NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

24 Nov. 23

BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
DONETSK: On 24 November, Vitaliy Barabash, the head of the Ukrainian Avdiivka military administration, said Russian assaults against Avdiivka are coming ‘from all directions’ as part of Russia’s third offensive wave in the sector. Barabash said that while Russian forces attacked from the flanks in previous offensive waves, namely at the south and north of the city, in the latest offensive push they have been launching assaults from Donetsk through Spartak (south of Avdiivka) in a bid to stretch out the frontline. According to Barabash, Russian assaults from Donetsk are primarily infantry-led, with heavy equipment used in the industrial area north of Avdiivka. The Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces have been making heavy use of aviation strikes, including guided aerial bombs and cluster bombs, over the past few days. He also said the Russian troops might use more heavy equipment under favourable weather conditions. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces repelled 20 assaults.
KHERSON: Russian sources continued to report on 23 November that Ukrainian forces are modestly expanding their footholds on the left bank of the Dnieper River (Kherson oblast). Russian forces are likely regrouping additional units in preparation for a more concerted effort to dislodge Ukrainian positions, but at present Ukrainian forces are clearly maintaining their current positions, particularly around Krynky, located 22 miles (36km) north-east of Kherson city.
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that air defences shot down 13 Ukrainian drones over Crimea and three drones over Volgograd oblast early on 24 November. According to a prominent Russian milblogger, the drone strike in Crimea was targeting either a railway station or a military airbase in Dzhankoi. Meanwhile, overnight on 23-24 November, Ukrainian air defences reportedly intercepted three Russian-launched Shahed-136/131 drones and two Kh-59 cruise missiles.
STRIKES: On 24 November, German Ambassador to Ukraine Martin Jäger stated Germany will supply Ukraine with another US-made Patriot air defence system. The Patriot system has proven to be effective in countering Russian ballistic missiles. The provision will most likely bolster Ukrainian air defences over the winter, but the number of such air defence systems remains such that Ukraine will have to prioritise certain sites over others, leaving large gaps in the country’s air defence network.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

CHINA: Russian and Chinese business executives connected to their respective governments have allegedly held covert discussions to build an underwater tunnel connecting de jure Russian territory to annexed Crimea. The Washington Post reported on 24 November, citing communications intercepted by Ukraine’s security services, that the talks were prompted by growing Russian concerns over the security of the Kerch Strait bridge. It has served as a key logistics line for the Russian military and travelling to and from the occupied peninsula, but remains a vulnerable target for Ukrainian attacks. One email dated 4 October describes the Chinese Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) as being ready to ensure the construction of railway and road construction projects of ‘any complexity’ in the Crimean peninsula.
CHINA: While the veracity of the report cannot be confirmed, it almost certainly underscores Moscow’s efforts to maintain control over Crimea in the long term, despite Kyiv’s determination to reclaim the territory. It is highly unlikely that the project (if it were to go ahead) would be completed in the near term given the engineering complexity. The tunnel would likely be vulnerable to Ukraine or pro-Ukraine partisan sabotage attacks if and when completed. Nevertheless, the West would likely impose secondary sanctions on Chinese entities involved in the project, which could serve to deter significant Chinese involvement.
SANCTIONS: Just over half (52%) of Russian crude oil and oil products were transported by ‘shadow tankers’ which are not subject to the price cap of USD 60 per barrel (pb). According to a report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) on 23 November, Russia’s export revenues for October were the second-highest for 2023 despite a 2% month-on-month decline. CREA noted that if the cap for crude oil was set at USD 30 pb, this would have cut Russia’s revenue by 52% (EUR 7.82 billion) in October alone. Meanwhile, if this limit had been enforced since December 2022, when the price cap was set, Moscow’s oil export revenues could have been reduced by EUR 59 billion (49%).
SANCTIONS: International media reported on 23 November that three major Greek shipping firms have stopped transporting Russian oil in recent weeks to avoid US sanctions. According to unspecified traders familiar with the matter and data from shipping agents, the three firms actively shipped Russian oil and fuels up until September-October. They allegedly rejected requests for Russian crude loading in November and after. While this reduces the number of shipping firms ready to transport Russian oil, Moscow reportedly still has enough shipping firms to transport its goods for now. As such, the risk of Western (particularly US) sanctions will likely deter some shipping firms from transporting Russian oil in the coming months, though not all companies will be discouraged by punitive measures.

FORECAST

EU: On 23 November, the European Commission (EC) approved the release of EUR 900 million in advance funding to Hungary under the bloc’s REPowerEU energy transition and recovery plan. The release is notable as Budapest’s recovery funds have been frozen as part of ongoing disputes over corruption and the rule of law. The timing is also noteworthy as Hungary reportedly recently threatened to block further EU aid to Ukraine and to undermine its EU accession bid. As such, the move is likely in part aimed at softening Budapest’s stance on further assistance for Kyiv and the opening of accession talks for Ukraine to join the bloc. However, it is uncertain if this tranche of funding alone will sway Hungary.

European Council President Charles Michel will travel to Hungary on 27 November for a bilateral meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán ahead of a gathering of EU leaders in mid-December. It comes after Orbán allegedly wrote a letter to Michel in which he demanded that the bloc review its entire strategy of support for Ukraine (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 23 November 2023). As such, Michel’s visit is highly likely aimed at ironing out internal divisions within the EU from the Hungarian side ahead of the summit in December in the hopes of greater unifying the bloc’s policy towards Ukraine. However, Budapest will likely continue to create obstacles for Kyiv’s EU accession and future aid packages.

23 Nov.

BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
DONETSK: On 23 November, the commander Ukraine’s Tavriisk group of forces, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, reported that Russian troops have launched their third offensive push in the Avdiivka sector. The latest offensive push is part of Russia’s broader offensive launched in the sector on in early October. Tarnavskyi said that Russian troops lost 706 personnel, eight tanks, 13 armoured vehicles. While he did not provide a clear timeframe, this likely meant within the last 24 hours. While such figures could potentially be exaggerated, they nonetheless’ reflect the high attrition rate of Russia’s operations in the sector.
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Geolocated footage posted on 22 November shows that Russian forces marginally advanced east of Synkivka, a settlement located five miles (8km) north-east of Kupiansk. On 22 November, a Russian milblogger claimed Russian troops made small advances in the Serebrianske forest area, located six miles (10km) south-west of Kreminna. However, on 23 November, the same milblogger reported that Ukrainian forces successfully counter-attacked in the sector. A Ukrainian observer reported on 22 November that Russian forces are finishing a regrouping of forces in the Kupiansk sector, after which they will possibly increase the tempo of operations.
STRIKES: Nothing significant to report

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

FINLAND: On 22 November, Helsinki announced that it will close three additional checkpoints along its border with Russia as of 0000hrs (local time) on 23-24 November following a sharp uptick in irregular migrant arrivals allegedly orchestrated by Russia. The decision means that the only operational crossing in Finland is the Raja-Joosepi crossing (Inari municipality) in the far north of the country. This will further diminish already severely reduced levels of Finnish-Russian trade. The corresponding Russian checkpoint, Lotta, is located in a heavily forested area of Murmansk oblast with limited nearby infrastructure.
FINLAND: The governor of Murmansk oblast, Andrei Chibis, announced on 22 November that a ‘high alert’ regime was introduced in the region in response to Finland’s decision. Chibis did not provide further specifics as to what this entails, but said a number of additional measures were also implemented to ensure the security of Murmansk oblast’s residents. The official claimed that the additional border closures mean that the number of irregular migrants wanting to enter a NATO country through Russian territory is likely to increase exponentially – highly likely a reference to Russia’s plans to create an artificial migrant crisis along the border.
FINLAND: The migrant arrivals are likely being orchestrated by Russia in retaliation to an impending Finnish-US defence deal that will grant the US military access to bases in Finland. Helsinki hopes that the near-total border closure will limit the possibility of a major migrant crisis akin to that orchestrated by Belarus along its borders with the Baltic states and Poland in 2021. Nevertheless, increased levels of irregular migrant arrivals will likely continue in the coming days.
BORDERS: On 21 November, an organiser of the ongoing protest at the Polish-Ukrainian border said Polish hauliers intend to block the Yahodyn-Dorohusk checkpoint until 1 February 2024. The extension could realistically prompt the protests’ organisers to submit applications to prolong protest action at the other two blocked checkpoints: Rava-Ruska-Hrebenne and Krakivets-Korczowa. Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service (DPSU) announced earlier on 23 November that Polish hauliers had begun blocking the Shehyni-Medyka crossing. However, as Polish border guards reported that this partial blockade may only last until 26 November, this will modestly alleviate supply chain pressure amid the ongoing blockade at the remaining blocked crossings.
BORDERS: Slovakia’s road hauliers’ union (UNAS) announced on 23 November that it is attempting to get a response from Hungary’s equivalent union on whether they can co-ordinate a joint border closure between Slovakia and Ukraine, as well as Hungary and Ukraine. UNAS said it is awaiting a statement from the Slovak transport ministry on the situation. Should the partial blockade be expanded in the coming days and weeks, this will highly likely further pressure supply chains into Ukraine, with ongoing disputes between Ukraine and Hungary (see Forecast below) also increasing the likelihood of Hungarian hauliers joining the blockade. For further analysis, see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 22 November 2023.
ECONOMY: On 22 November, Russia’s Federal Council approved the federal budget, increasing spending by around 25% in 2024. Under the new budget, defence spending will reach a record high of 40%, exceeding social expenditures for the first time. The increase reflects Moscow’s commitment to continuing its attritional war with Ukraine, which will sustain ongoing economic challenges such as labour shortages, monetary volatility and inflationary risks, among others. The increase in federal spending will raise concerns over Russia’s ability to fund its budget.
ECONOMY: Unnamed economists quoted by the independent media outlet Meduza claimed that the Kremlin will likely need to raise taxes. This will drive uncertainty for businesses. As a result of its economic isolation, Russia’s exports have steadily decreased over the past 18 months; in September exports decreased by 14.4% compared to September 2022. Given that hydrocarbon exports remain the government’s main source of revenue, growing reliance on oil and gas revenues will increase the country’s vulnerability to market volatility.

