Sponsored by Bertin Exensor
www.exensor.com
——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–
Military And Security Developments
Nov 21.
Proposed Ukraine Peace Plan Executive summary
* A US-proposed 28-point peace plan to resolve the Russo-Ukrainian war marks the most significant development in the peace process to date. However, various uncertainties mean that further negotiations and clarifications are likely to be necessary before the war can end.
* If Ukraine (or Russia) refuses to sign the deal before the proposed US deadline of Thanksgiving (27 November), we foresee two main scenarios (PSB).
* In our most likely scenario, the proposed US deadline proves flexible, with the peace plan forming the basis of a new phase of negotiations that protract into 2026. However, the war continues in the meantime.
* In our less likely (though still realistically possible) scenario, the US doubles down on its deadline, leveraging all economic, military and political levers to coerce both sides into signing and agreeing to a ceasefire before the end of the year. However, its implementation remains extremely challenging.
Context
On 20 November, various media outlets published leaked drafts and copies of a 28-point peace agreement penned by US and Russian negotiators. US officials have indicated that Washington DC expects both Russia and Ukraine to sign the agreement and thereby end the Russo-Ukrainian war. The plan has reportedly been drafted by US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev (the principal Russian negotiator liaising with the US). Ukraine and Europe were reportedly not part of the drafting process. Various US officials have stated that provisions within the plan will be discussed with Ukraine and Europe, and that they could still change – indicating this will possibly prove to be a working document, rather than a definitive plan. The plan’s vagueness indicates that further negotiations will highly likely be required in any case, including with Russia, as Moscow has also stated that it has yet to receive ‘anything official’ from the US.
Nevertheless, according to unnamed US officials, the White House expects Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to sign the agreement ‘before Thanksgiving’, rendering 27 November a possible ‘deadline’. The Trump administration has issued various such ‘deadlines’ over the past several months in relation to Russian and Ukrainian peace negotiations; almost all have been missed. It therefore remains unclear whether this is a genuinely hard deadline. However, the likely need for further consultations on a range of issues means that talks will likely continue beyond this deadline, even if Kyiv (and Moscow) nominally agrees to the plan as it currently stands (which we assess remains unlikely in the short term).
Zelensky has stated that he ‘appreciated the efforts of President Trump’ and would discuss the plan with him in the coming days. However, he also stated separately that he will not ‘betray Ukraine’s national interest’, warning that the next week would be very difficult for the country as it will possibly face a choice between losing its ‘key partner’ or its dignity. At the time of writing, numerous contradictory and unconfirmed media reports are circulating, including around senior Ukrainian officials allegedly agreeing to the terms and making revisions to various articles. While we cannot confirm this, it ultimately remains our assessment that further negotiations and revisions will be required before this becomes a formal, workable peace agreement.
* Russia-EU: Use of Russian immobilised assets will likely trigger retaliation against Western firms. On 20 November, Russia’s State Duma passed a resolution warning that any EU attempt to use immobilised Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine will prompt retaliatory action. According to the Duma, Russia could respond by seizing the assets of non-residents from so-called ‘unfriendly states’ as compensation. Since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Russia has taken control of foreign-owned assets, including the Russian operations of several major Western companies. Moscow has also redirected an undisclosed volume of foreign-held funds into ‘type-C’ accounts, which cannot be accessed without the government’s authorisation; retaliatory moves could therefore target such accounts. These developments come at a critical moment in the war, as the US has recently floated a peace proposal that is widely viewed as unfavourable to Ukraine (which we will report on in further detail in a Sibylline Situation Update Brief). Ultimately, the latest developments underscore Russian efforts to deter any EU decision to use frozen Russian assets, threatening Western companies that have operations or immobilised assets in Russia with tit-for-tat seizure measures.
Nov 19.
- Poland: Railway sabotage allegation underscores persistent Russian grey-zone threat. On 18 November, Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated Russia orchestrated the recent sabotage of the railway line running between the capital Warsaw and Lublin (Lublin voivodeship). According to Tusk, an unspecified Russian intelligence agency recruited two Ukrainian nationals to carry out the attack; the perpetrators allegedly immediately fled to Belarus. He added that one of the suspects unsuccessfully attempted to derail a train by attaching a clamp to the railway line, while the other successfully used an explosive device which caused only minor damage. This sets a notable precedent for Russian-backed, non-cyber sabotage of a European rail line. We previously assessed that Russia had likely orchestrated the sabotage, which is consistent with Russia’s intent and capability to carry out attacks in Poland. We assess furthermore that Poland will remain among the key targets of Russian grey-zone operations in the coming year. This will sustain the risk of sporadic sabotage incidents targeting critical national infrastructure. However, higher-likelihood threats are sporadic arson attacks on less-well protected buildings such as retail outlets or warehouses, particularly those with links to Ukraine.
- Russia-Ukraine-US: War unlikely to end in short-to-medium term despite renewed peace talks. Earlier on 19 November, Axios reported that the US, in co-ordination with Russia, has been developing a new plan to end the war. The draft reportedly contains 28 points across four areas: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, European security arrangements and future US relations with both Russia and Ukraine. US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is leading the effort and has been in contact with Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian president’s special representative for investment and international economic co-operation. Witkoff is expected to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Turkey later on 19 November to relaunch the peace dialogue. Despite peace talks initiated by Trump earlier this year, neither side has indicated a willingness to compromise to the extent likely needed to end to war. Although these latest developments mark a resumption of the peace process, we assess that the conflict is unlikely to end within the next six months. (For further analysis and scenario planning around how the war will evolve in 2025 and beyond, see our updated.
