NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Sep 22.

BAKHMUT: During his visit to Washington DC, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky vowed that Ukraine will re-take Bakhmut, stressing Ukrainian forces had a ‘very, very comprehensive plan’ on how to accomplish this. He did not provide further details, but following the liberation of Klishchiivka and Andriivka to the south of the town last week, it is clear that Ukrainian forces are continuing to commit sizeable resources to counter-offensive operations around Bakhmut. Ukraine’s Eastern Group of Forces spokesperson Ilya Yevlash reported on 21 September that Ukrainian forces have made unspecified success near a number of villages to the south of Bakhmut, including Kurdyumivka, 8 miles (13km) southwest of Bakhmut. Additionally, Yevlash also reported that recently gained positions near Klishchiivka and Andriivka are allowing Ukrainian forces to bring artillery closer to the T-0513 highway. This will undermine a key Russian ground line of communication (GLOC) on this axis, though Russian forces will likely be able to continue to use it to resupply themselves irrespectively.
DONETSK: Nothing significant to report.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 21 September, a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces launched offensive actions near Synkivka and Petropavlivka, located around five miles (8km) north-east and four miles (7km) east of Kupiansk. However, he did not specify whether Russian forces made gains either on 21 or 22 September. On 21 September, Ukrainian National Guard Colonel Mykola Urshalovych stated that Russia is reinforcing forward tank and assault units in the Kupiansk and Luhansk direction.
SOUTHERN: The Wall Street Journal reported on 21 September that Ukrainian forces have advanced to the outskirts of the village of Novoprokopivka, five miles (8.5km) north of Verbove, though this cannot be confirmed. Some Russian sources have also reported on Ukrainian advances to the west of Verbove over the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to laterally redeploy reinforcements to the Orikhiv axis (Zaporizhzhia oblast), with geolocated footage from 20-21 September indicating that elements of the 22nd Guards Spetsnaz Brigade are now supporting Russian operations west of Verbove. It is likely that these and other units, principally VDV airborne units, are conducting active defence operations across the southern axis.
SOUTHERN: Unconfirmed reports from a highly credible source received over the last 24 hours indicate that Russian forces have been given orders to conduct a major counter-attack around Robotyne in a bid to shorten the defensive line. Ukrainian forces have not made much progress south and west of Robotyne in recent days, and this could reflect ongoing Russian counter-attacks, which could realistically be preventing further Ukrainian advances. Throughout this war, Russian commanders have consistently been under pressure to attack the enemy, even while on the strategic defensive. Such counter-attacks are frequently poorly co-ordinated and lack sufficient artillery support, with Russian forces taking notable casualties despite being on the defensive. Ultimately, this Russian operational culture has often resulted in highly costly, but in many instances still successful, counter-attacks which have succeeded in blunting Ukrainian advances and slowing their momentum.
SOUTHERN: A Ukrainian soldier quoted by the Wall Street Journal on 21 September indicated that while Russian forces defending trench lines are ‘poor quality’, assault troops conducting counter-attacks are much ‘stronger’. This likely reflects the role of VDV airborne and Spetsnaz units on this stretch of the frontline, and indicates that Russian counter-attacking forces can still yet cause major problems for the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Nevertheless, it remains unclear if a large Russian counter-attack will materialise in the coming days around Robotyne-Verbove, and whether such an effort will continue to slow the Ukrainians as they have done over the last three months. What is clear, however, is that Russian commanders are still prioritising their active defence strategy in the south, even as the highly attritional nature of the fighting continues to degrade the quality and combat effectiveness of their forces.
STRIKES: On 22 September, the governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev, reported that Ukraine launched a missile attack against the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. Footage published on social media showed smoke arising from the headquarters. The strike, likely conducted with Storm Shadow cruise missiles, constitutes the third consecutive attack against military targets in Crimea and further underscores the deficiencies of Russia’s air defence systems in the peninsula. Ukrainian forces are intensifying their attacks on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, with Ukrainian authorities claiming to have launched an additional attack on an airfield near Saky with modified Neptun missiles this week. Saky is a highly strategic base operated by the Black Sea Fleet, and 12 Su-24 and Su-30 fighter-bombers were reportedly at the airbase at the time of the attack, though it is unclear what damage was caused. On 22 September, Russian Crimean authorities also reported that air defences intercepted a Ukrainian guided missile and two drones in western parts of Crimea, while the Russian MoD also claimed that a drone was shot in the Tuapsinsky district of Krasnodar Krai.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

AID: Ukrainian media reported on 21 September that Kyiv has received 10 Swedish Stridsvagn 122 main battle tanks, which will be manned by Ukrainian crews trained in Sweden. The outlets noted that the tanks have been in Ukraine for ‘some time’, though did not provide further information on when they had arrived. Stridsvagn 122 is a third-generation Swedish main battle tank, which is a licensed German Leopard 2A5 tank with various modifications. As per a statement by the Swedish Armed Forces Headquarters, Stockholm decided on the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine to donate the tanks to Kyiv, adding that the Swedish Armed Forces army units had already prepared for this decision, as well as to train Ukrainian personnel on how to use the tanks.
SECURITY: A group of Russian State Duma lawmakers and senators have prepared a package of draft laws which would allow the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) to create volunteer formations. Alexander Khinshtein, the chairperson of the Russian State Duma Committee on Information Policy, said on 21 September that volunteer formations will be created by Rosgvardia with presidential approval. Khinstein insisted that the proposal is not connected to recent reports about the transfer of former Wagner Group units to Rosgvardia and said such claims are most likely false. The official also noted that the initiative envisions formations being involved in carrying out defence-related tasks during mobilisation, martial law, during conditions of armed conflict, as well as during counter-terrorism operations and more. Khinshtein said the bill would be submitted today (22 September) for consideration. The news outlet iStories reported that, on 20 September, a Wagner Group representative distributed a message stating that Wagner’s management is negotiating co-operating with Rosgvardia, stating that Wagner Group will be a separate entity while retaining its name and core operating principles. While this remains unconfirmed, integrating elements of Wagner into the Rosgvardia remains possible, though given their crucial role in domestic security, they are unlikely to be able to retain much of their independence.

FORECAST

AID: CNN reported on 21 September, citing two unspecified sources, that US Republican Party leaders in the US Congress are considering cutting assistance for Ukraine from their long-term spending bill to win over hardliners and break a budgetary gridlock. The outlet stated that a procedural vote on the defence bill failed to pass earlier that day partially because of hardliners’ opposition to USD 300 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. According to CNN, the bill specifies that the money can be allocated for training, equipment, lethal aid, logistics support, and other things, and the initiative has been used to aid Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

According to Pew Research Centre, 28% of Americans surveyed in June believe that the US is providing too much aid to Ukraine. Notably, 44% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents consider that Washington DC gives Kyiv too much aid. In March 2022, just 9% of Republican or Republican-leaning independents had this view, indicating a significant change in perception as the war has progressed and is increasingly likely to protract. Ultimately, CNN’s report underscores that aiding Ukraine will likely be a major source of contention between Republican and Democrat lawmakers ahead of the 2024 elections; a Republican victory could realistically significantly alter Washington DC’s provision of military and financial support for Kyiv.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on 22 September that a ‘long-term agreement’ was reached with the US to produce weapons together after meeting with his US counterpart Joe Biden in Washington DC. Zelensky hailed the development as a new level of unity between Kyiv and Washington DC, stating that co-production in the defence industry with the US is ‘historic’. Zelensky also said the agreement will provide new jobs for both nations and enable Ukraine to produce air defence systems. Zelensky did not specify when the agreement will begin nor the systems that will be jointly produced, though such an initiative will likely help build Ukrainian resilience and domestic production beyond relying on open-ended military aid packages.

Also on 21 September, the US announced an additional security assistance package for Ukraine worth USD 325m. It includes AIM-9M missiles for air defence, additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), avenger air defence systems and more. A US official stated that the package would not include Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) long-range missiles, despite growing speculation that the Biden administration has been considering their transfer. The official nevertheless said the missiles could be provided in future aid packages.

Sep 21.

*Poland-Ukraine: Polish defence supplies to Ukraine could realistically resume after elections. On 20 September, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki stated that Poland would halt arms supplies to Ukraine as it prioritises national defence. The announcement comes amid an escalating dispute with Kyiv over importing Ukrainian grain, and Poland’s decision is likely part of the Law and Justice (PiS) government’s plans to promote its efforts in defending national interests ahead of the legislative elections in October. Since the beginning of the war, Poland’s military aid to Ukraine has amounted to USD 3 billion, which is modest compared to the EU, UK and US, but Warsaw has nevertheless been amongst the staunchest allies of Kyiv. A short-term interruption of Polish defence aid would only moderately impact Ukraine’s war effort, and it remains a realistic possibility that Warsaw will resume supplies after the elections. In the meantime, Poland’s decision is highly unlikely to disrupt the flow of other foreign military aid through the country.

BAKHMUT: The Ukrainian General Staff reported on 20 September that its forces are continuing to make advances in counter-offensive operations around Bakhmut. Earlier this week, Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian commanders ordered ill-conceived and poorly executed counter-attacks to retake Andriivka, located around six miles (10km) south-west of Bakhmut, as well as other recently lost positions south of the town. According to recent Russian reports, a chronic lack of artillery support and faulty rounds continue to plague their defensive operations in this sector. Russian commanders have tended to place significant emphasis on counter-attacking; this is likely undermining their efforts to prepare fresh defensive positions. While Ukrainian progress around Bakhmut remains slow, these issues will possibly create further opportunities for Kyiv’s forces; a dearth of morale, as well as artillery shortages and poorly co-ordinated counter-attacks, will continue to undermine Russia’s combat effectiveness.
DONETSK: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
SOUTHERN: Ukrainian forces are continuing to widen the breach they created along the southern Orikhiv front. Progress towards Verbove, located around 12 miles (20km) south-east of Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia oblast), has been slow. Geolocated footage published on 20 September shows vehicles, namely Styker and Marder infantry assault vehicles, operating behind the main Russian anti-tank line for the first time. This is a notable development, especially as Ukrainian operations past this defensive line have so far been conducted by dismounted infantry. As such, this likely reflects that Ukraine is succeeding in widening the breach and bringing forward additional (and heavier) armoured support to advance its counter-offensive.
SOUTHERN: Further east along the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia oblast border, Russian sources reported earlier on 21 September that the situation remains broadly stable. They claim that both sides are rotating their forces and preparing to resume fighting along the Vremevsky salient. However, they also reported that small-scale Ukrainian raids continue to occur, particularly near Staromaiorske, located around six miles (10km) south-west of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast).
STRIKES: Earlier on 21 September, Russia launched a large-scale missile strike against Ukraine, including 43 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles. The missiles were reportedly launched in different waves and from different directions, most likely to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defence systems. Ukraine’s air force reported that its air defences intercepted 36 of the missiles. According to the local authorities, 20 missiles were destroyed over Kyiv oblast, with falling debris damaging a petrol station and a residential building in Kyiv’s Darnytskyi district. Other reports indicate that the remaining missiles caused damage in Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Kherson, Lviv and Rivne oblasts. Crucially, Ukraine’s state energy operator, Ukrenergo, reported that energy facilities were damaged in western and central Ukraine. As such, the attack marks the first Russian mass strike against energy infrastructure in six months.
STRIKES: On 20 September, Andriy Yusov, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR), stated that Russia is conducting reconnaissance activities to map Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in preparation for further strikes. Yusov stressed that Russia will most likely target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the coming winter season, as we previously assessed. However, the official stated that Russia has likely not replenished its missile stocks due to production capacity limitations. While Yusov assessed that Russia’s upcoming strikes will not match the intensity of last winter’s campaign, the aforementioned strikes over the last 24 hours demonstrate that Russia currently retains sufficient stocks. In July, Volodymyr Kudrytskiy, the head of Ukrenergo, announced that the state operator is preparing for the worst-case scenario, which includes repeated strikes against energy infrastructure. Kudrytskiy also stressed that the country’s main energy network will be able to function without restrictions. However, Russia will most likely intensify strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the coming cold season, which will almost certainly raise the risk of power disruption in Ukraine.
STRIKES: The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that air defences in Crimea intercepted all 19 drones launched by Ukraine against Crimea on the night of 20-21 September. However, OSINT footage allegedly shows that the drones hit Russian military targets in Crimea. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported that, together with the navy, it launched a drone and missile strike against the Saky military airfield in Crimea. The SBU reportedly used drones to overwhelm Russia’s air defences before launching Neptun cruise missiles. The attack allegedly destroyed 12 combat aircraft, including Su-24 and Su-30s, as well as Pantsir anti-aircraft missile systems (though this cannot be confirmed). The SBU also claimed that on the morning of 20 September, it carried out a missile strike against a Russian Black Sea Fleet command post near Sevastopol. The attack was jointly co-ordinated with Ukraine’s air force and navy. The SBU claimed that Russian personnel were killed and that ‘expensive equipment’ was damaged. The timeframe of the strikes clearly illustrates Crimea’s increasing vulnerability to Ukrainian strikes.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

RECONSTRUCTION: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with the recently appointed US special representative for Ukraine’s economic recovery, Penny Pritzker, on 20 September in New York City (US). Zelensky and Pritzker discussed priority areas for Ukraine’s reconstruction, as well as support for the ‘most promising’ sectors of the Ukrainian economy. According to a statement on the Ukrainian president’s website, Zelensky noted the importance of US businesses in the restoration of infrastructure that was destroyed due to Russia’s full-scale invasion, such as educational institutions, residential buildings and energy facilities. Given that Russian forces are highly likely to renew attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the coming weeks, the assistance of US-based companies in reconstructing critical energy facilities would likely ease some post-war financial pressure. Participating US enterprises will possibly contribute towards making reconstructed energy facilities more resilient in the face of potential future Russian attacks in the medium-to-long term.
NAGORNO-KARABAKH: Russia’s MoD disclosed on 20 September that several Russian peacekeepers were killed in Nagorno-Karabakh, where a fragile ceasefire between ethnic-Armenian and -Azerbaijani forces remains in place. The MoD stated that a military vehicle carrying an unspecified number of Russian peacekeepers came under small arms fire near the village of Janyatag (Armenian: Chankatagh). There were reportedly no survivors. Russian media outlets reported earlier on 21 September that the deputy commander of the Russian Northern Fleet’s submarine forces, Ivan Kovgan, was among the dead. It is unclear whether other senior Russian military personnel were killed. While Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev reportedly apologised in a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the incident will likely strain relations between Baku and Moscow. However, Russia is highly unlikely to respond militarily due to its embroilment in Ukraine and its determination to act as mediator following the ceasefire.
For further analysis and scenario planning around how the war will evolve in 2023, please see Sibylline Ukraine Monthly: Scenarios and Forecasts – 22 August 2023.