FORECAST

AID: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has reportedly threatened to block all EU aid for Ukraine, as well as the country’s ambitions to join the bloc unless EU leaders agree to review their entire strategy of support for Ukraine. Politico claimed on 22 November to have seen Orbán’s letter to European Council President Charles Michel. While the letter is undated, it underscores that Budapest will likely continue to drive internal divisions over the bloc’s policy towards Kyiv in the long term.

Orbán allegedly stated that no further sanctions against Russia can be taken until a ‘strategic discussion’ takes place when leaders meet in Brussels (Belgium) on 14-15 December. The Hungarian PM insisted that the European Council must have a frank and open discussion on the feasibility of the EU’s strategic objectives and review the effectiveness of the bloc’s current policies, including various assistance programmes to Ukraine.

According to Orbán, the bloc should consider whether its strategy is sustainable without robust support from the US, which has been the principal provider of military aid for Ukraine. Recent reports indicate that leaders in the US Congress are aiming to pass supplemental aid bills for Ukraine before the end of the year amid deadlock over the provision of further assistance. As such, Ukraine-sceptic EU member states, such as Hungary, will likely continue to leverage the US’ delayed provision of aid for Ukraine to question (and even oppose) the viability of the bloc offering longer-term assistance for Kyiv. However, there is a realistic possibility that such obstacles in the US will also prompt other EU nations traditionally supportive of long-term support for Kyiv to consider the feasibility of doing so without continued US support in tandem.

A poll from the Associated Press-NORC Centre for Public Affairs Research on 22 November found that nearly half of US citizens (45%) think that their government is spending too much on aid for Ukraine. However, this figure is marginally lower than in October (52%). As expected, Republicans were more likely to believe that Washington DC allocates too much funding for Ukraine (59%), though this figure has decreased by 10% since October. Ultimately, the US presidential elections in November 2024 will likely be a key determining factor for long-term aid for Ukraine; it will also likely be significantly featured in candidates’ electoral campaigns.

22 Nov. 23

BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
DONETSK: On 21 November, Vitaliy Barabash, the head of the Ukrainian Avdiivka military administration, said that Russian troops are increasingly using vehicles during assaults south-east of Avdiivka. According to Barabash, Russia has been relying upon dismounted infantry-led assaults on the flanks of Avdiivka where there is soil, whereas in the south-east there is asphalt suitable for vehicles. Meanwhile, on 21 and 22 November, Russian sources claimed that Russian forces have successfully forced Ukrainian troops to withdraw from Stepove, located five miles (8km) north-west of Avdiivka. While such claims remain visually unconfirmed, a Russian milblogger said on 22 November that the sector is a ‘grey zone’, meaning it remains contested. Over the past few days, Russian forces reiterated claims that Russian troops are progressing towards the Avdiivka Coke Plant north-east of Avdiivka. However, such claims remain unconfirmed.
KHERSON: Russian sources have in recent days reported that their forces defending the left bank of the Dnieper River (Kherson oblast) are taking heavy casualties and lack effective defensive capabilities. An unverified letter published on 21 November allegedly from a Russian soldier operating near Krynky, located 22 miles (36km) north-east of Kherson city, claimed that Russian forces lack reconnaissance drones, effective artillery fire support and suffer from poor or non-existent communications with commanders and supporting units.
KHERSON: A separate video also published on 21 November alleged that Russian commanders are forcing injured personnel to conduct assaults, and that for every single Russian soldier on the Kherson frontline, the Ukrainians are deploying three drones. Many Russian sources have been increasingly concerned about the situation on the left bank, where Ukrainian forces have been continuing to modestly expand their presence in recent days, including pushing south of Krynky into the forested area. Nevertheless, Moscow has ramped up claims that they are inflicting ‘colossal’ casualties on Ukrainian forces. The extent of Ukrainian losses remains unclear.
SOUTHERN: The spokesperson for Ukraine’s Tavriisk group of forces Oleksandr Tarnavskyi reported earlier on 22 November that Russian forces have sharply increased the intensity of assaults and airstrikes along the southern frontline. While he did not provide further detail, the Ukrainian General Staff did report on 21 November that Russian forces have launched unsuccessful assaults against Robotyne and Kamianske, at the extreme north-western section of the Zaporizhzhia frontline, located 22 miles (35km) north-west of Robotyne. We cannot confirm any Russian advances at this time.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: Overnight on 21-22 November, Russia launched two Kh-22 cruise missiles and 14 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences reportedly destroyed all 14 drones. A Kh-22 missile nevertheless hit an open area in Zaporizhzhia oblast; there is currently no information on whether the second missile struck a target.
STRIKES: On 22 November, four sea drones were destroyed near Crimea, according to Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD). The Russian MoD also reported that air defences destroyed three aerial drones over western Crimea. Ukrainian officials have not commented on the attack. However, Kyiv has repeatedly launched attacks, including aerial strikes and maritime drone attacks, against Crimea over the past weeks.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

BORDERS: A Ukrainian analyst on 21 November said the Polish hauliers’ partial blockade of Polish-Ukrainian border crossings has caused shortages of liquified petroleum gas (LPG), causing a 30% spike in domestic prices. The head of Ukraine’s A-95 consulting group, which researches the country’s motor fuel market, Serhiy Kuyun, noted that a third of all LPG supplies were imported through the border with Poland.
BORDERS: Kuyun said traders were trying to move as much of the product as possible via railways and redirect LPG supplies to Slovakian and Romanian crossings. However, he stated that it is difficult to replace the necessary volume quickly. Kuyun said that petrol and diesel remain unaffected as less than 10% of Ukraine’s domestic consumption enters the country through these routes. As such, the ongoing blockade will likely sustain LPG shortages and price fluctuations in the near term until supplies are redirected effectively or the haulier blockades cease. Shortages of fuel will nevertheless increase pressure on businesses ahead of the winter, when Russian forces are expected to begin an intensive strike campaign against energy infrastructure.
BORDERS: Earlier on 22 November, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service (DPSU), Andriy Demchenko, said Slovak truckers temporarily unblocked a crossing at the Slovak-Ukrainian border. Demchenko said 250 trucks crossed through the Vyšné Nemecké-Uzhhorod checkpoint in both directions over the past 24 hours on 21 November, albeit 100 fewer than has been typical during previous days. He said the temporary unblocking came after negotiations with Slovak border guards, though it is unclear how long it will remain unblocked. A representative of Slovakia’s Border and Foreign police unit said on 21 November that truckers had blocked the crossing at 1200hrs (local time) and were allowing a limited number of Ukrainian trucks to pass. However, Slovak media reported that just one truck had blocked the crossing.
NUCLEAR: On 21 November, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that reactor unit 5 of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has started transitioning from hot to cold shutdown. The ZNPP has kept reactor units 4 and 5 on hot shutdown to provide residual power to the plant’s site and the town of Enerhodar (Zaporizhzhia oblast). The cold shutdown decision was taken to identify the cause of boron water leakage from the first circuit of the unit, which was reported on 19 November. The IAEA explained that a cold shutdown is a safe condition for a nuclear reactor when it is deactivated and has low water pressure and temperature. According to the IAEA statement, one of the three 17.4 megawatt diesel boilers located off-site has started operating since 17 November and will provide heating to Enerhodar. For further analysis of the differences between hot and cold shutdown modes (and the key implications) see Sibylline Special Report – Ukraine – 19 July 2023.

FORECAST

EU: On 21 November, Bloomberg reported that the EU has presented member states with a plan to provide Ukraine with lasting security guarantees and commitments. This reportedly includes a framework for the provision of longer-term military support, the training of Ukrainian troops and help to the bolster the country’s defence industry.

The outlet claimed to have seen a draft paper that will be discussed by the bloc’s ambassadors this week and by EU leaders in December. The EU’s framework will also reportedly form the basis of consultations between Ukraine and the G7 countries. G7 member states announced at the NATO summit in Vilnius (Lithuania) in mid-July a framework that paves the way for long-term security guarantees for Kyiv to strengthen its defences and deter Moscow from renewed aggression in the future (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 13 July 2023). According to Bloomberg, the framework aims to build on those arrangements.

The commitments envision a ‘predictable, efficient, sustainable and long-term’ mechanism for the provision of military aid to Ukraine that mobilises Europe’s defence industry. The proposals also include greater co-operation with Ukraine’s defence industry to increase capacity and align standards, among other things. Support for the delivery of weapons would continue to be provided through the European Peace Facility (EPF), which reimburses member states for what equipment they give to Ukraine

However, recent reports indicate that the bloc will likely struggle to reach its target to provide Kyiv a m artillery rounds by the deadline of mid-March. Efforts to bolster Europe’s defence industry will likely be essential for ensuring the feasibility and success of the bloc’s plan (if approved). Some EU member states are reportedly reticent to commit to a separate long-term aid plan worth up to EUR 20 bn (USD 21.4 bn). As such, it remains uncertain whether internal divisions within the bloc will impede the EU’s reported plan for longer-term security commitments.

Meanwhile, on 21 November, European Council President, Charles Michel, insisted that the entry of Ukraine and Moldova into the EU remains a priority for the bloc, despite other security issues in the Middle East. Michel said he would do everything possible to ensure that the Council starts formal accession negotiations in December. EU leaders will hold a summit in Brussels (Belgium) on 14-15 December where they will consider whether to approve the start of the relevant negotiations to join the bloc. On 20 November, the European Parliament also reportedly agreed to open an office in Ukraine to strengthen its support for the Ukrainian parliament at the request of Ukrainian officials. While such developments underscore the bloc’s efforts to increase co-operation with Kyiv and facilitate its accession into the bloc, Ukraine’s EU membership remains an unlikely prospect for the foreseeable future.

