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06 Sep 23. US considering long-range fires for Ukraine, State Dept. official says. The Biden administration is “closely considering” providing long-range fires and other capabilities to Ukraine, a State Department official overseeing arms transfers said.
“We do need to continue to take a very close and deliberate look at what it is Ukraine needs,” Laura Cressey, director of regional security and arms transfers at the State Department’s political-military affairs bureau, said Wednesday at the Defense News Conference in Arlington, Va.
“There’s been a lot of talk about F-16s, a lot of talk about long-range fires,” she said. “All of those the U.S. government is very closely considering, but it takes a lot in terms of training.”
The U.S. can’t provide “whatever is the hot topic at the moment,” Cressey said. “We need to take a close look at the conditions on the battlefield, the absorptive capacity of the Ukrainians themselves, the training.”
“This is not just the United States that is providing Ukraine the capabilities,” said Cressey. “This is a coalition of over 50 countries and it’s significant. Other countries are not gap filling. They’re providing significant materiel whether you’re looking at air and missile defense, modern fighters, armor, the like.”
Cressey and Mike Miller, the deputy director of the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency, expressed hope that Congress will continue appropriating funds to arm Ukraine.
“The support of the U.S. Congress in this effort has been remarkable,” Miller said during a panel discussion, pointing to presidential drawdown authority to provide weapons from U.S. stockpiles, longer-term aid contracted out through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, foreign military financing grants and authorizations for multiyear procurement of munitions.
Congress has passed $61 bn worth of military aid for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion. The White House in August asked Congress for an additional $13 bn in Ukraine military aid via a supplemental spending request. Most senators, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., support the request but House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., has ruled out additional Ukraine aid amid growing opposition from the right-flank of his caucus.
An August CNN-SSRS poll found 55% of U.S. voters oppose additional aid for Ukraine. The poll found 71% of Republicans oppose additional Ukraine aid while 62% of Democrats favor more assistance for Kyiv.
Reversing course on F-16s
Pro-Ukraine Republicans in Congress have pressured the Biden administration to send Kyiv long-range capabilities like Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, as requested by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy – so far to no avail. President Joe Biden did reverse course on providing F-16s to Ukraine in August, authorizing training for Ukrainian pilots who will fly jets provided by Denmark and the Netherlands.
A provision in the House’s fiscal 2024 defense policy bill would require the Pentagon to build the Lockheed-made ballistic missiles for Kyiv via the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. Britain has also provided long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine.
Estonia’s No. 2 defense official, Defense Ministry Permanent Secretary Kusti Salm, called the Ukraine war “an existential question for NATO” noting “we’re fairly confident” that the U.S. and its European allies can help Kyiv win despite a slow-moving counteroffensive.
“Russia has pushed this into a war of attrition,” said Salm at the conference. “Our job is to send the message that we can out-manufacture you.”
“Our defense has been a self-inducing spiral of declining defense budgets, especially in Europe,” he added “Our job is to turn this around.” (Source: Defense News)
07 Sep 23. A new report published today by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reveals that external threats and related strategic concerns are driving governments to pursue more ambitious cyber strategies. The impact of cyber operations in Ukraine is most visible in Europe but less so in the Middle East or in developing countries.
Cyber Capabilities and National Power: A Net Assessment finds that:
- The impact of cyber operations during the war against Ukraine has been profound as countries are crafting national cyber policies and substantially upgrading their cyber security all over the world;
- World leaders in cyber include Germany and the Netherlands;
- Estonia and Singapore display exemplary practices in cyber security and resilience;
- The UAE and Saudi are strengthening their cyber defences in the face of serious cyber threats from Iran.
- Turkiye’s aspirations in cyber remain within the strategic environment, but it does not yet display world-leading strength;
- With few external threats, the push for digitalisation of the economy appears to be a higher priority for Brazil, South Africa and Nigeria than developing their core cyber-intelligence capabilities.
Cyber Capabilities and National Power: A Net Assessment is the second volume in a two-part series that uses an original methodology developed by the IISS to assess national cyber power.
A total of 25 countries are studied across both volumes to illuminate the distribution of cyber power in the world today. This second volume assesses the cyber power of: Brazil, Estonia, Germany, the Netherlands, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, United Arab Emirates, Singapore and Turkiye.
Key assessments:
- The role of the war in Ukraine – the report highlights the profound impact of cyber operations in the war against Ukraine, the substantial upgrades of cyber security in the Persian Gulf, and the challenges for other countries of navigating US-China tensions as they craft national cyber policies.
- The United States remains the world leader in cyber – volume one identified the United States as the only country to merit tier one cyber-power status; none of the ten states reviewed in volume two meet the requirements to qualify for this category.
