NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Aug 27.

Aug 26.

26 Aug 24. Russia struck facilities holding arms given to Ukraine by the West, potentially including F-16 jets, the Kremlin has claimed.  The country’s defence ministry confirmed that it had launched over 100 missiles and 100 attack drones on Ukraine early on Monday.

“This morning the armed forces of the Russian Federation launched a massive strike with long-range air and sea-based precision weapons, and with operational and tactical aviation and unmanned aerial vehicles against critical energy infrastructure facilities supporting the work of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex,” the ministry said.

Russia appeared to reference Western-supplied F-16 jets, stating that it had also targeted storage facilities containing aircraft ammunition provided to Kyiv by Western countries at two airfields.

“All designated targets were hit, resulting in disruption to the electricity supply and to the transport – by rail – of weapons and ammunition to the line of contact,” the statement added. At least five people were killed by the strikes and Ukraine’s energy infrastructure crippled. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

26 Aug 24. Russia launches massive missile and drone attack on Ukraine Long-range Ukrainian drones also target Russian regions on Monday. Central Kyiv was rocked by explosions on Monday as Ukrainian air defences intercepted incoming Russian missiles and drones during a massive aerial bombardment of targets across the country. The Ukrainian air force reported that 17 Russian bombers had launched high-powered missiles while dozens of attack drones targeted cities and critical infrastructure in all corners of Ukraine. The attack began around midnight and continued into the morning. “The enemy is terrorising the whole of Ukraine with missiles again. The energy sector is in the crosshairs,” energy minister German Galushchenko wrote on Facebook. The Financial Times witnessed two blasts from air defences engaging incoming projectiles over the Ukrainian capital at around 9am local time. Serhiy Popko, head of Kyiv’s regional military administration, urged residents of the Ukrainian capital to remain in bomb shelters until the air raid alert was lifted. “Energy workers are working to restore the lights. Keep calm and stay in shelters until the air-raid alarm goes off,” the Kyiv city administration told the capital’s residents. Water supply was also interrupted in some districts. Explosions were reported by authorities in at least 15 regions, with civilian deaths reported in the western city of Lutsk and south-eastern Dnipro. The regional military administration of Lviv reported that Russia had attacked energy facilities in the western region, resulting in partial power outages. Moscow has been targeting Ukrainian energy facilities, leading to rolling blackouts across the country. These Russian attacks have taken out more than 9GW of the country’s power generation capacity, equal to about half of what the peak energy consumption was last winter. (Source: FT.com)

Aug 24.

• Russia-Ukraine: Meltdown at Russian nuclear facility is highly unlikely despite attack allegations. On 22 August, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of attempting to strike the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP, Kursk oblast). Putin did not provide further information regarding his allegations, nor did he offer evidence to support his statement. Nevertheless, he disclosed that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been informed, adding that its specialists have promised to assess the situation. His comments reflect Russian efforts to portray Ukraine as a threat to nuclear safety. These efforts likely aim to erode Western support for Kyiv. However, a senior Ukrainian official responsible for countering disinformation refuted Putin’s allegations that Ukraine attempted to strike the facility. Putin’s remarks align with our ongoing assessment that Russian officials typically increase their claims (or threats) of nuclear escalation when Moscow is facing setbacks on the battlefield. Ultimately, we assess that the threat of a major nuclear incident at the KNPP remains low, though the risk of low-level attacks and/or false-flag operations remains credible.
• Germany: Raised security alert at NATO air base is consistent with trend of threats to military sites. Earlier on 23 August, security procedures were heightened to their second-highest level at Geilenkirchen NATO air base (North Rhine-Westphalia state) amid concerns over an unspecified threat. Officials confirmed that security level ‘Charlie’ is currently in place, though they noted that this is ‘purely a precautionary measure’. Nevertheless, non-critical staff at the base were sent home after intelligence reportedly indicated a possible threat. This development is consistent with an emerging trend of growing threats to military bases across Germany. On 14 August, a German military barracks next to Cologne Bonn Airport (CGN, North Rhine-Westphalia) was temporarily closed due to suspicions that the drinking water had been contaminated. On 30 June, several US military bases across Germany were also placed on high alert amid a possible unspecified terrorist threat. While we cannot confirm what triggered the heightened security level at Geilenkirchen, Islamist and far-right extremism remain credible threats. We also assess that Russian espionage and sabotage operations constitute a possible cause.

23 Aug 24. Privately owned South African defence equipment manufacturer and supplier, The Paramount Group, shot down reports of its Mbombe 6 infantry combat vehicle (ICV) being in widespread service with the ground forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence earlier this week shared images of a Mbombe 6 painted with Ukrainian flags and equipped with a Ukrainian turret, prompting reports that multiple vehicles are in service with the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade of Ukraine.

A Paramount spokesman told defenceWeb it appeared the information used in the latest reports is misleading as there was and is only one Mbombe 6 in Ukraine – a demonstration vehicle – exported with full documentation ahead of the Russian invasion in February 2022.

The demo ICV was fitted with a Ukrainian made Spys-Syntez turret equipped with a 30 mm cannon and inspected by what Paramount said was “the Ukrainian military’s Commander-in-Chief” along with other weapons and equipment in April this year.

In a report dated 19 August, Global Defense News has it “South African Mbombe 6 armoured vehicles fitted with locally developed BM-5 turret (sic)” are deployed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s armed forces. It gives no indication of the number of Mbombe 6 ICVs in service. The Defense Post follows much the same line in a report headlined “Ukraine operating South African Mbombe 6 armoured fighting vehicle” stating one South African ICV was in service with the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade’s Edelweiss unit.

Paramount also debunked reports that the Mbombe 6 was being licensed built in Ukraine. The company emphasised that the vehicle was sent to Ukraine with all the necessary National Conventional Arms Control Committee (NCACC) permits from the South African government but could not return due to the conflict. Paramount said permit validity had been extended to next year as a result.

The Mbombe 6 was launched in 2010 and since then has been ordered by Ecuador and Jordan. Kazakhstan Paramount Engineering (KPE) is building the Mbombe 6 and 8 as the Barys 6 and 8 vehicles for the Kazakh Ministry of Defence.

The Mbombe 6 weighs 17.3 tonnes empty and has a payload of 5.2 tonnes. The vehicle can carry three crew and eight soldiers. Its hull meets STANAG 4569 Level 4, which means the vehicle can withstand a 10 kg TNT blast under its hull or any wheel station. Ballistic protection is to Level 3.

The Mbombe family (4×4 Mbombe 4, 6×6 Mbombe 6, and 8×8 Mbombe 8) features a flat mine-protected floor, giving a lower and better stability than V-shaped armoured hulls. All three models share 80% common components to reduce through life costs and make training and logistics easier. A six-cylinder diesel gives a top speed of more than 110km/h.

At the DSEI show last year, Paramount said that its Mbombe 6 has been ordered by national defence forces in Latin America and in the Southern African Development Community (SADEC). More than 20 of its next-generation infantry combat vehicles were then in production, with deliveries underway, the company said at the time. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)

