NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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• CRIMEA: A spokesperson for Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR), Andriy Yusov, told Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne on 24 August that during the Ukrainian raid at Cape Tarkhanhut earlier on the same day, 30 Russian personnel were killed and four speedboats were damaged. The claims cannot be verified and are disputed by Russian milbloggers, who acknowledge that the amphibious landing took place but allege that the Ukrainian forces filmed themselves raising a flag and departed Crimea for Odesa immediately afterwards. Sibylline previously assessed that the raid was almost certainly designed to coincide with the third Crimea Platform and Ukraine’s Independence Day. Yusov’s claims are likely part of an information operation to fuel Russian concerns over the adequacy of defences on the peninsula. Notably, the raid was followed by a notable Ukrainian drone campaign against Crimea overnight on 24-25 August (see STRIKES).

• BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report

• DONETSK: Nothing significant to report

• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report

• SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage posted on 24 August indicates that Ukrainian forces made marginal gains in southern Robotyne 6 miles (10km) south of Orikhiv, as the counter-offensive continues to make slow, creeping progress in this sector. Russian milbloggers continue to dispute the extent of Ukrainian control over Robotyne. However, at least one milblogger reported that the fighting in Robotyne has now shifted to the ‘southern outskirts’ of the village, while another acknowledged that Ukrainian forces have now entrenched themselves in the settlement. This is further indication that Ukraine is likely to gain full control of Robotyne. On 23 August, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Defence Forces, Natalya Humenyuk reported that the Russian military is deploying additional forces from Kherson oblast to the frontline in Zaporizhzhia oblast, indicating that the attritional fight continues to degrade Russian defences, particularly in western Zaporizhzhia oblast.

• STRIKES: On 25 August, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Defence Forces, Natalya Humenyuk reported that Ukrainian air defences shot down two Russian Kalibr and Kh-35 missiles targeting ports on Odesa oblast. The spokesperson for Ukraine’s air force, Yuriy Ihnat, has also confirmed since the publication of our last report that Russia used two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, one Iskander-K ballistic and S-300 missiles to target Dnipro City on 24 August ( see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 24 August).

• STRIKES: On 25 August, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that 42 Ukrainian drones were intercepted over Russian-annexed Crimea. The MoD specified that air defences shot down nine drones while Russian electronic warfare systems intercepted 33. Although Kyiv has not commented, the latest strike constitutes one of the largest Ukrainian drone strike efforts since the beginning of the war and illustrates Ukraine’s expanding drone capabilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed last week that Ukraine is ramping up drone production, while the head of Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR), Kyrylo Budanov, claimed on 24 August that Ukraine is mass producing naval drones. Meanwhile, in Russia, the Russian MoD claimed that air defences intercepted early on 25 August an S-200 missile over Kaluga oblast, near the city of Obinsk, while Telegram channels reported explosions in Tula oblast.

• AID: On 24 August, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre confirmed earlier media reports that Oslo will supply Ukraine with US-made F-16 fighter jets. Støre did not specify how many jets would be delivered or any particular timeframe, which he stated would be announced in due course. Meanwhile, the German government confirmed on 24 August that it has supplied a new round of military aid to Ukraine, including Patriot missiles, 40 RQ-35 HEIDRUN reconnaissance drones and drone detection systems. The German government is yet to decide whether it will deliver long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

• AID: The Pentagon announced on 24 August that the US will start training Ukrainian pilots to fly and maintain F-16 fighter jets in October. Pentagon Press Secretary Patrick Ryder confirmed that the training programme will commence following English language training for pilots in September. The training will take place at the Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson, Arizona. Ryder did not share specific numbers in relation to how many Ukrainians will participate in the training, but said the Pentagon anticipates it will include several pilots and dozens of ‘maintainers’. On 21 August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Greece will participate in training Ukrainian pilots to operate US-made F-16 aircraft. While further training opportunities for Ukrainian pilots advance Kyiv’s ambitions to utilise the aircraft, the jets are unlikely to be deployed this year.

• CORRUPTION: On 24 August, Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) stated that the first deputy minister of agrarian policy and food and a former state official were charged with abuse of power and embezzlement. The suspects allegedly embezzled UAH 62.5m (USD 1.6m). According to the investigation, the scheme involved the ministry of agriculture official approving the purchase of food products manufactured by a Polish company linked to the former deputy economy minister; the prices of the products were artificially inflated compared to the cost of production and the market prices. The scheme took place between March and August 2022. The case comes after an investigation unveiled that recruitment officials illegally enriched themselves by helping draft-eligible men leave Ukrainian territory. On 11 August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree sacking the head of recruitment offices. Corruption will likely remain pervasive within state structures in the long term, despite Kyiv’s anti-corruption drive.

WAGNER GROUP: On the evening of 24 August, Russian President Vladimir Putin commented on the death of Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin following the fatal plane crash on 23 August. Putin said he had known Prigozhin since the beginning of the 1990s, describing him as a man of ‘complex fate’ who had made ‘serious mistakes’ in life.

Putin nevertheless stated that the mercenary force leader achieved the results he needed, both for himself and in response to the Russian leader’s requests, for a common cause in these ‘last months’.  Putin’s remarks indicate that while Prigozhin had fulfilled his orders, this was not enough to compensate for his ‘serious mistakes’ – almost certainly in reference to the Wagner Group’s mutiny in late June. The uprising laid bare the long-term structural issues and weaknesses in the Russian regime, likely leaving the Russian leader both humiliated and betrayed. On 25 August, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov rejected Western accusations that the Kremlin had ordered Prigozhin’s assassination, likely in an attempt to deflect any such blame for its involvement amid mounting speculation.

The head of Russia’s Investigative Committee has reportedly begun a preliminary investigation into the incident, according to Putin. The Russian leader stated it will be carried out in full and urged to wait for what investigators say in the ‘near future’, but noted technical and genetic expertise takes time. Russian investigators are reportedly exploring the possibility that a bomb was placed in the landing gear bay of the private jet. A Telegram channel that often shares information allegedly from its sources in Russia’s police and military agencies reported on 24 August that a first suspect has been identified – Prigozhin’s personal pilot and the former founding shareholder of the company that owns the crashed aircraft. The individual allegedly had access to the plane and is now wanted by the Russian authorities. However, the veracity of such claims cannot be confirmed.

Unnamed US officials quoted by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on 24 August said that preliminary US government assessments indicate that the plane crashed as a result of an assassination plot. While the officials allegedly stressed that the assessments are incomplete, findings suggest that a bomb exploded on the aircraft or that another form of sabotage downed the aircraft. The report notes that the private jet does not appear to have crashed as a result of a surface-to-air missile following speculation that the plane had been shot down. There is still no official, confirmed reason for why the jet crashed, though competing explanations among Western and Russian sources are likely to continue in the aftermath of the incident. Russian officials will certainly seek to push back against possibilities that the Russian state was involved.

Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service confirmed on 24 August that it had observed a decrease of Wagner Group fighters in Belarus even prior to the plane crash. The service’s spokesperson Andriy Demchenko stated that the presence of the mercenary force may decrease further following Prigozhin’s demise, which we had previously forecasted. However, there is a realistic possibility that trusted, senior Wagner Group fighters could remain in Belarus for training of the Belarusian military.

• CRIMEA: A spokesperson for Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR), Andriy Yusov, claimed earlier on 24 August that the GUR conducted a special operation involving an amphibious landing on the Crimean peninsula. The raid reportedly took place at Cape Tarkhankut, in the west of Crimea, near the village of Mayak, where independent media reported explosions at around 0500hrs (local time). While Yusov gave few details of the reported operation, he claimed that Ukrainian forces engaged in combat with Russian forces. The alleged raid notably came after the GUR claimed that on 23 August Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system in the village of Olenivka, which is also located on Cape Tarkanhut. The Russian Ministry of Defence has not commented on the alleged raid, which raises serious questions over the effectiveness of Russian defences on the peninsula. The reported Ukrainian attacks on Crimea were almost certainly conducted to symbolically coincide with the third meeting of the Crimea Platform (Kyiv’s diplomatic initiative to restore control over Crimea) on 23 August, and Ukraine’s Independence Day, today, 24 August. There is an elevated risk that Russia will launch a strike campaign to coincide with Independence Day.

• BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report

• DONETSK: Nothing significant to report

• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report

• SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage circulated on 23 August showed the Ukrainian flag flying in Robotyne 6 miles (10km) south of Orikhiv, indicating that Ukrainian forces have expanded their control of the settlement. The footage was shared by Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valery Zaluzhnyi, though the Ukrainian General Staff noted only that Ukrainian forces consolidated positions in this sector. At least one Ukrainian source claimed that Ukrainian forces completely liberated the settlement, though this cannot be confirmed. Russian milbloggers continue to report that heavy fighting with Ukrainian forces in Robotyne is ongoing, indicating that they have likely not yet established full control of the settlement, though this eventuality is highly likely.

• STRIKES: On 24 August, a Russian missile struck the city of Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk oblast), damaging transport infrastructure and residential and administrative buildings. The strike will likely cause travel disruption in the city. On 23 August, Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko reported a Russian drone strike struck a school in Sumy oblast, killing four employees. The Dnipro and Sumy strikes underscore the persistent threat that Russia’s strike campaign poses to civilian and critical infrastructure.

• STRIKES: On 23 August, the head of  Ukraine’s GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, stated that following recent strikes against Russian airbases, the number of Russian operational Tu-22M3 strategic bombers has decreased from 31 to 29. On 19 and 21 August, Ukrainian media indicated that drone strikes targeted two Russian military airfields housing Tu-22M3 strategic bombers. While Kyiv did not comment on the strikes, Budanov’s latest statements likely confirm Ukraine’s responsibility. Given that Russia has reportedly been forced to relocate some of its strategic bombers fleet, which will pose logistical challenges to Russia’s Airforce, Budanov’s claims will likely be perceived as a provocation by Moscow and elevate the risk of retaliatory strikes.

• AID: Earlier on 24 August Norwegian media outlets NRK and TV 2 reported, citing unnamed sources, that Oslo has decided to donate an unspecified number of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. If confirmed, it would make Norway the third country to pledge the US-made fighter aircraft, following Denmark and the Netherlands. The report came as Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre was visiting Kyiv to mark Ukraine’s Independence Day. Støre confirmed during the visit that Norway would donate IRIS-T missiles as well as mine-clearing equipment to support Kyiv’s war effort. It is possible that, if the reports are true, it will galvanise additional countries to pledge F-16s to Ukraine. It is also likely that pro-Russian activists will step up cyber attacks against public institutions and private entities in Ukraine in response.

• SANCTIONS: On 24 August, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated that the Western sanctions regime against Russia has failed to undermine Russia’s ‘wartime economy.’ Despite tightening Western restrictions, Russia has reportedly been able to double its military spending in 2023. Furthermore, sanctions-evading networks departing from Moscow’s various economic partners have continued to provide the Russian market with restricted Western goods, including electronics and other components. Despite the EU and US’s threats to step up secondary sanctions, Russia’s partners remain reluctant to comply with the Western sanction regime. However, growing military expenditure and imports, combined with uncertainty over Russia’s exports, have contributed to a sharp decline of the ruble in August and, as such, will represent triggers for further economic deterioration.

WAGNER GROUP: On the evening of 23 August, the leader of the Wagner Group private military company (PMC) Yevgeny Prigozhin was killed when a private jet crashed in Russia’s Tver oblast en route from Moscow to St Petersburg. Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsia) has confirmed that Prigozhin was among the ten people killed in the crash. A Russian media outlet reported on 24 August, citing an unspecified source familiar with the matter, that Prigozhin’s body is among the dead according to indirect evidence.

According to the list of passengers on the private jet, Dmitry Utkin, a founder of Wagner Group and a former officer in Russia’s military intelligence service, was also on board. Valery Chekalov, who was reportedly responsible for overseeing Prigozhin’s ‘civilian’ projects abroad, was also listed as one of the seven passengers on the plane at the time of its crash, meaning the Wagner Group’s most important leaders reportedly died in the incident. Other passengers were allegedly members of the Wagner Group and had fought in Syria.

While it ultimately remains unclear what caused the plane to crash, a Wagner-linked Telegram channel has claimed that Russian anti-aircraft defences shot down the aircraft. The Financial Times reported on 23 August that an unnamed Western official was told the aircraft had been shot down by a Russian anti-aircraft missile system. If this is true, it is highly unlikely that Russia’s military leadership would carry out such an operation to remove Prigozhin without the authorisation of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This therefore poses questions surrounding the de-escalation deal following the Wagner Group mutiny on 23-24 June, which had a seemingly peaceful resolution despite exposing long-term structural issues and weaknesses Russia’s security services. Prigozhin did not openly criticise Putin during the mercenary force’s insurrection and the Kremlin revealed in July that the Wagner Group chief, alongside his commanders, had met with the Russian president just five days after. Nevertheless, Putin had called the insurrection a ‘stab in the back’ and the Kremlin has a track record of killing dissidents and/or opponents both domestically and abroad. The crash will likely serve as a stark reminder to individuals who sided with Prigozhin or were sympathetic to Wagner Group’s leadership more broadly. It will also send a strong signal to figures within the Russian military and the Russian elite more generally that challenging Putin’s authority carries lethal consequences.

Speculation that Kremlin officials led by Putin were behind the crash has already surfaced on Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels. While such sources have promised retribution for the incident, it remains unlikely that Wagner Group supporters or fighters would be able to mount a significant threat to Putin’s grip on power should a second so-called ‘march of justice’ on Moscow be declared. Co-ordinating a sophisticated uprising would present considerable organisational obstacles in the absence of Prigozhin, with the Russian authorities certain to be on high alert for any potential signals of retaliatory activity from Wagner personnel. Notably, it was reported on 23 August that forces under the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs and the National Guard (Rosgvardia) had been placed on a heightened state of alert.

Prigozhin’s death will likely accelerate the departure of Wagner Group personnel from Belarus. Geolocated footage posted by Radio Free Europe indicates that as of 23 August, more than 100 out of 273 tents of Wagner’s Belarusian camp have been dismantled. The dismantlement of the Wagner camp has reportedly been ongoing since August. The geolocated footage comes after unconfirmed reports on 9 August alleged that Wagner fighters are leaving Belarus en masse. On 8 August, the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel claimed that cohorts of Wagner Group personnel have been transported to locations in southern Russia. Therefore, it remains unclear what function (if any) Wagner Group will serve in Belarus following the events of 23 August.

Death of Wager Chief – Risk of Second Mutiny?

On 23 August, at around 1840hrs Moscow time, a private jet crashed near the village of Kuzhenkino (Tver oblast) en route from Moscow to St Petersburg. The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations stated that all ten people on board the flight were killed. Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsia) also confirmed that Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, top leaders of Wagner Group private military company (PMC), were on board.

At the time of writing, it is unclear what caused the plane to crash. Rosaviatsia has launched an investigation into the incident. Two explosions were reportedly heard in the sky while the plane was in midair, indicating that the plane could have been shot down. A Russian Telegram channel also reported that Russia’s security services are investigating whether the jet crashed due to a terrorist attack on board.

• The incident follows the Wagner Group’s mutiny on 23-24 June, the catalyst for which was an alleged strike ordered by Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) on a Wagner camp in Donbas. We previously assessed that the uprising was likely in response to the MoD’s attempts to centralise its command and control over private military companies (PMC) – including the Wagner Group (see Sibylline Special Report – Russia – 25 June 2023).

• An official in Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia oblast claimed that he had spoken with Wagner Group members who allegedly confirmed that Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, a former Russian military intelligence officer and co-founder of the PMC, died in the crash. Their deaths will render the future of the mercenary force unclear. However, given the centrality of Wagner operations to Russian foreign policy in Africa, operations in the region will likely endure either under new Wagner leadership or a new PMC.

A Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel stated that it suspects Kremlin officials, on orders from Russian President Vladimir Putin, sought to assassinate Prigozhin, indicating a possibility that the Russian government was behind the crash. As such, there is a realistic possibility that Wagner fighters or individuals loyal to the mercenary force could attempt to organise a second mutiny or stir lower-level unrest. The same channel has already called on individuals to visit Wagner Group centres or Wagner memorials in cities across Russia on 24 August including in Moscow, Novosibirsk, St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg. While such gatherings are likely to be attended by people wishing to mourn Prigozhin and Utkin, minor-level mobility disruption in these cities is likely, as well as a heightened security presence to prevent any potential clashes or security risks.

However, it is unlikely that a second so-called ‘march of justice’ would reach the same scale as the June uprising. Russia’s MoD reported that Wagner Group handed over thousands of tonnes of weaponry and ammunition to the Russian army in July. It is therefore likely that the mercenary force lacks the weaponry to mount a significant military threat against Moscow. Similarly, the deaths of top Wagner leaders in the crash will likely limit the potential for Wagner fighters to co-ordinate a sophisticated uprising, particularly given that the Russian security forces will almost certainly be on high alert for any signals of Wagner-linked activity. Sibylline will continue to monitor the domestic situation within Russia following the incident as further details of the crash emerge.

Additionally, Telegram channels have reported that an Il-76 aircraft belonging to the Russian MoD has arrived in Belarus and that the evacuation of Wagner mercenaries stationed in Belarus is underway. While we cannot verify these claims, there is a realistic probability that the Russian MoD is likely planning to maintain immediate control over Wagner fighters in Belarus to mitigate mutiny risks. Notably, according to independent media outlet Visegrad24, the Belarussian authorities have cut off internet access where Wagner Group forces are based, likely in an effort to limit communication among Wagner Group fighters and prevent any potential co-ordination of insurrection planning.

 Lastly, there is a realistic possibility that some Russian officials and Kremlin loyalists will seek to accuse Ukraine of being involved in the crash. Notably, a former advisor to Putin claimed that Prigozhin’s ‘murder’ is Kyiv’s main achievement this year. Such rhetoric will allow Moscow to deflect accusations that it might have been directly involved in the incident, likely in a bid to decrease the risk of a second uprising. This could realistically result in ‘retaliatory’ strikes against major urban centres in Ukraine, especially ahead of 24 August, Ukraine’s Independence Day.

• COMMAND: On 22 August, Russian media outlet RBC cited sources from the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claiming that Army General Sergei Surovikin has been officially dismissed as head of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS). Surovikin has not been seen in public since the Wagner Group mutiny in June, which reportedly led to the detention and suspension of several senior Russian military officers (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update –  14 July 2023). The Wall Street Journal cited people familiar with the matter claiming Surovikin had prior knowledge of the Wagner Group’s plans to mutiny, though he was reportedly not involved. Surovikin’s possible knowledge of the mutiny and/or his reported closeness to Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin are highly likely the cause of his dismissal. Having previously been commander of all Russian forces fighting in Ukraine between October 2022 and January 2023, before being replaced by Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, the latest dismissal of Surovikin is indicative of ongoing challenges in the Russian command post mutiny. Nevertheless, reports indicating that Surovikin will remain in the MoD following his deposition likely indicate that Russia’s military leadership still value Surovikin given his track record of competent leadership and successful defensive operations.

• BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report

• DONETSK: Nothing significant to report

• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Geolocated footage from August 22 indicates that Russian forces have made advances south-west of Vilshana, located around nine miles (15km) north-east of Kupiansk. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are making advances from the Serebrianske forest area near Dibrova, located around four miles (7km) south-west of Kreminna, towards the Siverskyi Donets River. According to the milblogger, Russian forces are initiating operations to cross the river. The source also claimed that Russian troops entered Torske, located nine miles (15km) west of Kreminna. However, such claims remain unverified, with Russian sources likely amplifying the extent of Russian advances in the sector. On 21 August, Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Ilya Yevlash stated the Russian command has concentrated more than 45 thousand troops and heavy equipment, including 500 tanks, along the Oskil-Kreminna frontline. This current concentration of forces is unlikely to result in a major operational breakthrough and is almost certainly intended to divert Ukrainian resources away from the southern front but also Bakhmut.

• SOUTHERN: Over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces likely made marginal gains in ongoing counter-offensive operations south of Orikhiv in Western Zaporizhzhia oblast, currently the most intense sector along the southern axis. Geolocated footage released on 22 August indicates that Ukrainian forces made minor advances into the south-east of Robotyne 6 miles (10km) south of Orikhiv. While some Russian milbloggers have indicated that much of the settlement remains contested and that Russian forces have already regained recently captured positions in the centre of Robotyne, at least one claimed that Ukrainian forces control at least half of the settlement. Intense fighting is likely to continue over the coming days. The pace of fighting likely slowed around the border area between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts over the last 24 hours, with neither side reporting notable gains.

• STRIKES: Ukraine’s Air Force reported that on the night of 23 August, Russia launched 20 Iranian-made Shahed 136/131 drones. Ukrainian Air defences reportedly intercepted nine drones over the Odesa oblast and two over the Zaporizhzhia oblast. However, local authorities reported explosions in Izmail, one of Ukraine’s two Danube river ports used to transit grains via the Danube following Moscow’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). The strikes, which are highly likely to continue over the coming weeks, demonstrate Russia’s ongoing willingness to degrade Ukraine’s grain export capacities.

• STRIKES: Moscow authorities reported that three Ukrainian drones targeted the capital early on 23 August. According to the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD), two drones were intercepted over the Mozhaisky and Khimki districts of the Moscow region. The Russian MoD reported that the third drone hit a building in the capital’s Moskva-Citi business district after it was shot down. Moscow’s airports temporarily suspended operations after the attacks, underscoring the growing risks to Russian airspace around the capital.

• GRAIN: Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated on 22 August that his country is prepared to rejoin the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) only if all of its conditions are fulfilled. Addressing the BRICS Business Forum in Johannesburg via video message, Putin claimed none of the terms concerning the lifting of sanctions which Moscow believes hinder Russian grain and fertiliser exports to world markets have been implemented. The Russian leader stated Moscow is able to replace Ukrainian grain both on a commercial basis, as well as in the form of handouts to countries in need, and re-emphasised Moscow’s pledge to send 25,000-50,000 tonnes of grain to six African nations for free. These comments were likely intended to mitigate backlash over Russia’s decision to abandon the BSGI last month and the subsequent concerns over the potential impacts on global food security by portraying Moscow as a reliable partner. Nevertheless, Moscow’s continuation of strikes against Ukraine’s port and grain infrastructure further indicate that Russia is unlikely to return to the deal for the foreseeable future despite Putin’s claims.

• NUCLEAR: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on 22 August that the overall nuclear safety and security situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) remains precarious. According to the IAEA’s update, its team of experts continues to report regular indications of military activity in the area, reportedly sometimes close to the site. The nuclear watchdog claimed its team heard five detonations some distance from the ZNPP on 20 August and five more on 21 August. Other reported incidents included a strong detonation on 14 August which shook their room windows, as well as gunfire sounds two days later. A major nuclear incident at the plant remains highly unlikely in the immediate future, though Russian false-flag provocations are more of a credible risk under certain conditions, such as a Ukrainian breakthrough along the southern axis. For in-depth analysis and scenarios for a nuclear incident at the ZNPP, including the health implications, please see the Sibylline Special Report – Ukraine – 19 July 2023.

• SANCTIONS: Russian airlines have reportedly imported at least USD 1.2 bn worth of aircraft parts from third parties between May 2022 and the end of June 2023 despite Western sanctions. The report published on 23 August by Reuters, which cited customs data, claimed the equipment ranged from cabin pressure valves, cockpit displays, landing gear, as well as flight attendant telephone headsets. The parts allegedly travelled to Russia through intermediaries in countries such as China, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). However, it is likely that the actual value of the imports is higher given that Reuters said its calculations only accounted for direct shipments to Russian airlines and their maintenance units. Russia’s aviation sector was targeted with sanctions following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including measures restricting access to spare parts needed to keep aircraft fit for flying. The report highlights Moscow’s ability to exploit loopholes in Western sanctions through utilising companies in third countries, with such activity likely to continue despite the risk of secondary sanctions as such back-channels will remain a lucrative source of income.

OFFENSIVES: On 22 August, the New York Times (NYT) cited unnamed Western officials who believe that the slow pace of Ukraine’s counter-offensive operation is largely due to the misallocation of troops along the frontline. According to unnamed US officials, Ukraine has distributed its personnel and equipment ‘roughly equally’ between the eastern and southern frontlines and as a result lacks the concentration of forces in one location to achieve a substantive breakthrough. The US officials believe that Ukraine has deployed sufficient troops to retake the city of Bakhmut, which is strategically insignificant but politically important due to the manpower both sides have expended attempting to gain control of the city. US officials have reportedly urged Kyiv to allocate far fewer troops sufficient to fix Russian forces in Bakhmut, in order to free up resources for the far more strategically important southern front.

Notably, the NYT article follows a series of recent media reports citing Western officials stating that Ukraine’s counter-offensive is unlikely to achieve its major strategic objective amid robust Russian defences. The latest comments to the NYT appear to be driven in part by longstanding frustration among some US officials over Kyiv’s decision to invest heavily in the battle for Bakhmut as well as ongoing legacy issues around doctrine in the Ukrainian military. While the US officials cited by the NYT were divided in terms of how successful they believe Ukraine’s current counter-offensive will be, several reportedly believe Ukraine will reach territory approximately halfway to the Sea of Azov (from the current lines of control)..

Georgia-Russia: Moscow’s annexation suggestions likely rhetorical, aimed at driving tensions. The deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev suggested in an article published on 23 August that Moscow could formally annex two breakaway Georgian regions. Medvedev stated the idea of ‘joining’ Russia is still popular in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, adding such a decision could be implemented if there are compelling reasons to do so. Medvedev implied such a move could be made if Tbilisi takes steps to join NATO. Moscow recognised the independence of the two regions on 26 August 2008, when Medvedev was Russian president. The recognition followed a brief conflict between Russia and Georgia. The ruling Georgian Dream party has maintained relatively cordial relations with Moscow since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine; the risk of Russian military action in Georgia therefore remains low, especially given that Moscow’s military resources are stretched in Ukraine. Such comments are likely designed to drive tensions around this anniversary to undermine pro-EU and pro-NATO sentiment within Georgian society.

Kazakhstan: Persistent water shortages will likely drive unrest, food security risks in coming months. On 22 August, local authorities from Kazakhstan’s Zhambyl region declared a state of emergency due to persistent water shortages. The agricultural-dominant Zhambyl region receives approximately 80% of its irrigation water from the Kirov Basin in the Talas River, located in bordering Kyrgyzstan. However, earlier this month, Kyrgyz authorities halted water supplies from the Kirov Basin due to a sharp decline in water reserves. Subsequently, water shortages combined with high temperatures have resulted in severe crop losses in five districts of Zhambyl. Although border tensions between the two countries are rare, increasing water scarcity will represent a trigger for cross-border tensions in the medium-to-long term. The worsening impact on agricultural production will heighten food insecurity and likely increase the risk of farmer protests in the region in the coming months, especially if Kazakh authorities fail to alleviate the water shortages.

• BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report

• DONETSK: Nothing significant to report

• OSKIL-KREMINNA: The Ukrainian Severodonetsk regional head Roman Vlasenko claimed that Ukrainian forces made progress in unspecified areas near the Kreminna sector on 21 August. A Russian milblogger reported on 21 August that Ukrainian forces made incremental gains near Novoselivske, located approximately nine miles (14km) north-west of Svatove, and in the Serebrianske forest area near Dibrova, located around four miles (7km) south-west of Kreminna. On 21 August, several Russian milbloggers rejected claims made by the Russian Kharkiv occupation administration official, Vitaly Ganchev, that Russian forces had captured Synkivka, located five miles (8km) north-east of Kupiansk. Milblogger reports that Synkivka remains contested, further indicate that Russian officials are almost certainly exaggerating the extent of Russian advances along the Oskil-Kreminna front in a bid to divert Ukrainian attention away from the counter-offensive concentrated in the south.

• SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces entered the centre of Robotyne 6 miles (10km) south of Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia oblast) on 21 August, though fighting for control of the settlement is ongoing On 22 August Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar and Ukrainian General Staff reported that members of Ukraine’s 47th mechanised brigade had begun evacuating civilians from the Robotyne. Maliar also noted that fighting was ongoing, indicating that Ukrainian forces had not yet established control in the settlement, which is reportedly under constant Russian shelling. Russian sources also claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaged in intense fighting in the centre of the village. The Ukrainian General Staff did not comment on the presence of Ukrainian troops in the centre of the Robotyne but stated that Ukrainian forces had ‘achieved success’ and entrenched themselves on the boundaries of the settlement. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continue to press counter-offensive operations immediately to the east of Robotyne. Some Russian sources claim that Russian forces retreated from positions in Verbove 13 miles (21 km) south-east of Orikhiv following Ukrainian advances south of Mala Tokmachka.

• STRIKES: On 22 August, the Mayor of Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk oblast) Oleksandr Vilkul reported that a Russian missile strike hit a residential building and damaged energy infrastructure in the city at around 0530 hrs (local time). Furthermore, local authorities claimed that a Russian strike hit a residential building in the city of Zaporizhzhia on the night of 22 August. The Kryvyi Rih strike is illustrative of Russia’s persistent, low-level efforts to degrade Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which are highly likely to increase ahead of the winter, despite the previous campaign targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure failing to deliver significant successes.

• STRIKES: On 22 August, Moscow authorities reported that air defences intercepted two drones in the city of Krasnogorsk, situated in the north-western outskirts of Moscow, and near a settlement located 37 miles (59km) west of Moscow. Reports indicate that debris from a downed drone caused minor damage to a residential building in Krasnogorsk. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has stated that emergency services are operating in the targeted areas, though he did not disclose any information on the casualties. Over the past weeks, there has been an uptick in drone strikes targeting Moscow and mixed success of Russian air defences means that these attacks are highly likely to continue in the near term.

• STRIKES: An unnamed Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) source quoted by the media outlet New Voice claimed that the recent Ukrainian strikes against Russian military airfields damaged five Russian aircraft, including strategic bombers. The source reported that Ukraine struck the Shaykovka airfield in Russia’s Kaluga oblast on 21 August, damaging two strategic bombers. On 22 August, the UK Defence Intelligence (DI) reported that the 19 August strike against the Soltsky military airbase in Novgorod oblast likely destroyed a TU-22M3 bomber. The UK DI also assessed that some drone attacks against Russian military targets are being launched within the Russian territory, given that the copter-type drone used for the 19 August attack does not have the range to reach the Soltsky airfield from outside Russia. The recent uptick in Ukrainian attacks against Russian strategic long-range aviation bases will likely force Moscow to relocate much of its strategic bomber fleet.

• Belarus-US: Advice for US citizens to leave Belarus likely connected to potential border closures. The US embassy in Minsk issued an alert on 21 August urging US citizens in Belarus to leave the country immediately. According to the notice, US citizens in Belarus should consider departing via the remaining border crossings with Latvia and Lithuania, or by plane. It also advised against Americans planning to travel to Belarus. The US has advised its citizens on several occasions not to travel to Belarus or to leave the country. However, the statement comes after Lithuania closed on 18 August two border crossings with Belarus. Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are considering the complete closure of their borders with Belarus, though the details of a synchronised regional decision are expected to be finalised on 28 August. The notice underscores the increasing regional tensions between Minsk and its EU-member neighbours and is likely intended to advise US citizens ahead of potential further border closures.

