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Military And Security Developments
Apr 09.
US: Critical infrastructure faces heightened operational, security risks from Iranian threat actors. On 7 April, the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) reported that Iran-affiliated cyber threat actors have targeted critical national infrastructure (CNI) in the US since the onset of the Israel-US-Iran war. The attacks were mainly directed at government services, as well as water, wastewater and energy facilities. The threat actors infiltrated internet-facing operational technology (OT) within the facilities – responsible for monitoring and controlling industrial processes and physical services – before manipulating files and data. Some attacks allegedly resulted in temporary operational disruption and financial loss, though it is unclear whether the perpetrators directly tampered with the provision of services. Although the volume of these attacks will likely decrease following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire overnight on 7-8 April, this surge in activity demonstrates Iran’s intent and capability to manipulate its adversaries’ CNI. We assess that this underscores the heightened cyber security and operational risks facing US-based and -aligned infrastructure amid escalating geopolitical hostilities.
Apr 08.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
- DONETSK: Recent reports of a failed Ukrainian mechanised assault in the Pokrovsk area (Donetsk oblast) underscore the significant challenges associated with resuming manoeuvre warfare on the battlefield for both sides
- STRIKES: Russia’s heavy targeting of Ukrainian railway infrastructure will sustain logistical challenges, particularly in areas close to the frontline and adjacent rear areas
- WEAPONS: US President Donald Trump reportedly threatened to halt weapons supplies for Ukraine to pressure European allies to assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz
- SOUTHERN: Ukraine’s recent counter-attacks along the southern front are likely creating operational challenges for Russian forces, reinforcing strains on personnel and constraining Moscow’s ability to intensify operations elsewhere. On 6 April, a prominent Russian military blogger highlighted growing pressure on Russian positions in western Zaporizhzhia oblast, where Ukrainian forces have been conducting active, localised counter-attacks in recent months. Similar attacks have taken place north-west of Huliapole and in the direction of Oleksandrivka (Donetsk oblast). Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi claimed that Ukrainian forces have regained control of eight settlements in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also highlighted that Ukraine’s operational situation has significantly improved since the middle of 2025.
- SOUTHERN: On 5 April, a Ukrainian military observer noted that Ukrainian attacks have forced the Russian command to reallocate forces to the sector. Heavy losses elsewhere, combined with efforts to plug gaps in Zaporizhzhia, are likely increasing the pressure and limiting Russia’s ability to conduct simultaneous, multidirectional assaults at present. Syrskyi nonetheless warned that Russia remains committed to intensifying offensive operations and regrouping its available forces and equipment, despite significant losses. We assess that, despite the recent lull in Russian offensive operations (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 31 March 2026) and difficulties faced in western Zaporizhzhia, Russia will likely seek to intensify offensives, particularly in Donetsk oblast in the area of the so-called ‘fortress belt’ cities, as part of a wider spring offensive.
- DONETSK: Recent reports of a failed Ukrainian mechanised assault in the Pokrovsk area (Donetsk oblast) underscore the significant challenges associated with resuming manoeuvre warfare on the Russo-Ukrainian battlefield for both sides. On 2 and 3 April, various Ukrainian media outlets reported that Ukraine launched a mechanised assault on 31 March near Hryshyne, located to the west of Pokrovsk. A Russian elite Rubicon drone unit posted footage showing drones destroying a Ukrainian M1 Abrams tank, a BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle and a M1117 armoured security vehicle, as well as several hits on military personnel. The footage of destroyed Ukrainian vehicles later emerged online, likely confirming that the operation failed to achieve any tangible success and resulted in heavy losses – akin to similar Russian attacks.
- DONETSK: The failed Ukrainian attack has sparked significant online criticism against such assault tactics, which cause substantial losses and limited gains. Previously, Russian forces conducted mechanised assaults between 17 and 20 March, which similarly resulted in heavy losses and minimal territorial advances. Both cases highlight the difficulty of conducting mechanised assaults in a battlefield environment saturated with drone and artillery strikes, where any force is relatively easy to identify and interdict. Ultimately, these operations underscore that despite efforts to restore manoeuvre warfare to the battlefield, the current fighting’s highly attritional and positional nature will limit the scope for such a breakthrough in the coming months without a major operational collapse on either side.
