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17 Feb 24. Trump comments show Europe must spend more on defence, Latvia says. Donald Trump’s stark comments on NATO show that Europeans should take more responsibility for their security, but they will still need the transatlantic military alliance, Latvian Foreign Minister Krisjanis Karins said.
Trump sparked fierce criticism from top Western officials for saying that, as U.S. president, he had told an unnamed leader he would not protect countries that failed to meet NATO defence spending targets, and would even encourage Russia to attack them.
Karins, a former prime minister of his Baltic nation who was born and raised in the U.S., said in an interview with Reuters that Trump’s comments last week were “unexpectedly sharp”, but reflected broader U.S. sentiment which Europe should heed.
“Many presidents have been saying for many years that in Europe, we – being a generally wealthy society – should invest more in our own defence,” Karins said as he walked between events at the annual Munich Security Conference on Friday.
“The U.S. over time, I think, will be less inclined to feel that they have to fully underwrite European security,” he said.
Karins said part of Europe’s response should be to continue to spend more on defence – a trend fuelled by Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014 and full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
He pointed out that NATO this week estimated that 18 of its 31 members would meet the alliance target of spending 2% of gross domestic product on defence in 2024, up from 11 in 2023.
“There is a group of us that are investing above the minimum and are planning to go to 3% and even more, given the circumstance that we’re in and the real threat of Russia,” said Karins, whose country shares a border with Russia.
Karins said Europe would still need the structures and coordination provided by the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization for its forces to operate effectively together, as Europe was not a country with a single army.
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“We have many armies with many different specifications of weapons systems,” he said. “We will still need NATO to help coordinate us.” (Source: Reuters)
15 Feb 24. UK MoD scraps price formula to speed up defence contracts. The UK Ministry of Defence attempts to expedite the acquisition of new and innovative systems from sole-source contractors. The Single Source Regulations Office (SSRO) – a non-departmental public body overseeing non-competitive procurement – has updated changes to its pricing guidance, due to come into force from 1 April 2024. Ultimately, this will expedite the pace at which the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) acquires new and innovative systems from single source contractors in the commerical sector.
“Currently the regulations provide for qualifying contracts to be priced only by applying a specified price formula which has proved in some circumstances to be inflexible, as exemptions may only be granted with the direct approval of the Secretary of State and are time-consuming for all parties,” an MoD spokesperson explained.
With the new changes, “it will now be possible, in appropriate circumstances, to set aside the pricing formula, and use specified alternative methods to price a qualifying contract,” the MoD added.
“This will have the effect of enabling fairer and more appropriate pricing, so bringing more single source contracts under the protection of the regulations.”
In addition, the MoD points out that more flexibility and transparency will be achieved by broadening the ability for a contract to be split into different components or parts. Each part will be allocated its own profit rate and price (known as ‘componentisation’). (Source: airforce-technology.com)
16 Feb 24. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Proceedings over electoral bill will likely raise government instability risks. On 15 February, reports emerged regarding the closed meetings held by the leaders of the Croatian, Bosniak and Serbian constituencies to discuss changes to the country’s electoral law. High Representative Christian Schmidt proposed changes to the law in July 2023 to harmonise it with the judgement of the European Court of Human Rights. These included measures to decrease the role of ethnicity in political appointments as well as rules to increase transparency surrounding political funding. The position of High Representative was installed by the international community after the Bosnian war ended in 1995 to ensure peace between the country’s three different ethnic constituencies. The fact that Bosnian leaders discussed the law without public scrutiny points to efforts to weaken the bill. It also underscores continued ethnic tensions and corruption risks, which will likely elevate Bosnia’s political deadlock. We assess that this situation will possibly lead to measures by the High Representative’s office, such as the annulment of changes proposed by the country’s leaders. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Feb 24. Poland’s ex-defense chief pushes to max out South Korean arms deals. As the Polish Ministry of National Defence is locked in negotiations with South Korea’s government on weapon deliveries, accusing Seoul of offering “unacceptable” financial terms, Poland’s largest opposition party is calling on the new government here to contract for even more weapons from the Asian nation.
Former Defence Minister Mariusz Błaszczak, who is a lawmaker for the right-wing Law and Justice party and chairs its parliamentary faction, signed numerous deals to buy South Korean weapons worth billions of dollars while in office. The orders included FA-50 light attack aircraft, K9 howitzers, K2 Black Panther tanks, and K239 Chunmoo multi-barreled missile launchers. The politician believes the government should acquire the maximum number of units foreseen in the framework contracts.
“To date, we have signed executive contracts for the delivery of more than 200 K239 Chunmoo launchers, 48 FA-50 aircraft, more than 300 K9 howitzers, and nearly 200 K2 tanks. To fully execute the framework agreements we made with the Koreans, the current government should contract more K9s, K2s, and Chunmoos,” Błaszczak told Defense News in a statement. “My intention was also – and this was included in the framework agreements – that Korean tanks and howitzers should ultimately be produced in Poland.”
Calling the deals “an extraordinary opportunity,” Błaszczak took a swing at his successor at the Ministry of Defence, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, saying the department had yet to articulate “clear declarations” in favor of additional arms purchases.
Earlier this week, Kosiniak-Kamysz, who is also the deputy prime minister, told local broadcaster Polsat News “the contracts which were concluded, under which gear is being delivered to Poland, yes, they will be continued.”
The statement leaves room for forgoing additional weapons buys that were to financed by a second, larger loan issues by the Asian country.
Upon taking office in December, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced there was a “problem” with the loan terms, as decision-makers started to scrutinize the preceding Cabinet’s military acquisitions.