- Poland: Planned troop deployments will likely bolster protection of critical national infrastructure. On 19 November, the Polish government announced that it plans to deploy 10,000 members of the armed forces to protect critical national infrastructure (CNI). Additionally, the authorities plan to launch an app that will allow the public to report potential cases of sabotage. The announcement comes as a response to the alleged Russian-orchestrated sabotage of a railway line in Mika (Masovian voivodeship) earlier this week, though Russia has been accused of perpetrating numerous attacks and acts of espionage in Poland since 2022. The planned deployment will require the authorisation of nationalist President Karol Nawrocki, who is aligned with the opposition. However, the two rival blocs in Poland, led by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party and Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centre-right coalition, are broadly aligned on national security questions. We assess that this likely deployment – enabled by Poland having over 216,000 active military personnel – will enhance the safety of logistical routes used to transport equipment to Ukraine. The measure will also augment wider cross-sector resilience.
- Russia-Ukraine-US: Ukraine is unlikely to accept unfavourable terms; war is likely to continue. Over the past 24 hours, media reports based on unnamed sources have outlined elements of an unconfirmed 28-point US framework to end the Russo-Ukrainian war, which US officials have not confirmed. Broadly, the unconfirmed proposals would reportedly require Kyiv to relinquish full control of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Areas currently under Ukrainian control would be designated as a demilitarised zone where Moscow would be barred from deploying troops. The plan also reportedly proposes to freeze the current lines of control in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts and impose limits on the size of Ukraine’s armed forces and its long-range weapons, in exchange for unspecified US security guarantees. The unconfirmed proposals strongly align with earlier Russian demands for a ceasefire and, if confirmed, would indicate that Washington DC may well pressure Kyiv into accepting unfavourable terms quickly. However, we assess that Kyiv is unlikely to agree to such conditions in the short term and is therefore unlikely to end the conflict definitively in the short term.
Nov 18.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
* ZAPORIZHZHIA: Russian forces have made significant advances in the direction of Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia oblast) in recent weeks, likely influenced in part by Ukraine’s reinforcement of Pokrovsk to the north
* STRIKES: Russia continues its daily strike campaign against Ukraine, launching episodic large-scale attacks, as evidenced by the strike on 13 to 14 November which focused much of its impact on the capital, Kyiv
* ENERGY: Ukraine has signed an agreement to import US LNG via Greece to cover the country’s winter energy requirements, but despite significant recovery in overall gas production levels, blackouts will continue amid Russian strikes
* FORECAST: The Ukrainian government is facing the largest and most politically impactful corruption scandal since the start of the full-scale war, centred on the country’s energy sector, which will drive questions over how foreign aid is overseen
* POKROVSK: Russian forces in the Pokrovsk sector (Donestk oblast) continue attempts to fix Ukrainian troops within the city while pressing for an encirclement, though they have yet to achieve this. Although elements of Russia’s 51st Combined Arms Army (CAA) are struggling to conduct encirclement operations to the north and north-east, the 2nd CAA has managed to make advances both within Pokrovsk and to the west of the city. However, Russian forces have still not succeeded in achieving a full encirclement, likely in part due to high losses as well as Ukrainian counter-attacks.
* POKROVSK: Despite these challenges, Russia likely remains committed to maintaining pressure on Ukraine’s flanks in an effort to prevent them from conducting an orderly and co-ordinated withdrawal. This was evidenced by the launch of a mechanised assault on 11 November, involving light vehicles along the Selydove–Pokrovsk highway (located to the south of Pokrovsk). Ukrainian forces reported that the assault achieved ‘partial success’, and that Russian troops incurred numerous losses in and around the city. Ukrainian forces also continue to report that Russian troops are not operating within Myrnohrad (Donetsk oblast), though there are indications that they are at least operating at the edges of the town. Nevertheless, on 13 November, President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the increasingly difficult situation for Ukrainian forces. He stated that any decision regarding a withdrawal will be made by the commanders on the ground. This potentially sets the conditions for an eventual decision to withdraw in the coming weeks, if Russian forces continue to threaten Ukraine’s weakening flanks and increasingly vulnerable ground lines of communication.
* ZAPORIZHZHIA: Russian forces have made significant advances in the direction of Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia oblast) in recent weeks, likely influenced in part by Ukraine’s reinforcement of Pokrovsk to the north. On 15 November, Ukraine’s Southern Defence Forces confirmed that they had withdrawn troops from Novovasylivske, a village located north-east of Huliaipole, to ‘more favourable positions’. Geolocated footage posted on 15-16 November indicates that Russian forces recently seized control of Rivnopillia village, located north-east of Huliaipole, and will enable Russian forces to place further pressure on the town from the north-east. Russian forces have also advanced along both the T-0401 Pokrovske–Huliaipole highway and the O-080618 Huliaipole–Malynivka highway. The recent advances place Russian forces approximately two miles (4km) east of Huliapole and 5 miles (8km) north-east of the town.
