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NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Jun 27.

Executive summary

* In our Strategic Risk Forecast, we put forward various scenarios in which we hypothesise the trajectory of the Russo-Ukrainian war in the next 12 months. Our baseline scenario is that the war will highly likely continue in some form without a definitive resolution; there is also a realistic possibility of a fragile ceasefire that will fail to stop the fighting entirely.

* On 1 June, Ukraine launched an unprecedented operation that targeted numerous Russian strategic airbases across the country, successfully destroying more than ten strategic bombers, which are used to launch cruise missile attacks against Ukraine. The operation underscores Ukraine’s growing capability to conduct highly complex, co-ordinated drone attacks deep in Russia’s rear. While Russia retains sufficient strategic bombers to sustain the current tempo of high-intensity cruise missile strikes, the operation is likely part of a Ukrainian strategy to increase war costs for Russia.

* The outbreak of the Iran-Israel war diverted US attention away from the Russo-Ukrainian war over the last month. However, if the ceasefire agreed on 24 June holds, this could realistically make US President Donald Trump even more determined to push for a similar ceasefire deal in Ukraine. In the meantime, Russia and Ukraine have proceeded with prisoner-of-war (POW) exchanges, which are a tentative first step towards building the trust necessary to reach a stable end to the war.

* Following Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb on 1 June, Russia significantly increased the scale of its long-range attacks. It has regularly launched several hundred unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in a single attack, often complemented by a variable number of missiles. This has undermined the operating environment across Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv, which has been regularly bombarded by high-intensity strikes that likely form part of Russia’s saturation strategy to steadily overwhelm Ukrainian air defences.

* Other key triggers, warnings and indicators (TWIs) to watch for in July include: the resumption of bilateral talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, though the prospect of a major breakthrough remains low in the short-to-medium term; and an intensification of ground assaults and long-range attacks against Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts (Ukraine) following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reiteration that a buffer zone would be created along the international border.

  • Ukraine: Recurrent corruption scandals will weaken domestic, international confidence. Earlier on 27 June, Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) reported that it had filed a motion with the High Anti-Corruption Court to impose bail and suspend Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov from his duties. It comes days after Chernyshov was formally named a suspect in a high-profile corruption case concerning real estate development while serving as the communities and territories minister between 2020 and 2022. The official has denied the accusations against him and has stated that he will not resign from his post. Chernyshov has held several high-ranking positions, including CEO of Ukraine’s state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz; he is also considered to be a close ally of President Volodymyr Zelensky. Although Zelensky has taken steps to tackle corruption, recent developments underscore that corruption remains an enduring issue within elements of Ukrainian politics and society. We assess that recurrent corruption scandals will likely continue to erode both domestic and international confidence in Ukraine’s leadership over the medium-to-long term.

