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Military And Security Developments
Apr 11.
- Ukraine: Russian-nexus group poses elevated security, espionage risks to Western military entities. On 10 April, the cyber security company Symantec reported that the Russia-nexus group ‘Gamaredon’ has been targeting a military mission of an unnamed Western country in Ukraine in a cyber espionage operation since at least February. The group reportedly used external removable devices to infiltrate the targeted system and to execute highly obfuscated scripts. The scripts deployed a new version of the ‘GammaSteel’ information-stealing malware, enabling Gamaredon to exfiltrate sensitive data from compromised systems. The group used additional scripts to gather information about the system’s security protections and prolong detection evasion. It also implemented several other new, advanced obfuscation mechanisms, showcasing the group’s stealth. Additionally, this operation marks Gamaredon’s first adoption of PowerShell-based tools, underscoring the development of the group’s detection evasion techniques and other cyber capabilities. As such, we assess that this points to elevated security and espionage risks to Ukraine-based Western military entities as the war in Ukraine persists.
- Russia: Moscow will continue to demand sanctions relief in exchange for peace progress. Earlier on 11 April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the Russian authorities had asked the US to suspend sanctions against the prominent Russian airline Aeroflot during talks held in Saudi Arabia. Lavrov claimed that Washington DC had agreed in principle but had not yet taken concrete steps to lift the restrictive measures. According to the Russian official, Moscow reiterated this demand during follow-up talks in Turkey. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, escalating sanctions have made Russia one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world. Western measures have also massively targeted the civilian aviation sector, with the EU, US and UK having closed their airspace to Russian carriers. The demand to lift sanctions on Aeroflot likely reflects Russia’s broader negotiation strategy, which involves linking progress in peace talks to the easing of its economic isolation via the relaxation of the current sanctions regime. We assess that Russia is highly likely to continue pushing for sanctions relief as a condition in future negotiations, which will likely remain an obstacle to meaningful progress in peace talks in the short to medium term.
Apr 10.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
• OFFENSIVES: Russian attacks are beginning to step up in intensity right across the frontline, with various Ukrainian sources reporting higher number of assaults in combination with growing glide bomb attacks
• KURSK-SUMY: The Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief has stated that Russian forces have already begun their spring offensive against the Sumy and Kharkiv regions
• CHINA: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has reported that at least 155 Chinese citizens are fighting for Russia in Ukraine, though this is almost certainly without the approval of Beijing
• FORECAST: On 10 April, Russian and US delegations held another round of technical negotiations in Istanbul (Turkey), amid growing frustration in the US over Russia’s likely delaying tactics during peace talks
• OFFENSIVES: Russian attacks are beginning to step up in intensity right across the frontline, with various Ukrainian sources reporting higher number of assaults in combination with growing glide bomb attacks. At present, the most intense sectors of the frontline remain Pokrovsk, Toretsk and along the Kursk-Sumy axis, but Russian forces are also intensifying efforts at various other points, and are making slow gains.
• OFFENSIVES: Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi notably estimated on 9 April that Russian forces have deployed 623,000 service personnel in Ukraine, and that Russia is increasing the number of personnel by contracting 8,000-9,000 new troops per month. Syrskyi estimated that Russia had deployed 603,000 troops on 1 January 2025, marking an increase of 20,000 personnel in just a few months. Nevertheless, Syrskyi also claimed that Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russian ammunition stockpiles have reduced Russian artillery fire rate by almost half. According to Syrskyi, Russian forces had previously fired around 40,000 rounds of artillery ammunition every day, but this had reduced to 23,000 per day, though he acknowledged that it has now increased slightly to 27,000-28,000 rounds per day currently. While the preliminary phase of the spring offensive is likely underway, it remains unclear if Russian forces will be able to resume their higher rate of fire in the coming months.
• BAKHMUT: Russian forces are making steady advances in and around the highly contested town of Toretsk. Geolocated footage from 7, 8 and 9 April indicate advances in the north-western and south-western sectors of the town. In particular, footage from 9 April indicates that Russian forces have once again successfully pushed the Ukrainians out of the south-western sector of the town, and are advancing to their previously held positions in the nearby satellite town of Shcherbynivka. Ukrainian forces have waged various successful spoiling operations in and around Toretsk in recent months, with counter-attacks blunting Russia’s attempts to gain control of the town. However, pressure appears to be intensifying on the defending Ukrainians, and it remains unclear if further counter-attacks will prove as successful.
• BAKHMUT: A commander of a Ukrainian drone company reported on 7 April that Russian forces have stepped up their rate of guided glide bomb attacks, and have doubled the number of assaults compared to the previous week. This aligns with our overall assessment in recent weeks that Russian forces will steadily intensify offensive operations at various points along the frontline as the preamble to their spring offensive – which may already be underway in practice. The use of guided glide bombs is notably, given how pivotal such capabilities proved in facilitating Russian advances during their successful Autumn offensive in 2024. The Ukrainian commander nevertheless noted that guide bomb attacks are not targeting buildings in which both Russian and Ukrainian forces are operating – such is the close-quarters nature of the fighting in much of Toretsk.
• DONETSK: In the Pokrovsk sector, Russian forces continued to advance in the Pokrovsk sector, amid localised Ukrainian counter-attacks. Geolocated footage from 9 April shows recent Russian advances in southern Tarasivka and south of Bohdanivka, settlements located to the north-east and south-west of Pokrovsk, respectively. Ukrainian forces made confirmed gains in north-eastern Kotlyne, located south-west of Pokrovsk. A Ukrainian military source operating in the sector reported that Russian forces are exploiting reduced visibility, which reduces the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones, to intensify their attacks. Russian operations in the south-west of Pokrovsk continue to experience difficulties due to Ukraine’s localised counter-attacks and drone operations in the sector.
• KHARKIV: Nothing significant to report
• KURSK-SUMY: On 9 April, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russian forces have already begun their spring offensive against the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. The rate of Russian attacks has increased in recent weeks, with more intense assaults along the border region in recent days. Russian forces have continued to make slow advances inside Kursk oblast, with Ukrainian forces pushed ever closer to the international border along a slither of land south-west of Sudzha. Geolocated footage published on 7 April indicates Russian advances north-west of Guyevo, located around six miles (10km) to the south-west of Sudzha.
• KURSK-SUMY: Meanwhile, Russian forces are continuing to launch attacks in northern Sumy oblast. Russian state news outlet TASS reported earlier on 10 April that Ukrainian forces attempted a counter-attack in Basivka, but the attack was allegedly stopped. We cannot confirm this. Nevertheless, the region remains highly dynamic amid both Russian attacks and Ukrainian counter-attacks. For example, geolocated footage published on 8 April indicated that Russian forces launched a raid into northern Loknya on 6 April, but they are unlikely to have established permanent positions and likely withdrew.
