NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Feb 21.

Ukraine-US: Possible critical minerals deal in near term will moderately lower bilateral tensions. Reports emerged on 20 February that the administration of US President Donald Trump has offered Ukraine a revised draft minerals agreement. According to unnamed insiders, US officials presented Ukraine with an updated version which addressed several of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s concerns and removed various unsatisfactory articles. The recent revisions have reportedly increased the likelihood of the deal being agreed upon. Zelensky rejected the initial agreement, which would have granted the US 50% ownership of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals due to concerns it would not protect Ukrainian interests. Washington DC had viewed the arrangement as a way for Kyiv to repay the US for its support since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. It reportedly did not mention the provision of future assistance. We assess that Ukraine will possibly sign a minerals agreement in the coming weeks and months to ease strained ties with the US as part of wider efforts to secure continued military support and, most critically, post-war security guarantees.

Feb 20.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

STRIKES: The large number of UAVs used in recent Russian strikes against Ukraine possibly indicate continued growth in Russa’s drone production capacities
PEACEKEEPING: UK Prime Minister Sir Kier Starmer will reportedly present a US President Donald Trump with a prospective European-led peacekeeping plan for Ukraine when the two leaders meet in Washington DC next week
ELECTIONS: Comments made by US President Donald Trump indicate that his administration will possibly maintain pressure on Ukraine to hold elections to facilitate a future peace plan
FORECAST: Top Russian and US officials held consultations over the prospect of negotiations to end the war in Ukraine; despite this, Russia likely maintains is maximalist war objectives
BAKHMUT: Geolocated footage published on 17, 18 and 19 February indicates that Russian forces have made limited advances in and around Toretsk in recent days. Russian forces have advanced in eastern Shcherbynivka and in south-western Novospaske (both of which are located to the west of Toretsk) as well as in northern Toretsk itself. Nonetheless, the territory to the west of Toretsk remains contested, with geolocated imagery posted on 19 February indicating that Ukrainian forces advanced in eastern Shcherbynivka. Meanwhile, along the northern flank of the Bakhmut sector, a map posted by the Ukrainian General Staff indicates that Russian forces have advanced north of Mykolaiv, which is located to the south-west of Siversk.
DONETSK: Over the past few days, Russian forces advanced in the Pokrovsk sector, primarily by using small infantry groups. Geolocated footage from 19 February shows Russian advances north of Nadiivka, which is located to the south-west of Pokrovsk. On 20 February, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Pokrovsk sector remains one of the most active areas of the frontline, with 32 clashes recorded over the past 24 hours. A spokesperson for a Ukrainian unit operating in the area noted that Russian attacks typically involve small infantry groups using civilian vehicles confiscated from Ukrainian civilians in occupied territories. These comments likely highlight growing shortages of armoured vehicles due to the highly attritional nature of Russian offensive tactics.
KHARKIV: Nothing significant to report
KURSK: According to the head of the Russian General Staff’s main operational directorate, Colonel General Sergei Rudskoi, Russian forces have retaken 309 square miles (800 square metres) of territory from Ukrainian forces in Kursk oblast (Russia) since the Ukrainian incursion was launched in 2024. This amounts to approximately 64% of the territory that Ukrainian forces seized in Kursk oblast. Meanwhile, Russian forces have continued offensive operations in recent days but have not achieved any significant advances.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Over the past few days, Russia has continued to advance in the Borova direction. Russian forces recently captured Zeleny Hai, located to the east of Borova. Geolocated footage from 18 February also confirms Russian progress south-west of Lozova, which is located to the north-east of Borova.
SOUTHERN: Russian forces have likely achieved limited advances in both southern Donetsk oblast and Zaporizhzhia oblast over the past week. Geolocated footage posted on 15 and 16 February indicates that Russian forces advanced to south-eastern Novoocheretuvate and south-west of Novyi Komar, both of which are located to the north of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast). Meanwhile, in Zaporizhzhia oblast, a map published by the Ukrainian General Staff on 18 February indicates that Russian forces have likely advanced south-east of Mala Tokmachka, which is located to the north-east of Robotyne.
STRIKES: Over the past few days, Russia has launched large-scale drone strikes combined with a variable number of missiles. Early on 18 February, Russia launched in all 178 drones (Shahed-136/131 and decoy drones). Overnight on 18-19 February, Russia launched 167 drones and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles. A large number of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) targeted Odesa (Odesa Oblast), where damage to energy infrastructure caused significant power blackouts. The Sumy Oblast authorities reported that a Russian ballistic missile struck the suburbs of Sumy near an unspecified critical infrastructure facility.
STRIKES: Earlier on 20 February, Russia launched a high-intensity combined strike involving in all 161 UAVs and 14 missiles of various types. The missiles included Kh-101/Kh-55SM missiles, Kalibr/Iskander-K cruise missiles and Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles. The attack primarily targeted Ukrainian gas infrastructure, though the Ukrainian authorities did not disclose the location of the damaged facilities. Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko stated that these attacks reflect Moscow’s goal of disrupting gas production intended for household needs. The nature of the targets clearly reflects Moscow’s strategy of undermining the country’s energy security and, more broadly, degrading the morale of the population.
STRIKES: We assess that Russia will possibly launch high-intensity combined drone and missile strikes around the anniversary of the war on 24 February. Such attacks would likely target energy infrastructure and pose elevated security threats to urban centres, including the capital Kyiv. Such threats will stem from falling projectile debris in addition to direct hits.
STRIKES: The latest attacks have involved a very large number of UAVs, highlighting Russia’s continued expansion of its drone capabilities. Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) reported on 18 February that Shahed-136/131 drones now feature a heavier warhead and additional ballast, doubling their explosive capacity. This has increased the lethality of Russian UAV attacks, even though Kyiv continues to maintain a relatively high interception rate. However, the increased payload has reportedly reduced the drone’s range from 839 miles (1,350km) to about 404 miles (650km). Russia’s ongoing innovation in strike tactics and technology will continue to pose a significant challenge to Ukrainian air defence capabilities.
STRIKES: Meanwhile, Ukraine continued to record successful drone strikes against oil facilities supplying Russian forces. Overnight on 18-19 February, Ukrainian forces struck the Rosneft Syzran Oil Refinery in Syzran (Russia’s Samara oblast). Andrii Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine’s Centre for Countering Disinformation, stated that the facility produces bitumen, fuel and jet fuel. The refinery reportedly suspended oil processing operations following the strike.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

PEACEKEEPING: According to the Telegraph newspaper, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will present US President Donald Trump with a plan for a prospective European-led peacekeeping force in Ukraine when the two leaders meet in Washington DC next week. According to the report, Starmer will propose that less than 30,000 European troops, likely led by the UK and France, could be deployed in Ukraine in return for US aerial protection for such a deployment in case Russia were to violate the terms of any future peace agreement. Additionally, it would reportedly involve deployments to critical infrastructure such as cities, nuclear power stations and ports, as opposed to deployments near the lines of control.
PEACEKEEPING: The reported proposal represents an attempt to ensure US involvement in any future peacekeeping arrangement (if a deal to end the conflict is reached) amid growing unease in European capitals over the US’s commitment to Ukraine. It comes after US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth told European leaders on 12 February that the US troops would not deploy to Ukraine in a peacekeeping role after Russia and the US held consultations on the topic of ending the war in Ukraine without European or Ukrainian participation (see FORECAST).
ELECTIONS: On 19 February, Trump erroneously called his Ukrainian counterpart, President Volodymyr Zelensky, a ‘dictator’ and stated that he refuses to hold elections despite the fact these cannot take place under martial law. The comments were made in response to Zelesnky stating that Trump lives in a ‘disinformation space’ after Trump alleged that Zelensky’s approval rating stood at 4%. However, polling from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) published on 19 February found that 57% of Ukrainians trust their president, an increase of 5% from December 2024.
ELECTIONS: Ultimately, such comments indicate that Trump will likely maintain calls for Ukraine to hold elections as part of a peace plan or as a prerequisite for a strategic settlement. US pressure on this topic will highly likely increase should spats between Zelensky and Trump become more frequent over the coming months. At the same time, similar comments from senior US officials undermining Zelensky’s mandate will fuel Russian narratives about the Ukrainian president’s legitimacy. For further analysis, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 30 January 2025.
DIPLOMACY: Meanwhile, Trump disclosed on 18 February that he will ‘probably’ meet Russian President Vladimir Putin before the end of the month. However, he did not mention a specific date or location. Meanwhile, Putin said on 19 February that he would ‘gladly’ meet his US counterpart but emphasised that this must be carefully prepared for it to be successful. Russia would almost certainly attempt to frame a summit between Putin and Trump as evidence of Moscow’s diminishing global diplomatic isolation and a growing Transatlantic divide. We assess that a possible meeting in the coming weeks would further strain the Trump administration’s relations with Zelensky and Kyiv’s European partners, particularly if no meeting between the Ukrainian and US presidents is scheduled.