Jun 26.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

  • KURSK-SUMY: A senior NATO official assessed that NATO’s intelligence indicates that the encirclement of Sumy city (Sumy oblast) is unlikely in the near future, given the extremely heavy casualties Russian forces are taking
  • STRIKES: Forensic analysis of debris from a drone used in a recent attack revealed new AI thermal modules on Russia’s Shahed-type drones, indicating continued upgrading to make drones ever more lethal and accurate
  • CEASEFIRE: A US-mediated ceasefire between Iran and Israel announced on 23 June will possibly spur a renewed interest in US efforts to resolve the Russo-Ukrainian conflict in the near term, though a lasting peace remains highly unlikely
  • BAKHMUT: Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to fight heavily over the south-western approaches to Kostiantynivka between Pokrovsk and Toretsk (all Donetsk oblast). Geolocated footage published on 23 June indicates that Ukrainian forces have advanced in western Yablunivka, a village located about seven miles (11km) south-west of the outskirts of Kostiantynivka. Notably, Ukrainian officers have been reporting that the contested ‘grey zone’ in the area south of Kostiantynivka has widened in recent weeks given Russia’s increasing use of fibre-optic drones and their targeting of Ukrainian logistics. Meanwhile, to the north-east, geolocated footage published on 24 June indicates that Russian forces have successfully advanced in south-western Chasiv Yar (Donetsk oblast).
  • DONETSK: In recent days, Russian forces have advanced north-east of Pokrovsk, as well as further south-west towards Novopavlivka (Dnipropetrovsk oblast). Geolocated footage from 24 June shows Russian forces advancing north of Shevchenko Pershe, located approximately 27 miles (43km) to the north-east of Pokrovsk. Additional footage from the same day shows that Russian forces have recently captured Malynivka, located approximately 24 miles (39km) to the north-east of Pokrovsk. These advances form part of Moscow’s ongoing offensive push along the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka axis. As of 25 June, Russian forces also made confirmed advances in central Novoseryhivka, a settlement located to the south-west of Pokrovsk and approximately 17 miles (27km) to the north-east of Novopavlivka. Russian forces are likely in control of the settlement.
  • KHARKIV: On 23 June, a Ukrainian drone regiment commander reported that Russian forces have increased the intensity of operations near Vovchansk (Kharkiv oblast), and they have since made advances. Geolocated footage published on 23 and 25 June indicates that Russian forces have successfully advanced in northern Vovchansk, including reaching the Vovcha River, which runs through the town, in two different positions.
  • KURSK-SUMY: On 24 June, a senior NATO official assessed, under conditions of anonymity, that NATO’s intelligence indicates that the encirclement of Sumy city (Sumy oblast) is unlikely in the near future, given the extremely heavy casualties Russian forces are currently experiencing. The official stated that while Russian forces are making tactical advances in northern Sumy, they will likely attempt to bypass Sumy and expand their frontline to the north and north-east of the city. However, progress in northern Sumy oblast remains very slow, and there has been little major change to the frontline over the last month. While Russian forces will continue efforts to establish a so-called ‘buffer zone’ in Sumy oblast, their capabilities remain limited in the area; Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated earlier on 26 June that his forces have now stabilised the situation and halted the Russian advance.
  • KURSK-SUMY: Geolocated footage published on 23 June confirms earlier Ukrainian reports that Ukrainian forces have successfully retaken Andriivka, a village located approximately 13.5 miles (22km) to the north of Sumy city. Much of the surrounding region remains heavily contested, though geolocated footage from 24 June indicates that Russian forces have nevertheless advanced to the north-west of Andriivka.
  • OSKIL-KREMINNA: Ukrainian forces have made gains in Borova (Kharkiv oblast). Geolocated footage from 25 June shows that Ukrainian forces recently regained positions in Zelenyi Hai, located around 16 miles (27km) to the east of Borova. Advances within the settlement likely indicate that it is now under Ukrainian control. Meanwhile, Ukrainian military authorities reported that Russian offensives in the Kupiansk sector (Kharkiv oblast) have involved unsuccessful attempts to cross the Oskil River. These attacks are typically carried out by small fireteams comprising one to three soldiers.
  • OSKIL-KREMINNA: Further south, geolocated footage published on 23 June indicates that Russian forces have seized one of the last inhabited settlements in Luhansk oblast that had remained under Ukrainian control. The village of Hrekivka, located around 15 miles (24km) south-west of Svatove, sat in one of the small remaining pockets of Luhansk oblast that had remained under Ukrainian control. Russia occupies over 99% of the entire oblast.
  • SOUTHERN: Russian forces continue to advance slowly towards and along the Dnipropetrovsk-Donetsk oblast border. Geolocated footage from 25 June shows that Russian troops recently captured Yalta, located around six miles (10km) to the south of Novopavlivka.
  • STRIKES: Between 24 and 26 June, Russia’s strike campaign involved a relatively low number of drones (fewer than 100 aerial objects) compared with strikes in recent weeks. That said, such attacks continued to target civilian areas, a trend that has intensified in recent strikes. This is evidenced by the missile attack that hit the city of Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk oblast) on 24 June, killing at least 19 people and injuring more than 300 others.
  • STRIKES: Despite the limited number of aerial objects used in strikes over the past few days, we continue to assess that the risk of large-scale attacks involving at least several hundred unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and a variable number of missiles remains elevated in the short-to-medium term. In a speech before the Dutch parliament on 25 June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia has launched 28,743 Shahed-type drones since February 2022. Sibylline’s in-house data shows that Russia has launched over 20,000 drones (all types) in 2025 alone, highlighting a significant intensification of Russian long-range attacks.
  • STRIKES: On 24 June, a Ukrainian media outlet specialising in military affairs reported that forensic analysis of debris from a drone used in a recent attack revealed new features of Moscow’s Shahed-type drones. These include an improved navigation system and the presence of an AI thermal guidance module, which reportedly enhances the UAV’s targeting capabilities at night and in reduced visibility. Moscow has continually upgraded its UAVs with new features, making them increasingly lethal. Such innovations, combined with Russia’s ability to mass-produce UAVs, will pose significant challenges to Ukraine’s air defence capabilities.
  • STRIKES: Meanwhile, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that its forces intercepted 50 Ukrainian UAVs across the country early on 26 June. Explosions were reported in the Russian capital Moscow, where Mayor Sergei Sobyanin stated that emergency services were responding at sites where drones had been down. Previously, on 24 June, Ukrainian Centre for Countering Disinformation Head Andriy Kovalenko reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Russian Atlant-Aero plant in Taganrog (Rostov oblast). The plant reportedly produces critical UAV combat components and control systems.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

  • CEASEFIRE: A US-mediated ceasefire between Iran and Israel announced on 23 June will possibly spur a renewed interest in efforts to resolve the Russo-Ukrainian conflict in the near term. On 25 June, US President Donald Trump stated that he would speak with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin ‘soon’. With tensions between Iran and Israel now lowered, the Trump administration may possibly seek to score another foreign policy win and reinvigorate diplomatic efforts with Russia and Ukraine on ending the war. Ultimately, however, the desire to cease hostilities must come from both parties; we assess that Moscow continues to demonstrate no genuine willingness to make concessions to end the war at present.
  • SANCTIONS: Uncertainty over whether the US will increase sanctions on Russia will highly likely continue to drive frustrations with Ukraine’s European partners and efforts to coordinate pressure. According to unspecified European diplomatic officials, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio disclosed on 24 June that the Senate would likely consider new legislation to ramp up punitive measures against Moscow in the near term. However, on 25 June, Rubio maintained that the Trump administration’s stance is to hold off on imposing new sanctions, given concern that taking such action could jeopardise efforts towards a ceasefire. Nevertheless, an unspecified senior US official explained that the Senate is independent and, at some point, will seek to progress the sanctions legislation. Despite this, we assess that the Trump administration will likely remain reluctant to increase sanctions against Russia in the near-to-medium term.
  • SANCTIONS: Meanwhile, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó stated on 23 June that Hungary and Slovakia will not support the EU’s 18th sanctions package against Russia. Budapest and Bratislava have decided to block the new raft of punitive measures in response to the bloc’s plans to phase out Russian energy imports. Unspecified EU diplomats have interpreted Szijjártó’s statement as a negotiating tactic and expect a resolution ahead of a meeting of EU leaders on 26-27 June in Brussels (Belgium). While it is possible that the bloc will reach a compromise with Hungary and Slovakia in the near term, sanctions proposals require unanimity for adoption. As such, anticipated Hungarian and Slovakian opposition to the latest tranche of sanctions will possibly delay the new measures being implemented in the near term. For further analysis on what is included in the package, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 12 June 2025.
  • KOREA: South Korean intelligence assessments claim that North Korea may possibly deploy additional troops to Russia in the coming weeks. According to reports from earlier on 26 June, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service believes Russia may be preparing to mount a large-scale offensive against Ukraine in July or August. South Korean lawmaker Lee Seong-kweun stated that North Korea is also sending artillery ammunition and missiles to Russia, with Pyongyang likely receiving technical advice for satellite launches and missile guidance systems in exchange. While we cannot confirm the development, if true, it indicates that North Korea is possibly willing to aid Russia with manpower beyond reclaiming Kursk oblast, where North Korean troops had deployed previously.
  • KYIV: On 26 June, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) and National Police are conducting planned exercises in the centre of the capital Kyiv (specifically its Shevchenkivskyi district) to test counter-terrorism and counter-sabotage capabilities. Law enforcement officers will conduct inspections of the area and buildings in the vicinity, including apartments and offices, and carry out checks on citizens. The authorities have warned that checks of personal identification documents, travel restrictions and vehicle inspections are possible during these exercises. Moderate travel disruption and a heightened police presence in the abovementioned district are likely throughout 26 June and possibly into the coming day(s).

