NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Mar 10.

10 Mar 25. Russian forces have advanced further into Kursk, trapping Ukrainian soldiers as part of a major encirclement operation, pro-Kremlin war bloggers said. Moscow’s troops were reported to have cleared the village of Ivashkovsky as they advanced from seven directions. Yuri Podolyaka, a pro-Russian military blogger, said Russia’s advance had left pockets of Ukrainian troops cut off from friendly forces.

“Over the past four days, Russian troops have cleared as much territory in the Kursk region as they sometimes could not even clear in a couple of months,” Rybar, a Russian blogger close to the defence ministry, said.

Ukraine had been hoping to hold onto the Russian territory it seized as a potential bargaining chip in any negotiations. It came as Russia announced on Sunday it had captured territory in Ukraine’s Sumy region for the first time since 2022. Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, has travelled to Saudi Arabia for tomorrow’s talks with Ukrainian officials. US officials said they believed Kyiv was “ready to move forward” with ceasefire negotiations. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

Mar 09.

07 Mar 25. Ukraine will try to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support. Officials briefed on preparations for the negotiations in Saudi Arabia. (Source: FT.com)

09 Mar 25. European arms imports rose 155% in 2020-24 and Ukraine has become the world’s biggest arms importer following Russia’s 2022 invasion, according to a report released by a leading conflict think tank on Monday. Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) showed the United States continued to dominate the global stage, with U.S. companies increasing their share of global arms exports to 43% in 2020-24, from 35% in the 2015-2019 period. U.S. arms exports amounted to about the same share of the global market as the next eight countries combined. Europe as a whole accounted for 28% of global arms imports from 2020-24, up from 11% between 2015 and 2019, SIPRI said. Ukraine alone accounted for 8.8% of global arms imports form 2020-24, and just under half of those imports were from the U.S., which under President Donald Trump has paused military aid to Kyiv. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to the biggest confrontation between the West and Russia since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, and the Kremlin and the White House have said missteps could trigger World War Three. (Source: Reuters)

Mar 08.

08 Mar 25. Higher European defence budgets and a ramp-up of production by military equipment industries are necessary to secure Europe, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in a German newspaper interview.

08 Mar 25. Ukraine’s first days of fighting without US support have seen its troops forced to give up more of the Russian territory they seized last year in the Kursk region.  (Source: FT.com)

Mar 07.

07 Mar 25. Donald Trump has threatened Russia with additional “large-scale” sanctions and tariffs, as the US president shifts to piling pressure on Moscow in an effort to broker a peace deal in Ukraine. (Source: FT.com)

07 Mar 25. Europe is rushing to provide Ukraine with alternatives to Elon Musk’s Starlink broadband satellite network, after the US withdrew military aid. (Source: FT.com)

07 Mar 25. Ukraine-US: Upcoming negotiations will possibly ease recently heightened tensions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on 6 March that talks between Ukraine and the US will take place in Saudi Arabia next week. Zelensky disclosed that he would travel to the kingdom on 10 March to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, adding that his team will remain there for discussions with US partners. The Ukrainian president reiterated that his country is ‘most interested’ in peace. The slated talks follow a public argument between Zelensky and US President Donald Trump on 28 February, after which Trump claimed that his Ukrainian counterpart is not ready for peace. Ultimately, the upcoming negotiations will provide Ukraine with an opportunity to smooth over recent disagreements and discuss the US’ suspension of military aid and intelligence to Ukraine. At the same time, the upcoming talks will possibly moderately lower Ukrainian and European concerns about the US and Russia enforcing an unfavourable deal on Kyiv to end the war. For further scenarios on the trajectory of the Russo-Ukrainian war. (Source: Sibylline)

