NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

Sponsored by Bertin Exensor

 

www.exensor.com

 

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Military And Security Developments

Jul 25.

Executive summary

• In our most likely three-month scenario, positional fighting continues to prevent major battlefield breakthroughs on either side.

• In our most likely 12-month scenario, the war evolves into a broadly stable attritional conflict that protracts into 2025.

• The second round of France’s snap parliamentary elections did not result in a victory for the hard-right; this has likely improved the prospect of continued French military assistance to Ukraine. Meanwhile, the UK’s new Labour government will likely maintain military support for Ukraine over the coming months.

• Developments over the coming month in the US will likely continue to have a significant impact on the trajectory of support for Ukraine after November’s election. Vice President Kamala Harris will likely become the Democratic Party’s nominee for the presidential election. A Harris administration would likely see a continuation of the current administration’s Ukraine policy, ensuring sustained US assistance for Ukraine.

Other key triggers, warnings and indicators to watch in August include sustained energy insecurity and socio-economic health risks despite the risk of default having decreased. Ammunition shortages will highly likely endure, though the delivery of additional shells will modestly alleviate some pressure.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS 

• OFFENSIVE: Although Russia has made tactical gains across the frontline in recent months, Ukrainian Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi assessed that these are localised and not operational breakthroughs that carry a heavy casualty rate
• BAKHMUT: Russian forces have made notable confirmed tactical gains south of Toretsk in recent days, with Russian assaults typically including several assaults a day using around ten soldiers
• SABOTAGE: The busting of a sabotage network planning arson attacks in Ukraine and EU countries reaffirms that Russian operatives will attempt to use plausibly deniable ‘grey zone’ tactics for destabilisation operations in Europe over the coming months
• FORECAST: The visit of Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba to China to discuss negotiations with Russia underscores Kyiv’s eagerness to involve Beijing in the peace process
• OFFENSIVE: In an interview with the Guardian published on 24 July, Ukrainian Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stressed that Russia has succeeded in maintaining its numerical and material advantage over Ukraine since the start of the war. Syrskyi noted that Russia currently maintains 520,000 military personnel in Ukraine, with plans to increase this to 690,000 by the end of 2024. Similarly, Russian forces retain a two-to-one to three-to-one equipment advantage over Ukrainian troops. Moscow has also doubled the number of tanks and armoured personnel carriers and tripled the number of artillery systems since 2022. Syrskyi acknowledged that this has allowed Russian forces to make tactical gains across the frontline over recent months. However, he emphasised that such gains are localised and are not operational breakthroughs. Syrskyi also claims that Russia’s tactical successes come at a high human cost, with Russian casualties three times higher than Ukraine’s.
• OFFENSIVE: The highly attritional nature of Russian offensive operations over recent months will likely force Russia to decrease the tempo of its attacks across the frontline. On 25 July, Oleksandr Pivnenko, the commander of Ukraine’s National Guard, assessed that the Russian command will be forced to scale down its offensive operations within a month and a half, switching to a defensive posture to replenish troops and material. Pivnenko stressed the importance of Ukraine continuing military recruitment, training, and defence equipment procurement to increase the number of combat-ready units to retake the offensive initiative. We assess that a major Ukrainian counter-offensive operation in the coming months remains unlikely, with Ukrainian forces more likely to launch small-scale counterattacks to exploit Russian weaknesses and contain offensives. At the same time, Pivnenko’s statements align with our assessment that the high attrition rate of Russian offensives and significant material losses will increasingly challenge Moscow’s ability to sustain the current offensive tempo.
• BAKHMUT: Over the past few days, Russian forces have made important confirmed tactical gains south of Toretsk. Geolocated footage from 22 July indicates Russian forces have advanced in south-western Niu York (south of Toretsk) up to Yesenina Street along Dekabrystiv and Lva Tolstoho streets. A Russian commander operating in the sector reported that Russian offensives are typically characterised by assaults conducted by about ten soldiers and that five to seven such assaults occur per day.
• BAKHMUT: The north of the Bakhmut line near Siversk (Donetsk oblast) remains a highly contended zone, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces claiming gains. On 22 July geolocated footage indicated Russian forces have advanced north-east of Rozdolivka, south of Siversk. Subsequently, on 24 July, the Ukrainian General Staff also reported some tactical Ukrainian gains south of Siversk, near Vyimka and Pereizne. Ukrainian operations in the area are likely in part aided by the local predominance in the use of drones over artillery by both sides, with Ukrainian forces currently retaining an advantage in drone warfare in the sector.
• DONETSK: The operational situation remains increasingly difficult for Ukrainian forces north-west of Avdiivka towards Pokrovsk, where Russian forces have made confirmed gains. On 23 July, a Ukrainian military observer confirmed that the operational situation for Ukrainian forces is critical in the direction of Pokrovsk. He explained that Russian offensive operations target degraded Ukrainian units instead of focusing on weak defensive positions. According to the Ukrainian source, Russian operations along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk line are characterised by small infantry-led assaults. Geolocated footage posted on 23 and 24 July shows Russian advances in south-western, central and western Novoselivka Persha, located north-west of Avdiivka. Russian milbloggers reported that Russia is conducting intense air strikes against Ukrainian positions near rear areas in Novoselivka Persha. Although Ukrainian forces still possibly retain positions within the settlement, growing operational pressure will likely result in Russia taking control of the settlement in the coming weeks.
• KHARKIV: Russian forces have made confirmed gains north and north-east of Kharkiv. Geolocated footage from 22 July indicates marginal Russian advances within Vovchansk (north-east of Kharkiv city). Additional footage from 23 July shows that Russian forces have progressed in western Hlyboke, north of Kharkiv city, with subsequent claims by Russian sources that Ukrainian forces have been completely pushed out of the settlement. While this remains visually unconfirmed, we assess that Russia likely nearly controls the entire settlement.
• KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
• SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
• STRIKES: On 23 July, Russia launched a Kh-69 missile and eight Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted seven drones and the Kh-69 missile.
• STRIKES: Meanwhile, overnight on 22-23 July, Ukraine orchestrated a drone strike targeting a ferry crossing in Kavkaz, in Russia’s southern Krasnodar Krai. The ferry crossing is located about nine miles (15km) from Kerch (Crimea) and is used by Russian forces to alleviate pressure on the ground line of communication (GLOC) between Krasnodar Krai and Crimea across the Kerch Bridge. As such, the attack clearly underscores Kyiv’s continued efforts to disrupt military supply routes from Russia to occupied Crimea.
• STRIKES: Overnight on 23-24 July, Russian forces struck Kharkiv oblast with an Iskandr-M ballistic missile and an unidentified missile. Local authorities reported that projectiles hit residential buildings in the centre of Kharkiv (Kharkiv oblast) and damaged the office of a Swiss mine-clearing NGO, underscoring the persistent risk of misfire posed to foreign entities operating in Ukraine. Russian forces also launched 23 Shahed-136/131 drones, 17 of which were intercepted by Ukraine, primarily over Odesa oblast. Ukrainian air defences also shot down eight reconnaissance drones.
• STRIKES: Early on 25 July, Ukrainian air defences intercepted 25 of the 38 Shahed-136/131 drones launched by Russia. Air defences were active in Cherkasy, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Sumy and Zhytomyr oblasts. The attack primarily targeted civilian infrastructure across the country.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• AID: The Dutch Ministry of Defence (MOD) announced earlier on 25 July that the Netherlands and Denmark are ready to ship 14 refurbished Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. The ministry said the tanks are ready to be delivered before the end of summer, though it did not give a specific shipment date. Meanwhile, Latvian Defence Minister Andris Sprūds announced on 22 July that Riga will send more than 500 drones to Kyiv. However, it is uncertain when they will arrive in Kyiv. Nevertheless, the provision of additional Leopard 2 tanks and drones will likely moderately enhance Ukraine’s ground and air capabilities in the coming weeks and months.
• CONCESSIONS: Almost a third of Ukrainians (32%) would be willing to cede some territory to achieve peace quickly and preserve Ukrainian independence, according to polling released on 23 July by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). Meanwhile, 55% argued that Ukraine should not give up any of its lands under any circumstances, even if this prolongs the war and threatens independence. This is in contrast to 82% of respondents with this view in May 2022. Respondents in western Ukraine were most likely to oppose territorial concessions (60%) compared to southern Ukraine (46%). In an interview with Italian media published on 21 July, Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko implied that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would possibly need to organise a referendum before agreeing to any territorial compromises with Russia. While territorial concessions will highly likely remain unpopular within Ukrainian society, the evolution of the polling data indicates a growing acceptance of the possibility of having to cede territory.
• SABOTAGE: Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported on 25 July that it had uncovered a Russian network planning arson attacks in Ukraine, as well as Poland and the Baltic States, underscoring Russian infiltration and recruitment capabilities for sabotage operations. According to the SBU, the perpetrators intended to target shopping centres, gas stations, pharmacies and markets at the behest of Russian intelligence services. Some 19 people from various Ukrainian regions, namely Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, were involved in the scheme. The agency said they were to be sent abroad using falsified documents. Our ongoing assessment is that Russian sabotage and destabilisation operations are primarily designed to undermine Western support for Kyiv. Arson attacks are among plausibly deniable ‘grey zone’ tactics that operatives working for Russia can employ to achieve this goal. We assess that the Baltic states and Poland will remain particularly vulnerable to such plots, as well as other European nations providing significant aid to Ukraine. For further analysis, see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 16 May 2024.