At the same time, South Korean officials are bracing for the April 10 parliamentary election, and the campaign is delaying legislative work necessary for the provision of a second loan to Warsaw, local observers say. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Defense News)
15 Feb 24. Greece, Turkey Join European Sky Shield Initiative. Greece and Turkey have joined the growing number of NATO alliance and non-alliance nations to sign up to the German-led European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) for ground-based air defense procurement.
Some 21 countries have now joined the initiative, which is focused on strengthening ground-based air defenses in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the extensive use by the aggressor of ballistic and cruise missiles as well as one-way attack uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS). Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias and Turkish counterpart Yaşar Güler signed a letter of intent to enter the ESSI initiative on the sidelines of a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels on Feb. 14-15.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said 21 European nations are now “standing united” in their commitment to strengthening ground-based air defenses. He cited Germany, Estonia, Latvia and Slovenia, which have acquired the German-made Diehl IRIS-T SLM surface-launched, medium-range system, the first deliveries of which will take place next year. Pistorius said the system was “proving its outstanding performance in Ukraine.”
ESSI was initially started so that nations buying new ground-based air defenses could exploit the benefits of common procurements between several nations, reaping cost savings through economies of scale.
Last month, several Patriot operating nations, tendering through NATO’s Support and Procurement Agency, contracted for 1,000 Guidance Enhanced Missile-Tactical (GEM-T) weapons, which will be produced in Germany.
Pistorius said the next step in ESSI will be collaboration between nations on training and operation of the systems, and the establishment of user communities for the different systems being procured.
“ESSI will definitely strengthen the integrated air missile defense capabilities of the participating nations as well as the alliance,” Dendias said in a statement following the signing. “It will promote innovation, which is very much needed, as well as new technologies, cooperation and synergies between the defense ecosystem of the participating countries.”
Güler said Turkey would contribute to the initiative with what he called “a wide spectrum of domestic capabilities,” suggesting that the country will propose domestically developed air defense systems to European countries. (Source: Google/AvWeek)
15 Feb 24. Czech Republic military modernisation bags record budget. Escalating regional tensions drives an increase in defence spending, with a focus on modernisation and strategic alliances.
Amidst growing security concerns in Europe, the Czech Republic is ramping up its defence budget, signalling a shift towards modernising its armed forces and strengthening international partnerships.
The Czech Republic is undergoing an overhaul of its defence capabilities, with a particular emphasis on modernisation efforts within both the Army and Air Force. According to GlobalData’s “Czech Republic Defense Market 2023-2028” report, the country’s defence budget is set to soar to $7.7bn (Kč181.7bn) by 2028, recording a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 9.1%.
The surge in defence spending is fueled by the imperative to upgrade outdated military platforms and enhance readiness for high-intensity conflict scenarios. Notable acquisitions include the replacement of leased J-39 Gripens with participation in the F-35 programme, introducing capabilities like electronic warfare and long-range strike capabilities.
The Czech Republic finalised the deal to purchase 24 Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II jets, enhancing its defence capabilities and reinforcing NATO’s deterrence. The first batch is scheduled for delivery in 2031.
In 2023, the Czech Republic also decided to enhance its military transport capabilities by negotiating the acquisition of two Embraer C-390 Millennium multi-mission aircraft. The C-390 enhances the Czech Republic’s preparedness for missions, including cargo and troop transport, medical evacuation, and humanitarian operations.
The modernisation drive extends to the Army, focusing on restructuring formation structures to meet evolving security needs, augmenting standing strength, and establishing an active reserve force.
Furthermore, the Czech Republic prioritises investments in emerging technologies such as drones and modern air defence systems to adapt to evolving security challenges. Defence cooperation with allies, particularly within NATO, has intensified, focusing on joint forces operations and interoperability. The country actively participates in EU-led security initiatives, leveraging platforms like the European Defense Fund to foster research in defence technologies.
Navigating the defence procurement landscape, the Czech Ministry of Defense faces the challenge of aligning its processes with EU guidelines and NATO compatibility.
The Czech Republic’s military modernisation drive has been fuelled by the need to replace equipment donated to Ukraine following Russia’s invasion, and also to improve its capabilities in the face of regional tensions caused by this.
An example of this is the Czech Republic, Denmark, and the Netherlands joining forces in an agreement to enhance Ukraine’s defence capabilities, facilitating the supply of weaponry and military equipment. The agreement involves the provision of modern and refurbished military equipment, including tanks, howitzers, small arms, and air defence systems. (Source: airforce-technology.com)
15 Feb 24. NATO Leader Highlights Programs to Increase Defense, Deterrence. Steps to secure NATO and aid Ukraine were at the heart of discussions defense ministers held at NATO headquarters today, said alliance leader Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
The defense ministers also discussed the general security environment almost two years since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “We can never take peace for granted, but we do not see any imminent military threat against the alliance,” Stoltenberg said. “NATO continues to ensure there is no room for miscalculation in Moscow about our readiness to protect all allies.”
Since Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, the NATO allies have significantly strengthened the alliance’s deterrence and defense. NATO leaders agreed to revamp alliance defense plans at the Vilnius summit in Lithuania last year, and the defense ministers reviewed those steps in preparation for the summit in Washington in July. That summit will mark the 75th anniversary of the Washington Treaty that established the defensive alliance.
At today’s meeting, the ministers were briefed about NATO’s Exercise Steadfast Defender, the largest NATO exercise in decades. About 90,000 service members from the 31 allies and Sweden are participating. The exercise, which began Jan. 24 and continues for four months, aims to test the new defense plans and the ability of the alliance “to swiftly move forces across the alliance to defend our eastern flank,” Stoltenberg said.
The defense ministers “accelerated work on resourcing our new defense plans and strengthening our transatlantic defense industrial base,” the secretary general said. “This requires investment, and we are on the right track. I expect 18 allies to spend 2% of their GDP on defense this year, a six-fold increase from only three allies in 2014.”
