NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Sept 02.

02 Sept 24.  Poland and other countries bordering Ukraine have a “duty” to shoot down incoming Russian missiles before they enter their airspace despite the opposition of Nato, the Polish foreign minister has said. Radosław Sikorski told the Financial Times in an interview that Warsaw had an obligation to ensure the safety of its citizens irrespective of fears that interceptions over Ukrainian territory could embroil the Atlantic alliance in Russia’s war against Ukraine. “Membership in Nato does not trump each country’s responsibility for the protection of its own airspace — it’s our own constitutional duty,” Sikorsky said. “I’m personally of the view that, when hostile missiles are on course of entering our airspace, it would be legitimate self-defence [to strike them] because once they do cross into our airspace, the risk of debris injuring someone is significant.” Poland signed a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine earlier this summer in which the two countries undertook to examine “the feasibility of possible intercepting in Ukraine’s airspace missiles and UAVs fired in the direction of territory of Poland, following necessary procedures agreed by the states and organisations involved”. However, Jens Stoltenberg, the outgoing Nato secretary-general, rejected the proposal, saying it risked the alliance “becoming part of the conflict”. (Source: FT.com)

Sept 01.

01 Sept 24. Ukrainian forces have continued to lose ground to Russia in the country’s eastern Donetsk region, with Moscow determined not to have its plans to capture the territory undermined by Kyiv’s incursion into Kursk. The UK’s defence ministry said on X on Sunday that Russian forces were now within 10km of the logistics hub of Pokrovsk, though it added that their advance would probably slow as they approached more built-up areas. Pokrovsk serves as a thoroughfare to other major Ukrainian-controlled towns in the Donetsk region, such as Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka, as well as providing road links to central Ukraine. Its capture would undermine Ukrainian forces defence of the rest of the region. Russia also struck a civilian area of the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, north of the Donetsk region, on Sunday. The attack injured at least 41 people, according to its regional governor Oleh Synyehubov. After taking the well-fortified town of Novohrodivka, 12 miles south of Pokrovsk, last week, Russia now occupies at least one village in the surrounding area. Local Telegram groups have reported seeing soldiers in the town of Selydove, also 12 miles from Pokrovsk. Without naming Pokrovsk, Ukraine’s general Oleksandr Syrskyi said the situation in Russia’s main area of attack remained “difficult”. (Source: FT.com)

Aug 30.

30 Aug 24. Austin Meets With Ukrainian Counterpart. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III underscored the United States’ enduring commitment to supporting Ukraine as he met with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov at the Pentagon today.

Austin condemned Russia’s assault on Ukraine’s critical civilian infrastructure earlier this week and said the U.S. will continue to lead allies and partners in delivering key capabilities to help Ukraine defend itself.

“Let me be clear, it is never acceptable to target civilians, and Ukraine’s resilience will help it prevail over Putin’s aggression and atrocities,” he said.

Austin added that Ukrainian forces have continued to remain steadfast.

“They continue to fend off Kremlin’s assault and to inflict major losses on Russian invaders,” he said. “So, make no mistake, the United States will not waiver in our support for a free and sovereign Ukraine.”

The two leaders met today ahead of next week’s meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base, Germany. Nearly 50 allies and partners committed to the defense of Ukraine will gather there for the 24th iteration of the U.S.-led coalition.    Austin said the partners will push to meet Ukraine’s urgent battlefield needs, including air-defense capabilities to fend off Russian drone and missile attacks, at the meeting.  The efforts add to the United States’ continued push to ensure Ukraine has the capabilities needed to defend its territory and deter Russian aggression in the long-term.   Last week, the Defense Department announced its latest package of security assistance for Ukraine, valued at up to $125m.   The package included key weapons and ammunition to meet Ukraine’s most urgent needs, including air-defense capabilities.   The announcement marked the 64th provision of U.S. equipment from DOD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.

Umerov said today’s meeting would feature detailed discussions about the current situation on the battlefield and Ukraine’s “vision, objectives and plans.”

The Ukrainian leader thanked Austin for his continued leadership rallying the international coalition behind the defense of Ukraine.

“The leadership of the United States has set a powerful example to encourage other partners to stand by Ukraine at this critical time,” Umerov said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

30 Aug 24  President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has fired the commander of the Ukrainian air force five days after the crash of a US-made F-16 jet that killed one of Kyiv’s top fighter pilots. A decree announcing the dismissal of Lieutenant General Mykola Oleschuk was published on the presidential website on Friday evening. Zelenskyy did not provide a reason for firing Oleschuk, but in a video statement posted to Telegram he said it was “necessary at the command level [to] strengthen and protect people, protect personnel, protect all our soldiers”. Lt Gen Anatoliy Kryvonozhko had been appointed acting commander in his place, the general staff of the armed forces said in a statement. The removal of Oleschuk marks the third shuffle of a top military post in less than a year. Zelenskyy replaced his defence minister last September and his commander-in-chief of the armed forces in February. He replaced his chief of foreign intelligence and secretary of the national security and defence council in March. (Source: FT.com)

