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Dec 08.
* CASUALTIES: Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Ground Forces Command Volodymyr Fityo claimed on 1 December that Russian forces ‘lost’ almost 11,000 military personnel across the Oskil-Kreminna and Bakhmut sectors in November. While he did not specify whether this number was those killed and/or wounded, the rate of casualties remains very high. The figure also notably does not include casualties taken around Avdiivka – the principal Russian offensive effort where casualty rates are likely to currently be the highest of any frontline. While the Ukrainian numbers cannot be confirmed, if they are accurate they indicate that the Russian high command believes that they can sustain these high casualty rates. This in turn indicates that appropriate Russian replacements are being found to maintain combat operations through crypto-mobilisation.
* BAKHMUT: Russian sources continued to report on 7-8 December that Russian attacks to the north-west of Bakhmut are making steady progress, though the extent to which remains unconfirmed. Russian sources claim their forces have now reached the eastern outskirts of the village of Bohdanivka, located four miles (6km) west of Bakhmut, as part of wider operations to expand their control of the area around the nearby reservoir. However, as has been the case in recent weeks, there is limited visual evidence to confirm these advances at present.
* DONETSK: Nothing significant to report
* KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
* SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
* OSKIL-KREMINNA: A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have continued to advance in the Synkivka area, located around five miles (8km) north-east of Kupiansk. Such claims remain visually unconfirmed, with the frontline in the Oskil-Kreminna sector having remained static over the past few days.
* STRIKES: Early on 8 November, Russia launched a large-scale missile strike against Ukraine, the first such cruise missile strike in 79 days, according to the head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, Serhiy Popko. The attack included 19 Kh-101/Kh-555 air-launched cruise missiles. Ukraine’s air defences intercepted 14 missiles over Dnipropetrovsk and Kyiv oblasts. Local authorities reported that projectiles damaged an industrial facility, power lines and residential buildings in Pavlohrad and Synelnyk districts located in Dnipropetrovsk. All the projectiles targeting Kyiv were reportedly intercepted, but falling debris reportedly damaged residential buildings. Moscow has mainly been using drone attacks lately while stockpiling missiles over the past months, with the aim to systematically attack energy infrastructure at the onset of the heating season. Separately, Ukrainian air defences destroyed five of the eight Shahed-136/131 drones launched by Russia overnight on 7-8 December.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
* ENERGY: On 7 December, Ukrainian state grid operator Ukrenergo announced that it had used emergency assistance from European operators to offset an electricity shortage. Ukrenergo said it sought assistance from the operators of the electricity transmission system in Poland, Romania and Slovakia from 1100-1900hrs. It said that consumption had increased significantly due to cold weather and that the likelihood of power plants being able to ramp up electricity production were limited. Ukrenergo also advised consumers on several methods to reduce energy consumption. Ukraine’s energy security will highly likely continue to face strains this winter due to poor weather conditions and Russian strikes against energy facilities, increasing the risk of periodic blackouts across affected regions.
* SUPPLY CHAINS: Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) announced on 7 December that it had started the transportation of 23 trucks via rail that have been stuck at the Polish border due to the ongoing partial blockade by Polish hauliers. The company’s deputy director of commercial work, Valeriy Tkachov, said this initial load was a test to determine the feasibility of scaling up train transport before launching the scheme en masse. If successful, this will likely partially aid in bypassing the ongoing blockade and moderately reduce supply chain pressures.
* SUPPLY CHAINS: Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry reported on 7 December that Ukrzaliznytsia transported 14 million tonnes of cargo throughout November – a 33.8% increase from the same period last year. This reportedly includes deliveries within Ukraine and abroad. The ministry reported that Ukraine exported 2.4 million metric tonnes of grain last month, which is 13% more than in the same period of 2022 and 40.4% more than in October 2023. As such, the increase underscores the growing capacity of Ukraine’s railways to import and export products, which will support increased production and supply chain resiliency.
* IRAN: Russian President Vladimir Putin met with his Iranian counterpart on 7 December in Moscow. Putin stated that trade between the two countries grew by 20% in 2022 and reached over USD 5 billion. The Russian president said Iran and Russia are currently undertaking large infrastructure projects, adding they are constructing a railway line along an unspecified section of the North-South Corridor – a planned route that would connect Russia to the Indian Ocean via Iran. Putin also noted that Moscow and Tehran plan to sign an agreement on the creation of a free trade zone between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in late December. Ultimately, the meeting underscores Russia’s growing efforts to bolster relations with Iran to further economic and defence ties, and comes immediately after Putin’s visit to the UAE and Saudi Arabia during which he sought to reinforce wider ties to the Gulf states.
* NATIONALISATION: On 6 December, Russia’s State Duma adopted a law reinforcing the President’s de-facto nationalisation powers regarding foreign-owned assets. Over the past year, the Kremlin issued several presidential decrees authorising the state to take over the management of Russian subsidiaries of foreign companies. Such measures were likely part of the Kremlin’s persistent efforts to deter foreign companies from exiting the Russian market. The recently passed bill formalises such powers, categorising them as ensuring ‘economic sovereignty’ and ‘economic security’. The law posits that the state will be allowed to ‘temporarily’ manage designated foreign-owned assets and does not include any mention of nationalisation. However, the bill’s adoption will most likely result in the Kremlin continuing to order the de-facto nationalisation of Western-owned subsidiaries in retaliation to joint European and US efforts to appropriate frozen Russian assets for the reconstruction of Ukraine and efforts by companies to leave the Russian market.
FORECAST
GAS: The Financial Times (FT) reported on 8 December that the EU is posed to give member states the authority to end gas imports from Belarus and Russia. According to a draft legal text proposed by the bloc, any member state will be able to block Belarusian and Russian companies from buying capacity in its gas pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals. EU member states would be permitted to partially, or, where justified, completely limit access to infrastructure to gas operators from Russia and Belarus to protect their security interests. The proposal could realistically provide grounds for EU energy companies to exit contracts with Russian gas providers without having to pay significant compensation.
Negotiators from member states and the European Parliament are expected to approve the draft today (8 December). However, the final version must still be formally approved by the Parliament and member states. Russia supplied about 12% of the EU’s total gas imports in Q3 2023. Several member states, such as Austria and Hungary, still rely heavily on Russian gas supplies. As such, granting member states the power to decide themselves to halt Russian gas deliveries could realistically help reduce internal divisions, though it would still allow Russia an opportunity to profit off of its energy revenues.
*US: DOD requests weapons aid for Ukraine, underscoring policy stagnation over foreign aid bill. On 7 December, the US Army’s senior official responsible for acquisition and logistics announced the Department of Defense (DOD) would be requesting that Congress approve spending USD 1 billion to replace weapons sent to Ukraine. This funding is part of the ‘presidential drawdown account’, which replenishes US weapons stockpiles. The DOD request is in response to Congress’ earlier rejection of the Biden administration’s proposal to provide USD 61.4 billion in foreign aid. Congress has 15 days to respond to the request, which is likely to gain approval. However, approving this request will not indicate a decreased risk of policy stagnation regarding the larger foreign aid bill. There is still a heightened risk of policy stagnation in the short-to-medium term, amid heightened partisanship over attached border security proposals to the foreign aid bill. Further stalling of the foreign aid bill, and an empty drawdown account, will risk US interests in the Russia-Ukraine war and strain bilateral relations with Ukraine in the long term.
Dec 07.
* BAKHMUT: Russian sources have continued to report over the last 24-48 hours that their forces are making steady progress at the flanks of Bakhmut, though there remains limited visual confirmation at present. Russian milbloggers reported on 6 December that Russian forces gained the initiative around Bakhmut a week ago and are attacking in three key directions: north-west of Bakhmut around the Berkhivka Reservoir, located two miles (3km) north-west of Bakhmut; Khromove, on the western outskirts of the town; and Klishchiivka, located six miles (10km) south-west of Bakhmut. However, the extent of recent Russian advances remains unclear at present.
* DONETSK: Earlier on 7 December, Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun stated that Russian forces intensified offensive operations in the Avdiivka and Marinka sectors. Shtupun claimed that over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces repelled around 34 attacks in the Avdiivka sector. Meanwhile, geolocated footage from 6 December indicates that Russian troops made limited progress in the industrial zone south-east of Avdiivka. On 7 December, a Russian milblogger said that intense fighting is taking place in Stepove, where Ukrainian forces advanced according to geolocated footage from 5 December. Stepove is located three miles (5km) north-west of Avdiivka.
* KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
* SOUTHERN: Russian sources have claimed that on 5 December Russian forces advanced up to 0.6 miles (1km) near Verbove, located six miles (10km) east of Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast), though this remains unconfirmed. Russian forces are continuing to counter-attack along the southern Zaporizhzhia front, which together with Russia’s fixed defences in the region, are seemingly containing Ukrainian advances.
* OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 6 and 7 December, Russian milbloggers reported that Russian forces have continued to launch assaults in Petropavlivka and Synkivka, located around five miles (8km) north-east of Kupiansk. The milbloggers said that Ukraine is sending reinforcements to the Kupiansk sector, where its forces are struggling to hold positions. However, at present the frontline remains broadly static, with limited confirmed Russian advances.
* STRIKES: Overnight on 6-7 December, Ukrainian forces intercepted 15 out of 18 Shahed-136/131 drones launched by Russia. The attack targeted Khmelnytskyi and Odesa oblasts. Local sources reported explosions in Khmelnytskyi oblast. Odesa governor Oleh Kiper reported that the attack destroyed grain storage facilities in Ukraine’s Danube port of Izmail. Since Moscow withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) in July, Russian forces have systematically targeted port and grain infrastructure.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
* ELECTIONS: Russia’s upper chamber of parliament, the Federation Council, voted unanimously on 7 December to set the date of the presidential election for 17 March 2024. It will be held over three days (15-17 March). Valentina Matviyenko, the head of the Federation Council, said the decision effectively launches the start of the election campaign. President Vladimir Putin is likely to announce his bid for re-election in the near term.
* ELECTIONS: Russia’s Central Election Commission said a decision to hold elections in the Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine will be made by 12 December after consultations with the relevant departments and authorities. However, Matviyenko has said the vote will go ahead in the Russian-annexed Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Although Russia does not fully control these regions, the vote will likely go ahead despite security risks in an attempt by Moscow to legitimise its control over them.
* ASSASSINATIONS: On 6 December, international news outlets reported that a former pro-Russia Ukrainian lawmaker who defected to Russia, Illia Kyva, was found dead in Moscow oblast. Ukrainian media reported, citing their sources in law enforcement, that he was assassinated during a special operation conducted by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU). It remains unclear precisely how the assassination was conducted.
* ASSASSINATIONS: A Russian Senator, Konstantin Kosachev, said on 7 December that committees of Russia’s Federation Council have been instructed to prepare proposals to protect political and public figures from Ukrainian attacks after Kyva’s death. While the SBU’s involvement cannot be officially confirmed, it is highly credible given Kyiv has both the intent and capability to conduct such operations within Russia. Further high-profile assassination attempts are highly likely in the coming months.
* SANCTIONS: On 6 December, leaders of the G7 countries agreed to impose a direct import ban on Russian diamonds starting in January 2024. On the same day, Canada announced it will also ban direct imports of Russian diamonds. Russian diamond exports account for 8.3% of global diamond exports, reaching USD 3.8bn in 2022. As such, the G7 announcement underscores the West’s efforts to curtail Moscow’s commodity export revenues and, more broadly, hamper its ability to finance its war in Ukraine.
* RECRUITMENT: On 6 December, the BBC reported that Russia has been arresting migrants attempting to cross the border with Finland and trying to enrol them in its military forces forcefully. A BBC article from 6 December reported the Nepalese police arrested ten individuals recruiting Nepalese citizens for Russia’s military. Due to the highly attritional nature of the war in Ukraine, Moscow will continue to try to recruit foreigners and resort to crypto-mobilisation strategies, disproportionately targeting migrants and ethnic minorities in Russia.
FORECAST
AID: On 6 December, US Senate Republicans blocked an emergency spending bill worth USD 110.5bn for new security assistance for Ukraine and Israel due to their demands for tougher border measures. The bill gained 49 votes in favour and 51 against, falling short of the 60 votes necessary for a debate in the Senate. All Republicans in the Senate voted against the measure. Senate Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer, stated that he voted against it so that he could re-introduce the measure in the future.
While this marks a notable blow to the Biden administration’s timeline to aid Ukraine, some lawmakers are reportedly considering upcoming government funding deadlines in January and February as potential opportunities to strike a deal. However, there are growing concerns in Kyiv and the Biden administration that entrenched scepticism over continuing to aid Ukraine among many Republicans could significantly undermine Ukraine’s ability to sustain its war effort in the short-to-medium term. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy assesses that the volume of new aid promised to Kyiv between August and October fell to the lowest figure since January 2022 – a month before the full-scale invasion. This underscores the growing stakes for Ukraine and the Biden administration in securing this latest round of military assistance; Ukraine’s 2024 military strategy will remain heavily dependent upon the level of US military support provided.
Following the failed vote, US President Joe Biden said that it would be ‘long remembered’, adding that any disruption in the US’ ability to supply Ukraine benefits Russia. Biden said hardline Republicans are holding funding for Kyiv hostage to their ‘extreme partisan’ border policies. However, he also indicated willingness to ‘make significant compromises on the border’ if that is what is required to get the package through Congress. Such a compromise will increase the likelihood of some USD 60 bn in aid to Ukraine passing in early 2024, but persistent Ukraine scepticism among Republicans will sustain the risk of further delays.
The Biden administration continues to demonstrate its long-term commitment to Ukraine despite the ongoing budgetary issues. The US announced on 6 December a USD 175 m defence package for Ukraine under previously directed drawdowns. However, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it would be one of the last military aid packages for Kyiv if Congress fails to pass additional funding. It includes air defence munitions, additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rockets Systems (HIMARS) and artillery ammunition, among other elements.
The White House also announced further plans to strengthen defence co-operation and co-production with Ukraine. While this will likely be a longer-term initiative, it will assist Ukraine in building a more self-reliant defence industrial base. Although Ukraine will remain reliant on Western aid for the foreseeable future, it will enhance resiliency in the long term amid disputes over sustaining the flow of assistance.
Dec 06.
* BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
* DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 5 December indicates that Russian forces progressed along the section of the railway line north of the Avdiivka Coke Plant in north-west Avdiivka. At the same time, a Ukrainian military reporter claimed that Ukrainian forces counter-attacked north of the Avdiivka Coke Plant and dislodged Russian forces from two positions. Geolocated footage from 4 December indicates that Ukrainian troops advanced east of the section of the railway line north of the Avdiivka Coke Plant. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that as of 5 December, Russian forces expanded their control around the Avdiivka Coke Plant.
* DONETSK: Meanwhile, on 6 December, the spokesperson of Ukraine’s 79th Air Assault Brigade, Yaroslav Chepurnyi, said that Ukrainian forces hold a small portion of Marinka, with most of the city under Russian control. Chepurnyi stressed that on the morning of 6 December, Russian forces have increased shelling and air strikes against Ukrainian positions. According to the Ukrainian military official, the city is in ruins as a result of the intense fighting.
* KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
* SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
* OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
* STRIKES: Overnight on 5-6 December, Russia launched a large-scale drone strike, involving 48 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukraine’s air defences reportedly shot down 41 drones. The strikes targeted Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
* STRIKES: The latest Russian strike underscores Moscow’s growing drone capabilities and efforts to innovate. On 6 December, the UK Defence Intelligence (DI) reported that since mid-2023, Russia has most likely increased its stocks of Iranian-supplied Shahed drones and ramped up domestic production of similar drones. The UK DI further stressed that Moscow has almost certainly been including improvements to its drones based on operational experience. Such improvements include using SIM cards and 4G modems to improve real-time guidance by using cell towers and reducing reliance on satellite navigation. Other modifications also include painting drones in black to make them harder to identify at night visually.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
* ESPIONAGE: On 5 December, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller disclosed that Russia rejected a recent ‘significant proposal’ to secure the release of two detained US citizens. Miller said Washington DC had offered the deal with the attempt to free Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reporter Evan Gershkovich and former US Marine Paul Whelan, but did not provide specific details on the proposal. However, he noted that the State Department has pressed the importance of this case through a number of channels and made a number of proposals that have ultimately been unsuccessful.
* ESPIONAGE: Whelan was arrested by the Russian authorities in 2018; he was convicted of espionage in 2020 and jailed for 16 years. Whelan and the US government have denied that he is a spy. Ultimately, there is a realistic-to-likely possibility the Russian authorities are refusing to release the two men to use them as potential bargaining chips and/or to deter other Western citizens from conducting perceived espionage activities within Russia. The risk of arbitrary detention for foreign citizens (particularly those from the UK and US) will remain high in the medium-to-long term.
* ELECTIONS: On 7 December, Russia’s upper house of parliament, the Federation Council, will consider a resolution setting the date for the Russian presidential elections for 17 March 2024. Senator Andrei Klishas said this date marks the beginning of the period during which the Federation Council can call for the holding of presidential elections.
* ELECTIONS: Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold his annual end-of-year press conference and televised call-in show on 14 December in a combined format. Putin has not yet officially announced his candidacy for the presidential elections but he could realistically announce his bid to run on this date or ahead of it. The Kremlin is likely to use the event to outline what issues Putin will seek to prioritise during a subsequent term in office. For further analysis on the 2024 Russian presidential election, please see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 30 August 2023.
* RECRUITMENT: On 6 December, the BBC reported that Nepal’s police detained ten individuals in Kathmandu for recruiting Nepalese citizens for the Russian armed forces. According to police, the recruits were allegedly sent to Russia on tourist visas via the UAE. On 5 December, the BBC reported that six Nepalese citizens died in Ukraine fighting for Russia since the beginning of the war. The report claimed that the Nepalese recruits were promised money and simplified Russian citizenship.
* RECRUITMENT: On 5 December, the BBC reported that it has evidence that 254 foreign citizens died fighting for Russia in the war in Ukraine, including from Nepal, Cuba and Somalia. Reports have also indicated that Moscow’s military efforts have been disproportionately targeting Central Asian migrants in Russia. Russia’s recruitment of foreign nationals reflects Moscow’s crypto-mobilisation strategy aiming to satisfy its growing needs for combatants to continue its highly attritional war while avoiding a new wave of mobilisation.
FORECAST
AID: Some US Republican Senators reportedly stormed out of a classified briefing on 5 December addressing the White House’s request for aid for Israel and Ukraine. The closed-door briefing was led by the US secretaries of defence, state, as well as the director of national intelligence and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff. Although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was expected to join virtually to make an appeal for additional aid, he did not attend due to ‘something’ happening last-minute.
Senators from both parties told news outlets that the briefing collapsed after Republicans began pressing about border issues. Republican Senator Kevin Cramer said people left because they considered it to be a ‘waste of time’. Another Republican Senator, Josh Hawley, claimed it was the most heated briefing in the sensitive compartmented information facility (SCIF) to date. The faltered briefing underscores the importance of firmly addressing border security issues for Republicans.
US President Joe Biden said on 5 December that the prospect of allowing aid to lapse is ‘just wrong’. Biden said that the failure to support Ukraine is against the US’ interests and vowed that his administration will secure funding for Kyiv. However, intra-governmental tensions and divisions over whether to continue aiding Ukraine will likely continue to represent significant barriers for the provision of assistance in the coming months.
The Senate is expected to hold a procedural vote later today (6 December) on a national security package, though the fractious briefing has likely lowered the prospect of it passing in the near term. Democrats in the US Senate unveiled the package, which is worth about USD 111bn, on 5 December; it provides more than USD 15 bn in support for Ukraine, including military training and intelligence data sharing, among other elements. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, despite being in favour of continuing to arm Ukraine, has urged Republicans to vote against moving on the national security package to emphasise that Republicans insist on meaningful changes to border security. However, there is also a realistic possibility that the urgency of the matter and repercussions of not passing the package could result in it being passed.
Dec 05.
• BAKHMUT: Russian sources have continued to claim incremental advances to the north-west, west and south-west of Bakhmut over the last 24 hours, though there remains limited evidence to confirm the extent of Russia’s progress. It is clear that Russian forces are increasing the intensity of their attacks across a broad front, with incremental gains amid fierce fighting around Bakhmut and Klishchiivka in particular, about six miles (10km) south-west of Bakhmut.
• DONETSK: On 5 December, the UK Defence Intelligence (DI) stated that Russian forces have made ‘creeping advances’ through the ruins of Marinka over the past few weeks. Russia likely controls most of the built-up area, located roughly 12 miles (20km) south-west of Donetsk city. According to the UK DI, Russian offensive operations in the Marinka are part of Moscow’s autumn offensive efforts aimed at broadening Russian control over the remaining parts of Donetsk oblast. Meanwhile, further to the north-east along this axis, geolocated footage from December 4 shows Russian forces advancing near the reservoir area directly north of Avdiivka. Additional footage indicated Russian forces progressed within Stepove, three miles (5km) north-west of Avdiivka.
• KHERSON: Geolocated footage in recent days indicates that Ukrainian forces have established a small foothold on Bilohrudnyi island and are attacking the village of Bilohrudove, seven miles (11km) south-west of Kherson city. Ukrainian forces have been undertaking various island hopping operations in recent months, with many remaining highly contested and presenting both sides with difficult operating conditions. Further east, heavy fighting continues to take place around the key Ukrainian beachhead near Krynky, located 22 miles (36km) north-east of Kherson city, though Ukrainian attempts to expand its position on the left bank are seemingly being contained.
• SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
• STRIKES: Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that air defences intercepted 41 drones over Crimea and the Sea of Azov overnight on 4-5 December. The strike targeted eastern Crimea and forced Russian authorities to close the Kerch Strait Bridge temporarily. A prominent Russian milblogger reported that the drones targeted an oil facility near Feodosia and the Chauda Cape in the southern part of the Kerch peninsula in Crimea. The milblogger said the strike was likely an attempt to probe Russian air defences in the Crimean peninsula in preparation for a strike which would include missiles. He claimed that Ukraine recently received a batch of Shadow-Scalp missiles in Starokostyantyniv (Khmelnytskyi oblast) – the location of the main Ukrainian air base for Shadow Storm cruise missile carriers.
• STRIKES: Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Air Force stated that Russia launched 17 Shahed-136/131 drones and six S-300 anti-aircraft missiles in the last 24 hours. The attack targeted regions in Western Ukraine, including Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv and Ternopil oblasts. Ukraine’s air defences intercepted ten drones. According to local authorities, the strike damaged infrastructure facilities in Lviv oblast.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• SECURITY: Ukraine’s presidential office announced on 4 December that Kyiv has begun the first round of negotiations with the EU on security commitments. Ukrainian Deputy Presidential Office head, Ihor Zhovkva, met with Charles Fries, the Deputy Secretary General for Peace, Security and Defence of the European External Action Service. The consultations followed up on the G7’s joint declaration to provide Ukraine long-term security guarantees (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 13 July 2023). The parties exchanged views on approaches to future security commitments from the bloc, focusing on security and defence. Although no further specifics were provided, the consultations underscore the EU’s efforts to provide long-term security assurances to Kyiv.
• DESTABILISATION: Finnish media reported on 4 December that Russia planned to disrupt Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO. According to a secret intelligence report, an unspecified Russian intelligence service highlighted that demonstrations in Sweden following Quran-burning incidents increased the fear of radical Islam in EU countries. Russian intelligence operatives allegedly called for ethno-religious tensions to be fuelled further (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 17 July 2023). The alleged goal was to increase friction between Turkey, European and NATO member states. Finland’s Security Intelligence Service (SUPO) confirmed it was aware of the Russian intelligence service’s efforts to incite demonstrations in Finland, though the report did not indicate whether any plans were successful.
• DESTABILISATION: The report allegedly listed different methods which Russian intelligence services used within Europe. Among these were plans for protests mocking Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an across major European cities. The report allegedly mentions using as much anti-Islam and anti-Erdo?an graffiti as possible in well-known public spaces and spreading the protests on social media. While the veracity of the report cannot be confirmed, the allegations are plausible. Stockholm is still waiting on Ankara to ratify its bid to join the military alliance. As such, there is a realistic possibility Russia could re-ignite efforts to stall Sweden’s accession in the coming weeks.
• DIPLOMACY: Russian President Vladimir Putin will make a rare official visit abroad on 6 December to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov disclosed on 4 December that Putin will travel to these countries for negotiations, including with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman. The Israel-Hamas conflict, oil and bilateral relations are expected to feature during the negotiations. Meanwhile, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will travel to the Russian capital, Moscow, on 7 December to meet Putin.
• DIPLOMACY: Putin’s political engagements with Middle Eastern countries likely underscore Russia’s growing efforts to strengthen relations with such states and the Global South more broadly. The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have sought to play an important role in future peace negotiations with Ukraine, and the states have already facilitated various deals, including prisoner swaps. With Russia retaining a presence in Syria and the growing Iranian-Russian alliance, the Middle East remains a priority region for Russia, particularly as it seeks to exploit the Israel-Hamas war to gain favour amongst Muslim states in the region.
FORECAS
AID: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to address US senators later today (5 December) during a classified briefing as the White House pushes Congress to approve the White House’s nearly USD 106 bn Ukraine funding request. Despite US President Joe Biden issuing the request, which includes aid for Ukraine, Israel and other priorities almost two months ago, it has been stalled.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Zelensky had been invited to attend so senators can hear directly ‘what is at stake’ if further assistance for Kyiv is not approved. The US secretaries of defence, state and other national security officials are also expected to speak at the briefing. On 4 December, Schumer declared that the supplemental funding request could determine the long-term trajectory of democracy, claiming that the US is at a pivotal moment in history
Despite these attempts to rally senators to approve the request, it still risks being delayed further or not passed. Republicans have allegedly emphasised that Ukraine aid is conditional on ‘serious policy changes’ relating to border security. Bipartisan negotiations on 1 December on border policy collapsed, according to media reports on 4 December. Democrats reportedly acknowledge that Republicans are unwilling or unable to compromise on a reasonable proposal that can be passed. As such, divisions between the two parties are likely to continue to pose an obstacle for aiding Kyiv in the short-to-medium term.
Although there is no hard deadline for lawmakers to pass the supplemental bill, White House budget director Shalanda Young has called on Congress to approve the foreign aid funding quickly. On 4 December, Young said the US will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from US military stocks by the end of the year without congressional action. Young said Washington DC’s aid packages have already become smaller, with deliveries more limited. Smaller and less frequent aid packages will likely risk undermining Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting Russia in the coming months. For further analysis on US citizens’ perceptions on assistance for Ukraine, please see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 3 November 2023.
Dec 04.
• BAKHMUT: Ukrainian Ground Forces command spokesperson Volodymyr Fityo stated on 1 December that Russian forces have stepped up offensive operations across the entire eastern frontline, including around Bakhmut. Various Russian, and some Ukrainian sources, have in recent days reported that Russian forces are making marginal advances at various points to the north, west and south of Bakhmut, though there is still limited visual evidence to confirm this. Fighting remains heavy at various points, including near Khromove, located on the western outskirts of Bakhmut, as well as further south near Klishchiivka and Andriivka, located about six miles (10km) south-west of Bakhmut.
• BAKHMUT: Fityo also reported that while the weather is not significantly affecting the rate of Russian artillery fire on the Bakhmut front, strong winds are limiting their use of drones and aviation support. Meanwhile, both Russian and Ukrainian sources have reported over the last 48-72 hours that rain has severely limited the use of wheeled vehicles on all fronts, meaning both sides are broadly reliant upon dismounted infantry and tracked vehicles to attack.
• DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 2 December indicates that Russian forces have made marginal gains south of Stepove and south-west of Pervomaiske, located 1.8 miles (3km) north-west of Avdiivka and 6 miles (10km) south-west, respectively. These minor advances are on trend with the overall Russian offensive effort at Avdiivka in recent weeks, whereby Russia achieves creeping territorial gains at the expense of heavy personnel and equipment losses. In addition to these losses, poor weather conditions are slowing the pace of the Russian offensive.