FORECAST

NATO: On 24-25 June, NATO allies gathered for a summit in The Hague (the Netherlands), where various nations committed to continued military support for Ukraine, but reference to Ukraine’s potential membership was notably absent. At the event, members of the alliance agreed to commit to investing 5% of their GDP on defence spending (up from the current 2% target) by 2035. Notably, the summit’s declaration failed to condemn Russia for its ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine. There was also no mention of Ukraine’s NATO membership ambitions, unlike last year’s declaration, which described Kyiv as being on an ‘irreversible path’ towards membership. However, we continue to assess that Ukraine’s membership remains highly unlikely, with the omission of such references likely reflecting the lack of willingness to admit Kyiv in the foreseeable future. Trump stated on 25 June that the US ‘will see’ whether it can supply Ukraine with additional missiles for Patriot air defence systems, in a notable indication that further air defences remain possible. Trump acknowledged that the missiles are difficult to obtain and that the US is supplying them to Israel, which Washington DC likely regards as a bigger priority. Trump’s comments came amid his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the summit. Zelensky raised purchasing US air defence systems to shield Ukrainian cities during their conversation, and they discussed how to achieve a ceasefire and ‘real peace’, among other issues. Trump’s comments do not represent a concrete pledge to provide such assistance, given there has been little indication of any major weapons package to Ukraine since Trump’s inauguration. Nevertheless, the comments do indicate a possible willingness to sell Ukraine Patriot systems, which remain the most effective long-range air defence system available to Ukraine, and for which missiles and launchers are in ever-worsening short supply. Ultimately, however, larger-scale weapons packages from the US are unlikely in the short term and it may require wider European backing to secure further Patriot systems for Ukraine. Ahead of the summit, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced a new package of military aid for Ukraine, paid for using the interest generated from frozen Russian assets. As part of the assistance, the UK will transfer 350 advanced air defence missiles, funded by GBP 70m (nearly USD 96m) worth of interest. Five additional Raven air defence launcher systems will also be handed to Kyiv, bringing their total to 13. The development marks the UK’s first direct use of Russia-linked funds to purchase military aid for Ukraine, which could realistically encourage other allies to take similar action over the coming months. However, Russia’s response to the UK’s move will likely determine whether other states follow suit, given fears of Russian retaliation, namely the seizure or threat of seizure of assets inside Russia. The summit’s declaration described Russia as a ‘long-term threat’ to Euro-Atlantic security, with Trump also stating on 25 June that he believes it is possible that Russia harbours territorial ambitions beyond Ukraine. Trump did not specify which countries he believed could be at risk, however. Nevertheless, we continue to assess that Russia is highly unlikely to directly attack a European country (especially one in NATO) in the short-to-medium term, due to Russia’s current embroilment in Ukraine. However, amid Russia’s continued military reconstitution and expansion of its armed forces, Moscow is likely preparing for potential future conflict, even if it highly likely wants to avoid a direct confrontation with NATO in the short term.

