and barricaded themselves in its monastery. Three of a suspected 30 militants were killed in a shoot-out. One of Commander Elshani’s men lost his life in the crossfire.
Since that day, the officer and his team have conducted daily patrols in the Serbian-dominated border region, hunting for illegal roads into Serbia of the kind used by the gunmen in their assault.
“We know these roads better than anyone,” Commander Elshani told The Telegraph as the patrol wended its way through the mountains. “The Serbs can’t make a road we won’t find.”
At the last count, police identified 65 illegal roads, all of which have been blocked with large ditches cut through the concrete. A further 10 roads are kept under constant surveillance, mainly via drones.
Having a constant presence in the Serb-majority region sent a message to Belgrade that Kosovo was protecting its borders, Commander Elshani said.
“Banjska changed the game, put the game into another level because of the deaths,” he said. “When the blood is shed, then it’s a problem.”
Analysts warn that Kremlin propaganda is fuelling unrest in the north in a nation where 93 per cent are Albanian and 4 per cent are Serb. The majority of Serbs in Kosovo still regard Belgrade, which has never recognised Kosovo’s independence, as their government.
After the siege, authorities uncovered a huge arms cache the attackers had stashed in disused buildings around the northern villages. Only a few weeks ago they discovered five more rocket launchers, a sign of the scale of the planned attack.
In an interview with The Telegraph, Albin Kurti, Kosovo’s prime minister, warned that Mr Vucic, the president of Serbia, planned to invade. He said Serbia had built up forward operating bases around the border in a “horseshoe shape” to “defend Belgrade and attack Kosovo”. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
09 Apr 24. RAF fighter squadron arrives in Romania to co-lead NATO air policing mission. Six RAF fighter jets will commence a four-month mission in Romania from today, flying air policing missions alongside the Romanian Air Force. Royal Air Force pilots will remain in Romania for four months during the mission
Royal Air Force fighter jets have started protecting NATO’s eastern flank, close to the Black Sea, following a handover ceremony today in Romania.
Six RAF Typhoon fighter aircraft are taking part in the four-month mission, with jets from IX (Bomber) Squadron, along with more than two hundred RAF personnel from 140 Expeditionary Air Wing (140EAW) deployed from RAF Lossiemouth to Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base in Romania. They will fly alongside the Romanian Air Force as part of NATO’s enhanced Air Policing mission (eAP) until August.
The air policing mission begins this week following a ceremony today involving RAF personnel, their Romanian counterparts, and NATO officials. The personnel involved in the mission will be on standby at a moment’s notice to launch Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) intercepts of Russian aircraft approaching NATO airspace.
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said: “Our NATO air policing deployment helps to keep Europe’s skies secure, and I pay tribute to the dedicated personnel delivering this important mission. Ready to launch at a moment’s notice for the next four months, the Typhoon pilots will respond with professionalism to threats and incidents in support of our collective security.
We’re showing the scale of our commitment to NATO in its 75th year, with deployments like this and thousands of personnel operating and exercising across the alliance to keep the UK and our allies safe.”
The countries involved in NATO’s air policing missions rotate on a regular basis, with the RAF having flown to intercept more than 50 Russian aircraft in the first half of last year while leading the Alliance’s enhanced air policing mission from Estonia. This will be the fifth time the RAF have participated in the air policing mission in Romania.
Personnel from 140EAW could be required to launch in their fighter jets to intercept Russian aircraft that do not liaise with NATO-controlled regional air traffic agencies and do not file flight plans, therefore failing to adhere to international norms. This, in turn, creates a flight safety risk that must be investigated and monitored by NATO aircraft to ensure the safety of all air traffic in the region.
Aircraft frequently intercepted by the RAF during previous air policing missions include Russian long-range strategic bombers, surveillance aircraft, and transport aircraft. QRA intercepts are key to maintaining airspace security and protecting international borders, as well as acting as a clear deterrent against threats.
Air Commodore Martin Cunningham, 11 Group Assistant Chief of Staff of Operations, said: “The Royal Air Force is very proud to be back in Romania as part of the UK’s contribution to NATO, working with our Romanian colleagues. Our presence here is another example of the UK’s steadfast commitment to NATO and for the RAF, a further demonstration of our air power projection capability.