Mar 06.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
* BAKHMUT: Ukrainian forces have continued to make gains in Toretsk; however, the suspension of US intelligence sharing will likely undermine opportunities for further large-scale Ukrainian counter-attacks
* ELECTIONS: The US Trump administration has reportedly held secret discussions with key Ukrainian opposition figures largely focused on whether Ukraine could hold a timely presidential election
* REFUGEES: Reports indicate that EU leaders are assessing the possibility of a potential influx of Ukrainian refugees triggered by diminished US military support for Ukraine
* FORECAST: On 5 March, the US suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine, following the earlier decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine; both decisions will have a significant impact on the battlefield over the short-to-medium term
* BAKHMUT: Ukrainian forces have continued to make gains during counter-attacks in and around Toretsk; however, the suspension of US intelligence sharing will likely undermine opportunities for further large-scale Ukrainian counter-attacks. Geolocated footage published on 3 March indicates that Ukrainian forces had advanced along Promeneva Street in south-western Toretsk. Together with operations across the north of the town, these recent advances underscore a concerted Ukrainian effort to deprive Russia of control over Toretsk. Meanwhile, numerous Russian sources have reported in recent days that the Russian command is transferring units in a bid to stabilise the situation in Toretsk, much of which is now characterised as a contested ‘grey zone’. Ukrainian forces have an opportunity to make further gains while Russian forces rotate and surge capabilities to the area; however, the impact of the suspension of US intelligence sharing (even if temporary) could limit these opportunities in the coming weeks. See FORECAST below for further analysis.
* DONETSK: Ukrainian forces have also continued to make gains in the Pokrovsk sector, where Russian gains have slowed down over recent weeks. Geolocated footage from 5 March shows Ukrainian advances in eastern Shevchenko, located to the south of Pokrovsk. Additional footage from 3 March showed Ukrainian forces making gains in Udachne, located to the south-west of Pokrovsk. Meanwhile, as of 4 March, Russian forces reportedly made confirmed gains east of Preobrazhenka, located to the south-west of Pokrovsk.
* DONETSK: Various Ukrainian sources have recently highlighted the decrease in Russia’s operational tempo in the Pokrovsk sector, going from between 40 and 60 attacks per day to between 18 and 20 per day. On 5 March, a Ukrainian military expert explained that a slowdown in recruitment for the sector is preventing Russia from offsetting heavy losses, though we cannot confirm this. Additionally, Ukrainian forces reportedly achieve a higher success rate with first-person view (FPV) drone attacks, which now eliminate 85% of Russian targets, up from 50% in summer 2024. Alternatively, the decrease of Russian gains in the sector could likely indicate that Russia is currently shifting its operational focus to the east, towards Kostiyantinivka. We previously assessed that this will likely become the focus for Russian forces during the upcoming spring fighting season.
* KHARKIV: Nothing significant to report
* KURSK: Nothing significant to report
* OSKIL-KREMINNA: Warming temperatures are hampering Russian efforts to cross the Oskil River in the Kupiansk area and expand their footprint on the river’s right (west) bank. On 5 March, Ukraine’s Khortytsia Group of Forces stated that warming temperatures and thinning ice on the Oskil River are complicating Russian attempts to cross the river, particularly north of Kupiansk, where Russia has failed to make any advances over recent days. Over the past few months, Russian forces have specifically focused on crossing the river from Dvorichna, located to the north of Kupiansk. Meanwhile, further south, geolocated footage from 4 March shows recent Russian advances south-east of Nove, located to the north-east of Lyman.
* SOUTHERN: On 5 March, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that its forces had taken Pryvilne, a village located to the north-west of Velyka Novosilka; this has not yet been visually confirmed. Russian forces are continuing efforts to expand control of the area west and north of Velyka Novosilka, including north along the Mokri Yaly River. Meanwhile, Russian forces are also making some advances further west in Zaporizhzhia oblast. A map published by the Ukrainian General Staff on 4 March indicates that Russian forces have advanced across various fields south of Mali Shcherbaky, located around 23 miles (37km) to the south-east of Zaporizhzhia city.
* STRIKES: Over recent days, Russia has continued launching daily large-scale drone attacks. On 5 March, these attacks were accompanied by three Iskandr-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles. Two such missiles accompanied attacks on 6 March. A missile from the 6 March strike hit a hotel in Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk oblast), killing four people. A group of foreign humanitarian volunteers reportedly stayed at the facility, though none were injured. Similar attacks against hotels have occurred sporadically over the past year. We continue to assess that hospitality facilities located close to the frontline and in near-front areas will remain exposed to Russian strikes, with sporadic attacks against such establishments likely forming part of Russia’s wider efforts to deter Western support for Ukraine. Attacks also struck Odesa oblast, damaging civilian and energy infrastructure.
* STRIKES: For further analysis on the impact of the US cessation of intelligence sharing on Ukraine’s air defence coverage, please see the FORECAST below.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
* AID: For analysis on the US decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine. For analysis on the subsequent suspension of intelligence sharing, see the FORECAST below.
* ELECTIONS: Four senior members of US President Donald Trump’s administration reportedly held secret discussions with key Ukrainian opposition figures largely focused on whether Ukraine could hold a timely presidential election. Politico reported this earlier on 6 March, adding that Yulia Tymoshenko (twice former prime minister of Ukraine) and senior members of former president Petro Poroshenko’s European Solidarity (YeS) party were involved in the talks. According to the outlet, plans under discussion via back channel communications centre on holding a presidential vote after a temporary ceasefire is agreed upon but before full-scale peace negotiations begin in earnest. Poroshenko and Tymoshenko have so far publicly opposed holding elections before an end to hostilities.
* ELECTIONS: While we cannot confirm the development, it underscores how Ukrainian opposition forces are seeking to leverage the ever-apparent friction between the Trump administration and incumbent President Volodymyr Zelensky to facilitate a leadership change. On 3 March, Trump claimed that Zelensky would not ‘be around very long’ if he refused to make a deal with Russia to end the war. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz has similarly cast doubt on Zelensky’s ability to make progress on ending the war with Moscow and Washington DC. For further analysis on the possibility of holding elections during wartime and the implications of a ‘return of politics’ to Ukraine, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 3 February 2025.
* REFUGEES: Reports indicate that EU leaders are assessing the possibility of a potential influx of Ukrainian refugees caused by the threat of a prolonged war with diminished US military support for Ukraine. On 5 March, German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said that if this materialised, the EU would need a mechanism to more equally distribute a new wave of Ukrainians leaving their native country. Faeser stated, however, that she does not currently consider another large surge of refugees to be likely. That said, she went on to explain that it is a scenario ministers have to discuss. The Czech Republic, Germany and Poland have received the most Ukrainian refugees, though the Baltic states, Ireland and Slovakia have also been key destinations.
* REFUGEES: Certain EU countries will likely have reservations regarding the accepting of a new wave of Ukrainian refugees; this includes states which are already hosting a significant Ukrainian population and/or those wishing to tighten migration flows more broadly. Although a significant increase in hostility towards Ukrainian refugees is unlikely in Europe overall. That said, officials and members of the public will possibly raise opposition towards welcoming them due to perceived or actual strains on social sectors, such as housing, education and medical services.
* REFUGEES: Meanwhile, the Trump administration is reportedly planning to revoke temporary legal status for some 240,000 Ukrainians who fled the war. According to a report from Reuters earlier on 6 March, this could come as soon as April. The removal of such protection is reportedly part of a broader Trump administration rollback of former Biden administration migration initiatives. Such a decision has a realistic possibility of leading to deportations, whether back to Ukraine, elsewhere in Europe or to bordering states (such as Canada or Mexico).
* PEACE: France and the UK are aiming to finalise a peace plan alongside Ukraine to present to the US, possibly in a matter of ‘days’. Reuters reported on the matter on 5 March, adding that their initiative would initially outline a short truce but eventually include broader security guarantees. According to an unspecified European diplomat, London and Paris are also hoping that the plan could encourage more healthy dialogue between Kyiv and Washington DC and facilitate new meetings between Trump and European leaders. The reports reflect French and UK efforts to mediate tensions in relations between Ukraine and the US and advocate for more favourable peace terms for Kyiv amid concerns the US and Russia could sideline its interests.
FORECAST
INTELLIGENCE: On 5 March, the US suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine. It follows a suspension of military aid on 3 March after a public dispute between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on 28 February (see Sibylline Alert – Ukraine – 4 March 2025).
The US has reportedly discontinued real-time intelligence on Russian long-range strikes, which will significantly increase the lethality of such attacks. Until now, the US has provided essential intelligence to Ukraine’s early warning system, helping the authorities detect and alert the public about Russian long-range attacks. Russia will likely exploit this situation to intensify its use of long-range missiles, which have been used in a limited capacity since the start of the year. Given the likely growing risks of air defence system shortages in the coming weeks, large-scale Russian missile attacks will likely inflict severe damage across Ukraine, including major urban centres such as the capital Kyiv. Moreover, the halt of intelligence sharing includes stopping the transfer of guidance data for Ukrainian strikes, which will create significant operational gaps on the battlefield. This, along with the halt in military aid supplies, will weaken Ukraine’s effective use of US-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket (HIMARS) systems, which Kyiv has extensively used to target Russian artillery, command centres and troop concentrations. As a result, Russia will likely expand its offensive efforts along the frontline and increase its artillery advantage, especially as the latest developments will likely hamper Ukraine’s counterbattery strikes. Notably, on 5 March, Deputy Chairperson of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev advocated for inflicting maximum damage on Ukraine as a result of the US decision. His comments indicate that Moscow will highly likely exploit the suspension of intelligence sharing to make further gains across the frontline. Furthermore, the suspension of US intelligence sharing will diminish the effectiveness of Ukraine’s longer-range strikes with other Western-provided weaponry. Such equipment includes the Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles supplied by the UK and France and the US-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS). That said, Ukraine’s use of such projectiles has already sharply decreased over the past few months due to depleted stockpiles and gaps in Western supplies.
Meanwhile, media outlets in the UK reported on 4 March that Washington DC has also banned the UK from sharing any US military intelligence with Ukraine. While this does not preclude the UK from sharing its own intelligence, French Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu also disclosed that Paris is continuing to provide military intelligence to Ukraine. It is possible that Ukraine’s other allies will increase their military intelligence sharing in the coming weeks. However, it is unclear whether France, the UK and/or other possible countries will be able to fill the significant gap left by US intelligence support.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe and National Security Adviser Waltz have signalled that a pause in intelligence sharing could realistically be temporary if the Trump administration considers Kyiv has taken steps towards negotiations to end the war. Waltz also mentioned the need for some confidence-building measures for Trump to consider lifting its moratorium on assistance. While it is unclear what these could realistically be, the signing of the upended minerals deal could possibly stand as one such measure. As such, the suspension of military assistance and intelligence sharing could realistically reflect intensified efforts to pressure Zelensky to the negotiating table. The Trump administration has taken a transactional approach in its determination to secure the best terms for its interests, as emphasised by its approach to tariffs. Therefore, it is possible that military assistance and/or military intelligence could be reinstated at a later stage.
