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30 Mar 24. Update on current and future plans for Britain’s F-35 fleet.
B. A letter from the Minister of State for Defence Procurement sets out the status of the UK’s F-35 fleet.
The letter from James Cartlidge MP, Minister of State for Defence Procurement, to Jeremy Quin MP, Chair of the House of Commons Defence Committee, covers several key points regarding the development and operational status of the UK’s F-35 Lightning Force.
Here’s a summary.
• Full Operating Capability (FOC) Declaration: The FOC for the first phase of procurement (Tranche 1) is set for no later than 31st December 2025, with 33 out of the first 48 aircraft already delivered.
• Squadron Developments: The second front line squadron, 809 Naval Air Squadron, was recommissioned at RAF Marham on 8th December 2023 and is working towards its Initial Operating Capability scheduled for 1st December 2024. The squadron, like the rest of the Force, will be jointly operated by the Royal Air Force (RAF) and Royal Navy (RN).
• Operational Contributions: The Lightning Force continues to support NATO, particularly in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, with UK F-35Bs undertaking long-range missions and integrating with other partner nations’ forces. Operation FIREDRAKE in 2023 highlighted the F-35Bs’ capabilities through various tasks and exercises aboard HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH, showcasing interoperability with other nations.
• Developmental Testing: A period of testing was conducted in October 2023 aboard HMS PRINCE OF WALES to expand the operating envelope for F-35B aircraft on UK Queen Elizabeth Class Carriers, aiming to formally approve expanded operating limits and procedures.
• Program Costs: Despite global inflation and foreign exchange challenges, the initial procurement remains within budget, with a notable decrease in aircraft price from 2014 to 2022, albeit with an expected slight increase for upcoming lots due to inflationary pressures.
• Capability Milestone Timeline Progress: The letter highlights the growth and maturation of the Force, including recruitment and training efforts for engineers, pilots, and instructors. However, it notes a temporary delay in aircraft deliveries due to software instability with Lockheed Martin’s Technical Refresh 3, which is not expected to impact the FOC declaration.
• Future Developments: Discussions are underway for the procurement of an additional 27 F-35 aircraft in Tranche 2, aimed at enhancing the UK’s Carrier Enabled Power Projection capability and increasing the fleet to 74 aircraft by 2033, with funding for this phase secured under an approved option.
Here’s the letter in full.
“JAMES CARTLIDGE MP
MINISTER OF STATE FOR DEFENCE PROCUREMENT
Dear Jeremy,
I am providing an update on the continuing growth and capability delivery of the F-35 Lightning Force. Since I wrote to your predecessor in July 2023, the declaration of Full Operating Capability (FOC) for the first procurement phase (Tranche 1) has been agreed as occurring no later than 31 Dec 2025. The first 48 aircraft continue to be produced as scheduled, with 33 aircraft received to date. The second front line squadron (809 Naval Air Squadron) was stood up in a re-commissioning ceremony at RAF Marham on the 8th December 2023. 809NAS will continue to work-up readiness throughout 2024, ahead of its Initial Operating Capability scheduled for 1 Dec 2024. As across the Force, 809NAS will be jointly operated by the RAF and RN.
Operations
The Lightning Force continue to provide a key component of the UK contribution to NATO in response to Russia’s continued illegal war and occupation of Ukraine. In 2023 UK F-35Bs have undertaken long-range missions from RAF Marham; supported by Voyager tankers, seamlessly integrating with our own 4th Generation Typhoon, and fighters from other partner nations, to form a potent force mix.
Carrier Strike 2023, Operation FIREDRAKE, was undertaken between 11 September and 10 November 2023; eight aircraft, pilots and supporting personnel boarded HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH and undertook a range of operational tasks, joint exercises, and Defence engagement with other nations. Initially, they engaged in Joint Expedition Force (JEF) activities, working with Norway, Sweden and Finland, after which they undertook Large Force Employment activity with the Royal Netherlands Air Force. The final element of the deployment was under NATO direction, where NATO interoperability was demonstrated alongside Estonian, Latvian and Polish military forces.
In our last report we advised that a period of developmental testing using Joint Program Office (JPO) Integrated Test Force F-35Bs on HMS PRINCE OF WALES had been deferred to autumn 2023, following HMS PRINCE OF WALES serviceability issues. This period of testing successfully took place in October 2023 with the intent to expand the embarked operating envelope for all F-35B aircraft onboard UK Queen Elizabeth Class Carriers and Shipborne Rolling Vertical Landings for the platform; the trials have formed the evidence base towards formal approval aimed to expand operating limits and authorise those procedures in an updated Royal Navy, Ship Air – Release.