Aug 22.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS 

• OFFENSIVES: According to various Ukrainian commanders on the frontlines, the Kursk offensive has increased munitions shortages in the Donbas; ‘shell rationing’ is in now place for the first time since April
• STRIKES: The US embassy in the capital Kyiv has warned of an increased risk of Russian drone and missile attacks across the country over the next few days in connection with Ukrainian Independence Day (24 August)
• AID: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has reaffirmed that Berlin will continue to support Ukraine ‘for as long as necessary’ despite the country’s growing budget difficulties and moratorium on new funding requests
• FORECAST: Ukraine now claims that it has now advanced between 18-21 miles (28-35km) into Russia’s Kursk oblast and controls 488 square miles (1,263 sq km) of Russian territory
• OFFENSIVES: On 21 August, the Financial Times (FT) reported that, according to various Ukrainian commanders on the frontlines, the Kursk operation has increased munitions shortages in the Donbas; ‘shell rationing’ is in place once again. The article featured various interviews with commanders, including an artillery officer who stated that his brigade in eastern Ukraine has returned to rationing shells, the first time it has done so since the US Congress approved aid to Ukraine in April. He stated that the reallocation of resources to the Kursk offensive in the north is part of the reason for this. Ukrainian sources also report that the state relocated upwards of 10,000 troops from Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts – including many of its most elite and experienced airborne and mechanised brigades. As previously assessed, the Kursk offensive offers Ukrainian forces significant opportunities, but it also presents risks by dividing scarce resources which could yet undermine defensive operations in the Donbas.
• BAKHMUT: Russian forces continue to grind forward in the Toretsk direction; Russian Minister of Defence Andrei Belousov claimed on 21 August that Russian forces now control all of Niu York (Donetsk oblast). This remains unconfirmed, however, as numerous Ukrainian sources maintain that Ukrainian forces still control around 20% of the town. Nevertheless, Russian forces are highly likely continuing to advance in the area and it remains possible that Ukrainian forces have already withdrawn from the pocket to the east of Niu York to prevent a tactical encirclement. Meanwhile, Russian forces have also made confirmed advances to the north-east in Pivdenne and Zalizne, both of which border the southern outskirts of Toretsk itself. The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed on 19 August that their forces are now in total control of Zalizne (Donetsk oblast), but this cannot be confirmed.
• DONETSK: The operational situation in Donetsk remains on trend, with Russian forces maintaining a high intensity of attacks towards Pokrovsk, resulting in confirmed gains in recent days. On 22 August, the Ukrainian General Staff reported 53 combat clashes over the past 24 hours along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk line. Geolocated footage from 20 August confirms recent Russian advances in north-western Zhuravka, south-east of Pokrovsk. Additional footage from 20 August shows Russian forces progressing within south-eastern Hrodivka, located east of Pokrovsk, indicating that Russian forces are succeeding in slowly expanding the salient.
• KHARKIV: Nothing significant to report
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
• SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage published on 20 August indicates that Russian forces have advanced north-east of Rubizhne (Zaporizhzhia oblast) and are now contesting the village of Luhivske, which sits on the Kovka River. The southern axis highly likely remains a low-priority frontline for the Russian high command, in contrast to the Donetsk and Bakhmut lines; it has been broadly static in recent weeks. While this advance towards Luhivske is limited in scope, it does indicate that Russian forces are continuing to launch low-level attacks across the full breadth of the Ukrainian frontline in a bid to maintain pressure and potentially exploit any vulnerabilities.
• STRIKES: Early on 20 August, Russia attacked Ukraine with two Iskandr-M/Kn-23 ballistic missiles, one Iskandr-K cruise missile, an unspecified number of Kh-59 missiles and 26 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian forces intercepted 25 drones, the Iskandr-K cruise missile and two Kh-59 missiles. Air defences were active over Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Vinnytsia oblasts. The regional authorities reported damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv oblast and an industrial facility in Ternopil oblast.
• STRIKES: On 21 July, Russian forces launched two Iskandr-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, one Kh-59/Kh-69 missile and a large-scale drone attack, including 69 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted one Kh-59/Kh-69 missile and 50 drones over Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Odesa, Poltava and Sumy oblasts. Ukraine’s Air Force reported that 16 drones failed to reach their targets because of electronic warfare measures.
• STRIKES: Early on 22 August, Russian forces launched ten Shahed-136/131 drones which principally targeted Ukrainian military positions along the frontline in the Kharkiv oblast. Ukraine’s Air Force reported the interception of two unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs); the other UAVs failed to reach their targets. Russian forces also launched Kh-31P and two Iskandr-M ballistic missiles, which Ukrainian forces failed to intercept.
• STRIKES: On 21 August, the US embassy in Ukraine warned of an increased risk of Russian drone and missile attacks across the country over the next few days in connection with Ukrainian Independence Day (24 August). The embassy urged US citizens in Ukraine to monitor local media for updates, identify shelter locations in advance and to take shelter immediately in the event of any air strike alert. It also advised US nationals to follow the directions of Ukrainian officials and first responders in case of an emergency. Our assessment aligns with that of the US embassy, particularly given Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast and a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack targeting the Russian capital, Moscow, on 21 August.
• STRIKES: Overnight on 20-21 August, Ukrainian forces carried out a large-scale drone attack, primarily targeting Moscow oblast. Sergei Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, stated that this was one of the largest drone attacks against the capital to date. Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that its air defences intercepted 45 drones over Moscow oblast. Meanwhile, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR), said the attack targeted a signal intelligence centre in the Podolsk district on the outskirts of Moscow and the nearby Ostafyevo Airport (OSF). Drones also reportedly targeted the Millerovo military airbase in Russia’s Rostov oblast. Budanov explained that the extent of the damage caused to various targets is still being assessed. It remains a realistic possibility that Russian forces will respond with large-scale strikes against Kyiv oblast on or around Independence Day (24 August); this could trigger a cycle of retaliatory attacks against both Moscow and Kyiv over the coming weeks.
• STRIKES: The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukraine’s Navy conducted a strike with unspecified weapons, hitting a Russian S-300 air defence system position near Novoshakhtinsk (Rostov oblast) on 21 August. The Ukrainian military authorities are still assessing the damage caused by the strike. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that the attack was conducted with Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMs), claiming that this was the first instance of Ukraine using such projectiles against Russian de jure territory. However, as of writing, there is no visual evidence supporting such claims. Ukraine is unlikely to use Western-provided projectiles against Russian territory without US approval.
• STRIKES: Also on 21 August, the regional authorities in Russia’s northern Murmansk oblast warned that there was a heightened risk of drone attack, imposing flight restrictions in the region. The authorities issued the warning following reports by Russian opposition sources and milbloggers claiming that Ukraine launched a drone attack against objects in the region. The sources claimed that the attack targeted the Olenya airfield (Murmansk oblast), which houses Russian Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 strategic bomber aircraft. The attack has yet to be visually confirmed, but, if it did take place, would indicate Ukraine’s ever-expanding capabilities to strike sensitive military targets deeper inside Russia. Murmansk is around 1,150 miles (1,840km) north of Ukraine.
• STRIKES: Early on 22 August, Ukrainian forces orchestrated a second consecutive drone attack against the Marinovka airbase in the village of Oktyabrsky (Russia’s Volgograd oblast). An unnamed source within Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said the attack hit a fuel warehouse and a bomb storage facility. Russian Telegram channels reported ten explosions during the attack. Satellite imagery shows several fires on the airfield, which housed around 30 aircraft and eight trucks as of 19 August. The latest Ukrainian attacks underscore its ongoing strategy to degrade Russian aviation capabilities and air defences.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• CONSCRIPTION: Bloomberg reported on 20 August that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been attempting to push allies to help return more men of fighting age to Ukraine. However, unspecified politicians from Hungary and Poland have insisted that they will not send Ukrainian refugees back as long as the war continues. Host countries do have an economic incentive to retain their Ukrainian refugee populations. In the Czech Republic, Ukrainian refugees paid almost twice as much in taxes in Q1 as they received in welfare benefits. In addition to the legal difficulties of forcibly returning Ukrainian refugees, this reluctance will likely reinforce ongoing military and labour personnel shortages in Ukraine over the coming months.
• RELIGION: On 20 August, Ukraine’s Parliament (the Verkhovna Rada) passed a law banning religious groups linked to the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) or other faith groups supporting Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The relevant bill was approved with 265 votes in favour and 29 against. Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, who heads the ROC, has staunchly defended the invasion and referred to it as a ‘holy war’. The ROC has also served as a significant soft power tool for furthering Russian cultural and political influence.
• RELIGION: The Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) has been affiliated with the ROC for centuries, though the former declared its ‘full self-sufficiency and independence’ from Moscow three months after the beginning of the invasion in February 2022. The State Service of Ukraine for Ethnopolitics and Freedom of Conscience assesses that the UOC remains a structural unit of the ROC. Around 70% of Ukraine’s population follows Orthodox Christianity. As such, the recent law will possibly prove moderately polarising within Ukrainian society.
• AID: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reaffirmed on 21 August that Berlin will continue to support Ukraine ‘for as long as necessary’ amid the country’s growing budget difficulties. The remarks come after German media reported on 17 August that the country’s government will halt new military aid to Ukraine as part of the ruling coalition’s strategy to reduce spending. The German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) claimed that the moratorium on new assistance is already in force and will affect new requests for funding. Germany has been a significant contributor of military assistance to Ukraine.
• AID: Despite growing uncertainty regarding Germany’s long-term funding for Ukraine, Germany intends to deliver four more IRIS-T air defence systems and other equipment to Ukraine by the end of the year. On 19 August, German government spokesperson Wolfgang Büchner said Berlin would provide ten Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, 16 self-propelled howitzers, ten Leopard main battle tanks, drones and thousands of rounds of artillery and tank ammunition. Meanwhile, in 2025, Germany plans to deliver 20 self-propelled howitzers, 20 Marder infantry vehicles, 37 Leopard tanks, six additional IRIS-T systems and other equipment.
• AID: The 24th meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (Ramstein format) will take place on 6 September at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany (Rhineland-Palatinate state). The previous meeting was held on 13 June; this session focused largely on bolstering air defence for Ukraine. It is uncertain what the main agenda of the upcoming meeting will be, though we assess that various countries will likely make various aid pledges at this summit.

FORECAST

OFFENSIVES: On 20 August, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces have now advanced between 18-21 miles (28-35km) into Russia’s Kursk oblast. With the operation now in its third week, Syrskyi claimed that Ukraine has captured 488 square miles (1,263 sq km) of Russian territory and 93 settlements. During a televised briefing, Syrskyi also showed a map of the Kursk incursion, indicating the Ukrainian forward line of troops (FLOT) in the region and indicating further advances in recent days, particularly north-east of Korenevo (Kursk oblast). Geolocated footage from the last few days has confirmed Ukrainian advances east of Sudzha as well as further north and west near Korenevo (both Kursk oblast). Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have continued striking Russian bridges across the Seym River to the west of Korenevo. Geolocated footage published on 19 and 21 August confirms strikes against a Russian pontoon bridge and staging areas on the banks of the Seym River; it remains unclear whether Ukrainian forces have struck other such pontoon crossings in recent days.

The Russian governor of Bryansk oblast (which neighbours Kursk oblast to the north-west), Alexander Bogomaz, claimed on 22 August that Russian border forces had successfully repelled an attempted Ukrainian incursion into the region. While we cannot confirm this, if accurate, this would indicate that Ukrainian forces are continuing supplementary reconnaissance and testing attacks across the full breadth of the international border to keep the pressure up and test for weaknesses in Russia’s defences.

Russian independent media outlet Meduza cited sources close to the Russian Presidential Administration on 21 August who claimed that the Kremlin believes the fighting in Kursk will last for ‘several months’. Meduza’s sources claimed that the Kremlin is conducting an information operation to normalise Ukrainian control of Russian territory in the short-to-medium term and downplay its significance. Instead, the Kremlin is reportedly seeking to convince Russian domestic audiences that Russian forces must prioritise inflicting a military defeat upon Kyiv in eastern Ukraine, after which the liberation of its territory will inevitably take place. If accurate, this would align with our assessment that Moscow is not prepared to redeploy significant numbers of troops away from key front lines (namely the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes) to respond to the Kursk incursion; instead, it will continue to prioritise advances in Donetsk oblast.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian media outlet RBC-Ukraine cited unnamed Ukrainian sources in the ‘political-military leadership’ that Putin has in fact ordered Russian forces to repel Ukrainian forces from Kursk oblast by 1 October – though notably without redeploying forces from prioritised frontlines in the Donbas. Throughout the war, Ukrainian sources have frequently claimed that Moscow has set seemingly arbitrary temporal deadlines to achieve operational objectives – deadlines which, if they were given, have almost always been missed. It remains unclear when the Kremlin expects to expel Ukrainian forces from Kursk oblast; however, the unconfirmed ongoing information campaign aiming at downplaying the Kursk incursion would strongly indicate that Moscow is prioritising offensive operations in the Donbas over reclaiming its de jure territory. That said, without large-scale reinforcements from other frontlines, it remains unclear whether Russian forces will have sufficient capabilities for a successful counter-offensive. This raises the prospect of the expanded use of conscript soldiers in military operations, a highly controversial issue that the Kremlin has, until now, sought to avoid.

