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NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Aug 12.

12 Aug 24. Russia has failed to push back Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region despite sending in reinforcements as the incursion enters its sixth day, Ukrainian soldiers involved in its army’s operation told the Financial Times on Sunday. Speaking near the international border, the troops said they remained in Russian territory. Russian general Valery Gerasimov has repeatedly attempted to portray the situation as being under control, with the defence ministry posting videos on Sunday of fighter jets and helicopters purportedly striking columns of Ukrainian equipment. But verified videos and photographs show Ukrainian troops and equipment have advanced 30km inside Russia since the operation began on Tuesday, moving further into Kursk and occupying the town of Sudzha near the Russian border. “We are going deeper,” said Denys, a Ukrainian soldier who has made three rotations into Russian territory since the incursion began. Kyiv’s troops still had the upper hand despite Russia bringing in reinforcements, he added, as a Ukrainian fighter jet zoomed overhead. His unit, which the FT is not identifying at the request of Denys and his senior officers, had been rotated to the area from the eastern Donetsk region more than a week ago to take part in the offensive. Another soldier, Kostyantyn, said the early success of the surprise operation had “really lifted our spirits”. “We feel confident of Ukrainian victory,” he added, before driving back into the fight. (Source: FT.com)

12 Aug 24. Support for Ukraine: Second ring swap with the Czech Republic – Rheinmetall to supply further main battle tanks and armoured recovery vehicles. Rheinmetall has once again been commissioned to supply main battle tanks and armoured recovery vehicles to the Czech Republic as part of a ring swap process commissioned by the German government to support Ukraine. An agreement to this effect was signed at the end of July 2024 in Prague between representatives of both countries and Rheinmetall. The order value is in the low three-digit million euro range. The Czech armed forces will be receiving 14 Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks and one Buffalo armoured recovery vehicle from Rheinmetall. In turn, the Czech military will be transferring military equipment to Ukraine. The first vehicle is due to be shipped to the Czech Republic at the end of 2024, the rest of the tanks will be delivered till the end of April 2025 and delivery of ARV 3 Buffalo will be completed by the beginning of 2026.   As was already the case in the first ring swap with the Czech Republic in October 2022, Rheinmetall negotiated the necessary contracts in close cooperation with the German Federal Ministry of Defence and the Czech authorities and armed forces within a short period of time. Work on the vehicles has also already begun. The property of Rheinmetall, the vehicles now being made available are upgraded Leopard 2A4 MBTs formerly in the inventories of various user states. The state-of-the-art ARV 3 Buffalo armoured recovery vehicle is mounted on an enhanced Leopard 2 chassis. The “Ringtausch” (“ring swap”) is a procedure developed by the German government in cooperation with Germany’s neighbours and NATO allies to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression. Specifically, NATO member states are providing Ukraine with Soviet-era heavy equipment in exchange for readily available Western military systems. (Source: Rheinmetall)

Aug 11.

11 Aug 24. Russia appears to be building new defensive trench lines in the Kursk region, not far from a nuclear power plant, according to the BBC. It comes as Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that his military was now pushing the war onto “the aggressor’s territory”. A video analysed by the BBC showed heavy machinery next to a long line of piled earth, just south-east of the Kursk nuclear plant.  Contrasting satellite imagery of the same location captured yesterday showed what appeared to be several newly constructed trench lines in the vicinity. Russia has cast the Ukrainian attack – which military analysts say caught the Kremlin off-guard – as a major provocation, and vowed a “tough response”. Ukrainian officials, meanwhile, said it had “raised morale” and was “restoring justice”. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

Aug 09.

09 Aug 24. Ukrainian forces have carried out a bold attack, 25 miles inside the Russian border, targeting a Russian military convoy with U.S.-made HIMARS, resulting in the destruction of multiple vehicles and the deaths of numerous Russian soldiers. The incident has sharply undermined Moscow’s military credibility and prompted the Kremlin to declare a federal emergency in the region. Videos circulating online, verified by multiple sources, show the aftermath of the ambush near the village of Oktyabrskoye. Burnt-out trucks and visible bodies inside some of the vehicles reveal the severity of the attack. This ambush follows a pattern of hit-and-run tactics reminiscent of early Ukrainian strategies during the siege of Kyiv. The Ukrainian forces’ success in Kursk signals a new phase in the conflict, as Kyiv expands its operations beyond its borders. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

09 Aug 24. Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine. Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration’s sixty-third tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package, which has an estimated value of $125 million, will provide Ukraine additional capabilities to meet its most urgent needs, including:  air defense capabilities; multi-mission radars to detect and counter enemy artillery; and anti-tank weapons.

The capabilities in this announcement include:

  • Stinger missiles;
  • Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
  • 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition;
  • Multi-mission radars;
  • Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles;
  • Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
  • High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV) ambulances;
  • Small arms ammunition;
  • Demolitions equipment and munitions;
  • Equipment to protect critical national infrastructure; and
  • Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.

The United States will continue to work together with some 50 Allies and partners to ensure Ukraine’s brave defenders receive the critical capabilities needed to fight Russian aggression. (Source: U.S. DoD)

09 Aug 24. Ukraine’s military said it had captured a key gas transit point supplying Europe as Kyiv pursued its most ambitious incursion into Russian territory in a decade of war, forcing Moscow to declare a state of emergency in two regions. The unexpected offensive, which raged into a fourth day on Friday, is the largest attack by Kyiv’s forces on Russian soil, not only since President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but at least since the Kremlin’s covert invasion of Crimea and the Donbas 10 years ago. The assault aims to divert Russia’s troops from the east, expose its weaknesses and strengthen Kyiv’s position in future negotiations with Moscow, said an adviser to the government, after months of Russian gains on the more than 1,000km-long front of the grinding war within Ukraine. Late on Friday, in the first Ukrainian public confirmation of the incursion, a military brigade published a video of its soldiers at the office of Russian state energy group Gazprom at the Sudzha gas measuring station, a crucial transit post for gas supplies to Europe. “Sudzha is under the full control of Ukrainian troops,” said the 61st mechanised brigade on Telegram. Gas prices in Russia rose sharply to an annual peak, said a Gazprom representative on Telegram. A state of emergency was declared in the Russian regions of Kursk and Lipetsk, where Ukrainian forces were engaged in fierce fighting. (Source: FT.com)

Aug 08.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS (click on each to navigate below):

