Sponsored by Bertin Exensor
www.exensor.com
————————————————————————-
Military And Security Developments
Dec 22.
• BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
• DONETSK: Russian forces have made confirmed minor advances to the west and south-west of Donetsk city in recent days. Geolocated footage posted on 21 December indicates that Russian forces advanced south of Novomykhailivka, located 6 miles (10km) south-west of Donetsk City. A senior Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) official claimed that Ukrainian forces abandoned several defensive positions near the settlement, though we cannot confirm this. Similarly, geolocated footage from 18 December indicates Russian forces marginally advanced north of Pervomaiske, located 6 miles (10km) south-west of Avdiivka. Russian forces will continue efforts to capture Avdiivka in the coming weeks, though poor weather conditions will severely hamper these efforts.
• KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
• SOUTHERN: Russian sources continued to claim on 21 December that their forces are counter-attacking and making advances along the southern Zaporizhzhia front. Russian forces are currently attacking west and south of Robotyne as well as around Verbove, six miles (10km) east of Robotyne. However, we cannot confirm the extent of these Russian advances at present.
• STRIKES: Earlier on 22 December, Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat stated that Russia has fired 7,400 missiles at Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Ihnat stated that approximately 1,600 of these missiles, including S-300, S-400, Kh-22 and Iskandr ballistic missiles, had been intercepted. However, it is important to note that the success rate of Russian missile strikes was much higher during the first six months of the war, and that the introduction of advanced Western air defence systems, such as the US Patriot and German Gepard systems, has dramatically increased Ukrainian interception rates. The ongoing provision of Western military aid will be critical in maintaining the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defences in 2024.
• STRIKES: Overnight on 21-22 December, Russian forces fired 28 Shahed 131/136 drones at Ukrainian targets. The Ukrainian Air Force stated that it intercepted 24 of the drones in Khmelnytskyi, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Rivne and Zhytomyr oblasts, reflecting a slightly reduced interception rate than the average in recent weeks. In line with the Air Force’s usual policy, no information was given on the four drones which were not intercepted. However, debris from an intercepted drone reportedly damaged three houses in Kyiv oblast.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• ASSASSINATIONS: On 22 December, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, approved the assassination of Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. The plan to assassinate Prigozhin had reportedly been developed for two months prior to the fatal plane crash in late August. Patrushev had allegedly began to warn Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom he is a close ally, of Prigozhin during the summer of 2022. However, the warnings were reportedly ignored while the Wagner Group made progress on the battlefield.
• ASSASSINATIONS: The WSJ alleged that during the mercenary force’s mutiny on 23-24 June, Patrushev had asked officers sympathetic to Prigozhin to try to contact him and that he had looked for mediators to end the uprising. Putin was reportedly shown plans to dispose of Prigozhin in August and did not object. Western intelligence officials claimed that a small bomb was placed under the wing of Prigozhin’s plane as he awaited an inspection on the aircraft at an airport in Moscow.
• ASSASSINATIONS: The Kremlin has dismissed the WSJ’s report, the first of which to implicate Patrushev as the architect of the plan to oust Prigozhin; its veracity cannot be confirmed. While it is almost certain that Prigozhin was assassinated, the report indicates that those close to Putin were able to identify the threat that Prigozhin posed to the Kremlin ahead of the Wagner Group mutiny and respond to eliminate such risks to government stability following the uprising, though it is notable that those warnings were allegedly ignored by the Kremlin.
• ECONOMY: Ukraine’s finance ministry announced on 21 December that Ukraine has agreed with creditors from the G7 and the Paris Club to extend debt restructuring to 2027. Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said the agreement on the revision of debt obligations allows Kyiv to reduce the burden on the budget and save foreign currency liquidity to ensure social spending. The deferment will extend until the end of March 2027, which corresponds to the end of the current IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme.
• ECONOMY: On 21 December, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the EU has sent the last tranche of EUR 1.5 bn (USD 1.6 bn) in macro-financial assistance for Ukraine. The instalment is part of a support package for 2023 worth EUR 18bn (USD 19.6bn). The assistance aims to help Ukraine in continuing to pay wages and pensions as well as keep essential public services running, including hospitals and schools. As such, the latest tranche will likely modestly alleviate socio-economic health and macro-economic instability risks in the short term. However, the bloc will highly likely remain focused on unlocking EUR 50 bn (USD 54.8 bn) worth of long-term macro-economic assistance to Ukraine ahead of the key European Council summit on 1 February 2024.
• AID: On 22 December, the Japanese government is set meet to discuss plans to alter its defence export rules, which would highly likely indirectly support Ukraine. Under the current Three Principles on Arms Exports, Japan is prohibited from exporting lethal military equipment to countries party to a conflict. However, the revised plan looks to allow Japan to re-export Patriot air defence systems to the US, and 155mm artillery ammunition to the UK, which in turn will highly likely allow Washington DC and London to transfer these assets to Ukraine. Russian scope for retaliation remains limited and is highly unlikely to represent any significant escalation. The Foreign Ministry officially objected to Japanese military drills on Hokkaido Island on 21 December, shortly after the proposed export revision plan became public; Russia’s response is likely to remain rhetorical.
FORECAST
APPROPRIATIONS: On 21 December, reports emerged that US President Joe Biden’s administration is quietly signalling new support for confiscating more than USD 300 bn in Russian central bank assets in Western countries. According to people familiar with the matter, the administration has started urgent discussions with allies about using the funds to aid Ukraine’s war effort. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had previously insisted that seizing the funds was not legally permissible in the US without congressional action. However, the administration, in co-ordination with G7 member states, has started reviewing whether it can use its existing powers or if it should seek action from Congress.
The Biden administration is reportedly pressing Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the UK to produce a strategy by 24 February to mark the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion. Biden has not yet signed off on the strategy and many of the details of the plan remain under deliberation. People involved in the matter are also discussing whether the money would only be used for reconstruction and other means to help Ukraine’s economy, or whether the funds could be spent on military assistance. If the funds were utilised for the latter purpose, this could realistically resolve spending disputes over providing Kyiv further military aid, though earlier statements from Western officials indicated a preference to use appropriated funds for reconstruction in Ukraine. In either case, the risk of retaliatory seizures of Western assets in Russia and legal action will increase in the coming months if the plan is approved for either purpose.
*Ongoing cyber espionage phishing operations elevate security risks to organisations. On 21 December, the security firm Deep Instinct reported that the threat group ‘UAC-0099’ is targeting Ukrainian users by exploiting a software vulnerability to deliver malware. The group targets Ukrainian employees of companies outside of Ukraine via a phishing email purporting to be from the Lviv City Court to deploy the ‘LONEPAGE’ malware. UAC-0099 also uses malicious ZIP files that exploit a patched WinRAR software vulnerability (CVE-2023-38831) to propagate the malware, underscoring the necessity for organisations to have robust patch management programmes to avoid exploitation from existing bugs. Ukraine’s Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-UA) previously reported on UAC-0099 in June 2023 following the group’s targeting of state organisations and media entities. This report comes as the CERT-UA has warned Ukrainian users of new phishing operations by another actor pretending to be from Kyivstar to spread a remote access trojan. The warning highlights the heightened security risk users and firms operating in Ukraine currently face, which will likely endure in the medium-to-long term.
Dec 21.
• BAKHMUT: Russian sources continue to report further advances north-west of Bakhmut, though we cannot confirm the extent of these alleged gains. Claims from 20 December indicate that Russian forces advanced along a front around 530m wide and 170m deep west of Khromove, which lies immediately west of Bakhmut. Similarly, other Russian sources claimed on 20-21 December that their forces made advances north of Klishchiivka, located around six miles (10km) south-west of Bakhmut. These claims also remain unconfirmed.
• DONETSK: On 20 December, Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun stated that in the last two months of fighting in Donetsk oblast, Russia has lost nearly 25,000 troops, 80% of whom were lost in fighting near Avdiivka. While we cannot confirm this claim, Russia has sustained exceptionally high casualties and equipment losses in its push to capture Avdiivka while advancing roughly 1.5 miles (2.5km), according to Shtupun. There is currently no indication that the Russian military leadership will abandon this strategy. Over the past 24 hours, there were no notable confirmed advances by either Russian or Ukrainian forces.
• KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
• SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
• STRIKES: Overnight on 20-21 December, Russian forces launched 35 Shahed 131/136 drones at Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv Poltava, Sumy, Vinnytsia and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Ukrainian air defences reportedly intercepted 34 drones. In Mykolaiv, the debris of a downed drone damaged a warehouse owned by an agricultural company.
• STRIKES: On 21 December, the online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda, citing unnamed defence industry sources, claimed that Ukraine will likely be able to produce around 1 m first-person view (FPV) drones in 2024. The outlet claimed that a facility capable of producing around 500,000 such drones is already in operation in Ukraine, and that several facilities with the same capacity are currently under construction. While we cannot confirm Ukraine’s drone production rate, this number, if accurate, means that the production of 1 m units in 2024 is likely achievable, if still highly ambitious. As such, an expansion of Ukraine’s drone production would bolster the country’s military’s offensive capabilities in the medium term, though artillery shortages will likely remain the key limiting factor in Ukrainian defensive and offensive operations.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• NEGOTIATIONS: On 20 December, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that the topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine is currently irrelevant, re-affirming that such talks remain highly unlikely in the near term. Peskov also criticised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ‘peace formula’, which outlines Kyiv’s conditions for peace. Peskov claimed that the plan seeks to establish peace without Russia’s participation, and is therefore flawed. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on 19 December that Russia would be prepared to enter discussions with Europe, Ukraine and the US regarding the war, but that it would defend its national interests. Ultimately, further statements in the coming months from Russian officials expressing Moscow’s willingness to enter negotiations are unlikely to be made in good faith; the recent expansionist rhetoric we have previously reported on indicates that Moscow has no intention of negotiating an end to the war at present.
• SANCTIONS: On 20 December, the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced new measures to tighten the enforcement of the price cap on shipping Russian oil. OFAC sanctioned a Russian government-owned ship manager and several obscure oil traders. The Treasury Department announced that the price cap coalition will soon require Western maritime service providers to obtain declarations stating that any Russian oil has been sold under the USD 60 per barrel cap each time it is lifted or loaded. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) stated on 5 December that 48% of Russian oil shipments were carried on tankers owned or insured in G7 and EU countries in October. As such, further measures to increase compliance with the price cap are likely in the coming months in an effort to lower Moscow’s ability to profit from its oil revenues.
• APPROPRIATIONS: Earlier on 21 December, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov reiterated that Moscow will respond ‘symmetrically’ to the seizure of its assets in Europe. Siluanov stated that income from the use of Western assets frozen in Russia is ‘substantial’, claiming that such assets can be utilised the same way if ‘unfriendly’ countries appropriate Russian assets abroad. On 12 December, the European Commission (EC) proposed using the proceeds of Russian assets frozen within the EU for aiding the reconstruction of Ukraine. Should the EU successfully move to use these assets, Russia will likely respond in kind. This will increase the risk of appropriations of Western firms still operating in Russia.
FORECAST
MOBILISATION: Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov stated on 21 December that Ukraine will mobilise Ukrainians living abroad next year and that those who do not appear at recruitment offices will face penalties. Umerov noted that Ukrainian men living abroad who are fit for military service would first be ‘invited’ to report to recruitment offices, but stressed that there would be unspecified repercussions if an individual did not show up voluntarily. On 19 December, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine’s military wants to mobilise up to an additional 500,000 people. It is currently unclear how Ukraine intends to recruit Ukrainians residing abroad or when such measures would enter into force. On 24 November, the BBC’s Ukrainian-language service reported that around 650,000 men of draft age have left Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. As such, the Ukrainian authorities are likely attempting to engage with military-aged men who have fled the country to bolster recruitment efforts. However, there is a realistic possibility that Ukrainian men who were residing abroad prior to the full-scale invasion will possibly also be affected by any such order in the coming months.
Earlier on 21 December, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service (DPSU), Andriy Demchenko, stated that the number of border crossings made by male Ukrainian citizens between the ages of 18 and 60 is not increasing. Notably, he stated that during the first weeks of December, more Ukrainian men within this age range entered Ukraine than left (according to data). However, a Ukrainian border control official, Ihor Matviychuk, stated on 20 December that around 6,000 men of draft age leave the country each day via the Western border. Matviychuk revealed that the number of men who marry mothers with multiple children and utilise other loopholes to leave the country has increased recently. Although the Ukrainian authorities will almost certainly continue to increase their efforts to crack down on those evading military service, it remains unlikely that they will be able to close all loopholes completely. Nevertheless, amid these increasing efforts, Ukrainian nationals living and working abroad will face an elevated risk of being mobilised in 2024.
