NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Aug 18.

Ukraine is blowing up bridges to consolidate its positions in Russia’s border region of Kursk as the Kremlin struggles to muster the forces needed to push them out. Ukrainian force chief Mykola Oleshchuk published two videos over the weekend of air strikes destroying two bridges across the river Seym near the towns of Glushkovo and Zvannoe, which analysts say will hamper Russian military logistics and allow Ukraine to consolidate its positions. “The Air Force continues to deprive the enemy of its logistical capabilities with precise air strikes, which significantly affects the course of hostilities,” Oleshchuk wrote on Telegram in a post that includes video footage of the bridges being blown up. He added that the strikes also targeted weapons depots, logistics hubs and Russian supply lines. Russia’s defence ministry said on Saturday it was battling Ukrainian forces in four villages about 40km north-west of Sudzha, the town held by Ukraine, as well as around Cherkasskoe Porechnoe, about 15km north of Sudzha. The Ukrainian side has imposed media silence on the operation and is not reporting real-time battlefield action. It has, however, claimed control over Sudzha, where it set up a military office and floated the possibility of opening up humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians.(Source: FT.com)
Nearly two weeks after Ukrainian troops smashed through thin border defences and stormed into Russia’s Kursk region, Moscow has still not assembled the kind of overwhelming force needed to repel Kyiv’s incursion. It has instead cobbled together units from around the country and from less active parts of the Ukrainian front, while deploying young conscripts performing their obligatory military service. “People are horrified. We are overwhelmed with requests and can barely keep up,” said Ivan Chuvilayev, a representative of Go by the Forest, a Russian NGO helping citizens to avoid conscription. In recent days, the organisation has been inundated with pleas for help from conscripts and their families as reports of young soldiers sent to Kursk emerged as Ukraine continued to advance. “It started in some regions, but now it is clear that conscripts are being mobilised from all over Russia,” said Chuvilayev. (Source: FT.com)

Aug 17.

Ukraine has made an impassioned plea to Sir Keir Starmer to allow it to use British-donated Storm Shadow missiles to strike Russian territory, insisting the weapons will “turn the tide of war”. Kyiv’s force would use the long-range missiles against Russian airfields, command posts and supply lines, an advisor to Volodymyr Zelensky has told TheTelegraph. Mykhailo Podolyak said if Britain loosened restrictions on the use of the weapons, it would allow Ukraine to increase the intensity of strikes against key targets deep inside Russia that could speed up the end of the war. It is the most forthright appeal for the British to grant permission for strikes on Russian soil since the British prime minister spurned Mr Zelensky’s request last month during meetings in London. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

Aug 16.

Russian troops have been sent to Kursk with “greater force” after initial “disarray and disorganisation” in the immediate aftermath of Kyiv’s incursion, the UK Ministry of Defence said on Friday. Moscow’s troops were “not prepared” for the incursion but ten days on, more defensive lines have been organised along the Russian border region. The MoD added that Ukrainian forces have penetrated the Russian border region “to a depth ranging between 10-25km over a frontage of approximately 40km”. It emerged on Friday that Moscow had begun the transfer of “several thousand” troops from Ukraine to defend its own territory in Kursk. But this does not appear to have impacted Russia’s advances in eastern Ukraine, where Moscow’s troops are advancing “at pace”. Russia has already claimed control of Sergiivka, a village located around nine miles away from the Ukrainian-held logistics hub of Pokrovsk. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin said on Friday there was a high probability of an armed provocation from neighbouring Ukraine and that the situation at their shared border “remains tense”, the state-run Belta news agency reported.Khrenin’s comments came more than a week after Ukraine sent thousands of troops across Russia’s western border in a surprise incursion. “Given the presence of Ukrainian armed formations in the border areas, there is a high probability of preparing and carrying out armed provocations on our territory, as well as high-profile actions, including with the involvement of Belarusian nationalist formations,” Khrenin said, according to Belta. The Ukrainian military did not immediately reply to a written request for comment. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has positioned himself as a main backer of Vladimir Putin since the Russian president ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, part of which was staged from Belarusian soil. Lukashenko said on Thursday that Ukraine could attack Belarus and widen the war. On Saturday Belarus said it was sending troops to reinforce its southern border with Ukraine after accusing Kyiv of violating its airspace with drones. Kyiv said it had seen no signs of a Belarusian buildup and made no official comment on the accusations of airspace violations.(Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)
Ukrainian authorities have warned residents near the eastern frontline to evacuate before the arrival of Russian troops, as Moscow presses ahead with its own offensive 10 days into Kyiv’s cross-border incursion. While Ukrainian troops are attempting to gain more Russian territory in Kursk region, where they claim to control around 1,150 sq km, Russia has made steady gains in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. Serhiy Dobriak, head of the military administration in the city of Pokrovsk, said people should leave while there was time as the Russian forces had advanced within 10km of the city. “Don’t delay!” Dobriak said on Telegram. “The enemy ruthlessly hits critical infrastructure and residential neighbourhoods.” (Source: FT.com)
Russia: Ongoing war will undermine efforts towards greater economic diversification. Reports from 15 August indicate that the Russian government has finalised its national projects programme, which aims to ensure the country’s sustainable development and economic sovereignty. The plan, outlined by President Vladimir Putin during his latest presidential campaign, envisions an investment of RUB 2.7 trillion (USD 30 billion) to boost eight key areas, including small and medium-sized businesses, the financial market, competition, labour productivity, investment activity, the carbon agenda and technologies. The programme likely underscores the Kremlin’s continued efforts to diversify Russia’s economy, which is heavily reliant on the hydrocarbon sector. Economic reforms have become more pressing since the start of the war in Ukraine, as Western sanctions have increasingly isolated the country from the global economy. This has exacerbated shortages of key Western-produced items in various industrial sectors while restricting access to foreign capital. Although Russia’s overall economic indicators remain positive, we assess that sanctions, combined with the country’s structural economic challenges (such as labour shortages and the ongoing war) will likely impede Moscow’s efforts to implement its ambitious economic diversification programme.

Aug 15.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

STRIKES: Russian forces continue to launch long-range drone and missile strikes across Ukraine; Sumy, Kharkiv and Poltava oblasts will all likely remain high-priority targets in a bid to disrupt Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk oblast
SABOTAGE: The Wall Street Journal claims that President Volodymyr Zelensky allegedly initially provided approval for Ukrainian forces to attack the Nord Stream pipelines in 2022; however, we cannot confirm these claims amid an ongoing German investigation into the sabotage
MOBILISATION: Regional Russian officials are likely meeting only two-thirds of their recruitment quotas; if growing financial incentives do not significantly increase recruitment, risks of a second round of mobilisation will moderately increase
FORECAST: Ukraine claims to have seized 1,000 sq km of Russian territory in Kursk oblast; Ukrainian advances continue amid Russian efforts to stabilise the front and build new fortifications
BAKHMUT: Despite Russian assaults continuing across the Toretsk direction (Donetsk oblast), geolocated footage has confirmed that Ukrainian forces retook several marginal positions. Ukrainian forces retook positions in Zalizne (south-east of Toretsk) on 10 August and made a more notable advance in central Niu York (south-west of Toretsk) on 11 August. Nevertheless, Russian forces have also continued to make slow gains in the area, though the fact that the Ukrainians are counter-attacking does indicate that frontline areas remain highly contested.
DONETSK: The Russian offensive tempo has not decreased towards Porkovsk, despite wider reinforcements towards Kursk. On 14 August, the Ukrainian General Staff reported 37 combat clashes in that direction over the past 24 hours. Geolocated footage from 13 and 14 August shows that Russian forces advanced north of Novoselivka Persha and into northwestern Zhelanne, both south-east of Pokrovsk. Russian forces are steadily expanding their salient running north-west from Avdiivka towards Pokrovsk. Russian forces are likely prioritising stabilising the flanks and expanding their control to the north and south of the salient to facilitate further advances westwards.
KHARKIV: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: On 13 August, Russian forces launched two Iskandr-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and 38 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian forces succeeded in destroying 30 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that an Iskandr missile hit Myrhorod Air Base in Poltava oblast. The Sumy oblast authorities reported that an unspecified air missile hit infrastructure facilities in Sumy city (Sumy oblast). Sumy oblast will likely remain a high-priority target for Russian long-range strikes given it plays a central role in providing logistical support for Ukraine’s Kursk offensive.
STRIKES: On 14 August, Russia launched two Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles and 23 Shahed drones. Ukrainian forces destroyed 17 drones over Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia and Zhytomyr oblasts. The Ukrainian authorities reported damage to infrastructure facilities in Zhytomyr oblast. The Ukrainian regional authorities reported that later in the evening of 14 August, a Russian ballistic missile targeted port infrastructure in Odesa oblast.
STRIKES: Overnight on 14-15 August, Russia launched three Kh-59 missiles and 29 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted all drones over Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
STRIKES: Meanwhile, early on 13 August, Ukraine’s Air Force reportedly struck a Russian command post in Tetkino, north of the frontline in Kursk, using a Su-27 aircraft. At the same time, last week, a Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces have deployed a significant number of air defence systems to protect Ukrainian troops from Russian strikes. The milblogger also claimed that this has complicated Russian airstrikes and drone attacks. We assess that given Ukraine’s air defence capabilities remain stretched, the deployment of a significant number of such systems to the frontline in Kursk has likely required redeploying systems from other parts of Ukraine. This could render those areas more vulnerable to Russian long-range strikes. However, we cannot confirm any potential air defence redeployments at this time.
STRIKES: Ukraine’s General Staff reported that Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) and Security Service (SBU) co-ordinated a large-scale drone attack against Russia overnight on 13-14 August. The attack targeted four airfields in Russia’s Kursk, Nizhny Novgorod and Voronezh oblasts. Russia’s MoD claimed that air defences thwarted 117 drones during the attack. Satellite imagery posted on 14 August confirms damage to Borisoglebsk airfield in Voronezh oblast, which reportedly houses Russian Su-23, Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft. Other targeted airfields include Baltimore (Voronezh oblast), Khalino (Kursk oblast) and Savasleyka (Nizhny Novgorod oblast). Ukrainska Pravda reported that the attack specifically targeted airfields that house aircraft carrying out glide bomb strikes, which we had previously assessed would remain a priority target for Ukrainian forces. The strike illustrates Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to degrade Russia’s ability to launch glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian positions along the frontline and in Kursk.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