Jun 23.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

  • OFFENSIVES: The Ukrainian commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, gave an update on the strategic situation across the frontline, underlining Ukraine’s determination to conduct an active defence, despite Russia’s advantages in personnel and fibre-optic drones
  • STRIKES: Russia’s long-range strike campaign has focused on large-scale, high-intensity combined strikes against the capital Kyiv this week, likely aiming to saturate air defences
  • MARITIME: Reports that a Russian warship has escorted sanctioned tankers through the English Channel for the first time underscores growing militarisation of shipping and growing risks of confrontation in the Baltic and North seas
  • FORECAST: President Vladimir Putin has reiterated typical Russian narratives regarding Russians and Ukrainians being a single people to justify broader territorial ambitions, underscoring Moscow’s wider objectives in Ukraine
  • OFFENSIVES: On 22 June, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that in the future, Ukrainian forces will not merely focus on static defence, but will conduct an active defence together with offensive operations. Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian forces will move beyond a simple ‘blind defence’ and will attack when weaknesses in Russian forces present themselves. Syrskyi has obtained a reputation as an aggressive commander, launching various bold counter-offensive operations despite increasing personnel shortages. While an active defence will place further pressure on Ukraine’s personnel shortages, tactical counter-attacks have succeeded in blunting Russian offensives at various points throughout the war.
  • OFFENSIVES: Skyrskyi also acknowledged that, while Ukraine has an advantage in first-person-view (FPV) drones on the battlefield, Russia currently has the advantage in fibre-optic drones in terms of both quantity and range. Fibre-optic drones have come to dominate the battlefield in recent months, given their resistance to external electronic warfare jamming. Russia can operate fibre-optic drones at a range of 25 miles (40km), while Ukrainian equivalents generally only operate at a range of 12.5 miles (20km), putting Ukraine at a disadvantage. While Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian manufacturers are catching up, in the meantime, Russia will continue to leverage this advantage and strike deeper behind the line, forcing Ukrainian forces to concentrate forces further from the frontline.
  • OFFENSIVES: Syrskyi also assessed that Russia has deployed 695,000 troops to Ukraine, formed across 13 divisions and several regiments and brigades in its strategic reserve (totalling around 121,000 troops). The assessment that Russia is currently building a strategic reserve is significant and only reinforces the advantage Russia currently enjoys in terms of overall personnel levels. However, it also likely reflects Moscow’s wider reconstitution of its ground forces and efforts to expand the overall size of the armed forces in order to not just prosecute an attritional war in Ukraine, but to position against NATO for a potential future conflict.
  • BAKHMUT: Russian forces are successfully consolidating control over Toretsk and are pushing north towards Kostiantynivka, though the stubborn Ukrainian defence of Shcherbynivka to the west will likely continue to slow Russia’s rate of advance. Geolocated footage published on 19 June confirms that Russian forces have advanced in fields to the north of Toretsk, strongly indicating that they have successfully pushed Ukrainian forces out of northern Toretsk and are pushing north. Further to the west, Russian forces are also advancing along the T-0504 and H-20 highways, both of which run north towards Kostiantynivka. Geolocated footage published on 18 and 21 June confirms that Russian forces have advanced into Oleksandro-Kalynove, a village located approximately six miles (10km) south-west of the outskirts of Kostiantynivka. Russian forces are also advancing inside nearby Yablunivka, located to the north-west of Oleksandro-Kalynove.
  • DONETSK: Nothing significant to report
  • KHARKIV: Nothing significant to report
  • KURSK-SUMY: On 22 June, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukraine’s forces have managed to stabilise the Sumy frontline and have stopped the Russian advance. Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces have recaptured Andriivka, a village located approximately 13.5 miles (22km) to the north of Sumy city. While geolocated footage published on 22 June does indicate that Ukrainian forces advanced in southern Andriivka, we cannot yet confirm that Ukraine has regained control of the rest of the settlement. Syrskyi also claimed that Ukrainian forces have advanced between 200 and 700m further east near the village of Yunakivka over the last week. While the rate of Russian advances has slowed significantly in recent weeks, Syrskyi nevertheless assessed that Russian forces are still attempting to create a buffer zone in northern Sumy oblast. For further analysis on Russia’s territorial claims in Sumy oblast, see the FORECAST below.
  • KURSK-SUMY: Meanwhile, Syrskyi also reported that across the border, Ukrainian forces are still in control of 35 square miles (90 sq km) of territory in Glushkovsky district (Kursk oblast) inside Russia. This toehold is all that is left of the originally 500 square miles (1,300 sq km) presence Ukrainian forces managed to establish last August before the collapse of the Kursk salient earlier this year.
  • OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
  • SOUTHERN: Russian forces have made gains south of Novopavlivka (Dnipropetrovsk oblast) and west of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast). Geolocated footage from 21 June indicates that Russian troops have likely captured the village of Zaporizhzhia, located to the south of Novopavlivka. Further footage from 22 June likely shows that Russian forces seized the settlements of Komar and Perebudova, both situated further south and to the north of Velyka Novosilka.
  • SOUTHERN: Further west on the Zaporizhzhia axis, geolocated footage from 20 June indicates that Russian forces have advanced into central Malynivka, a town located 20 miles (32km) to the south-west of Velyka Novosilka in Zaporizhzhia oblast. Russian forces have made very little progress on this stretch of the frontline over the last 12 months; thus, the seizure of the centre of the town is notable and will moderately increase pressure on the much larger Ukrainian town of Huliaipole to the west.
  • STRIKES: In recent days, Russia’s strike campaign has followed a consistent pattern observed over the past few weeks, characterised by significant, large-scale combined attacks. For instance, on 21 June, Moscow launched, in all, 272 drones and eight missiles. After a relatively small-scale attack the following day, it launched a high-intensity attack involving 353 drones and 16 missiles earlier on 23 June, including 11 ballistic missiles and five cruise missiles. In the case of the most recent attack, Ukraine’s Air Force (UAF) claimed the interception of 146 drones (with 193 additional drones reported lost), seven ballistic missiles (three of such missile systems reported lost) and all cruise missiles. Despite the moderately high interception rate, that attack caused significant damage in the capital Kyiv and the broader Kyiv oblast, killing at least seven individuals. Six direct hits were confirmed; falling debris reportedly damaged 25 locations.
  • STRIKES: Recent strike patterns likely indicate that Russia is currently concentrating large, combined strikes on the capital Kyiv. This is reflective of Moscow’s saturation strategy, aimed at overwhelming Kyiv’s denser air defence network through sheer volume, primarily using drones and, to a lesser extent, missiles. This strategy is placing considerable pressure on Ukraine’s air defence resources. While Ukraine reports an average 82% drone interception rate, according to Ukraine’s General Staff, attacks involving large numbers of aerial threats force the country to expend valuable air defence ammunition. We assess that Russia is likely able to sustain the current tempo of strikes in the short to medium term, which will increasingly degrade Ukraine’s air defence capacity and contribute to a steady deterioration of the country’s broader threat environment.
  • STRIKES: On 21 June, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi announced that Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory between January and May cost Russia over USD 10 bn, including USD 1.3 bn in direct damage to industrial facilities. In recent months, Ukraine has intensified its drone strikes against Russian military and industrial assets as part of its ‘DeepStrike’ strategy, aimed at undermining Moscow’s war effort.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