FORECAST

AID: On 20 September, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced that Warsaw will no longer supply weapons to Ukraine. Morawiecki implied that Poland is prioritising its national defence, stating that Warsaw will now focus on arming itself with the most modern weapons. The announcement comes amid an escalating dispute over Ukrainian grain (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 19 September 2023). Polish European Affairs Minister Szymon Szynkowski vel Sęk stated on 19 September that Kyiv’s actions have undermined Polish public support for Ukraine, signalling a rift in Ukrainian-Polish relations. Morawiecki’s comments are likely part of the Law and Justice (PiS) government’s plan to promote the defence of national interests ahead of October’s legislative elections.

Slovakia’s former prime minister, Robert Fico, who is a frontrunner in the country’s upcoming parliamentary elections, recently vowed that Bratislava will not send arms or ammunition to Ukraine if his party, SMER, forms a government. Should SMER play a leading role in the next government, this would possibly hinder Bratislava’s military and political support for Kyiv, despite Slovakia having been a strong supporter of Ukraine in its fight against Russia.

Since the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Poland’s military aid has amounted to around USD 3 billion, which is modest compared to aid contributions from the EU, UK and US. However, Warsaw has been among the staunchest of Kyiv’s allies. As such, a short-term interruption of Polish defence aid will possibly only moderately impact Ukraine’s war effort. It remains a realistic possibility that Warsaw will resume aid supplies after the October elections or in early 2024. While Poland’s decision is highly unlikely to disrupt the flow of other foreign military aid through the country, it will likely increase tensions between Kyiv and Warsaw and exacerbate divisions within NATO and the EU.

Sep 20.

BAKHMUT: Ukrainian forces are continuing to report that their forces are inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces south of Bakhmut, but there is no indication that they have made any advances over the last 24 hours. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on 20 September that Russian forces are continuing counter-attacks in an attempt to regain lost territory, but these are reportedly failing.
DONETSK: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMMINA: Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that a Russian strike destroyed a bridge across the Oskil River on 19 September at 1300hrs (local time). The aim is most likely to obstruct Ukraine’s supply routes across the river, though Ukrainian forces still control other bridges. On 19 September, Russian milbloggers reported Russian attacks in the Kreminna sector. On 20 September, a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces progressed in the direction of Novoyehorivka, located around ten miles (16km) south-west of Svatove, though such claims remain unverified.
SOUTHERN: Ukrainian forces have made further advances towards Verbove, 12 miles (20km) south-east of Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia oblast) on the southern axis over the last 24 hours. Ukrainian officials and military personnel have also reported that Russian units have taken heavier than usual casualties in the south in recent days, which if accurate could provide Ukrainian forces with an opportunity to build momentum in the south.
STRIKES: On the night of 20 September, Ukrainian air defences reportedly intercepted 17 of 24 Russian Shahed-131/136 drones. The drones targeted Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Poltava and Sumy oblasts. Local authorities reported that drones struck an oil refinery in Kremenchuk (Poltava oblast). Meanwhile, Russian authorities reported that air defences destroyed four drones over Belgorod and Oryol region early on 20 September. On the same day, a Russian media outlet also reported a fire erupted in Sochi (Krasnodar Krai) near an oil depot and Sochi International Airport (AER). While the cause of the incident has not been disclosed, local reports indicate that an explosion preceded the fire. As such, there is a realistic possibility that a Ukrainian attack caused the fire.
SABOTAGE: On 20 September, Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) claimed that unknown saboteurs blew up an AN-148 and IL-20 aircraft and an MI-28N helicopter on 18 September at the Chkalovsky military airbase in Moscow oblast. The GUR stated that Russian authorities are investigating the sabotage and that significant repairs will be needed to put the two aircraft back into service due to the damage. Although the GUR did not claim responsibility for the attack, it remains likely that it was orchestrated by Ukraine, especially given the recent attacks against Russian military infrastructure and aircraft. On the night of 29-30 August, a strike damaged several Russian military aircraft at the Pskov air base. Kyrylo Budanov, head of the GUR, claimed that the strike was launched from within Russian territory. If confirmed, the latest apparent attack likely illustrates Kyiv’s increasing capacity to co-ordinate attacks deep into Russian territory against high-priority military targets, with such attacks likely relying on pro-Ukrainian operatives.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

BLACK SEA: Around a dozen crewmembers were evacuated following an explosion early on 20 September onboard a Togo-flagged cargo ship off Sulina (Tulcea County, Romania). The union leader of Romania’s maritime rescue agency (ARSVOM), Robert Robescu, said the vessel was carrying bulk cement to Ukraine’s Danube River port Izmail, but said many ships temporarily dock in, or near, Sulina port for safety reasons. The Romanian Naval Authority said there are no indications that a sea mine caused the explosion despite reports that the ship could have passed over a mine, possibly one from the Second World War. The mayor of Constanța disclosed that it is possible an explosion occurred internally on the ship and divers will reportedly investigate where the blast came from. While it remains unclear what caused the blast, loose sea mines and washed-up drones used in the war in Ukraine will continue to pose credible threats to the safety of maritime shipping in the north-western Black Sea over the long term.
AID: Ukraine’s recently appointed defence minister, Rustem Umerov, said that Kyiv’s allies at the 19 September Ramstein summit agreed to form ‘capabilities coalitions’ around five priority areas. These include air defence, artillery, aviation, naval and armoured vehicles. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated after the summit that establishing targeted coalitions is part of the long-term strategy to aid Ukraine. The UK’s Defence Secretary, Grant Shapps, pledged to provide Kyiv with tens of thousands more artillery shells in the coming months following the Ramstein meeting. Latvia also announced it would send additional military support to Kyiv covering the ‘most critical’ capabilities, including additional mortars, air defence systems and large calibre ammunition.
AID: German news outlet Der Spiegel reported on 19 September that Ukraine refused to accept a recent batch of 10 Leopard 1A5 tanks sent by Berlin due to their poor condition. According to the outlet, Kyiv informed the German Ministry of Defence (MoD) that the tanks which had arrived in Poland needed repairs, with some requiring significant refurbishments. Germany reportedly dispatched experts to Poland to inspect the tanks, who allegedly determined that they were ‘worn out’ during the training of Ukrainian soldiers on the vehicles in Germany. Some of the first 10 Leopard tanks transferred by Germany in July also reportedly had similar issues. Ultimately, if further defective military equipment is transferred to Ukraine in the coming weeks or months that the Ukrainian military is unable to repair, this will delay their usage on the battlefield, or mean that it is not used at all depending on the extent of the damage. Given Ukraine’s limited domestic repair capacity for these vehicles, further inspections before their being dispatched are likely necessary to ensure that Ukrainian forces can actually use the equipment provided.

FORECAST

SPILLOVER: CNN reported on 19 September that Ukraine’s special services were likely behind a series of drone strikes against Wagner Group-backed forces in Sudan. Videos purport to show a succession of drone strikes in and around Omdurman, a city across the Nile River from the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, which has become a focal point of fighting between the two warring factions – the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). According to the outlet, two commercially available drones used widely by Ukrainian forces were involved in at least eight strikes. Ukrainian text was also seen on the drone controller and the operator seen in the reflection of the controller reportedly appeared to be ‘foreign’, though they were wearing a balaclava and were not identifiable. This does not necessarily imply that the individual was Ukrainian, however. Wagner Group has worked closely with the RSF for several years, supporting them with the acquisition of arms and equipment, with the US accusing the mercenary force of providing the RSF with surface-to-air missiles in late May.

Although an unspecified Ukrainian military source claimed that Ukrainian special services were likely responsible for the attacks, the use of commercially available drones used by Ukrainian forces does not necessarily equate to Ukrainian involvement. Ukraine would also likely be more inclined to prioritise allocating resources, such as drones, to counter Russian forces in Ukraine and strike targets within Russia, rather than in Sudan or other theatres of conflict. Subsequently, such claims, either confirmed or unconfirmed, are likely part of broader information operations designed to demonstrate Ukrainian capability and willingness to target Russian assets and interests beyond the Ukrainian battlefield. Ukrainian officials have shown clear interest in conducting operations far beyond the Ukrainian battlefield in a bid to undermine Russian (and specifically Wagner Group) interests. The so-called Discord leaks disclosed in April that Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) reportedly planned to strike Russian forces in Syria, as well as Wagner Group operations in Mali.

US: Congressional polarisation over Ukraine aid raises regional security risks, bilateral tensions. On 19 September, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy declined to commit to continued military aid to Ukraine. McCarthy is under pressure from his caucus in the House to not include said military aid as part of any proposed spending bill; this conflicts with demands by US President Joe Biden, who has stated that aid to Ukraine should be included in any spending measure. McCarthy’s stance differs from the positions of Senate Republicans, who continue to voice support for aiding Kyiv, stipulating that it should remain as part of the short-term spending bill. McCarthy’s agreement to set aside aid as a separate issue will likely appease House Republicans who oppose additional military support for the country. Protracted disagreement on the issue of aid comes amid Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to the White House on 21 September. The continuation of military aid is uncertain in the medium-to-long term; it will remain a contentious issue during the 2024 elections, raising regional security risks and possibly straining bilateral relations with US allies in Europe.

Sep 19.

BAKHMUT: The Ukrainian Commander of Ground Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, claimed on 18 September that his forces destroyed elements of three Russian units defending Andriivka and Klishchiivka, both of which were liberated over the weekend. The combat capabilities of Russia’s 72nd Motorised Rifle (3rd Army Corps), 31st Guards VDV and 83rd Guards VDV brigades were reportedly destroyed. Reports from Russian sources that the commander of the 31st Brigade was killed during the operation underscore that Syrskyi’s claim is likely to be broadly accurate, though we cannot confirm the full extent of the units’ degradation. Russian forces will nonetheless be under mounting pressure to redeploy other units to stem further Ukrainian advances south of Bakhmut, though the combat effectiveness of exhausted Ukrainian forces after months of attritional fighting in the area remains unclear. Nevertheless, Syrskyi reported on 18 September that Russian forces have since conducted (albeit unsuccessful) counter-attacks. It is therefore likely that heavy fighting is ongoing. There is limited indication at present of either an imminent wider Russian withdrawal in the area or a major Ukrainian breakthrough.
DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 18 September indicates that Russian forces made marginal advances north of Avdiivka, though the overall tempo of fighting along this front remains on trend.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage from 18 September indicates that Ukrainian forces are continuing to advance west of Verbove (Zaporizhzhia oblast). Ukraine is likely attempting to funnel its forces (primarily dismounted infantry) eastwards between two lines of Russian defences situated to the north and the south of the western entrance to the town of Verbove. Russian sources reported earlier on 19 September that Ukrainian forces are bringing forward additional reserves to reinvigorate the counter-offensive, a move likely designed to coincide with President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the US. Ukrainian commanders are likely facing renewed pressure to demonstrate to their principal foreign backer that the counter-offensive can still achieve results, though it remains unclear whether Ukrainian forces can build the momentum they need to break through Russian defensive lines. The former Ukrainian deputy defence minister, Hanna Maliar, stated on 18 September that Ukrainian forces liberated two square miles (5.2 sq km) in the southern direction over the last week.
STRIKES: Ukraine’s air force reported that Russia launched 30 Shahed-136/131 drones and an Iskander-M ballistic missile overnight on 19 September. Ukraine’s air defences allegedly intercepted 27 of the drones. The local authorities reported that the remaining drones hit an industrial warehouse in the western city of Lviv (Lviv oblast). The Iskander-M ballistic missile was directed at Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk oblast), where the local authorities reported explosions; further details regarding the extent of the damage have yet to be disclosed.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

BELARUS: Ukraine’s National Resistance Centre reported on 18 September that fewer than 1,000 Wagner Group fighters remain in Belarus, though this cannot be confirmed. According to the centre, around 200 fighters of this estimated total are operating in the country as instructors for special units of the Belarusian internal affairs and defence ministries. The remainder reportedly comprises fighters who do not want to be recruited into newly formed private military companies (PMCs) or the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD). While these reports cannot be confirmed, Radio Svoboda claims that satellite imagery taken on the morning of 18 September shows that all Wagner Group tents in Belarus have been dismantled. This likely indicates that the number of Wagner Group fighters in the country has decreased significantly. The future of the group remains unclear following the apparent assassination of its former leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin. However, we assess that it is unlikely that the group remains a major semi-independent force in Belarus.
SANCTIONS: On 18 September, Bloomberg reported that the EU is preparing its 12th package of sanctions against Russia; they will possibly be announced as early as next month. According to (unnamed) sources familiar with the matter, the new restrictions will likely include the EU’s version of an imminent G7 ban on Russian diamonds. The G7’s measures will reportedly include both a direct ban on purchases from 1 January 2024 and an indirect ban which will take hold on a more gradual basis. Bloomberg’s unnamed sources also reported that the measures will possibly propose that the profits generated by frozen Russian Central Bank assets should be used to help Ukraine. A group of EU member states (including Poland and the Baltic states) has reportedly called for additional sanctions on liquified natural gas (LNG) and IT services. No further details were provided regarding the form of these measures. As ever, divisions between pro-Ukraine member states and those less supportive of Kyiv will possibly limit the scope and/or implementation of the (reportedly) impending sanctions package.
DRONES: On 18 September, the Russian outlet Kommersant reported that recent Chinese export restrictions on drones and their components have disrupted supplies and caused shortages in Russia. In late July, the Chinese government announced the imposition of export controls over certain unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and their components, including high-performance commercial models. Beijing is facing increased scrutiny from Western countries which allege that China is supplying Russia with dual-use technology. According to the new Chinese restrictions, exporters of drones and drone components must disclose information regarding the end customers (and the use of the exported drones) to obtain a licence. Kommersant reported that while Russian drone manufacturers have accrued large reserves of drone components, they hope that their Chinese suppliers will be able to obtain licenses for export to Russia. However, registration for licences can reportedly take up to a year. The report stated that Russian importers are trying to establish parallel imports through third-party countries, which typically include Moscow’s economic partners in Central Asia. However, the West has increasingly pressured such countries to halt back-channel supply networks which provide Russia with banned goods. Ultimately, the threat of Western secondary sanctions will likely further impede Russia’s access to drone components.