SABOTAGE: The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on 14 August that several senior Ukrainian military officers and business people gathered in May 2022; as part of the meeting, attendants considered targeting the Nord Stream pipelines. According to the WSJ, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially approved the plan but attempted to halt the operation after the CIA learned of it. Despite this, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces at the time, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, allegedly continued with the operation. Zaluzhnyi, who is now Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, has denied any knowledge of the operation and stated that Ukraine’s armed forces were not authorised to conduct overseas operations. While we cannot confirm the WSJ’s claims, it is possible that his alleged decision to override Zelensky or otherwise continue with the operation contributed to the infighting that ultimately led to his removal (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 4 December 2023).
SABOTAGE: Earlier on 14 August, German media outlets reported that the Federal Prosecutor General obtained an arrest warrant against a Ukrainian national for his alleged involvement in the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in 2022. German investigators have long been convinced that a small team of Ukrainians rented a yacht called the ‘Andromeda’ from which they dived to place explosives on the pipelines. The Federal Intelligence Service (BND) reportedly received crucial information confirming this theory this spring.
SABOTAGE: While earlier reports tied the diving crew to a former Ukrainian colonel, Roman Chervinsky, the latest German research concludes that any such link to the Ukrainian state is unclear. Both Ukraine and Poland deny any involvement. Nevertheless, the WSJ report details that the people involved in the sabotage plot initially studied an older plan to blow up the pipeline drawn up by unspecified Ukrainian intelligence actors and Western experts after Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014. German military aid to Ukraine is highly unlikely to be impacted by this development, particularly if Zelensky maintains his lack of knowledge of the plot.
EVACUATION: On 14 August, Senior Ukrainian officials detailed plans to organise humanitarian assistance and evacuation corridors for civilians in Russia’s Kursk oblast. Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said that passageways for Russian civilians would be opened both towards Ukraine and deeper into Russia. Vereschuk said Ukraine has opened a hotline for Russian citizens in Kursk oblast who wish to receive humanitarian assistance or be evacuated to Ukraine.
EVACUATION: Reports indicate that the Russian authorities have evacuated nearly 200,000 people since Ukraine began its incursion into Kursk oblast on 6 August. The creation of the humanitarian hotline likely aims to offer an option for Russians dissatisfied with their government’s response to defect to Ukraine. For further analysis concerning the Kursk offensive, see FORECAST below.
MOBILISATION: Bloomberg reported on 13 August that regional Russian officials have only reached two-thirds of their recruiting quota. According to two unspecified insiders close to the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD), failure to meet the necessary number of recruits may force the government to consider a new wave of mobilisation. One person familiar with the matter said that officials may present such a mobilisation order as a rotation measure so frontline troops can rest’ another assessed that the government may order another round as soon as the end of this year. The first option would likely allow the authorities greater room to offset significant societal backlash, given such a move would be unpopular.
MOBILISATION: This failure to sufficiently recruit sufficient personnel comes despite the authorities in different regions offering financial incentives. In the capital Moscow, the introduction of a one-time signing bonus worth RUB 1.9 million (USD 21,200) has seemingly increased recruitment (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 1 August 2024). According to an independent Russian media report on 13 August, around 116 people signed contracts daily over the first nine days of this month. This is compared to several dozen people signing contracts each day in the first weeks of July. However, it remains unclear whether increasing financial incentives will prove sufficient to plug personnel recruitment shortfalls in the coming months. Ultimately, the Kremlin is highly likely to resist ordering a second round of mobilisation in 2024. However, we assess that Moscow could realistically agree to one if Russian forces fail to contain Ukraine’s Kursk offensive.

FORECAST

OFFENSIVES: Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has continued to expand in recent days, with Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reporting on 12 August that Ukrainian forces now control 386 square miles (1,000 sq km) of Russian territory in the region. Syrskyi also provided operational updates on 14 and 15 August, reporting that Ukrainian forces had continued to advance up to 1-2km and 0.5-1.5km in depth over the respective previous 24-hour periods. This indicates that Russian forces have not yet stabilised the frontline and contained the offensive. According to the General Staff, as of 15 August, Ukrainian forces control 82 unspecified settlements in the region, up from 74 claimed on 13 August. Notably, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on 15 August that Ukrainian forces control the town of Sudzha, the largest settlement in the Kursk area of operation.

Russian forces are undertaking large-scale defence-building efforts across Kursk oblast, indicating their concerns over further Ukrainian advances. Satellite imagery published by the space technology company Maxar Technologies on 12 August indicates newly constructed field fortifications along the key E38 highway which runs west-to-east from Kursk city to the Ukrainian border north of the current incursion. The Kursk Nuclear Power Plant is notably notated north of the E38 highway towards Kursk city. These newest fortifications are around 10 miles (17km) north of the furthest reported Ukrainian advance. Job adverts for trench diggers underscore that Russia’s defence-building efforts are likely to increase in the coming days as Moscow attempts to stabilise the front. Ukraine has threatened several critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) throughout Kursk oblast; Russian forces are proactively attempting to protect these routes.

Notably, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry stated on 13 August that Ukraine has no interest in seizing Russian territory but is rather seeking to protect its border regions from Russian attacks. Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets stated during a security meeting on 14 August that Ukraine had established a ‘buffer zone’, also sometimes referred to as a ‘sanitary zone’ in Kursk for self-defence. This is likely a reference to the ‘buffer zone’ that Moscow indicated as its objective during its Kharkiv offensive in March. Ukraine’s statement also aligns with the possibility that it will seek to exchange any territory it seizes in Kursk oblast for its own territory under Russian occupation. Russian President Vladimir Putin notably acknowledged this as a potential Ukrainian objective, stating on 12 August that Ukraine may be seeking to ‘improve its negotiating position in the future’.

Zelensky also stated on 13 August that as Ukrainian forces advance in Kursk, Ukraine’s ‘exchange fund’ is growing; this is possibly a reference to the exchange of territory or prisoners of war (POWs). Ukrainian sources claimed that they have taken hundreds of Russian POWs since the beginning of the operation, with Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reporting on 15 August that its special forces had taken 102 Russian prisoners in a single operation. We cannot confirm this, but, if the claim is accurate, it would represent a notably large surrender of Russian forces. It would also likely reflect Russia’s poor command and control (C2) over its response to the incursion. Putin appointed Russian Presidential Aide Alexei Dyumin to oversee the ongoing ‘counter-terrorism operation’ in Kursk on 12 August, ensuring Kremlin oversight of the operation. However, it remains likely that the complex administrative response to the incursion, involving Federal Security Service (FSB), National Guard and military forces, is causing tangible C2 challenges on the ground. These challenges are likely undermining Russia’s ability to coordinate its defences effectively. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi confirmed on 15 August that a military command has now been established in Kursk to co-ordinate Ukrainian forces; this will be headed by General Eduard Moskalyov.

Reports indicate that Western weapons have been used in Ukraine’s Kursk offensive; however, the risk of direct Russian retaliation against the West will highly likely remain limited to existing trends and capabilities. Sky News reported on 15 August that British Challenger 2 main battle tanks have been deployed in Kursk, likely by the 82nd Air Assault Brigade which is known to be operating in the area. However, this has not been officially acknowledged. Ukraine is permitted to use British weapons inside Russia, with the notable exception of long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Russian pundits have alleged that the Kursk offensive is a British-controlled operation. The Kremlin has frequently sought to cast successful Ukrainian offensives as facilitated and controlled by NATO.

Russia’s options to retaliate against the incursion remain limited, though nuclear threats against the West will likely increase, particularly if Russian forces are unable to contain Ukraine’s advance. Hybrid threats will also remain credible, as we have previously assessed. Sabotage, assassination attempts, mis- and dis-information campaigns and wider espionage operations will highly likely continue across Europe as part of Russia’s efforts to deter further support for Ukraine.

While Russia’s direct military options to retaliate directly against the West remain limited, Moscow has already stepped up efforts to arm groups around the world that oppose Western interests in response to their support for Ukraine. Putin himself threatened in June to arm the West’s enemies with unspecified long-range missiles if Western countries authorise the use of their weaponry inside de jure Russian territory. However, this is already taking place. Following the US’s approval of limited strikes into Belgorod oblast following Russia’s March Kharkiv offensive, Moscow almost certainly stepped up efforts to arm the Houthis with missiles, only to pull out of the deal at the last minute in June following behind-closed-doors diplomacy with the US and Saudi Arabia. It remains possible that the large prisoner exchange with the West announced on 1 August played a role in this decision.

The Kursk offensive could realistically reinvigorate Russian efforts to arm the ‘West’s enemies’ in the coming months as an indirect response to the West’s tacit approval of the Kursk offensive. Iranian proxy groups, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, will likely remain foremost. That said, growing military co-operation between Russia and North Korea also underscores the potential for Russia to destabilise other flashpoint regions against the West’s interests.

Aug 14.

