NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

18 Jul. 24

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• BAKHMUT: Unconfirmed reports indicate that Russian forces have attempted to break through Ukrainian defences north of Chasiv Yar; whether they have managed to cross the canal remains unclear
• STRIKES: Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes continue to strain Russia’s air defence capabilities, forcing Moscow to prioritise the defence of high-priority strategic targets
• AID: Germany reportedly plans to halve its military assistance to Ukraine from around EUR 8bn (USD 8.74bn) this year to EUR 4bn (USD 4.37bn) in 2025
• FORECAST: The attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump has increased his chance of re-election; the nomination of Ukraine-critical JD Vance as his running mate is a bellwether for the potential Ukraine policy of a Trump administration
• BAKHMUT: Unconfirmed reports indicate that Russian forces attempted to break through Ukrainian defences in the village of Kalynivka, located to the north of Chasiv Yar (Donetsk oblast). While this development has not yet been confirmed, numerous sources have claimed that Russian forces are now in control of the settlement and have even crossed the Siverskyi-Donets-Donbas canal, though this is also unconfirmed. If Russian forces have consolidated their control over Kalynivka and broken through across the canal, this would represent an opportunity to apply more pressure on Chasiv Yar’s northern flank as Russian forces have not yet crossed the canal in either direction. This would provide Ukrainian forces with a distinct defensive advantage.
• BAKHMUT: Further south along the Toretsk axis, Ukrainian forces have staged several small-scale counter-attacks and have successfully retaken numerous positions east and south of Toretsk (Donetsk oblast). Geolocated footage from 14 and 16 July indicates that Ukrainian forces have retaken positions to the south-west and south-east of Niu York (also Donetsk oblast), even while Russian pressure remains high in this area.
• DONETSK: Over the past few days, Russian troops have continued to pressure Ukrainian forces towards Pokrovsk. On 17 July, a prominent Russian milblogger reported that Russian forces were progressing towards the Vovcha river, south-west of Porkrovsk. While Russian progress remains unconfirmed, such claims likely underscore Moscow’s continued efforts to reach Pokrovsk. Russian forces frequently subject the settlement to frequent shelling.
• DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 17 July indicates that, earlier in July, Russian forces made notable progress towards an important ground line of communication (GLOC) located near Vuhledar, south-west of Donetsk. The footage shows that Russian troops are operating near the T0524 Marinka-Vuhledar route; this has been one of Russia’s goals in the sector since 2022. Reaching this route would allow Russian forces to disrupt Ukranian GLOCS in the Vuhledar area. Meanwhile, geolocated footage from 14 July confirms marginal Russian advances within western Krasnohorivka, west of Donetsk City.
• KHARKIV: Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on 17 July that the Russian operation to create a ‘security zone’ in Kharkiv oblast will continue until the operation is successful; the main objective is to establish a so-called ‘buffer zone’ along the border. This likely indicates that despite extremely high Russian casualties, the Russian high command will continue offensive operations along this axis for the foreseeable future, even as the momentum of the summer offensive continues to decline. In this regard, a colonel of Ukraine’s Kharkiv Group of Forces, Yuriy Povkh, stated on 15 July that Russian forces are preparing new assault groups for renewed attacks in the Kharkiv direction.
• KHERSON: Earlier on 18 July, Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces withdrew from their positions on the left bank of the Dnieper River in Krynyk; Ukrainian officials have refuted this. Dmytro Lykhoviy, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Tavria Grouping of Forces, reported on 18 July that Ukrainian forces continue fighting on the left bank, claiming that the situation around Krynyk is ‘a little less critical’ than some commentators have suggested. Lykhoviy did acknowledge that the village itself had been destroyed, making its defence extremely difficult. However, he claims Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the Russian-controlled bank of the river.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: The Oskil-Kreminna frontline has remained stable in recent days with limited Russian advances reported in the sector. Geolocated footage from 17 July shows marginal Russian advances north-west of Kyslivka, located south-east of Kupiansk (Kharkiv Oblast). Additional footage from 16 July shows limited Russian progress made north-west of Dzhereine, west of Svatove.
• SOUTHERN: On 18 July, the Ukrainian military formally confirmed that its forces have withdrawn from the village of Urozhaine, located around six miles (10km) south of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast) on the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia oblast border. The confirmation comes six days after the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed its forces had taken the village on 12 July and claimed that Russian forces are making very slow progress along the Mokri Yaly River valley.
• STRIKES: On 16 July, Russia attacked Ukraine with four Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukraine intercepted two drones, while the remaining two entered Belarus’s airspace. Ukrainian air defences also intercepted eight reconnaissance drones. Falling drone debris reportedly hit buildings in the capital, Kyiv.