• KURSK-SUMY: Ukrainian military commentator Kostyantyn Mashovets estimated on 9 April that Russia has around 62,000-65,000 troops and border guards operating in the Kursk region. Syrskyi had previously estimated in January 2025 that 67,000 Russian troops, in addition to 11,000 North Koreans, were operating in Kursk oblast. As such, if Mashovet’s estimate is accurate, this would indicate that Russian forces are not concentrating significant forces in Kursk to launch a major offensive into Sumy oblast, and may in fact be redirecting forces to other parts of the frontline, following the success of the Kursk counter-offensive. While Russia may realistically prioritise other offensives inside Ukraine, attacks along the Kursk-Sumy border are likely to remain intense given Russia’s likely aim of establishing a buffer zone along the international border. In any case, Russian forces are unlikely in a position to seriously threaten Sumy city without a significant reinforcement of forces currently operating out of Kursk.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Over the past few days, Russian forces have continued their advance along the Oskil-Kreminna line, particularly in the Kupiansk area and further south in the Lyman sector. Geolocated footage from 8 April shows recent Russian gains in eastern Kamyanka, located northeast of Kupiansk near the international border. Additional footage from 9 April indicates limited Russian advances north of Lyman, in a forested area east of the settlement of Zelena Dolyna. On 8 April, the spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the sector noted that the operational situation in the Lyman area has significantly deteriorated over the past month for Ukrainian forces, citing Russia’s numerical advantage, with a reported 10-to-1 ratio over Ukrainian troops.
• SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage from 8 April has indicated that Russian forces are continuing to advance slowly to the north-west of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast), near the border with Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Specifically, Russian forces have advanced to the north-west of Burlatske, which in turn is located to the north-west of Velyka Novosilka. Further to the south-west along the Zaporizhzhia frontline, geolocated footage from 8 and 9 April confirmed Russian advances north-west of Robotyne.
• STRIKES: In recent days, Russia has continued to launch drone attacks of varying intensities. The drone strike on April 8 was accompanied by the launch of an Iskander-M ballistic missile. According to Ukrainian officials, the missile hit a building at a defunct recreation centre in the village of Vysoky in Kharkiv oblast. Elsewhere, Russian long-range attacks have continued to inflict significant damage on various urban centres in Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv and Mykolaiv (Mykolaiv oblast).
• STRIKES: Meanwhile, Ukraine has also maintained its long-range drone campaign, which has successfully targeted multiple Russian military capabilities. On 9 April, Russia claimed to have thwarted a large-scale Ukrainian attack involving 158 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over Russian territory and occupied Crimea. Likely targets included the military airfield in Mozdok, located in Russia’s Republic of North Ossetia. This facility is utilised by Russian forces to deploy Tupolev strategic bombers and MiG-31K fighter bombers, which typically conduct missile strikes against Ukraine. Ukrainian drones reportedly targeted an ammunition depot in Russia’s Tver oblast.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• PEACEKEEPING: Ukraine’s key allies met on 10 April to continue working out the details of a possible peacekeeping mission in the event of a peace deal with Russia. Attendees include Australia, Canada and European countries, with France and the UK leading the meeting at the NATO headquarters in the Belgian capital Brussels. On 4 April, Zelensky stated that the coalition is discussing the presence of foreign troops on land, in the air and at sea, as well as air defence and other strategic issues. Zelensky stated that he expects to get clarity within a month on the peacekeeping mission, though the finer details will likely take longer to hash out given the US’ reluctance to commit fully to the peacekeeping mission. For further analysis, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 3 March 2025.
• CHINA: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on 9 April that at least 155 Chinese citizens are fighting for Russia in Ukraine. According to Zelensky, Russia is recruiting Chinese citizens on social media before they undergo training in Moscow and are sent to the battlefield; he claimed that they receive migration documents and payment. The comments come shortly after Zelensky confirmed on 8 April that Ukrainian forces had captured two Chinese citizens while fighting in the east of the country. Ultimately, it is almost certain that these individuals were fighting in a private capacity rather than Beijing having provided manpower to Russia as North Korea has.
• CHINA: While we cannot confirm this, it marks the first official allegations that Chinese citizens are fighting on Russia’s side in Ukraine. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on 9 April that Beijing is verifying the situation with Kyiv. Lin added that the Chinese government has always requested that its citizens stay away from areas of armed conflict and avoid getting involved in hostilities. Zelensky claimed that ‘official Beijing’ knows about Russian efforts to recruit Chinese citizens, though the extent to which remains unclear. Even if the Chinese government was aware, this does not necessarily imply that Beijing approves of its citizens fighting in Ukraine or is facilitating it – many other governments around the world have seen their citizens fight in the war, despite efforts to deter their recruitment by Russia.
• CHINA: China has consistently proclaimed its neutrality in the conflict and at times sought to act as a potential peace broker. Nevertheless, the (unconfirmed) presence of Chinese citizens in Ukraine fighting for Russia will highly likely further fuel doubts about Beijing’s position among Ukraine’s Western allies. However, even if their presence is confirmed, it is unlikely to result in Western sanctions against China given it will likely be extremely difficult (if not impossible) to confirm any state involvement – which is almost certainly not the case anyway.
• AID: A division of the US military announced on 7 April that it was redeploying its equipment and personnel from a key Polish logistics hub for Ukraine. The US Army Europe and Africa said the repositioning of assets from Rzeszów–Jasionka Airport (RZE, Subcarpathian voivodeship) to other sites in Poland followed months of assessment and planning. Rzeszów–Jasionka has emerged as the most important logistical hub that facilitates the transfer of Western military aid across the border into Ukraine. The US military disclosed that Poland and NATO would nevertheless continue to facilitate military aid to Ukraine via this hub, meaning that the flow of security assistance is unlikely to be adversely impacted in the coming weeks and months. It does, however, reflect the US’ diminishing role in leading or facilitating military aid to Ukraine.
• AID: Reports emerged on 8 April that the US Department of Defense (DoD) is considering withdrawing as many as 10,000 troops from Eastern Europe. According to unspecified US and European officials, the units under consideration comprise part of the 20,000 personnel the former Biden administration deployed to bolster the security of countries bordering Ukraine after the full-scale invasion. This namely concerns Poland and Romania. While we cannot confirm the reports, if true, European allies would highly likely perceive such a move as further evidence of diminished US commitment to Europe’s eastern flank. Meanwhile, there is a realistic possibility that a scaled back US presence will impact NATO deterrence and encourage Russia to intensify sabotage and grey zone activity across the European continent.
FORECAST
TALKS: On 10 April, Russian and US delegations held another round of negotiations in Istanbul (Turkey). Prior to the talks, Russian-state media reported that the consultations, which concern the work of their respective embassies, would be held in a closed format and were expected to last ‘several hours’. The talks come amid wider efforts by the US Trump administration to engage with Russia on ending the war.
The Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov disclosed earlier on 10 April that the two sides would not be discussing the war in Ukraine. According to him, the meeting concerns normalising diplomatic relations, though US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated on 9 April that the agenda was solely embassy operations and not normalising bilateral ties overall – indicating the talks will be largely technical, rather than on policy. The latest contact comes amid growing frustration from US President Donald Trump and his administration that Russia is seeking to stall efforts to secure a broader ceasefire and end to the war (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 7 April 2025). This may possibly explain the timing of a prisoner swap earlier on 10 April in the UAE between Russia and the US. Ultimately, the gesture likely aims to build confidence and, from Moscow’s perspective, to show that it is willing to co-operate with the US to avoid alienating the Trump administration amid Moscow’s refusal so far to agree to a ceasefire.