FORECAST

GRAIN: Ukraine’s first deputy prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, announced on 18 September that Kyiv has filed complaints against Hungary, Poland and Slovakia with the World Trade Organization (WTO) over their unilateral grain import bans. Svyrydenko insisted that it is critically important that the WTO proves that individual EU member states cannot ban imports of Ukrainian goods. The three countries imposed restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports on 15 September after the European Commission (EC) decided not to extend its ban on imports to Ukraine’s five EU neighbours, which also include Romania and Bulgaria.

Svyrydenko noted that Kyiv hopes these three states will lift their restrictions and that there will be no need for the relevant parties to settle the matter in the courts over a protracted period. As such, Svyrydenko is almost certainly aware that legal action would possibly create tension between Ukraine and its neighbours, some of which have been strong supporters of Kyiv since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Svyrydenko stated that Ukrainian traders are already suffering from additional transport costs and experiencing difficulties in fulfilling foreign contracts due to the three countries’ bans. Although the Bulgarian government confirmed it will accept Ukrainian grain after the end of the ban, Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu announced on 18 September that Bucharest will possibly extend its ban on Ukrainian grain for 30 days if import requests increase. However, Ciolacu revealed that Romania has not received requests to import grain from Ukraine since 15 September; this will possibly reduce the likelihood of Bucharest extending restrictions on Ukrainian grain.

On 19 September, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, Oleksandr Kubrakov, stated that a cargo vessel carrying grain departed the Black Sea port of Chornomorsk for the first time since the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) collapsed in July. Kubrakov revealed the vessel, Resilient Africa, is carrying around 3,000 tonnes of wheat. It is reportedly sailing towards the Bosphorus. The ship’s passage will be a significant test of Russia’s de-facto blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. Given the uptick in Ukrainian naval operations across north-western areas of the Black Sea, Russia’s ability to intercept vessels and to enforce its blockade is likely diminishing.

Russia: Divisions between EU member states will possibly limit scope of new sanctions. On 18 September, Bloomberg reported that the EU is preparing its 12th package of sanctions against Russia, which could be presented as early as next month. According to unnamed people familiar with the matter, the new restrictions will likely include the EU’s version of an upcoming G7 ban on Russian diamonds. The G7’s measures will reportedly consist of a direct ban on purchases from 1 January 2024 and an indirect ban which would take effect more gradually. Bloomberg’s sources also said the measures could possibly include a proposal to use the profits generated by frozen assets of the Russian central bank to help Ukraine. A group of EU member states, including Poland and the Baltic states, has reportedly called for additional sanctions on liquified natural gas (LNG) and IT services, though no further details were provided on the form in which these measures could take. Ultimately, divisions between pro-Ukraine member states and those less supportive of Kyiv will limit the scope or implementation of the 12th sanctions package.

Sep 18.

BAKHMUT: Ukrainian forces have liberated two key villages south of Bakhmut in recent days, representing the most significant advance in the sector for weeks. Geolocated footage from 17 September confirms that Ukrainian forces are now in control of Klishchiivka, four miles (6km) south-west of Bakhmut, which has been the site of heavy and attritional fighting for many months. Prior to this, Ukraine’s Third Separate Assault Brigade announced on 15 September that it had successfully liberated Andriivka, six miles (10km) south-west of Bakhmut, after surrounding the Russian defending force. It is highly likely that Russian forces have withdrawn to the east and are taking up fall-back defensive positions behind the railway line, which runs south-to-north to the east of both villages. While the retaking of Klishchiivka and Andriivka mark relatively small advances that have taken months to realise they are tactically significant. Ukrainian military spokesperson Illia Yevlash assessed on 17 September these positions will provide Ukraine with a foundation to launch further counter-offensive operations south of Bakhmut. However, Yevlash also reported that Russia has concentrated 52,000 troops around Bakhmut, and it is clear that a number of ostensibly elite Russian forces, including airborne VDV units, are still deployed in the area, which will slow further Ukrainian advances.
DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 16 September shows that Ukrainian forces made further gains near Krasnohorivka, located 5.5 miles (9km) north of Avdiivka, where Ukrainian progress was reported as of 13 September. Ukraine’s Tavriisk Grouping of Forces spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun stated on 17 August that Russian troops conduct 10 to 15 assaults a day in the area, with such attacks carried out by motorised rifle and combined ‘Storm’ and ‘Storm-Z’ units.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 17 September, Ukraine’s General Staff claimed that Russian forces have been conducting military activities near the border with Belgorod to fix Ukrainian troops and prevent the redeployment of such forces to southern parts of the front. The General Staff also stated that Russia has increased the density of mines along the border in Belgorod. Meanwhile, geolocated footage from 17 September indicates that Russian forces made limited advances south of Dibrova, located around three miles (5km) south-west of Kreminna. However, according to Eastern Grouping of Forces spokesperson Illia Yevlash on 17 September, Russia’s activity along the Kupiansk-Svatove line has decreased, with Russian forces likely regrouping following failed operations in Novoyehorivka, located around ten miles (16km) south-west of Svatove.
SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage from 15-16 September indicates that Ukrainian forces are advancing along Russian defensive positions both to the west of Robotyne and to the west of Verbove, though it remains unclear if they have managed to consolidate these new positions. Such footage continues to show an absence of Ukrainian heavy equipment past the Russian defensive line west of Verbove. This indicates that Ukrainian forces still have ground to make and will need to broaden their breakthrough in order to allow mechanised forces to operate effectively; advances at the moment are seemingly undertaken by dismounted infantry, which will slow the rate of advance and likely reflects enduring mine and artillery challenges for advancing Ukrainian forces.
SOUTHERN: Nevertheless, former deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar stated on 18 September that Ukrainian forces have liberated over 100 square miles (260 square km) along the southern axis since the beginning of the counter-offensive in June. While Ukrainian progress remains slow, Russian forces continue to strengthen their defences in the south in anticipation of further Ukrainian breakthroughs. UK Defence Intelligence reported on 18 September that over the last two weeks Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army, defending the Zaporizhzhia front, has likely been reinforced by VDV airborne units. At least five VDV regiments from the 7th and 76th divisions are likely now concentrated near Robotyne. At full strength they would represent around 10,000 ‘elite’ paratroopers, though these units are likely undermanned and will not represent the elite force they once were during the initial phases of the 2022 invasion. Aside from reinforcements, Russian forces are also augmenting fixed defences in the area, which UK Defence Intelligence reported on 17 September includes the construction of additional checkpoints, ‘hedgehog’ anti-tank defences and trench networks around the town of Tokmak, which sits 14 miles (22km) south of the Ukrainian frontline. Such efforts indicate growing Russian concerns that Ukraine’s tactical advances around Robotyne and Verbove could yet translate into a wider breakthrough in the coming weeks.
STRIKES: On the night of 18 September, Russia launched a large-scale strike campaign, including 24 drones and 17 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles. Ukraine’s air defences reportedly intercepted 18 drones and all the missiles targeting Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi and Poltava oblasts. Ukraine’s Air Force spokesperson, Yuriy Ihnat, reported that Russia deployed an unprecedented number of aircraft to launch the latest missile strike. Ihnat also explained that Russia’s strategy to launch drones from different directions remains a challenge for Ukrainian air defences, which were unable to intercept all of the drones. The strike comes after Russia launched six Shahed-136/131 drones and ten Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles targeting the Odesa region on 17 September. According to Ukraine’s Air Force, air defences intercepted all of the drones and six missiles; the remaining projectiles reportedly hit agriculture infrastructure in the region.
STRIKES: On 17 September, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that its air defences intercepted drones targeting Crimea, Oryol and Moscow regions as well as the Belgorod and Voronezh border regions. The strikes led to a temporary shutdown of three airports in Moscow and hit an oil depot in the Oryol region. The latest drone strike illustrates Ukraine’s ability to simultaneously target Crimea and several Russian regions. In an interview with the Economist on 17 September, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR), Kyrylo Budanov, stated that Ukraine’s drone attacks aim to achieve three primary objectives: degrading Russia’s air defences, disabling military transport and bombers and damaging defence production facilities. Budanov added that drone attacks against Russia also serve a psychological role by provoking collective fear amongst the population and disrupting Russia’s economy. Budanov also stated that Ukraine is preparing to retaliate against Russia’s winter strike campaign, indicating that Ukraine likely has the resources to continue launching drone operations against Russia for the foreseeable future, with tit-for-tat attacks on like-for-like infrastructure likely over the winter.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

GOVERNMENT: Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers announced on 18 September that all six deputy defence ministers and the country’s state secretary for defence had been dismissed in a further overhaul of the defence ministry. Hanna Maliar, Volodymyr Havrylov, Rostyslav Zamlynskyi, Denys Sharapov, Andriy Shevchenko and Vitaliy Deineha were dismissed as deputy defence ministers, while state secretary for the defence ministry Kostiantyn Vashchenko was also dismissed. Unspecified ‘high-ranking sources’ in the Ukrainian government told news outlet Ukrainska Pravda that all of the deputy defence ministers resigned voluntarily at the request of Rustem Umerov, the recently-appointed minister of defence (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 4 September 2023). The ministers will not return to their positions and consultations are allegedly underway to fill their vacancies. A source close to the Ministry of Defence (MoD) stated that a ‘complete overhaul’ of the ministry is taking place, which is highly likely influenced by corruption scandals surrounding the MoD during former defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov’s tenure. The apparent reshuffle is likely aimed at giving the impression of a completely fresh start within the ministry under Umerov’s leadership in a bid to remove potentially corrupt elements of the MoD.
BULGARIA: On 18 September, the Bulgarian Ministry of Defence (MoD) stated that it had deployed a special unit to inspect and dispose of a drone reportedly carrying explosives. It had either landed or washed ashore in the village of Tyulenovo (Dobrich province) on 17 September. Tyulenevo is situated on Bulgaria’s north-eastern Black Sea coast, approximately 18.6 miles (30km) from Romania’s southern border, though much further from Ukraine’s Danube River ports which have been heavily targeted in Russian strikes. The Mayor of Shabla (part of Dobrich province) stated that the drone appeared to be ‘one of those used in the war in Ukraine’. Although this cannot be confirmed, it is the most likely scenario. It also remains unclear whether the drone was airborne immediately before landing in the village or whether the drone was downed closer to the theatre of conflict before being washed ashore, though the latter is more likely. The incident highlights the spillover risks facing the coastlines of Black Sea littoral states and their tourism and oil and gas sectors, with floating mines also posing a threat which is likely to persist for years to come. For further analysis on Russian drone debris being found on Romanian territory and NATO’s response.
WAGNER GROUP: On 15 September, the UK officially proscribed Wagner Group as a terrorist organisation. The order entered into force with immediate effect and will make belonging to the private military company (PMC), or actively supporting the mercenary force, a criminal offence in the UK. This reportedly includes arranging meetings to further its activities, expressing support for its aims and displaying Wagner Group’s flag or logo. Those found guilty of such actions could face fines and/or imprisonment for up to 14 years. However, the legislation is likely regarded to have come too late, given Wagner’s co-founders, Dmitry Utkin and Yevgeny Prigozhin, were killed in a plane crash in Russia in late August and the Russian MoD is actively attempting to take over its operations in Africa and the Middle East. Their demise will likely have reduced the appeal or influence of the mercenary force among individuals within the UK, though this was likely minimal in any case. Ultimately, the designation modestly raises compliance risks for UK companies operating in countries with an active Wagner Group presence, particularly those in the mining sector. It remains unclear how far London will go in enforcing sanctions on African governments that continue to use Wagner services, but it sets a precedent that could realistically see other Western states, including the US, follow suit.