• WAGNER GROUP: Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin appeared in a video shared on 21 August by Telegram channels linked to the mercenary group that purports to show he is in Africa. According to Prigozhin, Wagner Group is conducting reconnaissance and search activities, but did not share details of his exact location. The mercenary leader claimed the private military company (PMC) is making Russia ‘even greater’ on every continent and Africa even ‘freer’ while tackling Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda. Prigozhin further stated that Wagner Group is recruiting people and the video is accompanied with contact information for individuals who would like to join. While it cannot be verified exactly where Prigozhin is, we previously assessed following the Wagner Group’s mutiny in June that Prigozhin could return to Africa – the focal point of Wagner operations prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A greater Wagner focus on Africa will likely drive efforts to secure and expand contracts in the region, increasing its on-the-ground presence and projecting Russian influence.

• SABOTAGE: On 22 August, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that a Russian Su-30SM destroyed a Ukrainian reconnaissance boat in an unspecified ‘area of gas production facilities’ in the Black Sea. While the claim cannot be confirmed, Ukraine has previously demonstrated intent to carry out attacks on Russian naval assets near oil and gas infrastructure, as demonstrated by the Ukrainian naval drone attack on the port of Novorossiysk – a key node for the export of Russian and Kazakh oil. Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has previously alleged that it thwarted a Ukrainian ‘terrorist attack’ on the TurkStream natural gas pipeline, which has become Russia’s principal natural gas pipeline to Europe. Ultimately, following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) and de facto remilitarisation of parts of the Black Sea, the risk of attacks in the vicinity of energy and transport infrastructure has increased.

• POLLS: Four out of five Russians refuse to participate in opinion polls on the war in Ukraine, according to the research group Russian Field. The Moscow Times reported on the findings on 21 August, noting that a poll was conducted between 16-19 June and 79.2% declined to take part. According to the research, every fourth person refuses to answer questions relating to the conflict in a rude way. Half of the rude refusals reportedly include swearing and obscenities, while 43% did not offer further explanation for their refusal. The results likely reflect heightened levels of anxiety among Russian citizens over the potential repercussions of voicing their disagreement with the war. There is also a realistic possibility such refusal to speak about the conflict reflects emerging psychological defence mechanisms amongst the Russian public, further reducing willingness to engage with criticism of the conflict.

• AID: Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson disclosed on 21 August that there are currently no plans to provide Ukraine with Swedish-made Gripen fighter jets. According to Kristersson, there is a ‘balancing act’ between what Stockholm can provide and what it needs to guarantee its own defence given that it is not yet a member of NATO. However, Kristersson noted his country will do everything it can to support Kyiv with its air capabilities and said Stockholm does not rule anything out in the future. There is a realistic possibility this could signal that the aircraft could be transferred to Kyiv following Sweden’s accession into NATO. President Volodymyr Zelensky said on 19 August during an official visit to Sweden that Ukraine has begun discussing with Stockholm the possibility of receiving Gripen jets, adding that Ukrainian pilots had already commenced test flights on the planes.

DIPLOMACY: On 21 August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attended the Ukraine-Balkans  Summit in Athens (Greece) as he concludes his latest tour meeting European leaders. Zelensky’s presence was part of an effort to secure further defence pledges from the Balkan states, as well as co-operation on security issues in the Black Sea following Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI).

On 22 August, Zelensky confirmed that he met with his Serbian counterpart Aleksandar Vučić on the sidelines of the summit. Zelensky called their meeting open, honest and fruitful, adding that the two leaders had discussed the most important issues of regional security, bilateral relations and prospects for their development. According to a notice on Ukraine’s presidential website, Zelensky invited Serbia to support Ukraine’s peace formula, which calls for Russia to fully withdraw all of its troops and the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

The meeting between Vučić and Zelensky is highly unlikely to mark a major shift in Serbia’s stance on the war given Belgrade maintains friendly relations with Russia, though relations have deteriorated slightly since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion. Vučić faces a difficult balancing act in its foreign policy towards Ukraine. He has previously stated that Serbia has come under severe pressure to join the EU sanctions regime against Russia and indicated that his government could alter its position as part of its wider efforts to align with and ultimately join the EU. On the other hand, a range of domestic political concerns, including significant pro-Russian sentiment among the Serbian population and within the state mean that adopting a position in outright support of Ukraine would be highly risky domestically.

Meanwhile, Zelensky met with Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov on 21 August at the summit, noting that they discussed further co-operation, security in the Black Sea and securing alternative grain corridors. Zelensky stated that Kyiv is ready to use alternative routes for the ‘grain corridor’, noting that it counts on Bulgaria’s support in this regard. It was also announced on 22 August that the Ukrainian president had held talks with the Prime Minister of North Macedonia Dimitar Kovačevski and thanked the latter for defence support, notably the preparation of a new assistance package. However, no further details were given in relation to what it includes. Similarly, Zelensky also thanked Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković for Zagreb’s preparation of a new defence package for Kyiv, which will reportedly contain unspecified but important components.

• BAKHMUT: The overall tempo and shape of Ukrainian counter-offensive operations and Russian offensive operations remained on trend in Bakhmut over the past 72 hours. Geolocated footage circulated on 20 August indicates that Russian forces made minor gains west of Yahidne 1.2 miles (2km) north of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian offensive operations around Bakhmut were repelled. Meanwhile, geolocated footage published on 20 August indicates that Ukrainian forces made advances north and west of Andriivka 6 miles (10km) south-west of Bakhmut, though Russian milbloggers claimed Russian forces rebuffed Ukrainian assaults near the settlement.

• DONETSK: Nothing significant to report

• OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 21 August, the head of the Russian Kharkiv occupation administration, Vitaly Ganchev, claimed that Ukrainian forces had abandoned the settlement of Synkivka, a village located five miles (8km) north-east of Kupiansk. Previously, on 19 August, Ganchev claimed that Russian forces took control of five unspecified settlements in Kharkiv oblast in the past week. Ganchev’s latest claims cannot be confirmed and it should be noted that Russian sources consistently report that Russian troops are making steady gains in the Kupiansk sector. Notably, on 19 August, the UK Defence Intelligence that Russian forces have been launching probing attacks in the Kupiansk sector but have not achieved significant gains in the sector. As such, the Russian claims are likely part of an information campaign to frame limited advances in the Kupiansk sector as major tactical breakthroughs.

• SOUTHERN: Fighting along the southern axis had remained broadly on trend over the past 72 hours.  The Ukrainian General Staff reported that counter-offensive operations continued along the two principal points of the front: south of Velyka Novosilka (in the direction of Berdyansk) in Donetsk oblast and south of Orikhiv (in the direction of Melitopol) in Zaporizhzhia oblast. The General Staff did not report any notable territorial gains. Geolocated footage posted on 19 and 20 August, does, however, indicate that Ukrainian forces recently made advances east of Robotyne, 6 miles (10km) south of Orikhiv. Earlier on 21 August, Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar reported that Ukrainian forces were ‘successful’ in the area of south-eastern Robotyne and that combat operations are ‘currently underway’. Meanwhile, a Russian milblogger claimed earlier on 21 August that the centre and south of Robotyne remain under Russian control, with Ukrainian forces holding territory in the north and to the east of the village. Finally, on 20 August, Ukrainian forces reportedly rebuffed a Russian effort to regain control of positions around the key village of Urozhaine, which Kyiv officially confirmed that Ukrainian forces had liberated on 16 August.

• STRIKES: On 19 August, Russia launched a missile targeting the city centre of Chernihiv, reportedly killing at least seven people and wounding 144. Deputy Head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Oleskiy Kuleba, reported that a ballistic missile hit the Taras Shevchenko Theatre in Chernihiv City which hosted a drone exposition. Russian sources stated the projectile was an Iskander-M ballistic missile. Organisers of the event claimed that they shared the location of the exposition only with people registered for the event. Deputy Defence Minister Maliar noted that the strike was indicative of Russia’s ongoing intelligence capabilities, given the event was private. Regional authorities also reported that Russia launched a drone strike on 19 August against residential buildings in Khmelnytskyi Oblast and infrastructure facilities in Zhytomyr Oblast. Ukraine’s air defences reportedly intercepted 15 of the 17 Russian Iranian-made Shahed 136/131 drones. The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that the strikes in Khmelnytskyi targeted an ammunition storage facility. Additionally, on 21 August, Ukrainian authorities reported that Russia launched various strikes against 9 Oblasts, including Chernihiv Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia.

• STRIKES: Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported on 19 August that Ukrainian drones hit a military airbase in Novgorod oblast, causing damage to two aircraft. While the air base reportedly houses Tu-22M3 long-range supersonic bombers, no information was given on the type of aircraft hit by the drones. Meanwhile, regional Russian authorities reported a Ukrainian drone strike against a railway station in Kursk oblast at night from 19 to 20 August. Additionally, on 20 August, Russian Belgorod oblast authorities claimed that air defences intercepted 12 Ukrainian projectiles over Belgorod city without providing any details on the type of projectiles. While Kyiv did not comment on the strikes, they illustrate Ukraine’s increasing willingness to carry out strikes deep into Russian territory, with a series of drone strikes reported against Moscow in recent weeks.

• STRIKES: The UK Defence Intelligence (DI) assessed on 20 August that Ukraine’s increasing ability to carry out attacks deep into Russian territory has challenged the Kremlin’s initial assumption that the invasion of Ukraine would not impact the Russian population. Ukraine’s strikes against Russian territory have triggered significant discontent in the Russian information space and criticism against the Russian military command. As such, the top officials of Russia’s Aerospace Forces (VKS) are likely under increasing pressure to ramp up air defences in Western Russia. While VKS Commander-in-Chief General Sergei Surovikin is suspected of having been detained after the Wagner Group mutiny, the VKS Chief of Staff, Colonel-General Viktor Afzalov, will likely be held responsible by Moscow if air defences remain unable to curtail further Ukrainian strikes.

• AID: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on 20 August that Kyiv will receive 42 US-made F-16 fighter jets. Zelensky stated that he had agreed with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte on the number of planes to be transferred, but noted this will occur after the training of Ukrainian pilots and engineers is complete. However, Rutte said his country has this number in stock but did not specify how many would be delivered to Ukraine, noting that around 15 were needed for training. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced that Copenhagen intends to supply Ukraine with the first six F-16 fighter jets out of the 19 promised around New Year. According to Frederiksen, Ukraine will receive eight F-16 fighters next year and a further five in 2025. While the pledges mark an important milestone, given Kyiv’s long-held ambitions to receive the warplanes, their provision will not assist in Ukraine’s summer counter-offensive. Rather, the F-16 will bolster Ukraine’s long-term air capabilities.

• AID: In line with an established pattern of Russian rhetoric following pledges of advanced military hardware to Kyiv, Moscow warned on 21 August that donations of F-16s will lead to an escalation in the conflict. However, the Kremlin often uses such rhetoric during periods of heightened tensions and following announcements of advanced Western equipment. In practice, the retaliatory threats will likely elevate the risk of pro-Russian hacktivist campaigns targeted against Denmark, the Netherlands and Ukraine in retaliation to the military aid. This will likely involve disruptive distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) and possible data theft operations, which pose a moderate risk of temporary disruption to organisations’ services.

• RELOCATION: Ukraine’s National Resistance Centre reported on 20 August that Moscow intends to relocate around 300,000 Russians to occupied Mariupol. According to the organisation, which is operated by Ukraine’s Special Forces, Russian officials’ alleged ‘development plan’ envisions completing the relocation by 2035. The report claims the Kremlin has started implementing a program of offering cheap mortgages on properties for Russian citizens and that Moscow allegedly sends labour migrants and civil servants from ‘depressed’ Russian regions to occupied Ukrainian territories. It states that local residents of Mariupol and other occupied towns are simultaneously forcibly deported to Russia. While the veracity of the allegations cannot be confirmed, if authentic, the report demonstrates that Moscow remains insistent on retaining the territories it annexed in the long term by populating them with Russian citizens.

• ENERGY: On 19 August, Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers allocated UAH 350 m (almost USD 9.5 m) to support energy companies in preparation for the ‘heating season’. The funds are intended to provide financial support by compensating interest on loans for the restoration, repair or replacement of war-damaged facilities. The secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, Oleksiy Danilov, stated on 19 August that the country’s energy facilities are now better protected than in 2022 but acknowledged difficulties in ensuring all facilities are protected against potential Russian attacks. The funding underscores Kyiv’s ongoing efforts to enhance the country’s resilience to potential Russian strikes against energy infrastructure – akin to those in the autumn and winter of 2022-2023.

BLACK SEA: The deputy head of Ukraine’s Agrarian Council, Denys Marchuk, disclosed on 21 August that Kyiv was considering using its recently-tested Black Sea humanitarian corridor for future grain shipments. Marchuk also stated that up to eight more vessels are expected to use the route following the successful voyage of a Hong-Kong flagged container ship that had been trapped in the port of Odesa through the passage. As the corridor passes through Bulgarian, Romanian and Ukrainian waters close to the shore, this minimises the likelihood and ability of Russia to intercept vessels using the route. However, Russian threats against civilian vessels and the re-militarisation of large sections of the Black Sea will likely continue to deter shipping companies from considering using such routes.

According to a report by the Financial Times on 21 August, Kyiv is finalising a deal with global insurers to provide cover for grain ships travelling to and from its Black Sea ports. Oleksandr Gryban, Ukraine’s Deputy Economy Minister, said the scheme is being discussed with relevant ministries, local banks and international insurance groups. The scheme could reportedly be put in place as early as next month and cover up to 30 ships to travel through high-risk areas of Ukrainian waters. There is a realistic possibility the scheme could offer greater assurances for shipowners to resume exporting Ukrainian grain. Kyiv is clearly demonstrating a concerted effort to facilitate the export of Ukrainian grain shipments and mitigate global food security risks since Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) in July. However, it is unlikely that the initiative will revive commercial shipping to its previous levels given ongoing Russian threats against civilian vessels in the Black Sea.

Ukraine: Shipping companies will likely remain reluctant to transport Ukrainian grain. On 21 August, the deputy head of Ukraine’s Agrarian Council, Denys Marchuk, disclosed that Kyiv was considering using its recently-tested Black Sea humanitarian corridor for future grain shipments. The Financial Times reported on 21 August that Kyiv was finalising a deal with global insurers to provide cover for grain ships travelling to and from its Black Sea ports. According to Oleksandr Gryban, Ukraine’s Deputy Economy Minister, the scheme was being discussed with relevant ministries, local banks and international insurance groups. There is a realistic possibility the scheme could offer greater assurances for shipowners to resume exporting Ukrainian grain, which would mitigate global food security risks. However, should the initiative be finalised in the coming weeks, many shipping companies will likely remain reluctant to use it due to the increasing re-militarisation of large sections of the Black Sea.

Turkmenistan-Hungary: Gas supplies deal increases Trans-Caspian pipeline construction prospects. On 20 August, the governments of Hungary and Turkmenistan reached a political agreement on Turkmen gas supplies to Hungary during Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhamedov’s official visit to Budapest. While timelines were not provided, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto stated that commercial negotiations will take place, with discussions likely to consider the construction of the transit infrastructure via the Trans-Caspian Gas pipeline. This project has been discussed since 2007 and would allow Ashgabat to supply Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor, which starts in Azerbaijan. The Trans-Caspian is the key infrastructure for Turkmenistan’s access to EU markets. However, uncertainty over construction financing has remained the main obstacle. Baku has stated that it would agree to transit Turkmen gas on its territory, though it refuses to finance the pipeline’s construction. The deal demonstrates Ashgabat’s increasing willingness to secure a foothold in the EU market and realistically increases the prospects of the construction of the Trans-Caspian pipeline. (Source: Sibylline)

28 Aug 23. Ukrainian forces have penetrated the first line of Russian defences at a key pocket in the southern front lines, in a tentative sign that Kyiv’s grinding counteroffensive may be gathering pace. Deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar said on Monday that Ukrainian troops had fully liberated the hotly fought for village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region and were “moving south-east . . . despite fierce enemy resistance”. Ukraine’s military said last week that its forces had raised the national flag in Robotyne but that they remained under fire from Russian forces, which have constructed a series of heavily mined defensive lines along the southern front. Ukraine’s highly anticipated counteroffensive following Moscow’s February 2022 full-blown invasion of the country began almost three months ago. Fighting was focused on attempting to reach the southern coast and severing the land bridge connecting the Russian mainland to Russian-occupied Crimea.

