NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Mar 03.

03 Mar 25.  The Kremlin has said western unity over Ukraine is falling apart after an extraordinary spat in the White House between the US and Ukraine threatened to derail support for Kyiv against Russia’s invasion. Dmitry Peskov, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, said the spat between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy showed Ukraine’s leader “doesn’t want peace, he wants the war to continue”, according to Interfax. “The collective west has partially ceased to be collective, and the fragmentation of the collective west has begun,” Peskov told reporters, referring to European countries scrambling to find ways to support Ukraine after the Oval Office argument last Friday. Peskov said another country would have to convince the US to smooth over the fallout from the spat and “make Zelenskyy himself change his position”. (Source: FT.com)

 

03 Mar 25. Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected US calls to resign after leading Republicans called for him to step aside. The Ukrainian president told British media, including the Telegraph, that “simply replacing me will not be simple”.

“It’s not enough to just hold an election. You need to also not let me run. This will be a bit more difficult. Looks like you will have to negotiate with me,” Mr Zelensky said, before reiterating that he would step down in exchange for Nato membership.

It comes after Mike Waltz, the White House’s national security adviser, told CNN the Trump administration needed “a leader that can deal with us, eventually deal with the Russians, and end this war.”

“If it becomes apparent that President Zelensky’s either personal motivations or political motivations are divergent from ending the fighting in this country, then I think we have a real issue.”

Republican Mike Johnson, speaker of the House of Representatives, also questioned whether Mr Zelensky was fit for the job.

“Either he needs to come to his senses and come back to the table in gratitude, or someone else needs to lead the country.” (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

03 Mar 25. Britain and France are to lead a desperate European attempt to salvage peace hopes in Ukraine, with a plan to end the war that would include an initial one-month truce with Russia, covering air, sea and infrastructure. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said after a summit in London on Sunday that Europe would step in as intermediaries for Volodymyr Zelenskyy to try to “stop the fighting”, after the Ukrainian leader’s explosive row with US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office. Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are promoting a deal which they hope would see Trump provide US cover for troops from a European “coalition of the willing” deployed to secure any ceasefire in Ukraine. Starmer said Europe “must do the heavy lifting” but the “effort must have strong US backing”. New details of the European peace plan emerged after Macron told Le Figaro that he and Starmer had proposed an initial truce between Russia and Ukraine “in the air, at sea and on energy infrastructure” that would last one month. Macron added this approach would have the advantage of verifying Russia’s intentions, and would be easier than overseeing a truce on the ground along the entire front line. “In the event of a ceasefire, it would be very difficult to verify that the front is being respected,” he said. Downing Street declined to comment, but Starmer has said Britain would put its troops on the ground in the event a ceasefire was agreed. A one-month truce covering air, sea and infrastructure sites would help to establish confidence on both sides. A second key part of the European plan would involve Zelenskyy signing a proposed deal to provide the US with a share of revenues from some of Ukraine’s mineral reserves, giving Washington an economic stake in a peace settlement. Trump wanted Zelenskyy to sign the agreement in Washington last Friday. (Source: FT.com)

 

Mar 02.

 

02 Mar 25.  Chair’s Statement from the Leaders Meeting on Ukraine in London on 2 March 2025. Today, I hosted counterparts from across Europe including Türkiye, as well as the NATO Secretary General and the Presidents of the EU Commission, EU Council and Canada, in London to discuss our support for Ukraine.

02 Mar 25.  Britain and France are to lead a desperate European attempt to salvage peace hopes in Ukraine, after last week’s explosive meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Sir Keir Starmer, UK prime minister, said after a summit in London that Europe would step in as intermediaries for Zelenskyy to try to “stop the fighting” and persuade Trump to provide US cover for European troops deployed to secure any ceasefire. “The UK is prepared to back this with boots on the ground and planes in the air together with others,” he told a press conference on Sunday after a summit in London of 19 international leaders. Europe “must do the heavy lifting” but the “effort must have strong US backing”, he added. But many countries remain reluctant to commit to sending troops to Ukraine as part of a mission led by the UK and France. Germany, Spain and Poland are among those which have so far not offered to join “a coalition of the willing”.  Starmer said “a number of countries have indicated today they want to be part of the plans we are developing” but declined to name them. © Justin Tallis/Pool/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock He urged more countries to join a peacekeeping effort to persuade Trump that Europe is serious. “I feel very strongly that unless some move forward we will stay in the same position we are in,” he said. “This is not a moment for more talk. It’s a time to act, to step up and lead.” Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president, insisted the EU would step up. She said Ukraine must be turned into “a steel porcupine that is indigestible for potential invaders”. Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are leading European attempts to persuade Trump to provide a US security guarantee for any peace stabilisation force, but have so far been unsuccessful.  Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni, who also has strong relations with Trump, is seen in European capitals as another key player.  The three leaders plan to agree a blueprint for peace with Zelenskyy and then present it to the White House, in an attempt to circumvent the toxic relationship that has developed between the Ukraine president and Trump. (Source: FT.com)

 

02 Mar 25. Ukraine will work with Europe to draw up a plan to “stop the fighting” with Russia before presenting a blueprint for peace to US President Donald Trump, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on Sunday. Speaking ahead of a London summit of European leaders, Starmer said a European “coalition of the willing” — led by the UK and France — would then offer to put troops on the ground in Ukraine to defend any ceasefire. However, Starmer admitted he had not received assurances from Trump that the US would provide a military “backstop” to such a European force — a protection the UK leader insists is essential to deter Vladimir Putin from attacking Ukraine again. Starmer held talks with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Saturday and then discussed with Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron a potential way forward after Friday’s debacle in the White House, when the US president clashed with the Ukrainian leader. Starmer, speaking on the BBC, said: “We have agreed that the UK, along with France and possibly one or two others, will work with Ukraine on a plan to stop the fighting. Then we will discuss that plan with the US.” Starmer said an agreement between European leaders on a security guarantee for Ukraine would have to be led by a “coalition of the willing” when it came to providing support. “We’ve got to find those countries in Europe that are prepared to be more forward leaning, rather than move at the pace of every single member, every single country in Europe, which would in the end be a slow pace,” Starmer said. “That is not an exclusion — the more the better — but we need to move to a quicker, more agile way forward.” Starmer also said that he had taken an “important step forward” towards smoothing tensions and reaching an agreement between Trump and Zelenskyy during several phone calls with both leaders over the weekend. He added that he was certain that “President Trump wants lasting peace” and could be trusted, saying: “He clearly said he would have our backs.” “European countries have to do more and provide a security guarantee and that’s what I’m discussing with President Macron and others today . . . but I’ve always been clear that that will need a US backstop,” he said. Starmer said UK and US teams were discussing ways in which Trump could help to secure any peace deal, although the US president has always made it clear he sees that as a responsibility of European nations. (Source: FT.com)

 

01 Mar 25. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has demanded the EU begin “direct discussions with Russia on a ceasefire” in the war against Ukraine. Orban also said he opposed efforts to find any consensus on Ukraine among the bloc’s 27 member states. His demand was made in a letter to EU Council President António Costa which was sent on Saturday and has been seen by the Financial Times. The threat by the EU’s most pro-Russia leader to block any agreement comes after US President Donald Trump decided to open bilateral peace negotiations with the Kremlin, bypassing Kyiv and Europe, and Trump’s verbal assault on Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the White House on Friday. His letter comes after Brussels circulated draft conclusions for an upcoming summit of EU leaders that include additional military support to Ukraine and a rapid increase in defence spending by European capitals. Zelenskyy has been invited to attend the summit, which takes place on Thursday. “It has become evident that there are strategic differences in our approach to Ukraine that cannot be bridged by drafting or communication,” Orban wrote to Costa. Orban’s ambassador to the EU made similar points during a meeting of EU envoys in Brussels on Friday, according to people briefed on the private meeting. Senior European leaders are due to meet in London on Sunday for a hastily arranged summit hosted by UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer, in a bid to formulate proposals to collectively protect Ukraine and boost spending on defence, reducing the continent’s dependence on America. Friday’s very public disagreement between Trump and Zelenskyy underlined just how far the US has moved in recent weeks away from its previous position of sustained support for Ukraine against Russia — and the distance now between Washington and its European allies. Both Orban’s letter and his ambassador’s comments cited a UN security council resolution passed with the support of the US and Russia this week that did not refer to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and demanded a “swift end to the conflict”. European capitals abstained on the vote. “The [UN] resolution signals a new phase in the history of the conflict and renders all previous agreed language by the European Council irrelevant,” Orban wrote in the letter to Costa. (Source: FT.com)

 

Feb 28.

