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Military And Security Developments
Mar 11.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
- OFFENSIVES: Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief has stated that his forces are continuing counter-offensive operations along the southern frontline, though we assess that these are counter-attacks, rather than a large offensive
- MARITIME: We assess that the threshold for attacks at sea is lowering across European waters (including outside the Black Sea) amid the Israel-US-Iran war, which both Russia and Ukraine will possibly exploit, likely further driving already-rising insurance premiums
- DRONES: Ukraine’s willingness to assist the US and its Middle Eastern partners in countering Iranian aerial threats such as Shahed drones is likely aimed at retaining Western support, particularly from Washington DC
- FORECAST: Russia will highly likely be a net beneficiary of higher oil prices as a result of a protracted Israel-US-Iran war, which would bolster its ability to sustain its war in Ukraine in the medium-to-long term.
- OFFENSIVES: On 9 March, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian forces are continuing counter-offensive operations along the southern frontline, though we continue to assess that these are counter-attacks, rather than a large offensive effort. Previously on 8 March, President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Ukraine’s efforts on the southern front had liberated around 168 square miles (435 sq km) in eastern Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, though this figure remains unverified. However, a Ukrainian regiment commander has downplayed the scale of these operations, arguing that Ukrainian actions do not constitute a full counter-offensive. This assessment aligns with our understanding of the situation; since late 2025, Ukrainian forces have conducted various successful localised counter-attacks aimed at improving tactical positions and stabilising the frontline in areas where Russian forces had previously made rapid gains, particularly towards Huliapole (Zaporizhzhia; see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 6 January 2026). According to the Ukrainian commander, Russia’s objective during this period has involved advancing to a position from which its artillery can strike Zaporizhzhia City more effectively, though this has likely stalled.
- OFFENSIVES: There are growing indications that these Ukrainian counter-attacks are forcing Russia to redeploy units in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, likely placing additional pressure on the Kremlin’s spring offensive preparations. Recent reports from open-source intelligence (OSINT) sources suggest that the Russian command has likely relocated elite units from the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) and elements from the Russian Naval Infantry from Pokrovsk and Dobropillia (both Donetsk oblast) to Zaporizhzhia. If confirmed, this would likely aim to stabilise the southern front, strengthen offensive capabilities and regain offensive momentum in the area. According to a prominent Ukrainian military observer, Ukraine’s recent actions have compelled Russian forces to slow the pace of their offensive and, in some areas, shift to an active defensive posture. The observer noted that Ukrainian operations are designed less to achieve a breakthrough and more to disrupt Russia’s planned summer offensive.
- OFFENSIVES: Continued Ukrainian pressure through localised counter-attacks is likely forcing Russia to reprioritise competing operational objectives in Zaporizhzhia oblast. According to the above-mentioned Ukrainian military observer, due to the limited availability of reserves, Moscow remains unable to pursue a large-scale effort to encircle Orikhiv, located in south-eastern Zaporizhzhia oblast and one of Russia’s key objectives. We assess that Russia will likely prioritise smaller tactical advances towards nearby settlements like Novopavlivka and Chervona Krynytsia (both Zaporizhzhia oblast), located to the west and north-east of Orikhiv, respectively.
- STRIKES: Russia continued its daily strike campaign during our reporting period, along with semiregular large-scale, high-intensity aerial assaults such as overnight on 6-7 March. The attack involved 13 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles, two Tsirkon cruise missiles, four Kalibr cruise missiles and 480 Shahed-type drones. The strikes heavily targeted residential, energy, port and rail infrastructure nationwide. We assess that Russia’s ability to maintain its current pace of aerial strikes is placing significant pressure on Ukraine’s air defence resources, particularly amid the uncertain resupply of air defence systems and interceptors from Western countries due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. We assess that the Israel-US-Iran war will have little impact on Russia’s ability to maintain this strike campaign, given that it has long been self-sufficient in both missile and Shahed-type drone production, so that transfers from Iran are no longer necessary.