• Ukraine: Threat of Russian long-range strikes will increase around Ukrainian state holiday. On 21 August, the US embassy in Ukraine warned of an increased risk of Russian drone and missile attacks across the country over the next few days in connection with Ukrainian Independence Day (24 August). The embassy urged US citizens in Ukraine to monitor local media for updates, identify shelter locations in advance and take shelter immediately in the event of any air strike alert. It also advised US nationals to follow the directions of Ukrainian officials and first responders in case of an emergency. Our assessment aligns with that of the US embassy, particularly given Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast and a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack targeting the capital Moscow on 21 August. Russia’s Defence Ministry reported shooting down 11 drones over Moscow oblast. Notably, on 24 August 2022, a Russian strike against a railway station killed 25 people in Chaplyne (Dnipropetrovsk oblast, Ukraine). We assess that Russian forces have demonstrated a pattern of launching long-range strikes against Ukrainian urban centres on symbolically significant anniversaries or state occasions.

Aug 20.

*Russia: US sanctions will continue to restrict access to global financial system. On 19 August, MBank, one of Kyrgyzstan’s largest banks, suspended money transfers via Russian banks under sanctions, including Sberbank, Tinkoff and MTS. Also on 19 August, Russian media reported complaints by Russian businesses that Chinese banks are returning their payments for goods already delivered by Chinese suppliers to Russian importers. The move is due to Chinese banks determining that such payments do not meet compliance requirements as Chinese financial institutions become increasingly wary of the risk of secondary sanctions. Such reports underscore Russian businesses’ growing difficulties in making cross-border payments with financial entities located in Moscow’s closest economic partners, such as China and Kyrgyzstan. Over recent months, financial actors in these countries have been increasingly reluctant to service Russian businesses due to growing concerns over US secondary sanctions. We assess that the threat of US secondary sanctions will continue to disrupt cross-border financial transactions, further restricting Moscow’s access to the global financial system. For further analysis of the impact of US sanctions on Russia,

Aug 19.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• NUCLEAR: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned that conditions at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) are deteriorating amid allegations by Russian sources that Ukraine is preparing to attack the plant with a dirty bomb
• NEGOTIATIONS: Russian and Ukrainian officials were reportedly due to meet in Qatar this month to discuss a proposed moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure (which Moscow denies)
• BELARUS: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka claimed that Belarus moved almost a third of its armed forces to the border with Ukraine, though a renewed incursion into northern Ukraine remains highly unlikely
• FORECAST: Ukraine’s Kursk offensive continues to expand, with strikes against key bridges across the Seym River indicating potential preparations to isolate Russian forces south of the river
• BAKHMUT: While Russian forces continue to prioritise defending Kursk oblast (Russia) and maintaining their own offensive towards Pokrovsk, heavy fighting continues along the Bakhmut axis. Around the key Russian objective of Chasiv Yar (Donetsk oblast), which has experienced little movement in recent weeks, Ukrainian forces likely marginally advanced and retook some positions on the west (right) bank of the Siverskyi-Donets-Donbas canal in east Chasiv Yar. This indicates that Russian forces have been struggling to maintain even their currently small presence on the west bank of the canal inside Chasiv Yar. Nevertheless, geolocated footage of areas further south published on 15 August indicates that Russian forces successfully advanced across the Siverskyi-Donets-Donbas canal north of Ozaryanivka, located around ten miles (15km) south-east of Chasiv Yar.
• BAKHMUT: Further south, Russian forces have continued to make slow advances in the Toretsk area; this manoeuvring has presented Russia with an opportunity to encircle a small pocket of Ukrainian forces, but only if it can maintain this pressure. Geolocated footage from 16 August indicates that Russian forces advanced south-west of Zalizne – located less than two miles (3km) south of Toretsk – along Ploneriv Prospekt towards the village of Nelipivka. While Russian forces continue to fight in nearby Niu York to the south of Nelipivka, this latest advance will place further pressure on defending Ukrainian units as Russian forces slowly tighten an emerging encirclement east of Niu York. If Russian forces continue to advance in the coming days and weeks, this will possibly coerce Ukrainian forces in the pocket to withdraw, allowing Russian forces to consolidate control over Niu York and to prepare for further advances on Toretsk.
• DONETSK: On 19 August, the head of Donetsk oblast, Serhiy Dobryak, ordered Pokrovsk’s residents to evacuate the city within the next two weeks due to steadily advancing Russian forces. The pace of Russian attacks remains intense along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk line, where the Ukrainian General Staff reported 45 clashes over the past 24 hours. On 16 August, Dobryak noted that Russian forces are approximately six miles (10 km) from Pokrovsk. Geolocated footage from 16 August shows recent Russian advances within south-eastern Hrodivka (located to the east of Pokrovsk). Russian gains towards Pokrovsk – around 0.78 square miles (2 sq km) a day in recent months – have come at high personnel and material costs, which have been partially offset by Russia’s recruitment efforts and military industrial production. However, there is a realistic possibility that Kyiv’s offensive in Kursk will strain Russia’s ability to sustain these efforts, leading to the culmination of Russian offensive operations in the coming weeks and months. As such, should Russian forces capture Pokrovsk, it remains uncertain whether they will be able to exploit the control of this logistical hub to pursue wider offensive operations in Donetsk.
• KHARKIV: The rate of Russian airstrikes against the Kharkiv axis has reportedly decreased markedly in recent days, likely due to Moscow’s reprioritisation of its assets to Kursk. The spokesperson for Ukraine’s Kharkiv Grouping of Forces, Vitaly Sarantsev, reported on 15 August that Russian aircraft have recently launched a daily average of only two to four glide bomb attacks against Kharkiv, in contrast to between 30 and 50 before the Kursk offensive. While we cannot confirm this statement, it would align (if true) with wider indications that the Russian high command has de-prioritised the Kharkiv front in favour of reallocating military resources to containing the Kursk offensive, while also maintaining the offensive towards Pokrovsk.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Geolocated footage from 17 August shows recent Russian advances towards northern Makkivka, a settlement located to the north-west of Kreminna.
• SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
• STRIKES: On 16 August, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with three Iskandr-M ballistic missiles, three Shahed-136/131 drones and two unidentified drones. Ukrainian forces destroyed all the unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, and Zhytomyr oblasts.
• STRIKES: On 17 August, Ukraine intercepted all 14 Russian-launched Shahed-136/131 drones over Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Poltava, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Ukraine’s air force reported that a Russian launched Iskandr-K cruise missile hit a civilian object in Sumy (Sumy oblast).
• STRIKES: On 18 August, Russian forces launched one Iskandr-M ballistic missile, two North-Korean-provided KN-23 ballistic missiles, two Kh-59 missiles, three unidentified cruise missiles and eight Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted the two KN-23 missiles, as well as three unspecified cruise missiles and all the UAVs. Ukraine’s air force claimed that the remaining projectiles did not reach their targets. The Ukrainian authorities reported that a drone strike damaged an electrical substation in Dnipropetrovsk oblast, while falling debris from unspecified missiles hit residential buildings in Kyiv oblast.
• STRIKES: On 18 August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia launched 40 missiles, 200 combat drones and 750 guided aerial bombs against Ukrainian urban centres in the past week. Zelensky stated that such attacks underscore Moscow’s efforts to target civilian targets as part of its terror campaign against the Ukrainian population. We assess that Russian strikes will continue to pose elevated security risks to civilian objects in the foreseeable future despite possible talks on curtailing strikes against energy infrastructure (see NEGOTIATIONS below).
• STRIKES: Early on 19 August, Ukrainian air defences intercepted all 11 Shahed-136/131 drones launched by Russia over Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Sumy and Vinnytsia oblasts.
• STRIKES: Meanwhile, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed on 16 August that Ukrainian forces attacked the Kerch Bridge connecting mainland Russia to occupied Crimea with 12 US-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS). Russia’s MoD claimed that its air defences intercepted all the missiles. The Kerch Bridge remains a priority target for Ukraine’s striking strategy, which aims to disrupt logistical supplies to Crimea.
• STRIKES: The Ukrainian General Staff reported that overnight on 17-18 August, Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) co-ordinated a successful strike against the Kavkaz oil depot in Proletarsk (Rostov oblast, Russia). Satellite imagery posted on 18 August confirms an explosion at the site. The local authorities claimed that air defences intercepted a Ukrainian drone and that falling debris caused a fire at the site. The latest Ukrainian attack underscores Kyiv’s commitment to targeting Russian oil infrastructure, which will moderately increase pressure on the Russian oil sector (replicating Moscow’s own strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure).