But progress has been painfully slow, creating tensions between Ukraine and its western allies. US officials have painted a gloomy picture of the counteroffensive and expressed pessimism that Kyiv will be able to recapture significant territory before wet autumn weather hinders the ability of its forces to manoeuvre, or they run out of combat power. That has given the village of Robotyne a significance beyond its size, as capture of the settlement potentially opens the way for Ukraine to break through the Russian defences and advance on strategic towns further south, such as logistics hub Tokmak. According to Ukraine’s military and open source intelligence reports, Ukrainian forces have penetrated the first line of Russian defences beyond Robotyne and are within striking distance of the next defensive layer. They said Russia was redeploying crack troops from its 76th air assault division to reinforce the area. Ukraine has also used special forces in the fighting around Robotyne, including troops from its 73rd special operations centre. Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesperson for the local Ukrainian defence forces, said on Sunday that Ukraine had “advanced in the area . . . around Robotyne” and that the Russian army was deploying reinforcements from elsewhere to beef up defences. Recommended War in Ukraine Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia in maps — latest updates But any further Ukrainian advances will be tough against an interconnected system of trenches and tunnels that allows the Russian military to move troops, weapons and ammunition around the frontline. Anti-tank ditches and minefields are adding to the difficulties facing Kyiv’s troops. “Russian units continue to valiantly slow down Ukrainian units on the southern outskirts of Robotyne,” Russian military blogger Rybar, who has almost 2mn followers on Telegram, wrote on Sunday on the social media app. “Nevertheless, the enemy managed to advance,” Rybar said. Ukraine’s military has pursued a gradual strategy of attrition that seeks to destroy Russian logistics and artillery systems so that its own forces can breach minefields without taking large casualties. But US officials have reportedly argued that Kyiv needs instead to concentrate its forces to puncture Russian defences in a knockout blow. However, General Mark Milley, head of the US armed forces, recently gave a cautiously optimistic assessment of Ukraine’s chances. “They’ve attacked through the first main defensive belt . . . they’re fighting through it,” Milley said in an interview broadcast on Jordanian television on Thursday. “They are making steady progress.” (Source: FT.com)

 

28 Aug 23. Ukraine reveals it has developed new super missile which has already demonstrated a ‘flawless performance’ in attacking Russian forces.

• The weapon destroyed a Russian state-of-the-art air defence system last week
• Ukraine developed the new ‘absolutely modern’ missile on its own

Ukraine is boasting that it has developed a new super missile which has already given a ‘flawless performance’ in attacking Russian forces.

The weapon took out a Russian S-400 Triumf air defence system last week in a spectacular strike in annexed Crimea.

Initial speculation was that Kyiv had used a British or French supplied Storm Shadow missile with pinpoint accuracy in this deadly strike on Olenivka at Cape Tarkhankut in northwest Crimea.

But it is now clear Ukraine deployed its own sophisticated new cruise missile.

‘The missile was a new one, absolutely modern,’ said Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine.

Ukrainian TV said there is ‘no clarification of whether it is an absolutely new missile or a modified one’.

One suspicion is that Ukraine has adapted the low-flying, subsonic Neptune anti-ship missile which famously sank the Moskva flagship of Vladimir Putin’s Black Sea Fleet last year.

The new missile appears designed to hit ground targets.

The hit on the S-400 was highly significant since the state-of-the-art Russian air defence system and associated radar should detect and nullify missiles over some 200 miles.

The Cape Tarkhankut deployment gave Russia control over a swathe of strategic land and water in the western Black Sea.

There were earlier claims that the Ukrainians were tweaking Neptune with not only GPS but other advances to enable it to strike land targets potentially at a distance of 225 miles.

The S-400 strike by Ukraine last week destroyed air defence missiles in a giant explosion and also took out Russian troops.

‘As a result of the explosion, the installation itself, the missiles and personnel installed on it were completely destroyed,’ said Ukrainian official Anton Gerashchenko.

In the wake of the strike, some Russian sources suggested the attack was by Storm Shadow.

Yet Ukraine is developing its own missiles as well as relying on Western munitions such as Storm Shadow and US-made HIMARS.

It has also adapted the S-200 air defence missile into an attack option which has been used on annexed Crimea and Russia.

A Ukrainian cruise missile was destroyed today in the air off the coast of Crimea, claimed the Russian Defense Ministry. (Source: Daily Mail)

 

27 Aug 23. Russia sends in elite troops to halt Ukrainian counter-offensive. Russia has deployed elite paratroopers to the Zaporizhzhia frontline in an apparent effort to prevent a breakthrough as Ukraine’s counter-offensive gathers pace.

Elements of the 76th Guard Air Assault Division, sometimes described as Russia’s single best fighting unit, were spotted near the village of Robotyne earlier this week.

Washington think tank the Institute for the Study of War, which has been monitoring the battlefield, said: “Lateral redeployments of elements of the 7th Guards Mountain VDV Division from Kherson Oblast to the frontline in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and elements of the 76th VDV Division from the Kreminna area to the Robotyne area, suggest that Russian forces may be using relatively elite units to reinforce critical sectors of the front.”

The revelation came as Ukraine’s military said it was advancing to the south-west and south-east of Robotyne, which may indicate attempts to further deepen and widen the salient following a week of steady gains.

“Despite rather difficult fighting conditions, our forces advance in the areas of Urozhaine and Robotyne,” said Oleksandr Shtupin, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Tavria group of forces, the overall formation fighting in the area.

He added: “And currently [we] are moving in the direction of Novoprokopovka around Robotyne and in the Malaya Tokmachka direction – towards Ocheratovatoye.”

Mr Shtupin also claimed Russian forces in the area had taken significant losses and were bringing in reinforcements elsewhere.

It comes after images circulated on Ukrainian social media showing two Russian unit patches for the 234th and 104th Guards Airborne Assault regiments, which were purportedly taken as trophies by Ukrainian special forces fighting on the southern front. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

25 Aug 23. The Government of the Republic of Croatia Adopted a New Package of Measures to Help Ukraine. The government of the Republic of Croatia adopted a new package of measures to help Ukraine. It is about material resources and military equipment that will further strengthen and improve the capabilities of the Ukrainian army, especially the ground and air forces.

In the closed part of the session, the Government of the Republic of Croatia on Thursday, August 24, 2023, adopted the eighth decision on military aid to Ukraine, which shows that Croatia continues to firmly stand by Ukraine in its struggle for sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The value of material resources that will be donated to Ukraine based on the eighth Decision of the Government is about 30 million euros. Namely, the Government of the Republic of Croatia has so far passed seven Decisions on donating material resources to Ukraine, i.e. military aid to Ukraine, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Defense were responsible for their implementation.

The first Government Decision thus referred to humanitarian funds, while all other Government Decisions dealt with the donation of material resources.

It is about material resources and military equipment that will further strengthen and improve the capabilities of the Ukrainian army, especially the ground and air forces. Also, donations will further improve the equipment and weapons of Ukrainian soldiers.

“It is important to emphasize the comprehensive bilateral aid to Ukraine, of which the largest amount, around 180 million euros so far, refers to military aid. Aid is also provided through the initiatives of the European Union, that is, a three-part approach focused on the donation of equipment to Ukraine, procurement and strengthening of industrial production,” said Minister of Defense Mario Banožić and on this occasion congratulated Ukraine, which celebrates Independence Day today.

The total aid to Ukraine amounts to 256 million euros, which represents a significant donation and support to the Ukrainian people.

(Unofficial translation by Defense-Aerospace.com)  (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Croatia Ministry of Defence)

 

25 Aug 23. Finland to Deliver More Defence Materiel to Ukraine.  Finland will send more defence materiel to assist Ukraine. The President of the Republic decided on the matter on 25 August 2023 on the proposal of the Government.

This will be the 18th package of defence materiel to Ukraine. Replacing the defence materiel capabilities contained in this package will cost Finland an estimated EUR 94 million. The combined replacement value of all defence materiel packages delivered so far is about EUR 1.3 billion.

“The support of Finland and our allies to Ukraine remains unwavering. The core issue in terms of the future security order in Europe and in Finland is to be able to curb Russia’s aggression against Ukraine,” says Minister of Defence Antti Häkkänen.

For operational reasons and to ensure that the assistance will reach its destination safely, further details on the content of the package, the way it is to be delivered or the schedule will not be given.

Both Ukraine’s needs and the resources of the Defence Forces have been taken into account when deciding on Finland’s additional assistance.

(Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Finland Ministry of Defence)

 

25 Aug 23. A New Military Shipment for Ukraine Independence Day. “Lithuania’s contribution to the fight for Ukraine’s freedom already amounts to millions of ammunition and thousands of weapons, and the return received is valuable lessons learned and Lithuanian defense strengthened. Lithuania continues its uninterrupted support to Ukraine, which is celebrating the 32nd anniversary of its independence today, and the total amount of military support to Ukraine since the beginning of the war has already exceeded half a billion euros,” says Minister of National Defense Arvydas Anušauskas.

On the occasion of the anniversary of Ukraine’s independence, Lithuania is sending another package of military support worth 41 million. euros, and it contains Carl Gustaf ammunition, rifles, maritime surveillance radar sets, 5.56 mm ammunition, generators, anti-drones and more. support Missile launch systems for NASAMS will also be transferred to Ukraine.

During the first seven months of this year, the military support already transferred by Lithuania to Ukraine includes Mi-8 helicopters, L-70 anti-aircraft guns with ammunition, M113 armored personnel carriers, millions of cartridges, grenade launcher ammunition.

Lithuania also prepares expert consultations, allocates funds to international support funds for Ukraine, contributes to the training of Ukrainian soldiers, conducts courses for them, Lithuanian army instructors also participate in the “Interflex” operation, during which together with other NATO allies, they teach Ukrainian soldiers the subtleties of combat.

Ukrainian soldiers wounded in battles are recovering or recovering in Lithuania. Treatment and rehabilitation institutions have already received about 200 wounded defenders of Ukraine, and it is planned to receive even more. (Unofficial translation by Defense-Aerospace.com)

(Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Lithuania Ministry of Defence)

 

25 Aug 23. Patria Explore Option of Manufacturing Armoured Vehicles in Ukraine. Finland is beginning to explore the possibility of manufacturing Finnish armoured vehicles in Ukraine as a response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request on Wednesday.

In practice, the proposal could mean licensed production of Finnish defence firm Patria’s armoured vehicles in Ukraine. Patria has had a similar arrangement with Poland.

“We will, of course, explore all possibilities to support Ukraine,” Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen (NCP) said on Thursday morning.

She added that it was important to foster defence industrial cooperation in Europe.

“If we take a long-term view, we in Europe have a vested interest in boosting the defence industry, and we in Finland of course have a huge amount of expertise in this area,” the Foreign Minister said.

Sweden agreed earlier this month to start manufacturing Swedish-developed armoured personnel carriers (APC) in Ukraine.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv has asked various countries for a wide range of arms assistance.

Defence Minister Antti Häkkänen (NCP) noted that Ukraine has shown interest in Finnish arms companies.

“I believe that there are certainly opportunities for cooperation if there is a clear will to do so. But we must remember that when we talk about changes in production systems, there are quite a few challenges in the conflict zone. This is something we are going through thoroughly, it is nothing new,” Häkkänen said on Thursday morning.

For Patria, agreeing on licensed manufacturing with Ukraine is a demanding solution. The country is at war and the conditions are difficult.

The fastest way for Ukraine to get Patria’s armoured vehicles would be for the countries that use them to donate their own stocks and order more from Patria themselves.

Government considers granting Patria export licences to UAE

Patria is also looking to renew an arms export licence to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) following its suspension five years ago. In the past, the company has supplied armoured vehicles to the country.

According to Yle sources, the licence would cover spare parts and maintenance of the supplied vehicles.

The UAE has been linked to the civil war in Yemen, considered by many in the international community to be a major humanitarian crisis.

The government of Juha Sipilä, led by the Centre Party, suspended the granting of new arms export licences to the UAE at the end of 2018. The suspension also applied, at least for Patria’s new licences, during the government of Sanna Marin (SDP).

However, Finland still issued licences for other arms exports to the UAE in 2020.

The general policy of Prime Minister Petteri Orpo’s (NCP) government is that it wants to boost Finland’s defence sector’s ambitions.

“The better our security of supply in times of crisis, the better our military security,” Häkkänen said. (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Finnish Broadcasting News, YLE)

 

25 Aug 23. Norway to strengthen Ukraine’s defence with donation of F-16 fighter jets.

The F-16 collaborative effort with allies is to bolster Ukraine’s military capabilities.

Norway’s commitment to reinforcing Ukraine’s air defence system has taken a significant leap forward as Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre announced plans to donate Norwegian F-16 fighter jets.

Whilst at its core a humanitarian crisis, the Russian invasion of Ukraine risks adding materially to existing global economic and supply challenges. We are likely heading into a period in which geopolitics will become a regular part of boardroom…

Collaboration with allies remains central to this endeavour. Denmark and the Netherlands have also announced their intention to donate F-16 fighter jets, aligning their efforts with Norway to enhance Ukraine’s air defence capabilities. This unified approach reflects a European commitment to fortifying Ukraine’s security.

According to GlobalData’s “Norway Defense Market 2022-2027” report, Norway has repeatedly expressed its commitment to supporting Ukraine and views it as a fundamental issue for broader European security.

The donation underscores Norway’s ongoing commitment to supporting Ukraine’s security, with the Minister of Defence Bjørn Arild Gram emphasising the pivotal role these aircraft will play in bolstering Ukraine’s military strength.

In a recent statement, Prime Minister Støre highlighted the importance of aiding Ukraine in constructing a modern air defence system and the necessity of this endeavour. “Norway is supporting Ukraine in its efforts to build a modern air defence system. This is both important and necessary.

“We have already decided to train Ukrainian fighter jet pilots and announced in the summer that we would provide two Norwegian F-16 jets for training purposes. We are planning to donate Norwegian F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine and will provide further details about the donation, numbers and time frame for delivery in due course,” said Støre.

Various European nations and the US have declared that they will provide or have provided training to Ukrainian forces to fly the F-16 multirole fighter jet. These include countries such as Denmark, Greece, and the Netherlands.

Minister of Defence Bjørn Arild Gram emphasised that Norway’s support is not limited to material contributions. “We will continue our dialogue with the US and other close allies on the development of a modern air defence system in Ukraine.

“Norway has provided substantial military support to Ukraine, and we will continue to do so. The donation of these F-16 jets will significantly strengthen Ukraine’s military capabilities,” Gram detailed.

As the details of the donation, including the number of F-16 jets and the delivery timeline, are expected to be disclosed in due course, this collaborative effort among allies sets a precedent for strengthening Ukraine’s defence infrastructure against Russia.

Some recent notable donations from Norway during the last few months of Russia’s invasion include the transfer of two Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System launchers (NASAMS) to Ukraine, and the provision of 1000 Black Hornet reconnaissance drones to the Ukrainian Army.