FORECAST

NEGOTIATIONS: On 18 February, senior Russian and US officials met in Saudi Arabia for talks about the war in Ukraine without Ukrainian participation. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and presidential aide Yuri Ushakov represented the Russian side. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff participated on the US side. Ushakov described the talks relatively positively but said it was difficult to tell whether the two sides’ interests were converging.

Although the high-level talks mark a significant step in re-establishing contact between Moscow and Washington DC since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, these represent early consultations aimed at ending the war. Russian and US officials have acknowledged that further contact is necessary to end the war, with Rubio stating that the talks were the ‘first step of a long and difficult journey’ to ending the conflict. Officials present at the talks agreed to appoint high-level teams to begin working towards an end to the war as soon as possible ‘in a way that is enduring, sustainable and acceptable to all sides’. However, we continue to assess that the terms Russia would find acceptable to end the war on differ significantly from Ukraine’s position, with Moscow yet to show any genuine willingness to compromise to reach peace.

Reports from 18 February state that unspecified US and Western intelligence assesses that Russia is not interested in a ‘real peace deal’ currently. Six unnamed officials disclosed that Russia still believes it can wait out Europe and Kyiv to eventually control all of Ukraine. They also assessed the possibility that Moscow could agree to a ceasefire and broader peace deal because it would grant Russian forces time to reset and regroup. The report largely aligns with our assessment that Russia still maintains maximalist war objectives and seeks a peace deal which significantly weakens Ukrainian security, leaving it vulnerable to renewed aggression.

Russia’s participation in recent talks was highly likely (at least partially) aimed at gauging the extent to which the US would be willing to meet Russian demands to end the war. Moscow will likely continue to feign interest in maintaining contact with the US and facilitating steps towards peace in the coming days and weeks to give the impression that Russia is committed to the process. At the same time, Russian officials will highly likely continue to make statements discrediting Ukraine’s supposed lack of interest in peace as a means to bolster its projection as a rational actor to negotiate with. This will likely be carried out with the aim of making Russia’s terms for peace seem more credible and reasonable to the US and other international actors.

The Russia-US talks have almost certainly elevated concerns in Europe and Ukraine about the possibility of their involvement in the peace process being sidelined. The EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, warned on 18 February that Russia will ‘try to divide’ European and US unity. Kallas urged for the two sides to work together to achieve a ‘just and lasting peace’ on Ukraine’s terms. Meanwhile, on 19 February, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda proposed several steps to support Ukraine and bolster European security. These include offering ‘real’ security guarantees for Kyiv, specifically financial support for Ukraine’s domestic defence industry, keeping NATO membership open and urgent funding for weapons.

The potentially significant policy shift under Trump regarding ending the war and engagement with Russia will likely sustain a flurry of European action with the aim of ensuring security in Ukraine and across the wider continent. However, competing economic and political priorities will likely undermine consensus on which steps to take in the short term and the level of commitment European leaders are willing to make over the longer term. For further analysis and the prospect of troop deployments to Ukraine for peacekeeping, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 17 February 2025.

Lastly, on 19 February, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, arrived in Kyiv. Kellogg stated that his mission was mainly to listen to Ukraine’s concerns and relay them back to the White House. He also said he understood the Ukrainian need for security guarantees. Kellogg has met with Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, as well as with the heads of intelligence agencies and secret services; he is due to meet with President Zelensky later on 20 February. Kellogg’s official visit underscores the Trump administration’s aim of consulting both Russia and Ukraine about their stances on ending the war. That said, a situation in which Kellogg’s role is undermined or diminished will increase the likelihood of Russia and the US enforcing unfavourable peace terms on Ukraine over the coming months.

Feb 19.

Moldova-Ukraine: EU membership remains unlikely despite co-operation on accession process. On 18 February, Moldova and Ukraine signed a memorandum of co-operation to strengthen their efforts towards European integration and their respective bids to join the EU. The document encourages exchanging knowledge and experience of accession negotiations as well as information regarding the harmonising of national legislation with the EU, among other things. Moldova and Ukraine will also develop an action plan to implement co-operation in these fields. The EU opened accession negotiations with the two countries in June 2024; they both applied to join the bloc after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. We assess that the memorandum aims to strengthen mutual support for their respective bids for EU membership, both symbolically and through sharing knowledge. The agreement also likely seeks to hold both states accountable with regard to their progress towards making the necessary reforms for membership. That said, the probability of either country joining the EU in the foreseeable future is low.