  • OFFENSIVES: The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence assesses that Russia’s summer offensive will wind down within one and a half to two months, though pressure remains acute across the Donbas
  • SOUTHERN: Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (GUR) has confirmed that special forces conducted a limited overnight raid on the Trendra Spit, coinciding with the Kursk offensive, but it is unlikely to have any significant military impact
  • GAS: Ukraine’s gas transit operator has confirmed that Russian gas shipments via Ukraine to Europe would continue following the capture of a gas measuring facility near the town of Sudzha (Kursk oblast)
  • FORECAST: Ukrainian forces have launched an unprecedent cross-border offensive operation into Kursk oblast, which Russian forces have so far struggled to contain
  • OFFENSIVES: On 7 August, the head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (GUR) Kyrylo Budanov assessed that the Russian summer offensive will likely wind down within one and a half to two months. Budanov stated that Ukrainian forces will remain proactive during this latter phase of the Russian offensive, suggesting that Ukraine will continue launching localised counter-attacks in a bid to contain Russian advances – though the latest Ukrainian Kursk offensive indicates that Ukrainian forces are also prioritising offensive operations to seize the battlefield initiative where possible (see FORECAST below).
  • BAKHMUT: Geolocated footage published on 5 August indicates that Russian forces have continued to advance towards the outskirts of Toretsk (Donetsk oblast). Russian forces have advanced well into central Druzhba (located due east of Toretsk) and are pushing further west through nearby Pivnichne along Tsentralna Street, which is the main highway leading to Toretsk from the east. Further south, Russian forces are also continuing to advance into central Niu York (located south-west of Toretsk), which is threatening to cut off Ukrainian forces defending the area directly east of Niu York. Ukrainian officials have denied claims that Russian forces have fully captured the town, and it appears that Ukrainian forces continue to defend the northern and eastern sectors of the settlement.
  • DONETSK: While there have been few confirmed Russian gains towards Pokrovsk over the past few days, the operational situation remains difficult for Ukrainian forces. On 8 August, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that over the past 24 hours, Russian forces launched 28 assaults along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk line. According to the General Staff, the Russian assaults focused on Karlivka, Hrodivka, Vozdvyzhenka and Zhelanne. Meanwhile, geolocated footage from 6 August indicates recent Russian advances in eastern Kostyantynivka, south-west of Donetsk City. Footage posted on 5 August by a Ukrainian brigade in the Kurakhove area (south-west of Donetsk) shows Ukrainian forces repelling roughly platoon-sized mechanised assault in the sector.
  • KHARKIV: Nothing significant to report
  • OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
  • SOUTHERN: On 7 August, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (GUR) confirmed that special forces had conducted a limited overnight raid on the Trendra Spit (a sandbar extending westwards from Russian-occupied Kherson oblast). The GUR claimed its forces had destroyed Russian armoured vehicles (MT-LB amphibious personnel carriers), an electronic warfare (EW) system as well as fortifications during the operation, publishing footage of special forces landing on the spit in boats. The timing of the operation coincides with the Ukrainian Kursk offensive, and is likely aimed at increasing pressure on Russian forces, though the isolated nature of the spit means the raid is unlikely to have a serious military impact.
  • STRIKES: Overnight on 5-6 August, Russian forces launched four Iskandr-M/Kn-23 ballistic missiles, two Kh-59 missiles and 16 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted two of the four ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv oblast as well as two Kh-59 missiles and 15 drones over Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv and Mykolaiv oblasts. In Khmelnytskyi, drones reportedly damaged an oil seed processing plant of one of Ukraine’s largest agricultural holdings, Kernel.
  • STRIKES: On 7 August, Ukrainian forces intercepted all 30 Russian Shahed-136/131 drones over Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Vinnytsia oblasts. Early on 8 August, Russian forces launched two Iskandr-M ballistic missiles, two Kh-59 missiles and four Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian forces intercepted all four drones and Kh-59 missiles over Kherson, Kirovohrad and Odesa oblasts. Russia’s Ministry of Defence reported that its forces successfully struck a drone assembling plant in an unspecified location in Ukraine.
  • STRIKES: Meanwhile, Russian authorities reported that Ukraine attacked Kursk oblast, where Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations, with seven unspecified missiles on 8 August. See FORECAST below for further analysis. Quoting unnamed sources within the Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), Ukrainian media outlets reported that the SBU destroyed a Russian Mi-28 helicopter with a first-person view (FPV) on 6 August, though we cannot confirm this. FPV drones are cheap to produce. As such, the attack represents a notable precedent in the evolution of drone warfare and underscores Kyiv’s efforts to use cheap projectiles to carry out strikes against expensive targets such as the Russian helicopter.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

  • GAS: Ukraine’s gas transit operator confirmed on 7 August that Russian gas shipments via Ukraine to Europe would continue amid unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces captured a gas measuring facility near the town of Sudzha (Kursk oblast, Russia). Sudzha is the only entry point at present through which Russian gas flows into Ukraine onward to European consumers. Some 41.6 m cubic metres (mcm) of gas are expected to transit from Russia to Europe via Ukraine today (8 August), as per the Ukrainian operator’s data.
  • GAS: About 42 mcm of gas passes through Sudzha each day currently, meaning that the flow of gas supplies to Europe is unlikely to be significantly impacted in the immediate term. Even so, if gas flows via Sudzha were to be completely halted, this would unlikely precipitate major energy insecurity in Europe given that the gas primarily goes to only Austria and Slovakia. A halt in gas flows would likely nevertheless lead to a sharp spike in European natural gas prices, though it would unlikely trigger notable shortages. Furthermore, Austria has sizeable gas reserves and alternative gas supplies can reach both countries.
  • NEGOTIATIONS: On 5 August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Kyiv’s ‘unwavering goal’ is to prepare the foundation for ending the war this year. Zelensky assessed that this objective is possible but emphasised that the end of the conflict must be ‘just’. This implies that Ukraine’s leadership is unlikely to significantly deviate from its envisioned terms for peace, principally denying any territorial concessions to Russia, in the near term. However, recent polling indicates a growing Ukrainian societal acceptance that relinquishing territory may be necessary to end the war (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 25 July 2024).
  • NEGOTIATIONS: The former Russian minister of defence, Sergei Shoigu, cautioned on 6 August that the longer Kyiv waited to enter peace talks the tougher Moscow’s terms would be. Shoigu, who now serves as the Secretary of Russia’s Security Council, claimed that Ukraine has lost 162 square miles (420 sq km) of territory and significant manpower since 14 June. This is when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his ‘conditions’ for ending the war (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 17 June 2024). While we cannot verify Shoigu’s remarks, they are almost certainly intended to increase pressure on Ukraine to enter negotiations and capitulate to Russia’s terms before the latter makes additional demands.
  • CITIZENSHIP: On 7 August, Zelensky submitted a draft law on acquiring and retaining Ukrainian citizenship to the parliament (the Verkhovna Rada). The legislation outlines that multiple citizenship should be allowed in certain circumstances, such as when Ukrainian citizens marry foreign nationals and obtain another citizenship and following the adoption of Ukrainian children to foreign parents. However, multiple citizenship will not be allowed for individuals who are Russian nationals or hail from a country that does not recognise Ukraine’s territorial integrity or sovereignty. While it is uncertain how quickly the legislation could realistically advance, Ukrainian officials have advocated for allowing dual citizenship previously.