28 Feb 25.  Trump berates Ukrainian president, says he’s ‘not ready for peace.’

Feb 27.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• OFFENSIVES: Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has reported that Ukrainian forces have liberated over 50% of the territory Russia has occupied since the invasion
• DONETSK: Ukrainian forces are reportedly stabilising the front near the Pokrovsk sector; that said, this could realistically indicate that Russia’s offensive focus is shifting eastwards towards Kostiyantinivka (Donetsk oblast)
• DIPLOMACY: Russian and US officials met in Turkey on 27 February for a second round of talks in recent weeks; talks were focused on reopening diplomatic operations
• FORECAST: President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to sign a critical minerals deal with the US in the capital Washington DC this week amid competing efforts from Ukraine and Russia to court US extractive investment and to improve their negotiation positions
• OFFENSIVES: On 24 February, the three-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces had liberated over 50% of the territory Russia had occupied since the invasion. Syrskyi also claimed that over the course of three years of full-scale war, Russian forces have lost over 10,100 tanks, 21,100 armoured vehicles and 23,300 artillery systems. While we cannot confirm this number, the International Institute for Strategtic Studies (IISS) has estimated (drawing on confirmed vehicles destroyed only) that Russia has lost around 14,000 tanks and armoured vehicles (including infantry fighting vehicles and armoured personnel carriers).
• OFFENSIVES: Accurate equipment loss estimates are difficult to confirm, but it is clear that Russian forces have expended a disproportionate amount of its military equipment during the war; in addition, its remaining Soviet stocks of weapons are dwindling. While Russia has made numerous advances over the last six months, they have come at an increasingly high cost and it remains unlikely that the Russian military will be able to sustain these levels of losses indefinitely. If Moscow does not rapidly expand its military-industrial production and move to reduce vehicle losses, this will increase the likelihood of Moscow agreeing to (at least temporarily) pause the fighting towards the end of 2025 or early 2026 in order to reconstitute its military.
• BAKHMUT: The tempo of Russian offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar direction has likely slowed in recent days, despite achieving limited advances. Geolocated footage posted on 24 February indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along the T-0504 road to the west of Chasiv Yar. Additional geolocated footage posted on 26 February indicates that Russian forces advanced in western Chasiv Yar. Further south in Toretsk, Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to contest the northern outskirts of the town. Geolocated footage posted on 26 February indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced slightly along two streets in the north of the town.
• DONETSK: In the Pokrovsk sector, Ukrainian counter-attacks have succeeded in slowing down Russian advances over the past few days. Earlier on 27 February, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that, after regrouping, Ukrainian forces have been able to slow down Russian progress in the most threatening areas, such as to the east of Pokrovsk, around Novopavlivka. Ukrainian forces reported on 26 February that they had retaken control of the settlement of Kotlyne, located to the west of Pokrovsk. They also made confirmed advances north of Pishchane, to the south-west of Pokrovsk. The latest Ukrainian operational advances likely indicate growing Russian difficulties in sustaining the high tempo of attritional fighting in the area over a long period. Heavy losses, particularly in vehicles and other equipment, are likely also limiting the effectiveness of Russian assaults in the sector. However, the ongoing Ukrainian stabilisation of the Pokrovsk sector could also realistically reflect an ongoing reorientation of Russian offensive efforts to the east, towards Kostiyantinivka. We previously assessed that this will likely become the focus for Russian forces during the upcoming spring fighting season.
• DONETSK: Further south, in the Kurakhove sector, Russian forces recently reached the T-0515 Pokrovsk-Andriivka highway, located to the north-east of Andriivka. Geolocated footage from 25 February shows that Andriivka, located to the west of Kurakhove, is entirely under Russian control.
• KHARKIV: Nothing significant to report
• KURSK: On 26 February, an official from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) told the AFP that North Korea has sent additional soldiers to Russia and has deployed others to the frontline in Kursk oblast. North Korea sent an estimated 11,000 troops to Russia in 2024, but they were reportedly temporarily withdrawn from the frontline in January due to heavy losses. While the official number of extra troops sent my North Korea is unclear, a South Korean newspaper cited anonymous officials as stating that up to 3,000 troops have been sent since January. The new deployed frontline troops will likely attempt to internalise lessons learned during the recent tactical pause in a bid to reduce the overall casualty rates. That said, North Korean forces are seemingly continuing to attack in much larger infantry formations in contrast to Russian forces, meaning they will likely continue to experience high causality rates. However, they will still serve to support Russian forces in applying attritional pressure on the defending Ukrainian forces.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Russian forces made gains north of Kupiansk amid continued efforts to expand their bridgehead on the right (west) bank of the Oskil River. As of 26 February, Russian forces made confirmed advances along Soniachna Street in northern Dvorichna, located to the north of Kupiansk. A local Ukrainian official reported on 27 February that Russian assault groups are making continued attempts to progress further into Dvorichna and, further south, into Zapadne. Such efforts are part of a wider endeavour to expand Russia’s presence on the right (west) bank of the Oskil River. Russian forces also advanced north-west of Tabaivka, located to the south-east of Kupiansk. Meanwhile, further south, Russia made confirmed gains south-west of Terny, located to the north-east of Lyman.
• SOUTHERN: Russian forces have marginally advanced in western Donetsk oblast and in Zaporizhzhia oblast in recent days. Geolocated footage posted on 24 February indicates that Russian forces advanced north-west of Vremivka, which is located to the west of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast). The Ukrainian General Staff also posted a map on 25 February pointing to Russian advances to the north and west of Velyka Novosilka, indicating Russian forces have further consolidated control of the area since the fall of the town itself. Meanwhile, further west in Zaporizhzhia oblast, a map posted by the Ukrainian General Staff indicates that Russian forces recently advanced north-east of Luhove and south of Shcherbaky, both of which are located to the north-west of Robotyne.
• STRIKES: Over recent days, Russia continued to launch very large-scale drone strikes. The strike on 25 February included in all 213 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and seven Kh-101 cruise missiles. Ukraine intercepted 133 UAVs and six missiles. Ukraine’s interception rate remained high, though damage was recorded across the country following the latest strikes.
• OFFENSIVES: On 24 February, the three-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces had liberated over 50% of the territory Russia had occupied since the invasion. Syrskyi also claimed that over the course of three years of full-scale war, Russian forces have lost over 10,100 tanks, 21,100 armoured vehicles and 23,300 artillery systems. While we cannot confirm this number, the International Institute for Strategtic Studies (IISS) has estimated (drawing on confirmed vehicles destroyed only) that Russia has lost around 14,000 tanks and armoured vehicles (including infantry fighting vehicles and armoured personnel carriers).
• OFFENSIVES: Accurate equipment loss estimates are difficult to confirm, but it is clear that Russian forces have expended a disproportionate amount of its military equipment during the war; in addition, its remaining Soviet stocks of weapons are dwindling. While Russia has made numerous advances over the last six months, they have come at an increasingly high cost and it remains unlikely that the Russian military will be able to sustain these levels of losses indefinitely. If Moscow does not rapidly expand its military-industrial production and move to reduce vehicle losses, this will increase the likelihood of Moscow agreeing to (at least temporarily) pause the fighting towards the end of 2025 or early 2026 in order to reconstitute its military.
• BAKHMUT: The tempo of Russian offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar direction has likely slowed in recent days, despite achieving limited advances. Geolocated footage posted on 24 February indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along the T-0504 road to the west of Chasiv Yar. Additional geolocated footage posted on 26 February indicates that Russian forces advanced in western Chasiv Yar. Further south in Toretsk, Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to contest the northern outskirts of the town. Geolocated footage posted on 26 February indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced slightly along two streets in the north of the town.
• DONETSK: In the Pokrovsk sector, Ukrainian counter-attacks have succeeded in slowing down Russian advances over the past few days. Earlier on 27 February, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that, after regrouping, Ukrainian forces have been able to slow down Russian progress in the most threatening areas, such as to the east of Pokrovsk, around Novopavlivka. Ukrainian forces reported on 26 February that they had retaken control of the settlement of Kotlyne, located to the west of Pokrovsk. They also made confirmed advances north of Pishchane, to the south-west of Pokrovsk. The latest Ukrainian operational advances likely indicate growing Russian difficulties in sustaining the high tempo of attritional fighting in the area over a long period. Heavy losses, particularly in vehicles and other equipment, are likely also limiting the effectiveness of Russian assaults in the sector. However, the ongoing Ukrainian stabilisation of the Pokrovsk sector could also realistically reflect an ongoing reorientation of Russian offensive efforts to the east, towards Kostiyantinivka. We previously assessed that this will likely become the focus for Russian forces during the upcoming spring fighting season.
• DONETSK: Further south, in the Kurakhove sector, Russian forces recently reached the T-0515 Pokrovsk-Andriivka highway, located to the north-east of Andriivka. Geolocated footage from 25 February shows that Andriivka, located to the west of Kurakhove, is entirely under Russian control.
• KHARKIV: Nothing significant to report
• KURSK: On 26 February, an official from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) told the AFP that North Korea has sent additional soldiers to Russia and has deployed others to the frontline in Kursk oblast. North Korea sent an estimated 11,000 troops to Russia in 2024, but they were reportedly temporarily withdrawn from the frontline in January due to heavy losses. While the official number of extra troops sent my North Korea is unclear, a South Korean newspaper cited anonymous officials as stating that up to 3,000 troops have been sent since January. The new deployed frontline troops will likely attempt to internalise lessons learned during the recent tactical pause in a bid to reduce the overall casualty rates. That said, North Korean forces are seemingly continuing to attack in much larger infantry formations in contrast to Russian forces, meaning they will likely continue to experience high causality rates. However, they will still serve to support Russian forces in applying attritional pressure on the defending Ukrainian forces.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Russian forces made gains north of Kupiansk amid continued efforts to expand their bridgehead on the right (west) bank of the Oskil River. As of 26 February, Russian forces made confirmed advances along Soniachna Street in northern Dvorichna, located to the north of Kupiansk. A local Ukrainian official reported on 27 February that Russian assault groups are making continued attempts to progress further into Dvorichna and, further south, into Zapadne. Such efforts are part of a wider endeavour to expand Russia’s presence on the right (west) bank of the Oskil River. Russian forces also advanced north-west of Tabaivka, located to the south-east of Kupiansk. Meanwhile, further south, Russia made confirmed gains south-west of Terny, located to the north-east of Lyman.
• SOUTHERN: Russian forces have marginally advanced in western Donetsk oblast and in Zaporizhzhia oblast in recent days. Geolocated footage posted on 24 February indicates that Russian forces advanced north-west of Vremivka, which is located to the west of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast). The Ukrainian General Staff also posted a map on 25 February pointing to Russian advances to the north and west of Velyka Novosilka, indicating Russian forces have further consolidated control of the area since the fall of the town itself. Meanwhile, further west in Zaporizhzhia oblast, a map posted by the Ukrainian General Staff indicates that Russian forces recently advanced north-east of Luhove and south of Shcherbaky, both of which are located to the north-west of Robotyne.
• STRIKES: Over recent days, Russia continued to launch very large-scale drone strikes. The strike on 25 February included in all 213 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and seven Kh-101 cruise missiles. Ukraine intercepted 133 UAVs and six missiles. Ukraine’s interception rate remained high, though damage was recorded across the country following the latest strikes.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• SANCTIONS: On 26 February, US President Donald Trump ruled out sanctions relief for Russia as part of negotiations aimed at ending the war. The US President advocated for seeing if it is possible to make a deal first before easing punitive measures. We have previously reported the possibility of Washington DC utilising sanctions (and sanctions relief) as a way to incentivise or coerce Moscow’s participation in talks. Further sanctions do remain possible if talks reach an impasse or breakdown.
• DIPLOMACY: Russian and US officials met in Istanbul (Istyanbul province, Turkey) on 27 February for a second round of talks in recent weeks. Prior to the meeting, the US State Department disclosed that the engagement would not involve discussions on the war in Ukraine. Rather, embassy operations would be the focus. During the first round of Russia-US talks on 18 February in Saudi Arabia, the two sides agreed to start consultations aimed at removing restrictions on the activities of their respective diplomatic missions (and likely limited intelligence operations). The bilateral engagement outside of discussions on ending the war in Ukraine reflects the Trump administration’s efforts to normalise relations with Russia after essentially frozen contact following the full-scale invasion.
• AID: Reports emerged on 26 February that the Trump administration is terminating more than 90% of US Agency for International Development (USAID) foreign aid contracts and USD 60 billion in overall US assistance globally. However, Politico reported on 25 February that senior State Department officials are compiling a list of additional exemptions to the foreign aid freeze for Ukraine. If enacted, waivers could realistically be used to fund schemes related to demining and narcotics control as well as general economic assistance and civil society support. The reports further underscore the uncertainty of continued US assistance for Ukraine under the Trump administration. For further analysis on USAID and Ukraine, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 27 January 2025.