Germany-Ukraine: Nord Stream allegations are highly unlikely to impact Berlin’s military aid to Kyiv. Earlier on 14 August, German media outlets reported that the Federal Prosecutor General obtained an arrest warrant against a Ukrainian national for his alleged involvement in the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in 2022. German investigators have long been convinced that a small team of Ukrainians rented a yacht called the ‘Andromeda’ from which they dived to place explosives on the pipelines. The Federal Intelligence Service (BND) reportedly received crucial information confirming this theory this spring. While earlier reports tied the diving crew to a former Ukrainian colonel, Roman Chervinsky, the latest research concludes that any such link to the Ukrainian state is unclear. Both Ukraine and Poland deny any involvement. We assess that German military aid to Ukraine is highly unlikely to be impacted by this development. It will possibly add fuel to radical right-wing protests in parts of Saxony and Thuringia states (both Germany), where the risk of domestic unrest is already elevated ahead of state elections in September.
Ukraine: Credit rating downgrade is unlikely to degrade long-term borrowing prospects. On 13 August, the credit agency Fitch announced that it had lowered Ukraine’s credit rating from ‘C’ to ‘restricted default’. The downgrade comes after Ukraine entered a short-term default on 1 August amid its endeavours to finalise a deal with its commercial creditors to restructure its debt. The parties involved have reportedly reached a preliminary agreement, and a restructuring plan is likely to be formalised by 27 August. On 9 August, Ukraine’s finance ministry outlined the modalities of the exchange of old bonds for newly issued securities. Initial reports indicate that the deal envisions writing off the debt by 37% and restructuring the USD 23 bn debt under two types of securities. The IMF has reportedly approved Kyiv’s proposal, and a group of leading private debt holders has urged all commercial creditors to agree to the deal. As a result, we assess that Ukraine’s credit rating downgrade is unlikely to impact its long-term borrowing prospects significantly. However, the ongoing war will raise uncertainty over Kyiv’s ability to start re-imbursing its commercial creditors in 2025, when it is expected to start paying interest on one of its main bond series.

Aug 12.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

DONETSK: Russian command remains committed to pursuing grinding advances along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk line, despite efforts to counter Ukraine’s military incursion in Kursk oblast
NUCLEAR: The authorities extinguished a fire at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP); while both sides blame one another for the blaze, nuclear safety risks have not increased significantly
BELARUS: Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service (DPSU) has not observed any build-up of forces in south Belarus, despite the country claiming that drone attacks have precipitated the need for deployments along the Ukrainian border
FORECAST: The Ukrainian offensive in Kursk continues, albeit at a slower rate; it is likely entering a second phase aimed at exploiting the battlefield initiative after the initial breakthrough
BAKHMUT: Russian forces have been slowly advancing in the Toretsk direction, with geolocated footage published on 9-10 August indicating Russian progress into northern Druzhba (located east of Toretsk) as well as central Niu York (all Donetsk oblast). Meanwhile, geolocated footage from 9 August confirms that Russian forces marginally advanced in Kalynivka (north-east of Chasiv Yar). As assessed below (see FORECAST), the rate of Russian offensive operations on this key axis shows no signs of slowing despite pressure on Russia to prioritise defensive operations in Kursk oblast (Russia).
DONETSK: Russian command remains committed to pursuing grinding advances along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk line, despite efforts to counter Ukraine’s military incursion in Kursk oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on 11 August that nearly half of the clashes along the entire front took place in the Pokrovsk direction over the past 24 hours. Geolocated footage posted on 10 August shows Russian forces raising a flag within Nevelske (south-west of Adiivka and east of Pokrovsk). The extent of Russian advances likely indicates that the settlement is under Russian control. Additional footage from 9 August indicates recent Russian advances west of Novooleksandrivka and within Ivanivka, both east of Pokrovsk.
DONETSK: Meanwhile, Russian forces continued to make gains south-west of Donetsk City. Geolocated footage posted on 10 August shows progress in south-eastern and north-eastern Kostyantynivka, also south-west of Donetsk City. Footage from 11 August confirms further advances south-west of Vodyane, similarly located south-west of Donetsk City. Additional footage from 11 August shows Ukrainian forces repelling a Russian mechanised assault, roughly company-sized, south-east of Heorihivka. These latest Russian operations along the Donetsk line underscore the Russian command’s commitment to maintaining the current tempo of operations in the sector despite Ukraine’s ongoing operations in Kursk oblast.
KHARKIV: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Geolocated footage from 11 August shows recent Russian advances west of Novoselivke, located south-east of Kupiansk (Kharkiv oblast). Overall, the frontline remains stable along the Oskil-Kreminna axis.
SOUTHERN: Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) reported that it had conducted an amphibious raid on the Russian-occupied Kinburn Spit in the Black Sea on 9 August. According to the GUR, the raid killed around 30 Russian soldiers and destroyed six armoured vehicles. The GUR further claimed that the assault also targeted Russian fortifications around the Kinburn fortress, sea terminal and Suvorov monument. The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that its forces repelled the raid, killing 12 Ukrainian soldiers and destroying the two boats involved in the raid. The attack comes after a similar amphibious assault on the Trendra Spit (a sandbar extending westwards from the Russian-occupied Kherson oblast). While such raids are likely aimed at increasing pressure on Russian forces, they are unlikely to have a significant military impact.
STRIKES: Overnight on 8-9 August, Ukrainian forces reportedly intercepted all 27 Russian-launched Shahed-136/131 drones. The Ukrainian air defences were active in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Poltava and Sumy oblasts. Later, on 9 August, Russian forces launched a Kh-38ML missile, which reportedly struck a supermarket in Kostyantynivka (Donetsk oblast), killing at least 11 people.
STRIKES: Overnight on 10-11 August, Russian forces launched four North-Korean-provided Kn-23 ballistic missiles and 57 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted 53 drones over Cherkasy, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Rivne, Sumy, Vinnytsia and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. The ballistic missiles reportedly targeted the capital Kyiv (Kyiv oblast). However, Ukrainian officials claimed that none of the missiles hit Kyiv, though falling missile debris did damage a residential area in Brovary in Kyiv oblast. Regional authorities also reported that the attack damaged infrastructure facilities in Sumy oblast. In the meantime, Russian sources claimed that the strike damaged a Ukrainian military storage facility in Poltava (Poltava oblast).
STRIKES: Meanwhile, on 9 August, Ukrainian forces carried out a large-scale drone attack against Russia, likely to support its ongoing Kursk operation. Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) said that its air defences intercepted 75 drones targeting Belgorod and Lipetsk oblasts. According to an unnamed Ukrainian intelligence source quoted by the Kyiv Independent, the attack hit a storage facility housing 700 glide bombs located on a military airbase in Russia’s Lipetsk oblast. The Russian military authorities reported a fire at the military site, though without specifying the extent of the damage. Satellite imagery of the site shows large craters, likely indicating a large explosion which could have resulted from the destruction of the stored bombs. While the destruction of the ordinance has yet to be fully confirmed, bombs, particularly glide bombs, are likely high-priority targets for Ukrainian forces that seek to degrade Russia’s ability to use its air force to push back Ukrainian ground forces in Kursk. Kyiv’s continued efforts to degrade Russian glide bomb stocks will likely force Moscow to further disperse ammunition facilities, increasing Russia’s military logistical challenges.
STRIKES: On 10 August, Ukraine’s Navy spokesperson, Dmytro Pletenchuk, reported that Ukraine’s Navy and military intelligence (GUR) attacked and damaged a former Russian offshore gas platform in the Black Sea. Ukraine reportedly launched the attack on 9 August. Pletenchuk explained that Russian forces used the platform for GPS jamming aimed at disrupting civilian navigation, particularly along the grain corridor. On 10 August, Ukraine’s GUR reported a co-ordinated naval drone strike against a Russian “Tunets” KS-701 project high-speed patrol boat near Chornomorske in occupied Crimea. The attack was reportedly conducted overnight on 8-9 August.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

NUCLEAR: A fire broke out at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), but the governor of Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk oblast, Serhiy Lysak, confirmed earlier on 12 August that it has now been extinguished. Lysak said that radiation levels in the area were normal. On 11 August, Ukrainian officials accused Russian forces of having fired at the cooling towers of the ZNPP, causing the blaze. A Russian-installed spokesperson at the facility claimed on 12 August that a cooling tower had burned internally following a Ukrainian drone attack, though she stated that there was no risk of it collapsing.
NUCLEAR: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it was aware of an alleged drone attack on 11 August against a cooling tower at the ZNPP; it did not attribute blame to either side. According to the IAEA, the incident has not adversely impacted nuclear safety. It comes as Russian forces have reportedly begun to construct defensive lines near the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP, Kursk oblast, Russia) as Ukrainian troops advance further into the region (see FORECAST below).
NUCLEAR: It is a realistic possibility that Russia has accused Ukrainian forces of endangering nuclear safety at the ZNPP while taking actions to protect the KNPP from Ukrainian advancements to provoke fears of a major nuclear incident. The timing of the incident is notable, and could realistically reflect an attempt by Moscow to raise fears of escalation following the Kursk incursion; we have frequently assessed that the Kremlin resorts to nuclear threats (both direct and indirect) during military setbacks. Nevertheless, we assess that the likelihood of a major nuclear incident remains very low despite reported damage to a cooling tower at the ZNPP.
BELARUS: Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service (DPSU) reported on 11 August that it has not observed the deployment of additional Belarusian troops near the border despite the country claiming to have sent reinforcements. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka claimed on 10 August that Belarusian forces intercepted several drones from Ukraine the previous night and then ordered military reinforcements to Gomel and Mozyr, located in Gomel oblast, bordering Ukraine. Such reinforcements allegedly included Iskandar missile and Polonez multiple rocket launcher systems. Nevertheless, a Belarusian project monitoring military activity in the country has dismissed claims that any drones were detected on 9 August. Despite moderately elevated regional tensions, a renewed Russian or Belarusian offensive operation into northern Ukraine remains highly unlikely in the foreseeable future.
BUDGET: Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko disclosed on 11 August that delays in Western aid, particularly from the US, contributed to an increase of USD 12bn in military spending and Kyiv’s budget deficit. According to Marchenko, the slow disbursement of assistance will impact paying military salaries as money set aside for the end of 2024 was used to purchase necessary weapons and ammunition at the start of 2024. The minister called on Ukraine’s Western partners to expedite a loan worth USD 50 bn to finance military spending.
BUDGET: Marchenko assessed that this assistance would enable Ukraine to purchase military supplies and mitigate against a worsening financial situation that could scare international creditors. As such, the comments reflect that Kyiv will almost certainly remain reliant on Western military and financial assistance over the long term; delays in aid will negatively impact other budgetary priorities.