21 Nov.

BAKHMUT: The spokesperson for Ukrainian Ground Forces, Volodymyr Fityo, reported on 20 November that Russian forces have gathered ‘appropriate’ reserves around Bakhmut and are proceeding with renewed offensive operations around the town. Additional Ukrainian sources have reported that Russia is now deploying elements of the 98th and 106th VDV Airborne divisions to the area from Lyman further north. VDV units are reportedly primarily fighting north of Bakhmut and are attacking Ukrainian rear areas, while lower quality forces, including the 2nd and 3rd Army Corps, are fighting to the south of the town. Russian forces are seemingly prioritising attacks around Klishchiivka and Andriivka, located about six miles (10km) south-west of Bakhmut, though we cannot confirm any Russian advances at this stage. Nevertheless, various Russian sources reported on 20 November that their forces succeeded in breaking through Ukrainian defences in the area.
DONETSK: Nothing significant to repot
KHERSON: Russian forces also reported earlier on 21 November that Ukraine transferred additional forces across the Dnieper River; these are now reportedly taking up new positions along its left bank. While we cannot confirm this, Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces are expanding their presence near Krynky, located 22 miles (36km) north-east of Kherson city.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Geolocated footage posted on 20 November shows that Russian forces made limited progress in the forested area south of Kreminna (Luhansk oblast). A Russian milblogger claimed on 20 November that Russian forces also progressed across the road between Ivanivka and Kyslivka, both located around 12 miles (20km) east of Kupiansk. However, such claims remain unverified. On 21 November, the Ukrainian Commander of Ground Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated that Russian forces are continuing with offensive operations in the Kupiansk sector, using Storm-Z units manned by convicts. Ukraine’s 14th Mechanised Brigade spokesperson Nadiya Zamryha also noted earlier on 21 November that Russian troops have started deploying infantry, tanks and armoured vehicles near the brigade’s positions. She claimed that while the number of attacks will decrease due to deteriorating weather conditions, Russian forces will keep trying to cross the Oskil River.
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: Overnight on 20-21 November, Russia launched ten Shahed-136/131 drones and one Iskander-K ballistic missile. Ukrainian air defences reportedly intercepted nine of the drones and the missile. Meanwhile, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that air defences shot down three drones over Bryansk, Kursk and Rostov regions (all Russia) earlier on 21 November.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

WAGNER GROUP: On 20 November, an advertisement appeared on Russian social media launching what is likely to be a recruitment drive to attract personnel to a newly formed Russian ‘Africa Corps’ military company. The Russian MoD has been attempting to recruit former Wagner Group personnel for months. However, the creation of a rival ‘Africa Corps’ likely suggests that this effort has enjoyed limited success. Russian sources claim that the MoD decided to create the new corps in Libya following a meeting between MoD officials and Libyan National Army (LNA) Commander Marshal Khalifa Haftar on 22 August. While the formation of a Russian African Corps cannot be confirmed, such a move would reflect the wider trend of the MoD seeking to assume control over legacy Wagner operations across Africa and the Middle East. The creation of such an organisation would underline that Russia has no intention of withdrawing from these regions amid the war in Ukraine.
BLACK SEA: Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey are reportedly close to agreeing on the creation of a joint mine clearance force to tackle mines drifting across the Black Sea. Deputy defence ministers from all three littoral states will reportedly meet in Ankara (Turkey) on 22 November to finalise the details. Notably, the proposed task force will not be designated a NATO mission; Turkey is opposed to an increased NATO naval presence in the Black Sea given its concerns this will drive tensions with Russia. The creation of a mine clearance force would mark an important step towards mitigating the growing threat posed by mines across the region. However, as the war protracts and ships continue to sustain damage from floating mines, the issue will likely remain a long-term threat to commercial shipping for decades.
SANCTIONS: According to a Ukrainian investigation published on 20 November, components for Russian military helicopters from the Czech Republic continue to reach Russia via intermediaries in Asia. The investigation claimed that First Brno Engineering Plant Velka Bites supplied Russia with USD 122 m worth of products (including power units that help helicopters to take off) from 2014 until Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It alleged that Indian and Kazakh companies that purchased the power units have long-standing ties with the Russian military-industrial complex and possibly resold the parts to Russia. A separate investigation on 20 November found that Russian army boot manufacturers imported over USD 4 m worth of materials from EU countries in 2023. However, leather, rubber, shoe soles and other materials necessary for boot manufacturing can still be sold to Russia as they are not categorised by the EU as dual-use goods. Nevertheless, Russia’s ability to circumvent Western sanctions will likely continue despite growing efforts to close such loopholes (which will likely persist in the medium-to-long term).
MOBILISATION: On 20 November, the Ukrainian lawmaker Mariana Bezuhla stated that Ukraine’s parliament (the Verkhovna Rada) is considering amending its law on mobilisation. According to Bezuhla, a member of the ruling Servant of the People party, the amendments seek to clamp down on loopholes allowing draft-eligible men to avoid mobilisation. The proposed amendments include abolishing the deferral of mobilisation for students who are studying a second degree and tightening exemptions for individuals who care for a disabled family member.
MOBILISATION: The proposed changes reportedly authorise the enrolment of individuals who have completed their military service in another country before becoming Ukrainian citizens. Individuals who have been convicted of a criminal offense and are currently in prison will also allegedly be eligible for military service. Although no proposal has been formally submitted, the amendments reflect Kyiv’s growing need for military personnel to sustain the attritional war against Russia.
MOBILISATION: On 20 November, Ukrainian Secretary of National Security Oleksiy Danilov assessed that Russia will possibly launch a ‘total mobilisation’ following the 2024 presidential election in March 2024. Danilov stated that 17 March is a milestone date for the Kremlin and that it will be empowered to order a national call-up after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s almost certain re-election.
MOBILISATION: Our assessment remains that the Kremlin will likely avoid announcing another wave of partial mobilisation ahead of and immediately after the presidential election. Such a decision would likely trigger domestic backlash and potential domestic unrest. While the Kremlin possibly perceives that ordering a round of mobilisation after the elections poses fewer risks for government stability, recent polling indicates that almost 60% of Russians would not support another wave of mobilisation (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 16 November 2023). A decision to call for mobilisation after the elections will therefore still likely be fraught with political risks for the Russian government.

FORECAST

BORDERS: Around 100 Polish farmers plan to stage a three-day protest at the Medyka crossing (Subcarpathian Voivodeship, Poland) on 23 November amid the Polish hauliers’ ongoing partial blockade of three border crossings with Ukraine. The announcement marks the latest expansion of the ongoing haulier protests to include workers from other sectors. Polish media reported on 20 November that the protest action will take place along Poland’s National Road 28 (DK 28) leading to the border crossing. Only service vehicles, passenger vehicles transporting humanitarian aid and coaches will allegedly be allowed to pass. The farmers are reportedly protesting in solidarity with the Polish hauliers, but also to express their own grievances due to falling grain prices and to demand state compensation.

A Ukrainian trade representative, Taras Kachka, stated on 20 November that Kyiv hopes to hold trilateral talks with Warsaw and the European Commission (EC) this week over the ongoing blockade. Kachka stated the restrictions will possibly affect critical supplies of energy resources for Ukraine. He noted that liquified natural gas (LNG) is the most heavily impacted resource, while gasoline and diesel have also been affected (to a lesser extent). In late October, before the start of the protest action, a Ukrainian official stated that most of the Polish hauliers’ demands are impossible to implement. As such, it is unlikely that the partial blockade will be fully resolved in the coming days; this will sustain supply chain and operational risks.

Nov 21.

*Armenia-Russia: Deteriorating relations will increase Moscow-led destabilisation risks. On 20 November, Imangali Tasmagambetov, the Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), claimed that Armenia has requested to withdraw provisions on assistance to Armenia from the coming CSTO summit’s agenda. The summit will take place in Minsk (Belarus) on 23 November. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will not attend the event amid growing tensions with Russia. Notably, Pashinyan has accused Moscow and Russian-led security alliances, such as the CSTO, of failing to ensure Armenia’s security. Meanwhile, on 19 November, Russian sources made unsubstantiated statements, later quoted by Azerbaijani media sources, that Armenia plans to leave the CSTO and supply Ukraine with missiles. The Armenian government denied such claims, but the claims reflect growing Russian discontent with Armenia’s efforts to distance itself from Moscow. The growing perception of anti-Russian action will drive Russian destabilisation risks and result in Moscow likely curtailing its support to Yerevan in peace negotiations with Azerbaijan.

*Belarus: Increased political repression likely ahead of scheduled parliamentary elections. On 20 November, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka signed decrees calling for parliamentary elections to be held in 2024. Elections for the lower house of parliament and the local councils of deputies will be held on 25 February as a single voting day. Meanwhile, elections for Belarus’ upper house of parliament are scheduled for 4 April. The parliamentary elections will be the country’s first election campaign since 2020, when the Belarusian authorities declared that Lukashenka had secured a sixth presidential term after winning 80% of the vote. Subsequently, the Belarusian authorities heavily suppressed mass protests against the contested election. Although the parliamentary elections are highly unlikely to be free or fair, domestic unrest in the capital Minsk and across Belarus is unlikely given the Belarusian authorities’ efforts to crack down on dissent; these efforts will likely intensify ahead of the election dates.

Nov 20.