FORECAST

MINERALS: On 25 February, Ukraine and the US agreed on the terms of a draft mineral resources deal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to meet with Trump on 28 February in the capital Washington DC to finalise and sign the agreement.  The final version of the agreement envisions the establishment of a fund into which Kyiv would contribute 50% of proceeds from the ‘future monetisation’ of state-owned mineral resources. Additionally, the fund would be used to invest in projects in Ukraine. However, the size of the US’ stake in the fund and the terms of ‘joint ownership’ deals in future agreements remain less clear. Nevertheless, the deal will highly likely enhance economic co-operation with the Trump administration in the longer term, if the deal holds. In this regard, Ukraine likely hopes that the deal will encourage the US to seek more favourable terms for Kyiv during peace negotiations to end the war.  Although Ukrainian officials are said to have negotiated more favourable terms in the updated version of the arrangement, the agreement does not contain explicit security guarantees; this was previously a key Ukrainian demand. That said, the agreement does make a vague acknowledgement in this regard, noting that the US government ‘supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace’. Zelensky has addressed that the security guarantees Kyiv wishes to obtain are not specified in the deal, though he said they will be discussed in future rounds of negotiations with the US and other allies. As such, we assess that Kyiv likely hopes the arrangement will serve as a stepping stone towards securing continued US military assistance and future security guarantees if a peace deal with Russia is reached. Meanwhile, Russia is also likely attempting to leverage the Trump administration’s desire to obtain critical minerals and other resources to its advantage. Reports emerged on 25 February that Russia has proposed a potential agreement whereby the US would gain some ownership of rare earth minerals and other valuable metals in Russian-controlled Ukraine. Senior Russian officials reportedly floated the idea on 18 February in Saudi Arabia; options included potentially giving the US access to minerals in Russian-annexed Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Some estimates conclude that around 53% of Ukraine’s mineral resources are contained in the four regions Russia annexed in September 2022 (Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts).= On 24 February, President Vladimir Putin announced his readiness to offer the US joint exploration of Russia’s rare earth metal deposits. Putin clarified that this proposal would be extended not only to US administrative and government structures but also to companies if they showed interest in working together. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), Russia possesses the world’s fifth-largest reserves of rare earth metals. Evaluations from 2022 estimate that Russia had occupied 63% of Ukraine’s coal mines as well as half of its caesium, manganese, tantalum and rare earth deposits. We assess that the offer is indicative of attempts to ease Russia’s economic isolation and improve Russia’s negotiating position vis-à-vis Ukraine. It will likely also form part of Russia’s strategy to retain control over (and potentially gain de facto US recognition of) the Ukrainian territories it has claimed by attempting to attract foreign investment and development interest. Moscow will likely perceive the Trump administration’s reported willingness to consider the deal as ‘legitimising’ Russian territorial claims over the Ukrainian lands it has captured.

Feb 26.

• Ukraine-US: Mineral deal will enhance prospects of future economic co-operation. Reports emerged on 25 February that Ukraine and the US have agreed on the terms of a draft mineral resources deal. The final version of the agreement, dated 24 February, envisions the establishment of a fund into which Kyiv would contribute 50% of proceeds from the ‘future monetisation’ of state-owned mineral resources. Additionally, the fund would be used to invest in projects in Ukraine. However, the size of the US’ stake in the fund and the terms of ‘joint ownership’ deals in future agreements remain less clear. Although Ukrainian officials are said to have negotiated more favourable terms in the updated version of the arrangement, the agreement does not contain explicit security guarantees. This was previously a key Ukrainian demand. Nevertheless, the deal will highly likely enhance economic co-operation with the Trump administration in the longer term. We assess that Kyiv hopes the arrangement will increase the likelihood of continued US military assistance and future security guarantees if a peace deal with Russia is reached.
• Belarus-Ukraine: Cyber campaign raises security risks for activists, government organisations. On 25 February, the security company Sentinel Labs reported that the Belarus-aligned threat group ‘Ghostwriter’ has targeted Belarusian activists and Ukrainian government organisations in a cyber operation since at least the end of 2024. Ghostwriter uses phishing emails as initial attack vectors to trick potential victims into clicking on a Google Drive link and/or an infected image. The attachments contain a malicious Excel file that displays a decoy list of political prisoners, while covertly installing a modified version of the ‘PicassoLoader’ malware. PicassoLoader is then stored and modified in the system’s memory to enhance detection evasion, enabling threat actors to maintain persistence within compromised systems. This campaign is likely a continuation of another Ghostwriter campaign against Ukraine uncovered in July 2024. This development marks a shift in the group’s targets, indicating that they now also include the Belarusian opposition. This will sustain heightened security risks to Belarusian and Ukrainian entities.
• Moldova: Russian destabilisation will highly likely intensify ahead of parliamentary elections. A Moldovan polling firm released data on 26 February which suggests that if parliamentary elections were held in the near term, no party would be able to secure a majority and appoint a government alone. According to iData, 27.2% of respondents would vote for the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). The pro-Russia Socialist Party (PSRM) and Victory bloc would be the next most popular choices (13.3% and 11.8%, respectively). That said, 18.1% of Moldovans surveyed expressed that they do not know which party to vote for, while 5.7% indicated they would not cast their ballot. Moldova will most likely hold parliamentary elections in September. Russia will highly likely intensify destabilisation operations ahead of the vote to increase the likelihood of pro-Moscow parties winning or gaining enough seats to stop PAS from enjoying a parliamentary majority. Ultimately, we assess this would increase the likelihood of frequent policy deadlock and undermine the current pro-West government’s efforts to pursue EU membership rather than closer ties with Russia.
• Ukraine: New travel rules point to increasing likelihood of mobilisation age lowering. On 26 February, Ukraine’s Ministry of Culture announced the suspension of letters of assistance for travels abroad, effective from 3 March. The measure will impact men of military age working in culture, information security, strategic communications and audio-visual media. It will remain in effect until the authorities establish new requirements for issuing such letters. The decision was reportedly made in response to numerous cases involving individuals failing to return after being granted permission to leave the country. We assess this underscores the government’s ongoing efforts to close legal loopholes that men of military age are exploiting to evade mobilisation. Ukraine continues to face a chronic shortage of military personnel, which is undermining its combat capabilities. There is a realistic possibility that Kyiv will lower the mobilisation age in the coming months to expand its fighting force. However, such a measure would likely be highly unpopular, and possibly trigger moderate domestic backlash. Nevertheless, we assess this would not threaten government stability significantly.
• Russia: Highly likely new foreign agent restrictions will further pressure private education providers. On 26 February, the State Duma Committee on Security and Anti-Corruption submitted a bill proposing new amendments to the country’s foreign agent legislation. The amendments seek to ban entities registered as foreign agents from providing educational services in Russia. Under the new bill, the authorities will revoke the educational licence of any entity designated as a foreign agent. Additionally, the bill tightens financial restrictions on foreign agents by expanding the ban on state support to include funding at the municipal level. In recent years, the Russian authorities have introduced increasingly restrictive amendments to the country’s foreign agent legislation to suppress dissent further. The latest measures clearly underscore Moscow’s efforts to prevent entities such as private educational providers and NGOs from offering educational services that are deemed contrary to the Kremlin’s ideological stance. Meanwhile, we assess the new financial restrictions will further threaten the operations of entities registered as foreign agents (such as NGOs) that benefit from municipal funding.