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• NUCLEAR: On 17 August, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned that safety levels at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) are deteriorating after a drone strike near the plant on the same day. On 16 August, an unspecified representative in Russian law enforcement claimed that Ukrainian forces are planning to strike the ZNPP and Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP) using warheads with radioactive material – a so-called ‘dirty bomb’. No evidence was provided to support these claims of dirty bomb preparations, which are almost certainly fabricated.
• NUCLEAR: A spokesperson for Ukraine’s foreign ministry, Heorhiy Tykhyi, later refuted the allegations. Tykhyi emphasised that Ukraine has no intention of orchestrating an attack using dirty bombs and that it also lacks the capability to do so. Ultimately, such Russian (dis)information operations are highly likely designed to deter Western support for Ukraine by provoking concerns over a possible nuclear escalation. We previously assessed that such accusations would materialise after the Kursk offensive, as similar rhetoric and nuclear threats regularly increase during periods when Russia is encountering military setbacks (such as it currently is in Kursk). For further analysis on dirty bombs and nuclear threats, see Sibylline Special Report – Ukraine – 19 July 2023.
• NEGOTIATIONS: Russian and Ukrainian officials were reportedly due to meet in Qatar this month to discuss a proposed moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure, though the Kursk offensive resulted in Moscow postponing the summit. On 17 August, the Washington Post cited sources familiar with the alleged talks, who claimed that both sides have been in discussions about a Qatar-proposed moratorium since June, but that any such talks only have a 20% chance of succeeding. While Russia has not reportedly withdrawn from the proposals, it remains unclear whether talks will proceed. Nevertheless, on 18 August, the Russian foreign ministry denied that Russia intended to take part in the negotiations.
• NEGOTIATIONS: It remains unlikely that either side would entirely agree to end strikes against energy infrastructure in the short term – though this could realistically change in the coming months if the West approves Ukraine’s use of longer-range weapons to strike inside Russia. Nevertheless, if such talks were planned to take place, this does indicate the growing willingness of both sides to engage on certain issues – even without necessarily reaching an agreement. Even if an agreement was reached, this would not necessarily mean that either side would adhere to it for long. We furthermore continue to assess that neither side is ready to entertain serious concessions that would end the war or achieve a temporary ceasefire. Nevertheless, progress can still be made on smaller issues; Kyiv has indicated that its Kursk operation is in part aimed at improving Ukraine’s negotiating position and forcing Russia, at the very least, to entertain larger-scale prisoner of war (POW) exchanges.
• ENERGY: Ukraine’s state power grid operator, Ukrenergo, announced on 18 August that scheduled power outages would be in force on 19 August. Ukrenergo stated that the restrictions would be in place between 1700hrs and 2100hrs (local time) due to higher temperatures increasing energy consumption. The operator noted that planned blackouts would not be enforced during other hours, likely minimising the impact on business operations. Regular planned blackouts were enforced in July due to higher temperatures, but no scheduled power cuts have been implemented in around three weeks. As such, hotter temperatures represent a factor that will further strain Ukrainian energy security periodically.
• BELARUS: In an interview on 15 August, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka claimed that Belarus moved almost a third of its armed forces to the border with Ukraine. Lukashenka alleged that this deployment was in response to Ukraine having stationed more than 120,000 troops near the shared frontier due to concerns that Belarus and Russia would attack from Gomel oblast (Belarus). According to Lukashenka, Ukraine withdrew its additional forces from the border, as did Belarus, after both sides communicated via Ukraine’s special services.
• BELARUS: Lukashenka implied that Ukraine deployed additional resources to the Belarusian border due to preparations for an Independence Day parade in late June / early July in Minsk (Belarus). The Belarusian leader stated that many aircraft and ground force units were transferred to Belarus, including from Russia, to participate in the parade. Ultimately, Lukashenka’s remarks about moving a third of the country’s army to the Ukrainian border are unconfirmed. Ukraine’s State Border Service (DPSU) reported on 18 August that it has not seen an increase in equipment or manpower along the frontier. A Belarusian offensive or renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine from Belarus is highly unlikely for the foreseeable future, though Lukashenka possibly made such claims to highlight the risks stemming from miscalculation along the Belarus-Ukraine border.
• BELARUS: Meanwhile, Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin claimed on 16 August that there is a high probability of an armed provocation by Ukraine against Belarus. There is a realistic possibility that Belarusian officials are increasing such rhetoric amid Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk. However, we assess that Ukraine is highly unlikely to attack Belarusian territory in the near term as this would have limited strategic or symbolic advantages for Kyiv at this present time. False-flag operations nevertheless remain possible in a bid to force Ukraine to redeploy forces to screen the Belarusian border.
• AID: On 18 August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky implored Kyiv’s allies to accelerate weapons deliveries amid Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk. Zelensky emphasised this appeal to France, the UK and the US. Meanwhile, reports emerged on 16 August that the US is effectively blocking the UK from allowing Ukrainian forces to fire UK-supplied Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles at targets inside Russia. According to an unspecified UK government source, officials made the request more than a month ago (and have yet to receive a response). London reportedly requires consensus from allies, including France, the US and an undisclosed NATO country, over the matter. Ultimately, delays in military aid and bureaucratic processes will likely continue to act as bottlenecks that constrain Ukrainian military operations in the coming months.
• AID: Politico reported on 15 August that US President Joe Biden’s administration is open to sending Ukraine long-range cruise Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM), though its policy on their prospective use inside Russia has not changed. The Pentagon is reportedly working with Ukraine to make sure that its Soviet-era planes and recently delivered F-16s can launch the missile at targets located over 230 miles (370km) away. The provision of JASSMs would enhance Kyiv’s long-range strike capabilities, though the US would likely request restrictions on their use (such as not launching the missiles inside de jure Russian territory except for in specific circumstances). Although no final decision has been made on sending the missiles, the Biden administration has gradually authorised the provision of more advanced capabilities, increasing the possibility of Kyiv obtaining JASSMs in the coming months.

FORECAST

OFFENSIVES: In recent days, Ukrainian forces have continued to expand their area of operations slowly in Kursk, despite growing Russian resistance. In particular, geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces are consolidating their control in the area around Sudzha, and that they are advancing to the east and south of the town. On 16 August, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces had advanced between 0.6 and 1.8 miles (1 and 3km) in unspecified sectors of the frontline.

Also in recent days, Ukrainian forces likely destroyed or heavily damaged three key Russian-controlled bridges across the Seym River, which runs east to west through Kursk, undermining Russia’s ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the area. Ukrainian forces likely struck at least two of the bridges on 16 August using HIMARS systems, with footage confirming damage to the bridges in the towns of Glushkovo and Zvannoye – both of which are located to the south-west of Ukraine’s western-most positions in Kursk. Additionally, on 18 August, Russian sources reported the destruction of the third and final bridge over the Seym further to the west, near the town of Karyzh. While their destruction cannot be confirmed, the bridge over Zvannoye can likely still support foot traffic at the very least. Russian forces are likely still operating a separate pontoon bridge to the east of Glushkovo.

The targeting of these three key bridges strongly indicates that Ukrainian forces are attempting to isolate Russian forces located to the south of the river; the Ukrainians are also possibly trying to create a further pocket of territory for their forces to occupy. If Ukrainian forces are able to interdict Russian efforts to resupply their forces south of the river via pontoons, it is possible they intend to set the conditions for a major expansion of the Kursk operation.

If Russian forces are unable to resupply and repel Ukrainian forces in the area, or if they succeed in evacuating their isolated personnel, this possible next phase of the Ukrainian offensive could result in the Ukrainians acquiring 230 square miles (600 sq km) of territory south of the Seym. However, if Russia does not withdraw from the region south of the Seym, it remains unclear whether Ukrainian forces retain sufficient numbers and/or supplies to expand the operation. Nevertheless, Russian sources reported on 17 August that Ukrainian forces had seized the border town of Otruba and advanced past the international border to the bank of the Seym. Other reports indicate that Ukrainian forces are operating near the much more significant town of Tetkino, located along the border on the eastern bank of the Seym. While we cannot confirm this, such a move would possibly represent the start of a Ukrainian operation to advance south of the Seym from the west.

On 15 August, Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov announced the formation of a ‘coordination council’ within the MoD that will aim to improve the oversight of operations in the border regions of Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk oblasts (all Russia). The formation of a new council is highly likely a direct response to the increasingly complex (and poor) command and control (C2) situation, which is undermining Russia’s ability to respond effectively to Ukraine’s Kursk incursion. Nevertheless, Russian forces are moving reinforcements to the region in a bid to stabilise the frontline.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on 17 August that Ukrainian sources estimate that Russian forces have redeployed ‘several’ understrength brigades to Kursk, which represents around 5,000 personnel. While this cannot be confirmed, it remains highly likely that Russian forces are deploying significant numbers of personnel from elsewhere inside Russia, as well as lower-priority frontline sectors inside Ukraine. The WSJ’s unspecified source claims that Ukraine has around 6,000 military personnel inside Kursk, and that it would take around 20,000 Russian personnel to retake the lost territory. It is unclear how many personnel Russian forces are operating in the area. While additional Russian redeployments would further slow down Ukraine’s advances, it remains unclear when Russian forces will have sufficient capacity to conduct counter-offensive operations in Kursk. (Source: Sibylline)

22 Aug 24. In a world of drones, Ukraine’s artillerymen rushed to defend Kharkiv.  After tough months of fighting, Ukraine’s troops have been pushing Russian forces back in Kharkiv Oblast. “The situation is a little bit better … but we still fire one shell for every ten of theirs,” said Roman, an artillery gunner with the 406th Artillery Brigade, who gave only his first name in keeping with Kyiv’s military regulations.

A reporter visited troops at a staging base outside of Kharkiv city in late July, near where Russia’s military opened a new front line in May of this year. The assault caused near panic among Ukrainian forces, as Russian forces pushed over the border and steamrolled weak Ukrainian defenses.

A determined defense by some of Ukraine’s best troops halted the Russian advance at the towns of Vovchansk and Lyptsy. Now, the tide is turning, thanks in no small part to donated Western arms like the towed M777 howitzer, a weapon considered a relic of past wars just a few years ago.

The M777′s had their own special type of advanced ammunition that was initially used to great effect. Artillery units fired GPS-guided Excalibur shells with pinpoint accuracy, taking out crucial Russian nodes and complicating the invaders’ advances. Meanwhile, in Washington, U.S. officials loosened caveats that had previously prevented Ukrainian forces to target Russian units shooting across the border, lifting a key limitation on organizing defenses here.

Vitali Sarantsev, a Ukrainian military spokesperson, said: “It gave us the chance to hold them, and slow their advance. They don’t feel comfortable on border territories, so they can’t mass troops without big problems. Basically, it gives [us] an opportunity to destroy them deeply into their territory, so they can’t properly prepare.”

By now, however, Russians forces have managed to throw a wrench into the calculus of Western high-tech weaponry working its magic. Russian electronic warfare systems have vastly improved, and they are now able to jam technology like the one guiding Excalibur.

Without a satellite connection, the vaunted rounds amount to expensive pieces of metal. “It is firing but it is not exploding,” said Roman. “So, it lands, and it is like a dud.”

The M777′s still use standard, unguided explosive rounds, making them an important weapon. But they do not have the outsized impact they did when they were first introduced.

The wider significance of this is that Western assumptions about technological superiority have a limited shelf life here.

Recently introduced ATACMS missiles, supplied by the United States, are still working, but many analysts believe it is just a matter of time until the Russians discover countermeasures to these most advanced technologies.