• DONETSK: The largely-destroyed settlement of Marinka on the western outskirts of Donetsk city almost certainly remains contested, despite claims by some Russian milbloggers on 1 December that it had been captured. Numerous other Russian milbloggers directly contradicted these claims. Additionally, Tavriisk Group of Forces spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun noted on 3 December that fighting at the settlement continues; the Ukrainian General Staff reported earlier today, 4 December, that Ukrainian forces repelled attacks near Marinka.
• KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
• SOUTHERN: The commander of Ukraine’s Tavriisk group of forces, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, reported on 3 December that Russia has intensified infantry operations on the south-eastern front in recent days. However, the overall pace of operations across southern Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts remained broadly on-trend over the weekend of 2-3 December, with both sides continuing limited offensive and counter-offensive operations. Despite some isolated reports of Russian advances near Verbove, located six miles (10km) east of Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast), there have been no confirmed advances.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Geolocated footage from 2 December indicates that Ukrainian forces made marginal advances west of Dibrova, located around four miles (7km) south-west of Kreminna (Luhansk oblast). However, this remains a limited advance, and more broadly the Russians are on the offensive across the east, with Russian sources claiming various modest advances along the Oskil-Kreminna line in recent days. However, there is limited to no evidence to confirm these advances at present.
• STRIKES: On 2 December, Russian forces launched 11 Shahed 131-136 drones and one Kh-59 cruise missile. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 10 drones and the cruise missile were intercepted. The regional authorities in Odesa reported that the single drone which was not intercepted struck an ‘infrastructure object’ but did not specify precisely what type. There were reportedly no casualties or injuries.
• STRIKES: Overnight on 3 December, Russian forces fired 12 Shahed 131-136 drones and one Kh-59 cruise missile towards Ukraine’s southern oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 10 drones were intercepted, mostly in Mykolaiv oblast but also in Khmelnytskyi oblast. No details were given on the other two drones, nor the cruise missile, though it reportedly failed to reach its target.
• STRIKES: Russian forces conducted a larger strike campaign overnight on 3-4 December, launching 18 Shahed 131-136 drones and one Kh-59 cruise missile. Despite this, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that all 19 projectiles were intercepted. The regional authorities in the western Ivano-Frankivsk oblast reported that drones had targeted energy infrastructure facilities in the region, and that no significant damage or casualties were reported.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• BORDERS: Earlier on 4 December, Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service (DPSU) reported that border guards cleared 30 heavy vehicles for departure from Ukraine via the Uhryniv-Do?hobyczów checkpoint on the Ukrainian-Polish border. The DPSU stated that the crossing was opened for empty trucks at 0100hrs (local time) on 4 December. Ukraine’s Reconstruction Ministry and Poland’s Infrastructure Ministry agreed on 1 December to open the checkpoint to reduce pressure on other checkpoints along the border.
• BORDERS: On 4 December, Ukraine’s ambassador to Poland, Vasyl Zvarych, said negotiations between the two countries are ongoing and that certain compromises have been found. Although this indicates that both sides are able to reach compromises, it is unlikely that the border will be fully unblocked in the coming days. However, the opening of the checkpoint will modestly aid in increasing capacity along the Polish-Ukrainian border, where four checkpoints are currently blocked; supply chain disruption will likely persist as the protests continue.
• AID: On 3 December, international media reported that internal divisions over finances within the EU threaten the provision of EUR 50 bn in assistance for Ukraine. EU member states are reportedly far from reaching a deal to top up the bloc’s joint budget, which includes assistance for Kyiv, ahead of a summit on 14-15 December in Brussels (Belgium). On 20 June, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed the bloc give Ukraine EUR 50 bn in aid to keep the country solvent through 2024 until 2027.
• AID: An unspecified senior official claimed that a budget agreement would be extremely difficult to reach. However, other officials said negotiations over the budget were always likely to be challenging and that a compromise is possible; a revised package is also expected to be proposed before the summit. It is uncertain whether this would result in Kyiv receiving a reduced aid package, though internal disputes within the EU will likely continue to delay or undermine the provision of assistance for Ukraine in the long term.
• AID: The CEO of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger, said on 2 December that the firm wants to build the first armoured vehicles in Ukraine as soon as 2024. Papperger said the first Fuchs armoured personnel carriers (APCs) could be produced in Ukraine from late summer in 2024. Meanwhile, the first Lynx armoured fighting vehicles could be built in the country by 2025.
• AID: Papperger said he is not concerned about the security of factories in Ukraine as Rheinmetall will be renting existing plants that appear to be well protected. However, the threat of Russian strikes against such facilities will remain. The domestic production of such capabilities would represent modest steps towards enhancing Ukraine’s defensive self-sufficiency and resiliency, but Ukraine will remain disproportionately reliant upon Western aid despite efforts to increase defence-industrial output.
• MOBILISATION: On 1 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree nominally increasing the maximum number of servicemen in the country’s armed forces by 170,000. Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) said the increase is due to the recruitment of contract personnel and that there are no plans to significantly increase conscription or call for another wave of mobilisation. As such, the decree is likely a recognition of the Russian military’s current official strength, rather than an immediate order to bolster the number of troops. This indicates that Russia will likely continue to recruit through crypto-mobilisation tactics, including coercing migrants and expanding private military company (PMC) operations, to sustain the war effort. The avoidance of a further round of formal mobilisation is highly likely to avoid societal discontent ahead of the March 2024 presidential elections (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 16 November 2023).
• NUCLEAR: Overnight on 1-2 December, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) lost off-site power and temporarily relied on emergency diesel generators for the electricity needed to cool its reactors, among other safety procedures. Ukraine’s energy ministry said Ukrainian specialists restored a 750 kW line that was undermined on 2 December at 0700hrs (local time). The ZNPP has experienced eight complete blackouts since the beginning of the invasion. However, despite the total loss of external power, the risk of a major nuclear escalation at the facility remains highly unlikely for the foreseeable future.
FORECAST
INFIGHTING: An increasing number of reports and public statements indicate tense Ukrainian civil-military relations at present. Ukrainska Pravda published a report on 4 December that claimed the recent visit of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has proven a catalyst for tensions between President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi.
According to unnamed sources cited by the outlet, Zaluzhnyi candidly complained to Austin that the presidential administration is ‘disturbing’ and interfering with his operations. Other sources indicate wider grievances and tensions. Unnamed sources close to Zaluzhnyi also claimed that Zelensky purposefully communicates directly with commanders and bypasses Zaluzhnyi. While this could realistically merely be an effort to speed up decision-making, sources claim it is further eroding trust and undermining Zaluzhnyi’s command. Sources also claimed that Zelensky is considering replacing Zaluzhnyi, despite his overwhelming popularity both within the military and – crucially for the ongoing political tensions – with the wider Ukrainian population. There are also indications that Zelensky’s efforts to push forward anti-corruption reforms, which have this year included large-scale dismissals of military commissars and other senior officers, have generated backlash from within the military. Finally, the effective failure of Ukraine’s summer counter-offensive has inevitably driven tensions.
While none of these claims are confirmed, increasing public statements by many of the main protagonists indicate tensions are indeed increasing. Notable opponents of Zelensky have up until now broadly avoided criticism of the president in a bid to discourage infighting and support the war effort. However, in recent weeks some statements point to a modestly growing readiness to (directly or indirectly) question Zelensky and the wider presidential administration. This includes Zelensky’s erstwhile opponent Vitaliy Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv, who claimed Ukraine was turning ‘authoritarian’ in an interview on 1 December.
While Zaluzhnyi has publicly remained distinctly apolitical in contrast to Klitschko, the general himself spoke out very publicly in an Economist article on 1 November. He stated that Ukraine is unlikely to achieve a major military breakthrough without fundamental changes to the war effort, in an apparent attempt to reconcile the failure of the summer counter-offensive. Meanwhile, Zelensky himself has openly warned military officers against entering politics, stating in an interview with the Sun newspaper on 21 November that military personnel who engage in politics should therefore ‘not engage in war’.
Ultimately, tensions between the political executive and military high command are almost inevitable in any major war, and it is unsurprising that after almost two years of war, such issues are beginning to surface publicly. With Zelensky unlikely to go ahead with presidential elections in March 2024 due to martial law conditions, a serious challenge to his leadership is highly unlikely to materialise in the short to medium term. Despite recent reductions in his approval ratings, Zelensky remains overwhelmingly popular, and a majority of Ukrainians currently do not support elections during wartime. Nevertheless, growing factionalisation and infighting between pro-Zelensky and pro-Zaluzhnyi camps will sustain civil-military tensions at a crucial period, when Kyiv is formulating its military strategy for 2024 amid an increasingly uncertain international context.
*Ukraine-Poland: New checkpoint will modestly reduce pressure on border amid ongoing supply chain disruption. Earlier on 4 December, Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service (DPSU) reported that border guards cleared 30 heavy vehicles for departure from Ukraine via the Uhryniv-Do?hobyczów checkpoint on the Ukrainian-Polish border. The DPSU stated that the crossing was opened for empty trucks at 0100hrs (local time) on 4 December. Ukraine’s Reconstruction Ministry and Poland’s Infrastructure Ministry agreed on 1 December to open the checkpoint to reduce pressure on other checkpoints along the border. Protesting Polish hauliers began partially blocking crossings on the Polish-Ukrainian border on 6 November; four checkpoints are currently under blockade. Ukraine’s trade representative and deputy economy minister, Taras Kachka, estimated on 30 November that weeks of road blockades would reduce Ukraine’s overall imports by around a fifth in November. The opening of the checkpoint will modestly aid in increasing capacity along the Polish-Ukrainian border, though supply chain disruption will likely persist as the protests continue. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Dec 23. The UK is to lead a new Maritime Capability Coalition alongside Norway, with Defence Secretary Grant Shapps confirming the transfer of two Royal Navy minehunter ships to the Ukrainian Navy.
- The UK will lead a new Maritime Capability Coalition alongside Norway, delivering ships and vehicles to strengthen Ukraine’s ability to operate at sea.
- Defence Secretary Grant Shapps will today confirm Ukraine’s procurement of two Royal Navy minehunter ships for the Ukrainian Navy.
- New coalition will deliver long-term support to Ukraine, including training, equipment, and infrastructure to bolster security in the Black Sea.
Two Royal Navy minehunter ships are being transferred from the Royal Navy to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in a move to strengthen Ukraine’s ability to operate at sea.
As the UK and Norway launch a new Maritime Capability Coalition, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps will announce the procurement of two Sandown Class mine countermeasures vessels (MCMVs) by Ukraine through UK Export Finance today in London.
He will be joined by his Norwegian counterpart to jointly launch the Maritime Capability Coalition. Alongside this new initiative, the Defence Secretary will confirm further details of UK military support to Ukraine.
Ukraine’s economy continues to be impacted by Putin’s blockade in the Black Sea, which has significantly reduced the country’s ability to move vital exports by sea. Strengthening the AFU’s maritime capabilities, in particular countering the threat from Russian sea mines, will help restore Ukraine’s maritime exports.
This builds on the UK Foreign Secretary’s visit to Ukraine last month where he welcomed the launch of the new ‘Unity Facility’ between UK company Marsh McLennan and the Ukrainian Government, which will provide affordable shipping insurance for grain and other critical food supplies globally from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, actively support international efforts to alleviate the global food crisis.
The new Maritime Capability Coalition will build the support that the UK, Norway, and others are providing to Ukraine. This will be long term to help Ukraine transform its navy, making it more compatible with western allies, more interoperable with NATO, and bolstering security in the Black Sea.
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said: “These minehunters will deliver vital capability to Ukraine which will help save lives at sea and open up vital export routes, which have been severely limited since Putin launched his illegal full-scale invasion. This capability boost marks the beginning of a new dedicated effort by the UK, Norway and our allies to strengthen Ukraine’s maritime capabilities over the long term, enhancing their ability to operate in defending their sovereign waters and bolstering security in the Black Sea. As an island nation with a proud maritime history, the UK and Royal Navy are particularly well-placed to support this endeavour, which will form part of a series of new coalitions formed between allies to ensure an enduring military commitment in support of Ukraine.”
The new maritime coalition will work closely with the Ukrainian Navy and Ministry of Defence to develop a number of capabilities, including the rapid development of a maritime force in the Black Sea, continuing to develop a Ukrainian Marine Corps, and river patrol craft to defend coastal and inland waterways.
Agreed during recent meetings of the 50-nation strong Ukraine Defence Contact Group, it forms part of a series of Capability Coalitions to strengthen Ukraine’s operations in other domains including on land and in the air.
The UK and Norway, together with other international partners, have already helped train hundreds of Ukrainian marines and aim to build on this work.
The Prime Minister and Defence Secretary have emphasised the UK’s unwavering support for Ukraine, with £4.6bn in military support allocated since Putin launched his full-scale invasion, and more than 52,000 Ukrainian troops trained since Russia first invaded Crimea in 2014.
(Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
09 Dec 23. Ukraine ‘in mortal danger’ and ‘will die’ without more aid, says Zelenska. The wife of Volodymyr Zelensky told the BBC that a slowdown in military aid and financial support was a ‘mortal danger’ for the country.
Ukraine will die if the West tires of supporting its war against Russia’s invasion, Olena Zelenska has said.
The wife of Volodymyr Zelensky told the BBC that a slowdown in military aid and financial support was a “mortal danger” for the country.
“In simple words, we cannot get tired of this situation, because if we do, we die,” she said.
Ms Zelenska gave her warning on Friday, the day after Republican senators blocked a £47.8 billion aid bill for Ukraine. Joe Biden has warned that failing to back Ukraine will be a “gift” to Vladimir Putin who analysts have said is waiting for the West’s support to fracture.
Ukrainians worried West has gotten bored of war
In her interview with Laura Kuenssberg, Ms Zelenska said Ukrainians are worried that the West has already gotten bored of war in Ukraine.
“It hurts us greatly to see the signs that the passionate willingness to help may fade,” she said. “It is a matter of life for us.”
Leading Kremlin appeasers is Viktor Orban, Hungary’s Prime Minister, who has said from the beginning of the war that Ukraine needs to negotiate peace with Russia. In October, Slovakians voted in a government that wanted to end the war.
Meloni admits EU leaders tired of war
In Western Europe, Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s prime minister, has admitted that EU leaders are growing tired of the war, although the leaders of Poland and the Baltic states have said that Putin is now more dangerous than at any time since his invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Through deals with Iran and North Korea, Putin has rearmed his military and orientated the Russian economy towards the military. This week, he visited the UAE and Saudi Arabia where he was feted as a great international leader, undermining Western sanctions against Russia.
(Source: Daily Telegraph)
07 Dec 23. Ukraine to make shells with US firms as it seeks to develop defence sector. Kyiv has agreed with two American firms to jointly manufacture vital 155mm artillery shells in Ukraine, a Ukrainian minister said on Thursday, although production will not start for at least two years.Demand for 155mm rounds soared following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The U.S. and allies have sent Kyiv more than 2 million and are trying, with limited success, to increase production to replenish stocks.
“We have agreements with two leading American companies to jointly produce, in Ukraine, 155-calibre ammunition,” Oleksandr Kamyshin, minister for strategic industries, said in televised comments.
But he noted that Ukraine had never produced such shells and it would be “a minimum of two years, a maximum of three” before production could begin.
The announcement follows a two-day Ukraine-U.S. defence conference held in Washington, which included bilateral meetings to discuss Ukraine’s battlefield plans for 2024 and measures to make it happen.
Kyiv and Washington signed a letter of intent at the forum to speed up weapons co-production and technical data exchange to meet the urgent needs of the Ukrainian army in air defence systems, maintenance, and production of critical ammunition.
CONCERNS GROW ABOUT FOREIGN SUPPORT
Ukraine’s defence sector, which for decades was dogged by underinvestment, red tape and corruption, is trying to compete with Russia’s far more advanced military industry and high budget support.
And, as the war nears the end of its second year with no end in sight, concerns are growing that Western supplies may be faltering as political support erodes and manufacturing capacity is still lacking as allies’ own stockpiles dwindle.
On Wednesday, Republicans in the U.S. Senate blocked an emergency bill that would provide about $60 billion in military and economic support for Ukraine, threatening hopes that the badly needed funds can be approved by the end of the year.
“For us, it is a matter of survival to create a military industry that matches the scale of the enemy’s industrial capacity,” Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov was quoted as saying on the conference website.
Kyiv also hopes that it can become integrated into the West’s military landscape by promoting joint weapons production and supplies in a “common defence industry space”.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine did not want to rely solely on military aid from allies and aimed to become a donor of security for neighbours in the future.
(Source: Reuters)
07 Dec 23. Swedish Support for Ukraine Makes a Difference in the War. Recently, Swedish Commander-in-Chief Micael Bydén visited wartime Ukraine, where he met, among other things, the Minister of Defense and his Ukrainian counterpart Valery Zaluzny. He was also at the front where he met personnel from the brigade who use Swedish equipment and who have been trained by Swedes.
“I wanted to see and hear with my own eyes and ears how the support is received on site and have received a receipt that it makes a real difference,” says Chief of Defence Micael Bydén.
That was one of the main purposes of the trip to Ukraine – to get an idea of how the Archer and Combat Vehicle 90 artillery system has gone and see what effect the systems have had.
“The Ukrainian soldiers pointed out that they are very satisfied with and grateful for the training they received and that they are impressed by the material systems which, in their opinion, are of high quality.
The support will continue, notes Bydén, but in a different form. Training and counseling will probably be the focus going forward.
“Now we have delivered effective systems such as Archer and CV90, now it is important to concentrate on supply, that the equipment works and can be used, in the form of maintenance, spare parts and ammunition,” he concluded. (Unofficial translation by Defense-Aerospace.com) (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Swedish Armed Forces; issued Dec 06, 2023)
07 Dec 23. Milrem Robotics partners with the Ukrainian Defence Industry to forge next-generation multi-domain robotic systems.
Europe’s leading robotics and autonomous systems developer Milrem Robotics and the Ukrainian Defense Industry (UDI) which consolidates national defence industry companies signed an agreement to start forging next-generation multi-domain robotic defence systems.
The agreement, signed during the First Defense Industries Forum (DFNC1) in Kyiv, details several development and manufacturing activities between Milrem Robotics and the members of UDI.
As a first step, the parties will start strategic cooperation in identifying Ukraine’s requirements and use cases for robotic systems which can enhance the capabilities of Ukraine’s armed units in the ongoing war and after the war.
Thereafter the companies involved will integrate Ukraine’s battlefield experience into Milrem Robotics’ existing robotic and autonomous systems and develop new products to create Ukraine’s manned and unmanned multi-domain capabilities.
“This unfortunate war in Ukraine has made it clear that unmanned and robotic systems have an important role on battlefield and this role will increase in time,” said Kuldar Väärsi, CEO of Milrem Robotics. “The main goal is to protect the troops and to keep the warfighters safe, but at the same time provide stronger and an asymmetric effect on the aggressor’s forces. We are honoured to cooperate with UDI to develop and manufacture robotic systems which help Ukraine win this war.”
“The First International Defence Industries Forum proved that we are on the same course as our Western partners, as Ukrainian manufacturers signed an agreement with Milrem Robotics and other global arms companies. Currently, Ukraine is gaining unique experience in Defense Tech, and we are ready to share this knowledge with our partners. We aim to deepen our cooperation with leading high-tech international companies to build the arsenal of the free world together,» said Oleksandr Kamyshin, Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine.
Ukrainian defence developers and manufacturers will be included to integrate their defence technology, such as weapon systems, electronic warfare and mine-clearing equipment with Milrem’s robotic vehicles to meet the requirements of the armed forces.
Additionally, the parties will look into manufacturing THeMIS Combat (with HMG and antitank capabilities), Combat Engineering (mine detection and demining), CASEVAC unmanned ground vehicles and other Milrem Robotics’ products in Ukraine and engineering cooperation in designing a wheeled Robotic Combat Vehicle.
Milrem Robotics has already delivered 15 THeMIS Unmanned Ground Vehicles to Ukraine to support logistics, casualty evacuation and route clearance operations.
Milrem Robotics is the leading European robotics and autonomous systems developer and systems integrator, with offices in Estonia, Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands and the US. The company is known for their THeMIS and Multiscope UGVs, the Type-X Robotic Combat Vehicle and the MIFIK autonomy kit.
UDI, which was transformed into a joint-stock company this summer, is a strategic manufacturer of weapons and military equipment in Ukraine and unites state-owned defence companies employing around 67,000 highly qualified employees.
07 Dec 23. Putin is close to victory. Europe should be terrified.
Ukraine’s time is running out. The danger is that the EU faces the same fate as the Holy Roman Empire.
With the Ukraine conflict languishing in stalemate, the possibility that Russian president Vladimir Putin might yet emerge victorious from his ill-judged invasion cannot be ignored, with all the implications such an outcome would have for Europe’s security.
Ukraine’s failure to make a decisive breakthrough in its counter-offensive during the summer has all but silenced the optimistic predictions made by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and his senior commanders that victory was within Kyiv’s grasp. Instead, the Ukrainian narrative is in danger of descending into recriminations over the refusal of its Western allies to provide Kyiv with the weaponry required to break the impasse on the battlefield. As the Ukrainian leader remarked in a recent interview, “We didn’t get all the weapons we wanted, I can’t be satisfied.”
The lack of military progress, together with the eruption of hostilities between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, has certainly deepened the sense of scepticism among some Western leaders over Ukraine’s ability to prevail. There is a growing sentiment within the Biden administration, for example, that its interests would be better served by pressuring Zelensky to sue for peace, rather than persisting with a military campaign he stands little chance of winning.
Meanwhile, Putin is intensifying his efforts to reclaim the military advantage, using the country’s strong oil revenues to militarise the Russian economy, which has led to a significant increase in weapons production. Putin has also authorised a 170,000 increase in the size of the Russian military. He hopes this will aid its efforts to seize key strategic targets, such as the eastern town of Avdiivka in the Donbas region, the scene of recent heavy fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces.
The notion that, 21 months after Russia invaded Ukraine, the Russian military would still be capable of mounting an offensive seemed inconceivable only a few months ago, after Moscow had suffered a series of devastating setbacks. And while it still remains highly unlikely that Putin will be able to fulfil his goal of conquering all of Ukraine and establishing a puppet regime in Kyiv, any conclusion that results in the Kremlin retaining significant areas of Ukrainian territory will be hailed as a victory.
Such an outcome would present a significant challenge for the Western alliance, as its ability to withstand Russian aggression would be open to question after all the military support it has given Ukraine. It would also encourage Putin in the belief that he could undertake further acts of aggression on Nato’s eastern flank, safe in the knowledge that the West had neither the resources nor resolve to resist the Kremlin’s expansionist aims.
The prospect of Russia intensifying the threat it poses to European security in the event of Putin achieving only modest gains in Ukraine has prompted a number of prominent European military experts to question openly Nato’s preparedness for meeting such a challenge. A recent defence conference in Berlin was treated to a doomsday scenario whereby Europe risked suffering the same fate as the Holy Roman Empire under Napoleon, and being “washed away” in a future conflict with Russia because of Nato’s inability to defend Europe’s eastern flank.
Sönke Neitzel, one of Germany’s leading military historians, claimed that it could take 15 years before his country was capable of defending itself against Russia. His sentiments were reinforced by Jacek Siewiera, the chief of Poland’s National Security Bureau, who warned that Nato had as little as three years to prepare itself for a Russian attack on its eastern flank.
And yet, despite the obvious threat Moscow poses, Western leaders appear disinclined to credit it with the seriousness it merits. The argument made during the early stages of the Ukraine conflict – that ensuring Russia suffered a heavy defeat would dissuade Putin from further acts of aggression – has been replaced by war fatigue, and a desire to end hostilities at all costs, even if it leads to an emboldened Russia.
Nor has the West’s response to the conflict engendered better co-operation in the defence sphere. Commenting on the stalemate in the Ukraine conflict, the secretary general of Nato, Jens Stoltenberg, recently lamented the fragmented nature of Europe’s defence industry. “We are not able to work as closely together as we should,” he said, warning that the inability of European nations to pool resources could undermine efforts to maintain ammunition supplies to Ukraine.
The failure to afford the Russian threat the seriousness it deserves is evident in Britain, too, where analysis of Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement last month suggests the Government is unlikely to fulfil its pledge to raise defence spending from 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent of GDP, a key requirement for making our Armed Forces better-equipped to counter the Russian threat. Not only, it appears, is Europe preparing to let Ukraine lose the war: it has little appetite for defending itself against future acts of Russian aggression. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
07 Dec 23. Ukraine assassinates ‘traitor’ ex-MP in Russia – follow live.
Illya Kyva, a former Ukrainian MP, has been assassinated in Russia by Ukraine’s SBU security service, law enforcement sources told BBC Ukraine.
“The criminal was liquidated by using small arms,” the sources said.
Russian investigators said Kyva was shot dead in the village of Suponevo, to the west of Moscow, where his body was found yesterday.
Earlier this year, Kyva was handed a 14-year prison sentence for high treason after calling for Russia to occupy Ukraine. He fled to Russia one month before Moscow launched its invasion in February 2022 and was tried in absentia.
The 46-year-old politician had campaigned unsuccessfully for Ukraine’s presidency in 2019.
Andriy Yusov, spokesman for Ukraine’s military intelligence, told Ukrainian TV: “Yes, we can confirm Kyva is no more. This fate will befall other traitors of Ukraine and puppets of Putin’s regime”. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
06 Dec 23. Biden open to ‘significant’ concessions on border security in return for Ukraine aid. US president appeals for support as Senate blocks emergency aid package including $60bn for Kyiv. Joe Biden pleaded with Republicans on Wednesday for a fresh infusion of military aid for Ukraine, warning that a victory for Russia would leave Putin in position to attack Nato allies and could draw US troops into a war.
The US president spoke as the White House planned to announce $175 m in additional Ukraine aid from its dwindling supply of money for Kyiv. He signalled a willingness to make significant changes to US migration policy along the border with Mexico to try to draw Republican support.
“If Putin takes Ukraine, he won’t stop there,” Mr Biden said. Putin will attack a Nato ally, he predicted, and then “we’ll have something that we don’t seek and that we don’t have today: American troops fighting Russian troops”.
The US president’s appeal came after the Senate blocked an emergency aid package that included more than $60 bn in new military support for Kyiv.
Congress has for months been split over sending more cash to Ukraine, with hard-line Republicans demanding an overhaul of immigration policy along the border with Mexico in exchange for their support.
Efforts to secure a funding deal were placed in an effective logjam on Wednesday, after Republicans in the upper house blocked a bill to provide aid to Ukraine and Israel over a lack of border provisions.
Senators voted 49-51 and therefore failed to reach the 60-vote threshold that would allow the proposal to come up for consideration.
The vote was along party lines, with every Senate Republican voting “no” along with Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent who generally votes with Democrats but had expressed concerns about funding Israel’s “current inhumane military strategy” against Palestinians.
In an indication that Democrats intend to return to the matter promptly, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer flipped his vote to “no” so he could bring the bill up again in the future.
Speaking from the Roosevelt Room in the White House, Mr Biden accused “extreme Republicans” of “playing chicken with our national security, [and] holding Ukraine’s funding hostage to their extreme partisan border policies”.
He accused them of being willing to “literally kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield” and “give Russian president Vladimir Putin the greatest gift he could hope for”.
House and Senate Republicans are backing renewed construction of a border wall, former president Donald Trump’s signature goal, and a revival of a controversial policy under which asylum seekers must remain in Mexico while their immigration case is heard.
Mr Biden said on Wednesday he was willing to make “significant” compromises on the border issue, admitting the system was “broken” and in need of fixing, but could not meet their every demand.
He said Democrats had put a “bipartisan compromise on the table” which had been rejected.
“This has to be a negotiation,” he said. “Republicans think they get everything they want, without any bipartisan compromise. That’s not the answer.”
Mr Biden has asked Congress for nearly $106 bn to fund the wars in Ukraine, Israel and other security needs.
He said “petty, partisan, angry politics can’t get in the way of our responsibility”, before warning that if Putin enters Nato territory it could result in “American troops fighting Russian troops”.