* ZAPORIZHZHIA: Over the last month at least, advances towards Huliapole have represented the most notable and successful front according to territory seized by Russian forces. Ukrainian forces have likely had to commit additional reinforcements to defending the Pokrovsk sector in recent months. This has likely exposed weaknesses elsewhere which Russian forces are attempting to exploit, such as towards Huliapole.
* STRIKES: Russia continues its daily strike campaign against Ukraine, launching episodic large-scale attacks, as evidenced by the strike on 13 to 14 November. The attack involved 430 drones, three Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles fired from Ryazan oblast (Russia), one Tsirkon anti-ship missile, six Iskander-K/Kalibr cruise missiles and nine Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles. Ukrainian authorities reported that Russia focused the attack on the capital Kyiv. A Russian missile reportedly damaged the Azerbaijani embassy in Kyiv. We have previously reported that Russia frequently concentrates its very large salvos on the capital. Despite Kyiv having the densest air defence system in the entire country, such attacks nonetheless inflict damage through the sheer volume of projectiles. Such attacks significantly degrade Kyiv’s security environment, leaving even well-protected areas at high risk of sustaining strikes, which further compound growing energy insecurity risks (see Energy below for further analysis).
* STRIKES: On 16 to 17 November, Russian forces struck the port of Izmail in Odesa oblast, hitting a Turkish-flagged gas tanker. Turkish vessels account for roughly 40% of maritime traffic through the so-called Black Sea corridor connecting Ukraine’s ports to global shipping lanes. The attack was likely part of Moscow’s broader strategy to undermine shipping to Ukrainian ports and disrupt energy supplies to Kyiv. However, it remains unlikely that this will cause a major diplomatic incident between Russia and Turkey (particularly as the Turkish government is likely attempting to reinvigorate the stalled Istanbul talks). Nevertheless, the incident underscores the omnipresent threats to shipping of all kinds operating in Ukrainian waters, including vessels flagged by neutral states.
* STRIKES: Ukraine has reportedly used its domestically produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles for the second time. Ukraine’s general staff reported that overnight on 12-13 November, its forces conducted a long-range strike using Flamingo missiles and long-range drones, without specifying the targets. A Ukrainian source reported that one missile struck the city of Oryol (Oryol oblast, Russia), with geolocated footage indicating damage to infrastructure for the Oryol Thermal Power Plant. However, this has yet to be corroborated. The development likely illustrates Ukraine’s emerging domestic deep missile strike capabilities, which will complement its already-established long-range drone capabilities.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
* AID: On 17 November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a letter of intent for Ukraine to purchase 100 French Rafale F4 jets during a bilateral meeting in the French capital Paris. The letter of intent also includes purchases of new SAMP/T air-defence systems, drones and radars, which will reportedly be newly produced equipment rather than material drawn from French military stocks. According to the two leaders, the purchases would be paid for through a mix of EU financing and bilateral funding; the EU is yet to agree on seizing frozen Russian assets to finance such aid. While joint production of interceptor drones will reportedly begin before 2026, the deliveries of the Rafale F4s are to be completed by 2035, underscoring that the agreement is unlikely to have a significant impact on Ukraine’s medium-term military capabilities. Nonetheless, the agreement is strategically important for Ukraine insofar as it ensures a continued source of military support to bolster its medium-to-long term defensive capabilities.
* ENERGY: On 16 November, Ukraine signed an agreement to import US liquefied natural gas (LNG) via Greece to cover the country’s winter energy requirements. The deal, signed between Ukrainian energy company Naftogaz and the Greek energy company DEPA Commercial will cover the December 2025 to March 2026 period, with deliveries beginning in January 2026. The precise quantities of LNG have not been specified. The agreement comes after Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure disabled up to 60% of Ukraine’s gas production in October, though a credible source has indicated that production has rapidly recovered, having risen from approximately 25 m cubic metres per day (mcm/d) of production down several weeks ago to only 6-9 mcm/d currently. Nonetheless, the agreement underscores Ukraine’s continued reliance on external partners to help bolster its energy security amid ongoing Russian strikes on its energy infrastructure this winter, which will continue to trigger blackouts in the coming months.
* ENERGY: By contrast, on 13 November Reuters reported that Russia’s oil processing has decreased by just 3% so far in 2025 despite Ukraine’s strike campaign, underscoring that Russia’s strategic depth puts it at an advantage in terms of offsetting the impact of strikes. The finding is based on a combination of Reuters data and industry sources. During the most intense period of Ukraine’s strike campaign between August and October, attacks and planned maintenance meant that up to 20% of Russia’s refinery capacity was offline. However, according to industry sources who spoke to Reuters, Russia’s refineries were operating below full capacity before Ukraine’s strikes. The sources claim that the authorities were able to offset the impact of these strikes by restarting spare units at both damaged and unaffected sites, as well as repairing the units hit by strikes and bringing them back online. While we cannot confirm the findings, they do highlight the likely limitations of Ukraine’s strike campaign, which has so far failed to mirror the widescale damage inflicted by Russia on Ukraine’s energy grid and production rates.
FORECAST
CORRUPTION: The Ukrainian government is facing the largest and most politically impactful corruption scandals since the start of the full-scale war, centred on the country’s energy sector. Last week, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) revealed that an investigation has been underway for 15 months into an extensive embezzlement scheme at Energoatom, the state-owned nuclear power company. NABU investigators uncovered an alleged USD 100 m scheme involving kickbacks of up to 15% on contracts – including contracts to build protections for Ukraine’s energy infrastructure against Russian strikes.