OFFENSIVES: On 18 November, the UK’s Defence Intelligence (DI) assessed that neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces have made significant progress in the three most intensive areas of ground combat operations over the past week. These areas are Avdiivka (Donetsk oblast), the Oskil-Kreminna axis (Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts) and the left bank of the Dnieper River (Kherson oblast). In line with our own forecast, DI also assessed that with the onset of cold winter weather in eastern Ukraine, the prospects of an immediate, major frontline breakthrough are low. Rainy weather has and will highly likely continue to impede offensive operations, including the deployment of drones and heavy armour, in the coming weeks.
DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 19 November shows that Ukrainian forces advanced near the railway south-east of Stepove, located around two miles (3km) north-west of Avdiivka. A Russian milblogger stated that Ukrainian forces recaptured lost positions in this sector.
DONETSK: Geolocated footage posted on 18 November indicates that Russian forces made limited gains north of Avdiivka’s coke plant and in the industrial area in the town’s south-eastern outskirts. On 19 and 20 November, Russian sources claimed that Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian defences in the industrial area in Avdiivka’s south-eastern outskirts, and that heavy fighting is ongoing.
DONETSK: On 18 November, Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun stated that Ukrainian forces are expecting a new Russian offensive in the Avdiivka sector. Shtupun explained that Russia’s use of heavy equipment has decreased over the past two days. According to the official, Russian forces will possibly intensify artillery strikes in preparation for an offensive. On 19 November, he also noted that the number of Russian deserters and personnel refusing to fight is increasing. This has caused the Russian command to use barrier troops to force Russian troops to fight; offensive operations are therefore likely to continue in this sector.
BAKHMUT: Ukrainian and Russian forces’ counter-offensive and offensive operations near Bakhmut have continued on trend over the past 72 hours. Geolocated footage posted on 17 November indicates that Ukrainian forces likely advanced south-east of Pivdenne, located around 14 miles (24km) south-west of Bakhmut. Russian milbloggers have continued to report that Russian forces are expanding their territorial control in ongoing fighting near Klishchiivka, located four miles (6km) south-west of Bakhmut, though we cannot confirm this. One such milblogger acknowledged on 20 November that the Ukrainian armed forces continue to control the heights near Klishchiivka. A Ukrainian reserve officer reported on 19 November that Russian forces are attempting to improve their tactical position near Kurdyumivka, located around six miles (10km) south-west of Bakhmut. However, there were reportedly no signs of a large-scale operation.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: Overnight on 17-18 November, Russia conducted a large-scale drone strike campaign that included 38 Shahed-136/131 drones launched in several waves. Ukrainian forces reportedly intercepted 28 drones. Air defences allegedly destroyed all projectiles over the capital Kyiv. The Ukrainian authorities nevertheless confirmed that the strike damaged energy infrastructure, an administrative building in Odesa oblast and infrastructure facilities in Chernihiv oblast. Early on 19 November, Russian forces launched a second consecutive drone strike, including 20 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences reportedly shot down 15 projectiles. Kyiv was targeted for a second time. All the drones targeting the capital were intercepted. Air defences were also active in Poltava and Cherkasy oblasts. While the Ukrainian authorities did not report any critical damage, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that its forces struck ammunition depots in Kirovohrad City (Kirovohrad oblast) and Olshanytsya (Kyiv oblast) as well as a fuel storage facility at the Kanatove airfield (Kirovohrad).
STRIKES: Russia’s MoD reported that its air defences intercepted a drone over Elektrostal (Moscow oblast, Russia) on 19 November. Another drone was reportedly intercepted over Bryansk oblast on 18 November.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

GRAIN: On 19 November, Ukrainian media reported that Ukraine’s Danube riverine ports (Izmail, Reni and Ust-Dunaisk) have more than doubled their cargo handling compared to the same period last year. The chairman of the administration of Ukraine’s sea ports (AMPU), Yuriy Lytvyn, revealed that these ports increased cargo handling from 12.6 m tonnes to 27.6 m tonnes between January and October. Lytvyn stated that of the 40.2 m tonnes of cargo handled in January-October, 18.3 m tonnes were grain, 3.6 m tonnes were ore, 3.2 m tonnes were oil and 2.6 m tonnes were oil products.
GRAIN: The figures reflect Ukraine’s increased usage of its riverine ports to export goods following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) in July and de-facto blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. However, Russian strikes against Ukraine’s Danube River ports are highly likely to continue to undermine Ukraine’s ability to export its products in the coming months, particularly grain. Lytvyn stated on 17 November that 115 vessels have used the temporary maritime corridor from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdennyi since August.
GRAIN: On 16 November, a Liberia-flagged merchant ship transporting grain was slightly damaged off the coast of Ukraine when sailing from Pivdennyi. An unspecified Ukrainian government source familiar with the matter said that it was likely hit by a floating sea mine, underscoring the ongoing threat posed by sea mines to maritime traffic in the north-west Black Sea.
BORDERS: On 20 November, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov refuted Finland’s accusations that Russian border guards are encouraging asylum seekers to cross the Finnish border. On 18 November, Finland closed four border crossings with Russia following an uptick in the number of asylum seekers arriving at the country’s border, allegedly directed by Russia. The Finnish authorities said that the increase was co-ordinated by Russia, likely in response to a defence co-operation agreement with the US that would give the US military access to select Finnish bases. Helsinki’s recent NATO membership will sustain tensions with Russia, with which it shares an 833-mile (1,340km) border.
AID: International media reported on 19 November that US Congressional leaders are aiming to pass supplemental aid bills for Ukraine and Israel before the end of the year. NBC reported that four unspecified Senate sources directly connected to the negotiations said that the window between Thanksgiving and Christmas is crucial. Republicans and Democrats are allegedly concerned that the possibility of passing legislation that addresses all elements of US President Joe Biden’s request will reduce dramatically if no solution is found by the end of the year. This includes supplemental aid for Ukraine, Israel, the Indo-Pacific and to enhance border security.

FORECAST

BORDERS: The Ukrainian authorities stated on 19 November that an ongoing truck protest has left around 3,000 trucks, mostly from Ukraine (including those carrying fuel and humanitarian aid), stuck on the Polish side of the border. The protest’s organisers previously stated that trucks carrying ‘volatile substances’, humanitarian aid and equipment for Ukraine’s army would be exempt from the partial blockade.

Ukraine’s infrastructure minister, Oleksandr Kubrakov, said the trucks were backed up more than 18.6 miles (30km) towards the Yahodyn-Dorohusk crossing, more than six miles (10km) towards Rava-Ruska-Hrebenne and almost ten miles (16km) towards the Krakivets-Korczowa crossing. Supply chain and operational risks are highly likely to continue in the coming days and weeks. While it cannot be confirmed whether fuel and humanitarian aid shipments have been impeded, such reports indicate that there is a realistic possibility that these deliveries will be affected by the ongoing blockade.

Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service (DPSU) announced earlier on 20 November that operations at the Medyka-Shehyni checkpoint have been temporarily halted due to a lack of electricity on the Polish side. The DPSU stated the passage of persons and vehicles leaving Ukraine into Poland was temporarily suspended as a result, but did not specify when the crossing would be functional. Earlier on 20 November, Polish media reported that protesters will possibly block this crossing on 23 or 24 November. If (or when) a partial blockade takes place at this crossing in the coming days, four others (half of the border crossings along the Polish-Ukrainian frontier) will possibly be blocked off, causing significant supply chain and transport disruption.

*Belgium: Lockbit ransomware attack on Ukraine jet supplier highlights cyber risk amid aid efforts . On 18 November, the Russian-linked ‘Lockbit’ ransomware gang claimed responsibility for an attack on Belgian aerospace firm Sabena Engineering, a supplier of Ukraine’s F-16 fleet. Sabena, which provides technical support for F-16 deliveries to Ukraine from Belgium and its allies, is facing the risk of having its stolen data leaked by Lockbit on 26 November unless a ransom payment is made. The cyberattack follows Lockbit’s disruption of Royal Mail in January 2023 and a claimed hack of Boeing. While Lockbit’s origins remain unclear, the gang offers services to other criminals. The targeting of a high-profile Belgian aerospace company highlights the risk of sensitive data theft and extortion, potentially affecting Ukraine’s fleet readiness if the attack disrupts parts and technical support. The incident underscores the sophistication of ransomware gangs in targeting critical infrastructure and sensitive industries. Given the numerous infection vectors and pressure tactics involved, it is likely that further ransomware attacks will persist, posing an ongoing risk to military aid efforts amid the conflict in Ukraine and sustaining security risks for suppliers. (Source: Sibylline)

25 Nov 23. Swiss president pledges more support for Ukraine in Kyiv visit. Swiss President Alain Berset pledged his long-term support for Ukraine on Saturday in a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart in Kyiv, where he also attended an international summit on food security, the Swiss government said.
Ukraine is hosting an international summit to promote its efforts to export grain despite an ongoing Russian blockade of the Black Sea, its main export route.
“In talks with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, President Berset stressed that Switzerland stands in solidarity with Ukraine for the long haul, even in times of multiple concurrent crises,” the Swiss government said. Zelenskiy said on X that mine clearing, peace proposals and the use of profits from frozen Russian assets were also discussed.
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Switzerland has previously said it has frozen some 7.5 billion Swiss francs ($8.5 billion) in Russian assets.
During the trip Berset also visited Bucha where many civilians were killed in the early stages of the war and laid flowers at a memorial in Kyiv for the Soviet-era Holodomor, when millions of Ukrainian peasants starved to death.
Berset also said Switzerland would provide additional aid to the country, supplying 10 more ambulances and six fire engines to replace damaged ones.
Switzerland, which has the principle of neutrality embedded in its constitution, has nevertheless imposed sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and joined an international call for a special tribunal to address Russia’s crime of “aggression” against Ukraine. It says there is no contradiction as the legal definition of neutrality means not favouring any warring party militarily.
($1 = 0.8855 Swiss francs) (Source: Reuters)