Aug 29.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• DONETSK: Russian forces continue to advance towards Pokrovsk at an increasingly rapid pace, seemingly bypassing defences as Ukrainian forces withdraw
• STRIKES: Russian forces launched one of their largest long-range missile and drone strike packages across Ukraine on 26 August, hitting critical energy infrastructure across 15 oblasts
• NUCLEAR: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned that there is a risk of a nuclear incident at Russia’s Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP), though we assess the likelihood remains low
• FORECAST: Ukraine has reported that Belarus is building up forces along its southern border; such a build-up is highly likely intended to divert Ukrainian resources away from key operations in Kursk and eastern Ukraine, rather than to pose a major threat to Kyiv
• BAKHMUT: Over the past week, Ukrainian forces have seemingly conducted numerous small-scale counter-attacks around Siversk; they have retaken several positions in recent days. Geolocated footage from 27 August indicates that Ukrainian forces have made some ground to the south-east of Siversk, pushing Russian forces back around the Sukha Plotva River and Ivano-Darivka, located around five miles (8km) to the south-east of Siversk. However, Russian forces are also attacking to the north-east of Siversk; on 21 August they were confirmed to have entered the outskirts of Bilhorivka – a village that has been at the frontline since 2022 and the fall of Lysychansk (Luhansk oblast).
• BAKHMUT: Also this week, Russian forces have been steadily grinding forwards in the Toretsk direction; they are now confirmed to be penetrating the outskirts of the town itself from both the east and the south. Russian forces now control the entirety of Zalizne and almost all of Pivnichne – both settlements are located within the outskirts of Toretsk.
• DONETSK: Russian forces are currently advancing at a relatively rapid rate towards Pokrovsk; they are confirmed to be taking numerous villages and fortified points relatively quickly. Geolocated footage from 26 and 27 August shows Russian forces advancing into Novohrodivka, located to the south-east of Pokrovsk. Russian forces have captured Kalynove (located to the south-east of Pokrovsk); they have also marginally advanced in Hrodivka, according to geolocated footage from 27 August. Footage posted on 28 August shows Russian gains in Central Memryk and to the south-east of Krasnyi Yar; both settlements are located to the south-east of Pokrovsk.
• DONETSK: Most significantly, Russian forces are seemingly bypassing numerous Ukrainian fixed defences that were built following the fall of Avdiivka in February. Satellite imagery has indicated the locations of these Ukrainian defensive lines. Russian forces have already managed to penetrate the first layer – including more built-up strongholds such as Novohrodivka. Additional satellite imagery indicates that the level of destruction in and around various villages and towns recently taken by Russian forces in this area is much lighter than expected.
• DONETSK: Satellite imagery indicates that the Ukrainians have likely withdrawn numerous times without contesting these positions due to their inability to hold them. This once again strongly indicates that Ukrainian forces are suffering from major personnel shortages – exacerbated by the demands of the Ukrainian Kursk offensive to the north. Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed on 28 August that Ukrainian forces had withdrawn from positions on the outskirts of Selydove, a town with a pre-war population of around 21,500 that sits around nine miles (15km) to the south of Pokrovsk. If accurate, this would again underscore the difficulties Ukrainian forces are experiencing in holding urban environments – which normally provide Ukrainian forces with a distinct defensive advantage.
• DONETSK: If Ukrainian forces are not maintaining a positional defence in these built-up areas, it remains unclear if they are steadily withdrawing to an established defensive line, or whether they are merely trying to minimise losses. It also remains unclear how long Russian forces can maintain their current offensive tempo, particularly if the Ukrainians heavily fortify and defend the approaches to Pokrovsk.
• DONETSK: Meanwhile, Russian forces have also made confirmed gains to the west and south-west of Donetsk city. Geolocated footage from 23 August shows Russian forces advancing south-west of Krasnohorivka (located to the west of Donetsk city) following a reinforced platoon-size mechanised assault. Additional footage from 27 August shows Russian forces planting a flag in western Kostyantynivka, located to the south-west of Donetsk city, indicating that the settlement is likely now under Russian control. Footage from 24 August indicates that Russian troops have reached a section of the O-0532 (T-0524) Kostyantynivka-Vuhledar highway to the south-east of Vodyane. On 28 August, the state-owned news agency TASS reported that Russian forces have disrupted two key ground lines of communication (GLOCs) into Vuhledar, located to the south-west of Donetsk city. TASS was likely referring to the T-05024 and T-0509 Vuhledar-Velyka Novosilka roads.
• KHARKIV: Geolocated footage from 23 August indicates that Russian forces advanced slightly in Starytsya, located to the south-west of Vovchansk (Kharkiv oblast). Additionally, Ukraine’s Operational Grouping of Forces Kharkiv reported on 29 August that Russian forces attempted to reinforce positions in central Vovchansk with tanks and armoured vehicles, but were reportedly repulsed and retreated after taking losses. While we cannot confirm these reports, Russian positions around the central aggregate plant likely remain precarious. Despite Ukrainian claims of an effective encirclement, it remains unclear just how isolated these forces are. Otherwise, both Russian and Ukrainian forces have continued to launch sporadic, small-scale attacks across the sector, though the overall tempo of operations remains lower – likely due to both sides focusing on the Kursk sector further north.
• KHARKIV: Meanwhile, the governor of Belgorod oblast (Russia), Vyacheslav Gladkov, reported on 27 August that Ukrainian forces attempted to cross the international border from Kharkiv oblast, but were repulsed. Attacks reportedly occurred near Grayvoron and Nekhoteevka, located 45 miles (72km) and 21 miles (34km) to the south-west and south of Belgorod city, respectively. We cannot confirm the size of the Ukrainian operation, but Russian sources indicate that it was likely small. Such operations are likely aimed at keeping the Russians off balance, as well as supporting the Kursk offensive by diverting Russian attention to other points along the international border.
• KURSK: On 27 August, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukraine’s Kursk offensive continues to advance slowly. Syrskyi claims that Ukrainian forces now control over 500 square miles (1,294 sq km) of Russian territory, as well as 100 settlements – a slight increase compared to the previously claimed 488 square miles (1,263 sq km) and 93 settlements on 20 August. Syrskyi also reported that 594 Russian personnel have been taken prisoner in Kursk oblast – which Kyiv has portrayed as a means of ‘topping up’ Ukraine’s ‘exchange fund’, a likely reference to future prisoner of war (POW) exchanges. Geolocated footage published over the last week has confirmed limited Ukrainian advances near Sudzha and Korenevo – the two largest towns in the Ukrainian area of operation. However, Russian sources also reported on 28 August that the tempo of Ukrainian attacks has decreased and that Ukrainian forces are now focused on digging in.
• KURSK: Notably, the New York Times reported on 23 August that unnamed US officials assess that Russia will likely need between 15 and 20 brigades (roughly 50,000 personnel) in order to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk. Such a deployment would represent a significant reallocation of resources. The size of Russia’s reserves remains unclear, though there are clear indications that units from lower priority frontlines (such as the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia axes) are being redeployed to Kursk. Syrskyi reported on 27 August that Russian forces have already redeployed over 30,000 troops from other sectors of the frontline; however, he noted that Russia’s Pokrovsk offensive in fact intensified during this period. Given our previous assessment that the Kremlin is likely setting information conditions to ‘normalise’ the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk, it remains likely that Moscow believes it could take months to repel Ukrainian forces from Russian territory. In the meantime, the Russian high command is likely to continue committing resources to its principal offensive effort in Donetsk, even at the expense of pushing the Ukrainians out of Kursk quickly.
• KURSK: On 24 and 27 August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky further explained some of the objectives of the Kursk offensive, describing it as a ‘spoiling’ move that has prevented a Russian attack against Sumy and/or Chernihiv oblasts (both Ukraine). This indicates that Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces were preparing a cross-border operation into Sumy this summer – something which we stated was a realistic possibility earlier this year as part of a Russian bid to stretch Ukraine’s lines thinner, akin to the Kharkiv offensive in May (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 13 June 2024). While we cannot confirm whether Russian forces had advanced their plans to attack Sumy oblast, it remains clear that Ukraine has instead seized the battlefield initiative in this direction and therefore nullified any Russian potential to launch ground operations into Sumy.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: In recent days, Russian forces have made confirmed gains along the Oskil-Kreminna line, specifically in the Kreminna and Kupiansk sectors. Geolocated footage posted on 28 August indicates Russian progress to the north-west of Pishchane (located to the south-east of Kupiansk). Additional footage from 23 August shows recent Russian advances within eastern Makiivka, located to the north-west of Kreminna.
• SOUTHERN: On 22 August, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces have reduced the intensify of operations across the southern axis (both in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia). We assess that this is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future given that Russian forces are redeploying from these lower-priority fronts to support operations in Kursk. However, sporadic offensive operations will likely continue.
• STRIKES: On 26 August, Russia attacked Ukraine with one of its largest-scale long-range strike packages to date; it involved around 200 drones and missiles. Russian forces launched three Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles, six Iskandr-M ballistic missiles (or North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles), 77 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 28 Kalibr cruise missiles, three Kh-22 cruise missiles, ten K-59/69 missiles and 109 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian forces intercepted one Kh-47M2 ballistic missile, one Iskandr-M ballistic missile, 99 cruise missiles and 99 drones.