“Warfare is about the speed of adaptation,” former Air Marshal Edward Stringer, a British Defense official, told the Wall Street Journal. “If you drip-feed an antibiotic weekly, you’ll actually train the pathogen — and we have trained the pathogen. … We didn’t need to give them that time, but we did.”

The NATO standard weapons still have an important advantage over their older, Soviet counterparts. For one, they are lighter, and more maneuverable – Ukrainian soldiers pack and unpack an M777 in and out of firing positions in about 90 seconds. When not firing, the equipment is meticulously camouflaged.

But the artillerymen here predict the days of their weapons are numbered. When Ukraine was suffering from a huge ammunition shortage, mainly due to a deadlock in the U.S. Congress and a reluctance by Republicans to approve additional military aid, Ukraine plugged the gaps in its artillery consumption with drones. Now the skies over the battlefield are saturated with Mavics, first-person-view drones, Vampyrs and all types of cheap gadgetry, many of them repurposed from civilian models that can be bought on Amazon.

Aerial drones have become so omnipresent on the battlefield that they match artillery in the amount of enemy armor destroyed and fighters killed. Crucially, they also don’t depend on the domestic political whims of Ukraine’s Western allies.

The soldiers here claim that there are still many advantages to artillery over drones. For example, artillery can hit targets much more quickly, and the shells have enough explosive power to crack armored vehicles. In addition, a hail of artillery is utterly terrifying, dealing a profoundly shocking effect on enemy morale that drones cannot yet match.

While the Ukrainians have stabilized the frontlines near Kharkiv, Russian forces are on the march elsewhere.

They have recently made territorial gains in the Donetsk region and have pushed close to the crucial logistics hub of Pokrovsk. Moscow’s forces have taken enormous casualties but appear to be able to afford them.

“As long as we have enough ammunition here, we will be fighting until the victory,” Roman, the artillery commander says.

It is a familiar refrain, repeated dozens of times on this battlefield. Every time, it is said more wearily, and slightly less hopefully than the last. When we ask the soldiers what they need from the West, the answer is the same all around: shells.

The soldiers here have accepted the logic of a bitter war of attrition, where one side will grind down the other. Despite that dynamic, none of the service members interviewed here are ready to entertain the thought of a peace deal that would cede Ukrainian territory to Russia – or at least nobody will admit to it.

A poll from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed that more than 30% of Ukrainians were now willing to consider giving Ukrainian territory to Russia for an end to the fighting.

Roman’s soldiers were contemptuous of this idea. When asked what he thought of people who suggested ceding territory for peace, one of them grinned and said, “I want to punch those people in the face.”

Meanwhile, in Kharkiv city, urban Ukrainian life continues. A bridal party that had just celebrated a wedding – a half-hour affair for close friends and family so as to not present a target for Russian missiles – could be seen in the streets on a warm evening in late July, as the sounds of birdsong and casual conversation mixed with the wail of an air raid siren in the background.

These worries didn’t deter large crowds from packing into bars and clubs lining Kharkiv’s main streets. “If a bomb fell in the street next to us, people would turn their heads to have a look, and then go back to their partying,” one reveler said.

The fight for their right to party here is entirely down to men like Roman holding the frontline against a seemingly unending stream of Russian soldiers. (Source: Defense News)

22 Aug 24. Ukraine unveils The Fury land drone to support battlefield hotspots.

The Lyut 2.0 is now being used on the front line, providing fire support for infantry and reconnaissance roles, Kyiv reveals

The Fury, or The Lyut 2.0 has so far been used in missions including identifying enemy positions

Ukrainian forces have unveiled a new unmanned ground robot, known as The Fury, a machine gun-loaded platform that can storm enemy positions.

The Lyut 2.0 is now being used on the front line, providing fire support for infantry and reconnaissance roles in hotspots in the battlefield, Kyiv has revealed.

The 12th Special Forces Brigade, formerly the Azov Brigade, posted footage this week of the terrestrial robot that resembles a mini tank traversing across difficult terrain.

Made in Ukraine, The Fury reportedly has a range of up to 20 km, can operate autonomously for up to three days and has a relatively low cost of £12,200 per robot.

It is also wrapped in Class 4 protection armour, which fends off small exploding shells as well as bullets.

The 12th Brigade said it has so far been used in missions including identifying enemy positions and acting as a decoy by drawing fire away from troop positions.

Describing its importance, Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s minister of digital transformation, wrote on Telegram: “The Fury robot attacks the Russian positions and covers our defenders during the assault.”

Ukraine’s military, he said, has praised it for its “easy to control, high level of radio and video communication… and good sight and automatic fire control both during the day and at night”.

United24, a fundraising initiative launched by Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, has been collecting donations for the models since May 2024.

A spokesman told the Telegraph that The Fury was designed for “remote combat missions such as the assault or defence of positions, surveillance and reconnaissance”.

They added: “These furious robots are mobile, efficient, safe for operators and relentless towards invaders. But most importantly they help save the lives of military personnel, assault forces and infantry who perform the most difficult objectives.”

The Fury’s deployment on the battlefield appears to be part of a broader Ukrainian initiative to integrate unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) into their military operations. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

22 Aug 24. Netherlands to donate C-UASs to Ukraine. Robin Radar Systems will send its radar-based C-UASs to Ukraine following a contract signed between the CEO, Siete Hamminga, and Commander of the Materiel and IT Command (COMMIT) Vice Admiral Jan Willem Hartman.  The Netherlands is donating 51 new radar-based counter-unmanned aircraft systems (C-UASs) to Ukraine in a bid to bolster its armed forces. Dutch company Robin Radar Systems is fulfilling the order, with deliveries scheduled to take place in stages throughout the last quarter of 2024, according to a Netherlands Ministry of Defence (MoD) announcement on 21 August. One of the key benefits of the radar is its ability to monitor and detect UASs while on-the-move (OTM), including at high speeds. By operating OTM, the radar is also less vulnerable to attack, the announcement noted. The systems are “essential to counter drone attacks from Russia”, the announcement added. The picture accompanying the press release closely resembles Robin Radar Systems’ Iris, a cylindrical-shaped 3D radar providing 360º UAS detection. Weighing 29 kg, the X-band (8–12 GHz) system features micro-Doppler technology and can detect UASs at ranges of up to 5 km. An on-the-move feature can be added to Iris, enabling it to detect, track, and classify UASs at speeds of up to 100 km/h, the company claims. The MoD has previously purchased radars from the manufacturer including static-based systems, which are currently deployed in “various locations”, the announcement concluded. (Source: Janes)

21 Aug 24. Zelenskiy says Ukraine is boosting its forces in east to resist Russian advance. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday his forces understood what Moscow was attempting to do on the Pokrovsk front in eastern Ukraine, scene of Russian advances, and that Kyiv was strengthening its forces accordingly. In a televised address, Zelenskiy urged Kyiv’s partners to keep to the agreed timetable for supplying munitions to the Ukrainian military. He said the attack Ukraine launched on Russia’s Kursk region on Aug. 6 was continuing, and that his forces controlled some areas, but gave no further details. (Source: Reuters)

22 Aug 24. US government inability to monitor Ukraine supplies. GAO says that DoD officials are often unaware of transfers authorised by the State Department until they are identified upon entry to Ukraine, if at all. The US government is unable to track military supplies transferred to Ukraine by third-party donors due to “inconsistent communication” between departments.

Based on its findings, published on 20 August 2024, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) has put forward several recommendations to foster information sharing in Washington, thereby allowing the government to identify where US manufactured items are delivered.

The State Department is responsible for authorising third-party transfers (TPTs) of defence articles of US origin. So far, the department has approved 217 cases by more than 26 foreign donors to Ukraine as of April 2024. The Department of Defense (DoD) is required to conduct end-use monitoring of these items; however, it is limited in its ability to do so.

“DoD officials are often unaware of TPTs authorised by State until they are identified upon entry to Ukraine, if at all,” says the GAO.

Ukraine military situation

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave a description of the objectives of the Ukrainian counter-offensive into Kursk, Russia last week.

“There have already been several reports by Commander-in-Chief [Ukrainian Col. Gen. Oleksandr] Syrskyi about the frontline situation and our operation in the Kursk region,” Zelenskyy said in his daily report to the Ukrainian people. “We see that the occupier is suffering losses, and this is helpful — very helpful — for our defence. It is about destroying the logistics of the Russian Army and draining their reserves.”

Ukraine’s forces must inflict maximum damage on all Russian positions, he said. The Ukrainian forces are tenaciously defending the Donbas region even as they advance into Kursk. “We are eliminating the Russian military presence in the area of our operations there,” added the head of state.

Impact on timely delivery

The GAO’s recommedations to impose more information sharing processes across government – and additional protocols for TPT countries divesting equipment to Ukraine – may add more time on preparing deliveries to the war-torn nation.

In its report, the GAO noted that the State Department’s document management procedures may not be able to notify the DoD of information on TPT authorisations in a timely manner.

Restructuring intra-govrnmental communciations to allow for this will risk cutting off Ukraine’s armed forces from much-needed equipment when it is most needed, or when it is relevant, at the height of its counter-offensive.

The pace of warfare is ever-changing and Western donors must attempt to deliver at the moment of necessity. We have seen how crucial timely US aid to Ukraine has been at the end of 2023 and beginning of 2024, when Ukrainian forces were forced onto the backfoot after US military assistance froze due to politicking in Washington over that winter period.

At the time, GloblaData Defence Analyst James Marques observed that when deprived of the Western military equipment they needed, Ukraine’s forces “demonstrated a remarkable capacity to manufacture drones, particularly first-person-view variants.

