NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Feb 17.

17 Feb 25. Sir Keir Starmer has said he is “ready and willing” to put UK troops on the ground in Ukraine to help guarantee the country’s security as part of a peace deal. Writing in the Daily Telegraph, the UK prime minister said “securing a lasting peace in Ukraine that safeguards its sovereignty for the long term is essential” to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from “further aggression”. The commitment, made ahead of a meeting of European leaders in Paris convened by French President Emmanuel Macron later today, marks the first time Starmer has explicitly indicated the UK is ready to put British troops in harm’s way in Ukraine. (Source: BBC)

Commenting on UK defence spending, Professor Paul Cornish, from the University of Exeter, said: “In an increasingly volatile global security environment, the most obvious and effective contribution that UK armed forces could make to the protection of western values and interests would be to ensure the stability of Europe and the deterrence of adversaries on its borders. Security and defence against known and potential adversaries require more precautionary, high-risk investment and preparation than would be appropriate in other areas of public policy. “It would be a triumph if SDR25 could break free from the percentage GDP/affordability dogma – a triumph for the UK and a model for the rest of NATO. Rather than continue to express defence intentions in terms of a percentage of GDP, SDR25 should argue for a return to output as the best measure of a national defence effort, just as NATO should realise that, for military people, ‘targets’ mean very little if they have nothing to fire at them.”

Feb 15.

15 Feb 25. Europe won’t have a seat at the table for Ukraine peace talks, Donald Trump’s Ukraine envoy said on Saturday, after Washington sent a questionnaire to European capitals to ask what they could contribute to security guarantees for Kyiv. Trump shocked European allies this week by calling Russian President Vladimir Putin without consulting them or Kyiv beforehand and declaring an immediate start to peace talks. (Source: Reuters)

15 Feb 25. U.S. and Russian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia in the coming days to start talks aimed at ending Moscow’s nearly three-year war in Ukraine, a U.S. lawmaker and a source familiar with the planning said on Saturday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who met with U.S. Vice President JD Vance in Germany on Friday, said Ukraine was not invited to the talks in Saudi Arabia and Kyiv would not engage with Russia before consulting with strategic partners. (Source: Reuters)

15 Feb 25. Ukraine rejects Trump bid to take rights to half its mineral reserves. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has rejected a US proposal to take ownership of around 50 per cent of the rights to his country’s rare earth minerals and is trying to negotiate a better deal, according to several people familiar with the matter. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered Zelenskyy the deal during a visit to Kyiv on Wednesday, which came after Trump suggested the US was owed half a trillion dollars’ worth of Ukraine’s resources in exchange for its assistance to the war-torn country. Zelenskyy wants American and European security guarantees to be tied directly to any deal on the mineral reserves, according to three people familiar with the US-Ukraine negotiations. He is also keen for other countries, including EU states, to be involved in future natural resource exploitation. “We are still talking,” Zelenskyy said in Munich on Saturday. “I have had different dialogues.” A senior Ukrainian official told the Financial Times that Kyiv was “trying to negotiate a better deal”. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, left, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed the deal during a meeting in Kyiv on Wednesday © REUTERS During his visit to the presidential office in Kyiv this week Bessent brought a document that Trump wanted Zelenskyy to sign before Bessent returned to Washington, according to five people familiar with the matter. Speaking to reporters before he and Zelenskyy discussed the deal privately for roughly an hour, Bessent described it as an “economic agreement” with Kyiv to “further intertwine our economies”. The Trump administration would “stand to the end [with Kyiv] by increasing our economic commitment” which would “provide a long-term security shield for all Ukrainians” once Russia’s war is over, Bessent said. “When we looked at the details there was nothing there [about future US security guarantees],” another Ukrainian official told the FT. Asked whether it was a bad deal for Ukraine, a third Ukrainian official familiar with the proposal said it was “a Trump deal”. “This is Trump dealmaking,” the official said. “It’s tough.” (Source: FT.com)

15 Feb 25. The US has asked European capitals to provide detailed proposals on the weaponry, peacekeeping troops and security arrangements they could provide Ukraine with as part of any security guarantees to end its war with Russia. The request was sent to capitals this week, four western officials briefed on the document told the FT. It came as European leaders demanded to be part of Trump’s negotiations with Vladimir Putin that he announced on Wednesday. “This [document] is the way that we make sure we are involved,” said one of the officials. Washington intends the questionnaire, sent to governments by the US State Department, to scope out Europe’s willingness to protect Kyiv after a peace settlement, and the price Europe is willing to pay in exchange for being involved in negotiations with Moscow. The State Department requested details of military hardware that European capitals would be able to provide and the number of troop brigades they would be prepared to deploy, the officials said. “The cable poses a number of general questions,” a US official said, adding that it requests “specific proposals or ideas” for what a Europe-led security arrangement might look like. The request comes ahead of a tour of European capitals by Trump’s Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg, which begins next week in Brussels. Kellogg was not listed by the president this week as part of the four-man US team who will hold talks with Moscow, leading officials in Europe and Ukraine to wonder how involved he is in Trump’s peace efforts. US officials said Kellogg and others were providing options to Trump, who is the ultimate decision maker. Kellogg said on Saturday at the Munich Security Conference that the discussions were “a two-track process”. (Source: FT.com)

Feb 14.

Russia: Economic pressures from Ukraine war will moderately raise likelihood of temporary ceasefire. On 13 February, Reuters, quoting confidential documents from Russia’s Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank (CBR), reported that the Russian authorities are increasingly concerned about the steady deterioration of their country’s economy. Notably, Russian economic policymakers regard lower oil prices, budgetary constraints and a sharp rise in risky corporate debt as the main economic challenges. With the war in Ukraine set to enter its fourth year, Russia’s economy is coming under increasing strain, especially as the Kremlin has steadily raised defence expenditures, a key driver of the public deficit. Russia’s long-standing dependence on oil export revenues means that it has become more vulnerable to oil price volatility. Meanwhile, high key rates have significantly raised borrowing costs for Russian businesses, which in turn face growing bankruptcy risks. Ultimately, we assess that while Russia’s economy is likely to be able to weather Moscow’s war effort in the coming year, economic concerns among decision-makers over the country’s long-term macroeconomic stability will likely moderately increase the Kremlin’s willingness to agree to at least a temporary ceasefire over time.