FORECAST

OFFENSIVES: On 6 August, Ukrainian forces launched an unprecedented mechanised offensive operation across the international border into Russia’s Kursk oblast, taking a notable amount of territory and exposing significant gaps in Russia’s border defences. The operation remains ongoing and the full extent of the Ukrainian advance remains unconfirmed. Geolocated footage clearly indicates that Ukrainian forces had managed to penetrate at least six miles (10km) into Russian territory by 7 August in the Sudzha and Korenevo districts of Kursk oblast. Russian sources subsequently acknowledged on 8 August that Ukrainian forces have now taken almost complete control of the town of Sudzha (located six miles (10km) from the Ukrainian border). Some Russian sources claimed on 8 August that Ukrainian forces have reached as far north as Anastasyevka (located 17 miles (28km) north of the Ukrainian border), though this cannot be confirmed. If Ukrainian forces are penetrating this far from the international border, it is likely to become a significant operation and will likely require significant reinforcements to sustain.

The size of the Ukrainian force remains unconfirmed, but the increasing scope of the operation suggests a significant brigade-sized force. The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) stated on 6 August that Russian border troops and Federal Security Service (FSB) units repelled a series of raids undertaken by a battalion-sized force including tanks and armoured vehicles. Russia’s Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov also estimated that around 1,000 personnel were involved in the initial attack. According to some Russian sources, however, Ukrainian forces brought forward additional reserves overnight on 7-8 August. As such, the size of the operation remains unclear. Nevertheless, the commitment of such a large force remains significant given extensive Ukrainian personnel shortages on the frontline in the Donbas; the new Kursk operation is likely to be a significant drain on Ukraine’s precious manpower reserves.

The current operation is not only much larger, but fundamentally different in character, to previous raids into de jure Russian territory given regular Ukrainian army units are involved, rather than pro-Ukrainian Russian units. Previous raids into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts in March 2024 and May 2023 involved the Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Siberian Battalion and Ichkerian (Chechen) volunteers, and not regular Ukrainian units. While we cannot confirm whether LSR or RDK forces are involved in the ongoing Kursk operation, the outlet New Voice of Ukraine reported on 6 August that sources within Ukraine’s GUR stated that RDK forces were ‘definitely not involved’. For further analysis on previous raids into Kursk oblast, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 14 March 2024 and 23 May 2023.

It is notable that Ukrainian forces were able to assemble a significant offensive force without Russian forces interdicting or disrupting its preparations. We have previously assessed how the transparency of the modern battlefield (in large part due to the proliferation of drones) makes concealing large offensive forces extremely difficult. However, the apparent success of the Ukrainian operation has taken Russian border forces apparently unawares, reflecting either: significantly improved Ukrainian counter-intelligence and operational security capabilities; severe limitations in Russia’s own intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities; or the Russian command’s complacency and misinterpretation of the build-up as posing no significant offensive threat – or a combination of all of the above.

Moscow has responded to the operation by calling a Security Council meeting on 7 August, during which President Vladimir Putin described the incursion as a ‘large-scale provocation’. A state of emergency in Kursk oblast has also been issued, with security tightening around the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP), which is located around 35 miles (56km) north of Sudzha. Unconfirmed reports indicate that the Ukrainians are still making significant advances deeper into Russian territory at time of writing, reflecting severe limitations in Russia’s response. It remains unclear how quickly Russian forces can contain the Ukrainian advances, and whether Ukraine will force Russia to redeploy units from frontline positions in eastern and southern Ukraine. This is likely one of the objectives of the Kursk operation.

If the current Kursk operation is primarily devised as a diversionary effort, there is currently no indication that Russian forces are slowing down their offensive operations in the Donbas to respond to the Kursk operation. This could yet change depending on whether Russia’s internal security forces (namely Federal Security Service (FSB) and Rosgvardia) and conscript forces are sufficient to contain the Ukrainian operation. If not, one of the likely objectives of the Ukrainian Kursk operation – to force Russia to redeploy troops and therefore relieve pressure on Ukrainian forces in Donetsk oblast – could realistically come to fruition. However, Russian sources reported on 8 August that elements of ‘Wagner Group’ forces are now being sent to Kursk as part of the Russian response, alongside Chechen Akhmat units. If accurate, this would indicate that Russian forces are likely attempting to leverage reserves and internal troops to contain the Kursk offensive, rather than disrupt ongoing offensive operations by diverting troops already committed in Ukraine.

Ultimately, one of the key objectives of the Kursk operation is likely to provide Ukraine with a stronger negotiating position if and when ceasefire or peace talks begin in the coming 12 months. The seeming lack of a rapid Russian reaction will likely provide Ukrainian forces with an opportunity to dig in and establish defences, if their objective is to hold this newly acquired territory. If Ukrainian forces are able to consolidate their new positions quickly, Russian forces will likely struggle to retake the territory without deploying significant forces. This could realistically provide Ukraine with a potential ‘bargaining chip’ in future talks, which Zelensky indicated he wanted to set conditions for by the end of the year (see NEGOTIATIONS above). It therefore remains realistic that the Ukrainian command conceived of the Kursk operation as a ‘reverse Kharkiv operation’. This would likely aim to offset any potential advantage Russia gained following its own Kharkiv offensive, if and when negotiations to end the war begin. However, whether the operation will succeed in achieving these or any other objectives remains unclear. For further analysis on the growing pressure on Kyiv to enter into negotiations, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 1 July 2024.

  • Russia: New worm sustains information-theft, disruption risks to high-value targets. On 7 August, the cyber security firm Kaspersky reported that threat actors have been using a new worm, ‘CMoon’, to compromise high-value targets in Russia in an information-stealing campaign since early July. The unnamed threat actors replaced legitimate links on a gas company’s website with the CMoon executable to distribute the malware to targeted users. Upon installation, the worm monitors connected USB devices and other removable media to steal information. Additionally, the worm boasts several obfuscation techniques and can initiate distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks, highlighting the sophistication of the operation. Although the malicious file has since been removed from the gas website, we assess that the worm’s ability to propagate autonomously elevates risks of additional infections and impact. Russian entities are often targeted in information-stealing campaigns amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. We assess that this trend points to sustained information theft and disruption risks in the long term.