  • MARITIME: Reports emerged on 22 June that a Russian warship had escorted sanctioned tankers through the English Channel for the first time. Automatic identification systems (AIS) data from 16 June showed co-ordinated movement between the Steregushchiy-class corvette Boikiy and two tankers under UK sanctions; the convoy was headed toward Russian ports reportedly to load oil. While the first such deployment in the English Channel, the Russian Navy has accompanied its shadow fleet, which it uses to evade sanctions, with naval forces in the Baltic Sea amid growing concerns over open confrontation or miscalculation risks. The developments coincide with Western discussions regarding the lowering of the price cap on Russian oil to further curb revenues from its oil resources (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 12 June 2025). As such, the manoeuvre could realistically aim to deter the G7 from taking further action; however, it also indicates a more proactive Russian escorting policy designed to prevent or deter littoral states from boarding Russian vessels suspected of being sanctioned in their waters.
  • MARITIME: In this context, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul warned on 20 June that the Baltic Sea is turning into a dangerous geopolitical hotspot due to Russian grey zone activity. Wadephul assessed that the risk of military confrontation within this region is ‘real’, a statement which we assess that the deployment of Russian surface naval assets to escort tankers will only reinforce. Bold Russian actions in European waters (principally the Baltic and North seas) will increase regional tensions, as well as the threat of miscalculation and resultant confrontation.
  • EUROPE: Zelensky claimed on 22 June that unspecified Ukrainian intelligence suggests that Russia is preparing ‘new military operations’ on European territory. However, Zelensky did not provide further details on the scope of the alleged planned Russian operations, when or how these could take shape or which countries might be targeted. Our assessment remains that Russia is highly unlikely to directly attack a European country (especially one in NATO) in the short-to-medium term, given its military embroilment in Ukraine and the risk of direct confrontation with NATO. However, grey zone operations remain increasingly likely amid a long-running strategic deterrence campaign across the European continent. New incidents of sabotage, which offer Russia plausible deniability, remain likely over the coming months. For further analysis on Russian grey zone operations and how we assess they will evolve across Europe.

FORECAST

WAR GOALS: On 20 June, President Vladimir Putin reiterated typical Russian narratives regarding Russians and Ukrainians being one people to justify broader territorial ambitions in Ukraine. Putin claimed that, in theory, ‘all of Ukraine’ is Russia. At the same time, Putin stated that Moscow has never questioned Ukraine’s right to independence and sovereignty, which contradicts his abovementioned remarks. Putin’s recent comments further reinforce our assessment that Russia maintains broader territorial ambitions in Ukraine and that Moscow remains committed to its maximalist objectives. The Russian president later disclosed that while taking control over Sumy city (Sumy oblast) is not one of the Russian military’s objectives, he does not rule out this possibility ‘in principle’. Putin also claimed that there is an old rule that ‘wherever a Russian soldier sets foot,’ that land is Russian. Russia has not formally declared Sumy oblast as part of its territory, though such comments could realistically be indicative of future Russian territorial objectives, with ambitions to make additional territorial acquisitions in Kharkiv oblast also likely. Meanwhile, in an interview with Sky News Arabia on 21 June, Putin emphasised that Ukraine must recognise the results of Russian-held referenda held in September 2022 in Russian-occupied regions to become part of Russia. According to him, Kyiv’s refusal to recognise the results of these votes held in parts of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts under Russian control will sustain the risk of renewed conflict in the future. This confirms not only that Russia is highly unlikely to entertain territorial concessions to end the war, but that non-recognition of Russian territorial control could realistically facilitate a resumption of the war in Ukraine at a later date, potentially even after a ceasefire or temporary peace had been agreed. Aside from territorial claims, Russia’s war objectives have remained largely unchanged since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Putin insisted in the 21 June interview that Ukraine must declare itself a neutral state, not obtain nuclear weapons and not join any military alliances (meaning NATO). The Russian president also stated that a resolution to the conflict must also guarantee the status of the Russian language in Ukraine and the ‘rights’ of Ukrainians with Russian sympathies. These recent statements underscore our ongoing assessment that Russian officials are attempting to increase pressure on Ukraine to agree to Moscow’s demands now for fear of being forced to agree to harsher terms later. For example, Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, stated on 20 June that Russia’s peace memorandum is ‘the best offer Ukraine can get today’. For further analysis on Russia’s ‘peace’ terms, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 5 June 2025. Lastly, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated on 20 June that Russia expects to agree with Ukraine on a date for the next round of peace talks in the coming days. Even if the two sides do agree to hold new negotiations in the near term, we continue to assess that the likelihood of a major breakthrough is low. Recent comments from Putin and Nebenzya will reaffirm Ukraine’s perceptions that Russia is currently unwilling to work towards achieving a genuine and stable ceasefire (or peace settlement) for as long as their forces continue to advance on the battlefield. (Source: Sibylline)

 

27 Jun 25. Netherlands Orders 600,000 Ukrainian Drones and 100 UAV Detection Radars for Ukraine. The Netherlands is donating 100 additional drone detection radars to Ukraine. Vehicles for transporting casualties are also being sent to the country. Furthermore, the Netherlands is investing extra money in drone support. This is a support package totaling approximately €175 million. This is in addition to contracts that have been signed with Ukrainian industry these days to produce €500 million worth of drones. Minister Ruben Brekelmans announced this prior to the NATO Summit Defence Industry Forum in The Hague. Ukraine will receive 100 drone detection radars. These systems are able to detect drones and then pass this information on to air defense systems that can neutralize the drones. The delivery of the detection radars should be completed by the end of the year. Also, 20 Ermine casevac (partly) unmanned vehicles will go to Ukraine. The country can use these modular systems to evacuate wounded people. Finally, the Netherlands is making an additional €80 million available for drones. This support is provided via the international drone coalition. The Netherlands previously announced that it would invest €20 million in this. The new support package is in addition to the €400 million package for maritime safety that was recently announced . In addition, the Netherlands has signed contracts with Ukrainian industry these days for the production of 600,000 drones. This concerns a package of €500 million for drones that Ukraine urgently needs on the front line. This so-called Drone Line Initiative contributes to Russia not being able to break through.