* Ukraine: Suspension of US intelligence sharing will highly likely deteriorate operational environment. On 5 March, US CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed that Washington DC has paused intelligence sharing with Ukraine to pressure Kyiv into co-operating with US President Donald Trump’s plans to end the war with Russia. The suspension includes halting the transfer of guidance data for Ukrainian High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) strikes, likely creating gaps at the operational level on the battlefield. The US has also reportedly discontinued real-time intelligence on Russian long-range strikes. This will highly likely increase the lethality of such attacks, particularly those involving missiles. Ratcliffe’s announcement follows a suspension of military aid on 3 March after a public dispute between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on 28 February. While France has offered to provide intelligence, it is unclear if it can fill the significant gap left by US intelligence support. We assess that the cessation of US intelligence sharing will significantly negatively impact Ukraine’s security and military operations, even if it is maintained for a short period.
* Russia: Draft resolution highly likely aims to expand government’s digital surveillance. Reports emerged on 5 March that the Russian authorities intend to oblige financial market organisations to request information from their Russian clients to determine their location. According to a draft government resolution, this includes banks, insurance companies and securities brokers. The stated purpose of requesting such information is to determine a client’s tax residency status, particularly if they are suspected of using an organisation’s services predominantly from another country. This refers to remote service channels, most likely meaning mobile applications and online banking. Aside from tax purposes, the draft resolution highly likely seeks to increase the government’s digital control over its citizens, especially anti-Kremlin dissidents who fled the country following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We assess that Russians now residing in post-Soviet states with traditionally close ties or intelligence partnerships with Moscow will possibly face additional heightened security risks, including physical surveillance and harassment
Mar 04.
• Russia: Reported database of anti-war Russians will elevate security risks for dissidents. Reports emerged on 3 March indicating that the authorities in Tatarstan Republic (Russia) maintain a database with information on Russian citizens who are anti-war. Journalists identified it when studying a ruling of the region’s Supreme Court concerning the trial of a Tatarstan native, Andrei Bogdanov. Bogdanov had been convicted of repeatedly ‘discrediting’ the army and the attempted arson of a military registration and enlistment office. The ruling mentioned a database of individuals who protested or posted anti-war content online following the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022; Bogdanov was featured on it. While we cannot confirm the existence of such a database, such reports are highly likely credible. The authorities highly likely maintain similar information on anti-war Russians across different regions of the country. We assess that the existence of such a database will increase the risks of arbitrary detention, harassment, intimidation, prosecution and surveillance facing anti-war Russian citizens over the medium-to-long term.
• Sweden: Baltic Sea will likely remain a ‘hotspot’ for Russian grey zone operations in coming months. On 3 March, the Swedish police confirmed that they are investigating a suspected sabotage incident on the water supply system on Gotland Island in the Baltic Sea. The incident took place on 2 March as an unknown perpetrator cut off power to a water pump. The authorities prevented water supply disruption; there have been no confirmed suspects at the time of writing. However, the incident underscores the risk of sabotage targeting critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea region. There has been regular disruption to undersea data and power cables as a result of vessels dropping their anchors over the past six months. Regardless of who sabotaged the water supply system on Gotland, we assess that the recent surge in European support to Ukraine and questions over US commitment to defence in Europe will possibly drive an uptick in Russian grey zone operations in Europe. We assess that the Baltic Sea will likely represent a flashpoint in the event of such an uptick, driving espionage and security risks to energy, telecommunications and shipping companies.
• Air Defence Shortages caused by Aid suspension. On 3 March, the US Trump administration announced that it is suspending the delivery of all military aid to Ukraine. The White House stated that the decision to pause and ‘review’ US aid is aimed at ensuring any such assistance contributes to a solution to end the war.
SIGNIFICANCE
The decision comes after a public spat between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on 28 February resulted in the collapse of a nascent minerals deal. Please see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 3 March 2025 for further analysis.
• According to the Kiel Institute, between 2022 and 2024, the US supplied approximately USD 67 bn in military aid to Ukraine (accounting for 49% of total external support), while the rest of the world (combined) supplied roughly USD 69 bn (51%). The proportion of European aid contributions to Ukraine has been growing proportionally, with the EU, UK and Norway collectively contributing around USD 25 bn in 2024 (notably more than the US). However, if Europe is to maintain the current levels of overall military support to Ukraine, spending would effectively have to double. Meanwhile, Ukraine has increased its domestic military-industrial production; Kyiv now claims that approximately 55% of the weapons it uses on the frontline are produced or funded domestically inside Ukraine (while Europe and the US provide 25% and 20%, respectively).
FORECAST
The immediate impact of the decision on the battlefield will likely be limited, unless a decision to suspend intelligence and space-based surveillance and communications systems is also taken. Various Western and Ukrainian officials have stated that Ukraine has enough weapons to keep fighting at its current pace until at least the summer. However, the fact that the decision also applies to weapons shipments that were approved by the Biden administration (many of which are still in transit to Ukraine) likely means that the consequences of the decision will be felt much sooner. Nonetheless, it will likely take several months for major material shortages to manifest on the frontline. However, Russia will highly likely seek to exploit the US’ recent decision, including by intensifying military operations across the frontline.
European leaders are reiterating their determination to continue supporting Ukraine militarily and financially, though Europe’s current inability to provide military equipment at the same scale as the US will create significant uncertainty over the next six months. Nevertheless, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on 4 March a new ‘Re-arm Europe’ plan, which aims to mobilise almost EUR 800 bn (USD 841.3 bn) to strengthen European defence production and capabilities. Most crucially, the plan will exempt defence spending from tight EU-wide deficit rules; it will also allow EU cohesion funds to be spent on defence and unlock EUR 150 bn (USD 157. 8 bn) in loans for defence investments – including joint-procurement for Ukraine. Europe has ramped up its artillery ammunition production, though this is only one critical capability that Ukraine will need to continue fighting.
There are numerous systems that only the US produces, the absence of which will create a significant capability gap for Ukrainian forces and undermine its air defences (across the country). Ammunition for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) will, in particular, create a notable gap at the operational level on the battlefield. Additionally, if the US denies access to the Starlink satellite system, which is now heavily integrated into Ukraine’s military communications and command and control, Kyiv’s advantage in drone warfare would be severely threatened.
Patriot interceptor shortages will significantly increase the risk of a rapid deterioration in Ukraine’s air defence network, increasing the impact of Russian long-range strikes. The Patriot system is Ukraine’s only anti-ballistic missile defence system and has been used to good effect to protect Ukrainian cities from high-intensity Russian missile attacks. If Ukraine can no longer source Patriot interceptors at scale, its ability to intercept ballistic missiles (as well as various cruise missile types) will be significantly reduced. This will only increase the lethality and effectiveness of Russian long-range strikes, including against energy infrastructure. With the US Agency for International Development (USAID) also suspending its initiative to help restore Ukraine’s energy grid, the impact of Russian long-range strikes is therefore set to intensify.
Whether these shortages materialise ultimately remains dependent upon whether the US allows its European allies to purchase these systems for transfer to Ukraine, or whether it intends to cease any and all US military supplies to Ukraine – even indirectly. In the case of the latter, Ukraine’s military capabilities and air defence capacity would be severely impacted, given that Europe does not produce such sophisticated systems. This would increase the likelihood of more significant Russian battlefield advances. If Ukraine faces a severe shortage of air defence interceptors in the medium term, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) would be able to make greater use of its strike aircraft to attack positions closer to the frontline, as well as strategic targets across Ukraine.
A senior US administration official stated that the suspension is not a permanent termination of aid and is likely designed to pressure Kyiv into agreeing to talks sooner, as well as possibly to sign a mineral deal. The US has underscored that its top priority remains ending the war quickly (while advancing US commercial interests). The recent breakdown in relations between Trump and Zelensky has led the White House to perceive that Zelensky is not interested in ending the war. However, Kyiv has reiterated that it wants to end the war, but only with sufficient security guarantees that prevent the conflict reigniting at a later date. The US will likely attempt to use the suspension of aid to force Kyiv to the negotiating table later this year. If Ukraine’s military stockpiles begin to run dry in the summer months without a significant expansion of European support, we assess that its ability to resist US-brokered peace terms will likely decrease markedly.
Mar 03.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
• KURSK: Russian forces are attempting to flank Ukrainian forces in Kursk oblast (Russia), and are seemingly operating inside Sumy oblast (Ukraine) to the west of the Kursk salient
• STRIKES: On 1 March, Russia struck a Panama-flagged container ship shortly after it berthed in Odesa oblast, underscoring the threat to maritime vessels, particularly those perceived to carry European military aid
• AID: US President Donald Trump will reportedly meet with top national security aides on 3 March to consider suspending military aid to Ukraine after a public clash with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
• FORECAST: The public clash between Trump and Zelensky has severely strained US-Ukraine ties and threatened a mineral deal; it came shortly before a European summit announced a four-point security plan aimed at facilitating a lasting peace deal
• BAKHMUT: Ukrainian forces staged a number of counter-attacks in and around Toretsk; they are fiercely contesting areas increasingly close to the town centre in an operation that is preventing Russian forces from consolidating control of the town. Geolocated footage published on 28 February and 1 and 2 March indicated Ukrainian advances in northern and central Toretsk, with Ukrainian forces now confirmed to be operating near a building on Druzhby Street in central Toretsk. Russian sources claimed on 1 March that Ukrainian forces have a quantitative advantage in drones in Toretsk, which they are exploiting to push the Russians back. It is likely that significant areas of Toretsk are currently contested ‘grey zones’.
• BAKHMUT: Geolocated footage from 26 February also indicates that Ukrainian forces are expanding their positions between Toretsk and Shcherbynivka, and have advanced into the south-western sector of Toretsk. This is the first time Ukrainian forces have been confirmed as operating in this part of the town for weeks; it would indicate that Ukrainian efforts to counter-attack and to prevent Russian forces from consolidating control of the town are bearing fruit.
• DONETSK: In the Pokrovsk sector, Russian forces have made gains amid continued efforts to retake positions lost to Ukrainian troops. Geolocated footage from 27 February indicates that Russian forces recently advanced within central Pishchane and seized Zaporizhzhia (not to be confused with the city); both settlements are located to the south-west of Pokrovsk. On 3 March, DeepState, a Ukrainian OSINT group, confirmed fresh Russian advances in the Pishchane area. Over the past few weeks, Ukrainian forces have succeeded in making tactical gains to the south-west of Pokrovsk, as well as in Pishchane and Kotlyne (located to the west of Pokrovsk). As such, the latest Russian advances clearly underscore the Russian command’s efforts to retake lost positions and to apply more pressure on Pokrovsk’s flanks. Further south, to the west of Kurakhove, Russian forces made confirmed advances to the north of Andriivka amid continued offensive operations in this direction.
• KHARKIV: Nothing significant to report
• KURSK: Russian forces are intensifying offensive operations in Kursk oblast (Russia) alongside efforts to cut off Ukrainian logistical supplies via recent incursions into Sumy oblast (Ukraine). On 28 February, Ukraine’s General Staff reported a Russian cross-border attack in Sumy near the village of Novenke on 25 February. Over the past few days, Russian forces have continued to claim that they are operating in northern Sumy. Notably, on 2 March, Russian milbloggers claimed the capture of Zhuravka and advances towards Novenke. DeepState reported that Novenke remains a contested area. Novenke is located just across the border, approximately 25 miles (40km) to the north of Sumy city. Russian operations are highly likely aimed at cutting off Ukrainian forces in the Kursk salient from their logistical routes. A State Border Guard spokesperson, Andrii Demchenko, stated on 3 March that Ukrainian forces are attempting to stop Russia from expanding its operations in the region. In addition to threatening crucial logistical supply routes, the Russian incursion will likely force Kyiv to commit a significant number of troops, especially if Moscow succeeds in expanding its presence in the area.