Dec 20.
• BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
• DONETSK: On 20 December, a Ukrainian special forces officer reported that Russian forces do not pose an immediate threat to Avdiivka’s supply routes. Ukrainian officials previously noted that one of the goals of the Russian assaults is to disrupt the logistics corridor supplying Avdiivka. He also drew attention to Ukraine’s heavy use of first-person view (FPV) drones to strike Russian positions. Meanwhile, geolocated footage from 19 December shows that while Russian forces marginally advanced to the south-west of Avdiivka, they still have a significant task ahead of them if they intend to close the cauldron around Avdiivka, which remains among the heaviest defended sections of the frontline.
• KHERSON: The Ukrainian General Staff reported earlier on 20 December that Russian forces have assaulted Ukrainian positions on the left bank of the Dnieper River eight times over the last 24 hours, but that all assaults were repelled. Ukrainian forces maintain a beachhead on the left (east) bank of the river. However, neither side has been able to alter the military balance significantly over the last two months, despite the heavy fighting. The General Staff nevertheless also reported that ongoing ammunition shortages have forced Russian forces to use poor-quality North Korean artillery and mortar shells; these have reportedly resulted in accidents and friendly fire incidents for the Dnepr Grouping of Forces fighting on this axis.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 19 December, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that as a result of recent fortification efforts, the strongest defences in the country are located in north-eastern Kharkiv oblast. Zelensky stated that the authorities aim to establish a similar level of fortification across other frontline regions. Meanwhile, geolocated footage from 18 December shows that Russian forces achieved marginal gains north of Synkivka, a settlement located around five miles (8km) north-east of Kupiansk. The ostensible level of Ukrainian defences in this region will ultimately limit the scope for major Russian advances in early 2024, though incremental advances are likely to continue amid Russia’s ongoing grinding winter offensive.
• SOUTHERN: Increasing numbers of Russian sources are claiming that Ukrainian forces are now transitioning to the defensive along the Zaporizhzhia frontline, with Russian counter-attacks continuing at various points. Russian claims from earlier on 20 December indicate that their forces have advanced ‘several hundred metres’ near Verbove, located around six miles (10km) east of Robotyne. While Ukrainian forces have likely withdrawn to more defensible positions near Robotyne, the amount of ground retaken by Russian forces remains small.
• STRIKES: Overnight on 19-20 December, Russia launched 19 Shahed 131/136 drones against Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv and Odesa oblasts. Ukrainian air defences intercepted 18 drones. Russia also launched two S-300 missiles against Kharkiv. The local authorities reported that a transport facility and a residential building were damaged in Kharkiv.
• STRIKES: On 19 December, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine will receive an unspecified number of US-made Patriot air defence systems this winter. On 14 December, Germany announced the delivery of a Patriot system and Patriot missiles (the US and Germany provided the first Patriot systems in the spring). Such systems have proven to be effective in countering Russian ballistic missiles and have dramatically improved the density and effectiveness of air defences around the capital Kyiv, in particular. The provision will further reinforce Ukraine’s air defences over the winter, though gaps remain in Ukraine’s air defence networks away from the frontlines and outside the capital.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• AID: On 19 December, US Senate leaders confirmed that the upper house will not vote on a package to provide USD61bn in funding to Ukraine before the end of 2023. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and Republican Leader Mitch McConnell announced in a joint statement that negotiations ‘are making encouraging progress […] but challenging issues remain’. An agreement will possibly be delayed until the end of January 2024 or possibly early February 2024, when existing funding deadlines run out. Meanwhile, the Pentagon (US) has confirmed that funding for Ukraine will dry up on 30 December, resulting in a gap that will mean further delays for Ukrainian military aid.
• AIRPORTS: On 19 December, Boryspil International Airport (KBP) confirmed that a Boeing 777-300 took off from the facility as part of a series of ongoing safety and security tests during martial law. No passengers or cargo were aboard the test flight, and it reportedly proceeded smoothly according to all aviation safety standards. On 1 December, the head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, stated that KBP, Ukraine’s busiest airport before the full-scale invasion, could resume civilian flights given that the Ukrainian military is now able to ‘ensure the safety of the facility’.
• AIRPORTS: The Ukrainian government has been pushing for the resumption of flights from certain airports across Ukraine in a bid to expedite reconstruction and travel to and from Europe. These include the relatively less-vulnerable Lviv International Airport (LWO) and Uzhhorod International Airport (UDJ), which are located in the west of the country. However, Yermak has provided no timeline for a possible reopening of Ukrainian airports. Despite increased air defences around the capital, which include Patriot systems, Ukraine is an active war zone. This means that its airspace will remain at extreme risk for the foreseeable future. Even if the provision of F-16 fighter jets enables Ukraine to wrestle greater control of its own airspace, it remains unlikely that commercial carriers will operate therein.
FORECAST
STRATEGY: On 19 December, President Volodymyr Zelensky held his end-of-year press conference, wherein he stated that Ukraine’s strategic objective of reclaiming all occupied territories has not and cannot change. Zelensky stated that Ukraine’s strategy cannot be changed ‘according to our constitution’, as all occupied regions are Ukrainian territory. However, he did acknowledge that tactics will possibly be adjusted due to this year’s ‘results’. He did not provide further details around lessons learned from the effective failure of the 2023 counter-offensive. Nevertheless, he stated that Russia had failed to achieve its own goals this year; this is likely a reference to the fact that Russian forces have not taken the administrative borders of the regions Moscow annexed in 2022.
Zelensky notably highlighted the growing economic and financial difficulties which will likely influence Ukraine’s strategy and its ability to wage war in 2024. The president stated that the General Staff has proposed mobilising a further 450,000-500,000 personnel for the war effort. Zelensky acknowledged that his government plans to reduce government expenditure in a bid to find the funds required to support fresh mobilisation in 2024. However, he stated that Kyiv has not yet committed to the plan, and that further discussions are needed before an agreement can be reached. Given that significant portions of Ukraine’s budget remain contingent upon various Western aid packages, serious delays to such funding will inevitably undermine not only Ukraine’s macroeconomic stability, but also its plans for military spending.
Ultimately, Ukraine will almost certainly need to ramp up mobilisation drives if it hopes to maintain the war effort (Zelensky hinted that an additional 500,000 recruits would make the Ukrainian armed forces one m strong). Zelensky also ruled out the mobilisation of women, though he did state that reducing the mobilisation age for men to 25 is being considered, which we assess remains likely in 2024. The president also stated that Ukraine plans to ramp up arms production next year, to include the production of one m drones.
Earlier this year, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported that over 200 Ukrainian companies are involved in developing drones, with production growing a hundredfold in a year. Ukraine is also ramping up efforts to mass produce other critical war materials, mainly to include artillery ammunition. Yet despite such efforts, Kyiv will remain disproportionately reliant upon Western support in these areas for the foreseeable future. Drones, meanwhile, represent an area where Ukraine retains significantly more potential for self-sufficiency and domestic resiliency in 2024.
Dec 19.
• BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
• DONETSK: Earlier on 19 December, Vitaliy Barabash, the head of the Ukrainian Avdiivka military administration, stated that Russian tactics in the Avdiivka sector have shifted from ‘meat-grinding’ assaults. According to Barabash, while Russian assaults have decreased, they have also become more effective due to the heavy use of equipment and artillery. Meanwhile, also on 19 December, a prominent Russian milblogger reported that Ukrainian forces are counter-attacking in the southern outskirts of Avdiivka. Ukrainian assaults currently involve the heavy use of first-person view (FPV) drones and artillery. According to the milblogger, Ukraine has transferred units from Zaporizhzhia oblast to the Avdiivka sector; this likely reflects the growing pressure facing Ukrainian forces around Avdiivka. Additionally, geolocated footage from 18 December indicates that Russian forces made limited advances along the southern outskirts of Novomykhailivka, located around six miles (10km) south-west of Donetsk City.
• KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 19 December, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (GUR) reported an outbreak of a ‘mouse fever’ virus among Russian positions in the Kupiansk sector. According to the GUR’s statement, mouse fever is transmitted to humans via rodents; recent reports indicate that there is a widespread rodent infestation throughout Russian positions across the frontline. The GUR claimed that the virus has significantly reduced the combat capability of Russian personnel. Frustration is reportedly growing among Russian soldiers, especially because Russian commanders have allegedly not provided adequate cold-weather clothes or proper medical services (as was the case last winter). Such issues will continue to reduce Russian offensive capabilities in this and other sectors.
• SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
• STRIKES: Overnight on 18-19 December, Ukrainian air defences reportedly intercepted two Shahed 136/131 drones launched by Russia. The drones reportedly targeted Khmelnytskyi oblast. Notably, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s air force, Yuriy Ihnat, assessed on 18 December that Russian forces have enough drones to launch daily strikes against Ukrainian targets from multiple different directions. The overall tempo of Russian strikes has remained high over the last week; the deployment of Kinzhal ballistic missiles (see below) underscores the growing range of platforms and capabilities Russian forces are utilising in their bid to breach Ukrainian air defences.
• STRIKES: On 19 December, the UK’s Defence Intelligence (DI) reported that Russia highly likely launched Kh-47M2 hypersonic Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles on 14 December for the first time since August. The Kinzhal ballistic missile, also known by its NATO designation AS-24 KILLJOY, is one of six ‘super weapons’ revealed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2018. These missiles have been primarily reserved to strike high-value targets in Ukraine. These include the airbase at Starokostyantyniv (Khmelnystskyi oblast), which was targeted in the most recent attack (though the extent of damage remains unclear; it is likely that the missile/missiles missed the airbase). As such, DI reported that the missile has enjoyed mixed results, with many strikes missing their intended targets despite penetrating Ukrainian air defences; Ukraine has also reportedly succeeded in intercepting Kinzhal missiles.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• POLLING: On 18 December, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) released a poll showing that public trust in the government has declined over the past year. Trust in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has reportedly dropped from 84% in December 2022 to 62%, with trust in the government having decreased by 26% over the same period. In contrast, trust in Ukraine’s armed forces remains very high (96%). Furthermore, 88% of polled Ukrainians trust the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. The poll was published amid reported growing tensions between Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi. Ultimately, failure to achieve a breakthrough on the battlefield and to secure Western funding will likely further undermine public trust in the government in 2024, sustaining the domestic political pressure facing the Zelensky administration.
• MARITIME: The Telegraph reported on 18 December that the UK is set to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Ukraine to ‘keep Kyiv in the fight’ in the Black Sea. This comes as part of a ten-year bilateral security pact. The agreement is likely to be signed ‘in the coming weeks’; it would represent the UK’s latest commitment to long-term support for Ukraine, particularly in the maritime sphere, which the UK has long supported. This support was reflected in a June 2021 agreement committing British industry to support the modernisation and expansion of Ukrainian naval assets, as well as the establishment of new naval bases in the Black Sea.
• MARITIME: Despite the effective failure of the autumn counter-offensive to achieve significant objectives on land, Ukraine’s maritime counter-offensive has, by contrast, made significant progress in the last six months. Despite not operating a surface fleet, Ukraine has effectively forced Russia’s Black Sea Fleet into a defensive posture. Ukraine has been making extensive use of novel maritime capabilities (including offensive maritime drones) to deprive the Russian fleet of freedom of movement. Ukrainian operations have seriously undermined the Black Sea Fleet’s coercive attempts to besiege Ukraine’s coast, as illustrated by the relative success of the ‘grain corridor’ despite the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) deal this summer. As such, further efforts by Ukraine’s Western partners to support Kyiv’s maritime operations will continue to play an important role in containing Russian capabilities in the Black Sea (capabilities which will continue to pose a significant threat to commercial operations in the region).
• CORRUPTION: On 18 December, Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov unveiled the State Logistics Operator (DOT), a new procurement agency for Ukraine’s military forces. DOT will be responsible for non-military purchases, such as clothes and food. Umerov presented this agency as part of ‘a new procurement architecture in Ukraine’s defence sector’ that aligns with international and NATO standards. The move follows the revelation of two corruption scandals within the country’s defence procurement agency in August. Although corruption will highly likely remain widespread within state structures, the creation of the new procurement agency underscores Kyiv’s efforts to ensure transparency within the MoD and to rebuild trust.