FORECAST

CHINA: On 24 July, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba held talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Guangzhou (Guangdong province, China). It marked Kuleba’s first official visit to China since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. According to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, talks focused on Russian aggression in Ukraine and China’s possible role in achieving peace. Kuleba stated that Kyiv is ready to engage Moscow in negotiations ‘at a certain stage’, but noted that there is currently no indication that Russia is ready to enter talks in good faith. Meanwhile, Wang claimed that both Kyiv and Moscow have sent signals of willingness to negotiate recently, though to ‘varying degrees’. Nevertheless, the Chinese foreign minister acknowledged that the conditions and timing for peace talks are not yet ‘ripe’.

Our assessment remains that we have not seen any genuine indications from Russia that it is willing to negotiate and consider Ukrainian conditions for peace. That Moscow maintains maximalist ambitions in Ukraine is highly likely (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 17 June 2024). Russia is currently highly unlikely to end the war on conditions that significantly deviate from its key objectives and will likely resist any demand to relinquish control over Ukrainian territory that it has seized. The fact that Wang believes both countries have shown some willingness to negotiate likely indicates that China considers Russia’s terms for ‘peace’ to be closer aligned to Beijing’s vision for a settlement in Ukraine.

Later on 24 July, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reaffirmed that China will not supply weapons to Russia, which he said his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping had previously vowed. Zelensky stated that there is a clear signal that Beijing support’s Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. China remains unlikely to openly dispatch lethal aid to Russia for use in Ukraine in the near term due to the threat of Western sanctions. That said, we assess that China is unlikely to play a significant role in the peace process between Russia and Ukraine in the foreseeable future, given Beijing’s close ties to Moscow.