Feb 13.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

STRIKES: Russian forces launched a series of high-intensity missile strikes in recent days, with a notable highly concentrated missile strike against Poltava oblast; this reflects continued Russian strike experimentation
POLITICS: The Ukrainian government has imposed unspecified sanctions against the former Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko; this reflects the ‘return to politics’ in Ukraine amid growing US pressure to hold fresh elections in 2025
SPENDING: Russian military spending now exceeds all of Europe’s defence budgets combined, according to a new study; this comes as Zelensky acknowledges that Europe cannot replace the US’ support for Ukraine
FORECAST: President Trump spoke with Vladimir Putin and disclosed that the two leaders had agreed that their teams would ‘start negotiations immediately’ to end the war in Ukraine, notably excluding Zelensky
BAKHMUT: Russian forces have advanced only modestly in and around Chasiv Yar and Toretsk in recent days. Geolocated footage published on 10 February indicates that Russian forces advanced across fields to the south of Chasiv Yar, but with no confirmed advances in the town itself. Further south in Toretsk, Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to contest the northern outskirts of the town, with geolocated footage from 10, 11 and 12 February indicating both Russian and Ukrainian advances in different sectors.
BAKHMUT: Meanwhile, along the northern flank of the Bakhmut sector, geolocated footage from 12 February also indicates that Russian forces have advanced to the western outskirts of Bilohorivka, located six miles (10km) to the north-east of Siversk (Donetsk oblast). Bilohorivka is a small town along the Donetsk-Luhansk border, which Russian forces have been trying to control since 2022.
DONETSK: Over the past few days, Russian forces have made gains in the Pokrovsk sector. On 11 February, a Ukrainian observer reported that Russia had recently captured Baranivka, located to the north-east of Pokrovsk and near the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway, which Russian forces previously claimed to have interdicted. Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) has meanwhile claimed the capture of Vodyane Druhe, located directly to the west of Baranivka. While the capture of the settlement remains visually unconfirmed, geolocated footage from 11 February confirms recent Russian advances to the south-west of the settlement. Such advances likely aim to consolidate Moscow’s control around the highway, which is a crucial ground line of communication (GLOC) for Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area. These operations will likely facilitate Russia’s ongoing endeavour to envelop Pokrovsk from the north.
DONETSK: Meanwhile, further south, Russian forces continue to advance in the Kurakhove sector. Geolocated footage from 10 and 11 February shows recent advances in central Andriivka, located to the north-west of Kurakhove. The footage also shows Russian forces progressing along the T-0515 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynopil highway, located to the north of Andriivka. Russian forces also made confirmed advances to the south-west of Dachne, a settlement located to the west of Kurakhove.
KHARKIV: Nothing significant to report
KURSK: Russian and Ukrainian forces have continued to advance at various points along the Kursk salient in recent days, with heavy fighting taking place to the south-east of Sudzha. Geolocated footage published on 9 and 12 February indicates Russian advances, while footage from 11 February indicates Ukrainian advances near Fanaseyevka, located to the south-east of Sudzha, indicating that much of that area remains heavily contested.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Russian forces have advanced in the Borova and Lyman directions over the past few days. Ukrainian military updates from 11 February likely indicate recent Russian gains in fields located to the north of Makiivka and south-east of Borova. Geolocated footage from 12 February shows Russian gains in southern Makiivka. Russian troops have also likely recently progressed to the north-west of Ivanivka, which is located to the north-east of Lyman.
SOUTHERN: New maps published by the Ukrainian General Staff on 11 February indicate that Russian forces have advanced to the north-west of Vremivka, which is located to the south-west of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk). They have also advanced to the west of Marfopil, located to the south-east of Hulyaipole (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
STRIKES: Russia resumed combined missile-drone strikes on 11 and 12 February after a lull in such attacks over the previous weeks. On 13 February, Russia’s long-range attacks only involved drones.
STRIKES: On 11 February, Russia launched 19 missiles and 124 drones. The missile strike package included ballistic, cruise and guided aerial missiles, though Ukraine’s air force did not provide further details on the attack’s composition. Russian forces reportedly launched every missile against a gas production facility in Poltava oblast operated by Naftogaz, an unusual move that likely resulted in significant damage. This likely indicates a new Russian striking tactic, in which Russian forces concentrate a large number of missiles against one critical target to maximise damage and overwhelm Ukraine’s air defences. The attack caused an energy shutdown in Poltava. Wider drone attacks also damaged infrastructure in Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kharkiv and Kyiv oblasts.
STRIKES: The 12 February strike included 123 drones and seven Iskandr-M ballistic missiles. Six of the ballistic missiles were launched from Bryansk oblast (Russia), located to the north-east of Kyiv (Ukraine). The remaining ballistic missile was launched from Russian-occupied Crimea and likely targeted Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk oblast, Ukraine), where the local authorities reported a missile strike.
STRIKES: The Ukrainian authorities stated that six missiles were destroyed over Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that ten interceptor missiles from the US-made Patriot air defence system were used to intercept these missiles. This likely indicates that several interceptors were required to intercept one ballistic missile, underscoring the difficulties involved in shooting down such projectiles. We cannot confirm if all the missiles were shot down.
STRIKES: The Kyiv city authorities reported damage to residential buildings, an office complex and non-residential infrastructure in the capital’s Holosiivskyi, Obolonskyi, Solomyanskyi, and Sviatoshynskyi urban districts. According to various media reports, damaged buildings also included the offices of the state news channels Freedom TV and Dim. Hits were also recorded in areas of Kyiv oblast outside the capital, where a warehouse was struck. The extent of the reported damage likely underscores that even intercepted ballistic missiles can cause significant damage, especially if the interception does not cause the ballistic missile to explode in the air. Debris from intercepted missiles will therefore continue to present a credible threat across the capital.
STRIKES: In Kryvyi Rih, the authorities stated that the missile strike damaged an unspecified infrastructure facility, a petrol station, an educational institution, a hotel and an administrative building in the city centre. Additionally, 33 vehicles were damaged. The damage was caused by a direct hit from the remaining ballistic missile.
STRIKES: Sanction-evading supply chains through Russian partners, such as China, will continue to allow Moscow to access critical components for its drone industry. On 12 February, the Estonian intelligence services reported that around 80% of Western-made components used for Russian military drone production are procured via China. The Estonian intelligence report also stated that China is Moscow’s primary hub for importing high-tech and dual-use goods, circumventing Western sanctions. The report alleged that the offices of Western firms producing such components are involved in these schemes.
STRIKES: Meanwhile, overnight on 10-11 February, Ukrainian forces launched a drone attack that successfully struck the Saratov Oil Refinery in Saratov oblast (Russia). The facility produces 7 million tonnes of oil each year. The Engels military air base was also reportedly targeted (the facility houses Russian strategic bombers frequently used to launch cruise missile strikes against Ukraine). On 13 February, the authorities in Lipetsk oblast (Russia) reported a massive Ukrainian drone attack. According to a Russian online independent media outlet, the attack targeted the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant (NLMK), the largest steel plant in Russia. The plant produces up to 20% of all Russian steel. According to Russia’s MoD, the attack involved 83 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The attack also targeted Belgorod, Bryansk, Kaluga, Kursk, Smolensk and Voronezh oblasts (all Russia).

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

POLITICS: On 12 February, the Ukrainian government imposed unspecified sanctions against the former Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko. Poroshenko stated that the decision by Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council was unconstitutional and politically motivated; he also implied that President Zelensky was directly involved in the decision. Poroshenko did not disclose the restrictions he faces. However, reports in the Ukrainian media claim that the sanctions could be implemented based on alleged ‘high treason’. While we cannot confirm this, the timing is notable considering mounting US pressure on Kyiv to hold elections (notably a presidential vote), despite martial law not allowing such a procedure. This issue ultimately reflects our long-standing assessment that politics is returning to Ukraine, with growing political debate likely to take place in 2025, despite Zelensky’s high approval ratings.
POLITICS: According to a survey conducted earlier this month, 24% of Ukrainians consider Poroshenko to be the leader of the opposition. The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) published the survey earlier on 13 February, though it found that respondents perceived the possible introduction of sanctions against Poroshenko cynically. Notably, 31% of Ukrainians stated that they believe the goal of such action is to distract the public from Ukraine’s worsening position on the battlefield. Meanwhile, 24% view the possible imposition of sanctions as a means to ‘neutralise’ the opposition. Although Zelensky still enjoys a healthy approval rating, his popularity has slipped considerably since the beginning of the war and will highly likely drop further in the event of unfavourable peace terms.
POLITICS: Earlier on 13 February, lawmakers from Poroshenko’s European Solidarity (YeS) party blocked the podium of the parliament in an apparent attempt to decry the sanctions against the faction’s leader. Several lawmakers held posters opposing ‘political repression’ and criticised the Ukrainian leadership of allegedly prioritising elections rather than Ukraine’s victory in the war. We assess there is a realistic possibility that the sanctions against Poroshenko are aimed at undermining him as a possible political opponent in the (albeit unlikely) event that a presidential election takes place in the coming months. Nevertheless, the developments increasingly point to the ‘return to politics’ in Ukraine. For further analysis, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 3 February 2025.
SPENDING: Russian military spending now exceeds all of Europe’s defence budgets combined, according to an assessment by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The Financial Times (FT) shared details of the study on 12 February, which found that total Russian defence spending surged by 42% last year to RUB 13.1 trillion (over USD 144.3 billion). When adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), this equates to an estimated USD 462 billion. Meanwhile, European defence budgets (including EU member states and the UK) rose almost 12% to USD 457 billion.
SPENDING: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasised on 12 February that European nations must provide the ‘overwhelming’ share of future lethal and non-lethal aid to Ukraine. US President Donald Trump and officials in his administration have repeatedly argued that Europe should contribute more to aiding Kyiv. However, our assessment remains that European states likely lack the capability to compensate for a significant or total reduction in US military support for Ukraine. Zelensky himself acknowledged as much on 11 February, underscoring the continued importance of US support. Ultimately, the findings of the IISS study underscore how European defence spending alone will highly likely struggle to outpace Russian military spending.
SPENDING: Meanwhile, Zelensky stated in an interview published on 12 February that Ukraine must double the size of its army if NATO membership remains an unlikely prospect. Zelensky insisted that Ukraine’s fighting force must be the size of Russia’s to ensure an equitable and stable peace. Zelensky stated in early January that Ukraine’s military comprises 980,000 personnel. Meanwhile, a Russian presidential decree in September 2024 ordered the overall size of the Russian armed forces to be increased to 2.38 million personnel. While Ukraine will almost certainly seek to expand its military capability, the prospect of doubling its size is highly unlikely, particularly given acute and ongoing demographic challenges. As such, emphasising ‘force multipliers’ and maintaining a technological advantage will likely characterise the Ukrainian approach to building an effective deterrent force that aims to prevent another Russian invasion of Ukraine.