As with every operation, there has been an enormous amount of preparation to get us to this point: from the huge road moves, delivery of equipment, training of our expeditionary air wing personnel and of course to the Typhoon squadron from RAF Lossiemouth arriving. I wish to extend my sincere thanks to all involved in the herculean effort to ensure smooth accreditation and wish them a successful deployment.”
Enhanced Air Policing deployments are planned in advance and rotate between NATO Allied Air Forces, ensuring collective deterrence and defence protecting and securing the integrity of NATO’s airspace.
NATO’s enhanced Air Policing in the south was introduced in 2014 to reassure Allied populations along the eastern flank after Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula.
Wing Commander Karl Bird, Commanding Officer of 140 Expeditionary Air Wing, said: “This will be the RAF’s fifth eAP rotation in Romania, having completed the first iteration in 2014. The missions contribute to the development of the reaction and deterrence capacity and is a strong sign of the Alliance’s cohesion. Ensuring NATO is ready to secure the skies 24/7. The air policing mission is part of the UK’s wider commitment to NATO and the security of its eastern flank, alongside the presence of around a thousand British soldiers in Estonia as part of NATO’s enhanced Forward Presence.” (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
09 Apr 24. Europe must prepare for potential war, as a full-scale conflict on the continent beyond Ukraine is “no longer a fantasy”, the EU’s chief diplomat has warned. “Russia threatens Europe,” both through its ongoing war in Ukraine and hybrid attacks on EU member states, Josep Borrell said on Tuesday in a speech in Brussels. “War is certainly looming around us,” said Borrell. “A high-intensity, conventional war in Europe is no longer a fantasy.” It is the first time the former Spanish foreign minister has laid out the Russian threat so explicitly, after recent warnings from military chiefs and leaders in northern Europe about the risk of more Russian attacks beyond Ukraine. The Danish defence minister in February said Russia could test Nato’s solidarity within three to five years. “The Berlin Wall has been replaced with a ring of fires around us,” he said, referring also to the Israel-Hamas war and instability in northern Africa. The conflict on the EU’s border has exposed the bloc’s underinvested defence industry and military capabilities. It has also spooked capitals that are worried the US could retreat from its long-term role as the continent’s ultimate security guarantee if Donald Trump returns to the White House after the US presidential elections in November. Russia’s armed forces in Ukraine are deploying vastly more weaponry and manpower than Kyiv is able to, sparking concerns in western capitals that Moscow could make significant territorial gains this year. European countries, which gutted defence spending in the decades following the end of the cold war, have stepped up investments in their defence industrial production capacity in an effort to increase supplies to Ukraine and re-arm their own forces. But more investment was needed, given that Europe’s security situation was an “existential crisis”, Borrell said. “We need a new intergovernmental financing vehicle . . . comparable to the one that we created during the [eurozone] financial crisis.” Recommended InterviewWar in Ukraine Russian disinformation on Ukraine has grown in scale and skill, warns Berlin Some EU leaders have called for that financing to be raised via joint defence bonds while others, who are resisting the idea of more common debt, back a loosening of rules that would allow the EU’s budget to fund weapons. Trump, who polls suggest is running neck-and-neck with President Joe Biden, has threatened not to defend Nato allies in Europe that do not spend enough on defence. That comes amid a broader political push in Washington to focus its military might more on Asia than Europe. “The US umbrella, which we have relied on since the cold war, may not be open all the time,” Borrell said. “Maybe, depending on who is ruling Washington, we cannot rely on America to protect us.” “Within an alliance the priorities for individual members may change,” he added. (Source: FT.com)
08 Apr 24. Polish defense leaders push ‘dronization’ of the armed forces. Polish defense leaders plan to embed drone capabilities into all levels of the armed forces, building a new military component devoted to unmanned aircraft and speeding up their acquisition.
The envisioned transformation comes after studying the lessons gleaned from Russia’s full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine and Kyiv’s ensuing defensive operations, now in their third year.