Prominent figures suspected of involvement include the justice minister and former energy minister Herman Halushchenko, former defence minister Rustem Umerov, several unnamed senior officials and Tymur Mindich, a former business partner of President Zelensky. The case has already resulted in the temporary suspension of Halushchenko and the resignation of current energy minister Svitlana Grynchuk. Other implicated government officials are likely to face suspension or be forced to resign, sustaining moderate risks to government stability in the coming weeks. Mindich, meanwhile, has fled the country, likely due to a tip-off about his forthcoming arrest warrant.
Despite the government’s attempts to ensure greater transparency in the energy sector, the domestic backlash will likely remain severe, with further allegations and revelations remaining as triggers for protests. On 15 November, President Zelensky pledged to overhaul the management of state-owned energy companies and to maintain full co-operation with anti-corruption bodies. His statements are almost certainly aimed at containing public anger over the scandal, particularly as the population continues to face worsening energy insecurity due to Russia’s long-range strikes on critical infrastructure. Meanwhile, NABU has claimed that the investigation faced strong government resistance and attempts at obstruction which will likely further fuel public distrust. The scandal will likely further erode confidence in the government. Additional revelations that implicate senior officials are likely to sustain the risk of localised protests in key cities, including Kyiv. (For further analysis on the government legislation that threatened to severely curtail the independence of NABU, likely in relation to this ongoing investigation.
More broadly, the case will raise concerns among Western partners about the management of financial aid, though allies are likely to remain committed to supporting the country. Politico reported last week that the corruption case has alarmed EU partners, prompting renewed demands for greater transparency in how foreign funds are overseen. The scandal comes at a critical moment for Ukraine’s finances as it finalises its state budget and faces widening funding gaps that are only deepening its reliance on external support. Despite the scale of the ongoing corruption scandal, we assess that the EU will likely remain committed to providing aid, as supporting Ukraine against Russia remains its key strategic priority. At the same time, Russia-friendly countries such as Hungary and Slovakia are likely to use the scandal to justify their opposition to further assistance, which will continue to pose an obstacle in EU decision-making.
* Ukraine-EU: EU alternatives to frozen Russian assets will likely slightly improve 2026 financial outlook. On 17 November, media reports indicated that the European Commission has devised alternative options to financially support Ukraine if the bloc fails to reach an agreement on using frozen Russian assets. These options include providing Ukraine with a EUR 90 bn grant where each EU member state would make a voluntary contribution to the EU budget, determined by the strength of its economy. The contributions would broadly range between 0.16% and 0.27% of member states’ gross domestic product (GDP) and would have an immediate impact on their public finances. The second option would require the EU to borrow on financial markets and lend the money to Ukraine, on the condition that Ukraine repays the loan only if it receives war reparations from Russia. The IMF and the Ukrainian authorities have estimated that Ukraine will need EUR 135.7 bn between 2026 and 2027, assuming the war ends by late 2026. Consequently, even if no consensus is reached on using Russian frozen assets, alternative financial support will be available, which we assess will improve Ukraine’s financial stability in 2026.
Nov 17.
* Poland: Alleged railway sabotage likely perpetrated by Russian-recruited network. Earlier on 17 November, Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that a railway line used to supply weapons to Ukraine between the capital Warsaw and Lublin (Lublin voivodeship) was sabotaged. Tusk stated that the damag discovered on 16 November ? was the result of an explosive charge. At the time of writing, the authorities have not officially attributed the incident to a specific actor. However, we assess that a Russian-backed actor was likely responsible. In 2023, the authorities disrupted a Russian military intelligence (GRU) network carrying out reconnaissance operations with the intention of sabotaging the rail network. Given that an estimated 90% of military aid to Ukraine passes through Poland, the rail network almost certainly remains a strategic target. However, Russia’s grey-zone campaign also extends to less strategic targets. In the coming months, we assess that there is a realistic risk of further arson attacks on Ukraine-linked facilities and retail sites across Poland, as well as incendiary devices being sent to courier companies. This campaign will highly likely continue into 2026. (Source: Sibylline)
21 Nov 25. Zelenskiy ready for ‘honest’ work on US-backed plan as Europeans push back.
- Summary
- US plan would require Kyiv to give up land, plan shows
- Kyiv would also have to accept curbs on military – plan
- US Army chief says Kyiv agrees to move quickly towards a deal
- White House says US working on plan for about a month
- French minister says peace cannot mean capitulation
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said after talks with a top U.S. Army official on Thursday he was ready for “honest” work with Washington on a plan to end the war in Ukraine, while European allies pushed back against punishing concessions to Russia. According to the U.S.-backed plan, seen by Reuters, Kyiv would be required to give up the entire Donbas region and significantly downsize its military, conditions long seen by Ukraine’s allies as tantamount to capitulation. The plan says Ukraine would have to limit its army to 600,000 troops and that it would “receive robust security guarantees,” without providing further details. It makes several concessions to Russia, including that Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian by the United States and that Ukrainian forces will withdraw from part of the Donetsk region that they control.