• STRIKES: The package primarily targeted critical infrastructure in 15 Ukrainian oblasts, causing severe damage to the country’s energy grid. Following the barrage, Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s state-owned electricity operator, announced emergency power cuts that will likely persist in the coming weeks. One strike reportedly hit the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) dam in Vyshhorod, just north of the capital Kyiv. However, the local authorities reported that the infrastructure did not sustain significant damage. Similarly, officials confirmed earlier on 29 August that four nuclear units at the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant (Rivne oblast) have been disconnected from the grid, but that there is no risk to nuclear safety at the plant itself. The Ukrainian authorities have warned that the 2024-2025 winter heating season will likely be the most challenging to date.
• STRIKES: The 26 August strike package followed a limited number of missile attacks in recent months; this likely reflects Russia’s efforts to replenish its missile stockpiles. This pattern suggests that Russia is unable to conduct frequent large-scale strikes and will likely maintain a semi-regular tempo of intensive long-range attacks followed by prolonged periods of limited strikes, relying primarily on drones. However, even at this pace, such strikes will continue to inflict significant damage on Ukraine’s infrastructure as the country struggles with stretched air defence capabilities.
• STRIKES: Overnight on 26-27 August, Russian forces conducted a second consecutive large-scale attack, which involved 81 Shahed-136/131 drones and ten missiles. The missile mix included three Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles, one Iskandr-M ballistic missile, one Iskandr-K cruise missile and five Kh-101 cruise missiles. Ukrainian air defences intercepted 60 drones and all Kh-101 missiles.
• STRIKES: Notably, a Russian missile struck the Aurora Hotel in central Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk oblast), killing two individuals and injuring five others. Similarly, on 24 August, a Russian strike hit a hotel in Kramatorsk (Donetsk), killing a British security advisor for Reuters and injuring two journalists. Since the start of the invasion, Russia has conducted irregular strikes against hotels accommodating foreign journalists near the frontline. Such incidents include an attack against the Kharkiv Palace Hotel in Kharkiv (Kharkiv) in December 2023. While it remains unclear whether the latest attacks deliberately targeted hotels in Kryvyi Rih and Kramatorsk, we assess that security threats to foreign staff (particularly journalists) residing in hotels near the frontline will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. This does not, however, mean that Russian forces are likely to try to target hotels in Kyiv; this assessment is due to the higher density of air defences over the capital and the potential for a diplomatic incident in the event of the death of a foreign dignitary. This will nevertheless remain a credible risk throughout the conflict.
• STRIKES: Early on 29 August, Russia launched a large-scale strike package involving 74 Shahed-136/131 drones and three Kh-59/69 missiles. Ukraine’s air defences intercepted two missiles and 60 drones. According to Ukraine’s air force, 14 drones failed to reach their targets. The projectiles were destroyed over Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava and Sumy oblasts. The attack occurred on Ukraine’s Day of Remembrance of the Defenders, underscoring the elevated risk of Russian long-range strikes on symbolic anniversaries or state occasions.
• STRIKES: Meanwhile, the Russian MoD claimed that its forces intercepted Ukrainian drones over Belgorod, Bryansk, Oryol, Saratov and Tula oblasts (all Russia) on 26 August. A drone reportedly hit a building in Saratov City (Saratov). A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that the attack targeted the military airbase near Engels, located to the south-east of Saratov.
• STRIKES: On 28 August, a Ukrainian drone reportedly struck an oil depot in Russia’s Rostov oblast. The Russian authorities claimed that eight drones were shot down. However, an independent online news outlet cited an eyewitness who reported that the attack caused a fire at the Rosreserv oil and gas plant in Kamensk district (Rostov). Ukraine’s General Staff also reported that a Ukrainian drone hit an oil depot in Kirov oblast on 28 August. On the same day, local residents in Voronezh oblast, as quoted by an independent online media outlet, reported that drones struck an ammunition depot in Malaya Mezhenka (Voronezh).
• STRIKES: On 27 August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine had successfully test-fired its first domestically produced ballistic missiles. The Ukrainian Hrim-2 and Sapsan short range ballistic missiles (SRBM) remain in development; they are likely to have a range of at least 250-310 miles (400-500km). Zelensky also confirmed the existence of a ‘new class’ of weapon, namely the domestically produced Palianytsia missile. He drew attention to the first successful use of the new weapon in combat; he described it as a ‘missile-drone’. The Palianytsia missile-drone reportedly costs less than USD 1 m; the authorities will aim to decrease production costs by collaborating with private companies. Zelensky’s announcement highlights Kyiv’s efforts to develop its own long-range weapons; this comes as the US remains reluctant to authorise strikes against Russia using Western arms (see AID below). Ukraine has already significantly expanded its domestic drone production, which has been crucial for targeting oil infrastructure and aviation assets based within Russia.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• NUCLEAR: The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, visited Russia’s Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP) on 27 August, stating that there was a risk of a nuclear accident and that the situation at the plant was ‘serious’. Russian officials claim that Ukrainian forces have been attempting to attack the plant with drones – one official even stated that Ukraine is preparing a ‘dirty bomb’ attack. Following the Ukrainian Kursk offensive, Ukrainian forces are currently at least 25 miles (39km) south of the KNPP, though the bulk of these forces are likely further away. Russian sources claim that various drones have attacked the plant in recent weeks, and while Grossi stated that any attack against the plant is unacceptable, he did not indicate the origin of any given drone. As a result of the Kursk offensive, we previously predicted that Russian officials would lean on nuclear threats and accuse Ukraine of destabilising nuclear safety in a bid to deter Western support and distract attention away from Russian military challenges.
• NUCLEAR: Grossi confirmed that the KNPP remains extremely fragile because its reactor does not have a containment building to protect it – unlike Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). This means that the KNPP remains more vulnerable to an attack. Grossi also confirmed that the plant is currently very close to normal operating conditions – though this actually makes the plant even more vulnerable to an incident, should its safety become compromised. The six reactors at the ZNPP, by contrast, have remained in either cold or hot shutdown since the opening phases of the invasion, severely limiting the amount of radioactive Iodine-131 produced by the plant (which would be released in the event of an accident). While the KNPP remains more vulnerable to external attacks than the ZNPP, it is still highly unlikely that a catastrophic nuclear incident will take place. Neither side would want to risk such a catastrophe that would likely affect both countries. Drone attacks and false flag dirty bombs remain possible, particularly if Ukrainian forces advance further towards the KNPP; in the meantime, we will continue to monitor the situation at the plant.
• AID: On 27 August, the Financial Times (FT) and The Telegraph reported that the US is currently withholding permission for Ukraine to use UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to strike targets inside Russia. The UK government is reportedly in favour of allowing Ukraine to use Storm Shadow inside Russia, with an FT source maintaining that a UK request was sent to France and the US earlier this summer. Paris publicly stated in May that Ukraine should be allowed to hit Russian military targets inside Russia. However, a Telegraph source reported that the missiles employ a classified US system that facilitates successful targeting in areas where Russia is jamming GPS, and that this system requires US permission to use.
• AID: While we cannot confirm the above reports, the UK has consistently been the nation most willing to expand Ukraine’s offensive military capabilities, while the US remains more cautious. The UK was the first nation to pledge Western main battle tanks to Ukraine, the first to support Kyiv’s acquisition of F-16 fighter jets and the first to provide long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine. However, the Biden administration remains more cautious, with sources claiming that Washington DC is concerned over the potential for such strikes inside Russia to escalate the conflict.
• AID: Politico reported on 23 August that an unnamed US official expressed concern that the use of Storm Shadow or ATACMS missiles inside Russia might not be as effective because Russia has already moved most of its aviation assets out of their range. Notably, on 27 August, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Russia had moved 90% of its aviation assets to air bases outside the ATACMS striking range. Nevertheless, there are numerous other military targets that would remain in range. It is unclear whether the US will shift its stance in the coming months, though previous debates around other weapons systems have resulted in (eventual) shifts in policy. European leaders are increasingly in favour of the initiative; on 26 August, the EU’s chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, called for the lifting of restrictions on the use of Western weapons inside Russia.
• NEGOTIATIONS: On 28 August, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the possibility of negotiations with Ukraine has ‘become irrelevant’ following Ukraine’s Kursk offensive. However, we continue to assess that Moscow did not have any genuine interest in pursuing peace talks even before the Kursk operation, and is likely using the offensive as a means of blaming Ukraine for the lack of talks in the run-up to the all-important US election in November. While pressure will likely build on both parties to enter some sort of talks in 2025, we assess that neither side is at present willing to entertain concessions that could seriously lead to an end to the war.