Aug. 05.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS:

  • BAKHMUT: Russian forces continue to make slow but steady advances across Donetsk oblast, placing growing pressure on Ukrainian personnel shortages
  • STRIKES: Possible Ukrainian successes targeting Russian S-400 and S-500 systems in occupied Crimea indicate Ukrainian aims to suppress Russian air defence in preparation for future F-16 operations
  • AID: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed that the first F-16 fighter jets have arrived in Ukraine and are already undertaking combat missions, though they will not prove a silver bullet
  • FORECAST: The largest prisoner exchange between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War is unlikely to indicate imminent readiness to facilitate peace talks in Ukraine
  • OFFENSIVES: On 2 August, Ukrainian Commander of Joint Forces Brigadier General Andriy Hnatov assessed that Russian forces are currently trying to force Ukraine to commit personnel to current defensive operations in a bid to prevent the creation of reserve forces for future counter-offensive operations. Hnatov assessed that the Russian Kharkiv offensive in May was launched due to Russian fears that Ukraine would utilise growing personnel reserves to stabilise the frontline and set conditions for future counter-offensive operations. This aligns with our assessment in recent months that the ongoing Russian summer offensive is designed to spread Ukrainian forces thin, disrupt troop rotations and exacerbate (and exploit) personnel shortages – all of which will undermine Ukraine’s ability to prepare for future counter-offensive operations in early 2025.
  • BAKHMUT: Geolocated footage published on 1 and 2 August indicates that Russian forces have successfully crossed the Siverskyi-Donets-Donbas canal and established positions on its right bank in the Zhovtnevyi microdistrict of Chasiv Yar. Russian forces have been attempting to penetrate the canal for months, but light forces that had previously crossed the waterway had been consistently pushed back. At present it appears that Russian forces have succeeded, at least in the short term, in consolidating a small presence on the western bank of the canal. However, it remains unclear whether Russian forces will be able to expand this beachhead to further penetrate Chasiv Yar’s eastern defences in the short term.
  • BAKHMUT: Russian forces continue to make slow but steady advances along the Toretsk axis, with Russian forces likely approaching the outskirts of Toretsk itself for the first time. Growing (but as of yet unconfirmed) reports indicate that Russian forces are positioned to move into the outskirts of Toretsk after consolidating recent advances into the satellite towns of Zalizne and Druzhba (located to the south-east). Most notably, Russian sources have claimed in recent days that their forces have pushed several kilometres west of Zalizne – but we cannot confirm the extent of these advances at present.
  •  Russian forces are highly likely currently prioritising efforts to push west of Zalizne and north into central Niu York in a bid to encircle Ukrainian forces positioned between the two towns. While it remains unclear whether a Russian encirclement will succeed here, further Russian advances into central Niu York and advances west of Zalizne will increase pressure on Ukrainian forces to the east to withdraw. Given Ukrainian personnel shortages across this sector, it remains unlikely that Ukrainian forces would risk losing troops in an encirclement, so a Ukrainian withdrawal is increasingly likely in the coming weeks.
  • DONETSK: The operational situation north-west of Avdiivka towards Pokrovsk is becoming increasingly critical for Ukrainian forces, and further Russian advances are likely in the coming weeks. On 2 August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that the situation towards Pokrovsk remains increasingly difficult. On 3 August, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are focusing offensive operations towards Zhelanne, south-east of Pokrovsk. Geolocated footage from 4 August confirms Russian advances within Vesele, east of Pokrovsk. These advances likely confirm that most of the settlement is now under Russian control.
  • DONETSK: Russia will leverage Ukrainian weaknesses and its own numerical superiority to advance towards Pokrovsk, supported by intense guided glide bomb strikes. Reports indicate that Russian forces now maintain positions 11 miles (18 km) from the settlement. The steady advances towards this strategic logistical hub are likely a result of Moscow’s numerical advantage and intense strikes and shelling, including glide bombs. Russian advances are accompanied by an intense barrage of glide bombs and strikes with anti-tank missiles. Russia possibly operates about 40,000 troops along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk line against roughly 12,000 Ukrainian troops. Ukrainian commentator Kostyantyn Mashovets claimed on 1 August that Ukrainian forces defending the Pokrovsk frontline are also suffering from inferior equipment and are struggling to slow Russian advances; he warned that an operationally significant breakthrough in the area is possible by the end of August.
  • DONETSK: Meanwhile, over the past few days, Russian troops made confirmed gains west of Donetsk city. Geolocated footage from 4 August confirms recent Russian advances within northern Kransohorivka, located west of Donetsk City.
  • KHARKIV: Nothing significant to report
  • OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
  • SOUTHERN: Along the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia oblast border, Russian forces continue to very slowly advance north along the Mokri Yaly River valley. Geolocated footage published on 4 August indicates that Russian forces advanced north of Urozhaine, located five miles (8km) south of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast), though overall progress remains slow.
  • STRIKES: On 3 August, Russia launched two S-300 missiles, two Kh-31P missiles and 29 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukraine destroyed 24 drones over Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, Sumy, Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr oblasts. Critical infrastructure was reportedly damaged in Donetsk, Kherson and Vinnytsia oblasts.
  • STRIKES: On 4 August, Russian forces launched two S-300 missiles, two Kh-59 missiles and five Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences only intercepted the drones over Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kirovohrad and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Local authorities reported that Russian forces hit critical infrastructure in Kherson oblast.
  • STRIKES: Early on 5 August, Ukrainian forces intercepted all 24 Shahed-136/131 drones launched by Russia. The unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were destroyed over Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy and Vinnytsia oblasts.
  • STRIKES: Meanwhile, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that overnight on 2-3 August, air defences intercepted 74 Ukrainian drones. The projectiles were destroyed over Belgorod, Kursk, Oryol, Ryazan, Voronezh oblasts, as well as Krasnodar Krai. Local residents reported explosions in Oryol and Ryazan oblasts. The Ukrainian General Staff claimed that the attack hit fuel storage facilities in Belgorod, Kursk and Rostov oblasts. Such attacks are part of Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to disrupt oil supplies to the frontline amid wider efforts to degrade Russian military logistics in regions close to the border.
  • STRIKES: The Ukrainian General Staff also claimed that the strike successfully hit ammunition depots storing glide bombs located on the Morozovsk airfield in the Rostov oblast. The attack underscores Kyiv’s efforts to degrade Russia’s capability to deploy glide bombs, which have been used extensively and to great effect across the front line to undermine Ukrainian positions. However, Russia likely retains large quantities of such projectiles, which remain relatively cheap and easy to produce, allowing it to offset losses caused by these attacks.
  • STRIKES: On 3 August, the Ukrainian General Staff claimed that its forces successfully struck and sank the Kilo-class submarine the Rostov-on-Don in the port of Sevastopol (Crimea), on 2 August. Satellite imagery shows damage to the submarine, though the extent of the damage remains uncertain. The submarine was previously severely damaged by a Ukrainian strike in September 2023. The General Staff also claimed that Ukrainian forces simultaneously struck four S-400 air defence systems across Crimea. A Ukrainian Navy official additionally stated that Kyiv had destroyed an S-400 and an S-500 air defence system deployed to protect the Kerch Strait Bridge. While such attacks have yet to be visually confirmed, they underscore Kyiv’s continued efforts to degrade Russian air defence capabilities. If confirmed, they would also indicate growing Ukrainian successes in suppressing Russian air defence systems, which will prove vital to enable F-16 combat strike missions closer to the frontline (see AID below).
  • STRIKES: On 4 August, Ukrainian forces continued strikes against oil infrastructure in Rostov oblast and Russian-occupied Luhansk. An oil storage facility was reportedly damaged in Azov (Rostov oblast). Meanwhile, Russian Luhansk occupation authorities reported that air defences intercepted four of the eight Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS). The remaining four missiles reportedly hit a fuel storage infrastructure in Luhansk city.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