• STRIKES: Early on 17 July, Ukrainian forces intercepted four Russian reconnaissance drones. Later on 17 July, Russian forces reportedly struck Kherson oblast and Odesa oblast with two ballistic missiles (probably Iskandr-M). On the evening of 17 July, a drone targeted Kyiv; falling drone debris reportedly struck a residential building and an educational facility in the capital’s Darnytskyi district.
• STRIKES: Overnight on 17-18 July, Russian forces launched 16 Shahed-136/131 drones, two Kh-59/Kh-69 and one Kh-35 cruise missile. Ukrainian air defences intercepted all drones and Kh-59 missiles over Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. The attack damaged buildings in Nikopol (Dnipropetrovsk oblast).
• STRIKES: Meanwhile on 17 July, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that air defences shot down five Ukrainian drones over Bryansk and Belgorod oblasts. Russia’s MoD also reported that air defences destroyed 33 aerial drones over Crimea and two over Bryansk oblast on 18 July. The MoD also reported that the Russian Navy concurrently destroyed ten naval drones targeting Crimea. Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Russian governor of annexed Crimea, also reported that a Ukrainian naval drone attacked Sevastopol on 18 July. Razvozhayev claimed the drone was destroyed.
• STRIKES: Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes continue to strain Russia’s air defence capabilities, forcing Moscow to prioritise the defence of high-priority strategic targets. On 16 July, Ruslan Pukhovcivilan, an official of the Russian MoD, criticised Russia’s current strategy of concentrating air defence coverage around a restricted number of targets. Pukhov further noted that Moscow lacks air defence capabilities to ensure the security of priority facilities in Western regions. He urged the federal authorities to decentralise the organisation of the air defence coverage and warned that Ukrainian drones will likely reach targets deeper in Russia. However, any decentralisation of Russia’s increasingly scant air defence assets would highly likely expose key strategic nodes to Ukrainian attacks. The Kremlin is unlikely to redeploy air defence assets currently protecting high-priority objects such as President Vladimir Putin’s palace in Valdai (Leningrad oblast). Recent satellite imagery indicates that it is protected by no fewer than seven Pantsir-1 medium-range air defence systems.
• STRIKES: Kyiv’s successful efforts to strike Russian air defence systems will also further strain Moscow’s air defence capabilities. On 16 July, Ukrainian Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian S-300 air defence system in occupied Donetsk oblast. Syrskyi also claimed that Ukrainian forces destroyed around 20 S-300 systems and 15 radar stations over an unspecified period. We maintain that Kyiv’s efforts to degrade Russian air defence capabilities are likely aimed at preparing the ground for future long-range strikes and attacks with Western-provided F-16 aircraft.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• AID: Germany reportedly plans to halve its military assistance to Ukraine from around EUR 8bn (USD 8.74bn) this year to EUR 4bn (USD 4.37bn) in 2025. Reuters reported on 17 July that Berlin hopes that USD 50bn in loans from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets will cover the majority of Kyiv’s military needs. Since January 2022, Germany has allocated Ukraine the most military assistance out of all Western partners except the US, according to the Kiel Institute.
• AID: Although Berlin is likely counting on Ukraine being able to meet its defence requirements from other sources of funding, the reduction in support is noteworthy. Ultimately, European countries will likely struggle to maintain significant levels of military aid to Kyiv in 2025 if former US president Donald Trump is re-elected and US assistance is considerably curtailed. For further analysis, please see the Forecast below.
• AID: Meanwhile, Japanese media reported on 17 July that Tokyo intends to cover USD 3.3bn of the USD 5bn loan pledged by the G7 to Ukraine using interest accrued from frozen Russian assets. According to Kyodo News, the EU and the US are expected to shoulder USD 20bn each, while Canada, Japan and the UK are expected to share the remaining USD 10bn. Ukraine hopes to receive the funding by the end of the year. We expect that there will be multiple disbursement channels for different purposes, including military, budget, reconstruction and humanitarian aid. As such, the loan would highly likely ease concerns in Kyiv over funding for different national priorities.
• SANCTIONS: Bloomberg reported on 15 July that the UK intends to launch a ‘call to action’ alongside European nations to target Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers used to circumvent international sanctions. According to the report, an unspecified number of governments will endorse a plan on the sidelines of the European Political Community (EPC) summit in the UK later on 18 July. An unnamed insider familiar with the matter said the move could result in more punitive measures against Russian shadow fleet vessels. European states are also expected to urge flag and port states to ensure that safety rules are enforced. This would likely increase compliance and reduce risks given many shadow fleet ships are uninsured and poorly maintained.
• SANCTIONS: The UK’s Defence Intelligence (DI) assessed on 15 July that Russia’s recent implementation of an 11.2% increase in domestic gas prices was almost certainly in response to the loss of natural gas exports to Europe. The DI noted that gas prices for Russian households are estimated to have increased by nearly 34% since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine; they are expected to rise by a further 8.2% in 2025. Europe was Russian energy giant Gazprom’s largest sales market until 2022; the EU has committed to end its reliance on Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027. The report underscores how Europe’s divestment from Russian hydrocarbons has impacted the domestic market, incentivising Russian efforts to bolster revenues from different sources.