• BORDERS: On 18 December, Polish truckers resumed their border blockade at the Dorohusk-Yahodyn crossing between Poland and Ukraine. Additionally, there are reports of a new blockade at Dorohusk, which Polish farmers have also joined (customs data indicate a 68-hour wait at the crossing). Truckers began blocking multiple crossings on 6 November to protest against the EU’s liberalisation of transit rules for Ukrainian truck drivers. The blockade at Dorohusk-Yahodyn was briefly lifted last week before being reinstated after a court overturned a Polish mayor’s attempt to disband the protests. Despite the most recent blockades, hundreds of trucks have reportedly passed through three crossing points, according to Ukraine’s Ministry for Communities and Infrastructure. The Dorohusk-Yahodyn border crossing remains the busiest transit point, through which 40% of all overhaul traffic passes between Poland and Ukraine. Uncertainty regarding overland transit via the Poland-Ukraine border will continue to drive supply chain pressures and operational risks.
FORECAST
AID: On 18 December, the commander of Ukraine’s Tavriisk group of forces, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, stated that artillery shortages and shortfalls in foreign military assistance are forcing Ukraine to scale back some operations. Tarnavskyi stated that Ukrainian forces are currently suffering from shortages of Soviet 122mm and 152mm artillery ammunition across the entire frontline. Despite Kyiv’s increasing use of Western 155mm guns, limited production and transfers of both Soviet- and NATO-standard shells are likely to continue to undermine Ukrainian operations. Specifically, continued shortages will limit the scope for major counter-offensive operations in 2024.
Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Ivan Gavrylyuk also warned on 18 December that such shortages will continue, and that efforts are underway to focus on the domestic production of drones to offset artillery shortages. Despite plans to ramp up domestic production of 155mm ammunition in 2024, Ukraine will remain reliant on Western transfers for the foreseeable future, even as US and European stocks run low. The EU has pledged to provide Ukraine with around one m 155mm shells by March 2024. However, only around 480,000 have been delivered (or are in the pipeline). The EU is likely to miss its target without a major production expansion.
Currently, Ukraine is firing more shells than it can sustainably procure. CNN recently cited US and Ukrainian official estimates that Russia is firing shells at five to seven times the ratio of Ukraine. While Ukraine has always fired fewer shells than Russia, albeit at a disproportionately more accurate rate, this is a war of attrition; Russia’s domestic production and procurement of artillery supplies is outstripping Ukrainian and Western production levels. Without serious increases in Western and domestic Ukrainian military-industrial production in 2024, we assess that these shortages will become all the more acute.
Such shortages are brought into sharper focus given the ongoing Western budgetary disputes which threaten to delay military supplies to Ukraine even further. On 18 December, the Pentagon (US) stated that it will run out of money for new military aid packages for Ukraine on 30 December, unless Congress passes an additional funding bill. This remains unlikely given the Republican opposition to joint funding for Ukraine and Israel without major concessions on border security. Meanwhile, European Council President Charles Michel confirmed on 18 December that EU leaders will hold a special summit on 1 February 2024 to discuss EUR 50 bn (USD 54.8 bn) in macroeconomic finance assistance for Ukraine. This comes after Hungary vetoed the funds on 14 December (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 15 December 2023). These budgetary delays, together with lagging Western military-industrial production and ongoing delays to deliveries, will continue to undermine Ukrainian military operations; if they continue, they will significantly constrain Ukraine’s counter-offensives options in 2024.
Dec 18.
• BAKHMUT: Russian forces have continued to make slow but steady advances around Bakhmut in recent days, with geolocated footage from 16-17 December confirming progress west of Khromove in particular. Russian forces have been prioritising operations around the village, directly west of Bakhmut, and have also made confirmed progress north of Klishchiivka, located around six miles (10km) south-west of Bakhmut. Russian milbloggers have also claimed that between 14-15 December, their forces established a foothold in Bohdanivka, located around four miles (6km) west of Bakhmut. However, this remains unconfirmed.
• BELGOROD: Ukrainian and Russian officials confirmed on 17 December that fighting was taking place inside the Russian border near the village of Terebreno (Belgorod oblast). It currently remains unclear what Ukrainian units crossed the border from Sumy oblast to Terebreno, located two miles (3km) east of the border. However, this attack likely represents a limited raid or reconnaissance operation. Ukrainian forces have not attacked across the border in many months, but as Russian forces transition from the strategic defensive to offensive this winter, Ukrainian forces are likely to use such methods to draw off Russian forces as they have done previously in 2023.
• DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 17 December shows that Russian forces made limited progress near Stepove, nearly two miles (3km) north of Avdiivka. Additional footage from 15 December shows Russian advances in the western outskirts of the industrial zone south-east of Avdiivka. Meanwhile, geolocated footage posted on 17 December shows that Ukrainian forces advanced east of Nevelske, directly west of Donetsk.
• DONETSK: On 18 December, a prominent Russian miliblogger claimed that Russian troops are completing sweeping operations in the western outskirts of Marinka (Donetsk oblast). According to him, Ukrainian forces only control 1% of the city’s territory and continue to be dislodged from residential buildings. Recently, Ukrainian military officials said that such claims are false and are typically part of Russia’s dis-information efforts.
• KHERSON: On 16 December, the New York Times published a series of interviews with Ukrainian marines operating on the left (east) bank of the Dnieper River (Kherson oblast), who are reporting extremely difficult operating conditions. Ukrainian forces, led by naval infantry, have been operating on the left bank of the river for two months, but have struggled to expand small beachheads. Candid interviews with soldiers on the ground underscore how difficult these operations are, with some claiming that their forces are engaging in ‘futile’ attacks given that in some places they have nowhere to dig in, and have been successfully repulsed by the defending Russians before they reach the bank of the river.
• KHERSON: While such conditions are inevitable during amphibious riverine warfare, some interviewees have described the ongoing operations as a ‘suicide mission’ and raised concerns over taking high casualties. Given the effective failure of the southern counter-offensive in Zaporizhzhia oblast, the cross-river raids were likely seen as an opportunity for Ukrainian forces to regain momentum. However, current reporting indicates that they are now bogged down and unlikely to achieve a sizeable breakthrough on this axis in the short term.
• KHERSON: However, a Ukrainian officer operating on the Kherson frontline reported that Russian artillery has been heavily suppressed along the Dnieper River. By operating at various points on the left bank, Russian 152mm tube artillery systems have likely been pulled back, limiting their ability to attack Ukrainian positions on the right (west) bank of the river. While this is will likely aid Ukrainian logistics and protect civilian areas, Russian forces are steadily increasing the number and capability of forces defending the left bank, though it is clear that Russia’s Dnepr Grouping of Forces are suffering from continued morale, logistics, communication and command problems. Nevertheless, on 18 December, Ukraine’s National Resistance Centre reported that the number of Russian special forces and wider troops have increased in Kherson oblast, likely in a bid to support not only defensive operations at the front but also mitigate partisan activity and Ukrainian drone attacks against rear areas.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Geolocated footage posted on 17 December indicates that Ukrainian troops advanced near Synkivka, a settlement located (8km) north-east of Kupiansk. Synkivka has been the scene of intense fighting, as Russian forces are seeking to capture this settlement in a bid to later carry out attacks against Kupiansk. A prominent Russian milblogger said that Ukrainian artillery continues to inflict damage to Russian positions and that Ukraine has redeployed reserves near Ivanivka, located around 12 miles (20km) to the south-east of Kupiansk.
• SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
• STRIKES: On 16 December, Russia launched 31 Shahed-136/131 drones, of which Ukrainian air defences reportedly intercepted 30. Air defences were activated in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Sumy, Vinnytsia and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Early on 17 December, Russian forces launched one Iskander-K cruise missile, one Kh-59 missile and 20 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted 20 drones and one Kh-59, while the Iskander-K cruise missile did not reach its target, according to Ukrainian military authorities. The projectiles were destroyed over Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Odesa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Ukrainian military authorities said on December 17 that Russia targeted Kherson City and Starokostiantyniv airfield in Khmelnytskyi oblast. Earlier on 18 December, Ukraine destroyed the five drones launched by Russia targeting Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Mykolaiv and Vinnytsia regions.
• STRIKES: Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that on 17 December Ukraine launched a massive strike, including 35 drone attacks targeting Lipetsk, Rostov and Volgograd regions. The Russian MoD said that all projectiles were shot down. A Russian Telegram channel critical of the Kremlin and independent media Astra Press said that drones targeted a Russian military air base in the town of Morozovsk (Rostov) housing Russia’s 559th Bomber Aviation Regiment. Ukraine has, over the past months, proven to be capable of carrying out strikes deep into Russian territory against priority military targets, including military airbases and aviation assets. Such attacks have likely forced Moscow to disperse its aviation capabilities, likely increasing logistical obstacles.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• BORDERS: On 17 December, the Polish farmers association, United Village, announced it will take part in the blockade of the Polish-Ukrainian border at the Yahodyn-Dorohusk from 18 December. Polish farmers have said that despite the import ban of Ukrainian grain, authorities have not taken enough measures to protect Polish farmers, with the market still affected. The influx of cheap Ukrainian grain in Europe has raised bilateral tensions, with several neighbouring countries imposing unilateral bans on domestic sales of Ukrainian grain. The participation of Polish farmers in the blockade will further complicate the efforts of recently elected Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to unblock them. The blockade of the border crossings will therefore sustain supply chain pressures in the coming weeks.
• ECONOMY: Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned Western allies that delays in allocating extra funding would undermine Ukraine’s economic recovery. This was reported by the Financial Times on 17 December. Internal disputes have prevented the EU and the US from unlocking bns of dollars and euros worth of financial assistance for Ukraine. Hungary continues to block the delivery of EUR 50 bn worth of EU aid, while in the US, Republican lawmakers obstruct the delivery of USD 61.4 bn financial aid package. Georgieva said that Kyiv can manage short-term funding delays, as are currently taking place in Washington DC given budgetary disputes between Democrats and Republicans. However, should the West fail to deliver financial aid by February 2023, Kyiv will likely need to borrow money from its central bank, increasing inflationary and financial instability risks.
FORECAST
STRATEGY: On 17 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave an interview wherein he effectively threatened Finland and wider NATO, despite claiming Moscow has no need or desire to fight the alliance. Putin stated that NATO has created an artificial conflict with Russia given the accession of Finland to the alliance, stating that ‘there will be problems’ for Finland as a result. While he did not specify what said ‘problems’ will entail, besides the establishment of a new military district adjacent to Finland, Putin’s words effectively echo wider Russian threats designed to deter further NATO expansion and punish recently admitted members.
The comments come after US President Joe Biden warned that Russia would attack NATO countries in the future if it won in Ukraine. Putin claimed that Russia has no reason or interest in fighting NATO ‘directly’, though we assess that Moscow’s ambitions do not end with Ukraine. While Russia does not currently retain the military capability to fight NATO, or any other military operation outside of Ukraine, Moscow is currently expanding its defence-industrial base and reconstituting its armed forces with a view to pose a credible conventional military threat to Europe in the medium-to-long term. Indeed, recent expansionist rhetoric and a seemingly assured Putin during his ‘direct line’ telethon on 14 December points to a growing confidence and assertiveness from the Kremlin. This aligns with our assessment that the Kremlin has not abandoned its original war aims and believes it can win an attritional war in Ukraine.
On 14 December, the German BILD newspaper reported unspecified intelligence and unnamed sources the indicate Russia intends to occupy much more Ukrainian territory than it has claimed via its illegal annexation of Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. According to BILD’s sources, Russia plans to conquer all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts up to the Oskil River in Kharkiv oblast by the end of 2024. After that, Russian forces allegedly plan to take large areas of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts, including possibly Kharkiv city and Dnipro city, in 2025 and 2026.
BILD sources claim that Russia believes it can achieve these territorial conquests due to three principal reasons: improvements in its economy and military-industrial output; the fact that it can sustainably ‘burn’ 100,000 casualties a year; and finally the possibility of a Republican victory in the 2024 US presidential election would reduce or completely end military support for Ukraine. The Kremlin also reportedly sees no contradiction in opening negotiations while also expanding military operations at the same time, akin to what happened during negotiations for the Second Minsk Accord in 2015.
While we cannot confirm BILD’s reporting and the authenticity of its sources, the report aligns with our assessment that Russia is preparing for a protracted and attritional war predicated upon outlasting Western support for Ukraine and grinding forward to achieve further territorial conquests. (Source: Sibylline)
27 Dec 23. Biden Administration Announces New Security Assistance for Ukraine. Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration’s fifty-fourth tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This package includes additional air defense capabilities, artillery ammunition, anti-tank weapons, and other equipment to help Ukraine counter Russia’s war of aggression.
This package utilizes assistance previously authorized for Ukraine during prior fiscal years under Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA).
The capabilities in this much-needed package, valued at up to $250 m, include:
• Additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
• Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
• Air defense system components;
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
• More than 15 m rounds of small arms ammunition;
• Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing;
• Spare parts, medical equipment, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.