Norway’s commitment to security and partnership is poised to impact Ukraine’s ability to safeguard its skies and national interests. (Source: airforce-technology.com)

25 Aug 23. Forty-two drones launched at Crimea. Crimea, the Russia-controlled annexed territory, was struck this morning by unmanned Ukrainian drones in the biggest coordinated Ukrainian air attack since the beginning of the war. It comes just days after Ukraine claimed to have destroyed a Russian S-400 missile defence system in Crimea, which was described by Ukraine’s intelligence services as ‘a painful blow to the occupiers’. The Russian Ministry of Defence claimed on Telegram that the attack had been ‘thwarted’. It said that nine of the drones had been shot down and the other 33 were electronically jammed and downed ‘before they reached their target’. Although no casualties or significant damage have been reported, it suggests a new phase of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Separately, Russia claims to have shot down a Ukrainian surface-to-air last night, just over 120 miles from Moscow. Again, there appear to have been no casualties, though Moscow’s Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports were temporarily closed. Meanwhile drone attacks on Moscow have continued to intensify, with the city subject to attacks six times in the past week alone. Kyiv hasn’t commented on last night’s attacks (as is standard protocol for the Ukrainians). However, they present a bold test of Putin’s pledge to escalate the war in the event that Russian territory is attacked. (Source: Spectator)

25 Aug 23. Moscow thwarts Ukrainian drone attack on Crimea. Moscow said on Friday its air defence forces thwarted a Ukrainian attempt to attack Crimea with drones overnight.

The Russian defence ministry confirmed its forces destroyed 42 Ukraine-launched drones over the Crimean Peninsula and one missile over the Kaluga region.

Nine drones were shot down by air defence forces while 33 were suppressed by electronic warfare and crashed over Crimea without reaching their targets.

Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Moscow-installed governor of the port city of Sevastopol in Crimea, said on Telegram multiple drones were destroyed over the Khersones promontory, on Sevastopol’s outskirts.

Russian airports suspended flights for a few hours. There were no immediate reports of casualties or damage from the attacks.

Meanwhile on Thursday night, Putin called Yevgeny Prigozhin a “talented businessman” who made “serious mistakes”. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

24 Aug 23. The fatal plane crash that killed Yevgeny Prigozhin this week also eliminated Wagner’s military mastermind and founder, who was credited with some of the group’s most notable — and gruesome — military successes. Dmitry Utkin, a grim man with a gaunt face, smooth-shaven head and Nazi SS tattoos decorating his collarbone, founded Wagner in the wake of a two-and-a-half decade career with Russian military intelligence. Alongside Prigozhin — the public face and financier of the group — 53-year-old Utkin was an equally powerful force within the organisation, according to former and current Wagner fighters. Utkin was one of the few Wagner leaders with the extensive experience in the Russian armed forces necessary to run a paramilitary group with operations stretching from Ukraine to Africa. “Prigozhin did the business [and] the communication. But the real owner was Dmitry Utkin,” said András Rácz, a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “His career before Wagner really defined what Wagner was and is.” Born in 1970, Utkin served as a special operations officer in the GRU — Russia’s military intelligence agency. Over two and a half decades there, he rose to the rank of lieutenant colonel before leaving in 2013 to join Moran Security Group, a private security firm. A year later, Utkin established Wagner, named after the German composer beloved by the Nazis. His own call sign was also “Wagner”. (Source: FT.com)

24 Aug 23. How Iranian drones found in Iraq, Ukraine reflect its growing ambitions. Iranian-made attack drones recovered in neighboring Iraq and far-flung Ukraine are symptomatic of a regime hungry for international influence, according to U.S. intelligence officials involved in the stateside review of the weapons.

Remnants of explosives-laden unmanned aerial vehicles, namely an angular Shahed-101 and more-oblong Shahed-131s, were shown to reporters Aug. 23 during a briefing at the Defense Intelligence Agency headquarters at Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling in Washington, D.C. The DIA is a principal source of foreign intel for U.S. military endeavors.

The unclassified but closely held exhibits, tucked into a theater at the DIA museum, were assembled to be persuasive and hold Iran to account in front of friendly, neutral and potentially hostile nations, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for security reasons.

More than a dozen foreign governments have so far seen the materials; U.S. lawmakers and staff are expected to receive briefs in the coming weeks and months. The DIA declined to name those who already saw the evidence.

The charred-and-chipped drone arrangement coincides with a DIA report published in February that attributed Russian use of Shahed and Mohajer drones in Eastern Europe to Iranian suppliers. (Mohajer drones were not on display Wednesday.) U.S. experts matched components — wing stabilizers, serial numbers, exhausts, nose cones and more — and leaned on publicly available photos and videos in their analysis.

“Russia has used Iranian UAVs to strike Kyiv and terrorize the Ukrainian population, and the Russia-Iran military partnership appears to be deepening,” Lt. Col. Garron Garn, a Defense Department spokesperson, said in a statement.

A DIA official similarly said the agreements reflect an Iranian interest in both cash and cachet.

The Biden administration has expressed concern about Iran’s growing relationship with Russia, considered a serious national security threat alongside China. Tehran has sent more than 400 drones to Moscow amid reports the two are collaborating on a UAV factory hundreds of miles east of the Kremlin.

The Shahed and other loitering munitions are relatively unsophisticated and cheap, costing thousands of dollars, a DIA official said, and they use a breadth of commercially available parts. They don’t need a runway to launch, can fly for many miles and explode on impact.

Reporters were shown at least one defused warhead with a shaped charge, meant to punch through armor, and fragmenting cubes designed to harm personnel. Footage from the Russia-Ukraine war shows drones targeting vehicles and infantry alike, often with deadly effect. They can also overwhelm air defenses or make troops expend pricey ordnance and ammunition.

“The Russia-Iran defense partnership is harmful to Ukraine, to Iran’s neighbors, and to the international community,” Garn said. “The U.S. will continue to use all the tools at our disposal to expose and disrupt these activities.”

The U.S. has repeatedly sanctioned Iranian individuals and entities for their weapons work. The Treasury Department in February, for example, targeted eight senior executives of Paravar Pars, which produces UAVs for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. (Source: Defense News)

25 Aug 23. Top US general says Ukraine to get F16 jets soon. The United States’ top general said on Thursday that Ukraine was likely to get F-16 fighter jets soon, and said its counter-offensive against the Russian invasion has been going slowly and had partial success.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said it was too early to say whether the counter-offensive had failed.

“F-16s. That is moving forward, actually. So there’s a training program in place and they’ll likely receive F-16s … in the not-too-distant future,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said in an exclusive interview with Jordan’s Al-Mamlaka public service TV news channel.

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Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy recently said he had received pledges from Denmark and the Netherlands to deliver F-16s, saying they would strengthen Ukraine’s air defences and help its counter-offensive against Russian forces.

Milley said the counter-offensive faced heavy Russian reinforcements with many months to prepare minefields, tank ditches and dragon’s teeth tank obstacles “in a very complex set of defensive preparations that the Ukrainians are fighting through …

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“The Ukrainians have a significant amount of combat power remaining; this is not over yet,” he said. “So I think it’s frankly too early to say whether it (has) succeeded or failed.”

“Clearly it’s had partial success to date. Now the speed at which the offensive has been undertaking is slower than the planners had thought,” Milley added in the interview in Amman.

Ukrainian forces were being trained intensively in various parts of Europe on “command and control of offensive formations and combined arms maneuver and to break complex obstacles that will bolster its capabilities,” the four-star U.S. Army general said.

“Again, it’s bloody, it’s long and it’s slow. And we had predicted that several months ago,” he said.

Washington was still deliberating providing long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems known as ATACMS that Ukraine wants and which reach behind enemy lines, including Russia, Milley told Al-Mamlaka.

“They’ve gotten long-range artillery with the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) and the Brits have provided other types of capabilities that other countries have as well. So they’ve gotten a lot of artillery,” he said. “But the ATACMS is a controversial topic.

“And for a lot of reasons, they haven’t received those yet. They’re still on the table. President Biden has not said no or yes at this time,” Milley said.

Milley, who is slated to retire later this year, again cautioned against the likelihood of an outright Ukrainian military victory in the near term while highlighting the possibility of a political solution to end the fighting.

“It’s an offensive that is been going on for about, I guess, eight weeks or so. It’s very bloody, slow, high casualty- producing and its very difficult. So the idea of militarily kicking out two or three hundred thousand Russian troops is going to be very difficult and challenging.

“A different way of getting out of this is through negotiations and may be that will happen too.” (Source: Reuters)

24 Aug 23. U.S. Will Train Ukrainian F-16 Pilots, Ground Crews. The Defense Department will begin training Ukrainians to fly and maintain F-16 fighter jets in the coming months, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said today.

The training is expected to begin in October at the Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson, Arizona, and will be facilitated by the Air National Guard’s 162nd Wing.

The U.S.-led training is “in support of the international effort to develop and strengthen Ukraine’s long-term defenses,” Ryder said.

The Netherlands and Denmark have announced their intentions to make F-16 aircraft from their fleets available to Ukraine.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken signaled the United States’ willingness to approve the third-party transfer of the U.S.-made F-16s to Ukraine in a letter to his European counterparts last week.

“The training provided by the United States will complement the F-16 pilot and maintenance training that’s already underway in Europe and further deepens our support of the F-16 training coalition led by Denmark and the Netherlands,” Ryder said. “Moving forward we will remain in close consultation with the Danes, the Dutch and other allies to ensure U.S. training complements the broader coalition training efforts.”

Ryder added that by announcing the training, the U.S. is preempting any training capacity constraints in Denmark and the Netherlands’ training pipeline to ensure the aircraft are fielded to Ukraine as quickly as possible.

He said Ukraine will ultimately determine the number of pilots that will require the training.

During a briefing last week, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said U.S. approval for the transfer would come after consultation with Congress and after completion of training for Ukrainian pilots on the aircraft.

Ryder said the complete training pipeline would likely take several months, depending upon the pilots’ proficiency coming into the course.

“Part of this training will be assessing the individual pilots’ skill level, which will determine help to determine how long that training will last,” he said. “Your basic, new F-16 pilot with not a lot of training on the U.S. side, that training typically lasts about eight months.”

That training includes a series of courses ranging from basic flight training to instruction on fighter fundamentals, weapons employment, combat maneuvering and tactical intercepts among other concepts.

He said training for more experienced pilots could be completed in about five months.

Beyond flight training, Ryder said the F-16s require significant logistics and maintenance training for ground support personnel that ensures the aircrafts remain combat capable.

Prior to flight training, the pilots will receive language training at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, Texas beginning in September.

The language training will ensure that all pilots have sufficient language skills to be able to fully comprehend the “complexities and specialized English required to fly the aircraft,” Ryder said.

The announcement further underscores the United States’ long-term solidarity with Ukraine as it defends itself from Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III highlighted that commitment earlier today in a statement marking Ukraine’s 32nd anniversary of its independence.

“The Ukrainian people have inspired the world with their courage and resolve to defend their right to live in a sovereign, democratic and free country,” he said.

“Today, as Ukraine commemorates another year of independence, the United States remains steadfast in our commitment to ensure that it can celebrate many more,” he said. “We will support Ukraine for as long as it takes in its fight for its security and freedom.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

24 Aug 23. Intelligence Lured A Russian Pilot and His Mi-8 Helicopter to Ukraine. Recently, a Mi-8 helicopter of the Russian Armed Forces ended up in Ukraine as a result of a long-term special operation by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

Ukrainian intelligence lured the Mi-8 AMTSh pilot to Ukraine. He went to cooperate with the GUR.

Source: high-rank sources of Ukrainska Pravda in the Defence Intelligence

Details: This happened as a result of a special operation of the Main Intelligence Directorate, which lasted more than 6 months.

The helicopter made a flight between two air bases and transported spare parts for Su-27 and Su-30SM fighters.

Along with the pilot, there were two crew members on board who did not know where the helicopter was actually flying.

The Mi-8 landed in the Kharkiv Oblast.

As a result of the special operation, two crew members were eliminated. The pilot and his family are in Ukraine, the family was taken out of the Russian Federation in advance.

The Mi-8 remains in Ukraine along with the parts for fighter planes, which it was supposed to deliver to the Russians.

Background:

— In the spring of 2023, it became known about an unsuccessful attempt to lure a Russian pilot of Su-24 and Su-34 aircraft to Ukraine in the summer of 2022.

— The Security Service of Ukraine has detained the former acting commander of one of the units of the Special Operations Forces, Roman Chervinsky, in the case of Russia’s rocket attack on the Kanatovo airfield.

— On April 21, Chervinsky was charged with suspicion under the article of the Criminal Code “Exceeding power or official authority by a military official.” According to the materials of the case, Chervinsky, together with other persons, arbitrarily decided to conduct a “special operation” – to take possession of an aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces. The Russian pilot allegedly agreed to the proposal to go over to the side of Ukraine, but instead, Russia fired on the Kanatovo airfield in the Kirovograd region in the summer of 2022.

— Andrey Yusov, a spokesman for the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Defense Ministry, said that the GUR “immediately rejected” the idea of hijacking the plane, proposed by former employee Roman Chervinsky.

(Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Ukrayinska Pravda)

24 Aug 23. Ukrainian troops raise flag in Crimea after night-time coastal raid, Kyiv says on linkedin (opens in a new window) Share Save current progress 77% Roman Olearchyk in Kyiv 39 MINUTES AGO 3 Print this page Stay across the latest Ukraine coverage.Join the FT’s Telegram channel Ukraine said one of its elite squads raided the western coast of the Crimean peninsula and killed Russian soldiers — a daring incursion in Kyiv’s otherwise struggling counteroffensive against Moscow’s occupying forces. While Ukrainian elite squads have raided enemy positions across the Dnipro river multiple times in the past, this is the first time officials have confirmed an incursion into Crimea. One of the goals of Kyiv’s counteroffensive that started in June is to liberate territories and ultimately cut off Moscow’s land access to Crimea. But progress has been slow, mainly due to Russia’s fortified defence lines, frustrating Kyiv’s allies. The night-time raid in the early hours of Thursday involved a speed boat crossing the Black Sea and landing on the peninsula that Moscow has occupied since 2014 and used as a staging ground for its full-scale invasion last year, officials said. “Special units on watercraft landed on the shore in the area of Olenivka and Mayak settlements,” Ukraine’s military intelligence unit (GUR) said. During their mission, Ukrainian soldiers “engaged in combat” and killed several Russian troops, while also destroying some of their equipment, GUR added. No casualties were recorded on the Ukrainian side, it claimed. The raid took place on the same day as Ukraine celebrates its independence from the Soviet Union. In a video released by GUR, troops wearing night vision goggles can be seen racing in a high-speed boat at night and later on putting up a Ukrainian flag on a building, saying: “GUR are already in Crimea” and “Glory to Ukraine.” The video ends with the sounds of machine gun fire as the troops rush away by sea in a boat. Russian officials did not immediately confirm or deny the incident. Baza, a Russian social media channel considered close to Russia’s law enforcement, reported shooting in the area and cited eyewitnesses claiming men dressed in dark had landed on the coast overnight. Ahead of the raid, GRU posted aerial footage from the Cape Tarkhankut on Crimea’s western coast, showing a successful strike blowing up a Russian S-400 air defence system. Using domestically produced attack drones and long-range missiles provided by western allies, Ukraine’s forces have routinely targeted and struck Russian military installations as well as logistical supply lines in Crimea, including bridges, air bases and the Black Sea Fleet based in the port city of Sevastopol. Denting Russia’s firepower from Crimea is also key to breaking Russia’s Black Sea blockade of Ukraine’s grain-exporting ports in the southern Odesa region. Ukrainian forces in recent weeks have been slowly advancing towards the Azov Sea in the south-east of the country, in a bid to cut off Russia’s forces from Crimea. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has vowed to liberate Crimea and the rest of the territory still occupied by Russia and rebuild the picturesque peninsula as an international tourist haven. “Russia caused the isolation of Crimea, we will return the whole world to Crimea,” Zelenskyy said on Wednesday, as he hosted several western leaders for the third annual Crimea Platform conference in Kyiv. (Source: FT.com)

24 Aug 23. Ukrainian Independence Day 2023: UK Statement to the OSCE.

In marking the 32nd anniversary of the Ukrainian Declaration of Independence, Ambassador Holland honours the strength, fortitude, and identity of the Ukrainian people.