• KURSK: Russia’s incursion into Sumy comes amid an overall intensification of its operations in the Kursk salient. On 2 March, the Ukrainian General Staff acknowledged that the Kursk salient has become the most intense hotspot along the frontline. This likely reflects Moscow’s attempt to accelerate efforts to push back Ukrainian forces from the area. Such efforts are highly likely linked to ongoing talks with the US over ending the war. Retaking territory in Kursk would ultimately weaken Ukraine’s bargaining position in future peace negotiations. We assess that the success of Russia’s operations will in part depend on Russia’s ability to expand its presence in Sumy while continuing to sustain pressure on Ukrainian defensive positions in the Kursk salient.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
• SOUTHERN: Russian forces are advancing further to the north-west of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast), consolidating their control along the Mokri Yaly River. Geolocated footage published on 28 February indicates Russian advances to the east and south of Burlatske, located around five miles (8km) to the north-west of Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian sources reported on 1 March that Russian forces are now in control of the settlement, which we assess is likely the case. Meanwhile, geolocated footage from 1 March also indicated that Russian forces have advanced towards Pryvilne (located to the south-west of Burlatske), though we cannot confirm whether they have taken the settlement, as Russian sources claim.
• STRIKES: Over the past few days, Russian long-range attacks have only involved drones (launched in varying numbers). These attacks have typically targeted multiple Ukrainian regions and urban centres, causing damage to various types of infrastructure (as well as casualties).
• STRIKES: Meanwhile, on 1 March, Russia struck a Panama-flagged container ship with two Iskander-M ballistic missiles shortly after it berthed in Odesa oblast (Ukraine). Pro-Kremlin Russian Telegram channels claimed that the vessel was loaded with drones and weaponry collected from a NATO base in Turkey. However, the Ukrainian authorities deny these claims, stating that the vessel was carrying civilian cargo. That said, the latest attack occurred shortly before the UK announced a USD 2 bn military aid package for Ukraine on 2 March. The package will allow Kyiv to purchase approximately 5,000 short-range air defence missiles, which will be manufactured by Thales. Ultimately, the strike illustrates that Russian attacks continue to pose persistent and elevated security threats to cargo vessels near Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.
• STRIKES: Although we cannot confirm whether the cargo vessel was carrying military equipment, we assess that Russia likely remains determined to target European military supplies transiting through Ukrainian territory. Such attacks aim to disrupt Kyiv’s access to crucial military hardware, with strikes also possible against logistical nodes in western Ukraine, where foreign military equipment is received before being dispatched to the frontline. Other possible targets include ports, like those in Odesa. Such attacks would also be part of Moscow’s strategy to deter European states from further supporting Kyiv’s war efforts; growing European efforts to back Ukraine will raise the likelihood of strikes against European shipments in a bid to deter such support.
• STRIKES: Separately, earlier on 3 March, Russia launched an Iskandr-M ballistic missile attack against a Ukrainian training facility in Dnipropetrovsk oblast (Ukraine); the Ukrainian authorities reported several casualties.
• STRIKES: We assess that, in the coming weeks and months, the risk of very large-scale Russian strikes will remain elevated amid Moscow’s continued efforts to expand its striking capabilities. On 3 March, Ukrainian Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitskyi stated that Moscow is planning to launch massive drone attacks, potentially using up to 500 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in a single strike. Skibitskyi noted that Russia has been steadily increasing its drone production capacity to sustain such large-scale attacks. In recent months, we have already observed that Russia has, on average, been launching more than 100 UAVs daily. Ukraine enjoys a high interception rate of UAVs, with numerous drones reported as lost. However, Russia will compensate for the drones’ lower success rate and accuracy by significantly increasing the overall number of UAVs used in its strikes. This strategy will allow Russia to continue inflicting significant damage while straining Ukrainian air defences with cost-effective UAVs. In addition, this reduces the likelihood of a temporary partial ceasefire (see FORECAST 
• STRIKES: At the same time, we assess that Russia will likely intensify its missile strikes (which have been lower compared to the same period in 2024) in the short-to-medium term. This would highly likely form part of Moscow’s strategy to undermine Ukraine’s willingness to continue the war in the coming months.
• STRIKES: Meanwhile, on 3 March, a Ukrainian drone struck one of Russia’s largest oil refineries in the Republic of Bashkortostan, located 932 miles (1,500 km) from the Ukrainian border. Over the past few days, Ukraine has also carried out successful strikes against Russian military assets in occupied territories. Notably, overnight on 27–28 February, Ukrainian forces struck a depot containing thermobaric artillery ammunition in Donetsk. Ukrainian forces also targeted a forward command post in Kherson oblast and a drone control point in Zaporizhzhia oblast.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• AID: US President Donald Trump will reportedly meet with his top national security aides later today (3 March) to consider suspending or cancelling military aid to Ukraine after a clash with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The New York Times reported the matter on 2 March, citing an unspecified Trump administration official. The cancellation reportedly includes the final shipments of ammunition and equipment which the administration of the former US president, Joe Biden, authorised and funded. While we cannot verify this, the Washington Post published a similar report, adding that the decision would apply to radars, vehicles, ammunition and missiles worth bns of USD awaiting shipment to Ukraine through presidential drawdown authority.
• AID: The growing possibility of the end of indirect military assistance such as intelligence sharing and training for Ukrainian troops and pilots also highlights the uncertain future of US military aid to Ukraine. We previously assessed that a significant decline in US military support to Kyiv was likely following Trump’s inauguration. Nevertheless, reports suggest that personality clashes have jeopardised the provision of continued assistance, which would constrain Ukraine’s ability to conduct military operations both in terms of material and logistical capabilities. That said, there is a realistic possibility that the Trump administration will leverage the possibility of aid suspensions or cancellations to influence Zelensky’s actions. For further analysis, see FORECAST below.
• AID: Meanwhile, a US Agency for International Development (USAID) initiative aimed at helping to restore Ukraine’s energy grid was recently terminated. Its termination was finalised prior to Zelensky’s visit to Washington DC last week, according to a report on 28 February from NBC. Ultimately, the end of the initiative will highly likely encourage Russia to intensify long-range attacks against Ukraine’s already-strained energy infrastructure over the coming days and weeks. In turn, this will drive energy security and operational disruption risks for entities operating in Ukraine.
FORECAST
NEGOTIATIONS: On 28 February, a mineral deal between Ukraine and the US collapsed following a clash between their respective presidents, Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump. According to an unspecified senior US official, Trump has not ruled out an agreement on the matter in the future, but not until Kyiv is ready to have a ‘constructive conversation’. We assess that the public spat between Zelensky and Trump has considerably limited the prospect of a deal being reached in the near term, despite Kyiv reiterating its own interest in reaching an agreement.
In the context of US ambitions to end the war in the coming months, the recent public argument will highly likely further deteriorate relations between Trump and Zelensky. After the altercation, Trump stated that he had concluded that Zelensky is not ready for peace as long as the US remains involved. According to Trump, Zelensky perceives that Washington DC’s backing gives him a big advantage in negotiations. As such, the argument will likely undermine Ukrainian hopes of continued US military support in both the near and long terms, as well as security guarantees for the post-war period (which are vital to Ukrainian interests and would severely lower the likelihood of a resumption of fighting at a later date).
Russia has consistently attempted to portray Ukraine (and Zelensky specifically) as the party that does not want peace. Moscow will highly likely leverage the Trump-Zelensky spat in discussions with US officials in the coming days and weeks on ending the war. Reports emerged earlier on 3 March that a summit between Trump and his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, is being accelerated. Meanwhile, Moscow also reportedly anticipates that talks aimed at rebuilding bilateral relations with Washington DC will continue (or even intensify) in the weeks ahead. Ultimately, the recent spat (and possible further clashes) between Zelensky and Trump will increase the likelihood of Russia and the US concluding a ‘peace’ deal which attempts to impose unfavourable peace terms on Ukraine.
Nevertheless, the incident has spurred European countries to rally around Zelensky and to advocate for the continent to adopt its own security approach, amid efforts to prevent a trans-Atlantic split over Ukraine. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has been at the forefront of such efforts; Starmer hosted 18 leaders on 2 March in London (UK) to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine. Starmer stated that Ukraine must first be put in the strongest possible position ahead of negotiations to end the war. He also opposed a weak settlement that Russia could violate in the future. Starmer stated that Europe must do the ‘heavy lifting’ in protecting Ukraine’s security in the post-war period, but noted that backing from the US is essential – despite the fact that the Trump administration has indicated its unwillingness to be involved. Ultimately, such comments likely reflect Ukraine’s European allies’ recognition of their own limitations as security partners and hopes that a trans-Atlantic split can be avoided, given their continued reliance on US military infrastructure and support.
The argument between Trump and Zelensky has increased trans-Atlantic divisions and reinforced European thinking on the need to take a more assertive posture with limited US involvement. Starmer presented a four-point plan after the summit to help Ukraine:
• To keep military aid flowing to Ukraine for as long as the war lasts, while maintaining economic pressure on Russia
• To ensure Ukraine is at the negotiating table for any peace deal, which must guarantee Ukraine’s sovereignty and security
• To ensure that European leaders aim to ‘deter’ any future invasion of Ukraine in the event of a peace deal
• To create a ‘coalition of the willing’ to defend Ukraine and guarantee peace
Starmer specified that under the auspices of a ‘coalition of the willing’ aimed at defending (and effectively ensuring) a peace deal in Ukraine, the UK is prepared to support this initiative with boots on the ground and ‘planes in the air’. While Starmer offered limited details on this matter, key European allies of Ukraine (including France) will likely seek to encourage as many states as possible to contribute what they can to European and Ukrainian security amid the growing likelihood of a full trans-Atlantic split.
While the developments confirm that a ‘coalition of the willing’ is now being openly discussed and debated among European allies, the likelihood of a peacekeeping force remains highly uncertain given Russia’s likely opposition. A deployment of UK- or French-led troops (even not under the auspices of NATO) would be entirely contrary to Russia’s war objectives in Ukraine – which ostensibly seeks to push NATO back in Europe, not to facilitate forward deployments to territory which Russia considers to be within its sphere of influence, or near territory it possibly seeks to occupy in the future. Nevertheless, a ‘coalition of the willing’ will possibly still play a role in security guarantees to Ukraine, potentially by deploying to Poland with a rapid response option to deploy to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire violation. A small contingent of ‘tripwire’ forces in or around Kyiv also remains possible. Nevertheless, a lack of willingness from the US to support European peacekeeping (or peace enforcement) operations (including via air cover) will reduce the likelihood of any such deployments over the short-to-medium term, given the limited European military capabilities needed to sustain a large forward presence.
Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron claimed on 2 March that he and Starmer are working on a plan to reach a partial one-month truce in Ukraine. Macron stated that the partial ceasefire would call for a cessation of hostile operations in the air and at sea, including an end to strikes against energy infrastructure. He underscored that the frontlines would not be covered by this partial ceasefire, as this would be too difficult to monitor. That said, UK officials have denied that any such proposal had been agreed upon in London and that there is, as yet, no agreement on the timing of a potential ceasefire.
Nonetheless, we assess that the prospect of Russia agreeing to a one-month partial truce is unlikely in the short term. The US has recently suspended aid to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure (see AID above), which will likely only incentivise Russia to continue long-range strikes and to inflict longer-term damage on Ukraine’s energy system, the reparation of which will now be all the more challenging without US support. Ultimately, and amid the growing prospects of a trans-Atlantic split, Moscow is highly unlikely to perceive any advantage to agreeing to a European-brokered partial ceasefire deal precisely at a time when Russia is hoping its long-range strikes and ground operations will improve its own negotiating position.  (Source: Sibylline)