Programme Costs
Initial procurement (Tranche 1) expenditure has remained within its cost approval envelope, with almost all funds committed. Global inflation and foreign exchange currency (FOREX) challenges have been the key themes of the previous 18 months. The aircraft price has reduced by 32% over the period 2014 to 2022. However, it is anticipated that the price of each aircraft in LOTs 15-17 will increase marginally by around 6%. This is predominately due to increasing manufacturing costs associated with inflationary pressures. Inflation and FOREX continue to be a concern to the Programme, as do the recent savings pressures levied across the department.
Capability Milestone Timeline Progress
Following the successful stand up of 809NAS in December 2023, Force growth will continue to mature and build our frontline squadrons’ capabilities out to December 2025. Force growth remains an actively managed issue. We have already implemented the first increased recruitment of the required engineering workforce across the RN and RAF. The Operational Conversion Unit continues to graduate F-35B pilots into the Force at a sufficient rate. Additionally, the Force has trained a new tactical weapons instructor and 6 flying instructors, which has provided additional instructor depth. However, Lockheed Martin has currently suspended aircraft release post-production as they have experienced software instability during developmental testing of Technical Refresh 3, the next pan-platform software upgrade. We are aware of the current short-term delays to UK aircraft deliveries. At this time, it is not assessed to impact the scheduled FOC declaration at the end of 2025.
Beyond FOC, deliveries of ‘Tranche 2’ will start and the next significant operational capability development will occur towards the end of the decade, with UK weapons
(METEOR and SPEAR 3) being fielded on the UK’s front-line. UK and JPO negotiations regarding the ‘Tranche 2’ buy of a further 27 F-35 aircraft are going well. This next procurement phase is expected to complete the internal approvals process during summer 2024. It will realise our long-term ambition to deepen Carrier Enabled Power Projection capability and will bring the UK fleet up to 74 aircraft, allowing us to create a third front line squadron by 2033. Funding for this next phase has been ringfenced under an approved ABC Option.”
(Source: Google/https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/)
28 Mar 24. Estonia must double defence spending to counter Russia, military chief says. The head of Estonia’s military said on Thursday that his country needs to double defence spending over the next two years to stockpile enough munitions to inflict a decisive defeat on any Russian invasion force. General Martin Herem said neither the threat of a nuclear response nor the prospect of significant casualties would deter President Vladimir Putin if he chose to attack Russia’s small Baltic neighbour, which would be devastated unless he was driven back fast.
“If you show your face over my border, the decisive victory must come very quickly: not by months and years, but days and weeks,” Herem said in an interview in Japan, where he was meeting defence officials. “If we really believe that it may come in three years, then we have to make decisions today.”
Putin on Wednesday explicitly denied that Russia had designs on any NATO member, but his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has made Western countries nervous that he could seek to restore Moscow’s control of much of the former Soviet Union, or go even further.
Estonia, once a Soviet republic, has already increased its defence budget to around 3% of gross domestic product, a leader among members of the U.S.-led NATO alliance, since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.
Its Foreign Intelligence Service said last month that Russia was preparing for a military confrontation with the West within the next decade and was set to double the number of forces stationed along its border with the Baltic states and Finland.
Other NATO countries are reinforcing their presence in the Baltic states; Germany plans to have 4,800 combat-ready troops in the region by 2027, its first permanent foreign deployment since World War Two.
Herem said he had spoken to Japanese defence ministry officials in Tokyo about acquiring components that could help Estonia build defence equipment more cheaply.
Although pacifist Japan has strict curbs on defence exports, it has fewer restrictions on commercially available components that can also be used in military equipment. That, said Herem, could include earthquake sensors being used to detect approaching Russian tanks.
(Source: Reuters)
25 Mar 24. Minister says 2.5pc of GDP should be ‘urgently’ spent on defence. James Heappey resigned as Armed Forces minister earlier this month amid concerns about strength of UK British military
James Heappey has called for 2.5 per cent of GDP to be “urgently” spent on defence.
The outgoing Armed Forces minister made the comments when asked in the Commons whether Labour’s “failure” to commit to spending more than two per cent of GDP on defence presented a bigger risk to the UK’s security than a Conservative government.
Mr Heappey, who resigned earlier this month amid growing concerns about the strength of the British military, told MPs: “Absolutely. We should urgently achieve 2.5 per cent of GDP.
“The fiscal situation is improving, and the Conservative Party has made that commitment.”
He pointed to previous comments by Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, and said “both main parties should strongly consider a further increase in defence spending in the next Parliament”.
