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Jun 01.
01 June 25. To attack Russian air bases, Ukraine hid drones in wooden sheds.
May 30.
30 May 25. Ukraine has ordered the evacuation of 11 more villages in its Sumy region as fears grow that Moscow is gearing up for a new ground assault. Russia claims to have captured several villages in the north-eastern region in recent weeks, and has amassed more than 50,000 soldiers on the other side of the border, according to Kyiv. The evacuations come just two days before possible talks between the two sides in Istanbul, as Washington called on both to end the three-year war. Russia has confirmed that it will send a delegation to the Turkish city but Ukraine has yet to accept the proposal, warning that the talks would not yield results unless the Kremlin provided its peace terms in advance. On Friday, Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, accused Moscow of doing “everything” it could to sabotage the potential meeting by withholding its peace terms. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
Military And Security Developments
May 29.
• BAKHMUT: Russian forces have successfully closed the Ukrainian pocket south-west of Toretsk, representing notable progress that will support efforts to set conditions for an eventual advance to Kostiantynivka to the north
• KURSK-SUMY: On 22 May Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that a decision had been made to establish a ‘buffer zone’ along the international border with Ukraine, reflecting a further hardening of Russia’s territorial demands
• STRIKES: Between 24 and 26 May, Russia conducted a record series of extremely large-scale, high-intensity combined strikes against Ukraine, including a large number of ballistic and cruise missiles
• FORECAST: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has proposed holding a second round of direct talks with Ukraine on 2 June in Istanbul (Turkey), but a major breakthrough remains highly unlikely
• BAKHMUT: Russian forces have successfully closed the Ukrainian pocket south-west of Toretsk, representing notable progress that will support efforts to set conditions for an eventual advance to Kostiantynivka to the north. Geolocated footage published on 25 May indicates that Russian forces seized the villages of Romanivka, Stara Mykolaivka and the majority of Zorya, the latter of which is located roughly six miles (10km) west of Toretsk along the H20 highway.
• BAKHMUT: Russian forces have been attempting to eliminate the Ukrainian pocket for around four months, and the latest advances will support Russia’s wider efforts to advance north along the nearby T-0504 highway, located to the north-west of Zorya. Otherwise, both Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to advance in and around Toretsk itself, which continues to put up a stubborn defence which will likely continue delaying Russian plans to march on Kostiantynivka to the north. Nevertheless, Russian advances in and around the town, as well as further west between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, underscore growing pressure on Ukrainian defences. Geolocated footage published on 26 May has confirmed that Russian forces have now reached the village of Popiv Yar, which is the furthest northerly point of the Russian spearhead advancing north between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka.
• BAKHMUT: On 24 May, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that its forces had seized Stupochky, a village located around 2.5 miles (4km) south-west of Chasiv Yar and sits of the T-0504 highway that runs south-west to Kostiantynivka. While this remains visually unconfirmed, if Russian forces have taken the village, this would further indicate that Russian forces are successfully increasing pressure around Chasiv Yar, and are setting conditions for an eventual advance towards Kostiantynivka, located just four miles (6km) to the west.
• BAKHMUT: Further north in Chasiv Yar itself, both Russia and Ukrainian forces have advanced over the last week, reflecting the heavily contested nature of the frontline town and surrounding area. Geolocated footage from 27 May indicates that Russian forces made rare advances in the town centre, specifically along Dniprovska Street at two separate locations. Meanwhile, however, footage from 23 May indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced north-east of Zaliznyanske, a village located around 10 miles (6km) north of Bakhmut.
• DONETSK: Over the past few days, Russian forces progressed east of Pokrovsk and also further south-west towards Novopavlivika (Dnipropetrovsk oblast). Geolocated footage from 27 May shows Russian forces advancing in western Malynivka and Yelyzavetivka, both settlements located 13 miles (21km) and 15.5 miles (25km) to the east of Pokrovsk. Meanwhile, Russian forces also advanced further south-west of Pokrovsk towards Novopavlivka. Geolocated footage from 23 and 24 May shows recent Russian advances in the north-east of Troitske and northern Bohdanivka, both located around 13 miles (21km) to the south-east of Novopavlivka. According to the footage, Russia has likely seized Bohdanivka, underscoring the slow but steady progress Russian forces are making in this direction.