Meanwhile, on 11 April, Ukraine will begin technical consultations with the US on the minerals agreement. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna offered limited details about the upcoming talks in Washington DC. However, she insisted that Kyiv cannot agree to terms of the deal if they undermine its existing obligations, including with the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have previously assessed that terms of the agreement could realistically counter the EU’s competition laws, with Kyiv concerned that this could in turn jeopardise its path to becoming a member of the bloc.
We assess that Ukraine will likely seek to delay signing the agreement in the coming days in an attempt to extract better terms for itself. President Zelensky stated on 9 April that Ukraine is open to signing a minerals deal with the US, but on the condition it ensures equal partnership and respects Ukrainian sovereignty. According to him, Ukraine is ready to offer its land and resources, though the US should contribute its technologies and capital in return. Despite Zelensky’s desire to make the deal more favourable to Ukraine, Kyiv’s position is highly likely weakened following the collapse of the original deal in late February. As such, this will limit Ukraine’s room for manoeuvre, with US perceptions that Ukraine is attempting to delay the signing of the deal increasing the risk of US retaliation (including possible additional tariffs and/or suspension of security assistance). For further analysis on the minerals deal.
Apr 09.
• Russia: Reduced revenue is unlikely to affect ability to pursue war in short-to-medium term. On 8 April, Russia’s Central Bank (CBR) warned that decreasing oil prices will threaten the country’s public finances. Similar concerns were expressed on 7 April by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, who stated that the authorities are closely monitoring the situation. Global oil prices have steadily declined following the US’ imposition of wide-ranging tariffs last week. Russia’s Urals-grade oil fell to USD 52.76 per barrel on 4 April, significantly lower than the forecasted price of USD 70 that had been budgeted by the Russian government earlier this year. Meanwhile, OPEC+ countries recently agreed to increase oil output in May, which is likely to sustain the downward trend in global oil prices. Persistently low oil prices are highly likely to strain Russian public finances, which heavily rely on oil and gas revenues (and which accounted for nearly 30% of state income in January-February). Nonetheless, the current deterioration of Russia’s economy is unlikely to affect the Kremlin’s ability to wage war against Ukraine significantly. We assess that Russia likely retains sufficient financial liquidity to support its war effort in the short-to-medium term.
Apr 07.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
• STRIKES: In recent days, Russia has launched high-intensity combined missile and drone strikes, inflicting severe damage and casualties across Ukraine, including in the capital Kyiv
• REFUGEES: The EU reportedly has no plans to extend the legal status of over 4.3 m Ukrainian refugees inside the bloc once the war has ended, sustaining elevated policy risks for refugees if peace talks proceed
• DEMOBILISATION: Ukraine’s MoD has prepared a draft law that would facilitate the demobilisation of Ukrainian service personnel in the coming years (and which the General Staff rejects)
• FORECAST: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the US will consider additional sanctions against Russia and reconsider its support for Ukraine if Moscow proves to be ‘unserious’ about negotiations
• BAKHMUT: Russian forces have continued to make marginal territorial gains in the direction of Toretsk (Donetsk oblast, Ukraine) in recent days. Geolocated footage posted on 3 and 5 April indicates that Russian forces have advanced in northern Toretsk, south-western Toretsk and to the north of Druzhba, which is located to the north of Toretsk. Ukrainian sources indicate Russian forces continue to attack in small assault groups rather than in mechanised assaults using tanks. A Ukrainian military observer, Kostyantyn Mashovets, stated earlier on 7 April that Russian forces are currently only achieving success in north-western Toretsk and Zabalka district, where they have been attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces. Further north along the Bakhmut axis, there have been limited territorial gains over the past week. However, geolocated footage posted on 3 April indicates that Russian forces likely advanced slightly in southern Chasiv Yar.
• DONETSK: In recent days, Russian forces have continued to make progress in the Pokrovsk sector. Geolocated footage from 6 April shows recent advances in north-eastern Udachne, located to the south-west of Pokrovsk. Footage from 5 April shows that Russian forces recently captured the settlement of Solone, also located to the south-west of Pokrovsk. Russian forces also made confirmed advances in northern Shevchenko, which is situated in the same area.
• DONETSK: Further south, Russian advances are continuing, though at a slower pace (likely due to Ukrainian counter-attacks). Geolocated footage from 6 April shows Russian forces progressing to the north of Andriivka, located to the west of Kurakhove. However, Lieutenant General Serhii Naiev, the commander of a tactical group operating on the frontline in Donetsk, reported that Ukrainian forces succeeded in halting the Russian advance along the Andriivka-Oleksiivka front last week. Oleksiivka is located to the west of Andriivka and Kurakhove. Russian efforts in this sector are likely aimed at pushing to the west of Kurakhove and reaching the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk oblast (Ukraine).
• KHARKIV: Nothing significant to report
• KURSK-SUMY: Russian forces have advanced in Sumy oblast (Ukraine) as part of wider efforts to force a withdrawal of the remaining Ukrainian forces in Kursk oblast (Russia). On 6 April, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that its forces had taken the village of Basivka, which is located around 3.5 miles (6km) south of the international border inside Sumy. While Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service has denied this claim, geolocated footage published on 6 April confirms that the vast majority of the settlement is now under Russian control. It remains unclear if Russian forces have pushed the Ukrainians out entirely, or if the southern sector of the village remains contested. Nevertheless, following the Russian MoD’s announcement, other non-official Russian sources claimed on 7 April that their forces have now penetrated almost six miles (10km) into Sumy, and that they are advancing south towards the larger settlements of Loknia and Yunakivka, both of which sit along or near the H07 highway.
• KURSK-SUMY: Geolocated footage also indicates that Russian forces have advanced in northern and north-eastern Guyevo, which is located to the south of Sudzha in Kursk itself.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: In the past few days, Russian forces have made incremental gains along the Oskil-Kreminna line, with operations intensifying in the Lyman sector. Geolocated footage from 4 and 5 April shows recent Russian advances to the south of Zapadne, located to the north of Kupiansk, as well as in southern Kamyanka (which is located to the north-east of Kupiansk near the international border). Further south, as of 5 April, Russian troops advanced to the west of Makiivka, located to the south-east of Borova. According to a report by the Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState on 7 April, Russian forces are maintaining significant pressure to the north of Lyman and south-east of Borova, particularly around the settlements of Katerynivka, Nevske, Novomykhailivka and Novy. DeepState also noted that Russian troops retain a military advantage in the area, which has translated into a series of tactical successes.
• SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
• STRIKES: In addition to conducting typical large-scale drone attacks, Russia launched a high-intensity combined missile and drone strike on 6 April against Ukraine, inflicting severe damage and casualties across the country. The attack involved nine Kh-101/Kh-55SM cruise missiles, eight sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles, six Iskandr-M ballistic missiles and 109 drones (Shahed and decoy types). Ukrainian forces intercepted six Kh-101/Kh-55SM cruise missiles, six Kalibr missiles, one ballistic missile and 40 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs); 53 UAVs were reported lost, likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) measures. The attack targeted Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Sumy oblasts. Residential and civilian infrastructure was reportedly hit in the capital Kyiv, whereas Kyiv oblast more widely was struck by five Iskandr-M ballistic missiles. Early on 7 April, Russian ballistic missiles also hit Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk), causing severe casualties.