- Germany and the Netherlands are the strongest cyber powers among the ten countries studied – this is a result of their prominence in aspects of the global digital economy, leadership in global cyberspace affairs and strategic positioning as NATO members and the collective cyberspace capabilities of the European Union. Effective partnerships with other cyber-capable states, including the United States, make up for gaps in core cyber-intelligence capabilities and offensive cyber operations.
- Size matters when it comes to cyber power – while Singapore and Estonia are both significant actors in cyberspace affairs and have implemented exemplary practices in cyber security and resilience, the report finds that Singapore and Estonia cannot be regarded as world leaders given their modest cyber-intelligence capabilities and lack of indigenous ICT industry and personnel.
- UAE and Saudi Arabia have yet to fulfil their potential as cyber powers – despite their use of cyber assets for intelligence, especially in cyber surveillance, neither country currently demonstrates world-class strengths in other categories. Both are strengthening their cyber defences in the face of serious cyber threats from Iran and, given their significant wealth, are well placed to procure foreign cyber services.
- Turkiye’s high aspirations held back by domestic governance – with various strategic concerns driving Turkiye’s strategies for cyberspace, including terrorism, the civil war in Syria, disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean, Cyprus or Ukraine, the country may well aspire to be a cyber power. Yet it is not a world leader in any of the seven categories of cyber power, with its main constraints being in domestic governance.
- An absence of external threats explains low cyber-power aspirations of Brazil, NIgeria and South Africa – all three show low levels of consistency in the digitalisation of the economy and society, with the inevitable impact on cyber capabilities. The push for digitalisation of the economy nonetheless appears to be a higher priority than core cyber-intelligence capabilities.
The IISS methodology for measuring national cyber power differs from the index-based approaches developed by other organisations. It is broader and qualitative, analysing the cyber ecosystem of each state and how it intersects with international security, economic competition and military affairs. As the national circumstances of each state continue to evolve, the national assessments only represent a snapshot in time.
The states are assess in seven categories: strategy and doctrine; governance, command and control, core cyber-intelligence capability, cyber empowerment and dependence; cyber security and resilience, global leadership in cyberspace affairs; offensive cyber capability.
The report categorises selected countries in three tiers of cyber power. The first tier is for states with world-leading strengths. Those with world-leading strengths only in some categories account for tier two. Finally, tier three countries display strengths or potential strengths in some of the categories, but significant weaknesses in others.
06 Sep 23. Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine. Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration’s forty-sixth tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This package includes: additional air defense equipment; artillery munitions; anti-tank weapons, including depleted uranium rounds for previously committed Abrams tanks; and other equipment to help Ukraine counter Russia’s ongoing war of aggression.
The capabilities in this package, valued at up to $175m, include:
- Equipment to support Ukraine’s air defense systems;
- Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
- 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
- 81mm mortars systems and rounds;
- 120mm depleted uranium tank ammunition for Abrams tanks;
- Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
- Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
- Over 3 m rounds of small arms ammunition;
- Tactical air navigation systems;
- Tactical secure communications systems and support equipment;
- Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
- Spare parts, maintenance, and other field equipment.
This security assistance package will utilize assistance previously authorized under Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) for Ukraine that remained after the PDA revaluation process concluded in June.
The United States will continue to work with its Allies and partners to provide Ukraine with capabilities to meet its immediate battlefield needs and longer-term security assistance requirements. (Source: U.S. DoD)
05 Sep 23. Made in Germany – first shipment of new Gepard ammunition now on its way to Ukraine. A first shipment of new ammunition for the Gepard antiaircraft tank is now headed for Ukraine. Per agreement, Rheinmetall AG of Düsseldorf has shipped a first lot of 35mm air defence ammunition as part of German support for Ukraine’s defensive struggle. By the end of this year, 40,000 rounds are to be produced and provided.
In Ukraine the shipments from Germany are eagerly awaited: with its 35mm twin guns, the Gepard has emerged as a decisive factor in the embattled nation’s fight to defend itself. The German government has made 46 of these antiaircraft tanks available, with another six to follow. For Ukraine, they play an essential part in the struggle to control its airspace, having proved highly effective in countering the kamikaze drones Russia uses to attack Ukrainian cities. They are almost permanently in action, making ammunition consumption correspondingly high.
Rheinmetall has long produced much of its ammunition for medium-calibre weapons in Switzerland; now, however, new production capacity for supplying the Gepard systems has been created in Germany, where a multim-euro figure has been invested in plant and equipment.