Feb 24.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• KURSK: Russia’s General Staff claims that its forces have now regained control of 64% of Ukrainian territory in Kursk oblast (Russia) amid unconfirmed reports that Russian forces crossed the border into Sumy oblast (Ukraine) to the west of the Kursk salient
• STRIKES: Russia launched its largest ever drone attack against Ukraine (which involved 267 UAVs) on 23 February amid the increased threat of high-intensity missile strikes against the capital Kyiv this week to mark the war’s third anniversary
• ASSETS: Russia will possibly agree to use USD 300 bn of its frozen assets for Ukraine’s reconstruction if part of the money is used for Ukrainian territory under Russian control
• FORECAST: Today (24 February) marks the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine; a flurry of diplomatic activity to set the conditions for future peace talks will mark the day
• BAKHMUT: Geolocated footage published on 23 February indicated that Russian forces have seized the frontline town of Bilohorivka, located around seven miles (11km) to the north-west of Lysychansk (Luhansk oblast). The town was one of the last remaining settlements under Ukrainian control in Luhansk, over which both sides have been fighting since 2022. While the settlement is small, it was a strongpoint for Ukraine’s defences to the north-east of Siversk for over two years; its loss will likely force the Ukrainians to withdraw to fallback positions and second-layer defences. However, the Ukrainians have had a long time to fortify the area, and these defences will likely frustrate Russian efforts to capitalise on their recent gain by making further rapid advances across the border into north-eastern Donetsk oblast. However, it remains unclear where Ukrainian forces will withdraw following the fall of Bilohorivka.
• DONETSK: Russian forces are sustaining a high tempo of attacks in the Pokrovsk sector, where Ukrainian troops have nevertheless recorded gains in recent days. Geolocated footage from 22 February shows recent Russian advances to the north-east and south of Nadiivka, a settlement located to the south-west of Pokrovsk. Footage from 20 February shows Russian forces progressing within Pishchane, where Ukrainian forces have retaken several positions. Pishchane, located to the south-west of Pokrovsk, likely remains a contested settlement and a hotspot for intense fighting. The deputy commander of a Ukrainian battalion operating in the area noted that Russian forces have intensified drone strikes and reconnaissance operations, including with fibre-optic unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). However, a Russian milblogger stated that Ukrainian drones are superior, underscoring Kyiv’s likely (albeit slight) technological advantage in this area. The Ukrainian General Staff has reported a high number of Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk sector over the past few days.
• DONETSK: Russian forces have reportedly closed the pocket to the west of Kurakhove over the past few days, according to geolocated footage from 21 February. This will likely improve Russia’s defensive positions to the west of Kurakhove and facilitate ongoing efforts to level the frontline in western Donetsk. The Russian command will likely redeploy forces from the area to other priority sectors of the frontline in the coming weeks.
• KHARKIV: Nothing significant to report
• KURSK: On 20 February, a senior member of Russia’s General Staff, Sergei Rudsky, claimed that Russian forces have now regained control of 64% of the territory Ukrainian forces originally captured (or operated within) in Kursk oblast (Russia). On 21 February, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that its forces had seized Sverdlikovo, a town located around seven miles (11km) to the north-west of Sudzha, very close to the Russia-Ukraine international border. While geolocated footage from 21 February supports the claim that Russian forces have at least advanced in this area, Russian sources have claimed additional advances to the south.
• KURSK: Russian sources claimed on 20 February that their forces had penetrated the international border and advanced into Sumy oblast (Ukraine), seizing the town of Basivka. The town is located behind Ukrainian lines around two miles (3km) to the west of the international border. While we cannot confirm this, the claims (if true) would represent a notable threat to the Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) supplying forces defending territory inside Kursk itself. It is unclear whether the unconfirmed reports indicate a reconnaissance-in-force operation designed to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines, or an attempt to hold territory and unbalance Ukraine’s western flank in Kursk.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
• SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage published on 20 February indicated that Russian forces seized Novoocheretuvate, located to the north-west of Velyka Novosilka, which the Russian MoD reported on 21 February. The settlement is notably located on the western bank of the Mokri Yaly River, indicating that Russian forces have now crossed the river and are likely attempting to make further gains to the north and west of Velyka Novosilka. Geolocated footage from 22 February did indeed confirm further Russian advances to the north along the Mokri Yaly River.
• STRIKES: Over the past few days, Russian forces have launched large-scale drone strikes against Ukraine. Each of the latest attacks involved over 160 UAVs, with a record-breaking 267 UAVs deployed on 23 February. The 21 February and 23 February attacks also included two and three Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, respectively.
• STRIKES: Russia continues to limit the number of missiles used in its long-range attacks, instead prioritising increasingly large UAV strikes, a trend we have observed over recent months. We assess that Russia’s reliance on drone strikes is likely driven by cost-effectiveness, particularly as Moscow continues to conduct a more conservative approach to its long-range strategic missile stockpiles. While Ukraine maintains a relatively high interception rate, the low cost of UAVs allows Russia to sustain daily large-scale attacks. As such, Russia can record numerous drone hits by increasing the scale of its UAV launches, despite the lower success rate of these projectiles.
• STRIKES: Recent strike patterns likely indicate that Moscow is replenishing its missile stockpiles, which will likely be used in major strikes in the coming months – including potentially this week to mark the three-year anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It remains a realistic possibility that a high-intensity missile attack will target the capital Kyiv this week to coincide with the anniversary on 24 February.
• STRIKES: Such large-scale drone attacks continue to strain Ukrainian air defence capabilities and to cause damage to various types of infrastructure, including critical energy facilities. Notably, recent attacks have specifically targeted Ukrainian gas production sites, causing a 40% decrease in gas output. In turn, Kyiv has increased its imports of blue fuel to 800 m cubic metres (mcm) for February and March.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• ELECTIONS: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on 23 February that he is prepared to step down if doing so means ‘peace’ for Ukraine. Zelensky also suggested that he would resign in exchange for NATO membership, though we assess that Ukraine’s accession into the alliance remains highly unlikely, including under such conditions. The comments come amid growing pressure from the Trump administration for Ukraine to hold elections, despite martial law prohibiting this procedure. We continue to assess that, in the absence of a ceasefire, presidential and/or parliamentary elections are unlikely in the coming months as martial law conditions remain in place. For further analysis on the mounting pressure for elections, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 20 February 2025.
• ASSETS: Russia will possibly agree to use USD 300 bn of its frozen assets for Ukraine’s reconstruction, if part of the money is used for the Ukrainian lands under Russian control. Citing an unspecified person familiar with the matter, Reuters reported on 21 February that Moscow could agree to allocate up to two-thirds of the frozen assets, provided there were accountability guarantees. Meanwhile, the remaining funds would go towards rebuilding Russian-occupied regions. In February 2024, the World Bank estimated that USD 486 bn would be needed for Ukraine’s reconstruction and recovery.
• ASSETS: Russian-annexed Ukrainian regions (namely Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts) have likely experienced the most war-related damage. While we cannot verify the Reuters report, if true, it would indicate that Russia is possibly willing to concede a significant portion of its frozen assets as part of an agreement to end the war. However, while this would indicate that Moscow is possibly willing to make some economic concessions, the report reaffirms that Russia remains opposed to relinquishing control over the Ukrainian lands it occupies.
• AID: Reports emerged on 21 February that the EU is preparing an additional military aid package for Ukraine worth around EUR 20bn (USD 20.9bn). It would aim to include artillery ammunition, air defence systems, deep-precision strike missiles, drones and other armaments. The EU is seeking to agree in principle to the initiative; it is open to ‘in-kind’ and ‘in-cash’ contributions from member states and like-minded allies.
• AID: The development underscores the EU’s efforts to show that it remains united in its support for Ukraine and its position as a security partner given the likely decline in US aid over the coming months. However, internal disagreements on aiding Ukraine among EU member states alongside competing domestic priorities will possibly impede timelines for the provision of such assistance and/or its scope.
• AID: Numerous other European partners have announced further aid packages to Ukraine to mark the anniversary of the full-scale invasion. Denmark announced an aid package to Ukraine worth over EUR 268 m (USD 280.43 m) earlier on 24 February. Meanwhile, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced a new military aid package for Ukraine from Madrid this year worth EUR 1bn (USD 1.05bn). Additional EU member states and other European countries will likely announce separate military aid packages for Ukraine to mark the anniversary. EU leaders will also meet for an extraordinary summit on 6 March to discuss additional support for Ukraine, as well as security guarantees and the financing of Europe’s defences.

FORECAST

PEACE: Today (24 February) marks the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. European leaders arrived in Kyiv earlier on 24 February for a summit to discuss Ukraine’s strategy for possible negotiations and security guarantees. This comes as US President Donald Trump’s administration engages with Russia to end the war, amid concerns that Europe and Ukraine will be sidelined in the peace process. US Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, a senior Trump administration official, claimed on 23 February that the US is ‘very close’ to reaching a peace agreement. Witkoff, who was present at the first US-Russia negotiations on 18 February in Saudi Arabia, offered limited details, but suggested that the 2022 Istanbul agreements would possibly serve as the foundation for a future settlement. Those accords followed negotiations in Istanbul (Turkey) in the early stages of the full-scale invasion. They outlined potential terms for a peace agreement, including Ukraine’s adoption of a neutral status and the abandonment of its aspirations to join NATO, as well as limits on its military – effectively amounting to terms that are close to Russia’s maximalist war objectives. Nevertheless, Witkoff’s assessment is highly likely optimistic; our assessment remains that a strategic settlement that definitively ends the war will almost certainly require more time and consultations that include Ukraine. Witkoff insisted that both sides will have to make concessions, be they economic or territorial, in order to achieve peace. However, clashes between Trump and Zelensky and the US’ ostensible prioritisation of bilateral engagement with Russia will increase the likelihood of Ukraine facing more painful compromises as part of any agreement to end the war. However, Zelensky’s government is actively engaging with the US in a bid to find an equitable deal; Deputy Prime Minister Stefanishyna stated earlier on 24 February that Ukraine-US talks concerning a natural resources and minerals deal were now entering their ‘final stages’. If such an agreement is reached, and depending on the security guarantees the US will pledge in return, this would likely further increase the prospects of peace – or at least a ceasefire. A second round of negotiations between Russia and the US is expected to take place on 25 February in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia). Ukraine and its European allies were not invited to the first talks on 18 February (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 20 February 2025); it is unclear whether they will participate in the next round of discussions. Ultimately, the pace at which the Trump administration is holding negotiations underscores that ending the war in a timely fashion is a key foreign policy aim. That said, a quick deal which meets Russia’s short-term demands but leaves Ukraine vulnerable to renewed aggression will increase the likelihood of armed conflict reigniting at a future date. Notably, Zelensky claimed earlier on 24 February that Russia has violated ceasefire terms 25 times since 2014, underscoring the need for a durable settlement to which both sides will adhere. Germany’s presumptive next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, insisted on 23 February that Ukraine must be part of negotiations to achieve a just peace. Notably, on 21 February, Trump claimed that Zelensky is not essential to negotiations to end the war, describing him as a ‘dictator’. However, as Ukraine is a party to the conflict, we assess that the involvement of Zelensky (or the Ukrainian government) in the peace process is critical, as Kyiv will possibly refuse any terms. Recent polling by the Ukrainian firm Rating suggests that 91% of Ukrainians oppose peace negotiations between the US and Russia without Ukrainian participation. Ultimately, disproportionate Ukrainian representation or Ukraine’s total exclusion would increase government stability risks in the coming months if Washington DC and Moscow attempt to enforce ‘peace’ terms which are unfavourable to Kyiv.