The European allies and Canada are on track to spend $380 billion on defense in 2024, which is 2% of the combined gross domestic product of those countries. “We still have a way to go, but we have already made historic progress,” he said.
The defense ministers also discussed moves to ramp up ammunition production to resupply NATO nations and continue to support Ukraine. “We need to shift from the slow pace of peacetime to the high-tempo production demanded by conflict,” he said. “To do that, manufacturers need signed contracts, and just in the past few months, NATO has agreed to contracts worth $10 billion. This helps Ukraine, makes NATO stronger, and provides more highly skilled jobs in Europe and North America.”
Stoltenberg said the ministerial featured a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council.
The ministers heard from Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who briefed them on the latest developments on the ground. They also discussed the importance of continued support. “Just in the past few days, we have seen new packages of aid announced by allies, including Canada, Finland and Norway,” Stoltenberg said.
These packages include F-16 equipment and spare parts and air defense capabilities. “A group of allies is coming together with the goal of delivering one million drones to Ukraine,” he said. “Twenty NATO allies have also agreed to form a demining coalition. All of this will help to save Ukrainian lives.”
Since Russia’s invasion, the United States has provided Ukraine with around $75 billion in military, financial and humanitarian aid. “Other NATO allies and partners have provided over $100 billion,” the secretary general said. “So, our support is an example of true transatlantic burden-sharing, and it is making a real difference every day.”
Stoltenberg announced that the defense ministers agreed to place a new NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Center in Bydgoszcz, Poland. “It will allow Ukraine to share lessons learned from Russia’s war,” he said. “And it will create a structure for Ukrainian forces to learn and train alongside their allied counterparts.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
15 Feb 24. Von der Leyen says European Commission will seek to boost defence production – FT. Brussels should incentivise Europe’s defence industry to ramp up production and promote consolidation, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the Financial Times in an interview on Thursday, warning that the “world has got rougher”.
Proposals in the commission’s plan include using the EU budget to increase financing to supplement joint contracts for weapons signed by member states, as well as guaranteeing that production will be bought, EU officials told FT.
“We have a very fragmented defence market and that needs to change,” FT quoted von der Leyen as saying. “What is the competence of the commission? It’s industry. This is our core business. We are an enabler, not a buyer.” (Source: Reuters)
15 Feb 24. Statement from Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Today’s NATO Defense Ministerial in Brussels. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III provided the following statement on today’s NATO Defense Ministerial in Brussels:
I am pleased by the progress that the United States and its allies made at today’s meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels. Almost two years after Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine—the most serious threat to transatlantic security in decades—NATO has grown stronger and more united than ever.
NATO is the strongest military alliance in history, and it is crucial for America’s continued security. As President Biden has noted, “NATO is built on the fundamental principles of freedom, security, and national sovereignty.” A secure America is impossible without a strong NATO.
The blunt military reality is that America’s allies are a profoundly powerful force multiplier. Those who wish America harm have long sought to rupture NATO. This mighty alliance’s continued unity is vital to meet the strategic dangers posed by Putin’s unprovoked aggression and imperial dreams.
NATO became even more capable last year when Finland joined our proud alliance. I again urge Hungary to support immediate NATO accession for Sweden, which is both a stalwart democracy and a hugely capable defense partner. The United States looks forward to welcoming Sweden as an ally to NATO’s 75th-anniversary Washington Summit in July.
At the Vilnius Summit last year, our leaders made historic decisions that will strengthen NATO’s deterrence and defense. Today, my fellow ministers of defense continued our work to fulfill our leaders’ commitments and to provide the full resources necessary for our new regional plans.
These plans will improve our ability to deter and defend against any threat, well into the future. But to do so, we need all of our allies to provide resources for the plans and allocate the necessary troops and capabilities. Allies also must continue to invest in their defense industrial bases, which is crucial to the future strength of the alliance.
I welcome what Secretary General Stoltenberg yesterday called an “unprecedented rise” in defense spending across our European and Canadian allies, who have added more than $600bn for defense since the Defense Investment Pledge was made in 2014, including a real increase of 11 percent in defense spending in 2023 alone. The Secretary General projects that in 2024, 18 allies will spend at least two percent of their GDP on defense—a major improvement over 2014, when only three hit that target. Any ally not spending at least two percent of GDP on defense this year should have plans to swiftly meet that target.
The allies also reaffirmed our enduring commitment to a free and sovereign Ukraine, including a productive meeting among our allies, the European Union, and Ukraine in the recently established NATO-Ukraine Council. We stand behind NATO’s continued support of Ukraine through the Comprehensive Assistance Package—NATO’s multi-year program for critical, non-lethal aid. That effort complements the more than $87 billion in bilateral security assistance that the United States and countries around the world have committed over the past two years to help Ukraine defend itself from Putin’s unprovoked aggression.
We are coming up on the two-year mark since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The United States and our allies and partners will stand by Ukraine for the long haul.
The United States will continue to stand with our NATO allies and to defend the sovereignty and the territory of every alliance member—every inch of it, as President Biden has repeatedly made clear. Our commitment to Article Five remains ironclad.
Our allies magnify our strength and expand our security. America’s network of allies and partners worldwide—built and sustained by wise administrations of both parties in the decades since the nightmare of World War II—remains a core strategic strength that no rival can match and that none should doubt.
U.S. leadership on the world stage will not diminish, and we will continue to strengthen our bonds with our deeply valued allies as we look toward NATO’s historic 75th-anniversary summit in Washington. NATO remains the greatest alliance in history—and as President Biden said at the Vilnius Summit, NATO today is stronger, more united, and “more vital to our shared future” than ever. (Source: U.S. DoD)
14 Feb 24. Readout of U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s Call With NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder provided the following readout: Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg today on the eve of tomorrow’s NATO Defense Ministerial. They discussed the positive outcomes related to today’s virtual Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) meeting, the critical role NATO plays in ensuring Transatlantic security, and reviewed priorities for the Ministerial and upcoming NATO Summit in Washington.