• KHARKIV: Geolocated footage published on 26 May indicates that Russian forces likely took control of the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant in northern Vovchansk, located just north of the Vovcha River which runs through the centre of the city. The advances come amid a number of reports from Ukrainian officers operating on this front that Russian forces have amassed a significant grouping of forces and have intensified assault operations in and around Vovchansk.
• KURSK-SUMY: On 22 May Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that a decision had been made to establish a ‘buffer zone’ along the international border with Ukraine. This aligns with our earlier assessment that Moscow is doubling down on its territorial demands in Ukraine and will continue attacking into Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts. In line with this order from Moscow, Russian Northern Grouping of Forces Spokesperson Yaroslav Yakimkin stated on May 25 that Russian forces are now working to establish a ‘security zone’ along the border in both Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts.
• KURSK-SUMY: While the exact definition of this ‘buffer zone’ remains unclear, it is likely to mean a buffer zone approximately 18.6 miles (30km) deep along the international border, which would place de jure Russian territory outside of Ukrainian conventional tube artillery range. However, the ambiguity of the order has led to wider calls for a much larger buffer zone. On 25 May, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev proposed that almost the entirety of Ukraine (excluding a very small slither of territory along the Polish border) should be occupied by Russia as a so-called ‘buffer zone’. Given Russia’s limited offensive capabilities, it is much more likely that the Kremlin is referring to the creation of a 30km buffer zone along the border, but the ambiguity leaves open further territorial claims in the future.
• KURSK-SUMY: Following Putin’s announcement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Russian forces are currently accumulating 50,000 troops along the Sumy border, indicating continued Russian offensive preparations. The Washington Post meanwhile reported on 27 May that Ukrainian intelligence estimates that Russia has deployed 125,000 personnel to the Sumy and Kharkiv border regions. Additionally, Ukrainian milblogger Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on 26 May that Russian forces have deployed additional reinforcements from the Oskil-Kreminna line to the Sumy direction (specifically units from the newly created Moscow and Leningrad military districts).
• KURSK-SUMY: Meanwhile, geolocated footage from 25 May indicates that Russian forces seized the remainder of Bilovody (Sumy oblast), located around 18 miles (29km) north-east of Sumy city. Various Russian sources meanwhile claimed on 28 May that their forces have made wider advances along the international border, including the seizure of Kostiantynivka (not to be confused with the city in Donetsk oblast) located to the west, but this is unconfirmed.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: In recent days, Russian forces advanced north-east of Kupiansk, where they also launched crossed border operations. Geolocated footage from 27 May shows recent Russian advances north of Kamyanka, located approximately 29 miles (47km) to the north-east of Kupiansk near the international border. Additional footage from the same day shows that Russian forces crossed the border into north-eastern Stroivka, situated around eight miles (13km) further to the north-east of Kamyanka. The operation was likely intended as a sabotage and reconnaissance mission; it remains uncertain whether Russian forces intend to hold their positions in the area.
• SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage published on 28 May indicates that Russian forces have taken Zelene Pole, a village located 9.5 miles (15km) west of Velyka Novosilka and just two miles (3km) south-east of the Dnipropetrovsk oblast border. Amid slow but steady Russian advances west of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast), Russian pressure is increasing across the southern frontline. The spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Grouping of Forces Vladyslav Voloshyn reported on May 25 that Russian forces have recently resumed assaults in the Hulyaipole direction (Zaporizhzhia oblast). However, there has been no confirmed advances towards the town.
• STRIKES: Between 24 and 26 May, Russia conducted a record series of extremely large-scale, high-intensity combined strikes against Ukraine. On 24, 25 and 26 May, Russia launched 250, 298, and 355 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), respectively; the attack on 25 May involved the largest number of missiles of all three strike packages, with 69 projectiles launched. These attacks caused damage and casualties to multiple Ukrainian regions, including the capital, Kyiv. Kyiv was heavily targeted by the attack launched on 24 May, which also included 14 ballistic missiles, along with drones. The attacks this week have also notably seen a return of cruise missiles, which had been absent from Russian combined strikes over the last month.