“The relentless Russian airstrikes show daily that air defense is literally a matter of life and death for Ukraine. That is why it is so important that we can supply the drone detection radars. In addition, it is an important step that we have signed large production contracts with the Ukrainian drone industry and are also increasing our support by another €80 million. Drones and unmanned systems are the new spearhead in our support for Ukraine.”

The minister added that the Netherlands will continue its support for Ukraine unabated.

“For 3.5 years, the tireless Ukrainian troops have been fighting on the front against Russian aggression. The Ukrainian troops are supported by an enormously steadfast and resilient population. I have incredible respect for this. In addition to strengthening our own armed forces, support for Ukraine is the best way to stop the cruel Russian expansionist drive. We therefore remain steadfast in our support for Ukraine.” (Source: UAS VISION/Netherlands Ministry of Defence)

 

26 Jun 25. Operation Interflex reaches three-year milestone. UK-led training programme of Ukrainian recruits launched on 26 June 2022. More than 56,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been trained by the UK and 13 partner nations on Operation Interflex; the UK-led, multination training programme.   Today (Thursday 26 June 2025) marks three years since the first Ukrainian trainees landed on British soil to begin the vital military training that turns civilians into soldiers capable of returning home to repel Russia’s illegal invasion of their country.   During this time Operation Interflex has continued to evolve to match the specific threats being faced on the frontlines in Ukraine. A variety of training programmes have been delivered via Operation Interflex focussed on equipping trainees with the battlefield essentials: the basic infantry course, leadership training, and instructor courses, which continuously adapt to Ukraine’s needs.  Led by the UK, Operation Interflex has been delivered alongside 13 other partner nations: Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Albania, Estonia, Kosovo, Lithuania, and Romania. Service personnel from these nations are united in the objective to deliver high quality training that meets the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.   At a recent meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (UDCG) on the 4 June, the Defence Secretary announced that the UK will spend a further £247m this year on training the Armed Forces of Ukraine, supporting Operation Interflex’s highly successful training programmes. This funding not only supports Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression, but it is also vital in ensuring both European and UK security, underpinned by the Government’s Plan for Change.   Recent polling data reveals that 90% of all the trainees who have completed Interflex training since January 2025 feel more confident in their lethality and survivability at the end of training. The polling also revealed that one of the most valued elements of the training is the battlefield first aid, with 93% of basic recruits saying they felt more confident about treating casualties after receiving the training.   (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

 

25 Jun 25. UK to provide hundreds of air defence missiles for Ukraine with money from seized Russian assets. The UK will boost Ukraine’s air defence with 350 missiles using funds from seized Russian assets, helping to protect Ukrainians from Putin’s attacks.

  • UK to provide 350 ASRAAM air defence missiles using £70m of funding raised from the interest on seized Russian assets
  • The new package of missiles can be used with UK-provided air defence launchers, helping to protect Ukrainian citizens from Russian missile and drone attacks
  • Comes as the Prime Minister and Defence Secretary visit The Hague for an annual summit of NATO leaders, with de-escalation in the Middle East and support for Ukraine topping the agenda

The UK will boost Ukraine’s air defence with 350 missiles using funds from seized Russian assets, helping to protect Ukrainians from Putin’s attacks. The ASRAAM missiles can be fired using the RAVEN Ground Based Air Defence System supplied by the UK to Ukraine, with five more RAVEN systems due for imminent delivery, bringing the total to 13.   Initially used as air-to-air missiles fired from fighter jets, RAF engineers adapted ASRAAM in just three months to be launched from the back of a UK designed and built truck, working with a British defence industry team from MBDA UK, based in Bolton.  The UK, together with allies, is stepping up its support for Ukraine – providing £4.5 bn of military support this year – more than ever before.  This support is vital to European security but is also supporting economic growth across the UK, supporting the Prime Minister’s Plan for Change and delivering a defence dividend across the UK. The missiles will be funded using £70m worth of interest generated from seized Russian assets under the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) scheme.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “Russia, not Ukraine, should pay the price for Putin’s barbaric and illegal war, so it is only right we use the proceeds from seized Russian assets to ensure Ukraine has the air defence it needs. The security of Ukraine is vital to the security of the UK and the Euro-Atlantic area, and our support will never waiver. My message to President Putin is clear: Russia needs to stop its indiscriminate attacks on innocent Ukrainian people and return to the negotiating table.”

It comes as the Prime Minister, Defence Secretary and Foreign Secretary join NATO leaders for the Alliance’s annual summit in the Hague, where they will meet counterparts to discuss de-escalation efforts in the Middle East, as well as further military support for Ukraine.

Defence Secretary John Healey MP said: “Ukrainians are continuing to fight with huge courage – civilians and military alike. I am committed to ensuring Ukraine has the support they need to put them in the strongest possible position to secure peace.  Russia’s indiscriminate missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities show that Putin is not serious about peace, and it’s right that we use funds from seized Russian assets to help Ukraine defend itself from this onslaught. These air defence missiles will save Ukrainian lives, using equipment developed jointly by British military engineers and our defence industry – showing how we are delivering on our Strategic Defence Review’s commitment to learn lessons from Ukraine.”