Thank you, Mr Chair and thank you for convening us today. As we mark the 32nd anniversary of the Ukrainian Declaration of Independence, in doing so we honour the strength, resilience and identity of the Ukrainian people. Ukrainian unity, and the unity of the international community in supporting Ukraine, has never been stronger.

Since we last met, Russia has continued to bombard civilians and civilian infrastructure. This includes, as my Ukrainian colleague has stated, the sickening attack on Chernihiv earlier this week, which killed seven and wounded over a hundred people. These victims were walking in the main square, going to the theatre, or returning from church. Once again, Russia has killed and wounded Ukrainian civilians who were simply going about their lives. These despicable attacks only strengthen our collective resolve and further damage Russia’s global standing.

Mr Chair, 18 months ago today, when President Putin launched his full-scale invasion, he believed he would overwhelm Ukraine within days. He completely miscalculated. The resilience of the Ukrainian people, the skill and determination of their Armed Forces, and the world’s commitment to Ukraine’s independence, mean that his illegal and unprovoked invasion is doomed to fail.

Ukraine is not just fighting for its own future, but for the defence of the principles underpinned by international law, namely the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of all states: principles we have agreed as members of the OSCE. We must never let countries attempt to redraw borders by force. Yesterday, guided by that collective belief, many of our countries gathered at the summit of the International Crimea Platform.

We now know that Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea was the direct precursor to Russia’s full scale illegal invasion in 2022. Crimea became a critical staging ground and springboard for Russia’s attacks on the rest of Ukraine, and has allowed Russia to disrupt and destabilise the region through its militarisation of the Black Sea. Crimea lies at the heart of many of the challenges we are facing, so it is only right that Crimea also be at the heart of ongoing discussions on how to counter Russia’s aggression and reach a just and sustainable peace in Ukraine.

Civilians in Crimea, particularly Crimean Tatars, have suffered terribly from Russian aggression, enduring a brutal and systematic campaign of human rights abuses and violations. And, just as we predicted at last year’s Crimea Platform Summit, Putin has followed his Crimea playbook of sham referendums, repression, and re-education in other areas of Ukraine.

The contrast is stark. Where Ukraine offers freedom, Putin’s regime imposes subjugation. Where Ukraine offers democracy, Russia inflicts tyranny. And while Ukraine works to protect human rights, Russia is systematically violating them. We will continue to use every lever we have – military, humanitarian, economic, diplomatic – to support the Ukrainian people in the face of this assault, and to ensure that Ukraine succeeds. As my Foreign Secretary said in his address to the Crimea Platform Summit, “the UK and the international community will never recognise Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea or any Ukrainian territory, and will stand with you for as long as it takes”.

I would like to end by reiterating the UK’s support and admiration to the Ukrainian people on their Independence Day. In the shadow of the last terrible 18 months, never has your resilience, your strength and your identity been more apparent than it is today. We stand with you and will continue to stand with you, as you fight to protect your democracy, your rights, your values and your sovereignty. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

16 Aug 23. Ukraine’s Unmanned Robotic Battlefield Casualty Evacuation. A recent article in The Economist reported that Ukraine’s military has been utilizing unmanned cargo carrying aerial vehicles to evacuate critically wounded soldiers from the forward battlefield to more secure rear treatment centers. This option is being pursued due to the hazards experienced in attempting to conduct traditional helicopter medivac. The danger of being observed by surveillance or detected by air defenses and then attacked by artillery or missiles has in some combat areas made it impossible to safely fly in some areas. Given the obvious signature of the manned helicopter and the exposure time to fly in, load, and exit the risk has become too great. Medevac by armored ambulances though safer are not an option for serious wounds where receiving life saving treatment is essential to patient survival and recovery.

Using an unmanned aerial vehicle in the forward medevac role offers a number of advantages. The UAV is smaller and can be more discrete and, thus, potentially less likely to be detected. The platform can be pre-staged being moved into the take-off site during a quiet period. The casualty can then be loaded under cover with the UAV able to then suddenly appear and depart flying low and fast away from the enemy threats. These actions significantly reduce the exposure time of the medevac UAV and significantly increase the successful completion of the mission. A UAS capable of vertical take-off and landing would gain further advantages of being able to utilize a

The Ukrainian sources did not identify the UAV model that they are employing, however, it was indicated that it is a commercially available system. It is, however, understood to carry up to 397 pounds (180 kilograms) with a range of more than 43 miles (69 kilometers). It could be similar to the BAE/Mallory T-650 (in photo). Ukraine’s Unmanned Robotic Battlefield Casualty Evacuation is likely used to move the casualty to a prearranged safer place and receive proper medical attention.

In fact, a number of UAVs specifically designed for moving cargo are being offered and are potential candidates with several of these already also undergoing demonstration and field evaluation by other militaries besides the Ukraine.

The British Royal Marine Commando’s in April 2021 trialled the Malloy Aeronautics T-600, an upsized, uprated version of its VTOL unmanned cargo-delivery drones. The T-600 showed its capability to deliver up to 250 kg (550 lb) payloads to a forward site. The Royal Marines are considering unmanned aerial systems both for cargo delivery in ship-to-shore operations and potentially in a CasEvac role.

The US Marines are also exploring the cargo UAV funding Kaman Air Vehicles’ development of the KARGO UAV with built-in autonomy, self-navigation and piloting. The VTOL platform is to have a range beyond 500 nautical miles (925 km) and carry up to 363 kg (800 pounds).

Although Ukrainian current use of the Casualty Evacuation UAV is likely used only for the most seriously wounded and the most difficult situations their success will surely find it being closely watched by other militaries. (Source: Armada)

24 Aug 23. Sweden should send Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, opposition leader says. Sweden should prepare to send Jas Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine to help the country defend against the Russian invasion, although the Nordic nation must first complete its own NATO accession process, Sweden’s opposition leader said on Thursday.

Sweden earlier this year said it would give Ukrainian pilots the opportunity to test its Saab-made (SAABb.ST) Gripen fighter, but the Swedish government has also said it needs all its planes to defend Swedish territory.

“We can’t let Russia win. Jas Gripen would make a big difference to Ukraine,” Swedish Social Democratic Party leader Magdalena Andersson told a news conference.

“For Ukraine’s offensive to succeed, its air force must be strengthened,” she said.

Sweden hopes to join the NATO military alliance, but is awaiting ratification by Turkey and Hungary. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)

24 Aug 23. Statement by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Ukraine’s Independence Day. The United States stands in solidarity with Ukraine as it celebrates the 32nd anniversary of its independence. The Ukrainian people have inspired the world with their courage and resolve to defend their right to live in a sovereign, democratic, and free country.

For the past 18 months, Russia has waged a full-scale, unprovoked, and indefensible war against Ukraine. The Kremlin’s war of choice has killed thousands of innocent Ukrainians, displaced ms more, and deliberately inflicted terror and trauma on Ukraine’s men, women, and children.

Yet the Ukrainian people remain indomitable, and Ukraine is fighting back valiantly to regain its sovereign territory and protect its citizens.

The United States is proud to stand with Ukraine, and we will continue to ensure that it has what it needs to fight for its freedom. Under President Biden’s leadership, we have built a strong global coalition in support of Ukraine and committed more than $43 bn in security assistance that has been critical to helping Ukraine since Russia launched its reckless and lawless invasion. We have provided air defense to protect Ukraine’s skies, as well as artillery, tanks, armored vehicles and associated munitions, anti-armor weapons, and more to help Ukraine’s defenders counter Russian aggression. To support Ukraine’s current counteroffensive, our latest assistance package included key capabilities, such as additional mine-clearing equipment, armored vehicles, and artillery rounds.

Nations of goodwill from around the globe have also stepped up to condemn Russia’s assault on the international system of rules and rights and rushed urgently needed assistance to Ukraine. Some 50 countries of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group that I convene have rallied to commit more than $32 bn in security assistance to support Ukraine’s defense.

Today, as Ukraine commemorates another year of independence, the United States remains steadfast in our commitment to ensure that it can celebrate many more. We will support Ukraine for as long as it takes in its fight for its security and freedom.

(Source: U.S. DoD)

23 Aug 23. Underwater drones: Ukraine’s mastery of sea drone tactics points to new era of unmanned warfare.

Footage and images shared online appear to show the Ukrainian navy using underwater drones in their fight against Russia.

Its navy has already displayed a mastery of surface sea drones as an effective strike weapon but does its latest underwater unmanned technology show how the country has now gone a step further to herald a new era of underwater drone attacks?

The footage released online, while not yet verified, is said to show Ukraine’s underwater drone, the Marichka, undergoing testing.

• Ukraine releases footage of sea drone strike on Crimean Bridge

• Ukraine could make ‘dramatic’ advances after breaching Russian defences – expert

• Russian ‘flagship’ bomber destroyed by Ukrainian drone

Other designs, as seen in a schematic shared widely on social media, have all pointed to Ukraine moving in this direction but it is not alone.

Samuel Bendett, a Russia advisor at the Centre for Naval Analyses said: “Multiple countries are actually developing these type of submersed, unmanned underwater vehicles or UUVs, Russia included.

“As well as the United States, China, and a number of other countries.

“They’re being developed for conducting surveillance and reconnaissance below the waters, and some of them can actually be armed to attack surface and sub-surface vessels.

“We also have non-state actors like certain drug cartels in Latin America that actually built semi-submersible vessels that can cross the Atlantic.

“So the knowledge for building both military and commercial type vessels, both fully and semi-submersible has been around for many years at this point.

“We’re probably not far away from some kind of a UUV trying to attack or damaging Russian naval assets.”

During the ongoing conflict against Russia, the Ukrainian Navy has repeatedly demonstrated the effectiveness of using drones at sea.

Defence analysists are now speculating that a new era of underwater unmanned military technology might be entering the conflict as the Ukraine war rewrites the military playbook.

The low profile of surface sea drones gives a degree of stealth, but a submersible or semi-submersible design makes them harder to detect and intercept, whether they’re engaged in attacking of simply clandestine surveillance of ports or vessels.

Russian defence manufacturers are also working to keep up with the development of such technology.

Some experts believe Ukraine’s mastery of sea drone tactics is playing to a new arms race in naval drone design, above and below the surface.

(Source: forces.net)

23 Aug 23. Yevgeny Prigozhin in fatal plane crash, An aircraft said to be carrying notorious warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose Wagner group launched a failed mutiny in June, has crashed on a flight from Moscow to St Petersburg, according to Russian officials. All 10 people on the plane, including three crew members, died in the crash, Russia’s emergency ministry said, according to state newswire RIA Novosti. Russia’s aviation agency published a list of names of people aboard the jet, including Prigozhin and his right-hand man, Dmitry Utkin. A social media page linked to the Wagner group also reported Prigozhin’s death late on Wednesday. “The head of the Wagner Group, a hero of Russia and true patriot . . . died as a result of the actions of traitors to Russia,” the Grey Zone channel on Telegram said. “But even in hell, he will be the best! Glory to Russia!” it said. Prigozhin’s death would mark a spectacular end to his career. After playing a prominent role in Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Prigozhin in June led his paramilitary force on a historic, abortive mutiny march on Moscow. (Source: FT.com)

23 Aug 23. US industry thrives following donations to Ukraine. US donations to Ukraine are strengthening US industry’s hold of the aerospace and defence jobs market as the need to replace defence inventory donated to Ukraine starts to show.

The effects of the most recent US assistance packages to Ukraine have begun to reverberate within the US industrial landscape, as the percentage of jobs in the aerospace and defence sector is dominated by the US. Whilst at its core a humanitarian crisis, the Russian invasion of Ukraine risks adding materially to existing global economic and supply challenges. We are likely heading into a period in which geopolitics will become a regular part of boardroom…

The moves, aimed at supporting Ukraine’s efforts to counter Russia’s aggression, has not only solidified Washington’s commitment to Ukraine’s security but also catalysed a surge in domestic industry growth.

Domination of the jobs market bolstered by US donations

The recent donation by the US to Ukraine, totalling up to $200m, includes munitions for the Patriot air defence systems and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems. These resources, part of the $6.2bn drawdown authority allocated in June, have, like other donations, generated a ripple effect within the US defence sector.

As a result, the US defence industry is shown to dominate the worldwide jobs market with GlobalData’s jobs analytics database reporting that the US has reported 60% of all worldwide aerospace and defence job hirings, reflecting the nation’s hold over the aerospace and defence jobs market as it bolsters its defence capabilities and that of its allies.

The second and third highest are France with 10% and Germany with 7%.

Signs of inventory replacement and strengthening industry

With 60% of aerospace and defence jobs being within the US, it is evident that the industry is not only fulfilling immediate needs but also aiming to replace depleted inventories. This hold over recruitment shows the commitment of the US to maintain a robust and self-reliant defence ecosystem.

It also signifies the desire to replenish stocks used in supporting Ukraine’s counteroffensive operations against the Russian invasion.

Tristan Sauer, aerospace, defence, and security analyst at GlobalData, provided commentary on the matter, “As NATO members and the US seek to refill stockpiles of material depleted by donations to the Ukrainian war effort, the promise of more long-term support for dwindling manufacturing capabilities has incentivised many firms including primes such as BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin and RTX to invest in their personnel to ensure they can meet emerging standards for defence industrial capacity.

This is most apparent in the North American market, with an estimated 60% of global aerospace and defense roles now being located within the US alone due to its well established domestic industrial base coupled with the US Dept. of Defense’s outsized share of the global defense procurement market.”

Push for defence budget growth

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, coupled with the substantial demands of the defence industrial base, is driving the Department of Defense (DoD) to pursue further defence budget growth, according to GlobalData’s “US Defense Market 2022-2027” report.

Despite existing commitments, the US is providing significant weaponry and military aid to Ukraine, necessitating substantial funding for the sector.

With 60% of worldwide aerospace and defence jobs being within the US defence sector, attributed to the support extended to Ukraine, highlights the interconnectedness of global security and domestic industry growth. As the US industry works to replace lost inventory and strengthen its capabilities, the nation reaffirms its dedication to fostering global stability in an evolving geopolitical landscape. (Source: army-technology.com)

23 Aug 23. Ukrainian Armor Company Begins Production of 120mm Mortar Rounds. The “Ukrainian Armor” company has established the production of 120mm mortar rounds. The company stated that production was set up together with two NATO member states.

The new 120mm mortar rounds are already [being delivered to] the Ukrainian Armed Forces. “The Defense Forces of Ukraine are already receiving thousands of new mortar rounds,” representatives of the enterprise said.

Today, 120mm mortar rounds are one of the most common types of artillery weapons in the Ukrainian army. “Mortar rounds are made using modern technologies and fully meet NATO standards,” the company added.

International cooperation and the production facilities’ dispersion helped the company increase monthly volumes of supplies of this ammunition.

The State Concern Ukroboronprom reported on the manufacture of 120mm mortar rounds in February 2023, but did not disclose any information about the manufacturer.

In April 2023, it became known that the Ukrainian military was receiving new OF-843B 120mm high-explosive mortar rounds.

It is stated that this ammunition is guaranteed to hit enemy infantry within a radius of 25 meters to 60 meters, and the spread of fragments can reach 250 meters.

In addition, the 120mm mortar rounds are capable of destroying engineering structures and lightly armored vehicles. (Unofficial translation by Defense-Aerospace.com) (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/Militarny)

22 Aug 23. Poland says Russia’s moving tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. Poland’s President Andrzej Duda said Tuesday that Russia already is in the process of shifting some short-range nuclear weapons to neighboring Belarus, a move that Duda said will shift the security architecture of the region and the entire NATO military alliance.

Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko said last month that Moscow already had shipped some of its tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus after announcing the plan in March. The U.S. and NATO haven’t confirmed the move.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg denounced Moscow’s rhetoric as “dangerous and reckless,” but said in July that the alliance hadn’t seen any change in Russia’s nuclear posture.

Tactical nuclear weapons are intended for use on the battlefield and have a short range and a low yield compared with much more powerful nuclear warheads fitted to long-range missiles. Russia said it would maintain control over those it sends to Belarus.