Feb 17.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

OFFENSIVES: There are growing indications that the Russian high command is redeploying forces to the east Pokrovsk/Toretsk axis in a potential shift in Moscow’s primary military objectives for the spring 2025 fighting season
KURSK: North Korean forces appear to be adjusting their approach based on the previous months of fighting in a bid to reduce casualty rates and adapt to the modern battlefield
MINERALS: The US reportedly wants to obtain 50% ownership of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals; however, Kyiv has rejected an initial US offer amid efforts to tie such commercial agreements to wider US security guarantees
FORECAST: Top Russian and US diplomats will meet in Saudi Arabia, in the capital Riyadh, on 18 February for discussions to lay the groundwork for eventual peace talks, amid an emergency European summit in France, in the capital Paris
OFFENSIVES: There are growing indications that the Russian high command is redeploying forces to the east Pokrovsk/Toretsk axis in a potential shift in Moscow’s primary military objectives for the spring 2025 fighting season. This indicates that Moscow will likely begin focusing operations in this direction in a bid to set conditions for advances to the southern approaches to the Ukrainian urban belt running from Kostiantynivka to Sloviansk. Ukrainian milblogger Kostyantyn Mashovets, who has established connections to the Ukrainian military, reported on 16 February that elements of Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA) are redeploying from positions south-west of Pokrovsk (Donetsk axis) to Toretsk and the area due to the west, which notably focuses on the T-0504 highway that connects Pokrovsk in the south-west to Kostiantynivka and eventually Chasiv Yar in the east. It remains increasingly likely that Russian forces are hoping to close the pocket south of Oleksandro-Kaltynove (located to the south-west of Kostiantynivka) and advance north along the H-20 highway towards Kostiantynivka. However, to achieve this, Russian forces will likely need to consolidate control over the outskirts of Toretsk, which Ukrainian forces continue to contest. Russian forces have made few confirmed advances in Toretsk in recent days amid continued Ukrainian counter-attacks.
OFFENSIVES: It remains a realistic possibility that Russian forces will seek to intensify operations in the coming weeks despite extremely high casualty rates and vehicle losses; Russia aims to strengthen its negotiation position if peace talks make headway in the coming months. On 15 February, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops have significantly intensified attacks in recent days, recording some 250 separate ‘clashes’ over the previous 24-hour period. While the majority of these attacks took place in the Pokrovsk direction, it remains possible that if further units are redeployed to the Toretsk direction, this would indicate a significant shift in Russia’s primary military objectives in the coming months. However, the urban belt likely represents Ukraine’s most heavily defended and defensible locations in Donetsk oblast and would, therefore, likely require a significant Russian commitment to make serious progress in the coming year.
BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
DONETSK: Over the past few days, Ukraine has reportedly recaptured a settlement in the Pokrovsk sector, amid further Russian gains further south. On 16 February, Viktor Trehubov, spokesperson for the Khortytsia Group of Forces, reported that Ukrainian forces recaptured the settlement of Pishchane, located to the south-east of Pokrovsk and pushed back Russian forces from nearby positions. Meanwhile, Russian forces made limited confirmed gains over the past few days. Geolocated footage from 14 February shows that Russian forces made marginal progress north of Yelyzavetivka, to the north-east of Pokrovsk. The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed the capture of Zelene Pole and Berezivka, both located to the north-east of Pokrovsk; such claims remain visually unconfirmed. While Russian gains have slowed, the offensive tempo of its operations remains high in the Pokrovsk sector.
DONETSK: Further to the south, Russian forces continued to advance in the Kurakhove sector and have likely begun closing the Dachne pocket, where Ukrainian counter-attacks also continue to slow Russian gains. Geolocated footage from 16 February shows recent advances to the south-east of Ulakly, located to the west of Kurakhove. Russian forces are likely beginning to close the Dachne pocket (located to the west of Kurakhove) unless Ukrainian forces have already withdrawn from the area. Nevertheless, according to geolocated footage posted on 14 February, Ukrainian forces previously advanced north-east of Zelenivka, a settlement located to the west of Kurakhove and immediately to the south of Ulakly. This indicates that Ukrainian efforts to counter-attack and slow Russia’s advances are succeeding, at least temporarily, in places.
KHARKIV: Nothing significant to report
KURSK: Geolocated footage published on 13, 15 and 16 February indicates that Russian forces have continued to make advances in Kursk in recent days amid indications that North Korean forces are learning lessons and adapting their tactics. However, footage from 13 February indicated that Ukrainian forces also made some advances, underscoring Ukraine’s ability to continue launching limited counter-attacks in the area that will continue to slow Russian efforts to push Ukrainian forces back.
KURSK: The deputy commander of a Ukrainian battalion fighting in Kursk claimed on 16 February that North Korean forces recently restarted assaults in groups of between 10-15 personnel, attacking in more dispersed and spread-out formations. This strongly aligns with our assessment that a recent North Korean tactical pause in Kursk was part of an effort to recalibrate North Korean assault tactics to factor in the saturation of UAVs on the battlefield and to reduce losses during future attacks. If these reports are accurate, it would indicate that North Korean forces are internalising the lessons learned during combat operations in recent months and are adjusting their tactics to more closely resemble those of their Russian allies.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: Russian long-range attacks over the past few days have solely involved drones, which were nevertheless launched in large numbers. Although Ukraine continues to record a relatively high interception rate, with a large number of drones also reported lost, the attacks have caused damage to various energy infrastructure facilities across the country.
STRIKES: Notably, the Russian attack on 17 February involved in all 147 drones, with Ukraine’s state-owned energy operator reporting hits on some of its facilities, prompting the company to introduce power outages. Similarly, DTEK, a private Ukrainian energy operator, also implemented energy outages in the capital Kyiv, as well as in the broader Kyiv oblast and Dnipropetrovsk oblast.
STRIKES: Meanwhile, Ukraine continued its long-range drone campaign, launching in all up to 90 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) early on 17 February, according to Russia’s MoD. The Russian MoD reported that the 90 UAVs were intercepted over the Azov Sea, occupied Crimea, the Black Sea, Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk and Bryansk oblasts, as well as Krasnodar krai. The regional authorities in Krasnodar krai reported damage to residential houses. Independent online media outlets reported that a Ukrainian drone struck the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). The Caspian Pipeline Consortium is Kazakhstan’s main oil export pipeline to Russia; the damage to the infrastructure resulted in reduced oil flows.
STRIKES: Previously overnight on 14-15 February, Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a drone strike against Volgograd City and Lukoil’s Volgograd Oil Refinery in Volgograd City. Explosions were recorded in Volgograd city; the Volgograd oblast authorities reported that falling drone debris caused a fire in the industrial zone of the city.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

MINERALS: The US wants to obtain 50% ownership of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals; officials have reportedly signalled a willingness to deploy US troops to safeguard them if a deal is met with Russia to end the war. NBC shared details of the arrangement on 15 February, citing unnamed US officials. According to them, the agreement would be a way for Kyiv to reimburse Washington DC for the weapons and aid it has provided since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent presented the proposal to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on 12 February, though he declined to sign it, then given the need to review it and consult others first.
MINERALS: Zelensky rejected the draft deal in hopes that European and US security guarantees will be tied directly to any deal on mineral reserves. According to a report from the Financial Times (FT) on 15 February, the arrangement only referenced the US obtaining Ukrainian resources in exchange for past military assistance. It did not contain any proposals for similar future aid. Kyiv would almost certainly want to ensure continued US military support while the war is ongoing, as well as robust post-war security commitments under the deal. However, the administration of US President Donald Trump highly likely seeks to reduce its long-term commitment to Ukraine; this will lower the likelihood of such an arrangement in the coming days and weeks.
MINERALS: Details remain limited about how many US troops would be committed to guarding the resources and the location of their deployment under the arrangement; however, it remains unlikely that the US would commit to a troop deployment given wider statements by the Trump administration. Reports estimate that over half of Ukraine’s total mineral resources are within the four regions Russia annexed in September 2022 (Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts). Meanwhile, on 11 February, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth excluded the possibility of sending US troops to Ukraine, reducing the likelihood of an agreement. Nevertheless, the reports reflect the Trump administration’s transactional approach to Ukraine aid.

FORECAST

NEGOTIATIONS: Top Russian and US diplomats will meet in Saudi Arabia, in the capital Riyadh, on 18 February for high-level discussions to lay the groundwork for eventual peace talks. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and presidential aide Yuri Ushakov are due at the talks. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz are among officials expected to represent the US. The delegations will use the occasion to prepare for a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin (which will also likely take place in Saudi Arabia).

The meeting marks a significant step in re-establishing communication between Moscow and Washington DC, which has essentially been frozen since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as efforts to end the war. European and Ukrainian officials will not participate in these initial talks. Nevertheless, Rubio sought to downplay such concerns by stating that the negotiation process had not yet begun in earnest. He added that if talks progressed, Europe and Ukraine would be included. Despite such comments, the likelihood of the Trump administration and Russia reaching an agreement to end the war on terms unfavourable to Kyiv will increase should European and Ukrainian involvement be excluded or unequally included.

President Zelensky emphasised on 15 February that Kyiv would never accept any peace deal reached without Ukrainian involvement. He also said that European leaders should also take the same approach. We assess that the Trump administration’s eagerness to end the war quickly has increased the prospect of a bilateral US-Russia agreement that seeks to impose a deal on Ukraine, though this is only one possible course of action for Washington DC. Negotiations are at their very earliest phase, and further discussions could yet include Ukrainian and/or European decision-makers as part of an effort to reach a strategic settlement.

Reports indicate that the US seeks to secure a ceasefire by 20 April (Easter Day). Any agreement which prevents renewed Russian aggression that takes into consideration all parties’ perspectives to achieve a sustainable peace will highly likely take many more months than this reported deadline. As such, if a ceasefire is agreed upon by Easter, this would likely only be temporary in nature and would be at serious risk of collapse without a robust and thorough strategic settlement to end the war as a whole.

Recent developments have almost certainly raised concerns in Europe and Ukraine about the US sidelining their involvement in negotiations to end the war and the subsequent implications of a deal which undermines or ignores their interests. European leaders will gather later on 17 February in the capital Paris (France) for an emergency summit on the war in Ukraine and security in Europe. The meeting will reportedly discuss what defence capabilities Europe could provide to give Ukraine credible security guarantees, as well as a proposal whereby Kyiv would be granted automatic membership in NATO should Russia breach a future ceasefire. This latter prospect remains unlikely, given it would require consensus within the alliance as well as US approval and willingness to act in case of renewed Russian aggression. However, without meaningful costs to breaking any possible ceasefire agreement, Moscow would highly likely perceive security guarantees as an empty gesture, which would increase the likelihood of Russia attempting to test allies’ red lines and resolve in the future.