“This plan was drawn up immediately following discussions with one of the most senior members of President Zelenskiy’s administration, Rustem Umerov, who agreed to the majority of the plan, after making several modifications, and presented it to President Zelenskiy,” a senior U.S. official said.
KYIV READY FOR ‘CONSTRUCTIVE’ WORK
Zelenskiy, whose office said he had received a draft of the plan, said after meeting U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll in Kyiv that Ukraine and Washington would work together on elements of it.
“Our teams – Ukraine and the USA – will work on the points of the plan to end the war,” Zelenskiy wrote on Telegram. “We are ready for constructive, honest and prompt work.”
Zelenskiy’s office did not comment directly on the content of the 28-point plan, which has not been officially published, but said he had “outlined the fundamental principles that matter to our people.”
“In the coming days, the President of Ukraine expects to discuss with President Trump the existing diplomatic opportunities and the key points required to achieve peace,” it said.
The plan seen by Reuters also states that a non-aggression agreement would be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe.
It says that NATO would neither expand further nor station troops in Ukraine and that Russia would be reintegrated into the global economy, with the lifting of sanctions “agreed upon in phases and on a case-by-case basis.”
Russia would be invited to rejoin the G8 and the United States would enter into an agreement with Moscow covering energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers and rare earth metals extraction in the Arctic.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told a news briefing that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff had been quietly working on the plan for about a month and that Trump supports the plan.
“This plan was crafted to reflect the realities of the situation, after five years of a devastating war, to find the best win-win scenario, where both parties gain more than they must give,” she said in a comment on Thursday evening after media outlets reported additional details from the plan.
‘PEACE CANNOT BE CAPITULATION,’ FRANCE SAYS
European Union foreign ministers meeting in Brussels earlier in the day did not comment in detail about the reported U.S. plan, but indicated they would not accept demands for Kyiv to make punishing concessions.
“Ukrainians want peace – a just peace that respects everyone’s sovereignty, a durable peace that can’t be called into question by future aggression,” said French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot. “But peace cannot be a capitulation.”
Zelenskiy’s office said Driscoll had presented him with the plan only on Thursday, and several sources told Reuters and other media outlets that the plan was the fruit of backchannel conversations between Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev, the special envoy of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In a message on X on Wednesday, Rubio said the U.S. “will continue to develop a list of potential ideas for ending this war based on input from both sides of this conflict” and that peace will require concessions from both Kyiv and Moscow.
Zelenskiy, who met Driscoll alone and then met with the full U.S. delegation, agreed to move quickly towards agreement and the signing of a plan, said Colonel Dave Butler, U.S. army chief of public affairs.
The United States, he said, wanted to ensure that this is “a good plan for the Ukrainian people.”
The acceleration in U.S. diplomacy comes at an awkward time for Kyiv, with its troops on the back foot on the battlefield and Zelenskiy’s government undermined by a corruption scandal. Parliament fired two cabinet ministers on Wednesday.
GENERAL SAYS RUSSIA CONTROLS KUPIANSK
Moscow played down any new U.S. initiative.
“Consultations are not currently under way. There are contacts, of course, but there is no process that could be called consultations,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
He said Russia had nothing to add beyond the position Putin laid out at a summit with Trump in August, adding that any peace deal must address the “root causes of the conflict,” a phrase Moscow has long used to refer to its demands.
With another winter approaching in the nearly four-year war, Russian troops occupy almost one-fifth of Ukraine and are slowly advancing while bombarding Ukrainian energy supplies and cities as the cold winter sets in.
The Kremlin said Putin had visited the command post of the Russian forces’ “West” grouping on Thursday, where he met the chief of Russia’s general staff, Valery Gerasimov, and other top military brass.
Gerasimov told Putin that Russian forces had taken control of the Ukrainian city of Kupiansk, a city Moscow sees as an important target in its westward push through central and eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine’s military denied Russian claims it controls Kupiansk in northeastern Ukraine or 70% of the ruined railway hub of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine.
Reuters could not independently verify either statement, although video released by Russia’s defence ministry on Thursday showed its troops moving freely through the southern part of Pokrovsk, patrolling deserted streets lined with charred apartment blocks. (Source: Reuters)
20 Nov 25. Ukraine allows key companies to have air defence teams, minister says. Ukraine’s government has authorised energy, communications and transport companies to purchase and use air defence equipment to improve their effectiveness in combating Russian air attacks, defence minister Denys Shmyhal said on Wednesday.
Russia has significantly intensified its air strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, focusing on energy, transport and facilities that support the functioning of cities.
Read about innovative ideas and the people working on solutions to global crises with the Reuters Beacon newsletter. Sign up here.
“Enterprises will be able to purchase or receive air defence equipment by decision of the military command or through supply procedures agreed with the Ministry of Defence,” Shmyhal said on the Telegram messenger.
He said the air defence groups at enterprises would act solely on the orders of the military, would receive information from the military, and that the members of the groups would be vetted by the national security service.