• STRIKES: These attacks highlight Russia’s substantial drone and missile production capacities and existing stockpiles. Quoting Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR), the Economist reported on 25 May that Russia has significantly increased its drone production. While last year it produced 300 Shahed drones per month, it is now reportedly manufacturing the same number every three days and aims to increase production to 500 UAVs per day. Russia’s shift to large-scale drone attacks forms part of a cost-effective saturation strategy which is aimed at steadily overwhelming Ukrainian air defences (for further details, please see the Strike Pattern Analysis in our Ukraine Monthly Forecast– 23 May 2025).
• STRIKES: According to the GUR, there is a realistic possibility that Russia will be able to launch 1,000 UAVs in a single attack in the foreseeable future. Ukrainian government sources, quoted by the Economist, also report that Russia possesses a stockpile of 500 ballistic missiles. We have also previously reported on Moscow’s efforts to ramp up the production of some of its cruise missile systems. As such, we assess that Russia will highly likely increase the overall frequency of large-scale drone attacks in the coming months, while maintaining its current rate of sporadic large-scale, high-intensity missile strikes, sustaining pressure on Ukraine’s air defence network.
• STRIKES: On 28 May, Belarusian State Secretary of the Security Council Alexander Volfovich stated that Russia is planning to deploy multiple Oreshnik missile systems to Belarus by the end of 2025. The Oreshnik is a nuclear capable intermediate-range ballistic missile which was first used by Russia in November 2024 against the Ukrainian city of Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk oblast). The latest development is highly likely part of Moscow’s efforts to deter Western support for Ukraine, illustrate resolve and further integrate Belarus into Russia’s military system. If such systems are indeed deployed to Belarus, they would almost certainly remain under the control of Moscow.
• STRIKES: Meanwhile, Ukraine has carried out a series of large-scale drone attack in recent days across Russia. For instance, on 28 May Russia’s MoD reported the interception of 296 UAVs, which, if corroborated, would represent the largest Ukrainian drone attack to date. Ukraine’s military sources reported that the drones successfully struck various defence production plants, including in Moscow and Ivanovo oblasts. The attack prompted Russian authorities to suspend flight operations at Moscow’s Vnukovo (VKO) and Sheremetyevo (SVO) airports, as well as Zhukovsky (ZIA) in the wider Moscow oblast. Overnight on 25-26 May, Ukrainian conducted a similar drone attack which reportedly successfully struck various defence manufacturing facilities across Russia.
• STRIKES: Despite agreeing to a large military aid package to Ukraine, Germany has still not formally approved the supply of long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. During a visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Berlin, the German government unveiled a USD 5 billion aid package for Kyiv. Under the agreement, Berlin will assist Ukraine in funding defence production. According to the German defence minister, a significant number of these systems are expected to be produced by the end of 2025 and Berlin would supply Kyiv with ammunition, small arms as well as air defence systems. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also pledged that Berlin will help Ukraine produce long-range weapons. However, the provision of Taurus missiles was not announced, despite Merz having long advocated for supplying such missiles to Kyiv.
• STRIKES: Nevertheless, Merz notably underscored that there are no longer restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to strike Russia with long-range systems. According to Merz, a decision by the UK, France, Germany and the US to withdraw restrictions was made months ago. This indicates that if Taurus was provided, Kyiv would have a wider remit to strike targets deep in the Russian rear.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• SANCTIONS: US President Donald Trump reiterated on 28 May his reluctance to impose new sanctions against Russia as he believes that this could threaten negotiations. Trump implied that it is important to know when to take a tougher stance. Ukraine and its European partners have called for additional sanctions in recent weeks to push Russia to agree to a ceasefire. However, the Trump administration has so far not taken such action, underscoring the divergence between the US and European approaches to Russia at present.
• SANCTIONS: Nevertheless, Trump’s remarks contradict reports in recent days that he is considering new punitive measures against Russia in the near term. The Wall Street Journal reported on 26 May that Trump is mulling issuing sanctions against Moscow as he grows more frustrated by continued Russian attacks against Ukraine and the lack of progress in peace talks. CNN reported similarly on 27 May, adding that the US had drafted sanctions options in recent weeks, though Trump has not yet approved them.
• SANCTIONS: While we cannot confirm the veracity of the reports, we assess that additional US sanctions against Russia remain a possibility in the coming weeks or months. Amid uncertainty of the Trump administration’s sanctions policy, it would most likely issue new punitive measures only when it believes it has exhausted efforts to try and broker peace, and that Russia is undermining peace prospects. As such, new US sanctions against Russian individuals and entities will likely remain a last resort. For further analysis on recent sanctions developments, see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 27 May 2025.