Duda made his comments at a joint news conference with visiting Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.

“I was telling President (Sousa) about the implementation of the declarations by Vladimir Putin that Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons will be moved to the territory of Belarus,” Duda said. “Indeed, this process is taking place, we are seeing that.”

Duda gave no details, but said that in an “obvious way it is changing the architecture of security in our part of Europe. It is changing the architecture of security in our immediate neighbourhood, but also of the eastern flank of NATO, at the same time. So in fact it is changing the situation for all of the alliance.”

Lukashenko says that hosting Russian nuclear weapons in his country is meant to deter aggression by NATO member Poland, even though Warsaw has made no such threats. Poland is offering neighbour Ukraine military, humanitarian and political backing in its struggle against Russia’s invasion and is taking part in international sanctions on Russia and Belarus.

De Sousa pledged continuing support for Ukraine’s struggle and for other countries in the region, saying it is as important to Portugal as the situation in its own neighbourhood.

“We are united, we stand in solidarity, without any hesitations and I have dully taken note of the Polish concerns over what may be understood as the need to be closely watching any moves that may question the eastern borders of the European Union or of NATO,” de Sousa said.

(Source: Defense News Early Bird/Military Times/AP)

23 Aug 23. Drone smashes into Moscow skyscraper. A Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow damaged a building in a central business district, authorities said on Wednesday, in the sixth straight night of aerial attacks on Russia’s capital region.

Air defences downed one Ukrainian drone in Mozhaisky district and one in Khimki district of Moscow region, Russia’s defence ministry said in a statement.

A third drone crashed into a building in the Moscow City business district around three miles from the Kremlin after being “suppressed” by air defences, it said. The Moscow region, hundreds of miles from the Ukrainian border, has been repeatedly targeted in recent weeks. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

22 Aug 23. Comtech Defense Solutions and Services Uniquely Positioned to Support DOD Priorities. In today’s threat environment, maintaining a technology and information advantage is critical. To stay ahead of near-peer adversaries, the U.S. Department of Defense is moving forward with key modernization initiatives that will enable all-domain information superiority for decades to come. According to the National Defense Science and Technology Strategy (May 9, 2023), the DoD is focused on the optimization of the joint mission; creating and fielding capabilities at speed and scale; and ensuring the foundations for research and development.

As a trusted partner of the DoD, Comtech is evolving its strategic roadmap as the company looks to lead the way in providing smart networks, future communications, and new insights for the DoD. With a rich heritage in building exquisite and advanced hardware, Comtech is now focused on providing the DoD and coalition partners with added value through integrating software and solutions to exploit emerging capabilities.

According to Comtech’s Chief Strategy Officer, Daniel Gizinski, the company’s history in design and manufacturing provides the necessary building blocks required to offer the DoD turnkey solutions and services.

Comtech is also witnessing an evolution in its relationship with the DoD, which is pivoting away from a focus on product procurement to becoming an early adopter of technology through an increased focus on collaboration with strategic partners across the private sector.

“We see a lot more emphasis on Research Development Testing and Evaluation (RDT&E) associated with new capabilities, which is enormous. And especially within the US DoD, a huge focus on procuring services, rather than developing capabilities,” said Daniel. “I think that was always a struggle for the DoD in years past where there would be a great commercial offering available, but they focused instead on inventing a similar capability via a program of record.”

“We’ve seen a lot of flexibility in their ability to go out and discuss with industry, establish partners and then secure capability by employing consumption-based, ‘as-a-service’ business models. That’s driven a much closer set of relationships as our customers can be more open about what their needs are and more attuned to some of the advancements that we’re seeing in the commercial world,” Daniel said while highlighting dual-use technologies.

Converging technology

With over 50 years of proven technology leadership across cellular, terrestrial, and space-based technologies, Comtech is uniquely positioned to support the strategic all-domain command and control needs of the US DoD, Daniel believes.

“Ultimately, a majority of our future roadmap for Comtech’s defense solutions is directly in line with some of the core initiatives that are laid out under Combined Joint All Domain Command and Control (CJADC2) umbrella, so it’s helpful to have a broad array of expertise in wireless, terrestrial and satellite communications,” said Daniel.

Daniel went on to discuss a key challenge for the implementation of CJADC2—communications systems that were not designed to be interoperable. As Daniel shares, hundreds of different stovepipe systems that were never designed to interoperate with each other is a hurdle, but as he believes, integrating upgrades to existing systems and applying commercial best practices can address this challenge.

“It’s a hard problem but it’s one that has been solved particularly well in the private sector already,” said Daniel. “Comtech is able to bring a lot of the focus and lessons learned from its experience in commercial integration to support CJADC2 initiatives.”.

One capability in Comtech’s future roadmap is the company’s ‘Insights at the Edge’ concept, which is designed to fuse SATCOM capabilities with geospatial intelligence. Comtech’s Insights at the Edge offering will ensure multi-dimensional and powerful new actionable intelligence is delivered to those who need it most through the ‘convergence’ of multi-orbit, multi-frequency and multi-modality capabilities, Daniel said.

“These and other compelling modalities have made rapid access to intelligence a new reality for the end user, creating patterns which can be generated when people, places and activities are correlated together,” he said.

Comtech is also focused on ensuring communications networks remain protected against cyber-attacks with Daniel explaining how cyber has become progressively more important over the last couple of years.

“Cyber has really been brought to the front of mind by some of the recent events we have seen. It can’t be added as an overlay after the fact, so it needs to be designed at the front end of a solution’s lifecycle,” said Daniel. “This is something we’re really focused on at Comtech—ensuring our solutions are designed to be cyber secure today, but also enabling those solutions to easily adapt, update and grow with a changing landscape.”

“It’s interesting to see just how long military customers leave equipment in the field and continue to have it operate well into the future. The cyber landscape that you see today is totally different to what we saw 10 years ago, so the importance of software-defined and field upgradeable cyber security is absolutely critical in giving customers the ability to stay current with modern threats without the need to send hardware back – because logistically, they can’t afford to.”

Comtech is also exploring Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) cyber related services for DoD customers which Daniel believes will be crucial in supporting the needs of CJADC2 moving forward, particularly at the tactical edge where risk of cognitive overload can be high.

“AI/ML capability becomes a really interesting opportunity where, for each advancement in automation, cyber-attacks and threat vectors, there’s a corresponding need for cyber defenses to incorporate AI/ML to automatically adapt capability to a changing landscape,” said Daniel. “We see that as an interesting challenge for satellite systems fielded 10-20 years ago which don’t necessarily have the compute power or other capabilities that you might want to have based on what we understand today. So we’re finding ways to partner with AI/ML leaders to field integrated solutions in the short term as we build this into our portfolio.”

Supporting Ukraine

Finally, Daniel described how the DoD’s ongoing support of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) continued to highlight the importance of rapid prototyping and fielding of technologies.

The desire of the UAF to field “70% capable, fit-for-purpose” technologies had “turned on its head” conventional wisdom regarding what warfighting technology should look like today, he said.

“This kind of approach makes it more affordable to field technology without going through an extensive qualification process which a lot of larger governments tend to wrap around any new equipment they want to field,” said Daniel.

“That kind of entrepreneurial approach is definitely something that we’ve adopted at Comtech,” said Daniel “So we’re looking to cut out as much of that non-value add process and get capabilities fielded that can be evaluated by end users and evolve over time to meet emerging needs in the field.”

Ultimately, according to Daniel, Comtech is leveraging its differentiated expertise across global commercial and government markets, unique culture of innovation, and close collaboration with DoD customers to not only solve their toughest challenges today, but also address those over the horizon.

Comtech’s extensive portfolio of defense and security technologies, systems, and services are designed to deliver the integrated smart networking capabilities needed to enhance CJADC2 operations. Comtech has extensive experience developing and deploying customized, interoperable, robust, and resilient systems and services for all branches of the U.S. Department of Defense, as well as coalition forces. Visit www.comtech.com to learn more.

23 Aug 23. Alongside modern Western arms, Ukraine uses custom-built ‘mini-Grads.’ Ukraine has an arsenal of high-tech Western arms to fight Russian forces, but is also deploying custom-built mini-rocket launchers that use parts taken from a Soviet-era system.

The “mini-Grad” uses pipes from Soviet-designed BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers developed in the 1960s, and can be mounted on pickup trucks, providing additional mobility for the counteroffensive Kyiv began in early June.

“We have equipment that we call the mini-Grad. It is made of BM-21 Grad pipes placed on top of a pickup truck, which makes it easily transportable,” a Ukrainian serviceman with the call-sign “Gall” told Reuters in the southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia.

“We try to make them more precise compared to Grads. They have the same firing pattern but, thanks to extra mechanisms to take aim and the shorter distance (they are fired at), we try to make the mini-Grad more precise.”Gall, a member of Ukraine’s 108th Separate Territorial Defence Brigade, said the mini-Grads were not as accurate as the advanced HIMARS rocket systems Kyiv has received from the United States but made it possible to get closer to enemy lines.

“I cannot say that we hit targets with higher precision compared to the BM-21, but we can drive closer (to the target).” he said.

A colleague with the call sign “Luka” said the mini-Grad has a timer, helping protect those operating it, and volunteer launch station constructor Yurii Osokolanskyi said there was room for three rockets – fewer than the BM-21 Grad.

“Why? Because we are sure that three rockets will land where we need them to. It is rather ineffective to fire 10, eight or two rockets at one target,” he said. “We fire three rockets precisely. The soldiers then can change their position, recharge, and continue to fire at different targets.”

Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Musiyenko said there were three advantages in using mini-Grads — their mobility enables them to move fast, units that have them can fire on a target without waiting to summon artillery from elsewhere, and they offer extra firepower for lightly armed infantry units. He said the development of such weaponry was designed to “give an advantage to units which typically do not have this type of weapon.” (Source: Reuters)

23 Aug 23. Netherlands to supply Ukraine with a thousand chargers for remote demining. The Netherlands will send Ukraine a thousand chargers for remote demining, Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren said on a visit to Kyiv. The announcement coincides with heavily mined Russian defence lines slowing down a Ukrainian counteroffensive to recapture territory seized by Russia since its forces invaded in February 2022.

“There is a decision to provide about a thousand portable chargers for remote demining that can make passageways in engineered barriers,” Ollongren was quoted as saying on the Ukrainian defence ministry website at a meeting with Ukrainian minister Oleksiy Reznikov on Tuesday.

“Now, as I know, you are facing the problem of extremely dense mining of territories,” she said.

Earlier on Tuesday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that helping Ukraine to get across a massive land mine belt can become a joint effort by Germany and other partners.

(Source: Reuters)

22 Aug 23. Prominent journalist says Russia’s Surovikin dismissed as head of aerospace forces. A prominent Russian journalist said on Tuesday that General Sergei Surovikin, former commander of Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, had been dismissed as head of the country’s aerospace forces. There was no official confirmation of the report by Alexei Venediktov, the well-connected former head of the now defunct Ekho Moskvy radio station, but it was cited by some other Russian news outlets on social media.

Venediktov said on his Telegram channel that Surovikin had been removed by official decree, without providing any further details.

The general has not been seen in public since a short-lived mutiny on June 24-24 by the Wagner mercenary group and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin against Russia’s defence establishment.

During the revolt, Surovikin appeared in a video, looking uncomfortable and without insignia, urging Prigozhin to stand down. Since the mutiny, Russian and foreign news reports have said that Surovikin was being investigated for possible complicity in it.

Surovikin earned the nickname “General Armageddon” during Russia’s military intervention in Syria’s civil war.

Last October he was placed in charge of Russian military operations in Ukraine, but in January that role was handed to General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff, and Surovikin was made a deputy to Gerasimov. (Source: Google/https://wkzo.com/)

22 Aug 23. External Investigation In Relation to RUAG MRO’s Leopard 1 Main Battle Tanks. Federal Councilor Viola Amherd, head of the DDPS, has requested a detailed external investigation into the circumstances of the purchase of tanks in 2016 and the signing of the contract with the company Rheinmetall.

It will also examine how the board of directors fulfilled its duty of supervision over the management, and whether it is necessary to adapt the collaboration between the board of directors and the owner.

In 2016, the former company RUAG Holding SA bought 96 Leopard 1 tanks in Italy, where they were then stored. According to RUAG MRO, they were purchased as commercial goods and as machinery available to supply spare parts.

At the beginning of 2023, the Rheinmetall company asked RUAG MRO if it could buy the battle tanks stored in Italy. Rheinmetall then openly declared that these tanks would be delivered to Ukraine after a maintenance service carried out in Germany.

On February 13, 2023, RUAG MRO signed a sales contract with Rheinmetall including a reservation that delivery would only take place with the permission of the competent authorities.

On August 20, 2023, at an extraordinary meeting of the Board of Directors of RUAG MRO, further inconsistencies were identified in connection with this matter. The head of the department was informed of this last evening by the chairman of the board of directors. RUAG MRO will report on the situation today.

Based on the latest observations, questions arise in particular about the collaboration of RUAG MRO with the Confederation as owner. This is why Federal Councilor Viola Amherd commissioned an in-depth external investigation.

The investigation will focus on the trade in Leopard 1 tanks, including the circumstances surrounding their purchase in 2016 and the signing of the contract with Rheinmetall. It will also be a question of examining how the board of directors fulfills its duty of supervision over the management and whether there is a need to adapt the collaboration between the board of directors and the owner. (Unofficial translation by Defense-Aerospace.com) (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Swiss Ministry of Defense, Civil Protection and Sport)

22 Aug 23. Tu-22 Backfire Destroyed in Drone Strike Deep Inside Russia. Soltsy-2 airbase, which is home to Russian Tu-22M3 Backfire swing-wing bombers, was hit by a drone strike yesterday. Images of black smoking billowing from the base further solidified those reports, but it wasn’t clear what was burning. Now, photos have emerged that show a Tu-22M3 engulfed in flames at the base.

The images first appeared on Telegram and have since made their way onto other social media platforms. Russian MoD has said one unspecified aircraft was damaged due to a drone attack, stating the following on its Telegram channel:

“At around 10:00 Moscow time today, the Kiev regime carried out a terrorist attack using a copter type UAV against a military airfield in Novgorod region. The UAV was detected by the airfield’s observation outpost and was hit with small arms fire.

As a result of the terrorist attack, a fire broke out in the airfield parking lot, which was promptly extinguished by firefighting teams.”

The installation sits roughly 115 miles south of St. Petersburg, 315 miles west of Moscow, and 100 miles east of NATO member Estonia. This puts it about 415 miles north of the border of Ukraine. Kyiv’s long-range drone arsenal has expanded dramatically in recent months, with regular attacks on Moscow now a reality.

There have also been sabotage attacks on Russian airfields far from Ukraine and the possibility of the use of smaller drones for localized attacks by such teams has been a major threat. The Soviet-era Tu-22Ms have been a major problem for Ukraine since not long after Russia’s all-out invasion of the country. They have been used to launch old supersonic Kh-22s and newer Kh-32 variants — which are primarily heavy anti-ship missiles — against Ukrainian targets. The high speeds of these missiles meant Ukraine had little defense against them, until the Patriot air defense system arrived. However, Ukrainian Patriots are still few in number and primarily cover the capital, Kyiv. The first video of Kh-22/Kh-32 missiles being launched at Ukrainian targets emerged in May 2022.

These huge missiles are not that accurate and have hit civilian targets with horrible results, including striking a mall and a high-rise apartment building. According to Ukrainian prosecutors, the latter attack was executed by the same bomber unit hit by the drone strike yesterday,

Tu-22Ms were produced between 1969 and 1993, with over 500 examples built. Today, Russia’s long-range bomber force features about 60 Tu-22M3 bombers at three operational bases — Belaya, Olenyegorsk, and Shaykovka — plus additional aircraft at the Ryazan training base. So, hitting just one would be a significant loss for Russia.