These capabilities will support Ukraine’s most pressing needs to enable its forces to defend their sovereignty and independence. U.S. leadership is essential to sustaining the coalition efforts of some 50 allies and partners currently supporting Ukraine.
Security assistance for Ukraine is a smart investment in our national security. It deters potential aggression elsewhere in the world, while strengthening our defense industrial base and creating highly skilled jobs for the American people. It remains critical that Congress takes action as soon as possible in the new year on the President’s national security supplemental request to ensure that our support for Ukraine can continue, and Ukraine is able to defend itself against Russia’s ongoing attacks and consolidate and extend its battlefield gains. (Source: U.S. DoD)
27 Dec 23. DOD Announces Aid Package for Ukraine. The Defense Department today announced a security assistance package for Ukraine valued at up to $250m.
The package includes air defense capabilities, artillery and antitank weapons and other equipment to help Ukraine in its continued fight to counter Russia’s unprovoked invasion.
The latest round of assistance marks the 54th drawdown of military equipment for Ukraine from DOD inventories since August 2021.
It comes amid negotiations on Capitol Hill over President Joe Biden’s supplemental request to Congress to continue critical funding for military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.
Defense officials have warned that, without action from Congress, further U.S. assistance for Ukraine could be in jeopardy at a critical time as Russia’s war approaches the two-year mark.
“We would, again, continue to urge the passage of the supplemental that we’ve submitted,” Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said in a briefing last week.
“As you look at the situation that Ukraine finds itself in, we will obviously continue to support them,” Ryder said. “But it is imperative that we have the funds needed to ensure that they get the most urgent battlefield capabilities that they require.”
In a recent letter to lawmakers, DOD comptroller Michael J. McCord said the department would be obligating the remaining $1 bn in funds authorized by Congress to replace U.S. inventories of weapons provided to Ukraine by the end of this month.
The security assistance package announced today is likely the last until Congress authorizes additional funds.
Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to Washington to meet with Biden, defense officials and lawmakers. During those talks, Zelenskyy extended his gratitude for the United States’ support and underscored his country’s urgent need for that support to continue.
After meeting with Zelenskyy at the White House, Biden pledged that the U.S. “will not walk away from Ukraine,” as he implored lawmakers to authorize additional funding.
“The brave people in Ukraine have defied Putin’s will at every turn, backed by the strong and unwavering support of the United States and our allies and partners in more than 50 nations in Europe and the Indo-Pacific,” Biden said. “Ukraine will emerge from this war proud, free and firmly rooted in the West unless we walk away.”
He said he would continue to provide U.S. military assistance for as long as congressionally approved funds are available.
“Without supplemental funding, we are rapidly coming to an end of our ability to help Ukraine respond to the urgent operational demands that it has,” he said.
“Putin is banking on the United States failing to deliver for Ukraine,” he continued. “We must prove him wrong.”
In introductory remarks ahead of Zelenskyy’s address at National Defense University in Washington, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III also underscored the United States’ “unshakable” commitment to supporting Ukraine as it defends itself against Russian aggression.
“Ukraine matters profoundly to America’s security and to the trajectory of global security in the 21st century,” Austin said. “That’s why the United States has committed more than $44bin in security assistance to Ukraine’s brave defenders.” He added that the U.S.-led coalition of allies and partners have also contributed more than $37bn in security assistance to Ukraine.
Austin said those contributions include capabilities that “are making a crucial difference on the battlefield” and have helped Ukraine retake more than half of the territory seized by Russia since February 2022.
He said the U.S. and its allies and partners remain “determined to help Ukraine consolidate and extend its battlefield gains and to build a future force that can ward off Russian aggression in the years ahead.”
(Source: U.S. DoD)
27 Dec 23. Russia to deploy newest howitzers against Ukrainian forces – Rostec. Russia will soon deploy its newest howitzers against Ukrainian forces as part of what Moscow calls its “special military operation,” the head of the Rostec state defence conglomerate said in remarks published on Wednesday. The testing of the new Coalition-SV self-propelled artillery units has been completed and their mass production has already started, Sergei Chemezov, the head of Rostec told the state RIA news agency in an interview.
The first pilot batch will be delivered by the end of 2023, he said.
“I think they will appear there (on the battlefield in Ukraine) soon, since howitzers of this class are needed to provide an advantage over Western artillery models in terms of firing range,” Chemezov said.
Russia’s TASS state news agency reported earlier this month that single Coalition-SV howitzers had already been deployed to the frontline in Ukraine.
The howitzers, with a range of up to 70 kilometres (44 miles), are equipped with a modern 2A88 cannon of 152 mm caliber with a firing rate of more than 10 rounds per minute, as well as a modern system for automating the processes of gun pointing, target selection and navigation, according to TASS. (Source: Reuters)
27 Dec 23. Russia warns Japan over providing Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine. A move by Japan to provide Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine will have “grave consequences” for Russia-Japan ties, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday.
Relations between Moscow and Tokyo, already difficult, have deteriorated sharply since Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in Feb. 2022. Japan has joined its Western allies in imposing sweeping economic sanctions on Russia.
Last week, Japan said it would prepare to ship Patriot air defence missiles to the United States after revising its arms export guidelines, in Tokyo’s first major overhaul of such export curbs in nine years.
Although Japan’s new export controls still prevent it from shipping weapons to countries that are at war, it may indirectly benefit Ukraine in its war with Russia as it gives the United States extra capacity to provide military aid to Kyiv.
“The Japanese side loses control over the weapons with which Washington can now do whatever it wants,” Zakharova told a weekly briefing. “It cannot be ruled out that under an already tested scheme Patriot missiles will end up in Ukraine.”
Such a scenario would be “interpreted as unambigously hostile actions against Russia and will lead to grave consequences for Japan in the context of bilateral relations”, she said.
Earlier this month, Japan and South Korea both scrambled jets to monitor joint flights by Chinese and Russian bombers and fighters near their territories.
Russia and Japan have yet to conclude a treaty formally ending World War Two hostilities due to an old territorial dispute involving a chain of Pacific islands known in Japan as the Northern Territories and in Russia as the Southern Kuriles.
Even before the Ukraine conflict, Tokyo had complained about increased Russian military deployments on the islands, which the Soviet Union seized from Japan at the end of World War Two. (Source: Reuters)
26 Dec 23. The EU is preparing a back-up plan worth up to €20bn for Ukraine, using a debt structure that sidesteps the objections of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán about funding the war-torn country. After EU leaders failed to agree a proposed €50bn four-year package for Ukraine earlier this month, officials have searched for alternatives to save Kyiv from a looming budget crisis if the bloc’s differences cannot be resolved. Officials involved in talks said one model funded by debt has gained traction as the most practical way to provide support if Orbán refuses to drop his veto at a planned summit on February 1. This scheme would involve participating member states issuing guarantees to the EU budget, enabling the European Commission to borrow up to €20bn on capital markets for Kyiv next year, people briefed on the talks said. The precise terms are still under discussion and the final amount would be set according to Ukraine’s needs, they added. The arrangement is similar to the structure used in 2020 when the commission provided up to €100bn in cheap financing to EU countries for short-term work-support schemes during the Covid pandemic. Crucially, the option would not require guarantees from all the EU’s 27 member states, as long as the main participants included countries with top credit ratings. That would allow the EU to sidestep Hungary’s veto because it would not require unanimous backing. Some countries, including Germany and the Netherlands, would need parliamentary approval for national guarantees, a process that officials hope could be completed in time to provide aid to Ukraine by March. One of the people familiar with the discussions said no “technical problem” blocked ways to provide budget finance to Kyiv, but that politically “it is more complicated”. If EU leaders agree on this plan on February 1, reassurance would be provided to the IMF to release its next tranche of funding for Ukraine worth about $900mn, the people briefed on the talks said. That should provide enough funding to Kyiv to avoid having to resort to monetary financing, where the government would print money to sustain its deficit and risk inflation spiralling, they added. One downside of this scheme, when compared with the original proposal based on the EU budget, is that it would be limited to loans and not include grants. Member states could still decide to provide grants bilaterally. Recommended News in-depthViktor Orbán EU strives to make Orbán realise ‘full costs’ of isolation after Ukraine veto Another back-up option under consideration involves rolling over the funding structure used this year, under which the EU provided €18bn in cheap loans to Ukraine, for a few months and up to a year. This option would need a weighted majority of countries to agree. But officials stress their preferred option is to approve the unaltered aid package first proposed in June but blocked by Hungary. That top-up to the EU budget, which remains the commission’s preferred arrangement because it covers a four-year timeline, also includes €4bn for other priorities, including defence investments and migration. Regardless of the model chosen, the EU has promised Ukraine it will provide funding by March at the latest, according to officials briefed on a call between G7 finance ministers last week. A spokesperson for the commission declined to comment.
(Source: FT.com)
27 Dec 23. Russia’s electronic warfare tactics are helping it turn the tide against Ukraine. A shield of electromagnetic pulses along the front lines provides troops with crucial protection to thwart Kyiv’s missile and drone attacks
At first, Ukraine noticed its GPS-guided 155mm Excalibur artillery shells suddenly started veering off target. Then rockets fired with Himars, which Kyiv once boasted had “scalpel-like” accuracy, began missing their targets. In some areas, they almost always missed.
The same happened to JDAM guided bombs supplied to Ukraine’s air force by the United States. Frantic investigation eventually discovered they had all fallen victim to a new threat – Russian jamming. Moscow has quietly developed a knack for taking out some of Ukraine’s most prized missiles and rockets. It is a rare but crucial example of Russian technological advantage in a war that has been slowly tipping in Moscow’s favour. Along almost the entirety of the front lines, an invisible wall of electromagnetic pulses now stretches like a shield. An elaborate network of radio, infrared and radar signals hurled into the skies over the battlefield provides Russian forces with unprecedented protections in some areas.
‘Their electronic warfare is better than ours’
And it’s not just Ukrainian missiles that are now failing to reach their targets. Perhaps more significant is Russia’s ability to counter the array of cheap, sometimes off-the-shelf, drones upon which Ukraine has become reliant for reconnaissance and long-range strikes.
Ukrainians know they are now at a disadvantage.
One front-line soldier, whose 120mm mortar unit regularly uses Chinese-made Mavic drones to spot targets, told The Telegraph: “They’ve always had good electronic warfare since the start of the full-scale invasion. But now it is better than us.”
Another person with knowledge of the front lines said: “It’s getting pretty intensive but nothing high-tech, just the same Russian stuff – power in quantity not quality.”
“It remains a major problem along the front,” Andrey Liscovich, of the Ukraine Defence Fund, recently told the Geopolitics Decanted podcast.
He explained Ukrainian forces are in a “continual game of cat and mouse” with their Russian enemy as they jostle for control of the airwaves.
The radio frequencies used to fly both first-person view attack drones and spotter UAV are “getting jammed quite comprehensively”.
Devices deployed by the Russians either scramble their guidance systems or simply sever the radio-control links with their operators.
Some drones crash to the floor without hitting their targets, while others hover uncontrolled in the air until their batteries run out.
Truck-mounted Shipovnik-Aero ‘especially effective’
A report by Royal United Services Institute, the defence and security think tank, suggests Russia has deployed one major electronic warfare system every six miles along the front line.
The truck-mounted Shipovnik-Aero is said to have proved especially effective against Ukrainian drones.
With a range of six miles, it can block drones and also acquire the coordinates of the pilot’s location, within one metre, in order to direct retaliatory artillery fire.
On parts of the front lines not covered by the more sophisticated systems, Russian soldiers use smaller, trench-based devices.
The battery-powered systems have ranges between 50 and 100 metres, and are not often switched on 24 hours a day to conserve power.
In these areas, it is often easier to hit targets because the machines are either not in operation or the drones get close enough for losing signal.
But in the zones more densely covered by electronic warfare jammers, Ukrainian soldiers are taking more and more precautions before launching their precious drones. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
26 Dec 23. We’ve lost destroyed Donbas town to Russia, Ukrainian general admits. Kyiv confirms the first loss of a major settlement since May after initial denials. Ukrainian forces have retreated from the destroyed town of Marinka in the eastern Donbas region, Kyiv has said, confirming its first loss of a major town since May.
General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s most senior military commander, admitted the loss on Tuesday after other Ukrainian officials initially denied that Russian forces had captured the town.
“There is nothing controversial about the fact that Ukrainian soldiers have stepped back to the outskirts of the town of Marinka,” he insisted.
Video and photos show the town to be utterly destroyed after nearly two years of continuous heavy fighting. The Kremlin claimed on Dec 25 that it had captured the town, its most significant battlefield victory since Wagner mercenary forces captured Bakhmut in May.
Pro-Moscow rebels celebrate
Pro-Russia rebel forces in Donetsk have already issued a commemorative stamp for the conquest featuring a swallow that they said represents “rebirth and renewal”.