The groups will consist of “proven employees of enterprises”, he noted, saying that the decision will make civil air defence more effective and protect strategically important facilities from threats. (Source: Reuters)
20 Nov 25. Ukraine allows key companies to have air defence teams, minister says. Ukraine’s government has authorised energy, communications and transport companies to purchase and use air defence equipment to improve their effectiveness in combating Russian air attacks, defence minister Denys Shmyhal said on Wednesday. Russia has significantly intensified its air strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, focusing on energy, transport and facilities that support the functioning of cities. Read about innovative ideas and the people working on solutions to global crises with the Reuters Beacon newsletter. Sign up here. “Enterprises will be able to purchase or receive air defence equipment by decision of the military command or through supply procedures agreed with the Ministry of Defence,” Shmyhal said on the Telegram messenger. He said the air defence groups at enterprises would act solely on the orders of the military, would receive information from the military, and that the members of the groups would be vetted by the national security service. The groups will consist of “proven employees of enterprises”, he noted, saying that the decision will make civil air defence more effective and protect strategically important facilities from threats. (Source: Reuters)
18 Nov 25. Spain rolls out $946m Ukraine aid package during Zelenskiy visit. Spain pledged 817m euros ($946m) in military and other aid for Ukraine on Tuesday during President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s visit as he aims to bolster Kyiv’s air defences against Russia’s invasion. The bulk of the aid, in which defence equipment will amount to 300m euros, is part of a 10-year bilateral security and defence agreement signed in May 2024 that envisages an annual 1 bn euros. As part of the package, Spain will purchase U.S. military equipment worth 100 m euros under NATO’s Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez told a joint news conference. It also includes 200 m euros in credit for companies investing in the reconstruction of Ukraine, with a particular focus on energy, transport and water management. “First, for the Ukrainian army to protect the territorial integrity of Ukraine from the invader, secondly to protect the civilian population, and finally to give an impulse to reconstruction,” Sanchez said about the package. (Source: Reuters)
11 Nov 25. Ukraine shares lessons learned in drone defence with UK House of Lords. Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine Anna Gvozdiar shared insights from the battlefield during a UK parliamentary discussion “Drone Protection for UK Soldiers – Learning from Ukraine” at the House of Lords last week.
“Over nearly four years, our air defence system has evolved from a relatively expensive, classical model into a flexible, multi-tiered structure in which high-tech complexes operate in synergy with mass, cost-effective solutions,” Gvozdiar said. “This is a story of adaptability and ingenuity — Ukrainians are not merely defending themselves but setting new standards of security for future wars.”
Indeed, Ukraine’s air defence architecture, integrating traditional capabilities with interceptor drones and networked systems, is reshaping modern warfare. ‘Eyes in the sky’ is the new ‘boots on the ground’. During the event, British parliamentarians, defence sector representatives and Ukrainian innovators discussed Ukraine’s practical experience in countering drones and how this experience could be applied within NATO and the UK. Gvozdiar emphasised that the Ukrainian approach is based on practicality, rapid implementation of solutions and the ability to continuously adapt to new challenges. She expressed gratitude to the House of Lords for its consistent and systematic support for Ukraine, in particular for facilitating the transfer of interceptor systems for air defence and for supporting the development of Ukrainian interceptor drone production. The Deputy Minister of Defence further underlined that close collaboration in technological development strengthens both Ukrainian and British militaries and enhances global security. (Source: www.unmannedairspace.info)
19 Nov 25. Cuashub.com said today that Ukrainian drone strike hits Russian UAV hub in occupied Crimea. Ukrainian forces have struck the Kirovske airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea, damaging infrastructure critical to Russia’s Orion drone operations. The attack, carried out on November 13 by the 1st Center of Unmanned Systems, targeted facilities used for deployment and maintenance of Orion reconnaissance-strike drones. Satellite imagery released by open-source intelligence group Dnipro Osint shows scorched areas near drone hangars and destroyed ground equipment. Photos dated November 17 reveal burn marks and debris around structures supporting the Orion program, including a visible scar on the tarmac where an Orion UAV was positioned. The Kirovske airbase has served as a strategic hub for Russian drone activity, enabling surveillance of Ukraine’s coastal zones and strikes against maritime drones. Ukrainian forces also hit a helicopter parking area during the same operation. The Orion UAV, developed by Russia’s Kronshtadt Group, is a medium-altitude, long-endurance drone with a 16-meter wingspan and 8-meter length. It can carry up to 200 kg of payload, operate for 24 hours at altitudes up to 7,000 meters, and has an estimated range of 1,000–1,500 km. Equipped with four hardpoints, it can deploy guided munitions, including the S8000 “Banderol” cruise missile. Russia has relied on Orion drones to counter Ukraine’s naval drone attacks in the Black Sea, which have repeatedly targeted Russian assets in Crimea and the Kuban region. Footage released by Ukrainian commander Robert “Madyar” Brovdi reportedly shows the moment FP‑2 drones struck the airfield. The strike is yet another example Ukraine’s growing ability to disrupt Russian aerial operations deep inside occupied territory, potentially impacting Russia’s reconnaissance and strike capabilities in the region. https://cuashub.com/en/content/ukrainian-drone-strike-hits-russian-uav-hub-in-occupied-crimea/ (Source: https://cuashub.com/
13 Nov 25. Ukraine as the “architect of a European drone wall.” Ukrainian news portal Novyny Live has published a column by Anatolii Amelin, Deputy Head of the National Association of Defence Companies, in which he argues for a European drone wall and says Ukraine could be the architect.