06 Mar 06. Hegseth, U.K. Counterpart Discuss Working Toward Peace in Ukraine. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth hosted British Defense Secretary John Healey today for a bilateral engagement at the Pentagon, where they discussed the increased role that Britain and other NATO countries are taking toward securing peace in Ukraine.
“We are in the middle of a dynamic security environment where, , President Trump is calling on our European allies to take the lead, and you have done just that, sir,” Hegseth told Healey.
“U.K. leadership is absolutely critical, and we very much appreciate it,” he added.
As an example of that leadership, Hegseth pointed out that last month, Healey, for the first time, chaired the gathering of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group — a multinational coalition that meets regularly to discuss Ukraine’s security needs.
It was at that meeting of the UDCG where Hegseth first called on European nations to “meet the moment” and begin viewing the safeguarding of their own continent as an “imperative.”
“We want to work together to achieve peace and security in Europe by working to bring an end to the war in Ukraine, building sustainable deterrence on the continent, and then increasing our allied capabilities and interoperability,” Hegseth said.
He added that European leadership of NATO, led by the U.K. and others, is the future of defense on the continent.
Noting that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced last week the largest increase in defense spending since the Cold War, Healey said the U.K. will continue to be a leader in European defense.
“You challenged us to step up in Ukraine, on defense spending on European security, and I say to you that we have, we are, and we will further,” Healey told Hegseth.
“I’m here today to strengthen that defense and security bond between our two nations. It’s needed now more than ever in this new era that we must face together,” he added.
During a brief Q&A following opening remarks, when asked whether the U.S. has permanently ended resupplying Ukraine with weapons, Hegseth reiterated that the program is only “on pause” pending a true commitment to a path to peace.
“The president is precisely what the Ukrainians are saying and doing about committing to that peace process, and we’re very encouraged by the signs we’re seeing,” he said.
Hegseth also pushed back on the suggestion that the U.S. is “voicing the same narrative” as Russia regarding the war in Ukraine.
“Our president is interested in peace,” Hegseth said, adding that the president was elected — in part — to put an end to the conflict in Ukraine and that he is working with both Russia and Ukraine to do just that.
“And I can tell you, from being behind the scenes, “that is laser-focused on making that happen,” he continued. “And we’re closer today than we’ve ever been because of his leadership.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