“Unmanned systems allow to gain advantage at relatively low costs,” a spokesperson for the National Ministry of Defense told Defense News. “The ministry will intensify the dronization process of the Polish military in specific areas of their use: reconnaissance, combat, and support.”
That means even small formations of soldiers will have access to an arsenal of unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, the official explained. “Experience with the use of drones across our eastern border [with Ukraine] indicates the validity of their use at the lowest levels of command, so that, for instance, a platoon commander could have reconnaissance UAVs at their disposal, and be able to hit close targets with UAVs or use so-called ‘kamikaze’ drones.”
Observations from the war in Ukraine also have prompted Polish plans to launch a new military component, the Drone Forces, according to Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the country’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defence.
Speaking earlier this year at a session of the National Defence Committee of the Sejm, the parliament’s lower chamber, Kosiniak-Kamysz described the envisioned organization as a “separate component at operational level.” The idea came from Gen. Wiesław Kukuła, the chief of the General Staff, he said.
Amid those plans, buying and fielding new drones is a priority for officials here, with ongoing acquisitions to be accelerated.
The Polish military has acquired various types of UAVs over the past years. These include Bayraktar TB2 drones equipped with anti-tank missiles. Warsaw ordered 24 such drones from Turkish manufacturer Baykar in 2021, and their deliveries began in 2022.
“The last of the four sets [ordered from Baykar] is currently in the process of being transferred to the armed forces,” the defense spokesperson said.
Poland is also negotiating the acquisition of MQ-9B SkyGuardian drones from General Atomics, following a period of leasing the MQ-9A Reaper model. The potential purchase of an undisclosed number of aircraft is poised to make the nation’s armed forces the first military on NATO’s eastern flank to buy the medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) UAV.
Asked by Defense News about the program, the spokesperson would only confirm that “there is a plan to purchase MQ-9B unmanned reconnaissance and strike systems.”
“Looking at the next programs, as part of the Zefir program, we intend to acquire MALE-class unmanned aerial systems,” the spokesperson said, noting that a separate effort is ongoing under the Gryf program to field a shorter-range variant. For the Polish Navy, a separate effort exists to buy rotorcraft drones under the Albatros program.
Polish privately-owned defense company WB Group has supplied two types of drones to the country’s military: FlyEye mini UAVs, which are used for reconnaissance, artillery guidance, search and rescue, but also to extend the range of battle management systems; and Warmate drones, which combine reconnaissance capacities and combat capabilities as loitering munition.
While orders placed with foreign UAV manufacturers and privately-owned Polish drone makers have allowed Poland to gain new capabilities, the troubled UAV contract the previous government awarded to state-owned PGZ in 2018 has become a model example of inefficient procurement, local observers say.
Under the deal, a consortium of state-owned defense companies was to deliver 30 short-range reconnaissance Orlik drones for about 790m zloty ($200m). Since then, numerous annexes were added to the contract to extend the delivery schedule.
Kosiniak-Kamysz said that he expects PGZ to immediately come through with the work. “The military has lost patience in this matter,” he said. “In 2021, those drones were to be delivered, and they have not been delivered to date,” he said said April 5.
The coming months will demonstrate how PGZ’s new management intends to tackle the problematic drone contract. Last month, Krzysztof Trofiniak was named as the company’s new chief executive. A seasoned defense industry manager, Trofiniak’s track record includes serving as the president of local defense company Huta Stalowa Wola and as vice president of PGZ. His return to the defense giant was facilitated by the October 2023 election in which a new coalition government was sworn in, ousting the right-wing Law and Justice party from power after eight years of rule. (Source: Defense News)
08 Apr 24. German army sets up first overseas bases since Second World War. Two dozen soldiers departed from Berlin on Monday morning to set up the first permanent German army bases on foreign soil since the Second World War.
In a landmark moment in the history of the modern German army, the soldiers flew from the German capital to Vilnius in Lithuania, where they were welcomed by the Baltic country’s defence minister.
Laurynas Kasciunas described the arrival of the soldiers as “a historic decision for both Lithuania and Germany”.
The troops will now build two bases, one outside the capital and one outside the second city, Kaunas. Germany has said the bases will be operational and ready to house 5,000 army personnel by 2027.
