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Military And Security Developments
Mar 25.
*Baltic region: Drone incursions underscore Russo-Ukrainian war spillover risks. Earlier on 25 March, a drone entered Estonian airspace and struck a chimney at the Auvere power station (Ida-Viru county). The authorities believe that the drone entered from Russian airspace by accident and was not directed to target Estonia. There were no injuries and no immediate damage to the power plant. Also on 25 March, another drone entered Latvian airspace from Russia and crashed in Dobročina village (Krāslava region). There were no injuries. Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa stated that initial information indicates that the drone was Ukrainian. Both incidents reportedly took place during a Ukrainian attack on Russia’s Ust-Luga port, located on the Baltic coast near the Estonian border. On 23 March, a drone entered Lithuania’s airspace and crashed into a frozen lake near the border with Belarus. The authorities believe that this drone was also part of a Ukrainian attack on the Russian Primorsk oil-loading terminal; it was highly likely sent off course by Russian jamming. We assess that the incidents underscore persistent regional tensions and the risk of ‘spillover effects’ stemming from the Russo-Ukrainian war, as well as potential air defence gaps over the Baltic region.
Mar 17.
Ukraine: Russia-linked operations sustain long-term security, cyber espionage risks to firms. On 13 March, the cyber security company S2 Grupo reported that a cyber espionage operation had targeted Ukrainian entities throughout February. There were two observed versions of the campaign. Both campaigns used phishing emails containing charity- and judicial-themed lures to trick users into deploying an LNK file. This ultimately executed an HTML file via the browser that deployed a JavaScript-based backdoor (‘DRILLAPP’), granting access to local file systems, camera, microphone as well as screen capture without user interaction. The second version of the campaign used a similar infection chain; however, DRILLAPP had added features including file enumeration, batch file uploads and arbitrary file downloads, highlighting its continuous development. Researchers noted that these operations have overlaps with a campaign in January conducted by Russian state-sponsored threat group ‘Laundry Bear’ (also known as ‘Void Blizzard’), underscoring the long-term security and cyber espionage risks Ukrainian entities face from Russia-aligned groups as Russia continues to evolve its cyber strategy.
Mar 15.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
- OFFENSIVES: Over the past few days, Russian forces have intensified their assaults across multiple fronts, likely signalling the start of their spring offensive
- STRIKES: Ukraine continues to target Russia’s oil infrastructure intensely as part of its ongoing efforts to reduce Russian hydrocarbon revenues, but amid the global energy crisis, this will likely drive tensions
- AID: The EU’s failure to overcome Hungary’s block on a EUR 90 billion (approximately USD 104 billion) loan at a summit on 19 March, combined with parliamentary infighting jeopardising the unlocking of IMF funding, will sustain budgetary pressures for Ukraine
- FORECAST: Recent talks between Ukraine and the US were highly likely aimed at maintaining dialogue as the Israel-US-Iran war otherwise stalls trilateral peace negotiations with Russia
- OFFENSIVES: Over the past few days, Russian forces have intensified their assaults across multiple fronts, likely signalling the start of their spring offensive. On 23 March, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that between 17 and 20 March, Russia launched 619 assaults across multiple points on the frontline. The Pokrovsk sector and Oleksandrivka area (both Donetsk oblast; the latter situated at the intersection of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts), have reportedly recorded the largest number of Russian assaults. Russian forces are likely focusing efforts on Ukraine’s so-called ‘fortress belt of cities’ in Donetsk oblast (namely Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk), with attacks particularly intense in the Kostiantynivka and Lyman directions. Syrskyi noted that Russia is attempting to take advantage of deteriorating weather conditions to intensify its offensive operations, expecting that this will reduce the effectiveness of Ukrainian reconnaissance, drone and artillery strikes. Reports also confirm ongoing Russian troop movements and an escalation in battlefield air interdiction activities, including artillery, drone and aviation strikes across several areas.
- OFFENSIVES: Russia has resumed mechanised assaults, which are causing significant losses. According to Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState, Russian forces have advanced in several small villages, albeit at a high cost. Syrskyi recently claimed that Russia lost 8,710 soldiers (killed or seriously wounded) between 17 and 20 March alone; he also stated that Russian forces are currently losing more than 1,000 soldiers per day. While we are unable to corroborate this figure, it aligns with our assessment that Russian offensive tactics are highly attritional in nature, particularly as Moscow has resorted to mechanised assaults that increase troops’ exposure to Ukrainian strikes. For instance, on 19 March Russian forces launched a roughly battalion-sized mechanised assault in the Lyman direction, involving around 500 troops and dozens of vehicles.