The expected attendees of the Paris summit include heads of government from Denmark, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and the UK. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte are also expected to be present. Attendees are likely to use the event to implore European leaders to take urgent measures to bolster the continent’s defence in the absence of US commitments. However, the likelihood of Europe taking such economically painful steps (which would sufficiently improve European capability in the short term) is limited, given Europe’s defence-industrial base and its lagging production capacity. Nevertheless, concerns regarding the exclusion of Europe from the peace process and diminished US involvement in European security will drive calls within European capitals to take a more assertive stance to regional defence over the coming months.

In this respect, accelerated efforts from the Trump administration to end the war have reinvigorated discussions on a European post-war peacekeeping deployment to Ukraine; the UK stated that it is prepared to deploy troops to Ukraine. On 16 February, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer explicitly stated his readiness for the first time to deploy troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force if necessary. Sweden has since said it would consider contributing to post-war peacekeeping efforts. However, the UK’s capability to deploy a sufficient force (and reserves for sufficient rotations) remains limited; it would require a wider European effort to support such a forward deployment (if such a measure formed part of peace terms).

However, Poland, which possesses NATO’s third-largest military and the alliance’s largest in Europe, has said it will not send troops to Ukraine. Prime Minister Donald Tusk said earlier on 17 February that Warsaw will support Kyiv as it has done so far without sending troops. However, he claimed that Poland would give logistical and political support to countries which want to provide peacekeepers. Poland remains amongst the most hawkish nations in Europe advocating for a strong policy towards Russia; however, it is highly likely that Poland’s need to defend its own borders with Russia (and Belarus) that likely determined Waraw’s stance against deployments to Ukraine. Germany has similarly indicated that it would only be prepared to send troops to Ukraine as part of a wider US commitment.

As such, these developments underscore that there remains a lack of European consensus on a peacekeeping mission, including among Ukraine’s strongest supporters (such as Poland). In any case, details about what a peacekeeping deployment could realistically look like and its potential remit are limited. More information will likely emerge from the Paris summit today, as well as Moscow’s position (which is highly likely to oppose such a peacekeeping force in any case, especially close to its borders). We have previously assessed the potential limited viability of a peacekeeping force in Ukraine, given those Russian objections. For more analysis, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 12 December 2024.

Russia-Ukraine-US: Start of negotiations increases likelihood of fragile ceasefire in coming months. On 18 February, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Saudi Arabia (in the capital Riyadh) to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine. Both delegations will reportedly prepare for a meeting between Russian leader Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump. European and Ukrainian officials will not participate in these initial talks, though Rubio made assurances that Europe and Ukraine will be part of future peace discussions. The meeting represents an unprecedented step in re-establishing channels of communication between Moscow and Washington DC and underscores Trump’s effort to fulfil his presidential campaign pledge to end the war in Ukraine rapidly. On 16 February, Bloomberg, citing unnamed officials, reported that Trump seeks to secure a ceasefire by 20 April. Although the upcoming meeting will increase the likelihood of an (at least temporary) ceasefire in the coming months, we continue to assess that intense fighting will likely continue at its current tempo in Ukraine. If a ceasefire is reached, its stable enforcement remains highly uncertain, particularly if Russia judges that it can continue to achieve its maximalist objectives by military means at a future date.
Georgia: Russia will highly likely attempt to sway run-off presidential vote in breakaway region. On 15 February, a presidential election was held in the pro-Russia breakaway region of Abkhazia (Georgia), which did not result in a clear victory for any candidate. Acting President Badra Gunba received over 46% of the vote, while opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba secured just under 37%. A second round is expected to take place on 1 March. Gunba previously served as vice president under former leader Aslan Bzhania, who resigned last November amid large-scale domestic unrest against an investment deal with Russia. We assess that Gunba is almost certainly the Kremlin’s favourite to win and there is a realistic possibility that he will become the next president of Abkhazia. Russia will highly likely intensify information operations and possibly agreements with the territory ahead of the run-off vote to increase the likelihood of this outcome. Although large-scale domestic unrest is unlikely in the short term should Gunba win, Russian efforts to expand its control and influence over Abkhazia will likely serve as a trigger for sporadic protests over the longer term. (Source: Sibylline)

21 Feb 25. China’s hopes to be Ukraine peacemaker collide with its goals on Trump, trade.

Summary
China focuses on economy, trade over Ukraine peace role
Preparations for negotiations over U.S. tariffs a priority for Xi
China avoids risks to maintain ties with Russia for energy
China engages more with Europe amid frosty relations

For the last three years, China has repeatedly signalled a willingness to act as a peacemaker in the war in Ukraine. There were rounds of shuttle diplomacy by Beijing’s envoy to countries from South Africa to Indonesia. A peace plan with Brazil. A group of “friends for peace” with developing nations. And even a proposal to send Chinese peacekeepers to Europe. But when Russian and U.S. officials met in Saudi Arabia this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping was nowhere near the table, instead meeting with China’s tech entrepreneurs in Beijing. China’s priorities are clear: it is focused on repairing its economy and trying to hammer out a deal with U.S. President Donald Trump to avoid another damaging trade war. (Source: Reuters)

20 Feb 25. Russia used the first round of talks with the US over ending the war in Ukraine to demand the withdrawal of Nato forces from the alliance’s eastern flank. (Source: FT.com)

20 Feb 25. Trump tells ‘dictator’ Zelenskiy to move fast or lose Ukraine.

Summary
Trump calls Zelenskiy ‘a dictator without elections’
Trump speaks after Zelenskiy accuses him of being trapped in Russian disinformation bubble
‘We will defend our right to exist,’ Ukraine’s foreign minister says in response to Trump
Putin says US-Russia trust is key to any Ukraine peace deal
EU floats plan to boost weapons supplies to Ukraine

U.S. President Donald Trump denounced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as a “dictator” on Wednesday and warned he had to move quickly to secure peace or risk losing his country, deepening a feud between the two leaders that has alarmed European officials. The extraordinary attacks – a day after Trump claimed Ukraine was to blame for Russia’s 2022 invasion – heightened concerns among U.S. allies in Europe that Trump’s approach to ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict could benefit Moscow. Less than a month into his presidency, Trump has upended U.S. policy on the war, ending a campaign to isolate Russia with a Trump-Putin phone call and talks between senior U.S. and Russian officials that have sidelined Ukraine.

“A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left,” Trump wrote on social media, using an alternate spelling for the Ukrainian president’s name.

In response, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said no one could force his country to give in.

“We will defend our right to exist,” Sybiha said on X.

Later in the day while speaking to investors and executives in Miami, Trump doubled down on his comments, again calling Zelenskiy a “dictator” and suggesting the Ukrainian president wanted to prolong the war to “keep the gravy train going,” a reference to U.S. military aid. Zelenskiy’s five-year term was supposed to end in 2024, but elections cannot be held under martial law, which Ukraine imposed in February 2022 in response to Russia’s invasion. Trump’s outburst followed Zelenskiy’s comments on Tuesday that the U.S. president was parroting Russian disinformation when he asserted that Ukraine “should never have started” the war, which began with Russia’s full-scale invasion three years ago. U.S. Vice President JD Vance on Wednesday warned Zelenskiy against “badmouthing” Trump. (Source: Reuters)

19 Feb 25. Major risks loom as Trump upends US Russia policy.

Summary
Trump has flipped the US approach toward Russia
Exclusion of Ukraine, Europe from talks stokes concerns
No evidence Putin’s war goals have changed, intelligence officials say

When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago, then-U.S. President Joe Biden took a firm stand in solidarity with Kyiv, forged a bulwark of European allies and set veteran advisers to the task of isolating Moscow economically and diplomatically.