Gen Zaluzhnyi said that it made tactical sense to retreat to more defensible positions.
“This is a war, so the fact that we have now retreated to the outskirts of Marinka and set up positions behind Marinka in some areas is nothing that can cause any public outcry,” he said.
Analysts have said that Marinka’s main strategic value to Russia is that it will allow Russian forces to turn their attacks against stronger Ukrainian forces to the south. It will also dent the already low morale among Ukrainian forces and Western allies, who are disappointed by Ukraine’s failed Nato-backed counteroffensive over the summer.
Russians ‘break chemical weapons pact’
Gen Zaluzhnyi has struck a more downbeat tone compared to other Ukrainian officials over the past few months, describing the war as a stalemate. Although Russian forces have been on the offensive, the New York Times has reported that the Kremlin is increasingly open to a ceasefire deal.
On the southern front line, Russian forces have been accused of dropping grenades filled with tear gas on Ukrainian marines who have recaptured a fishing village on the occupied left bank of the Dnipro River.
Analysts said that Russia has been dropping the K-51 grenades packed with CS gas in breach of the Chemical Weapons Convention since their initial invasion in 2014 to “smoke out” Ukrainian soldiers. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
24 Dec 23. Russia, Ukraine exchange claims over downed military aircraft. Russian and Ukrainian military officials both reported downing enemy aircraft on Sunday in different areas of the 1,000-km-long (621-mile) front of their 22-month-old war.
The commander of Ukraine’s air force, Mykola Oleshchuk, said Ukrainian anti-aircraft units had struck a Russian Su-34 fighter bomber near the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov in southern Ukraine.
Oleshchuk, writing on the Telegram messaging app, said the aircraft had not returned to its base, but gave no further details.
Russia’s Defence Ministry said earlier that its air defence systems had shot down four Ukrainian military aircraft over the past 24 hours — just two days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Kyiv had downed three Russian aircraft.
In its daily dispatch, the Russian Defence Ministry said its air defence shot down three Su-27 fighter aircraft and one Su-24 tactical bomber in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions of southeastern Ukraine. The dispatch provided no further details.
On Friday, Zelenskiy said the country’s forces shot down three Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber aircraft on the southern front, hailing it as a success in the conflict.
Air Force commander Oleshchuk also said the planes had been downed. (Source: Reuters)
24 Dec 23. Ukrainian pilots learn to fly F-16 fighter jets after completing basic training in the UK.
The UK has been providing basic training to Ukraine’s combat air pilots as a contribution to the international Air Force Capability Coalition for Ukraine
The first cohort of Ukrainian pilots to receive training from the Royal Air Force are now learning to fly F-16 fighter jets in Denmark, having completed a basic programme of training in the UK.
The RAF began delivering flying and English language training in August as part of the UK contribution to the international Air Force Capability Coalition for Ukraine, which sees allies and partners working together to bolster Ukraine’s air capabilities.
The group was formed of six experienced Ukrainian combat fighter pilots who received aviation-specific English language training to increase their ability to engage with coalition training and support.
A further ten Ukrainian trainee pilots took part in the language training and remain in the UK to continue with practical basic flight training, as well as to learn important skills such as aviation medicine and centrifuge training.
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said: “I am proud of the support the Royal Air Force is providing to the next generation of Ukraine’s combat air pilots and ground crew, who will be the first line of defence in protecting Ukraine’s skies. The UK has been instrumental in building Ukraine’s air defences since Putin launched his full-scale invasion, providing hundreds of missiles and munitions, as well as radar and weapons systems. While Ukraine was highly vulnerable to attack from Russian aircraft, drones, and missiles in the early months of the invasion – with support from the UK and our allies, its Armed Forces are now able to intercept and destroy the overwhelming majority of incoming ordnance – protecting their civilian population and vital infrastructure. Together we’re now going further by ensuring Ukraine has a modern air force in the future, formed around the highly capable fourth-generation F-16 fighter jet. Combined with training from the world-leading RAF, this is a significant step forward from Ukraine’s current Soviet-era capabilities.”
The programme is designed to give trainee pilots the skills required to advance to the next phase of training on fighter jets with partner nations and bring future Ukrainian pilots closer to a NATO standard approach to flying.
Pilots undergoing the basic flight training scheme are conducting practical lessons in Grob Tutor aircraft with experienced RAF instructors, learning general handling procedures, instrument flying, medium and low-level navigation, and formation flying.
Alongside the pilot training, dozens of Ukrainian aircraft technicians are also receiving English language training, geared towards engineering.
Defence Minister of Ukraine, Rustem Umerov, said: “Ukraine highly values the pilot training that the UK and other partners are providing, to help us prepare for operating F-16s in Ukraine. It is a rapid and effective programme to equip Ukrainian pilots with the skills they need in the war against Russia. Once they have completed their training with the RAF, pilots will be trained by another European nation on advanced flying training. This will prepare them for training on the F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft, overseen by Denmark, the Netherlands, and the United States, which lead the Air Force Capability Coalition.”
The Prime Minister confirmed the UK’s intent to support the Air Force Capability Coalition earlier this year with basic training, as the UK does not operate the F-16 aircraft Ukraine has selected to develop its future air force around.
The UK will continue this support to Ukrainian pilots and ground crew in 2024.
The trainees join more than 53,000 Ukrainians who have received training in the UK since Putin first ordered the invasion of Crimea in 2014. Last month, the Defence Secretary announced the UK will aim to train a further 10,000 Ukrainian recruits in the first half of 2024 as part of Operation Interflex.
Beyond providing a broad range of training programmes, the UK continues to support Ukraine to push back Russian forces. As part of the £4.6bn worth of UK military support, we have provided long range missiles, western main battle tanks, and logistical support to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
26 Dec 23. Ukraine’s military says it has destroyed a large Russian landing ship at a port in Crimea, marking another significant blow to Russia’s Black Sea fleet. The Ukrainian air force said on Tuesday that it had struck the Novocherkassk in the port of Feodosia, located on the eastern side of the peninsula. The 112-metre long Ropucha-class vessel was hit with cruise missiles at about 2.30am local time, it added. Unverified social media footage reposted by Lieutenant General Mykola Oleschuk, commander of Ukraine’s air force, showed a fireball over the naval facility. Air force spokesperson Yuriy Ignat attributed the large explosion to “the detonation of ammunition, since a large amphibious ship is used to transport equipment, weapons and personnel”. Russia’s defence ministry confirmed the Novocherkassk had been damaged in a Ukrainian guided-missile attack, according to state news agency Interfax. Sergei Aksyonov, the Kremlin-appointed governor of Crimea which was annexed by Moscow in 2014, said one person had died and several buildings were damaged. Ukraine’s strikes against Russia’s Black Sea fleet using British and French supplied Storm Shadow and Scalp cruise missiles, which have a range in excess of 250km, and Ukrainian-made aerial and naval drones, have been a rare bright spot in a year of military disappointments for Kyiv. Despite Ukraine not having a significant navy, the campaign has periodically forced Russian commanders to redeploy ships away from its main naval base at Sevastopol out of missile range. Recommended War in Ukraine Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia in maps: latest updates Together with better coastal and air defence capabilities, the strategy has enabled Ukraine to break Russia’s blockade of commercial ships in the Black Sea by pushing the Russian navy away from the port of Odesa and the coast. This has, in effect, re-established a viable shipping route for Kyiv’s exports, although it is not fully secure. Other previous wins for Ukraine include a strike using several cruise missiles in September that penetrated Russia’s air defences and destroyed the headquarters of the Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol. Kyiv claimed to have killed 34 Russian personnel, including top naval commanders, in the attack but Moscow denied there were any fatalities. Also in September, Ukraine said it had destroyed a sophisticated Russian S-400 air defence system covering the whole of the peninsula and damaged a landing ship and submarine in separate strikes. Ukraine scored its biggest naval success of the war in April last year when it sunk the Moskva, Russia’s Black Sea fleet flagship, using a domestically-developed Neptune anti-ship missile.
(Source: FT.com)
22 Dec 23. Netherlands to deliver 18 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. The Netherlands will deliver 18 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to help its battle against Russia’s invasion, the Dutch government said on Friday.
“Today I informed President Zelenskiy of our government’s decision to prepare an initial 18 F-16 fighter aircraft for delivery to Ukraine,” caretaker Prime Minister Mark Rutte said in a post on social media platform X.
“The delivery of F-16s is one of the most important elements of the agreements made on military support for Ukraine.”
The delivery of the fighter jets is still pending on an export permit by the Dutch ministry of Foreign Affairs and the fulfillment of criteria for staff and infrastructure in Ukraine, Rutte added without giving a timeline for these decisions.
But the announcement made it possible to reserve funds and people to prepare the planes for delivery, the government said.
“I spoke with Mark Rutte to thank the Dutch government for its decision to start preparing the initial 18 F-16 jets for their delivery to Ukraine,” Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy said on X.
The Netherlands sent its first U.S. made F-16s to a new training facility for Ukrainian pilots and staff in Romania last month.
Denmark, Norway and Belgium have also announced they will give F-16 jets to Ukraine, after the U.S. government approved sending them to defend against Russia as soon as pilot training is completed. (Source: Reuters)
24 Dec 23. Russia says it downs four Ukrainian military aircraft. Russia’s defence ministry said on Sunday its air defence systems had shot down four Ukrainian military aircraft over the past 24 hours, just two days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Kyiv had downed three Russian fighter-bomber jets. In its daily dispatch, the defence ministry said its air defence shot down three Su-27 fighter aircraft and one Su-24 tactical bomber in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions of southeastern Ukraine. The dispatch provided no further details.
On Friday, Zelenskiy said the country’s forces shot down three Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber aircraft on the southern front, hailing it as a success in the 22-month-old conflict. The commander of Ukraine’s air force also said the planes had been downed. Reuters was not immediately able to corroborate the battlefield reports from either side.(Source: Reuters)
18 Dec 23. Automatic Vehicle Mounted Mortars to Get Combat Debut. In April 2023 it was reported that the Polish Government had agreed to provide the Ukrainian Army with three tactical sets of its RAK120 Armoured Vehicle Mounted Mortars.
Footage and photos have now been released by the Ukrainian military in the publication Militarnyi showing the deployment of these system with the 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade. This will see the first employment of this self-propelled automatic mortar in actual combat and could provide a true battlefield test of the utility and benefits of this innovative close indirect fire support system. Despite several designs being developed, manufactured and in service with a number of armies to date the automatic mortar has not been proven in combat.
The RAK120 itself was developed by Poland’s Huta Stalowa Wola (HSW) funded by the Polish Government. It is one of a few self-propelled automatic mortars which include the Finnish Patria NEMO and AMOS, as well as the recently displayed Crossbow from Elbit Systems. These vehicles mounted mortars differ from conventional self-propelled mortars like the M106 which uses the M113 APC or M1129 using the Stryker chassis.
The RAK and NEMO have the mortar mounted in a turret with 360-degree training. They are breech loaded from inside the vehicle rather than having the projectile dropped down the tube. The crew is thus fully protected during firing and not exposed as in traditional mortar operations. This arrangement also allows for automatic loading of the weapon. In the RAK120 the commander and gunner are located in the turret while in the NEMO the turret is unmanned and remotely controlled by crew in hull positions.
Other benefits of these automatic mortars, are their ability to not only engage targets with indirect fires to ranges of over 10km, but also the capability for direct fire. These systems utilize automated fire controls integrating on-board navigation, ballistic computation, and gun laying. Thus, they can not only fire within seconds of halting, but also execute MRSI missions where up to five rounds are aimed to impact simultaneously on a target. Full stabilization can also be provided permitting accurate firing while moving.
While the RAK120 being employed by Ukraine utilized the 8×8 Rosomak armoured vehicle, the NEMO and AMOS have been integrated on a number of chassis wheeled and tracked, as well as, on fast combatant craft.
Ukraine is understood to have twenty-four RAK120s plus twelve fire-control vehicles. The Swedish Army in 2020 introduced a similar turreted self-propelled mortar on the CV90, the Mjolner. Reports suggest that it has caused a major rethinking in its tactical employment of mortars. With interest being shown in the automatic turreted mortar by other armies including the United States and it is expected that close attention will be given to how the RAK120 performs against the Russian forces.
(Source: Armada)
20 Dec 23. Rat bite fever strikes Russian troops. Russian soldiers are suffering from an outbreak of rat-bite fever, Ukraine’s defence intelligence (DIU) has said. Transmitted by dust from rodent excrement, symptoms of the disease include migraines, high temperatures, reduced blood pressure, rashes, vomiting and bleeding from the eyes. The streptococcal infection is said to have spread rapidly on the Kupyansk front due to complaints initially falling on deaf ears, as Russian commanders believed soldiers were trying to avoid fighting.