On a trip to visit troops in Poland recently Mr Shapps called for the Government to increase its defence spending to three per cent. The UK spends 2.27 per cent of GDP on defence, but he said this should rise in an “increasingly dangerous world”.
In the recent Budget, Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, said the Government would reach 2.5 per cent “as soon as economic conditions allow”.
During defence questions on Monday, MPs also claimed Britain would not be able to fight a sustained war.
John Spellar, a Labour MP, said: “The minister rightly speaks about the ability to sustain fighting. He knows that an exercise conducted with the Americans showed that the British Army would run out of munitions within 10 days.”
However, Mr Heappey said: “In exercises that I have seen where the UK have operated alongside the US, what happens again and again and again is that American senior commanders hold the UK force elements in the highest of regard.”
When challenged by Richard Drax, a Tory MP, that the UK was not ready to fight a “sustained war”, Mr Heappey insisted the British military remained “fearsome”.
He said: “Our Armed Forces do need reinvestment in their ability to sustain themselves at a war-fighting level. That’s no scandal, that is the consequence of a peace dividend that allowed successive governments to rightly disinvest in the resilience that kept our Cold War force credible.”
Mr Heappey said “in a pre-war era” it remained the responsibility of the Government and those after to “reinvest in that necessary war-fighting capability”. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
27 Mar 24. UK lawmakers, defense chief clash over looming defense spending cuts. U.K. lawmakers clashed with Defense Secretary Grant Shapps this week over cuts to next year’s core defense spending, dismissing his counter-argument that the budget would actually rise as political gamesmanship.
The parliamentary Defence Committee convened the March 26 session roughly a month after the government released its 2024-2025 budget plan, showing a drop in defense funding for the next fiscal year.
Shapps said there was “confusion” in the documents published by the Treasury because they fail to account for £2.5bn ($3.2bn) pledged in supplementaries for Ukraine aid and £280m for ammunition stockpiles.
“Once you add those two things in, which are then comparable to the outturn of last year with the outturn of this year, you get a 1.8 percent real-terms increase of £1.5bn,” he said. Because of these omissions, Shapps said, “you’re not comparing apples with apples but apples with oranges.”
According to the government’s Spring budget 2024, also known as the Red Book, the operating budget allocated to the Ministry of Defence is going down by £2.2bn from £35bn in 2023-24 to £32.8 bn in 2024-25.
In terms of capital spending – the other large chunk that makes up the British defense budget – the amount dips from £19.2bn in 2023-24 to £18.9 bn in 2024-25.
Mark Francois, member of the defense committee, added up these losses, saying it was a combined £2.5bn drop in defense spending for next year.
While Francois acknowledged the £2.5bn promised to Ukraine, he said these funds are not part of the U.K. defense budget.
He went on to describe Shapps’ numbers as “smoke and mirrors,” accusing him of “suffering a massive defeat at the hands of the Treasury.”
“You’ve had your budget cut by £2.5bn and you’re now trying to play smoke and mirrors with the Ukrainian money to pretend your budget hasn’t been cut when it’s been slashed,” Francois said.
Jeremy Quin, chair of the Defence Committee, joined Francois in his assessment that the defense budget was recording a drop in real terms.
Meanwhile, Shapps stood by his argument, saying the overall defense budget was up £1.4bn to £55.6bn with the Ukraine funding included.
The line of questioning came off the back of a defense committee report published on Feb. 4, which found the Ministry of Defense is unready for a “high-intensity” war.
The report cited capability shortfalls, stockpile shortages and a net loss in personnel, which all combined would delay Britain’s combat readiness.
A review by the Public Accounts Committee, released March 8, found the Ministry’s alleged failure to adequately manage stocks of spares and supplies puts military personnel at risk.
Earlier this year, during a Jan. 15 speech at Lancaster House, Shapps said given the “threats” posed by Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and Houthi rebels in Yemen, the world is “moving from a post-war to a pre-war world.” (Source: Defense News)
27 Mar 24. Nato’s Baltic Air Policing mission enters 20th year as Spanish F-18s rotate to Estonia. Spanish aviators and F-18’s are travelling to Estonia to rotate into Nato’s Baltic Air Policing mission, which turns 20 years old on 30 March.
Nato’s Baltic Air Policing (BAP) mission enters its 20th year on 30 March 2024, just as eight Spanish F-18 fighters, and 150 air force personnel from Spain’s ‘Vilkas’ tactical air detachment rotate to Estonia to take up responsibility for security of the airspace in the region.