Taking vengeance on Russia’s bomber force via long-range drones has been a Ukrainian tactic for some time, but we have seen attempts to strike these high-value assets decline as Kyiv’s ability to reach Moscow solidified.

If this attack was executed by a small quadcopter, or another hobbyist or commercially available drone type, as the Russian MoD indicates, it will have sent a chill through the country’s aerospace forces out west. Defending against these types of local attacks is very tough to do persistently and this one is also a reminder that teams with this intent and capability are operating deep inside Russia far from Ukraine’s borders. (Source: UAS VISION/ The Drive)

22 Aug 23. Ukraine launching drone attacks from inside Russia. Drone attacks on Russia may have been launched from its own territory, according to Britain’s Ministry of Defence (MoD).

It comes after Russia’s flagship bomber, a Tupolev Tu-22, was destroyed at the Soltsy-2 air base south of St Petersburg on Saturday.

It is around 400 miles from the Ukrainian border, meaning it is “unlikely” that the drone was launched from Ukraine.

The MoD said: “This adds weight to the assessment that some UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] attacks against Russian military targets are being launched from inside Russian territory.

“Copter UAVs are unlikely to have the range to reach Soltsky-2 from outside Russia.”

Moscow said four drones were shot down over Russia last night, crashing in the Bryansk and Moscow regions without any casualties.

Russian media reported yesterday that a drone strike at the Kaluga region’s Shaykovka base had damaged an “unused aircraft”.

(Source: Daily Telegraph)

22 Aug 23. Russian military expert says Moscow will destroy Ukraine’s F-16 airfields. Kyiv has been promised dozens of the advanced fighter jet to aid fight against Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen sit in a F-16 fighter jet at Skrydstrup Airbase in Vojens, Denmark. EPA

Russia will counter the delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by attacking the airfields that Kyiv must build for the aircraft to operate, a Russian military expert has said.

The Netherlands and Denmark have said they will supply the US-made jets to the Ukrainian military after receiving approval from Washington last week.

Delivery of the planes, which Kyiv has sought to counter Russian aerial attacks, are expected to begin later this year.

According to Viktor Litovkin, a retired Russian colonel, Ukraine will need to prepare “properly equipped airfields, radar stations, and special preflight preparation and post-flight maintenance equipment, as well as aviation fuel purifying devices and missile storage sites” for the F-16s.

“Ukraine doesn’t have anything like that. If they start to build it all, Russia will not turn a blind eye to it. The Russian Armed Forces will simply wait until the construction work reaches a certain point and then carry out strikes,” Mr Litovkin told Russia’s state-owned Tass news agency.

Denmark and the Netherlands have pledged to hand over 61 F-16 jets to Ukraine once its pilots have been trained to use them.

Copenhagen will deliver 19 of the planes, six of them by the end of this year, eight next year and five in 2025, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said during a visit by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday.

Visiting Greece on Monday, Mr Zelenskyy said Athens will also help train F-16 pilots and rebuild the port city of Odesa.

He said it was “an important result for the air coalition”.

Mr Litovkin said the F-16s would not be able to match the capabilities of Russia’s fighter jets, pointing out that they were “single-engine aircraft that aren’t capable of performing complicated manoeuvres in the air”, whereas Russian aircraft had two engines.

“Our planes can actually spin in place, slipping away from missiles thanks to their high manoeuvrability,” he claimed.

Training by an 11-nation coalition will begin this month, and officials hope pilots will be ready by early 2024.

While some training has already begun for Ukrainian pilots, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on Sunday that it had been limited to language lessons so far.

Ukraine has been pressing its western allies for months to supply it with fighter jets.

Its armed forces are still using ageing Soviet-era combat planes from the 1970s and 1980s, and its counter-offensive against Russian positions is advancing without air support, which analysts say is a major handicap.

Russia has recently stepped up its bombardment of Ukraine as its land forces face a counter-offensive in the east and south.

Gains by either side have been hard won as the war enters its 19th month since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Source: News Now/https://www.thenationalnews.com/)

21 Aug 23. U.S. Open to Training Ukrainian F-16 Pilots if Needed. Last week, in a letter from Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to counterparts in Europe, the U.S. signaled its willingness to approve the third-party transfer of U.S.-made F-16 aircraft to Ukraine.

Both the Netherlands and Denmark have announced their intentions to make F-16 aircraft from their own fleets available to Ukraine.

During a briefing Friday, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said U.S. approval for the transfer would come after consultation with Congress and after completion of training for Ukrainian pilots on the aircraft.

During a discussion today with the Pentagon press corps, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh clarified some of what would need to happen for that approval to come.

“In order for the third-party transfer to be completed, there are certain criteria that have to be met, including the English language training other things like logistics on the ground,” she said. “So once that criteria met, we’ll be in a position to authorize the transfer.”

The U.S. would be willing to participate in the training of Ukrainian pilots, Singh said, if there were more Ukrainian pilots in need of training than what the Europeans are able to handle.

“open to training existing pilots if capacity is reached in Europe,” Singh said. “That’s the condition. So, if Denmark and the Netherlands are taking the lead on training, if they just do not have the capacity … to train as many pilots as Ukraine wants to send or plans to send, then we will … help train stateside.”

The Ukrainian pilots will need to go though “significant English-language training,” to be ready to fly the F-16, and that will take some time, Singh said. Additionally, the total number of pilots who will need training will be determined by the Ukrainians.

“Ukraine will be the one, and I think it is still putting together how many pilots they have that are going to be able to be trained,” she said. “I don’t have those numbers yet.”

Hawaii Wildfires

Regarding ongoing efforts in Hawaii, Singh also said that Joint Task Force 5-0 is now at full operational capacity and is actively synchronizing DOD support of operations there. The task force’s mission is to support and augment the efforts of county, state and federal authorities in Hawaii to ensure the people of Maui receive necessary aid and assistance.

“As of this morning, altogether, more than 665 DOD personnel and 156 Coast Guardsmen are actively engaged in the coordinated response to the Western Maui wildfire,” Singh said.

The task force, she said, will continue to work closely with state officials, FEMA and other supporting agencies to support the people of Hawaii in response to the wildfires.

Singh said the Army’s 25th Infantry Division has Heavy Expanded Mobility Tactical Trucks on site to conduct fuel distribution operations which are expected to begin later today. The HEMTT vehicles will provide approximately 1,500 gallons of fuel daily in support of 18 generators operating along the west coast.

“In addition, the Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency has deployed six forensic anthropologists to assist in gathering and identifying human remains,” she said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

21 Aug 23. Canada-Ukraine Collaboration Seeks Tech Solutions to National-Security Challenges.

The Canada-Ukraine Security Innovation Challenge (CUSIC) today announced a Call for Solutions that invites Canadian and Ukrainian tech companies to submit innovative proposals to address a range of national-security challenges, from cybersecurity to secure communications between partner nations.

This important and timely project invites innovators from both countries to participate in a bilateral competition that will bring together tech entrepreneurs to present innovative solutions that will strengthen Canada and Ukraine’s technological expertise, with the goal of commercialization through piloting and procurement opportunities.

Established earlier this year, CUSIC is a collaboration between Ukrainian Startup Fund, Ontario Centre of Innovation and Communitech.

Qualified companies will have the opportunity to pitch to Canadian and Ukrainian national-security stakeholders and will be selected for market-exploration discussions with key national security stakeholders.

Two sets of challenges have been developed: one each by Canadian and Ukrainian stakeholders. A description of all the challenges can be found here.

Timeline

• Proposed solutions can be submitted from Aug. 21 to Sept. 11.

• A panel of adjudicators, including national-security experts, will review the submissions.

• Companies chosen to proceed will be notified between Sept. 27 and Oct. 6, and will receive coaching and guidance leading up to a Solutions Showcase. (Applicants not selected will be given feedback).

• The chosen companies will present their tech solutions to an audience of subject-matter experts, national-security partners and potential investors at a Solutions Showcase event scheduled for Nov. 9, 2023.

For more information, please visit www.cusic.ca.

Quotes:

• “Collaboration is the catalyst for innovation. Through the Canada-Ukraine Security Innovation Challenge we are creating enduring global partnerships and forging a path for game-changing solutions to national security challenges.” – Claudia Krywiak, President & CEO at the Ontario Centre of Innovation.

• “Ukrainian Startup Fund is proud to be part of the Canada-Ukraine Security Innovation Challenge, where collaboration ignites the forge of transformative advancements in the realm of security technology of both Canadian and Ukrainian technological enterprises. This union not only underscores our unwavering dedication to innovation but also heralds a potent era of cross-border cooperation, poised to reshape the landscape of security on a global scale.” – Pavlo Kartashov, CEO, Ukrainian Startup Fund.

• “Communitech is proud to help foster the development and commercialization of leading-edge technology through the Canada-Ukraine Security Innovation Challenge. This initiative supports founders from both countries and is another example of our commitment to harness the power of collaboration to advance Tech for Good.” – Joel Semeniuk, Chief Strategy Officer, Communitech

• “Rogers Cybersecure Catalyst is a proud partner of the Canada-Ukraine Security Innovation Challenge. This initiative represents the type of cross-border collaboration needed to drive cybersecurity innovation and commercialization, so we can protect our society, institutions and national security.” – Sumit Bhatia, Director, Innovation and Policy, Rogers Cybersecure Catalyst.

About the Ontario Centre of Innovation:

The Ontario Centre of Innovation (OCI) brings industry, academic, and government partners together to invest in collaborative R&D, technology development, and commercialization opportunities that generate the highest return on innovation for Ontarians. As an ecosystem connector, OCI initiates unparalleled partnership opportunities, develops and manages successful industry-academic collaborations, supports high-potential SMEs in commercializing ground-breaking research, and provides hands-on training and skills development opportunities for the next generation of highly skilled talent.

OCI drives economic growth and job creation through investments in the development, commercialization, and adoption of advanced technologies. For more information: https://www.oc-innovation.ca

About Communitech:

Established in 1997 in Waterloo Region, Communitech was built by tech founders who saw the need for a community of support to help ensure the future prosperity of Canada. Today, Communitech is Canada’s leading innovation hub, supporting a community of more than 1,200 founders by providing accelerated opportunities to access talent, capital and sales.

As Canada’s tech supercharger, Communitech helps founders start, grow and succeed by:

• Hiring and retaining the smartest, brightest and most experienced people

• Accessing growth financing at every stage

• Selling to the biggest customers at home and around the world

• Connecting the right people at the right time – peers who have been there before, coaches who can guide them through the difficult spots and partners from all over Canada

About Ukrainian Startup Fund:

Ukrainian Startup Fund is the one-of-a-kind state institution that helps innovative projects and technology startups raise funds at the early stages and launch their projects. The fund is the driver of the startup ecosystem development, provides conditions for the growth of the sector, creates a positive investment image of the Ukrainian tech industry abroad, and represents Ukrainian innovative solutions around the world.

(Source: BUSINESS WIRE)

18 Aug 23. Keel laid for second Ada-class corvette for Ukrainian Navy. A keel-laying ceremony for the second MilGem (Ada)-class corvette under construction for Ukraine was held at RMK Marine’s shipyard in Tuzla, Istanbul, on 18 August. RMK Marine is building the two Ada-class corvettes under an agreement signed by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the Turkish Defence Industry Agency (SSB) in December 2020. Turkish engineering company STM has overall responsibility for the programme.

Announcing the latest milestone on social media, the Ukrainian Navy said work was being carried out “on time, in accordance with the schedules and signed contracts”.Construction on the second ship started on 2 October 2022. Meanwhile, work on first-of-class Hetman Ivan Mazepa (F 211) continues to make progress. Construction on Hetman Ivan Mazepa started in July 2021; it was laid down on 7 September that year and launched alongside the steel-cutting ceremony of the second ship on 2 October 2022. (Source: Janes)

21 Aug 23. Denmark Will Donate 19 F-16 Fighter Jets to Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelenskyj landed in Skrydstrup together with his wife Olena and was received by Crown Princess Mary and Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (S), Defense Minister Jakob Ellemann-Jensen (V) and Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen (M).

Together with the Netherlands, Denmark has spearheaded the establishment of the international training coalition on F16 combat aircraft. The coalition was announced at the NATO summit in Vilnius together with nine other allies and will ensure training of the Ukrainian air force in the use of, among other things, F-16 fighter jet.

The government, together with the Netherlands, is now prepared to also donate F-16 aircraft to Ukraine, which has long been requested by Ukraine. The combat aircraft must, among other things, contribute to Ukraine being able to defend its airspace against Russia’s illegal aggression. Denmark will work for other countries to join the coalition and contribute to the Ukrainian defense struggle.

“The training of Ukrainian pilots is the first, necessary step to give them the skills and prerequisites to be able to use the aircraft. The next step to secure Ukraine’s airspace is for the West to provide fighter jets to the pilots for Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invasion. It will take time for that to happen. The government has received support from the Foreign Policy Council for a gradual donation of 19 Danish F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine,” says Defense Minister Jakob Ellemann-Jensen.

“Denmark stands firmly by Ukraine’s side, and the donation of F-16 fighter jets is another clear example of our unwavering support for Ukraine’s freedom struggle against the continued Russian aggression. Denmark will do everything we can to expand the coalition so that more countries can help with the delivery of the F-16 fighter jets that Ukraine needs to strengthen its air defense,” says Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

“It is important that we continue our strong support for Ukraine and that we help Ukraine strengthen the defense of Ukrainian airspace against Russia’s continued attacks. The first step will be the training of pilots, which we are now embarking on. I am happy about the broad support from a large majority of the parties in the Danish Parliament,” says Defense Minister Jakob Ellemann-Jensen.

A donation of F-16 fighter jets requires US legal authorization for the transfer of the fighter jets to Ukraine. In addition, a final donation of combat aircraft depends on training and the right enabling support structures in Ukraine to use the combat aircraft. The donation will be made gradually so that it does not affect Denmark’s planned transition to F-35 combat aircraft.

Expenses associated with the donation are assumed to be financed within the Ukraine Fund. (Unofficial translation by Defense-Aerospace.com)

(Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

21 Aug 23. Joint statement of Intent Between the Prime Minister of Sweden and the President of Ukraine. Statement of Intent between the Prime Minister of Sweden and the President of Ukraine on Enhanced Cooperation on the CV90 Platform, made 19 August 2023.

Continued Western support to Ukraine is crucial for Ukraine’s fight for freedom, and for the freedom of Europe as a whole.

After 18 months of war in Europe, our conclusion is that modern and agile land combat systems are essential to repel and defeat an aggressor. One key element to the success of both defensive and offensive operations on the battlefield is the mobility, fire power, reliability, and crew protection of a modern tracked infantry fighting vehicle (IFV).

As part of Sweden’s long-standing commitment to support Ukraine, Sweden has donated Combat Vehicle 90 (CV90) infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), in solidarity with Ukraine in its fight for sovereignty and freedom. Sweden has also, and will continue to do so, supported Ukraine with training, spare parts and maintenance of the vehicles.

Acknowledging that CV90 is a highly effective and modern combat vehicle, Sweden and Ukraine share the conviction that further cooperation on the CV90 platform will be mutually beneficial.

This Statement of Intent therefore symbolizes Sweden’s and Ukraine’s will to strengthen cooperation in production, operation, training, and servicing of the CV90 platform.

Sweden and Ukraine share the conviction that closer cooperation will contribute to competence building and further development of Western platforms. It will also open up possibilities for further, and closer, cooperation in the future.

This Statement of Intent should also be seen in light of the agreements between Sweden and Ukraine on protective security and defence procurement support, signed by both parties during the 12 July NATO Summit in Vilnius, symbolizing Sweden’s long-term commitment to support Ukraine in a broader sense.

Through this Statement of Intent, Sweden reconfirms its commitment to continue its strong support for Ukraine, for a s long as it takes.

(Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Swedish Prime Minister’s Office)

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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need. A CNIM Group Company

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