July 24.

Ukraine: New ICS malware sustains elevated security, disruption risks to critical infrastructure. On 23 July, the cyber security company Dragos reported that Russia-linked threat actors targeted a Ukrainian heating company in January with new industrial control system (ICS) malware, ‘FrostyGoop’. The threat actors first accessed the targeted system in April 2023 by exploiting a vulnerability in a Mikrotik router. Subsequently, FrostyGoop used ICS communication protocols to connect to the facility’s ENCO industrial controllers. This enabled the threat actors to halt heating provision to 600 buildings for two days, highlighting the significant impact of ICS attacks. Notably, the lack of network segmentation facilitated the actors’ access to the facility’s controllers, underscoring the importance of segmenting ICS environments. Additionally, the ubiquity of the exploited communication protocols across ICS environments heightens security risks to critical national infrastructure. Russian state-sponsored groups have supplemented kinetic operations with cyber campaigns since the onset of the Ukraine war, sustaining elevated disruption risks to Ukrainian critical national infrastructure.

Jul 23.

*Hungary-Slovakia: Oil dispute with Ukraine points to elevated regional tensions, energy security risks. On 22 July, Hungary’s Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó confirmed that Hungary and Slovakia have asked the EU to mediate a consultation procedure with Ukraine. The nations made the request in response to Ukraine imposing sanctions on the Russian oil company Lukoil, thereby blocking the transit of Lukoil-supplied oil through the Druzhba pipeline which traverses Ukraine and (ordinarily) supplies the two countries. The halt in deliveries will likely drive fuel prices in the two countries. If the ban is not lifted in the near term it will likely elevate energy security risks and raise socio-economic health risks. Hungary, for instance, relies on Lukoil for approximately 50% of its oil imports. We assess that the dispute will likely further elevate tensions between Ukraine and the Hungarian and Slovakian governments, both of which maintain a ‘Russia-friendly’ foreign policy. If the dispute protracts, there is a realistic possibility that the two countries will retaliate by increasing restrictions on Ukrainian imports.