- STRIKES: Russia’s heavy targeting of Ukrainian railway infrastructure will sustain logistical challenges, particularly in areas close to the front line and adjacent rear areas. On 6 April, the Kyiv Independent reported a steady increase in Russian long-range strikes against railway infrastructure in recent months. Ukraine’s national train operator, Ukrzaliznytsia, recorded 134 such attacks in January, 166 in February and 206 in March. High-risk areas typically include Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, with attacks occurring largely within a range of 60-70 miles (100-120km) from launch sites behind the front line. Russia’s ability to strike targets, particularly moving trains, beyond this range remains limited, exacerbated by the loss of satellite communications such as Starlink, which previously enabled enhanced control for drone operators. Ukrzaliznytsia also highlighted the difficulty of installing mitigation equipment directly onto trains, noting that the company is co-operating with the military to detect and respond to threats. Railway infrastructure will remain a priority target for Russian long-range strikes in eastern Ukraine in particular, especially as Russia gradually shifts its focus from targeting energy infrastructure with the end of the heating season in late March. Rail infrastructure in western Ukraine will also remain vulnerable, though to a lesser extent than in the east.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- WEAPONS: US President Donald Trump reportedly threatened to halt weapons supplies for Ukraine to pressure European allies to assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. According to a report on 1 April from the Financial Times, Trump threatened to withdraw from a NATO procurement scheme funded primarily by European countries (known as the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List; PURL). While we are unable to confirm the report, we previously assessed that a protracted Israel-US-Iran war will seriously threaten the supply of US-made weaponry to Ukraine. This includes the possibility of supplies being redirected to the Middle East region or (in our most dangerous scenario) being fully suspended. As of late March, no military aid committed to Kyiv under PURL has been redirected, nor have there been plans for supplies to be sent elsewhere, according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha.
- WEAPONS: Our assessment remains that the Middle East is a significantly higher priority for the Trump administration than Ukraine, with the US likely to maintain its position that Europe should primarily shoulder the responsibility of Ukraine’s security and defence needs. The Trump administration has thus far demonstrated a transactional approach towards aid for Ukraine. As such, if the Financial Times report is true, the US will possibly attempt to use Ukraine as a bargaining chip to shore up support from European allies should the Israel-US-Iran war protract or escalate in the short-to-medium term. However, given numerous European governments’ clear reticence or refusal to assist the US in military operations in the region (which is different from their broad willingness to support future post-war stabilisation efforts), the threat to Ukraine’s medium-to-long-term weapons supplies will remain elevated in the coming weeks. For further analysis on how the Trump administration will possibly increase pressure on Ukraine over the coming weeks, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 31 March 2026.
FORECAST
OIL: Ukraine will highly likely continue its strike campaign targeting Russian oil facilities over the coming weeks, in order to undermine the Kremlin’s ability to benefit from higher global crude prices resulting from the Israel-US-Iran war. Russia’s Ministry of Defence reported that on 6 April, Ukrainian drones targeted the Black Sea port of Novorossysk (Krasnodar krai); a key oil export hub, including for Kazakh crude oil. Furthermore, the Kyiv Independent reported there were Ukrainian drone attacks overnight on 6-7 April against Russia’s Baltic port of Ust-Luga (Leningrad oblast), an essential oil export node that has been recently targeted by similar attacks. The apparent effectiveness of such attacks highlights the continued vulnerability of Russian oil infrastructure, primarily due to the ongoing strain on air defence resources.
However, Ukrainian attacks alone will highly unlikely push the Kremlin to cease hostilities in the coming weeks or months. At present, the effect of these attacks on Russia’s overall hydrocarbon revenues remains limited, though there is scope for their impact to increase if attacks continue to scale up in intensity. (For our earlier assessment on how higher oil prices stand to benefit Russia amid the Middle East conflict, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 10 March 2026).