“The European ‘wall’ is a network of surveillance, classification and neutralisation over movement corridors and critical infrastructure,” Amelin writes. “At its core is the C-UAS circuit, integrated into the C4ISR scheme. For the EU, it also means data standards, compatible interfaces and joint personnel training. We fit organically into this structure. The war has reduced the ‘discover – test – update’ cycle to months. Thousands of operators work in dense electronic warfare every day, tactics and tools are born in the field and immediately return to engineering. It is this circulation of knowledge that makes our experience suitable for EU civilian tasks.”
He continues that the offer from Ukraine is for “hardware plus service and responsibility” and that the implementation stages are clear: “threat audit, circuit design, sensor and C2 installation, connection of electronic warfare, interception units and firepower, team training and launch accompanied by the operational shift”.
“Open pilots, public metrics, localised service in EU countries and joint training are needed,” Amelin writes. “The deployment model has four levels: national level with early warning systems and policies; regional level with personnel training and exercises; facility level with turnkey circuits for airports, ports and energy; and an operational level with 24/7 support, updates and response.”
He adds that this approach is consistent with NATO’s Eastern Sentry initiative, which “consolidates C-UAS surveillance and integration capabilities on the eastern flank and opens up opportunities for Ukrainian participation”.
“When the customer sees a managed intercept economy, agreed protocols and trained teams, the architecture is perceived as a standard, not a one-off purchase. Ukraine is the architect of the European Drone Wall, if we act now.” (Source: www.unmannedairspace.info)
17 Nov 25. Ukraine plans to acquire 100 Rafale fighters from France. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in France on an official visit as he seeks advanced air defence capabilities.
* Ukraine has taken the first steps to acquire Rafale fighters from France, along with advanced air defence systems
* The move comes weeks after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed with Sweden to purchase Gripen fighters
* Ukraine is under considerable pressure as Russia continues nightly attacks on Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signed a letter of intent with French President Emmanuel Macron to purchase Rafale F4 fighter jets and advanced air defence systems, as part of a landmark deal during an official visit to France. Posting on social media platform X on 17 November 2025, the Palais de l’Élysée stated that Ukraine would acquire Rafale fighters and SAMP/T NG air defence platforms, without stating the value of the deal nor delivery timelines. It was reported by French news outlet TFI Info that President Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine would seek to acquire 100 Rafale fighters. It was initially unclear whether the Rafales would be existing stock from the French Air Force or if Ukraine would acquire new builds. However, President Zelenskyy subsequently posted on X that the 100 Rafale fighters would be delivered by 2035, indicating the potential for a mix of in-service and new build aircraft. Such a sizeable fleet would augment Ukraine?s air combat capabilities significantly, with the Rafale considered to be a 4.5 generation multirole aircraft, similar in capability to the Eurofighter Typhoon. Rafale to be added to Ukraine?s mixed future fleet Ukraine has long-sought Western aircraft to modernise its Air Force, which currently operates the Russian-origin MiG-29 multirole fighters, Su-14/25/27 series ground attack platform, as well as older French Dassault Mirage 2000 fighters, which first began to arrive in 2025. Kyiv has also been promised around 85 F-16 fighters from various Western countries, typically of the older C/D variants. The letter of intent for the Rafale acquisition comes hot on the heels of a similar deal signed in October between Ukraine and Sweden for the delivery of between 100-150 Gripen fighters. Should all of these acquisition plans come to fruition, Ukraine will operate a mixed fleet of around 100 Rafales from France, a similar number of F-16s from various sources, and over 100 Gripen fighters from Sweden, in addition to the existing Russian-origin platforms and the older Mirage 2000s. Ukraine is seeking to boost its air defence capabilities as Russia continues to bombard its cities and energy infrastructure with nightly cruise missile and glide bomb attacks, with an increasing number of attacks thought to be getting through Ukrainian defences. (Source: airforce-technology.com)
14 Nov 25. Cuashub.com said today that Zelensky announces new drone defense program for border cities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced the launch of a new government-backed program designed to protect border cities from Russian drone attacks, starting with Kherson. Speaking at a briefing on November 7, Zelensky said the initiative was developed by the Unmanned Systems Forces Command and is fully prepared for deployment. The program introduces a comprehensive set of measures aimed at detecting, intercepting and neutralizing hostile drones that pose a threat to civilian and critical infrastructure in frontline areas.
“In Kherson, the program is already ready to begin its work,” the president said, noting that similar systems will be rolled out to other high-risk border towns. “These initiatives are part of a broader strategy to strengthen the protection of our border territories.”
The move is part of Ukraine’s continued focus on countering Russian aerial threats, which have targeted both military and civilian sites with increasing frequency. Earlier, on November 3, Zelensky said that by the end of this month Ukraine could reach a production capacity of between 600 and 800 interceptor drones per day, a significant step in boosting the country?s defensive capabilities amid ongoing conflict. Officials say the new defense network will combine early-warning technologies, rapid-response interceptor units and electronic warfare systems to improve resilience against incoming attacks. Kherson, located near the Dnipro River and close to Russian-occupied territories, has faced repeated drone and artillery strikes since its liberation in 2022. The government expects the border protection program to serve as a model for strengthening defense readiness in other vulnerable regions along Ukraine’s frontiers.