In February 2023 Boris Pistorius, the German defence minister, announced at a meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group that capacity for producing ammunition for the Gepard would be created in Germany at Rheinmetall. A contract for the rapid delivery of a total of 300,000 rounds of ammunition for the antiaircraft tank had already been signed several days earlier. Owing to the urgency and high political relevance of the project, the pressure to complete the new facility was immense from day one, requiring a true technological and logistical tour de force.
In the words of Rheinmetall AG executive board chairman Armin Papperger,
“We keep our promises. Just six months after signing the contract, we’ve already started delivery, as agreed. My sincere thanks go to the men and women of Rheinmetall who have done so much to make this project a success, even working on weekends. Our subcontractors and vendors deserve praise as well, having helped us to achieve what at first seemed impossible. The pressure to succeed was huge – but so was our commitment to getting the job done. We want to help the people of Ukraine. Every drone that’s shot down saves lives!”
The German government left no stone unturned in its effort to supply Ukraine with fresh ammunition, including abroad – albeit in vain. In Germany stocks of the ammunition had dropped to zero, as the Gepard systems had been retired from service some fifteen years earlier. Other countries declined to make available existing stocks of ammunition, citing either political considerations or constitutional restrictions.
In the end, it was a tightly woven intermeshing of expertise of Rheinmetall technicians and engineers in Switzerland, Germany and Italy that made creating the new production facility possible.
The problem: earlier tools for producing the original ammunition were simply no longer there. The solution turned out to be a mix of reverse engineering and adaptive development quite unlike anything seen before: existing 35mm ammunition from the main armament of an infantry fighting vehicle was modified for use in the Gepard. Making sure that the Gepard fire control unit could reliably recognize the ammunition was a special challenge.
Despite their excellent performance, the electronics and fire control technology of the aging antiaircraft tank – developed in the 1960s – proved to be a veritable black box. At the same time, the supply chain for the new ammunition had to be expanded in order to minimize as far as possible the Swiss value-added share.
As Armin Papperger puts it, “We have an unbeatable strength at Rheinmetall: namely, the broad-based expertise that comes with being a systems house. Whether in ammunition development, mechanical production and materials knowledge, in the development of air defence weaponry, in comprehensive live fire testing, in the design and construction of production facilities – everywhere our experts worked with tremendous drive and great personal commitment to complete the project. They knew how urgently Ukraine needed the ammunition – and the sooner, the better.”
Following multiple tests at the Group’s proving ground at Unterlüss in Lower Saxony, the verification programme was concluded in May 2023 when the ammunition was successfully fired by a Gepard antiaircraft tank.
Meanwhile, at one of Rheinmetall’s civil sector plants in Neuss, an LAAP line was designed and subsequently built at a Group facility in Lanciano, Italy, before being transferred to Unterlüss. LAP stands for loading, assembly and packing, the process in which the cartridges are loaded with propellant; the various parts of the round are put together; and subsequently packaged. The propellant powder comes from Nitrochemie, by the way, another member of the Group.
A total of 40,000 rounds are to be delivered this year. Ukraine will be receiving 150,000 rounds each of two different types of ammunition. One of these is a subcalibre APDS-T munition containing heavy metal penetrators, and thus especially suitable for engaging hardened targets. Rheinmetall is also supplying Ukraine with conventional HEI-T high-explosive incendiary ammunition designed for bringing down typical air defence targets, e.g., aircraft and guided missiles.
01 Sep 23. Russia-led alliance holds military drills in Belarus. More than 2,000 troops from a Russia-led security alliance opened military exercises Friday in parts of Belarus near the borders of NATO countries.
The exercises of the Collective Security Treaty Organization include troops from Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. Armenia is also a member of the CSTO but did not send any of its forces; in January, Armenia said it would not host CSTO drills this year amid tense relations with Russia.
Belarus’ defense ministry said the exercises, which are to last through Wednesday, are to prepare for joint operations, including responses to a nuclear accident.
The exercises are taking place in three western Belarus regions that border NATO members Poland and Lithuania. Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau said the purpose of the military exercises was to destabilize the region.
Belarus late Friday claimed that a Polish military helicopter flew at low altitude about 1200 meters (0.75 miles) into Belarusian airspace in the Grodno region, one of the areas where the exercises are taking place. Polish charge d’affaires Wojciech Filimonowicz was summoned for a complaint, Belarus said.
Belarus hosts Russian forces and equipment that have been used in the war in Ukraine, although Belarusian forces have not taken part. Russia also says it has deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Ukraine’s Joint Forces commander Gen. Serhii Naiev said Ukraine has strengthened its border with Belarus for the exercises. (Source: C4ISR & Networks)
04 Sep 23. International partners must invest now to prepare Ukraine for winter fighting and 2024 operations, reflecting the high likelihood that “major ground combat operations will continue in 2024”.