Earlier on 7 April, Bloomberg reported – citing data from commodity price reporting agency Argus Media – that Russian crude prices have reached a 13-year high, underscoring the potential windfall the country is experiencing amid the current global energy crisis. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s strategy is focused on offsetting this potential windfall. According to estimates from the Kyiv School of Economics, Russia lost approximately USD 970 million in revenue following attacks against two key Russian Baltic Sea oil export terminals. Primorsk and Ust-Luga (both Leningrad oblast) handle more than 40% of Russia’s seaborne crude exports. However, Russia primarily taxes oil extraction, rather than oil sales; simultaneously, Russia’s tax rate on oil extraction is linked to market prices. As such, strikes on oil export facilities are unlikely to weaken Russia’s ability to finance the war effort significantly. We also assess that such strikes will not encourage Moscow to agree to a moratorium on long-range strikes against energy infrastructure with Ukraine, as Kyiv has proposed.p
Nevertheless, Ukrainian long-range attacks against Russian oil infrastructure will possibly increase pressure from various international actors to halt such strikes, including from Kyiv’s most important partners. In an interview published on 4 April, the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, Kyrylo Budanov, stated that the government has received such requests. Although Budanov did not specify which countries have asked for a halt, reports from late March claimed that unspecified US officials had made requests of this nature to their Ukrainian counterparts. Aside from seeking to undermine Russian oil revenues, Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign also likely aims to bolster the country’s negotiating position if and when US-brokered peace talks resume. That said, Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russian oil facilities and oil terminals will possibly drive tensions with the Trump administration, as it seeks to stabilise global oil prices and availability amid the Israel-US-Iran war. We assess that heightened tensions stemming from ignored requests for Ukraine to either reduce or stop targeting Russian oil facilities will increase the risk of the US scaling back intelligence sharing, especially if the US authorities believe that such intelligence has aided Ukraine in conducting these attacks.
Apr 07
Kazakhstan-Russia: Intensified Ukrainian drone strikes will sustain disruption risk to oil exports. Earlier on 7 April, the Kazakh state authorities reported that oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) were stable, following Russian claims that Ukrainian drones had damaged CPC-linked loading facilities at Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk (Krasnodar krai). The Ukrainian military authorities have since confirmed the strike against oil infrastructure at Novorossiysk port. An unnamed source, quoted by the Kyiv Independent, stated that six of the port’s seven oil-loading berths were damaged. Ground infrastructure, including the pipeline control unit and oil metering station, was also hit. The incident forms part of a noticeable increase in Ukraine’s targeting of Russian oil facilities, which aims to undermine Moscow’s ability to profit from the global energy disruption caused by the Israel-US-Iran war. The CPC terminal in Novorossiysk handles around 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports. Ukrainian drone attacks in November 2025 and January 2026 caused significant disruption to Kazakh oil exports. Despite Kazakh reports of uninterrupted oil flows, we assess that the intensification of Ukrainian drone attacks will sustain an elevated risk of disruption to the country’s crude oil exports via Russia in the coming weeks, exacerbating global energy price hikes. (Source: Sibylline)
07 Apr 26. Ukrainian defence-tech company General Cherry and Croatian drone manufacturer Orqa – Europe’s leading UAV company – have signed a pioneering memorandum of cooperation. The deal will combine General Cherry’s operational excellence with Orqa’s technological expertise in a partnership that reflects the deep respect between both companies and countries. Made possible by Ukraine’s generous decision to share their unrivalled know-how in C-UAS interceptor drones and Orqa’s proven production capabilities, this agreement will maximize NATO resilience and enable European-built defenses to protect European skies, without depleting Ukraine’s own capabilities.
The partnership between leading Ukrainian and Croatian businesses is significant as both nations share a profound respect for sovereign independence, and will initially focus on the development and manufacture of interceptor drones, components, and other C-UAV systems. Work is already underway to establish joint manufacturing facilities in Croatia and Ukraine, with the first products expected in the near future.