• EU: The EU plans to extend temporary protection for Ukrainians until March 2027, according to Ukraine’s ambassador to the EU Vsevolod Chentsov. Chentsov stated on 28 May that this announcement will likely come on 12-13 June, when a meeting of the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council will take place. Meanwhile, Euractiv reported on 26 May, citing an unspecified EU diplomat, that European officials are discussing ‘exit strategies’ in private. According to the outlet, a one-year extension is under consideration, possibly alongside a non-legislative statement from member states outlining plans to phase out the protection. Possible options could realistically include narrowing who would be eligible for protection, or (while unlikely) creating a new legal framework.
FORECAST
NEGOTIATIONS: On 28 May, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov proposed holding a second round of direct talks with Ukraine on 2 June in Istanbul (Turkey). Earlier on 29 May, the Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia has not yet received a response from Ukraine. The first negotiations of this kind in over three years took place on 16 May, though they failed to secure a ceasefire (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 19 May 2025). In the days following those discussions, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia would draft a ‘memorandum’ setting out its position on peace.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov claimed on 28 May that the Russian side continues to delay handing over this document to Ukraine. Umerov stated that he had sent Ukraine’s proposal to the head of Russia’s delegation at the peace talks, Vladimir Medinsky, and urged Moscow to provide their version so that Kyiv can review it before the talks. Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to present this memorandum to the Ukrainian side and provide clarifications during the proposed talks in Turkey. Nevertheless, we continue to assess that the negotiating positions of Russia and Ukraine remain far removed; this underscores the low likelihood of a significant breakthrough in the upcoming talks on 2 June.
Russia’s ‘peace’ memorandum will highly likely maintain Russia’s maximalist demands, which have remained largely unchanged throughout the full-scale invasion. It is highly unlikely that Moscow has softened its stance in this document, nor is it likely to offer any meaningful concessions to reach a ceasefire (let alone a wider peace settlement) in the short term. Reuters reported on 28 May that Russia’s conditions for ending the war include sanctions relief and a written promise from the West to halt NATO’s eastern enlargement. This would formally rule out Ukraine’s long-held aspirations for membership in the military alliance and provide Russia with an effective veto on admitting other former Soviet states; Russia also wants Ukraine to be a neutral state. Other Russian demands also reportedly include a resolution of the issue of frozen Russian sovereign assets and ‘protection’ for Russian speakers in Ukraine.
Reuters claimed that it had obtained details of Russia’s terms for ending the conflict from three unspecified Russian insiders familiar with the negotiating process. We assess that these (namely NATO expansion, Ukrainian neutrality and ‘protecting’ Russian speakers in Ukraine) highly likely address what Russia considers to be the ‘root causes’ of the conflict. One of the unnamed insiders claimed that if Putin realises he is unable to reach a peace deal on his own terms, he will seek to show Europe and Ukraine that ‘peace tomorrow will be even more painful’. This aligns with our assessment that Russia is willing to achieve its war objectives via military means in the coming years, if Moscow perceives that it cannot achieve suitable diplomatic concessions. The comments also reflect that Russia highly likely seeks to increase pressure on Ukraine to agree to already disproportionate concessions out of concern that Moscow will make additional, greater demands (including territory) in the future.
Meanwhile, recent comments from Trump may possibly indicate a slight shift in US policy towards Russia. Trump, who had previously issued rare criticism of his Russian counterpart, stated on 26 May that Putin has gone ‘absolutely crazy’ following the intensive long-range strikes in recent days. Trump also claimed that he has always said that Putin wants to take over the entirety of Ukraine and hypothesised that this is potentially proving to be right, warning of Russia’s ‘downfall’ if so. However, he did not elaborate further. Nevertheless, on 27 May, Trump warned that Putin is ‘playing with fire’. Trump also indicated on 28 May that he will know if Russia is ‘serious’ about peace in two weeks time, though it remains unclear if this is a definitive deadline for progress to be made. If progress is not made, growing frustration will increase the likelihood of the Trump administration altering its negotiating style, potentially by leveraging sanctions, ramping up military support to Ukraine(less likely) or withdrawing from the peace process entirely.