FORECAST

BELARUS: On 25 August, Ukrainian officials reported that Belarus has been building up forces in Gomel oblast (Belarus), which neighbours Ukraine’s northern Kyiv and Chernihiv oblasts; however, we assess that the threat of a major Belarusian operation into Ukraine remains very low. Ukraine’s foreign ministry claimed that Belarus has deployed an unspecified but significant number of military personnel – likely including elements of former Wagner Group forces – to its southern border under the pretext of a military exercise. The forces are reportedly operating near Ukraine’s Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which sits close to the border. However, Ukraine’s State Border Service reported on 29 August that they have seen no unusual activity or build-up directly along the border.

Any potential Belarusian build-up is highly likely aimed at forcing Ukraine to screen the border and divert forces and resources away from other critical frontlines – namely the Kursk offensive and defensive operations in Donetsk. Nevertheless, unconfirmed footage shows tanks and other vehicles assembling along the border and sporting a ‘B’ symbol – a potential signifier akin to the ‘Z’ symbol designed to designate task forces and groupings of troops. While this could indicate preparations for military operations, it is more likely a form of maskirovka (military deception) designed to convince Ukrainian commanders of the serious threat posed by the grouping, consequently forcing them to redeploy forces to screen the border.

It remains highly unlikely that Belarus has the intention or the capability to invade northern Ukraine for various political and military reasons. Militarily, Minsk is likely operating well below its paper strength, despite former Wagner Group forces likely augmenting training and military preparations over the last year. Politically, the regime of Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka is set to face a significant test of its stability during a presidential election in February 2025. The last presidential election in 2020 resulted in unprecedented anti-government unrest, which led to a harsh crackdown.

With Belarus’ principal ally Russia embroiled in Ukraine, it is highly unlikely to be in the Lukashenka regime’s interests to intervene directly in the war, as it relies heavily on its internal security forces to maintain its grip on power ahead of the election. While these reasons make a Belarusian intervention unlikely (together with the lack of a significant Russian component that would augment Belarus’ offensive capabilities), Moscow could possibly still coerce Minsk to increase pressure on Ukraine’s northern border in a bid to aid Russian forces defending Kursk. It remains unclear how much leverage Moscow has in this regard, given Lukashenka has historically sought to limit Russian influence over Belarus’ sovereignty. As we have previously assessed, lower-level ‘provocations’, such as drone incursions, military exercises, false-flag attacks or false intelligence reports triggering invasion scares, remain possible. For further analysis around triggers for a Belarusian intervention, see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 30 June 2022.

Aug 28.

• Ukraine: Postponement of debt payments underscores worsening budgetary situation. On 27 August, Reuters reported that Ukraine will temporarily suspend payments on GDP warrants starting from 31 May 2025. In August 2022, Kyiv reached an agreement with holders of its GDP warrants to defer payments by 14 months and to extend the payment instalments until 2039. In July, the government stated that it would fulfil its payments. However, the latest decision likely underscores the country’s growing budgetary difficulties. Meanwhile, Ukraine will also suspend loan payments to a specific private financial firm from 3 September, as well as loan payments on government-guaranteed bonds of the state-owned firm Ukrenergo from 9 November. These reports come as the country has yet to finalise a debt restructuring deal with a group of private bondholders. As such, we assess that the government’s latest decisions likely reflect efforts to prioritise the financing of its war effort against Russia by postponing debt payments. These decisions also highlight the severe deterioration of the country’s finances, which recently led to the credit agency Fitch downgrading Ukraine’s credit rating from ‘C’ to ‘restricted default’.

Aug 27.

• Ukraine: Russian long-range strikes will further undermine energy security. On 26 August, Russia attacked Ukraine with one of the largest-scale long-range strikes to date, involving 200 drones and missiles. The attack primarily targeted critical infrastructure in 15 Ukrainian oblasts, causing severe damage to the country’s energy grid. Following the barrage, Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s state-owned electricity operator, announced emergency power cuts which will likely persist in the coming weeks. Similar to large-scale attacks at the start of the year, the strike included a large variety of missiles, including cruise and ballistic missiles and around 99 Shahed-136/131 drones. Overnight on 26-27 August, Russian forces conducted a second consecutive large-scale attack, including 81 drones and ten missiles. A Russian missile struck a hotel in Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk oblast) killing two individuals and injuring five people. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Moscow has continued efforts to degrade Ukraine’s energy security. The Ukrainian authorities have warned that the 2024-2025 winter heating season will likely be the most challenging to date. We assess that Russia’s ongoing long-range strike campaign will continue to pose elevated risks for Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and civilian population; air defences remain strongest over the capital Kyiv. (Source: Sibylline)

29 Aug 24. Austin Praises Poland’s Commitment to Ukraine’s Security. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III commended Poland for its continued leadership among key allies committed to Ukraine’s defense as he met today with Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz at the Pentagon.

Austin noted Poland’s continued contribution to the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group as the lead nation overseeing the armor and maneuver capability coalition aimed at supporting Ukraine’s short- and long-term security requirements.

“Poland has always understood that Putin’s war of choice in Ukraine threatens our shared security,” Austin said. “The United States and Poland, along with our allies and partners, stand together for a free and sovereign Ukraine.”

He added that Poland’s contribution of vital logistics support and security assistance have been key to Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russia’s ongoing assault.

Austin also commended Poland’s efforts to modernize and improve its military forces.

The two leaders spoke after Poland’s first F-35A Lightning II rolled off the production line during a ceremony at the manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas, yesterday.

“This is a big step toward Poland fielding the most lethal and survivable fighter aircraft on earth,” Austin said. “The F-35 will improve your defensive capabilities, increase interoperability with our allies and help deter conflict.”

Kosiniak-Kamysz said the milestone marked a “historic and meaningful moment for building the credible defense capabilities of the Polish Air Forces and for increasing our interoperability.”

Both leaders also noted Poland’s recent acquisition of nearly 100 AH-64E Apache helicopters, making Poland the second-largest operator of the attack helicopter outside of the U.S.

“It is another meaningful step in tightening our bilateral relations and enhancing military industrial cooperation,” the Polish defense leader said of the decision.

Kosiniak-Kamysz noted that the U.S.-Poland relationship continues to reach new heights as the two countries work together to address growing security challenges.

“In a rapidly changing world, security challenges have become more contested, complex and interconnected,” he said, adding that in addition to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Poland also faces the growing threat of hostile actions in neighboring Belarus.

“No single country can face this threat alone,” he said. “And we truly appreciate the firm commitment to defending NATO.”  (Source: U.S. DoD)

29 Aug 24. Ukraine F-16 crashes, pilot dies repelling Russian strike. One of Ukraine’s F-16 fighter jets crashed while repelling a major Russian attack on Monday, Kyiv’s military said, the first such loss reported since the long-awaited arrival of the U.S.-made planes this month.

The jet came down and its pilot died while it was approaching a Russian target, the Ukrainian General Staff said on Thursday on Facebook.