  • AID: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on 4 August that the first Western-supplied F-16 fighter jets have arrived in Ukraine and that they are already undertaking combat missions. Zelensky did not specify how many had been received, however. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi later stated that their arrival will allow Ukrainian forces to intercept more Russian missiles and aircraft – reinforcing our assessment that the limited number of aircraft will be utilised primarily in an air defence role. Reports emerged on 4 August that around 20 Ukrainian pilots are expected to be capable of flying the F-16s this year. This means that Ukraine realistically will be able to deploy around 10 F-16s in combat as each aircraft requires at least two pilots. As we have previously assessed, the aircraft will not prove a silver bullet in the coming months and will only moderately impact the battlefield until such time as Ukraine can deploy such aircraft at scale. For further analysis, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 29 July 2024.
  • AID: Zelensky stated on 4 August that Ukraine will discuss with NATO the prospect of establishing a coalition of countries that would help shoot down Russian missiles over Ukrainian territory. Zelensky stated that the technical possibility of using combat aircraft from states bordering Ukraine must be considered. Nevertheless, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has previously voiced his opposition to Poland shooting down Russian missiles over Ukraine. As such, the bloc is unlikely to agree to such an arrangement in the near term despite spillover risks during Russian strikes facing states neighbouring Ukraine. Nevertheless, the prospect of US and wider allied involvement in protecting Israel against any potential Iranian attacks in the coming weeks will only increase calls for a similar arrangement in Ukraine.
  • BUDGET: On 5 August, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Ukraine received a grant worth USD 3.9 bn from the US via the World Bank. Shmyhal stated that this is the first tranche of direct budget support from Washington DC this year, with Kyiv set to receive a total of USD 7.8bn in direct budgetary assistance from the US in 2024. According to Shmyhal, this assistance will allow Ukraine to ‘confidently pass’ the financial period. The funds will be used to finance priority budget expenditures, such as paying the salaries of doctors, rescue workers and teachers, pensions and social benefits. While the grant will likely moderately alleviate budgetary pressure, Ukraine’s socio-economic health landscape will almost certainly remain challenging over the coming months.
  • SABOTAGE: Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported on 5 August that it had foiled a large-scale sabotage network operating at the behest of Russia’s Security Service (FSB). According to the SBU, the network was working across six Ukrainian regions and collected intelligence for attacks against Ukrainian military positions and critical infrastructure. The SBU said it had arrested nine individuals, among those two officials from city councils in Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk oblast) and Yuzhne (Odesa oblast). The individuals were reportedly scouted from pro-Kremlin Telegram channels. The latest arrests reinforce our assessment that Ukraine will highly likely remain vulnerable to Russian sabotage plots over the coming months despite efforts to root out Russian operatives.

FORECAST

NEGOTIATIONS: Russia, the US and a range of other countries participated in the largest prisoner swap between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War on 1 August, exchanging 24 people. Parties involved in the deal were reportedly engaged in talks for more than two years, underscoring the continuation of back-door diplomacy between Western states and Moscow despite relations being significantly strained. While the exchange is notable, it is highly unlikely to indicate a thawing of tensions between Russia and the West.

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan disclosed on 1 August that negotiations between Russia and the US about prisoner swaps and any potential talks to end the war are not connected. Rather, Sullivan stated that the two matters operate on ‘separate tracks’, with peace negotiations a more complex issue on which the US and its allies will seek to support Kyiv when it is ready for negotiations. Nevertheless, Moscow may realistically have used the prisoner exchange to create the impression that it can negotiate in good faith and make deals beneficial to Western interests amid growing pressure for negotiations to end the war.

However, Russia is highly unlikely willing to entertain concessions to cease fighting in the foreseeable future, particularly relinquishing Ukrainian territory that it occupies. As we have assessed for numerous months, almost all indicators point to Russia maintaining its maximalist war goals in Ukraine and is unwilling to end the fighting while it retains the battlefield initiative and believes it can achieve further conquests through military means. As such, the likelihood of Russia engaging in negotiations to conclude the conflict with honest intentions and consider Ukraine’s terms is low in the short term, though growing pressure from a potential Trump administration in early 2025 could realistically set conditions to at least begin (if not necessarily complete) ceasefire talks.

Ultimately, the prisoner exchange has benefited Russia as it has likely illustrated its ability to return overseas operatives, which will likely aim to bolster Moscow’s intelligence capabilities and its ability to recruit and retain intelligence assets. Western interests returned eight prisoners, including Vadim Krasikov, a colonel in Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) who was serving a life sentence in Germany for murdering an exiled Chechen-Georgian dissident. The US also released two men convicted of cyber crimes, while Slovenia freed a couple arrested on espionage charges in 2022. These are individuals who the Kremlin highly likely regards as useful state assets, with efforts to return them likely aimed at ensuring loyalty and confidence among other Russian operatives overseas.

Meanwhile, those freed from Russian custody included Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who was sentenced to 16 years in prison for espionage in July. We previously correctly assessed that his quick trial possibly indicated that an exchange was possible. Several of the people released had worked with Russia’s late leading opposition figure, Alexei Navalny, who died in an Arctic penal colony in February. (Source: Sibylline)

 

08 Aug 24. Sergey Mironov – Attacking the Kursk region, Kiev will strengthen Russia’s military operation, not Ukraine’s negotiating positions

The leader of the “A Just Russia – Patriots – For Truth” party and faction in the State Duma, Sergey Mironov, is sure that the intensity of the Russian special military operation will increase after Ukraine’s attack on the Kursk region, which will lead not to negotiations, but to the surrender of the Kiev regime.

“Officials in Kiev have been playing it silent for two days, without commenting on the attack on peaceful towns and villages in the Kursk region. Then, they admitted that the invasion would have a “positive impact” on possible negotiations with Russia. But there will be no negotiations, there will be a capitulation of the Kiev regime, and a special military operation will be brought to its logical end. Russia does not trade its lands; instead, we have enough forces to protect them. No one should have such illusions.