- STRIKES: According to German media outlets, the German Federal Ministry of Defence has assembled a package of 30 Patriot system interceptors (PAC-3) for Ukraine sourced from European partners, alongside a further five interceptors from German military stockpiles. The German authorities have not confirmed these figures. The delivery is expected to take place in the coming weeks. While this move will slightly alleviate the ongoing pressure on Ukraine’s air defences, the numbers remain relatively limited. Russia’s increasingly frequent missile launches (particularly ballistic missiles) will continue to place significant strain on interceptor stockpiles, including PAC-3.
- MARITIME: We assess that the threshold for attacks at sea is lowering across European waters amid the Israel-US-Iran war, which both Russia and Ukraine will possibly exploit, likely further driving already-rising insurance premiums. On the evening of 4 March, the Ukrainian authorities reported a Russian drone attack against a civilian cargo ship in Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Chornomorsk (Odesa oblast). This came after a Russia-flagged liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker caught fire in the Mediterranean Sea on 3 March, with Moscow accusing Kyiv of carrying out a naval drone attack against the vessel. Ukrainian forces have also continued targeting Russian military naval assets. For instance, overnight on 1-2 March, Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale drone strike (involving around 200 drones) against the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk (Krasnodar krai). The attack damaged various naval vessels and oil facilities.
- MARITIME: The latest incidents clearly underscore not only an uptick in hostilities in the Black Sea, but also the potential for further military action in the Mediterranean Sea amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. We assess that attacks against military and civilian naval assets are likely to increase in the coming weeks, particularly as the Israel-US-Iran war has diverted Western attention, thereby lowering the threshold for such attacks. We assess that Russia and Ukraine will likely target civilian commercial ships heading towards each other’s ports in retaliation for strikes against military and civilian naval assets. We also assess that Ukraine is more likely than Russia to attack vessels in the Mediterranean Sea at present – meaning that Russian ‘shadow fleet’ vessels are much more vulnerable than Western-linked shipping. The latest incidents will likely raise risk assessments for ships sailing to Ukrainian and Russian port terminals, driving up war insurance costs particularly for vessels operating in the Black Sea. This is highly likely to affect the crucial shipment of grain, oil and oil products.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- EU: Politico reported on 5 March that unspecified EU ambassadors recently pushed back against a proposal to fast-track Ukraine’s accession to the bloc, further supporting our assessment that Kyiv’s membership remains highly unlikely in the long term. The proposal outlines replacing the EU’s current accession framework with a two-tier membership model that would accelerate Ukraine’s path to joining the EU. In late January, Zelensky set the ambitious target of 2027 for Ukraine’s entry into the bloc. Kyiv is also seeking to enshrine a date for EU membership as part of a potential peace deal, likely as a post-war security guarantee (see Sibylline Special Report – 5 February 2026). Although the EU’s enlargement commissioner Marta Kos has expressed support for amending existing accession rules, we assess that a consensus on fast-tracking Ukraine’s EU membership is highly unlikely in the coming weeks and months.
- DRONES: Ukraine’s willingness to assist the US and its Middle Eastern partners in countering Iranian aerial threats such as Shahed drones is likely aimed at retaining Western support, particularly from Washington DC. President Zelensky told The New York Times that Ukraine sent interceptor drones and a team of anti-drone specialists to help protect US bases in Jordan after a request from Washington DC. The US has not officially confirmed Zelensky’s statements. Zelensky said 11 nations, including European and Middle Eastern states, have sought co-operation on Ukraine’s interceptor technologies, electronic warfare (EW) systems and training. Ukrainian forces have gained significant experience in countering cost-effective drones such as the Iranian Shahed models, which Russia produces and uses extensively in its own strikes.
- DRONES: That said, we assess that Ukraine is likely to have limited resources to redeploy to the Middle East due to its current focus on countering Russia’s daily strikes. The latest move is highly likely part of Kyiv’s diplomatic effort aimed at retaining Western support, particularly that of the US, especially given that the Middle East crisis has likely further threatened already faltering US support for Ukraine (including on air defences – see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 3 March 2026). However, this is unlikely to result in a significant policy shift in Ukraine’s favour from the US in the near term. The move also aims to bolster support from countries in the region that have traditionally maintained cordial ties with Russia, further boosting Ukraine’s diplomatic position vis-à-vis Abu Dhabi-hosted talks, for example.