“Today marks the beginning of a new chapter for our company and Ukrainian defence-tech as a whole. We are launching a major and promising partnership with a company that brings over a decade of experience and leading expertise in the UAV industry. Our shared goal is clear: to help build a new architecture of European and global security. Ukraine’s unique battlefield experience, combined with Orqa’s technological expertise, creates a powerful synergy. Together, we are ready to change the game”, said Yaroslav Gryshyn, co-founder of General Cherry.
Srdjan Kovacevic, Co-Founder and CEO of Orqa, said, “General Cherry’s real-world combat experience, combined with Orqa’s broad technical capabilities, creates a partnership with exceptional potential based on a trailblazing mutual manufacturing model. It is an important step forward for both parties and countries, enabling General Cherry’s highly effective interceptor drone capability to be available outside Ukraine for the first time. The result will strengthen the security framework of all allied nations.”
About General Cherry
General Cherry is among the leading UAV developers and producers in Ukraine, ranking #1 in interceptor drones and #1 among all FPV drone developers according to official data from the Army of Drones Bonus program. (Source: PR Newswire)
06 Apr 26. Ukraine brings private sector enterprise models into C-UAS defence.
“The pilot project launched by the Ukrainian Government to involve the private sector in the air defence system is already yielding initial results,” according to a Ukrainian defence ministry post of March 30. “One of the companies participating in the project has already formed its own air defence group.
“As of today, several enemy unmanned aerial vehicles, including Shahed and Zala drones, have been shot down in Kharkiv Oblast,” said the post. “At the same time, new air defence groups are being formed at 13 additional enterprises that have been granted authorized entity status by the Ministry of Defence. As of now, all groups are at different levels of readiness: some are already conducting combat missions, others are in the training phase, and others are completing their preparations and will soon strengthen the country’s air defence.”
Private air defence consortiums are integrated into the Air Force command-and-control system to protect their industrial facilities from Russian drone attacks. This enables rapid expansion of air defence capabilities without imposing additional strain on frontline units, says the ministry.
“We have created a model where the state, the military, and business operate as a unified system,” said Ukraine’s Minister of Defence, Mykhailo Fedorov.
This is another example of the Ukrainian government introducing competitive business models to scale the delivery of advanced technology to the battlefield. The government is also expanding its “Army of Drones Bonus” e-point system, through which front line units can gain points for the verified destruction of Russian assets and exchange the points for new technology.
Drone pilots and unit members record video evidence of destroyed machinery or personnel. Units upload this footage to the Delta situational awareness system, where it is verified by defence ministry officials. The destruction of a Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) typically earns between 10–50 points and one e-point is roughly equivalent to UAH 10,000 (or USD 242) in equipment value. Units can view their accumulated points and browse a catalogue of available technologies via the Brave1 Market within the Delta system, with systems delivered typically within ten days of ordering.
At the end of March the Ministry of Defence expanded the e-points system into new operational areas: sniper operations, mobile fire groups, and army aviation.
“E-Points have already changed the approach to warfare. This is about clear incentives, fair rewards, and the rapid scaling of effective solutions. Military units receive resources based on results: the more targets they destroy, the more points they earn. This is a direct incentive that enables units to strengthen their capabilities with new technologies,” said Ukraine’s Minister of Defence, Mykhailo Fedorov.
For more information
https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/private-air-defense-is-now-operational-first-intercepts-of-enemy-air-threats-confirmed
https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/total-russian-combat-losses-in-ukraine-as-of-march-31-2026 (Source: www.unmannedairspace.info)
07 Apr 26. Ukraine missile maker targets ‘game changer’ air defense system by 2027.
Fire Point, maker of Ukraine’s Flamingo cruise missile, is in talks with European companies to launch a new air defense system by next year, a senior executive told Reuters, creating a low-cost alternative to the increasingly hard-to-get Patriot system.