Jul 22.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• DONETSK: Fighting remains intense in Donetsk oblast, where Russian forces have made confirmed advances in the direction of Pokrovsk, an important logistical hub
• KHERSON: Ukrainian forces likely retain a presence on the Russian-controlled left bank of the Dnieper river, despite their reported withdrawal from Krynky
• ESPIONAGE: US reporter sentenced to 16 years in high-security Russian penal colony, highlighting elevated risk of arbitrary detention for Western journalists
• FORECAST:  US President Joe Biden withdraws from 2024 presidential race and expresses support for Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic party’s nominee
• BAKHMUT: On 20 July, the UK’s Defence Intelligence (DI) assessed that Russian forces near Chasiv Yar forces are likely undertaking a tactical pause amid a decrease in infantry assaults in the area. The UK DI further assessed that probing attacks and reconnaissance operations are likely ongoing during this pause. There have been no confirmed advances by Russian forces operating in the area in recent days, which likely supports the UK DI’s assessment. However, on 21 July, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces had thwarted Russian attacks near Chasiv Yar. Russian forces are highly likely to continue efforts to pressure Chasiv Yar’s northern flank in the coming days.
• BAKHMUT: Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces made marginal advances in ongoing offensive operations further south along the Toretsk axis. The footage released on 19 July indicates that Russian forces advanced in eastern Druzhba and within Pivnichne (both east of Toretsk). The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed on 19 July that Russian forces captured the small settlement of Yurivka, though we cannot confirm this.
• DONETSK: Fighting has remained intense over the past few days in the Donetsk sector, particularly in the direction of Pokrovsk, where Russian forces have made confirmed gains. On 21 July, the Ukrainian General Staff reported around 22 attacks on Pokrovsk, located northwest of Avdiivka within a 24-hour period. Geolocated footage published on 19 July indicates that Russian forces recently captured Prohres, 19 miles (30 km) southeast of Pokrovsk. Meanwhile, geolocated footage from 20 July shows Russian advances south of Heorhiivka and within central Krasnohorivka, both settlements located west of Donetsk city.
• KHARKIV: The Kharkiv frontline has remained stable in recent days with limited Russian advances in ongoing offensive operations. Geolocated footage posted on 18 July indicates that Russian forces have advanced within the settlement of Starytsia (northeast of Kharkiv city), though there have been no other confirmed advances. Nonetheless, Russia likely remains committed to establish the so-called ‘buffer zone’ along the border and will likely deploy further resources to support this objective. In this regard, the Ukrainian Kharkiv Operational-Tactical Group of Forces stated on 21 July that the Russian command had deployed additional assault groups near Hlyboke and that assault groups were being regrouped for renewed attacks on Vovchansk.
• KHERSON: Ukrainian forces highly likely retain a presence on the Russian-controlled left bank of the Dnieper River, despite their reported withdrawal from the settlement of Krynky. On 21 July, for instance, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces had repelled 11 Russian attacks on the left bank. Ukrainian Secretary of the parliamentary Committee on National Security, Defence and Intelligence, Roman Konstenko, stated on 21 July that Ukrainian forces had withdrawn from the settlement, which is ‘practically destroyed’ but that Ukrainian troops were still active on the left bank.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Geolocated footage from 20 July shows that Russian forces are operating within Pishchane, likely indicating that the settlement is under Russian control. Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed on 21 July that Russian forces captured Andriivka (Luhansk Oblast), located west of Svatove. While this remains visually unconfirmed, it likely underscores growing pressure around Svatove and Kreminna after weeks of limited advances in the sector.
• SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
• STRIKES: Early on 20 July, Russia launched three Iskandr-M ballistic missiles, one Iskandr-K cruise missile and 16 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted 12 drones and one unidentified drone. The attack targeted energy infrastructure in Chernihiv, Poltava and Sumy oblasts. Regional authorities reported that several thousands of residents in Poltava oblast were left without energy after the attack.
• STRIKES: Overnight on 20-21 July, Russian forces launched three Iskandr-M ballistic missiles, two Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles and 39 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted 35 drones and all Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles over Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, and Sumy oblasts. The attack primarily targeted Ukrainian critical infrastructure. Sumy oblast authorities reported that the attack hit infrastructure facilities in the city of Shostka. Falling drone debris reportedly damaged residential buildings on the outskirts of the capital, Kyiv. Later, on 21 July, Ukrainian air defences intercepted 16 drones of various types in southern and eastern Ukraine.
• STRIKES: Meanwhile, on 20 July, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that 26 Ukrainian drones targeted southern Rostov oblast. A pro-Ukrainian Telegram channel reported that explosions were heard at the Millerovo military airfield. Satellite images posted after the attack show damage to the warehouse and the technical-operational unit hangar. The images do not indicate any damage to aircraft located in the airfield. The attack underscores Kyiv’s continued efforts to degrade Russian aviation capabilities.
• STRIKES: The Russian MoD reported that its air defences intercepted 75 Ukrainian drones over Russia on 22 July. According to the MoD, 47 drones were destroyed over Rostov Oblast, eight over Krasnodar Krai and three over Belgorod, Smolensk and Voronezh oblasts. The remaining 17 drones were reportedly destroyed over the Black and Azov Seas. Krasnodar Krai authorities reported that falling drone debris damaged oil infrastructure at the Tuapse oil refinery. The attack caused a fire at the facility, which is owned by Rosneft; Russian media outlets confirmed damage to some equipment of the refinery. The attack underscores Ukraine’s ability to launch large-scale attacks and persistent efforts to target oil refineries in Russia’s western region, likely to disrupt oil supplies to the frontline.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• AID: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on 21 July that his country’s troops still lack ammunition and drones. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský disclosed earlier on 22 July that another 100,000 rounds of ammunition will be sent to Ukraine in July and August under a Prague-led initiative. The minister stated that deliveries will accelerate from September. Lipavský said efforts are underway to source funding to purchase new ammunition so that the scheme can continue in 2025. The delivery of additional ammunition will likely modestly ease firepower shortages, though a lack of artillery shells will highly likely remain an persistent issue for Ukrainian troops in the coming months.
• ESPIONAGE: On 19 July, a Russian court sentenced Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reporter Evan Gershkovich to 16 years in a high-security penal colony for espionage. It marks the first conviction of a US journalist in Russia for espionage since the end of the Cold War over 30 years ago. The Kremlin declined to disclose whether a prisoner exchange was possible on 19 July, though Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted at the possibility of freeing Gershkovich for the release of a Russian prisoner in February.
• ESPIONAGE: The accelerated trial against the reporter could realistically indicate that an exchange in the coming weeks and months is possible. A verdict typically needs to be in place for a swap to happen. We assess that Gershkovich is almost certainly a high-value bargaining tool for Moscow to leverage in the hope of releasing its own prisoners abroad. Ultimately, arbitrary arrest risks for Western journalists in Russia will highly likely remain elevated during the course of the war in Ukraine, adding to tensions between Russia and the West.
• ASSASSINATIONS: An unknown assailant on 19 July shot and killed a divisive former Ukrainian lawmaker, Iryna Farion, in the city of Lviv (Lviv oblast). Farion strongly advocated for the use of Ukrainian language in Ukraine and had claimed in 2023 that ‘true patriots’ should not speak Russian, including on the front lines, sparking significant societal backlash. The ultranationalist party of which she was a lawmaker, Svoboda (Freedom), claimed that Moscow ‘undoubtedly’ committed the murder.
• ASSASSINATIONS: Farion’s political work was almost certainly a motivating factor in her killing. However, it is less certain as to whether Russian operatives conducted the assassination, though this is a credible possibility. Current and former Ukrainian politicians will highly likely remain at an elevated risk of assassination plots over the course of the war, including those facilitated by Russia or pro-Russian individuals in Ukraine.

FORECAST

US: President Joe Biden announced on 21 July that he would withdraw from the 2024 US presidential race following increasing concerns over his cognitive health (see Sibylline Alert – 21 July 2024). Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic party’s nominee.

The Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said on 21 July that Russia’s priority is achieving its war goals in Ukraine and that a lot can change ahead of the US presidential election in November. Nevertheless, Peskov stated that Moscow needs to be patient and carefully monitor what happens in the period leading up to the vote. Russia will almost certainly watch the election closely and likely attempt to undermine international support for Ukraine during this period also. The comments reaffirm our assessment that Russia highly likely perceives that time is on its side and that it does not have a genuine desire to cease fighting and enter negotiations in the foreseeable future.

A possible Harris presidency would likely see a continuation of US support for Ukraine as under Biden’s administration. While delivering a speech at the Munich Security Conference in February, Harris said she will make it clear that she and Biden stand with Ukraine. Harris emphasised the importance of providing critical weapons and resources to Kyiv and reaffirmed that the US’ commitment to NATO remains ‘ironclad’. We assess that a possible Harris administration would highly likely maintain the current administration’s support for Kyiv and continued involvement in the military alliance.