The debate on supplemental Ukraine funding descended into a shouting match at the US Capitol on Tuesday, prompting several Republicans to walk out of a classified briefing. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
06 Dec 23. Global: Ongoing exploitation of software vulnerabilities will elevate security risks for businesses . On 4 December, Microsoft reported that a Russian state-sponsored threat group, ‘APT28’, is actively exploiting a vulnerability in Outlook email services to obtain unauthorised access to accounts on Exchange servers. The vulnerability (CVE-2023-23397) is a critical privilege escalation flaw that could allow a threat actor access to specific user account information that could be exploited to authenticate the unauthorised actor. APT28 is actively exploiting the vulnerability of public and private entities in Poland, likely to obtain sensitive information. The vulnerability has a patch that has been available since March 2023, underscoring the necessity for improved adherence to cyber security policies for organisations, especially those in critical sectors. Russian threat actors have exploited zero-day and pre-existing vulnerabilities throughout 2022 and 2023 to target government, transportation, energy and military sectors, among others. Their ongoing exploitation of such vulnerabilities highlights the sophistication of these groups and the increased security risk unpatched and/or unknown vulnerabilities can pose for critical sectors. (Source: Sibylline)
06 Dec 23. Kyiv does not want to rely solely on allied military aid-Zelenskiy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that Kyiv was ramping up domestic military production in cooperation with partners as it aims to guarantee its own defence capabilities and become a donor of security.
“Ukraine does not want to depend only on partners. Ukraine aims to and really can become a donor of security for all our neighbors once it can guarantee its own safety”, he told participants in the joint Ukraine-U.S. defense conference in Washington.
Zelenskiy, whose remarks were posted on the presidential website, said the plan was “absolutely realistic.”
“I invite all American defense companies to cooperate with Ukraine. I am confident that together we can create a new and powerful arsenal of freedom, which will be a reliable helper for all free nations of the world.” (Source: Reuters)
06 Dec 23. Austin Ushers in U.S.-Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Partnership. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III underscored today the importance of bolstering Ukraine’s long-term sustainment of key capabilities to deter Russian aggression through the development of its domestic industrial base.
Speaking during the opening session of the Ukraine Defense Industrial Base Conference in Washington, Austin said Ukraine’s ability to produce critical military equipment domestically is key to its ability to maintain lasting freedom and sovereignty within its borders.
“Together with our allies and partners, we must continue working to help Ukraine repel Russian forces today and build a future force for Ukraine that can deter Russian aggression in the years to come,” he said. “That will mean strengthening Ukraine’s defense industrial base, both to maintain Ukraine’s current war effort and to bolster Ukraine’s national strength and deterrence long into the future.”
The two-day conference, co-hosted by the White House, Commerce and Defense Departments, brings together U.S. and Ukrainian industry and government representatives to discuss ideas that could bolster Ukraine’s defense industrial base.
Discussions at the conference include areas of potential collaboration between the U.S., Ukrainian government and industry partners regarding ways to advance best practices that can lead to long-term success, as well as increased investments in Ukraine’s defense sector.
The discussions build on an event held in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, in September, which focused on enhanced industry partnerships between Ukraine and international partners.
During the kickoff Wednesday, U.S. and Ukrainian officials signed a statement of intent on the co-production of critical weapons and on prioritizing technical and data exchange between the two countries to address the urgent needs of Ukraine’s armed forces.
Austin said advancements realized through industry partnerships will open pathways for Ukraine to produce spare parts closer to the point of need and more swiftly return repaired military equipment to the frontlines.
“We must also strengthen the logistical and information technology systems that bind all of these efforts together — a robust and resilient industrial base that has hot production lines with strong, secure supply chains,” Austin said.
“By gathering here today, we’re working to bring the full power of American free enterprise and American innovation to bear to reach that goal,” he said.
Austin said a strong, sustainable Ukrainian defense industry would resonate far beyond its borders and enhance security around the globe.
“Together with our allies and partners, I am confident that we have all the pieces that we need to help our Ukrainian friends sustain their fight for their sovereignty over the long haul,” he said. “It’s up to all of us to put those pieces together.”
“At the end of the day, we all benefit from the dynamic industrial bases of our global allies and partners,” Austin continued. “And that’s important far beyond Europe. The whole world is watching, and we must come together to meet this moment.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
06 Dec 23. Ukraine’s latest weapons request includes THAAD air defenses and F-18s. Ukraine’s latest list of U.S. weapons it says it needs to fight the Russian military includes sophisticated air defense systems, F-18 “Hornet” fighter jets, drones, Apache and Blackhawk helicopters, according to documents seen by Reuters.
Officials from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense presented a “list of armaments to meet the needs of defense forces of Ukraine” during a closed-door session of a conference in Washington on Wednesday attended by government officials and defense industry executives.
The comprehensive list included weapons Ukraine already has in stock like Abrams tanks and 155 millimeter artillery, as well some weaponry such as F-16s, drones and long-range ATACMS missiles that it has asked for in the past.
But the list has a few surprises including big-ticket items like C-17 Globemaster transport jets made by Boeing (BA.N) and the C-130 Super Hercules made by Lockheed Martin (LMT.N). Boeing’s Apache attack helicopters made the list, as did the Black Hawk helicopter made by Lockheed Martin’s Sikorsky unit.
But the Ukrainians did not stop there. The documents show Ukraine is also seeking F-18 “Hornet” fighter jets, three types of drones made by General Atomics including the MQ-9B Sky Guardian and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) air defense system made by Lockheed.
Ukrainians know they must secure Western military aid to carry on the fight.
Legislation that would provide bns of dollars in new security assistance for Ukraine and Israel was blocked in the U.S. Senate on Wednesday as Republicans pressed their demands for tougher measures to control immigration at the U.S. border with Mexico.
U.S. President Joe Biden has made a Ukrainian victory a foreign-policy goal as he campaigns for re-election in November 2024.
Ukraine’s list reflects what would easily be bns of dollars’ worth of purchases or donations of weapons.
The Ukrainian embassy in Washington did not immediately return a request for comment. (Source: Reuters)
06 Dec 23. US and Ukrainian leaders seek expansion of arms production. U.S. and Ukrainian government representatives signed an agreement to speed weapons co-production and data sharing at a conference in Washington on Wednesday.
“Ukraine becoming more self-sufficient in weapons production obviously alleviates the long term need for continued supply of weapons from the United States and other Western countries,” Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan told Reuters in an interview. “So they ramp up and we can, over time, ramp down the extent of the necessary deliveries.”
The letter of intent was signed at a meeting of U.S. and Ukrainian industry and government representatives and “will prioritize co-production and technical data exchange to address the urgent operational needs of the armed forces in Ukraine,” Jason Israel, the White House National Security Council’s Director for Defense Policy and Strategy told an audience of more than 200 gathered in the Department of Commerce auditorium.
Areas of concentration include “air defense systems, repair and sustainment and production of critical munitions,” Israel told the audience.
Sullivan told Reuters that the goal was to facilitate licensing, technology transfer, funding, partnerships and co-production that will eventually involve brick and mortar “Ukrainian outfits with Ukrainian expertise relying upon those licenses and tech transfer – and so forth – from U.S. companies and European companies.”
Sullivan did not go into which systems the U.S. was comfortable licensing to Ukraine, but said there was a range including large companies like Boeing (BA.N), drone maker General Atomics to technology companies like Amentum Services and Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS.N).
The letter was signed by the Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer Bill LaPlante, Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov and its Minister for Strategic Industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin.
The three-day conference kicked off on Wednesday and included high-level speakers from both governments including U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Ukraine’s Head of the Office of the President Andriyy Yermak and the Minister of Defense.
The event is being hosted by the U.S. Department of Commerce and is part of a U.S. government effort to increase weapons production in support of Ukraine. (Source: Reuters)
06 Dec 23. Austin Meets With Ukrainian Minister of Defense at Pentagon.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III today hosted bilateral discussions at the Pentagon with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. The meeting comes on the heels of the Ukraine Defense Industrial Base Conference today in Washington, D.C., and also aligns with today’s announcement of another security assistance package for Ukraine.
The two leaders most recently met in November in Kyiv, where they discussed military operations as well as Umerov’s near- and mid-term goals and objectives for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. Before closed-door discussions began, Austin publicly reiterated U.S. support for Ukraine.
“As I said in Kyiv, the United States stands with Ukraine as you fight back against the Kremlin’s aggression and cruelty,” Austin said. “Ukraine has taken back more than half the territory grabbed by Russia since its unprovoked invasion began in February 2022. So we will stand with Ukraine for the long haul. I’m confident that our allies and partners will be there as well.”
Today’s bilateral discussion built on conversations that occurred last month in Kyiv, and included Ukraine’s strategic goals for the coming year and a long-term vision for a future force.
“To support Ukraine’s immediate needs, I am announcing our 52nd drawdown of equipment and services from U.S. stocks,” Austin said. “The package includes additional munitions for your defense — artillery and tank weapons, and small arms munitions.”
This most recent security assistance package, worth $175 m, includes, among other things, AIM-9M and AIM-7 missiles for air defense, ammunition for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, 155 mm and 105 mm artillery rounds and High-speed Anti-radiation missiles, also known as HARMs. The United States has committed more than $44.2 bn in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Austin also discussed the significance of the Ukraine Defense Industrial Base Conference. The two-day conference, co-hosted by the White House, Commerce and Defense Departments, brings together U.S. and Ukrainian industry and government representatives to discuss ideas that could bolster Ukraine’s defense industrial base.
“We discussed ways to strengthen partnerships among Ukraine and the U.S. defense industry,” Austin said. “This just underscores America’s commitment to a free and sovereign Ukraine — one that can defend itself today and deter further Russian aggression in the future.”
Umerov thanked Austin for hosting the bilateral discussions and for organizing the industrial base conference.
“We consider this conference … a significant breakthrough in the development of our military/technical cooperation,” Umerov said. “It’s one of our key elements of increasing self-sufficiency in Ukraine.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
06 Dec 23. Europe’s outliers on Ukraine temper their anti-aid rhetoric. Recently elected leaders in Slovakia and the Netherlands are tempering the anti-Ukraine rhetoric that elevated them to victory during their campaigns, as the stakes of antagonizing their Western allies by halting military support to Kyiv are too high, experts say.
Following the September victory of the Russia-friendly party of Slovakia’s new Prime Minister, Robert Fico, concerns emerged regarding the fate of Bratislava’s supply of military aid to Ukraine.
The Slovak authorities have donated, among other things, MiG-29 fighters, mine clearance systems, air-to-air missiles, ammunition and self-propelled artillery to their invaded neighbor.
Shortly after it was sworn in, Fico’s new Cabinet rejected the outgoing government’s latest draft of military supplies to Ukraine, which planned to send rockets and further ammunition to the embattled country.
Regardless of the politician’s tough pre-election narrative of “not a single round” for Ukraine, his flagship electoral slogan, Bratislava has yet to halt its defense cooperation with Kyiv.
During a NATO meeting held last week, Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba thanked his Slovak counterpart Juraj Bla?r for his government’s continued involvement in helping Ukraine repel Russian forces.
“I am grateful to my Slovak counterpart for confirming that defense industry cooperation among our companies will continue, and that the repair hub in Slovakia [to service Ukrainian weapons] will also maintain operations,” Kuleba said, as quoted in a statement released by his ministry.
Blanár made similar remarks, noting that the Slovak government “will continue to support Ukraine,” and is “looking for ways to continue training Ukrainian soldiers.”
Local media have also reported that Ukraine has also shown an interest in acquiring more Slovak-made Zuzana 2 self-propelled howitzers manufactured by Konstruka Defense, of which Slovakia has already delivered eight.
Experts explain that these developments suggest that the Fico government will likely strive to balance the pro-Moscow sympathies of his voters against the broader expectations of Slovakia’s allies.
“For Fico to satisfy some of his domestic promises, it is in his interest to shift more towards the mainstream privately and elevate his values as a reliable player in Brussels with other leaders so he can cash in later more pressing priorities,” Roger Hilton, defense fellow at the Bratislava-based think tank GLOBSEC said. “These may include unlocking EU funds or getting a greater say in other policy areas like migration.”
Moreover, the seemingly contradictory rhetoric, compared to that of the election campaign, should be taken with the caveat that Slovakia doesn’t possess many of the weapons Ukraine wants, Hilton added.
“Making this shift in private is even easier for the government on the NATO level, when you consider that Slovakia has very little transformation stock left to provide Ukraine. … Fico can walk back his campaign talk without fear of having to give up anything in public,” Hilton said.
Meanwhile, in Amsterdam, the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) of Geert Wilders won the largest number of seats in the country’s parliament last month, sparking similar fears as Fico’s victory of a potential abrupt end to Ukraine aid.
Since the election, Wilders, whose past praise of Vladimir Putin has earned him a reputation of a Kremlin-friendly populist, has launched talks with other parties to form a coalition cabinet.
The politician has said he is willing to compromise and tone down some of his more extreme policies as to gain greater support from other parties, according to a report from the Financial Times.
Forming a new government promises to be lengthy as well as complex process, and ultimately may result in Wilders not becoming prime minister, as the ruling party has declined to form a coalition with the PVV under his leadership.
“Should Wilders become part of any new cabinet, it could impact assistance to Ukraine. The PVV is against the sending of F-16s for example, arguing that doing so detracts from the defense of the Netherlands,” Davis Ellison, strategic analyst at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies said. “There are quite possibly some very real implications coming from this election.”
Other experts are more confident about the future of Dutch military assistance to Kyiv, as they argue a majority of parties are in favor of its continuity.
“The only two political forces, including the PVV, which intend to halt the delivery of weapons and ammunition to Kyiv represent 40 out of the 150 seats in the lower chamber, [as such] it’s unlikely that other parties will accept the PVV’s intent to stop these,” Dick Zandee, head of the security and defense program at the Dutch think tank Clingendael Institute said. (Source: Defense News)
06 Dec 23. Ukraine aid in peril as Senate Republicans walk out of heated briefing. Republican Sens. Deb Fischer and Mitt Romney walked side by side Tuesday as they hastily left the Biden administration’s classified briefing on a massive defense spending package that includes Ukraine and Israel aid, both visibly agitated.
Fischer of Nebraska and Romney of Utah were among numerous Republicans to exit the briefing early. By their account, administration officials did not provide answers to their questions on Ukraine beyond what’s publicly available in unclassified public reports, compounding their frustration with Democrats for refusing to meet their demands for immigration policy changes in the legislation.
The unrelated partisan fight over immigration policy threatens to derail the roughly $113 bn package that also includes funding for the U.S. southern border and Indo-Pacific security partners, all while the Biden administration rapidly runs out of the little remaining Ukraine aid. It raises serious questions about whether Congress will continue providing aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invasion despite previous Senate Republican support for a a bipartisan defense supplemental package.
“We’ve had it,” Fischer said. “When you have Deb Fischer who’s upset about this, they better be worried. Because I have backed everything.”
Fischer, who sits on the Armed Services and Appropriations committees, has championed aid to Kyiv despite mounting House Republican opposition. She vented to reporters about her misgivings following the briefing — some of which extended beyond the immigration debate and marked Ukraine policy grievances set in motion months ago.
“The point is there’s no answer to any questions down there,” Fischer told Defense News, criticizing the Biden administration for requesting Ukraine aid via a supplemental rather than in its base budget proposal earlier this year. “They should have realized the issues. We’ve been very aware of the issues that we have in Ukraine with our own munitions.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was expected to address senators at the briefing via video but had to cancel, though it was unclear why. During a visit to Washington in September, he warned senators that Ukraine will lose the war if foreign assistance does not continue.
The Biden administration has less than $5 bn in presidential drawdown authority to continue transferring weapons to Ukraine from U.S. stockpiles and $1 bn to replenish weapons it’s already sent.
The director of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, Shalanda Young, said Monday in a letter to congressional leaders that the administration would run out of these funds by the end of the year.
“Frankly after the last few minutes, I’m beginning to worry about the supplemental passing at all before the first of the year,” Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, the top Republican on the Armed Services Committee and another Ukraine aid proponent, said after the briefing.
Wicker, who stayed for most of the briefing, told Defense News he found the administration’s answers lacking on its previous reluctance to send certain munitions — complaints pro-Ukraine Republicans have had for more than a year.
“That said, we very much need to pass a supplemental assisting our Israeli friends, our Ukrainian friends, getting ready for deterring war in the Pacific, and addressing our southern border, and part and parcel to our defense needs is the very inadequate submarine-industrial base,” Wicker argued.
‘A Russian city or Ukrainian city?’
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., told reporters Tuesday that House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., informed him in a phone call last week that he would not advance Ukraine aid if it does not include a hard-line immigration bill House Republicans passed earlier this year.
Nonetheless, Schumer has scheduled the first procedural vote on the behemoth supplemental package for Wednesday. But that vote is expected to fail after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said the Republican caucus will vote against it without the immigration policy changes the party is demanding.
Notably, McConnell has spent most of the last year making the case for Ukraine aid to critics in his party and had previously supported a defense spending supplemental with the assistance to bypass the $886 bn caps laid out in the May debt ceiling agreement.
Heritage Action, the lobbying wing of the conservative Heritage Foundation, sent a letter to Johnson on Tuesday asking him to “strongly oppose” the Ukraine aid. The letter calls for no more assistance unless the Biden administration “provides a plan that defines the end goal in Ukraine, describes the expected U.S. commitment to achieve that goal, addresses the effects of the presidential drawdown authority on U.S. capabilities and assures further commitments from our European partners.”
Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said that “a cynic would say the goal here is to take down Ukraine funding.”
“We are making the decision right now as to whether Kyiv is a Russian city or Ukrainian city,” Murphy told Defense News. “My level of frustration about the lack of seriousness from Republicans is due to the stakes that we are dealing with. And the stakes are whether Ukraine exists 12 months from now or is a part of Russia.”
The Senate’s proposed bill would provide $13.5bn to continue arming Ukraine through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. It allocates another $15.1bn for the Defense Department to continue supporting Kyiv with military training, intelligence sharing and “an increased presence in the European Command area of responsibility,” per a Senate summary of the bill.
On top of that, the bill appropriates $24.5bn to replenish weapons that the U.S. has already sent to Ukraine and Israel through its stockpiles. It also sets aside another $15.3bn in Israel military aid and $2.8bn to increase capacity for the munitions-industrial base.
The bill does not place conditions on aid to Israel despite conversations among Senate Democrats about doing so last week.
It also allocates $3bn at Wicker’s insistence to help prepare the beleaguered submarine-industrial base for the trilateral AUKUS agreement that would see the U.S. and Britain help Australia build a nuclear-powered submarine fleet. Wicker has promised to hold up two key AUKUS authorizations from the annual defense policy bill unless Congress appropriates that funding. (Source: Defense News)
06 Dec 23. Biden Administration Announces New Security Assistance for Ukraine. Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced new security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs that uses the limited resources that remain available to help Ukraine.
This announcement is the Biden Administration’s fifty-second tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This package includes additional air defense capabilities, artillery ammunition, anti-tank weapons, and other equipment to help Ukraine counter Russia’s ongoing war of aggression.
This package utilizes assistance previously authorized for Ukraine during prior fiscal years under Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) that remained after the PDA revaluation process.
The capabilities in this package, valued at up to $175m, include:
* AIM-9M and AIM-7 missiles for air defense;
* Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
* 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
* High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
* Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
* Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
* More than 4 m rounds of small arms ammunition;
* Vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
* Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing;
* Equipment to protect critical national infrastructure;
* Spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.
Alongside some 50 Allies and partners, the United States has provided Ukraine with the capabilities it needs to achieve significant military victories and successfully retake more than 50% of its sovereign territory that Russia seized in its invasion. Our security assistance packages help Ukraine protect its civilians, cities, and infrastructure from Russia’s brutal aerial attacks. U.S. leadership is central to sustaining the global coalition that has enabled Ukraine’s courageous forces to successfully defend its sovereignty and independence and take back more than half of the territory seized by Russian invaders. It is critical that Congress takes action soon and passes the President’s national security supplemental request to ensure we can continue our support for Ukraine.
Security assistance for Ukraine is a smart investment in our national security. It helps to prevent a larger war in the region and deter potential aggression elsewhere, while strengthening our defense industrial base and creating highly skilled jobs for the American people. (Source: U.S. DoD)
06 Dec 23. US president Joe Biden accused Republicans in Congress of being willing to give Russian president Vladimir Putin the “greatest gift he could hope for” as a vote on Wednesday to provide more aid to Ukraine appeared doomed to fail in the Senate. Speaking from the White House on Wednesday after a virtual meeting with fellow G7 leaders, Biden said “any disruption in our ability to supply Ukraine clearly strengthens Putin’s position” and the US had “run out of money” to help Kyiv. “History is going to judge harshly those who turn their back on freedom’s cause. We can’t let Putin win,” Biden said. “It’s in our overwhelming national interest in the…..interest of all our friends,” he added. Biden’s comments came just hours ahead of an expected vote in the Senate on a proposed $111bn spending package, which includes $60bn for Ukraine. With that vote now expected to fail, the president’s intervention also reflected growing fears within the administration that Congress would be unable to reach any deal on Ukraine aid before the end of the year, seriously damaging Kyiv’s military capabilities and giving Russia the edge nearly two years since it launched its full-scale invasion of the country. The White House has for most of the year been optimistic that Congress would eventually come around to an agreement on Ukraine aid, given that a majority of US lawmakers support it. But that confidence has been shaken several times in recent months. Biden said it was “stunning” the US had reached a point where Ukraine funding might dry up, pinning the blame squarely on Republicans. “Republicans in Congress are willing to give Putin the greatest gift he could hope for, and abandoned our global leadership not just in Ukraine but beyond that,” he said. Aid for Ukraine was left out of two separate stop-gap bills passed in recent months to keep funding the government, and the outbreak of war in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas has made it harder for Congress to prioritise aid for Ukraine. Meanwhile, polling has shown dwindling political support for aid to Ukraine across the country. According to Gallup, 41 per cent of Americans say the US is doing “too much” to help Ukraine, a sharp increase compared with 29 per cent who said the same in June. While Democrats are largely supportive of aid to Ukraine, Republicans in Congress have increasingly balked at sending additional help for Kyiv to help it win back territory from Russian forces. Republican House speaker Mike Johnson, a hardline conservative from Louisiana and a close ally of Donald Trump, is demanding strict curbs on immigration at the southern border with Mexico in return for any aid to Ukraine — which is an unpalatable condition to most Democrats and the White House. Republicans in the Senate who have previously supported Kyiv embraced Johnson’s position this week, in a development that surprised those who hoped for a bipartisan compromise. “Republicans are playing chicken with our national security, holding Ukraine’s funding hostage to their extreme partisan border policies,” Biden said. The US president said he was “willing to make significant compromises on the border”, but “thus far I’ve gotten no response”. Still, Biden said he would continue to press for a solution. “I’m not prepared to walk away and I don’t think the American people are either.” (Source: FT.com)
06 Dec 23. UK hits military suppliers propping up Russia’s war machine.
The UK announces new sanctions targeting individuals and groups supplying and funding Putin’s war machine.
• UK announces 46 new sanctions targeting individuals and groups supplying and funding Putin’s war machine.
• This includes businesses in Belarus, China, Serbia, Turkey the UAE and Uzbekistan who continue to support Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
• By including entities operating in China, Serbia, and Uzbekistan the UK has now taken action against over 30 third-country entities supporting Russia’s war efforts. This signals the UK’s no tolerance approach to those enabling Russia’s illegal war, wherever they may be.
Foreign military suppliers exporting equipment and parts to Russia are among dozens of individuals and groups sanctioned today to target those helping Putin’s war machine.
Russian weapons manufacturers and defence importers were also among the list of 46 new sanctions imposed as well as 3 actors supporting the Wagner Group network and 4 operators of so-called ‘shadow fleet’ vessels used by Russia to soften the blow of oil-related sanctions imposed by the UK alongside G7 partners.
As the Prime Minister said to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a call last week, the UK’s support for our Ukrainian allies is steadfast. Today’s measures will disrupt Putin’s ability to equip his military through third-party supply chains in Belarus, China, Serbia, Turkey, the UAE and Uzbekistan.
The move will hit Russia where it hurts and starve Putin of the resources he needs for his illegal war on Ukraine.
Today’s package comes as G7 Leaders are due to discuss and agree additional measures designed to go further to bear down on the revenue Russia needs to finance Putin’s war machine; prevent Russia from accessing inputs to its military and industrial base; and demonstrate to Russia there is a price to pay for the damage it has caused to Ukraine.
Among those sanctioned today are:
• Russia’s Military Industrial Complex: 31 individuals and entities linked to designing and manufacturing drones and missile parts and importing and supplying key electronic components. This includes several directors and their immediate family members.
• Third Country Suppliers to Russia’s Military: JSC Display Design Bureau a Belarusian defence organisation linked to manufacturing military technology for the Belarusian regime, which has directly facilitated Putin’s illegal war; AVIO CHEM a Serbian company which has sent multiple shipments of aircraft parts and accessories to Russian entities;?MVIZION an Uzbek company which acted as intermediary to import parts to Russia; a Turkish entity Smart Trading Limited involved in the supply of sanctioned western electronics to Russia, and three Chinese entities, Asia Pacific Links Limited, Sinno Electronics Co., Limited, and Xinghua Co., Limited, supplying sanctioned goods, critical for Russia’s war efforts.
• Wagner Group related: three entities and individuals linked to the Wagner Group’s wider network, including RUSICH Military group a private Russian company active in Ukraine and its commander.
• Oil related: four UAE-based entities using opaque corporate structures and deceptive shipping practices to facilitate unfettered trade in Russian oil, bearing down on Russia’s efforts to generate war revenues.
Sanctions are starving Russia’s military of key Western components and technology. Alongside our partners, sanctions on international supply chains have resulted in a 98% reduction of Russian imports of battlefield technology from sanctioning countries. Pre-invasion Russia was a major exporter of arms. Instead, it is now having to turn to DPRK and Iran for unreliable equipment and to buy back parts it previously exported to other countries. While the world is moving forwards technologically, Russia is going backwards.
In tandem with today’s sanctions, the National Crime Agency has today issued an advisory for the UK’s regulated sector. This advisory provides banks and other firms with key red flags of transactions and customer attributes commonly associated with sanctions evasion. We call on industry to report all suspicious activity, and potential sanctions breaches as set out in the guidance.
Sanctions Minister, Anne-Marie Trevelyan said: “Today’s sanctions will hit Putin where it hurts, damaging Russian defence systems, and cracking down on illegal supply chains propping up Russia’s war machine.
Working alongside our G7 partners and international allies we will continue to ratchet up pressure on Putin and crack down on third parties providing restricted goods and technology to Russia, wherever they may be.”
Today’s sanctions tackle Russia’s repeated attempts to circumvent and offset the clear impact UK sanctions are having on its war effort.