FORECAST

NEGOTIATIONS: On 12 February, President Trump spoke with his Russian counterpart President Vladimir Putin and disclosed that the two leaders had agreed that their teams would ‘start negotiations immediately’ to end the war in Ukraine. Trump described the telephone conversation as ‘lengthy and highly productive’; he also expressed expectations that the two would meet in the ‘not too distant future’, likely in Saudi Arabia. While Trump claims to have previously spoken with Putin in recent days, the aforementioned interaction marks their first highly publicised call since the former assumed office. As such, the dialogue marks a notable step in the Trump administration’s efforts towards laying the ground for negotiations in the coming months. Although the US president claimed that there was a mutual agreement to start talks imminently, we assess that the prospect of a major breakthrough towards ending the conflict remains unlikely in the short term; such an eventuality will likely take time. Trump’s efforts to open negotiations with Moscow seemingly do not involve Ukraine, with President Zelensky stating on 13 February that Ukraine ‘will not be able to accept any agreements’ made without its own involvement. Ultimately, the Kremlin has long been pushing for bilateral ‘great power’ negotiations directly between Moscow and Washington DC to end the war in Ukraine, rather than negotiating directly with Kyiv. While it remains unclear if Trump envisages future talks to include the Ukrainian leadership, the prospect of a peace deal being dictated to Kyiv will almost certainly result in efforts by Ukraine and several of its European partners to resist any such terms.

It remains unclear whether Russia’s supposed acquiescence to begin negotiations is subject to conditions, though recent statements from Trump and his officials have likely sent positive signals to Moscow about the possibility of (at least bilaterally agreed) terms for ending the war. Defense Secretary Hegseth stated on 12 February that a return to Ukraine’s borders prior to 2014 (i.e. Kyiv regaining control over Crimea and separatist regions in Donbas) is unrealistic. Hegseth also disclosed that the US does not believe that Ukrainian membership in NATO is a ‘realistic outcome’ of a negotiated settlement to end the war. Trump echoed similar comments, underscoring that this is now firmly US policy. Russia had cited NATO expansion as a reason for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, despite the fact that Ukraine was unlikely to join the military alliance then (and remains highly unlikely to do so). Therefore, Moscow would almost certainly regard Ukraine’s non-membership of NATO as evidence that Russia has achieved one of its primary war objectives. Trump also spoke with President Zelensky on 12 February; the two leaders discussed opportunities to achieve peace. Zelensky stated that Trump shared details of his earlier conversation with Putin. According to Zelensky, he and Trump agreed to maintain further contact and to plan upcoming meetings. The Ukrainian president stated that Kyiv and Washington DC are working together to determine steps to stop Russian aggression and ensure a ‘lasting, reliable peace’. However, Ukraine will almost certainly continue to stress that security guarantees (other than NATO membership) are central to Kyiv’s ability to agree to any peace terms. Comments from Zelensky in recent days indicate growing acknowledgement and preparedness for territorial concessions to end the war. In an interview published on 11 February, Zelensky revealed that he was prepared to cede land Ukraine holds in Kursk in exchange for Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory. Zelensky claimed that Kyiv and Moscow could swap ‘one territory for another’ but did not comment on which region Russia would return. The Kremlin has already dismissed this idea. Nevertheless, it confirms our assessment that the Ukrainian offensive into Kursk last August was designed to bolster Kyiv’s position in negotiations. However, Ukrainian forces currently control a relatively small area in Kursk oblast, compared to the large swathes of territory Russia occupies in Ukraine. Ultimately, Russia highly likely perceives there is more value in keeping Ukrainian regions it has annexed rather than exchanging territory for Ukrainian-held parts of Kursk – which the Kremlin likely anticipates it could reacquire during peace negotiations without major concessions on its part.

Amid Trump’s diplomatic overtures, reports indicate that China is also making efforts to play a role in ending the conflict by proposing a Putin-Trump summit – notably without Zelensky’s involvement. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) shared details on the matter on 12 February, noting that Chinese officials have floated the idea to Trump’s administration through intermediaries in recent weeks. An unspecified White House official refused to comment on the offer, but argued that it is ‘not viable at all’. We assess that Saudi Arabia is a much more likely location for a summit, given Riyadh’s careful balancing of relations with both Moscow and Washington DC. However, Beijing’s reported willingness to organise such an event without Ukraine’s input reinforces our assessment that China is more closely aligned with Russia regarding the terms to end the war; it likely supports the so-called ‘great power’ diplomacy favoured by Moscow.

Feb 12.

Ukraine: Cyber espionage operation raises security risks from Russian state-sponsored group. On 11 February, the security company EclecticIQ reported that the Russian state-sponsored group ‘Sandworm’ targeted Windows users in Ukraine in a cyber espionage operation since at least late 2023. The campaign comprises at least seven activity clusters displaying similar tactics, underscoring the scale and longevity of this campaign. The latest activity reportedly used typo-squatted domains to emulate legitimate websites to infiltrate targeted systems. The group then uses a fake Microsoft Key Management Service (KMS) to display a fake Windows interface and trick users into unknowingly downloading a malware loader (‘BACKORDER’). BACKORDER disables security mechanisms and installs the ‘Dark Crystal’ remote access trojan (RAT), enabling Sandworm to steal sensitive information from compromised systems. Russia will likely continue to prioritise cyber espionage operations amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. As such, this operation will heighten security and cyber espionage risks to Ukrainian and Ukraine-based businesses as the conflict persists.

Feb 11.

Rusiian losses estimate from Ukraine. Russia, 350,000 killed, 675,000 wounded Ukraine 75,000 killed, 335,000 wounded.
10,000 Russian tanks destroyed lost, including 170 T90 tanks destroyed as of February 2025 difficulty offsetting losses, stockpile of Soviet era tanks critical in 25/26.
Azerbaijan-Russia: Regional tensions will likely remain elevated in the short to medium term. On 10 February, an Azerbaijani media outlet reported that a pro-Russia espionage network had been exposed. The network allegedly included former high-ranking government officials, such as the former head of the presidential administration, Ramiz Mehdiyev. The report comes after Baku banned Russian State Duma deputy Nikolai Valuev from entering the country. Last week, Valuev proposed the closure of Azerbaijani diaspora organisations in Russia in retaliation for Baku ordering the closure of the Russia House in Azerbaijan. These developments underscore the heightened regional tensions between the two countries, which were triggered by the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft in December 2024; this was likely hit by Russian air defences. Baku has demanded that Moscow acknowledge its responsibility for the aircraft’s crash. We assess that Baku will likely seek to leverage these tensions to extract concessions from Moscow and to crack down on opposition and media over espionage allegations. The ongoing regional tensions will likely persist in the short to medium term.