- OFFENSIVES: We assess that Russia is unlikely to take control of Ukraine’s ‘fortress belt’ cities in 2026, though the sustained intensification of its offensive operations across the frontline will likely add significant pressure to Ukrainian defences. We continue to assess that recent Ukrainian counter-attacks in the direction of Huliapole (Zaporizhzhia oblast) and in the Oleksandrivka direction have likely forced the Russian command to deploy additional personnel to counter localised Ukrainian advances. This has likely weakened Russia’s ability to concentrate offensive efforts elsewhere, especially as Russia is suffering high personnel losses due to the attritional nature of its assaults. However, we continue to assess that these losses are relatively sustainable. Reports from Ukrainian military sources indicate that Russian forces continue to rely on poorly trained personnel in their current offensives. Nevertheless, if Russia is able to maintain its current tempo across various frontline points in the coming months, it will likely increasingly pressure Ukrainian forces, which are facing an even more difficult personnel situation.
- STRIKES: Russia continues to launch semi-regular, high-intensity combined strikes, as evidenced by an attack earlier on 24 March. This latest assault involved 392 drones, seven Iskandr-M/S-400 ballistic missiles, 18 Kh-101 cruise missiles, five Iskandr-K cruise missiles and four Kh-59/69/31 cruise missiles. Ukrainian forces have reported intercepting 365 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and 25 cruise missiles. The attack caused damage to 11 Ukrainian oblasts, with neighbouring Moldova reporting that a key power line linking it to Europe was damaged (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 24 March 2026). Power outages were also reported in Kharkiv, Kherson, Odesa, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. We assess that Russian strikes will likely become increasingly destructive due to the worsening situation of Ukraine’s air defences, which are caused partly by the declining availability of interceptors due to the Israel-US-Iran war.
- STRIKES: Ukraine continues to target Russia’s oil infrastructure intensely as part of its ongoing efforts to reduce Russian hydrocarbon revenues. Ukraine’s General Staff confirmed that drone strikes took place against key fuel and energy facilities at the Russian oil port of Primorsk (Leningrad oblast) on 23 March. Satellite imagery shows fires near both crude and product loading terminals; shipping information quoted by Bloomberg indicates a halt in operations at both facilities. Primorsk is an essential oil export hub, processing around 1 million barrels of crude oil and diesel per day. Separately, the Ukrainian General Staff reported a strike against the Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim oil refinery in Russia’s Republic of Bashkortostan. The facility has an oil processing capacity of approximately 6-8 million tonnes per year and is located roughly 870 miles (1,400km) from the Ukrainian border. While the extent of the damage is currently being assessed, if it is confirmed, the wide dispersion of these targets would underscore Ukraine’s expanding long-range drone capabilities. Nevertheless, while they are a core part of Ukraine’s strategy against Russia, attacks against hydrocarbon infrastructure are likely to spark an increase in tensions amid significant oil price volatility due to the Israel-US-Iran war, which has disrupted global oil flows, particularly via the Strait of Hormuz.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- AID: The EU’s failure to overcome Hungary’s blocking of a EUR 90 billion (approximately USD 104 billion) loan at a summit on 19 March, combined with parliamentary infighting’s impact on unlocking IMF funding, will sustain budgetary pressures for Ukraine in the near term. Kyiv has until the end of March to pass unpopular tax increases, which are required to unlock funding as part of an USD 8 billion IMF programme. This week is the Ukrainian parliament’s last plenary week for March. According to lawmaker Yaroslav Zheleznyak, the likelihood of a legislative breakthrough on either 25 or 26 March is limited, despite the urgency to unlock funding. We assess that Kyiv will possibly seek to renegotiate or extend the deadline with the IMF in case the parliament fails to pass the tax reforms by the end of the month, which is becoming an increasingly realistic prospect.
- ENERGY: Reuters reported earlier on 24 March that the European Commission will no longer present a proposal to permanently ban imports of Russian oil on 15 April as previously planned, likely due to oil market volatility amid the Israel-US-Iran war. The proposal would enshrine into law a full phase-out of Russian oil imports by the end of 2027. However, an unnamed EU official said the proposal has not been cancelled, adding that it would instead be published at a later date. Since the beginning of 2022, when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, EU imports of Russian oil have decreased from 27% to 2% (as per figures provided by the European Commission in February 2026). As such, the development is highly unlikely to represent a significant shift in the EU’s policy as it seeks to phase out Russian energy over the longer term.