In August the UK launched one of its largest ever actions targeting Russian military suppliers and last month took action to disrupt a covert procurement network used by Russia to acquire critical western technology. Today’s announcement builds on these actions and cracks down on those who continue to supply and fund Putin’s illegal war in Ukraine. See below the full list of individuals and organisations sanctioned by the UK today:
JSC SOYUZ
Arutyunov Alexander BORISOVICH
Dmitriy Vladimirovich BABAN
Kamo Stepanovich GUKASYAN
Mikhail Nikolaevich BYCHKOV
Mkrtich Stepanovich ARAKELYAN
Ganez, Stepanovich GUKASYAN
Semyon Mkrtychovich SIMONYAN
Stepan Kamoevich GUKASYAN
Vasilii Yuryevich KRITSKII
Vitalii Yuryevich BABENKOV
Vladimir Nikolaevich ANYUROV
Zorair Artyushevich APRESYAN
Andranik Mkrtichovich OKROYAN
Anna Mkrtichevna OKROYAN
Arutyun Okroevich OKROYAN
Vaso Mikhakovick OKROYAN
Mkrtich OKROYAN
JSC RESEARCH AND PRODUCTION ENTERPRISE RADAR MMS
JSC VOTKINSK MACHINE BUILDING PLANT
Dmitriy STREZHNEV
JSC RADIOTECHKOMPLEKT
JSC RATEP
Aleksandr ZAKHAROV
Svetlana ZAKHAROVA
Nikita ZAKHAROV
Mariya ZAKHAROVA
Lavrenty ZAKHAROV
ID SOLUTION
Aeroscan
Orion
Yan Igorovich PETROVSKIY
Task Force Rusich
Charter Green Light
OOO MVIZION
Smart Trading Limited Sti
Sinno Electronics Co., Limited
Asia Pacific Links Limited
Xinghua Co., Limited
JSC DISPLAY DESIGN BUREAU
Avio Chem
Oil Tankers (SCF) Management
K&O Shipmanagement
Radiating World Shipping Services
Star Voyages Shipping
Sergei Seergevich Tregub
(Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
06 Dec 23. Ukraine aid in peril as Senate Republicans walk out of heated briefing. Republican Sens. Deb Fischer and Mitt Romney walked side by side Tuesday as they hastily left the Biden administration’s classified briefing on a massive defense spending package that includes Ukraine and Israel aid, both visibly agitated. Fischer of Nebraska and Romney of Utah were among numerous Republicans to exit the briefing early. By their account, administration officials did not provide answers to their questions on Ukraine beyond what’s publicly available in unclassified public reports, compounding their frustration with Democrats for refusing to meet their demands for immigration policy changes in the legislation.
The unrelated partisan fight over immigration policy threatens to derail the roughly $113 bn package that also includes funding for the U.S. southern border and Indo-Pacific security partners, all while the Biden administration rapidly runs out of the little remaining Ukraine aid. It raises serious questions about whether Congress will continue providing aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invasion despite previous Senate Republican support for a a bipartisan defense supplemental package.
“We’ve had it,” Fischer said. “When you have Deb Fischer who’s upset about this, they better be worried. Because I have backed everything.”
Fischer, who sits on the Armed Services and Appropriations committees, has championed aid to Kyiv despite mounting House Republican opposition. She vented to reporters about her misgivings following the briefing — some of which extended beyond the immigration debate and marked Ukraine policy grievances set in motion months ago.
“The point is there’s no answer to any questions down there,” Fischer told Defense News, criticizing the Biden administration for requesting Ukraine aid via a supplemental rather than in its base budget proposal earlier this year. “They should have realized the issues. We’ve been very aware of the issues that we have in Ukraine with our own munitions.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was expected to address senators at the briefing via video but had to cancel, though it was unclear why. During a visit to Washington in September, he warned senators that Ukraine will lose the war if foreign assistance does not continue.
The Biden administration has less than $5bn in presidential drawdown authority to continue transferring weapons to Ukraine from U.S. stockpiles and $1bn to replenish weapons it’s already sent.
The director of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, Shalanda Young, said Monday in a letter to congressional leaders that the administration would run out of these funds by the end of the year.
“Frankly after the last few minutes, I’m beginning to worry about the supplemental passing at all before the first of the year,” Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, the top Republican on the Armed Services Committee and another Ukraine aid proponent, said after the briefing.
Wicker, who stayed for most of the briefing, told Defense News he found the administration’s answers lacking on its previous reluctance to send certain munitions — complaints pro-Ukraine Republicans have had for more than a year.
“That said, we very much need to pass a supplemental assisting our Israeli friends, our Ukrainian friends, getting ready for deterring war in the Pacific, and addressing our southern border, and part and parcel to our defense needs is the very inadequate submarine-industrial base,” Wicker argued.
‘A Russian city or Ukrainian city?’
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., told reporters Tuesday that House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., informed him in a phone call last week that he would not advance Ukraine aid if it does not include a hard-line immigration bill House Republicans passed earlier this year.
Nonetheless, Schumer has scheduled the first procedural vote on the behemoth supplemental package for Wednesday. But that vote is expected to fail after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said the Republican caucus will vote against it without the immigration policy changes the party is demanding.
Notably, McConnell has spent most of the last year making the case for Ukraine aid to critics in his party and had previously supported a defense spending supplemental with the assistance to bypass the $886 bn caps laid out in the May debt ceiling agreement.
Heritage Action, the lobbying wing of the conservative Heritage Foundation, sent a letter to Johnson on Tuesday asking him to “strongly oppose” the Ukraine aid. The letter calls for no more assistance unless the Biden administration “provides a plan that defines the end goal in Ukraine, describes the expected U.S. commitment to achieve that goal, addresses the effects of the presidential drawdown authority on U.S. capabilities and assures further commitments from our European partners.”
Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said that “a cynic would say the goal here is to take down Ukraine funding.”
“We are making the decision right now as to whether Kyiv is a Russian city or Ukrainian city,” Murphy told Defense News. “My level of frustration about the lack of seriousness from Republicans is due to the stakes that we are dealing with. And the stakes are whether Ukraine exists 12 months from now or is a part of Russia.”
The Senate’s proposed bill would provide $13.5bn to continue arming Ukraine through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. It allocates another $15.1bn for the Defense Department to continue supporting Kyiv with military training, intelligence sharing and “an increased presence in the European Command area of responsibility,” per a Senate summary of the bill.
On top of that, the bill appropriates $24.5bn to replenish weapons that the U.S. has already sent to Ukraine and Israel through its stockpiles. It also sets aside another $15.3bn in Israel military aid and $2.8 bn to increase capacity for the munitions-industrial base.
The bill does not place conditions on aid to Israel despite conversations among Senate Democrats about doing so last week.
It also allocates $3bn at Wicker’s insistence to help prepare the beleaguered submarine-industrial base for the trilateral AUKUS agreement that would see the U.S. and Britain help Australia build a nuclear-powered submarine fleet. Wicker has promised to hold up two key AUKUS authorizations from the annual defense policy bill unless Congress appropriates that funding. (Source: C4ISR & Networks)
06 Dec 23. DIO fully committed to training Ukraine Armed Forces.
Today is Ukraine Armed Forces Day and DIO is proud to be playing a key role in supporting the UK-based training of thousands of Ukrainian volunteer recruits.
Urban Training Village has a complete makeover to ensure training for Ukrainian volunteers is as realistic as possible. Crown copyright.
As well as delivering the feeding and housing of trainees, our teams across the Defence Training Estate are working hard to ensure that the training, and training facilities, are as realistic and fully immersive as possible.
There are a total of six Defence Training Estate sites currently being used, spanning a total of 18,410 hectares across different parts of the UK – that’s equivalent to almost 45,500 football pitches.
Some of the training areas have been specifically adapted to deliver bespoke facilities to meet the specific needs of the Ukrainian trainees. At such sites, it’s a mammoth task, the building of Russian-style trench systems alone at one site required the excavation of 15,000 tonnes of material and 70 kilometres of wire.
One urban training village in East Anglia has undergone a complete makeover to ensure the training for the Ukrainian volunteers is as realistic as possible.
Captain Joe Heywood (4 SCOTS) is the Training Officer for the revamped village, he said: “This facility is used to replicate fighting in villages or built-up areas. What we have here is a really good replica of what the trainees would see in Ukraine. The realistic nature of this facility is really useful, it helps them to get a feel for moving about the terrain, building ‘muscle memory’ – it’s a very immerse experience for those training. It looks like a war-torn village, which really helps for when they arrive on the frontline back in Ukraine.”
As well as creating state-of-the-art training areas, DIO has also provided 50 classrooms to enable the delivery of lessons such as essential first aid and the theory behind basic combat skills.
The Training Estate is constantly poised to support pre-deployment training for our own personnel at short notice, so the training areas are running at a high tempo. DIO teams, along with Training Estate contractor Landmarc Support Services (Landmarc), play a vital role in enabling not only the training exercises but also ensuring that supporting infrastructure and facilities are available.
There has been a huge uplift in the less glamourous tasks delivered, with Landmarc working closely with DIO to manage the surge in catering, laundry and waste disposal.
Supporting the delivery of Ukraine training, in a year, there were 3,238,499 meals served, 259,128 bags of laundry cleaned and an additional 600,657kg of waste processed.
DIO Senior Training Safety Officer for the urban village, Smudge Smith, explained:
DIO is housing the troops, feeding the troops and we are giving them the safe place to train. We manage the access and availability of all the training facilities that the troops require so it’s a big task, even at this one site.
This urban training village has really enhanced the training, we have smoke generators, noise simulators, crashed vehicles, rubble, and that sort of thing. DIO has brought that in to give the soldiers under training a realistic but safe place to train. It’s all part of the support we can offer.
The training being delivered on our sites has so far helped to equip around 30,000 Ukrainian personnel with battle-proven skills and expertise. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
06 Dec 23. Zelensky abruptly cancels US congress appearance amid funding row. Several Republican senators walked out of a classified briefing on Ukraine, after President Volodymyr Zelensky unexpectedly cancelled his appearance to appeal for continued US funding.
Mr Zelensky had been due to update the senators on the latest developments in the conflict with Russia and press for them to support a procedural vote expected Wednesday on an emergency aid package that includes more than $60bn for Kyiv.
The cash has been held up for weeks by a dispute in Congress, as the White House has warned that existing funds will run out by the end of the year and that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin could win the war if lawmakers fail to act.
The briefing descended into a row over the border crisis. Utah’s Mitt Romney left early, confirming that “a number” of his Republican colleagues had followed suit, angry that they heard nothing on their demand that Ukraine aid be coupled with action on the migrant crisis at the US-Mexico border.
It comes as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the United States would be “responsible for Ukraine’s defeat” if Congress fails to approve the Biden administration’s latest multi-bn-dollar funding request for the war-torn country. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
06 Dec 23. Ukrainians prepare for a long war. Will the West stay the course?
• Summary
• No end in sight after more than 21 months of war
• Ukrainians highly dependent on Western military aid
• Ukrainian counteroffensive brought no big breakthrough
Oleksii Tilnenko hoped this would be the year Ukraine drove Russian forces out of swathes of occupied land. As 2023 draws to a close, his southern hometown of Kherson is still being pounded by shelling and the front line has barely budged.
Tilnenko, who fled Kherson last year and lives in Kyiv where he helps internally displaced people (IDPs), believes Russia is racing to rebuild its much larger armed forces to step up its war effort.
“The hope is the West can somehow mobilise, somehow fire up its defence industry to renew equipment and produce what’s needed to defend our ordinary citizens,” said the 36-year-old.
More than 21 months into the biggest conflict in Europe since World War Two, fighting rages with no end in sight and neither side has landed a telling blow on the battlefield.
Ukrainian soldiers, living in freezing trenches, acknowledge they are exhausted going into a second winter of full-scale war with a resource-rich, nuclear-armed superpower that has more than triple Ukraine’s population.
Ukrainians know they must secure Western military aid to carry on – and that it will be harder with the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza distracting global attention.
Russian troops, who occupy about 17.5% of Ukraine, are again on the offensive in the east after largely withstanding a Ukrainian counteroffensive that was unable to punch through sprawling defensive lines in the south and east.
The darkening outlook contrasts starkly with Kyiv’s buoyant mood a year ago, after Ukrainians defied expectations by beating back Russian troops around their capital before recapturing territory in the northeast and south, including Kherson city.
WHY IT MATTERS
The toll keeps mounting in a war that has already killed or wounded hundreds of thousands of people, destroyed Ukrainian cities, towns and villages, forced ms from their homes and placed hundreds of thousands more under occupation.
Drone and missile strikes are a part of daily life. In the northeastern city of Kharkiv, schools are being built underground so children can study in classrooms without dying in an air strike.
Tilnenko heads Crimea SOS, a group that helps Ukraine’s 5m IDPs. He says he has no plans to return to Kherson because of the constant threat from artillery and guided aerial bombs.
He feels Western military aid should have come faster, in larger volumes and in a less piecemeal fashion. Air power vital for the counteroffensive, he says, was sorely lacking this year and promised F-16 fighter jets have not been delivered.
The passage of vital military and financial assistance from the West is no longer happening smoothly.
U.S. President Joe Biden has made a Ukrainian victory a foreign policy goal as he campaigns for re-election in November 2024, but the fate of a $60 bn aid package proposed by Biden is uncertain because of opposition by some Republicans.
A separate, four-year 20bn euro ($21.75bn) European Union military aid proposal has also run into resistance from some bloc members.
The lack of significant Ukrainian headway on the battlefield this year could also hurt Biden politically in an election in which could herald a comeback by former President Donald Trump, who called on Congress this summer to withhold aid to Ukraine.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR 2024
Some Ukrainians, including Tilnenko, believe Russian President Vladimir Putin will use any let-up in fighting to build further defences and regenerate the Russian army for a new assault.
Putin may feel he can escalate Russia’s war effort further once, as expected, he has secured another six-year term in the Kremlin in an election next March.
Ukraine was also due to hold a presidential election in March, but this will not happen because of martial law. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy put an end to speculation that a workaround would be found last month, saying now was “not the time” for an election.
The strain of the war is likely to weigh on society and the political landscape over the coming year. Reforms underway to make army recruitment and conscription more efficient illustrate the sensitive but important issues the government must navigate.
Tilnenko says war fatigue is a fact of life.
“Everyone’s tired. The soldiers are tired, victims are tired, the IDPs are tired. But there’s no way out. We can’t just give up and say ‘okay, fine’. At the very least, too many people have died. We hope it’ll get easier. And we’ll see how it goes.” ($1 = 0.9197 euros)(Source: Reuters)
05 Dec 23. Visiting the secret Ukrainian drone testing site racing to keep up with Russian production. Short-range drones are one of the most effective weapons in the war with Russia, but they need to be thoroughly tested before they can be deployed.
Forces News has visited a secret Ukrainian drone testing site where one engineer warned Ukraine is struggling to keep up with Russian production.
Ukraine cannot match Russia in terms of conventional airpower, but has used attack drones to great effect.
But since the 2022 invasion, Russia has become more savvy in terms of countering Ukrainian drones as well as stepping up the production of its own fleet of uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Russian forces have deployed more jamming technology – and there are reports of Russian shopping centres being repurposed and turned into drone research laboratories and factories.
Our rifle is our brain
A Ukrainian drone engineer known only as “Maxim” told Forces News how his country was now producing far fewer drones compared with Russia.
“Russia produce thousands and thousands per week of every type of drone. Also the borders are open with China,” he said.
“The border is open, you can easily buy all components which you really need.”
With official Chinese parts in short supply, Ukraine is trying to make more of its own UAVs.
It has earmarked an extra £1bn of its defence budget next year to buy drones, with small volunteer groups across the country using their skills to help defend Ukraine.
This has seen them trying to make drones that can fly deeper, carry more payload and avoid detection.
Maxim told Forces News that it makes him smile when he sees the drones being used on Russian positions because it helps Ukraine “win this war”.
“We know that as engineers our rifle is our brain,” he explained.
Some of the UAVs cost just a few hundred pounds to make, but in the right hands they can disable or even destroy Russian equipment worth ms.
This summer’s counter-offensive accelerated Ukraine’s use of small attack drones which, depending on their size, could be armed with the likes of an RPG warhead or fragmentation grenade.
One of the larger drones can only be flown at night as it is loud and heavy. This makes it too easy for Russian forces to spot during the day, so the operator waits until after dark, controlling the UAV with a high-tech thermal camera.
However Ukraine’s use of drones has not come without cost as several Ukrainian drone operators have been killed due to their payload falling off and exploding, so it is now essential that each attack drone is thoroughly tested before being deployed.
Hundreds of companies are now building drones across Ukraine, with each unit being checked to ensure that its avionics and electronics are working properly – and that any munitions it carries are secure.
Maxim is one of a number of young men, many engineering students and all volunteers, who are are carrying out tests to ensure the drones are both functional and safe for the operators to fly.
The back of van is used as a makeshift control room, from which the volunteers can evaluate how each drone flies, what payload it can carry and how far.
In Ukraine, drones are no longer a hobby, but a technological frontline.
(Source: forces.net)
05 Dec 23. Letter to Congressional Leadership Regarding the Need for Urgent Action to Support Ukraine’s Defense
The Honorable Mike Johnson
Speaker of the House of Representatives
Washington, DC 20515
Dear Mr. Speaker,
I want to thank Congress for the resources provided to date for Ukraine and other critical national security needs. I write to you today not only to be clear about how that money has been spent and the ways this investment has halted Russia’s advances in Ukraine, helped Ukraine achieve significant military victories, and revitalized the American Defense Industrial Base (DIB)—but to express the acute urgency we face as Congress weighs whether we continue to fight for freedom across the globe or we ignore the lessons we have learned from history and let Putin and autocracy prevail.
I want to be clear: without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from U.S. military stocks. There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment. We are out of money—and nearly out of time.
Cutting off the flow of U.S. weapons and equipment will kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield, not only putting at risk the gains Ukraine has made, but increasing the likelihood of Russian military victories. Already, our packages of security assistance have become smaller and the deliveries of aid have become more limited. If our assistance stops, it will cause significant issues for Ukraine. While our allies around the world have stepped up to do more, U.S. support is critical and cannot be replicated by others.
To date, you have supported $111bn in supplemental funding to support Ukraine and critical national security needs. Of that, $67 bn, approximately 60 percent of the Ukraine supplemental funding that Congress has previously authorized, has bolstered our DIB in America or supported DOD and intelligence operations. That has improved our own military readiness since DOD is buying new equipment to replace what we are sending Ukraine, jumpstarting and expanding production lines, and is supporting good-paying jobs in dozens of states across the country.
As of mid-November, DOD has used 97 percent of the $62.3bn it received, and State has used 100 percent of the $4.7bn in military assistance it received. Approximately $27.2bn, or 24 percent, has been used for economic assistance and civilian security assistance (such as demining) to Ukraine, which is just as essential to Ukraine’s survival as military assistance. State and USAID have used 100 percent of this amount. If Ukraine’s economy collapses, they will not be able to keep fighting, full stop. Putin understands this well, which is why Russia has made destroying Ukraine’s economy central to its strategy—which you can see in its attacks against Ukraine’s grain exports and energy infrastructure.
Of the approximately $10bn in emergency funding for State and USAID humanitarian assistance, nearly $2.3bn has gone directly toward humanitarian needs of those displaced or vulnerable populations inside Ukraine, and approximately $500m to support refugees from Ukraine seeking safety in neighboring countries in the region. The remainder of the funding, approximately three quarters, has supported needs of vulnerable populations around the world who have been made victims by Putin’s use of food as a weapon in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the resulting impacts on global food security. This funding is now depleted.
The President’s most recent national security supplemental request will build on our successful efforts to date and will direct over $50 bn into our nation’s DIB, which builds on the funding that has already been invested in manufacturing lines across 35 states. While we cannot predict exactly which U.S companies will be awarded new contracts, we do know the funding will be used to acquire advanced capabilities to defend against attacks on civilians in Israel and Ukraine—for example, air defense systems built in Alabama, Texas, and Georgia and vital subcomponents sourced from nearly all 50 states. We will modernize vital munitions and equipment like Javelins made in Alabama; Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) made in West Virginia, Arkansas and Texas; tactical vehicles made in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana; and 155mm artillery shells made in Pennsylvania, Arkansas, and Iowa and many other states.
I must stress that helping Ukraine defend itself and secure its future as a sovereign, democratic, independent, and prosperous nation advances our national security interests. It prevents larger conflict in the region that could involve NATO and put U.S. forces in harm’s way and deters future aggression, making us all safer. As President Biden has said, when dictators do not pay a price for their aggression, they will cause more chaos and death and destruction. They just keep on going, and the cost and the threats to America and to the world will keep rising. The path that Congress chooses will reverberate for many years to come.
We are out of money to support Ukraine in this fight. This isn’t a next year problem. The time to help a democratic Ukraine fight against Russian aggression is right now. It is time for Congress to act.
Sincerely,
Shalanda D. Young
Identical Letter Sent to:
The Honorable Mike Johnson
The Honorable Hakeem Jeffries
The Honorable Charles Schumer
The Honorable Mitch McConnell
(Source: White House/Paul Hough)
05 Dec 23. Russian air defence systems destroy 41 Ukraine-launched drones -Russian defence ministry. Russian air defence systems destroyed or intercepted a total of 41 Ukraine-launched drones overnight and early morning on Tuesday, the Russian defence ministry said.
Twenty-six of the drones were destroyed over Russian territory, and 15 were intercepted over the Sea of Azov and the Crimean Peninsula, the ministry said in a statement on its Telegram channel.
The ministry did not say whether there was any damage caused by the attack or falling debris. Reuters could not independently verify the report. There was no immediate comment from Ukraine. (Source: Reuters)
04 Dec 23. US aid to Ukraine will run out ‘by end of month.’ US aid to Ukraine will run out by the end of the month unless a new funding package is agreed, the White House has said.
Shalanda Young, director of the office of management and budget, told Congress and Senate leaders that “we are out of money and nearly out of time” in a publicly-released letter.
Republicans in Congress are stonewalling a funding package proposed by Joe Biden which would provide £48bn ($61bn) in new aid for Ukraine.
“I want to be clear: without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from US military stocks,” Mrs Young wrote.
“There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment.”
Ukraine has been desperately pushing for more foreign aid as Russian forces step up attacks in the east after holding back Kyiv’s much-vaunted counteroffensive. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
04 Dec 23. Despite Ukraine War Needs, Arms Sales Troubled by Production Woes. Many Western arms companies failed to ramp up production in 2022 despite a strong increase in demand for weapons and military equipment, a watchdog group said Monday, adding that labor shortages, soaring costs and supply chain disruptions had been exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In its Top 100 of such firms, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI, said the arms revenue of the world’s largest arms-producing and military services companies last year stood at $597 bn — a 3.5% drop from 2021.
“Many arms companies faced obstacles in adjusting to production for high-intensity warfare,” said Lucie Beraud-Sudreau, director of the independent institute’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program.
SIPRI said the revenues of the 42 U.S. companies on the list — accounting for 51% of total arms sales — fell by 7.9% to $302 bn in 2022. Of those, 32 recorded a fall in year-on-year arms revenue, most of them citing ongoing supply chain issues and labor shortages stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nan Tian, a senior researcher with SIPRI, said that “we are beginning to see an influx of new orders linked to the war in Ukraine.”
He cited some major U.S. companies, including Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies, and said that because of “existing order backlogs and difficulties in ramping up production capacity, the revenue from these orders will probably only be reflected in company accounts in two to three years’ time.”
Companies in Asia and the Middle East saw their arms revenues grow significantly in 2022, the institute said in its assessment, saying it demonstrated “their ability to respond to increased demand within a shorter time frame.” SIPRI singled out Israel and South Korea.
“However, despite the year-on-year drop, the total Top 100 arms revenue was still 14% higher in 2022 than in 2015 — the first year for which SIPRI included Chinese companies in its ranking.
SIPRI also said that countries placed new orders late in the year and the time lag between orders and production meant that the surge in demand was not reflected in these companies’ 2022 revenues.
“However, new contracts were signed, notably for ammunition, which could be expected to translate into higher revenue in 2023 and beyond,” Beraud-Sudreau said. (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Voice of America News)
04 Dec 23. Downed Russian Shahed was using a Ukrainian SIM Card.
One of Russia’s downed Shahed drones was reportedly found last week with a Ukrainian SIM card inside, suggesting that the technology was used to pilot the explosive attack drone, according to war analysts.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington, DC-based think tank, said in an assessment published on Thursday that Russian forces were reportedly using SIM cards from Kyivstar, the largest telecommunications operator in Ukraine, “to control Shahed drones” in Moscow’s grinding war against Kyiv.
ISW cited a Ukrainian source that reported on Wednesday that “a downed Russian Shahed drone included a Kyivstar SIM card, which reportedly allows Russian forces to exploit the Kyivstar mobile network to track the drone’s location and change its flight path.”
Independent Russian media outlet Meduza reported that Kyivstar said in a post to X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter, that it is working with law enforcement agencies to prevent similar incidents from happening in the future.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ignat said Ukraine is probing what Russia’s military’s capabilities are with a Ukrainian SIM card and access to the internet on Ukrainian territory as well as whether drones could be operated in this way, according to Meduza. (Source: UAS VISION/Business Insider)
03 Dec 23. BAE Systems resumes production of M2 Bradley and M777.
Tom Arseneault, CEO of BAE Systems in the United States, stated this in an interview with Defense News. Arsenault shared that the company is currently working on replacing combat vehicles and ammunition, which were transferred to Ukraine as military assistance.
For example, the United States Army increased orders for AMPV (Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicle) armored personnel carriers, which are considered a replacement for ?113.
It is also reported that BAE Systems is working to resume production of M777 155mm howitzers, the demand for which was cut after the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
“Now, given the elevated visibility of the importance of artillery in conflicts like this, it received some renewed interest. The Army is working with us to reconstitute that,” Arseneault said.
When asked about the review of the feasibility of producing some weapons, Arseneault replied that the company had received an order for about 100 new Bradley M2.
“And while we planned to wind down production of Bradley over the next few years, we have orders for hundreds of other, newer machines,” he noted.
Defense News reporters asked the BAE CEO about the combination of means of different technological levels in the Russian-Ukrainian war and their future. Arseneault replied that no one could have predicted this, and the company is ready for new challenges.
M777 howitzer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Photo from open sources
He compared FPV drones to the threat of improvised explosive devices in Afghanistan and Iraq, calling them “flying IEDs.”
“In the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, there was the rise of the improvised explosive device. That sort of came out of nowhere and became a real problem. Well, now there are flying IEDs,” Arseneault replied.
Arseneault also complained about delays in the adoption of defense spending and the complications of the work of the military industry associated with this.
“Industry has gotten accustomed to this delay, and the DoD has as well in the way they time their spending. But especially when the demand is up, and they have these needs on multiple fronts, it’s a big problem. While it has not manifested itself yet, the longer this pushes out into 2024, it will borderline cripple a number of services in terms of their plans,” the CEO shared.
Militarnyi has repeatedly reported on expanding the production capacity of defense companies and increasing the rate of armament production.
However, at the same time, the mass rearmament of European countries causes queues and disruptions in the timing of arms supplies for both Ukraine and its allies. (Source: News Now/https://mil.in.ua/en/news)
04 Dec 23. Russia launches 23 drones, cruise missiles overnight on Ukraine – Ukraine’s Air Force. Russia launched 23 drones and a cruise missile overnight on Ukraine, Ukraine’s air force said on Monday, adding that its air defence systems destroyed the missile and 18 of the drones before they reached their targets. Anti-aircraft defense was deployed in at least 9 regions of Ukraine, the air force said on the Telegram messaging app. Reuters could not independently verify the report.