Zelensky and former US president Donald Trump, who is seeking re-election this year, called on 19 July; the two discussed ending the war in Ukraine. Trump claimed that he would bring peace and end the war if he wins the presidential race without specifying any concrete plans as to how to do so. According to Trump, both Russia and Ukraine will be able to negotiate a peace deal that paves a path forward to prosperity. However, Russia highly likely maintains maximalist objectives in Ukraine and is therefore unlikely interested in considering Kyiv’s envisioned terms for peace.

Nevertheless, Zelensky appeared to remain sceptical of the former US president’s ability to end the war quickly and at what cost in an interview on 18 July with the BBC. Zelensky stated that a simple way to achieve peace in this timeframe would be to force Kyiv to make territorial concessions and lift sanctions against Moscow. However, he insisted that ‘no one in the world’ could force Ukraine to do this. As such, the call between Trump and Zelensky highly likely indicates the latter’s efforts to improve relations and encourage the former to continue aiding Ukraine if Trump wins the election. Ultimately, our assessment remains that the future of sustainable, long-term US assistance to Ukraine will likely be more vulnerable under a second Trump administration. (Source: Sibylline)

 

25 Jul 24. Russia pulls last ship from Sea of Azov. Russia has pulled all of its ships out of the Sea of Azov, a body of water connected to the Black Sea, Ukraine’s navy has claimed.

“There are no longer any Russian naval vessels in the Sea of Azov,” declared Dmytro Pletenchuk, a Ukrainian navy spokesman.

Kyiv’s near-relentless attacks on Russian targets in the Black Sea and annexed Crimea have forced Moscow’s navy to retreat and rebase elsewhere in a major victory for a country with no real navy of its own.

Ukraine has used uncrewed naval boats packed with explosives to target Russian vessels, while pounding the Black Sea fleet’s facilities and other military targets with Storm Shadow and Atacms missiles.

On Wednesday, Ukraine said it had destroyed Russia’s last railway ferry being used to transport military equipment to its forces on Crimea, while earlier this month it said Russia’s last naval patrol ship had left the peninsula following the rest of its combat-ready warships.

(Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

26 Jul 24. Ukraine’s Acoustic Drone Detection Network Eyed by US as Low-Cost Air Defense Option.

The U.S. should integrate a low-cost acoustic network to detect aerial threats developed by Ukraine into its own air defense systems, the commanding general of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command said Wednesday morning.

Consisting of thousands of acoustic sensors across Ukraine, this system helps detect and track incoming Russian kamikaze drones, alert traditional air defenses in advance, and also dispatch ad hoc drone hunting teams to shoot them down.

“Their use of acoustic sensors has proliferated across the country to the point now where they’re almost positively identifying drones in the distance because of this acoustic and the fireteams attached to that acoustic, low-cost capability that they’ve developed and proliferated,”

Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Gainey said during a discussion at the Hudson Institute. As a result, Ukraine has a “low-cost defeat” system. The U.S., he added, should

“find a way” of integrating “that type of low-cost capability into our system. We should be able to find ways to work together and augment some of our capability with some of that lower-cost capability.”One of the key lessons from Ukraine that could be applied to the U.S. is “the ability to be able to disperse our capability [across a full 360 degrees] and be able to respond to several different threats simultaneously,” Gainey said.

Gainey didn’t offer details of how such an integration might work. However, his comments about U.S. interest in Ukraine’s acoustic detection network echoed sentiments expressed last week by the general who leads U.S. Air Forces in Europe (USAFE), Air Forces Africa (AFAFRICA), and NATO’s Allied Air Command.

The network was developed by two Ukrainian engineers in a garage who attached cell phones and microphones to six-foot poles, Gen. James Hecker told reporters at the Royal International Air Tattoo on Saturday. It is a modern version of the various types of systems used by the U.S. and other nations in WWII designed to detect incoming aircraft based on their acoustic signatures.

Hecker was expanding on the comments he first made about the system in February at the Air & Space Forces Association Warfare Symposium which you can read more about here.

The key to Ukraine’s network is that it picks up the loud sound given off by the drones. Though relatively small, the piston engines of kamikaze drones like the Shahed-136 produce a significant and often terrifying amount of noise, as you hear in the video below.

Widespread deployment of these sensors has helped Ukraine defend against the drones, Hecker said on Saturday.

“They put about 9,500 of these within their nation and now they get very accurate information that is synthesized in a central computer and sent out to mobile fire teams,” Hecker said. “And on an iPad, they get a route of flight of these one-way UAVs coming in, and they have a triple-A [anti-aircraft artillery] gun and a person with six hours of training can shoot these down.”

Most of Ukraine’s counter-drone teams rely heavily on improvised weapon systems typically consisting of various types of machine guns and automatic cannons mounted on different types of light vehicles. Their means of spotting and tracking drones themselves, especially at night, are typically limited to very localized capabilities like night vision and thermal optics, laser pointers, and searchlights.

Patching these units together with early warning of drone locations is a force multiplier that has proven so successful the U.S. and allies have independently tested it as they look to develop ways of providing greater situational awareness over large swathes of airspace without breaking the bank. Countering the waves of drone threats they could face from adversaries like Russia and China, and also Iran and North Korea, requires non-traditional thinking, and this system certainly fits the bill.

About three months ago, Ukraine’s network detected about 84 incoming drones and enabled its forces to down all but four, Hecker said. After that success, Ukraine’s acoustic sensing equipment was taken to Ramstein Air Base in Germany for evaluation.