FORECAST

NORTH KOREA: Russian news agencies reported on 17 September that North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un departed the country after a week-long visit to Russia, during which he met with President Vladimir Putin. North Korean state news agency KCNA reported that Kim visited several military, economy, science, education and culture facilities in Vladivostok (Primorsky krai) in the last two days of his official trip. On 16 September, Kim inspected Russia’s nuclear-capable bombers, hypersonic missiles and a warship from its Pacific fleet. Following their meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome (Amur oblast) on 13 September, Putin implied that Russia would help North Korea launch its own satellites. However, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov claimed on 15 September that the two sides did not sign any agreements, including on military-technical co-operation, nor did they plan to. While it remains a realistic possibility that the two heads of state made closed-door agreements, such as for Pyongyang to provide military aid to Moscow for use in Ukraine, it is unclear what specifically was agreed or discussed between the two sides.

Ukraine’s National Resistance Centre reported on 17 September that Russia plans to bring North Korean workers to occupied regions of eastern Ukraine. It claimed that Putin allegedly persuaded Kim to open North Korean diplomatic missions in Donetsk and Luhansk to facilitate North Korean workers being sent to Russian-occupied territories for assistance in construction projects. The centre claimed this indicates Moscow lacks sufficient labour manpower within Russia, or the ability to recruit Central Asian labour migrants, for such projects. While the veracity of the report cannot be confirmed, in 2017 it was estimated that approximately 30,000 North Koreans were employed in Russia, though often in ‘slave-like conditions’. If North Korean labour migrants are indeed sent to occupied regions of Ukraine, this will likely raise concerns over human rights abuses and further Western sanctions against Moscow and Pyongyang will highly likely follow. Moscow is likely cognizant of the threat of additional sanctions, and as such the two countries are unlikely to publicly acknowledge any given deal on labour or military co-operation.

Bulgaria: Drone discovery on Black Sea coast highlights spillover risks from conflict in Ukraine. On 18 September, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) stated that it had deployed a special unit to inspect and dispose of a drone reportedly carrying explosives which landed in the village of Tyulenovo (Dobrich province) on 17 September. Tyulenevo is located around 18.6 miles (30km) south of the Romanian border on Bulgaria’s north-east Black Sea coast. The mayor of Shabla (Dobrich province) stated that the drone appeared to be ‘one of those used in the war in Ukraine’. Although this claim cannot be verified, it is the most likely scenario. It also remains unclear whether the drone was airborne immediately before landing in the village or whether the drone was downed closer to the theatre of conflict before being washed ashore, though the latter is more likely. The incident highlights the spillover risks facing the coastlines of Black Sea littoral states and their tourism and oil and gas sectors, with sea mines also posing a lasting threat over the long term. (Source: Sibylline)

21 Sep 23. The Netherlands Is Once Again Purchasing Equipment and Weapons for Ukraine with Partners. The Netherlands, Denmark and the Czech Republic will supply Ukraine with weapons, vehicles, tanks, air defense equipment and ammunition in the coming months. The Czech arms industry will supply the equipment. The three defense ministers announced this yesterday in a joint statement. They did this during a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) in Ramstein, Germany.

The new initiative focuses mainly on equipment that the Ukrainian army needs most and can be delivered urgently. This also concerns items that Ukrainian soldiers are already used to working with. The first donation resulting from the initiative concerns 15 modernized T-72EA main battle tanks. They will go to the war-torn country at short notice.

Similar initiatives

The Netherlands is also already participating in initiatives that provide Ukraine with modern battle tanks. For example, our country, together with Denmark, is purchasing 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks that will probably be delivered next year. The Netherlands previously purchased Leopard-1 tanks with Germany and Denmark.

UDCG

During the UDCG, Defense Ministers from more than 50 countries discuss coordination for military support to Ukraine. Commander of the Armed Forces General Onno Eichelsheim was there yesterday on behalf of Minister Kajsa Ollongren. She made an appearance in The Hague for Budget Day. (Unofficial translation by Defense-Aerospace.com) (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Netherlands Ministry of Defense)

21 Sep 23. Austin Assures Zelenskyy of American Support for Ukraine. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that the United States will work with allies and partners to ensure Ukraine has the capabilities it needs to defeat Russian aggression, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said during a news conference today.

Austin and Zelenskyy met at the Pentagon earlier in the day.

Austin updated the Ukrainian leader on the security assistance the United States is providing. Austin highlighted “his personal commitment and involvement and working with international leaders on that front,” Ryder said. “There was also an opportunity to discuss Ukraine’s longer term capability requirements and how to support them in the future in terms of deterring Russia.”

Ryder was asked about the Polish decision to suspend arms shipments to Ukraine. “It’s a sovereign decision for any country to decide what level of support that they’re going to provide,” the general said. “I will highlight, however, that Poland has been one of the leading countries when it comes to providing security assistance to Ukraine, and not only security assistance but also in terms of providing significant humanitarian aid and support for more than a million displaced Ukrainians who have gone to Poland as a result of Russia’s unprovoked invasion.”

Support for Ukraine is still strong, Ryder said, pointing to the recent Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base, Germany. More than 50 countries participated in that meeting and “unity and resolve is still very strong within the international community,” he said. “We still see very strong international support across the board.”

In the U.S. Congress, Ryder said, bipartisan support for Ukraine is still strong. He noted that Austin and Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, went to Congress yesterday to brief the elected representatives on the situation in Ukraine and efforts to help the nations.

“We will continue to work very closely with Congress to ensure they have the information they need to make informed decisions,” Ryder said.

Some surveys show a softening of support for arming Ukraine in the general American public. “I think it’s important again, to re-emphasize why Ukraine matters,” he said. “In addition to helping our Ukrainian partners to defend themselves from unprovoked aggression, the implications not only on European security but also on U.S. and international security are very stark.”

If Russia succeeds in conquering Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin won’t stop there, Ryder said. “You only have to look at other gray zone efforts in places like Moldova, Belarus, Georgia and other places to see that if they can get away with subsuming or invading other nations — to include threatening NATO nations — they will.”

He has no doubt that Chinese leaders are watching and seeing how the United States and the international community have rallied and responded in support of Ukraine. “So, there’s definitely a deterrent effect there as well,” Ryder said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

21 Sep 23. Biden Meets With Ukraine President, as U.S. Sends $325m Arms Package. The U.S. today announced it will send an additional security assistance package for Ukraine valued at up to $325m as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy concluded his second visit to Washington since Russia launched its unprovoked invasion.

The package includes additional air defense equipment, artillery rounds, antitank weapons and other equipment to meet Ukraine’s urgent needs on the battlefield to counter Russia’s ongoing war of aggression.

President Joe Biden unveiled the aid package after meeting with Zelenskyy at the White House.

“We’re committed to help Ukraine build a force capable of ensuring Ukraine’s long-term security, capable of deterring future threats against sovereignty, territorial integrity and freedom, which are underway now,” Biden said. “Because that’s what this is all about — the future, the future of freedom. America can never, will never walk away from that.”

The latest round of assistance marks the 47th drawdown of equipment from Defense Department inventories for Ukraine since August 2021 and reflects the United States’ enduring commitment in the face of Russian aggression.

Zelenskyy’s meeting with Biden capped the Ukrainian president’s daylong tour through Washington, which also included discussions with lawmakers on Capitol Hill and a meeting with defense officials at the Pentagon.

In his remarks ahead of the closed-door meeting at the White House, Zelenskyy said that he came to Washington to “strengthen Ukraine’s position to defend our children, our families, our homes, freedom and democracy in the world.”

“It’s good that our countries are really, truly allies,” he said before expressing his appreciation for the “vital assistance provided by the United States to Ukraine to combat Russia terrorism.”

Earlier in the day, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III reaffirmed the United States’ unwavering support for Ukraine during his meeting with the Ukrainian president at the Pentagon.

The two discussed the outcome of the most recent meeting of more than 50 countries at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Germany earlier this week. Austin also provided Zelenskyy with an update on U.S. security assistance to meet Ukraine’s most urgent battlefield needs.

“The secretary gave his personal commitment to work with our allies and partners to ensure they have what they need,” said Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder.

Describing the meeting as warm and engaging, Ryder said it also provided them with an opportunity to discuss Ukraine’s longer term capability requirements “and how to support them in the future in terms of deterring Russia.”

Following the discussion, Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s first lady, Olena Zelenska, joined Austin and Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, for a wreath laying ceremony at the National 9/11 Pentagon Memorial.

“It was very clear that President Zelenskyy very much appreciates the support that the United States, the people of the United States have provided to Ukraine,” Ryder said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

21 Sep 23. Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine. As President Biden just announced, the Department of Defense is sending an additional security assistance package to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration’s forty-seventh tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This package includes additional capabilities to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses as it faces brutal aerial assaults from Russia, dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICM) which are helping Ukraine on the battlefield, anti-tank weapons, and other equipment to meet Ukraine’s critical needs and to help Ukraine counter Russia’s ongoing war of aggression.

The capabilities in this package, valued at up to $325 million, include:

AIM-9M missiles for air defense;
Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
Avenger air defense systems;
.50 caliber machine guns to counter Unmanned Aerial Systems;
155mm artillery rounds, including DPICM;
105mm artillery rounds;
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
Over 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition;
59 light tactical vehicles;
Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
Spare parts, maintenance, and other field equipment.

This security assistance package will utilize assistance previously authorized under Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) for Ukraine that remained after the PDA revaluation process concluded in June as well as assistance under a new PDA.

The United States will continue to work with its Allies and partners to provide Ukraine with capabilities to meet its immediate battlefield needs and longer-term security assistance requirements. (Source: U.S. DoD)

21 Sep 23. Russia pulls landing ships from Crimea, Ukraine says. The Russian Navy has removed all its large landing ships from ports in occupied Crimea, Ukraine’s Operational Command South spokesperson Natalia Humeniuk told Ukrainian TV broadcasters on Sept. 21.

According to her, the Russian naval group continues to maneuver in the Black Sea to the east of the Crimean Peninsula, closer to Russia’s Novorossiysk.

“By the way, the large amphibious ships have already been relocated to purely Russian bases, they no longer trust the Crimean bases,” said Humeniuk.

“We also do not register any [cruise] missile carriers on combat duty.”

In just the past week, Ukraine has inflicted several successful strikes on the Russian targets in Crimea. On Sept. 13, a Russian submarine and landing ship were severely damaged in a drydock in Sevastopol Bay.

On Sept. 14, according to NV’s source in the SBU, Ukrainian forces destroyed a cutting-edge Russian S-400 Triumf air defense system, using Ukrainian-made Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles, which have been modified to be used against ground targets.

On Sept. 20, another combined missile and drone strike targeted a Russian Black Sea Fleet command center near Sevastopol.

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21 Sep 23. Cardboard Drone Maker Retools Software Based on Ukraine War Hacks. Ukrainian soldiers have received hundreds of drones, gifted to them by Australia, to capture surveillance video crucial for preparing missions to retake ground from Russian forces. The data comes from GoPro cameras strung from holes punched into disposable cardboard drones. This cheap method of scoping out targets is made possible by SYPAQ’s Corvo Precision Payload Delivery System, which can travel more than 100 kilometers, carry three kilograms of payload, and land within about two meters of its intended landing spot.

“It’s actually designed for a blood bag,”

explained Michael Partridge, SYPAQ’s general manager.

SYPAQ created the Corvo Precision Payload Delivery System in 2018, in response to an innovation challenge from the Australian Army to build a low-observable, low-cost drone to deliver resupply goods to remote operators.

The company decided to go with cardboard, which is both cheap and doesn’t catch the attention of enemy radar systems.

The drone’s design features a two-meter wingspan with minimal avionics and a motor module, and a payload bay with a cover that lifts up so the receiver can retrieve the blood bag, repair part, ammunition, radio or whatever else was sent their way.

The drone, which starts out as a flat sheet of cardboard and folds up to take its shape, can then be discarded in the field.

The COVID-19 pandemic put a pause on SYPAQ and the Australian Defence Force’s testing and development of the aircraft. But then two years later,

“along came the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the Australian government was looking for something they could gift, and they wanted something that was ready to go and didn’t have long lead times,” Partridge said.

“They knew of this because we’ve codeveloped it with them, so we struck a deal and we’ve delivered just over 600 vehicles into Ukraine, and they’re using them quite well,” he added.

The company, based in Melbourne, says there are potential customers in the Middle East that want to buy the Corvo PPDS as a cheap test asset for carrying sensors. Similarly, Australian forces have used it as a dummy for radar system performance checks and calibration.

But Partridge said the Ukrainians’ heavy use of the drone for more complex missions has provided significant feedback that the company us using to improve the mission planning system, user interface and ground control station for the whole family of Corvo drones.

“The Ukrainians are using it certain ways. The most effective way we’re hearing about is they’re literally cutting holes in the bottom and putting GoPros on 10-second timers” to film a short clip when the unmanned systems reach the turnaround point that’s pre-programmed into their GPS. This helps make the drones even harder to detect, as there’s no datalink streaming the video back or receiving navigation instructions.

“They’ve got active imagery that’s 30 minutes old, for a very cost-effective way of doing that,” Partridge said.

The filming tactics require more precise mission planning, however, with Ukrainian officials sending feature requests directly to the manufacturer.

While elements of the control software may change as a result, the cardboard construction is here to stay, Partridge said.

he said, adding that the cardboard material can even fly in light rain and in humid maritime environments without collapsing.

Three weeks ago, the company released a heavy-lift version that has a greater wingspan and carries six kilograms. And two weeks ago, the company unveiled quadcopter variants that resemble the Chinese-made DJI drones that the U.S. and Australia have banned from their militaries.