Washington’s approach changed dramatically with Tuesday’s initial meeting between U.S. and Russian negotiators.

The officials met just a month after Donald Trump returned to the White House, with Ukraine and NATO partners sidelined by a relatively inexperienced team of Trump aides and Putin granted concessions even before the talks got under way.

Trump’s rush to impose an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine has stoked fears of a peace deal with Putin that could undermine Kyiv and Europe’s security and alter the geopolitical landscape. (Source: Reuters)

18 Feb 25. Ukrainian defense planners envision a drones-only front line. Ukraine has set out the goal of establishing a 15 kilometer unmanned “kill zone” along the front lines, which would see the most advanced Ukrainian drone units deploy a mix of surveillance and strike drones against Russian troops, according to government and defense-industry officials. The project, dubbed the Drone Line, was announced by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense on Feb 9. According to statements made by Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, it has two core objectives: building a continuous drone reconnaissance capability along the line of defense, and boosting support for and coordination with infantry units to create a kind buffer strip where no troops can move undetected. Kyiv’s call for an unmanned buffer zone came before U.S. proclamations saying Ukraine and Europe would largely be bystanders in negotiations between Washington and Moscow aimed at ending the war. High-ranking delegations were set to meet in Ryadh, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday, though an actual ceasefire could take months to hammer out. Mykyta Rozhkov, chief managing officer at the Ukrainian robotics engineering company Frontline, explains that the envisioned zone’s technical specifications are in line with Kyiv’s capability plans for unmanned systems.

“It reflects current technological capabilities and strategic considerations — this range allows for effective recon and engagement of enemy forces before they can pose a direct threat to Ukrainian positions,” Rozhkov told Defense News ahead of the IDEX defense expo here.

Given the rate at which local manufacturers are able to field drones, there is potential to expand the range to up to 40 kilometers, he added.

Several Ukrainian companies are currently able to produce as many as 2,500 heavy drones per month and 4,000 small drones per day, according to a statement published on social media by Valerii Iakovenko, the founder of DroneUA, a group encompassing a range of Ukrainian companies specializing in drone technology. Representatives of the DroneUA ground robotics division were present at IDEX, where a key focus of the Ukrainian pavilion was showcasing the full spectrum of unmanned capabilities.

Among them is the Chaklun family of drones, for example, manufactured by the Ukrainian company RC Direction and shown for the first time in the Middle East market. The fixed-wing aircraft have been in use by the Ukrainian Armed Forces for several months.

“The Chaklun-K and Interceptor drones are functioning air defense systems designed to counter enemy reconnaissance and strike drone types – their main advantage is they can stay in the air for more than two hours in monitoring mode, which is much longer than conventional FPVs,” Ivan Sybyriakov, senior manager of the Unmanned Systems Center at SPETS Techno Export told Defense News. (Source: Defense News)

19 Feb 25. Ukraine Modifies US Supplied Humvees for Electronic Warfare Use. A recently surfaced video showcases a U.S.-supplied High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV), commonly known as a Humvee, outfitted with an array of roof-mounted antennas. The standard Humvee serves primarily as a transport vehicle. According to the Bulgarian Military, the multiple antennas on the Humvees found in Ukraine suggest it has been retrofitted with equipment intended to intercept, jam, or disrupt electronic signals.

“This would be characteristic of an electronic warfare (EW) platform, aimed at disrupting enemy communications, radar systems, or GPS networks,” the online news outlet said.

Ukraine has received over 5,000 Humvees from the U.S., according to Militarnyi. Ukrainian military forces widely use these vehicles for combat missions and logistics in the brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, as well as special units of the Main Intelligence Directorate. According to the news outlet, Ukraine possess a significant number of specialized vehicles based on Humvees, including AN/TWQ-1 Avenger air defense systems, mobile anti-tank complexes with TOW launchers, APKWS-guided rocket launchers, and 105mm self-propelled howitzers based on the 2-CT Hawkeye system. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

18 Feb 25. British Typhoons may help keep peace in Ukraine — if Russia drops objections. Fighter jets will be easier than ground troops for Britain to supply. Providing Typhoon fighter jets would be easier for Britain than mustering thousands of troops for a peacekeeping force, defence analysts say. Britain is prepared to send Typhoon fighter jets to police the skies over Ukraine to help secure peace, it is understood. However, Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said that Moscow would not accept the deployment to Ukraine of Nato troops as part of any peace deal. On Tuesday the US and Russia held four and a half hours of talks to end the war, with no European nations at the negotiating table in Saudi Arabia. Lavrov cast doubt upon plans for a European-led peacekeeping force in Ukraine. He said: “The appearance of troops from Nato countries … under a foreign flag, the flag of the European Union or the national flag, is unacceptable.” A senior military source outside the UK said that that was merely Russia’s position after “round one”. British ministers have discussed ways to provide security guarantees without the need for large numbers of troops on the ground, The Times understands. One senior government source said an “air policing” mission would make sense, although significant numbers of aircraft would be required, along with air defence systems to protect the jets. In theory, dozens of Typhoons could be on alert for any Russian attacks while a smaller peacekeeping force of troops from the UK and other European countries offered protection on the ground. One source hinted that cross-border attacks could be monitored by sophisticated technology rather than a ground force, although how this would deter President Putin from breaching any deal is unclear. Concerns are rising that Europe alone would struggle to mount a ground force large enough to patrol Ukraine’s 700-mile border with Russia, even should Moscow agree. Some diplomats argued that a UN peacekeeping force was more realistic, and a prospect Russia was likely to support. Tuesday’s meeting in Riyadh was the first time US and Russian officials have sat down together since the Second World War. Ukraine, and any other European representatives, were absent.

President Zelensky of Ukraine said his country would not accept any outcome of this week’s talks if Kyiv did not take part. European allies are also concerned they are being cut out. Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said that no one was being sidelined, that the European Union needed to be involved at some point and that any solution had to be acceptable to all parties. Rubio said he believed that Russia was “willing to begin to engage in a serious process to determine how quickly and through what mechanism can an end be brought to this war”. Following the talks, it was reported that both sides had provisionally agreed elections should be held in Ukraine before a peace deal was reached. Trump later blamed President Zelensky for starting and prolonging the war at a press conference with reporters in Mar-a-Lago, Florida.

“You [Zelensky] should have never started it. You could have made a deal,” he said, adding: “You know, it’s been a long time since we’ve had an election.”

Trump also said he wouldn’t oppose seeing European troops in Ukraine as part of peacekeeping efforts. “If they want to do that, that’d be fine,” he said, adding it was a “beautiful gesture”. Moscow said it also expected to see progress on economic talks with the US within “two [or] three months”. Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, claimed US businesses had lost more than $300 bn after leaving Russian markets after the invasion of Ukraine. During the talks Russia hardened its demands, insisting that it would not tolerate Nato membership for Ukraine. Diplomats in Europe believe that Putin may be willing to negotiate, but that did not mean he was prepared to compromise, especially when he believed he was winning. Zelensky has consistently demanded Nato membership as the only way to guarantee Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence from its nuclear-armed neighbour.

Mike Waltz, the US national security adviser, told reporters in Riyadh that the war must come to a permanent end and this would involve negotiations over territory.

John Healey, the defence secretary, said that only the US could stop Putin from attacking Ukraine again.

“In the end, it is only the US that could provide the deterrence to Putin that will prevent him attacking again, and the detail of that is being developed,” he said in a speech on defence reform at the Institute for Government in London.

Healey’s comments echo those of Sir Keir Starmer and are in line with Nato allies who believe that any peacekeeping force would need some sort of US “buy in”. The prime minister will go to Washington next week to meet President Trump.

Zelensky has also said that Europe cannot guarantee Ukraine’s security without America because it hd too few soldiers to pose a realistic threat to Putin. He said that 110,000 foreign troops might be needed to secure peace in Ukraine — in reality, this would require a force triple the size to account for personnel rotating in and out.

According to The Washington Post, the European Union is considering a much lower figure, between 25,000 and 30,000 troops, as part of a potential ceasefire agreement.