“I got briefed on this from the physicists who actually developed it,” Hecker explained. ”A couple months later, we set up sensors around Ramstein and we proved that it works. Romania just had another demo, where they put the sensors around one of their in one of their ranges and they proved that it worked as well.”

Costing roughly $400 to $500 per sensor, the network is “a cheap solution,” Hecker said, to the problem of detecting and defeating incoming drones across a nation the size of Texas. “It’s much cheaper than a Patriot.”

As a result, “other countries are looking at acoustic sensors and I think that technology will get better and better.”

The network that Ukraine has developed costs less than $5 million based on the per-sensor estimate provided by Hecker. He wants NATO nations to produce similar kinds of innovation to put them on “the right side of the cost curve” and create dilemmas that put Russia “on the wrong side of the cost curve.”

He used the example of the massive Iranian barrage on Israel in April when ballistic missiles, one-way UAVs, and cruise missiles headed toward the country.

“The U.S., some other countries as well as Israel were able to knock down almost all of them,” Hecker noted. However, destroying a “$30,000 drone” with a “million dollar missile” was “not the right side of the cost curve.”

Hecker challenged industry and NATO air chiefs “to come up with cheaper, more creative solutions.”

Likewise, he continued, “We need to develop equipment in NATO that is there to put pressure on the wrong side of the cost curve should there be an Article 5 situation.”

Article 5 stipulates that if a NATO ally is attacked, all members of the alliance will consider the act as a collective attack on the alliance. So far, it has only been invoked once, shortly after the U.S. was attacked on 9/11.

“So we’re working both of those very hard,” Hecker said. “Every meeting, when I talk to industry, I bring up both of these. How do we get on the right side of the cost curve on [integrated air defense] IAD and then how can we make Russia be on the wrong side.”

There are no specific plans as of yet by the U.S. or its allies to develop or deploy acoustic detection networks. However, the growing interest in their success in Ukraine indicates that they may do so in the not-too-distant future. And there is really no reason why they wouldn’t. Such an acoustic network could be deployed relatively cheaply and linked together across Europe, providing a whole new layer of aerial surveillance.

The info such a system provides could be integrated and fuzed with traditional air defense sensor data, improving an integrated air defense system’s (IADS) overall quality significantly. Currently, radar, electro-optical/infrared, and passive radio frequency detection systems provide tracking data for an IADS, with radar being the primary means of doing so. A cheap, highly distributed network of acoustic sensors would add an entirely new spectrum layer to this integrated air defense equation, increasing the quality of the system’s data output overall.

Acoustic sensors are also impervious to electronic attack and only physical decoys could influence such a system, aside from the cyber realm, providing a layer that can cross-check what radio frequency-dependent sensors are seeing or not. Such a network would also be highly resilient as it would be widely distributed and very hard to pinpoint its nodes as it is passive in nature.

This also means that if some of its sensors are destroyed, it would just degrade its capabilities in certain areas, not totally neuter them. Any nodes that are lost for whatever reason could also be cheaply and quickly replaced.

All of this is also highly relevant to the defense of the U.S. homeland. Low-flying drones and cruise missiles are a major concern and there is already a push both on the campaign trail and in the top echelons of the U.S. government to drastically upgrade America’s domestic air defense capabilities. Drones and cruise missiles are hard to spot and reliably track, especially without airborne sensor systems.

An acoustic network, especially one clustered towards the country’s perimeter, could be a huge help in identifying and mitigating these threats without spending massive sums of money.

With all this in mind, Ukraine’s well-known success with its acoustic aerial threat tracking system will have allies and adversaries alike perusing very similar capabilities, especially as the threat of long-range suicide drones continues to explode in scope and magnitude.

(Source: UAS VISION/The War Zone)

 

25 Jul 24. Netherlands, Denmark ready to send 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. The Netherlands and Denmark are ready to deliver 14 refurbished Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, the Dutch defence ministry said on Thursday.

Both countries in April last year said they would buy the tanks from a third party and get them ready for battle in Ukraine.

The tanks have been completely revised by German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, and after months of testing are now ready to be delivered before the end of the summer, the Dutch ministry said. It did not give a shipment date.

“The Leopard 2A4 tanks can help Ukraine gain the upper hand on the battlefield,” it said in a statement.

“It has large firepower, offers good protection to its crew and is fast.”  (Source: Reuters)

 

23 Jul 24. Austin Reaffirms U.S. Support for Ukraine During Call With Counterpart. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III today reaffirmed the United States’ unwavering support for Ukraine as it relates to that country’s ongoing conflict with Russia during a phone call with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, the Pentagon announced.

During the call, the two leaders also discussed steps allies are taking to support Ukraine, as well as the outcomes of the NATO summit that took place earlier this month in Washington, Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters.

At that July 9-11 summit that recognized NATO’s 75 years of strength, Austin made clear that — while the U.S. has no designs on entering the war in Ukraine — it will continue to support the country.

“We will stand by Ukraine as it fights for its sovereignty and security,” Austin said during remarks July 10.

Austin also commented that day on how much NATO has grown following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

“In the wake of Putin’s imperial invasion of Ukraine, we’ve bolstered NATO’s forward defense posture with more troops at high readiness, larger exercises, sharper vigilance and multinational battle groups in eight countries,” he said. “NATO is now larger than ever.”

Prior to today’s call, Austin and Umerov met in person earlier this month at the Pentagon to preview a new military assistance package for Ukraine valued at just north of $2.3 bn.