The total number of Spanish Air Force personnel will also include aviators from the Armament and Experimentation Logistics Center to help with electronic warfare, and an additional A400 and its crew, bringing the headcount to almost 190 troops.
The BAP is purely is a purely defensive deployment, according to the Nato, intended to offer protection to Nato members as well as partner nations and future potential members.
Lacking the necessary airforce assets to participate in BAP, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, have shared a single standard of security across European Nato airspace via the four-month rotation of outside airforces stationed at airbases in Šiauliai, Lithuania and Ämari, Estonia.
The three Baltic Nato Ally nations contribute to the mission through air command and control infrastructure and personnel and other host nation support. Expansion of the mission footprint include the Ämari Air Base began after the 2014 Russian invasion Crimea.
Considering the geographical circumstances of Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave separated from mainland Russia, Russian flight activity in the region is anticipated, but Russian Federation Aircraft have been diverted from Nato airspace over these countries on repeated occasions during the 20 years of BAP.
Nato aircraft are employed to visually confirm and divert infringements from Russian aircraft that often fly near Nato airspace without transponders, and without either communicating with Nato air traffic control or filing a flight plan, according to Nato.
After the completion of a Royal Air Force (RAF) rotation of the BAP in Estonia in August 2023, the UK Ministry of Defence stated that within since March 2023 RAF Typhoon jets had intercepted 50 Russian aircraft, with more than 300 intercepts occurring in 2023. (Source: airforce-technology.com)
27 Mar 24. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Changes to election law will likely increase long-term rule of law prospects. On 26 March, the international high representative to Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Christian Schmidt, imposed changes to the election law to strengthen electoral integrity. Schmidt stated that the goal is to restore voter trust through measures such as electronic scanning and the professionalisation of the election process. The move comes amid reports of fraud in previous Bosnian elections. It also comes ahead of upcoming local elections in October. Furthermore, it follows the recent EU decision to initiate membership talks with BiH, the success of which depends on, among other factors, the rule of law. Milorad Dodik, the president of the secessionist and ethnic-Serb Republika Srpska (RS) entity in BiH, opposes the changes. Despite Dodik’s relative isolation in BiH, his continued opposition to Schmidt will likely continue to pose moderate protest and stability risks. Nonetheless, the electoral changes are likely aimed at increasing the rule of law in BiH, and thus Sarajevo’s prospects of EU accession (though we assess that this remains highly unlikely for the foreseeable future). (Source: Sibylline)
26 Mar 24. Army can’t afford enough ammunition to protect Britain, general warns. Lieutenant General Sir Rob Magowan told MPs that spending on munitions did not meet ‘the threats that we face’ and asked Rishi Sunak for more money
The British military does not have enough money to buy the ammunition it needs to meet the threats it faces, a senior general has warned, as he revealed the Ministry of Defence’s shopping list to Rishi Sunak.
Lieutenant General Sir Rob Magowan, the deputy chief of the defence staff, said that Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, and his military chiefs had told the prime minister they needed a bigger budget to better protect the UK.
This included money for munitions and for an integrated air and missile defence system which would protect UK assets against attack from the skies, both overseas and at home.
Magowan told MPs on the defence select committee that they had asked Sunak for “additional resource”.
He said: “The amount of money we are spending on munitions, at the moment, does not meet, in all areas, the threats that we face.”
Shapps, who has already said he believes the defence budget should be increased from 2.27 per cent of GDP to 3 per cent in a new parliament, said there was a “vast range of weapons” he would like to buy.
The disclosure by Magowan of gaps in Britain’s military capabilities will pile further pressure on Sunak to increase the defence budget.
Mark Francois, a former armed forces minister who sits on the committee, said that if there were a missile attack on the UK, “we would be virtually blind” because airborne early warning aircraft had been retired several years ago and their replacements are years late.
Sunak is also under pressure to suspend arms sales to Israel because UK-made components are being used in ways that violate international humanitarian law, according to former diplomats and military chiefs.
The UK has licensed at least £474 m of military exports to Israel since 2015, including components for combat aircraft, missiles, tanks, small arms and ammunition.
In an open letter to the prime minister, Brigadier John Deverell, a former director of diplomacy at the Ministry of Defence, and more than a dozen former ambassadors said that they were “deeply troubled” by events in Gaza.
They pointed to evidence indicating that armaments with UK components had been used in operations that were causing “avoidable” civilian casualties and destruction of medical infrastructure.
They said that the F-35 stealth jet contained many UK-made parts and was being used to devastate parts of Gaza, causing immense suffering.