In March, the Prime Minister announced a historic £1.6 bn deal to provide more than five thousand air defence missiles for Ukraine – creating 200 new jobs and supporting a further 700. Defence supports more than 434,000 skilled jobs in the UK.    The UK will also invest a record £350m this year to increase the supply of drones to Ukraine from a target of 10,000 in 2024 to 100,000 in 2025.   The UK has sent around 400 different capabilities to Ukraine, with a £150 m package including drones, tanks and air defence systems announced on 12 February 2025, a £225 m package including drones, boats and munitions announced on 19 December 2024, and 650 lightweight multirole missiles announced on 6 September 2024. The UK is absolutely committed to securing a just and lasting peace in Ukraine and are engaging with key allies in support of this effort. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

 

25 Jun 25. Ukraine Approves New ‘Svitlovod’ FPV Fibre-Optic Drone. The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has codified and approved for operation in the Armed Forces of Ukraine the domestic unmanned FPV aviation complex ‘Svitlovod’. This was reported by the Main Directorate for Lifecycle Support of Armaments and Military Equipment. Drones of the “Svitlovod” complex are built on a strong frame, have high-performance engines, and capacious lightweight batteries. These “birds” have a fiber-optic control channel, deliver a warhead to a distance of several tens of kilometers. The drones are equipped with automatic target detection and recognition systems. Depending on the configuration, they can be equipped with day or night cameras. The ‘Fibre Optic’ deploys into combat position in a few minutes. Since the beginning of 2025, more than 60 samples of unmanned aircraft systems with a fiber-optic control channel have been approved for operation in the troops. (Source: UAS VISION/Ministry of Defense of Ukraine)

 

24 Jun 25. Front line drone technology to fuel UK – Ukraine partnership. A landmark agreement between the UK and Ukraine to share battlefield technology has been reached today, boosting Ukraine’s drone production and linking up the UK’s defence industry with the cutting-edge technology being developed on the front lines in Ukraine. A landmark agreement between the UK and Ukraine to share battlefield technology has been reached today, boosting Ukraine’s drone production and linking up the UK’s defence industry with the cutting-edge technology being developed on the front lines in Ukraine. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Zelenskyy reached the agreement during the Ukrainian leader’s visit to Downing Street today. Technology data sets from Ukraine’s front line are set to be plugged into UK production lines, allowing British defence firms to rapidly design and build, at scale, cutting edge military equipment available nowhere else in the world. Ukraine is the world leader in drone design and execution, with drone technology evolving, on average, every six weeks. The agreement will allow that data to be shared with UK firms to quickly build and produce large numbers of drones for Ukraine’s front lines. It will also ensure a defence dividend continues to be delivered across the country – boosting Ukraine’s defence with deliveries of new equipment, while also supporting British jobs.  Initial agreements between defence firms in both countries are expected to be rolled out in the coming weeks, with the aim of delivering Ukraine large numbers of battle-proven drones to continue to stave off Russia’s barbaric invasion over the coming months and years. The UK will also allocate up to £280m of bilateral assistance to Ukraine for financial year 2025-2026 today to keep the country in the fight and ensure Ukrainians living through Russia’s illegal invasion have access to vital support.   The funding will support humanitarian, energy, stabilisation, reform, recovery and reconstruction programmes. Today’s extra funding takes the UK’s non-military support to Ukraine since the start of the invasion to over £5bn. This includes £4.1bn in fiscal support, and over £1.2bn in bilateral assistance.  The industrial pilots and subsequent orders will be funded through the UK’s £4.5bn of military support this year. It also delivers on the Strategic Defence Review’s recommendations for the UK Armed Forces to move towards a greater use of autonomy. Initially, the industrial partnership is expected to increase information and expertise sharing between the UK and Ukraine on drone-based air defence, but the agreement also paves the way for both countries to work on capabilities for the future, long after the war finishes. It comes after strong collaboration between UK and Ukrainian innovation and military teams and builds on the partnerships created through the UK’s joint leadership of the international drone coalition. The pilots and subsequent orders will be funded through the UK’s £4.5bn of military support this year and the UK’s commitment to provide £3bn a year of military support to Ukraine in future years. It also delivers on the Strategic Defence Review’s recommendations for the UK Armed Forces to move towards a greater use of autonomy. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

Comment: Andriy Dovbenko, Principal and Founder, UK-Ukraine TechExchange

“Reaching an agreement to share battlefield technology between the UK and Ukraine will be of huge advantage to both nations, with the UK now set to gain from Ukraine’s warp-speed drone innovation cycles and cost-effective, NATO-coded technologies. In turn, the UK is home to Europe’s most advanced and well-funded technology ecosystem and is well-placed to develop its defence production lines, which will play an enormous role in the delivery of the Strategic Defence Review’s recommendations.

There does, however, seem to be a crucial omission. In the weeks since Ukraine’s Spiderweb Operation, we’ve seen sabotage carried out by a protest group on bikes at Brize Norton, Iran threaten the Middle East airbases of the US, UK and France, and China unveil mosquito-sized drones “suited to information reconnaissance and special missions on the battlefield”. This thread of activity has only exposed the vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure and equipment worth bns. While there is a necessary focus on attack drones, it must be more than mere hope that secures the key buildings, personnel and technology now deemed viable targets. It might not have stopped the bicycles, but electronic warfare-based drone detection and suppression technology should line every valuable perimeter – before it’s too late.”

 

24 Jun 25. Kongsberg signs deals with Ukraine on air-defence missiles, equipping USVs with Protector RWS. Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace (KDA) has signed agreements with unnamed Ukrainian defence companies to deliver air-defence missiles and unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) in Ukraine, according to the company’s 22 June press release. The first agreement is a memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Kongsberg and a “major Ukrainian industry player”, according to the release. The deal will see a joint development and production of air-defence missiles, which can be delivered in large quantities and integrated with the Kongsberg- and Raytheon-developed National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) air-defence system in Ukraine.