FORECAST

OFFENSIVES: In recent days, Ukraine’s offensive operation into Russia’s Kursk oblast has continued, albeit at a slower rate; Ukrainian forces have advanced as far as 17 miles (30km) from the international border. Ukraine has committed multiple brigades to the operation, which began on 6 August (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 8 August 2024). Ukraine is likely commencing the second phase of this operation which likely aims to exploit battlefield initiative after the initial breakthrough; however, it remains unclear whether Ukraine intends to hold the territory it has gained.

The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported on 11 August that its forces had engaged Ukrainian forces near the villages of Tolpino and Obshchy Kolodez (both Kursk oblast), located 15 miles (25km) and 17 miles (30km) from the international border respectively. Earlier claims by Russian sources on 8-9 August that Ukrainian forces had reached as far north as Kromskiye Byki, which is almost 19 miles (30km) north of the international border, remain unconfirmed. While we cannot confirm the furthest extent of Ukrainian operations, it remains likely that Ukrainian reconnaissance and spoiling forces are still penetrating Russian defences. Unconfirmed reports of small-scale cross-border Ukrainian raids into Belgorod oblast on 11 August could realistically further reflect Ukrainian efforts to exploit wider Russian vulnerabilities even outside of Kursk oblast, though these likely remain smaller, supplementary raids.

Russian sources have stated that small units have penetrated beyond the confirmed frontlines, but it remains highly unlikely that these elements are attempting to hold this territory. Such operations are highly likely aimed at using highly mobile forces (including armour) to circumvent Russian defences and disrupt the Russian response before rapidly withdrawing should Russian reinforcements arrive. This likely aims at providing sufficient cover for the bulk of Ukrainian forces to dig in and consolidate their positions closer to the international border, notably around the key town of Sudzha (Kursk oblast). It is clear that Ukrainian forces have sought to expand their control of the region surrounding the town, both to the north-west and south; they are likely consolidating this newly taken territory by digging in and establishing defensive positions.

Ukrainian forces have continued to leverage operational surprise and the battlefield initiative to interdict and disrupt the Russian response. Geolocated footage published on 9 August indicates that Ukrainian forces successfully struck a large convoy of Russian military vehicles, likely including 14 Ural and KAMAZ trucks carrying Russian reinforcements towards the frontline. The attack, which took place near Rylsk (Kursk oblast), located roughly 20 miles (32km) from the international border, likely involved HIMARS mobile rocket systems. The attack represents a significant failure of Russian operational security and adherence to doctrine this close to enemy action; Russian doctrine expressly forbids travelling in convoys to avoid precisely this sort of loss. While we cannot confirm precisely what occurred, this is likely an example of command and control (C2) challenges and/or a panicked response from Russia. Pressure to reinforce the frontline likely led Russian commanders to give extremely dangerous and risky orders. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continue to launch longer-range drone strikes against Russian logistical assets in a bid to further undermine Russia’s response, such as the highly notable strike against the Lipetsk military airbase (see STRIKES above).

Russian forces have been deploying to the Kursk frontline in a bid to contain the Ukrainian offensive amid unconfirmed reports of Russian counter-attacks and redeployments seemingly slowing Ukraine’s rate of advance. An Increasing number of reports from 9 August onwards indicate Russian forces successfully repelling Ukrainian assaults at various locations, though these cannot be confirmed at present. The Federal Security Service (FSB), rather than the Ministry of Defence, is now overseeing a formal counter-terrorism operation in Kursk oblast; Russian forces have so far been primarily relying upon conscript forces and other reserve and interior troops to contain the Kursk offensive. However additional redeployments have begun to strengthen the Russian frontline. Notably, Russian sources reported on 9-10 August that the Russian command had begun redeploying units from lower-priority areas of eastern and southern Ukraine to Kursk oblast.

Unconfirmed reports indicate that elements of up to nine Russian brigades are being redeployed to Kursk, including elements of units from the Kharkiv, Kherson and Kupiansk (Oskil-Kreminna) frontlines. If accurate, this would indicate that the Russian high command is avoiding diverting forces from the current main offensive efforts near Pokrovsk and Toretsk (Donetsk oblast) and does not want to slow the pace of offensive operations there. Russian command has also demonstrated that it is prepared to reprioritise elsewhere, meaning that the risk of Russian attacks will likely decrease along the southern, Kharkiv and Oskil-Kreminna lines.

Forcing the Russians to redeploy forces from Donbas to alleviate pressure on Ukraine’s forces in the region is likely a primary objective of the Kursk offensive. Ukrainian military commentator Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on 11 August that Russian forces have so far already redeployed up to eleven under-strength battalions from elsewhere in Ukraine to Kursk. While it remains unclear whether the rate of Russia’s Donetsk offensives will slow as a result, confirmation that the Ukrainians have taken Russian conscripts prisoner will increase political pressure on the Kremlin to limit conscript losses to prevent societal backlash. Within this context, the announcement of a counter-terrorism operation in Kursk, as well as the evacuation of some 76,000 civilians from Kursk oblast alone, underscores that the Ukrainian Kursk offensive not only poses a serious military challenge for the Kremlin but also poses a potential political crisis.

*Russia: Heightened security posture, further evacuations are likely amid Ukrainian incursion. The local department of Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations for Kursk oblast reported on 10 August that over 76,000 people have been evacuated from areas bordering Ukraine amid a Ukrainian incursion into the region. The Russian authorities introduced counter-terrorism measures early on 9 August in three regions bordering Ukraine: Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk oblasts. During periods of anti-terrorism measures, the authorities are empowered to resettle residents temporarily and to restrict vehicle and pedestrian movement, as well as to monitor telephone conversations and other telecommunications. Ukrainian forces launched a large-scale offensive across the international border into Kursk on 6 August; as of 11 August, Ukrainian troops had likely advanced up to 18.6 miles (30km) into Russian territory. An augmented security posture in the above-mentioned oblasts where anti-terrorism measures are in place is highly likely in the coming days, with further evacuations from regions on the border with Ukraine also a realistic possibility. For further analysis on the Kursk incursion,

*UK: Russian actors’ exploitation of software supply chain sustains espionage risks to public sector. On 8 August, the media outlet Recorded Future News reported that Russian state-sponsored actor ‘Midnight Blizzard’ breached the UK Home Office earlier in 2024 in a supply chain attack. The attack initially compromised Microsoft in January, allowing threat actors to obtain access to senior leaders in the company as well as the organisation’s source code repositories. Actors subsequently abused Microsoft’s supply chain to obtain sensitive customer data. As a result, the threat actors accessed corporate email data shared between the Home Office and Microsoft. Although the Home Office stated that there was no evidence that threat actors had compromised internal systems, the incident highlights how Russian actors continue to exploit the software supply chain to target strategic entities in espionage operations. We assess that the continued use of a few, select software providers for all critical government operations underscores the latent security risks that vendor monopolies can pose to the public sector, elevating long-term security risks. (Source: Sibylline)

15 Aug 24. Complications loom for US arms policy as Ukraine moves deeper into Russia. The U.S. so far deems Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region a protective move appropriate for Kyiv to use U.S. equipment, officials in Washington said, but they expressed worries about potential complications as Ukrainian troops push further into enemy territory.

Ukraine has said its advancing troops have so far pushed 35 km (21 miles) into Russia since launching the incursion on Aug. 6. Kyiv says it has no interest in occupying Russian land and is creating a buffer zone to protect its border areas from Russian attacks.

U.S. officials said Kyiv’s overarching goals remain unclear.

“It complicates the policy the more they progress into Russia without defined terms,” a U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Reuters.

The official said that if Ukraine starts taking villages and other non-military targets using U.S. weapons and vehicles, that could raise questions about whether it is within the limitations Washington has imposed.

A second U.S. official said Washington’s weapons policy was not designed for Ukraine to invade Russia, although Kyiv was technically in compliance. As a result, the official said, President Joe Biden’s administration has not taken a strong public stance in support of or opposition to the assault.

It was unclear which U.S.-made weapons or equipment have been used in the incursion. The Pentagon said last week that Ukraine was “taking actions to protect themselves from attacks that are coming from a region that are within the U.S. policy.”

Since Russia invaded its neighbor in February 2022, the U.S. has stood firm with Ukraine, providing more than $50 billion worth of military equipment. Seeking to avoid a broader conflict with geopolitical rival Russia, the Biden administration initially put strict limits on use of its weapons.

Those have slowly been loosened, with Washington allowing Ukrainian strikes in Russia where attacks are emanating from. Yet despite appeals from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the U.S. still limits the use of its weapons for long-range attacks on Russian territory. The Biden administration has not publicly defined “long-range.”