On 27 May, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for a trilateral summit with Putin and Trump, though the prospect of such a meeting remains low in the near term. The US president has expressed that he is ready for such a meeting if it is ‘necessary’, while the Kremlin has said any meeting between Putin and Zelensky would happen only after ‘concrete agreements’ had been achieved between their countries’ respective negotiators. Notably, on 23 May, Lavrov reiterated Russian narratives questioning Zelensky’s legitimacy and emphasised the need for new elections in Ukraine. Ultimately, such comments about Ukrainian legitimacy likely aim to obstruct the peace process and possibly set conditions for Moscow to renege on the terms of any possible future agreement to end the war at a point of its choosing in the future.
• Region: New Black Sea strategy will likely bolster long-term regional security, connectivity. On 28 May, the EU unveiled a new strategy to increase security in the Black Sea region, as well as to strengthen links between Europe and the South Caucasus, Central Asia and beyond. To enhance security, the strategy proposes a ‘Black Sea Maritime Security Hub’ as its flagship initiative. This hub will serve as an early warning system and monitor critical maritime infrastructure, including submarine cables and offshore installations, as well as gas and wind energy operations off the Romanian and Bulgarian coasts. The EU also seeks to address hybrid threats and the danger posed by sea mines, drifting mines and other unexploded ordnance (UXO) in the waters controlled by littoral states. However, demining will likely remain a long-term operation. A new ‘Connectivity Agenda’ linking Europe with Central Asia through the South Caucasus is another flagship initiative; it seeks to develop transport, energy and digital infrastructure links. While the strategy will likely bolster regional security and resilience in the long term, we assess that the lack of a concrete financial framework will possibly limit its impact and ability to combat Russian hybrid threats seriously in the short-to-medium term.
• Russia-Ukraine: Likelihood of breakthrough in proposed upcoming negotiations is low. On 28 May, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov proposed holding a second round of direct talks on 2 June in Istanbul (Turkey) to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. The first negotiations of this kind in over three years took place on 16 May, though they failed to secure a ceasefire (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 19 May 2025). In the days following those discussions, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia would draft a ‘memorandum’ setting out its position on peace. Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov claimed on 28 May that the Russian side continues to delay handing over this document to Ukraine. Umerov stated that he had sent Ukraine’s proposal to the head of Russia’s delegation at the peace talks, Vladimir Medinsky, and urged Moscow to provide their version so that Kyiv can review it before the talks. We continue to assess that the terms which Russia and Ukraine find acceptable remain far removed; this underscores the low likelihood of a significant breakthrough in the upcoming talks on 2 June.
May 27.
• Russia: Western co-ordination is highly likely to be necessary to raise sanctions pressure on Moscow. Reports emerged on 24 May that the EU is considering disconnecting more than 20 banks from the SWIFT international payments system as part of a series of new sanctions against Russia. Ukraine and its European allies have advocated for ramping up sanctions against Russia in recent weeks to push Moscow to agree to a ceasefire. US President Donald Trump expressed his reluctance to take such action following a call on 19 May with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. Nevertheless, Trump is reportedly mulling over the prospect of issuing new sanctions against Russia as early as this week as he grows more frustrated at the stalled peace process. However, any such restrictions are unlikely to include new banking sanctions, given these remain among the most impactful economic punitive measures that Western actors can take. However, amid unconfirmed reports in German media that co-ordination between the EU and the US on sanctions has ended, we assess that augmented intra-European co-ordination is highly likely to be necessary to pressure Moscow to engage in peace talks sincerely – which remains unlikely in the short-to-medium term, in any case. (Source: Sibylline)
29 May 25. Ukrainian Drone Barrage Grounds Moscow Flights, Hits Russian Tech Hub. A major Ukrainian drone strike late Tuesday into Wednesday forced the temporary suspension of flights at three of Moscow’s four airports: Domodedovo, Vnukovo, and Zhukovsky, according to civil aviation authorities.
The disruptions followed the Russian Defense Ministry’s report of shooting down nearly 300 Ukrainian drones overnight across 12 regions, including Moscow.
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said at least 33 drones were downed as they approached the capital, while authorities in the surrounding Moscow region reported intercepting 42 drones, with damage to three homes.