Feb 10.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

KURSK: On the six-month anniversary of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk, Ukrainian forces launched a limited offensive operation south-east of Sudzha which saw them advance at least three miles (5km)
STRIKES: Russian strikes over the past few days have involved only unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) but in significantly large numbers, frequently involving more than 100 drones
CHINA: Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly plans to attend Russia’s Victory Day celebrations on 9 May to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War
FORECAST: US President Donald Trump has reported that he had spoken to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin by telephone about ending the conflict
BAKHMUT: Geolocated footage published on 6 February indicates that Russian forces have continued to steadily advance in the centre of Chasiv Yar, including progress westwards of the Refractory Plant; this likely indicates that they are not in control of the facility. The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) also claimed on 9 February that their forces had taken Orikhovo-Vasylivka, a town located around six miles (10km) to the north of Chasiv Yar; however, this cannot be confirmed, and some Russian sources have refuted this.
BAKHMUT: As in other sectors of the frontline, Ukrainian forces continue to launch counter-attacks, with such an attack reported on 7 February indicating that Ukraine regained some positions along the T-0514 road south of the town. The road runs to the south-west to Kostiyantinivka; as such, it is a key ground line of communication (GLOC) for Ukrainian forces and a key target for the advancing Russian forces. If Ukraine can continue to launch such counter-attacks, they will likely continue to slow Russia’s advance and efforts to consolidate control over the area.
BAKHMUT: On 7 February, the Russian MoD claimed its forces seized Toretsk, though geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces are continuing to contest the outskirts of the town. Russian forces have nonetheless continued to make grinding advances in the north of the town in recent days, with geolocated footage from 7 and 8 February confirming said advances. It therefore remains likely that Russian forces have not yet pushed Ukrainian forces out of the town.
DONETSK: Pokrovsk remains one of the key hotspots along the frontline, with Russian forces continuing to sustain a high operational tempo. On 9 February, Ukraine’s General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to focus their operational efforts on Pokrovsk, alongside Kursk. On 10 February, Russia’s MoD claimed that the settlement of Uspenivka, to the west of Pokrovsk, had been nearly cleared of Ukrainian forces, though such claims have yet to be visually confirmed. The MoD noted the presence of a few pockets of Ukrainian resistance. Geolocated footage from 9 February also showed recent Russian advances to the south of Pokrovsk. Additional footage from 9 February shows that Ukrainian forces had recently advanced near Mine No. 3 in south-eastern Pishchane, located to the south-west of Pokrovsk.
KHARKIV: Geolocated footage published on 8 February indicates that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced in central Vovchansk. The footage indicates that Ukrainian forces are now in control of the majority of the Aggregate Plant in the town centre north of the Vovcha River, over which both sides have fought for months.
KURSK: On 6 February, the sixth-month anniversary of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk, Ukrainian forces launched a limited offensive operation south-east of Sudzha, which saw them advance at least three miles (5km). Russian sources estimate that the Ukrainians used between 30 and 50 armoured vehicles during the attack. It remains unclear how far the Ukrainians have penetrated to the south-east of Sudzha, with Russian sources offering contradicting reports. Nevertheless, the mechanised offensive has exposed limitations in Russia’s frontline defences and underscores Kyiv’s readiness to commit scarce resources to counter-attack operations designed to prevent Russian advances, particularly in the strategically important region of Kursk. Kyiv still intends to leverage the region as a bargaining chip in future peace negotiations.
KURSK: Russian sources broadly reported that their forces repelled subsequent Ukrainian mechanised assaults on 6-7 February while acknowledging that the Ukrainians have advanced. Russian sources, including President Vladimir Putin, have in recent days confirmed that numerous ostensibly elite airborne (VDV) and naval infantry units were involved in defensive operations during the attack, underscoring the current Russian commitment of elite troops to the Kursk salient. Unconfirmed reports indicate that the commander of the 11th VDV Brigade has been removed by the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) for failing to prepare and defend Russian positions in the area, notably around Cherkasskaya Konopelka, located around three miles (5km) to the south-east of Sudzha. Geolocated footage published on 7 and 8 February indicates that Russian forces retain positions in the south of the settlement, though other sources claim Ukrainian forces have taken control of the entire town.
KURSK: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also reported on 7 February that North Korean forces are once again engaging in combat operations in Kursk after a short pause. This aligns with our earlier assessment that any North Korean ‘withdrawal’ would likely be temporary (akin to a tactical pause) as North Korean forces reconstitute and prepare for further offensive operations.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Over the past few days, Russian forces have made confirmed gains across the Oskil-Kreminna frontline. As of 8 February, Russian forces made marginal advances north-east of Zapadne, located to the north of Kupiansk. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are systematically attempting to cross the Oskil River, to the east of Dvorchina and to the north of Kupiansk. Meanwhile, further south, geolocated footage from 7 February indicates recent Russian advances north-west of Zahryzove, located to the north-east of Borova and near the Oskil River. Additionally, further to the south-east, more footage posted on 7 February shows recent Russian advances north-west of Yampolivka, located to the north-east of Lyman.
SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage from 7 February indicated that Russian forces advanced north-east of Novyi Komar, located around two miles (3km) to the north of Velyka Novosilka.
STRIKES: Russian strikes over the past few days have involved only unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), but launched in significantly large numbers, frequently involving in all more than 100 projectiles in each instance. For example, in the attack on 9 February, Russia launched in all 151 UAVs, and 139 the previous day. The strike mix typically included Shahed-136/131 drones and decoy UAVs. A large number of the latter types were reported lost, while Ukraine’s interception rate of drones remained high. Nonetheless, hits were recorded across the country, including in the capital Kyiv, where falling debris from the 10 February attack caused a fire at a non-residential building in Solomenskyi urban district.
STRIKES: Meanwhile, early on 10 February, Ukraine reportedly launched a drone attack against the Afipskiy oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai. Andrii Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine’s Centre for Countering Disinformation, reported the incident. Kovalenko further stated that the facility produces diesel fuel and aviation kerosene used by Russian forces and processes 6.25 m tonnes of oil annually.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

CHINA: Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly plans to attend Russia’s Victory Day celebrations on 9 May to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War. Russia’s ambassador to China, Igor Morgulov, disclosed earlier on 10 February that Xi has accepted an invitation to attend the event in the capital Moscow. However, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, Guo Jiakun, declined to comment on Xi’s possible attendance during a regular briefing.
CHINA: Russia traditionally uses its Victory Day celebrations to showcase its military might. The Kremlin has also previously drawn parallels to the Second World War and Russia’s ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine, likely to ‘justify’ the war to domestic audiences. Xi’s possible attendance at Victory Day celebrations will highly likely further doubts about China’s self-proclaimed neutrality on the war in Ukraine. In turn, Xi’s attendance will likely undermine Beijing’s position as a possible mediator in possible negotiations in the coming months among Ukraine and its Western partners.
RECRUITMENT: Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) has been working with combat brigades on an option that would encourage Ukrainians between the ages of 18 and 24 to participate in the war effort. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shared details on the scheme on 7 February, clarifying that these contracts are for people who want to join the army, rather than a form of mobilisation. Zelensky added that the contracts are valid for a year and offer many benefits, including ‘very high’ remuneration. The Biden administration had urged Ukraine to lower the conscription age to 18 in late 2024; reports emerged last month that incumbent US President Donald Trump intends to urge Zelensky to do the same.
RECRUITMENT: Such contracts likely aim to provide Kyiv with alternative options in order to avoid making the decision to lower the mobilisation age, which would highly likely be unpopular in Ukrainian society. The development of such an option could also be aimed at appealing to the Trump administration with the wider aim of convincing the US to continue military support. However, given that contracts are voluntary, this is unlikely to radically increase the rate of personnel generation, in contrast to an expansion of mobilisation. The development reaffirms our assessment that, despite significant manpower shortages, a lowering of the mobilisation age to 18 remains unlikely in the coming months due to domestic political issues.
SANCTIONS: President Trump is prepared to ramp up sanctions against Moscow to bring about an end to the war, according to, Keith Kellogg, his special envoy for Russia and Ukraine. Kellogg assessed on 6 February that the US can increase economic pressure against Russia, specifically in relation to energy. During the course of the war, the former Biden administration imposed sweeping sanctions against Russia, often working alongside European partners to enforce measures. Russia became the most sanctioned country by the West following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, though it has sought to find ways to circumvent sanctions and has succeeded in this regard in some areas.
SANCTIONS: Nevertheless, Kellogg’s comments align with our previous assessments that the US will likely seek to use sanctions pressure (or possibly sanctions relief at a later date) to push Russia to participate in talks to end the war. However, despite increasing challenges facing the Russian economy, Moscow will highly likely seek to continue the war effort for as long as it can if the US enforces tougher sanctions. As such, US sanctions pressure will unlikely yield immediate results to encourage Russia to end the war, though it could realistically be a factor which pushes Moscow to the negotiating table over the coming months.