“We are sending a clear signal of solidarity with the permanent stationing of this brigade in Lithuania,” said Boris Pistorius, the German defence minister.
“This is an important day for the brigade, for the Germany army, and for Nato,” he added.
The advance deployment is set to increase to more than 100 soldiers by the end of 2024. The bases will include military exercise areas, as well as housing, schools and sports facilities for the soldiers and their families.
German soldiers are stationed in Lithuania on a rotating basis as part of a Nato enhanced forward presence deployment.
Mr Pistorius made the surprise announcement that Berlin would set up a permanent presence last June.
Ever since Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a Zeitenwende (turning point) in military planning in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Berlin has made moves to modernise its military and strengthen its contribution to Nato’s deterrence capabilities.
Mr Pistorius took over as defence minister 14 months ago, after his predecessor, Christine Lambrecht, came under massive criticism for taking too long to address the holes in the German army’s fighting capabilities.
A member of Mr Scholz’s Social Democrats, Mr Pistorius has promised to make Germany’s armed forces “war ready”, a pledge that has met resistance from pacifists within his own party. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
06 Apr 24. The Commander and Headquarters initial command element of the Bundeswehr’s 45th ‘Lithuania’ Brigade is deploying to Vilnius.
On 8th April the Commander of the 45th ‘Lithuania’ Brigade of the Bundeswehr, Lt Gen Alfons Mais, and the Headquarters initial command element will deploy. The initial command element of the German brigade to be stationed in Lithuania will comprise over 20 service members.
The first soldiers arriving in Lithuania will settle in Vilnius and will be responsible for planning the relocation of the brigade to Lithuania and coordinating the requirements for military infrastructure. By the end of the year, the primary element of the headquarters, which will have grown, will also be responsible for helping with the transfer of German soldiers to serve in Lithuania.
Germany is committed to deploying a heavy brigade in Lithuania with three manoeuvre battalions and all necessary enablers, including combat support and supply units. The brigade will consist of existing and newly formed units; the 203rd Panzer Battalion from North Rhine-Westphalia and the 122nd Panzergrenadier Battalion from Bavaria will be transferred to Lithuania. The enhanced Forward Presence Battle Group Lithuania will be transformed into a multinational battalion and become an integral part of the brigade.
It is expected that a total of about five thousand people, German brigade soldiers and civilians, some of them with their families, will move to Lithuania. There will be two locations of service, Rūdninkai and Rukla. Military families will stay in Kaunas and Vilnius and additionally logistic hubs will be created in other areas of Lithuania. (Source: www.joint-forces.com)
05 Apr 24. Government accused of ‘smoke and mirrors’ on defence budget. In a recent Defence Committee meeting, officials were pressed on whether the defence budget for the upcoming year represented an increase or cut.
Witnesses examined included Grant Shapps MP, Secretary of State for Defence; David Williams CB, Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Defence; Tom Wipperman, Strategic Finance Director; and Lieutenant General Sir Rob Magowan KCB CBE, Deputy Chief of the Defence Staff (Military Capability). Grant Shapps opened the discussion by addressing the committee’s concerns over budget transparency. “I think the confusion on the day is that when the Treasury publishes its numbers, you are not comparing apples with apples; you are comparing apples with oranges,” Shapps explained, indicating that supplementary expenditures, such as Ukraine support, were not initially included in the figures. He asserted that, once these were accounted for, there appeared to be a 1.8% real-terms increase in the defence budget.
However, this explanation did not satisfy committee members, with Mr Mark Francois accusing the government of employing “smoke and mirrors” tactics. “You have suffered a massive defeat at the hands of the Treasury, you have had your budget cut by £2.5bn, and you are now trying to play smoke and mirrors with the Ukrainian money to pretend that your budget has not been cut, when it has been slashed,” Francois pointedly remarked.
Amid the heated exchanges, David Williams attempted to clarify the situation by emphasising the distinction between core spending and supplementary funding. Despite efforts to provide a detailed breakdown of the budget figures, questions persisted regarding the real impact of the budget on the UK’s defence capabilities and transparency in accounting. (Source: UKDJ)
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