With governments seeking to defend their skies as the wars in Ukraine and Iran sow global instability, Fire Point’s co-founder and chief designer Denys Shtilierman said it aimed to slash the cost of intercepting a ballistic missile to below $1 million.
Shtilierman also said Fire Point was awaiting government approval for an investment by a Middle Eastern conglomerate that valued the company at $2.5 billion and would open the door to new business opportunities, including low-orbit satellite launches.
Years of know-how gained on the battlefield fighting Russian forces have made Ukraine a leading innovator in low-cost defense tech. With the outbreak of war in the Gulf, Kyiv has leveraged that expertise to sign security agreements with governments across the region.
Many Ukrainian defense firms are now seeking to export their excess capacity and cash in on a global boom in military spending. While the government recently loosened wartime export restrictions, each proposed deal is still subject to stringent checks and state approval.
DEVELOPING AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE PATRIOT SYSTEM
Ukraine and many other Western-allied nations rely heavily on the U.S.-made Patriot system to stop ballistic missiles.
But Patriot missiles are in increasingly short supply amid extensive deployment in the Gulf against Iranian attacks. And Europe’s only anti-ballistic system, the Italo-French SAMP/T, is produced in relatively small numbers.
To bring down a ballistic projectile, the Patriot system – manufactured by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin – often requires two or three air defense missiles, each costing several million dollars, Shtilierman said.
“If we can decrease it to less than $1 million, it will be … a game changer in air defense solutions,” he said in an interview. “We plan to intercept the first ballistic missile at the end of 2027.”
Denys Shtilerman, the Fire Point company chief designer and co-founder. (Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters)
Shtilierman declined to name the European companies involved in the discussions to develop the new system but said Fire Point is “deeply interested” in collaboration on radar, missile target-seeking and communications systems – areas where it lacks expertise.
European companies including Weibel, Hensoldt, SAAB and Thales have good radar solutions, he noted.
Founded after Moscow’s 2022 invasion, Fire Point is Ukraine’s biggest maker of the long-range drones used in the majority of strikes deep inside Russia.
In recent months, its FP5 long-range cruise missile – commonly known as the Flamingo – has also been used to hit Russian military facilities and arms factories, including a ballistic missile plant nearly 1,400 km (870 miles) inside Russian territory.
Shtilierman said Fire Point was now in the final stages of developing two supersonic ballistic missiles.
The smaller FP-7 missile, with a range of around 300 km, will have its first military deployment “in the close future”, he said, describing it as similar to Lockheed Martin’s ATACMS short-range ballistic system.
The larger FP-9, capable of carrying an 800 kg warhead up to 850 km, is about to enter testing and would place Moscow within range of Ukraine’s ballistic arsenal, he added.
Shtilierman said strikes on Moscow, which is ringed by some of the world’s most formidable air defenses, would cause a “mass shift in the Russian mind and the mind of top guys in Russia.”
Russia’s defense ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
Fabian Hoffmann, a missile expert and senior researcher at the Norwegian Defence University College, said that, while Russia has experience in successfully downing ATACMS, more widespread use of ballistic missiles could stretch Russian air defenses, already degraded by Ukrainian strikes.
And while Fire Point’s 2027 target for launching a low-cost air defense system was “ambitious”, he said that, beyond Ukraine’s own military needs, there would be strong demand from governments even if its kill rates per missile were less effective than the Patriot’s.
UAE INVESTMENT COULD START SATELLITE VENTURE
Ukraine’s anti-monopoly authority has until around October to decide on the proposed $760-million acquisition of a 30% stake in Fire Point by the Middle Eastern investor, Shtilierman said.
Ukrainian media have identified the suitor as Emirati defense firm Edge Group. Edge Group and Ukraine’s anti-monopoly authorities did not respond to a request for comment.
The investment would be the first step in a project to build a space launch terminal in the UAE, with the aim of eventually establishing a constellation of low-orbit European satellites. Shtilierman said the country’s location next to the Indian Ocean and geographical conditions were favorable for space launches.