Secretary Austin reiterated the United States’ full support for the NATO Alliance and noted the importance of strengthening our collective deterrence and defense, including through investments to Allied defense industrial bases.
While acknowledging more work remains, Secretary Austin applauded today’s announcement by Secretary General Stoltenberg that in 2024, NATO’s European Allies will invest a collective total of $380bn in defense. For the first time, this amounts to 2% of their combined gross domestic product. This follows an unprecedented increase in 2023, which saw a rise of 11% in defense spending across Allies.
Secretary Austin and Secretary General Stoltenberg discussed Allies’ commitment to provide the full resources necessary to deter and defend against any threat and highlighted the importance of increasing transatlantic defense production. Secretary General Stoltenberg noted that in the past year, NATO has facilitated contracts worth around $10 bn to replenish Allied stocks of munitions and equipment.
Both leaders underscored NATO’s importance on the global stage and its preeminence as the gold standard of Alliances – the most successful in history – and despite disagreements – Allies have always been able to unite around our core task: to defend each other and keep our people safe.
Both agreed that America’s Allies are a powerful force multiplier and when NATO speaks as one, our adversaries listen.
Secretary Austin and Secretary General Stoltenberg reaffirmed their commitment to advancing NATO’s work at tomorrow’s Defense Ministerial in Brussels and to continued Allied unity on the road to NATO’s 75th Anniversary Summit in Washington, DC this July. (Source: U.S. DoD)
14 Feb 24. NATO Ministers to Discuss Ukraine, Spending, Deterrence at Brussels Meeting. Russia’s war in Ukraine, NATO spending, progress in meeting the goals of the Vilnius Summit and preparations for the Washington Summit this summer are on the agenda for the NATO Defense Ministers Meeting, said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at a news conference in Brussels today.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III is not attending the meeting due to health reasons. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith will represent the secretary at the ministerial. Celeste Wallander, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, will assist her.
At the Vilnius Summit, allies pledged to strengthen defense and deterrence, and this requires investment. Overall, European allies are meeting the alliance investment pledge of 2% of gross domestic product for defense, Stoltenberg said.
The secretary general announced the latest figures. “Since the Investment Pledge was made in 2014, European allies and Canada have added more than 600bn U.S. dollars for defense,” he said.
Just last year, the European allies and Canada increased their investments by 11%. “This year, I expect 18 allies to spend 2% of their GDP on defense,” he said. In 2014, when Russia illegally annexed Crimea from Ukraine, only three NATO allies were at the 2% level.
“In 2024, NATO allies in Europe will invest a combined total of $380bn in defense,” Stoltenberg said. “For the first time, this amounts to 2% of their combined GDP.”
While this is progress, more is needed, he said. He noted that the 2% goal is now not a goal, but the minimum countries should invest.
“At the ministerial, we will also discuss further ramping up production of ammunition,” the secretary general said. “In the past few months, NATO has agreed contracts worth $10bn. And just this week, Germany launched construction for a new ammunition factory in lower Saxony.”
The ministers will also review new alliance defense plans that are being tested in Exercise Steadfast Defender, the largest NATO exercise since before the fall of the Berlin Wall.
The exercise includes all 31 allies and Sweden.
“We can never take peace for granted, but there is no imminent military threat against any NATO ally,” Stoltenberg said. “NATO will continue to ensure that there is no room for miscalculation in Moscow about our readiness and resolve to protect all allies.”
The defense ministers will also participate in a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council, that will follow the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group. “Both of these meetings will focus on our support,” the secretary general said. “We continue to help Ukraine move closer to NATO standards on everything from procurement to logistics, and allies continue to make major deliveries of weapons, equipment and ammunition. This support makes a real difference.
“With our help, the brave Ukrainians have retaken half of the territory that Russia seized, opened a corridor in the Black Sea and are inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces.”