The air force did not provide details on what happened to the drones that were not destroyed or whether there was any damage in result of the attack. (Source: Reuters)
02 Dec 23. Disputes within the EU over money and Ukraine’s future are endangering crucial pledges to Kyiv made months ago — just when the flow of US financial and military support for Ukraine has abruptly stalled in a politically divided Congress. EU member states are far from reaching a deal over topping up the bloc’s joint budget — including €50bn for Ukraine — ahead of a summit in Brussels on December 14-15, said officials involved in the discussions. EU efforts to reach a compromise are being hampered by the victory of a far-right party in last month’s Dutch election and a recent German court ruling curbing the government’s borrowing. A budget agreement would be “very, very difficult”, a senior official said. Meanwhile, the Biden administration’s proposed $60bn package is struggling to pass through Congress. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Friday again vowed to veto the start of Ukraine’s EU membership talks, telling public radio it was “contrary to the interests of several member states” and accession might only be possible “many years from now”. “We are in a good enough shape to dare say so, no matter the pressure we come under,” he said. A failure to approve long-term funding, a separate €20bn facility for weapons purchases and the start of accession negotiations would be a hammer blow to Kyiv after the failure of its summer counteroffensive and growing concern about faltering western support. Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, last week described the EU summit as an “existential moment” for her country. “It is crucial that the continued support for Ukraine remains and that we Europeans play our role,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo told the Financial Times. Ukraine has warned that the uncertainty over US and European support packages is putting the country’s “macro-financial stability” at risk. The €50bn proposed by the EU is designed to keep Kyiv solvent to 2027. “It is a moment of truth,” said an EU official. “If you say you stand by Ukraine, you have to step up to the plate.” Germany and other states have vowed to give Brussels no additional funds beyond that required for Kyiv, while others are demanding extra cash for domestically sensitive issues such as migration. Orbán also opposes the funding package. EU officials note that he has relented on Ukraine decisions before and are trying to assess whether he has a price for his support, including the release of some of the €22bn in EU funds blocked by Brussels over rule of law concerns. EU officials last week indicated that the European Commission was close to unblocking up to €10bn for Budapest, as reforms enacted earlier this year had strengthened judicial independence. However, Hungarian officials insist there is no link between Ukraine and the funds issue, and EU officials and diplomats say that this time the Hungarian leader seems more implacable. “There’s a lot of fog that needs to be lifted in the next weeks. And today there’s so much fog that I don’t see very far away what’s coming,” said De Croo. Recommended Alec Russell Ukraine’s long war — and how to win it Brussels’ Ukraine funding has become a political football in a wider debate over the EU’s budget priorities, due to the decision by the commission to combine the Kyiv support in a proposal with other funding requests to top up its 2021-27 budget. The €50bn for Ukraine — made up of €17bn in grants and €33bn in loans — has been bundled up with requests for €15bn in new money for migration, €10bn for investments in “strategic technologies” and almost €19bn to pay off interest on the EU’s joint borrowing. At the last EU leaders’ summit in October, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed the commission’s calculations as “a comic”, according to multiple people briefed on the private debate. Officials said EU negotiations over the budget were always going to be difficult but a compromise was still possible. A revised package is expected to be proposed before the summit. “I think the doom and gloom around this issue is vastly over-exaggerated,” said one EU official involved in the discussions. “We are not going to allow Ukraine to experience a sovereign default.” But resistance from finance ministries wary of additional spending has been stiffened by the decision of Germany’s constitutional court striking down the use of pandemic emergency borrowing facilities for future green investment, and by the victory of far-right, anti-EU politician Geert Wilders in the Dutch election. (Source: FT.com)
02 Dec 23. Russia’s military has bought hundreds of Chinese all-terrain vehicles popular in the US, in a move that risks heightening tensions between the west and Beijing over President Xi Jinping’s tacit backing for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s purchases open up the buggy manufacturer Shandong Odes Industry to retaliation from authorities in the US, where the vehicles are popular among farmers and powersports enthusiasts. China has insisted it is not selling military equipment to Russia, but Ukraine’s allies are concerned about sales of non-lethal goods useful for defence industries or on the battlefield. Russian President Vladimir Putin inspected the Desertcross 1000-3 utility terrain vehicle earlier this month alongside defence minister Sergei Shoigu, who said the Chinese-made buggy “was extremely in demand”. Social media footage has shown Russian soldiers using them in the field. The Russian military was already fielding 537 “basic” versions of Shandong Odes’s Desertcross 1000-3 and planned to buy another 1,500 with “additional options”, state newswire Tass reported, citing a panel the defence ministry put up next to the vehicle seen by Putin. In a clear warning last month, US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen said Russia was “dependent on willing third-country individuals and entities to resupply its military and perpetuate its heinous war against Ukraine”. “We will not hesitate in holding them accountable,” Yellen said. Russia’s use of the vehicles comes as Putin’s military increasingly turns to Chinese suppliers for equipment needed to maintain its invasion of Ukraine, and highlights the dilemma facing Chinese companies whose sales to Russia could expose them to retaliation from Washington. Shandong Odes would be particularly vulnerable to such retaliation because of its high volume of US sales. Experts said the use of the vehicles also reflected Russia’s limited military manufacturing capacity as it deploys the non-armoured buggies in the field. A Desertcross 1000-3 utility terrain vehicle © Reuters Shandong Odes claims to have hundreds of dealers around the world including in the US and Europe, where it sells under the Aodes brand. There are more than 100 dealerships licensed to sell Aodes-branded vehicles in the US to a market ranging from ranchers to holidaymakers. It is not known how many they sell, but bills of lading show Shandong Odes as having shipped 4,200 heavy items to the US that were labelled as “low speed” or “all-terrain” vehicles in the past year. Aodes is the top-selling brand for such buggies at Play-N-Around Motorsports in Pinehurst, Texas, and the US version of the Desertcross 1000-3 — which sells for about $20,000 in the US — is one of the models it offers. But while general manager Branden Williamson said he was “absolutely” aware the vehicles were being used by Russian troops, he added that it would only be an issue if resulting sanctions forced up prices. “It doesn’t make a difference to me that another company is using their product for [the Russian] military,” Williamson said. Russian customs records show Shandong Odes has exported vehicles to a number of civilian buyers. They suggest it sent 137 Desertcross vehicles in March and April — worth about $1.6m in sales. The principal buyer was Formula 7, a Russian motorsports company. Shandong Odes declined to comment and its US headquarters did not respond to a request for comment. A person close to the company denied that it sold the vehicles to the Russian military or Russian dealers. Pavel Luzin, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation who studies the Russian military, said Russia could have bought the vehicles on the secondary market without Shandong Odes’s knowledge. “They might be better than the motorcycles or old [Soviet-made vehicles] Russian soldiers are widely using now, but no more than that,” Luzin said. “This is yet more demonstration that Russia can’t produce that much equipment or goods for its army.” In numerous high-level visits to Beijing in recent months, European leaders have called on China to use its close ties with Russia to persuade it to withdraw from Ukraine. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president Charles Michel are set to visit Beijing this week for the first in-person EU-China summit in four years, which is expected to involve tough talks on Ukraine and trade. But Xi and Putin continue to hail their deep friendship and growing trade ties. China has insisted it is not selling military equipment to Russia, but Ukraine’s allies are concerned about sales of non-lethal goods useful for defence industries or the battlefield. Chinese exports of lorries to Russia have surged, freeing Moscow’s domestic producers to focus on supporting the war effort. In January 2022, on the eve of the full-scale invasion, official Chinese data suggests Russia bought $32m worth of heavy goods vehicles and trailer trucks. In July, such imports peaked at almost a bn dollars. Last month, they were worth $378m. (Source: FT.com)
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Military And Security Developments
Dec 08.
Dec 07.
* BAKHMUT: Russian sources have continued to report over the last 24-48 hours that their forces are making steady progress at the flanks of Bakhmut, though there remains limited visual confirmation at present. Russian milbloggers reported on 6 December that Russian forces gained the initiative around Bakhmut a week ago and are attacking in three key directions: north-west of Bakhmut around the Berkhivka Reservoir, located two miles (3km) north-west of Bakhmut; Khromove, on the western outskirts of the town; and Klishchiivka, located six miles (10km) south-west of Bakhmut. However, the extent of recent Russian advances remains unclear at present.
* DONETSK: Earlier on 7 December, Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun stated that Russian forces intensified offensive operations in the Avdiivka and Marinka sectors. Shtupun claimed that over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces repelled around 34 attacks in the Avdiivka sector. Meanwhile, geolocated footage from 6 December indicates that Russian troops made limited progress in the industrial zone south-east of Avdiivka. On 7 December, a Russian milblogger said that intense fighting is taking place in Stepove, where Ukrainian forces advanced according to geolocated footage from 5 December. Stepove is located three miles (5km) north-west of Avdiivka.
* KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
* SOUTHERN: Russian sources have claimed that on 5 December Russian forces advanced up to 0.6 miles (1km) near Verbove, located six miles (10km) east of Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast), though this remains unconfirmed. Russian forces are continuing to counter-attack along the southern Zaporizhzhia front, which together with Russia’s fixed defences in the region, are seemingly containing Ukrainian advances.
* OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 6 and 7 December, Russian milbloggers reported that Russian forces have continued to launch assaults in Petropavlivka and Synkivka, located around five miles (8km) north-east of Kupiansk. The milbloggers said that Ukraine is sending reinforcements to the Kupiansk sector, where its forces are struggling to hold positions. However, at present the frontline remains broadly static, with limited confirmed Russian advances.
* STRIKES: Overnight on 6-7 December, Ukrainian forces intercepted 15 out of 18 Shahed-136/131 drones launched by Russia. The attack targeted Khmelnytskyi and Odesa oblasts. Local sources reported explosions in Khmelnytskyi oblast. Odesa governor Oleh Kiper reported that the attack destroyed grain storage facilities in Ukraine’s Danube port of Izmail. Since Moscow withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) in July, Russian forces have systematically targeted port and grain infrastructure.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
* ELECTIONS: Russia’s upper chamber of parliament, the Federation Council, voted unanimously on 7 December to set the date of the presidential election for 17 March 2024. It will be held over three days (15-17 March). Valentina Matviyenko, the head of the Federation Council, said the decision effectively launches the start of the election campaign. President Vladimir Putin is likely to announce his bid for re-election in the near term.
* ELECTIONS: Russia’s Central Election Commission said a decision to hold elections in the Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine will be made by 12 December after consultations with the relevant departments and authorities. However, Matviyenko has said the vote will go ahead in the Russian-annexed Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Although Russia does not fully control these regions, the vote will likely go ahead despite security risks in an attempt by Moscow to legitimise its control over them.
* ASSASSINATIONS: On 6 December, international news outlets reported that a former pro-Russia Ukrainian lawmaker who defected to Russia, Illia Kyva, was found dead in Moscow oblast. Ukrainian media reported, citing their sources in law enforcement, that he was assassinated during a special operation conducted by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU). It remains unclear precisely how the assassination was conducted.
* ASSASSINATIONS: A Russian Senator, Konstantin Kosachev, said on 7 December that committees of Russia’s Federation Council have been instructed to prepare proposals to protect political and public figures from Ukrainian attacks after Kyva’s death. While the SBU’s involvement cannot be officially confirmed, it is highly credible given Kyiv has both the intent and capability to conduct such operations within Russia. Further high-profile assassination attempts are highly likely in the coming months.
* SANCTIONS: On 6 December, leaders of the G7 countries agreed to impose a direct import ban on Russian diamonds starting in January 2024. On the same day, Canada announced it will also ban direct imports of Russian diamonds. Russian diamond exports account for 8.3% of global diamond exports, reaching USD 3.8bn in 2022. As such, the G7 announcement underscores the West’s efforts to curtail Moscow’s commodity export revenues and, more broadly, hamper its ability to finance its war in Ukraine.
* RECRUITMENT: On 6 December, the BBC reported that Russia has been arresting migrants attempting to cross the border with Finland and trying to enrol them in its military forces forcefully. A BBC article from 6 December reported the Nepalese police arrested ten individuals recruiting Nepalese citizens for Russia’s military. Due to the highly attritional nature of the war in Ukraine, Moscow will continue to try to recruit foreigners and resort to crypto-mobilisation strategies, disproportionately targeting migrants and ethnic minorities in Russia.
FORECAST
AID: On 6 December, US Senate Republicans blocked an emergency spending bill worth USD 110.5bn for new security assistance for Ukraine and Israel due to their demands for tougher border measures. The bill gained 49 votes in favour and 51 against, falling short of the 60 votes necessary for a debate in the Senate. All Republicans in the Senate voted against the measure. Senate Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer, stated that he voted against it so that he could re-introduce the measure in the future.
While this marks a notable blow to the Biden administration’s timeline to aid Ukraine, some lawmakers are reportedly considering upcoming government funding deadlines in January and February as potential opportunities to strike a deal. However, there are growing concerns in Kyiv and the Biden administration that entrenched scepticism over continuing to aid Ukraine among many Republicans could significantly undermine Ukraine’s ability to sustain its war effort in the short-to-medium term. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy assesses that the volume of new aid promised to Kyiv between August and October fell to the lowest figure since January 2022 – a month before the full-scale invasion. This underscores the growing stakes for Ukraine and the Biden administration in securing this latest round of military assistance; Ukraine’s 2024 military strategy will remain heavily dependent upon the level of US military support provided.
Following the failed vote, US President Joe Biden said that it would be ‘long remembered’, adding that any disruption in the US’ ability to supply Ukraine benefits Russia. Biden said hardline Republicans are holding funding for Kyiv hostage to their ‘extreme partisan’ border policies. However, he also indicated willingness to ‘make significant compromises on the border’ if that is what is required to get the package through Congress. Such a compromise will increase the likelihood of some USD 60 bn in aid to Ukraine passing in early 2024, but persistent Ukraine scepticism among Republicans will sustain the risk of further delays.
The Biden administration continues to demonstrate its long-term commitment to Ukraine despite the ongoing budgetary issues. The US announced on 6 December a USD 175 m defence package for Ukraine under previously directed drawdowns. However, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it would be one of the last military aid packages for Kyiv if Congress fails to pass additional funding. It includes air defence munitions, additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rockets Systems (HIMARS) and artillery ammunition, among other elements.
The White House also announced further plans to strengthen defence co-operation and co-production with Ukraine. While this will likely be a longer-term initiative, it will assist Ukraine in building a more self-reliant defence industrial base. Although Ukraine will remain reliant on Western aid for the foreseeable future, it will enhance resiliency in the long term amid disputes over sustaining the flow of assistance.
Dec 06.
* BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
* DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 5 December indicates that Russian forces progressed along the section of the railway line north of the Avdiivka Coke Plant in north-west Avdiivka. At the same time, a Ukrainian military reporter claimed that Ukrainian forces counter-attacked north of the Avdiivka Coke Plant and dislodged Russian forces from two positions. Geolocated footage from 4 December indicates that Ukrainian troops advanced east of the section of the railway line north of the Avdiivka Coke Plant. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that as of 5 December, Russian forces expanded their control around the Avdiivka Coke Plant.
* DONETSK: Meanwhile, on 6 December, the spokesperson of Ukraine’s 79th Air Assault Brigade, Yaroslav Chepurnyi, said that Ukrainian forces hold a small portion of Marinka, with most of the city under Russian control. Chepurnyi stressed that on the morning of 6 December, Russian forces have increased shelling and air strikes against Ukrainian positions. According to the Ukrainian military official, the city is in ruins as a result of the intense fighting.
* KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
* SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
* OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
* STRIKES: Overnight on 5-6 December, Russia launched a large-scale drone strike, involving 48 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukraine’s air defences reportedly shot down 41 drones. The strikes targeted Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
* STRIKES: The latest Russian strike underscores Moscow’s growing drone capabilities and efforts to innovate. On 6 December, the UK Defence Intelligence (DI) reported that since mid-2023, Russia has most likely increased its stocks of Iranian-supplied Shahed drones and ramped up domestic production of similar drones. The UK DI further stressed that Moscow has almost certainly been including improvements to its drones based on operational experience. Such improvements include using SIM cards and 4G modems to improve real-time guidance by using cell towers and reducing reliance on satellite navigation. Other modifications also include painting drones in black to make them harder to identify at night visually.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
* ESPIONAGE: On 5 December, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller disclosed that Russia rejected a recent ‘significant proposal’ to secure the release of two detained US citizens. Miller said Washington DC had offered the deal with the attempt to free Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reporter Evan Gershkovich and former US Marine Paul Whelan, but did not provide specific details on the proposal. However, he noted that the State Department has pressed the importance of this case through a number of channels and made a number of proposals that have ultimately been unsuccessful.
* ESPIONAGE: Whelan was arrested by the Russian authorities in 2018; he was convicted of espionage in 2020 and jailed for 16 years. Whelan and the US government have denied that he is a spy. Ultimately, there is a realistic-to-likely possibility the Russian authorities are refusing to release the two men to use them as potential bargaining chips and/or to deter other Western citizens from conducting perceived espionage activities within Russia. The risk of arbitrary detention for foreign citizens (particularly those from the UK and US) will remain high in the medium-to-long term.
* ELECTIONS: On 7 December, Russia’s upper house of parliament, the Federation Council, will consider a resolution setting the date for the Russian presidential elections for 17 March 2024. Senator Andrei Klishas said this date marks the beginning of the period during which the Federation Council can call for the holding of presidential elections.
* ELECTIONS: Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold his annual end-of-year press conference and televised call-in show on 14 December in a combined format. Putin has not yet officially announced his candidacy for the presidential elections but he could realistically announce his bid to run on this date or ahead of it. The Kremlin is likely to use the event to outline what issues Putin will seek to prioritise during a subsequent term in office. For further analysis on the 2024 Russian presidential election, please see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 30 August 2023.
* RECRUITMENT: On 6 December, the BBC reported that Nepal’s police detained ten individuals in Kathmandu for recruiting Nepalese citizens for the Russian armed forces. According to police, the recruits were allegedly sent to Russia on tourist visas via the UAE. On 5 December, the BBC reported that six Nepalese citizens died in Ukraine fighting for Russia since the beginning of the war. The report claimed that the Nepalese recruits were promised money and simplified Russian citizenship.
* RECRUITMENT: On 5 December, the BBC reported that it has evidence that 254 foreign citizens died fighting for Russia in the war in Ukraine, including from Nepal, Cuba and Somalia. Reports have also indicated that Moscow’s military efforts have been disproportionately targeting Central Asian migrants in Russia. Russia’s recruitment of foreign nationals reflects Moscow’s crypto-mobilisation strategy aiming to satisfy its growing needs for combatants to continue its highly attritional war while avoiding a new wave of mobilisation.
FORECAST
AID: Some US Republican Senators reportedly stormed out of a classified briefing on 5 December addressing the White House’s request for aid for Israel and Ukraine. The closed-door briefing was led by the US secretaries of defence, state, as well as the director of national intelligence and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff. Although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was expected to join virtually to make an appeal for additional aid, he did not attend due to ‘something’ happening last-minute.
Senators from both parties told news outlets that the briefing collapsed after Republicans began pressing about border issues. Republican Senator Kevin Cramer said people left because they considered it to be a ‘waste of time’. Another Republican Senator, Josh Hawley, claimed it was the most heated briefing in the sensitive compartmented information facility (SCIF) to date. The faltered briefing underscores the importance of firmly addressing border security issues for Republicans.
US President Joe Biden said on 5 December that the prospect of allowing aid to lapse is ‘just wrong’. Biden said that the failure to support Ukraine is against the US’ interests and vowed that his administration will secure funding for Kyiv. However, intra-governmental tensions and divisions over whether to continue aiding Ukraine will likely continue to represent significant barriers for the provision of assistance in the coming months.
The Senate is expected to hold a procedural vote later today (6 December) on a national security package, though the fractious briefing has likely lowered the prospect of it passing in the near term. Democrats in the US Senate unveiled the package, which is worth about USD 111bn, on 5 December; it provides more than USD 15 bn in support for Ukraine, including military training and intelligence data sharing, among other elements. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, despite being in favour of continuing to arm Ukraine, has urged Republicans to vote against moving on the national security package to emphasise that Republicans insist on meaningful changes to border security. However, there is also a realistic possibility that the urgency of the matter and repercussions of not passing the package could result in it being passed.
Dec 05.
- BAKHMUT: Russian sources have continued to claim incremental advances to the north-west, west and south-west of Bakhmut over the last 24 hours, though there remains limited evidence to confirm the extent of Russia’s progress. It is clear that Russian forces are increasing the intensity of their attacks across a broad front, with incremental gains amid fierce fighting around Bakhmut and Klishchiivka in particular, about six miles (10km) south-west of Bakhmut.
- DONETSK: On 5 December, the UK Defence Intelligence (DI) stated that Russian forces have made ‘creeping advances’ through the ruins of Marinka over the past few weeks. Russia likely controls most of the built-up area, located roughly 12 miles (20km) south-west of Donetsk city. According to the UK DI, Russian offensive operations in the Marinka are part of Moscow’s autumn offensive efforts aimed at broadening Russian control over the remaining parts of Donetsk oblast. Meanwhile, further to the north-east along this axis, geolocated footage from December 4 shows Russian forces advancing near the reservoir area directly north of Avdiivka. Additional footage indicated Russian forces progressed within Stepove, three miles (5km) north-west of Avdiivka.
- KHERSON: Geolocated footage in recent days indicates that Ukrainian forces have established a small foothold on Bilohrudnyi island and are attacking the village of Bilohrudove, seven miles (11km) south-west of Kherson city. Ukrainian forces have been undertaking various island hopping operations in recent months, with many remaining highly contested and presenting both sides with difficult operating conditions. Further east, heavy fighting continues to take place around the key Ukrainian beachhead near Krynky, located 22 miles (36km) north-east of Kherson city, though Ukrainian attempts to expand its position on the left bank are seemingly being contained.
- SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
- OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
- STRIKES: Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that air defences intercepted 41 drones over Crimea and the Sea of Azov overnight on 4-5 December. The strike targeted eastern Crimea and forced Russian authorities to close the Kerch Strait Bridge temporarily. A prominent Russian milblogger reported that the drones targeted an oil facility near Feodosia and the Chauda Cape in the southern part of the Kerch peninsula in Crimea. The milblogger said the strike was likely an attempt to probe Russian air defences in the Crimean peninsula in preparation for a strike which would include missiles. He claimed that Ukraine recently received a batch of Shadow-Scalp missiles in Starokostyantyniv (Khmelnytskyi oblast) – the location of the main Ukrainian air base for Shadow Storm cruise missile carriers.
- STRIKES: Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Air Force stated that Russia launched 17 Shahed-136/131 drones and six S-300 anti-aircraft missiles in the last 24 hours. The attack targeted regions in Western Ukraine, including Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv and Ternopil oblasts. Ukraine’s air defences intercepted ten drones. According to local authorities, the strike damaged infrastructure facilities in Lviv oblast.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- SECURITY: Ukraine’s presidential office announced on 4 December that Kyiv has begun the first round of negotiations with the EU on security commitments. Ukrainian Deputy Presidential Office head, Ihor Zhovkva, met with Charles Fries, the Deputy Secretary General for Peace, Security and Defence of the European External Action Service. The consultations followed up on the G7’s joint declaration to provide Ukraine long-term security guarantees (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 13 July 2023). The parties exchanged views on approaches to future security commitments from the bloc, focusing on security and defence. Although no further specifics were provided, the consultations underscore the EU’s efforts to provide long-term security assurances to Kyiv.
- DESTABILISATION: Finnish media reported on 4 December that Russia planned to disrupt Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO. According to a secret intelligence report, an unspecified Russian intelligence service highlighted that demonstrations in Sweden following Quran-burning incidents increased the fear of radical Islam in EU countries. Russian intelligence operatives allegedly called for ethno-religious tensions to be fuelled further (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 17 July 2023). The alleged goal was to increase friction between Turkey, European and NATO member states. Finland’s Security Intelligence Service (SUPO) confirmed it was aware of the Russian intelligence service’s efforts to incite demonstrations in Finland, though the report did not indicate whether any plans were successful.
- DESTABILISATION: The report allegedly listed different methods which Russian intelligence services used within Europe. Among these were plans for protests mocking Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an across major European cities. The report allegedly mentions using as much anti-Islam and anti-Erdo?an graffiti as possible in well-known public spaces and spreading the protests on social media. While the veracity of the report cannot be confirmed, the allegations are plausible. Stockholm is still waiting on Ankara to ratify its bid to join the military alliance. As such, there is a realistic possibility Russia could re-ignite efforts to stall Sweden’s accession in the coming weeks.
- DIPLOMACY: Russian President Vladimir Putin will make a rare official visit abroad on 6 December to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov disclosed on 4 December that Putin will travel to these countries for negotiations, including with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman. The Israel-Hamas conflict, oil and bilateral relations are expected to feature during the negotiations. Meanwhile, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will travel to the Russian capital, Moscow, on 7 December to meet Putin.
- DIPLOMACY: Putin’s political engagements with Middle Eastern countries likely underscore Russia’s growing efforts to strengthen relations with such states and the Global South more broadly. The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have sought to play an important role in future peace negotiations with Ukraine, and the states have already facilitated various deals, including prisoner swaps. With Russia retaining a presence in Syria and the growing Iranian-Russian alliance, the Middle East remains a priority region for Russia, particularly as it seeks to exploit the Israel-Hamas war to gain favour amongst Muslim states in the region.
FORECAS
AID: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to address US senators later today (5 December) during a classified briefing as the White House pushes Congress to approve the White House’s nearly USD 106 bn Ukraine funding request. Despite US President Joe Biden issuing the request, which includes aid for Ukraine, Israel and other priorities almost two months ago, it has been stalled.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Zelensky had been invited to attend so senators can hear directly ‘what is at stake’ if further assistance for Kyiv is not approved. The US secretaries of defence, state and other national security officials are also expected to speak at the briefing. On 4 December, Schumer declared that the supplemental funding request could determine the long-term trajectory of democracy, claiming that the US is at a pivotal moment in history
Despite these attempts to rally senators to approve the request, it still risks being delayed further or not passed. Republicans have allegedly emphasised that Ukraine aid is conditional on ‘serious policy changes’ relating to border security. Bipartisan negotiations on 1 December on border policy collapsed, according to media reports on 4 December. Democrats reportedly acknowledge that Republicans are unwilling or unable to compromise on a reasonable proposal that can be passed. As such, divisions between the two parties are likely to continue to pose an obstacle for aiding Kyiv in the short-to-medium term.
Although there is no hard deadline for lawmakers to pass the supplemental bill, White House budget director Shalanda Young has called on Congress to approve the foreign aid funding quickly. On 4 December, Young said the US will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from US military stocks by the end of the year without congressional action. Young said Washington DC’s aid packages have already become smaller, with deliveries more limited. Smaller and less frequent aid packages will likely risk undermining Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting Russia in the coming months. For further analysis on US citizens’ perceptions on assistance for Ukraine, please see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 3 November 2023.
Dec 04.
- BAKHMUT: Ukrainian Ground Forces command spokesperson Volodymyr Fityo stated on 1 December that Russian forces have stepped up offensive operations across the entire eastern frontline, including around Bakhmut. Various Russian, and some Ukrainian sources, have in recent days reported that Russian forces are making marginal advances at various points to the north, west and south of Bakhmut, though there is still limited visual evidence to confirm this. Fighting remains heavy at various points, including near Khromove, located on the western outskirts of Bakhmut, as well as further south near Klishchiivka and Andriivka, located about six miles (10km) south-west of Bakhmut.
- BAKHMUT: Fityo also reported that while the weather is not significantly affecting the rate of Russian artillery fire on the Bakhmut front, strong winds are limiting their use of drones and aviation support. Meanwhile, both Russian and Ukrainian sources have reported over the last 48-72 hours that rain has severely limited the use of wheeled vehicles on all fronts, meaning both sides are broadly reliant upon dismounted infantry and tracked vehicles to attack.
- DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 2 December indicates that Russian forces have made marginal gains south of Stepove and south-west of Pervomaiske, located 1.8 miles (3km) north-west of Avdiivka and 6 miles (10km) south-west, respectively. These minor advances are on trend with the overall Russian offensive effort at Avdiivka in recent weeks, whereby Russia achieves creeping territorial gains at the expense of heavy personnel and equipment losses. In addition to these losses, poor weather conditions are slowing the pace of the Russian offensive.
- DONETSK: The largely-destroyed settlement of Marinka on the western outskirts of Donetsk city almost certainly remains contested, despite claims by some Russian milbloggers on 1 December that it had been captured. Numerous other Russian milbloggers directly contradicted these claims. Additionally, Tavriisk Group of Forces spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun noted on 3 December that fighting at the settlement continues; the Ukrainian General Staff reported earlier today, 4 December, that Ukrainian forces repelled attacks near Marinka.
- KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
- SOUTHERN: The commander of Ukraine’s Tavriisk group of forces, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, reported on 3 December that Russia has intensified infantry operations on the south-eastern front in recent days. However, the overall pace of operations across southern Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts remained broadly on-trend over the weekend of 2-3 December, with both sides continuing limited offensive and counter-offensive operations. Despite some isolated reports of Russian advances near Verbove, located six miles (10km) east of Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast), there have been no confirmed advances.
- OSKIL-KREMINNA: Geolocated footage from 2 December indicates that Ukrainian forces made marginal advances west of Dibrova, located around four miles (7km) south-west of Kreminna (Luhansk oblast). However, this remains a limited advance, and more broadly the Russians are on the offensive across the east, with Russian sources claiming various modest advances along the Oskil-Kreminna line in recent days. However, there is limited to no evidence to confirm these advances at present.