The goal of the terrorist attack, which targets civilians, including pregnant women and journalists, is obvious: to intimidate the Russian population and create the appearance that Ukraine is capable of resisting Russia. But this military escapade – in fact, the invasion of an internationally recognized foreign territory – has already been criticized even by the leading Western media, which usually support Ukraine. This time, Zelensky and his junta will have no support, no concessions, and no future. By attacking the Kursk region, they will achieve exactly the opposite of what they expected.”

 

07 Aug 24. Putin calls alleged Ukrainian incursion of Kursk region ‘large-scale provocation.’

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday accused Ukraine of a “large-scale provocation” amid reports of an incursion on the Kursk region.

Putin’s statement came after Russia claimed Ukrainian troops backed by 11 tanks and more than 20 armored vehicles attacked the region on Tuesday. Ukraine did not immediately comment publicly on the alleged attack.

“As you know, the Kyiv regime has undertaken yet another large-scale provocation, delivering indiscriminate fire from various types of weapons, including missiles, at civilian buildings, residential houses, and ambulances,” Putin said in comments shared by the Kremlin on Telegram.

According to Russian Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov in televised remarks Wednesday, Ukraine’s “advance” into Kursk was met by Russian forces “continuing to destroy the adversary in areas directly adjacent to the Russian-Ukrainian border.”

Gerasimov said Ukraine used up to 1,000 troops for the cross-border attack.

The Russian Defense Ministry said Wednesday that “air and missile strikes, artillery fire as well as units of the State Border Covering Force prevented the enemy from advancing deep into the territory of the Russian Federation.”

Russian officials and thousands of Russian residents in the area fled the fighting. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/UPI)

 

07 Aug 24. UAV takes down helicopter in air-to-air first. A first-person view (FPV) ‘drone’ struck a helicopter in the first successful targeted attack of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) on a manned aircraft in flight ever recorded.

FPV footage released by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on 7 August showed the UAV of an undetermined type target the tail rotor of a Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) Mil Mi-28 ‘Havoc’ attack helicopter, reportedly over the Russian region of Kursk.

The footage ended at the moment of impact so it was not possible to determine if the UAV was fitted with a warhead and if that warhead detonated. However, the closing speed and the UAV striking the unprotected tail rotor suggest that the helicopter was downed in the incident.

At least two other Russian helicopters (another Mi-28 and a Kamov Ka-52 ‘Hokum-B’) were reported to have been brought down by the Ukrainian forces in the same area and at about the same time, but it is unclear if those were a result of FPV drones.

Russian pilots had previously posted at least one other event where a Mil Mi-35 ‘Hind-E’ assault helicopter was unsuccessfully engaged by a Ukrainian FPV multicopter, but this marked the first time that a successful engagement of this nature had been documented anywhere in the world.

The release of this latest footage came about 21 months after the Ukrainian forces recorded the first ever air-to-air combat between two UAVs. (Source: Janes)

 

06 Aug 24. Ukraine Uses Guided Ammunition for Drones. The Russian military reported the use of laser-guided bombs by Ukrainian bomber drones. A photo of the drone and the ammunition was published by the VictoryDrones Telegram channel.

A Ukrainian heavy multi-rotor drone was shot down by the Russian occupiers over their positions while it was looking for targets.

A corrected bomb with an optical guidance system was found on board on one of the suspensions. The body of the high-explosive munition bears the marking BK-3OF and a serial number, which may indicate serial production.

In addition to its name, the notch on the case also indicates its purpose, which affects the formation of fragments of the same size.  An optical guidance device is installed in the nose of the BK-3OF ammunition. According to the author of the photo, the projectile is guided by a reflected laser beam.

It is known that the Ukrainian defense industry has long been working on adjusted ammunition to increase the effectiveness of drone bombers.

In particular, this type of weapon was developed as part of the innovative projects of the Brave1 military technology development cluster.

Currently, Ukrainian nighttime unmanned bombers remain one of the most effective means of destroying Russian equipment and personnel behind enemy lines. Depending on the modification, their range is 20-40 kilometers. In addition to free-fall and now adjusted munitions, the bombers are also actively used for remote mining of roads in the frontline area, which significantly undermines the occupiers’ logistics.

Photo: Ukrainian BK-3OF high-explosive guided ammunition, August 2024 –(Source: UAS VISION/Militarnyi)

 

07 Aug 24. First Photo of Ukrainian Skynex Air Defense System Supplied by Germany. For the first time, the Western Air Command has released images of a camouflaged and dismounted Oerlikon Revolver Gun Mk3, part of the two Skynex air defense systems supplied by Germany to Ukraine. These new images are part of the celebrations of the 20th anniversary of the Ukrainian Air Force, highlighting the German-supplied air defense systems such as the IRIS-T SLM and Gepard SPAAG.

The Oerlikon Revolver Gun Mk3 is a 35 mm remote-controlled high-precision air defense gun equipped with an integrated tracking radar and an electro-optical sensor unit. Designed for various autonomous missions, it can receive and process target data from 3D or 2D search radars or higher-order control systems.

Its rapid-fire capability, combined with Oerlikon Ahead air burst ammunition, makes it highly effective against conventional and emerging air threats, including drones, rockets, artillery, and missiles. The system is mounted on an ISO 1D compatible platform with retractable hydraulic feet for easy transport and deployment.

The gun has an effective combat range of up to 4,000 meters and can fire up to 1,000 rounds per minute. It is equipped with an X-band or Ku-band tracking radar and a modular electro-optical sensor unit that enables visual target identification. Engagement management is conducted by the command center or via a remote gun console that can handle up to eight guns. The weapon and its ammunition are fully qualified and in service on land and sea platforms.

Germany has supplied four IRIS-T SLM fire units, 52 Gepard SPAAGs, and an unspecified number of Cheetah SPAAGs (15 pledged) to Ukraine. However, the Cheetah SPAAGs could theoretically also be supplied by the United States.

These deliveries are part of ongoing efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense capabilities in response to increasing threats. The IRIS-T SLM systems, known for their ability to intercept medium-range aerial targets, represent a significant enhancement of Ukraine’s air defense. The Gepard SPAAGs, equipped with automatic cannons capable of neutralizing low-altitude aircraft and helicopters, provide an additional layer of protection.

The images of the Oerlikon Revolver Gun Mk3 demonstrate a crucial component of Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. Integrated into the Skynex systems, this gun is renowned for its precision and rapid firing, posing a formidable threat to enemy aircraft.

Germany’s support for Ukraine also includes the delivery of Cheetah SPAAGs, although their exact origin remains to be confirmed. These mobile defense systems play an essential role in providing close-range protection against aerial attacks.

