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Military And Security Developments
Jan 02.
- Estonia-Finland: Threats to undersea cables in Baltic Sea will likely persist in 2026. On 31 December 2025, the Finnish police detained the Fitburg, a Russia-linked cargo vessel suspected of damaging an undersea telecommunications cable in the Gulf of Finland by dragging its anchor. The investigation was launched after the Finnish telecommunications provider Elisa reported damage to its cable between Helsinki (Finland) and Tallinn (Estonia). The Fitburg boarded in Finnish waters, with its anchor chain still deployed. On 1 January, Finnish customs officials stated that the vessel – which was sailing from St Petersburg (Russia) to the port of Haifa (Israel) – was transporting Russian steel products subject to EU sanctions. All 14 crew members have been detained. Elisa has confirmed that rerouted services prevented service outages, indicating minimal operational disruption for telecommunications customers. Although the police has declined to comment on foreign state involvement, the incident is consistent with suspected Russian grey-zone activity targeting critical underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. While NATO’s Operation Baltic Sentry has likely helped to deter Russian threats to undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, we assess that the risk will remain elevated in 2026.
- Russia-Ukraine: Moscow’s unwillingness to compromise means peace treaty is unlikely in short term. In his new year’s address on 31 December 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that while a peace agreement to end the Russo-Ukrainian war is ‘90% ready’, the remaining 10% is crucial for the country’s future. Zelensky stressed his commitment to sign an agreement that will prevent the resumption of hostilities in the foreseeable future. Zelensky also pointed out that any peace plan should be put to a referendum in Ukraine. Similarly, US President Donald Trump praised the progress in peace talks, but highlighted that the US-led negotiations remain vulnerable to collapse. We assess that a peace agreement is unlikely in the short term, as many of the points discussed by the US and Ukraine remain unacceptable to Russia. The Kremlin is highly unlikely to compromise on its key objectives, particularly if it believes that it can achieve its goals militarily if negotiations fail to satisfy Russian demands. Moscow’s recent (and currently uncorroborated) allegations that Ukrainian drones targeted a presidential residence form part of its bellicose rhetoric, signalling the Kremlin’s willingness to continue hostilities (see Sibylline Alert – 30 December 2025). Ultimately, the war is highly likely to continue at its current intensity in the coming months.
Dec 30.
EVENT
On 29 December, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that, overnight on 28-29 December, Ukraine had launched a large-scale drone attack targeting one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residences in Novgorod oblast. Lavrov said that all drones were intercepted and that no casualties or damage were recorded. He added that Moscow would review its negotiating position in response to the alleged incident.
SIGNIFICANCE
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the allegations, stating that they were fabricated and intended to undermine the ongoing peace negotiations. We cannot confirm this, though Moscow has at time of writing provided no evidence of the drone strike.
- It is highly unusual that Lavrov, the foreign minister, rather than the Ministry of Defence, should make such an announcement. This highly likely indicates that the primary impact of the allegations will be diplomatic, amid the ongoing US-led peace negotiations, rather than purely military.
- The allegations come shortly after President Zelensky met US President Donald Trump in Florida on 28 December to continue peace negotiations, whereafter Trump stated that ‘close to 95%’ of the points of a potential peace place have been agreed. Despite this, we continue to assess that many of these unconfirmed terms highly likely remain unacceptable to the Kremlin at present.
FORECAST
We assess that Russia is highly likely to use the allegations to launch ‘retaliatory’ large-scale, combined strikes in the coming days. A prominent Russian military blogger has claimed that Moscow has announced preparations for a retaliatory strike, retaining the right to determine the time and location, and has reportedly communicated this to the US. We assess that any retaliatory operation is likely to involve very large barrages, likely involving ballistic and cruise missiles, potentially launched over several consecutive days.
Despite possessing the densest air defence coverage in Ukraine, Kyiv’s threat level will remain significantly elevated in the coming days. The aforementioned Russian source specifically cited Bankova Street in central Kyiv (home to the Presidential Office and other goverment buildings) as a potential target. Such statements likely indicate that the capital will remain a priority target for Russian strikes. In addition to targeting symbolic political targets, strikes could also aim to hit the already degraded energy infrastructure, leading to further severe power outages and mass black outs. Russian forces could realistically target numerous 750kV substations aross the country to illustrate its capacity to inflict costs and trigger mass blackouts in Kyiv as well as other major cities.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned on 30 December of the ‘diplomatic consequences’ of the alleged strikes, stating that Moscow will only negotiate with the US and threatened to ‘strengthen its negotiating position’ as a result. While Peskov confirmed that Russia will not withdraw from the US-led peace process as a result of the alleged strikes, he stated that Moscow will not publicly disclose what this potential revision of its negotiating position will be. This could realistically signal a potential hardening of territorial demands in the coming weeks. We have also long assessed that Moscow does not wish to conduct direct negotiations with Ukraine in the short-to-medium term, but has rather pushed to impose a US-Russian settlement on the country.
As such, this latest development has reinforced our most likely scenario, that peace will remain elusive and that Russia will seek to continue advancing on the battlefield while the current peace terms remain unacceptable to it. The fact that President Trump has condemned the strikes and indicated he was ‘angry’ about it, despite Kyiv’s denials, indicates the possibility of increased US pressure on Ukraine in the coming weeks, if Washington DC believes that Kyiv is deliberately trying to sabotage the peace process. (Source: Sibylline)
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