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01 Feb 24. Kosovo: Enforcement of euro currency will drive domestic unrest risks in North Kosovo. As of 1 February, Kosovo will impose the euro (EUR) for cash payments in the predominantly ethnic-Serb North Kosovo, though an unspecified transition period will delay any immediate enforcement. Western officials have expressed concern about the impact on basic services (such as schools, financial systems and hospitals) which predominantly use the Serbian dinar (DIN). Businesses in Serb-majority regions consider the EUR a symbol of Pristina’s authority, complicating the currency switch. Symbolic changes by Pristina, such as the banning of Serbian-registered license plates, have previously led to an uptick in unrest and attack risks across North Kosovo. It is highly unlikely that ethnic-Serbs will accept the currency change; we assess that attempts to enforce the policy will elevate the risk of unrest. There is a realistic possibility of sporadic unrest in Leposavić, North Mitrovica, Zubin Potok and Zvečan districts (all North Kosovo) in the coming weeks. (Source: Sibylline)
31 Jan 24. Europeans set up corridor for rushing NATO troops eastward. Germany, the Netherlands and Poland plan to develop a military corridor that would make it easier to move troops and equipment between Europe’s North Sea ports and NATO’s eastern flank, at a time of growing hostility with Russia.
The countries signed a declaration of intent on Jan. 30 to develop the corridor, with plans to tackle infrastructure choke points, such as low bridges, and slash bureaucracy around permits for cross-border transport of ammunitions and other dangerous goods, the Dutch Ministry of Defence said in a statement. They’ll also study how military rail transports can be prioritized over routine civilian traffic.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two years ago made European countries realize they need to be prepared to move their military across the continent, something that previously hadn’t been high on the agenda, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said at the Military Mobility Symposium in Brussels on Jan. 30. She said the Netherlands, as a military transit country, must able to quickly move equipment from its ports to the hinterland.
“It’s about heavy material that has to pass through on bridges and roads, but it’s also about bureaucracy, it’s also about red tape,” Ollongren said. “We know one thing for sure: If the crisis comes, we are not going to have the time to do our paperwork, the paperwork has to be ready.”
The three governments will study how to standardize the conditions around military transports, including priority for military trains, fewer rules for military convoys and border crossings, as well as resting and refueling stops. The Netherlands coordinates the military mobility project of the EU Permanent Structured Cooperation, or PESCO.
Germany relied on military mobility as a frontline nation during the Cold War, and as the borders have moved east, Berlin needs to offer the same to allies, German State Secretary of Defense Siemtje Möller said in Brussels. Europe needs to demonstrate to Russia its ability to process military personnel and goods via its ports, roads and rail, she said.
European countries are playing catchup after decades of underinvestment following the end of the Cold War, said Sarah Tarry, head of the NATO Defence Policy and Capabilities Directorate. She said the agreement between Germany, Poland and the Netherlands “is absolutely a great model, and we need to do more like this to address the challenges.”
Europe’s three largest ports are Rotterdam in the Netherlands, Antwerp in Belgium and Hamburg in Germany, connected to inland destinations by waterways and an extensive network of roads and railway tracks.
“We have forces that are forward stationed in Europe, but then the vast majority of our forces are still in the United States,” Secretary of Defense Representative in Europe Rachel Ellehuus said at the mobility forum. “So we’d be relying on that throughput across the Atlantic and that ability to be quickly received in Europe.”
Europe has supported Ukraine with military aid in its defense against Russia, and defense budgets have increased across the EU in response to the Russian aggression. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy Chair of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, in November labeled Poland a “dangerous enemy.”
NATO last week announced plans to conduct Steadfast Defender, the largest exercise in Europe since the Cold War, with about 90,000 troops from all NATO allies as well as Sweden taking part. The exercise aims to test NATO defense plans against a near-pear adversary, and will result in troops transiting Dutch ports and German roads and railways.
Ollongren said governments should use the NATO exercise to explain how investment in infrastructure will increase resilience and improve deterrence. “It’s also going to show to our adversaries, especially the Russian Federation, that we are ready for this,” the minister said.
The EU earlier this month said it would fund 38 additional projects to facilitate transport of troops and equipment for €807m ($875m), raising its support for military mobility for the 2021-2027 period to a total of 95 projects and €1.7bn.
“The quicker we can move military forces from one part of Europe to another, via land, sea or air, the better our readiness to handle sudden challenges,” said Jiří Šedivý, chief executive of the European Defence Agency. “Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has increased the urgency of this indeed.” (Source: Defense News)
31 Jan 24. Hungary considers selling its outdated war stocks to Serbia. As Europe’s political outlier modernises its capabilities, Budapest weighs the option of selling its old, idle equipment to its strategic neighbour in the south. Hungary’s Defence Minister Kristof Szalay-Bobrovnivzky expressed interest in selling the country’s outdated military equipment to Serbia, their strategic partner and neighbour to the south, on 29 January 2024.