• STRIKES: The 6 April attack featured Kalibr cruise missiles, which Russian vessels launched from the Black Sea. Following the attack, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the reason Moscow has not agreed to a Black Sea ceasefire is because it seeks to maintain its ability to strike Ukraine from this waterbody. Projectiles from the 6 April attack were launched from the Black Sea, as well as Russia and occupied Crimea. Russia’s ability to launch from various locations significantly complicates Ukraine’s interception efforts. These developments clearly underscore Moscow’s continued efforts to experiment with innovative strike tactics to apply pressure on Ukraine’s air defence network.
• STRIKES: Moscow’s continued efforts to source non-Western components for its projectiles have allowed Russia to avoid supply bottlenecks caused by Western export restrictions, thereby ensuring a steady production of various armaments. On 7 April, Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) reported that Russia has nearly eliminated its reliance on US-made components for EW systems that protect several projectile types, including Shahed drones. These components have reportedly been replaced by Chinese-manufactured alternatives. This will likely allow Russia to expand production further in the coming months.
• STRIKES: President Zelensky is continuing to urge Western partners to provide Ukraine with critical air defence systems and interceptors. On 6 April, Zelensky reportedly instructed Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov to draft proposals for Western partners to produce air defence systems and missiles physically inside Ukraine. While Western countries, particularly the US, have developed joint programmes focused on drones, we assess they are unlikely to agree to the in-country development of full-scale production platforms for air defence systems. This is likely due to concerns over Russian industrial espionage and the security of production assets amid ongoing hostilities.
• STRIKES: Meanwhile, on 5 April, Ukraine reportedly targeted Russia’s only plant that manufactures fibre optic cables (which are essential for Russian fibre optic drones). This facility is situated in Saransk (Republic of Mordovia, Russia). The Russian authorities reported that they intercepted three drones over the Republic of Mordovia, and that one drone struck an unspecified enterprise therein. Fibre optic drones are an increasingly important part of the modern battlefield, as their vulnerability to EW interference is significantly reduced. Components of fibre optic wire are becoming cheaper and more available as innovation on the Ukrainian battlefield continues at pace; Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on 5 April that fibre optic UAVs with a range of over 12 miles (20km) are now operating at the front, underscoring Ukraine’s continued innovation in this area. The extent of the damage caused at the Saransk fibre optic plant remains unclear, though Russia will likely attempt to decentralise production of fibre optic cable given its growing importance to maintain tactical parity with Ukrainian forces on (and over) the frontline.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• REFUGEES: On 7 April, Euractiv reported that there is no plan at the EU level to determine the legal status of over 4.3 m Ukrainian refugees inside the bloc once the war has ended. At present, the EU’s Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) grants Ukrainian refugees the right to live in, work in and access services across the bloc, though this is only temporary and must be extended every year. EU member states agreed to extend the TPD until March 2026. However, if the war ends (or an ambiguous ceasefire takes hold), it remains unclear when legal protections for Ukrainians would cease. At present, and according to Eurostat, the countries with the highest number of Ukrainian refugees are (in order) Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, Spain, Romania and Slovakia. However, the situation is further complicated by the growing number of Ukrainian refugees who have indicated they do not plan to return home. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) maintains that only 65% of Ukrainians planned to return in 2024, dropping from 77% in 2023.
• REFUGEES: The suspension of temporary protection for Ukrainians would require the agreement of all EU member states; however, individual governments continue to interpret the TPD in different ways, which has resulted in an uneven enforcement of the directive. The European Council is reportedly planning to address the issue at the new Home Affairs Council in June. However, given the historic issues around agreeing on migration issues at the EU level, individual states are likely to proceed with their own approach in the meantime. As such, policy risks will remain elevated for Ukrainians living across Europe if ceasefire or peace negotiations make progress over the coming 12 months.
• DEMOBILISATION: Ukraine’s MoD has prepared a draft law that would facilitate the demobilisation of potentially over 100,000 Ukrainian service personnel in the coming years. The draft law, first reported on 7 April, seeks to answer calls by Ukrainian service personnel (and their families) who want to know when they will be demobilised; various Ukrainian lawmakers believe this will also encourage new recruits – given they will have a clearer idea of their length of service. President Zelensky (and Ukrainian lawmakers) have been under mounting pressure to set out demobilisation plans. This comes at precisely the same time as calls by the Ukrainian General Staff (and crucially Ukraine’s Western partners) for an expansion of mobilisation to offset growing personnel shortages – especially in Ukraine’s infantry.
• DEMOBILISATION: Ukraine’s General Staff reportedly opposes the draft law, given it would deprive the military of a significant number of personnel at a time when personnel shortages are worsening. According to Ukrainian reports, the proposed draft bill would involve personnel being demobilised after three years of service, including 18 months at the frontline. The bill would also require a mandatory rotation of personnel from the frontline after 90 days. While we cannot confirm these details, Ukrainian reports indicate that the current provisions of the draft law could see as many as 108,000 personnel, including 14,000 officers, demobilised. Additionally, the requirement to conduct a mandatory rotation of forces after 90 days would likely place extreme pressure on various Ukrainian positions, which personnel shortages would only worsen given troops often have to serve for extensive periods at the frontline due to Ukraine’s limited reserves. Ultimately, it remains unclear if the bill will proceed given the General Staff’s opposition. This opposition also means the bill has not yet been submitted to the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine’s unicameral parliament) for approval.
FORECAST
TALKS: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on 4 April that the US will consider additional sanctions against Russia and (crucially) reconsider its support for Ukraine if Moscow proves to be ‘unserious’ about negotiations. Rubio nevertheless stated that the US remains optimistic about reaching a peace deal in Ukraine, though he noted that ‘we’ll soon know in weeks, not months, whether Russia is ready for peace’. Rubio also stated that ‘if we wake up tomorrow and see that Russia has launched a large-scale offensive, it will be a pretty clear sign that they are not interested in peace’. It remains our assessment that Russian forces are preparing to intensify offensive operations across the frontline as part of the impending spring offensive following a steady decline in advances since November 2024. In the meantime, we continue to assess that Russia is likely unphased by the prospect of fresh sanctions (and potential tariffs), though a significant reversal of the US position on Ukraine – namely expanding military support for Kyiv – would likely prove an effective point of leverage to force the Kremlin to the negotiating table.
Amid growing US frustration at Russia’s position, US President Donald Trump’s close advisors are reportedly urging the president not to call his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, until the latter agrees to a ceasefire. We continue to assess that Russia’s current negotiating strategy is predicated on a desire to delay a ceasefire deal while attempting to extract as many concessions as possible. Trump has previously touted Easter (20 April) as a potential deadline for a (temporary) ceasefire. However, given that Russia continues to refuse to enter into a partial ceasefire in the Black Sea until certain sanctions are listed, the likelihood of a full ceasefire remains very low in the coming weeks. In the meantime, Russia is likely to try to reinvigorate negotiations to avoid alienating the Trump administration.
Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev stated on 6 April that new contacts between Russia and the US will take place this week. Dmitriev is the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and has emerged as a major Russian interlocutor and presidential aide for foreign economic relations. Dmitriev’s growing role in negotiations, including during recent US-Russian bilateral meetings in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), likely reflects the Kremlin’s efforts to court potential US investment and to agree to a commercial deal. However, it remains unclear how long the Trump administration will entertain Russian efforts to delay negotiations, particularly given that Ukraine has already agreed to a full and unconditional ceasefire if the Russians reciprocate. High-level negotiations will continue in Washington DC (US) this week, with Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko confirming on 7 April that Ukraine will send a delegation to the US capital to begin talks on a new draft minerals deal. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Apr 25. £450m surge of military support to boost Ukraine’s Armed Forces as UK and Germany chair meeting of 50 nations. Package will support UK jobs and growth, with equipment and repair contracts connecting UK companies with Ukrainian industry. The UK is surging rapid military support to Ukraine to put them in the strongest position to secure a lasting peace as partners meet in Brussels for the 27th Ukraine Defence Contact Group, chaired by the UK and Germany. The security of the UK and Europe starts in Ukraine, and a major new military support package will be delivered by British and Ukrainian suppliers to help boost Ukraine’s Armed Forces as they continue to defend against Russian attack. As chair of the meeting, the UK has secured ambitious pledges for Ukraine from donor countries. Today’s package, worth £450m, includes £350 million from the UK from this year’s record £4.5bn military support funding for Ukraine. Further funding is being provided by Norway, via the UK-led International Fund for Ukraine. The support package will be announced by Defence Secretary John Healey when he chairs the contact group alongside German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius later today, where 50 nations will come together to coordinate urgent military support for Ukraine. It will include £160m of UK funding to provide repairs and maintenance to vehicles and equipment the UK has already provided to Ukraine – partnering UK companies with Ukrainian industry, supporting the UK economy and skilled jobs. Today’s support also includes a new ‘close fight’ military aid package – with funding for radar systems, anti-tank mines and hundreds of thousands of drones – worth more than £250m, using funding from the UK and Norway. The package builds on the work of the drone capability coalition, led by the UK and Latvia. This will include high manoeuvrable first-person view (FPV) drones to attack targets, and drones which can drop explosives on Russian positions. These two types of drones are reported to be responsible for 60-70% of damage currently caused to Russian equipment. The new kit will be procured from a mixture of UK and Ukrainian suppliers, demonstrating how investment into Ukraine’s defence supports jobs and the economies of both the UK and Ukraine. The £160m package for equipment repairs and maintenance will ensure vital armoured vehicles and other equipment can get back to the battlefield as quickly as possible. It will be implemented through the UK’s Taskforce HIRST, linking UK and Ukrainian companies to ensure repairs can be conducted in country to ensure that vital equipment is returned to the frontline as quickly as possible.
The support provides opportunities for British companies to learn lessons from the battlefield and support the UK’s own industrial capabilities, an example of the UK-Ukraine 100-year partnership announced by the Prime Minister in action.
Addressing the contact group, Defence Secretary John Healey MP will say: “The work of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group is vital to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position and pile pressure on Putin to help force him to end this terrible war. We cannot jeopardise peace by forgetting the war, which is why today’s major package will surge support to Ukraine’s frontline fight. ,2025 is the critical year for Ukraine. Our job as defence ministers is to put into the hands of the Ukrainian war fighters what they need. We must step up to deter Russian aggression by continuing to bolster Ukraine’s defences.”
Yesterday, [Thursday] the Defence Secretary and his French counterpart, Minister Lecornu, chaired the first meeting of Coalition of the Willing defence ministers, bringing together 30 countries to progress planning for a reassurance force to support a lasting peace in Ukraine. The meeting followed a series of high-level meetings of leaders and defence chiefs in the last month to move forward with operational planning. This work delivers on the Prime Minister’s four-point plan to support Ukraine by ramping up delivery of weapons and equipment, boosting Ukraine’s defensive capabilities in the long term, working with allies to develop robust security assurances, and keeping up pressure on Putin. The UK is fully committed to working with allies to step up support to ensure Ukraine remains in the strongest possible position, which is why £4.5bn of military support will be provided this year – more than ever before. As well as demonstrating leadership through the Ukraine Defence Contact Group and Coalition of the Willing, the UK is also contributing heavily to NATO’s Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) Command, which is coordinating further support for Ukraine in the form of training and providing more capabilities. Through the International Fund for Ukraine, the UK will manage the NSATU Trust Fund for rapid procurement – which Canada, Denmark and Iceland have already pledged funding towards, to meet Ukraine’s urgent equipment support and logistical needs. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
10 Apr 25. From spring offensive to Kursk incursion: What Ukraine’s senior general disclosed. Oleksandr Syrsky doesn’t give many interviews, but he’s spoken to one of Ukraine’s largest online news sites and there are a few key takeaways.
Here are some of the main points made by Ukraine’s top military commander.
Russian Spring Offensive underway
Most importantly, he says Russia has already started its so-called Spring Offensive and has doubled attacks around the border regions of Sumy and Kharkiv, so far without any major gains.
Moscow now has 623,000 Russian troops fighting Ukraine, he says, and that’s increasing by eight to nine thousand a month.
Russian artillery bombardments decreasing
The Russians are firing fewer artillery shells than they were before – down from 40,000 a day to around 23,000.
That’s because Ukraine hit several of Russia’s biggest ammunition depots in long-range strikes.
Commanders questioned on whether Kursk raid was legal
On the Kursk incursion, he says Ukraine had intelligence that up to 160,000 Russian troops were about to attack around Sumy and Kharkiv.
Watch: Fighting continues despite hope for peace in Ukraine
Initially only four people knew what Kyiv was planning, and when commanders were told on the eve of the crossing, some even questioned whether it was legal.
The General also talked about the increasing use of drones and robotics.
Ukraine builds 20km fibre-optic drones
He says Ukraine has entered “afterburner mode” and is rapidly scaling domestic production.
It now has 20-kilometre fibre-optic drones plus increasing numbers of robot ground vehicles.
These can carry machine guns and use artificial intelligence to find targets and then decide how best to attack them.
Counter-offensive failure: lack of troops and ammo
On Ukraine’s ill-fated 2023 counter-offensive, the General admits Kyiv didn’t have enough men or ammunition.
If they’d had five brigades, not just two, then he believes Bakhmut and Soledar would both have been liberated.
Peacekeepers
General Syrsky was also asked about having foreign peacekeeper inside Ukraine, the Reassurance Force being discussed by the so-called Coalition of the Willing .
He says they’d be deployed where the threat of a Russian attack was minimal, and having them there would stabilise the situation for a while. But for how long? Well that, he says, will be difficult to predict. (Source: forces.net)
10 Apr 25. UK and France convene first Defence Ministers’ Ukraine Coalition of the Willing meeting. UK and France convene defence ministers’ meeting in Brussels to progress planning to support a lasting peace in Ukraine. Operational discussions to plan for a multinational reassurance force to support Ukraine in securing a lasting peace will progress today [April 10] with 30 defence ministers set to attend the latest Coalition of the Willing meeting.