25 Nov 23. Ukraine needs more air defences to protect grain exports – Zelenskiy. Ukraine needs more air defences to protect its grain export routes as well regions bordering Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday, as he addressed an international summit on food security in Kyiv.
“There is a deficit of air defence – that is no secret,” Zelenskiy told the Grain from Ukraine summit, which was attended by senior officials from European countries, including Swiss President Alain Berset and Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte.
Zelenskiy was speaking after Russia attacked Ukraine with 75 drones overnight, the biggest drone assault of the war. The joint press conference of the three leaders was cut short by another air raid siren.
Zelenskiy said Ukraine would be supplied by its foreign partners with vessels to accompany convoys of cargo ships from Ukraine’s ports to guarantee their security.
“I have agreements with several countries about powerful accompaniment of convoys by Ukrainians, but using (foreign) equipment,” he said.
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The Ukrainian president also said Kyiv hoped to solve its air defence shortage through new supplies from partners and increasing its own production capacity, something on which he said there had been progress.
“As of today, I can’t say details what we are making and where, but there is progress,” he said.
Ukraine, a major exporter of grain, has been exporting grain via unilateral corridors through the Black sea, after Russia withdrew in July from a UN-brokered deal to allow grain ships through its blockade.
Ukraine’s current Black sea grain export corridors all start from ports in Ukraine’s southern region of Odesa.
“There are certain air defence systems… we are asking for them,” Zelenskiy said. “We’ve already got an answer when those systems will start to guard that region. Because there, both the corridor and the people are important.”
Asked about the protests by Polish and Slovak truckers which have blocked much of Ukraine’s road-based cargo supply in recent days, Zelenskiy blamed the problem on the internal politics of those countries.
“I believe that there are difficulties on the border first and foremost because of certain political steps by our neighbours,” he told a press conference after the summit.
Zelenskiy said he was confident the issue would be solved if Ukraine’s neighbours were given “a bit of time” to deal with the dispute. (Source: Reuters)

24 Nov 23. Germany and US ‘will pressure Zelensky to negotiate with Russia.’ German tabloid reports ‘secret’ plan to force Ukraine’s hand on opening peace talks by scaling back weapons deliveries.
Germany and the US will put pressure on Ukraine to negotiate with Russia by scaling back weapons deliveries in what would be a major blow to Kyiv’s hopes of victory, German media reported on Friday.
Bild, a German tabloid, reported what it described as a “secret” German-American plan to force Ukraine’s hand on opening peace talks, citing sources in the German government.
Under the plan, Washington and Berlin would supply Ukraine with sufficient weapons and armour to hold the current front line, but not enough to retake occupied territory.
They hope to push Volodymr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, towards the negotiating table with Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader.
“Zelensky should realise that it can’t go on like this,” a German government source told Bild, referring to Ukraine’s stalled counter-offensive against Russian in the east. “He needs to, of his own free will, turn to face his nation and explain that there is a need to negotiate.”
German government sources also told Bild that the White House shared Germany’s view on the need to shift the focus from weapons deliveries to negotiations.
There was no response to the report from the White House as of Friday night. Washington has repeatedly vowed to support Ukraine’s efforts to expel Russian troops.
Bild noted that, as the largest providers of armour and defence to Ukrainian forces, a request from Germany and the US would have to be taken seriously by Mr Zelensky.
Germany’s government did not immediately respond to the Bild report, which will frustrate officials in Kyiv as they continue to strive for a full military victory over Russia, including the recapture of occupied territory.
Bild also suggested that there is a rift in the German government between Olaf Scholz, the chancellor, and Boris Pistorius, his defence minister. The latter played no part in drawing up the plan to give Ukraine “just enough [arms] not to go under” and would even support delivering powerful Taurus missiles to Ukraine, sources said.
“Since Scholz took office, the defence ministry has been under the thumb of the federal chancellor’s office. Many decisions are made there,” an anonymous defence official told Bild, in what seemed to be an attempt to distance the minister from the alleged German-American plan.
The Telegraph understands, that beyond Germany, there are concerns in Nato nations that Ukraine’s counter-offensive was “over-hyped” and that there is a desire to manage future expectations about the next stage of the war.
Mr Scholz’s rival CDU party also reacted with alarm to the plan, which it said was evidence that the chancellor had no intention of helping Ukraine to win the war, even though it is an existential conflict.
“It becomes ever more clear that the chancellor does not believe in a Ukrainian victory and does not want one at all,” said Roderich Kiesewetter, a CDU Bundestag member.
(Source: Daily Telegraph)

25 Nov 23. Russia launched its largest drone attack of the war in the early hours of Saturday morning, targeting Kyiv in what Ukrainian officials fear is the start of a winter campaign aimed at destroying the country’s energy infrastructure. Kyiv city authorities said five people were wounded while Ukraine’s energy ministry reported nearly 200 buildings, including 77 residential ones, were left without power as a result of the barrage. Saturday’s attack began about 2.30am local time and lasted more than six hours, with Iranian-made Shahed kamikaze drones coming in waves and changing course during flight to confuse and evade defences, according to Ukraine’s air force. Many of Kyiv’s more than 3mn residents awoke to wailing air raid sirens and push alerts on their phones urging them to seek shelter. The buzzing of the low-flying drones and staccato bark of air defence guns shooting at them was punctuated by loud explosions shortly before sunrise. The air force reported downing 74 of 75 drones in the regions of Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad and Kyiv. Yuriy Ihnat, an air force spokesperson, said that 66 drones were downed over the capital and the surrounding region. He added that waves of drones launched from the south-east “circled” Kyiv as they waited for drones that took off from the western Russian city of Kursk to approach the capital and attack it simultaneously. A Kh-59 cruise missile was also destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk region, said Mykola Oleschuk, the commander of the Ukrainian an air force. He said that Ukraine’s “mobile fire” air defence forces, typically consisting of western-supplied ground-to-air missile systems mounted on US Humvees or pick-up trucks accounted for “almost 40 per cent” of the missiles and drones shot down. Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv, said that debris from downed drones had crashed in several neighbourhoods, causing multiple fires, including a blaze at a high-rise apartment building and another at a kindergarten. He said five people, including an 11-year-old child, had been injured. Russia’s war economy leaves businesses starved of labour President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “The leadership of Russia is proud of the fact that it can kill,” calling the attack and its timing “conscious terror”. Earlier this month he warned Ukrainians that “Russia is prepared for winter.” “We . . . must be prepared for the fact that the enemy may increase the number of drone or missile strikes on our infrastructure.” Russia has mostly targeted Ukraine’s ports and grain-exporting infrastructure in southern Odesa region with large-scale missile and drones attacks this year. But it began targeting Kyiv in recent weeks, as temperatures dropped and the first snow fell over the capital. Anticipating the bombardments and attempting to stave off the rolling blackouts they caused last winter, Ukrainian authorities have erected barriers of concrete blocks and cages filled with rocks and sand around critical infrastructure. Ukraine is also relying on western-supplied air defence systems to protect the capital and its essential facilities. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told the Financial Times this month that Ukraine was far better prepared for Russia’s air attacks than last winter. “As temperatures drop below zero in Ukraine, Russia cynically sends waves of Iranian drones to attack the capital and the country,” US Ambassador Bridget Brink wrote of Saturday’s attack on social media platform X. (Source: FT.com)

23 Nov 23. Counter-offensive has not failed, EU insists. Ukraine’s counter-offensive has not failed, one of the European Union’s most senior leaders has insisted.

European Council president Charles Michel said Ukraine’s Black Sea navy and its recently established bridgehead over the Dnipro river had achieved successes.

“I don’t think this counteroffensive had failed,” he said in an interview with the Kyiv Independent.

“Firstly, how the Ukrainian Army made huge progress in the Black Sea is extremely important. This is a major step in the right direction.

“Secondly, the recent progress made on the left side of the Dnipro River is also very important.”

Concerns have grown in recent months about Western allies’ commitment to funding Ukraine’s defence amid a faltering counter-offensive that has not shifted the frontlines as much as had been hoped. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

22 Nov 23. US Defense Secretary urges Ukraine Contact Group to supply air defence. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin urged enhanced air defence for Ukraine at a Contact Group meeting to focus on capability coalition.

In opening remarks to the Ukraine Contact Group on 22 November, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin urged the member nations to supply Ukraine with air defence systems ahead of a day of discussions on a ‘capability coalition’ on ground-based air defence systems.

Russia’s use of land attack cruise missiles in Ukraine is spurring the desire to improve Ukraine’s air defences. Kyiv has been using Soviet-era long-range S-300 systems and medium-range 9K37 Buk to intercept Russian threats, but has struggled to replenish its supplies, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, although at a meeting of the Ukrainian Defence Contact Group several nations reported the delivery of hundreds of Soviet-era missiles.

The US is working on integrating Raytheon’ AIM-7 Sparrow and RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles into the Buk system, but no equivalent exists for the S-300.

Capability coalitions have already been instrumental in the provision of F-16 jets to Ukraine, and for improving Ukraine’s information technology capabilities. The F-16 coalition saw 11 nations sign a memorandum to train Ukrainian pilots in the multirole fighter jet, followed by the participation of Greece, the US and Bulgaria.

Austin thanked members France and Germany for holding the first virtual discussions of the air defence coalition this week.

European nations are split on the choice of air defences to employ in the region’s own European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), with Germany, the leader of the initiative, favouring the purchase of the Arrow 3 missile for Israel Aerospace Industries, while France seeks to improve European strategic autonomy with the purchase of a system from the French arm of MBDA. France, along with Poland, Italy and Spain, have so far not made any decision on joining the ESSI.

Germany and nine other nations signed agreements with Israel for the purchase of air defence systems for the ESSI on 11 October, including the Arrow-3 from Israel, and the IRIS-T and Patriot Systems, to provide a layered system of air defence.

Patriot missiles have been effective in Ukraine at engaging with Russia’s hypersonic Kinzhal aero-ballistic missiles; however, such success come at the cost of a high number of interceptors. (Source: army-technology.com)

22 Nov 23. Ukraine welcomes Western allies’ air defence coalition. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his defence minister welcomed the formation by Ukraine’s Western allies on Thursday of a 20-nation “coalition” to boost air defences, seen as a key element in the country’s campaign against Russian forces.