FORECAST
NEGOTIATIONS: The recent talks between Ukraine and the US highly likely aimed to maintain a dialogue, as the Israel-US-Iran war has stalled trilateral peace negotiations with Russia. Between 21 and 22 March, Ukrainian and US negotiators held talks in Miami (US). According to Secretary of National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine Rustem Umerov, the talks focused on security guarantees and humanitarian issues, namely exchanges of prisoners of war (POWs). Meanwhile, following the first day of negotiations, US special envoy Steve Witkoff stated that discussions centred on ‘narrowing and resolving’ remaining issues to move towards a peace agreement.
Despite such positive public assessments of the talks, we assess that a major breakthrough towards peace remains unlikely in the coming weeks and months. In the short-to-medium term, a prolonged Israel-US-Iran war will highly likely continue to divert the US’ attention away from efforts to broker an end to the Russo-Ukrainian war. Although trilateral negotiations have failed to yield tangible progress thus far, they were held relatively regularly since late January, with the last round taking place in mid-February. While the recent US-Ukraine talks show that the Trump administration is willing (for now) to continue engaging in the peace process, we assess that bilateral talks will unlikely bridge the gap between the positions of the warring parties.
In this vein, reports following the recent Ukraine-US negotiations indicate that the Trump administration will possibly increase pressure on Ukraine to make significant territorial concessions, in order to expedite an end to the Russo-Ukrainian war. Earlier on 24 March, an unspecified insider close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that the US may abandon the peace process if there is no substantial progress. The source stated that this would enable the Trump administration to focus on hostilities in the Middle East and the November midterm elections. We assess that these are higher priorities for the US; as such, the Israel-US-Iran war’s continuation will increase the likelihood of the Trump administration disengaging from efforts to end the Russo-Ukrainian war in the coming weeks and months. Simultaneously, the US is reportedly pushing Ukraine to withdraw from areas of the Donbas region (i.e. Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) that are currently under Ukrainian control. This is both a key issue in peace negotiations and a long-standing Russian war objective. According to an unspecified Ukrainian insider close to the negotiations, Ukraine’s team has proposed alternatives, such as creating a demilitarised economic zone. However, the Trump administration reportedly continues to favour Ukraine’s withdrawal from the area.
Ceding Ukrainian-controlled territory in Donetsk oblast (which forms part of Donbas) will highly likely remain deeply unpopular within Ukrainian society and a non-starter for Kyiv over the coming months. We continue to assess that the future status of Donbas is one of, if not the, thorniest issues in peace talks. As such, an agreement on the matter is highly unlikely in the near term. Notably, reports claim that the US negotiating team is referring to vague agreements reached at a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump in Alaska (US) in August 2025. While it remains unknown what precisely was agreed, Russian officials have often mentioned the ‘spirit of Anchorage’ to imply mutual understanding with the US on key issues. As such, apparent Russia-US alignment on the issue of Donbas will likely maintain pressure on Kyiv to agree to this concession. However, without serious security guarantees (or, in the most dangerous scenario, a Ukrainian military collapse), this is unlikely in the short term.
Russia and Ukraine will likely continue their efforts to gain favour with the Trump administration amid the Israel-US-Iran war, to improve their respective negotiating positions; as seen with Kyiv’s offers to share drone expertise. On 20 March, Politico reported that Russia proposed to halt intelligence sharing with Iran (including providing the co-ordinates of US military assets in the Middle East region) if the US ceased supplying Ukraine with intelligence. The outlet claimed that the US rejected the proposal after Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev floated it during talks in Miami earlier in March. Dmitriev, however, denied Politico’s report. US intelligence has helped Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes against Russian energy facilities in recent months. However, the US has previously temporarily suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 6 March 2025). We assess that a continuation or escalation of the Israel-US-Iran war will increase the likelihood of the Trump administration agreeing to a similar Russian proposal, especially if progress towards resolving the Russo-Ukrainian war remains limited.
Mar 13.
- Russia: Alleged Ukrainian strikes against gas infrastructure will likely heighten regional tensions. On 11 March, Russia’s state-owned gas company Gazprom claimed that Ukrainian drones had targeted its facilities in southern Russia connected to the TurkStream and Blue Stream pipelines. According to Gazprom, the attacks were thwarted but the sites have been targeted 12 times over the past two weeks. These claims have not been visually verified by independent sources; the Ukranian authorities have not commented on them. Nevertheless, energy infrastructure remains a priority target of Kyiv’s long-range strike campaign. Hungary, Serbia, Slovakia and Turkey continue to receive energy supplies via TurkStream. Slovakia and Hungary have already been affected by the disruption of Russian oil exports via the Druzhba pipeline, which passes through Ukraine, and both governments accuse Kyiv of deliberately failing to restore oil flows. Even if unconfirmed, the latest alleged incident is highly likely to exacerbate tensions with Slovakia and Hungary, both of which have adopted increasingly vocal anti-Ukraine positions, as well as Turkey and Serbia. Additionally, real or alleged Ukrainian strikes against Russian energy sites amid the war in the Middle East, will possibly harm Ukrainian relations with the White House, which is determined to contain energy price rises.