The F-16s had “demonstrated high efficiency” and downed four Russian cruise missiles, it added. Ukraine said Russia launched more than 200 missiles and drones that day targeting the energy sector.

“Connection with one of the aircraft was lost while it was approaching the next target. As it turned out later, the plane crashed, and the pilot died,” the statement said.

A U.S. defense official told Reuters that Monday’s crash did not appear to be the result of Russian fire, and possible causes from pilot error to mechanical failure were still being investigated.

Ukraine has not given details about the size of its new fleet, though the loss left a significant dent. The Times of London has cited a source as saying Ukraine had six of the jets. (Source: Reuters)

29 Aug 24. Ukraine will present the Biden administration with a list of targets it wants to strike inside Russia in another bid to push the US to lift restrictions on the use of American weapons against Moscow.

Two senior Ukrainian officials – the head of the president’s office and defence minister – will travel to Washington on Friday to “provide a list of priority targets, without which it will be difficult to change the course of the war in Ukraine’s favour,” a Ukrainian MP told CNN.

It comes after Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday that lifting restrictions on using US weapons would end the war sooner “for Ukraine and the world as a whole”.

Western weapons have been used in Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, including British Challenger 2 tanks and US-made Himars, but there are fears that allowing Kyiv to use long-range missiles could provoke a wider war with Russia.

On Tuesday, The Telegraph reported that the UK backs the use of Storm Shadow missiles by Ukraine in Russia but will not publicly call for the move amid concern it would provoke a row with the US.

The use of the weapons, which can avoid enemy radar and hit precise targets up to 190 miles away, requires permission from Washington given their reliance on classified US systems. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

28 Aug 24. US maintains refusal of long-range strike use inside Russia. The US DoD Press Secretary reiterates the government’s view that deep strike capability inside Russia is a no-go. The US Department of Defense (DoD) press secretary, Major General Pat Ryder, confirmed that the government will not provide long-range strike capabilities to Ukraine for use against targets deep inside Russia.

“Our policies haven’t changed,” he stated in a media briefing yesterday (27 August).

“You’ve heard us say that the Ukrainians can use US security assistance to defend themselves from cross-border attacks, in other words counterfire. But as it relates to long-range strike, deep strikes into Russia, our policy has not changed.”

Ryder’s comments shut down mounting pressure from the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy earlier this week in which the head of state urged Western backers – including the US, the war-torn nation’s largest supplier of military assistance – to provide long-range weapons.

One reason Zelenskyy gave for Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, now in its fourth week, is to compensate for its lack of deep strike capabilities. To date, Ukrainian forces have claimed more than a thousand square kilometres of Russian territory while capturing nearly 600 Russian troops in the process.

To date, the US has provided numerous missile defence systems from artillery, bomb launchers, rockets and mortars. The DoD have even provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) – with an extended range of up to 300 kilometres – while prohibiting their use inside Russia.

In addition, Ukraine was also gifted long-range British and French Storm Shadow/SCALP missile systems provided last year, which have a range of 250 kilometres. However, more must be done in this area to secure Ukrainian territory from Russian strikes.

Nevertheless, US refusal has not deterred the country from obtaining the coveted weapon system for deep strike use. Zelenskyy revealed this week that Ukraine’s indigenous defence industry has successfully produced its own home-built ballistic missile, named the ‘Palianytsia’ – a long-range missile-drone hybrid system.

“It shows that if the West will not supply deep-strike weapons, Ukraine will develop their own”, says Wilson Jones, defence analyst at GlobalData. “Although these are usually more expensive to design and build, Ukraine can make that work if the rest of their defence platforms are being supplied from abroad”. (Source: army-technology.com)

28 Aug 24. Ukraine has secured relief on more than $20bn of debt from private international bondholders, boosting Kyiv’s race to finance an intensifying war effort against Russia. Almost all of Ukraine’s bondholders voted for a deal that will write down the face value of their debt by more than a third and free up $11bn for the country’s finances over the next three years through reduced interest payments, Ukraine’s finance ministry said on Wednesday. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government has negotiated one of the fastest and biggest sovereign debt workouts in modern history over the past four months, even as Kyiv pulled off an audacious counter-invasion of Russia and pushed western backers for more military aid. Bondholders had granted a two-year suspension of payments after Russia’s invasion in February 2022. But Ukraine needed deeper relief on the bonds in order to keep IMF bailout loans flowing and to eventually restore access to private financing. Ukraine’s budget deficit has surged this year to finance its military operations as Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. “This is an important step on Ukraine’s path to restoring long-term economic stability and will enable our swifter re-entry to international markets once the security situation improves,” Sergii Marchenko, the Ukrainian finance minister, said on Wednesday. The restructuring will reduce economic value of the debt by about 60 per cent, with Ukraine resuming interest payments at a much reduced level after the suspension, which officially expired this month. This will include bondholders directly writing off 37 per cent of their claim.  The “haircut” could lessen to 25 per cent if Ukraine’s GDP beats IMF targets, set for 2028. (Source: FT.com)

28 Aug 24. NATO stresses commitment to strengthen Ukraine’s defences. members reaffirmed their commitment to further strengthen Ukraine’s defences at a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council, which brings together officials from Ukraine and the Western military alliance, NATO said on Wednesday.

“Ukraine continues to intercept Russian missiles on a daily basis, saving countless lives. But Ukraine’s ability to maintain their defences requires increased supply and more support,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement.

“In the wake of the latest Russian assault, Allies today reaffirmed they are stepping up their military aid to Ukraine. We must continue to provide Ukraine with the equipment and munitions it needs to defend itself against Russia’s invasion. This is vital for Ukraine’s ability to stay in the fight.” (Source: Reuters)

27 Aug 24. Ukraine calls on European air defence after Russian strikes.

Such a collective air defence partnership would, Zelenskyy said, be modelled on the efforts taking place in the Middle East.

The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, called on European allies to form a collective air defence effort in the aftermath of the heaviest Russian aerial strike against Ukrainian territory yesterday, 26 August 2024.

Such an air defence partnership would, he implied, be modelled on the efforts taking place in the Middle East, where European nations are supporting Israel in its interception of missile salvos.

In an address to the nation and the world later that day, the head of state made the case that:

“In our various regions of Ukraine, we could do much more to protect lives if the aviation of our European neighbours worked alongside our F-16s and alongside our air defence. If such unity has worked so obviously well in the Middle East, it should work in Europe as well. Life has the same value everywhere.”

Russia’s largest aerial strike

The latest attack is considered the largest combined missile and drone barrage targetting Ukranine’s critical infrastructure to date.

According to open-source intelligence from the Institiute for the Study of War, the Ukrainian Air Force Commander, Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk, reported that Russian forces launched a range of different systems including:

• Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal” air-launched – arguably ‘hypersonic’ – missiles;
• Iskander-M or North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles;
• Kh-101 cruise missiles from Tu-95MS strategic bombers;
• Kalibr cruise missiles from both surface and underwater missile carrier in the eastern Black Sea;
• Kh-22 cruise missiles;
• Kh-59/69 cruise missiles from an unspecified number of Su-57 fighter aircraft and Su-34 fighter-bombers;
• and 109 Iranian-made Shahed uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Altogether, the strikes targetted more than half of Ukraine’s regions, that is 15 out of 24 Ukrainian oblasts. These systems were largely targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure and causing significant damage to Ukraine’s energy grid.