“Make no mistake, Ukraine is not alone,” Austin said during that meeting. “The United States will never waver, and our support alongside some 50 allies and partners will continue to provide the critical capabilities that Ukraine needs to push back Russian aggression today and to deter Russian aggression tomorrow.”

During today’s call, Umerov also briefed Austin on the current situation in Ukraine.

“Minister Umerov provided Secretary Austin an update of dynamics on the ground in Ukraine as Ukraine’s forces bravely continue to fight Russian aggression,” Ryder told reporters. (Source: U.S. DoD)

 

19 Jul 24. UK officials will sit on joint panel for new £2bn Ukraine defence loan.

Air defence systems were the first military capability that could be procured via the new revenue stream, according to the Ukrainian defence minister. UK and Ukrainian officials will sit on a joint panel to oversee the spending of a £2bn ($2.6bn) loan for air defence systems and other equipment, which was signed following the landmark address of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the new UK Government cabinet.

Whilst at its core a humanitarian crisis, the Russian invasion of Ukraine risks adding materially to existing global economic and supply challenges. We are likely heading into a period in which geopolitics will become a regular part of boardroom…

In a 19 July statement, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence (MoD) said that the agreement would provide “financial support” for military equipment purchases “in accordance with Nato standards”.

The bilateral deal was signed by the Ukrainian Minister of Defence, Rustem Umerov, and the UK Secretary of State of Defence, John Healey. The Ukraine defence loan will run for 15 years, with the possibility of an extension, and has been provided at a “favourable” interest rate, the Ukrainian MoD stated.

“According to the framework agreement, the loan will be utilised for implementing large-scale initiatives aimed at enhancing Ukraine’s defence capabilities. This will reduce the burden on the state budget and allow in the short term to obtain the necessary weapons for the defence of our state, first of all, in the field of air defence,” said Umerov.

Of particular note was the formation of a “joint panel”, comprising officials of both governments, that would “oversee the targetted use of the loan”, the statement continued.

The focus on air defence is also key, with Zelenskyy regularly calling for additional air defence capabilities, such as the Patriot system, to protect critical national infrastructure.

Zelenskyy wants UK to “show its leadership”

Coinciding with the signing of the defence loan agreement, Zelenskyy addressed the UK Government cabinet meeting, where he called on the UK to “show its leadership” in convincing “other partners” to remove operational limitations on long-range strike weapons already provided.

The UK, France, and the US have all sent long-range strike munitions to Ukraine with the Storm Shadow/SCALP and ATACMS missiles respectively.

However, the US has stated publicly that at present it does not allow Ukraine to strike at military targets inside Russian territory, with Washington concerned over escalation risks.

Indeed, it was only after France and UK first approved the provision of Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles that Washington relented to permit ATACMS to be sent to Ukraine.

Speaking on 12 July, a US DoD spokesperson said that the Pentagon was “always mindful of escalation”, which appears to be the primary reason for the current ban on long-rang strikes by Ukraine inside Russia using ATACMS.

Bizarrely, in a press briefing on 18 July, a US Department of Defense spokesperson stated that Ukrainian forces continued to “dig in and push the Russians back” in the battlefield of eastern Ukraine, responding to media queries on US commitment to Kyiv.

It is an accepted reality that Russia has in fact been forcing Ukraine back on a number of fronts in its 2024 summer offensive, made partly possible through the intransigence of US lawmakers in delaying a 2023 multi-bn-dollar military assistance package due to political infighting, starving Ukraine of critical equipment and ammunition. (Source: army-technology.com)

 

19 Jul 24. UK Government and defence industry stepping up support for Ukraine. Defence Secretary John Healey met UK defence industry leaders to discuss support for Ukraine. The Defence and Business Secretaries met with President Zelenskyy and industry leaders in London on Thursday evening (18 July) to discuss deeper cooperation and the need to boost industrial production for Ukraine.

Since Putin launched his illegal invasion of Ukraine, the defence industry has provided vital equipment and munitions to Ukraine.

The meeting at Lancaster House with President Zelenskyy and senior representatives from UK Export Finance, BAE Systems, Thales UK, MBDA, KBR and Babcock came as two of the UK’s largest defence companies, BAE Systems and Babcock International Group confirmed updated contracts in support of Ukraine.

The developments came during this week’s European Political Community summit, hosted by the Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which has seen Ukraine’s President, visit to hold bilateral meetings, alongside his Defence Minister, Rustem Umerov.

Defence Secretary, John Healey, said: “The UK is united for Ukraine. The Ukrainians are fighting with huge courage, the military and civilians alike. Our new government has already pledged to step up support, confirming £3bn a year to help Ukraine and a new package of ammunition, anti-armour missiles and artillery guns. Meeting with industry leaders, I emphasised the Government will continue to work in partnership with industry and the need to boost industrial production of vital military kit for both Ukraine and our own Armed Forces.”

From industrial sites at home, to facilities in Ukraine, the UK defence industry has been providing critical equipment to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Working with local partners, BAE Systems is providing maintenance and repair for weapons supplied by the UK from a facility in Ukraine.

Babcock International also announced a six-month extension to its contract with the MOD to continue to provide the maintenance, repair and asset management of vehicles.

Whilst this week, the MOD agreed to regenerate the UK’s ability to produce forgings for gun barrels, working in partnership with Sheffield Forgemasters, supporting the repair and overhaul of Ukrainian vehicles; this is the first step towards UK sovereign barrel production which has been developing for 20 years.