Feb 20.

• Russia-Ukraine: Growing EU-US divergence raises possibility of two-track Western sanctions regime. On the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, EU countries agreed on a 16th package of sanctions against Russia. The measures include a ban on imports of Russian aluminium, new restrictions on Russia’s shadow fleet of oil cargo ships and financial sector sanctions. On the same day, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and other top EU officials visited the capital Kyiv (Ukraine), underscoring the EU’s commitment to supporting Ukraine. This comes amid a shift in US policy under President Donald Trump, who likely favours a rapid resolution of the conflict, likely under terms unfavourable to Ukraine. The latest EU restrictive measures will likely continue to strain Russia’s economy as the war enters its fourth year. However, Trump’s eagerness to end the conflict means Washington DC will likely be open to sanctions relief to incentivise Moscow to agree to a settlement. We assess that this approach would likely undermine the EU’s current strategy of maintaining pressure on Russia while increasing the possibility of a two-track sanctions process in the future and complicating compliance risks for both US and European companies.
• Europe: Ukraine talks will possibly drive attack, domestic unrest risks for diplomatic missions. Earlier on 24 February, an unknown perpetrator or perpetrators threw two Molotov cocktails at the Russian consulate in Marseille (Bouches-du-Rhône department, France). Fire and material damage was reported in the consulate’s garden, though no injuries have been reported. Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has labelled the incident a terrorist attack. The French authorities have yet to release details on the suspected perpetrator(s) or the motive. As the event coincides with the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there is a realistic possibility that the explosion was deliberately timed and linked to the ongoing conflict. We assess that as talks to end the war continue in the coming weeks, Russian and, to a lesser extent, US diplomatic missions across Europe will face an increased risk of demonstrations and sporadic attacks targeting their premises. The risk will increase if the terms of any potential agreement are perceived as unjust or unfavourable to Ukraine. (Source: Sibylline)

 

27 Feb 25. NATO Surveillance Precedes Ukraine’s Massive Strikes Targeting Russia’s Largest Black Sea Oil Port. NATO reconnaissance sorties monitoring Crimea and the Black Sea reportedly surged ahead of Ukraine’s series of drone strikes on Wednesday, targeting oil refineries, port facilities, and air defense systems across Russia’s Krasnodar region and the occupied Crimean Peninsula, according to a Kyiv Post report. The Tuapse Oil Refinery on Russia’s Black Sea coast was reportedly hit by drone strikes, suffering significant damage from at least 40 explosions. The facility processes around 12 million tons of oil per year and exports more than 90% of its products. While the news outlet reported that NATO’s increased air activity over Romania and surrounding waters preceded the attacks, it could not confirm a direct link between NATO’s high-level surveillance and the Ukrainian drone raids. Additional targets by Ukraine’s overnight attack included seaport infrastructures near the Kerch Strait port of Temryuk, oil refineries and storage tanks adjacent to Anapa, and military airfields in Saki and Kacha within Crimea.  The Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU), in collaboration with the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) and other defense components carried out the recent operations. Russia has claimed that it destroyed 83 drones during the overnight attack over Krasnodar. Concurrently, Russia launched nearly 200 drones overnight, targeting the Kyiv region and energy facilities in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted 110 of the 177 drones deployed. The attacks resulted in civilian casualties, including the deaths of Ukrinform journalist Tetiana Kulyk and her husband, Professor Pavlo Ivanchev, in the Kyiv region. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

 

27 Feb 27. Ukraine’s EW Tactics Reportedly Neutralizing Russian Glide Bombs. New reports revealed that Russia’s highly destructive guided glide bombs, which it has long used to target Ukrainian cities, are being jammed through Ukraine’s improved electronic warfare (EW) systems. Over the past year, Russia relied heavily on satellite-guided glide bombs, often launching up to 100 per day along the 800-mile front. These weapons, fitted with Universal Planning and Correction Modules (UMPK), allowed Russian aircraft to release bombs from a safe distance while still striking deep inside Ukrainian-controlled areas.  Cities such as Avdiivka and Zaporizhzhia were among the hardest hit, as Ukrainian forces initially lacked effective countermeasures. However, recent reports claim that Ukrainian EW systems have fundamentally disrupted this strategy.

“It appears Ukraine has found a way to disrupt satellite navigation for the guidance kits bolted onto these bombs with electronic warfare,” Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher with the War Studies department at King’s College London, U.K. told Newsweek.

“Russia will need to rework its guidance kits to make them as effective as they once were,” Miron also noted.

A recent post of Fighterbomber, an unofficial Telegram channel of the Russian Air Force, translated by Estonian analyst WarTranslated, states: “The golden era of the divine UMPK turned out to be short-lived.”

UMPK is a system developed for the deployment of precision-guided munitions, designed to offer real-time guidance and trajectory correction for the glide bombs.

“The bombs are still flying, planned targets are being hit, everyone’s busy, the charts in presentations look prettier than ever, and the numbers of sorties and destroyed targets in reports have grown so large that briefers are reading them with bated breath,” the post reads.

“But there is a catch. They’re missing. All satellite guided correction systems have officially left the chat. Both Russian and Ukrainian EW specialists have mastered portable and mobile EW stations, which now saturate the front line on both sides, rendering satellite-guided corrections for all munitions (not just UMPKs) useless.” (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

 

27 Feb 25. North Korea has sent additional troops to Russia after suffering heavy losses in the war with Ukraine, a new assessment has found. South Korea’s national intelligence service (NIS) said it was determining exactly how many more troops North Korea has deployed, though local reports put the number at between 1,000 and 3,000 soldiers. The troops were redeployed to Russia’s Kursk region in early February following a temporary withdrawal, according to the NIS. North Korea sent about 10,000-12,000 troops to Russia last year and has supplied vast amounts of conventional weapons. In January, the NIS reported about 300 North Korean soldiers were killed and 2,700 injured. President Zelensky put casualties at 4,000, while US estimates were around 1,200. Though disciplined, North Korean soldiers have become easy targets due to lack of combat experience and unfamiliarity with the region. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

26 Feb 27. Russian forces have recaptured two settlements in the country’s western Kursk region where Ukrainian troops broke across the border and seized a chunk of territory last August, the Russian Defence Ministry said on Wednesday. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy praised his troops for “good results” in Kursk and lauded frontline units in Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine for launching counterattacks against Russian forces. (Source: Reuters)

 

25 Feb 25. Sweden and Norway to strengthen Ukraine’s air defence. Sweden intends to authorise acquisition of RBS 70 and Tridon Mk2 air defence systems for Ukraine. The governments of Sweden and Norway have announced plans to bolster Ukraine’s defence industry with financial contributions.   Sweden is set to authorise the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration to acquire RBS 70 and Tridon Mk2 air defence systems for Ukraine.   This procurement, valued at Skr1.2bn ($112.98m), is part of Sweden’s ongoing military support, which will persist as needed.  Swedish Defence Minister Pål Jonson said: “This strengthens Ukraine’s air defence capability and will be a significant addition to Ukraine’s armed forces. It also gives Ukraine the opportunity to test new Swedish defence capabilities on the battlefield.”  Sweden’s commitment to Ukraine’s defence was further demonstrated with the largest military support package presented in January 2025, totalling Skr13.5bn.   This package included Skr5.9bn for the procurement of defence materiel for Ukraine.   The forthcoming authorisation will enable the purchase of the latest RBS 70 version and the innovative Tridon Mk2 system.   Saab-developed RBS 70 has nearly 50-year service record worldwide, while the Tridon Mk2, developed by BAE Systems Bofors, is based on a modernised Bofors 40mm gun with more than 90 years of global usage.  The Tridon Mk2 is set for its first deployment in close combat within Ukraine, capable of engaging drones, cruise missiles, aircraft, and armoured vehicles.   Alongside these systems, Sweden, in partnership with other nations, will donate compatible surface-to-air and man-portable anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.   Sweden’s previous aid included two ASC 890 airborne control and surveillance aircraft as part of its 16th military aid package, valued at Skr13.3bn.  Meanwhile, Norway plans to allocate Nkr3.5bn ($315m) for Ukraine’s military equipment procurement from its own defence industry.   An additional Nkr600m is earmarked for drone procurement and technology development for the Ukrainian armed forces.

Norway Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said: “Norway will contribute to the effort to strengthen the Ukrainian defence industry. By purchasing military equipment directly from Ukraine, we are helping to increase the country’s production capacity, which is a crucial component of our military support.”

Norwegian authorities are fostering partnerships between Norwegian and Ukrainian companies to exchange technology and expertise.   This follows Norway’s Nkr500m contribution to a Danish-Ukrainian project for military equipment procurement from Ukraine’s defence industry.  The Norwegian Government has also introduced a dedicated scheme in the 2025 national budget to mitigate risks for Norwegian firms investing in or exporting to Ukraine.   As part of its commitment to the Drone Capability Coalition for Ukraine, co-led by Latvia and the UK, Norway has pledged Nkr600m for drones and technology development.  This is on top of a previous Nkr700m contribution to a multinational drone procurement initiative for Ukraine.  Under the Nansen Support Programme for Ukraine, Norway has committed a minimum of Nkr155bn in support over eight years, starting from 2023.   Of the Nkr35bn allocated for 2025, Nkr22.5bn is designated for military support and Nkr12.5bn for civilian aid.   Norway also confirmed an extension of its commitment to Nato’s air and missile defence initiatives at Rzeszów airport in Poland until the summer of 2025.  (Source: airforce-technology.com)

 

25 Feb 25. Ukraine Certifies U13 and U15 Jam-Resistant Drones. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has codified and approved for operation in units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine unmanned aerial systems U13 and U15 of Ukrainian production. This was reported by the Main Directorate for Lifecycle Support of Armaments and Military Equipment. The drones of these complexes are designed to destroy protected firing positions, armoured vehicles and enemy manpower. The U13 and U15 FPV drones differ in frame size and payload performance. The helicopters are equipped with powerful electric motors. The “birds” of these complexes are invulnerable to enemy electronic countermeasures and can be used in various meteorological conditions. (Source: UAS VISION/Ukraine Ministry of Defence)

 

26 Feb 25. V-BAT Drones to be Equipped with Ukrainian Laser-Guided Munitions. The American drone manufacturer Shield AI is looking for partners in Ukraine among manufacturers of laser-guided munitions to equip its V-BAT drone.