A Ukrainian military source, however, said such a force was “nothing” for the 700-mile land border with Russia.

A British-led air policing mission could be modelled on Nato missions already taking place in the Baltic States. An RAF source said this was more likely than a no-fly zone. Aircraft could be based in Poland. Discussions are at an early stage, but the source said: “We are prepared to do whatever we are told to do.” An “air policing” missoin would involve aircraft “armed to the teeth”, ready to scramble. A no-fly zone would require aircraft to patrol the skies 24 hours a day. A Ministry of Defence spokeswoman said: “As the prime minister said after Monday’s Paris summit, we are still at the early stages of the process, but Britain will take a leading role in supporting a lasting peace in Ukraine that safeguards its sovereignty and will deter Putin from further aggression in the future.” (Source: The Times)

18 Feb 25. Trump says Ukraine should have made a deal earlier. Donald Trump has taken aim at Ukraine after its President, Volodymyr Zelensky, said it was a “surprise” his country had not been invited to talks in Saudi Arabia on ending the war with Russia. Saying he was “disappointed” by Ukraine’s reaction, he appeared to blame Ukraine for starting the war, saying the country “could have made a deal” earlier. A full-scale Russian invasion sparked the war in Ukraine almost three years ago. Earlier on Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Riyadh for the first high-level, face-to-face talks between the two countries since the invasion. They agreed to appoint teams to start negotiating the end of the war. Lavrov said his country would not accept peacekeeping forces from Nato countries in Ukraine under any peace deal, a proposal raised at a meeting of European members of Nato in Paris on Monday. European Nato states, who remain committed to supporting Ukraine against Russia, have been smarting at being sidelined by Trump’s unilateral peace initiative, which reversed the resolutely pro-Ukraine policy of his predecessor as president, Joe Biden. Speaking to reporters at his Mar-a-Lago residence, Trump was asked by the BBC what his message was to Ukrainians who might feel betrayed.

“I hear that they’re upset about not having a seat, well, they’ve had a seat for three years and a long time before that. This could have been settled very easily,” he said.

“You should have never started it. You could have made a deal,” he later added.

“I could have made a deal for Ukraine,” he said. “That would have given them almost all of the land, everything, almost all of the land – and no people would have killed, and no city would have been demolished.”

After the meeting in Riyadh, Trump said he was “much more confident”.

“They were very good,” he said. “Russia wants to do something. They want to stop the savage barbarianism.”

“I think I have the power to end this war,” he added.

Asked about the prospect of European countries sending troops to Ukraine, Trump said: “If they want to do that, that’s great, I’m all for it. If they want to do that, I think that’d be fine. I mean, I know France has mentioned it, others have mentioned it, UK has mentioned it.”

However, he added: “We won’t have to put any over there because, you know, we’re very far away.”

After Monday’s meeting in Paris, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said any Ukraine peace deal would require a “US backstop” to deter Russia from attacking its neighbour again.

Sir Keir said a “US security guarantee was the only way to effectively deter Russia”, and vowed to discuss the “key elements” of a peace deal with Trump in Washington next week. (Source: BBC)

19 Feb 25. EU capitals have agreed a fresh sanctions package against Russia, as Brussels vows to step up pressure on Moscow and support for Kyiv. (Source: FT.com)

18 Feb 25. IDF Strike in Lebanon Kills Hamas Leader Allegedly Involved in Planning Terror Attacks on Israeli Civilians. An Israeli drone strike on a vehicle in the southern Lebanese city of Sidon killed senior Hamas commander Mohammed Shaheen, who was identified by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) as the head of Hamas operations in Lebanon. The strike, carried out on Monday at the northern entrance of Sidon, caused the vehicle to burst into flames. Footage from the scene showed the burning car with a crowd gathered around the wreckage. According to the IDF, Shaheen had played a critical role in planning and coordinating terror attacks against Israeli civilians, allegedly with financial and strategic support from Iran.

“Shaheen was a significant source of knowledge within the organization and was involved throughout the war with advancing various terror attacks, including rocket fire on the Israeli home front,” the IDF added.

Hamas later confirmed his death, but the group identified Shaheen as a military commander and not a Hamas head in Lebanon. The drone strike occurred despite the ongoing ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and just one day before Israel was set to complete a partial withdrawal from Lebanon under the terms of a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah. While Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said that the Lebanese officials are “working diplomatically to ensure a full Israeli withdrawal,” he urged the sponsors of the ceasefire deal to assist Lebanon, expressing concerns that Israel might not fully withdraw from Lebanon by Tuesday. Aoun said that the ceasefire agreement “must be respected,” and that he would not accept any Israeli presence remaining on Lebanese territory. (Source: Breaking Defense.com)

14 Feb 25. Chernobyl’s reactor shield “hit by drone. ”The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported an explosion at the former Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Chernobyl. IAEA said the explosion was heard by its on-site team at around 01:50 on February 14. In a statement, IAEA said the explosion came from the New Safe Confinement which protects the remains of reactor 4. The IAEA on-site team were informed that the explosion was caused by an uncrewed aerial system (UAS) hitting the roof. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also reported the drone strike on the former NPP via social media while Russia has denied the claims. On February 12, IAEA had to cancel a scheduled rotation of the team monitoring the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant as a result of intense military activity in the region. And in December, a convoy of vehicles carrying IAEA experts to Zaporizhzhya was the target of a drone attack. (Source: www.unmannedairspace.info)

17 Feb 25. European countries clashed over sending troops to Ukraine as they began a crisis meeting intended to reach a consensus on how to respond to US President Donald Trump’s peace talks with Russia. (Source: FT.com)

17 Feb 25. Germany rejects Starmer’s Ukraine peace plan. Olaf Scholz leaves leaders’ meeting early as splits emerge over deploying European troops. Germany on Monday night rejected Sir Keir Starmer’s call for Europe to step up and deploy troops to Ukraine as part of any peace deal. The Prime Minister had used an article in The Telegraph to declare that Britain would play a leading role in post-war security guarantees for Ukraine, including putting British servicemen and women “in harm’s way”. But after an emergency meeting of European leaders in Paris on Monday, Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, said the suggestion was “completely premature”, “highly inappropriate”, and that he was “a little irritated”. The leaders had been scrambling to put on a united front in support of Kyiv after Donald Trump shocked the world by announcing peace talks with Vladimir Putin. Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, and Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s most senior foreign minister, will meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday to get that process under way. Mr Scholz, who faces a national election on Sunday, left the talks in Paris early as the splits emerged over the creation of a European peacekeeping force to police any ceasefire. Germany, Poland and Spain all signalled reluctance to deploy troops to the Ukraine as part of the settlement. Britain, France and Sweden spoke out in favour as they attempted to put pressure on their European allies to step up their support for Kyiv.

“It is completely premature and the completely wrong time to be having this discussion now. I am even a little irritated by these debates,” Mr Scholz told reporters after leaving the talks for an election debate.

The chancellor insisted discussions on possible European troop deployments were being held “over the heads of Ukrainians about the outcome of peace talks that haven’t even started”.

He added: “This is highly inappropriate, to put it bluntly and honestly – we don’t even know what the outcome will be.” (Source: Daily Telegraph)

17 Feb 25. Russian 155th Marine Brigade Suffers Heavy Losses in Kursk Oblast. The Russian 155th Marine Brigade experienced significant casualties during an attempted assault on Ukrainian positions near the village of Nikolskoye. The Ukrainian Army’s 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, known as “Magura,” reported the incident via their official Telegram channel. According to the brigade, the Russian forces reportedly launched an attack with more than a dozen tanks, outfitted with mine-clearing rollers, and a company-sized unit of personnel. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade said Ukrainian First-Person View (FPV) and bomber drones persistently targeted the armored column flying Soviet flags, resulting in the destruction and disabling of multiple vehicles.