After the attack, Zelenskyy assured the nation that “wherever there is a power outage, restoration is already underway. Our repair crews will work around the clock. We will restore electricity.”

Applying Middle East policy to Ukraine

Zelenskyy’s argument for European aerial assistance, while compelling, may not apply to Ukraine in the eyes of some European countries.

In April, France and the UK joined the US and Jordan in responding to the Iranian missile and drone salvos fired at Israeli territory. As a potential conflict threatens to spill over into Lebanon, north of Israel, the US recently extended its ballistic missile defence support on land, sea and in the air.

Prior to this, on 19 February, a European Union (EU) military mission – Operation Aspides – was set up and is still underway in the Red Sea to uphold freedom of navigation, intercepting Iranian-backed Houthi strikes launched from Yemen. Lately, the force reported at least five fires on the main deck of a Greek-flagged oil tanker in the Red Sea on 26 August. (Source: army-technology.com)

27 Aug 24. Ukraine’s Zelenskyy to present plan to Biden to end war with Russia.

Zelenskyy to show Biden plan to end war with Russia

• Summary
• Zelenskyy plans to present peace plan to Biden and U.S. presidential candidates
• Kyiv’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region is part of the plan
• Zelenskyy dismisses compromises with Putin, calls dialogue meaningless
• Sees follow-up international summit for peace as forum for talks

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday that the war with Russia would eventually end in dialogue, but that Kyiv had to be in a strong position and that he would present a plan to U.S. President Joe Biden and his two potential successors.

The Ukrainian leader, addressing a news conference, said Kyiv’s three-week-old incursion into Russia’s Kursk region was part of that plan, but that it also comprised other steps on the economic and diplomatic fronts.

“The main point of this plan is to force Russia to end the war. And I want that very much – (that it would be) fair for Ukraine,” he told reporters in Kyiv of the war launched by Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

He did not elaborate further on the next steps, but said he would also discuss the plan with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and probably also with Republican Donald Trump, the two nominees for the U.S. presidential election

Zelenskiy said he hoped to go to the United States in September to attend the U.N. General Assembly in New York and that he was preparing to meet Biden.

His remarks indicated that he sees the main potential forum for talks as a follow-up international summit on peace, at which Ukraine has said it wants Russia to have representatives.

The first summit to advance Kyiv’s vision of peace, held in Switzerland in June, pointedly excluded Russia, while attracting scores of delegations, but not from China, the world’s second largest economy, despite Kyiv’s push to win over the global south. (Source: Reuters)

27 Aug 24. US overcome challenges to equip Ukraine F-16s with new EW.The 68th Electronic Warfare Squadron’s approach enhances Ukraine’s capabilities against Russian electromagnetic threats. The US Air Force’s 68th Electronic Warfare Squadron (EWS) has reprogrammed the electronic warfare (EW) systems of F-16 jets being transferred from Denmark to the Netherlands – this effort is part of a larger initiative to bolster Ukraine’s defences against Russia’s electromagnetic warfare capabilities.

Whilst at its core a humanitarian crisis, the Russian invasion of Ukraine risks adding materially to existing global economic and supply challenges. We are likely heading into a period in which geopolitics will become a regular part of boardroom…

Norway and the Netherlands are bolstering Ukraine’s air defence capabilities amid the ongoing conflict with Russia. Norway will contribute six surplus F-16 aircraft to Ukraine by the end of 2024. Meanwhile, the Netherlands is stepping up its support by providing 24 F-16s and an additional €300m ($336m) for ammunition.

Reprogramming an unfamiliar EW system under deadlines to ensure the jets were combat-ready upon their delivery to Ukraine was daunting. The squadron’s chief engineer highlighted the gravity of the mission, stating, “Most reprogramming centres would have said ‘no way’ when approaching this challenge; it’s uncharted policy.”

To overcome these challenges, the 68th EWS broke away from conventional procedures, sending its team members overseas to work directly in partner-nation laboratories in Denmark and Norway. This hands-on, collaborative approach was key to developing and testing system updates.

By working alongside their Danish and Norwegian counterparts, the 68th EWS managed to refine and improve the reprogramming processes.

As Ukraine received its first F-16 fighter jets from European allies, Russia intensified its attacks on Ukrainian airfields, targeting sites like Starokostiantyniv that are expected to house these new jets.

The collaboration has enhanced the Ukrainian Air Force’s immediate capabilities and strengthened the partnership between the US and its Nato allies.

Moreover, the operation has fast-tracked Ukraine’s integration into a global coalition of nations supported by the 68th EWS. The data from the Ukrainian battlefield will now be used to further refine EW capabilities, benefiting all 31 countries within the 68th EWS’s portfolio.

The director emphasised the impact of these efforts, noting that while one F-16 with an upgraded EW system might not single-handedly change the course of the conflict, it can provide crucial moments, allowing Ukrainian forces to achieve objectives with strategic outcomes.

(Source: airforce-technology.com)

26 Aug 24. Ukraine counts on missile-drone hybrid to strike deep into Russia. Ukraine says it has a new long-range weapon to strike deep into Russia without asking permission from allies — a homegrown combination of missile and drone that the defense minister vowed Monday would provide “answers” to a wave of Russian bombings.

The “Palianytsia” was created due to urgent necessity, Ukrainian officials said, as Russia has dominated the skies since the outbreak of the war in February 2022 and Ukraine’s Western allies have placed conditions on use of their long-range missiles in Russia. On Monday, a wave of Russian missiles and drones targeted Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure in the largest such attack in weeks.

“Defenders of life should have no restrictions on weapons, as long as Russia uses all kinds of its own weapons,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a Telegram message following the attacks.

Zelenskyy confirmed Saturday the existence of the Palianytsia, named after a type of Ukrainian bread and a word so notoriously difficult to pronounce correctly that it was used to unmask suspected spies early in the war. The Ukrainian president called it “a new class” of weapon.

Saturday, which marked Ukraine’s 33rd anniversary of independence from the former Soviet Union, also saw the first use of the new weapon, targeting a Russian military installation in the occupied territory, officials said without providing details.

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov promised Monday the weapon would be used again soon in response to the overnight attack on Ukraine.

“Ukraine is preparing its response. Weapons of its own production,” he wrote on his Facebook page. “This once again proves that for victory, we need long-range capabilities and the lifting of restrictions on strikes on the enemy’s military facilities.”

A Ukrainian military video hinted that its range is up to 430 miles — on par with the U.S.-supplied ATACMS. It showed a map with various airfields, including Russia’s Savasleyka air base, which lies within that range, adding that the Palianytsia can reach at least 20 Russian airfields.

The United States and other Western allies provide long-range weapons to Ukraine but restrict it from launching them deep into Russia for fear of escalating the war. Ukraine can target the border regions but wants to go deeper to attack Russia’s military infrastructure.

The Institute for the Study of War said Russia was “leveraging sanctuary space in deep rear areas.” It estimated at least 250 militarily significant targets in Russia were within range of the ATACMS missiles, but current restrictions allow Ukraine to strike only 20 of them.

Ukraine’s technology minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, told The Associated Press in his first interview about the new weapon that the next step was to scale up the production.

“I think this will be a game changer because we will be able to strike where Russia doesn’t expect it today,” he said.

Fedorov declined to elaborate on the range or current supply, citing security reasons, but said that he has been involved in the projects for developing domestic missiles since the end of 2022.

Ukraine’s battlefields have become a deadly testing lab for new weapons and new adaptations of old ones. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces have rigged off-the-shelf equipment with explosives and military-grade infrared cameras; Russia has retrofitted Soviet-era unguided bombs with GPS harnesses; and Ukraine’s underwater drones have crippled Russia’s Black Sea fleet.