These contributions are part of a broader initiative by Germany and its allies to support Ukraine in modernizing its defense capabilities. By enhancing air defense systems, Ukraine can better prepare to respond to threats and ensure the security of its airspace. (Source: UAS VISION/Army Recognition)

 

06 Aug 24. Why the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk is next in the sights of the Russian invaders. As Russian forces continue their push into eastern Ukraine, one city in particular is in Moscow’s sights.

During the Second World War, Pokrovsk was occupied first by the Italians, then in 1941 by the German Army with many of its residents transferred to labour camps in Austria before it was eventually liberated by Soviet forces in September 1943 – 5,000 of its residents were killed.

Now, it’s once again facing a possible occupation, this time by Russian invaders, part of Vladimir Putin’s so-called ‘Special Operation’.

The city is a key logistics hub, a staging point for men and material heading to the frontline, including Ukraine’s battle-hardened 47th Mechanized Brigade, equipped with Leopard 2 tanks.

For Russia the city has become a prize, to be taken at all cost.

But Moscow’s summer offensive has not gone to plan.

The Kremlin wanted to take full control of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, but with $60bn of US aid finally flowing into Ukraine it was forced to scale back its ambitions.

Seizing Pokrovsk, like Bakhmut or Avdivvka before it, would represent at least some small victory for Russian forces and Russia’s president in particular. Moscow is believed to have deployed 20 regiments and brigades across a salient, or bulge, to the east of Pokrovsk, possibly as many as 40,000 troops. Facing them are half a dozen Ukrainian brigades, possibly as few as 12,000 soldiers. President Zelensky says Ukraine does have brigades in reserve, but they are not fully staffed or equipped, meaning weary combat troops cannot be rotated out. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an influential US research group, says the Russians are trying to achieve a tactical encirclement of under-manned Ukrainian forces. (Source: forces.net)

 

06 Aug 24. Moscow said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces attempted one of the largest incursions into Russia since the start of its full-scale invasion, but that its forces managed to fend off the attack. The Russian defence ministry claimed that “up to three hundred troops” from Ukraine’s 22nd mechanised brigade, “supported by 11 tanks and more than 20 armoured combat vehicles” had attacked its border units near Nikolayevo-Daryino and Oleshnya in Kursk region around 8am local time. Local authorities said at least two people died in the offensive. The region’s acting governor Alexei Smirnov wrote on Telegram that shelling had killed one woman while a man had died in a separate drone attack. He called the situation “difficult” and urged residents to shelter in “rooms without windows and with solid walls”. Russian forces were “beating back the attacks and inflicting fire damage on the enemy”, the defence ministry said, including through “the effective use of military aviation” against Ukraine’s forces. A video published by eyewitnesses on Telegram shows two Russian fighter jets zooming over a highway at low altitude as black smoke rose from a burning vehicle on the Russian side of the border region. A group of Russian reserve forces were deployed to the area, where the ministry claimed to have destroyed sixteen Ukrainian armoured vehicles. Ukraine’s political and military leaders did not comment on the attack, in line with the country’s policy to neither confirm nor deny active operations on Russian soil. Its military and security services did not respond to requests for comment. But Andriy Kovalenko, a senior official with the Ukrainian national security and defence council, hinted at Kyiv’s involvement, writing on Telegram that Russia was “lying” about stopping Kyiv’s forces from penetrating the border. “Russia does not control the border” in Kursk, he wrote on Telegram. The incursion appeared to be one of the largest Ukrainian ground attacks on Russian soil since President Vladimir Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of the country in 2022. Fighting was still raging more than 10 hours after it began, according to Russian media reports and posts by pro-Kremlin military bloggers on Telegram. Russia’s border regions, particularly Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod, have come under assault by Ukrainian forces on multiple occasions since March 2022. In most instances, the attacks were led by anti-Putin Russian citizens fighting for Kyiv in military units operating under the command of Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate. In some instances, armoured vehicles and weapons provided by the US were used in the assaults. (Source: FT.com)

 

06 Aug 24. UK government and defence industry boost support for Ukraine.

Minister for Defence Procurement and Industry Maria Eagle met with Ukrainian counterparts and UK defence industry leaders in Ukraine.

Minister for Defence Procurement and Industry Maria Eagle meeting with Ukrainian counterparts.

  • UK government and defence industry leaders visit Ukraine.
  • Leaders initiate negotiations for contracts under the Defence Export Support Treaty.
  • This will enable Ukraine to access UK Export Finance to acquire military equipment from UK companies.

Minister for Defence Procurement and Industry Maria Eagle met with Ukrainian counterparts and UK defence industry leaders in Ukraine in recent days to initiate negotiations for contracts under the Defence Export Support Treaty, signed during President Zelenskyy’s visit to the UK two weeks ago.

The treaty, signed by Defence Secretary John Healey and Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov on 19 July, will enable Ukraine to draw on £3.5 bn of export finance to acquire military equipment from UK companies. This will help to boost both the UK’s and Ukraine’s defence industrial bases and support investment in further military capabilities.

Minister for Defence Procurement and Industry Maria Eagle said:

“The UK stands united with Ukraine. Our government has already pledged to step up support, confirming £3bn a year to support Ukraine and a new package of crucial ammunition, anti-armour missiles and artillery guns.

“My visit is another demonstration of our commitment to work in partnership with industry to boost production of essential military kit, both for Ukraine and to replenish UK stocks.”

The Minister met with Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Strategic Industries for European Integration, Serhiy Boyev, and the Ukrainian National Armaments Director, Oleksandr Serhii, and toured UK industrial facilities in Ukraine, seeing first-hand how the UK is enhancing Ukraine’s industrial capacity.

The Minister’s visit comes just weeks after she and the Defence and Business Secretaries met with President Zelenskyy and industry leaders in London. From industrial sites at home, to facilities in Ukraine, the UK defence industry has been providing critical equipment to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Working with local partners, UK firms are providing maintenance and repair for UK-supplied weapons and helping to get vehicles and equipment back onto operations from facilities in Ukraine. From recommitting to spending £3bn a year of military support to the Government’s recent commitment to fast-track deliveries, the UK continues to stand with Ukraine.  (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

 

02 Aug 24. Russian troops inch forward in Ukraine’s east with waves of bombs and infantry.

  • Summary
  • Pressure growing on strategic hub Pokrovsk
  • Russia weekly gains among largest since spring – analyst
  • Number of civilians fleeing area surges

Russian assaults are raising pressure on the strategic eastern logistics hub of Pokrovsk, Ukraine said on Friday, as waves of guided bombs and infantry lead to some of Moscow’s largest territorial gains since the spring.

The push is fuelling a surge in civilians fleeing, with requests for evacuation in the area increasing about tenfold over the past two weeks, according to a volunteer helping people leave.