“We have been very, very clear and consistent that we really want to see Ukraine focus on defending themselves against this aggression inside of course their borders,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby told MSNBC on Thursday.

“We don’t encourage and we don’t enable attacks outside of Ukraine except for in those exigent circumstances where we believe just over the border they’re facing some imminent threats,” he said.

ESCALATION

The administration is working to determine what Ukraine’s goals actually are with the offensive, which the U.S. officials said caught Washington by surprise. One official said: “It’s not unusual for them to do things without letting us know.”

One possible aim of the operation, they said, appeared to be to force Russia to pull some troops out of Ukraine. One official said intelligence indicated at least some movement of Russian troops from Ukraine’s Kharkiv towards the Kursk region.

The gambit looks like it is starting to pay off, but “we’ll have a clearer picture in the weeks ahead,” said one U.S. official. Biden has not spoken with Zelenskiy since they met twice in June in France and Italy, the official said.

On Thursday, Russia said it would beef up border defenses, improve command and control and send in additional forces following the incursion into Kursk. Moscow has also warned against the use of Western weapons by Ukraine.

“The use of U.S. weapons in Kursk, in Ukraine or anywhere else – for us – is an act of escalation and it will have serious consequences, we are being absolutely blunt about this with our U.S. colleagues. They know our opposition,” Russia’s Deputy U.N. Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy told reporters on Wednesday.

The Ukrainian and Russian militaries have banned international journalists from the battlefield making it all but impossible to verify their claims about the battle.

The U.S. has gradually eased restrictions on Ukraine’s use of its weapons in part because Russian President Vladimir Putin has not lashed out as feared against Europe or the U.S., experts said.

“The Biden administration sees that they’ve been able to manage the escalation ladder extremely effectively since the outset of the war,” said Rachel Rizzo, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center in Washington.

Rizzo said the goal was to manage Russia’s reaction, but also “allow the Ukrainians enough leeway in terms of weapons use that they have an opportunity to actually see some advances.” (Source: Reuters)

15 Aug 24. U.S., Ukraine Leaders Discuss Current Situation in Russia-Ukraine War. U.S. and Ukrainian defense leaders discussed the attack on the Russian province of Kursk as well as the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, said Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh today.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov yesterday “trying to get a better understanding of their objectives,” Singh said. “It’s something we’re continuing to engage on going to continue to monitor.”

The current offensive towards Kursk does not change what weapons the coalition supporting Ukraine is providing the embattled nation, she said. She noted that weapons provided to the Ukrainian armed forces have changed since the Russian invasion in February 2022.

Singh said the Ukraine Defense Contact Group — a coalition of more than 50 nations — began sending basic anti-armor and anti-aircraft weaponry to Ukraine. That has morphed as the war continued and changed with Ukrainian pilots now flying F-16s, Ukrainian infantrymen receiving sophisticated training, Ukrainian tankers driving German Leopard and U.S. Abrams tanks and more.

“You’ve seen us modify and give different capabilities over time, and we reserve that right continue to do that,” Singh said.

There is some indication that the Ukrainian attack in Russia is drawing Russian forces away from Russian efforts in the Eastern provinces of Ukraine, she said.

There are early reports of some movement of Russian units being directed towards Kursk, Singh said. She had no comment on the number of units or their possible objectives. “We have seen some Russian units be redirected from operations in Ukraine,” she said.

U.S. officials believe the Ukrainians have been effective on the battlefield and are pushing Russian forces back from areas they captured. The United States is worried about escalation between Russia and Ukraine, Singh said, “that’s something that the administration is always weighing, but you have to remember what Ukraine has been able to do. … They’ve been very successful at being able to take back their sovereign territory, and they still continue to do it.”

The war in Ukraine could end in a day if Russian President Vladimir Putin withdrew his troops, but Ukraine is prepared to continue the fight. “What I will tell you is … that our commitment is with Ukraine for the long haul,” she said.

In the Middle East, U.S. deterrence forces continue to arrive, Singh said. Austin ordered F-22 Raptor aircraft to the region and ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to accelerate its arrival in U.S. Central Command. The secretary also ordered more U.S. naval vessels to the waters off Israel. “The U.S. government also remains very focused on cease-fire as part of to bring all hostages home and to end the war in Gaza,” she said.

A cease-fire in Gaza would serve to help de-escalate the situation in the region. Iran and Iranian-backed groups have threatened to attack Israel, and Singh said the Iranians would do well to look at what happened in April when Iran and its proxies launched drones and missiles at Israel. “Iran did attack Israel, but I’ll remind you, we shot out of the sky 90% of what they threw at Israel,” she said. “That was an incredibly intricate operation with the Israeli military, our military and our allies in the region.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

16 Aug 24. Russian MP says Ukrainian incursion could lead to global war, RIA reports. A Russian parliamentary deputy said on Friday that the Western-backed Ukrainian incursion has brought the world close to an all-out global war, Russia’s RIA news agency reported.

Ukrainian troops crossed the border into Russia’s Kursk region on Aug. 6 and have since advanced significantly, forcing Moscow to evacuate over 200,000 people from their homes.

“Considering the presence of Western military equipment, the use of Western ammunition and missiles in attacks on civilian infrastructure and irrefutable proof of foreigners’ participation in the attack on Russian territory, one could come to the conclusion that the world is on the brink of a third world war,” RIA quoted deputy Mikhail Sheremet as saying.

Sheremet, who is a member of the Russian parliament’s defence committee, echoed Putin by saying that NATO countries had given a green light to the incursion plans, a charge Washington has denied.

Putin’s aide, Nikolai Patrushev, on Friday also accused the West of being behind the attack, in an interview with Izvestia newspaper.

Patrushev said NATO and Western intelligence agencies were involved in planning the Kursk operation, although he provided no evidence.

Ukraine and its allies say Russia is receiving assistance in its war effort from China, Iran and North Korea.

Earlier on Friday, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reaffirmed a pledge to deepen cooperation with Russia and expressed confidence that Moscow would be victorious in its “holy war for peace and justice”. (Source: Reuters)

15 Aug 24. British-supplied Challenger 2 tanks said to be used in Russia by Ukraine. BFBS Forces News understands that Challenger 2 tanks have been used inside Russia by Ukraine (Picture: British Army)

British-donated Challenger 2 main battle tanks have been used by the Ukrainian armed forces inside Russia’s border, BFBS Forces News understands.

Following an announcement from the UK Government that British weapons could be used inside Russia’s territories, President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that Ukrainian troops have made a surprise incursion into the Kursh region.

The British-donated main battle tanks are believed to have taken part in the operation.

In terms of how British-supplied weapons can be used, an MOD spokesperson said: “There has been no change in UK government policy.

“Under Article 51 of the UN Charter, Ukraine has a clear right of self-defence against Russia’s illegal attacks, that does not preclude operations inside Russia.

“We make clear during the gifting process that equipment is to be used in line with international law.”

The UK Government is believed to be discussing with its allies whether to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles outside its borders.

The 82nd Air Assault Brigade, which has been operating UK tanks since 2023, was deployed in the ongoing incursion and is currently fighting inside Russia.

It is unknown how many tanks may have been involved in the incursion.

The UK donated 14 Challenger 2 tanks in January 2023 to the Ukrainian armed forces as part of their defence against Moscow’s invasion.

The Kursk offensive is believed to be the largest of its kind by a foreign army on Russian soil since the Second World War. (Source: forces.net)

14 Aug 24. Russia hastily builds trenches in Kursk. Oleksander Syrsky, Ukraine’s army chief, said that his forces had pushed another 2km into the border region of Kursk, capturing 100 more prisoners of war.

Kyiv’s troops filmed themselves inside a captured Russian command point, as Moscow struggled to halt the cross-border incursion that has now lasted more than a week.

“The search for and destruction of the enemy in the town of Sudzha has been completed,” Mr Syrsky said, referring to the Ukrainian-controlled home of Russia’s last gas terminal for shipments to Europe.

Ukrainian state television broadcast a report showing soldiers pulling down the Russian flag from the city’s three-storey administrative building as they shouted: “Glory to Ukraine!”

Igor Klymenko, the interior minister, said Ukraine would create a “buffer zone” in Kursk to prevent Russian cross-border strikes.

Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, warned that his drone arsenal was not enough to protect his troops, in an appeal for the UK and Western allies to drop limits on long-range missile strikes inside Russia.

(Source: Daily Telegraph)

14 Aug 24. Germany seeks arrest of Ukrainian for Nord Stream pipeline attacks. German authorities have issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian man over the sabotage of the controversial Nord Stream gas pipelines.

German authorities have issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian man accused of sabotaging the Nord Stream gas pipelines nearly two years ago.

Germany’s chief prosecutor issued the warrant following an investigation by news outlets ARD, Süddeutsche Zeitung and Die Zeit earlier today (14 August).

The suspect, a 44-year-old Ukrainian diving instructor named Volodymyr Zhuravlov, is alleged to have hijacked the German-flagged Andromeda yacht at the island of Rügen with two accomplices on 26 September, 2022 – two days after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The three men allegedly directed the Andromeda’s driver to the location of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, before two of the men dived underwater and detonated man-made Trinitrotoluene (TNT) explosives. Ruptures led to four leaks on the pipelines, releasing plumes of methane into the atmosphere.

Zhuravlov was last known to be living in a village west of Warsaw, Poland, but is believed to have gone into hiding, DW reported.

Police and prosecutors have found no evidence of involvement by Ukraine’s intelligence services or military, an allegation which Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has constantly denied.

Why are the Nord Stream pipelines important?