According to Russian media, among the targets were the city of Zelenograd, known as Russia’s “Silicon Valley.”
Ukrainian officials said they aimed for the ELMA Technopark and the Dubna Machine-Building Plant, which builds electronics, lasers, and software. Andriy Kovalenko, who leads Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, said ELMA is key to Russia’s push to replace Western-made parts.
Russian authorities said there were “no serious damages or injuries as a result of enemy drones being repelled in Zelenograd,” noting that emergency services had immediately responded to the scene.
Meanwhile, Serhii Bratchuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Defense Army’s Southern Division, remarked the recent surge in flight disruptions in Moscow reflects a strategic shift in Ukraine’s drone campaign aimed at weakening Russia.
“Moscow is the biggest aviation hub in the Russian Federation — flights go everywhere, not only across Russia, but worldwide,” he told the Kyiv Independent. “This is about the potential disintegration of Russian regions and the weakening of internal control.”
The recent flight disruptions came after three of Moscow’s four airports temporarily suspended operations last Wednesday due to a Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian capital. Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports stopped all inbound and outbound flights, while Sheremetyevo suspended arrivals but permitted some departures on a case-by-case basis.
Over the past week, Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed to have shot down more than 2,300 Ukrainian drones. On Monday, Ukraine reported the largest Russian aerial assault in recent days, involving 355 attack drones. The attack caused injuries and damage to civilian infrastructure, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
28 May 25. Russia masses over 50,000 troops for offensive on northeastern Ukraine, Zelenskiy says. Russia has massed more than 50,000 troops, including some of its best forces, near Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region, but Kyiv has taken steps to prevent them from conducting a large-scale offensive, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.
The build-up comes as Russia appears to be gearing up for a summer offensive in Ukraine while Kyiv waits for Moscow to present a memorandum laying out its conditions to proceed with ceasefire talks.
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Sumy lies across the border from Russia’s Kursk region where Ukraine previously seized and held a pocket of land for months, before being almost fully pushed out last month, although it says it still holds some small areas there.
“Their largest, strongest forces are currently on the Kursk front,” Zelenskiy told reporters on Tuesday. “To push our troops out of the Kursk region and to prepare offensive actions against the Sumy region.”
Putin has said he wants a “buffer zone” along Russia’s border with Ukraine. Zelenskiy said he believed Russia wants to carve out an area of Ukrainian territory about 10 km (6 miles) deep. (Source: Reuters)
28 May 25. Putin, for Ukraine peace, wants a pledge to halt NATO enlargement, sources say
• Summary
• Putin wants written pledge to halt NATO expansion eastwards, sources say
• Russia also seeks lifting of sanctions and protection for Russian speakers in Ukraine
• Ukraine has insisted on NATO membership aspirations despite Russian demands
President Vladimir Putin’s conditions for ending the war in Ukraine include a demand that Western leaders pledge in writing to stop enlarging NATO eastwards and lift a chunk of sanctions on Russia, according to three Russian sources with knowledge of the negotiations.
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he wants to end the deadliest European conflict since World War Two and has shown increasing frustration with Putin in recent days, warning on Tuesday the Russian leader was “playing with fire” by refusing to engage in ceasefire talks with Kyiv as his forces made gains on the battlefield. (Source: Reuters)
23 May 25. Cuashub.com said today that Ukraine pioneers anti-drone self-defence pistol. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence has officially codified and approved a Ukrainian-produced anti-drone pistol for operational use by the Armed Forces, adding to the arsenal of electronic warfare capabilities Ukraine deploys to counter aerial threats on the battlefield.
According to the Main Directorate for Support of the Life Cycle of Weapons and Military Equipment, the newly approved device is categorized as an individual electronic defence system, designed to jam control and video signals of hostile drones.
“The anti-drone pistol is an individual electronic defence device. It is a means of establishing electromagnetic interference; it blocks the control and video channels of enemy drones,” the Ministry of Defence said in an official statement.
The pistol, developed by a Ukrainian manufacturer, is described as compact, lightweight (just over one kilogram) and constructed in a monolithic form factor for ease of use in the field.
It is intended as a personal electronic countermeasure for soldiers, providing a quick-response option against enemy drones operating in close proximity, a scenario that has become routine on Ukraine’s front lines.