FORECAST

US: On 13 July, Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump was shot and wounded in his right ear in an assassination attempt while addressing a campaign rally in Butler. We assess that the assassination attempt will highly likely bolster support for Trump among Republican-leaning voters ahead of the November presidential election. This coincides with decreasing confidence in Biden’s cognitive ability among the US electorate.

Trump selected Ohio Senator James David (JD) Vance to be his running mate on 15 July; Vance has previously criticised Washington DC’s aid to Kyiv. In May, Vance stated that he believes it is not in the US’ interest to continue funding an ‘effectively never-ending war’ in Ukraine, claiming that Washington DC has contributed more than its fair share. Notably, Trump’s Vance said in February 2022 that he does not ‘really care about what happens to Ukraine one way or another’.

While Vance’s nomination is an important bellwether for how a possible Trump administration would shape policy on Ukraine, the vice president has little direct influence in setting the US policy agenda. If elected, Vance’s role would be to execute policies set out by Trump. Additionally, the presidential administration would work with Republican Congressional leadership to co-operate on executing the Republican agenda on Ukraine (e.g. possibly suspending military aid). Vance is unlikely to be decisive in shaping policy on Ukraine. However, he would likely be a prominent figure within the party and engage in a strong rhetorical critique of US support for security partners overseas (including Ukraine and Taiwan). We continue to assess that a second Trump policy would likely render the long-term provision of aid to Ukraine more volatile.

*Ukraine: Possible extension of repayment moratorium will undermine long-term economic outlook. On 18 July, Bloomberg reported that Ukraine’s ruling Servant of the People party submitted a bill proposing the suspension of international debt payments. The existing two-year moratorium on bond repayment agreed with commercial creditors expires on 1 August. With the war highly likely to continue into 2025, Ukraine is highly unlikely to resume debt repayments. While Western governments have agreed to suspend Ukraine’s debt reimbursement until 2027, commercial creditors have refused such a solution. In July, the EU Commission urged commercial creditors to accept a debt restructuring deal with Ukraine. International pressure will possibly succeed in prompting bondholders to agree to a debt suspension. However, we assess that an extension of the debt moratorium would undermine investor confidence in Ukraine. This would increase borrowing costs, restrict Ukraine’s access to capital markets and degrade Ukraine’s ability to finance post-war reconstruction efforts.