The Nord Stream pipelines have long been a major source of geopolitical tension between Berlin and its EU allies for making the bloc even more reliant on Russian energy.

Nord Stream 1 was the primary conduit for Russian natural gas into Germany. It also supplied EU nations with roughly 35% of all the gas they import from Russia.

Nord Stream 2 had been completed but had not yet gone into operation, as Moscow had already suspended most gas deliveries to Germany amid the Ukraine invasion.

The 1,230-kilometre-long pipeline attracted criticism from Germany’s eastern European neighbours for allowing Russia to bypass Poland and the Baltic states to supply gas directly into Germany, the region’s largest economy and manufacturers.

While reportedly unconnected to Ukraine’s armed forces, the Nord Stream sabotage has been the most significant of various attacks on energy infrastructure amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Last week, Ukrainian forces seized a key gas distribution hub in a rare counter-incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, prompting a sharp rise in gas prices. The Sudzha gas station is the only operational route for Russian pipeline gas into Europe following the Nord Stream attacks.

In April, there was widespread concern of radiological contamination as Russia took Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant ‘hostage’.

Moscow also stands accused of ‘ecocide’ for decimating Ukraine’s habitat and natural spaces, while Russian drone strikes have repeatedly targeted Ukraine’s energy grid, causing outages across Odesa, Kyiv and other regions. (Source: naval-technology.com)

14 Aug 24. Ukraine has launched one of the largest drone attacks on Russia as Kyiv’s forces are facing increased resistance in their attempt to push further into Russian territory, nine days into their daring cross-border incursion. Russia’s defence ministry said on Wednesday that Ukraine had launched 117 drones, as well as missiles, not only in the Kursk region, but also in the regions of Voronezh, Belgorod and Nizhny Novgorod. The attack is one of the largest recorded since Moscow’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the rate at which Ukraine is seizing territory in the Kursk region appears to have slowed. Ukraine’s top general, Oleksandr Syrsky, said on Monday that Ukrainian forces hold 1,000 sq km of Russian territory. But 24 hours later, he said that they had occupied just a further 40 sq km. Deep State, a Ukrainian analytical group that works closely with the defence ministry, has put the total at 800 sq km, but has only mapped 330 sq km in order to not give away sensitive Ukrainian positions. The group’s co-founder, Roman Pohorilyi, told the Financial Times that the area under Ukrainian control was close to Syrsky’s estimate. “ (The) Muscovites are disoriented, they do not fully understand what is happening,” said Pohorilyi. He added that the secrecy about the exact Ukrainian positions helped keep Russians in the dark. Russian military blogger Alexander Kots said that Ukrainian troops had appeared in Giri, 25km south-east of the area deemed under Ukrainian control by Deep State. But they were pushed out by Russian forces, he said. On Tuesday, Russia’s defence ministry said Ukrainian attacks had been thwarted near the settlements of Obshchii Kolodez, Alekseevsky, Snagost and Kauchuk — all of which are in Kursk, up to 60km deep into Russian territory. Russia has scrambled to contain the Ukrainian incursion, with President Vladimir Putin calling it a “provocation” and pledging a “worthy response”. An “anti-terrorist” operation was declared on August 9 by Russia’s central authorities for Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk regions, all of which border Ukraine. This allows the authorities to restrict movement of residents and gives the security services full access to the area. (Source: FT.com)

14 Aug 24. A second border region in Russia has declared a state of emergency after Ukraine began bombarding it early on Wednesday.

“The situation in our Belgorod region remains extremely difficult and tense due to shelling from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Houses are destroyed, civilians died and were injured,” said Vyacheslav Gladkov, governor of the region.

Thousands of Ukrainian troops rammed through the Russian border in the early hours of Aug 6 into Russia’s Kursk region, which neighbours Belgorod, catching Moscow off-guard and slicing through its defences.

Although Vladimir Putin vowed to “drive out the enemy”, intense battles have so far failed to expel them, with Kyiv’s forces claiming to have now seized control of 74 settlements and prompting the evacuations of 200,000.

The surprise incursion has “created a real dilemma” for Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden, US president, said in his first comments on Kyiv’s operations on Russian soil on Tuesday. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

14 Aug 24. Ukraine pounds Russia with drones and says it is advancing deeper.

Summary
Ukraine attacks Russia with 117 drones, Russia says
Zelenskiy: Ukraine is going deeper into Russia
Biden: incursion ‘a real dilemma for Putin’
Russia fighting intense battles in Kursk, bloggers
claims control of 74 settlements in Kursk

Ukraine pounded Russian regions with missiles and drones on Wednesday as Kyiv said it was advancing deeper in the biggest foreign incursion into Russia for decades, which the White House said posed a “real dilemma” for President Vladimir Putin.

Thousands of Ukrainian troops rammed through the Russian border in the early hours of Aug. 6 into Russia’s Western Kursk region in what Putin said was a major provocation that was aimed at gaining a stronger hand in possible future ceasefire talks.

In an embarrassment for Russia, Ukraine carved out a slice of Kursk and though Putin said the Russian army would push out the Ukrainian troops, intense battles have so far failed to expel them.

Russia said on Wednesday that it had destroyed 117 Ukrainian drones in Russia overnight, mostly in the Kursk, Voronezh and Belgorod and Nizhny Novgorod regions. It said missiles had also been shot down and showed Sukhoi Su-34 bombers pounding Ukrainian positions in Kursk.

Russian commanders had said that the front in Kursk had stabilised, though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his forces were continuing to advance there and ordered his generals to develop the next “key steps” in the operation.

U.S. President Joe Biden said that U.S. officials were in constant touch with Ukraine over the invasion of Russia, which he said had “created a real dilemma” for Putin, who ordered thousands of troops into Ukraine in 2022.

The White House said Ukraine did not provide advance notice of its incursion and the United States had no involvement in the operation, though Russian officials have suggested Ukraine’s Western backers must have known of the attack.

A U.S. official said the goal of Ukraine’s Kursk incursion appeared to be to force Russia to pull troops out of Ukraine to defend Russian territory against the cross-border assault.

The Ukrainian attack on Russia, the biggest by a foreign force since World War Two, has dramatically changed the narrative around the war. Russia had been advancing since the failure of Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive to make any major gains against Moscow’s forces.

RUSSIA ON DEFENSIVE

Putin said on Monday that Ukraine “with the help of its Western masters” was aiming to improve Kyiv’s negotiating position ahead of possible peace talks and to slow the advance of Russian forces.

But in a sign the attack is hardening the Kremlin’s position, Putin questioned what negotiations there could be with an enemy he accused of firing indiscriminately at Russian civilians and nuclear facilities.

Russian officials say Ukraine is trying to show its Western backers that it can still muster major military operations just as pressure mounts on both Kyiv and Moscow to agree to talk about halting the war.

By bringing the war to Russia, Ukraine has forced nearly 200,000 Russians to evacuate border regions.

The governor of Russia’s border region of Belgorod, Vyacheslav Gladkov, declared a regionwide state of emergency on Wednesday, citing continued attacks by Ukrainian forces.

“The situation in the Belgorod region continues to be extremely difficult and tense,” Gladkov said in a video posted on the Telegram messaging app.

Daily shelling by the Ukrainian armed forces had destroyed houses, killing and wounding civilians, he added.

The offensive brings risks for Kyiv: Ukraine may leave other parts of the front exposed by dedicating forces to fighting in Russian sovereign territory. Russia controls 18% of Ukrainian territory and has been advancing in recent months.

Ukraine has claimed it controls at least 1,000 sq km (386 square miles) of Russia, more than double what Moscow’s figures indicate. Reuters was not able to independently verify the battlefield situation.

A Russian military blogger close to the defence ministry who goes by the name “Rybar” said on the Telegram messaging app that Ukrainian forces were attacking in several areas at once. Russian troops were “pinning down” Kyiv soldiers, striking their armoury, while reinforcements were arriving. (Source: Reuters)

13 Aug 24. Ukrainian forces sought to solidify their gains in newly seized Russian territory on Tuesday after capturing hundreds of Russian soldiers as Kyiv’s brazen incursion entered its second week. The shock offensive has swiftly gained significant ground in the Kursk region, embarrassing President Vladimir Putin and lifting the spirits of a war-weary army that has been fighting on its heels for much of the past year. Deep State, a Ukrainian analytical group that works closely with the defence ministry, said the country’s forces had “advanced in Sudzha and captured Guyevo . . . and fully entrenched themselves in Goncharovka”. Ukrainian soldiers on Monday filmed themselves ripping down the Russian flag from an administrative building in Guyevo, about 3km inside the Kursk region. Ukraine has also captured hundreds of Russian soldiers, according to videos published by military brigades and verified by the FT, to hold as prisoners of war who could be swapped for their own troops in Russian captivity. A series of such swaps have already taken place. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday expressed gratitude to “each of our units that replenish the exchange fund for us, for Ukraine”. “Russia brought war to others, and now it is coming home,” he said, hinting the incursion would strengthen Ukraine’s hand in any potential talks with Russia to end the war. (Source: FT.com)

13 Aug 24. Commenting on Ukrainian military action in Russia, Dr David Blagden, from the University of Exeter, said: “Ukraine seems to have chosen to take this action using some of its best forces against one of the weakest points on Russia’s border; if Kyiv holds Russian territory, it can bargain for the return of its own territory from a position of greater strength (whether that be tacitly or via formal negotiations). However, other likely aims include showing the international community that Ukraine’s army can (a) still go on the offensive and (b) strike Russia even without allies’ permission to use their most advanced weapons in that way, thereby helping to encourage allies’ further support, as well as encouraging Ukrainian citizens to keep fighting and enlisting. Kyiv will have also sought to damage the impression of the all-powerful Putin regime among Russians and to encourage the Kremlin to seek a settlement lest they jeopardise their hold on power. Such manipulation of Russian domestic sentiment is the hardest piece of the jigsaw to achieve, however, as Putin has long been adept at deflecting from state failure and he may just be further incentivised to double down on the war.