The Defence Secretary, John Healey, and his French counterpart, Minister Sébastien Lecornu, will host around 30 nations involved in planning for the Coalition of the Willing in Brussels later today.
The meetings will focus on how the capabilities of each nation in the Coalition could be best used in supporting Ukraine’s long-term defence and security.
The Prime Minister and Defence Secretary have both been clear that a lasting peace in Ukraine will require credible security assurances to deter Russian aggression. The UK has been stepping up to lead international support to keep Ukraine in the fight now and put them in the strongest possible position to secure peace.
Addressing the meeting, Defence Secretary John Healey MP is expected to say:
A couple of weeks ago, I visited the UK’s Permanent Joint Headquarters where military leaders from around 30 nations were developing options and progressing plans. I was struck by their sense of historic responsibility to secure the peace in Ukraine and to strengthen European security for all our nations.
We cannot jeopardise the peace by forgetting about the war, so we must put even more pressure on Putin and step up our support for Ukraine – both in today’s fight and the push for peace. Our commitment is to put Ukraine in the strongest position to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty and deter future Russian aggression.
The meeting today comes after the Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, travelled to Kyiv with French military chiefs last weekend to meet President Zelenskyy, Defence Minister Umerov, and Ukrainian military leaders to update and discuss planning.
Tomorrow, the Defence Secretary and German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius will chair the 27th meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, bringing together around 50 nations to drive forward additional military support for Ukraine in the face of ongoing Russian attacks.
The UK convened and chaired the group in its latest format for the first time in February, with 46 nations in attendance, raising an extra 1.5 bn euros in military aid for Ukraine. These latest meetings come after the UK set the path to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence from 2027, and a boost to defence spending of £5bn for this financial year, delivering on the government’s Plan for Change.
This work delivers on the Prime Minister’s four-point plan to support Ukraine by ramping up delivery of weapons and equipment, boosting Ukraine’s defensive capabilities in the long term, working with allies to develop robust security assurances, and keeping up pressure on Putin.
The UK is fully committed to working with allies to step up support to ensure Ukraine is in the strongest possible position to secure peace and is stepping up support – providing £4.5bn of military support this year – more than ever before.
This support is vital to European security but is also supporting growth across the UK, with defence as an engine for growth. Last month, the Prime Minister announced a historic £1.6 bn deal to provide more than five thousand air defence missiles for Ukraine – creating 200 new jobs and supporting a further 700. Defence supports more than 434,000 skilled jobs in the UK.
The UK has sent around 400 different capabilities to Ukraine, with a £150m package including drones, tanks and air defence systems announced on 12 February 2025, a £225m package including drones, boats and munitions announced on 19 December 2024, and 650 lightweight multirole missiles announced on 6 September 2024. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
09 Apr 25. Ukraine’s military chief says new Russian offensive has begun. Ukraine’s military chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said in an interview published on Wednesday that Russia had launched a new offensive on the northeast of the country, adding that a large increase in assaults was already being observed. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had warned earlier that Russia was preparing an offensive on the two regions of Kharkiv and Sumy. The Reuters Tariff Watch newsletter is your daily guide to the latest global trade and tariff news. Sign up here.
“I can say that the president is absolutely right and this offensive has actually already begun,” Syrskyi said in an interview with Ukrainian publication LB.
“For several days, almost a week, we have been observing almost a doubling of the number of enemy attacks in all main directions (on the frontline),” he said.
Moscow is close to fully pushing Ukrainian forces out of their foothold in Kursk region, which they held since last August and which lies over the border from Sumy region.
Zelenskiy said on Monday that Ukrainian forces were also present in the adjacent Russian region of Belgorod.
The war, the first year of which was marked by rapid Russian territorial gains followed by Ukrainian counter-attacks, has since become far more of a battlefield stalemate, with Moscow grinding out relatively small gains by attacking with wave after wave of infantry squads. (Source: Reuters)
09 Apr 25. Zelenskyy Confirms Ukrainian Troops Operating Inside Russia’s Belgorod Region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed for the first time that Ukrainian troops are operating inside Russia’s Belgorod region. He said these operations are a justified response to Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
“We continue to carry out active operations in the border areas on enemy territory, and that is absolutely just — war must return to where it came from,” Zelenskyy said during a video address on Monday.
Zelenskyy said the goal is to protect Ukrainian towns in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, which Russia frequently attacks.
Last month, the president said “certain steps” are being taken by Ukraine’s military in Russia “just below the Kursk region,” hinting at a possible presence in the Belgorod region.
In recent days, Russian military bloggers had reported clashes between Russian and Ukrainian forces in the Belgorod region. In late March, Ukraine reported that its special forces destroyed four Russian helicopters in a strike in Belgorod region.
War experts have recently reported that Russia’s territorial advances in Ukraine have significantly slowed, reaching their lowest rate since late 2024.
According to the Institute for the Study of War’s report published on Sunday, Russian forces seized 203 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in March 2025, a sharp decline from the 627 square kilometers captured in November. The U.K. Ministry of Defense cited an even lower figure, stating that only 143 square kilometers were gained in March.
On Tuesday, Russia’s military confirmed that its forces had regained control of Guyevo, a village near the Ukrainian border and south of Sudzha, which had been liberated last month. The announcement came after the capture of Basivka, a village in Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region, across from Kursk, on Sunday. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
09 Apr 25. Ukraine Captures Two Chinese Nationals Fighting for Russia in Donetsk. Ukrainian troops captured two Chinese nationals fighting for Russia in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday. The incident marks the first time Chinese citizens have been publicly confirmed as involved in Russia’s war effort on Ukrainian territory. Zelenskyy said the two men were captured during fighting near the villages of Tarasivka and Bilohorivka in Donetsk Oblast. Identification documents, bank cards, and personal data were found in their possession. The Chinese nationals who were captured are now in the custody of Ukraine’s Security Service.
“We have information that there are much more than two such Chinese citizens in the occupier’s units than just these two,” Zelenskyy’s post on X reads. “We are currently verifying all the facts—intelligence, the Security Service of Ukraine, and the relevant units of the Armed Forces are working on it.”
In a post on X, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said he had summoned China’s chargé d’affaires to protest the incident and demand an explanation. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
08 Apr 25. TEKEVER opens new Ukraine arm to boost defence support, innovation. With the new local entity, TEKEVER intends to expand its workforce and network of facilities across the country. European uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) company TEKEVER has established a new entity in Ukraine, following a collaboration with the Ministry of Strategic Industries of Ukraine. This initiative is designed to support the Ukrainian armed forces and strengthen European defence by tapping into regional innovation and expertise. The new subsidiary will allow TEKEVER to increase its employee base and establish a network of Ukrainian facilities focused on maintenance, engineering support, research and development for new capabilities, as well as training centres aimed at enhancing operational efficiency for Ukrainian collaborators.
These facilities are conveniently situated for easy access to frontline operations and other defence-supportive organisations within Ukraine. They are also constructed to be relocatable should security concerns arise.
Since 2022, TEKEVER has been actively cooperating with the Ukrainian military, deploying its UAS technology for intelligence gathering, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance missions.