“Such munitions are used to devastating effect in frontline combat, often compensating for Ukraine’s near-constant shortfall in conventional artillery ammunition.” (Source: naval-technology.com)

22 Aug 24. Sahra Wagenknecht, Germany’s most prominent far-left politician, has taken credit for the government’s decision to limit military aid to Kyiv, saying her strong opposition to arming Ukraine was influencing Berlin’s policy on the war. In an interview with the Financial Times, Wagenknecht said the fact that the German government “has said it at least doesn’t want to continue to top up weapons deliveries” was “a result of our high opinion poll ratings”. Finance minister Christian Lindner last week warned fellow government members that he would veto any new payment requests for Kyiv. Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday denied that Berlin was giving up on Ukraine, saying Germany would donate €4bn in military aid to Kyiv next year, more than any other European country. But Wagenknecht was adamant about the impact her stance made. “We are already having an effect, even though we’re not even in power,” she said of her party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). “Our approval ratings are affecting the national debate.”  (Source: FT.com)

20 Aug 24. DOD, UDCG Continue to Look for Better Ways to Expedite Support to Ukraine. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III today spoke with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to discuss ongoing war efforts in Ukraine and details of the next meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in September.

“During their call, Minister Umerov provided an update on the impact of Russia’s continued attacks in Ukraine,” Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said during a briefing today. “Secretary Austin and the minister also discussed the next Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, which will be held next month in support of Ukraine’s urgent security assistance requirements.”

The UDCG, spearheaded by Austin, met for the first time in Germany in April 2022 and meets monthly. The group is a way for the more than 50 participating nations to coordinate their assistance to Ukraine and focus on Ukraine’s future defense needs.

Besides coordinating efforts to get much-needed military supplies to Ukraine, the UDCG also explores better ways to expedite the delivery of those materials.

“We are always looking at ways that we can expedite delivery of capabilities to the Ukrainians,” Ryder said. “The Ukraine Defense Contact Group provides an excellent forum in which to have discussions to look at processes procedures as to ensuring that the Ukrainians have what they need on the battlefield to defend themselves.”

Ryder said the U.S. has emphasized speedy delivery of systems to Ukraine from the start. In November 2022, for instance, the U.S. stood up the Security Assistance Group-Ukraine in Wiesbaden, Germany, to better coordinate training and equipping Ukrainian forces, and to help increase their situational awareness.

With more than 50 nations participating in the UDCG, Ryder said, supporting Ukraine is a complex effort — one the DOD will continue to uphold.

“That is work that is constantly ongoing,” he said. “As evidenced by the fact that you continue to see Russian forces conducting offensive action in the east of Ukraine, we also recognize the vital importance of moving as quickly as possible, so we’ll stay after it.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

21 Aug 24. Ukraine attacks Moscow in one of largest ever drone attacks on the Russian capital.

• Summary
• Moscow says it foiled one of biggest drone attacks
• Eleven drones over Moscow region destroyed
• No damage, casualties reported
• Russia says a total of 45 drones downed overnight
• Russia battles Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk

Ukraine attacked Moscow on Wednesday with at least 11 drones shot down by air defences in what Russian officials said was one of the biggest drone strikes on the capital since the war in Ukraine began in February 2022.

The war, largely a grinding artillery and drone battle across the fields, forests and villages of eastern Ukraine, escalated on Aug. 6 when Ukraine sent thousands of soldiers into Russia’s western Kursk region.

For months, Ukraine has also fought an increasingly damaging drone war against the refineries and airfields of the world’s second largest oil exporter, though major drone attacks on the Moscow region – with a population of over 21 m – are rarer.

Russia’s defence ministry said it destroyed a total of 45 drones over Russian territory, including 11 over the Moscow region, 23 over the border region of Bryansk, six over the Belgorod region, three over the Kaluga region and two over the Kursk region.

Some of the drones were destroyed over the city of Podolsk, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said. The city in the Moscow region is some 38 kms (24 miles) south of the Kremlin.

“This is one of the largest attempts to attack Moscow using drones ever,” Sobyanin said on the Telegram messaging app in the early hours of Wednesday.

“The layered defence of Moscow that was created made it possible to successfully repel all the attacks from the enemy UAVs.”

The attack comes as Russia is advancing in eastern Ukraine, where it controls about 18% of the territory, and battling to repel Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region, the biggest foreign attack on Russian territory since World War Two.

Russian media showed unverified footage of drones whirring over the dawn sky of the Moscow region and then being shot down in a ball of flame by air defences.

Moscow’s airports Vnukovo, Domodedovo and Zhukovsky limited flights for four hours but were restarted normal operations from 0330 GMT, Russia’s aviation watchdog said.

Sobyanin said that according to preliminary information, there were no injuries or damage reported in the aftermath of the attacks. There were also no casualties or damage reported in the aftermath of the attack on Bryansk in Russia’s southwest, the governor of the region Alexander Bogomaz wrote on Telegram.

Russia’s RIA state news agency reported that two drones were destroyed over the Tula region, which borders the Moscow region to its north. Vasily Golubev, governor of the Rostov region in Russia’s southwest, said air defence forces destroyed a Ukraine-launched missile over the region, with no injuries reported.

The Russia defence ministry did not mention neither Tula nor Rostov in its statement listing destroyed Ukrainian air weapons. Ukraine’s military said on Wednesday it overnight struck an S-300 anti-aircraft missile system based in Rostov region.

Reuters could not independently verify the reports.

The drone attack on Moscow is on a par with the May 2023 attack when at least eight drones were destroyed over the capital in an attack President Vladimir Putin said was Kyiv’s attempt to scare and provoke Russia.

In Kursk, Russian war bloggers said that intense battles were ongoing along the front in the region where Ukraine has carved out at least 450 square km (175 square miles) of Russian territory.

Ukraine’s military said on Wednesday it struck an S-300 anti-aircraft missile system based in Russia’s southern Rostov region overnight.

Kyiv’s General Staff said the attack took place near the settlement of Novoshakhtinsk, and that S-300s had been used to attack civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

“Explosions were observed at specified targeting points,” the General Staff said in a statement. “The accuracy of the strike is being assessed.”

Rostov governor Vasily Golubev said air defence forces had destroyed a Ukraine-launched missile over his region, but Russia’s defence ministry made no mention of the incident in its daily statement on destroyed air weapons. (Source: Reuters)

20 Aug 24. Russia says it advances in eastern Ukraine and regroups after incursion. Russia said on Tuesday its forces had taken control of what it described as the strategically important logistics hub of Niu-York in eastern Ukraine, part of Moscow’s grinding drive to capture the entire Donetsk region.

Even as Ukrainian troops seek to advance in Russia’s Kursk region after a surprise cross-border attack that began on Aug. 6, the fate of Niu-York – which Reuters could not independently confirm – is a reminder that Russian forces are still pressing on with their own offensive in eastern Ukraine. Russia separately announced the formation of new military groupings in Kursk and two other border regions as it tries to repel the incursion without diverting forces from front lines deep inside Ukraine.

Defence Minister Andrei Belousov said a new coordinating body had “already” begun working round the clock to liaise between regional authorities, troop commanders and the defence ministry.

But the timing of his announcement – a full two weeks after Ukrainian forces smashed through Russia’s western border – served to emphasise the delayed nature of Moscow’s response. He did not say why such smooth coordination had not been possible previously.

Ukraine’s top commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Tuesday his forces had pushed 28-35 km (17-22 miles) into Russia, capturing 1,263 sq km (488 square miles) of territory including 93 settlements – figures that Reuters could not independently confirm. Russia has vowed to crush the incursion, but has shown no sign it is close to expelling Ukrainian forces.

The operation has boosted Ukrainian morale, and Kyiv believes the seizure of territory and Russian prisoners has strengthened its hand in any potential negotiation. (Source: Reuters)

19 Aug 24. Sweden’s upgraded PbV 302 to strengthen Ukraine.

Ukraine enhances military capability with Swedish personnel carrier.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has secured the delivery of an upgraded Swedish personnel carrier to bolster its defence capabilities.

The document includes detailed information on the manufacturers and suppliers and their products, along with contact details, to inform your purchasing decision.

The PbV 302 is set to join the ranks of Ukraine’s armed forces. This comes amidst Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces have advanced up to 30km and taken control of areas, including several villages and the town of Sudzha.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has officially approved the acquisition of the Swedish PbV 302 armoured personnel carrier, developed by the Swedish manufacturer Hägglund & Söner, to enhance its military arsenal.

The PbV 302, which served the Swedish army until 2014 and saw action in Bosnia and Kosovo, has off-road capabilities. With a weight in excess of 13 tons, the vehicle’s wide tracks distribute its weight, allowing it to traverse rugged terrains, including swamps and sandy environments. This capability is for Ukraine’s diverse and challenging battlefield conditions.

One of the PbV 302’s features is its armament. The vehicle is equipped with a 20-mm Hispano-Suiza automatic cannon, a weapon initially designed for aircraft but now repurposed for ground combat. This cannon enhances the PbV 302’s offensive capabilities, providing Ukrainian forces with increased firepower on the field.

The PbV 302 is fortified with armour systems in terms of protection. It features an internal anti-splinter lining and external ceramic elements. The frontal armour is designed to withstand impacts from 20 mm projectiles, enhancing the vehicle’s defensive attributes.

The PbV 302 is powered by a 270-horsepower diesel engine, enabling it to reach speeds exceeding 60km per hour. This ensures the vehicle can manoeuvre in various operational scenarios, from assaults to defensive positions. As Ukraine continues to bolster its defence systems, the arrival of this Swedish armoured personnel carrier emphasises European countries’ continued efforts to enhance their combat readiness. (Source: army-technology.com)

20 Aug 24. Czechs will buy ammunition for Ukraine with income from frozen Russian assets. The Czech Republic will use some of the interest earned on Russian assets frozen in the European Union to buy hundreds of thousands more artillery shells for Ukraine, the Czech Defence Ministry said on Tuesday. Western countries blocked about $300bn worth of sovereign Russian assets after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. EU countries are taking the interest earned on the assets -which include bonds and other securities bought by the Russian central bank – and putting it into an EU fund to aid Ukraine as it fights the Russian invasion.

EU governments agreed in June to use 1.4bn euros ($1.5bn) in profits generated by the assets to buy arms and pay for other kinds of support to Ukraine.

The Czech Defence Ministry said some of that money would be used for an effort it has been leading to buy artillery ammunition for Ukraine around the world, funded by Western partners.

“Thanks to proceeds from frozen Russian finances, released by the European Union, we will be able to supply several hundreds of thousands of large-calibre ammunition rounds to Ukraine,” minister Jana Cernochova said.