“It became possible to sell – up to a limit defined by law – military equipment and materials no longer used for national defence,” the Minister suggested.
The Central European republic is prompted to sell its old war materials as the Government is in the process of implementing a substantial modernisation of its armed forces.
“By selling these items we can also save on the storage of this equipment,” he pressed.
Some features of the modernisation programme involve strengthening the military’s capabilities through several important procurements.
These include the acquisition of 214 Lynx armoured vehicles, 44 Leopard 2A7+ main battle tanks (MBT), and 24 PzH 2000 howitzers, as well as KC-139 aircraft, H145M and H225M helicopters, and the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems.
Hungary is also seeking to promote and invest in its national defence industry through several partnership deals with foreign defence companies.
In mid-December 2023, the country agreed to join the German systems supplier Rheinmetall in the development of the Panther KF51 MBT. Rheinmetall is co-operating in the project with the state-owned Hungarian holding company N7, which also holds a 49% stake in the joint venture Rheinmetall Hungary.
Strengthening the Serbian armed forces
Szalay-Bobrovnivzky’s statement followed a visit from the Serbian Minister of Defence Miloš Vučević to Budapest on 26 January 2024. The two met to discuss the strong political and military ties between their two countries.
“The Serbian Armed Forces will soon become stronger, particularly our armoured and mechanised units and air defence,” Vučević pointed out.
“Hungarian military equipment is arriving in Serbia. Things that are acceptable and compatible with our existing systems and that will make the Serbian Armed Forces stronger and Serbia safer.”
“A new era of co-operation [in] the exchange of military technology and equipment.”
Serbian Minister of Defence Miloš Vučević.
Hungary’s arms trade proposition is built on a year-long foundation since the two countries established a bilateral defence co-operation agreement, which Vučević suggested opened “a new era of co-operation [in] the exchange of military technology and equipment.”
He added: “I would like to thank… the Hungarian Government for supporting Serbia on its European path. We share the same values. We believe in the same Europe.”
This is concerning given that the European Parliament, only a week earlier, rebuked the Hungarian Government for its “deliberate, continuous and systematic efforts… to undermine the EU’s founding values.” It has filed a motion for a resolution to strip Hungary’s voting right and freeze EU funds to the Union’s largest recipient.
What enduring systems does Hungary have to offer?
The leading intelligence consultancy GlobalData lists a range of different land and air systems and platforms in Hungary’s inventory in a report entitled Hungary Defence Market, 2023-2028.
Hungary operates a range of different vehicles. Its western acquisitions include the US’ M1151 armoured multirole vehicles and Sweden’s JAS 39C trainer aircraft, all of which are more than a decade old. While its eastern assets, much of its inventory, are even older Soviet-era systems such as its variety of the MiG24 attack helicopters and numerous armoured fighting vehicles.
Given Hungary’s German Panther procurement, one ageing Hungarian platform may be ripe for Serbian picking. It currently operates 30 units of the T-72 M1, an export version of a Soviet MBT. While it is unknown when exactly Hungary acquired the fleet, the tank was originally in production in 1973 until 1985. (Source: army-technology.com)
01 Feb 24. NATO partners remain on track to reach defence spending goals. NATO countries are on course to reach the goal of spending at least 2% of their GDP to defence spending to continue to ensure the alliance’s military readiness, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on 31 January during an event at the Heritage Foundation.
NATO defence ministers agreed to commit to the 2% minimum in 2006, but Stoltenberg acknowledged that even as of a few years ago only three countries had met that bar. Complaints from US officials prompted more countries to reach the level, he noted.
“Things are now changing,” he said, adding that, for this year, at least half of the countries will meet the 2% figure. Poland will spend more than 4%, he said.
“It’s not good enough, but it’s getting better,” he said. “Those allies not yet at 2% are coming very close and have a plan to get to 2%. It’s a totally different world than it was just a few years ago.”
He said, “We must invest in our defence. NATO remains central to this effort.” (Source: Janes)
30 Jan 24. UK and Greece bolster trade and security cooperation.
Minister for Europe Leo Docherty met Greek Deputy Foreign Minister Alexandra Papadopoulou in London to review progress on the Strategic Bilateral Framework.
Minister for Europe Leo Docherty reinforced the importance of deepening cooperation between the UK and Greece as he hosted Greek Deputy Foreign Minister Alexandra Papadopoulou in London today (30 January).
Since signing the Bilateral Framework agreement in 2021, the UK-Greece relationship has gone from strength to strength: trade between the two countries has grown to £10.7bn, our armed forces work closer together than ever before, and we have secured nine higher education agreements in the last year alone for our mutual benefit.