UK industry support of this kind will enable Ukraine’s armed forces to get maintain vital equipment, such as L119 Light Guns and the AS90 self-propelled gun, keeping it in the fight and repairing battle damaged equipment as quickly as possible.

Kevin Craven, CEO of the Defence trade organisation ADS, said:

The UK defence industry’s support to Ukraine continues and is unwavering. It is an honour for ADS and our members to work in such close collaboration with our partners.

Our industries have clear opportunities for collaboration, done so with the knowledge that we are protecting our collective security.

These industry announcements follow on from the success of the outward ADS-led trade mission earlier this month. The robust pipeline of trade missions have enabled industry, from Primes to SMEs, to contribute to Ukraine’s defence and also to learn from our allies in their turn.

It is clear that the war in Ukraine has become one of industrial production. Government and industry are united in our shared commitment to Ukraine and by working together, we are setting the building blocks for our 100-year partnership.

Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said:

We cannot have economic growth at home, without security and stability abroad.

The UK has been a steadfast friend and ally to Ukraine and they deserve our continued unwavering support. That’s why we will use our strong partnership with industry to deliver the military support essential for the country’s defence. These announcements reaffirm the UK’s continued support for Ukraine. From recommitting to spending £3 bn a year of military support to the Government’s recent commitment to fast-track deliveries, the UK will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

 

22 Jul 24. Ukraine has struck a deal with international bondholders to restructure about $20bn of debt, boosting Kyiv’s drive to use private capital to finance its war effort against Russia. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government said on Monday that it won support from investors to reduce the face value of the debt by more than a third, paving the way for a formal restructuring in the coming weeks. The agreement will replace a two-year moratorium on bond payments that was granted after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 but was due to expire next month. Ukraine sought debt relief as part of its conditions for continuing bailout loans from the IMF, which said it had endorsed Monday’s deal alongside backing from the US, UK and other allies that are financing Kyiv’s war effort. Ukraine finalised terms last week during talks with a committee of bondholders, as well as other investors, which together own about a quarter of the debt. “As long-term investors in Ukraine, we are pleased to be able to provide significant debt relief to Ukraine, assist its efforts to regain its access to international capital markets, and support the future reconstruction of the country to the benefit of the Ukrainian people,” the committee said. The terms of the deal reflect deep uncertainty over the impact of a longer conflict on Ukraine’s economy and its ability to bear significant amounts of debt. In return for writing off 37 cents per dollar of the old debt, bondholders will firstly receive bonds worth 40 cents of their original claim. These will restore interest payments immediately, rising from 1.75 per cent over the next year to 4.5 per cent from 2026, with later increases. They will also receive a bond worth 23 cents, which will not pay interest for the next three years, but could increase to 35 cents if Ukraine’s nominal gross domestic product exceeds IMF targets by at least 3 per cent, and up to 7.5 per cent, in 2028. Overall, the restructuring will slash Ukraine’s previously scheduled bond payments by more than $11bn, or 90 per cent, in the next three years. By restarting payments to private investors after the moratorium, Ukraine hopes it can entice them to finance reconstruction, people familiar with the talks said.  Ukraine’s full return to bond markets is seen as unlikely as long as the war continues, but it could attract other sources of private capital such as loans guaranteed by development banks. Such funding could mitigate a feared reduction in support if Republican nominee Donald Trump wins the US presidential election, investors and analysts have said. Ukraine and the bondholder committee broke off initial discussions last month with positions far apart on the level of debt reduction that was needed, before formal talks restarted in the past two weeks. Recommended News in-depthRussian economy How the war in Ukraine is reviving Russia’s rustbelt Monday’s deal also has terms on how to approach a potential further restructuring in 2027, when Ukraine’s official creditors are expected to provide their own debt relief. Some investors had backed a further suspension of payments because of uncertainty over the war’s course and western support, arguing that a debt restructuring was best left until the conflict ended. (Source: FT.com)

 

22 Jul 24. Zelenskiy calls for long-range weapons after drone attack on Kyiv. Ukraine needs long-range weapons to protect its cities and troops on the frontline from Russian bombs and drones, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday after a massive overnight drone and missile attack.

Russia launched its fifth drone attack on Kyiv in two weeks overnight, with Ukraine’s air defence systems destroying all the air weapons before they reached the capital, Ukraine’s military said.

Ukraine’s air force said on Telegram that its air defence systems destroyed 35 of the 39 drones and two cruise missiles that Russia had launched overnight. The weapons, the air force said, targeted 10 of Ukraine’s regions.

It was not immediately clear how many drones were launched at Kyiv. There were no casualties and no significant damage reported, Serhiy Popko, head of the Ukrainian capital’s military administration, said on the Telegram.

“During last night alone, the Russian army used almost 40 ‘Shaheds’ against Ukraine. Importantly, most of them were shot down by our defenders of the sky,” Zelenskiy said on Telegram, referring to the drones.

He said it was necessary to destroy Russian bombers at Russian air bases to protect Ukraine from air raids.

“Our sufficient long-range capabilities should be a fair response to Russian terror. Everyone who supports us in this supports the defence against terror,” Zelenskiy said.

Zelenskiy renewed his call for Western allies to allow long-range strikes on Russia on Friday in London, saying Britain should try to convince its partners to remove the limits on their use.

NATO members have taken different approaches to how Ukraine can use weapons they donate. Some have made clear Kyiv can use them to strike targets inside Russia while the United States has taken a narrower approach, allowing its weapons to be used only just inside Russia’s border against targets supporting Russian military operations in Ukraine.

(Source: Google/Reuters)

——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-

Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.

A CNIM Group Company

——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————