Zelenskiy said the group, one of several devoted to specific areas of Ukraine’s defence, was formed at a virtual meeting of the “Ramstein group” examining Ukraine’s military needs.

Germany’s Defence Ministry had earlier announced the formation of the group in a posting on X, formerly Twitter, with Germany and France taking on leading roles.

“Thanks to every country participating in these efforts for enabling our cities and villages to be better protected against Russian attacks,” Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.

“Not everything can be disclosed publicly at this time, but the Ukrainian air shield is becoming stronger every month.”

Defence Minister Rustem Umerov also noted other assistance agreed by participants, including a German air defence package announced this week during a visit to Kyiv by Defence Minister Boris Pistorius. Also noted were a Dutch package and Estonian financing for help with information technology.

Ukraine’s military commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhniy, said on Telegram that he had taken part in the meeting for the first time, describing the situation along the 1,000-km (600-mile) front as “complicated but controllable”.

Zelenskiy has long pointed to improved air defence as a key element to help keep Ukrainian cities safe from Russian air strikes – including on energy infrastructure – as wintry weather takes hold.

At different points in the war, about to extend into its 21st month, Russia has launched attacks on Ukrainian power stations and other infrastructure. Missile and drone strikes have also hit apartment blocks and other civilian sites, though Russia denies targeting civilians.

(Source: Reuters)

22 Nov 23. Austin Kicks Off Meeting on Ukraine Defense. The U.S.-led international coalition that has rallied behind Ukraine remains undeterred as Russia continues its war of aggression, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said today as he convened a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.

Collectively, the countries that comprise the group have committed more than $80bn in security assistance to Ukraine since Russia launched its unprovoked invasion and will remain steadfast in their support “for as long as it takes,” Austin said.

“We’re focused on supporting Ukraine as it continues its fight through the winter to defend its critical infrastructure,” he said as he kicked off the 17th meeting of the UCDG virtually from the Pentagon.

Spotlight: Support for Ukraine

“Through this extraordinary group of some 50 countries, we remind the world of our shared commitment to support Ukraine today and for the long haul,” he said.

Austin further underscored the imperative for allies and partners to continue to stand behind Ukraine.

“None of us want to live in a world where bullies like Putin can invade their peaceful neighbor with impunity,” he said. “We refuse to let the shape of global security be dictated by autocrats who rely on repression by force at home and coercion abroad.”

That imperative has become more pronounced, the secretary said, as terrorist groups and belligerent dictators seek to upend the rules-based international order elsewhere around the globe.

“Both Ukraine and Israel are facing relentless foes who are out to annihilate them,” Austin said. “And we see that Iran is fueling conflict in both Gaza and Ukraine by arming Hamas and Putin.”

“This is a moment of global challenge,” he added. “But make no mistake, the United States is fully capable of continuing our strong support for Ukraine, even as we stand with Israel in its hour of need.”

Today’s meeting of the UDCG comes days after Austin met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov during an unannounced visit to Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv.

The leaders discussed Ukraine’s current operations and near-term and midterm goals and objectives, Austin told reporters following the talks.

He added that the discussions were an opportunity for the leaders to refocus and ensure that to maintain alignment between the ongoing operations and objectives on the battlefield.

While in Kyiv, he announced a new security assistance package for Ukraine valued at up to $100 m.

The package includes additional air defense capabilities, artillery ammunition, antitank weapons and other materials to help Ukrainian forces defend their territory amid Russia’s ongoing assault.

It marks the 51st drawdown of U.S. inventory for Ukraine since August 2021. The U.S. has provided $44.2bn in security assistance to Ukraine since the start of the war.

Austin said today that the broader coalition of countries backing Ukraine would discuss how to further meet Ukraine’s immediate requirements on the battlefield at today’s meeting.

“Putin stands alone, but we stand together,” he said. “And we will continue to support the forces of freedom in Ukraine.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

22 Nov 23. Switzerland Finally Authorizes Export of 25 Leopard 2A4 Tanks to Germany. Federal Council Authorizes Export of 25 Main Battle Tanks to Germany. On November 22, 2023, the Federal Council approved the request for the export of 25 Type 87 (Leopard 2A4) battle tanks to Germany by reselling them to the company that manufactured them, Rheinmetall Landsysteme GmbH. Berlin has assured Switzerland that the tanks will remain in Germany or in NATO or EU member countries, and will be used to supplement their inventories.

By letter dated February 23, 2023, the German Minister of the Economy, Robert Habeck, and the German Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius, asked Switzerland to resell part of its decommissioned Type 87 / Leopard 2A4 tanks to the German company that manufactured them (Rheinmetall). In their letter, they assured that the tanks will not be transferred to Ukraine and that they will remain in Germany or in NATO or EU member countries.

Decommissioning decided by Parliament

The army currently uses 134 Type 87 (Leopard 2A4 WE) tanks, which were modernized as part of the 2006 Armament Program. In addition, it has another 96 tanks of the same type which have not been modernized, and which are not in use.

As part of the message on the army, the Council of States adopted, on September 26, 2023, the federal decree of the Federal Council on the 2023 arms program in the version approved by the National Council on June 14, and approved the decommissioning of 25 Type 87 (Leopard 2A4) battle tanks on the condition that they be resold to the company that manufactured them. Following this decision and in accordance with the provisions of the Federal War Materials Act (LFMG), armasuisse submitted an export application for these 25 tanks to SECO on October 12, 2023.

Tanks are not intended for Ukraine

The export of tanks to Germany complies with the authorization criteria provided by the LFMG. A point which weighed heavily in the decision, Berlin assured Switzerland that the tanks will remain in Germany or in NATO or EU member countries and will be used to supplement their armament.

(defense-aerospace EDITOR’S NOTE: While these tanks will not be exported to Ukraine, once refurbished by Rheinmetall they will be sold or otherwise supplied to replace those that other countries may supply to Ukraine.) (Unofficial translation by Defense-Aerospace.com) (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Swiss Federal Council; issued Nov. 22, 2023)

22 Nov 23. Australian forces to prepare second cohort of Ukrainian troops. Ukrainian recruits undergo advanced combat training in the UK from Australia’s contingent at Operation Interflex, Operation Kundu.

Australian personnel are preparing to induct the second cohort of “citizen-soldiers” as a part of Operation Kundu, the Australian Ministry of Defence announced on 21 November, signalling an ongoing commitment to opposing the Russian invasion and providing skills to make the trainees from Ukraine battle-ready.

Nearly two years on from the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, 30,000 Ukrainian troops have so far been trained in the south of England by a multi-nation force led by the UK, known as Operation Interflex, that began in June 2022. Australia, New Zealand and Canada agreed to send contingents to support the effort in August, and were later joined by Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Norway and Sweden.

Major John Moulton, Commander of the Australian contingent, emphasised the significance of the training for the rapid conversion of recruits into combat-ready soldiers. He highlighted the urgency of their mission, given the existential threat facing Ukraine, and the commitment of the trainees to defend their democracy and restore peace.

The training encompasses a broad spectrum of military skills, starting from basic infantry tactics to more complex procedures like urban and trench warfare, combat casualty care and handling explosive ordnance. The Australian trainers, primarily drawn from Darwin, bring their experience to the forefront, teaching skills vital for survival and success on the battlefield.

One Australian Army trainer underscored the diverse backgrounds of the Ukrainian recruits, ranging from students to tradespeople, all united by the need to defend their country. The training begins with fundamental aspects such as configuring body armour and progresses to advanced infantry skills including building clearance and tactical movements.

Ukrainians train as part of Operation Interflex

During an on-site visit to Operation Interflex by Army Technology in November 2022, Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) personnel were observed engaged in intense simulated urban combat exercises, as part of their training in southern England. The training site offered a realistic setting for preparing these soldiers for the harsh realities of war, with a simulated battlefield environment complete with blank ammunition, smoke effects, and audio recordings of injured soldiers and civilians to create a disturbingly immersive experience. They practiced urban warfare techniques, moving through buildings and clearing rooms, with the assistance of military trainers and translators.

The training also featured a reproduction of a Russian trench system, similar to those encountered in eastern Ukraine, where AFU soldiers practiced assaulting enemy positions. The use of civilian amputees to simulate battlefield casualties added a stark realism to the exercises, providing the recruits with essential first aid skills crucial for survival.

Upon completing their training, the recruits were equipped with essential gear including combat clothing, body armour, ear defences, waterproofs and sleeping bags. The provision of heavy-duty sleeping bags, roll mats and heated accommodation aims to safeguard against cold-related injuries, ensuring the troops can operate effectively in harsh conditions. (Source: army-technology.com)

22 Nov 23. Iran Unveils Jet-Powered Kamikaze Drone. Iran showcased an advanced version of Shahed-136 strike drones, equipped with a jet engine and improved guidance systems, named Shahed-238. The unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was presented at the Ashura Aerospace University on November 20th. The jet-powered drone was introduced in three variants with different guidance systems. The standard model includes an autonomous guidance system with GPS integration. A second version features an infrared/optical guidance system, allowing these UAVs to be used against heat-contrast targets such as military equipment. Another variant of the Shahed-238 is believed to possess a radar guidance system. Such a drone could target radar installations based on their EM emissions, potentially blinding enemy air defense networks. Experts highlight that the drones are painted an unusual black color, which could be related to the use of radio-absorbing materials. The technical specifications of the Shahed-238 remain undisclosed. Analysts believe that the jet engine could provide the UAV with high speed, but this might reduce its flight range. A source from Ukrainian intelligence agencies informed NV in October that the Russian army could be receiving about 300 units of Shahed-136 kamikaze drones monthly, some of which are manufactured in Iran. (Source: UAS VISION/The New Voice of Ukraine)

21 Nov 23. Berlin announces new military aid package for Ukraine worth 1.3bn euros. Germany will support Ukraine with another military aid package worth 1.3bn euros ($1.42bn) that will include four additional IRIS-T air defence units, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said in Kyiv on Tuesday. So far, Berlin has pledged to supply Kyiv with eight IRIS-T systems, three of which have been delivered. Ukraine uses them mainly to guard against Russian missile attacks.