James Lithgow, director of Shield AI, told Militarnyi about this at the Defense Tech Innovation Forum 2025 exhibition.

“The drone can carry a combat payload, and it is already working in the United States. We are still looking for partners in Ukraine who produce laser-guided munitions to integrate them with V-BAT. We are working closely with Ukrainian partners. With all due respect, I cannot tell you who they are, but we are working with them,” he said.

He also added that the company, in addition to its permanent office in Kyiv, has opened a R&D and provides trainings for drone operators.  According to him, these drones have already been successfully used deep in the occupied territories, confirming their maximum range of 150 km. During such missions, the primary objective is to gather targeting data on enemy air defense and electronic warfare systems. The drone itself does not require a repeater but can function as one for other strike-capable systems. According to the company’s director, they plan to supply such repeaters to Ukraine soon.

On January 12, 2025, it became known that the Ukrainian Defense Forces received new Shield AI MQ-35A V-BAT drones At the time, it was reported that V-BAT had already conducted its first autonomous reconnaissance mission on the Ukrainian front lines. The drone weighs 56.5 kg, of which up to 11 kg is the payload. It can stay in the air for up to 10 hours. The drone’s reconnaissance capabilities are provided by a powerful optoelectronic station. It is equipped with a sensitive MWIR thermal imaging sensor, and artificial intelligence is used to detect and recognize targets. The main feature of this drone is its vertical takeoff and landing on a platform measuring only 4×4 meters. Moreover, takeoff and landing can be performed automatically without GPS. In August 2024, the Russian military reported that Ukrainian bomber drones used laser-guided bombs. It is known that the Ukrainian defense industry has long been working on adjusted ammunition to improve the efficiency of drone bombers. In particular, the development of such ammunition is supported by innovative projects of the Brave1 technology cluster. (Source: UAS VISION/Militarnyi)

 

26 Feb 25. Head of Armed Forces in talks with Ukraine over ‘military cooperation.’ The head of the British armed forces has held talks with his counterpart in Ukraine over future “military cooperation” in the war-torn country.  Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff, and Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi discussed “the possibilities of development of Ukrainian-British military cooperation for the protection of Ukraine and strengthening of Europe’s security.” It comes as Sir Keir Starmer prepares to travel to Washington today to convince Donald Trump to back Europe’s plans for peace in Ukraine, including European peacekeepers supported by a US “backstop”. Ukraine last night agreed to the US-proposed rare minerals deal after Mr Trump backed down on his most extreme demands over the pact that will see Kyiv hand over its natural resources to repay the US for its military aid. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, is set to sign the deal in Washington as early as this Friday, bringing to an end a weeks-long heated dispute with the US president. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

26 Feb 26. Kyiv has agreed terms with Washington on a minerals deal that Ukrainian officials hope will improve relations with the Trump administration and pave the way for a long-term US security commitment. Ukrainian officials said Kyiv was ready to sign the agreement on jointly developing its mineral resources, including oil and gas, after the US dropped demands for a right to $500bn in potential revenue from the deal. Although the text lacks explicit security guarantees, the officials argued they had negotiated far more favourable terms and depicted the deal as a way of broadening the relationship with the US to shore up Ukraine’s prospects after three years of war. “The minerals agreement is only part of the picture. We have heard multiple times from the US administration that it’s part of a bigger picture,” Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister and justice minister who has led the negotiations, told the Financial Times on Tuesday. A Ukrainian official with knowledge of the matter said president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was planning to travel to Washington on Friday to see Donald Trump and formalise the deal. On Tuesday the US president appeared to confirm his Ukrainian counterpart’s visit, saying: “I hear that [Zelenskyy is] coming on Friday. Certainly it’s OK with me if he’d like to.” The original draft agreement’s highly onerous terms — which Trump presented as a means of Ukraine repaying the US for military and financial aid since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion — provoked outrage in Kyiv and other European capitals.  After Zelenskyy rejected that initial text last week, Trump called him a “dictator” and appeared to blame Ukraine for starting the war. (Source: FT.com)

 

25 Feb 25. US, Ukraine agree to terms of critical minerals deal.

• Summary
• Draft minerals deal lacks U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine
• Trump seeks peacekeeping troops in Ukraine if conflict ends
• Ukraine’s mineral wealth could benefit U.S. under new deal

The U.S. and Ukraine have agreed on the terms of a draft minerals deal central to Kyiv’s push to win Washington’s support as President Donald Trump seeks to rapidly end the war with Russia, two sources with knowledge of the matter said on Tuesday.

A source familiar with the contents of the draft agreement said that it does not specify any U.S. security guarantees or continued flow of weapons but says that the United States wants Ukraine to be “free, sovereign and secure.”

One of the sources familiar with the deal said future weapons shipments are still being discussed between Washington and Kyiv.

Trump told reporters that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wants to come to Washington on Friday to sign a “very big deal.” This came after the two leaders exchanged hostile words last week.

The U.S. president, who has cast the deal as a repayment for bns of dollars in aid to Kyiv, also said some form of peacekeeping troops are needed in Ukraine if an agreement to end the conflict is struck. Moscow, which launched an invasion of Ukraine three years ago, has refused to accept any deployment of NATO forces. (Source: Reuters)

 

25 Feb 25. A US resolution calling for a “swift end” to the war in Ukraine passed the UN Security Council with the backing of Moscow and Beijing in a vote that dealt the latest blow to western unity during Donald Trump’s presidency. France and the UK did not veto the measure, which made no mention of Russia’s aggression or Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but they abstained after failing in a last-ditch effort to delay the final vote. The vote highlighted how the transatlantic alliance that has underpinned European security since the end of the second world war has begun to fray as the US president takes a transactional approach to foreign policy. It marks a stark contrast to the administration of Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, which led a western effort to freeze Russia out of the global economy in retaliation for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago. European capitals were blindsided this month by Trump launching bilateral talks with Moscow. He has in recent days also blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the three-year conflict and called for elections to be held in the country. Shelby Magid, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, said the abstention on the vote by France, the UK and other European countries indicated that the US and its allies would have to make an effort to find common ground. She added that even if the vote did not mark a complete break between Washington and Europe, the symbolism was clear. “It is stunning to see the US on the same side as these countries that we point to as in this axis of aggressors,” Magid said. Earlier on Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron met Trump at the White House and pressed him to pledge military “back-up” for European troops that could be deployed as peacekeepers to Ukraine if a ceasefire was reached. When asked if European troops would have American support, Trump said: “We will have a backing of some kind. Obviously, European countries are going to be involved. I don’t think you’re going to need much backing.” (Source: FT.com)

 

25 Feb 25. Neros to Send 6,000 American-Made Drones to Ukraine. U.S. company Neros has won a contract to deliver 6,000 FPV attack drones to Ukraine over 6 months, believed to be the highest rate for any U.S. producer ever. This is part of an international effort supplying drones to Ukraine. Making large numbers of FPVs fast has been challenging for U.S. producers, but it is core to Neros’ way of working.

“One of the first things we did when we started the company was go to Ukraine, and we were told that if we could not make 5,000 drones per month we were essentially useless,” Neros co-founder and CEO Soren Monroe-Anderson told me. “So we set out with this in mind.”

This stands in contrast to the Pentagon’s Replicator program, which was set a similar challenge of building large numbers of drones at speed, and aims to deliver just 3,000 drones over two years. Making high-quality FPVs at scale is difficult. Doing it without using ubiquitous Chinese components looks almost impossible. But Monroe-Anderson and co-founder Olaf Hichwa know more about these drones than most. Both are former professional-level sports FPV pilots and their insights have driven the company’s success.

Challenge 1: Removing China from the Equation

China dominates the drone market, with one company, Shenzhen-based DJI, producing an estimated 70% of all consumer drones. Both Ukraine and Russia now make FPV drones on a huge scale, each producing more than a m a year — but they do it largely with components imported from China. Even now some U.S. makers rely on Chinese components. This caused embarrassment recently when deliveries by Skydio were impacted by an embargo by Chinese battery suppliers. That is the exactly sort of problem Neros has worked hard to avoid. (Incidentally, Neros is also on China’s sanction list).

“Historically, the hardest components to source outside of China have been motors and cameras,” says Monroe-Anderson. “For both we have worked closely with partners to scale up production lines outside of China.”

Neros has shown that cutting the Chinese out is feasible, though at a price.

“Unfortunately, there still exist a huge difference in cost and capability between Chinese and Western manufacturing for drone components,” says Monroe-Anderson.

At present, a U.S. made drone will be more expensive than its Chinese counterpart. But even the most challenging technology can be made domestically where there is the will.

“In a lot of ways, the ground control system is more complicated than the drone,” says Soren-Anderson. “We also build these in-house.”

Aggressive vertical integration means that Neros make all the key components themselves, so there is no reliance on third-party manufacturers.

Challenge 2: The Need for Speed

Apart from China, the other problem is that, historically, small U.S military drones have been a boutique business, with contracts for small numbers.

“The largest U.S. drone companies are only setup to make a few thousand drones per year,” says Monroe-Anderson. “Any drone company that started before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and has the DoD as their primary customer has never been handed a serious demand for large quantities, which means this was never instilled from the beginning in the design of the product and the factory.”

Existing suppliers have never created production lines for the sort of volumes that are now needed. This is why, for example, Anduril are building their ‘hyperscale’ new Arsenal 1 facility in Ohio. The other issue is that the focus has been on what the military call ‘ISR’ – Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance or scout drones. These are designed to be reusable and, as the military requires, they are built to the highest possible standards. When these are converted into one-way attack drones, also known as loitering munitions, the result is a seriously expansive single-use item.