But the new weapon has been a long-term goal of Ukraine.

One of the specialists involved in the long-range missile project said it was “a completely new development, from scratch” that began about 18 months ago.

“This is not an extension of an old Soviet project,” said the specialist, speaking on condition of anonymity to safeguard the project’s secrecy. The missile has a solid-fuel booster that accelerates it, followed by a jet engine, the specialist said.

Ukraine says its inability to fight back against Russian long-range weapons has deadly consequences. Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi said Russia has launched 9,627 long-range missiles and Ukraine’s defense shot down only a quarter of them, and that more than half the Russian targets were civilian.

The specialist and Fedorov said each missile costs less than $1 m, and the military is turning to the private sector to bring down production costs further. “The private market generates solutions incredibly quickly,” the minister said.

As of this year, private companies have become the main suppliers of drones for the Ukrainian army, including those now striking inside Russia and the underwater ones that have repeatedly struck the Russian Black Sea fleet, said Fedorov.

“All types of missiles will be available in Ukraine,” he said. “If we have our own weapons like this, we will feel more independent and confident.”

Fedorov added that he believed Russia’s vast size could also be its vulnerability.

“It’s impossible to produce enough air defense systems to protect such a large territory,” he said. “For us, this opens up the possibility of operating deep behind enemy lines.” (Source: Defense News)

27 Aug 24. UN watchdog says Russian nuclear plant ‘extremely exposed’ if attacked.

IAEA chief warns of nuclear accident risk at Russia’s Kursk plant

• Summary
• IAEA director general visits Kursk nuclear plant
• Grossi says reactor design lacks protective dome
• Nuclear material vulnerable to drone or missile strike
• Nuclear plants must ‘never, ever’ be attacked, he says

A nuclear plant in western Russia, where fighting is raging between Russian and Ukrainian forces, is especially vulnerable to a serious accident because it lacks a protective dome that could shield it from missiles, drones or artillery, the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Tuesday.

Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, spoke after visiting the plant in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces pierced the border in a lightning incursion on Aug. 6 and Russia is still battling to eject them.

Grossi told reporters that the RBMK-type facility – the same model as the Chornobyl plant in Ukraine that witnessed the world’s worst civilian nuclear disaster in 1986 – lacks the containment dome and protective structure that is typical of modern nuclear power stations.

“This means that the core of the reactor containing nuclear material is protected just by a normal roof. This makes it extremely exposed and fragile, for example, to an artillery impact or a drone or a missile,” he said.

“So this is why we believe that a nuclear power plant of this type, so close to a point of contact or a military front, is an extremely serious fact that we take very seriously.”

Grossi said it would be an exaggeration to equate Kursk with Chornobyl, where an accident caused a deadly explosion that spewed a radioactive cloud over parts of eastern Europe.

“But this is the same type of reactor and there is no specific protection. And this is very, very important. If there is an impact on the core, the material is there and the consequences could be extremely serious.” (Source: Reuters)

27 Aug 24. Zelenskyy Presents Ukrainian Rocket Drone. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy unveiled a newly developed weapon for the embattled nation’s armed forces, stating that the Palyanyitsya drone missile is to be integrated into Ukraine’s missile programme on Saturday.

The development of the Ukrainian long-range drone missile Palianytsia was completed in eighteen months, with several dozen Russian military air bases falling within its range.

[Palianytsia, a type of bread, is a Ukrainian word that Russians find difficult to pronounce properly. Since the full-scale Russian invasion started, Ukrainians have used the word as a means to identify Russian military or saboteurs]

Quote:

“In the two and a half years of full-scale war, Russia has launched about 10,000 missiles of various types and more than 33,000 glide bombs at Ukraine. Stopping attacks on our cities can be achieved by targeting the carriers of this weaponry – Russian aircraft stationed at military airfields.

Yesterday, the first successful combat use of our new weapon – the Ukrainian long-range rocket drone Palianytsia – took place. It was designed domestically to destroy the enemy’s offensive potential.

The number of rocket drones produced will grow just like our long-range strike drones production did, the efficiency of which we see almost daily.”

Details:

The video posted by the president notes that one of the most effective ways to counter Russian missile attacks is to target the carriers of these weapons – Russian military airfields.

However, Ukraine’s allies have not authorised the use of the supplied weapons for this purpose.

Therefore, Ukraine has introduced a grant programme for private missile projects, invested in state-owned design bureaus, and deregulated the industry to stimulate innovation. The Palianytsia missile is the first outcome of these efforts.

Details about the Palianytsia missile are largely classified. This drone missile can reach approximately two dozen Russian military airfields and was developed in just one and a half years. It is launched from a ground-based platform and features a turbojet engine. The cost of the Palianytsia is significantly lower than that of similar missiles, with ongoing efforts to further reduce costs and increase production.

The existence of a long-range jet-propelled kamikaze drone had been rumored for some time after images of the debris ofa jet powered flying wing drone was shared on Russian social media in June. The military technology expert HI Sutton,writing on the Covert Shores website, produced his assessment of the make-up and capability of that drone:

What’s in a name?

The choice of Palyanytsya as the name for the UAV showsthat someone has a sense of humor. It is the name of a traditional, round, hearth-baked wheat bread often eaten for breakfast or as an afternoon snack.

It is also a word that many Russians struggle to pronounce correctly and a way to identify Russian saboteurs. It was also said to have become a frequent password at roadblocks and check points.

During World War II, legend has it that the Dutch resistance could identify German spies because they were unable topronounce the name of the town of Scheveningen.

Russians may still not be able to pronounce it, but Ukrainians hope they will soon understand Palyanytsya’s new meaning with full force.

Top Photo: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a joint news conference with Polish President Andrzej Duda and Lithuanian Prime (Source: UAS VISION/UKRAINSKA PRAVDA; Kyiv Post; yahoo!news)

27 Aug 24. Russia tries to jolt its sluggish Su-57 warplane production. A production plant key to Russia’s fifth-generation Su-57 aircraft program has opened new facilities aimed at scaling up the sluggish delivery tempo, state-owned aerospace conglomerate United Aircraft Corporation announced.

Officials have put into operation new development facilities related to the fuel system and started construction of a hangar for avionics testing at the Komsomolsk-on-Amur factory in eastern Russia, according to the company.

Su-57 aircraft are limited in their participation in the invasion of Ukraine, carrying out strikes from Russia’s territory. Following the country’s full-scale invasion of neighbor Ukraine, state arms makers Rostec, UAC and the aircraft plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur are under numerous sanctions from the United States, the European Union, Ukraine, Great Britain, Switzerland and other countries, forcing them to look for electronic equipment and components in Asia or import them illegally.

Russia only has a small number of Su-57 aircraft. The contract for the production of 76 planes by the end of 2027 was signed by the Defense Ministry at the Army Forum in June 2019, with Komsomolsk-on-Amur specified as the main production site.

However, the plant was quickly deemed too small, forcing officials to spend time expanding production space, which entailed changing and adding new equipment.

As a result, according to independent aviation expert Michael Jerdev, to date, the Air Force has received no more than one-third of what was planned under the contract. There was a transfer of 10 aircraft to the Air Force in 2022, and 11 copies in 2023. Critical bottlenecks are the supply of avionics and a new engine, the so-called Izdelie 30, says Jerdev, pointing to Western sanctions.