The DIU said: “In the Kupyansk direction of the front of the occupiers, rat-bite fever is mowing down en masse. “As a result, rat-bite fever significantly reduced the fighting ability of the Russian rats.” (Source: Daily Telegraph)
20 Dec 23. French Support for Ukraine: What Results Since the Start of the War? Since February 24, 2022, France and its European partners have supported Ukraine in its war against Russia. Delivery of weapons and equipment, training of Ukrainian soldiers, establishment of special financial mechanisms: focus on 22 months of military assistance from Paris to enable Kiev to defend itself.
From February 24, 2022, France and its European partners decided to display unwavering unity to denounce the “unbelievable violence deployed by Russia against Ukraine and its people” and responded to Kiev’s requests for weapons and equipment, so that Ukrainian fighters are able to defend the territorial integrity of their Nation.
For France, military support for Ukraine is organized around three major programs:
— Transfers of weapons and equipment
— Participation in training programs for Ukrainian military personnel
— The establishment of financial mechanisms to allow kyiv to directly acquire equipment
Transfers of weapons and equipment
Since the start of the war, France has supported Ukraine by providing comprehensive capabilities adapted to the demands and needs of the Ukrainians. These deliveries always respect the same three criteria: delivering what Ukraine needs, without weakening the French armies and by avoiding escalation.
From the end of February 2022, essential equipment will be transferred to Ukraine in order to counter the massive Russian offensive include anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, personal protective equipment and individual weapons.
Caesar howitzer’s decisive role
Secondly, an effort is made to provide heavier and more complex systems: light vehicles, armored vehicles and especially Caesar artillery systems with their ammunition. France has notably delivered 18 Caesars and provided training in their use and maintenance.
French strategy places great importance on operational and sustainable capabilities: “Having a soldier on a weapon is good, having the mechanic who goes with it is even better,” underlines Sébastien Lecornu, the Minister of the Armed Forces. The Caesar cannon plays a determining role in the operations carried out: mobility, range and precision make it a particularly effective instrument in counter-battery fire.
The effectiveness of Mistral surface-to-air missiles is also appreciated by the Ukrainian armed forces.
Thirdly and in response to the Ukrainian request for capacity building in the field of air defense, France provided, among others, two Crotale NG anti-aircraft systems. In the field of artillery, it also delivered multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) as well as their ammunition. The Crotale NG today allows Ukraine to protect itself drones, missiles and aerial bombardments.
Strengthen air defense capabilities
In 2023, France’s military support continued and even increased. In this context, the President of the Republic announced on January 4, 2023 additional support for Ukraine in the field of ground vehicles with the supply of AMX-10 RC armored vehicles. These deliveries are accompanied by specific training. They have also led to a dynamic, among our partners, of sending Western-designed battle tanks.
At the same time, France continues to deliver ammunition and surface-to-air missiles, 12 new Caesars, a GM200 long-range air surveillance radar as well as a SAMP/T system which helps strengthen the air defense capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. During the NATO summit in Vilnius, the President of the Republic announced the delivery of Scalp missiles which extend the deep strike capabilities already delivered with the MLRS.
The visit by the Minister of the Armed Forces to Kyiv last September marked a further evolution of France’s military support for Ukraine. For the long-term, France will replace the delivery of weapons from its own inventories to promoting industrial partnerships between Ukraine and companies from the French defense industrial and technological base (BITD).
Training of Ukrainian soldiers
Thanks to an operational and dialogue with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, France best responds to the different needs expressed by the Ukrainian armed forces, ranging from training to implementation to maintenance. Training support for Ukrainian forces is structured around three pillars: specialty training, executive training and collective training at battalion level.
On a national level, France continues to provide the training necessary to operate the equipment transferred to Ukraine: Caesar and TRF1 field artillery; driving and weapons handling for VABs; maintenance on Caesar and VAB; and operating the AMX-10 RC armored vehicles.
Today, France is also participating in the European Union military assistance mission for Ukraine (EUMAM). Ukrainian soldiers are trained in France, to the tune of 200 per month, through three types of training: company-level combined arms combat (SGTIA); on specific needs reported by Ukrainians, such as mine clearance; and the use of provided equipment.
Battalions of around 600 Ukrainian soldiers are also being trained in Poland. Overall, France will have trained nearly 8,000 Ukrainian soldiers in 2023, or around a quarter of the soldiers trained within the framework of EUMAM (objective of 30,000 in 2023). These training courses are intended to continue in 2024 and to extend to other areas (naval and air).
Ukrainian fighter pilots for 2024
Finally, on May 15, 2023, the President of the Republic announced that France had offered Ukraine the opportunity to train fighter pilots, jointly with several European partners. The first pilots will arrive at the beginning of 2024. After the initial training provided in France, they will continue their training on fighter aircraft through training provided by our partners.
Setting up financial mechanisms
On October 13, 2022, Sébastien Lecornu and his Ukrainian counterpart, Oleksii Reznikov, signed an agreement in Brussels, on the sidelines of the NATO ministerial meeting, to create the special fund to support Ukraine. This special fund was provided with 200 m euros for the year 2023 and is designed to allow Ukraine to enter into contracts with the French BITD and to obtain, as soon as possible and at the best price, the weapons it needs. This fund has shown its full effectiveness, and it was therefore decided to replenish it with an additional 200 m euros at the end of 2023.
On the other hand, at the European level, the “European Peace Facility” (EPF), created in 2021, is used to allow deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine by member states. This financial tool of the European Union’s foreign policy made it possible to mobilize 7.2 bn euros for the benefit of Ukraine after successive replenishments.
France is the second contributor to this mechanism with nearly 1.3 bn euros at the end of 2024, or 18% of the aid to Ukraine from the EPF.
(Unofficial translation by Defense-Aerospace.com) (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/: French Ministry of the Armed Forces; issued Dec. 19, 2023)
20 Dec 23. Ukraine Invested $46bn for Its Defense This Year: Security Council. More than UAH 1.7trn for the Security and Defence Forces: Funding is Being Delivered in Full. In January-November 2023, the security and defence sector of Ukraine was financed by the general fund of the state budget in full in accordance with the monthly allocation plan, amounting to UAH 1,700,152.6m (approx. $45.7bn–Ed.), or 27.1% of GDP.
The analysis of the results of the relevant financing of the security and defence sector of Ukraine was carried out on instructions from Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine Oleksii Danilov.
According to Mykola Dyshliuk, Head of the Service for Financial Support of National Security and Defence, the special fund of the state budget for the security and defence sector received UAH624,657.7m, or 539.7% of the annual plan.
In order to fully utilise the funds allocated for this year, the security and defence sector agencies are currently working on proposals to optimise expenditures and attract free balances to finance critical needs for 2023.
The Head of the Service added that the NSDC Office continues to carry out monitoring activities in accordance with the established procedure as part of the control over the implementation of the relevant decision of the NSDC of Ukraine.
For reference: According to Presidential Decree No. 651 of 15 September 2022 “On the Decision of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine dated 15 September 2022 “On Proposals to the Draft Law of Ukraine “On the State Budget of Ukraine for 2023” on Articles Related to Ensuring National Security and Defence of Ukraine”, the Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine is charged with monitoring the implementation of the NSDC decision. (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ National Security and Defence Council of)
19 Dec 23. (Extract) Ukrainian army chiefs have asked Volodymyr Zelenskyy to mobilise up to 500,000 people as the country gears up for a protracted war of attrition against Russia next year. Speaking at a year-end press conference in Kyiv on Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said his top commanders had asked to mobilise 450,000 to 500,000 men and women, including through conscription. But he said he had not yet made a decision on what was a “very sensitive issue”. After a failed summer counteroffensive and with western financial and military support faltering, Zelenskyy is enduring the toughest period since the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Russia has cranked up military production and Ukraine will need to draw deeper on its own resources — including manpower — to hold its lines next year, say analysts and western officials. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu tour an exhibition of cutting-edge pieces of armament: Russia has cranked up military production © Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/Kremlin via Reuters Zelenskyy said he had instructed his military chiefs to develop a detailed plan explaining why so many new troops were needed, as well as how current and past fighters could be given time to rest or possibly delist from service. “I need specifics,” he said. “What will happen to the m-strong army of Ukraine . . . what will happen to those who have been protecting our country for two years?” Ukraine has about 1mn men and women in its armed forces. It has taken heavy casualties, especially among experienced troops and junior officers, but the numbers of dead and injured are kept secret. The Ukrainian president has come under pressure from military officers in recent weeks to significantly expand conscription to make up for casualties and allow more rotations for frontline troops. (Source: FT.com)
19 Dec 23. Russia makes fresh gains along entire front-line. Russian forces have advanced in Ukraine again as they continue attacks along the entire front-line. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think-tank confirmed Russian advances north-east of Kubyansk, north of Bakhmut and south-west of Avdiivka. Russia has seized the initiative on the battlefield in recent weeks and made a number of confirmed gains.
On Tuesday, Vladimir Putin said Russia was not “going to abandon the goals of the special military operation” as he addressed his ministry of defence. His remarks came as Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi said his men were being forced to scale back offensives because of artillery shell shortages. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
19 Dec 23. Ukraine to produce one million drones next year, Zelenskiy says. Ukraine will produce one m drones next year, boosting current production levels, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday.
Ukraine has been working to increase its domestic weapons production since the start of Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Drones increasingly play a central role on the battlefield and are used in large numbers by both Kyiv and Moscow.
“Regarding production, we will produce a m drones next year,” Zelenskiy told a televised news conference. “We will make a m. We will do everything to make it so. I know that’s how it will be.”
Government officials have previously said that Ukraine aims to produce tens of thousands of drones every month by the end of this year. No figures on current drone production are available.
Since the start of the war, drone production in Ukraine has shot up, with dozens of companies developing and producing different models. Ukrainian military commanders have said more was needed.
Zelenskiy acknowledged challenges and said that his government team and the military worked on how to upgrade and modernize Soviet-era logistics and other procedures to ensure swift and easy drone supplies to combat units on the battlefield.
Zelenskiy also said Ukraine was looking for ways to increase domestic production of artillery ammunition, especially 155 mm shells. A senior army general told Reuters this week that frontline Ukrainian troops face shortages of artillery shells. (Source: Reuters)
19 Dec 23. (Extract) US Senate negotiators have given up on passing a deal this year to provide billions of dollars in war funding for Ukraine, starting their holiday recess and pushing talks into January. Negotiators from both parties in Congress have been wrangling for weeks over Republican demands to tighten US border security before considering a White House request for more funding for Kyiv. But after talks floundered, Senate leaders on Tuesday confirmed that negotiations would have to proceed into January, after the holiday recess. “The bottom line is that both Democrats and Republicans understand that there’s more work to do to pass legislation protecting America’s security and the security of the western world,” Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader in the Senate, told reporters in Washington. “Our goal is to get something done as soon as we get back” in January, Schumer added. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, visited Washington earlier this month in a bid to win more funding for Kyiv, but was rebuffed by Republicans in Congress. President Joe Biden has warned that the US might “run out of money” to help Kyiv, adding that Congress’s refusal to increase aid would be a “gift” to Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin. John Kirby, National Security Council spokesperson, said on Tuesday that existing funding authority would allow the Pentagon to send one more aid package to Kyiv this year, but that it would be the last without new legislation. “We have one more security assistance package available to us before the end of this year before we run out,” he said. “That’s why it’s so critical that Congress act on that supplemental funding.” The decision to push more talks into next month means negotiations could collide with congressional deadlines on January 19 and February 2 to avoid shutdowns of various government agencies. The US has already sent more than $75bn in assistance to Ukraine, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research institute. The EU has given more financial aid to Ukraine, but the US has provided significantly more military aid. Republicans have grown increasingly sceptical of giving more aid to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion almost two years ago. In December, Senate Republicans blocked a $111bn spending package that included $60bn for Ukraine. Republicans have said they will resist further calls for Ukraine funding unless it is tied to funding for increased US border security. Apprehensions at the US-Mexico border have escalated from 1.7mn in the 2021 fiscal year to about 2.5mn this year. “We cannot do a national security supplemental bill absent dealing with a national security crisis at our southern border,” said John Thune, the Republican Senate whip. Recommended Martin Sandbu ‘Ukraine fatigue’ is a problem of western leaders’ own making Debate in Congress has focused on how to detain, process and release migrants at US borders, including those seeking asylum. Some Democrats, however, have baulked at efforts to give the federal government greater power to expel migrants, likening some proposals to Donald Trump-era policies. (Source: FT.com)
19 Dec 23. Sweden Recounts Delivery of Anti-Ship Missiles to Ukraine. Robot 17 Engages Targets in the War Against Russia. An airplane lands at a secret location in Sweden. About 20 Ukrainian soldiers who come directly from the brutal frontline battles in the war against Russia step out of the aircraft. They are here to be trained on Robot 17, in the first training of Ukrainian soldiers on Swedish soil. (Robot 17 is the Swedish designation of a ground-launched, anti-ship variant of the Hellfire missile developed for the Swedish navy–Ed.)