* Armenia: Pro-Russia destabilisation campaigns will highly likely increase ahead of election On 11 March, a member of an Armenian independent election observation group claimed that an unspecified opposition party has reserved a ‘large number’ of buses to transport voters (mostly from Russia) to participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections. According to the election observation group Independent Observer, the buses have been booked for the end of May and the beginning of the following month ahead of the elections on 7 June. While we cannot confirm this, we assess the report is highly likely credible. Strained relations between Armenia and Russia in recent years have decreased the latter’s influence in Yerevan, though Armenia still remains largely dependent on Russia (specifically for trade). Russia will almost certainly support pro-Moscow forces ahead of the elections, as well as exploit vulnerabilities in Armenian domestic politics and society in an attempt to influence the vote . Aside from attempts to influence the vote on polling day, Russia will likely intensify its mal-, mis- and dis-information campaigns over the coming months in a bid to shape the outcome. (Source: Sibylline)
19 Mar 26. Leaders Address War in Ukraine, Russia Threat. President Donald J. Trump’s administration is negotiating with Russia and Ukraine to secure a durable peace based on credible security guarantees, beginning with a strong Ukraine and Europe, said Daniel L. Zimmerman, assistant secretary of war for international security affairs, during a House Armed Services Committee hearing today. It is important that allies act urgently to provide Ukraine with the necessary resources for deterrence and defense. Over 20 European nations have pledged more than $4 billion to the Pearl Initiative so far, he said.
Building on this support, Zimmerman highlighted that the Pearl Initiative, which was launched last year, enables European countries to jointly procure and transfer weapons to Ukraine.
“Russia still retains deep reservoirs of military and industrial power and the national resolve to sustain protracted war. Moreover, Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal and invests in capabilities, which could be used coercively just short of nuclear confrontation,” Zimmerman said.
“The U.S. stands with NATO, but if burden sharing becomes misaligned or thinly spread, this is not healthy for an alliance, and we want NATO to be as strong as it can be for the long term,” he said.
Expanding on these concerns, Air Force Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, commander, U.S. European Command and NATO supreme allied commander Europe, testified that the United States faces a complex and evolving global security environment.
“Growing cooperation between Russia, North Korea, Iran and the People’s Republic of China has increased military risk across multiple theaters and domains,” Grynkewich said.
In Europe, North Korean troops and materiel, Iranian drone technology and Chinese economic support enable Moscow to sustain its war in Ukraine, the general added.
“Despite significant losses in Ukraine, Russia retains the capability and the capacity to threaten U.S. interests with its large and increasingly diverse nuclear stockpile, asymmetric capabilities and competent ground, air and maritime forces,” Grynkewich said.
(Source: U.S. DoD)
12 Mar 26: European countries mull alternatives to EUR90bn EU loan for Ukraine. European countries are considering alternative ways to provide Ukraine with much-needed funds to support its war effort amid continued blocking of a EUR90 billion EU loan by Hungary and Slovakia. Politico reports that the Baltic and Nordic countries have a backup plan to support Ukraine in the short-term, with the EU’s Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis stating: “We will deliver on this loan one way or another.”
In other news, Ukraine is sending teams of counter-UAS experts to the Middle East to aid Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE with their efforts to combat Iranian Shahed drones. It comes as Gulf countries used more advanced US-made Patriot interceptors in the first days of the Iran conflict than Ukraine has managed to acquire over four years of conflict.
23 Mar 26. In alignment with the defence priorities set out by the Ukrainian Government, Quantum Systems has been tasked by the Security and Defence Forces of Ukraine to deliver 15,000 interceptor drones. This follows the investment in Ukrainian unmanned systems manufacturer WIY Drones, which will produce and service its combat-proven interceptor technologies in the country. Ukraine, 23 March 2026: Drone interceptors (c-UAS) have become an essential capability for Ukraine in countering Russian attack drones. As part of Ukraine’s priority to close its sky and to achieve effective air defence, Quantum Systems has been tasked to provide 15,000 interceptor drones to the National Guard of Ukraine.
This follows Quantum Systems’ investment in the Ukrainian unmanned systems manufacturer WIY Drones, a company specializing in the development and production of interceptor drones, reconnaissance and strike UAVs, as well as ground control stations and related systems.