Stoltenberg welcomed the European Union’s pledge of aid to Ukraine and called on the U.S. Congress to follow suit. “This is not charity,” he said. “It is an investment in our own security.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
14 Feb 24. Nato will today announce that almost two-thirds of its members are set to spend 2 per cent of their GDP on defence, a significant step up that improves Europe’s ability to defend itself both against Moscow and a potentially antagonistic future US president. I have more on that below, while our man in the Balkans reports on the latest flashpoint between Serbia and Kosovo: currency. Trump-proofing Nato will announce today that 18 of its 31 members are set to meet a self-imposed target of spending at least 2 per cent of their GDP on defence this year, chiming with a wider plan to contain the potential perils of a second Donald Trump presidency. Context: Trump is nailed-on to be the Republican candidate for November’s US election, and leads incumbent Joe Biden in many polls. Trump is a Nato-sceptic and foreign policy isolationist. US support for Nato, and commitment to its Article 5 mutual defence clause, is the bedrock of European defence. Low defence spending by European governments is a key bugbear for Trump, and was one of the reasons he has continually threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance. He said this weekend that Russia should do “whatever the hell they want” with a European state missing the 2 per cent target, prompting understandable outrage across the Atlantic. Getting 18 countries to the threshold in 2024 is great progress. In 2016, before Trump was elected, just five made it. Last year, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands didn’t. Nato officials are also quietly confident that number could tick up further by the end of the year, especially given the potential for spending announcements at July’s Nato summit in Washington, which will mark 75 years of the alliance. Higher spending helps proof Europe against attacks at a time of war on the continent, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But it will also please the potential next occupant of the White House. “It is a favourite pastime within Nato to consider what we will do under a new US president,” said one senior alliance diplomat. “[Trump’s] remarks were not pleasant . . . but he has a point about spending.” In addition to spending more, European Nato leaders know that they will need to focus on Trump’s other pet issues should he win the election, such as containing China and tackling terrorism. And, of course, once more learning to hold their tongue, nod along politely, and flatter his leadership, as they were forced to do during his first four years. “You have to have a smart selflessness, and give credit to Trump when it’s due,” said Oana Lungescu, Nato’s chief spokesperson from 2010 to 2013. “It’s about working out what are the underlying strategic issues Trump is raising and acknowledging that some of them are good for the alliance to address.” (Source: FT.com)
13 Feb 24. Could Labour afford to underfund UK’s hollowed-out defence? Department demands on extra cash and lousy economic inheritance will be challenging, but party has some room for manoeuvre Labour leader Keir Starmer during his visit to meet British troops at Tapa forward operating Nato base, near the Russian border in Estonia. You may recall, shortly before Christmas that Keir Starmer pitched up to visit the UK troops deployed to Tapa, in Estonia — a jolly that resulted in a fairly good photo op. There was significant low politics to the trip: he managed to avoid “pulling a Dukakis” (translation: looking like a dweeb). But there was bigger meaning to the visit, too. The UK presence in Estonia — the “enhanced forward presence” — matters: it is a cornerstone of the defence of perhaps the most exposed Nato member, Estonia. It is also the UK’s most important such defence commitment. So Labour, which is likely to take office within 12 months, should absorb, with interest, the views of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service. Its annual report for 2024, out this morning, has been written up by colleagues here. But I want to pick one note from the report on Russia’s current trajectory of rearming and rebuilding. This army is likely to be technologically inferior to Nato allies’ defence forces in most areas, except for electronic warfare and long-range strike capabilities. However, its military potential would be significant, owing to its size, firepower (including artillery and numerous inexpensive combat drones), combat experience and reserves. Defending against a possible conventional attack from such an army would require allied defence forces and defence industries to be significantly more prepared, capable and better stocked with ammunition and material than they currently are. Since February 2022, we have learned that a lot of Moscow’s military capability is lousier than we supposed. But we also must reassess our view of their willingness to absorb losses, draw in fresh recruits, re-equip, divert resources from living standards to the war, convert industrial capacity to military uses and try again. This follows, too, the views last week of Troels Lund Poulsen, the Danish defence minister, who warned that Russia was now more likely to strike at Nato directly: It cannot be ruled out that within a three- to five-year period, Russia will test Article 5 and Nato’s solidarity. That was not Nato’s assessment in 2023. This is new information that is coming to the fore now. Norway’s contribution to this genre this week is less bleak, but still glum: The prospect of any genuine dialogue [between the western allies and Moscow] seems distant, and Russia’s policies towards the west and Norway are expected to become more unpredictable in the years to come. Starmer will need to think about all this — because taking office means inheriting a mess. We are particularly ill-equipped for this moment. The UK has asset-sweated its military. It spends more than its big European peers, but not well — and not enough to match what it wants. Yes, we have aircraft carriers, nukes, pipe bands and the Red Arrows. But Ben Wallace, the previous defence secretary, cut the army’s headcount to 72,500. And, as with all the public services, the army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force cannot even recruit the staff they need at current pay levels. Everywhere you look there are serious problems — with the army in particular trouble. The UK is upgrading its main battle tank — but only aims to have 148 of the new Challenger 3s. A recent parliamentary report speculated about whether the UK could even deploy a heavy division. Anyone who has been following the war in Ukraine would be horrified by the document’s view of the UK’s air defence and artillery. Meanwhile, the usual backstop to the defence of Europe is looking shaky. Let me note the words of Donald Trump, the former and potential future president of the US, who seemed in the past week to encourage an attack on fellow members of Nato that had failed to meet the requirement of spending 2 per cent of GDP on defence: I said: ‘You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent? . . . No I would not protect you, in fact I would encourage them to do whatever they want. You gotta pay’. Free-riding on the US’s vast arsenal and capability is not a reliable strategy. For one thing, we already know that Europe is, almost certainly, going to need to give more kit to Ukraine than we had expected just a few months ago. I should be clear, it is not just about money. As the Economist’s Shashank Joshi put it recently, it is also about: Endemic skills shortages across all branches of the services; a culture of applying short-term fixes; a broken procurement system that too often results in poor value for money. But, let’s get real: right now it’s mostly going to be about money. Wallace wanted defence spending to edge up to 3 per cent of GDP — not a small rise, but an eminently affordable one. That would cover a lot of ground, if sustained. If Labour wins the coming election it will have a compelling story to tell if the party opts for that sort of rise — not least since some Tories would probably break ranks to support them. Grant Shapps, the current defence secretary, has said we are in a “prewar” world. It is hard to pivot from there to sniping about a bigger defence budget. Furthermore, the party enjoys showing off its patriotism. Parts of the Labour movement also like banging on about being the party of Nato and the original nuclear deterrent (these parts of Labour, it so happens, are currently in charge). Defence spending also creates a lot of good on-shored high-tech jobs. But as my colleagues noted this week, Labour is imposing a fiscal straitjacket on itself — promising not to touch some big revenue-raising levers. Labour’s U-turn on green investment last week was driven by its hawkishness. It has some room for manoeuvre — more than the leadership lets on. But Labour would inherit a lousy fiscal position, combined with 14 years of skin-and-bones public services that need a lot of patching up. There will be demand for cash from all over the place. Just take the NHS: in January 2011, 17 people were forced to wait more than 12 hours in a hospital emergency department for admission or discharge in England. This January, it was 54,000. This, in truth, is the real challenge for defence. The armed forces are deeply eroded; it is under-appreciated in Westminster how hollowed out they now are and why that might be a growing risk. But a new Labour government will find there are expensive problems everywhere. (Source: FT.com)