SYPAQ is working with United Kingdom-based Tanglewood Group to make the drones available on the market in Europe and the Middle East. (Source: UAS VISION/Defense News)

21 Sep 23. Poland will stop sending weapons to Ukraine amid grain row. Poland said Wednesday it will no longer arm Ukraine and instead focus on its own defence, as the two allies clashed at a key moment in Kyiv’s fightback against Russia’s invasion.

In a mounting row over grain exports from Ukraine, Poland summoned the Ukrainian ambassador to protest remarks at the United Nations by President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The Ukrainian leader said some countries were only pretending to support his nation as it wages a counteroffensive to retake land taken by Russia. Warsaw took offence at this.

Poland has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters after Russia invaded in February 2022, and is one of Kyiv’s main weapons suppliers.

Much of the weaponry that the United States and other countries send to Ukraine passes through Poland, which borders Ukraine to the west.

Poland also hosts some one million Ukrainian refugees, who have benefited from various kinds of state aid.

Tensions between Warsaw and Kyiv were sparked by a Polish ban on Ukrainian grain imports, with the goal of protecting its own farmers.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki was asked Wednesday if his country would continue to back Kyiv, despite this dispute.

“We are no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine, because we are now arming Poland with more modern weapons,” Mr Morawiecki said.

EU transit route

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has closed off Black Sea shipping lanes used before the war, resulting in the EU becoming a major transit route and export destination for Ukrainian grain.

In May, the EU agreed to restrict exports to Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, seeking to protect farmers there who blamed the shipments for a slump in prices on local markets.

The measures allowed the products to keep transiting through the five countries, but stopped them being sold on the local market.

But on Friday, the European Commission said it was ending the import ban, arguing that “the market distortions in the five member states bordering Ukraine have disappeared”.

Poland, Hungary and Slovakia immediately announced they would defy the move.

French Foreign Minister Catherina Colonna, speaking with AFP at the UN, said Poland’s decision to ban Ukraine’s grain was unjustified.

“These tensions are regrettable,” Ms Colonna told AFP in an interview on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

Citing an EU study, she said that Ukrainian grain imports would not disrupt the market or cripple European farmers.

“There is no market upheaval and there are perhaps internal political considerations on the part of some of our partners which, unfortunately, pushes them to have this position that nothing justifies,” the minister said.

The grain issue is particularly sensitive in Poland, where elections take place next month.

The current populist right-wing government of the Law and Justice party has strong support in farming regions.

“We were the first to do a lot for Ukraine and that’s why we expect for them to understand our interests,” Mr Morawiecki told Polsat News on Wednesday.

“Of course we respect all of their problems, but for us, the interests of our farmers are the most important thing.”

Kyiv responded to warnings by Poland, Hungary and Slovakia by announcing that it would lodge a complaint with the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Mr Morawiecki had warned earlier on Wednesday that he would extend the list of Ukrainian products banned from import if Kyiv were to escalate the grain dispute.

A foreign ministry statement said that “putting pressure on Poland in multilateral forums or sending complaints to international courts are not appropriate methods to resolve differences between our countries.”

Kyiv responded by calling on Poland to “leave emotion aside” after it had summoned its ambassador, urging Warsaw to adopt a “constructive” approach in the dispute. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

21 Sep 23. Ukrainian armoured vehicles cross Russia’s main defensive line. Ukraine’s armoured vehicles appear to have punched through Russia’s main defensive line of mines, barriers and trenches on the southern front. Footage suggests Marder and Stryker vehicles, both of which are used by the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, have pushed through the Surovikin Line west of Verbove in Zaporizhzhia. Infantry has already been used to clear trenches in the region, but the presence of Ukrainian armour suggests Kyiv has made it past anti-tank defences and is exploiting gaps in Russian lines. Geolocated footage last month confirmed the 82nd Brigade infantry had breached the defences installed by Sergey Surovikin, the former commander of Russia’s invasion. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

20 Sep 23. Ukraine war inspires weapons that crack battle tanks at weakest point. Western companies are developing weapons aimed at cracking battle tanks from the top, their weakest point, or that can rain down thousands of metal fragments on dug-in infantry from falling drones.

The novelties come as arms manufacturers tune their lineups to the immediate experience of the brutal, close-range fighting in Ukraine, a trend on display at the DSEI defense trade show held last week in London.

Germany’s Rheinmetall, for example, is reviving a Cold War concept of bouncing mines in its proposed Area Defence Weapon. The system, which resembles a small beer keg sitting on radial stabilizers, uses a combination of sensors to verify that a tank is passing by only to launch itself into the air and drill a 155-millimeter artillery munition into the vehicle’s topside on the way down.

The company said the weapon, ready for use in a few years, could be used in combination with traditional anti-tank mines, where the ADW munition goes after mine-clearing vehicles to keep adversaries’ armored columns from advancing through mined areas.

The re-emergence of mine warfare brings to mind the situation on the frontlines of Ukraine’s defense against Russia, described in a recent Washington Post report as the world’s most mine-contaminated piece of land.

Rheinmetall, for its part, doesn’t refer to the Area Defence Weapon as a mine because the units can be turned off remotely or be programmed to let friendly forces through, with a human operator involved in the process of arming the system.

“Battlefield barriers, and anti-tank mines in particular, have been taken out of commission by NATO forces almost completely since the end of the Cold War,” a company representative explained. “The re-building of that capability is currently the subject of analyses and concepts.”

Meanwhile, Finnish company Insta is throwing its Steel Eagle shrapnel-throwing drone into the ring for meeting a Ukrainian need for killing large numbers of foot soldiers on the open battlefield with fewer scarce munitions fired as they repel Russian invaders and take back territory.

The quadcopter drone carries a fragmentation charge, which notably started its developmental life as a bouncy mine à la ADW, over infantry positions, shredding fighters with 3,000 projectiles so forceful they even penetrate thin armor, according to the company.

Steel Eagle can spray an area as large as a third of a soccer pitch with enough fragments that every square meter will get an average of one-and-a-half projectiles. The drone can also programmed to fall down to a low altitude right before exploding for a denser spray, Tuure Lehtoranta, a vice president at Insta’s defense unit, told Defense News.

Ukrainian officials have been pleading with Western allies for controversial cluster munitions that deal a similar effect, with the United States agreeing this summer to deliver some of the Pentagon’s old stocks.

According to videos circulated on social media, frontline troops have used drones to drop grenades on Russian soldiers, an effect that Lehtoranta said is too “pointed” for the kind of mass punch envisioned by Ukrainian commanders.

The company says its primary target is equipping its home forces of Finland with the Steel Eagle capability.

“There is interest not limited to Finland,” the executive said. (Source: Defense News)

20 Sep 23. Poland has escalated its rhetoric against Ukraine beyond a trade dispute over grain, with president Andrzej Duda comparing the war-torn country to a drowning person clinging to their rescuer and endangering their life. “Ukraine is behaving like a drowning person clinging to anything available,” Duda told Polish journalists in New York on Tuesday. “A drowning person is extremely dangerous, capable of pulling you down to the depths . . . simply drown the rescuer.” The president’s unflattering remarks came after Poland led a coalition of central and eastern European countries that extended unilateral curbs on imports of Ukrainian foodstuffs despite the EU agreeing to lift them on Friday. “We have the right to defend ourselves against harm being done to us,” Duda said. The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party’s rhetoric has grown increasingly bellicose ahead of parliamentary elections on October 15. The rightwing party of Jarosław Kaczyński, once an unflinching Kyiv ally, has seen its support erode, particularly among rural voters who are feeling let down by Warsaw. During the campaign, PiS has pledged to safeguard Polish sovereignty and promoted farm protectionism — a clear U-turn after it spearheaded western efforts last year to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian aggression. Warsaw also initially favoured the move by the EU to lift tariffs on Ukrainian grain following Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022 and welcomed millions of refugees fleeing the war. Janusz Kowalski, Poland’s deputy agriculture minister, told the Financial Times that Ukraine should consider “the whole picture” and be more aware of growing refugee fatigue in Poland, which has helped boost support for the far-right Confederation party. Confederation is attacking the government for being too generous to Ukrainians who settled in Poland. “The Ukrainians are doing things that are against their interest, like for example to fight with Poland and try to convince the European Union to open our market,” Kowalski said. “When we look at the whole picture, not only agriculture, it is not in their interest because the crisis of Polish agriculture will lead to the erosion of social support to help Ukraine.” Warsaw is now unlikely to extend the current level of support granted to about 1mn Ukrainian refugees beyond 2024. “These regulations will simply expire next year,” Polish government spokesperson Piotr Müller said on Monday.

Daniel Szeligowski, senior research fellow at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, said Poland’s change of tack on Ukraine was a matter of self-preservation. “Poland’s government will continue to support Ukraine but it won’t shoot itself in the foot.” After large farmer protests this spring in response to a grain glut on local markets, the Polish government changed tack and unilaterally introduced an import ban. The EU later agreed to temporarily back the import restrictions, which were meant to ensure that Ukrainian grain transits through Poland on its way to international markets. Kyiv has threatened to retaliate with its own import ban on Polish agricultural products, in addition to a complaint at the World Trade Organization. Recommended Aleks Szczerbiak Election battle offers no easy path to power for Poland’s opposition Poland’s prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Wednesday that Warsaw was also ready to extend its list of banned imports. “I am warning the Ukrainian authorities, because if they escalate the conflict in this way, we will add more products,” Morawiecki told Polsat news channel. Brussels lifted EU curbs last week and Kyiv has pledged to enforce stricter export controls to make sure they are not having a negative impact on neighbouring EU countries. Still, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia refused to lift the restrictions. The grain dispute is also playing a role in the election campaign in Slovakia, where the nationalist Smer party of former prime minister Robert Fico, who does not want to give further aid to Ukraine, is leading in polls ahead of the September 30 vote. Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned on Tuesday that the feud would play into Russia’s hands. “Alarmingly, some in Europe play out solidarity in a political theatre — turning grain into a thriller,” he wrote on social media platform X. “They may seem to play their own roles. In fact they’re helping set the stage for a Moscow actor.” (Source: FT.com)

20 Sep 23. New UK defense chief pledges more air-defense, strike weapons for Kyiv. Air defense and long-range strike weapons are on the U.K. government’s priority list for supply to Ukraine, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said on Wednesday. In a statement issued on the sidelines of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein air base in Germany on Sept 20, Britain’s new defense chief said the equipment would be delivered to Kyiv over the coming months, though he provided few details. The announcement that additional air-defense capabilities were on their way followed a plea 24 hours earlier by his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd Austin, urging allies to “dig deep” to increase the supply of weapons to counter Russia’s continuing aerial bombardment of Ukraine. The Ramstein meeting brings together ministers and senior officials from nearly 50 nations to coordinate international support for Ukraine. Britain has already supplied hundreds of air-defense weapons to the Ukraine, including Starstreak and AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles. Long-range strike weapon deliveries from the British include Storm Shadow cruise missiles and M270 multiple launch rocket systems.

Shapps, who made his first appearance at the Ramstein meeting since taking over as defence secretary from Ben Wallace late last month, said the list of capabilities destined for Ukraine in the coming months would also include artillery ammunition, training and maintenance and repair. The British recently completed the delivery their 300,00th artillery round to Ukraine since the conflict with Russia started.

“Today we’ve demonstrated the UK’s unwavering commitment to Ukraine and set out more military support, including pledging tens of thousands more artillery shells to enable Ukraine to defend itself against Russia’s unprovoked invasion,” Shapps said.

Support of British military vehicles in service in Ukraine is also of growing importance.

In July British defense contractor Babcock was awarded a contract by the UK MoD to support urgent operational requirements for Ukraine’s military vehicle assets as part of London’s support for the country.

The initial 12-month contract is worth around £50 million ($62 million) and will see Babcock support British-supplied armored vehicles to the Ukrainian military, including Challenger 2 tanks.

The company recently signed a cooperation agreement with Ukrainian state defense concern Ukroboronprom to study opportunities for implementing joint defense projects locally.

Late last month BAE Systems revealed it was doing something similar with exploration of possible local production of 105mm light guns. (Source: Defense News)

19 Sep 23. US-Made Tanks Poised to Make Debut in Ukraine, Add to ‘Steady Progress.’ Ukraine’s efforts to break through Russia’s defensive lines could soon benefit from some long-awaited firepower — some 31 U.S.-made M1 Abrams tanks first promised in January.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced the impending delivery of the U.S. tanks Tuesday during a meeting of some 50 nations in the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Germany on Tuesday, noting the coalition “continues to move heaven and earth to get Ukraine what it needs right now.”

“That will add another formidable armor capability to join the [German-made Leopard tanks] that are already on the battlefield,” he added.

Speaking separately, a defense official told reporters traveling with the secretary that the U.S. tanks are already in Europe and will begin crossing into Ukraine in the coming days. Ukrainian forces began training on the M1 Abrams tanks in June, and U.S. military officials told VOA earlier this month that about 200 Ukrainian soldiers were continuing to train in Germany to maintain proficiency until the tanks are ready for delivery.

U.S. defense officials had previously said the M1 Abrams tanks would be delivered by the fall.

Ammunition

In addition to the tanks, the U.S. has also been providing Ukraine with depleted uranium ammunition for the M1 Abrams — armor-piercing rounds that were designed to destroy Soviet-made tanks, like the ones Russia has deployed to the front lines in Ukraine.

And perhaps just as importantly, U.S. defense officials say they have mechanisms in place to help Ukraine keep the tanks on the battlefield.

“We’ve built a much more fulsome sustainment structure to hand over to the Ukrainians,” said Douglas Bush, the U.S. Army’s acting assistant secretary for acquisition, logistics and technology.