The company has consistently refined its systems based on frontline feedback to ensure peak performance amidst sophisticated electronic warfare environments. Its AR3 system has logged more than 10,000 hours of operational flight within Ukraine, showcasing its reliability and advanced development stage.
Moreover, TEKEVER said that it has supported numerous initiatives aimed at encouraging innovation among Ukrainian start-ups that contribute critical technologies for frontline use.
The establishment of this new branch in Ukraine will enhance TEKEVER’s ability to quickly modify its systems, expand training opportunities for Ukrainian partners, and collaborate on developing novel solutions with regional entities.
This expansion into Ukraine positions TEKEVER to cultivate and harness the significant local talent and innovative capabilities in defence technology.
TEKEVER CEO Ricardo Mendes said:“We have been proud to support Ukraine since the early stages of the Russian invasion in 2022 and remain committed to doing so. We work closely with our end-users in Ukraine to ensure that our platforms and technologies provide them with the critical intelligence needed to fight this war and defend their country. This initiative will see TEKEVER significantly enhance the level of support for our Ukrainian partners.
“Ukraine has become a hub for defence and technology innovation throughout the war, and is home to the most resourceful and resilient talent pool. By formalising our presence in Ukraine, we will continue to invest in this talent and foster innovation that is vital for the defence of Ukraine and the future security of Europe overall.
“The geopolitical landscape has shifted significantly in recent weeks, making European support for Ukraine even more vital. The steps we are taking to expand our presence in Ukraine reflect our recognition of this new reality and our commitment to leading the development of critical defence capabilities for Europe as a whole.”
Recently, TEKEVER said its AR3 small, long endurance UAS completed over 10,000 operational flight hours in Ukraine.
Designed for both land and maritime ISR operations, the AR3 UAS has modular payload architecture, extended endurance, and fully autonomous operation capabilities.
In November 2024, TEKEVER raised €70m ($73.72m) in a funding round led by Baillie Gifford and backed by the NATO Innovation Fund.
This funding aims to support TEKEVER’s efforts to accelerate research and development and expand its global production and delivery capabilities to meet the demand for its drone technology. (Source: airforce-technology.com)
08 Apr 25. Drones now account for 80% of casualties in Ukraine-Russia war. It is thought that drones are causing well in excess of 1,000 combat casualties per day across Ukraine. The majority of combat casualties in the Ukraine-Russia war are now being caused by one-way attack drones, superceding the lethality of artillery, while the latest battlefield understanding points to Russia having sustained 250,000 personnel killed in action since February 2022. While the Ukraine war saw the reemergence of artillery and heavy armour as critical battlefield capabilities, once thought obsolete in the face of Western counterinsurgency campaigns, the use of drone warfare at the tactical level has signified a new epoch in modern warfare. Innovations in doctrine, specialised units, and technological advances, such as fiber-optic guided uncrewed systems, have all contributed to the drone supplanting contemporary military platforms as the prime lethal threat. Expanding the drone threat to include larger platforms, and the threat multiplies further. It is understood that Russia launched 10,500 glide bombs into Ukraine in March, a massive increase in firing rate from previous years. With hundreds of tactical attack drones deployed by Ukraine and Russia daily, current understanding states that 70-80% of daily combat losses from both sides are now caused by drones.
Taking Ukraine’s claim on 8 April to have inflicted about 1,300 combat casualties on Russian forces in the preceding 24 hours, drones are likely responsible for more than 1,000 alone.
Russia nearing one m combat casualties
Meanwhile, as Ukraine’s claims of total Russian casualties continues to climb daily, now at over 926,000 military personnel, it is thought that more than a quarter of a m have been killed in action. Western estimates are broadly similar to those of Ukraine, with a generally accepted figure of 900,000+ Russian casualties.
The Ukraine war, which long since passed a combined one m casualty mark, is by far the most lethal in generations and has brought industrial level slaughter to Europe, only this time through the use of drone- and digital-era technology and efficiency.
In addition, latest calculations of North Korean military operations assisting Russian military units combating Ukraine in the Kursk region suggest Pyongyang’s forces have sustained over 5,000 combat casualties, with around one-third killed in action.
With Ukraine on the backfoot for most of 2024, the overall battlefield picture has changed little in 2025, as Russia continues to grind forwards across the eastern front. Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast has effectively ended, with its forces thought to be holding around 60km2 across Russia’s Belgorod and Kursk regions. By contrast, Russia occupies over 110,000km2 of Ukraine, nearly 20% of the country’s total land area. (Source: army-technology.com)
08 Apr 25. Russian Advances in Ukraine Drop to Lowest Level Since 2024. Russia’s pace of territorial gains in Ukraine has slowed to its lowest level since late 2024. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces captured 203 square kilometers of Ukrainian land in March 2025—down from 627 square kilometers in November. The U.K. Ministry of Defense (MOD) reported an even lower figure of 143 square kilometers for March. Both sources agree that Russia’s advances have steadily decreased each month since November 2024, with the majority of the gains concentrated in central Donetsk Oblast. The UK MOD reported that the number dropped to under 400 in December, around 326 in January, and 195 in February. Meanwhile, the ISW provided slightly different figures, stating that Russia gained 569 square kilometers in December 2024, 427 square kilometers in January 2025, and 354 square kilometers in February 2025. According to ISW, Ukrainian forces have slowed Russia’s momentum through localized counterattacks, especially near Pokrovsk and Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian troops retook several positions in these areas, reversing some of Russia’s earlier gains and limiting Moscow’s ability to push further east.
Despite its losses, Russia still controls about 20% of Ukraine. Earlier, the ISW estimated that it would take Russia more than 83 years to capture the remaining 80% of Ukraine, assuming they could sustain current casualty rates.
Between March 29 and April 4, Russia claimed that its forces captured four settlements in Donetsk and two villages in the southern Zaporizhzhia region.
Over the weekend, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced the capture of the Ukrainian village of Basovka in the Sumy region. On Monday, they reported the subsequent seizure of the Donetsk village of Katerynivka. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
09 Apr 25. Belgium commits to €1bn annual military aid package to Ukraine. The move is part of Belgium’s strategy to strengthen the Army in response to the Ukraine conflict. Belgium has pledged a bilateral aid package to support Ukraine, with a commitment to provide €1bn ($1.10bn) annually, starting in 2025. Prime Minister Bart De Wever announced the decision during a press conference in Kyiv. The meeting, which included representatives from ten Belgian defence companies, focused on joint arms production and the investment in Ukraine’s defence industry. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged Belgium’s role in reinforcing Ukraine’s air force capabilities, specifically mentioning ongoing efforts to secure F-16 fighter jets.
He said: “This includes defence, political, and humanitarian support, in particular support for Ukrainians in Belgium. But most importantly, at the heart of our partnership is a shared sense of justice. Belgium stands with us in believing in the righteousness of our defence and the injustice of Russian aggression.”
GlobalData’s report indicates that Belgian defence spending is influenced by various factors, with the Ukraine conflict acting as a catalyst for increased government spending.
However, Belgium has emphasised that any escalation in military commitment will depend on heightened cooperation with EU and Nato partners.