That’s the conclusion of a major piece of analysis conducted by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and published on 4 September. The full paper can be viewed here.
The report, authored by Dr Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, examines Ukraine’s counteroffensive operations in 2023. It is based on interviews with and observations of Ukrainian military units in 2023.
Noting that Ukraine’s partners must “overcome their habitual sluggishness in doing what they have identified as necessary” to ensure that Ukraine can maintain the initiative into the next fighting season in 2024, Jack and Nick identify the necessary means through which Ukraine’s international partners should be strengthening exist support. This includes:
- Creating a sustainable supply for a consolidated artillery park, focussing on maintaining a more limited range of guns at greater scale.
- Ensuring that the industrial support is available to make the Ukrainian military sustainable.
- Using more algorithmic image analysis via UAVs to map minefields more quickly.
- Providing more bespoke staff officer training, based on observation of how Ukrainian brigade staffs operate and the tools they depend on.
- Better integrating collective training with the training conducted by the Ukrainian military in country.
Jack and Nick conclude that it is now clear that the conflict will protract. It is therefore important that Ukraine’s international partners “invest now to give Ukraine protracted advantages”, noting that “failure to make timely adjustment to support will come at a heavy price in 2024.”
(Source: RUSI)
01 Sep 23. BAE Systems to establish presence in Ukraine to seek partners on 105mm Light Guns. BAE will extend its support for Ukraine and set up an entity in the country to explore local production of the 105mm Light Gun.
BAE announced it has signed an agreement with Ukraine to explore potential for local partners in the production of 105mm Light Guns, as well as an agreement to revitalise Ukraine’s industrial base and work alongside the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to support its future force structure and capability requirements.
“Alongside our government customers, we’ve been discussing with President Zelenskyy and his team how to best evolve the support that we’re already providing to Ukraine,” said Charles Woodburn, chief executive, BAE Systems. “Signing the agreements and establishing a legal entity in Ukraine builds on our existing trust and support and paves the way for us to work together to provide more direct support to the Ukrainian armed forces.”
Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s Minister for Strategic Industry, expressed thanks for the signing of the agreement, and was optimistic about bringing production to Ukraine: “I am grateful to BAE Systems for the bold decision to stand side by side with us in the fight against Russian aggression and building the future of the Ukrainian defence industry. Together with the company, we will be able to localise the production of advanced weapons.
“BAE Systems has already been providing support to the Ukrainian war efforts through training and MRO services,” said Tristan Sauer, aerospace and defence analyst for GlobalData, referencing the support that BAE Systems is currently supplying through its entities in neighbouring Nato countries.
Sauer infers from the agreement signed with the government of Ukraine that BAE Systems has a robust outlook on Ukraine. “The decision by BAE Systems to pursue the production of defence material in collaboration with Ukrainian entities illustrates both a growing level of confidence in the resilience of Ukrainian industrial capacity as well as a tacit understanding that the conflict in Ukraine will continue to drive demand for more ‘conventional’ products such as towed artillery pieces.”
BAE systems manufacture two 105mm Light Gun Systems, the L118 and the L119 versions of the artillery piece. The 105mm Light Gun is a compact, helicopter portable system that can be towed behind light vehicles at high speed over rough ground, according to the manufacturer, and it is versatile in the ammunition type that can be introduced.
Sauer anticipates BAE’s involvement to become broader and deeper than the production of 105mm Light Guns. “As it seeks to expand its offerings in the digital security and unmanned systems markets, continuing to strengthen their relationship with Ukraine may further facilitate efforts to develop and market those products in the medium to long-term as the nation looks to shore up its security measures over the coming decade.”
(Source: army-technology.com)
31 Aug 23. Lockheed Martin Announces European F-16 Training Center in Romania. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) and the governments of Romania and the Netherlands have announced a Letter of Intent to establish the European F-16 Training Center in Romania.
“The F-16 continues to play a crucial role in 21st Century Security missions for the United States, Europe, NATO and allies around the world,” said OJ Sanchez, vice president and general manager, Integrated Fighter Group. “Lockheed Martin is proud to partner with the Netherlands and Romania on this European F-16 Training Center in Romania, which will enhance mission readiness through a comprehensive F-16 training solution for Romanian pilots.”
The center will focus on ensuring effectiveness and safety of Romanians flying and operating F-16 fighter jets and could eventually expand to include training for other nations.
“Once details are finalized, we are confident the training center will ultimately benefit Romania and other regional F-16 operators, including potentially Ukraine,” added Sanchez.
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