FORECAST

NEGOTIATIONS: On 8 February, US President Donald Trump reported that he had spoken to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin by telephone about ending the conflict. However, Trump declined to say how many times the two presidents had spoken and offered limited details about the talks. The Kremlin has neither confirmed nor denied that Putin and Trump have spoken, though such dialogue would mark a significant step in facilitating the early steps towards negotiations to end the war. The Biden administration had ruled out peace talks without Ukraine’s approval, while Trump’s comments reflect his administration’s efforts to lay the groundwork for possible talks in the coming months. Although Trump claimed Putin ‘does care’ about battlefield casualties, we assess that Russia will highly likely push to achieve as many of its war objectives in Ukraine before it is ready to end the war through diplomacy in the coming weeks and months, meaning further offensives are likely in early 2025. However, Trump assessed on 9 February that the US is making progress in its conversations aimed at eventually ending the war. Trump said that he did not want to share the nature of the discussions, though he did say that he expects to have more contact with Putin. Even if dialogue increases between the US and Russia on ending the war over the coming months, Kyiv and Moscow are the actors which will make the final decision regarding whether to negotiate. Our assessment remains that neither side is currently willing to make significant concessions to bring the war to a quick end; as such, negotiations will likely take time. Meanwhile, President Zelensky stated on 7 February that he would be prepared to negotiate with Putin as long as Ukraine has support and security guarantees from European partners and the US. Kyiv would almost certainly perceive security guarantees (at a minimum) as being necessary to bolster its position ahead of any possible negotiations and politically unpopular concessions required to end the war. Zelensky also assessed that the absence of security guarantees would encourage Russia to relaunch an invasion to occupy other areas of Ukraine in the future. As such, Ukraine will highly likely maintain that robust Western security guarantees are needed for deterrence over the long term, though it remains uncertain whether the Trump administration will want to commit to safeguarding Ukraine’s post-war security. (Source: Sibylline)

14 Feb 25. Donald Trump has announced that the US, Russian and Ukrainian officials will meet in Munich today for three-way talks on how to end the war.

“Russia is going to be there with our people…Ukraine is also invited,” the US president said ahead of the security conference, adding that “high-level” people from all three countries would be involved.

However, a Ukrainian official said that talks with Moscow are “not expected” and that there “is nothing on the table”. Russia is not officially taking part in the annual forum in Germany.

Mr Trump shocked his Nato allies earlier this week when he phoned Vladimir Putin and agreed to “immediately” start negotiations on how to end the conflict in Ukraine, sparking long-held fears that Kyiv could be excluded from peace talks.

Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, is due to meet JD Vance, US vice-president, as well as Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, on Friday morning. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

13 Feb 25. Ukraine has announced sanctions on former president Petro Poroshenko and four other oligarchs and political figures accused of undermining national security, including a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved a decision by his National Security and Defence Council to impose the sanctions, according to a presidential decree published on Thursday — a day after US President Donald Trump stunned Kyiv and Europe by calling Putin and announcing US-Russia talks to end the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. A senior Ukrainian official close to Zelenskyy told the FT the move was related to future elections, suggesting the president was moving on political opponents. As well as Poroshenko, the sanctions target Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian political operative and close ally of Putin; Ukrainian oligarchs and former co-owners of PrivatBank Igor Kolomoisky and Gennadiy Bogolyubov; and Ukrainian businessman Kostyantyn Zhevago. The move rankled Ukraine’s political elites and sparked condemnation by allies of Poroshenko. Two high-ranking western diplomats in Kyiv said they were stunned. (Source: FT.com)

13 Feb 25. Trump says he backs Ukraine, but early concessions to Russia spark concerns.

Summary
U.S. gives Putin ‘gifts’ before talks, says former U.S. envoy
Trump says he is backing Ukraine
U.S. faces reality over Ukraine war

U.S. President Donald Trump has promised a swift end to the Ukraine war but with talks about to begin the author of “The Art of the Deal” may have already complicated his task by sacrificing leverage. Trump, who took office on January 20, separately discussed the war on Wednesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and told U.S. officials to begin talks on ending the nearly three-year-long war. The phone calls came shortly after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Ukraine’s military allies in Brussels that a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders – before Russia annexed Crimea – was unrealistic and that the U.S. does not see NATO membership for Kyiv as part of a solution. He said U.S. troops would not be part of any security presence in Ukraine. (Source: Reuters)

12 Feb 25. Hegseth Calls on NATO Allies to Lead Europe’s Security, Rules Out Support for Ukraine Membership. Stating that the U.S. does not believe NATO membership for Ukraine would be a “realistic” outcome of any negotiated peace settlement with Russia, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, today, called on NATO allied countries to increase their defense spending and take the lead in providing for Ukraine and Europe’s security. The secretary addressed the war in Ukraine and European security in general — while delivering opening remarks at the 26th iteration of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels. The UDCG, which was founded in response to Russia’s unprovoked Feb. 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine, is a coalition of some 50 nations that meet regularly to discuss Ukraine’s security needs.

“We are at … a critical moment. As the war approaches its third anniversary, our message is clear: The bloodshed must stop, and this war must end,” Hegseth told the group.

As an alternative to granting Ukraine NATO membership, Hegseth said that any security guarantees for Ukraine “must be backed by capable European and non-European troops.”

“If these troops are deployed as peacekeepers to Ukraine at any point, they should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission, and they should not be covered under Article 5 [of the NATO treaty],” Hegseth said, adding that there must also be robust oversight of the line of contact from the international community.

“To be clear, as part of any security guarantee, there will not be U.S. troops deployed to Ukraine,” he said.

Stating that durable peace in Ukraine can only be established by merging allied strength with a realistic battlefield assessment, Hegseth also said the UDCG should recognize that it would be an “unrealistic objective” to try to return Ukraine to its pre-2014 borders.

“Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering,” he said.

Calling on members of the contact group to “meet the moment,” Hegseth said that European NATO members should view safeguarding European security as an “imperative” and that providing an “overwhelming share” of both nonlethal and lethal aid is part of that.

“This means donating more ammunition and equipment, leveraging comparative advantages, expanding your defense industrial base and — importantly — leveling with your citizens about the threat facing Europe,” Hegseth said, adding that he agrees with President Donald J. Trump’s assessment that NATO nations should be increasing their defense spending levels from 2% of their gross domestic product to 5%.

“Increasing your commitment to your own security is a down payment for the future; a down payment … [on] peace through strength,” Hegseth told the group.

Explaining that the U.S. needs to prioritize securing its borders while at the same facing peer competitor China and that country’s “intent to threaten our homeland and core national interests in the Indo-Pacific,” Hegseth called on NATO’s European countries to address the continent’s security concerns.

“As the United States prioritizes its attention to these threats, European allies must lead from the front,” Hegseth said.

“We ask each of your countries to step up on fulfilling the commitments that you have made, and we challenge your countries — and your citizens — to double down and re-commit yourselves not only to Ukraine’s immediate security needs but to Europe’s long-term defense and deterrence goals,” he continued.

Though Hegseth said assuring the decades-old NATO alliance endures for decades into the future will require European allies to take ownership of the continent’s security, he also made clear that the U.S. still stands firm with those allies.

“The United States remains committed to the NATO alliance and to the defense partnership with Europe, full stop,” Hegseth said.