“Neither the minefield nor the swarm of Ukrainian drones of the 47th Magura Brigade fazed the enemy. Not only tanks got tired of our ‘birds.’ One of the tankers decided to ‘rest’ near a hit vehicle, and our FPV of the Battalion helped him finally,” the brigade noted.

Further analysis by Ukrainian military news portal Militarnyi, referencing Russian Telegram channel Severny, revealed that the Russian command had devised a two-phase assault strategy.

The plan failed due to several factors, according to Militarnyi. Instead of a brief pause between attacks, a full day elapsed, giving Ukrainian forces time to rest. Furthermore, the Russians launched their second assault in broad daylight, allowing Ukrainian forces to detect the enemy and organize a response. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

17 Feb 25. Ukraine and Boeing Defense Discuss Joint UAV Production. Ukraine continues to strengthen its defense partnerships, with the Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov holding negotiations with a delegation from Boeing Defense, led by Executive Director Steven Parker. The discussions focused on expanding cooperation in the production of ammunition and aerial weapons, with a particular emphasis on the potential for joint UAV manufacturing. This meeting is part of Ukraine’s broader strategy to engage global defense industry leaders in enhancing the country’s security and military capabilities. Rustem Umerov expressed gratitude to Boeing for the constructive dialogue and reaffirmed Ukraine’s commitment to deepening its defense industry collaborations. As Ukraine faces ongoing threats, securing advanced military technology and increasing domestic production remain key priorities. The potential partnership with Boeing could play a significant role in bolstering Ukraine’s defense capabilities, particularly in the critical area of unmanned aerial systems. Ukraine continues to strengthen its defense partnerships, with the Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov holding negotiations with a delegation from Boeing Defense, led by Executive Director Steven Parker. The discussions focused on expanding cooperation in the production of ammunition and aerial weapons, with a particular emphasis on the potential for joint UAV manufacturing. This meeting is part of Ukraine’s broader strategy to engage global defense industry leaders in enhancing the country’s security and military capabilities. Rustem Umerov expressed gratitude to Boeing for the constructive dialogue and reaffirmed Ukraine’s commitment to deepening its defense industry collaborations. As Ukraine faces ongoing threats, securing advanced military technology and increasing domestic production remain key priorities. The potential partnership with Boeing could play a significant role in bolstering Ukraine’s defense capabilities, particularly in the critical area of unmanned aerial systems. (Source: UAS VISION/Defense Express)

15 Feb 25. Ukrainian Defense Industry (UDI) and Thales to establish joint venture. Ukrainian Defense Industry (UDI), also known as Ukroboronprom, has signed an agreement with French company Thales International SAS to create a joint venture. The agreement was formalised during the Munich Security Conference and marks a new phase of cooperation in defence technology. The joint venture will focus on developing advanced technological solutions and providing support in key defence areas. These include air defence, radar systems, electronic warfare, tactical communications, and electro-optical systems.

Oleh Huliak, CEO of Ukroboronprom, stated that the partnership would help strengthen Ukraine’s defence capabilities against Russian threats. He also highlighted the benefits for Ukraine’s defence industry, particularly in gaining experience with advanced technologies.

Thales, a company specialising in information systems for the aerospace and defence sectors, has been expanding its cooperation with Ukraine. In June 2024, it signed three agreements with Ukrainian defence companies to collaborate on electronic warfare, air defence, radar technology, and drones. (Source: Google/DIE)

14 Feb 25. Cuashub.com said today that Ukraine launches massive drone strike on Russian steel mill. Ukraine launched one of its largest drone attacks overnight on the Lipetsk Oblast region, with reports suggesting that the Novolipetsk Steel (NLMK) plant, Russia’s largest steel mill, was among the key targets. This is the latest attack in an ongoing escalation of Ukrainian drones targeting Russian infrastructure in 2025. According to Russian media, the drones targeted NLMK, which produces approximately 20% of Russia’s total steel output. The facility, located 400 kilometers from the Russia-Ukraine border, is responsible for 80% of NLMK’s production and is a critical industrial asset owned by bnaire Vladimir Lisin, Russia’s third-richest person on Forbes’ 2023 list. There has been no official confirmation of direct damage to the steel plant. However, power outages were reported across several districts in Lipetsk following the attack. Governor Igor Artamonov stated that electricity was being restored. Debris from one of the intercepted drones reportedly fell on the Lipetsk aeration station, injuring an employee who was hospitalized with shrapnel wounds.

Russian MoD claims 83 drones downed

Russia’s Defense Ministry reported that 83 drones were intercepted overnight, with the following breakdown:

37 over Bryansk Oblast
12 each over Kursk and Lipetsk Oblasts
9 over Tver Oblast
3 each over Belgorod, Kaluga, Smolensk, and Voronezh Oblasts

The extent of any successful strikes remains unclear and unverified.

Part of Ukraine’s expanding drone warfare?

The attack follows a strike on February 3, that reportedly targeted an oil refinery in Volgograd and a gas processing plant in Astrakhan, according to a Ukrainian Security Service source speaking to The Kyiv Independent.

Ukraine has ramped up its long-range drone campaign in recent months, striking critical energy and industrial facilities deep inside Russia. These attacks aim to disrupt Moscow’s war machine, though the long-term impact on Russia’s industrial and military infrastructure remains a subject of debate.

https://cuashub.com/en/content/ukraine-launches-massive-drone-strike-on-russian-steel-mill/https://cuashub.com/en/content/ukraine-launches-massive-drone-strike-on-russian-steel-mill/(Source: https://cuashub.com/)

14 Feb 25. Cuashub.com said today that Ukraine can’t win with drones alone, but what if they don’t have to? The belief that Ukraine cannot win the war using drones alone is widely held – and for good reason. Drone strikes, no matter how frequent or effective, will not march an army into Moscow or force Russia into surrender. They are a tool, not a solution. Yet the assumption that Ukraine’s drone campaign is merely a nuisance to Russia, rather than a meaningful factor in shaping the war’s trajectory, may be outdated. If Ukraine doesn’t need to win solely with drones, then the real question is: what role do these strikes play in weakening Russia’s ability to sustain a prolonged war? On February 11, Ukraine executed a long-range drone strike on Russia’s Saratov oil refinery which appears to be part of a much larger strategic pattern. In January alone, Ukraine hit 25 Russian energy facilities, inflicting significant damage to refineries, oil depots and logistics hubs. In early February, Ukraine hit three facilities in the space of five days. Some of these facilities, like the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Rostov Oblast, were forced to halt operations entirely. The economic and logistical consequences of these strikes extend far beyond any individual attack. While drones alone will not win the war for Ukraine, they may not have to. Instead, they are part of a broader strategy that could make it far more difficult for Russia to sustain its invasion in the long run and, crucially, could give Ukraine more leverage in any potential peace negotiations. However, Russia’s ability to adapt to these challenges – whether through increased domestic production, alternative supply chains or military adjustments – remains an open question.

Drones are forcing Russia to adapt, at a cost

One of Ukraine’s biggest challenges is Russia’s sheer depth of resources. The Russian military has a vast manpower advantage, significant industrial capacity and a largely intact domestic energy sector. If Ukraine hopes to shift the balance, it must find ways to stretch Russian defenses and disrupt its war economy. Every successful drone strike forces Russia to respond, whether by reinforcing air defenses, relocating infrastructure or repairing damage. But these adaptations are not free. Deploying sophisticated air defense systems across Russia’s massive territory means fewer are available on what is an extensive frontline. Redirecting resources to protect oil refineries, fuel depots and industrial centers weakens Russia’s ability to concentrate on offensive operations in Ukraine. Deploying these assets across its energy network diverts them from frontline operations, where they are needed to counter Ukrainian missile and drone attacks on Russian troops. Ukraine has already demonstrated the ability to detect and exploit vulnerabilities in frontline defenses when it successfully captured Russian soil in the Kursk region for the first time last year.