Russian forces have been steadily inching forward on several fronts in the eastern Donetsk region, staging particularly fierce attacks near Pokrovsk with Kyiv’s troops stretched thin 29 months since Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Russia’s gains of around 57 square km (22 square miles) in the space of a week are the third largest recorded since April after they made only modest gains in June, Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with the Black Bird Group, told Reuters.

Russian forces are using warplanes and artillery fire to support waves of infantry assaults in the area near Pokrovsk, Ruslan Muzychuk, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s National Guard said in televised remarks.

“These assaults are not always supported by armoured vehicles, often it is infantry assaults,” he said, flagging the bombing by Russian warplanes as a particular problem.

“It’s a significant threat … because the Pokrovsk and Toretsk fronts are taking a large share of the daily aviation strikes carried out on the positions of Ukrainian defenders.”

Russia’s Ministry of Defence said its forces had captured five settlements in the Donetsk region in the past week.

Russia’s use of warplanes to fire guided bombs was crucial for Moscow’s battlefield tactics, said Valeriy Romanenko, a Kyiv-based aviation expert, who compared it to a “conveyor belt”.

“The Russians are not piercing our defence, they are pushing it back. They are advancing 100, 150, 200 metres every day using this tactic: dropping guided bombs, then a ‘meat assault’, (and if those are) repelled, dropping guided bombs again, a ‘meat assault’ again.”

He said the supply of U.S. F-16 fighters to Ukraine could disrupt that dynamic if the jets were able to threaten Russian warplanes, but that such operations were unlikely for now given the risk it would present for the new pilots operating expensive jets.

Paroinen said the Russian offensives around the settlements of Toretsk and Niu York as well as the one to the east of Pokrovsk around the villages of Ocheretyne and Prohres had created a “double crisis” for Ukraine towards the end of June.

That, he said, followed the Russian offensive into the northeastern Kharkiv region, which was halted by Ukraine, but opened a new front and spread the defenders extremely thin.

‘THEY ARE DESTROYING EVERYTHING’

Roman Buhayov, an evacuation driver from humanitarian organization East SOS, told Reuters that the number of requests for evacuation in the area had increased about tenfold over the past two weeks.

On Friday, he drove a bus evacuating residents from Novohrodivka, a town with a pre-war population of some 14,000 near Pokrovsk. It now lies around 10 km from the front line, which inches closer each day.

Antonina Kalashnikova, 62, and her disabled son Denys, 34, evacuated their pummelled home by taking Buhayov’s bus to Pokrovsk where she spoke to Reuters.

Together with their neighbour, they arrived to the town with all of their possessions reduced to a few market bags before continuing their journey to the southern city of Mykolaiv.

“They started bombing heavily and it became extremely frightening. We didn’t sleep all night, and we decided to leave,” Kalashnikova said. “They are destroying everything.” (Source: Reuters)

 

03 Aug 24. Ukrainian military says it attacked Russian airfield, oil depots. Ukraine’s military said on Saturday it had attacked Russia’s Morozovsk airfield and a number of oil depots and fuel storage facilities in three Russian regions overnight.

The attack on the airfield hit an ammunition depot where Russian forces stored guided aerial bombs among other equipment, the military said.

“Russian combat aviation must be destroyed wherever it is, by all effective means. It is also quite fair to strike at Russian airfields. And we need this joint solution with our partners – a security solution,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

The Ukrainian president has repeatedly called on his Western allies for permission to use their weapons for long-range attacks on Russia, in addition to striking military targets close to the border.

He said on Saturday that Russian forces had used over 600 guided aerial bombs to attack Ukraine in the past week.

The attack on oil depots and fuel and lubricant storage facilities in Belgorod, Kursk and Rostov regions set fire to at least two oil tanks, according to the Ukrainian military report.

In Russia, local officials reported that tanks at a fuel storage depot in the Kamensky district of Rostov region caught fire as a result of a drone attack.

The regional governor of Belgorod also said Ukraine-launched drones caused a fire at an oil storage depot there, adding that the fire was extinguished and no one was injured.

Ukraine has dramatically stepped up its use of long-range drones this year to attack Russian oil facilities, attempting to damage sites fueling Russian forces and the country’s economy in Moscow’s 29-month-old invasion. (Source: Reuters)

 

02 Aug 24. Ukraine conflict: RMK Marine launches second Mazepa-class corvette for Ukraine. The second Mazepa (MILGEM)-class corvette under construction for the Ukrainian Navy, Hetman Ivan Vyhovskyi , has officially been launched, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced on 2 August.

The launch ceremony, which was attended by Ukrainian Minister of Defence Rustem Umerov and the First Lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska, was held at RMK Marine’s shipyard in Tuzla, Istanbul, on 1 August.

RMK Marine is building the two vessels under a framework agreement signed by the Ukrainian MoD and the Turkish Defence Industry Agency (SSB) in December 2020. Turkish engineering company STM has overall responsibility for the programme.

Hetman Ivan Vyhovskyi started construction on 2 October 2022 and was laid down on 18 August 2023.

Meanwhile, work on first-of-class Hetman Ivan Mazepa (F 211) continues to make progress. The lead ship was launched alongside the steel-cutting ceremony of the second ship on 2 October 2022 and has been on sea trials since May 2024.

The Mazepa class is based on the Turkish Navy’s four 99m Ada (MILGEM)-class corvettes that entered service between 2011 and 2019.

The ships in service with the Turkish Navy have an overall length of 99m, a top speed of 29kt, a standard range of 3,500n miles at 15 kt, and carry a crew of 93, with accommodation for an additional 13 personnel. The ships feature a flight deck and hangar that can accommodate a 10 tonne S70 Seahawk helicopter.

Four corvettes built to the modified MILGEM design have also been ordered by Pakistan, with first-of-class Babur. (Source: Janes)

 

02 Aug 24. Ukraine sinks $300m Russian submarine. Vessel was undergoing repairs after it was damaged in a strike in September last year. Ukraine claims it sank a $300m Russian submarine that is believed to have been undergoing repairs after a strike on it last year.

It said Rostov-on-Don, the Kilo-class submarine, was hit during a bombardment on occupied Crimea on Friday evening.

Using long-range US ATACMS missiles, it destroyed several air defence systems and the Rostov-on-Don, which was capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence said: “A Russian submarine went to the bottom of the Black Sea.

“Great work, warriors. The Black Sea fish will enjoy their new home.”

The Rostov-on-Don was reportedly one of four submarines operated by Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Its demise will likely fuel concerns among Russian authorities that spies are tipping off Ukrainian commanders on the best moments to attack.

H I Sutton, an independent naval analyst, said the submarine was in the middle of repairs when it was attacked, after being damaged in a Ukrainian strike last year. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

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