- For further analysis and scenario planning around how the war will evolve in 2026 and beyond, see our updated Sibylline Strategic Risk Forecast – 6 January 2026 and Sibylline Ukraine Monthly Forecast – 26 February 2026.
Global: Adversarial entities face heightened cyber espionage risks from Russian state actors. On 9 March, the Dutch security services reported that unnamed Russian state-sponsored actors are targeting global military and government officials in a large-scale cyber espionage operation. The threat actors use social engineering techniques on the popular messaging platforms Signal and WhatsApp to infiltrate targeted systems. Some attacks reportedly distribute a fake chat bot that requests a unique verification code under the pretence of blocking suspicious activity. The code then enables threat actors to covertly hijack user accounts and monitor confidential communications. Alternatively, the threat actors exploit the ‘linked devices’ feature to trick users into scanning a QR code, which subsequently logs into a user account on a new device, providing threat actors with monitoring capabilities. Russian threat actors often abuse legitimate messaging applications to obtain strategic intelligence from high-interest individuals. This latest campaign highlights the expansion of Moscow’s targets and capabilities, heightening security and cyber espionage risks to global, adversarial entities. (Source: Sibylline)
07 Mar 26. UK reveals military maintenance facilities in Ukraine for first time. The UK has revealed for the first time its maintenance, repair and overhaul systems (MRO) facilities in Ukraine, with four operational and a fifth planned.
- The UK has revealed for the first time its maintenance, repair and overhaul facilities in Ukraine.
- UK Defence Minister meets staff getting battle-damaged fighting vehicles back to the frontline faster.
- Largest ever UK-led international trade mission with a record 35 British firms.
Operated under MOD contracts by UK companies with British and Ukrainian workforces, these facilities repair armoured vehicles and equipment – including UK-gifted CVR-T armoured vehicles, Husky support vehicles, L119 light guns and former Soviet-era kit, returning them to Ukrainian forces faster. It includes all AS-90 artillery systems donated by the UK, and our collaboration with Swedish partners means we are also able to support the Swedish Archer artillery systems.
The UK has been working since Russia’s illegal full-scale invasion in 2022 to establish engineering sites in Ukraine, operated under MOD contracts by UK companies with a skilled UK and Ukrainian workforce.
Locating these facilities in Ukraine ensures that armoured vehicles and equipment are repaired quickly and returned to Ukrainian forces faster, bolstering Ukraine’s Armed Forces – providing highly-skilled, well-paid jobs for Ukrainians.
British engineers are on the ground in Ukraine, working side-by-side with Ukrainian counterparts to service and repair military vehicles. Minister for Defence Readiness and Industry, Luke Pollard, visited one of the sites in Ukraine this week, speaking with those working around the clock to help keep Ukraine in the fight.
Minister for Defence Readiness and Industry, Luke Pollard MP, said:
While the world’s attention is focussed on conflict across the Middle East, the UK is standing firmer with our friends in Ukraine. Visits to Ukraine have always been deeply poignant for me – the UK will never waver in our support for Ukraine and we are clear that Ukraine’s security is Britain’s security.
From the factory floor to the frontline, the UK is standing with Ukraine. Our pioneering facilities are helping keep Ukraine’s defiant Armed Forces in the fight against Putin’s brutal attacks, and British firms are boosting long term industrial production in Ukraine and partnering with Ukrainian companies to benefit both our nations.
As part of his visit, Defence Minister Pollard led the seventh Trade Mission to Ukraine, the largest in the series, with five international partners, over 80 delegates and 55 companies – including a record 35 British firms. The trade mission was run by ADS Group, the trade association for the UK’s aerospace, defence, security, and space industries.
This highlights the UK’s continued support for Ukraine as the Minister met with Ukrainian counterparts as well as UK and international partners’ defence industry leaders in Kyiv.