The approval of the anti-drone pistol follows a series of codifications by the Ministry of Defence in recent weeks as Ukraine continues to accelerate the integration of domestically developed countermeasures into active military service.
In addition to the pistol, Ukraine’s domestic defense industry continues to innovate, with Ukrainian company Kvertus recently introducing its next-generation smart electronic warfare tool, the LTEJ Mirage. The Mirage system is reportedly capable of jamming signals across any frequency.
These innovations are being fielded against a backdrop of intensifying drone warfare, with Russian drone strikes reaching record numbers in recent weeks.
Development of tools like the anti-drone pistol suggests a tactical priority to give individual soldiers the means to conduct self-defense against the aerial threat, without requiring centralized counter-UAS systems.
https://cuashub.com/en/content/ukraine-pioneers-anti-drone-self-defence-pistol/(Source: https://cuashub.com/)
27 May 25. Germany’s chancellor Friedrich Merz has backed Ukrainian military strikes deep into Russian territory, following his earlier commitment to supply Kyiv with German long-range missiles. (Source: FT.com)
27 May 25. Putin’s Helicopter Supposedly Survives Ukrainian Drone Attack. Vladimir Putin’s helicopter was forced to shoot down drones while he was aboard, a Moscow official said on Sunday. The Russian president’s aircraft was involved in an “air defence battle” after an “unprecedented Ukrainian drone assault”, Maj Gen Yuri Dashkin, an air defence commander, told state television.
The incident was said to have happened last week when the Russian leader was on a tour of Kursk, part of which Ukraine previously occupied.
“During the period when the president was working in the Kursk region, the enemy launched an unprecedented attack with unmanned aerial vehicles,”
Maj Gen Dashkin said in an interview with Rossiya-24 television.
He added: “We simultaneously conducted an air defence battle and ensured the safety of the presidential helicopter’s flight in the air.”
No official statements from the Kremlin, Russian Ministry of Defense, or Ukrainian authorities have confirmed the report, leaving its authenticity in question. The lack of detailed evidence and the reliance on unverified sources underscore the challenges of navigating information in a war marked by competing narratives. The reported event unfolded in Kursk, a Russian region bordering Ukraine that has been a hotspot of military activity since the conflict began in February 2022. The Kremlin confirmed Putin visited Kursk on May 20, 2025, his first trip to the region since Russian forces, with support from North Korean troops, claimed to have expelled Ukrainian forces from the area in late April.
During the visit, Putin met with interim governor Alexander Khinshtein and inspected the Kursk-II nuclear power plant under construction, according to Russian state media. The region has faced repeated Ukrainian drone strikes and a significant ground incursion by Ukrainian forces in August 2024, which briefly seized parts of Kursk before Russian counteroffensives regained control.
Sprinter Observer’s post, amplified by other X users, claimed the helicopter was caught in the “epicenter” of a drone attack, a term suggesting either intense defensive action or proximity to the president’s aircraft.
Yuri Dashkin, identified as an air defense commander, reportedly stated that Russian forces neutralized the threat, ensuring Putin’s safety. However, no public record verifies Dashkin’s role, and the lack of specifics—such as the number of drones, their type, or the precise location—raises questions about the claim’s credibility.
Other X posts, including one from @serge_063, hinted at internal leaks or confusion, with cryptic remarks about “looking for the snitch,” while @qwest__treated the report with apparent skepticism, adding laughing emojis. Ukrainian officials, who often claim responsibility for high-profile strikes, have remained silent, and Russian state media has not addressed the incident, a departure from its usual practice of highlighting Ukrainian aggression.
This silence, combined with the absence of visual evidence like drone wreckage or damaged infrastructure, fuels doubts about whether the incident occurred as described or was exaggerated for effect.
The Mi-17 helicopter, commonly used for VIP transport, is equipped with flare dispensers and radar warning receivers, enhancing its survivability in contested airspace. The helicopter itself, likely a Mil Mi-17, is a workhorse of Russian VIP and military transport. An evolution of the Soviet-era Mi-8, the Mi-17 measures 82 feet in length and can carry up to 30 passengers or 4 tons of cargo.
Powered by two Klimov VK-2500 turboshaft engines, it achieves a cruising speed of 150 miles per hour and a range of 360 miles. Its defensive suite includes infrared jammers, flare dispensers, and armored plating around critical components, designed to counter heat-seeking missiles and small-arms fire.