06 Mar 25. EU leaders agree on defence surge, support Zelenskiy after US aid freeze. (Source: FT.com)

06 Mar 25. Sir Keir Starmer has assembled around 20 countries interested in forming a “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine after any ceasefire. (Source: FT.com)

06 Mar 25. Ukrainian Troops Use Beehives as Improvised Grenades Against Russian Forces in Donetsk Region. As the Russia-Ukraine war continues, Kyiv’s soldiers have resorted to a unique strategy after exhausting their weapons in the fight against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military.
A Ukrainian assault unit recently reported using beehives against Russian troops in the Donetsk region.
In a post on Telegram, the 225th Separate Assault Regiment explained that while clearing a building near Pokrovsk, its soldiers discovered a basement occupied by Russian forces. With no grenades remaining, they turned to an unconventional tactic – dropping two beehives into the enemy’s position.
Footage shared by the unit shows two Ukrainian soldiers carrying a wooden beehive across a battle-scarred landscape before dropping it into a basement believed to be occupied by Russian troops. As seen in the video, the enemy forces did not re-emerge after the hive was thrown.
The regiment’s post acknowledged the unconventional nature of the attack, saying: “Perhaps this does not meet NATO standards.”
The remark appeared to reference recent diplomatic tensions following Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Oval Office meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, during which Zelenskyy was criticized for his casual attire.
The post continued, “But it’s 2025, and Russia is still trying to destroy us, sparing neither the lives of its own citizens nor its resources – and it certainly has no intention of stopping.”
The Ukrainian military has earned a reputation for battlefield improvisation, pioneering the use of drones in combat. However, this appears to be the first recorded instance of Ukrainian troops weaponizing insects against Russian forces.
While unusual in modern warfare, beehives have been used in the past as makeshift weapons.
Ancient armies, including the Romans and Dacians, launched hives at enemy formations to sow chaos.
During the Third Crusade, Richard the Lionheart is said to have used beehives as projectile weapons against Saracen forces. Even in naval battles, pirates in the Mediterranean once deployed hives to force enemy crews to abandon their ships.
Besides the use of beehives, Ukrainian forces have also experimented with 3D-printed munitions and naval drones. The conflict has also forced Russian forces to adapt, with reports indicating that captured Russian tanks contain semiconductors salvaged from household appliances like dishwashers and refrigerators. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

06 Mar 25. Swedish government proposes to contribute fighter jets to NATO in Poland. NATO’s newest member Sweden plans to contribute up to eight Jas Gripen fighter jets to the defence alliance’s air policing in Poland, Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard said on Thursday.Stenergard said a day before the one-year anniversary of Sweden’s accession that its government proposes to participate in NATO air policing, and the protection of logistics operations for support to Ukraine, in Poland.
“We propose that Sweden contribute a maximum of eight JAS Gripen with associated personnel, including combat command and support units,” she told a press conference.
“In addition, the government proposes that Sweden contribute air and maritime surveillance capabilities and airborne transport capabilities,” she added.
It would be the first time Sweden contributes fighter jets to NATO operations stationed in a country other than Sweden.
Sweden joined NATO on March 7, 2024 as a result of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (Source: Google/Reuters)

06 Mar 25. Advanced attack drones for Ukraine in new deal struck by UK government and Anduril UK. Ukraine’s armed forces will be backed by more advanced attack drones to tackle Russian aggression in the Black Sea, following a deal struck by the UK government and an Anglo-American defence tech company.
* The deal with Anduril UK has been agreed ahead of the Defence Secretary’s meeting with his US counterpart Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon today.
* During his visit to Washington D.C., John Healey MP met with staff at Anduril’s facility.
* The UK continues to work with allies to put Ukraine in the strongest position for peace as it continues to defend itself against Russian aggression.
Defence Secretary John Healey MP visited Anduril, the firm supplying the drones, in Washington D.C. ahead of a meeting with his US counterpart Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon today. The deal follows a meeting of world leaders in London last week, when the Prime Minister and allies agreed it was essential that military support continues for Ukraine to put the country in the strongest possible position for peace as it continues to defend itself from Russian aggression. The new contracts, totalling nearly £30m and backed by the International Fund for Ukraine, will result in Anduril UK supplying cutting-edge Altius 600m and Altius 700m drones – known as loitering munitions – that are designed to monitor an area before striking targets that enter it. The Defence Secretary visited Anduril yesterday, where he spoke with a number of American and British staff. Founded in California, Anduril continues to invest significantly in the UK with a large footprint across the country and plans to rapidly scale, in line with the Government’s commitment to keeping the nation safe while providing highly skilled jobs. Securing a lasting peace in Ukraine and strengthening bonds between NATO allies set to top the agenda when the Defence Secretary meets with his US counterpart today. The visit follows Prime Minister Keir Starmer meeting the US President last week, and John Healey MP will hail the unparalleled depth of the UK’s special relationship with the US – the UK’s closest security ally – as both nations continue to collaborate to bolster security and support economic growth. The meeting follows the recent decision by the UK Government to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by April 2027 – the biggest sustained uplift since the Cold War. National security is a foundation of our Plan for Change, and the Prime Minister and Defence Secretary have said that Europe needs to take a greater responsibility for its security, and that defence can be an engine for economic growth.
Defence Secretary, John Healey MP, said: “We are determined to achieve a secure, lasting peace in Ukraine, which means putting Ukraine in the strongest possible position to prevent any return to Russian aggression.
The UK has already provided more than 10,000 drones to Ukraine’s Armed Forces, which have proved vital in disrupting Russian troop advances and targeting positions behind the frontline.”
With a £2.26bn loan from seized Russian assets, plus £1.6bn worth of air defence missiles announced for Ukraine in the last week, the UK is continuing to show leadership in securing a lasting peace for Ukraine.
The work with Anduril UK been led by Defence Equipment & Support – the procurement arm of the MOD – on behalf of the UK-administered International Fund for Ukraine (IFU). The fund now stands at more than £1.3bn worth of pledges from 10 other countries, of which the UK has contributed £500m.
Ukraine’s armed forces will take delivery of the drones, launchers and spare parts over the coming months.
Dr Rich Drake, MD of Anduril UK and Europe said: “Anduril UK is proud to partner with the UK Government, working hand in glove to deliver vital capabilities for the UK and its Allies. Our focus on developing and deploying technology where and when it’s needed is at the core of everything we do – from the rapid delivery of Altius to Ukraine to the expansion of our presence here in the UK. We look forward to strengthening our partnership with the Ministry of Defence to protect our nation and our allies.”

In January, it was announced that 30,000 drones will be sent to Ukraine by the international Drone Capability Coalition, co-led by the UK and Latvia. Since July 2024, the Government has provided over £5.26bn in military aid and financial support to Ukraine, including a £3bn annual military aid and a £2.26bn loan for military spending. The British and US Armed Forces operate in close alignment around the world, from the long-standing global coalition to combat Daesh in the Middle East to joint maritime security patrols in the Indo-Pacific. The Defence Secretary’s visit to Washington D.C. comes as the UK receives the last of an order of 50 of the latest generation AH-64E attack helicopters for the British Army, the most advanced attack helicopter in the world. The helicopter was handed over this week at the Boeing site in Arizona under a programme that supports more than 300 UK jobs, helping to grow the UK economy – underscoring defence as an engine for driving economic growth. The visit also comes at the conclusion of the 50th occurrence of Exercise Red Flag in Nevada, a joint exercise with the UK, United States and Australia. The training is designed to test equally matched air forces in a realistic combat scenario and involves more than 3,000 military personnel in high-intensity training, such as dogfighting, air-policing and practicing bombing runs, at Nellis Air Force Base. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

05 Mar 25. The US has cut off intelligence sharing with Kyiv in a move that could seriously hamper the Ukrainian military’s ability to target Russian forces.  (Source: FT.com)

05 Mar 25. There will be no let-up in the UK’s support to Ukraine: UK statement to the OSCE.
The UK sets out plan agreed with leaders in London on 2 March to work with Ukraine and the United States on a strong, just and durable peace.
Thank you, Mr Chair. On Sunday 2 March, the UK hosted in London leaders from various European countries and Canada, the NATO Secretary General and the Presidents of the EU Commission and the EU Council to discuss our support for Ukraine.
Together we reaffirmed our determination to work for a permanent peace in Ukraine, in partnership with the United States.
The UK Prime Minister made clear that we must not repeat the mistakes of the past when weak deals allowed President Putin to invade again. The UK, France and our international partners will work closely with Ukraine on a plan to stop the fighting. And we will work directly with the United States on a strong, just and lasting peace that ensures Ukraine’s sovereignty and security.
The plan agreed with leaders in London has four clear principles.
First, we must keep military aid flowing and keep increasing the economic pressure on Russia. To that end, we are doubling down on military aid. At the weekend the UK agreed a new £2.2bn loan for Ukraine, backed by profits from frozen Russian assets.
Second, we agreed that any lasting peace must guarantee Ukraine’s sovereignty and security – and that Ukraine must be at the table when negotiating their future.
Third, in the event of a peace deal, we would continue boosting Ukraine’s own defensive capabilities to deter any future invasion.
And lastly, we will develop a “coalition of the willing” to defend a deal in Ukraine and to guarantee the peace. Those willing to contribute will intensify planning now.
Mr Chair, Ukraine has been clear that it wants to reach a durable peace as soon as possible. This can happen only if we continue to show strength and provide Ukraine with the support it needs to defend itself against continued Russian aggression. There will be no let-up in the UK’s support, which we will continue for as long as it is necessary. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