Zelensky announces new drone defense program for border cities
(Source: https://cuashub.com/
14 Nov 25. Ukraine begins mass production of interceptor drones to bolster air defence. Ukraine has started mass production of its new domestically developed interceptor drones to strengthen air defences, the Ukrainian defence ministry said on Friday. As the war with Russia approaches the four-year mark, Ukrainian cities and towns far from the frontline are under nearly daily assault from hundreds of Russian drones. In the latest attack on Ukraine, 430 drones were used, Ukrainian officials said. The ministry said that the first three manufacturers have already started production, and 11 more were preparing to set up production lines. The drones would be based on a domestically developed technology called ‘Octopus”. The ministry said the technology to intercept Shahed drones was tested in combat and proved that it was working “at night, under jamming, and at low altitudes.” President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said that the goal was to manufacture up to 1,000 of the interceptors a day. Russia is investing heavily in long-range drones and has been steadily increasing the number of drones it uses in a single strike on Ukraine. Interceptor drones, which cost a few thousand dollars each, are also important for Ukraine as it can save its more expensive missiles for faster, deadlier cruise and ballistic threats. (Source: Reuters)
14 Nov 25. Russia plans to make up to 120,000 glide bombs this year, Ukrainian intelligence says. Russia plans to manufacture up to 120,000 of its cheap and devastating glide bombs this year, a senior Ukrainian intelligence official said, including 500 of a new, longer-range version which can reach more towns and cities. Russia has ramped up arms production massively since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with defence plants operating around the clock. It does not disclose details of military output, which are classified as secret. Reuters was unable to verify the 2025 target, which Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence disclosed in an interview. He did not say how he had obtained the figure or give earlier data, but it would indicate a vast increase in the manufacture of glide bombs, which use wings, and sometimes engines, to fly dozens of kilometres to their targets. The 120,000 number includes new munitions and existing bombs upgraded to glide. Skibitskyi said Russian forces are firing between 200 and 250 glide bombs every day. Last month, the daily average was about 170, according to data from the defence ministry
“It is possible to shoot them down, but the quantity of these aerial bombs produced in the Russian Federation … is enormous,” Skibitskyi said. “This is a threat. A threat that will require us to respond appropriately.”
RUSSIA IS BOOSTING GLIDE BOMB RANGE
The bombs, whose range was previously estimated to be up to 90 km (56 miles), can breach Ukrainian defences without sending planes across front lines where they would be shot down. They are much cheaper and more plentiful than missiles and their several hundred kilograms of explosive can blast through buildings and fortifications. They have pummelled frontline cities such as Kharkiv and Kherson. Russia is launching mass production of a new glide bomb capable of flying up to 200 km (125 miles) from the point of release from a fighter jet, Skibitskyi said, adding that it plans to make about 500 by the end of this year. Ukraine also believes that Russia is working on modifications so such bombs can fly up to 400 km, allowing Moscow to target even more Ukrainian towns and cities without using missiles, he said. October glide bomb attacks on Mykolaiv, Poltava and Odesa regions, which are at least dozens of kilometres from the nearest front lines, have already demonstrated the increasing reach of the weapon. The Russian defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Russia denies targeting civilians, but thousands have been killed and injured in the invasion. Moscow argues that Kyiv’s moves to ally with the West pose a threat to Russia and must be stopped.
INTENSIFYING ATTACKS AIMED AT FORCING KYIV’S HAND IN TALKS
Skibitskyi also gave estimates for Russian drone production, which he said had enabled it to target Ukraine’s energy system more effectively. In 2025 Russia would make a total of about 70,000 long-range drones, he said, including 30,000 Shahed craft which are the workhorse of Russia’s attacks.
“They started with 30 drones per month, now 30 can fly to a single target,” he said, expecting the attacks on gas and energy infrastructure to continue into the winter.
“They definitely want to break us. This is destabilising the internal situation,” he said. Skibitskyi described it as one of the tools to pressure Ukraine into a more compliant position in any possible peace negotiations.
He also said that should Russian troops capture the besieged city of Pokrovsk, where street battles are currently raging, they would likely press towards the boundaries of Donetsk region, their long-held goal.
“It’s their next direction of movement, it’s obvious.”
NORTH KOREA MAKING ITS OWN DRONES
The shipment of millions of rounds of artillery shells from North Korea helped Russia keep up rates of fire on the battlefield in 2024, but Skibitskyi said the number had more than halved this year as Pyongyang’s stocks ran low. He cited a total supply of 6.5 m artillery shells to Russia since 2023 from North Korea, which seized on an opportunity to build close ties with the Kremlin after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
He said there were no shell deliveries recorded from North Korea in September, but some were recorded in October and that about half the shells supplied by Pyongyang were so old that they needed to go to plants in Russia to be improved.
Skibitskyi added that North Korea had launched mass production of small, short-range First Person View (FPV), as well as larger medium-range battlefield attack drones, on its own soil, although he did not specify the scale.
“They are learning, they are studying their experience (in this war) in order to expand production in their own territory,” he said.
Thousands of North Korean troops fought last year alongside Russian forces in Russia’s Kursk region after an incursion by Ukraine to try to ease pressure on its forces elsewhere and create leverage in peace talks. North Korea has acknowledged its involvement in Ukraine, arguing that its role helps to preserve world peace in the face of aggression by the West but it has not given any details or responded to requests for comment on its involvement. (Source: Reuters)
————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed ?silent? network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
A CNIM Group Company
——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–