13 Feb 24. Russia has put Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas on a wanted list, the first time the Kremlin has sought criminal charges against a foreign leader nearly two years since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Kallas is listed as wanted in the Russian interior ministry’s database of suspects, independent news site Mediazona reported on Tuesday, alongside other Baltic politicians critical of the Kremlin and its war, including Lithuania’s culture minister and dozens of lawmakers in Latvia. The ministry did not say what Kallas had been charged with, but the move comes after a senior Russian law enforcement official ordered investigations of Estonia’s plan to remove a monument involving a Soviet tank last year. “These people are responsible for decisions to essentially mock historical memory. And these people are taking hostile acts towards hostile acts in our country,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday. Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova also implied the charges against the Baltic politicians were tied to the push to remove Soviet monuments, which gathered pace across the region after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. “They must answer for their crimes against the memory of those who liberated the world from Nazism and fascism! And this is just the beginning,” Zakharova wrote on social media app Telegram. The Estonian government agreed in the summer of 2022 to remove all Soviet monuments from public spaces. “It is important to over-emphasise that commemorating the dead is not prohibited in any way and will not be prohibited, but that it should be done in the right place and that is at a cemetery, where it can be done with dignity,” Kallas said at the time. The popularity of the Estonian prime minister, who has put herself forward as a candidate to become the next head of Nato, was dented after it was revealed that a company part owned by her husband continued doing business in Russia in the past two years. Recommended News in-depthWar in Ukraine Families ask Putin to bring Russian soldiers home from Ukraine Russia’s charges against Kallas are part of about 700 cases against foreigners that have clear political motivations, according to Mediazona. Nearly 400 foreigners are wanted in Russia for fighting for Ukraine in the war, a list that appears to be solely based on one post by Rybar, a popular pro-war blogger on Telegram. A further 174 Ukrainians, including three former defence ministers and two former commanders of the armed forces, are also wanted for alleged crimes linked to the invasion. Kaupo Rosin, head of the Estonian foreign intelligence service, warned on Tuesday that Russia would double its military presence along its border with Finland and the Baltic states in the coming years and “do everything to try to destabilise the eastern flank of Nato”. (Source: FT.com)
13 Feb 24. Russia intends to double the number of its troops stationed along its border with the Baltic states and Finland as it prepares for a potential military conflict with Nato within the next decade, according to Estonia’s foreign intelligence service. Kaupo Rosin, director-general of the Estonian service, whose analysis of Russia is closely followed in western capitals, is the latest European official to warn of Moscow’s continued appetite for conflict beyond its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While stressing that Russia is currently not “willing to conduct any military actions towards Nato”, he said, “we see that the Russians in their own thinking are calculating that military conflict with Nato is possible in the next decade”. Russian military reforms gradually unveiled since late 2022 indicate a “substantial” increase in troops on Nato’s eastern flank, Rosin said ahead of his agency publishing its annual report on Tuesday. “Russians are planning to increase the military force along the Baltic states’ border but also the Finnish border,” Rosin said. “We will highly likely see an increase of manpower, about doubling, perhaps. We will see an increase in armed personnel carriers, tanks, artillery systems over the coming years.” The intelligence report said the number of troops Russia has stationed on its border with Estonia may almost double from the 19,000 that were there before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Along the 1,340km-long border with new Nato member Finland, a new army corps would probably consist of “two or three manoeuvre units with around a dozen fire support and combat support units”, the report added. A similar build-up of weaponry and soldiers along the Russian border with Ukraine was observed in the months leading up to February 2022, when Vladimir Putin’s troops began moving towards Kyiv. Troels Lund Poulsen, Denmark’s defence minister, last week warned of the possibility of a Russian attack within three to five years, saying that “new information” had come to light that was previously unknown to Nato countries. Rosin said it was up to Nato allies to deter Russia by stepping up their military spending. Estonia is planning to spend more than 3 per cent of GDP this year on defence, above Nato’s 2 per cent target, which larger European countries including France and Germany still struggle to meet. “We can manage this from our side,” he added. “It’s not only about how Russians think. It is possible for us to influence the Russian calculation.” Donald Trump, who is seeking to become US president again in November’s elections, said at the weekend that Russia could do “whatever they hell they want” with Nato countries that fail to meet the 2 per cent target. Rosin said of those remarks: “Such statements are never helpful. But probably the Russians are paranoid enough not just to listen to the words which are said but they will definitely look at the actions.” While European countries have found it difficult to spend more on defence and increase weapons production for Ukraine, Russia’s war budget is a staggering Rbs14.3tn for 2024, or 6 per cent of GDP. Russian arms factories are working around the clock, and supplies from Iran and North Korea have enabled Putin’s army to outgun Ukraine as western aid for Kyiv begins to waver. Recommended Anders Fogh Rasmussen The west has not gone far enough in sanctioning Russia Russia made 3.5mn units of ammunition last year, far outstripping Ukraine’s own production and western supplies, according to the Estonian service. That figure will rise to 4.5mn in 2024 while western production remains slow, meaning the gap between Russian and Ukrainian forces will widen still, the report said. Still, Russia has sustained heavy equipment losses, which included more than 2,600 tanks, 5,100 armoured personnel carriers and 600 self-propelled artillery units as of last month, according to the report. In a bid to circumvent western sanctions that limit Moscow’s access to machine tools, production lines and factory equipment, Putin has ordered the modernising of armoured vehicles retrieved from storage and aggressively pursuing alternative supplies, particularly from China and Hong Kong, the report said. Event details and information Africa Summit. (Source: FT.com)
12 Feb 24. Germany’s Scholz pledges to meet 2% NATO spending target. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday said defence companies could count on his government ramping up military spending and that it would meet its commitment to spend 2% of GDP on NATO defence. Scholz was speaking after former U.S. President Donald Trump sparked outrage among U.S. allies by suggesting the United States might not protect fellow NATO members who are not spending enough on defence against a potential Russian invasion.