“Ultimately, all strategic choices entail trade-offs. The operation has thus far been notably successful, damaging domestic perceptions of the Putin regime’s competence among the affected Russian communities and forcing Moscow to divert forces – albeit perhaps not as many as Kyiv would like – in a bid to stall Ukraine’s offensive. Yet the personnel, equipment, and logistics demands of attempting to sustain the incursion then hold the taken territory will be significant, especially as supply lines lengthen, and thus potentially detrimental to the Ukrainian war effort on other fronts.”

12 Aug 24. Ukrainian Tactics in Kursk: Electronic Warfare, Drones, and the Russian Response.

Recent assessments by Russian military blogger Zhivov reveal how Ukrainian forces have utilized advanced electronic warfare (EW) and drone tactics during their assault on the Kursk region. These tactics have played a pivotal role in disrupting Russian operations and gaining significant battlefield advantages.

Ukrainian Electronic Warfare Strategy

The Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) have implemented a methodical electronic warfare strategy that has severely compromised Russian communication capabilities. Zhivov reports that Ukraine has successfully closed nearly all control ranges for Russian communications, leaving only one or two frequencies operational. This forces Russian forces into a difficult position: either continue to operate under compromised connections, risking exposure to drone swarms, or cut off communication entirely, which significantly hampers their operational effectiveness.

In addition to narrowing operational frequencies, the AFU has adapted their drone frequencies to operate in ranges where Russian forces lack mass electronic warfare stations. This strategic frequency shifting has rendered Russian EW systems largely ineffective against Ukrainian drones, allowing them to operate with relative impunity. Ukrainian troops have deployed drones like the DJI Mavic, modified with non-standard range-shifting boards, in large numbers, creating significant challenges for Russian defenses. These drones have been used extensively for reconnaissance and precision targeting, further complicating Russian defensive efforts.

Under the cover of these drone swarms and communication blackouts, Ukrainian infantry units advance in small groups of 4-6 soldiers to secure strategic positions or defensive lines. These small-unit maneuvers are supported by UAVs that provide real-time intelligence and cover, enabling the infantry to move with minimal resistance. This approach has been particularly effective in dismantling Russian defensive positions, as the drones create confusion and disarray, leaving Russian forces vulnerable to follow-up attacks.

Zhivov also highlights that the AFU has allocated reconnaissance and Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) units into specialized forces tasked with executing precision strikes on Russian positions. These units, guided by real-time intelligence from drones and electronic warfare systems, have carried out highly effective operations against Russian forces. The combination of drone swarms and precision MLRS targeting has often left Russian forces with little time to react, leading to their destruction before they can effectively respond.

12 Aug 24. Russian Counterterrorism Operation in Response.

In response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, the Russian National Antiterrorism Committee announced a counterterrorism operation in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts on August 9. The Federal Security Service (FSB) Head and National Antiterrorism Committee Chairperson Alexander Bortnikov announced these operations, citing “sabotage and reconnaissance units” conducting “terrorist acts” in Russia and “units of the Ukrainian armed forces” carrying out a “terrorist attack” in Kursk Oblast.

This counterterrorism operation allows Russian authorities to take a series of measures, including suspending or restricting communication services, monitoring telecommunication channels, confiscating vehicles, and entering private property. Despite the escalating situation, the Kremlin has notably refrained from declaring a formal state of war or martial law, likely to downplay the scale of the Ukrainian incursion and prevent domestic panic.

The counterterrorism operation is led by Bortnikov, who has proven himself an effective manager during crises that threaten Russian domestic stability. However, the complicated command and control (C2) arrangement under Bortnikov may degrade the effectiveness of the Russian response. The operation involves units from the Russian Armed Forces, Rosgvardia, the FSB, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD), which could lead to friction and bureaucratic obstacles.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has redeployed elements of the Northern Grouping of Forces and other units from lower-priority frontline areas to defend against the Ukrainian advance. Reports indicate that up to nine unspecified brigades may have been redeployed, including airborne battalions, naval infantry, motorized rifle brigades, and elements from various other regions. This redeployment, however, has contributed to the disorganization of Russia’s response, as these forces are a mix of frontline units, conscripts, and operational reserves with varying levels of combat experience.

As the Ukrainian forces continue to advance, there is growing evidence that they are preparing for a long-term occupation of parts of Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces have reportedly begun digging trenches, signaling an anticipation of static warfare along or near the existing front line.

Russian military correspondents have noted the Ukrainian trenching activities with concern, warning that once these defenses are established, it could become increasingly difficult for Russian forces to dislodge the Ukrainians. Russian columns attempting to reach the front line are reportedly being met with Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups, drones, and artillery. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

12 Aug 24. Ukrainian Navy Destroys Russian GPS Interference Platform in the Black Sea. The Ukrainian Navy launched a targeted operation against a former offshore gas platform in the Black Sea that had been repurposed by Russian forces for GPS spoofing, a tactic that endangers civilian and military navigation. According to Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk, the platform, located off the coast of Crimea, was being used by Russian units to broadcast GPS interference, potentially leading commercial airliners and ships off course.

On August 10, Ukrainian naval forces, in coordination with the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, struck and destroyed the platform. Pletenchuk confirmed that the attack occurred just hours after Russian forces had stationed equipment and personnel on the platform.

The attack is part of a broader Ukrainian effort to counteract Russian electronic warfare tactics in the Black Sea. GPS spoofing, a method that sends false GPS signals to disrupt navigation, has been increasingly employed by Russian forces in the region, according to cybersecurity researchers and aviation experts.

Pletenchuk stated that Ukraine could not allow the continued use of such technology, which is aimed at disrupting Ukrainian grain shipments and other critical maritime activities.

In a related incident, Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Defense Intelligence reported that a Magura V5 suicide drone boat had attacked and destroyed a Russian patrol boat off the coast of Crimea near the village of Chornomorske. The drone strike, which took place on the night of August 9, also reportedly damaged three additional Russian vessels. Footage released by Ukrainian authorities shows the drone boat under heavy fire from a Russian helicopter as it approached the target area. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

13 Aug 24. Zelensky tells Russia ‘war is coming home’ as Ukraine makes new gains in Kursk. Volodymyr Zelensky told Russia the war is “coming home” as Ukrainian troops made fresh advances as part of its week-long invasion of the Kursk region.

“Russia brought war to others, and now it is coming home…Ukraine has always wanted peace – and we will undoubtedly ensure peace,” The Ukrainian leader said in his nightly address soon after his military claimed to have captured 1,000 square miles of territory.

Despite Moscow’s claims that it had stalled Kyiv’s advance, the Institute for the Study of War said Ukraine was still piercing further into Russia in several areas.

“Ukrainian forces reportedly launched new incursions into western Kursk Oblast near Slobodka-Ivanovka, Tetkino, Gordeevka, Uspenka, and Viktorovka,” the US-based think tank said.

Vladimir Putin earlier on Monday vowed to “drive out the enemy” as he accused the West of “fighting us with the hands of Ukrainians” in his first public remarks on the assault. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

09 Aug 24. Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine. Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration’s sixty-third tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package, which has an estimated value of $125 m, will provide Ukraine additional capabilities to meet its most urgent needs, including: air defense capabilities; multi-mission radars to detect and counter enemy artillery; and anti-tank weapons.

The capabilities in this announcement include:

Stinger missiles;
Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition;
Multi-mission radars;
Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV) ambulances;
Small arms ammunition;
Demolitions equipment and munitions;
Equipment to protect critical national infrastructure; and
Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.

The United States will continue to work together with some 50 Allies and partners to ensure Ukraine’s brave defenders receive the critical capabilities needed to fight Russian aggression. (Source: U.S. DoD)

09 Aug 24. Ukraine’s military said it had captured a key gas transit point supplying Europe as Kyiv pursued its most ambitious incursion into Russian territory in a decade of war, forcing Moscow to declare a state of emergency in two regions. The unexpected offensive, which raged into a fourth day on Friday, is the largest attack by Kyiv’s forces on Russian soil, not only since President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but at least since the Kremlin’s covert invasion of Crimea and the Donbas 10 years ago. The assault aims to divert Russia’s troops from the east, expose its weaknesses and strengthen Kyiv’s position in future negotiations with Moscow, said an adviser to the government, after months of Russian gains on the more than 1,000km-long front of the grinding war within Ukraine. Late on Friday, in the first Ukrainian public confirmation of the incursion, a military brigade published a video of its soldiers at the office of Russian state energy group Gazprom at the Sudzha gas measuring station, a crucial transit post for gas supplies to Europe. “Sudzha is under the full control of Ukrainian troops,” said the 61st mechanised brigade on Telegram. Gas prices in Russia rose sharply to an annual peak, said a Gazprom representative on Telegram. A state of emergency was declared in the Russian regions of Kursk and Lipetsk, where Ukrainian forces were engaged in fierce fighting. (Source: FT.com)

08 Aug 24. Cheap first-person-view drones now hunting larger prey in Ukraine. Low-cost first-person-view drones are proving increasingly capable of striking larger platforms — such as combat helicopters — in Ukraine, as their pace of development has accelerated to allow them to fly faster and further.

On Aug. 7, the Ukrainian military released footage showing one of its unknown models of FPV drones successfully hitting the tail rotor of a Russian Mi-28 Havoc attack helicopter over the battlefield.