The year is 2022, it’s almost midsummer and the holidays are just around the corner. For the Ukrainian soldiers, there will be no summer vacation as Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of their homeland. The Swedish Parliament has decided that the Armed Forces should support Ukraine.
The decision includes, among other things, that the navy will send down Robot 17 units to the war, as well as train Ukrainian soldiers in how to handle the weapon system.
“From the minute they set foot on Swedish soil, it was full of excitement, and they were very motivated”, says Lisa, implementation manager from the 2nd Amphibious Battalion, of the unit from Ukraine.
The naval staff began the initial planning of the training and at an early stage the 2nd Amphibious Battalion from Stockholm’s Amphibious Regiment was engaged, and tasked with conducting the training. A week after the order from the Riksdag reached the Armed Forces, the plane with the Ukrainian soldiers landed. The first training mission on Swedish soil was now underway after only a few days of preparation. Planning, reconnaissance, packing and other preparations were completed in a very short time.
“To cancel in such a short time, reschedule vacations and do this for another nation makes me proud. It is a strength of the Armed Forces, that when required, the entire authority is there to solve the task.”
Courage and Will
The training was carried out in a sparingly equipped place in the middle of the Swedish forest. There weren’t a lot of support resources, but just enough to make it work. The staff on site had to solve the logistics, for example going and buying wood and tools to be able to build their own missile targets. This is to ensure good opportunities to pursue qualified training. It also included making sure that the troop that came had everything they needed, such as motorcycle overalls so they looked like the Swedish colleagues.
“Missile service is physically demanding, and the team that came were not that physically prepared for what awaited. But they didn’t whine, they bit the bullet and drove on. No matter how late the training went, some evenings we practiced until around 3am.
When it was time to say goodbye, many had difficulty holding back the tears. The Swedes and the Ukrainians shared accommodation, which led to strong friendships being formed.
“They shared their life and their experiences, they were really filled with courage and will. A 21-year-old soldier said that he had never had time to see his child, it took a toll.”
The missiles sent by the navy are used by the Ukrainians today thanks to the knowledge they gained during the training.
In parallel with the planning for the training, the missiles to be donated to Ukraine were clarified. This too needed to be done quickly so that the squad could use the knowledge they had just learned as soon as they got back to the front. A work that absolutely no one was told about when, where and how it would take place.
Erik, who was logistics coordinator for the transport of the robots, says: “The robot workshop had to go through each individual to check the ability and ensure that everything was included.”
Continued Support
The entire operation was conducted under high secrecy with very restrictive disclosure. It was really only the staff on site and a select few who knew this was even happening. Despite this, the training and delivery achieved the desired result and effect – sharp robots that hit the target. And trained operators who can not only handle the robots themselves, but who can train their peers back home in Ukraine.
At the beginning, it was stated that after the Swedish Navy had trained the Ukrainian soldiers and sent down missiles, the support would end. No technical support would be provided. After some time, however, Ukraine asked for further help and of course there was nothing else to do but stand up.
“The operators wanted to talk to us to sort out the problems they had. I was sitting at home at a family party and started calling people to my house, colleagues with cutting-edge expertise in the Robot 17 system from the Marine Staff, the 2nd Amphibious Battalion, FMV and the missile workshop. Two hours later, everyone was sitting in my basement. That was the starting point for continued support,” says Petra at the Naval Staff.
Since then, the support has continued. The Marine Staff, the Stockholm Amphibious Regiment, the robot workshop and FMV have together ensured that the Ukrainian operators get the help they need with the robotic system. It can be anything from technical issues to material issues. The work is in progress together with RDC-U, the first instance into Ukraine. (Unofficial translation by Defense-Aerospace.com) (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/Danish Ministry of Defence; issued Dec 18, 2023)
19 Dec 23. Denmark and Sweden Join Forces on Joint Donation of CV90 Infantry Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine. Denmark and Sweden join forces on a donation of CV90 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine worth almost DKK 2bn (approx. $244m–Ed.). Sweden has already donated 50 units of CV90 to Ukraine, and Ukraine has since requested the donation of additional new CV90 infantry fighting vehicles.
Together with the Swedish government, the government has decided to co-finance the already initiated donation as well as the initiation of production of additional CV90 infantry fighting vehicles. In addition to the CV90 vehicles, the donation also includes spare parts, ammunition and a multi-year maintenance agreement so that the vehicles can be logistically supported after delivery.
CV90 infantry fighting vehicles are highly sought after and in demand by Ukraine, and the government has therefore allocated DKK 1.8 bn in 2023 for the donation.
“Denmark and Sweden have exemplary defense cooperation, both bilaterally and under the auspices of NATO, NORDEFCO and the EU, with great importance for the security of both nations. The current bilateral agreement is an important contribution in our joint ambition to continue to support Ukraine’s freedom struggle. We are therefore joining forces to donate Swedish-produced infantry fighting vehicles that Ukraine has requested for use in their defense battle against Russia,” says Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen.
In addition to the Danish-Swedish cooperation, Donation package XIV contains military support for Ukraine for over DKK 7 bn in 2023-2026. These are materiel and types of ammunition that are essential for maintaining Ukraine’s defense capability and combat power.
As with previous donation packages, Donation Package XIV consists of agreements on both purchases and donations from the defense industry as well as joint donations. In addition to the cooperation with Sweden, this donation consists of agreements to make acquisitions of weapons, ammunition and equipment in cooperation with Great Britain, Germany, the Netherlands, Estonia and the Czech Republic.
The donation is financed via the Ukraine Foundation and is implemented after consultation with the Foreign Policy Council and subject to accession to the Finance Committee. (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/)
19 Dec 23. Australian E-7A Wedgetail Begins Operating from Ramstein AB in Germany. Night has fallen at Ramstein Air Base in southern Germany, and the temperature plummets towards freezing, but the cold weather does not deter the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) maintenance crew hard at work on the tarmac. Their efforts are to prepare the RAAF Wedgetail E-7A, a twin-engine airborne early warning and control aircraft, which has deployed to Europe under Operation Kudu. The Wedgetail E-7A and a contingent of about 100 personnel have deployed to Germany with a mission profile of protecting humanitarian and military assistance bound for Ukraine.
Their flying missions have successfully commenced.
Commander of the Task Element Wing Commander Darrin Lindsay said that the contingent was assisting to provide key protection of the logistic node in eastern Europe.
“It’s allowed us to give defence to the logistics hub, which is allowing the Ukrainian people to protect themselves,” Wing Commander Lindsay said. “We remain ready when called upon to work the surveillance effort as required.”
The contingent, drawn mostly from 2 Squadron, but with support elements including 1 Security Forces Squadron and 1 Combat Communications Squadron, are making the most of the opportunity to use their skills in support of this important operational mission.
While the deployment is challenged by environmental conditions that have been significantly colder than back home at RAAF Base Williamtown, near Newcastle, this task has been met by the opportunity for the contingent to up-skill.
In a RAAF first, the contingent has successfully tested a new de-icing and anti-icing capability.
An avionics technician from 2 Squadron said that this was an addition to the routine pre-flight checks to ensure the safety and performance of the jet.
“Routine pre-flight checks to get the aircraft ready include preparing the cockpit, making sure it’s configured correctly and running up the mission systems to make sure all the systems are serviceable,” the technician said.
“We’ve just successfully completed a de-icing procedure, which makes sure there is no ice build-up on flight services, because it is safety critical for flight.
“This is so we ensure all the ice is removed, and then we apply a thin layer of type four fluid to prevent any more build up.”
The aircraft has deployed at the request of the United States Air Force (USAF) to integrate with the effort of Australia’s partners, including the United States and NATO, to support the multilayered protection of an eastern European logistic hub.
Combat Operations Division Chief, 603rd Air Operations Center, Colonel Roderick James, said that the Australian contingent has performed admirably so far.
“I’ve worked with the Australian Air Force for the bulk of my career and their performance has always been outstanding,” Colonel James said. “Here at Ramstein they are providing a critical capability while ensuring peace and stability in the region.”
The Wedgetail E-7A is a highly advanced and capable platform that provides superior battlespace awareness and the ability for a commander to survey, command, control and coordinate in real time.
No ADF personnel or assets will enter Ukraine, and the E-7A is operating outside of Ukrainian, Russian and Belarusian airspace during this deployment. The ADF’s Wedgetail mission in Germany will continue until April 2024. (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Australian Department of Defence)
19 Dec 23. Ukraine Starts Mass Production of 750 km Range ‘Kamikaze’ Drones. Terminal Autonomy, previously known as One Way Aerospace, recently announced a successful agreement made with Ukraine’s defense forces. A supply batch of the long-range kamikaze drone, AQ 400 Scythe, is said to have been provided to the forces.
The company also highlighted its current progress with implementing serial production for this weapon class. The initial production rate for the AQ 400 Scythe drones stands at 100 units each month, with ambitious plans to boost this rate fivefold to 500 units. However, the specific timeline for this production expansion remains unclear.
It appears that Terminal Autonomy achieved its goal of creating an affordable, mass-produced means of destruction with the AQ 400 Scythe. This drone’s versatile capabilities could greatly enhance the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ combat capabilities.
The AQ 400 Scythe boasts an impressive range of 750 km, offering the potential of regularly targeting sites within the Russian Federation, given the proposed production scale of hundreds of drones per month.
The take-off weight for the drone stands at 100 kg, and a considerable part, 32 kg, constitutes the warhead [the entirety of the payload is 43 kg]. This weight can be increased to 70 kg by limiting the flight range. Significantly, this drone’s warhead matches, if not surpasses, the 40 kg payload carried by the Shahed [Geran-2] kamikaze drones currently used by Russia against Ukraine.
Adding to its impressive features, the AQ 400 Scythe drone possesses a wingspan of 2.3m and hits a cruising speed of 144km/h. If equipped with a minimum warhead, it can remain in the air for up to 6.5 hours. Launching options for the drone are flexible; it can take off from a catapult or a runway. Alas, Terminal Autonomy did not give any more details about this game-changing development.
There’s a possibility that the AQ 400 Scythe has already seen action on the battlefield. The recent frequency of mass drone strikes on temporarily occupied Crimea raises speculations about this. It’s also plausible that other long-range UAVs in the service of the Defense Forces could be accountable for these attacks.
Terminal Autonomy previously teased that the AQ-400 Scythe kamikaze drone was a precursor sent out before a cost-effective cruise missile became available. The missile’s projected range stands at 1000 km and speed at 350 km/h. Further specifications, including the warhead type, are yet to be revealed. Interestingly, the company has hinted that each unit of this formidable weapon could cost under 100 thousand dollars. (Source: UAS VISION/Bulgarian Military)
18 Dec 23. Ukrainian troops face artillery shortages, scale back some operations – commander.
• Summary
• Oleksandr Tarnavskyi has led Ukrainian counteroffensives
• Troops are tired but hopeful of victory, he says
• He says foreign aid not arriving in sufficient volumes
• Stockpiles of artillery shells are a problem, he says
Frontline Ukrainian troops face shortages of artillery shells and have scaled back some military operations because of a shortfall of foreign assistance, a senior army general told Reuters.
Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi was speaking after Republican lawmakers held up a $60-bn U.S. aid package and Hungary blocked 50 bn euros ($54.5 bn) in European Union funding for Kyiv as it battles Russia’s invasion.
“There’s a problem with ammunition, especially post-Soviet (shells) – that’s 122 mm, 152 mm. And today these problems exist across the entire front line,” he said in an interview.
Tarnavskyi said the shortage of artillery shells was a “very big problem” and the drop in foreign military aid was having an impact on the battlefield.
“The volumes that we have today are not sufficient for us today, given our needs. So, we’re redistributing it. We’re replanning tasks that we had set for ourselves and making them smaller because we need to provide for them,” he said, without providing details.
The comments underline Kyiv’s reliance on Western military aid to fight Russian troops along a 1,000-km front nearly 22 months into the biggest conflict in Europe since World War Two.
Russian forces also face ammunition problems, Tarnavskyi said, without specifying their nature.
Weary Ukrainian troops on the southeastern front have gone on the defensive in some areas but are trying to attack in others, he said.