Until recently, Su-57 aircraft were equipped with the previous-generation AL-41F-1 engine. In December 2023, Rostec announced that some of the aircraft delivered in 2024 would boast the successor engine.

According to Pavel Luzin, an expert at the Washington-based think tank CEPA, the engines of the so-called second stage for the Su-57 and Su-75 Checkmate have been in development since the early 2010s, but they are unlikely to enter mass production before 2025. The production capabilities of the Ufa Engine Industrial Association are limited, which likely will mean the company must stop making older engines to focus on the new one.

The Russian Defense Ministry announced that it plans to receive 22 Su-57 aircraft in 2024. But by August 2024, there was no information about the status of any deliveries yet.

Ukrainian forces are thought to have damaged one or two Su-57 aircraft in June 2024 with a strike on the Akhtubinsk airfield in southern Russia, the Kyiv Independent reported at the time, citing Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman Andrei Yusov. (Source: Defense News)

27 Aug 24. Ukraine’s F-16 jets intercept Russian missiles in apparent first. Russia fired dozens of missiles and drones across Ukraine for a second day on Tuesday, including some that Ukraine’s president said were shot down by Western-supplied F-16 fighter jets before they reached their targets.

The onslaught killed at least five people, destroying a hotel, homes and residential buildings as well as critical infrastructure in multiple Ukrainian regions. Kyiv and other cities had power outages in sweltering heat.

As it often does in statements after Russian bombing raids, Ukraine’s military listed the Russian regions and occupied territories where the weapons were launched. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other top officials have called repeatedly for the U.S. to lift restrictions and let Ukraine strike deep inside Russia to hit military infrastructure responsible for the war.

″(The allies) try not to speak with me about it. But I keep raising this topic. Generally, that’s it. The Olympics are over, but the ping-pong continues,” Zelenskyy said.

In comments addressing the apparent first use by Ukraine of the F-16s to shoot down a missile, Zelenskyy thanked Ukraine’s supporters for them but said there were too few, and too few pilots trained to fly them.

Among the Russian regions listed as a source of Tuesday’s attack was Kursk, where the head of the Ukrainian army said his troops have gained control of nearly 500 square miles since their surprise incursion three weeks ago. That’s roughly the size of Los Angeles.

Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi also said Ukraine has captured 594 Russian prisoners in the operation, which he said was intended to draw Russia’s military away from the fighting in Ukraine. His claims could not be independently confirmed.

The Kursk operation, the largest incursion into Russia since World War II, has forced some 130,000 residents to evacuate their homes. Russia has sent reinforcements into the region, but it was not clear to what extent the movements might be weakening Russia’s positions in Ukrainian territory.

Fighting in the region has raised concerns about dangers to the Kursk nuclear power plant, said International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi, who visited it Tuesday. He said in a post on X the situation was “serious” and called any attack on a nuclear plant unacceptable.

“There is now a danger of a nuclear incident here,” Grossi said. “Today I was told about several cases of drone attacks on the territory, on the plant’s facilities. At the plant I saw traces of these attacks.”

But the plant now is operating “in a mode very close to normal,” he said.

The Russian Defense Ministry asserted Tuesday that Ukraine has suffered heavy casualties in Kursk — some 6,600 troops killed or injured — and that more than 70 tanks have been destroyed along with scores of armored vehicles. Those figures could not be independently confirmed.

The head of the Ukrainian army’s claim of territorial control came hours after the second consecutive barrage of nighttime air and missile attacks from Russia.

Five people were reported killed and 16 injured in the attacks, which Zelenskyy said included 81 drones as well as cruise and ballistic missiles.

In the Kyiv region, which struggled with blackouts after Monday’s onslaught that targeted energy facilities throughout the country, five air alerts were called during the night. The regional administration said air defenses destroyed all the drones and missiles but falling debris set off forest fires.

After Monday’s barrage across Ukraine of more than 100 missiles and a similar number of drones, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said “the energy infrastructure has once again become the target of Russian terrorists” and urged Ukraine’s allies to provide it with long-range weapons and permission to use them on targets inside Russia.

President Joe Biden called Monday’s Russian attack on energy infrastructure “outrageous” and said he had “reprioritized U.S. air defense exports so they are sent to Ukraine first.” He also said the U.S. was “surging energy equipment to Ukraine to repair its systems and strengthen the resilience of Ukraine’s energy grid.”

The Russian Defense Ministry said the attacks used “long-range precision air- and sea-based weapons and strike drones against critical energy infrastructure facilities that support the operation of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex. All designated targets were hit.”

Russian officials reported four Ukrainian missiles were shot down over the Kursk region. (Source: Defense News)

27 Aug 24. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has renewed pleas for Kyiv’s western allies to lift restrictions on his forces’ use of weapons against military targets in Russia, as Moscow unleashed a second night of devastating air strikes on Ukraine. Zelenskyy’s appeal and the Russian air strikes come as Kyiv and Moscow battle to gain the upper hand ahead of potential negotiations that the warring sides have insinuated could happen before the end of the year.  Ukrainian forces have turned the tables on Moscow with their audacious invasion of the Kursk region — the first time a foreign army has penetrated Russia’s border and occupied territory since the second world war. But Russian troops have continued their steady advance in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region by exploiting Kyiv’s manpower and weaponry shortages, battlefield blunders and thin lines of defence. They are now within 10km of the key logistical hub of Pokrovsk and threatening Kyiv’s grip on the rest of the region. Zelenskyy has argued that to gain the upper hand and be able to dictate the terms of a just end to Russia’s war, Ukraine needs to strike deep behind enemy lines, where it can weaken Moscow’s military capabilities. But it is heavily reliant on its western allies for arms and ammunition, particularly those capable of hitting long-range targets. And those partners have been hesitant to deliver such powerful weapons or to allow Kyiv to use those it has provided inside Russia. Kyiv has in recent weeks provided information to Washington about specific targets that it would like to strike using US Atacms missiles, as well as British Storm Shadow and French Scalp missiles, according to a senior Ukrainian official. The targets include airfields, ammunitions depots, fuel storage and command and control centres. (Source: FT.com)

23 Aug 24. Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine. Ahead of Ukrainian Independence Day, today the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration’s sixty-fourth tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package, which has an estimated value of $125 m, will provide Ukraine additional capabilities to meet its most urgent needs, including: air defense capabilities; munitions for rocket systems and artillery; and anti-tank weapons.

The capabilities in this announcement include:

• Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) equipment and munitions;
• Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition;
• Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles;
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
• High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV) ambulances;
• Small arms ammunition;
• Medical equipment;
• Demolitions equipment and munitions; and
• Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.

As Ukraine prepares to celebrate its Independence Day on August 24 – more than two and a half years since the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion – the United States and the international coalition of some 50 Allies and partners remain committed to supporting Ukraine’s brave defenders that continue to fight against Russian aggression. (Source: U.S. DoD)

26 Aug 24. Latest US military aid to Ukraine will include C-UAS systems. The United States Department of Defense (DoD) has announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defence needs.  Making the announcement, President Biden said the package includes “counter-drone equipment and anti-armor missiles to defend against Russia’s evolving tactics on the battlefield”. This latest round of military aid is the Biden Administration’s sixty-fourth tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. The package has an estimated total value of USD125 m. In addition to the C-UAS technology, it will include ammunition, Javelin and AT-4 anti-armour systems, ambulances, medical equipment and spare parts. (Source: www.unmannedairspace.info)

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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.

A CNIM Group Company

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