The hit represented one of the first filmed strikes on a manned Russian helicopter, in flight, using a Ukrainian FPV platform. While these variations of drones have been used widely across the battlefield, experts say efforts to use them to bring down larger, expensive aircraft have been previously unsuccessful.

“There were numerous attempts of Ukrainian FPVs trying to chase Russian helicopters before, but all such attacks were near misses,” Sam Bendett, a research analyst at the U.S.-based Center for Naval Analyses, said. “It’s difficult to pilot an FPV drone towards a military helicopter flying at high speeds.”

Although it is not possible from the available recording to certify the overall impact of the hit on the aircraft, Bendett says that the fast-paced evolution of these small drones and the ways they can be used should be watched closely by militaries globally.

“The sky over the [Ukraine] battlefield is now teeming with fast-flying FPVs hunting much larger prey, and assuming one can be piloted to the helicopter’s vulnerable part — like its rear propeller — major damage can be done,” he said.

Helicopters have proven especially vulnerable throughout the war in Ukraine, due in part to the proliferation of ground-based air defenses that have rendered manned flight across the battlefield extremely difficult.

As of July 27, Ukraine’s military intelligence unit, HUR, reported that Russian forces have lost up to 326 helicopters since the start of the invasion. Bendett notes that some of Moscow’s rotorcraft are larger and fly at slower speeds than the Mi-28, which could offer more occasions for a successful FPV attack.

FPV drones were introduced relatively early on in the war to fulfill different tasks. In late 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the country’s intention to produce one m of the platforms in 2024.

Whereas initially the drones had a significantly limited range, between 3 to 5 kilometers on average, Bendett says that number has expanded to 15-20 kilometers today.

The future use of FPVs in combat will likely involve them flying “in swarms and groups in order to overwhelm adversary defenses,” according to Bendett.

Beyond this, other military experts argue that the rise of this new threat alongside the already exposed vulnerabilities of helicopters will necessitate a reconsideration of the use and role of rotary aircraft.

“The future use of helicopters in combat can and should be rethought, especially with the growth of unmanned systems,” Serhii Kuzan, a former adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, told Defense News. “It is quite likely that their role as strike means may change after the Russian-Ukraine war, as potentially this feature will be used by attack drones or even unmanned helicopters.” (Source: Defense News)

09 Aug 24. Iran to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia soon, intel sources say. Dozens of Russian military personnel are being trained in Iran to use the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, two European intelligence sources told Reuters, adding that they expected the imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

Russian defence ministry representatives are believed to have signed a contract on Dec. 13 in Tehran with Iranian officials for the Fath-360 and another ballistic missile system built by Iran’s government-owned Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO) called the Ababil, said the two intelligence officials, who requested anonymity in order to discuss sensitive matters.

Citing multiple confidential intelligence sources, the officials said that Russian personnel have visited Iran to learn how to operate the Fath-360 defence system, which launches missiles with a maximum range of 120 km (75 miles) and a warhead of 150 kg. One of the sources said that that “the only next possible” step after training would be actual delivery of the missiles to Russia.

Moscow possesses its own ballistic missiles, but the supply of Fath-360s could allow Russia to use more of its arsenal for targets beyond the front line, while employing Iranian warheads for closer-range targets, a military expert said.

A spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council said the United States and its NATO allies and G7 partners “are prepared to deliver a swift and severe response if Iran were to move forward with such transfers.”

It “would represent a dramatic escalation in Iran’s support for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” the spokesman said. “The White House has repeatedly warned of the deepening security partnership between Russia and Iran since the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”

Russia’s defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations in New York said in a statement that the Islamic Republic had forged a long-term strategic partnership with Russia in various areas, including military cooperation.

“Nevertheless, from an ethical standpoint, Iran refrains from transferring any weapons, including missiles, that could potentially be used in the conflict with Ukraine until it is over,” the statement said.

The White House declined to confirm that Iran was training Russian military personnel on the Fath-360 or that it was preparing to ship the weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine.

The two intelligence sources gave no exact timeframe for the expected delivery of Fath-360 missiles to Russia but said it would be soon. They did not provide any intelligence on the status of the Abibal contract.

A third intelligence source from another European agency said it had also received information that Russia had sent soldiers to Iran to train in the use of Iranian ballistic missile systems, without providing further details.

Such training is standard practice for Iranian weapons supplied to Russia, said the third source, who also declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the information.

A senior Iranian official, who requested anonymity, said Iran had sold missiles and drones to Russia but has not provided Fath-360 missiles. There was no legal prohibition on Tehran selling such weapons to Russia, the source added.

“Iran and Russia engage in the mutual purchase of parts and military equipment. How each country uses this equipment is entirely their decision,” the official said, adding that Iran did not sell weapons to Russia for use in the Ukraine war.

As part of the military cooperation, Iranian and Russian officials often travelled between the two states, the official added.

“DESTABILIZING ACTIONS”

Until now, Iran’s military support for Moscow has been limited mainly to unmanned Shahed attack drones, which carry a fraction of the explosives and are easier to shoot down because they are slower than ballistic missiles.

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said in July 2023 the system had been successfully tested by the country’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Force.

“Delivery of large numbers of short-range ballistic missiles from Iran to Russia would enable a further increase in pressure on already badly overstretched Ukrainian missile defence systems,” said Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow for Air Power at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based defence think-tank.

“As ballistic threats, they could only be intercepted reliably by the upper tier of Ukrainian systems,” he said, referring to the most sophisticated air defences Ukraine has such as the U.S.-made Patriot and European SAMP/T systems.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense did not have immediate comment.

The NSC spokesman noted that Iran’s newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian “claimed he wanted to moderate Iran’s policies and engage with the world. Destabilizing actions like this fly in the face of that rhetoric.”

U.N. Security Council restrictions on Iran’s export of some missiles, drones and other technologies expired in October 2023. However, the United States and European Union retained sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile programme amid concerns over exports of weapons to its proxies in the Middle East and to Russia.

Reuters reported in February on deepening military cooperation between Iran and Russia and on Moscow’s interest in Iranian surface-to-surface missiles.

Sources told the news agency at the time that around 400 Fateh-110 longer-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles had been delivered. But the European intelligence sources told Reuters that according to their information, no transfer had happened yet.

Ukrainian authorities have not publicly reported finding any Iranian missile remnants or debris during the war. Authorities in Kyiv did not immediately respond to a request for comment. (Source: Google/Reuters)

08 Aug 24. Ukrainian special forces executed an amphibious raid on the Russian-occupied Tendra Spit at the mouth of the Dnipro River. The operation reportedly involved the Special Operations Forces of the Artan Unit and Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR), and resulted in damage to Russian equipment, fortifications, and personnel, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency.

The Ukrainian Defense Intelligence (DIU) confirmed on August 7 that the operation targeted Russian-held territory in the northern part of the Black Sea. The raid, carried out by the Artan Active Action Unit and DIU’s Naval Center, involved a coordinated landing on Tendra Spit. The agency released a video on social media showing well-equipped soldiers deploying from vessels and engaging targets onshore.

During the raid, Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed Russian armored vehicles, including MT-LBs, an electronic warfare system, and several fortifications. The DIU stated that Russian forces suffered personnel losses, though the exact number remains undisclosed. The Ukrainian troops successfully withdrew without any casualties.

The DIU noted that this was not the first such operation on Tendra Spit, highlighting a series of successful assaults aimed at weakening Russian positions. Despite these claims, independent verification of the operation’s outcomes is lacking. Newsweek and other outlets have been unable to confirm the details provided by the Ukrainian side. The Russian Defense Ministry has not commented on the incident in its daily reports, and pro-Russian sources, such as the milblogger Rybar, have disputed the success of the Ukrainian raid, claiming that several Ukrainian boats were destroyed during the attempt.

This raid follows Ukraine’s broader strategy of launching raids across the Dnieper River and into Russian-held territories since liberating the city of Kherson and the west bank of the river in late 2022. The DIU emphasized that such operations are integral to Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to reclaim occupied territories and disrupt Russian military activities in the region. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

16 Aug 24. Russia moves thousands of troops from Ukraine to defend Kursk. Russia has moved “several thousand” troops from occupied Ukraine to defend its own territory in Kursk, according to US officials.

US officials have been trying to determine exactly how many troops have been moved but sources told CNN at least 1,000 have been diverted to the border region, where the Ukrainians launched their cross-border assault last week.

“It is apparent to us that Mr Putin and the Russian military are diverting some resources, some units, towards the Kursk Oblast to ostensibly counter what the Ukrainians are doing,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Thursday.

The move does not mean Russia has given up active military operations in the northeast of Ukraine, Mr Kirby said, before adding: “There’s still active fighting along that front.”

Kyiv has claimed that its cross-border assault, which is entering its eleventh day, has allowed its troops to take 1,150 sq km of Russian territory across more than 80 settlements.

This has forced the evacuation of around 200,000 Russians from their homes, the largest of its kind since the Second Chechen War.

(Source: Daily Telegraph)

16 Aug 24. Ukraine sets up military office in Kursk. Ukraine set up a military office in an occupied part of Kursk on Thursday as Kyiv sought to cement its control over the Russian region.

Oleksandr Syrsky, Kyiv’s top general, said his forces now hold 1,150 sq km of the border region in southern Russia.

He told Volodymyr Zelensky that his forces had complete control of Sudzha, the home of Russia’s last gas terminal for shipments to Europe, and were still advancing throughout the region.

“We are moving forward in the Kursk region,” Gen Syrsky wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

“A military commandant’s office has been created which must ensure order and also all the needs of the local population.”

Ukraine launched its daring cross-border raid into Russian territory early last week.

It was the first foreign invasion of Russian soil since the Second World War. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

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