Russia’s fuel infrastructure is a strategic weakness

History has repeatedly shown that fuel shortages can cripple a war effort. From Nazi Germany’s oil crisis in World War II to Iraq’s logistical struggles in the Gulf War, military campaigns grind to a halt without reliable fuel supplies. Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil infrastructure are designed to create precisely this kind of pressure. Damaging refineries reduces Russia’s ability to process crude oil into usable fuel. Targeting oil storage sites disrupts military supply chains, making it harder to move troops and equipment efficiently. For example, after repeated Ukrainian drone strikes, the Kristall oil depot in Saratov Oblast reportedly lost a large portion of its storage capacity. Meanwhile, the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov, with an annual processing capacity of 7.5 m tons, was forced to shut down entirely. These are not minor inconveniences; they are significant disruptions to Russia’s war logistics.

UK Government intelligence reveals damage to the Kristall oil depot. However, Russia’s vast oil industry and prioritization of military fuel needs mean that while these strikes may disrupt supply chains and increase costs, they are unlikely to create a full-scale military fuel crisis in the near term. Even if Russia adapts by relocating production further inland or increasing security at key sites, these changes take time and resources. The longer Ukraine sustains this pressure, the more difficult it becomes for Russia to maintain uninterrupted fuel supplies.

Drones are just one part of Ukraine’s strategy

Crucially, drones are not operating in isolation. Ukraine is employing a mix of long-range missile strikes, sabotage operations inside Russian territory and special forces raids to complement its drone campaign. Western-supplied Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles have already proven effective in hitting Russian military targets far behind enemy lines. Meanwhile, acts of sabotage, such as the ongoing campaign to degrade Russian railway networks, further complicate Russia’s logistical planning. By integrating drones with these other forms of attack, Ukraine is effectively pressuring Russia across multiple fronts. It doesn’t need a massive ground offensive to put strain on Russian supply lines – just enough sustained disruption to make the war increasingly costly for Moscow. Economic and psychological impact: The war is becoming more expensive for Russia War is not just fought on the battlefield; it is fought in the economy and in public perception. The financial burden of replacing destroyed infrastructure is mounting. Every refinery repair, every damaged storage tank and destroyed counter-drone system comes with a cost. The more Ukraine forces Russia to invest in defending and rebuilding critical infrastructure, the more financial strain it places on Moscow’s war machine. And while Russia’s economy has proven resilient, there is a difference between being able to sustain a war and being able to win one. Public perception is another factor. Repeated attacks deep inside Russian territory undermine confidence in the Kremlin’s ability to protect key infrastructure. If these strikes escalate further – targeting even more economically vital regions – the political pressure on Putin could increase, especially if ordinary Russians begin to feel the war’s costs more directly.

A war of attrition works both ways

Ukraine is unlikely to win purely through a drone campaign, but winning the war and making it unwinnable for Russia are not the same thing.

The critical question is who can sustain the economic and logistical burden longer. If Ukraine can continue degrading Russia’s fuel infrastructure, forcing costly adaptations and stretching Russian defenses thin, then Russia’s ability to outlast Ukraine is not as inevitable as some might assume.

The belief that Ukraine cannot win with drones alone is correct – but also irrelevant.

This is a war of endurance. The more Ukraine can disrupt Russia’s logistical stability, the more difficult it becomes for Moscow to maintain its military momentum. If Ukraine succeeds in weakening Russia’s ability to continue fighting indefinitely, it may gain a stronger position in any future peace negotiations. Drones are not intended to deliver a knockout blow; they are meant to tip the balance in a long and grinding conflict. By systematically targeting Russian fuel supplies, logistics hubs and military infrastructure, Ukraine is likely hoping to force Russia into an increasingly defensive posture – one that may prove unsustainable over time. If Ukraine can keep up the pressure while securing continued Western support, the war’s trajectory may shift in ways that make a conventional Russian victory much harder to achieve. Russia may hope to win by attrition, but Ukraine’s current strategy may be designed to ensure that attrition may not work in Russia’s favor for much longer. https://cuashub.com/en/content/ukraine-cant-win-with-drones-alone-but-what-if-they-dont-have-to/ (Source: https://cuashub.com/)

14 Feb 25. Ukraine Scores Rare Win Against Russia’s Deadly Glide Bombs with Mystery Weapon. Ukrainian forces have intercepted a Russian KAB guided bomb in the Zaporizhzhia region, according to Yurii Ihnat, head of communications for the Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) command, who spoke to Ukraine’s Espreso News. Ihnat noted that this was not the first successful interception but did not disclose details about the current or past incidents. Ihnat explained that Russian KAB guided aerial bombs are modified iron bombs launched from tactical aircraft at distances beyond the reach of Ukrainian air defenses. In 2024 alone, Russia has deployed nearly 40,000 KAB bombs against Ukraine. A Forbes report highlights the difficulty of intercepting glide bombs due to their small size and lack of a heat signature. While some weigh up to three tons, most are under a ton with a wingspan of less than seven feet, making them difficult to detect on radar. According to the report, short-range air defense missiles like the Stinger use infrared guidance to lock onto heat sources, but since glide bombs are unpowered and produce no jet exhaust, they remain invisible to such systems. Without revealing specific details, Ihnat said countering Moscow’s use of KABs requires a comprehensive approach: “Countering this threat requires both ground-based air defense systems and aviation components to push the carriers of these bombs as far back as possible.”

Ukrainian milblogger Sonyashnyk (Sunflower), who specializes in air defense and aviation issues, wrote on Telegram that the earlier incidents Ihnat referred to involved the “skilled hands of the Cossacks shooting KABs with the ZU-23-2” – a twin-barreled towed 23 mm anti-aircraft cannon. He noted that such successes had been “few and far between,” requiring luck and being both difficult and dangerous. NATO has recognized the urgent need to counter Russia’s glide bombs. Recently, it launched its first 2025 Innovation Challenge aimed at developing technologies to detect, intercept, or neutralize glide bombs. The competition calls for solutions that can integrate seamlessly with NATO’s existing defense systems and requires minimal training for end-users. The deadline for submissions is on March 13. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

14 Feb 25. Helsing to Produce 6,000 Additional Strike Drones for Ukraine. Helsing, the German defence technology company, announced that it is producing 6,000 HX-2 strike drones for delivery to Ukraine. This follows a previous order of 4,000 HF-1 strike drones which are currently being delivered to Ukraine, in partnership with Ukrainian industry.

The new batch of drones makes Helsing one of the largest strike drone manufacturers globally.

Unveiled in late 2024, HX-2 is an electrically propelled X-wing precision munition with up to 100 km range. Advanced on-board AI enables full resistance to electronic warfare. When operating as part of Helsing’s Altra recce-strike software, multiple HX-2 can assemble into swarms, controlled by single human operators. HX-2 has been designed to be mass-producible and at significantly lower unit cost than conventional systems, thus filling a growing capability gap in modern land warfare.

In addition, Helsing is announcing the completion of the first Resilience Factory in Southern Germany.

Resilience Factories are Helsing’s high-efficiency production facilities designed to provide nation states with local and sovereign manufacturing capacities. Helsing is set to build Resilience Factories across the European continent, with the ability to scale manufacturing rates to tens of thousands of units in case of a conflict.

The first Resilience Factory (RF-1) is operational in Southern Germany and has an initial monthly production capacity of more than 1,000 HX-2.

Gundbert Scherf, co-founder of Helsing, said: “We are scaling up production of HX-2 in response to additional orders from Ukraine, where precision mass is offsetting a numerical disadvantage in legacy systems on a daily basis. It is clear that NATO has important lessons to learn, and fast. With our Resilience Factories, we are taking a distributed approach towards mass manufacturing these systems across Europe, allowing individual nation states to produce locally and ensure sovereignty of production and supply chain.”

Niklas Köhler, co-founder of Helsing said: “We have assembled Europe’s world-leading manufacturing talent to completely rethink and develop a new generation of mass producible effects. Our Resilience Factories combine software-first design with scalable manufacturing techniques. We solve the hard problems in the software layer, not the electronics. This generates affordable precision mass, deters adversaries, and protects our democracies. HX-2 is just the first of a whole range of products based on this premise.“

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