The Ministers agreed to build on these growing ties even further in the year ahead focusing on ongoing work to tackle shared challenges including disrupting organised migration routes, security cooperation, and our joint efforts to reach a peaceful resolution in the Middle East and war in Ukraine.
Minister for Europe Leo Docherty said: “The UK-Greece relationship is hugely important, from our ongoing work to promote security and stability as NATO allies, to our deep people-to-people links. Welcoming Deputy Foreign Minister Papadopoulou in London, we agreed to drive cooperation on shared challenges facing our two countries, from tackling illegal migration to enhancing European security and our joint efforts to reach a lasting peace in the Middle East and continuing support to Ukraine.”
The Minister for Europe also extended his thanks to the Greek authorities and people for their crucial role in getting British Nationals to safety during the wildfires in Greece last summer.
Earlier this month, Foreign Secretary David Cameron spoke with Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis where they discussed the situation in the Red Sea. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
29 Jan 24. Austin Underscores Enduring Strength of NATO Alliance. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III underscored the United States’ commitment to ensuring NATO’s enduring strength during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the Pentagon today.
The secretary said the alliance remains unwavering two years into Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and commended Stoltenberg for his leadership in keeping NATO united and resolute in facing the challenge.
“NATO is the most powerful and successful alliance in history,” Austin said. “And we’re going to keep it that way.”
The two leaders spoke as the bloc nears its final approval of Sweden as the newest member state after expanding the alliance to include Finland last year.
“NATO became even more capable last year when Finland joined, and I’m very pleased that the Turkish parliament voted last week for Sweden to join NATO, as well,” Austin said. “We’re looking forward to welcoming Sweden.”
Stoltenberg echoed Austin’s commitment to ensuring the alliance remains postured to defend and deter against threats to global security.
“NATO allies are providing unprecedented support to Ukraine, and its important that we continue to do so,” Stoltenberg said. “Our support is not charity; it’s an investment in our own security because the world will become more dangerous if President Putin wins in Ukraine.
“This is also closely watched in China … so that makes it even more important that we continue to support Ukraine,” he said, adding that he welcomed the United States’ continued commitment to supporting Ukraine.
In remarks ahead of their meeting, the two leaders previewed discussions about ways to further strengthen the alliance, as member countries prepare to meet at next month’s meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels. They’ll meet again at a summit marking the 75th anniversary of the alliance in Washington later this year.
Those discussions are aimed at ensuring deterrence across theaters and in multiple domains.
“I look forward to some frank discussions with you and our valued allies about what we need to strengthen our collective deterrence and defense,” Austin said.
Austin and Stoltenberg met as NATO carries out its largest exercise since the end of the Cold War.
Last week, member states kicked off Steadfast Defender 24, a six-month exercise that consists of a series of large-scale multinational maneuvers across a variety of geographical locations.
The exercise will feature more than 90,000 service members form 31 NATO member states and Sweden. It is designed to test the alliance’s ability to quickly deploy forces and carry out defense plans approved at last year’s Vilnius Summit in Lithuania.
About 26,000 U.S. personnel are scheduled to participate throughout the exercise. That includes approximately 17,000 soldiers, 7,000 sailors and Marines, 2,000 special operations forces, and 200 airmen.
Ahead of today’s talks, both leaders condemned attacks in Jordan over the weekend that resulted in the deaths of three U.S. service members and wounded dozens more.
“The president and I will not tolerate attacks on U.S. forces,” Austin said. “We will take all necessary actions to defend the U.S. and our troops.”
Stoltenberg extended his condolences for those killed and wounded in the attack.
“This demonstrates, once again, the risks service members are exposed to as they stand up for our values and take part in missions and operations to protect freedom,” he said. (Source: U.S. DoD)
29 Jan 24. Finland: Second round presidential vote will almost certainly result in foreign policy continuity. Former prime minister Alexander Stubb won the first round of Finland’s presidential election on 28 January with 27.2% of the votes. In the second round of voting on 11 February he will face former foreign minister Pekka Haavisto who came second place with 25.8% of the vote. The winner will succeed President Sauli Niinistö who has served in office since 2018 and helped Finland join NATO in 2023. The Finnish president leads the country’s foreign policy on non-EU issues, including Russia policy and representation at NATO meetings. The frontrunner, Stubb, is an ardent transatlanticist, while Haavisto is better known for his diplomatic career. Both are strong supporters of NATO and will broadly continue Finland’s pro-Ukraine foreign policy. An immediate priority for the president (and government) will be whether to re-open the country’s border checkpoints with Russia on 11 February. An uptick in pro-Russian cyber operations around the time of the vote is a realistic possibility. (Source: Sibylline)
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