While in office, Trump publicly criticised countries that did not meet the NATO alliance’s goal to spend 2% of gross domestic product on defence.
Scholz said Germany and Europe’s defence industry must switch towards mass production of arms as the war in Ukraine exposed how European manufacturers struggled to meet demand for ammunition.
Scholz was on a visit to the future site of Rheinmetall’s (RHMG.DE), opens new tab arms factory in central Germany.
“We have to move away from manufacturing towards large-scale production of defence equipment,” Scholz said.
“Not only the United States, but all European countries must do even more to support Ukraine. The pledges made so far are not enough. Germany’s power alone is not enough.”
Scholz said the military and Germany’s defence industry could now depend on Berlin’s commitment to meet the 2% NATO target.
“That is urgently needed. Because as harsh as this reality is: we do not live in times of peace,” Scholz said.
He added that European states must bundle their arms orders together to help the industry meet longer-term commitments.
“If I want to buy a VW Golf in two or three years, then I know today: It will exist. I might have to wait three or six months for it, but then the car will be in the yard,” he said.
“But that’s not how arms production works. Tanks, howitzers, helicopters and anti-aircraft systems are not on the shelf somewhere.”
Rheinmetall, one of the biggest producers of artillery and tank shells in the world, began ramping up production after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, where the need for ammunition has exacerbated a shortage and left European manufacturers struggling to meet demand.
“The construction of our new factory is a direct result of the changing times,” Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said.
The plant, which is expected to begin production next year, will contribute to the making of around 200,000 artillery shells every year.
Rheinmetall said it is planning to invest 300 m euros ($323 m) and create around 500 new jobs.
It aims to be able to cover the Bundeswehr’s demand for ammunition manufactured in Germany and also guarantee deliveries to partner countries in the event of a crisis. Rheinmetall intends to produce the entire value chain for artillery ammunition at the factory in central Unterluess. (Source: Reuters)
12 Feb 24. Finland: Election of pro-NATO president will ensure foreign policy continuity. The former prime minister, Alexander Stubb, will become Finland’s next president after successfully defeating Pekka Haavisto, the former foreign minister, by 51.6% to 48.4% in the second round of the presidential election on 11 February. Stubb will assume the presidency on 1 March, replacing President Sauli Niinistö, who held the office since 2018 and helped Finland to join NATO in 2023. The Finnish president leads the country’s foreign policy on non-EU issues, including Russian policy and representation at NATO meetings. Stubb is an ardent trans-Atlanticist and is known for his liberal stance within his right-wing National Coalition Party (NCP); he supports European integration and marriage equality. Stubb has described China as a ‘strategic rival’, emphasising the need to de-risk rather than de-couple. We assess that Stubb’s win will be seen as a positive development by his European counterparts, ensuring foreign policy continuity and stable bilateral relations. (Source: Sibylline)
12 Feb 24. Hungary: President’s resignation is unlikely to alter government stability, domestic unrest risks. On 10 February, Hungarian President Katalin Novák resigned after small-scale protests erupted over her decision to pardon a man involved in a sexual offence involving children. Novák is a close ally of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán; she held a largely ceremonial role as head of state. The former justice minister, Judit Varga, also resigned; Varga was set to lead the incumbent Fidesz party in the upcoming European Parliament (EP) elections. Opposition parties have claimed that Varga was also responsible for the pardoning and demanded that she step down. It is likely that Orbán sacrificed Novák and Varga to avoid any potential domestic unrest or the formation of oppositional politics. As a result, further protests and/or public expressions of discontent are unlikely to materialise against the government. We also assess that the weakened opposition is unlikely to be able to take this opportunity to increase its influence over Hungary’s politics. (Source: Sibylline)
09 Feb 24. Russia could attack a Nato country in as little as three years, according to Denmark’s defence minister, in the latest and starkest warning from a western official about Moscow’s appetite for confrontation beyond its war in Ukraine. Troels Lund Poulsen joined colleagues from Sweden, the UK, Romania, Germany and others in sounding the alarm about Russia’s increased defence spending potential leading to direct confrontation with Nato, which would test the alliance’s collective defence pledge known as Article 5. “It cannot be ruled out that within a three- to five-year period, Russia will test Article 5 and Nato’s solidarity. That was not Nato’s assessment in 2023. This is new information that is coming to the fore now,” Poulsen told Jyllands-Posten, a Danish newspaper. European countries have increasingly warned in recent weeks that they believe Russia could try to undermine Nato in the coming decade. In private, many worry that an election victory for Donald Trump in November’s US presidential elections could embolden Russia further. Sweden’s military chief and prime minister have both this year warned its citizens to prepare mentally for war, while German and Estonian ministers have said that Russia could be able to attack Nato within five to eight years. While Kyiv’s western allies have struggled to agree further funding and to ramp up arms production for Ukraine, Russia has rebooted its military-industrial complex and secured weapons from countries such as Iran and North Korea. “There is reason to be genuinely concerned,” said Poulsen. “Russia’s capacity to produce military equipment has increased tremendously . . . Russia potentially has the will to [launch attacks]. Now they can also have the ability in terms of military capability earlier than we expected.” Micael Johansson, chief executive of Saab, the Swedish company that is one of Europe’s leading defence groups, told the Financial Times that he was worried about Russia producing more than 10 times more artillery rounds — about 4mn to 5mn a year — than Europe was able to. He said that western governments needed to give more long-term commitments to defence companies. “We are investing heavily. Is that enough? It is not so easy to understand how far we have to go to have deterrence and resilience versus the threat from the east,” Johansson said. He added that there was a significant need for “more sites, more capacity” to manufacture weapons in Europe. Recommended War in Ukraine: economy and trade The surprising resilience of the Russian economy Vlad Gheorghiță, the newly appointed head of the Romanian armed forces, said Russia would target Moldova and the western Balkans if it succeeded in Ukraine, adding that Romanians needed to prepare and the army should be beefed up in response. “The Russian Federation will not stop here. If [Putin] wins in Ukraine, the main target will be the Republic of Moldova. We will witness tensions in the western Balkans. I am more than convinced that President [Vladimir] Putin’s policy will escalate in the immediate future,” Gheorghiță told Radio Free Europe last week. (Source: FT.com)
12 Feb 24. HMS Prince of Wales sails for key NATO exercise in Norway. Britain’s biggest warship today sailed for Norway to lead an international task group in one of the most important military exercises in a generation.