- STRIKES: On 2 December, Russian forces launched 11 Shahed 131-136 drones and one Kh-59 cruise missile. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 10 drones and the cruise missile were intercepted. The regional authorities in Odesa reported that the single drone which was not intercepted struck an ‘infrastructure object’ but did not specify precisely what type. There were reportedly no casualties or injuries.
- STRIKES: Overnight on 3 December, Russian forces fired 12 Shahed 131-136 drones and one Kh-59 cruise missile towards Ukraine’s southern oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 10 drones were intercepted, mostly in Mykolaiv oblast but also in Khmelnytskyi oblast. No details were given on the other two drones, nor the cruise missile, though it reportedly failed to reach its target.
- STRIKES: Russian forces conducted a larger strike campaign overnight on 3-4 December, launching 18 Shahed 131-136 drones and one Kh-59 cruise missile. Despite this, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that all 19 projectiles were intercepted. The regional authorities in the western Ivano-Frankivsk oblast reported that drones had targeted energy infrastructure facilities in the region, and that no significant damage or casualties were reported.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- BORDERS: Earlier on 4 December, Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service (DPSU) reported that border guards cleared 30 heavy vehicles for departure from Ukraine via the Uhryniv-Do?hobyczów checkpoint on the Ukrainian-Polish border. The DPSU stated that the crossing was opened for empty trucks at 0100hrs (local time) on 4 December. Ukraine’s Reconstruction Ministry and Poland’s Infrastructure Ministry agreed on 1 December to open the checkpoint to reduce pressure on other checkpoints along the border.
- BORDERS: On 4 December, Ukraine’s ambassador to Poland, Vasyl Zvarych, said negotiations between the two countries are ongoing and that certain compromises have been found. Although this indicates that both sides are able to reach compromises, it is unlikely that the border will be fully unblocked in the coming days. However, the opening of the checkpoint will modestly aid in increasing capacity along the Polish-Ukrainian border, where four checkpoints are currently blocked; supply chain disruption will likely persist as the protests continue.
- AID: On 3 December, international media reported that internal divisions over finances within the EU threaten the provision of EUR 50 bn in assistance for Ukraine. EU member states are reportedly far from reaching a deal to top up the bloc’s joint budget, which includes assistance for Kyiv, ahead of a summit on 14-15 December in Brussels (Belgium). On 20 June, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed the bloc give Ukraine EUR 50 bn in aid to keep the country solvent through 2024 until 2027.
- AID: An unspecified senior official claimed that a budget agreement would be extremely difficult to reach. However, other officials said negotiations over the budget were always likely to be challenging and that a compromise is possible; a revised package is also expected to be proposed before the summit. It is uncertain whether this would result in Kyiv receiving a reduced aid package, though internal disputes within the EU will likely continue to delay or undermine the provision of assistance for Ukraine in the long term.
- AID: The CEO of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger, said on 2 December that the firm wants to build the first armoured vehicles in Ukraine as soon as 2024. Papperger said the first Fuchs armoured personnel carriers (APCs) could be produced in Ukraine from late summer in 2024. Meanwhile, the first Lynx armoured fighting vehicles could be built in the country by 2025.
- AID: Papperger said he is not concerned about the security of factories in Ukraine as Rheinmetall will be renting existing plants that appear to be well protected. However, the threat of Russian strikes against such facilities will remain. The domestic production of such capabilities would represent modest steps towards enhancing Ukraine’s defensive self-sufficiency and resiliency, but Ukraine will remain disproportionately reliant upon Western aid despite efforts to increase defence-industrial output.
- MOBILISATION: On 1 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree nominally increasing the maximum number of servicemen in the country’s armed forces by 170,000. Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) said the increase is due to the recruitment of contract personnel and that there are no plans to significantly increase conscription or call for another wave of mobilisation. As such, the decree is likely a recognition of the Russian military’s current official strength, rather than an immediate order to bolster the number of troops. This indicates that Russia will likely continue to recruit through crypto-mobilisation tactics, including coercing migrants and expanding private military company (PMC) operations, to sustain the war effort. The avoidance of a further round of formal mobilisation is highly likely to avoid societal discontent ahead of the March 2024 presidential elections (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 16 November 2023).
- NUCLEAR: Overnight on 1-2 December, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) lost off-site power and temporarily relied on emergency diesel generators for the electricity needed to cool its reactors, among other safety procedures. Ukraine’s energy ministry said Ukrainian specialists restored a 750 kW line that was undermined on 2 December at 0700hrs (local time). The ZNPP has experienced eight complete blackouts since the beginning of the invasion. However, despite the total loss of external power, the risk of a major nuclear escalation at the facility remains highly unlikely for the foreseeable future.
FORECAST
INFIGHTING: An increasing number of reports and public statements indicate tense Ukrainian civil-military relations at present. Ukrainska Pravda published a report on 4 December that claimed the recent visit of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has proven a catalyst for tensions between President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi.
According to unnamed sources cited by the outlet, Zaluzhnyi candidly complained to Austin that the presidential administration is ‘disturbing’ and interfering with his operations. Other sources indicate wider grievances and tensions. Unnamed sources close to Zaluzhnyi also claimed that Zelensky purposefully communicates directly with commanders and bypasses Zaluzhnyi. While this could realistically merely be an effort to speed up decision-making, sources claim it is further eroding trust and undermining Zaluzhnyi’s command. Sources also claimed that Zelensky is considering replacing Zaluzhnyi, despite his overwhelming popularity both within the military and – crucially for the ongoing political tensions – with the wider Ukrainian population. There are also indications that Zelensky’s efforts to push forward anti-corruption reforms, which have this year included large-scale dismissals of military commissars and other senior officers, have generated backlash from within the military. Finally, the effective failure of Ukraine’s summer counter-offensive has inevitably driven tensions.
While none of these claims are confirmed, increasing public statements by many of the main protagonists indicate tensions are indeed increasing. Notable opponents of Zelensky have up until now broadly avoided criticism of the president in a bid to discourage infighting and support the war effort. However, in recent weeks some statements point to a modestly growing readiness to (directly or indirectly) question Zelensky and the wider presidential administration. This includes Zelensky’s erstwhile opponent Vitaliy Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv, who claimed Ukraine was turning ‘authoritarian’ in an interview on 1 December.
While Zaluzhnyi has publicly remained distinctly apolitical in contrast to Klitschko, the general himself spoke out very publicly in an Economist article on 1 November. He stated that Ukraine is unlikely to achieve a major military breakthrough without fundamental changes to the war effort, in an apparent attempt to reconcile the failure of the summer counter-offensive. Meanwhile, Zelensky himself has openly warned military officers against entering politics, stating in an interview with the Sun newspaper on 21 November that military personnel who engage in politics should therefore ‘not engage in war’.
Ultimately, tensions between the political executive and military high command are almost inevitable in any major war, and it is unsurprising that after almost two years of war, such issues are beginning to surface publicly. With Zelensky unlikely to go ahead with presidential elections in March 2024 due to martial law conditions, a serious challenge to his leadership is highly unlikely to materialise in the short to medium term. Despite recent reductions in his approval ratings, Zelensky remains overwhelmingly popular, and a majority of Ukrainians currently do not support elections during wartime. Nevertheless, growing factionalisation and infighting between pro-Zelensky and pro-Zaluzhnyi camps will sustain civil-military tensions at a crucial period, when Kyiv is formulating its military strategy for 2024 amid an increasingly uncertain international context.
*Ukraine-Poland: New checkpoint will modestly reduce pressure on border amid ongoing supply chain disruption. Earlier on 4 December, Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service (DPSU) reported that border guards cleared 30 heavy vehicles for departure from Ukraine via the Uhryniv-Do?hobyczów checkpoint on the Ukrainian-Polish border. The DPSU stated that the crossing was opened for empty trucks at 0100hrs (local time) on 4 December. Ukraine’s Reconstruction Ministry and Poland’s Infrastructure Ministry agreed on 1 December to open the checkpoint to reduce pressure on other checkpoints along the border. Protesting Polish hauliers began partially blocking crossings on the Polish-Ukrainian border on 6 November; four checkpoints are currently under blockade. Ukraine’s trade representative and deputy economy minister, Taras Kachka, estimated on 30 November that weeks of road blockades would reduce Ukraine’s overall imports by around a fifth in November. The opening of the checkpoint will modestly aid in increasing capacity along the Polish-Ukrainian border, though supply chain disruption will likely persist as the protests continue. (Source: Sibylline)
07 Dec 23. Ukraine to make shells with US firms as it seeks to develop defence sector. Kyiv has agreed with two American firms to jointly manufacture vital 155mm artillery shells in Ukraine, a Ukrainian minister said on Thursday, although production will not start for at least two years.
Demand for 155mm rounds soared following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The U.S. and allies have sent Kyiv more than 2 million and are trying, with limited success, to increase production to replenish stocks.
“We have agreements with two leading American companies to jointly produce, in Ukraine, 155-calibre ammunition,” Oleksandr Kamyshin, minister for strategic industries, said in televised comments.
But he noted that Ukraine had never produced such shells and it would be “a minimum of two years, a maximum of three” before production could begin.
The announcement follows a two-day Ukraine-U.S. defence conference held in Washington, which included bilateral meetings to discuss Ukraine’s battlefield plans for 2024 and measures to make it happen.
Kyiv and Washington signed a letter of intent at the forum to speed up weapons co-production and technical data exchange to meet the urgent needs of the Ukrainian army in air defence systems, maintenance, and production of critical ammunition.
CONCERNS GROW ABOUT FOREIGN SUPPORT
Ukraine’s defence sector, which for decades was dogged by underinvestment, red tape and corruption, is trying to compete with Russia’s far more advanced military industry and high budget support.
And, as the war nears the end of its second year with no end in sight, concerns are growing that Western supplies may be faltering as political support erodes and manufacturing capacity is still lacking as allies’ own stockpiles dwindle.
On Wednesday, Republicans in the U.S. Senate blocked an emergency bill that would provide about $60 billion in military and economic support for Ukraine, threatening hopes that the badly needed funds can be approved by the end of the year.
“For us, it is a matter of survival to create a military industry that matches the scale of the enemy’s industrial capacity,” Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov was quoted as saying on the conference website.
Kyiv also hopes that it can become integrated into the West’s military landscape by promoting joint weapons production and supplies in a “common defence industry space”.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine did not want to rely solely on military aid from allies and aimed to become a donor of security for neighbours in the future.
(Source: Reuters)
07 Dec 23. Swedish Support for Ukraine Makes a Difference in the War. Recently, Swedish Commander-in-Chief Micael Bydén visited wartime Ukraine, where he met, among other things, the Minister of Defense and his Ukrainian counterpart Valery Zaluzny. He was also at the front where he met personnel from the brigade who use Swedish equipment and who have been trained by Swedes.
“I wanted to see and hear with my own eyes and ears how the support is received on site and have received a receipt that it makes a real difference,” says Chief of Defence Micael Bydén.
That was one of the main purposes of the trip to Ukraine – to get an idea of how the Archer and Combat Vehicle 90 artillery system has gone and see what effect the systems have had.
“The Ukrainian soldiers pointed out that they are very satisfied with and grateful for the training they received and that they are impressed by the material systems which, in their opinion, are of high quality.
The support will continue, notes Bydén, but in a different form. Training and counseling will probably be the focus going forward.
“Now we have delivered effective systems such as Archer and CV90, now it is important to concentrate on supply, that the equipment works and can be used, in the form of maintenance, spare parts and ammunition,” he concluded. (Unofficial translation by Defense-Aerospace.com) (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Swedish Armed Forces; issued Dec 06, 2023)
07 Dec 23. Milrem Robotics partners with the Ukrainian Defence Industry to forge next-generation multi-domain robotic systems.
Europe’s leading robotics and autonomous systems developer Milrem Robotics and the Ukrainian Defense Industry (UDI) which consolidates national defence industry companies signed an agreement to start forging next-generation multi-domain robotic defence systems.
The agreement, signed during the First Defense Industries Forum (DFNC1) in Kyiv, details several development and manufacturing activities between Milrem Robotics and the members of UDI.
As a first step, the parties will start strategic cooperation in identifying Ukraine’s requirements and use cases for robotic systems which can enhance the capabilities of Ukraine’s armed units in the ongoing war and after the war.
Thereafter the companies involved will integrate Ukraine’s battlefield experience into Milrem Robotics’ existing robotic and autonomous systems and develop new products to create Ukraine’s manned and unmanned multi-domain capabilities.
“This unfortunate war in Ukraine has made it clear that unmanned and robotic systems have an important role on battlefield and this role will increase in time,” said Kuldar Väärsi, CEO of Milrem Robotics. “The main goal is to protect the troops and to keep the warfighters safe, but at the same time provide stronger and an asymmetric effect on the aggressor’s forces. We are honoured to cooperate with UDI to develop and manufacture robotic systems which help Ukraine win this war.”
“The First International Defence Industries Forum proved that we are on the same course as our Western partners, as Ukrainian manufacturers signed an agreement with Milrem Robotics and other global arms companies. Currently, Ukraine is gaining unique experience in Defense Tech, and we are ready to share this knowledge with our partners. We aim to deepen our cooperation with leading high-tech international companies to build the arsenal of the free world together,» said Oleksandr Kamyshin, Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine.
Ukrainian defence developers and manufacturers will be included to integrate their defence technology, such as weapon systems, electronic warfare and mine-clearing equipment with Milrem’s robotic vehicles to meet the requirements of the armed forces.
Additionally, the parties will look into manufacturing THeMIS Combat (with HMG and antitank capabilities), Combat Engineering (mine detection and demining), CASEVAC unmanned ground vehicles and other Milrem Robotics’ products in Ukraine and engineering cooperation in designing a wheeled Robotic Combat Vehicle.
Milrem Robotics has already delivered 15 THeMIS Unmanned Ground Vehicles to Ukraine to support logistics, casualty evacuation and route clearance operations.
Milrem Robotics is the leading European robotics and autonomous systems developer and systems integrator, with offices in Estonia, Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands and the US. The company is known for their THeMIS and Multiscope UGVs, the Type-X Robotic Combat Vehicle and the MIFIK autonomy kit.
UDI, which was transformed into a joint-stock company this summer, is a strategic manufacturer of weapons and military equipment in Ukraine and unites state-owned defence companies employing around 67,000 highly qualified employees.
07 Dec 23. Putin is close to victory. Europe should be terrified.
Ukraine’s time is running out. The danger is that the EU faces the same fate as the Holy Roman Empire.
With the Ukraine conflict languishing in stalemate, the possibility that Russian president Vladimir Putin might yet emerge victorious from his ill-judged invasion cannot be ignored, with all the implications such an outcome would have for Europe’s security.
Ukraine’s failure to make a decisive breakthrough in its counter-offensive during the summer has all but silenced the optimistic predictions made by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and his senior commanders that victory was within Kyiv’s grasp. Instead, the Ukrainian narrative is in danger of descending into recriminations over the refusal of its Western allies to provide Kyiv with the weaponry required to break the impasse on the battlefield. As the Ukrainian leader remarked in a recent interview, “We didn’t get all the weapons we wanted, I can’t be satisfied.”
The lack of military progress, together with the eruption of hostilities between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, has certainly deepened the sense of scepticism among some Western leaders over Ukraine’s ability to prevail. There is a growing sentiment within the Biden administration, for example, that its interests would be better served by pressuring Zelensky to sue for peace, rather than persisting with a military campaign he stands little chance of winning.
Meanwhile, Putin is intensifying his efforts to reclaim the military advantage, using the country’s strong oil revenues to militarise the Russian economy, which has led to a significant increase in weapons production. Putin has also authorised a 170,000 increase in the size of the Russian military. He hopes this will aid its efforts to seize key strategic targets, such as the eastern town of Avdiivka in the Donbas region, the scene of recent heavy fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces.
The notion that, 21 months after Russia invaded Ukraine, the Russian military would still be capable of mounting an offensive seemed inconceivable only a few months ago, after Moscow had suffered a series of devastating setbacks. And while it still remains highly unlikely that Putin will be able to fulfil his goal of conquering all of Ukraine and establishing a puppet regime in Kyiv, any conclusion that results in the Kremlin retaining significant areas of Ukrainian territory will be hailed as a victory.
Such an outcome would present a significant challenge for the Western alliance, as its ability to withstand Russian aggression would be open to question after all the military support it has given Ukraine. It would also encourage Putin in the belief that he could undertake further acts of aggression on Nato’s eastern flank, safe in the knowledge that the West had neither the resources nor resolve to resist the Kremlin’s expansionist aims.
The prospect of Russia intensifying the threat it poses to European security in the event of Putin achieving only modest gains in Ukraine has prompted a number of prominent European military experts to question openly Nato’s preparedness for meeting such a challenge. A recent defence conference in Berlin was treated to a doomsday scenario whereby Europe risked suffering the same fate as the Holy Roman Empire under Napoleon, and being “washed away” in a future conflict with Russia because of Nato’s inability to defend Europe’s eastern flank.
Sönke Neitzel, one of Germany’s leading military historians, claimed that it could take 15 years before his country was capable of defending itself against Russia. His sentiments were reinforced by Jacek Siewiera, the chief of Poland’s National Security Bureau, who warned that Nato had as little as three years to prepare itself for a Russian attack on its eastern flank.
And yet, despite the obvious threat Moscow poses, Western leaders appear disinclined to credit it with the seriousness it merits. The argument made during the early stages of the Ukraine conflict – that ensuring Russia suffered a heavy defeat would dissuade Putin from further acts of aggression – has been replaced by war fatigue, and a desire to end hostilities at all costs, even if it leads to an emboldened Russia.
Nor has the West’s response to the conflict engendered better co-operation in the defence sphere. Commenting on the stalemate in the Ukraine conflict, the secretary general of Nato, Jens Stoltenberg, recently lamented the fragmented nature of Europe’s defence industry. “We are not able to work as closely together as we should,” he said, warning that the inability of European nations to pool resources could undermine efforts to maintain ammunition supplies to Ukraine.
The failure to afford the Russian threat the seriousness it deserves is evident in Britain, too, where analysis of Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement last month suggests the Government is unlikely to fulfil its pledge to raise defence spending from 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent of GDP, a key requirement for making our Armed Forces better-equipped to counter the Russian threat. Not only, it appears, is Europe preparing to let Ukraine lose the war: it has little appetite for defending itself against future acts of Russian aggression. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
07 Dec 23. Ukraine assassinates ‘traitor’ ex-MP in Russia – follow live.
Illya Kyva, a former Ukrainian MP, has been assassinated in Russia by Ukraine’s SBU security service, law enforcement sources told BBC Ukraine.
“The criminal was liquidated by using small arms,” the sources said.
Russian investigators said Kyva was shot dead in the village of Suponevo, to the west of Moscow, where his body was found yesterday.
Earlier this year, Kyva was handed a 14-year prison sentence for high treason after calling for Russia to occupy Ukraine. He fled to Russia one month before Moscow launched its invasion in February 2022 and was tried in absentia.
The 46-year-old politician had campaigned unsuccessfully for Ukraine’s presidency in 2019.
Andriy Yusov, spokesman for Ukraine’s military intelligence, told Ukrainian TV: “Yes, we can confirm Kyva is no more. This fate will befall other traitors of Ukraine and puppets of Putin’s regime”. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
06 Dec 23. Biden open to ‘significant’ concessions on border security in return for Ukraine aid. US president appeals for support as Senate blocks emergency aid package including $60bn for Kyiv. Joe Biden pleaded with Republicans on Wednesday for a fresh infusion of military aid for Ukraine, warning that a victory for Russia would leave Putin in position to attack Nato allies and could draw US troops into a war.
The US president spoke as the White House planned to announce $175 m in additional Ukraine aid from its dwindling supply of money for Kyiv. He signalled a willingness to make significant changes to US migration policy along the border with Mexico to try to draw Republican support.
“If Putin takes Ukraine, he won’t stop there,” Mr Biden said. Putin will attack a Nato ally, he predicted, and then “we’ll have something that we don’t seek and that we don’t have today: American troops fighting Russian troops”.
The US president’s appeal came after the Senate blocked an emergency aid package that included more than $60 bn in new military support for Kyiv.
Congress has for months been split over sending more cash to Ukraine, with hard-line Republicans demanding an overhaul of immigration policy along the border with Mexico in exchange for their support.
Efforts to secure a funding deal were placed in an effective logjam on Wednesday, after Republicans in the upper house blocked a bill to provide aid to Ukraine and Israel over a lack of border provisions.
Senators voted 49-51 and therefore failed to reach the 60-vote threshold that would allow the proposal to come up for consideration.
The vote was along party lines, with every Senate Republican voting “no” along with Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent who generally votes with Democrats but had expressed concerns about funding Israel’s “current inhumane military strategy” against Palestinians.
In an indication that Democrats intend to return to the matter promptly, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer flipped his vote to “no” so he could bring the bill up again in the future.
Speaking from the Roosevelt Room in the White House, Mr Biden accused “extreme Republicans” of “playing chicken with our national security, [and] holding Ukraine’s funding hostage to their extreme partisan border policies”.
He accused them of being willing to “literally kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield” and “give Russian president Vladimir Putin the greatest gift he could hope for”.
House and Senate Republicans are backing renewed construction of a border wall, former president Donald Trump’s signature goal, and a revival of a controversial policy under which asylum seekers must remain in Mexico while their immigration case is heard.
Mr Biden said on Wednesday he was willing to make “significant” compromises on the border issue, admitting the system was “broken” and in need of fixing, but could not meet their every demand.
He said Democrats had put a “bipartisan compromise on the table” which had been rejected.
“This has to be a negotiation,” he said. “Republicans think they get everything they want, without any bipartisan compromise. That’s not the answer.”
Mr Biden has asked Congress for nearly $106 bn to fund the wars in Ukraine, Israel and other security needs.
He said “petty, partisan, angry politics can’t get in the way of our responsibility”, before warning that if Putin enters Nato territory it could result in “American troops fighting Russian troops”.
The debate on supplemental Ukraine funding descended into a shouting match at the US Capitol on Tuesday, prompting several Republicans to walk out of a classified briefing. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
06 Dec 23. Global: Ongoing exploitation of software vulnerabilities will elevate security risks for businesses . On 4 December, Microsoft reported that a Russian state-sponsored threat group, ‘APT28’, is actively exploiting a vulnerability in Outlook email services to obtain unauthorised access to accounts on Exchange servers. The vulnerability (CVE-2023-23397) is a critical privilege escalation flaw that could allow a threat actor access to specific user account information that could be exploited to authenticate the unauthorised actor. APT28 is actively exploiting the vulnerability of public and private entities in Poland, likely to obtain sensitive information. The vulnerability has a patch that has been available since March 2023, underscoring the necessity for improved adherence to cyber security policies for organisations, especially those in critical sectors. Russian threat actors have exploited zero-day and pre-existing vulnerabilities throughout 2022 and 2023 to target government, transportation, energy and military sectors, among others. Their ongoing exploitation of such vulnerabilities highlights the sophistication of these groups and the increased security risk unpatched and/or unknown vulnerabilities can pose for critical sectors. (Source: Sibylline)
06 Dec 23. Kyiv does not want to rely solely on allied military aid-Zelenskiy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that Kyiv was ramping up domestic military production in cooperation with partners as it aims to guarantee its own defence capabilities and become a donor of security.
“Ukraine does not want to depend only on partners. Ukraine aims to and really can become a donor of security for all our neighbors once it can guarantee its own safety”, he told participants in the joint Ukraine-U.S. defense conference in Washington.
Zelenskiy, whose remarks were posted on the presidential website, said the plan was “absolutely realistic.”
“I invite all American defense companies to cooperate with Ukraine. I am confident that together we can create a new and powerful arsenal of freedom, which will be a reliable helper for all free nations of the world.” (Source: Reuters)
06 Dec 23. Austin Ushers in U.S.-Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Partnership. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III underscored today the importance of bolstering Ukraine’s long-term sustainment of key capabilities to deter Russian aggression through the development of its domestic industrial base.
Speaking during the opening session of the Ukraine Defense Industrial Base Conference in Washington, Austin said Ukraine’s ability to produce critical military equipment domestically is key to its ability to maintain lasting freedom and sovereignty within its borders.
“Together with our allies and partners, we must continue working to help Ukraine repel Russian forces today and build a future force for Ukraine that can deter Russian aggression in the years to come,” he said. “That will mean strengthening Ukraine’s defense industrial base, both to maintain Ukraine’s current war effort and to bolster Ukraine’s national strength and deterrence long into the future.”
The two-day conference, co-hosted by the White House, Commerce and Defense Departments, brings together U.S. and Ukrainian industry and government representatives to discuss ideas that could bolster Ukraine’s defense industrial base.
Discussions at the conference include areas of potential collaboration between the U.S., Ukrainian government and industry partners regarding ways to advance best practices that can lead to long-term success, as well as increased investments in Ukraine’s defense sector.
The discussions build on an event held in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, in September, which focused on enhanced industry partnerships between Ukraine and international partners.
During the kickoff Wednesday, U.S. and Ukrainian officials signed a statement of intent on the co-production of critical weapons and on prioritizing technical and data exchange between the two countries to address the urgent needs of Ukraine’s armed forces.
Austin said advancements realized through industry partnerships will open pathways for Ukraine to produce spare parts closer to the point of need and more swiftly return repaired military equipment to the frontlines.
“We must also strengthen the logistical and information technology systems that bind all of these efforts together — a robust and resilient industrial base that has hot production lines with strong, secure supply chains,” Austin said.
“By gathering here today, we’re working to bring the full power of American free enterprise and American innovation to bear to reach that goal,” he said.
Austin said a strong, sustainable Ukrainian defense industry would resonate far beyond its borders and enhance security around the globe.
“Together with our allies and partners, I am confident that we have all the pieces that we need to help our Ukrainian friends sustain their fight for their sovereignty over the long haul,” he said. “It’s up to all of us to put those pieces together.”
“At the end of the day, we all benefit from the dynamic industrial bases of our global allies and partners,” Austin continued. “And that’s important far beyond Europe. The whole world is watching, and we must come together to meet this moment.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
06 Dec 23. Ukraine’s latest weapons request includes THAAD air defenses and F-18s. Ukraine’s latest list of U.S. weapons it says it needs to fight the Russian military includes sophisticated air defense systems, F-18 “Hornet” fighter jets, drones, Apache and Blackhawk helicopters, according to documents seen by Reuters.
Officials from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense presented a “list of armaments to meet the needs of defense forces of Ukraine” during a closed-door session of a conference in Washington on Wednesday attended by government officials and defense industry executives.
The comprehensive list included weapons Ukraine already has in stock like Abrams tanks and 155 millimeter artillery, as well some weaponry such as F-16s, drones and long-range ATACMS missiles that it has asked for in the past.
But the list has a few surprises including big-ticket items like C-17 Globemaster transport jets made by Boeing (BA.N) and the C-130 Super Hercules made by Lockheed Martin (LMT.N). Boeing’s Apache attack helicopters made the list, as did the Black Hawk helicopter made by Lockheed Martin’s Sikorsky unit.
But the Ukrainians did not stop there. The documents show Ukraine is also seeking F-18 “Hornet” fighter jets, three types of drones made by General Atomics including the MQ-9B Sky Guardian and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) air defense system made by Lockheed.
Ukrainians know they must secure Western military aid to carry on the fight.
Legislation that would provide bns of dollars in new security assistance for Ukraine and Israel was blocked in the U.S. Senate on Wednesday as Republicans pressed their demands for tougher measures to control immigration at the U.S. border with Mexico.
U.S. President Joe Biden has made a Ukrainian victory a foreign-policy goal as he campaigns for re-election in November 2024.
Ukraine’s list reflects what would easily be bns of dollars’ worth of purchases or donations of weapons.
The Ukrainian embassy in Washington did not immediately return a request for comment. (Source: Reuters)
06 Dec 23. US and Ukrainian leaders seek expansion of arms production. U.S. and Ukrainian government representatives signed an agreement to speed weapons co-production and data sharing at a conference in Washington on Wednesday.