Its robust design and defensive systems would make it a challenging target for drones, particularly if escorted by air defense units, as would be standard for a presidential flight. However, a swarm of FPV drones, especially if launched unexpectedly, could exploit gaps in radar coverage or overwhelm escorts with sheer numbers.
The lack of official confirmation raises the possibility that the incident was exaggerated or fabricated as part of the information war. Russia has used unverified claims to portray Ukraine as reckless, while Kyiv has accused Moscow of staging incidents to justify escalation.
The timing of the report, days after Ukraine’s drone strikes on Moscow and a power substation in Kursk, suggests it could be an attempt to amplify Russian resilience or deflect attention from Ukraine’s battlefield gains. (Source: UAS VISION/yahoo!news; Bulgarian Military)
28 May 25. Germany and Ukraine set up “joint projects” to produce long-range weapons able to strike military targets in Russia and Russian-controlled territory of Ukraine. (Source: FT.com)
27 May 25. Belarus SKY-TRUCK Cargo Drone and Julietta Reconnaissance Drone at MILEX-2025. A helicopter-type cargo drone called SKY-TRUCK and an aircraft-type reconnaissance drone called Julietta were presented in Minsk. The drones were demonstrated at the MILEX-2025 international exhibition of weapons and military equipment.
SKY-TRUCK was presented by UAVHELI, a company specializing in the creation of unmanned helicopter systems. The drone is primarily designed for transporting cargo in automatic or remote-controlled mode.
The system can be used in hard-to-reach areas where the use of traditional modes of transport is difficult, such as in mountainous terrain, on islands, in coastal regions, or in harsh climates.
It can also be used in search and rescue operations, to provide logistics in remote settlements, and to perform auxiliary tasks for the military and law enforcement agencies.
SKY-TRUCK is equipped with a modular cargo container called AIR BOX. It has a payload capacity of up to 200 kilograms and a maximum take-off weight of 500 kilograms. The drone can fly up to 350 km on a single charge, reaching an altitude of up to 3,000 meters. Its autonomous flight time is up to six hours. The maximum speed is 150 km/h.
Julietta
At the MILEX-2025 exhibition, Belarusian developers presented a new unmanned aerial vehicle complex called Julietta. It is designed to search for and detect targets, as well as to accurately guide weapons to them.
The Julietta’s cruising speed is 120 km/h, and its maximum flight altitude is 4.5 km. The maximum flight duration is 10 hours, and the maximum payload is 50 kg.
“This is a tiltrotor aircraft that can take off and land vertically and then switch to flight mode, like an aircraft UAV, thanks to its rear propeller,” the developers explained. (Source: UAS VISION/MILITARNYI)
27 May 25. Ukraine’s Engineers Say Russia’s Shahed Drones Use AI and Telegram Bots to Steer Toward Targets. Ukrainian engineers have found evidence that Russia is using Telegram to control drones in real time, The Economist reported on Sunday, citing Ukrainian engineers.
According to the report, the discovery came after Ukraine recovered a downed Shahed drone, known in Russia as “Geran,” which contained a handwritten note allegedly left by a Russian engineer. The note detailed how the drone employs Telegram messaging bots to transmit live flight data and video feeds, enhancing operator control.
These upgraded Shahed drones reportedly rely on artificial intelligence and mobile networks for navigation instead of GPS, making them more resistant to signal jamming.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, dismissed the claim about Telegram-controlled drones but confirmed some Shahed drones have been remotely operated since last year: “They had cameras installed and were controlled remotely. No sensation – they are being shot down,” he wrote on Telegram.
Russia is escalating its aerial campaign against Ukraine, deploying increasingly advanced drones alongside a growing arsenal of ballistic missiles. Ukrainian aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap told The Economist that Russia is expected to significantly ramp up both drone production and technological capabilities in the coming days.
On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Moscow had carried out its largest aerial and drone assault on Ukraine to date. The overnight attack included the launch of nine Kh-101 cruise missiles from Tu-95MS bombers, along with a record 355 Shahed-type attack drones and decoys, according to Zelenskyy.
The attack marked the third consecutive day of Russia’s large-scale aerial and drone assaults on Ukraine, coinciding with the largest prisoner exchange between the two countries. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
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