De Wever said: “We need to help Ukraine build greater self-defence capabilities and also prepare Europe for potential future aggression from Russia.
“It’s essential that we work together so that the private sector sees attractive opportunities to invest and help expand our collective defence manufacturing capabilities.”
Bart De Wever stated that Belgium is committed to offering consistent military assistance to Ukraine on an annual basis.
During their conversation, the two officials also addressed the topic of sustaining sanctions imposed on Russia.
Earlier in April 2025, reports highlighted a shift in the Ukraine-Russia war, with one-way attack drones now responsible for the majority of combat casualties, surpassing artillery in lethality.
Additionally, Russia’s intensified use of glide bombs, with 10,500 launched into Ukraine in March 2025 alone, signifies an escalation in the conflict’s intensity. (Source: army-technology.com)
09 Apr 25. Japan expressed interest Tuesday in participating in the NATO command for its Ukrainian mission based in Germany in what would be a major boost in ties with the largely European alliance.
Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani announced his country’s interest during talks with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Tokyo. After providing the war-torn country with defense equipment and support, Japan now wants to join NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine, or NSATU, headquartered at a U.S. base in the German town of Wiesbaden.
Details of the mission, including the possibility of sending any Japan Self Defense Force members to Wiesbaden, were still to be discussed. But any Japanese cooperation was not expected to involve combat, in line with what has been Tokyo’s post-World War II tradition of limiting its military’s role. Nakatani said Japan wants to further deepen security cooperation with NATO and that participation in the NSATU mission would help Tokyo learn lessons from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“Both Japan and NATO face many challenges and our security environment has become increasingly more severe,” Nakatani said. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/AP)
08 Apr 25. Ukrainian Military Deploys Drones with 20-Km Fibre Optics. Unmanned systems with a 20-kilometer range are already operating at the front in Ukraine, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on April 5. The Ukrainian military continues to expand its use of fiber-optic drones, increasing both their numbers and capabilities, according to Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi. In March, Ukrainian drones destroyed more than 77,000 Russian targets, a 10% increase from February. Syrskyi also reported that approximately 1,000 Russian reconnaissance drones were neutralized during the same period. To counter the growing threat of Russian drones, Ukraine is deploying new electronic warfare systems and increasing the number of short-range systems on the front lines.
On April 1, the Brave1 project announced that 15 developers had conducted large-scale tests of fiber-optic FPV drones capable of flying more than 20 kilometers.
These drones have become crucial for Ukraine’s military efforts, with Brave1 noting that fiber-optic drones are among the most in-demand UAV types at the front.
According to Syrskyi, “unmanned technologies play a key role in modern warfare. With their help, the Defense Forces are now effectively destroying the enemy and its equipment, almost equal to the share of artillery damage. And most importantly, by increasing the role of drones on the battlefield, we are saving the lives of our servicemen.
We continue to increase the number and capabilities of fiber-optic drones. Unmanned systems with a kill range of 20 kilometers are already operating at the front,”
According to the general,
“there is also a positive result in destroying enemy reconnaissance UAVs of the operational and tactical level by our air defense systems and interceptor drones. Thus, about a thousand reconnaissance drones were neutralized in a month. We are continuing this work.
special attention was paid to countering enemy unmanned systems. We are introducing new electronic warfare systems to protect our servicemen. We have significantly increased the number of short-range electronic warfare systems.”
The Commander-in-Chief informed that the combat commanders of the units of unmanned systems “Birds of Madiar”, the 3rd Assault Brigade and others made reports and proposals.
“Unmanned systems are developing rapidly, so we have to keep abreast of technological innovations, and all the best practices in the use of UAVs should be implemented and scaled up quickly,” emphasized Syrskyi.
As Ukrinform reported earlier, the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine initiated the creation of a women’s unit called Harpies, where volunteers will perform combat missions using UAVs and ground drones. (Source: UAS VISION/Ukrinform; New Voice of Ukraine)
07 Apr 25. Cuashub.com said today that Ukrainian drone strikes target key Russian military-industrial sites. Ukrainian drones have reportedly struck two critical Russian military-industrial facilities deep inside Russian territory, including a fiber-optic cable production plant in Saransk and an explosives manufacturer in Samara Oblast. The attacks are among the longest-range drone operations attributed to Ukraine to date, with targets located between 670 and 900 kilometers from the border.
According to Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, the Fiber Optic Systems plant in Saransk was hit in a strike confirmed on April 5. The facility is the sole Russian manufacturer of fiber-optic cables specifically used in military drone operations and secure communications systems. Open sources indicate the plant produces approximately four m kilometers of fiber annually, supporting Russian control, data transmission, and battlefield communications alongside the production of tethered drones that have seen widespread use in Ukraine in recent months. While the extent of the damage remains unverified, defense analysts suggest that any sustained disruption at the site could impact the operational effectiveness of Russian drones and communications infrastructure on the frontlines.
In a separate incident, the Promsintez explosives plant in the city of Chapayevsk, Samara Oblast, was also targeted, resulting in a fire. The facility reportedly produces more than 30,000 tons of explosives annually and is located near the Polymer plant, another major industrial site involved in explosive materials production. The regional governor confirmed the incident, though full details on casualties or the scope of damage have not been disclosed.
The two sites are located roughly 670 kilometers (Saransk) and 900 kilometers (Chapayevsk) from the Ukrainian border. Analysts believe the drones may have taken indirect routes spanning up to 1,500 kilometers to avoid Russian air defense systems, demonstrating a growing capability in Ukraine’s long-range strike operations. These attacks are the latest in a series of Ukrainian drone operations targeting logistical and industrial nodes linked to the Russian war effort. While Kyiv has not officially claimed responsibility, Ukrainian officials have consistently emphasized the strategic objective of degrading Russia’s capacity to sustain its military operations, particularly those involving unmanned systems and ammunition supply chains.
https://cuashub.com/en/content/ukrainian-drone-strikes-target-key-russian-military-industrial-sites/ (Source: https://cuashub.com/)
07 Apr 25. Norway to increase military aid for Ukraine to $4.58bn in 2025. The additional funds will focus on air defence systems, artillery ammunition, drones, and maritime capabilities. The Norwegian Government is set to boost its military aid to Ukraine in 2025, following a consensus in the Storting, the nation’s parliament. The planned augmentation will see Norway’s contribution to Ukraine’s defence efforts rise by Nkr50bn ($4.58bn), reaching a total of Nkr85bn for that year.
This increment in funding is earmarked exclusively for military assistance, which will be channelled through global partnerships and purchases from Ukrainian defence manufacturers. Norway’s enhanced support aligns with Ukraine’s needs and is coordinated with contributions from other European partners. The funds will be transferred following the established procedures to ensure they are used for the intended purposes. Emphasis will be placed on acquiring air defence systems, artillery shells, uncrewed aerial vehicles, and strengthening Ukraine’s naval defences. The increase for 2025 will involve a temporary rise in withdrawals from the Government Pension Fund Global, reflecting the necessity to protect Norway’s fundamental security interests.
However, this does not imply any changes to the existing fiscal policy framework, the government noted. (Source: army-technology.com)
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