“We built a carbon winding machine, which allows us to wind a big solid rocket booster for satellite delivery,” he said, noting the project remained at the conceptual stage although there were already agreements “with a couple of Western companies”.
Regardless of whether the UAE deal proceeds, Shtilierman said Fire Point would not take on further investors until after it had demonstrated success with its missile defense system, which will use the company’s FP7 missile. .
Fire Point has, meanwhile, received interest from Gulf states for purchases of its existing drone products and is awaiting approval from Ukraine’s government to begin exports. Shtilierman said the company has monthly capacity to export up to 2,500 long-range drones.
Exporting the Flamingo missile, however, is much more difficult due to regulatory barriers, he said.
Fire Point says it makes hundreds of long-range strike drones a day, each costing about 50,000 euros ($57,775) to produce, and three Flamingo missiles, at a cost of about 600,000 euros apiece. He acknowledged some “bottleneck” issues with the Flamingo, including with engine production.
Fire Point will increase production of the Flamingo when a new, in-house engine goes into mass production in October and a rocket fuel plant in Denmark comes online later this year, he said. The plant is awaiting two final approvals from Danish authorities. (Source: Defense News)
09 Apr 26. Tiberius Aerospace’s GRAIL enables Sovereign UK Production of Ukrainian Battlefield-Validated Technology. Tiberius Aerospace, a modern defence technology company supporting the UK, US and their allies with next-generation weapon systems and AI-powered solutions, today announced that technology validated in Ukrainian battlefields will be available for manufacturing in the United Kingdom through its proprietary platform GRAIL. This approach enables the UK’s dual-use manufacturing base to scale production of systems that have been tested and validated in real operational environments. The arrangement will provide the foundations for and a methodology to rapidly incorporate urgent operational requirements emerging from frontline activity and, by leveraging the benefits of GRAIL, strengthen national resilience through fast-paced production, while supporting an ally and increasing export growth.
GRAIL, already available on Tradewinds, the U.S. Department of War’s suite of tools designed to accelerate procurement and the adoption of data and analytics, is an AI-powered defence ecosystem developed by Tiberius Aerospace. It connects frontline demand directly to the industrial base, enabling faster, more iterative delivery of critical capabilities. By bringing together governments, primes, SMEs and innovators on a single secure platform, GRAIL shifts procurement away from static, programme-led cycles towards a continuous, demand-driven model of Defence-as-a-Service.
The agreement follows a significant policy shift to open export pathways for Ukrainian weapons systems, moving Ukraine from being a recipient of military support to an exporter of battlefield-proven innovation and technology. GRAIL provides a secure mechanism for allied nations to absorb and scale frontline technologies through distributed industrial production at speed and at scale. In doing so, it addresses a growing strategic imbalance. While adversaries iterate in real time, Western procurement systems currently remain constrained by long development cycles. The result is a widening gap between battlefield adaptation and industrial response.
Andy Baynes, Co-Founder of Tiberius Aerospace, said “Ukraine has shown us that modern warfare evolves in real time. Systems are adapted in weeks, not years, and effectiveness is proven under fire, not in theory. On the ground, I saw engineers developing and deploying updates to weapon systems in days to counter rapidly shifting threats. If you’re not able to iterate at that speed, you’re not just slow, you’re obsolete. By making Ukraine-validated IP available on GRAIL for UK manufacturing, we’re creating a direct link from frontline innovation to British industry, thereby strengthening sovereign capability, supporting domestic jobs and accelerating production at home. This is about moving beyond static platforms to an ecosystem that evolves continuously at the pace of the threat.”
Achi, CEO of Ark Robotics, a European technology company with a strong presence across the Ukrainian battlefield said: “Ark develops autonomous, affordable robotic systems built for rapid deployment and shaped by real operational feedback. This constant pressure ensures our technology remains grounded in reality, driving clarity and reliability in our engineering. As a European company, we focus on testing and validating our systems so they are proven in real-world conditions. Through GRAIL, we can then access UK manufacturing capacity to scale production of these validated systems quickly and efficiently.”
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