“Gaza’s built landscape is rapidly deteriorating, with over 60 per cent of homes already destroyed. This devastating conflict has already seen over 30,000 lives lost and the bloodshed must end,” they said.
Their concern was heightened by the recurrent misuse of such arms, which they said risked UK complicity in war crimes. They added that the government should suspend all arms transfer licences until there was clear evidence that the Israeli government had put in place the processes to ensure such armaments would never be used again in violation of international law.
Signatories included Sir Vincent Fean, former ambassador to Libya and consul general in Jerusalem, Frances Guy, former ambassador to Lebanon and Yemen, Lord Green of Deddington, former ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Syria, and Major General Charles Vyvyan, former defence attaché in Washington.
On Tuesday the UN humanitarian office called for Israel to revoke an apparent ban on food deliveries to northern Gaza from UNRWA, the UN refugee agency for Palestinians, saying that people there were facing a “cruel death by famine”.
Israel said on Monday that it would stop working with UNRWA in Gaza, accusing the aid agency of perpetuating conflict. The agency said Israel told it that it would no longer approve its food convoys to north Gaza. (Source: The Times)
26 Mar 24. Armenia: Possible territorial concessions to Azerbaijan will drive anti-government unrest, attacks. On 24 March, three individuals were charged with terror offences after attempting to attack a police station with hand grenades in the capital Yerevan. The assailants were attempting to free members of the Combat Brotherhood organisation, 49 members of which were detained earlier on 24 March for planning to hold self-defence training sessions in a village in Armenia’s Tavush province. The organisation opposes the transfer of several villages in Tavush to Azerbaijan. The detention of its members comes after Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced on 18 March his readiness to return various Armenian-controlled Azerbaijani territories in Tavush to Baku to avoid a resumption of conflict with Azerbaijan. Residents of the villages warned that they would engage in self-defence should the authorities proceed with any territorial transfer. We assess that the latest incidents underscore that any territorial concessions made by Yerevan to Baku will represent a trigger for anti-government protests and attacks directed at government entities. (Source: Sibylline)
25 Mar 24. Baltic States and Nato deterrence to benefit from US $228m funding. The Baltic Security Initiate saw an increase in funding, up to $228m, following the passage of US government funding legislation. The defence postures of Nato allies Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania stand to benefit from the passing of the US government funding legislation that passed through Congress on 22 March 2024, as the bill will provision for $228m in security aid for the Baltic Security Initiative. The focus of the funding, according to the Estonian Ministry of Defence, is on developing air defence, maritime situational awareness, and land forces. Bordering the Baltic Sea in close proximity to Russia, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has inspired a heightened pattern of defence spending across the nations. While Russia has sustained heavy losses to its land forces during the war, on 13 March 2024 the Atlantic Council think tank pointed to multiple estimates that Russia could reconstitute its forces in three to five years, highlighting this as an opportunity and necessity for Nato forces to enhance their deterrence posture in the region. Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur welcomed the passage of the bill, which included $47.3m for Estonia’s Foreign Military Financing programme. “Support from the US has significantly helped Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania fast track several military infrastructure and capability development projects.” With internal US pressure, and parties closely examining and debating the pattern of spending by the Biden administration on internationalist projects, Pevkur was heartened to see the support for Baltic States rise to the new level from 2023’s $225m, and the $169m provided in 2022.
“The good news is that the support is slightly higher than last year. This sends a clear signal that the US, the largest ally in NATO, is committed to the security and stability of our region,” said Pevkur.
The Baltic Security Initiative was begun in 2020 by the US Department of Defence as a means to support the defence capabilities and interoperability of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. (Source: army-technology.com)
25 Mar 24. Bulgaria: Snap elections are increasingly likely following further deterioration of government stability. On 25 March, the former EU commissioner, Mariya Gabriel, retracted her bid to become Bulgaria’s next prime minister. The post has been vacant since January, when the anti-graft We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria alliance (PP-DB) left the position as part of a power-sharing agreement with the centre-right GERB party. PP-DB and GERB agreed to form a ‘grand coalition’ to tackle corruption and enhance the rule of law with a rotating prime minister every nine months. Gabriel’s announcement to give up her bid for the premiership followed her proposal of a GERB-led cabinet on 19 March. The PP-DB alliance did not accept the proposal, citing its alleged GERB dominance, after which Gabriel gave up on further negotiations. While the PP-DB alliance technically now has the chance to propose a cabinet, we assess that the soured relationships and strained negotiations have rendered an approval by GERB unlikely. A collapse of the uneasy coalition and subsequent snap elections are possible in the coming weeks. Should this occur, policy risks will increase. (Source: Sibylline)
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