“Ukraine becoming more self-sufficient in weapons production obviously alleviates the long term need for continued supply of weapons from the United States and other Western countries,” Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan told Reuters in an interview. “So they ramp up and we can, over time, ramp down the extent of the necessary deliveries.”
The letter of intent was signed at a meeting of U.S. and Ukrainian industry and government representatives and “will prioritize co-production and technical data exchange to address the urgent operational needs of the armed forces in Ukraine,” Jason Israel, the White House National Security Council’s Director for Defense Policy and Strategy told an audience of more than 200 gathered in the Department of Commerce auditorium.
Areas of concentration include “air defense systems, repair and sustainment and production of critical munitions,” Israel told the audience.
Sullivan told Reuters that the goal was to facilitate licensing, technology transfer, funding, partnerships and co-production that will eventually involve brick and mortar “Ukrainian outfits with Ukrainian expertise relying upon those licenses and tech transfer – and so forth – from U.S. companies and European companies.”
Sullivan did not go into which systems the U.S. was comfortable licensing to Ukraine, but said there was a range including large companies like Boeing (BA.N), drone maker General Atomics to technology companies like Amentum Services and Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS.N).
The letter was signed by the Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer Bill LaPlante, Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov and its Minister for Strategic Industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin.
The three-day conference kicked off on Wednesday and included high-level speakers from both governments including U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Ukraine’s Head of the Office of the President Andriyy Yermak and the Minister of Defense.
The event is being hosted by the U.S. Department of Commerce and is part of a U.S. government effort to increase weapons production in support of Ukraine. (Source: Reuters)
06 Dec 23. Austin Meets With Ukrainian Minister of Defense at Pentagon.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III today hosted bilateral discussions at the Pentagon with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. The meeting comes on the heels of the Ukraine Defense Industrial Base Conference today in Washington, D.C., and also aligns with today’s announcement of another security assistance package for Ukraine.
The two leaders most recently met in November in Kyiv, where they discussed military operations as well as Umerov’s near- and mid-term goals and objectives for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. Before closed-door discussions began, Austin publicly reiterated U.S. support for Ukraine.
“As I said in Kyiv, the United States stands with Ukraine as you fight back against the Kremlin’s aggression and cruelty,” Austin said. “Ukraine has taken back more than half the territory grabbed by Russia since its unprovoked invasion began in February 2022. So we will stand with Ukraine for the long haul. I’m confident that our allies and partners will be there as well.”
Today’s bilateral discussion built on conversations that occurred last month in Kyiv, and included Ukraine’s strategic goals for the coming year and a long-term vision for a future force.
“To support Ukraine’s immediate needs, I am announcing our 52nd drawdown of equipment and services from U.S. stocks,” Austin said. “The package includes additional munitions for your defense — artillery and tank weapons, and small arms munitions.”
This most recent security assistance package, worth $175 m, includes, among other things, AIM-9M and AIM-7 missiles for air defense, ammunition for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, 155 mm and 105 mm artillery rounds and High-speed Anti-radiation missiles, also known as HARMs. The United States has committed more than $44.2 bn in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Austin also discussed the significance of the Ukraine Defense Industrial Base Conference. The two-day conference, co-hosted by the White House, Commerce and Defense Departments, brings together U.S. and Ukrainian industry and government representatives to discuss ideas that could bolster Ukraine’s defense industrial base.
“We discussed ways to strengthen partnerships among Ukraine and the U.S. defense industry,” Austin said. “This just underscores America’s commitment to a free and sovereign Ukraine — one that can defend itself today and deter further Russian aggression in the future.”
Umerov thanked Austin for hosting the bilateral discussions and for organizing the industrial base conference.
“We consider this conference … a significant breakthrough in the development of our military/technical cooperation,” Umerov said. “It’s one of our key elements of increasing self-sufficiency in Ukraine.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
06 Dec 23. Europe’s outliers on Ukraine temper their anti-aid rhetoric. Recently elected leaders in Slovakia and the Netherlands are tempering the anti-Ukraine rhetoric that elevated them to victory during their campaigns, as the stakes of antagonizing their Western allies by halting military support to Kyiv are too high, experts say.
Following the September victory of the Russia-friendly party of Slovakia’s new Prime Minister, Robert Fico, concerns emerged regarding the fate of Bratislava’s supply of military aid to Ukraine.
The Slovak authorities have donated, among other things, MiG-29 fighters, mine clearance systems, air-to-air missiles, ammunition and self-propelled artillery to their invaded neighbor.
Shortly after it was sworn in, Fico’s new Cabinet rejected the outgoing government’s latest draft of military supplies to Ukraine, which planned to send rockets and further ammunition to the embattled country.
Regardless of the politician’s tough pre-election narrative of “not a single round” for Ukraine, his flagship electoral slogan, Bratislava has yet to halt its defense cooperation with Kyiv.
During a NATO meeting held last week, Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba thanked his Slovak counterpart Juraj Bla?r for his government’s continued involvement in helping Ukraine repel Russian forces.
“I am grateful to my Slovak counterpart for confirming that defense industry cooperation among our companies will continue, and that the repair hub in Slovakia [to service Ukrainian weapons] will also maintain operations,” Kuleba said, as quoted in a statement released by his ministry.
Blanár made similar remarks, noting that the Slovak government “will continue to support Ukraine,” and is “looking for ways to continue training Ukrainian soldiers.”
Local media have also reported that Ukraine has also shown an interest in acquiring more Slovak-made Zuzana 2 self-propelled howitzers manufactured by Konstruka Defense, of which Slovakia has already delivered eight.
Experts explain that these developments suggest that the Fico government will likely strive to balance the pro-Moscow sympathies of his voters against the broader expectations of Slovakia’s allies.
“For Fico to satisfy some of his domestic promises, it is in his interest to shift more towards the mainstream privately and elevate his values as a reliable player in Brussels with other leaders so he can cash in later more pressing priorities,” Roger Hilton, defense fellow at the Bratislava-based think tank GLOBSEC said. “These may include unlocking EU funds or getting a greater say in other policy areas like migration.”
Moreover, the seemingly contradictory rhetoric, compared to that of the election campaign, should be taken with the caveat that Slovakia doesn’t possess many of the weapons Ukraine wants, Hilton added.
“Making this shift in private is even easier for the government on the NATO level, when you consider that Slovakia has very little transformation stock left to provide Ukraine. … Fico can walk back his campaign talk without fear of having to give up anything in public,” Hilton said.
Meanwhile, in Amsterdam, the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) of Geert Wilders won the largest number of seats in the country’s parliament last month, sparking similar fears as Fico’s victory of a potential abrupt end to Ukraine aid.
Since the election, Wilders, whose past praise of Vladimir Putin has earned him a reputation of a Kremlin-friendly populist, has launched talks with other parties to form a coalition cabinet.
The politician has said he is willing to compromise and tone down some of his more extreme policies as to gain greater support from other parties, according to a report from the Financial Times.
Forming a new government promises to be lengthy as well as complex process, and ultimately may result in Wilders not becoming prime minister, as the ruling party has declined to form a coalition with the PVV under his leadership.
“Should Wilders become part of any new cabinet, it could impact assistance to Ukraine. The PVV is against the sending of F-16s for example, arguing that doing so detracts from the defense of the Netherlands,” Davis Ellison, strategic analyst at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies said. “There are quite possibly some very real implications coming from this election.”
Other experts are more confident about the future of Dutch military assistance to Kyiv, as they argue a majority of parties are in favor of its continuity.
“The only two political forces, including the PVV, which intend to halt the delivery of weapons and ammunition to Kyiv represent 40 out of the 150 seats in the lower chamber, [as such] it’s unlikely that other parties will accept the PVV’s intent to stop these,” Dick Zandee, head of the security and defense program at the Dutch think tank Clingendael Institute said. (Source: Defense News)
06 Dec 23. Ukraine aid in peril as Senate Republicans walk out of heated briefing. Republican Sens. Deb Fischer and Mitt Romney walked side by side Tuesday as they hastily left the Biden administration’s classified briefing on a massive defense spending package that includes Ukraine and Israel aid, both visibly agitated.
Fischer of Nebraska and Romney of Utah were among numerous Republicans to exit the briefing early. By their account, administration officials did not provide answers to their questions on Ukraine beyond what’s publicly available in unclassified public reports, compounding their frustration with Democrats for refusing to meet their demands for immigration policy changes in the legislation.
The unrelated partisan fight over immigration policy threatens to derail the roughly $113 bn package that also includes funding for the U.S. southern border and Indo-Pacific security partners, all while the Biden administration rapidly runs out of the little remaining Ukraine aid. It raises serious questions about whether Congress will continue providing aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invasion despite previous Senate Republican support for a a bipartisan defense supplemental package.
“We’ve had it,” Fischer said. “When you have Deb Fischer who’s upset about this, they better be worried. Because I have backed everything.”
Fischer, who sits on the Armed Services and Appropriations committees, has championed aid to Kyiv despite mounting House Republican opposition. She vented to reporters about her misgivings following the briefing — some of which extended beyond the immigration debate and marked Ukraine policy grievances set in motion months ago.
“The point is there’s no answer to any questions down there,” Fischer told Defense News, criticizing the Biden administration for requesting Ukraine aid via a supplemental rather than in its base budget proposal earlier this year. “They should have realized the issues. We’ve been very aware of the issues that we have in Ukraine with our own munitions.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was expected to address senators at the briefing via video but had to cancel, though it was unclear why. During a visit to Washington in September, he warned senators that Ukraine will lose the war if foreign assistance does not continue.
The Biden administration has less than $5 bn in presidential drawdown authority to continue transferring weapons to Ukraine from U.S. stockpiles and $1 bn to replenish weapons it’s already sent.
The director of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, Shalanda Young, said Monday in a letter to congressional leaders that the administration would run out of these funds by the end of the year.
“Frankly after the last few minutes, I’m beginning to worry about the supplemental passing at all before the first of the year,” Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, the top Republican on the Armed Services Committee and another Ukraine aid proponent, said after the briefing.
Wicker, who stayed for most of the briefing, told Defense News he found the administration’s answers lacking on its previous reluctance to send certain munitions — complaints pro-Ukraine Republicans have had for more than a year.
“That said, we very much need to pass a supplemental assisting our Israeli friends, our Ukrainian friends, getting ready for deterring war in the Pacific, and addressing our southern border, and part and parcel to our defense needs is the very inadequate submarine-industrial base,” Wicker argued.
‘A Russian city or Ukrainian city?’
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., told reporters Tuesday that House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., informed him in a phone call last week that he would not advance Ukraine aid if it does not include a hard-line immigration bill House Republicans passed earlier this year.
Nonetheless, Schumer has scheduled the first procedural vote on the behemoth supplemental package for Wednesday. But that vote is expected to fail after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said the Republican caucus will vote against it without the immigration policy changes the party is demanding.
Notably, McConnell has spent most of the last year making the case for Ukraine aid to critics in his party and had previously supported a defense spending supplemental with the assistance to bypass the $886 bn caps laid out in the May debt ceiling agreement.
Heritage Action, the lobbying wing of the conservative Heritage Foundation, sent a letter to Johnson on Tuesday asking him to “strongly oppose” the Ukraine aid. The letter calls for no more assistance unless the Biden administration “provides a plan that defines the end goal in Ukraine, describes the expected U.S. commitment to achieve that goal, addresses the effects of the presidential drawdown authority on U.S. capabilities and assures further commitments from our European partners.”
Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said that “a cynic would say the goal here is to take down Ukraine funding.”
“We are making the decision right now as to whether Kyiv is a Russian city or Ukrainian city,” Murphy told Defense News. “My level of frustration about the lack of seriousness from Republicans is due to the stakes that we are dealing with. And the stakes are whether Ukraine exists 12 months from now or is a part of Russia.”
The Senate’s proposed bill would provide $13.5bn to continue arming Ukraine through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. It allocates another $15.1bn for the Defense Department to continue supporting Kyiv with military training, intelligence sharing and “an increased presence in the European Command area of responsibility,” per a Senate summary of the bill.
On top of that, the bill appropriates $24.5bn to replenish weapons that the U.S. has already sent to Ukraine and Israel through its stockpiles. It also sets aside another $15.3bn in Israel military aid and $2.8bn to increase capacity for the munitions-industrial base.
The bill does not place conditions on aid to Israel despite conversations among Senate Democrats about doing so last week.
It also allocates $3bn at Wicker’s insistence to help prepare the beleaguered submarine-industrial base for the trilateral AUKUS agreement that would see the U.S. and Britain help Australia build a nuclear-powered submarine fleet. Wicker has promised to hold up two key AUKUS authorizations from the annual defense policy bill unless Congress appropriates that funding. (Source: Defense News)
06 Dec 23. Biden Administration Announces New Security Assistance for Ukraine. Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced new security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs that uses the limited resources that remain available to help Ukraine.
This announcement is the Biden Administration’s fifty-second tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This package includes additional air defense capabilities, artillery ammunition, anti-tank weapons, and other equipment to help Ukraine counter Russia’s ongoing war of aggression.
This package utilizes assistance previously authorized for Ukraine during prior fiscal years under Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) that remained after the PDA revaluation process.
The capabilities in this package, valued at up to $175m, include:
* AIM-9M and AIM-7 missiles for air defense;
* Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
* 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
* High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
* Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
* Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
* More than 4 m rounds of small arms ammunition;
* Vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
* Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing;
* Equipment to protect critical national infrastructure;
* Spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.
Alongside some 50 Allies and partners, the United States has provided Ukraine with the capabilities it needs to achieve significant military victories and successfully retake more than 50% of its sovereign territory that Russia seized in its invasion. Our security assistance packages help Ukraine protect its civilians, cities, and infrastructure from Russia’s brutal aerial attacks. U.S. leadership is central to sustaining the global coalition that has enabled Ukraine’s courageous forces to successfully defend its sovereignty and independence and take back more than half of the territory seized by Russian invaders. It is critical that Congress takes action soon and passes the President’s national security supplemental request to ensure we can continue our support for Ukraine.
Security assistance for Ukraine is a smart investment in our national security. It helps to prevent a larger war in the region and deter potential aggression elsewhere, while strengthening our defense industrial base and creating highly skilled jobs for the American people. (Source: U.S. DoD)
06 Dec 23. US president Joe Biden accused Republicans in Congress of being willing to give Russian president Vladimir Putin the “greatest gift he could hope for” as a vote on Wednesday to provide more aid to Ukraine appeared doomed to fail in the Senate. Speaking from the White House on Wednesday after a virtual meeting with fellow G7 leaders, Biden said “any disruption in our ability to supply Ukraine clearly strengthens Putin’s position” and the US had “run out of money” to help Kyiv. “History is going to judge harshly those who turn their back on freedom’s cause. We can’t let Putin win,” Biden said. “It’s in our overwhelming national interest in the…..interest of all our friends,” he added. Biden’s comments came just hours ahead of an expected vote in the Senate on a proposed $111bn spending package, which includes $60bn for Ukraine. With that vote now expected to fail, the president’s intervention also reflected growing fears within the administration that Congress would be unable to reach any deal on Ukraine aid before the end of the year, seriously damaging Kyiv’s military capabilities and giving Russia the edge nearly two years since it launched its full-scale invasion of the country. The White House has for most of the year been optimistic that Congress would eventually come around to an agreement on Ukraine aid, given that a majority of US lawmakers support it. But that confidence has been shaken several times in recent months. Biden said it was “stunning” the US had reached a point where Ukraine funding might dry up, pinning the blame squarely on Republicans. “Republicans in Congress are willing to give Putin the greatest gift he could hope for, and abandoned our global leadership not just in Ukraine but beyond that,” he said. Aid for Ukraine was left out of two separate stop-gap bills passed in recent months to keep funding the government, and the outbreak of war in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas has made it harder for Congress to prioritise aid for Ukraine. Meanwhile, polling has shown dwindling political support for aid to Ukraine across the country. According to Gallup, 41 per cent of Americans say the US is doing “too much” to help Ukraine, a sharp increase compared with 29 per cent who said the same in June. While Democrats are largely supportive of aid to Ukraine, Republicans in Congress have increasingly balked at sending additional help for Kyiv to help it win back territory from Russian forces. Republican House speaker Mike Johnson, a hardline conservative from Louisiana and a close ally of Donald Trump, is demanding strict curbs on immigration at the southern border with Mexico in return for any aid to Ukraine — which is an unpalatable condition to most Democrats and the White House. Republicans in the Senate who have previously supported Kyiv embraced Johnson’s position this week, in a development that surprised those who hoped for a bipartisan compromise. “Republicans are playing chicken with our national security, holding Ukraine’s funding hostage to their extreme partisan border policies,” Biden said. The US president said he was “willing to make significant compromises on the border”, but “thus far I’ve gotten no response”. Still, Biden said he would continue to press for a solution. “I’m not prepared to walk away and I don’t think the American people are either.” (Source: FT.com)
06 Dec 23. UK hits military suppliers propping up Russia’s war machine.
The UK announces new sanctions targeting individuals and groups supplying and funding Putin’s war machine.
- UK announces 46 new sanctions targeting individuals and groups supplying and funding Putin’s war machine.
- This includes businesses in Belarus, China, Serbia, Turkey the UAE and Uzbekistan who continue to support Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
- By including entities operating in China, Serbia, and Uzbekistan the UK has now taken action against over 30 third-country entities supporting Russia’s war efforts. This signals the UK’s no tolerance approach to those enabling Russia’s illegal war, wherever they may be.
Foreign military suppliers exporting equipment and parts to Russia are among dozens of individuals and groups sanctioned today to target those helping Putin’s war machine.
Russian weapons manufacturers and defence importers were also among the list of 46 new sanctions imposed as well as 3 actors supporting the Wagner Group network and 4 operators of so-called ‘shadow fleet’ vessels used by Russia to soften the blow of oil-related sanctions imposed by the UK alongside G7 partners.
As the Prime Minister said to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a call last week, the UK’s support for our Ukrainian allies is steadfast. Today’s measures will disrupt Putin’s ability to equip his military through third-party supply chains in Belarus, China, Serbia, Turkey, the UAE and Uzbekistan.
The move will hit Russia where it hurts and starve Putin of the resources he needs for his illegal war on Ukraine.
Today’s package comes as G7 Leaders are due to discuss and agree additional measures designed to go further to bear down on the revenue Russia needs to finance Putin’s war machine; prevent Russia from accessing inputs to its military and industrial base; and demonstrate to Russia there is a price to pay for the damage it has caused to Ukraine.
Among those sanctioned today are:
- Russia’s Military Industrial Complex: 31 individuals and entities linked to designing and manufacturing drones and missile parts and importing and supplying key electronic components. This includes several directors and their immediate family members.
- Third Country Suppliers to Russia’s Military: JSC Display Design Bureau a Belarusian defence organisation linked to manufacturing military technology for the Belarusian regime, which has directly facilitated Putin’s illegal war; AVIO CHEM a Serbian company which has sent multiple shipments of aircraft parts and accessories to Russian entities;?MVIZION an Uzbek company which acted as intermediary to import parts to Russia; a Turkish entity Smart Trading Limited involved in the supply of sanctioned western electronics to Russia, and three Chinese entities, Asia Pacific Links Limited, Sinno Electronics Co., Limited, and Xinghua Co., Limited, supplying sanctioned goods, critical for Russia’s war efforts.
- Wagner Group related: three entities and individuals linked to the Wagner Group’s wider network, including RUSICH Military group a private Russian company active in Ukraine and its commander.
- Oil related: four UAE-based entities using opaque corporate structures and deceptive shipping practices to facilitate unfettered trade in Russian oil, bearing down on Russia’s efforts to generate war revenues.
Sanctions are starving Russia’s military of key Western components and technology. Alongside our partners, sanctions on international supply chains have resulted in a 98% reduction of Russian imports of battlefield technology from sanctioning countries. Pre-invasion Russia was a major exporter of arms. Instead, it is now having to turn to DPRK and Iran for unreliable equipment and to buy back parts it previously exported to other countries. While the world is moving forwards technologically, Russia is going backwards.
In tandem with today’s sanctions, the National Crime Agency has today issued an advisory for the UK’s regulated sector. This advisory provides banks and other firms with key red flags of transactions and customer attributes commonly associated with sanctions evasion. We call on industry to report all suspicious activity, and potential sanctions breaches as set out in the guidance.
Sanctions Minister, Anne-Marie Trevelyan said: “Today’s sanctions will hit Putin where it hurts, damaging Russian defence systems, and cracking down on illegal supply chains propping up Russia’s war machine.
Working alongside our G7 partners and international allies we will continue to ratchet up pressure on Putin and crack down on third parties providing restricted goods and technology to Russia, wherever they may be.”
Today’s sanctions tackle Russia’s repeated attempts to circumvent and offset the clear impact UK sanctions are having on its war effort.
In August the UK launched one of its largest ever actions targeting Russian military suppliers and last month took action to disrupt a covert procurement network used by Russia to acquire critical western technology. Today’s announcement builds on these actions and cracks down on those who continue to supply and fund Putin’s illegal war in Ukraine. See below the full list of individuals and organisations sanctioned by the UK today:
JSC SOYUZ
Arutyunov Alexander BORISOVICH
Dmitriy Vladimirovich BABAN
Kamo Stepanovich GUKASYAN
Mikhail Nikolaevich BYCHKOV
Mkrtich Stepanovich ARAKELYAN
Ganez, Stepanovich GUKASYAN
Semyon Mkrtychovich SIMONYAN
Stepan Kamoevich GUKASYAN
Vasilii Yuryevich KRITSKII
Vitalii Yuryevich BABENKOV
Vladimir Nikolaevich ANYUROV
Zorair Artyushevich APRESYAN
Andranik Mkrtichovich OKROYAN
Anna Mkrtichevna OKROYAN
Arutyun Okroevich OKROYAN
Vaso Mikhakovick OKROYAN
Mkrtich OKROYAN
JSC RESEARCH AND PRODUCTION ENTERPRISE RADAR MMS
JSC VOTKINSK MACHINE BUILDING PLANT
Dmitriy STREZHNEV
JSC RADIOTECHKOMPLEKT
JSC RATEP
Aleksandr ZAKHAROV
Svetlana ZAKHAROVA
Nikita ZAKHAROV
Mariya ZAKHAROVA
Lavrenty ZAKHAROV
ID SOLUTION
Aeroscan
Orion
Yan Igorovich PETROVSKIY
Task Force Rusich
Charter Green Light
OOO MVIZION
Smart Trading Limited Sti
Sinno Electronics Co., Limited
Asia Pacific Links Limited
Xinghua Co., Limited
JSC DISPLAY DESIGN BUREAU
Avio Chem
Oil Tankers (SCF) Management
K&O Shipmanagement
Radiating World Shipping Services
Star Voyages Shipping
Sergei Seergevich Tregub
(Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
06 Dec 23. Ukraine aid in peril as Senate Republicans walk out of heated briefing. Republican Sens. Deb Fischer and Mitt Romney walked side by side Tuesday as they hastily left the Biden administration’s classified briefing on a massive defense spending package that includes Ukraine and Israel aid, both visibly agitated. Fischer of Nebraska and Romney of Utah were among numerous Republicans to exit the briefing early. By their account, administration officials did not provide answers to their questions on Ukraine beyond what’s publicly available in unclassified public reports, compounding their frustration with Democrats for refusing to meet their demands for immigration policy changes in the legislation.
The unrelated partisan fight over immigration policy threatens to derail the roughly $113 bn package that also includes funding for the U.S. southern border and Indo-Pacific security partners, all while the Biden administration rapidly runs out of the little remaining Ukraine aid. It raises serious questions about whether Congress will continue providing aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invasion despite previous Senate Republican support for a a bipartisan defense supplemental package.
“We’ve had it,” Fischer said. “When you have Deb Fischer who’s upset about this, they better be worried. Because I have backed everything.”
Fischer, who sits on the Armed Services and Appropriations committees, has championed aid to Kyiv despite mounting House Republican opposition. She vented to reporters about her misgivings following the briefing — some of which extended beyond the immigration debate and marked Ukraine policy grievances set in motion months ago.
“The point is there’s no answer to any questions down there,” Fischer told Defense News, criticizing the Biden administration for requesting Ukraine aid via a supplemental rather than in its base budget proposal earlier this year. “They should have realized the issues. We’ve been very aware of the issues that we have in Ukraine with our own munitions.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was expected to address senators at the briefing via video but had to cancel, though it was unclear why. During a visit to Washington in September, he warned senators that Ukraine will lose the war if foreign assistance does not continue.
The Biden administration has less than $5bn in presidential drawdown authority to continue transferring weapons to Ukraine from U.S. stockpiles and $1bn to replenish weapons it’s already sent.
The director of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, Shalanda Young, said Monday in a letter to congressional leaders that the administration would run out of these funds by the end of the year.
“Frankly after the last few minutes, I’m beginning to worry about the supplemental passing at all before the first of the year,” Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, the top Republican on the Armed Services Committee and another Ukraine aid proponent, said after the briefing.
Wicker, who stayed for most of the briefing, told Defense News he found the administration’s answers lacking on its previous reluctance to send certain munitions — complaints pro-Ukraine Republicans have had for more than a year.
“That said, we very much need to pass a supplemental assisting our Israeli friends, our Ukrainian friends, getting ready for deterring war in the Pacific, and addressing our southern border, and part and parcel to our defense needs is the very inadequate submarine-industrial base,” Wicker argued.
‘A Russian city or Ukrainian city?’
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., told reporters Tuesday that House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., informed him in a phone call last week that he would not advance Ukraine aid if it does not include a hard-line immigration bill House Republicans passed earlier this year.
Nonetheless, Schumer has scheduled the first procedural vote on the behemoth supplemental package for Wednesday. But that vote is expected to fail after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said the Republican caucus will vote against it without the immigration policy changes the party is demanding.
Notably, McConnell has spent most of the last year making the case for Ukraine aid to critics in his party and had previously supported a defense spending supplemental with the assistance to bypass the $886 bn caps laid out in the May debt ceiling agreement.
Heritage Action, the lobbying wing of the conservative Heritage Foundation, sent a letter to Johnson on Tuesday asking him to “strongly oppose” the Ukraine aid. The letter calls for no more assistance unless the Biden administration “provides a plan that defines the end goal in Ukraine, describes the expected U.S. commitment to achieve that goal, addresses the effects of the presidential drawdown authority on U.S. capabilities and assures further commitments from our European partners.”
Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said that “a cynic would say the goal here is to take down Ukraine funding.”
“We are making the decision right now as to whether Kyiv is a Russian city or Ukrainian city,” Murphy told Defense News. “My level of frustration about the lack of seriousness from Republicans is due to the stakes that we are dealing with. And the stakes are whether Ukraine exists 12 months from now or is a part of Russia.”
The Senate’s proposed bill would provide $13.5bn to continue arming Ukraine through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. It allocates another $15.1bn for the Defense Department to continue supporting Kyiv with military training, intelligence sharing and “an increased presence in the European Command area of responsibility,” per a Senate summary of the bill.
On top of that, the bill appropriates $24.5bn to replenish weapons that the U.S. has already sent to Ukraine and Israel through its stockpiles. It also sets aside another $15.3bn in Israel military aid and $2.8 bn to increase capacity for the munitions-industrial base.
The bill does not place conditions on aid to Israel despite conversations among Senate Democrats about doing so last week.
It also allocates $3bn at Wicker’s insistence to help prepare the beleaguered submarine-industrial base for the trilateral AUKUS agreement that would see the U.S. and Britain help Australia build a nuclear-powered submarine fleet. Wicker has promised to hold up two key AUKUS authorizations from the annual defense policy bill unless Congress appropriates that funding. (Source: C4ISR & Networks)
06 Dec 23. DIO fully committed to training Ukraine Armed Forces.
Today is Ukraine Armed Forces Day and DIO is proud to be playing a key role in supporting the UK-based training of thousands of Ukrainian volunteer recruits.
Urban Training Village has a complete makeover to ensure training for Ukrainian volunteers is as realistic as possible. Crown copyright.