“We’ve done all we can do to set conditions for the support structure in Europe to where we will be able to flow them repair parts and then help them with battle damage repair and things like that,” Bush told reporters Tuesday, speaking from the Pentagon. “They’re getting … a lot more spare parts.”

Bush also sought to downplay concerns about maintaining the M1 Abrams tanks, viewed as one of the more complicated capabilities shared so far with Ukraine’s military.

“The Ukrainians have been remarkably adept at maintaining Strykers and Bradleys [armored vehicle platforms], for example, via telemaintenance and indirect support from us,” he said. “So, we’re hopeful.”

Other Western officials, including U.S. General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also found reason for hope, despite the relatively slow pace of Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive.

“Ukraine continues to make deliberate, steady progress in liberating their homeland from Russian occupation,” Milley said, speaking alongside Austin during a news conference at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

“To date, Ukraine has liberated over 54% of Russian-occupied Ukraine, and they continue to retain the strategic initiative,” he said.

Russian troops

Milley said Russia still has about 200,000 to 300,000 troops in Ukraine and that many of them “are not extraordinarily well-trained.” He warned that the effort to eject them from Ukrainian territory remains a “tough fight, a hard fight,” but said the Ukrainian military is up for the task, even if it means fighting into the winter months.

“Russia has made one of the greatest strategic errors Russia’s ever made,” Milley said. “They’ve invaded a country that’s been free and independent, and that country’s not going to quit until they, too, are free and independent once again.”

NATO’s top official, likewise, touted Ukraine’s chances. “It is not a stalemate,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told Reuters on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

“The Ukrainians are gaining ground,” he said. “They have gained, pushed back the Russians again and again, and they are continuing to gain ground in the south and east.”

In addition to the imminent delivery of the U.S.-made M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, the U.S. and its allies are set to begin training Ukrainian fighter pilots on U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets that will be donated by the Netherlands, Denmark and Norway.

But there was no talk Tuesday of providing Ukraine with longer-range missiles that Ukrainian officials have been asking for.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other top officials have repeatedly asked for missiles capable of striking key targets behind Russia’s front lines, such as the U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS that can fly up to 306 kilometers.

U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, have said Washington is now actively considering the request. But so far, the White House has balked at giving Ukraine weapons that could be used to strike beyond Ukraine’s legal borders and into Russian territory.

US government shutdown

In addition to some U.S. reticence to provide certain weapons systems, aid to Ukraine could also soon be hampered by a potential U.S. government shutdown.

Pentagon spokesperson Chris Sherwood said in a statement Tuesday, first reported by Politico, that delivery of security assistance to Ukraine “could be impacted by furloughs of personnel and DoD’s suspension” of nonessential activities.

Additionally, Mira Resnick, the State Department’s deputy assistant secretary for regional security, told lawmakers Tuesday that during past government shutdowns, the U.S has been unable to process new licenses or new military sales except in an emergency.

Congress has until October 1 to enact at least short-term spending bills to avoid a partial government shutdown.

Attacks on Lviv

Ukrainian officials said Tuesday that Russian aerial attacks hit the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, killing one person.

Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi said on Telegram the attack struck three warehouses, which stored windows, household chemicals and humanitarian aid.

U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Ukraine Denise Brown condemned the Russian strike, saying one of the warehouses belonged to Caritas, the Vatican’s main charitable organization.

“The vital humanitarian facility, which contained approximately 300 tons of relief supplies, was burned to the ground,” Brown said in a statement. “Attacks impacting humanitarian assets have escalated throughout the year and ultimately impact those who are suffering the horrific consequences of the war.”

Lviv, located near Ukraine’s border with Poland, is a key hub for Western aid entering Ukraine and has been the target of prior Russian attacks.

Ukraine’s military said air defenses destroyed 27 of 30 drones that Russia used in its attacks, with intercepts happening in southern, central and western Ukraine.

The military also said it downed a Russian reconnaissance drone in the eastern part of the country. (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Voice of America News))

20 Sep 23. Estonia, Luxembourg and Ukraine Launch IT Coalition to Support Ukraine. Today in Ramstein at the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (UDCG) meeting, Estonia, Luxembourg and Ukraine launched an IT Coalition, which will support the Ukrainian Defence Forces in the cyber domain in an effort to strengthen Ukraine’s capacity to defend itself.

“The role of information and communication technology in this war is certainly harder to perceive, since the kinetic activities on the front are much more visible. Nevertheless, actions in the cyber domain are significant amplifiers for what happens on the physical battlefield. It is a pleasure and honour for Estonia to be able to put competencies gained as an e-state to good use in supporting Ukraine,” said Minister of Defence Hanno Pevkur.

“The IT Coalition will focus on the delivery of a secure and resilient IT infrastructure for the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine and Defence Forces which enables Ukraine to be more efficient and effective on the battlefield. We are grateful to Estonia and Luxembourg for their leadership in driving this initiative forward. I would also like to thank Belgium, Latvia, Lithuania and Denmark for joining us in this endeavour and to Luxembourg for already announcing the first pledge to the IT Coalition,” said Minister of Defence of Ukraine Rustem Umerov.

In addition to Estonia, Luxembourg and Ukraine, at the IT Coalition launch event Belgium, Lithuania and Denmark also signed the Declaration of Intent. “The objective of the event today was also to provide allies with more information about the coalition in order to involve further states, since joined forces are always stronger. A number of states were interested in the coalition and the goal is to expand the circle of contributing states rapidly,” added Minister of Defence Pevkur.

(Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Estonia Ministry of Defence)

20 Sep 23. Ukraine deploying 1,000s of Lithuanian C-UAS jammers.

“Thousands” of Lithuanian counter-unmanned aircraft systems (C-UASs) are operational with the Ukrainian army, Ivan Sybyriakov, manager of the unmanned systems centre at Ukrainian state-owned SpetsTechnoExport (STE), told Janes. 3The C-UAS solutions in question are the Skywiper Electronic Drone Mitigation 4 – System (EDM4S) and the Skywiper Omni, developed by Lithuanian company NT Service.

The Skywiper EDM4S solution, which disrupts the UAS’s control, video, and global navigation satellite services (GNSS) signals, is considered by the user to be the “best option for the regular soldier” because of its long-range (3–5 km line-of-sight) and relatively light weight (6.5 kg), he said.

He added that price was also an important consideration.

The system can operate for up to 1 hour and disrupts UASs operating on 900 MHz, 2.4 and 5.8 GHz, as well as GNSS L1 1.5 GHz frequency bands. Other custom frequencies can be added depending on the customer and local regulation rules, Sybyriakov said. (Source: Janes)

19 Sep 23. At UN, Zelenskiy tells Russia to stop war so world can fight climate, other crises. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy implored world leaders gathered at the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday to stand united against Russia’s invasion and said Moscow had to be pushed back so the world could turn to solving pressing global challenges.

Zelenskiy drew applause as he took his place at the United Nations General Assembly lectern in New York for his first in-person appearance at the annual UNGA since Russia invaded his country in 2022.

“Ukraine is doing everything to ensure that after Russian aggression, no one in the world will dare to attack any nation,” he said. “Weaponization must be restrained, war crimes must be punished, deported people must come back home and the occupier must return to their own land.”

“We must be united to make it – and we’ll do it.”

He accused Russia of manipulating global food markets to seek international recognition of ownership of land it seized from Kyiv.

In a nod to the Global South, whose support he is seeking in his standoff with Russia, Zelenskiy spoke about the worsening climate crisis and natural disasters, mentioning the recent earthquake in Morocco and floods in Libya.

“We have to stop it. We must act united to defeat the aggressor and focus all our capabilities and energy on addressing these challenges,” he told the General Assembly.

Earlier on Tuesday, Ukrainian officials said nine people were killed in Russian attacks, including a drone strike that set ablaze industrial warehouses.

Zelenskiy accused Russia of kidnapping Ukrainian children.

In March, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin on suspicion of illegally deporting children from Ukraine. The Kremlin rejects the accusations and the court’s jurisdiction.

“Those children in Russia are taught to hate Ukraine and all ties with their families are broken. And this is clearly a genocide when hatred is weaponized against one nation,” Zelenskiy said.

Last year, Zelenskiy presented a 10-point plan that included restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, and the restoration of Ukraine’s state borders.

He said he was now working towards a peace summit based on that: “Tomorrow I will present the details at a special meeting of the U.N. Security Council.” (Source: Reuters)

19 Sep 23. Air Defense Remains Top Priority at Meeting on Ukraine Defense. During today’s meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base Germany, continued air defense support to Ukraine was a top priority, said the secretary of defense.

“At today’s meeting, I urged allies and partners to dig deep and donate whatever air defense munitions they can, as Ukraine heads into another winter of war,” said Lloyd J. Austin III at the meeting’s conclusion.

The fifteenth meeting of the group was also the first time that new Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov was in attendance, Austin said. “I want to thank him for being here.”

Air defense, Austin said, remains critical to the success Ukraine has already experienced on the battlefield.

“Air defense will continue to be Ukraine’s greatest need to protect the skies, its civilians, and its cities — as well as innocent people far away from the battlefield,” he said.

So far, Austin said, the U.S. and partner nations have provided to Ukraine air defense systems, such as the Patriot; Hawk; IRIS-T; National/Norwegian Advanced Surface to Air Missile System, or NASAMS; and Gepards.

“These air defense capabilities are protecting Ukraine’s forces, its civilians, and its critical infrastructure,” he said.

Austin also highlighted other materiel support the U.S. and partners in the UDCG have provided to help Ukraine in its fight to reclaim its sovereignty over territory occupied by Russian forces since their illegal invasion in February 2022.

U.S.-made M-1 tanks, he said, will soon arrive in Ukraine, and will likely operate alongside Germany-provided Leopard tanks already in country. Also, Austin said, collective training for Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 fighter jet is beginning. The Netherlands, Denmark and Norway have announced their intent to donate F-16 fighter aircraft to Ukraine.

Poland, Austin said, has provided Ukraine with additional mine-clearing equipment and more than 100 armored personnel carriers, in addition to tens of thousands of munitions; Sweden last month announced a military aid package consisting of ammunition and spare parts worth more than $300 m. And yesterday, Austin said, Germany announced a $420 m package with ammunition and mine-clearing equipment and other critical capabilities.

Denmark also recently announced an $833 m package including ammunition and armored capabilities, Austin said.

“This coalition of like-minded countries continues to move heaven and earth to get Ukraine what it needs right now and over the long haul,” Austin said. “We’ve also ramped up our industrial base to support the demand, and we won’t let up.”

Austin said during the meeting that he challenged fellow UDCG ministers to look deeper into their stockpiles of 155 mm ammunition and key air defense systems and interceptors to ensure everything possible is being done to assist Ukraine.

“Our long-term support for Ukraine will continue to evolve through dedicated capability coalitions like the ones that we started for armor and F-16 training and information technology,” he said. “These important coalitions will help Ukraine continue to build up a combat-credible force for the future.”

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark A. Milley also attended the meeting. It will be Milley’s last contact group meeting before his retirement.

“My tenure may be ending, but the mission for this group continues until the end-state of a free and sovereign Ukraine is attained,” Milley said. “This group’s success hinges not on any single individual, but on the unified commitment and the values of all of our collective nations. The end goal remains crystal clear: Support Ukraine until Putin’s unwarranted, illegal and ruinous war of choice comes to an end. Our commitment to Ukraine as a free, independent and sovereign nation with its territory intact remains as ironclad as ever.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

20 Sep 23. Ukraine rejects defective lot of German tanks in second embarrassment for Berlin. Serious technical issues also beset previous consignment of Leopard 1s delivered in Kyiv rejected a delivery of Leopard tanks from Germany after discovering that they were defective.

Ten Leopard 1 tanks, the predecessor to the more sophisticated Leopard 2, required maintenance that Kyiv could not perform because of a lack of trained engineers, Germany’s Der Spiegel reported. As a result, Kyiv said, it had no use for them.

The Ukrainian army noticed the defects upon receiving the tanks in the southern Polish city of Rzeszów.

After sending its own technicians to inspect the vehicles, Berlin conceded that they weren’t working properly and would need further repairs before being sent to the front line.

The situation is embarrassing for Germany, not least because it is the second time that technical problems have arisen with its tanks.

The most recent consignment is the second lot of a supply of 110 Leopard 1s from Germany. Ukraine reported serious technical issues with the first 10 tanks delivered in July.

Ukrainian soldiers were intensively trained on Leopard 1s during the spring when Germany also sent a consignment of Leopard 2s.

It’s not clear if problems with the hardware had been caused by this wear and tear, but they will nevertheless raise questions about Germany’s ability to supply Ukraine at each critical stage of its counter-offensive.

Berlin reportedly prioritised training tank crews over training technicians skilled in repairs, at Kyiv’s request.

Military experts warned earlier this year that establishing effective logistics lines and technical training would be paramount for keeping the equipment running.

First developed in the 1960s, the Leopard 1 received its last update in the 1990s and was decommissioned by the German army a decade ago.

Kyiv had repeatedly pressured Germany to send them Leopard 2s, saying that they were vital for punching through Russian defensive lines. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

20 Sep 23. Ukraine strikes fuel depot near Russian resort city airport. Ukraine struck a fuel depot in a likely drone attack near the airport of Russia’s Black Sea resort city of Sochi. Images from the scene showed huge tanks on fire, while videos showed a big column of smoke rising over the city. Witnesses said before the fire broke out, explosions were heard. It came as Russia struck the Kremenchuk oil refinery in the central Poltava region of Ukraine in an overnight drone attack, causing another fire. Veniamin Kondratyev, governor of the Krasnodar region, said preliminary information indicated that there were no casualties in the Sochi duel depot attack. Alexei Kopaigorodskyi, the city’s mayor, said the airport and entire transport system were operating as normal. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

20 Sep 23. America’s ‘lacklustre’ Ukrainian response is a symptom of longer standing issues. Despite committing more than US$100bn (AU$155.5bn) in aid to Ukraine, the materiel response of the United States has raised questions about the capacity of the once great industrial power to truly resist in the era of great power competition.