The secretary added that the U.S. will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship that encourages dependency. The relationship will prioritize empowering Europe to take responsibility for its own security.

“Honesty will be our policy going forward — but only in the spirit of solidarity,” he said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

13 Feb 25. Trump call with Putin proves Russia is ‘impossible’ to defeat, says Medvedev. Donald Trump’s phone call with Vladimir Putin showed the West it is “impossible” to defeat Russia, Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday. Mr Trump spoke with the Russian president for 90 minutes on Wednesday, saying he would “immediately” start negotiations with Putin and save “millions of lives”. Speaking in the Oval Office, Mr Trump said his first in-person meeting with Putin would be in Saudi Arabia in the “not too distant future”. Mr Medvedev, Russia’s former president and deputy chairman of its powerful security council, said the call showed his country could not be “brought to our knees”. “There is not and cannot be a main country and a senior ruler of the planet,” Mr Medvedev said. “This lesson should be learned by the arrogant American elites.” European allies, including the UK and Sweden, insisted they saw Ukraine’s future in Nato amid fears of a favourable peace deal for Russia. ,(Source: Daily Telegraph)

12 Feb 25. President Donald Trump has said the US and Moscow will begin negotiations “immediately” on ending the war in Ukraine after speaking with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Trump said the two leaders had also agreed to work together and visit each other’s nations. He added that he would inform Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of their call. “I just had a lengthy and highly productive phone call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations. We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now.” (Source: FT.com)

12 Feb 25. Sergey Mironov: “Trump is right when he admits that Ukraine may become part of Russia – this is the right way to lasting peace.” Sergey Mironov, chairman of the party and leader of «A Just Russia – Patriots – For Truth» faction in the State Duma, believes that US President Donald Trump’s assumption that Ukraine could become part of Russia in the future is justified. “Ukraine is a failed state, and its preservation does not guarantee lasting peace in Europe,” the Russian politician is convinced.

“US Secretary of State Marco Rubio assures that the United States wants Ukraine to remain an independent country. However, his boss, President Trump, had previously suggested that Ukraine could become part of Russia. For him, the return of the US funds spent on Ukraine is the #1 priority. In fact, Trump does not care about the fate of Ukraine and Ukrainians. For him, it’s just a commodity, even if it’s expired in the case of Zelensky.

But Russia cares a lot, and in any case it will seek the liberation of Ukraine from the dictatorship of Zelensky and the neo-Nazis – with or without the help of the United States. Only then will Ukrainian people have the opportunity to freely choose their future, as residents of Crimea, Donbass and Novorossiya did earlier. They already have something to compare with: on the one hand, Russia, which is rebuilding Donetsk, Lugansk, Mariupol and the entire Azov region, and on the other, the corrupt Zelensky regime and the West, which is driving Ukrainians to slaughter and dreaming of seizing the bowels of Ukraine. Today, Ukraine is a failed bankrupt state, a mistake on the political map of Europe, a failed experiment by the West to create an anti-Russia. I am sure that sooner or later all the historically Russian regions of Ukraine, which are the east, south and center of the country, will return to their historical homeland. Because that’s what the people who live there want. It will be a real democracy. And the sooner this choice is recognized in the West, the sooner peace will come.” (Source: Sergey Mironov)

12 Feb 25. A return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an “unrealistic objective”, the US defence secretary said on Wednesday, as he poured cold water on the prospect of Nato membership for the country. Donald Trump has vowed to end the almost three-year-long war as soon as possible, spooking many European Nato allies who fear they will be forced to accept a peace deal not on Ukraine’s terms. “We want, like you, a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine,” said Pete Hegseth in Brussels. But he added that a return to the country’s borders, before the Russian annexation of Crimea and de facto occupation of the eastern Donbas region, was “an unrealistic objective”. “Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering,” he added. The defence secretary’s comments came at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), a body that co-ordinate arms supplies to Ukraine in Brussels. The Trump administration’s calls for a speedy end to the Ukraine war mark a big shift from former US president Joe Biden, who committed to funding Kyiv’s war effort while deploying sanctions against the Russian economy. In a further sign of possible détente with the Kremlin, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff travelled to Moscow on Tuesday to secure the release of Marc Fogel, a US teacher detained in Russia since 2022. Kyiv has demanded Nato membership as the ultimate security guarantee against future Russian aggression. But at the meeting of more than 50 western allies who send military support to Ukraine, Hegseth said: “The United States does not believe that Nato membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.” He also ruled out the deployment of US troops in the country after the war with Russia ends. “Any security guarantee should be backed by capable European and non-European troops,” Hegseth said, adding that troops deployed to Ukraine should be not be part of any Nato mission, nor be covered under the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defence clause. (Source: FT.com)

12 Feb 25. Ukraine has launched a military recruitment campaign targeting 18 to 24-year-olds as army chiefs try to address a manpower crisis on the front lines. Offering a one-year contract with a salary of about $24,000 and additional bonuses, the initiative comes as Kyiv faces high rates of desertion amid falling morale and heavy casualties. Russia’s stark numerical advantage has helped its troops to advance steadily on the eastern battlefield, as its full-scale invasion nears its fourth year. The drive to woo younger recruits was launched hours before a massive Russian ballistic missile attack struck civilian infrastructure in Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was also expected to meet US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent later on Wednesday to discuss ending the war and securing US access to the country’s natural resources. The campaign was announced on Tuesday evening alongside a promotional video showing a montage of soldiers leaping into action as cash rolls off a printer. As rock music plays, an opening message declares: “Change your life in a year.” “This is a new approach to building a professional army,” said defence minister Rustem Umerov. “We are engaging motivated warriors, providing them with development opportunities, and creating fair conditions for service.” (Source: FT.com)

12 Feb 25. Russia Deploys Donkeys to Transport Ammunition in Ukraine Amid Shortage of Combat Vehicles. The Russian military has begun using donkeys to transport ammunition and supplies to frontline troops in Ukraine amid shortage of combat vehicles. Last week, pro-Kremlin military bloggers shared footage of soldiers interacting with donkeys, claiming they were being used as pack animals.

“The guys in one of the directions were given a donkey for logistics. A real donkey,” a military blogger said in a post in Telegram. According to reports, Russia’s defense ministry was directly supplying the animals to troops.

The extent of the donkeys’ deployment to help troops in their battle against Ukraine remains unclear, but several Russian officials publicly defended the practice after the images went viral among military bloggers.

“There’s nothing wrong with this,” Viktor Sobolev, a member of the State Duma’s defense committee, told the Russian outlet Gazeta.

Sobolev said the deployment of donkeys is a practical response to the challenges of supplying troops in difficult terrain. “If any methods are used for delivery, including donkeys, horses, and so on, then that’s normal.”

He compared the practice to World War II, when animals were widely used in transportation, including horses for artillery movement and dogs trained to carry explosives to enemy tanks. Another member of the State Duma defense committee, Viktor Zavarin, told the Russian TV network RTVI, “Let them work; let the donkeys contribute to victory.” (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

12 Feb 25. Finnish Steel Eagle ER UAV Tested in Ukraine. Finnish technology company Insta Group Oy has secured mass-scale production for thousands of its Steel Eagle Extended Range (ER) unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) per month, announced Teemu Sainio, director of communications at Insta. The company, which specializes in defence solutions and cyber security, has developed a new, more effective version of the combination of a drone and a patented explosive charge. The new version, the Insta Steel Eagle ER (Extended Range), is the result of international collaboration. Compared to the previous Insta Steel Eagle product, it brings a more capable and affordable solution to the defence technology market. The new solution combines broad expertise with state-of-the-art technology tested in harsh conditions. We have designed the patented explosive charge. The drone equipment that provides better performance as well as a longer range and higher load carrying capacity is supplied by our Ukrainian partner that operates in the wider drone ecosystem, explains Tuure Lehtoranta, Vice President, Sales and Customers, Defence at Insta.

With the drone, the explosive charge can be transported by air above the desired target, where it can then be detonated. The charge contains balls, and it delivers fragments across a wide area of effect, precisely striking the desired target from above.