The UK and Ukraine signed an agreement for the latest project under Programme Lyra, the unique UK/Ukraine technology exchange agreed by the Prime Minister and President Zelenskyy in June 2025. An agreement was also signed that will see the UK and Ukraine collaborating on sophisticated UK electronic warfare technology, combining it with Ukrainian platforms to improve Ukraine’s military capability.
The trade mission marks the UK’s move to a permanent presence to support UK industry in Ukraine. It was the largest mission of the series, with the UK welcoming five international partners including Estonia, Finland, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden, over 80 delegates and 55 companies. This number included a record 35 UK companies from primes to SMEs, offering a range of innovative solutions. Discussions at the Trade Mission around inward investment and mobilising private capital will further strengthen our ability to support Ukraine.
The trade missions have successfully deepened ties between British companies and their Ukrainian counterparts, securing contracts and helping build lasting sovereign production in Ukraine. That success has been underpinned by significant growth which will be supported by a new British Business Centre opening in Kyiv.
Since Russia’s illegal full-scale invasion in February 2022, the UK has committed over £21.8 billion for Ukraine, making the UK one of Ukraine’s largest bilateral donors. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
09 Mar 26. Ukrainian Troops Halt use of AtlasPro Recon Drones. A dispute over Western-supplied unmanned aerial systems resurfaced in Ukraine on March 5 after Ukrainian military expert Taras Chmut publicly criticized Latvian-made AtlasPro reconnaissance drones previously delivered to Ukrainian forces.
Chmut accused the manufacturer Atlas Aerospace and Ukrainian officials involved in procurement of supplying systems that he said failed to meet battlefield requirements.
The criticism appeared in comments responding to news that soldiers of the National Army of Moldova had received Latvian Atlas reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles. Chmut, head of the Come Back Alive, used the occasion to describe Ukraine’s earlier experience with the same drones.
In a public statement, Chmut sharply criticized both the manufacturer and Ukrainian officers involved in the acquisition process.
“An absolutely shameful story and experience of working with the Latvian manufacturer Atlas. In fact, fraud initiated by one of the officers of the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine, Dmytro ‘Driker’, including pushing these useless drones into service,” Chmut wrote.
Following the remarks, Defence Blog spoke with Ukrainian military personnel who had operational experience with the Atlas drones. According to those interviewed, Ukraine received a batch of the systems in 2022 during the early months of the full-scale war
Soldiers said trial operations showed the drones did not meet the requirements of modern combat conditions. The systems are reportedly unused and have been placed in storage due to limitations identified during testing.
One serviceman involved in the evaluation said the drones were too immature for frontline use.
“The drones are too raw and their software constantly produces errors, making them impossible to use on the battlefield because they simply do not work,” he said.
The AtlasPro system is produced by Atlas Aerospace and marketed as a reconnaissance platform designed to operate in environments with heavy electronic warfare and GPS interference. The company has said the drone was tested under combat conditions in Ukraine and demonstrated resistance to jamming.
The controversy reflects broader debates within Ukraine’s defence community about procurement oversight and the effectiveness of some foreign-supplied drone systems.
(Source: UAS VISION/)Defence Blog
02 Mar 26. Ukrainian C-UAS intercept drones “will protect US military bases in Jordan.”
Ukraine has sent interceptor drones and experts to protect US military bases in Jordan, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview with The New York Times.
According to the president, the USA asked Kyiv for help on March 5, and the Ukrainian team departed the next day.
“The deployment highlights Kyiv’s growing role in countering Iranian-designed drones — a capability Ukraine has developed during Russia’s full-scale invasion — while also underscoring the challenge of balancing support for partners abroad with Ukraine’s own wartime defence needs,” said a March 9 report in the New Voice of Ukraine news outlet. The president added that while Ukraine wants to help countries in the Middle East, it must also balance those requests against its own military needs. In the first days of the war in Iran, the Office of the President was receiving calls from leaders of Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia requesting air defence support.
For more information
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/world/middleeast/ukraine-shahed-drone-middle-east.html?unlocked_article_code=1.R1A.0Ju0.DWXKHGhAWE_v&smid=url-share
https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-sends-drone-experts-and-interceptor (Source: www.unmannedairspace.info)
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