The ministry did not give further details but said deliveries would be made “in the coming months”, and thus would soon have an impact on the battlefield.

There was no immediate reaction to the Czech announcement from Moscow.

In July, the Kremlin called the plan to use interest earned on frozen Russian assets to fund military aid to Ukraine “theft” and said it would take legal action against anyone involved in the decision.

Ukraine received its first consignment of 50,000-100,000 shells under the initiative in June and deliveries continue every month, Czech officials have said.

Aside from the newly available funds, the Czechs had collected about 1.7 bn euros from western partners by May, which the government said was enough to buy half a m shells. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)

19 Aug 24. Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary: Austin Has Discussed Ukraine’s Actions in Russia With Ukrainian Counterpart. U.S. support to Ukraine will continue as Ukrainian service members drive into Russia, said Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh today.

Singh told the news media at the Pentagon that Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III has spoken with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. The two men “discussed ongoing support from allies and partners in helping meet Ukraine’s urgent military requirements,” she said. “The secretary reiterated U.S. support for Ukraine and that the two will continue to remain in close contact.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave a description of the objectives of the Ukrainian counteroffensive into Kursk on Saturday. “There have already been several reports by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi about the frontline situation and our operation in the Kursk region” of Russia, Zelenskyy said in his daily report to the Ukrainian people. “We see that the occupier is suffering losses, and this is helpful — very helpful — for our defense. It is about destroying the logistics of the Russian army and draining their reserves.”

Ukrainian forces must inflict maximum damage on all Russian positions, he said. The Ukrainian forces are tenaciously defending the Donbas region even as they advance in Kursk. “We are eliminating the Russian military presence in the area of our operations there and replenishing ‘the exchange fund’ for our state,” he said.

The “exchange fund’ is replenishing units with personnel, ammunition and supplies.

The United States will continue to support Ukraine in its fight against the Russians, Singh said. “Our main avenue of supporting Ukraine is through security assistance,” she said. “Presidential drawdown packages are going to continue.”

Singh said there has been movement of Russian forces in Ukraine, “but I couldn’t tell you exactly where they’re pulling their forces from.”

Zelenskyy said Ukraine will fortify the area in Kursk and use it as a buffer zone to prevent Russian forces from firing into Ukraine. In his Aug. 18 report, he said Ukrainian forces have achieved “good and much-needed results” in destroying Russian equipment.

“All this is more than just defense for Ukraine. It is now our primary task in defensive operations overall to destroy as much Russian war potential as possible and conduct maximum counteroffensive actions,” he said. “This includes creating a buffer zone on the aggressor’s territory: our operation in the Kursk region.”

Zelenskyy took an expansive view of actions against Russia. “Everything that inflicts losses on the Russian army, Russian state, their military industrial complex, and their economy helps prevent the war from expanding and brings us closer to a just end to this aggression, a just peace for Ukraine,” he said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

20 Aug 24. Russia Deploying Fiber-Optic Drones In Kursk. Ukraine’s recent advance into Russia’s Kursk region was marked by an intense electronic warfare campaign that successfully disrupted Russian reconnaissance drones and neutralized FPV (First-Person View) units. However, Russia has responded by deploying advanced drones guided by fiber optics, a technology that is impervious to traditional radio jamming techniques. This marks the first known use of such weapons in combat.

The fiber-optic control method offers advantages on the battlefield. Unlike conventional drones that rely on radio signals, these drones are immune to electronic interference, making them nearly impossible to disable with existing countermeasures. The continuous and high-quality video feed provided by the fiber-optic cable ensures precision strikes, as it eliminates the “radio horizon” issue, where signal loss can occur in the final moments of a drone’s flight. With cable lengths of up to 20 kilometers, and lighter options available for shorter distances, these drones possibly provide Russia with a new tool to challenge Ukraine’s electronic warfare superiority. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

20 Aug 24. Germany affirms Ukraine military aid amid budget maneuvering. Amid murmurings in Berlin that the country may curtail its military support for Ukraine, the German government on Monday confirmed a long list of scheduled deliveries for Kyiv, including dozens of armored vehicles, rocket launchers and tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition.

Among the equipment the government reaffirmed it would send by the end of the year are two additional IRIS-T SLM air defense systems; two IRIS-T SLS launchers; ten Gepard anti-aircraft guns; 16 Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers as well as Zuzana and RCH 155 self-propelled howitzers; combat drones; several thousand rounds of artillery ammunition and ammunition for armored vehicles, and a batch of 30 Leopard 1A5 tanks.

Germany said it would also train 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers this year and next.

Following the leak of a letter by German Finance Minister Christian Lindner over the weekend, media have been speculating about whether the country will be able to keep up its high level of support for Ukraine in 2025. In the missive dated Aug. 5, Lindner wrote that “new measures” should only be taken once funding is secured under a new budget – a longstanding contentious issue within the coalition government.

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper first reported on the letter, which was also seen by the German press agency dpa.

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported on Saturday about a supposed moratorium declared by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on new weapons deliveries to Ukraine beyond what has already been authorized, citing internal documents. This aligns with Lindner’s internal request to respect spending caps, which also cover defense.

Germany is Europe’s most significant backer of Kyiv’s defensive fight against Russian invaders, providing over €14 bn ($15.5 bn) in support – mostly military – between when the invasion started in February 2022 and the end of June 2024, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy’s public tracker.

Speaking at a press conference on Monday, government spokesperson Wolfgang Büchner countered journalists’ questions on the FAZ reporting, saying that “absolutely nothing will change in our commitment and decisiveness in supporting Ukraine.” Suggesting otherwise would be “almost defamatory,” he said.

It is true, however, that Berlin is clamoring to balance a new federal budget that has been hotly contested for months. Currently, €4 bn are slated for supporting Ukraine next year, down from €7.5 bn in 2024. This year’s number was raised from an original value of €4 bn by the Bundestag, the German parliament.

Instead of taking Ukraine aid money from Germany’s budget, it would in the future come from dividends on frozen Russian assets, the German finance minister said in his internal letter. The G7 countries have vowed to use the vast frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s survival, including furnishing a $50 bn loan to the country.

Meanwhile, already-authorized German weapons deliveries will continue in 2025, Büchner confirmed on Monday. In the next calendar year, “more than 20 PzH 2000, Zuzana and RCH 155 howitzers, 20 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 37 Leopard 1A5s, five Gepards, three IRIS-T SLM systems and also three IRIS-T SLS systems, as well as two Skynex air defense systems and thousands of rounds of ammunition” will be transferred to Ukraine, he said. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Defense News)

21 Aug 24. “Russia’s size and improving prowess should keep European defence planners up at night and remind them that they have an enduring strategic stake in Ukraine’s success”. That’s the view of the authors of RUSI’s latest commentary.

Decoding Kursk: Is the End in Sight in Ukraine?

In the article, the authors draw on insights gained from their latest visit to Ukraine in August 2024 to outline the importance of the Kursk incursion in the Russo-Ukrainian war. The authours include:

** Dr Karin von Hippel, RUSI Director-General,

** Dr Greg Mills, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow

** Alfonso Prat Gay, Former Minister of Finance of Argentina

** Juan-Carlos Pinzon, Former Minister of Defence of Colombia

The authors argue that the war “is producing, pound for pound, possibly the most effective armed forces in the world in Ukraine – even if not the best-equipped or trained – and certainly the most resourceful, innovative and now with significant battlefield experience.”

They also argue that:

** “Now is not the time to micro-manage the risk in Ukraine’s actions, hold back supplies or maintain strict caveats on the use of equipment, especially against military targets in Russian territory, out of fear that Putin might escalate, perhaps with a nuclear option.”

** “It is still too early to say if Kyiv’s surprise military incursion into Kursk Oblast, launched in early August, was the right approach, although it has succeeded in buoying Ukrainian troops and civilians alike.”

** “The priority remains keeping money and arms flowing from the West, while talking peace, a balancing act so far carefully managed by Zelenskyy, with seemingly inexhaustible energy.”

** “Amid the ongoing Kursk intervention, leaving out the likelihood of Putin’s departure and Russian economic implosion, four peace scenarios are imaginable.”

o “The first would be Ukraine’s ejection of Russia, through military means or negotiations. This requires the on-time delivery of weapons promised by the West and required by Kyiv, and, for its part, Ukraine to turn out more trained and refreshed brigades.”

o “The second would be for Kyiv to negotiate from a position of weakness.”

o “A third would be to meet Putin’s demands, and not strive for Ukrainian security guarantees through NATO (or EU) membership. But this presumes that Putin abandons what former Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko, who survived dioxin poisoning by Russian agents, describes to us as an ‘imperial project to recreate the Russian empire, an ambition of Putin’s which is impossible without including Ukraine’.”

o “The fourth, wild-card, possibility is that an outsider – Donald Trump (should he win the US election) or even President Xi perhaps – threatens Russia and Ukraine respectively with an escalation and a reduction of support to Kyiv in order to cut a deal.”

Concluding, the authors note that “while militarily fraught with risk, Kursk has successfully changed the narrative of the war. Whether that is in itself enough to keep the taps of international support turned on through and beyond the November 2024 US election will depend on Kyiv holding its ground to use as a bargaining chip in negotiations.”

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/decoding-kursk-end-sight-ukraine (Source: RUSI)

20 Aug 24. Russia Deploys ‘Space Troops’ to Defend Kursk. Russian President Vladimir Putin has deployed a regiment of Russia’s Aerospace Forces to the Kursk region, signaling possible manpower shortages amid a Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory. The development was first reported by the independent investigative outlet Important Stories.

The Aerospace Forces, sometimes referred to as Russia’s “space troops,” were originally formed for specialized tasks including the operation of spaceports and radar stations, particularly those related to Russia’s nuclear deterrent. However, due to Ukraine’s cross-border raids these forces have been repurposed into a temporary motorized rifle regiment tasked with defending Russian soil—a role far removed from their original mandate.

According to a report, this regiment includes personnel from various backgrounds such as engineers, mechanics, and servicemen from a Russian spaceport, alongside logistics and security staff. Many of these individuals were previously stationed at facilities in the Voronezh region.

Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk has been unexpectedly successful, with Ukrainian forces reportedly seizing control of approximately 1,150 square kilometers (444 square miles) and 82 settlements within Russian territory. This is the first time since World War II that foreign forces have captured such a significant amount of Russian land. The Ukrainian military’s swift advance has outpaced Russian efforts to reclaim territory in Ukraine, raising concerns within Moscow about the vulnerability of its borders.

The deployment of Aerospace Forces to the front lines in Kursk has puzzled some within the Russian military community. The Fighterbomber Telegram channel, which is linked to the Russian Aerospace Forces, expressed confusion over the decision, questioning the effectiveness of deploying a unit that lacks the conventional firepower typically required for ground combat. Reports suggest that members of this regiment have been forced to request more substantial weapons, beyond standard-issue Kalashnikov rifles, from other units.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that Russia has likely moved more than 5,000 personnel to Kursk since the start of the Ukrainian incursion. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

20 Aug 24. Ukrainians flee as Russia bears down on key eastern city.

Ukrainian civilians are fleeing the key eastern city of Pokrovsk where Russia’s grinding advance in the Donetsk region is gathering momentum.

Local authorities said Moscow’s forces were advancing so quickly that families are now under orders to leave the city, which is still home to 53,000, and nearby towns and villages. People of all ages boarded trains and buses with the belongings they could carry and small children in their arms. Some wept as they waited to depart, while soldiers helped the elderly and disabled. Ukrainian forces said they were coming under heavy Russian attack on Tuesday morning around Pokrovsk, which is one of Kyiv’s main defensive strongholds and a key logistics hub in the Donetsk region.

“It was terrifyingly scary,” Natalya Ivaniuk said as she fled her village, which is now less than six miles from the frontline, with her two young daughters. “We barely got out,” she added. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

20 Aug 24. Belarus says it sends more troops, aircraft, armoury to border with Ukraine. Belarus said on Monday it had sent aircraft, air defence forces and armoury to its border with Ukraine, a day after President Alexander Lukashenko said he had deployed nearly a third of his country’s armed forces to the region.

“The group has been significantly increased, and at the moment they are on duty at the southern borders of our country,” Commander of the Air Force and Air Defence of Belarus Maj. General Andrei Lukyanovich, told the state-owned CTV broadcaster.

Aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, and radio-technical troops were deployed to the border, Lukyanovich said, according to a transcript provided on CTV’s website.

Days after Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s territory, Lukashenko – a loyal ally of President Vladimir Putin – accused Kyiv of aggressive policies and of sending more than 120,000 of its troops to the border with Belarus.

Ukraine said it had not seen an increase in Belarusian troops on the border and called Lukashenko’s statements “rhetoric” aimed at pleasing Putin, who used Belarus as a launchpad to start his invasion in Ukraine in February 2022.

Moscow calls the war a “special military operation.” Kyiv and its allies say it is an unprovoked imperialistic attempt at a land grab, which has since killed thousands and displaced ms of Ukrainians, turning cities into rubble.

Lukyanovich told CTV that Belarus was also expecting more military aircraft deliveries from Moscow this year and that Minsk was putting its efforts into strengthening its anti-drone systems.

“The fact that drones are the plague of the 21st century is obvious,” Lukyanovich said. “This is a headache, which, I think, we will find the means to counter.” (Source: Reuters)

19 Aug 24. Zelensky reveals aim of Kursk invasion. Volodymyr Zelensky has revealed for the first time that the objective of Ukraine’s operation in Kursk is to create a buffer zone.

The Ukrainian President had previously said that the purpose of the invasion, which was launched on Aug 6, was to protect communities in the bordering Sumy region from constant shelling.

“It is now our primary task in defensive operations overall – to destroy as much Russian war potential as possible and conduct maximum counteroffensive actions,” Mr Zelensky said on Sunday evening.

“This includes creating a buffer zone on the aggressor’s territory – our operation in the Kursk region.”

Ukraine’s armed forces claimed on Sunday it had destroyed a key bridge over the Seym River in Kursk, which is used to supply Russian forces. The bridge was the second attacked by Ukraine since Friday. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

19 Aug 24. Starmer accused of weakening support for Ukraine. Sir Keir Starmer is under fresh pressure to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow missiles after Volodymyr Zelensky said British support was “slowing down”.

The Ukrainian president complained that British aid to Kyiv had begun to wane as his forces continued their unprecedented incursion into Russian territory in the Kursk region.

“Unfortunately, the situation has slowed down recently,” Mr Zelensky said, referring to UK military assistance.

Sir Keir has upheld a Conservative ban on using UK-made Storm Shadows to strike targets deep inside Russia, amid concerns it could lead to escalation with nuclear-armed Moscow.

“We will discuss how to fix this because long-range capabilities are vital for us. The whole world sees how effective Ukrainians are – how our entire nation defends its independence,” said Mr Zelensky.

It came as four former Conservative defence secretaries called on No 10 to do more to support Ukraine, with some demanding Kyiv be allowed to use Storm Shadows in the Russian offensive.

Mr Zelensky said that it was “crucial” for Britain, France and the US to “remove barriers that hinder us from weakening Russian positions”.

“Long-range capabilities are the answer to the most critical strategic questions of this war,” he added. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

18 Aug 24. Russia Claims First Destruction of Ukrainian M270 ATACMS Missile Launcher with Iskander-M Missile.

Russian forces have reportedly destroyed the first Ukrainian M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) using an Iskander-M mobile ballistic missile near the town of Bezdryk in the Sumy region. The M270 was allegedly targeted while supporting Ukrainian military operations in the Kursk region. This incident, if confirmed, would mark the first loss of an M270 system in Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia.

According to open-source information, Ukraine has received a total of 34 M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) from Western allies. The United Kingdom delivered 14 M270B1 units, with Norway contributing 11 M270 units. Germany provided five M270 “MARS” systems, and Italy delivered two M270A1 as well as France. These systems, delivered between July and October 2022, have significantly enhanced Ukraine’s ability to conduct precision strikes against Russian targets..

The M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) is a rocket/missile artillery launcher vehicle developed by the United States and has been in service with various countries since the early 1980s. It plays a crucial role in providing long-range fire support for ground forces. The M270 is mounted on a tracked vehicle chassis, which gives it significant mobility across various terrains, including rugged and off-road environments. This mobility allows the system to be quickly deployed and repositioned as needed during military operations, making it a flexible and responsive asset on the battlefield.

The M270 can carry and fire twelve 227mm rockets or two Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles. These rockets and missiles can be fitted with different types of warheads, including high-explosive, cluster munitions, or guided munitions like the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS). The range of the 227mm rockets varies depending on the type of munition, with unguided rockets having a range of up to 32 kilometers (about 20 miles), while the guided GMLRS rockets can strike targets at distances up to 70-80 kilometers (around 43-50 miles). The ATACMS missile, on the other hand, extends the system’s reach significantly, with a range of up to 300 kilometers (approximately 186 miles), allowing for deep strikes against critical targets far behind enemy lines.

Recently, Ukrainian forces have effectively employed ATACMS missiles launched from the M270 platform to carry out precision strikes against high-value Russian targets. On July 16, 2024, the Ukrainian armed forces achieved a significant success by using American ATACMS missiles to destroy a Russian S-300V air defense missile system battery and its critical 9S32 guidance radar near Mariupol. This strike demonstrated the effectiveness of the M270 in delivering long-range, precision attacks that can disrupt and degrade enemy air defense capabilities, making it harder for Russian forces to defend against subsequent aerial and missile attacks.

The Iskander-M mobile missile launcher vehicle used in the strike is known for its precision and destructive power. This mobile short-range ballistic missile system can strike targets up to 500 kilometers away and is designed to evade missile defenses. It can carry various warheads, including high-explosive, cluster munitions, and potentially nuclear payloads. The use of such an advanced missile to target the M270 suggests the high value Russia places on neutralizing these powerful artillery systems, which have been effective in disrupting Russian military operations.

The loss of the M270 MLRS is a significant blow to Ukraine’s military capabilities, as the system plays a crucial role in long-range artillery operations. This incident also highlights the increasing sophistication of weaponry being deployed in the conflict and raises concerns about the vulnerability of high-value military assets in an environment where advanced missile systems and drone surveillance are becoming more prevalent. The situation remains fluid, and the full implications of this strike for the broader conflict are yet to be determined.

For Russian forces, targeting M270 or HIMARS systems capable of firing ATACMS missiles is critically important because these systems provide Ukraine with powerful long-range strike capabilities. The M270 and HIMARS can launch precision-guided missiles, including ATACMS, which have a range of up to 300 kilometers. This allows Ukrainian forces to hit high-value targets deep within Russian-controlled territory, such as command centers, air defense systems, and logistics hubs. By destroying these platforms, Russia aims to degrade Ukraine’s ability to conduct these long-range, precision strikes, thereby reducing the threat to its strategic assets and improving its own defensive posture on the battlefield. (Source: Google/https://armyrecognition.com/)

17 Aug 24. Ukraine ‘collapsed secret peace talks’ by invading Russia. The Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region of Russia derailed secret peace-talks between Moscow and Kyiv, it has been reported.

Russia and Kyiv were set to hold indirect talks in Doha, Qatar on an agreement to stop attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure, according to the Washington Post.

Some officials involved in the negotiations reportedly hoped the talks would lead to a total ceasefire that would end the war.

However, after Ukraine’s shock cross-border assault on August 6, Russian officials postponed sending a delegation to Qatar, with one anonymous diplomat quoted as saying that Russia “didn’t call off the talks, they said give us time”.

The diplomat added that Ukraine wanted to send representatives to Doha anyway, but Qatar declined because it did not see a one-sided summit as beneficial.

Russia has hit Ukraine’s power grid with a barrage of cruise missiles and drone strikes over the past year. Ukraine, meanwhile, has conducted a campaign of long-range drone attacks on Russian oil facilities that has reduced Moscow’s oil refining capacity by an estimated 15 per cent.

(Source: Daily Telegraph)

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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.

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