Ukrainian forces still expect victories but would benefit from reserves to rotate and rest them, he said.
“In some areas, we moved (to defence), and in some we continue our offensive actions – by manoeuvre, fire and by moving forward. And we are preparing our reserves for our further large-scale actions,” he said.
RUSSIA’S CHANGING TACTICS
Tarnavskyi, commander of the “Tavria” operational grouping, led a counteroffensive that forced Russian troops out of the southern city of Kherson and the western side of the Dnipro River in November 2022, Kyiv’s last major battlefield success.
He also had a prominent role in a larger-scale push in the southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia this year that made little progress against vast Russian trenches and minefields.
Russia is on the offensive in the east and trying to encircle the strategic eastern town of Avdiivka, whose defence Tarnavskyi oversees.
“Their (Russian forces’) intention remains (the same). The only thing is that their actions change, tactics change… attacks are carried out constantly,” he said.
The situation in Avdiivka was changing “every day and every night” with Russian forces regularly altering their tactics, having achieved “partial success in some areas at a depth of about 1.5 to 2km”, he said.
“I believe that we are firmly maintaining these lines today,” he said. “Today, the enemy is pressuring us with their numbers. They have never cared and will not care for their personnel.”
Avdiivka is widely seen as vital to Russia’s aim of wresting full control of the two eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk – two of the four Ukrainian regions Russia says it has annexed but does not have full control of.
‘EVERYONE HOPES’
Neither side has made significant territorial gains this year and the fighting is largely attritional.
Tarnavskyi said all brigades were working out ways to give personnel some rest.
“Today we have certain difficulties with the personnel that we have on the front lines. Yes, today they are not so fresh, not so rested,” he said. “Every commander should have a reserve.”
Kyiv has been discussing ways to improve the way men are conscripted into the army, and lawmakers are drawing up legislation to enhance the process, though the exact details are not yet known.
Tarnavskyi said winter conditions – the cold, reduced visibility and lack of cover from trees that have no foliage – were a challenge for both sides.
“But we have many years of experience of conducting military operations in winter conditions. Logistics, and evacuation and movement of equipment and personnel are complicated,” he said.
Ukraine increasingly needs the means to defend itself against growing strikes by Russian attack drones, but Ukraine is banking on Western F-16 fighter jets being delivered, he said.
“With the presence of the F-16, it will be totally (different). In my opinion, as an infantry officer, the F-16 is like a Mercedes compared with a Zaporozhets (an old Soviet car),” he said. “Everyone is hoping.” ($1 = 0.9164 euros) (Source: Reuters)
18 Dec 23. Biden to use last of Ukraine funds this month if Congress fails to act. The Biden administration has notified Congress it will authorize a $1bn tranche of Ukraine military aid at the end of the month, but it will be the last package Kyiv can expect if lawmakers do not pass additional funds to continue supporting the embattled country against Russia’s invasion.
Pentagon Comptroller Mike McCord sent Congress the notification, obtained by Defense News, on Friday detailing how the Biden administration plans to make use of the last $1bn in funding to replenish U.S. weapons stockpiles sent to Ukraine.
“Once these funds are obligated, the department will have exhausted the funding available to us for security assistance to Ukraine,” McCord wrote to the leaders of the Armed Services and defense appropriations committees. “It is essential that Congress act without delay on the administration’s pending supplemental request.”
“Doing so is in our clear national interest, and our assistance is vitally needed so Ukraine can continue its fight for freedom and to ensure Russia continues to fail in Ukraine,” he added.
Senate Republicans earlier this month blocked proceedings on a massive defense foreign aid spending package that included $61 bn in Ukraine security and economic assistance, insisting the White House and Democrats agree to unrelated U.S. immigration policy changes. Senators remain in Washington to continue negotiating immigration policy changes this week, but the House is in recess until January.
While the White House has less than $5 bn in presidential drawdown authority to transfer weapons to Ukraine from U.S. stockpiles, it will have no funds left to replenish that equipment after its last aid package later this month.
McCord’s notification indicated Biden’s final $1 bn package this month will include Javelin anti-tank missiles, 155mm artillery projectile rounds, tactical vehicle replacements, camouflage parkas and the procurement of classified missile systems.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the White House and Congress last week pleading for lawmakers to pass additional aid so Kyiv can obtain better air defenses against Russia. He also asked for longer-range Army Tactical Missile Systems that can travel as far as 190 miles.
Zelenskyy also visited Capitol Hill in September, warning Ukraine would lose the war without additional assistance.
While Ukraine enjoys bipartisan majority support in both chambers, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has vowed not to put additional aid for Kyiv on the floor unless it’s paired with a Republican immigration bill that Democrats strongly oppose.
Congress passed a cumulative $113bn in economic and military aid for Ukraine last year. But a new Republican House majority whose members have become increasingly skeptical of Ukraine aid thwarted efforts to pass a more limited $6bn package for Kyiv in September. Republicans opposed to the aid have voiced concerns Congress will have to continue appropriating similar amounts of money for Ukraine in the years ahead as the war atrophies into a stalemate.
Pushing debate on Ukraine aid into 2024 also coincides with the start of the Republican presidential primaries. The Republican frontrunner, former President Donald Trump, has criticized Ukraine aid.
Additionally, the foreign aid spending debate is likely to run up against Congress’ deadline to pass the fiscal 2024 appropriations bills, with funding for military construction set to expire on Jan. 19 and the rest of the Defense Department on Feb. 2.
Congress must pass those bills to fund the FY24 National Defense Authorization Act, which it passed last week. The defense policy bill authorizes $300m for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative in both FY24 and FY25, a small fraction of the additional $61 bn President Joe Biden has asked Congress to approve for Kyiv.
In addition to Ukraine aid, the roughly $113bn held up in the Senate includes $14bn in Israel military aid, $3bn for the U.S. submarine industrial base, $2bn in Foreign Military Financing for Indo-Pacific partners, including Taiwan, and funding for the U.S. southern border. (Source: Defense News)
18 Dec 23. First UK Trade Mission to Kyiv Boosts Defence Cooperation.
UK Government and UK defence industry conduct their first trade mission to Ukraine.
• UK Government and UK defence industry conduct their first trade mission to Ukraine.
• Agreements between UK and Ukrainian companies will enhance resilient defence industrial facilities inside Ukraine.
• Annual UK-Ukraine goods and services trade amounts to £1.5 bn.
Ukraine’s defences and UK-Ukraine trade links have been strengthened by a UK Government-led trade mission to the country.
Led by the Department for Business and Trade and Ministry of Defence, the joint trade mission took place on 13-14 December and built on the UK’s sustained and continuous support to Ukraine’s defence since Putin’s invasion in 2014.
Meetings in Kyiv followed discussions at the Defence and Security Equipment International (DSEI) exhibition in London in September regarding potential partnerships between UK and Ukraine defence and security companies.
Opened by Ukrainian Defence Minster Umerov, the trade mission brought together UK and Ukrainian government officials with key stakeholders from UK and Ukrainian industry to discuss opportunities for long-term cooperation.
Following meetings between the UK defence companies and the Ukrainian Government, agreements have been signed, including:
• Babcock being awarded a three-year contract by the Ukraine Ministry of Defence to support and maintain two mine countermeasures vessels ‘Cherkasy’ and ‘Chernihiv’ for the Navy of Ukraine, following their transfer from the UK Royal Navy. This follows the establishment of Babcock Ukraine, with the opening of an office in-country where a dedicated team will focus on supporting Ukraine and industry partners.
• BAE Systems and AMS Integrated Solutions Ltd signed an agreement that will enable them to offer specialised artillery systems support directly to Ukrainian Armed Forces in Ukraine. Under the agreement, artillery systems donated by the UK Government could be repaired and maintained in AMS’ existing maintenance centres in Ukraine, where it employs Ukrainian engineers.
• Thales signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Ukrainian Unmanned Aerial Systems business, Aerodrone, which will bring together the best of Ukrainian and Northern Irish engineering to deliver new capability for Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
Ukraine has the facilities, pedigree, people, and skills to produce high quality military hardware, and has a clear interest in establishing partnerships with Western defence companies to rebuild its defence industrial base and help Ukraine win the war.
More widely, total trade in goods and services between the UK and Ukraine amounted to £1.5 bn in the four quarters to the end of Q2 2023. Increasing trade will create jobs in both our countries and help sustain Ukraine’s recovery and resilience.
Minister for Defence Procurement, James Cartlidge said: “This successful UK trade mission is another pillar in our unwavering support to Ukraine as they regain their territory. The UK Government and UK industry will continue to work hand-in-glove with our Ukrainian allies, seizing opportunities for collaboration and bolstering our defence industries.”
Industry Minister, Nusrat Ghani said: “As Minister for Ukraine Reconstruction, I know the significant opportunity for greater collaboration between our world-class defence sector and Ukraine, and I’m delighted to see our first trade mission to Kyiv completed as we help Ukraine develop defence production capacity of its own. A financially robust and technologically advanced Ukraine will be vital for victory against Putin and his illegal invasion of the country, and by building these partnerships with industry we’re sharing expertise, building resilience and boosting jobs, investment and prosperity. This trade mission sought to strengthen ties with UK industry, and support Ukrainian ambition to become the Arsenal of the Free World.”
Mark Goldsack, Director of UK Defence and Security Exports said: “Despite Putin’s barbaric invasion, Ukraine remains resilient, optimistic, and focused on victory. The UK’s first trade delegation to Kyiv saw the energetic desire from all parties to help Ukraine take back their land. With agreements already signed with our defence industry, the work will help boost resilience for both our industrial bases for years to come.”
Andy Start, DE&S CEO and UK National Armaments Director said: “UK Defence Industry has supported Ukraine from the start of the war and delivered world-class defence equipment. Developing strong partnerships with Ukraine’s substantial defence industry, will allow the sharing of substantial knowledge gained in combat conditions. Together we can increase collective capacity to deliver the mission winning defence systems we all need.”
The businesses that attended the trade mission included BAE Systems, Babcock, Thales, AMS Global, and KBR. There will be opportunity for other UK defence companies to attend future trade missions in 2024.
(Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
17 Dec 23. Ukraine may lose war in summer if military aid from America and EU comes to end, US official says.
‘They are certain to fail without us,’ says source amid fears of a Russian victory that would be a ‘disaster’ for European security
Ukraine faces defeat as early as next summer if American and Nato military aid dries up, a senior US official has warned.
Vladimir Putin’s chances of victory have been buoyed by war fatigue and blocks on funding in both America and the EU.
“There is no guarantee of success with us, but they are certain to fail without us,” a senior US military source told CNN.
Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister, last week blocked a £43 bn EU aid package for Ukraine.
Austria had also threatened to block the bill until Kyiv toned down criticism of an Austrian bank still working in Russia.
Western planners working on ‘worst-case scenario’
In the US, the Senate has held up a £48bn military support bill for Ukraine and polls have shown that most Americans think that the US government is overspending in Ukraine.
Western military planners are now working on a “worst-case scenario” of Ukraine without aid being defeated by Russia within a few months, according to CNN which a source described as a “disaster” for European security.
“I don’t think people fully realise what Ukraine’s fall would actually mean. We would see horrible things: ethnic cleansing and the total destruction of Ukraine,” CNN quoted an unnamed European diplomat as saying.
With support slipping, Volodymyr Zelensky has been touring Western capitals and Joe Biden has warned that disinterest in Ukraine risks giving Putin an early “Christmas present”.
But weapons and kit are already in short supply in Ukraine and analysts have estimated that Kyiv will soon run out of air defence missiles, anti-aircraft missiles and shoulder-mounted missiles if Western aid drops.
The EU has also admitted that it is only able to supply Ukraine with around a third of the artillery shells that it had initially promised.
Reports from the front line of ammunition rationing have also increased.
Around Avdiivka, the focus of Russian attacks in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, Soviet-designed Ukrainian transport helicopters converted to carry air-to-ground missiles are only deployed if Russian forces attack with vehicles.
A counter-offensive that soon stalled
Infantry attacks go unharassed because of a lack of supplies.
Ukraine launched its counter-offensive in May but it soon stalled after running into stronger-than-expected Russian trench systems and densely sown minefields.
Ukrainian forces that have taken ground from Russia and secured footholds in the villages of Robotyne, in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya region, and Krynky, on the left bank of the Dnipro River 20 miles upstream from the city of Kherson, have found themselves surrounded and pounded by artillery.
The New York Times interviewed Ukrainian marines, some trained by the British military, who have been trying to secure Krynky, a collection of fishermen’s houses, for the past couple of months. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
————————————————————————-
Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need. A CNIM Group Company
————————————————————————-