Often likened to Hitler’s annexation of Austria or the Czech Sudetenland in the immediate years preceding the dictator’s invasion of Poland in 1939, which formally kicked off the Second World War (despite Imperial Japan’s invasion of Manchuria in 1931), no matter what way you look at it, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has the potential to fundamentally reshape the global balance of power.

Like the island democracy of Taiwan, the vast, grass steppes of Ukraine have become one of the dual epicentres of global geopolitical competition and great power competition between the United States-led world order and the newly emerging Russo/Chinese-led world order.

However, more than 18 months into the devastating conflict, with momentum stalling on both sides, questions are beginning to surface about the capacity of the United States to continue its materiel and financial support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s impressive leadership and defiance in the face of Putin’s invasion.

This uncomfortable reality is reinforced by comments made by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on 22 December 2022, in which he highlighted concerns about the capacity of the United States to directly deter and engage a competing great power: “When it comes to Russia’s war against Ukraine, if we were still in Afghanistan, it would have, I think, made much more complicated the support that we’ve been able to give and that others have been able to give Ukraine to resist and push back against the Russian aggression.”

Secretary Blinken’s concerning statements were equally reinforced by US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, who, in a testimony before the US House armed services committee, said, “If there was a war on the Korean peninsula or great power war between the United States and Russia or the United States and China, the consumption rates would be off the charts … So I’m concerned. I know the secretary is … we’ve got a ways to go to make sure our stockpiles are prepared for the real contingencies.”

For Kori Schake, director of foreign and defence policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, in a piece for The Atlantic, titled, Ukraine Isn’t the Reason the U.S. Is Unprepared for War, all of this means one thing: “A lack of defence production has created an alarming gap between America’s strategy and its capabilities”. (Source: Defence Connect)

20 Sep 23. Ukraine launches drone attacks on Belgorod, Oryol regions – Russia’s defence ministry. Russia’s air defence systems destroyed Ukraine-launched drones over the Belgorod and Oryol regions late on Monday, the Russian defence ministry said, with local officials saying that there was no destruction or casualties.

The ministry, in posts on the Telegram messaging platform, said that two drones were destroyed over the Oryol region in Russia’s southwest and one over the Belgorod region, which border with Ukraine.

Governors of both of the regions said there was no destruction or casualties. Reuters could not independently verify the reports. There was no immediate comment from Ukraine.

In recent months, drone and missile attacks deep into Russia and on Russian-controlled territory have increased significantly, with Moscow blaming Kyiv for the strikes.

Ukraine seldom comments on the attacks, but it has said that destroying Russia’s military infrastructure far away from the front lines undermines Moscow’s war efforts and helps Kyiv’s ongoing counteroffensive to reclaim land Russia has occupied. (Source: Reuters)

19 Sep 23. Defence Secretary pledges tens of thousands of more artillery shells for Ukraine. The UK has delivered over 300,000 artillery shells to Ukraine and is committed to delivering tens of thousands more artillery shells this year, the Defence Secretary announced today.

The UK has delivered its 300,000th artillery shell to Ukraine, and has committed to delivering tens of thousands more this year.
Comes as the Defence Secretary and Chief of the Defence Staff joined representatives from 50 nations to urge further support.
The Defence Secretary outlined the UK’s priority areas of military support for the coming months, including air defence and long-range strike capabilities.

The UK has delivered over 300,000 artillery shells to Ukraine and is committed to delivering tens of thousands more artillery shells this year, the Defence Secretary announced today, as he hailed the unity of partners and allies in delivering military support to Ukraine.

The Defence Secretary attended the 15th meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (UDCG) today at the US Air Force base in Ramstein, Germany, alongside Chief of the Defence Staff (CDS), Admiral Sir Tony Radakin. The UDCG brings together ministers and senior officials from nearly 50 nations to coordinate international support for Ukraine.

During the meeting, both the Defence Secretary and CDS emphasised the UK’s unwavering commitment to providing vital munitions to help Ukraine defend itself, having recently completed delivery of the 300,000th artillery shell to Ukraine.

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said: “Today we’ve demonstrated the UK’s unwavering commitment to Ukraine and set out more military support, including pledging tens of thousands more artillery shells to enable Ukraine to defend itself against Russia’s unprovoked invasion and to retake illegally occupied territories. To ensure Ukraine has what it needs to defend itself as we approach winter, we have also set out how the UK will go further in the coming months in our priority support areas, including air defence and long-range strike capabilities, and training.”

The meeting provided an opportunity for the Defence Secretary to meet the new Defence Minister of Ukraine, Rustem Umerov, for the first time.

He also held a bilateral meeting with the US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, to discuss shared security interests and ongoing work to align international defence industrial output and optimise supply chains to ensure a steady and increased flow of munitions to Ukraine.

The Defence Secretary outlined priority areas for support in the coming months, including air defence to protect Ukraine’s critical national infrastructure during the winter, further artillery ammunition, and support to help Ukraine sustain the capabilities already provided – including to recover and repair equipment used in its counter-offensive.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff, said: “With representatives from 50 nations gathered in Ramstein today, President Putin should be worried. This is a tangible demonstration of the international community’s continued resolve to back Ukraine with the military support it requires through the winter and into 2024. The United Kingdom will continue to work with our allies and partners to help build Ukraine’s long-term resilience so it can fulfil its potential as a secure and prosperous sovereign nation.”

The UK is committed to standing with Ukraine for as long as it takes to defend itself against Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion. The UK is one of the leading providers of military support for Ukraine, having provided £2.3 bn worth in 2022 and having committed to maintain that support in 2023. It was the first country to donate modern main battle tanks as well as training Ukrainian tank crews in the UK and delivering them within 11 weeks of announcement.

The Royal Air Force will also work as part of a wider international effort to train the next generation of Ukraine’s combat pilots, who will fly the fourth-generation fighter jets being provided by Allies.

To date, the UK has supplied more than 12,000 anti-tank weapons, 300,000 rounds of artillery ammunition, thousands of air defence missiles, self-propelled artillery, and more than 200,000 pieces of non-lethal equipment, including extreme cold weather clothing, mine detection equipment, and industrial strength generators. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

19 Sep 23. The US’s top defence official on Tuesday downplayed Ukraine’s requests for longer-range missiles but pledged to meet Kyiv’s “most urgent” air-defence needs, just days before President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to ask for more military aid from Washington. US defence secretary Lloyd Austin said the Biden administration was focused on beefing up support for Ukraine’s war effort, but remained cool on providing Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), long-range warheads that can strike longer distances. Austin said he would not “endeavour to evaluate” Kyiv’s requests for the missile systems, but said the US was more focused on “what Ukraine’s most urgent needs are”. The comments from the US defence secretary come as the Biden administration wrestles with its strategy to keep arming Ukraine for its war effort against Russian occupying forces, but without giving Kyiv weapons that could be used to strike Russian territory. Ukraine has asked for ATACMS for months, but the US has been concerned about depleting its own stocks amid rising tensions with China over Taiwan. Another decision from President Joe Biden on whether to provide Ukraine with ATACMS could come as soon as this week. Speaking at the Ramstein air base in Germany during a gathering of about 50 countries assisting Kyiv’s war effort, Austin pressed the allies to “dig deep” to provide additional air defence assets amid the continuing bombardment by Russia of military and civilian targets across Ukraine. “We’ve done a credible job of getting some air defence capability but there’s much more work to be done,” Austin said. “I have every belief they will go back and dig a bit deeper.” General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reiterated the message, saying Ukraine’s top priorities were to secure more air defence, artillery and armour. Russia still had 200,000 to 300,000 troops in Ukraine, many of them conscripts, Milley said. Ukrainian forces were not intending to pause fighting this winter, but muddy conditions could stall operations until the ground freezes, he added.

“The Ukrainians have penetrated several layers of this defence,” the US general said. “It is not 100 per cent penetrated yet, but they penetrated several of the layers and they’re going very slow, preserving their combat power and very deliberately through this defensive belt that stretches the entire length and breadth of Russian occupied Ukraine. “For Ukraine to militarily eject those two or 300,000 Russian troops that are still there, that’s a tough fight . . . there’s a lot left to go. This fight is not yet over.” Zelenskyy is scheduled to visit Washington on Thursday, where he will make his case for more support to US Congress just as it debates whether to extend more funding for Kyiv’s war effort. Zelenskyy will also meet Biden and visit the Pentagon. Austin and Milley will hold a classified briefing on Biden’s $24bn request for additional Ukraine aid for the full Senate on Wednesday. Some Republican members of Congress have become more sceptical about the Ukrainian president’s pleas for support and have criticised the continued US funding of Kyiv’s war effort. (Source: FT.com)

19 Sep 23. Historically Large Danish Donation to Secure More Tanks for Ukraine. Through international cooperation, Denmark will provide military support for DKK 5.8bn to Ukraine. The donation package will include, among other things, 15 modernized T-72 tanks for Ukraine in cooperation with the Netherlands and the Czech Republic.

Subject to the Finance Committee’s final approval, Denmark will donate 15 modernized T-72 tanks to Ukraine, together with a large amount of ammunition for the tanks. The donation is financed via the latest donation package of DKK 5.8 bn, which Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen informed his Defense Minister colleagues about at the meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group today.

“It is a very comprehensive donation package that Denmark plans to contribute. The 5.8bn kroner will, among other things, go towards donating 15 modernized T-72 tanks, which Ukrainians already have experience using. It is therefore a donation that the Ukrainians can use in a short time in their defense struggle,” says Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen.

The donation package has come about on the basis of, among other things, cooperation with the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, and the three countries, in connection with signing a declaration of intent on joint cooperation, were able to lift the veil on the fact that, among other things, it has resulted in a Danish contribution to the donation of 15 modernized T-72 tanks.

Efforts are being made to ensure that the cooperation between the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and Denmark can soon be extended to several types of weapons, ammunition and equipment that can be donated to Ukraine in the short term.

In addition, Denmark will strengthen cooperation with Germany regarding the donation of Leopard tanks. Thus, the plan is to donate a further 30 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine in addition to the 80 tanks that Denmark and Germany are already delivering. Furthermore, Denmark and Germany plan to jointly finance the production and delivery of a large amount of ammunition for the tanks. Denmark also plans to contribute to the financing of a maintenance center for donated Leopard 2 tanks.

“I am proud and happy that there is still broad support among the parties in the Danish Parliament for supporting Ukraine. It is absolutely essential that we continue to support the Ukrainians with heavy equipment and ammunition. With the planned donations, Denmark and our allies show that we stand together in support of the Ukrainian defense struggle and that we are prepared to support Ukraine in the long run,” says Troels Lund Poulsen.

Denmark also donates a number of weapons, ammunition and other equipment from the Defense’s holdings, which are in high demand by Ukraine, e.g. for use in their current offensive. This concerns, among other things, pistols, hand grenades, 40mm grenade launchers with ammunition, demining hoses and thermal binoculars as well as camouflage nets. In addition, 10 Forward Areomedical Evacuation Kits are donated, which can be used to transport wounded soldiers in Ukrainian helicopters.

The planned donations require the Finance Committee’s final approval.

(Unofficial translation by Defense-Aerospace.com) (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Danish Ministry of Defence)

13 Sep 23. Cardboard drone vendor retools software based on Ukraine war hacks. Ukrainian soldiers have received hundreds of drones, gifted to them by Australia, to capture surveillance video crucial for preparing missions to retake ground from Russian forces.

The data comes from GoPro cameras strung from holes punched into disposable cardboard drones.

This cheap method of scoping out targets is made possible by SYPAQ’s Corvo Precision Payload Delivery System, which can travel more than 100 kilometers, carry three kilograms of payload, and land within about two meters of its intended landing spot.

“It’s actually designed for a blood bag,” explained Michael Partridge, SYPAQ’s general manager.

The company decided to go with cardboard, which is both cheap and doesn’t catch the attention of enemy radar systems.

The drone, which starts out as a flat sheet of cardboard and folds up to take its shape, can then be discarded in the field.

The COVID-19 pandemic put a pause on SYPAQ and the Australian Defence Force’s testing and development of the aircraft. But then two years later, “along came the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the Australian government was looking for something they could gift, and they wanted something that was ready to go and didn’t have long lead times,” Partridge said.

“They knew of this because we’ve codeveloped it with them, so we struck a deal and we’ve delivered just over 600 vehicles into Ukraine, and they’re using them quite well,” he added.

“They’ve got active imagery that’s 30 minutes old, for a very cost-effective way of doing that,” Partridge said.

The filming tactics require more precise mission planning, however, with Ukrainian officials sending feature requests directly to the manufacturer.

While elements of the control software may change as a result, the cardboard construction is here to stay, Partridge said.

“The cardboard is a cost driver, so that’s exactly what it does, but it also does a very, very good job of enabling the platform. So when you talk about improvements, it’s going to be really hard to find something at a [lower cost-point] that still works,” he said, adding that the cardboard material can even fly in light rain and in humid maritime environments without collapsing.