“You get something priced similar to traditional missile systems which blows up a ridiculously expensive set of components every time they are used,” says Monroe-Anderson. “It mainly comes down to the DoD’s willingness to pay for extremely expensive systems.”

Neros started with a clean sheet and with scalability in mind. Even in Ukraine, Soren -Anderson was struck by the lack of assembly-line style operations in the FPV industry, as well as the fact that even largest producers were using hobbyist-style drone configurations systems, which were not well suited for large-scale production.

“We’ve had the mandate of mass-manufacturing from day one of the company and built our product and factory around this,” says Soren Anderson. “We’ve done away with many of the hobbyist quirks of FPV drones to make a product that is more manufacturable while still being modular and repairable.”

Enter the Archer

The fruit of this design process is an FPV attack drone called Archer, an 8” FPV which “exceeds state of the art performance” (one senses Soren-Anderson’s competitive racing instinct at work) and carries a 2 kg/4.5-pound warhead to a range of over 20 kilometers/12 miles. It is supplied with two different batteries depending on the mission

Archer flies day and night, and in adverse weather conditions. It operates on multiple control frequencies and has a wide-band video transmitter. Radio-frequency jamming is the bane of drones and reportedly prevents a large proportion of FPVs from reaching their targets. It has been a particular challenge for US-made systems, like the Skydio drones which were reportedly vulnerable to jamming.

“Jamming is a problem for everyone, including us, but we have shown very strong results,” says Soren-Anderson. “Because we design all our radios ourselves and have been learning from what works in Ukraine for over a year, we are using a completely different setup than other US drone companies. This goes back to my point on not relying on other companies for core capabilities.”

The Ukraine contract does not include payloads. As with other FPVs, the Ukrainians will use their own locally-made warheads, but there are other options.

“Neros is working on purpose-built, lethal payloads with our partner, Kraken Kinetics,” says Monroe-Anderson. “We’ve seen that the system as a whole is much more performant when the drone and warhead are designed together, so we’ve put a large priority on this effort.”

All this highly capable technology sounds good. But can Neros tackle the other major issue of U.S. drones: prices which make them unaffordable in large numbers? Some have been known to cost more than their weight in gold.

“Archer is an order of magnitude cheaper than other small drones on the BlueUAS list,” says Soren-Anderson.

That means that Archer can be acquired in volume. The 6,000 for Ukraine are being bought by the International Drone Capability Coalition, which does not have the Pentagon’s drone budget. The low cost also simplifies training as users do not need to worry about crashing expensive hardware.

There are plans for the future, but for now Neros is all about Archer.

“We are extremely focused on making the most capable and manufacturable FPV system in the Western world,” says Soren Anderson. “Aside from this contract from the IDCC, Archer was just made the first FPV drone added to the BlueUAS list. “

This is the list of drones approved for purchase by U.S, government agencies, set up due to the security concerns over Chinese models. There are already potential customers for Archer in the Marine Corps, Air Force, Army and Special Forces.

Monroe-Anderson is proud of Neros’ progress. But he knows there is a lot of catching up to do when Russia is already making so many drones.

“Our adversaries can produce ms of FPVs,” he says. “Right now, the US military is way behind most of the world in using FPV drones, and we want to fix this.” (Source: UAS VISION/Forbes)

 

24 Feb 25. Three years of bloodshed forcing Russia to put mass ahead of quality, MOD reports. After three years of war, Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine has resulted in hundreds of thousands of casualties and left the country relying on mass to win, according to UK intelligence. Russia’s armed forces are believed to have suffered more than 860,000 casualties and have lost over 12,000 tanks and vehicles.

“After three years of the conflict, Russia’s land forces have been radically altered by the pressures of carrying out operations in Ukraine,” the Ministry of Defence said in its latest intelligence update.

• Huge achievements made by Op Interflex as Ukraine marks third year of war
• We need more air defence systems after largest drone attack of war, insists Zelensky
• Starmer reassures Zelensky that Britain is offering ironclad support for Ukraine

“Pre-invasion attempts to build a modern, professional force capable of carrying out complex operations have been reversed by substantial losses.

“Russia is now reliant on mass over-quality to prosecute operations against Ukraine.

“Russia’s personnel casualties of over 860,000 killed and wounded have undermined Russia’s force quality.

“Most personnel currently serving in the Russian military have received minimal training, and Russian commanders use basic tactics to make advances, despite the associated high casualty rates.

“Russia has lost at least 3,750 main battle tanks and 8,400 armoured vehicles.

“Large stockpiles of tanks and armoured vehicles, a legacy of the Soviet Union, have been the only means for Russia to be able to replenish these major losses.”

But while Russia has lost a significant number of troops, its armed forces are continuing to put Ukrainian soldiers under constant pressure.

Moscow was able to advance through Ukrainian territory throughout 2024, but so far this year the drive has slowed.

Continued attacks have been underpinned by the Russian leadership’s tolerance for casualties, and President Putin is hoping to overwhelm Ukraine by using superior numbers, the MOD concluded. (Source: forces.net)

 

24 Feb 25. The US and Europe are battling in the UN and G7 over whether to blame Russia for its war against Ukraine, as President Donald Trump’s rapid shift on the conflict threatens to tear apart western unity. The Trump administration and the EU have proposed rival UN resolutions for a general assembly vote on Monday, while G7 diplomats spent the weekend haggling over whether a joint statement due to be released by the group of rich nations would refer to Russia’s “aggression” against Ukraine or not. Officials said the stand-off could reach the UN Security Council, with the US possibly siding with Russia and China against a western European-backed show of support for Kyiv. “If [we] look at the messages that come from the United States, then it is clear that the Russian narrative is, there, very strongly represented,” the EU’s chief diplomat Kaja Kallas told reporters on Monday when asked if she believed the Trump administration was acting in Russia’s interests. Trump’s push for a rapid end to the war, his opening of bilateral peace talks with Russia and his escalating war of words with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have torn up three years of united western condemnations of Moscow’s invasion in February 2022 and the brutal war that followed. In a move to commemorate the war’s third anniversary, Ukraine and the EU have co-authored a UN resolution that condemns Russia’s invasion, which is set for a vote by the body’s 193 members on Monday afternoon. The US has called for that resolution to be withdrawn, according to two officials briefed on the discussions. Washington has instead proposed its own text, which equates Ukraine’s actions with Russia’s and mourns “the tragic loss of life across the Russian Federation-Ukraine conflict”, according to one of the people. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s chief diplomat, said: ‘If [we] look at the messages that come from the United States, then it is clear that the Russian narrative is, there, very strongly represented’ © Yves Herman/Reuters “This [US] wording is obviously unacceptable to us,” the person said. “It’s all linked together and part of the wider shift in position by the US.” Potential votes on both the European and US resolutions will follow the planned release of a G7 statement as part of a virtual meeting between the group’s leaders earlier on Monday afternoon. The UN Security Council is also set to vote on the US resolution later on Monday afternoon, two officials said. (Source: FT.com)

 

24 Feb 25. Huge achievements made by Op Interflex as Ukraine marks third year of war. As Ukraine marks the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the UK-led Operation Interflex has proven to be a critical pillar of support, strengthening Ukraine’s Armed Forces and significantly enhancing their battlefield capabilities. Since its launch in June 2022, Operation Interflex has trained 51,000 Ukrainian recruits, transforming them from civilians into combat-ready soldiers. The programme, which was originally designed as a five-week basic infantry course, has continuously adapted to Ukraine’s evolving needs, ensuring troops receive the most relevant and effective training. Recruits are taught weapons handling, battlefield first aid, the law of armed conflict, patrol tactics and rural environment awareness during the course. More than 1,000 British military personnel have been deployed to lead the programme, providing each recruit with between 65 and 75 pieces of essential kit worth £4,500.   Recognising the growing demands of the war, the UK expanded Interflex in early 2023 to include training for Ukrainian fast jet pilots and marines. Over 1,000 Ukrainian marines have since been trained by the Royal Marines and Army Commandos, further strengthening Ukraine’s ability to defend its territory. Interflex has also produced over 500 combat medics, trained combat engineers, and trained crews how to use the 14 UK-supplied Challenger 2 main battle tanks.  Furthermore, over 50 Ukrainian healthcare professionals including emergency/trauma surgical teams have been trained. According to the National Audit Office, nearly 90% of Ukrainian troops trained under Operation Interflex reported feeling better prepared for the realities of combat. The skills and experience gained through the programme have directly contributed to Ukraine’s resilience on the battlefield. Beyond training, the UK has provided more than £12.8bn in aid to Ukraine since the war began, including £7.8bn in military assistance. As the conflict continues, Operation Interflex remains a vital component of Ukraine’s defence, ensuring its soldiers are equipped with the knowledge, skills and confidence to fight against Russian aggression. (Source: forces.net)

 

24 Feb 25. Troop rotations, depriving VKS are key to Ukraine survival. The military situation sours for Ukraine, resisting invading Russian forces, as the conflict now reaches its three-year anniversary. Three years on, Russia has gained the initiative over Ukraine – politically and militarily. Invading Russian forces are making slow gains across Eastern Ukraine: Russian forces have lately levelled the frontline west of Kurakhove, where they have established more defensible positions. Meanwhile, talks for a hurried peace settlement began in Saudi Arabia last week, which overtly sidelined Ukraine altogether, as Russia and the US vie over the future of the war-torn nation. In accepting that Ukraine’s fate has fallen to the whims of foreign interests, then the belittled nation will need to strengthen its hand as much as possible on the ground. In a panel discussion among security experts from the London-based Royal United Services Institute, days ahead of the conflict’s three-year mark (24 February 2025), Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences, noted that success for Ukraine depends on directing troop rotations on the frontline and depriving the Russian Air Force (VKS) of its stand-off strike capability.

In the last year or so, it appears that Ukraine’s government has begun to lean more heavily on mobilisation: as demonstrated by the launch of recruitment and conscription apps such as Army+ and Reserve+, and subsequent efforts to update these digital platforms. Towards the end of 2024, Ukrainian losses ranged between the low tens of thousands to in excess of 150,000. Overwhelmed by a much larger army, Ukraine is finding it difficult to plug holes in skills and manpower along the frontline where success is measured in yards.