05 Mar 25. GAD’s repayments analysis of the Ukraine loan. GAD advised HM Treasury on the interest rate to be charged on the UK’s £2.26bn loan to Ukraine and we estimated the loan’s repayment schedule.
We analysed and advised HM Treasury on the options around setting an interest rate on UK’s loan to Ukraine and estimated the repayment schedule of the loan. The Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Ukraine’s Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko signed the UK-Ukraine Bilateral agreement at the beginning of March.
GAD assessed financial considerations for setting an interest rate on the loan of £2.26bn to Ukraine. It will be paid back using the extraordinary profits generated on sanctioned Russian sovereign assets held in the EU.
This is the UK’s contribution to the G7 Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) Loans to Ukraine scheme, through which G7 countries will collectively provide $50bn to support Ukraine.
Repaying the loan
The loan is unusual in that its repayments will be drawn from a future income stream derived from the profits on frozen sovereign Russian assets. This means that careful consideration of the potential income stream of these assets had to be considered in our calculations.
Our analysis and supporting assumptions formed the basis of our advice to HM Treasury around the level and structure of the interest rate on the loan. We also advised on the expected repayment schedule from the loan and its sensitivity to various assumptions.
UK commitment
Deputy Government Actuary Matt Gurden said: “The work we undertook to advise on the interest rate played a key part in ensuring the suitability of the UK government’s loan contribution to Ukraine.”
The funding will be delivered in 3 equal annual payments of £752m. The announcement of the loan agreement is on top of the £3bn a year commitment by the UK to provide military aid for Ukraine.
(Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

05 Mar 25. Cuashub.com said today that Drone war wages on as Trump halts US aid to Ukraine. As U.S. President Donald Trump suspends military aid to Ukraine, the drone war between Ukraine and Russia has intensified, reaching deep into both nations’ territories. The conflict has increasingly turned into a long-range battle targeting critical infrastructure, with recent strikes by Ukraine seeking to exploit a lack of air defenses at several Russian energy facilities.
Ukrainian drones strike deep into Russia
In the early hours of March 3, a series of explosions rocked the city of Ufa, Russia, following drone strike on the the Orgsintez oil refinery, a facility located approximately 1,400 kilometers from Ukraine. The drone strike was confirmed by Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, although he did not confirm Ukraine’s involvement.
The attack resulted in a massive fire and extensive damage to the refinery’s infrastructure. Two vertical steel tanks and major feedstock pipelines were severely impacted, with reports indicating that a third tank may have also detonated. Despite the scale of the destruction, Russian officials have yet to provide a comprehensive statement on the situation.
However, Russia’s Emergencies Ministry confirmed that fire crews managed to contain the blaze, asserting that there was no immediate threat to local residents. NASA’s FIRMS service, which monitors fires worldwide, recorded the event, further verifying the scale of the attack.
The strike on Ufa marks one of the deepest incursions by Ukrainian drones into Russian territory to date, demonstrating Kyiv’s increasing ability to strike at Russia’s energy sector, a key pillar of its wartime economy.
RELATED CONTENT: Ukraine steps up drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure
Russia responds with strikes on Odesa
Just a day later, on March 4, Russia responded with its own drone assault, targeting critical energy infrastructure in Odesa, a major port city on Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. The attack, which Ukrainian officials attributed to Iranian-made Shahed drones, resulted in widespread power outages and left four civilians injured.
According to Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper, the assault damaged key energy facilities, leading to blackouts across parts of the city. Odesa Mayor Hennady Trukhanov confirmed that three boiler plants were disabled, raising concerns over the availability of heating for residents. This attack follows a pattern of continued Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy sector, aiming to disrupt the country’s resilience as the war drags on.
Earlier, on March 1, a Russian ballistic missile had struck the Odesa port, damaging infrastructure and a Panamanian-flagged civilian ship.
The Strategic Implications of Trump’s Aid Freeze
With President Trump suspending U.S. military aid to Ukraine, Kyiv faces uncertainty in its ability to sustain operations against Russian forces. However, European allies have stepped up their support in response, pledging to increase both military assistance which will help to fill the gap left by Washington’s withdrawal.
It remains to be seen whether this increased European backing will be enough to offset the loss of U.S. aid. Ukraine has put Western-supplied weaponry to good use throughout the war, particularly air defense systems, with Ukraine reportedly succeeding in shooting down the vast majority of Russian drones in almost daily strikes.
https://cuashub.com/en/content/drone-war-wages-on-as-trump-halts-us-aid-to-ukraine/ (Source: https://cuashub.com/)

05 Mar 25. UK defence secretary John Healey will travel to meet Pete Hegseth in Washington on Wednesday to discuss the “parameters” of a European plan.  (Source: FT.com)

04 Mar 25. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine remains committed to signing a minerals deal with the US “at any time and in any convenient format”.  (Source: FT.com)

04 Mar 25. Eutelsat said it was in talks with European governments about providing additional satellite connectivity in Ukraine, as investors bet that the French satellite operator could replace Elon Musk’s Starlink in the country. (Source: FT.com)

04 Mar 25. The US is suspending military aid to Ukraine as Donald Trump seeks to increase pressure on VZelenskyy to make concessions.  (Source: FT.com)

02 Mar 25. Russia Begins Deploying Orion Inokhodets Drones to Counter Attacks by Unmanned Surface Vessels. According to information published by Russian media on March 2, 2025, the Russian Navy has begun utilizing the Orion UAV system, also known as Inokhodets, for reconnaissance and strike missions to protect its anchored warships. The system is specifically designed to patrol surrounding waters and defend against threats such as unmanned surface vessels (USVs), which have become a growing concern for naval security. Traditionally, helicopters were tasked with securing naval vessels at anchor. Still, with the installation of air defense systems on Russian warships, the need for more advanced, autonomous systems like the Inokhodets became increasingly apparent.
Recent reports have highlighted the operational use of the Inokhodets drone, which demonstrated its capability to engage and destroy a kamikaze-style boat approaching a naval target using precision-guided munitions. This reinforces the increasing importance of unmanned aerial systems in modern naval defense, offering a more efficient, cost-effective, and flexible alternative to traditional manned aircraft. The Inokhodets can operate autonomously or under remote control, enabling continuous surveillance of key maritime zones without depleting valuable aviation resources. This capability allows piloted aircraft to be allocated to other critical missions, optimizing overall operational efficiency.
The Inokhodets is equipped with advanced reconnaissance and strike capabilities, making it an ideal choice for the Russian Navy’s evolving defense needs. A key feature of its weapons control system is the integration of the Kh-UAV multi-purpose tactical missile. This missile system was developed by the Tula Instrument Design Bureau and is based on the highly successful 9M133FM-3 missile from the Kornet-D anti-tank guided missile system, as well as the 9M133M-2 missile used for anti-tank warfare. These precision-guided munitions provide the Inokhodets with the capability to engage both air and surface targets effectively, making it a versatile asset in modern naval combat.
The Inokhodets UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) system, also known as the Orion in its export version, was first unveiled to the public in 2018. The drone was developed by the Kronshtadt Company to meet the growing demand for a UAV capable of both reconnaissance and strike missions. This versatile system was designed to serve multiple military branches, including the Russian Army and Navy, offering modularity to integrate different payloads depending on the mission requirements. Over the years, it has undergone extensive testing and refinement, proving its operational capabilities in various combat and reconnaissance scenarios.
By late 2020, the Inokhodets was officially incorporated into the Russian Armed Forces, including its naval units. Its entry into service marked a significant milestone in Russia’s development of unmanned systems and expanded the tactical capabilities of the Russian military. The system was specifically designed to provide surveillance over vast areas and protect strategic assets from a variety of threats.
The integration of the Inokhodets into naval operations has proven particularly beneficial for the Russian Navy, as it provides a flexible, low-cost solution for patrolling maritime zones. Unlike traditional manned aircraft, which require significant operational resources and pose risks to personnel, drones like the Inokhodets can operate autonomously for extended periods, conducting continuous surveillance with minimal human intervention. This is particularly advantageous in protecting naval assets from increasingly sophisticated threats such as USVs, which can pose a serious risk to warships in port or anchored at sea.
The Inokhodets is equipped with several key features that enhance its effectiveness as a reconnaissance and strike platform. The drone is fitted with high-resolution electro-optical and infrared cameras, which provide real-time intelligence for operators. Its long endurance and substantial operational range allow it to cover large maritime areas and maintain surveillance for extended periods, providing persistent coverage of sensitive zones such as naval bases or critical chokepoints. Its ability to operate discreetly, thanks to a relatively low radar profile, makes it suitable for a variety of anti-surface and anti-submarine warfare roles.
The drone is capable of carrying out both autonomous and remotely controlled missions, with pre-programmed flight paths and real-time adjustments. This allows for a high degree of flexibility, making the Inokhodets useful in dynamic combat environments, where swift decision-making is required.
The Inokhodets’ integration into the Russian Navy’s defense infrastructure reflects a broader trend in modern military operations, where unmanned systems are increasingly deployed for high-risk, low-cost tasks. These drones provide continuous monitoring and rapid response capabilities, offering significant advantages in defending against threats in complex and contested environments. The combination of precision strike capabilities, advanced surveillance technology, and operational flexibility positions the Inokhodets as a critical asset in the Russian Navy’s evolving defense strategy.
As the Russian military continues to enhance its use of unmanned systems like the Inokhodets, the drone is expected to play an even more prominent role in defending naval assets and supporting broader security operations at sea. Its ability to operate independently or in coordination with manned aircraft and other defense systems offers a valuable force multiplier, ensuring that Russian naval forces maintain a strategic advantage in both peacetime and combat scenarios. This development is part of Russia’s ongoing efforts to modernize its military capabilities and adapt to emerging threats in a rapidly changing global security landscape. (Source: Google/https://www.armyrecognition.com/)