As well as delivering the feeding and housing of trainees, our teams across the Defence Training Estate are working hard to ensure that the training, and training facilities, are as realistic and fully immersive as possible.
There are a total of six Defence Training Estate sites currently being used, spanning a total of 18,410 hectares across different parts of the UK – that’s equivalent to almost 45,500 football pitches.
Some of the training areas have been specifically adapted to deliver bespoke facilities to meet the specific needs of the Ukrainian trainees. At such sites, it’s a mammoth task, the building of Russian-style trench systems alone at one site required the excavation of 15,000 tonnes of material and 70 kilometres of wire.
One urban training village in East Anglia has undergone a complete makeover to ensure the training for the Ukrainian volunteers is as realistic as possible.
Captain Joe Heywood (4 SCOTS) is the Training Officer for the revamped village, he said: “This facility is used to replicate fighting in villages or built-up areas. What we have here is a really good replica of what the trainees would see in Ukraine. The realistic nature of this facility is really useful, it helps them to get a feel for moving about the terrain, building ‘muscle memory’ – it’s a very immerse experience for those training. It looks like a war-torn village, which really helps for when they arrive on the frontline back in Ukraine.”
As well as creating state-of-the-art training areas, DIO has also provided 50 classrooms to enable the delivery of lessons such as essential first aid and the theory behind basic combat skills.
The Training Estate is constantly poised to support pre-deployment training for our own personnel at short notice, so the training areas are running at a high tempo. DIO teams, along with Training Estate contractor Landmarc Support Services (Landmarc), play a vital role in enabling not only the training exercises but also ensuring that supporting infrastructure and facilities are available.
There has been a huge uplift in the less glamourous tasks delivered, with Landmarc working closely with DIO to manage the surge in catering, laundry and waste disposal.
Supporting the delivery of Ukraine training, in a year, there were 3,238,499 meals served, 259,128 bags of laundry cleaned and an additional 600,657kg of waste processed.
DIO Senior Training Safety Officer for the urban village, Smudge Smith, explained:
DIO is housing the troops, feeding the troops and we are giving them the safe place to train. We manage the access and availability of all the training facilities that the troops require so it’s a big task, even at this one site.
This urban training village has really enhanced the training, we have smoke generators, noise simulators, crashed vehicles, rubble, and that sort of thing. DIO has brought that in to give the soldiers under training a realistic but safe place to train. It’s all part of the support we can offer.
The training being delivered on our sites has so far helped to equip around 30,000 Ukrainian personnel with battle-proven skills and expertise. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
06 Dec 23. Zelensky abruptly cancels US congress appearance amid funding row. Several Republican senators walked out of a classified briefing on Ukraine, after President Volodymyr Zelensky unexpectedly cancelled his appearance to appeal for continued US funding.
Mr Zelensky had been due to update the senators on the latest developments in the conflict with Russia and press for them to support a procedural vote expected Wednesday on an emergency aid package that includes more than $60bn for Kyiv.
The cash has been held up for weeks by a dispute in Congress, as the White House has warned that existing funds will run out by the end of the year and that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin could win the war if lawmakers fail to act.
The briefing descended into a row over the border crisis. Utah’s Mitt Romney left early, confirming that “a number” of his Republican colleagues had followed suit, angry that they heard nothing on their demand that Ukraine aid be coupled with action on the migrant crisis at the US-Mexico border.
It comes as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the United States would be “responsible for Ukraine’s defeat” if Congress fails to approve the Biden administration’s latest multi-bn-dollar funding request for the war-torn country. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
06 Dec 23. Ukrainians prepare for a long war. Will the West stay the course?
- Summary
- No end in sight after more than 21 months of war
- Ukrainians highly dependent on Western military aid
- Ukrainian counteroffensive brought no big breakthrough
Oleksii Tilnenko hoped this would be the year Ukraine drove Russian forces out of swathes of occupied land. As 2023 draws to a close, his southern hometown of Kherson is still being pounded by shelling and the front line has barely budged.
Tilnenko, who fled Kherson last year and lives in Kyiv where he helps internally displaced people (IDPs), believes Russia is racing to rebuild its much larger armed forces to step up its war effort.
“The hope is the West can somehow mobilise, somehow fire up its defence industry to renew equipment and produce what’s needed to defend our ordinary citizens,” said the 36-year-old.
More than 21 months into the biggest conflict in Europe since World War Two, fighting rages with no end in sight and neither side has landed a telling blow on the battlefield.
Ukrainian soldiers, living in freezing trenches, acknowledge they are exhausted going into a second winter of full-scale war with a resource-rich, nuclear-armed superpower that has more than triple Ukraine’s population.
Ukrainians know they must secure Western military aid to carry on – and that it will be harder with the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza distracting global attention.
Russian troops, who occupy about 17.5% of Ukraine, are again on the offensive in the east after largely withstanding a Ukrainian counteroffensive that was unable to punch through sprawling defensive lines in the south and east.
The darkening outlook contrasts starkly with Kyiv’s buoyant mood a year ago, after Ukrainians defied expectations by beating back Russian troops around their capital before recapturing territory in the northeast and south, including Kherson city.
WHY IT MATTERS
The toll keeps mounting in a war that has already killed or wounded hundreds of thousands of people, destroyed Ukrainian cities, towns and villages, forced ms from their homes and placed hundreds of thousands more under occupation.
Drone and missile strikes are a part of daily life. In the northeastern city of Kharkiv, schools are being built underground so children can study in classrooms without dying in an air strike.
Tilnenko heads Crimea SOS, a group that helps Ukraine’s 5m IDPs. He says he has no plans to return to Kherson because of the constant threat from artillery and guided aerial bombs.
He feels Western military aid should have come faster, in larger volumes and in a less piecemeal fashion. Air power vital for the counteroffensive, he says, was sorely lacking this year and promised F-16 fighter jets have not been delivered.
The passage of vital military and financial assistance from the West is no longer happening smoothly.
U.S. President Joe Biden has made a Ukrainian victory a foreign policy goal as he campaigns for re-election in November 2024, but the fate of a $60 bn aid package proposed by Biden is uncertain because of opposition by some Republicans.
A separate, four-year 20bn euro ($21.75bn) European Union military aid proposal has also run into resistance from some bloc members.
The lack of significant Ukrainian headway on the battlefield this year could also hurt Biden politically in an election in which could herald a comeback by former President Donald Trump, who called on Congress this summer to withhold aid to Ukraine.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR 2024
Some Ukrainians, including Tilnenko, believe Russian President Vladimir Putin will use any let-up in fighting to build further defences and regenerate the Russian army for a new assault.
Putin may feel he can escalate Russia’s war effort further once, as expected, he has secured another six-year term in the Kremlin in an election next March.
Ukraine was also due to hold a presidential election in March, but this will not happen because of martial law. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy put an end to speculation that a workaround would be found last month, saying now was “not the time” for an election.
The strain of the war is likely to weigh on society and the political landscape over the coming year. Reforms underway to make army recruitment and conscription more efficient illustrate the sensitive but important issues the government must navigate.
Tilnenko says war fatigue is a fact of life.
“Everyone’s tired. The soldiers are tired, victims are tired, the IDPs are tired. But there’s no way out. We can’t just give up and say ‘okay, fine’. At the very least, too many people have died. We hope it’ll get easier. And we’ll see how it goes.” ($1 = 0.9197 euros)(Source: Reuters)
05 Dec 23. Visiting the secret Ukrainian drone testing site racing to keep up with Russian production. Short-range drones are one of the most effective weapons in the war with Russia, but they need to be thoroughly tested before they can be deployed.
Forces News has visited a secret Ukrainian drone testing site where one engineer warned Ukraine is struggling to keep up with Russian production.
Ukraine cannot match Russia in terms of conventional airpower, but has used attack drones to great effect.
But since the 2022 invasion, Russia has become more savvy in terms of countering Ukrainian drones as well as stepping up the production of its own fleet of uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Russian forces have deployed more jamming technology – and there are reports of Russian shopping centres being repurposed and turned into drone research laboratories and factories.
Our rifle is our brain
A Ukrainian drone engineer known only as “Maxim” told Forces News how his country was now producing far fewer drones compared with Russia.
“Russia produce thousands and thousands per week of every type of drone. Also the borders are open with China,” he said.
“The border is open, you can easily buy all components which you really need.”
With official Chinese parts in short supply, Ukraine is trying to make more of its own UAVs.
It has earmarked an extra £1bn of its defence budget next year to buy drones, with small volunteer groups across the country using their skills to help defend Ukraine.
This has seen them trying to make drones that can fly deeper, carry more payload and avoid detection.
Maxim told Forces News that it makes him smile when he sees the drones being used on Russian positions because it helps Ukraine “win this war”.
“We know that as engineers our rifle is our brain,” he explained.
Some of the UAVs cost just a few hundred pounds to make, but in the right hands they can disable or even destroy Russian equipment worth ms.
This summer’s counter-offensive accelerated Ukraine’s use of small attack drones which, depending on their size, could be armed with the likes of an RPG warhead or fragmentation grenade.
One of the larger drones can only be flown at night as it is loud and heavy. This makes it too easy for Russian forces to spot during the day, so the operator waits until after dark, controlling the UAV with a high-tech thermal camera.
However Ukraine’s use of drones has not come without cost as several Ukrainian drone operators have been killed due to their payload falling off and exploding, so it is now essential that each attack drone is thoroughly tested before being deployed.
Hundreds of companies are now building drones across Ukraine, with each unit being checked to ensure that its avionics and electronics are working properly – and that any munitions it carries are secure.
Maxim is one of a number of young men, many engineering students and all volunteers, who are are carrying out tests to ensure the drones are both functional and safe for the operators to fly.
The back of van is used as a makeshift control room, from which the volunteers can evaluate how each drone flies, what payload it can carry and how far.
In Ukraine, drones are no longer a hobby, but a technological frontline.
(Source: forces.net)
05 Dec 23. Letter to Congressional Leadership Regarding the Need for Urgent Action to Support Ukraine’s Defense
The Honorable Mike Johnson
Speaker of the House of Representatives
Washington, DC 20515
Dear Mr. Speaker,
I want to thank Congress for the resources provided to date for Ukraine and other critical national security needs. I write to you today not only to be clear about how that money has been spent and the ways this investment has halted Russia’s advances in Ukraine, helped Ukraine achieve significant military victories, and revitalized the American Defense Industrial Base (DIB)—but to express the acute urgency we face as Congress weighs whether we continue to fight for freedom across the globe or we ignore the lessons we have learned from history and let Putin and autocracy prevail.
I want to be clear: without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from U.S. military stocks. There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment. We are out of money—and nearly out of time.
Cutting off the flow of U.S. weapons and equipment will kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield, not only putting at risk the gains Ukraine has made, but increasing the likelihood of Russian military victories. Already, our packages of security assistance have become smaller and the deliveries of aid have become more limited. If our assistance stops, it will cause significant issues for Ukraine. While our allies around the world have stepped up to do more, U.S. support is critical and cannot be replicated by others.
To date, you have supported $111bn in supplemental funding to support Ukraine and critical national security needs. Of that, $67 bn, approximately 60 percent of the Ukraine supplemental funding that Congress has previously authorized, has bolstered our DIB in America or supported DOD and intelligence operations. That has improved our own military readiness since DOD is buying new equipment to replace what we are sending Ukraine, jumpstarting and expanding production lines, and is supporting good-paying jobs in dozens of states across the country.
As of mid-November, DOD has used 97 percent of the $62.3bn it received, and State has used 100 percent of the $4.7bn in military assistance it received. Approximately $27.2bn, or 24 percent, has been used for economic assistance and civilian security assistance (such as demining) to Ukraine, which is just as essential to Ukraine’s survival as military assistance. State and USAID have used 100 percent of this amount. If Ukraine’s economy collapses, they will not be able to keep fighting, full stop. Putin understands this well, which is why Russia has made destroying Ukraine’s economy central to its strategy—which you can see in its attacks against Ukraine’s grain exports and energy infrastructure.
Of the approximately $10bn in emergency funding for State and USAID humanitarian assistance, nearly $2.3bn has gone directly toward humanitarian needs of those displaced or vulnerable populations inside Ukraine, and approximately $500m to support refugees from Ukraine seeking safety in neighboring countries in the region. The remainder of the funding, approximately three quarters, has supported needs of vulnerable populations around the world who have been made victims by Putin’s use of food as a weapon in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the resulting impacts on global food security. This funding is now depleted.
The President’s most recent national security supplemental request will build on our successful efforts to date and will direct over $50 bn into our nation’s DIB, which builds on the funding that has already been invested in manufacturing lines across 35 states. While we cannot predict exactly which U.S companies will be awarded new contracts, we do know the funding will be used to acquire advanced capabilities to defend against attacks on civilians in Israel and Ukraine—for example, air defense systems built in Alabama, Texas, and Georgia and vital subcomponents sourced from nearly all 50 states. We will modernize vital munitions and equipment like Javelins made in Alabama; Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) made in West Virginia, Arkansas and Texas; tactical vehicles made in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana; and 155mm artillery shells made in Pennsylvania, Arkansas, and Iowa and many other states.
I must stress that helping Ukraine defend itself and secure its future as a sovereign, democratic, independent, and prosperous nation advances our national security interests. It prevents larger conflict in the region that could involve NATO and put U.S. forces in harm’s way and deters future aggression, making us all safer. As President Biden has said, when dictators do not pay a price for their aggression, they will cause more chaos and death and destruction. They just keep on going, and the cost and the threats to America and to the world will keep rising. The path that Congress chooses will reverberate for many years to come.
We are out of money to support Ukraine in this fight. This isn’t a next year problem. The time to help a democratic Ukraine fight against Russian aggression is right now. It is time for Congress to act.
Sincerely,
Shalanda D. Young
Identical Letter Sent to:
The Honorable Mike Johnson
The Honorable Hakeem Jeffries
The Honorable Charles Schumer
The Honorable Mitch McConnell
(Source: White House/Paul Hough)
05 Dec 23. Russian air defence systems destroy 41 Ukraine-launched drones -Russian defence ministry. Russian air defence systems destroyed or intercepted a total of 41 Ukraine-launched drones overnight and early morning on Tuesday, the Russian defence ministry said.
Twenty-six of the drones were destroyed over Russian territory, and 15 were intercepted over the Sea of Azov and the Crimean Peninsula, the ministry said in a statement on its Telegram channel.
The ministry did not say whether there was any damage caused by the attack or falling debris. Reuters could not independently verify the report. There was no immediate comment from Ukraine. (Source: Reuters)
04 Dec 23. US aid to Ukraine will run out ‘by end of month.’ US aid to Ukraine will run out by the end of the month unless a new funding package is agreed, the White House has said.
Shalanda Young, director of the office of management and budget, told Congress and Senate leaders that “we are out of money and nearly out of time” in a publicly-released letter.
Republicans in Congress are stonewalling a funding package proposed by Joe Biden which would provide £48bn ($61bn) in new aid for Ukraine.
“I want to be clear: without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from US military stocks,” Mrs Young wrote.
“There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment.”
Ukraine has been desperately pushing for more foreign aid as Russian forces step up attacks in the east after holding back Kyiv’s much-vaunted counteroffensive. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
04 Dec 23. Despite Ukraine War Needs, Arms Sales Troubled by Production Woes. Many Western arms companies failed to ramp up production in 2022 despite a strong increase in demand for weapons and military equipment, a watchdog group said Monday, adding that labor shortages, soaring costs and supply chain disruptions had been exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In its Top 100 of such firms, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI, said the arms revenue of the world’s largest arms-producing and military services companies last year stood at $597 bn — a 3.5% drop from 2021.
“Many arms companies faced obstacles in adjusting to production for high-intensity warfare,” said Lucie Beraud-Sudreau, director of the independent institute’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program.
SIPRI said the revenues of the 42 U.S. companies on the list — accounting for 51% of total arms sales — fell by 7.9% to $302 bn in 2022. Of those, 32 recorded a fall in year-on-year arms revenue, most of them citing ongoing supply chain issues and labor shortages stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nan Tian, a senior researcher with SIPRI, said that “we are beginning to see an influx of new orders linked to the war in Ukraine.”
He cited some major U.S. companies, including Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies, and said that because of “existing order backlogs and difficulties in ramping up production capacity, the revenue from these orders will probably only be reflected in company accounts in two to three years’ time.”
Companies in Asia and the Middle East saw their arms revenues grow significantly in 2022, the institute said in its assessment, saying it demonstrated “their ability to respond to increased demand within a shorter time frame.” SIPRI singled out Israel and South Korea.
“However, despite the year-on-year drop, the total Top 100 arms revenue was still 14% higher in 2022 than in 2015 — the first year for which SIPRI included Chinese companies in its ranking.
SIPRI also said that countries placed new orders late in the year and the time lag between orders and production meant that the surge in demand was not reflected in these companies’ 2022 revenues.
“However, new contracts were signed, notably for ammunition, which could be expected to translate into higher revenue in 2023 and beyond,” Beraud-Sudreau said. (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Voice of America News)
04 Dec 23. Downed Russian Shahed was using a Ukrainian SIM Card.
One of Russia’s downed Shahed drones was reportedly found last week with a Ukrainian SIM card inside, suggesting that the technology was used to pilot the explosive attack drone, according to war analysts.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington, DC-based think tank, said in an assessment published on Thursday that Russian forces were reportedly using SIM cards from Kyivstar, the largest telecommunications operator in Ukraine, “to control Shahed drones” in Moscow’s grinding war against Kyiv.
ISW cited a Ukrainian source that reported on Wednesday that “a downed Russian Shahed drone included a Kyivstar SIM card, which reportedly allows Russian forces to exploit the Kyivstar mobile network to track the drone’s location and change its flight path.”
Independent Russian media outlet Meduza reported that Kyivstar said in a post to X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter, that it is working with law enforcement agencies to prevent similar incidents from happening in the future.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ignat said Ukraine is probing what Russia’s military’s capabilities are with a Ukrainian SIM card and access to the internet on Ukrainian territory as well as whether drones could be operated in this way, according to Meduza. (Source: UAS VISION/Business Insider)
03 Dec 23. BAE Systems resumes production of M2 Bradley and M777.
Tom Arseneault, CEO of BAE Systems in the United States, stated this in an interview with Defense News. Arsenault shared that the company is currently working on replacing combat vehicles and ammunition, which were transferred to Ukraine as military assistance.
For example, the United States Army increased orders for AMPV (Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicle) armored personnel carriers, which are considered a replacement for ?113.
It is also reported that BAE Systems is working to resume production of M777 155mm howitzers, the demand for which was cut after the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
“Now, given the elevated visibility of the importance of artillery in conflicts like this, it received some renewed interest. The Army is working with us to reconstitute that,” Arseneault said.
When asked about the review of the feasibility of producing some weapons, Arseneault replied that the company had received an order for about 100 new Bradley M2.
“And while we planned to wind down production of Bradley over the next few years, we have orders for hundreds of other, newer machines,” he noted.
Defense News reporters asked the BAE CEO about the combination of means of different technological levels in the Russian-Ukrainian war and their future. Arseneault replied that no one could have predicted this, and the company is ready for new challenges.
M777 howitzer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Photo from open sources
He compared FPV drones to the threat of improvised explosive devices in Afghanistan and Iraq, calling them “flying IEDs.”
“In the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, there was the rise of the improvised explosive device. That sort of came out of nowhere and became a real problem. Well, now there are flying IEDs,” Arseneault replied.
Arseneault also complained about delays in the adoption of defense spending and the complications of the work of the military industry associated with this.
“Industry has gotten accustomed to this delay, and the DoD has as well in the way they time their spending. But especially when the demand is up, and they have these needs on multiple fronts, it’s a big problem. While it has not manifested itself yet, the longer this pushes out into 2024, it will borderline cripple a number of services in terms of their plans,” the CEO shared.
Militarnyi has repeatedly reported on expanding the production capacity of defense companies and increasing the rate of armament production.
However, at the same time, the mass rearmament of European countries causes queues and disruptions in the timing of arms supplies for both Ukraine and its allies. (Source: News Now/https://mil.in.ua/en/news)
04 Dec 23. Russia launches 23 drones, cruise missiles overnight on Ukraine – Ukraine’s Air Force. Russia launched 23 drones and a cruise missile overnight on Ukraine, Ukraine’s air force said on Monday, adding that its air defence systems destroyed the missile and 18 of the drones before they reached their targets. Anti-aircraft defense was deployed in at least 9 regions of Ukraine, the air force said on the Telegram messaging app. Reuters could not independently verify the report.
The air force did not provide details on what happened to the drones that were not destroyed or whether there was any damage in result of the attack. (Source: Reuters)
02 Dec 23. Disputes within the EU over money and Ukraine’s future are endangering crucial pledges to Kyiv made months ago — just when the flow of US financial and military support for Ukraine has abruptly stalled in a politically divided Congress. EU member states are far from reaching a deal over topping up the bloc’s joint budget — including €50bn for Ukraine — ahead of a summit in Brussels on December 14-15, said officials involved in the discussions. EU efforts to reach a compromise are being hampered by the victory of a far-right party in last month’s Dutch election and a recent German court ruling curbing the government’s borrowing. A budget agreement would be “very, very difficult”, a senior official said. Meanwhile, the Biden administration’s proposed $60bn package is struggling to pass through Congress. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Friday again vowed to veto the start of Ukraine’s EU membership talks, telling public radio it was “contrary to the interests of several member states” and accession might only be possible “many years from now”. “We are in a good enough shape to dare say so, no matter the pressure we come under,” he said. A failure to approve long-term funding, a separate €20bn facility for weapons purchases and the start of accession negotiations would be a hammer blow to Kyiv after the failure of its summer counteroffensive and growing concern about faltering western support. Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, last week described the EU summit as an “existential moment” for her country. “It is crucial that the continued support for Ukraine remains and that we Europeans play our role,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo told the Financial Times. Ukraine has warned that the uncertainty over US and European support packages is putting the country’s “macro-financial stability” at risk. The €50bn proposed by the EU is designed to keep Kyiv solvent to 2027. “It is a moment of truth,” said an EU official. “If you say you stand by Ukraine, you have to step up to the plate.” Germany and other states have vowed to give Brussels no additional funds beyond that required for Kyiv, while others are demanding extra cash for domestically sensitive issues such as migration. Orbán also opposes the funding package. EU officials note that he has relented on Ukraine decisions before and are trying to assess whether he has a price for his support, including the release of some of the €22bn in EU funds blocked by Brussels over rule of law concerns. EU officials last week indicated that the European Commission was close to unblocking up to €10bn for Budapest, as reforms enacted earlier this year had strengthened judicial independence. However, Hungarian officials insist there is no link between Ukraine and the funds issue, and EU officials and diplomats say that this time the Hungarian leader seems more implacable. “There’s a lot of fog that needs to be lifted in the next weeks. And today there’s so much fog that I don’t see very far away what’s coming,” said De Croo. Recommended Alec Russell Ukraine’s long war — and how to win it Brussels’ Ukraine funding has become a political football in a wider debate over the EU’s budget priorities, due to the decision by the commission to combine the Kyiv support in a proposal with other funding requests to top up its 2021-27 budget. The €50bn for Ukraine — made up of €17bn in grants and €33bn in loans — has been bundled up with requests for €15bn in new money for migration, €10bn for investments in “strategic technologies” and almost €19bn to pay off interest on the EU’s joint borrowing. At the last EU leaders’ summit in October, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed the commission’s calculations as “a comic”, according to multiple people briefed on the private debate. Officials said EU negotiations over the budget were always going to be difficult but a compromise was still possible. A revised package is expected to be proposed before the summit. “I think the doom and gloom around this issue is vastly over-exaggerated,” said one EU official involved in the discussions. “We are not going to allow Ukraine to experience a sovereign default.” But resistance from finance ministries wary of additional spending has been stiffened by the decision of Germany’s constitutional court striking down the use of pandemic emergency borrowing facilities for future green investment, and by the victory of far-right, anti-EU politician Geert Wilders in the Dutch election. (Source: FT.com)
02 Dec 23. Russia’s military has bought hundreds of Chinese all-terrain vehicles popular in the US, in a move that risks heightening tensions between the west and Beijing over President Xi Jinping’s tacit backing for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s purchases open up the buggy manufacturer Shandong Odes Industry to retaliation from authorities in the US, where the vehicles are popular among farmers and powersports enthusiasts. China has insisted it is not selling military equipment to Russia, but Ukraine’s allies are concerned about sales of non-lethal goods useful for defence industries or on the battlefield. Russian President Vladimir Putin inspected the Desertcross 1000-3 utility terrain vehicle earlier this month alongside defence minister Sergei Shoigu, who said the Chinese-made buggy “was extremely in demand”. Social media footage has shown Russian soldiers using them in the field. The Russian military was already fielding 537 “basic” versions of Shandong Odes’s Desertcross 1000-3 and planned to buy another 1,500 with “additional options”, state newswire Tass reported, citing a panel the defence ministry put up next to the vehicle seen by Putin. In a clear warning last month, US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen said Russia was “dependent on willing third-country individuals and entities to resupply its military and perpetuate its heinous war against Ukraine”. “We will not hesitate in holding them accountable,” Yellen said. Russia’s use of the vehicles comes as Putin’s military increasingly turns to Chinese suppliers for equipment needed to maintain its invasion of Ukraine, and highlights the dilemma facing Chinese companies whose sales to Russia could expose them to retaliation from Washington. Shandong Odes would be particularly vulnerable to such retaliation because of its high volume of US sales. Experts said the use of the vehicles also reflected Russia’s limited military manufacturing capacity as it deploys the non-armoured buggies in the field. A Desertcross 1000-3 utility terrain vehicle © Reuters Shandong Odes claims to have hundreds of dealers around the world including in the US and Europe, where it sells under the Aodes brand. There are more than 100 dealerships licensed to sell Aodes-branded vehicles in the US to a market ranging from ranchers to holidaymakers. It is not known how many they sell, but bills of lading show Shandong Odes as having shipped 4,200 heavy items to the US that were labelled as “low speed” or “all-terrain” vehicles in the past year. Aodes is the top-selling brand for such buggies at Play-N-Around Motorsports in Pinehurst, Texas, and the US version of the Desertcross 1000-3 — which sells for about $20,000 in the US — is one of the models it offers. But while general manager Branden Williamson said he was “absolutely” aware the vehicles were being used by Russian troops, he added that it would only be an issue if resulting sanctions forced up prices. “It doesn’t make a difference to me that another company is using their product for [the Russian] military,” Williamson said. Russian customs records show Shandong Odes has exported vehicles to a number of civilian buyers. They suggest it sent 137 Desertcross vehicles in March and April — worth about $1.6m in sales. The principal buyer was Formula 7, a Russian motorsports company. Shandong Odes declined to comment and its US headquarters did not respond to a request for comment. A person close to the company denied that it sold the vehicles to the Russian military or Russian dealers. Pavel Luzin, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation who studies the Russian military, said Russia could have bought the vehicles on the secondary market without Shandong Odes’s knowledge. “They might be better than the motorcycles or old [Soviet-made vehicles] Russian soldiers are widely using now, but no more than that,” Luzin said. “This is yet more demonstration that Russia can’t produce that much equipment or goods for its army.” In numerous high-level visits to Beijing in recent months, European leaders have called on China to use its close ties with Russia to persuade it to withdraw from Ukraine. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president Charles Michel are set to visit Beijing this week for the first in-person EU-China summit in four years, which is expected to involve tough talks on Ukraine and trade. But Xi and Putin continue to hail their deep friendship and growing trade ties. China has insisted it is not selling military equipment to Russia, but Ukraine’s allies are concerned about sales of non-lethal goods useful for defence industries or the battlefield. Chinese exports of lorries to Russia have surged, freeing Moscow’s domestic producers to focus on supporting the war effort. In January 2022, on the eve of the full-scale invasion, official Chinese data suggests Russia bought $32m worth of heavy goods vehicles and trailer trucks. In July, such imports peaked at almost a bn dollars. Last month, they were worth $378m. (Source: FT.com)
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