SYPAQ is working with United Kingdom-based Tanglewood Group to make the drones available on the market in Europe and the Middle East. (Source: Defense News)

18 Sep 23. Russia’s Drone Industry Hits Serious Turbulence. Russia’s war against Ukraine has challenged its military’s approach to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and the Russian industrial base that supports the development and production of UAVs. According to open-source intelligence, Russia lost about 300 reconnaissance and combat drones as confirmed by photo or video evidence from February 24 to September 13.

These included, among others, 183 Orlan-10 reconnaissance UAVs and their modifications, 38 Eleron reconnaissance UAVs, 38 Zala UAVs, six Orion UAVs and six Forpost high-wing reconnaissance UAVs (Oryxspioenkop.com, accessed September 13).

The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces estimates that Russia has lost a total of 4,650 drones of various types since the beginning of the war (Kyiv Independent, September 13). This total includes a significant number of the Russian-made Lancet and Iranian-made Shahed loitering munitions, commonly referred to as “kamikaze drones.” This estimate may be low as it is unclear how many drones Russia has lost in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

It is also unclear how many commercial drones, such as the DJI Mavic and others, have been lost. These particular drones have been largely supplied by Russia’s regional administrations and Russian volunteers (Nikkei Asia, July 1). The Russian military possessed more than 2,000 UAVs, excluding loitering munitions, on the eve of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which signals significant losses for its reconnaissance and combat drone fleet (Kremlin.ru, November 2, 2021).

On June 28, the Russian government approved the “Development Strategy for Unmanned Aviation Until 2030” (Government.ru, June 28). The document claims that, between 2018 and 2022, Russia’s public institutions and state-owned companies spent more than 13bn rubles (over $190m) to purchase UAVs. The Ministry of Defense and Russia’s various law enforcement agencies received around 30 percent of these procurements, totaling about 3.9bn rubles ($57m).

These numbers do not account for spending on the research and development (R&D) of new drones, which could be quite high. For example, in 2020, the costs to develop Russia’s first heavy-strike combat drone, the S-70 Okhotnik, exceeded 1.5bn rubles ($21m) (Izvestiya, June 4, 2020).

The document primarily lays out the basic scenario for future development and production in Russia’s drone industry. It presumes the need for 330,000 employees working in R&D and production by 2026, one m by 2030 and 1.5 m by 2035. The planned number of drones to be produced in 2023–2026 stands at 52,100, with the average annual production rate exceeding 13,000; 105,500 in 2027–2030, with the average annual rate exceeding 26,000; and 177,700 in 2031–2035, with the average annual production rate exceeding 35,500 (Government.ru, June 28).

The projected numbers for drone industry employees are rather unrealistic. The projected production rates signals that the Russian government does not plan to create a Russian counterpart to the Chinese company DJI, which sells millions of small consumer drones every year. The Russian government believes that its drone industry can produce much more sophisticated civilian and military UAVs. This means that Moscow will likely follow the development model that first appeared at the beginning of the 2010s (TASS, February 6).

The government invests more money in drones. More state-owned companies become engaged in the R&D and production of drones, relying on imported components and industrial equipment. Projects for new UAVs begin to proliferate. And the need for more investment from the government starts the cycle anew.

However, Moscow’s existing deficit of adequate financial sources, technologies, equipment and human capital hurt its ambitions. And these deficits coupled with Russia being cut-off from industrial cooperation with many developed countries due to Western sanctions make this model non-sustainable in terms of material outcomes.

Serial manufacturing of the S-70 Okhotnik was scheduled for 2023. It has now been delayed until 2025 (Ura.ru, May 18, 2022; TASS, April 25). Serial production of the long-endurance heavy Altius drone was close to beginning more than year ago, but it has made little progress since (RBC.ru, June 13, 2022). The primary problem lies in the absence of sufficient engines, as the original plan was based on using German-made RED A03 diesel engines.

Russia is currently developing two alternatives to the German engine. The first one is the turboprop VK-800SM developed by ODK-Klimov. However, the engine is not scheduled to receive official certification until the end of 2024. And the serial production of 30 engines annually will not begin until 2025 (Take-off.ru, April 6).

The second option is the APD-500 piston engine. The engine is being developed by the Russian state-owned Central Institute of Aviation Motors together with the Central Scientific Research Automobile and Automotive Engines Institute (NAMI) (Ciam.ru, October 14, 2021). Its specifications are comparable to the RED A03 engine, but APD-500 uses gasoline instead of diesel. The APD-500 was derived from the car engine that was developed by NAMI in cooperation with Porsche during the 2010s. That means it is inevitably dependent on imported components. It is unclear if Russia will be capable of starting serial production of the APD-500 on its own.

The same problem is true for the medium-class Orion reconnaissance/combat UAV. The Central Institute of Aviation Motors in Moscow together with GMZ Agat are developing the APD-100/120 piston engine (Aviatp.ru, accessed September 14). The ADP-100/120 is meant to be a counterpart to the Austrian-made Rotax 914 piston engine, which was originally used in the Orion UAVs. However, the dry mass of the APD-100/120 is 96 kilograms compared to 74.7 kilograms for the Rotax 914 with all its support systems. Moreover, 50 critical components relating to the APD-100/120’s fuel system still come from abroad.

The turbulence in Russia’s drone industry will continue, if not grow, in the coming years. For Moscow, it will become increasingly more difficult to manage all the issues related to drone manufacturing, especially in the military sector. Revising its ambitions is, nevertheless, politically unacceptable for the Kremlin. Consequently, the Russian Armed Forces will become ever-more dependent on small consumer-grade drones for reconnaissance tasks and relatively simple loitering munitions for combat operations. (Source: UAS VISION/The Jamestown Foundation)

18 Sep 23. Ukraine removes deputy defence ministers after new minister’s appointment. The Ukrainian government dismissed six deputy defence ministers on Monday following the appointment of a new defence minister earlier this month. The government gave no reason for the dismissals, but such moves are common after a new minister’s appointment. Those removed included Hanna Maliar, who frequently issues public updates on Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Rustem Umerov became defence minister less than two weeks ago, replacing Oleksii Reznikov. The ministry had been dogged by media allegations of corruption while Reznikov was in the post although he faced no corruption allegations himself.

“Rebooting. We (have) started. We continue. (The) Ministry continues to work as usual,” Umerov said in a Facebook post.

The Ukrainska Pravda news site quoted unnamed government sources as saying all the deputy ministers had resigned voluntarily following a request by Umerov and would not be returning to their posts.

It said consultations were under way on candidates to replace them, and quoted a source close to the ministry as saying “a complete overhaul is underway” at the ministry.

Umerov has said his priorities include making the ministry the main institution for coordinating Ukrainian defence forces, enhancing the value attached to individual soldiers, developing Ukraine’s military industry and fighting corruption.

Maliar, a war crimes lawyer, had served as a deputy defence minister since 2021 and her latest update on the war in Ukraine appeared on Monday morning.

She faced criticism last week after initially reporting that Ukrainian forces had recaptured an eastern village from Russian forces, but later saying her report was inaccurate and that fighting was still raging around the village. Its capture was then announced by the military the next day, but Russia has since denied losing control of the village. (Source: Reuters)

18 Sep 23. Russia’s Navy Has A Dry Dock Problem. Again. Five years ago, a massive floating dry dock near the Russian Arctic port of Murmansk accidentally sank and nearly took the flagship of the Russian Navy, the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, with it. It was a major headache for Russia’s Navy: The dry dock, called the FD-50, was one of the only ones capable of servicing massive ships like the Kuznetsov or the battlecruiser Pyotr Veliky. The next closest was nearly 10,000 kilometers east in the Pacific region of Primorye. Despite plans to raise it, the dock remains at the bottom of the Barents Sea harbor.

Now Russia has another dry dock problem in the home port of the Black Sea fleet: Sevastopol, the naval port on the occupied-Crimean Peninsula.

Two adjacent docks at the Sevmorzavod repair facility were hit, reportedly with British-supplied cruise missiles, on September 13, damaging at least two ships under repairs, including a submarine.

The aftermath of Ukraine’s strike on the docks of Sevastopol, showing the proximity of one of the damaged buildings to the impact site.

It’s unclear whether the attack — the largest on the Russian fleet base since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022 — damaged only the two ships or the dry docks themselves.

Either way, experts say, Black Sea naval capabilities are likely seriously curtailed for the foreseeable future. There are no comparable facilities capable of conducting major repair works on Russian naval ships anywhere else in the Black Sea.

“While the specific strike will have an impact on [Black Sea Fleet] operations, the larger impact is cumulative,” said Dmitry Gorenburg, a research scientist who focuses on the Russian military at the Center for Naval Analyses, a think-tank near Washington, D.C. “Overall, I see Russia’s control over the Black Sea slipping gradually.”

Thord Are Iversen, a Norwegian defense analyst and former Royal Norwegian Navy officer, said the docks themselves seem to have to only sustained superficial damage.

“Dry docks are hard targets, difficult to inflict heavy damage to. The main challenge will likely be to clear the wreckage,” he said.

‘Now A Barn Rather Than A Factory’

Since seizing and occupying Crimea in 2014, Russia has expanded its military footprint on the peninsula, building up garrisons and air defenses. It’s invested heavily in infrastructure in Sevastopol, a historic naval port that previously housed both the Russian and Ukrainian Black Sea navies.

With its annexation, Russia seized the few remaining ships belonging to the Ukrainian Navy that were housed at Sevastopol. Other Ukrainian ships were either scuttled, sunk, or seized elsewhere around the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

With its dominance of the Black Sea, Russia used its navy to transfer personnel and equipment to Crimea and elsewhere. More significantly, it used ships to bombard Ukrainian cities and military forces with cruise missiles.

On April 14, 2022, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, the guided missile cruiser Moskva, was hit and sunk west of Crimea, south of the port of Odesa. Ukrainian officials later said modified Neptune anti-ship missiles had been used in the attack, a major embarrassment for the Russian Navy.

Estimates of the death toll among sailors ranged from a couple dozen to hundreds; a week after the incident, Russia’s Defense Ministry said one sailor had died and 27 were missing, figures that many experts concluded were implausible.

Russian surface ships and submarines have continued to play a role in the ongoing war, mainly firing missiles at land targets but also shadowing Ukrainian cargo ships used to ship grain to world markets.

At the same time, with the help of bns of dollars in Western weaponry and equipment, Ukraine’s armed forces have gradually built up their arsenals including artillery and rocket systems, kamikaze drones that function like mini-missiles, and longer-range missiles.

That includes air-launched cruise missiles from Britain — called Storm Shadows — and a French variant called SCALP.

In the early morning of September 13, Ukraine targeted the Sevastopol port facilities, including the Sevmorzavod repair facility, with a barrage of 10 cruise missiles. At least 24 people were wounded in the Sevastopol attack, according to local Russian administrators.

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed its air-defense systems downed seven missiles. It also said three unmanned maritime drones had attacked the patrol ship Vasily Bykov off of Crimea but the ship had destroyed the drones.

Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, said two ships on two adjacent dry docks at Sevmorzavod — a landing ship called the Minsk and a Kilo-class diesel submarine called the Rostov-on-Don — had been destroyed.

The claims could not be independently verified.

However, satellite imagery released over the following days showed the two damaged ships. Naval experts said the Minsk appeared to have been heavily damaged, possibly rendered inoperable. The Rostov-On-Don, one of four cruise-missile capable submarines in the Black Sea fleet, also sustained major damage.

The Russian Defense Ministry, meanwhile, said the ships will be fully restored and “will continue to serve in combat as part of their fleets.”

Experts said the evidence was less clear about whether the dry docks were damaged. But it will take considerable time to remove the damaged ships — possibly months. The bigger question now is whether other Russian ships, specifically submarines, can be serviced and repaired.

The Russians “have nowhere to repair damaged ships,” Natalya Humenyuk, a spokesman for Ukraine’s southern military command, said in post on Telegram, because the repair facility now resembles “a barn rather than a factory.”

“Long term, depending on how long it takes to get the docks attacked back in operation, the impact on maintenance could prove significant,” Iversen told RFE/RL. “Delays in maintenance could consign ship and subs to port, making them unavailable for operations and vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.”

There are a limited number of other floating docks in Crimea, as well as in other Crimean ports like Kerch and Feodosiya. But experts said those all lack the specialized infrastructure needed to do complicated repairs, on submarines or many naval ships.

In Novorossiysk, for example, a major oil and gas port located about 500 kilometers east of Sevastopol, there are no facilities for servicing specific naval ships like submarines.

“Future Ukrainian strikes could add to the maintenance problems. If they inflict damage to key facilities in Sevastopol it could turn critical, and the Russians have no easy ways out of this situation,” Iversen said. “Retrofitting another yard to take over from Sevastopol will take time — time a Black Sea fleet at war does not have.”

Ukraine’s military intelligence agency on September 11 announced that its forces had recaptured several offshore oil and gas drilling platforms known informally as Boyko Towers. Russian forces have used the strategically located platforms as forward bases and helicopter pads; Russia was also believed to have installed radar installations and missile systems on the platforms.

The willingness of Ukraine to use air-launched cruise missiles to target Russian facilities and air defenses in Crimea, plus seizing the oil-and-gas platforms, highlights “a steady deterioration” of the Russian Black fleet’s ability to protect itself, Gorenburg said.

“Russian ships are increasingly vulnerable in port in Sevastopol,” he told RFE/RL. “Repairs are difficult when your dry docks can be attacked.”

Either way, Ukraine expects to be able to conduct more attacks on Russian ships, Digital Transformation Minister Mykhaylo Fedorov said on September 15.

“There will be more drones, more attacks, and fewer Russian ships. That’s for sure,” he told Reuters.

(Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty)

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