– The requirements of modern electronic warfare, including the ability to tolerate interference, have been considered in the development of the system.

The UAV system includes a 15 inch carrier for its Insta Steel Burst Payload, relay UAV, and a transmitting ground antenna. The payload includes 3,000 steel or tungsten pellets with an effective aerial coverage of around 2,000 m2. According to Sainio, if the payload is detonated 20 m above ground it is capable of 1.5 impacts per square metre. Each pellet is 3.7 mm in diameter and can penetrate around 2 mm of steel at 20 m range.

The requirements of modern electronic warfare, including the ability to tolerate interference, have been considered in the development of the system.

Agile Development of State-of-the-Art Technology

The changed security environment has created new opportunities also for Insta, which for years now has focused on developing critical defence technologies. A rapid development process and learning from others are essential in building future capabilities. Collaboration and agile productization enable applying these capabilities and lessons also in other countries’ defence. Currently, the solution is available for the Ukrainian market. In the future, however, the marketing licenses applied for as part of international collaboration allow selling and marketing the solution in Europe and in NATO countries as well.

Innovations that Attract international Interest

Insta has plenty of experience and competence in the fields of cyber security, software development, and defence technology. This comprehensive expertise can meet the future needs of the international defence market in a versatile and tailored manner.

The patented Insta Safe EOD drone solution is an efficient approach to the safe clearing of mines and explosives. With the new method, the clearance personnel no longer have to enter the immediate danger area. The solution uses a drone for identifying the explosive ordnance to be cleared and delivering a clearing charge.

Insta Steel Eagle ER – more capable and effective flying directional explosive charge

Patented explosive charge with a drone designed and tested for demanding conditions
Coming from above, the explosive effect can be freely adjusted according to the altitude of the drone; it has an opening angle of 90 degrees
Charge contains steel or tungsten balls
Delivers fragments across a specific area of effect, precisely striking the desired target from above
More than 3,000 fragments over an area of effect of approx. 2,000 m2
Explosive charge weighing approx. 3.6 kg

Insta Safe EOD – Decisive Efficiency

Unique, safe, and economic solution for clearing explosives with commercially available drones
Especially suited for humanitarian demining but also applicable for military purposes
Clearance personnel do not have to enter the immediate danger area
Uses drones for identifying the explosive ordnance to be cleared, delivering a clearing charge, detonating the charge, and verifying the clearance event
Cost-efficient: Affordable purchase price with simple manufacturing and logistics

Insta SafeLink Secret – Secured Communications and High Performance

The most advanced encryption device on the market allows for protecting security classification SECRET level data
Next-generation Finnish encryption device that meets the requirements of TL II and FIPS 140- 3 Level 3 as well as industry standards
HW based red–black separation, active intrusion detection and response; Uses quantum secure encryption algorithms
High performance and high data volumes without slowdown – 10 Gbps
Life-cycle support for more than 10 years – even under exceptional conditions (Source: UAS VISION)

12 Feb 25. Counter Ukrainian FPV Drones. Russian troops have set up a 2km (1.24 mile) mesh netting “tunnel” on a road linking Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. The mesh netting is designed to protect Russian logistics against first-person view (FPV) drones that have become a ubiquitous attack weapon for both sides. The move comes as Russian forces are launching another major push against the town of Chasiv Yar.

“To cover the supply routes of the Russian Armed Forces from FPV drones, military engineers are installing protective nets,” a Russian soldier said on a video showing the construction of the mesh net tunnel. “Our group maintains more than two kilometers of anti-drone nets. The nets are placed on the most exposed sections of the roads to ensure the safe movement of our equipment. We strive to continuously expand the coverage area, enhancing the installation technology of the nets to set them up more quickly.”

The video shows Russian troops unrolling a spool of mesh netting, which they then attached to 15- to 20-foot poles spaced evenly along both sides of the road. The theory is that the netting will provide a buffer to keep Ukrainian FPV drones from directly striking vehicles.

“The expectation is that the FPV drone, on the final trajectory of its attack, will simply get entangled with its propellers in the taut net or go off course, even if it manages to break it,”

the Russian Military Informant Telegram channel wrote.

Yuri Podolyaka, an influential Russian milblogger, suggested that the anti-FPV drone netting is a creation by troops in the field on an ad hoc basis because the Russian Defense Ministry is providing insufficient EW equipment.

“This is the ingenuity of the fighters against the bureaucrats of the General Staff who are still unable to understand that today electronic warfare is more important than tanks,” Podolyaka wrote on Telegram. “And even more so than a bunch of different expensive junk that was created for war and which is absolutely useless now. But which is still being mass-produced by our factories (and often ahead of schedule).”

Still, creating a netted ‘tunnel’ of sorts will also confine Russian forces to a very narrow and well-defined corridor that can be bombarded by artillery and other means of attack. This could prove to be a far more ‘fatal funnel’ than what an open road plagued by FPV attacks would be. (Source: UAS VISION/The War Zone)

10 Feb 25. Donald Trump’s administration has paused its peace plan for Ukraine to give Europe a seat at the negotiating table, The Telegraph can disclose. The US president’s envoy for Ukraine has promised to hold individual talks with Nato allies before finalising the long-awaited blueprint to end the war. Gen Keith Kellogg said he would seek views on the shape of any peace deal and what governments could contribute to the process in recent talks with European diplomats. He promised to hold those negotiations with “prime ministers and presidents” from the Nato alliance, in a move that will reassure those who fear being frozen out of the talks by Washington. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

10 Feb 25. Ukraine claims 10,000th Russian tank kill of the war. The claims are virtually impossible to verify, with open-source intelligence outlet Oryx stating a significantly lower number. Ukraine has claimed its 10,000th Russian tank destroyed since February 2022, a landmark in the near three-year-old war that has likely seen more than one m combined military casualties. The Ukraine-Russia war has been notable for the return of armoured warfare to Europe for the first time in generations, with the scale of equipment attrition, particularly for Russia, forcing the use of tanks held in reserve to be refurbished and pushed into the frontline. To highlight the volume of equipment loss, in just the first ten months of the war, Russian forces were calculated to have lost more military platforms than seen during its two Chechen wars combined. Since then, losses have continued to escalate, with Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence on 10 February 2025 also claiming over 20,000 Russian armoured vehicles knocked out or destroyed, in addition to the 10,000 tanks of various designs. Other notable claims include nearly 23,000 Russian artillery platforms knocked out or destroyed, along with more than 1,200 multiple launch rocket systems. Open-source intelligence gathering site Oryx states that Russia has had 3,740 tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned, or captured. Of this, 2,672 are judged to have been destroyed. However, Western officials broadly consider Ukraine’s claims to be reasonably accurate, with Kyiv’s reports of 850,000 Russian personnel killed or injured in the war close to the figures considered in the Western capitals. In January, the US Department of Defense said that Russia had suffered “more than 700,000 casualties”, a number that aligns relatively closely with Ukraine’s own claims.

According to GlobalData, Russia’s land inventory prior to its invasion of Ukraine indicated a potential fleet of 16,970 tanks, comprised of 550 1990s era T-90s, 3,450 T-80s and 8,950 T-72s from the 1970s, with a further 2,000 T-64s and 2,400 T-62s, originating from the 1960s. Of the new T-14 Armata MBTs, Russia was thought to hold around 20 in its order of battle. By mid-November 2023, it was estimated that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had cost Moscow more than 2,400 main battle tanks – equivalent to around 15% of its pre-war inventory – at the time. It was reported in January 2024 that despite an increase in Russian MBT and other armoured vehicle losses in Ukraine, Moscow’s ramping up of its industrial capacity meant that it could replenish damaged or destroyed equipment. Russia is thought to be able to produce or repair at least 100 MBTs per month. However, equipment losses have slowed since 2022, as the type of battles being fought in Ukraine shifted from combined arms operations to more basic infantry tactics, backed by immense use of artillery, glide bombs, and loitering munitions. Russia losses of combat vehicles in 2023 was around 40% fewer than in 2022, a trend that has continued as the focus shifts to infantry wave assaults.