“We are preparing new solutions based on NASAMS to strengthen our defence of the population and critical infrastructure,” Ukraine’s Minister of Defence Rustem Umerov said in a social media post on 22 June.

In January 2025, Umerov announced the possibility of integrating Ukrainian air-defence assets into NASAMS. In February 2025, Eirik Lie, president of KDA, said in a media interview that the company was looking to increase missile production of air-defence systems in Ukraine based on “Ukrainian technology” via a joint venture within a few months. The Norwegian government, in partnership with KDA and Ukraine, will finance the development of the missiles. In November 2022, Ukraine’s then Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov said Ukraine received its first delivery of NASAMS. A standard unit of the NASAMS medium-range system has a modular design, which consists of a command post, a Raytheon AN/MPQ-64F1 Sentinel active 3D radar, a passive electro-optic/infrared (EO/IR) sensor, and a number of missile canisters launching Raytheon’s Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM). NASAMS is operational in 13 countries, according to Kongsberg. (Source: Janes)

 

23 Jun 25. Kongsberg to Develop Missiles and Drone Boats in Ukraine. Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace (‘KONGSBERG’) has entered agreements with two major Ukrainian industry players to develop and deliver low-cost, high-volume air defence missiles and unmanned surface vessels in the country. At the same time, the company announced it is establishing a permanent office in Kyiv. During a visit to the Ukrainian capital, Eirik Lie, President of Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace, and a Ukrainian partner, signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to jointly develop and produce air defence missiles that can be used against various targets, such as drones.

“There is an urgent need to produce more cost-effective air defence missiles in large volumes, to deal with threats from attacking drones. Together with our Ukrainian partner, and with support from the Norwegian authorities, we look forward to developing an effective missile that we can manufacture and deliver in large numbers and that can be integrated with the NASAMS air defence system,” said Eirik Lie, President of Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace.

“The NASAMS air defence systems help save Ukrainian lives and protect critical infrastructure every day in Ukraine. The government is now funding the development of air defence missiles that are cheaper to produce and that can be used in conjunction with the NASAMS air defence system in Ukraine,” said Minister of Defense Tore O. Sandvik.

The ceremony was attended by Sandvik and his Ukrainian counterpart Rustem Umerov, as KONGSBERG marked the opening of its new office in Kyiv.

Separately, KONGSBERG signed an MoU with another domestic industrial player for the development of unmanned surface vessels, or drone boats, equipped with weapon stations from KONGSBERG.

“Unmanned vessels play a major role in helping Ukraine to defend its territory, and neutralise the Russian navy in the Black Sea, and with support from Kongsberg’s PROTECTOR weapon station systems and our domestic partners, we are ready to deliver the next generation unmanned maritime capabilities,” Lie added.

Norway is also funding the development of the unmanned maritime capabilities. (Source: ASD Network)

 

24 Jun 25. Ukraine Reveals Details of Foiled Assassination Plot Against Zelenskyy in Poland. Ukrainian authorities have disclosed new details about a foiled assassination plot targeting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Rzeszów Airport in Poland in 2024. During a closed-door briefing with Ukrainian journalists, Vasyl Maliuk, head of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), revealed that the plot was orchestrated by a Polish citizen and retired military officer named Paweł K. Maliuk said the suspect had been recruited by the Soviet Union decades ago and continued to hold pro-Soviet views. According to Maliuk, Russian intelligence recently “activated” him to carry out the assassination. The plan reportedly involved either shooting Zelenskyy with a sniper rifle or deploying a first-person view (FPV) drone during the president’s arrival at Rzeszów Airport. The airport, located in southeastern Poland, serves as a critical route for Ukrainian officials and a key hub for international military aid. According to Maliuk, Ukrainian Special Services, in close cooperation with Poland’s Internal Security Agency (ABW), successfully disrupted the plot before it could be executed. Paweł K. was arrested and later indicted by Polish prosecutors on espionage charges. The charges carry a prison sentence of up to eight years. The Polish Ministry of Interior confirmed that Paweł K. had agreed to help Russia by collecting information about the airport to assist in planning the assassination.

“The findings of the investigation indicate that Paweł K. declared readiness to act for the benefit of the Russian GRU,” said ministry spokesman Jacek Dobrzyński. “His tasks were to include gathering information about Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport.”

This latest foiled assassination plot marks one of the attempts on Zelenskyy’s life since the Russian invasion started in February 2022. In May 2024, Ukrainian authorities arrested two security officers accused of passing information to Russia and planning attacks against Zelenskyy and other high-ranking officials. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

 

23 Jun 25. Norway steps up with $400m for Ukrainian drones – Zelenskyy. Norwegian Defense Minister Tore Onshuus Sandvik visited Ukraine and announced a $400m aid package to supply drones to the Ukrainian military, states President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his evening video address.

“There is a decision to invest $400 m into our production, primarily for drones. We’re working together to create all the necessary conditions to manufacture air defense systems here in Ukraine. We are taking real steps toward this with Norway,” President Zelenskyy said.

According to him, Norway’s Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace, one of Europe’s largest defense companies and the manufacturer of NASAMS air defense systems, has already opened operations in Ukraine. Ukraine first received NASAMS air defense systems in November 2022. Within just the first five months of their deployment, Ukrainian air defense forces used them to shoot down over a hundred missiles and drones. Earlier, during the June Ramstein-format meeting, President Zelenskyy proposed that Western partners begin assembling air defense systems, specifically NASAMS, directly on Ukrainian soil. Back in February, Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace President Eirik Lie announced plans to begin missile production for NASAMS in Ukraine. According to him, joint ventures for large-scale missile manufacturing could be launched within a matter of months. (Source: https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/)

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