The support package will also comprise 20,000 155mm artillery shells as well as anti-tank mines, Pistorius told reporters, speaking alongside his Ukrainian counterpart Rustem Umerov.

“I am sure this will help you in your fight against the Russian aggression,” he said. “This underlines that we stand with Ukraine sustainably and reliably.” The artillery shells come on top of 140,000 155mm rounds Germany has pledged to deliver next year, Pistorius noted. ($1 = 0.9168 euros) (Source: Reuters)

22 Nov 23. Russia says three Ukrainian drones destroyed over Crimea. Russian anti-aircraft units destroyed three Ukrainian drones over the Crimean peninsula, the Russian defence ministry said.

“An attempt by the Kyiv regime to carry out a terrorist attack with aircraft-type UAVs on objects on the territory of the Russian Federation was prevented,” the defence ministry said.

“Three Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed over the territory of the Republic of Crimea by air defences,” the ministry said.

Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Ukraine says it will not rest until every last Russian soldier is ejected from its territory. Russia says Crimea is now part of Russia. (Source: Reuters)

20 Nov 23. Austin Reaffirms U.S. Support During Ukraine Visit. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III underscored the United States’ steadfast support for Ukraine as it defends itself from Russian aggression during talks with senior leaders in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, today.

Austin met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov during an unannounced visit to the country.

The leaders discussed Ukraine’s current operations and near-term and midterm goals and objectives, Austin told reporters following the talks.

“I wanted to reassure the leadership that the United States of America will continue to support Ukraine,” he said. “We talked about the things that we’re going to continue to do to make sure they have what they need to be successful on the battlefield.”

He added that the discussions were an opportunity for the leaders to refocus and ensure that to maintain alignment between the ongoing operations and objectives on the battlefield.

Austin’s visit marks his third to Ukraine as defense secretary and second since Russia’s invasion.

While in Kyiv, he announced a new security assistance package for Ukraine valued at up to $100m.

The package includes additional air defense capabilities, artillery ammunition, antitank weapons and other materials to help Ukrainian forces defend their territory amid Russia’s ongoing assault.

It marks the 51st drawdown of U.S. inventory for Ukraine since August 2021. The U.S. has provided $44.2bn in security assistance to Ukraine since the start of the war.

Austin also underscored the continued support from the U.S.-led group of nearly 50 countries known as the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group, which has rallied in support of Ukraine.

The international coalition has provided about $36 bn in security assistance to Ukraine, further enabling Ukrainian forces to defend their nation’s sovereignty and regain more than half of the territory seized by Russian invaders.

“That group has roared into action, and we have continued to work together to provide much needed security assistance in the form of , other artillery platforms, tanks munitions,” Austin said. “And so, really good work on the part of our allies.”

Austin will host the 17th meeting of the Ukranian Defense Contact Group later this week.

Austin’s visit comes as Congress takes up President Joe Biden’s request for supplemental funding to continue to support Ukraine.

While Congress continues to work through the request, Austin said he is confident there is bipartisan support for Ukraine in both chambers of Congress.

“I know that there are some things that we need to continue to work through to get the supplemental request approved,” he said. “And we’ll continue to work with Congress to do that.”

The secretary added that continued support for Ukraine is imperative.

“What happens here matters not just to Ukraine, but to the entire world,” Austin said. “This is about the rules-based international order. This is about … not living in a world where a dictator can wake up one day and decide to annex the property of his peaceful neighbor. That’s not the world we want to live in.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

20 Nov 23. Russia may return Soviet-era ISTAR aircraft to service, UK MoD. Russia may be about to return to service its Soviet Union-era Myasishchev M-55 ‘Mystic-B’ high-altitude aircraft as it looks to fill an intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance (ISTAR) capability gap, the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) has ascertained. The UK MoD said in its Defence Intelligence update on Ukraine on 19 November that “Russia is likely considering bringing the M-55 aircraft back into service”, noting “a critical flaw in Russian procurement strategy has been its failure to establish an adequate ISTAR capability. This is critical for the timely and accurate prosecution of targets by air, sea, and ground forces”. For the MoD, ‘likely’ represents a 55–75% probability. (Source: Janes)

21 Nov 23. Russia says it scuppers more Ukrainian attempts to cross the Dnipro. Russia said on Tuesday that marines, aviation and artillery had scuppered more Ukrainian attempts to gain a foothold on the eastern bank of the River Dnipro and on islands at the mouth of the river in southern Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022, triggering a major European land war and the most serious confrontation between Russia and the West since the depths of the Cold War.

Ukraine said this month that its forces had crossed the Dnipro and established several bridgeheads on the eastern banks of the river, though Russia said it was pummelling the Ukrainian positions.

“Black Sea Fleet marines are stopping all attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to carry out amphibious landings on the Dnipro islands and the left bank of the Dnipro River,” Russia’s defence ministry said.

The Russian defence ministry published a video which it said showed marines from the 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade defeating Ukrainian forces. Soldiers were shown firing a variety of weapons, though the result of the fighting was unclear. It said Ukrainian forces were suffering heavy casualties and losing equipment in unsuccessful attempts to land on islands in the Dnipro. Reuters was unable to immediately verify battlefield accounts from either side. (Source: U.S. DoD)

20 Nov 23. Biden Administration Announces New Security Assistance for Ukraine. Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration’s fifty-first tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This package includes additional air defense capabilities, artillery ammunition, anti-tank weapons, and other equipment to help Ukraine defend its sovereign territory and fight for its freedom from Russia’s ongoing war of aggression.

This package utilizes assistance previously authorized for Ukraine during prior fiscal years under Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) that remained after the PDA revaluation process.

The capabilities in this package, valued at up to $100 m, include:

Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
One High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and additional ammunition;
155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
More than 3 m rounds of small arms ammunition;
Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing;
Cold weather gear; and
Spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.

The United States remains committed to working with the coalition the United States has built of some 50 Allies and partners who are providing Ukraine with the capabilities it needs to defend itself now and deter Russian aggression well into the future. Our allies and partners have stepped up to provide approximately $36 bn in security assistance to Ukraine. Under the leadership of the United States, this global coalition has enabled Ukraine’s courageous forces to successfully defend Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence, win critical battles that repelled Russian forces, and take back more than half of the territory seized by Russian invaders.

Security assistance for Ukraine is a smart investment in our national security. It helps to prevent a larger conflict in the region and deter potential aggression elsewhere, while strengthening our defense industrial base and creating highly skilled jobs for the American people in dozens of states across the country. It is critical that Congress take action to support Ukraine by passing the President’s supplemental funding request. (Source: U.S. DoD)

It is still unclear how significant the Ukrainian attempt to gain a foothold on the eastern bank of the Dnipro is. Crossing the Dnipro leaves Ukrainian units exposed between river and marshland on one side and heavily fortified Russian lines on the other.

Along with Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, Russia now controls 17.5% of Ukraine’s internationally recognised territory. A Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed to make any significant gains this year against Russian forces.

According to unverified reports by pro-Russian bloggers, Russia has been harrying Ukrainian forces near the village Krynky, near marshes on the eastern bank upriver from Kherson, from which Russia withdrew its forces in autumn 2022. (Source: Reuters)

16 Nov 23. Ukraine deploying indigenously developed SIGINT system. Ukraine has developed and is deploying a signals intelligence (SIGINT) system on the frontline called Eter, the Ukrainian Minister for igital ransformation, Mykhailo Fedorov said on 14 November.

Eter is a radio-electronic intelligence complex developed by Ukraine-based company Falcons and supported by the defence technology cluster Brave1. It comprises three direction finding (DF) systems for the detection of communication signals, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and electronic warfare systems, the company states .

The complex can operate for up to 24 hours in automatic mode, employ correlation-interferometric DF methods, and can detect equipment using frequency-hopping spread spectrum (FHSS) techniques, the company detailed. A number of complexes can also be connected to form a large network. The company deliberately omits the range of the system on its website. (Source: Janes)

20 Nov 23. Ukraine Produces Dozens of Shahed Drone Clones per Month.

Ukraine produces dozens of so-called Ukrainian ‘Shaheds’ per month, which are clones of Iranian drones, Oleksandr Kamyshin, Minister of Strategic Industry, said at the annual meeting of the European Business Association.

Key facts

According to Kamyshin, currently the defense industry makes a significant contribution to the growth of the country’s economy and should become its main sector in the future.
“Starting with what is called “Ukrainian Shahed”, we do not say the name of this product, but we started mass production of it and now (produce) dozens a month, continuing with many other items that we previously produced very little, but now we have decent numbers,” said the minister.
He added that the multiple growth of production does not always satisfy the government. “We are satisfied with a tenfold increase or more. We have such growth in many areas,” he explained.
The minister noted that there is no question of business integration with Ukroboronprom, because state-owned factories are working, and investors are developing the private sector. “Today, many drone companies saw an opportunity in one of the state-owned factories to find resources that they could not find on their own,” he said.
For example, the service center at the state plant helps private small drone companies. According to Kamyshin, this is an example of how the state helps development with its resources.
“In this regard, the Ukrainian “Shahed” appeared precisely at the state plant,” the minister said.

Context

Ukraine has started serial production of a new kamikaze drone , it is already being ordered by the defense forces for their operations, General Director of JSC “Ukrainian Defense Industry” Herman Smetanin said.