Ukraine-Russia war: current operations

Amid ongoing rumours that US President Donald Trump is seeking ways to force an end to the Ukraine-Russia war, and as Washington’s own leadership of allied support of Kyiv comes under increasing scrutiny, combat operations continue along the front.

It is understood that North Korean forces have pulled back from the frontline having sustained up to 4,000 casualties in operations in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, with Ukrainian forces still holding onto some 320km2 of Russian territory.

In the east of Ukraine, Russian forces still maintain a bridgehead on the west side of the Oskil River near Kupiask. Near Pokrovsk, Russia is around 2km from its southern outskirts, with reports of heavy fighting at numerous locations along the frontline.

Russia is thought to have sustained some 50,000 military casualties since the start of the year, with daily claims by Ukraine of above 1,000 Russian personnel killed or wounded.

Despite this, it is considered unlikely that there will be any general mobilisation in Russia in 2025, should a ceasefire or peace deal be unable to be found, with existing financial incentives, heaving focussed on the rural areas and east of the country, replenishing human losses.

For Ukraine, it is thought that its most critical weakness is the diminishing pool of personnel, with recruitment drafts through conscription expected to reduce further from the current 25 years of age. Ukraine has sought to digitise much of its military recruitment in a bid to boost personnel numbers. (Source: army-technology.com)

10 Feb 25. Booby-Trapped Goggles Sent to Russian FPV Drone Operators. A batch of first-person view (FPV) goggles delivered to Russian soldiers was discovered to be booby-trapped, with each device containing a plastic explosive charge designed to detonate upon activation, according to Russian military-linked Telegram channels and state media. The pro-Kremlin Razved Dozor Telegram channel first reported the news, stating that the booby-trapped goggles were intercepted before reaching frontline troops.

“Attention! According to our sources, enemy saboteurs have attempted a mass terrorist act on Russian territory using volunteers (without their knowledge),” the post stated. “The competent authorities are already working on the situation.”

Razved Dozor noted that the goggles were sent as part of humanitarian aid packages. It remains unclear how many devices were intercepted or if any successfully reached Russian troops, as authorities have not disclosed the full extent of the incident.

According to reports, each device contained an estimated 10-15 grams of plastic explosives hidden near the cooling fan, positioned close to the operator’s temple. The detonation mechanism was reportedly linked to the power button, making activation potentially lethal.

Russian state news agency TASS later confirmed the reports, citing Igor Potapov, a representative of JSC NPP, a Russian defense electronics company that supplies combat equipment to Russian forces.

Potapov claimed that the explosive-laden goggles were Skyzone Cobra X v4 models, a widely used FPV headset for drone operations. He stated that the devices were delivered through a logistics service by an individual named “Roman” under the guise of humanitarian aid.

“When the glasses were turned on, they detonated and exploded. Upon further inspection, all the products in the batch were found to contain plastic explosives,” he said.

Potapov urged troops to carefully inspect all equipment received through unofficial channels. “Humanitarian aid always requires verification if it is provided by new, unfamiliar individuals,” Potapov warned. The alleged attack bears similarities to previous sabotage tactics, including Israel’s reported mass use of explosive-rigged pagers and walkie-talkies against Hezbollah militants in September 2024. That incident, which involved remotely detonated devices, was said to have killed dozens and wounded thousands. Pro-Russian sources speculated that Ukraine may have attempted to replicate this strategy, though no official attribution has been made. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

06 Feb 25. UK leaks development of “Snapper” and “Wasp” naval drones for Ukraine. Ukraine’s use of uncrewed maritime vessel, so-called UMVs, in operations against Russia have had a huge impact. The UK appears to be helping to develop two uncrewed maritime vessels (UMV) for use by Ukrainian forces, which have achieved notable successes against Russian naval assets in the Black Sea through the use of UMVs functioning as one-way attack munitions. Revealed in a pair of UK parliamentary written responses on 4 February 2025, UK Minister for Defence Procurement, Maria Eagle, made mention of “Wasp” and “Snapper” UMV programmes, which themselves were apparently referenced in an ADS Annual Dinner on 28 January by the UK Secretary of State for Defence, John Healey. Regarding the Wasp and Snapper UMVs, Eagle said both were “a new uncrewed maritime system” that had been “rapidly developed” specifically to support Ukraine.

“The system is currently undergoing final testing, and further details will be set out in due course,” Eagle stated.

When contacted, the UK Ministry of Defence declined to provide any further details to Naval Technology regarding development of the Wasp and Snapper uncrewed systems.

The revelation of two further military capabilities being developed by the UK for Ukraine followed the announcement – and then subsequent silence – of the Gravehawk air defence system being provided to Kyiv.

How will UMVs change naval warfare?

In much the same way as smaller, attritable UAS have shifted the balance of power from crewed to uncrewed in the land domain, so too will operations at sea follow.

Analysis conducted by GlobalData predicts that UMVs, both platforms operating on the surface as well as subsurface, will change naval warfare.

Ukraine’s use of naval drones against Russian forces has been a case in point, using rapidly developed surface attack platforms to overwhelm and strike large surface combatants.

In March 2024, Ukrainian leadership forced Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to withdraw from the battlefront after more than one-third of its fleet was seriously damaged or destroyed entirely.

The damage sustained by the Russian Navy, caused in great part by naval drones, has required military leaders across the globe to give additional thought to the way such platforms will alter the future of naval war.

In August 2024, the UK Ministry of Defence stated that Ukraine’s naval defence technology had “proven invaluable” in the Black Sea region, with 26 Russian Navy vessels damaged or destroyed in the region between February 2022 and June 2024. (Source: naval-technology.com)

06 Feb 25. US leadership absent as UK to chair Ukraine meeting. The US Defence Secretary will not chair a key meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group in Brussels next week. The revelation that the UK defence secretary will chair the next iteration of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) – the position previously the purview of the US Defense Secretary – has raised questions over the future intent of Washington in its support of Ukraine. In a social media post on 6 February, the UK’s mission to Nato confirmed previous reports that UK Defence Secretary John Healey would convene the next meeting of the UDCG, due to take place at Nato’s HQ in Brussels on 12 February 2025. The UK Joint Delegation to Nato stated the UDCG would gather ahead of the Nato Defence Ministerial Meeting to “discuss priorities for Ukraine”, as Ukrainian forces continue their fight against Russian forces. Apparently absent a US defense secretary, it is unclear what US Department of Defense (DoD) presence will be at the UDCG next week. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia war in 2022, UDCG meetings have been chaired by now former US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, the 25th and last of which took place on 9 January this year.

In his final address to the UDCG, Austin said: “This coalition has had [Ukraine’s] backs for nearly three hard years of war, and we must not stop now.”

The UDCG brings together some 50 nations that are providing defence support to Ukraine, either through military equipment or finances used to acquire vital capabilities. Since 2022, UDCG members have contributed more than $126bn in security assistance to Ukraine, including tanks, munitions, fighter aircraft, and ammunition.

When contacted by Army Technology, the US DoD declined to comment on the absence of a US chair at the next UDCG, or whether Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth would attend future meetings.

Trump skeptical of continuing Ukraine support

Since the administration of former President Joe Biden left office on 25 January 2025 to make way for the return of President Donald Trump, there have been no official announcements of US military and security assistance packages to Ukraine.

It has previously been reported by Army Technology that $4bn in Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) funding is available to use should it be deemed necessary.

However, Trump is a noted skeptic of continuing support to Ukraine, stating before his accession to the White House for the second time that he would end the Ukraine-Russia war inside 48 hours of his taking office.

This stance has shifted, with the intention that a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia could be reached in 100 days of Trump returning to power. This would provide a notional timeline of a cessation of hostilities by May this year.

With US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth certain to not chair the UDCG, and an unknown quantity for the Nato defence ministerial meeting, a series of unknown’s hover of the Western Alliance’s support of Ukraine.

Should it be shorn of US finances and military equipment stockpiles, the future for Ukraine could be bleak. (Source: army-technology.com)

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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.

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