The company’s production of the STRILA interceptor drone (Ukrainian for arrow), which is specifically designed to intercept fast and maneuvering aerial targets, will be scaled through the combined effort of both companies. Production of the STRILA system will initially be expanded in Ukraine to address the urgent operational demand, with future exports of surplus production being a possibility.
Further information on STRILA and upcoming plans for joint interceptor development and production between Quantum Systems and WIY Drones will be published shortly.
Sven Kruck, Co-CEO of Quantum Systems, said: “Ukrainian engineers have developed some of the most effective counter-drone technologies in the world. Quantum Systems brings these solutions to industrial scale and helps Ukraine close its sky.”
The partnership reflects Quantum Systems’ broader strategy of supporting combat-proven Ukrainian innovation and bringing it to scale for both Ukraine and international partners. (Source: Clarion)
23 Mar 26. Ukraine Receives High-Speed JEDI Drones to Intercept Shaheds. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has codified and approved for operation the JEDI Shahed Hunter unmanned aerial vehicle complex of Ukrainian production. The high-speed interceptor drones included in this complex successfully destroy Russian attack drones of the Shahed, Geran, and Gerbera types.
Characteristics
JEDI Shahed Hunter is a copter-type aerial drone with vertical take-off. Equipped with a lightweight and durable frame, four high-performance electric motors and a capacitive battery.
With a total weight of just over 4 kg, the drone carries up to 500 grams of payload. This is enough to destroy a strike drone. And the power of its engines is enough to accelerate the drone to over 350 km/h and rise to an altitude of up to 6 km.
Target Location
JEDI Shahed Hunter receives data from radar stations automatically. This allows interceptor drones to enter the target area more quickly and destroy it quickly.
The drone receives target designations from radar stations and can automatically lock onto targets.
The system is capable of covering an airspace within a radius of up to 40 km, strengthening countermeasures against Russian drones.
The ground control station ensures the coordination of the flight of this copter, stable communication and accuracy of use. JEDI Shahed Hunter can automatically acquire and aim at the target. In addition, it is equipped with day and thermal imaging cameras, which allows it to perform tasks day and night.
Technical Specifications
- Vertical takeoff
- Weight — 4 kg
- Speed up to over 350 km/h
- Capable of reaching an altitude of up to 6 km
- Day and thermal imaging cameras for round-the-clock operation
As a reminder, sky protection is a top priority of Ukraine’s War Plan . The goal is to identify 100% of air threats in real time and intercept at least 95% of missiles and drones.
Sources: Ministry of Defence, Ukraine; MILITARNYI
(Source: UAS VISION)
26 Mar 26. C-UAS Hub said today that Germany to fund 15,000 Ukrainian STRILA interceptor drones for air defense. Germany has agreed to finance the production of 15,000 Ukrainian-made STRILA interceptor drones for Ukraine’s National Guard, in a move aimed at strengthening the country’s defenses against persistent aerial threats. The agreement, reported March 23, includes not only the drones themselves but also training, logistics support and continued development of unmanned systems. According to Ukrainian and European reporting citing the German Embassy in Kyiv, the systems will be produced domestically in Ukraine to speed delivery to frontline units.
STRILA interceptor drones are designed to engage fast-moving aerial targets, including Iranian-designed Shahed-type drones that Russia has used extensively in strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
Production will be carried out through cooperation between German firm Quantum Systems and Ukrainian manufacturer WIY Drones. The partnership is intended to scale output quickly while leveraging Ukraine’s existing drone manufacturing base.
Officials have emphasized that local production is key to ensuring faster deployment, particularly as Ukraine continues to face large-scale drone attacks.
Interceptor drones playing growing role
The investment comes as interceptor drones have become an increasingly important part of Ukraine’s layered air defense. Ukrainian military officials have reported that such systems are already responsible for a significant share of successful interceptions.
In February alone, Ukrainian interceptor drones destroyed more than 1,500 Russian drones, according to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. He said interceptor crews conducted roughly 6,300 sorties during the month, maintaining effectiveness despite harsh weather conditions and ongoing equipment shortages.
In and around Kyiv, interceptor drones accounted for more than 70 percent of successful engagements against incoming Shahed-type drones during that period, underscoring their growing role in Ukraine’s air defense network.
The German-funded program reflects a broader effort by Kyiv’s partners to support scalable, lower-cost solutions to counter mass drone attacks, which have strained traditional air defense systems reliant on expensive missile interceptors.
Germany to fund 15,000 Ukrainian STRILA interceptor drones for air defense – cuashub.com
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