At the beginning of the year, the former management of Ukroboronprom announced the development of a kamikaze drone capable of flying 1,000 km. The product was then only at the testing stage. (Source: UAS VISION/Forbes Ukraine Magazine)

17 Nov 23. Realigning EU defence: EDA’s new priorities in light of Ukraine war. The EDA sets a high priority on land-based precision engagement, learning from the difficulties Ukraine has endured with limited long-range strike capabilities.

The European Defence Agency (EDA) announced on 14 November the approval of 22 capability development priorities to reflect the military realities observed in Ukraine and support EU defence objectives.

Lessons from the war in Ukraine were recently spelled out in clear detail by William Kaplan of the Institute for the Study of War on 15 November, drawing on an assessment from Ukrainian Commander in Chief General Valery Zaluzhnyi. For many points of the EDA priorities, these lessons can be used as a prism to elucidate the motivation for the due attention. However, there are key lessons that do not appear to have gained corresponding attention from the EDA.

For example, Russian defensive measures, which have been carefully planned and implemented over an extended period, include robust defensive works and strategically placed minefields that pose challenges to swift mechanised manoeuvrability. While the EDA focuses on naval mine-warfare, no mention of land-based defensive or anti-mine capabilities appear.

Precision strike a central priority

However, the EDA priorities broadly recognise key lessons learned from Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, and identify the need for full spectrum land forces that are agile, mobile, interoperable, technologically advanced, energy efficient, and resilient.

The EDA acknowledges that the kill chain for future kinetic engagement with precision fire effects will rely on Electronic Warfare (EW) effects on the adversary. Consequently, the priorities include a focus on naval EW systems, and in the air domain on improved weapon systems for targeting adversary EW capabilities and updating air-based EW systems, as well as some consideration given to making land-based, very long-range, and indirect fire support capabilities resistant to EW, but no specific reference is made to a land-based EW effector.

This is concerning because of the prevalence and effectiveness of Russian EW in Ukraine, including the disruption of GPS signals and drone communications, that has presented challenges for Ukraine in fully utilising precision munitions provided by Western allies, which heavily rely on GPS. It has also impacted the effectiveness of Ukraine’s own drone systems.

The EDA sets a high priority on land-based precision engagement, learning from the difficulties Ukraine has endured with limited long-range strike capabilities, limitations that pose challenges in achieving the desired operational-level interdiction to effectively isolate the battlefield from Russian operational and strategic reserves.

Both sides of the conflict in Ukraine have developed reconnaissance-strike systems that combine drones with artillery and other long-range weapons, making it highly risky to gather vehicles in visible concentrations, and the widespread use of reconnaissance drones greatly reduces the element of surprise in large-scale operations.

Logistics come to the fore

The EDA is prioritising integrated air and missile defence systems, recognising that Ukraine’s limited air defence capabilities have resulted in Russian manned aircraft being able to provide close support to front line units and target Ukrainian tactical reserves and logistics nodes.

Due to limited numbers of tanks and armoured vehicles, as well as concerns about future replacements, Ukraine is strategically managing its mechanised forces by prioritising their preservation rather than engaging in concentrated assaults on the current battlefield. The EDA priorities give weight to the need for agile and sustainable logistics, including shared stocks and common warehousing, logistics footprint, and strengthening maintenance requirements to deal with extreme weather conditions. If synergies are found between this and the EDA priority to develop and upgrade Main Battle Tanks, Infantry Fighting Vehicles, and Armoured Personnel Carriers, European forces may avoid such quandaries over the attrition of platforms in a peer-to-peer conflict.

Seabed warfare has also appeared within the attention of the EDA, which seeks to enhance these capabilities within the naval domain, as well as prioritising anti-submarine capabilities and advanced autonomous underwater vehicles. The vulnerability of national infrastructure to seabed interdiction was made clear in September 2022 when the Nord Stream pipelines were destroyed in a series of powerful explosions. Comprehensive underwater situational awareness and maritime domain are now a high priority EDA capability target. (Source: army-technology.com)

17 Nov 23. Ukraine joins Nato Military Committee. Ukraine took a seat at the Nato Military Committee for the first time in an enduring co-operation following the Russia’s invasion.

In a step towards deepening military co-operation, Nato held its first Nato-Ukraine Council in the Military Representatives format with Ukraine sitting on the NATO Military Committee on November 16, marking the development of the alliance’s relationship with Ukraine.

The meeting’s significance lies in its potential implications for Nato’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict. While Nato has consistently supported Ukraine, this enhanced level of co-operation raises questions about the alliance’s role and its stance of not being a direct participant in the war in Ukraine. The integration of Ukraine into Nato’s military discussions, though not constituting full membership, represents a closer alignment between the two and could impact Nato’s future strategic decisions regarding the Ukraine conflict and beyond.

Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of the Nato Military Committee, formally welcomed Ukrainian Military Representative Major General Serhii Salkutsan, seated between representatives from Turkey and the United Kingdom.

Bauer emphasised the new format’s role in facilitating detailed discussions on Ukraine’s security situation and its broader implications. “It is a pleasure to welcome you at this table and this appropriate setting. We look forward to using this new and improved arena for comprehensive discussions on Ukrainian matters, and their impact on regional and global security”, noted the Chair in his remarks.

Salkutsan expressed Ukraine’s appreciation for Nato’s ongoing support, highlighting the importance of their nearly three-decade-long partnership with the alliance. “It is an honour to join you all and to take this seat amongst Allies – but most of all we are truly honoured to be part of Nato’s Partner family and we look forward to moving even closer.”

The meeting focused on Ukraine’s efforts to counter Russian military aggression, underscoring the need for sustained Nato support. Bauer stressed that supporting Ukraine serves Nato’s security interests, citing the dangers posed by unchecked Russian military ambitions.

Salkutsan presented a piece of a downed Russian helicopter to the Nato Military Committee, reflecting Ukraine’s determination in the conflict. “This piece of wreckage represents Ukraine’s righteous fight to take back their homeland. Ukrainians have the will, the grit and the determination to take back what has always been rightfully theirs. And NATO will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes”, concluded Admiral Bauer. (Source: army-technology.com)

17 Nov 23. UK estimates indicate Russia has lost 15% of its tank inventory in Ukraine. The figure as a percentage of active platforms is likely to be higher, with Russia also potentially unable to effectively replace battlefield losses of more modern equipment. The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) has estimated the Russian invasion of Ukraine, now 631 days old, to have cost Moscow more than 2,400 main battle tanks (MBTs) – equivalent to around 15% of its pre-war inventory.

The figures, released on 13 November as a UK parliamentary written response, also detailed Russian equipment losses to be “over 7,117 armoured vehicles”, including 2,475 MBTs and 1,300 artillery systems. In the air and maritime domains, the UK has estimated Russian losses to include 93 fixed-wing aircraft, 132 helicopters, 320 uncrewed aerial vehicles, and 16 naval vessels of all types.

In terms of military personnel losses, the MoD estimated that Russia has sustained 302,000 killed or wounded during operations. Russian losses from private military contractors, such as the Wagner Group, which have played a significant role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are not included in the casualty figures but are thought to be around 100,000, bringing the potential total Russian casualty figure to up to 400,000.

Ukraine’s own figures for Russian combat losses are considerably more inflated in term of equipment, claiming some 5388 tanks of various types, 10,171 armoured personnel carriers, and over 8,500 artillery and guided rocket systems. In aviation, Kyiv is claiming Russian losses are nearly 650 fixed- and rotary-wing platforms, along with over 5,600 UAVs.

In terms of Russian personnel losses, Ukraine states that it has recorded over 315,000 Russian military personnel killed in action. Fighting in the first year of the war was thought to have resulted Russia and Ukraine sustained a combined total of 300,000 casualties.

Russian vehicle losses likely unsustainable

GlobalData analysis of the Russian defence market forecast that its defence budget is anticipated to grow from $47.2bn in 2023 to reach $54.3bn in 2027 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5% over the period. Russian defence acquisition spending is also anticipated to increase from $27bn in 2023 to reach $30.9bn in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 3.4%.

According to GlobalData Russia’s land inventory prior to its invasion of Ukraine indicate a potential fleet of 16,970 tanks, comprised of 550 1990s era T-90s, 3,450 T-80s and 8,950 T-72s from the 1970s, with a further 2,000 T-64s and 2,400 T-62s, originating from the 1960s. Of the new T-14 Armata MBTs, Russia was thought to hold around 20 in its order of battle.

It is commonplace for inventories to reflect vehicles in service and reserve, but also those being cannibalised for use as spares and repairs platforms, such as disclosed by the UK for its Challenger 2 MBT fleet earlier this year.

As a percentage, Russia’s supposed 2,475 MBTs destroyed in the Ukraine war constitute around 15% of its total inventory. However, a greater proportion of the losses will be from the more advanced T-90s, T-80s, and T-72s, with a significant amount of backfilling or regeneration of armoured capability being done through use of bringing back into service legacy equipment.

GlobalData research in December 2022 calculated that Russia’s equipment loss in the first ten months of the war in Ukraine had cost Moscow more materiel than was seen in both Chechen wars combined.

Can Ukraine exploit Kherson salient?

Western officials have spoken of Russia’s land forces as having been set back by 30 years, in terms of equipment and personnel losses, with tactics now akin to human wave style operations in a bid to swamp Ukrainian defensive positions along the frontline in the south and east of the country.

The ability for Russia to replenish its equipment losses is likely limited in the near term, with considerable manpower that would otherwise be utilised in the country’s defence industrial base having been diverted, through a series of partial civilian mobilisation efforts, to the frontlines in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive has seemingly not had the success that was initially hoped for, with Russian defences proving extremely difficult to overcome even with the armour and other materiel provided to Kyiv by its Western backers. However, elements of three Ukrainian brigades have crossed the Dnipro River near Kherson, establishing small bridgeheads up to 4km in depth that could be exploited if able to be reinforced. (Source: army-technology.com)

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