02 Mar 25. Historic £1.6bn deal provides thousands of air defence missiles for Ukraine and boosts UK jobs and growth. Deal will create 200 jobs in Northern Ireland and provide 5000 air defence missiles to Ukraine. 200 new jobs will be created and hundreds more supported at one of the UK’s leading defence manufacturers, after a £1.6bn deal was announced by the Prime Minister today to supply thousands of advanced air defence missiles to Ukraine. The latest measures in the UK’s support for Ukraine to achieve peace through strength, the deal will also provide a major boost to the UK economy and support 700 existing jobs at Thales in Belfast, which will manufacture more than 5,000 lightweight-multirole missiles (LMM) for Ukraine’s defence. The deal will see production of LMMs at Thales’s factory treble and will also benefit companies in the Thales Supply Chain across the UK – putting more money in working people’s pockets. It is the largest contract ever received by Thales in Belfast and the second largest MOD has placed with Thales, building on a previous contract with Thales, signed in September 2024 for 650 missiles. The first batch of missiles were delivered before Christmas, and this new contract will continue deliveries. The deal comes after the Prime Minister announced the Government’s commitment to increase spending on defence to 2.5% of GDP by April 2027 and confirmed an ambition to spend 3% of GDP on defence in the next parliament, in order to keep Britain safe and secure for generations to come. This investment will be an opportunity to translate defence spending into British growth, British jobs, British skills, and British innovation.
The deal helps deliver on the Government’s pledge in its Plan for Change to improve the lives of people in every corner of the UK by growing the economy. By spending more on defence we will deliver the national security that underpins economic growth, and unlock new jobs, skills and opportunities across the country.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “My support for Ukraine is unwavering. I am determined to find a way forward that brings an end to Russia’s illegal war and guarantees Ukraine a lasting peace based on sovereignty and security.
I am also clear that national security is economic security. As well as levelling up Ukraine’s air defence, this loan will make working people here in the UK better off, boosting our economy and supporting jobs in Northern Ireland and beyond.
By doubling down on our support, working closely with key partners, and ensuring Ukraine has a strong voice at the table, I believe we can achieve a strong, lasting deal that delivers a permanent peace in Ukraine. Defence Secretary John Healey MP said: “Three years since Putin launched his full-scale invasion, we are now at a critical moment for the future of Ukraine and the security of us all in Europe. We all want a secure and lasting peace. As today’s meeting has showed, the UK will continue to lead international efforts to support Ukraine in securing a ceasefire and durable peace. And we will not jeopardise the peace by forgetting about the war. This new support will help protect Ukraine against drone and missile attacks but it will also help deter further Russian aggression following any end to the fighting.”
This new deal delivers on the UK’s ironclad commitment to step up military support for Ukraine, whilst boosting jobs and growth at home. Today’s deal marks a historic step for industrial relations between the UK and Ukraine, building on the 100 Year Partnership signed recently by the Prime Minister and President Zelenskyy in Kyiv. The contract will enable Ukraine to draw on £3.5bn of export finance to acquire military equipment from UK companies, boosting both the UK’s and Ukraine’s defence industrial bases and support investment in further military capabilities.”
Ukraine has already put the highly capable LMM missile to use as part of its air defences where it has proven to be incredibly effective in protecting civilians and critical infrastructure from Russia’s bombardment. A £162m contract announced in September last year saw 650 LMM missiles supplied to Ukraine as an initial order to ramp up production – deliveries started in December 2024.
Thales Northern Ireland will deliver the contract – worth an initial £1.16bn with the potential for around a further £500m of work to be added – in collaboration with a Ukrainian industry partner, which will manufacture launchers and command and control vehicles for the missiles in Ukraine.
The contract has been placed by the MOD’s procurement arm Defence Equipment & Support on behalf of the Ukrainian Government, to be funded by a loan underwritten by United Kingdom Export Finance (UKEF) after a deal signed last year to allow Ukraine to draw on £3.5bn worth of support from UKEF to spend with UK industry.
As set out in the Plan for Change, national security is the first duty of the Government – and a strong economy is built on the bedrock of strong security. Increased defence spending will support highly skilled jobs and apprenticeships across the whole of the UK. Last year, defence spending supported over 430,000 jobs across the UK, the equivalent to one in every 60, and 68% of defence spending goes outside of London and the Southeast, benefitting every nation and region of the country.
Andy Start, DE&S CEO and UK National Armaments Director said: “The UK’s Defence Industry has supported Ukraine from the start of the war and this important contract underlines industry’s ability to scale up production at pace to deliver the world-class defence equipment Ukraine requires. This contract is a critical next step in the work of Task Force HIRST in developing lasting partnerships between the UK and Ukraine’s defence industries. The substantial increase in LMM production capacity will benefit both Ukraine’s fight tonight, as well as the longer-term security of the UK. The deal marks the next milestone in the work of the MOD’s Taskforce HIRST and the first of a series of “mega projects” to be delivered for Ukraine, with the HIRST team working to build long-term relationships with Ukrainian industry to restore and modernise their defence industrial base, support its future defence and economic growth.”
Earlier this month, the Defence Secretary announced a new £150m military support package to support Ukrainian troops fighting Russia on the frontline, part of the UK’s unprecedented £3 bn annual pledge to Ukraine.
The UK has committed to spending £3bn next financial year to support Ukraine, with an additional £1.5bn from interest on seized assets through the Extraordinary Revenue Accelerator – taking the total to £4.5Bn. This will ensure Ukraine can achieve peace through strength and underscoring the new 100 Year Partnership between the UK and Ukraine. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

28 Feb 25. The air defense systems manufacturer NASAMS will create a company in Ukraine — it’s about serial production of missiles. Norwegian manufacturer of air defense systems NASAMS Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace wants to create a company in Ukraine — negotiations are already underway with representatives of Ukrainian industry. The project involves mass production of missiles, that is, hundreds. This was reported by the company’s president Eirik Lie. According to him, the primary task is to increase the production of missiles for our air defense system in Ukraine using Ukrainian technology. And joint ventures are planned to be created within “a few months”. The head of the company believes that in the long term, when the war is over, Ukraine could become part of the missile supply chain for air defense systems.

“There’s a lot of innovation happening in Ukraine right now, we’ll be a part of that. It’s important for us to be there,” says Eirik Lie.

According to him, having regional production facilities gives the Norwegian company stable capacity. And the idea of production is to have multiple supply chains. And all because in Europe, in the long term, defense spending is increasing, which means that the demand for weapons will also increase. NASAMS is a mobile anti-aircraft missile system designed to combat missiles, aircraft, and other aerial targets at low and medium altitudes. (Source: Google/https://babel.ua/)———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
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