“Though there are sufficient available people in the general Ukrainian population, the challenge that they face immediately is one of morale and then training to take raw recruits and turn them to into effective fighting forces, and then retain them by reducing desertion rates,” Savill observed.

“If there is a coordinated effort on equipping and training, particularly that rotates Ukrainian units off the line, reequips them, and brings them back up to strength,” he intimated, “they can continue to hold out this year.”

Ukraine has not been able to rotate troops as often as it would like, which has had a debilitating affect on morale. “It can be extremely mentally taxing to spend every day on the frontline,” noted the GlobalData defence analyst, Fox Walker.

“Extended periods in a high-intensity warfare environment can cause well-trained, well-equipped soldiers to make mistakes. The feeling that you will never return to ‘normal’ life until the war ends or you die can lead some soldiers to lose motivation,” Walker added.

US approval for Ukraine to deploy long-range weapons inside Russian territory came too late in November 2024. Glide bombs pose a formidable threat to Ukrainian strategic targets, fixed installations, and critical national infrastructure. A deep strike capability may be a potential, pre-emptive solution. Russian forces use these pre-programmed, fixed-wing weapons from a distance, often from behind their own lines. The enemy has managed to get the range of some of these systems up to maybe 70 kilometres; they can launch glide bombs from an aircraft out of the range of Ukrainian air defences. At present, Russia have an ongoing order for up to 70,000 glide bombs next year.

“So the best way [to deal with the threat], at the moment, is probably to directly target the air bases of the VKS and their fuel supplies, where they’re armed – essentially reduce the number of Russian Air Force sorties that can be launched,” Savill determined.

“Once they are in the air, if the aircraft are safe, the glide bomb itself is quite hard to detect and intercept, but not impossible. So the next step is, if you can’t hit the aircraft on the ground, and you can’t destroy their arms dumps, sensors and other detection networks can give you enough warning that you can effectively take the pre-emptive measures.”

Ukraine has already deployed its own, indigenous long-range capabilities inside Russia with limited success. Last year, the war-torn nation started producing its own sovereign deep strike weapon, which is a hybrid cruise missile and a long-range drone called the ‘Paliantsyia’.

“So the Ukrainian deep strike programme, if it can be ramped up against VKS targets, could really hurt them,” Savill asserted. “We have seen sabotage and other attacks in the past that actually got after Russian bombers and forced them to relocate literally thousands of kilometeres away to the other end of Russia. More of that could also help.” (Source: army-technology.com)

 

21 Feb 25. Cuashub.com said today that Russia’s new Geran-3 Shahed’s pose challenge for Ukraine’s air defenses. Russia’s newly developed turbojet-powered Shahed-238 drones, also known as Geran-3, will present a significant challenge for Ukraine’s air defenses, requiring advanced anti-aircraft missile systems rather than mobile fire groups, according to analysts. The report follows confirmation from Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR) on Feb. 18 that Russia is ramping up production of the Geran-3 drone, a clone of the Iranian Shahed-238 UAS. Intelligence also revealed efforts to modernize the older Shahed-136 model and Russia’s continued attempts to obscure the origin of drone components. The Geran-3 is expected to feature the Iranian Tolou-10/13 turbojet engine, enabling the drone to reach speeds of 550-600 km/h and a range of up to 2,500 km. These capabilities mark a significant advancement over the propeller-driven Shahed-136, making the new model harder to intercept. Russia’s initial use of the Iranian Shahed-238 for strikes on Ukraine was recorded in late 2023, shortly after Iran officially unveiled the updated Shahed drone in the fall of that year. Despite the confirmed engine type, it remains unclear what kind of electronics Russia will install in the Geran-3 drones. Ukraine’s HUR has emphasized that the UAS’ reliance on Iranian components highlights Moscow’s ongoing dependence on Tehran’s military technology. The destructive power of the Geran-3 also remains uncertain, as there is no confirmed information about the warhead type. However, experts agree that with a top speed of 600 km/h, these drones will be far more difficult for Ukraine’s mobile fire groups, which typically rely on small arms and helicopters to counter Shahed drones, to intercept.

Military analysts have identified several weapons systems capable of countering the Geran-3 drones, including:

• Man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS)
• Traditional air defense complexes
• British Grawehawk systems
• German Gepard anti-aircraft guns
• Other air defense systems proven effective against Russian cruise missiles

As Russia intensifies its drone production and modernization efforts, Ukraine may need to further bolster its air defense capabilities to address the growing threat posed by the high-speed Geran-3 UAS.

https://cuashub.com/en/content/russias-new-geran-3-shaheds-pose-challenge-for-ukraines-air-defenses/ (Source: https://cuashub.com/)

 

25 Feb 25. Cuashub.com said today that Ukraine steps up drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has confirmed that Ukrainian drones struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery in Russia during the night of February 23-24. The attack, carried out by the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) in coordination with Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, targeted a key Russian energy facility believed to be supplying fuel to the Russian military. According to Ukraine’s General Staff, five explosions were recorded in the vicinity of the Ryazan refinery in Ryazan Oblast. The strike resulted in a fire at the ELOU AT-6 primary oil refining unit, with Ukrainian authorities working to confirm the full extent of the damage. This marks the second confirmed attack on the Ryazan refinery in just over a month, following a previous drone strike on January 24 that also caused a fire. Russian social media channels corroborated reports of the latest attack, sharing unverified footage of the strikes. In addition to the Ryazan refinery strike, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces targeted an oil depot in the Tula region on January 23. A fire broke out in the area of the 8 March plant in the village of Brusyansky, Uzlovsky district, according to reports from the head of the Center for Occupation Studies, Petro Andriushchenko. A video of the attack circulated online, adding visual confirmation of the strike. Russian officials reported that two Ukrainian UAS were downed in the area, though the extent of the resulting damage remains unclear. Andriushchenko noted that Ukrainian drones continue to penetrate Russian air defenses, striking deep into Russian-controlled territory.

“This marks the first relatively large-scale attack of our UAVs on Russian territory since the night of February 19-20,” Andriushchenko wrote on Telegram.

Ukraine has increasingly relied on long-range drone strikes to target Russian energy infrastructure, a move aimed at disrupting Moscow’s logistics and supply chains. These attacks come as Kyiv seeks to weaken Russia’s war effort by hitting key military and economic assets far beyond the front lines. https://cuashub.com/en/content/ukraine-steps-up-drone-strikes-on-russian-energy-infrastructure/ (Source: https://cuashub.com/)

 

24 Feb 25. UK announces largest sanctions package against Russia since 2022. Three years on from President Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the UK has today imposed over 100 new sanctions directly targeting those who continue to aid the invasion.

• 107 new sanctions announced as UK unleashes our largest sanctions package since the early days of the invasion.
• Milestone package targets Russian military supply chains, revenues fuelling Putin’s illegal war, and Kleptocrats driving profits for the Kremlin.
• Strengthening Ukraine’s hand will help to build a secure and prosperous Europe and UK – a foundation of the government’s Plan for Change.

Today’s measures will target funds going into Putin’s war chest and propping up Russia’s kleptocratic system.    As the Prime Minister said last week, we are facing a once in a generation moment for the collective security of our continent.  The UK is working with our Allies to put Ukraine in the best position to achieve peace through strength. Today’s action is a further step towards this.   The sanctions will also target Russia’s military machine, entities in third countries who support it and the fragile supply networks that it relies on.

Targets include:

• Producers and suppliers of machine tools, electronics and dual-use goods for Russia’s military, including microprocessors used in weapons systems. These are based in a range of third countries including Central Asian states, Turkey, Thailand, India and China, which is the largest supplier of critical goods for Russia’s military.
• North Korean Defence Minister No Kwang Chol and other North Korean generals and senior officials complicit in deploying over 11,000 DPRK forces to Russia. Putin is using DPRK forces as cannon fodder; DPRK has suffered over 4,000 casualties.
• 13 Russian targets, including LLC Grant-Trade, its owner Marat Mustafaev and his sister Dinara Mustafaeva, who have used the company to funnel advanced European technology into Russia to support its illegal war.

For the first time, we are also using new powers to target foreign financial institutions supporting Russia’s war machine.  We are sanctioning the Kyrgyzstan-based OJSC Keremet Bank, disrupting Russia’s use of the international financial system to support its war efforts.

Foreign Secretary, David Lammy said: “Today’s action, the largest in almost three years, underscores the UK’s commitment to Ukraine.     Every military supply line disrupted, every rouble blocked, and every enabler of Putin’s aggression exposed is a step towards a just and lasting peace, and towards security and prosperity in the UK as a part of this government’s Plan for Change.  Lasting peace will only be achieved through strength. That is why we are focused on putting Ukraine in the strongest possible position.       As the world marks the grim milestone of Putin’s full-scale invasion entering its fourth year, we cannot and will not turn our backs on Ukraine in their fight for our shared security. Keeping the country safe is the Government’s first priority and an integral part of the Prime Minister’s Plan for Change. Sanctions against Russia’s military machine and the revenues fuelling it will improve the chances of a just and lasting peace in Ukraine, which will benefit security and prosperity in the UK.   The new sanctions will put further pressure on Putin’s energy revenues, the most vital source of funding for his illegal invasion. They include specification of another 40 ‘shadow fleet’ ships carrying Russian oil. These vessels have collectively carried more than $5 bn worth of Russian oil and oil products in the last six months alone. The specifications bring the total number of oil tankers sanctioned by the UK to 133 – the highest of any nation in Europe.   Finally, we are sanctioning 14 ‘New Kleptocrats’, some of whom are fronting up strategic sectors of Russia’s economy.  Among them are Roman Trotsenko, one of the wealthiest men in Russia, worth £2.2bn.   After three years of the full-scale invasion, Ukrainians continue to defend their country and way of life with ingenuity and courage. They have shown that with the right support they can defend themselves against Russian aggression. Today’s action will strengthen Ukraine’s hand at a critical time in their fight for our shared security.” (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

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