In just seven days, the Portsmouth-based aircraft carrier ship’s company made rapid preparations to be ready to lead the Royal Navy’s involvement in the largest NATO exercise since the Cold War – Steadfast Defender.
The ability to rapidly deploy another carrier to an urgent task underlines the importance of having two aircraft carriers, providing flexibility and the ability to project power around the world.
The crews of both ships and dockyard staff have worked around the clock to prepare HMS Prince of Wales to sail with everything she needs.
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said: “I would like to congratulate the crew of HMS Prince of Wales for their hard work and dedication in rapidly preparing the ship for departure. The ability to deploy hundreds of crew to make ready one of the world’s most complex aircraft carriers within a week is testament to the skill and ability of the Royal Navy.
“In an increasingly dangerous world, where it is more important than ever that we stand united with our allies, HMS Prince of Wales will send a powerful message of collective security and deterrence at the head of this multinational strike group.”
“I am immensely proud of how my ship’s company and their families have responded to this short-notice tasking,” said Captain Will Blackett, HMS Prince of Wales’ Commanding Officer.
“We have managed to bring the ship from 30 days’ notice to immediate readiness in just one week. This has been a monumental effort by the whole enterprise, including HMS Queen Elizabeth, Portsmouth Naval Base, and our numerous defence and industry partners.
“HMS Prince of Wales is now ready to go; we are all looking forward to delivering the mission.”
The carrier’s Logistics Officer, Lieutenant Commander Chris Barnett, added: “In less than a week we have brought onboard approximately 70,000 sailors days rations – £400,000 of food – with 450 pallets of stores and 30,000 toilet rolls; not to mention spare parts for F-35 Lightnings, Merlin and Wildcat helicopters, cold weather kit, and medical stores. It has been an amazing effort from all involved.”
HMS Prince of Wales is taking the place of her sister, HMS Queen Elizabeth, which is unable to participate due to an issue with her propeller shaft coupling.
The aircraft carrier will be at the heart of combined exercises involving the alliance forces, Steadfast Defender – a huge demonstration of NATO’s resolve, unity and capability involving more than 20,000 UK military personnel alone deployed across Scandinavia and northern Europe.
HMS Prince of Wales will lead a carrier strike group of eight ships – four of them British, including frigate HMS Somerset and two Tide-class tankers from the Royal Fleet Auxiliary – supported by US, Spanish and Danish vessels.
They form one of the most potent naval forces of the exercise – an allied fleet of 40 vessels, drawn from more than two dozen nations, committed to the seagoing element of Steadfast Defender, which will take place off Norway’s Arctic coast from late February into March.
The carrier brings the capability of her F-35B Lightning stealth fighters from 617 ‘Dambusters’ Squadron at RAF Marham, submarine hunting and airborne early warning Merlin Mk2 helicopters from RNAS Culdrose, and battlefield Wildcat helicopters of 847 Naval Air Squadron from RNAS Yeovilton.
Before heading for Norwegian waters, HMS Prince of Wales is conducting a week’s training in the North Sea with her air group to hone the skills of the 780-strong ship’s company – plus nearly 600 men and women embarked with the F-35s and helicopters.
“I cannot emphasise enough how much hard work has been required over the last week to put us in the position we are now in with an ability to sail HMS Prince of Wales as part of my Carrier Strike Group,” said Commodore James Blackmore, Commander UK Carrier Strike Group, in overall charge of the ship, her air power and escorts. My admiration and thanks extend not only to the sailors onboard HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales, but also their families, and our contractor partners ashore and the wider team at HMNB Portsmouth that have worked so diligently over the past week. That myself and my battlestaff are now afloat in an aircraft carrier that was preparing for a substantial maintenance package just seven days ago is a remarkable achievement and a tribute to the professionalism, commitment, and good humour of all involved.”
Once the work-up is complete, the Prince of Wales task group will move to the High North and Exercise Nordic Response – the maritime element of Steadfast Defender – with the emphasis on protecting northern Norway, Sweden and Finland to defend the Nordic nations from ‘attack’.
Commodore Blackmore added: “We all now turn our eyes fully to Steadfast Defender as we prepare to join up with other NATO ships and embark the aircraft, including Lightning F-35B, Merlin and Wildcat helicopters, that make a carrier strike group such a potent and unique military capability. The UK has an unwavering commitment to NATO and collective deterrence and defence of the Euro-Atlantic region. There is no better demonstration of that than HMS Prince of Wales being at the heart of the upcoming NATO maritime exercises; the largest in over 40 years.” (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
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