15 Jul. 24

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• OFFENSIVES: Ukrainian forces have been capturing Russian troops who are already suffering from wounds sustained during previous attacks; Russian forces are also reportedly using Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) as human shields
• NATO: Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg outlined his opposition to Poland shooting down Russian missiles over Ukraine
• SABOTAGE: Kyiv has refuted Russian accusations that Ukraine is preparing to blow up the dams at the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) and the Kaniv reservoir before then blaming Moscow; such statements highly likely form part of Russia’s deterrence campaign
• FORECAST: To mark Ukrainian Statehood Day (15 July), President Zelensky insisted that the war remains an existential fight for Ukrainian independence, while a new poll indicates that 49% of Ukrainians are in favour of beginning peace talks – albeit without concessions
• OFFENSIVES: On 14 July, The Telegraph revealed that Ukrainian forces have reported capturing Russian troops suffering from wounds sustained during previous attacks; they have also reported that Russian forces are using Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) as human shields. Russian commanders are seemingly pushing already wounded soldiers to conduct further grinding infantry attacks across the frontline, without providing them with any significant medical attention. One Ukrainian serviceman claimed that some captured Russian soldiers have reported that their own commander had explicitly outlined that no-one would be evacuated for medical attention until they had secured a specific objective near Kupiansk (Kharkiv oblast). We previously reported on the poor conditions in which Russian troops are often forced to fight, a situation which is driving already extremely high casualty rates.
• OFFENSIVES: On 12 July, the UK’s Defence Intelligence (DI) estimated that the average daily number of Russian casualties throughout May and June increased to 1,262 and 1,163, respectively; these are record high numbers. This places Russia’s likely casualties (killed and wounded) over this two-month period at over 70,000. These high casualty rates are likely to continue until such a time that the Russian military command begins to draw down its ongoing gruelling summer offensive. Meanwhile, extreme heat across Ukraine will further undermine fighting conditions for both sides; temperatures in Kyiv are expected to reach 37 C (98.6 F) this week.
• BAKHMUT: A spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortytsia Group of Forces, Nazar Voloshyn, stated on 12 July that Russian forces have shifted their focus away from Chasiv Yar towards the Toretsk axis. Over the last few days, there have been no confirmed Russian advances near Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian forces are continuing to utilise the defensive advantages of the Siverskyi-Donets-Donbas Canal, which currently protects the town’s eastern approaches. However, further south, Russian forces have been grinding forwards near Toretsk; geolocated footage published on 13 July indicated that they are now advancing to the eastern outskirts of Pivnichne (located to the east of Toretsk) and that they have made further ground in central Niu York (located south of Toretsk).
• BELARUS: On 13 July, Ukraine’s Centre of National Resistance reported that it had received intelligence indicating that Belarusian law enforcement agencies were preparing a false-flag operation near the border with Ukraine. The centre did not provide further information, stating that Minsk would seek to engineer a ‘provocation’ at the border in order to illustrate its capabilities during a visit by Chinese delegates and ongoing joint anti-terrorism exercises. However, shortly after the statement, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR), Andriy Yusov, stated that Ukraine observed no new threats or provocations amid its close monitoring of the joint Belarusian-Chinese exercises.
• BELARUS: While a major Belarusian provocation remains unlikely in the immediate term, the head of the GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, stated in an interview published on 13 July that he anticipates Russian forces will try to attack northern Ukraine ‘in the coming months’. Budanov did not specify where in the north, though he was likely referring to Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts via the Russian border, rather than via Belarus. Nevertheless, and as we have assessed in recent months, further Russian cross-border raids in north-eastern Ukraine are likely during the ongoing summer offensive. Furthermore, Budanov’s latest assessment aligns with our forecast. However, Russian and/or Belarusian forces ultimately do not retain sufficient offensive capabilities to threaten northern Ukrainian territory seriously; sporadic cross-border raids and drone strikes will likely remain the sum of any such spoiling operations.
• DONETSK: Russian forces have continued to conduct grinding offensive operations towards Porkovsk, making localised confirmed gains in that direction. Geolocated footage from 14 July confirmed Russian advances to the north of Sokil and to the north of Novoselivka Persha, both of which are located to the north-west of Avdiivka. Footage from 12 July indicated Russian progress in the north-eastern outskirts of Novoselivka Persha.
• KHARKIV: Geolocated footage published on 14 July indicated that Ukrainian forces successfully counter-attacked in central Vovchansk; they did not appear to abandon their attempts to surround forward Russian positions in the area. Ukrainian forces are likely positioned on the northern bank of the Vovcha River as far as a key intersection that is as close as 400m from Ukrainian positions on the other side of the Russian-held territory. Russian forces have likely crossed the Vovcha River to the south. This has further exposed their forward positions, which are consequently at risk of being cut off (though numerous Russian sources have denied that any such crossing took place in recent days). Nevertheless, Russian forces are likely still under significant pressure in the centre of Vovchansk as Ukrainian forces continue to conduct tactical counter-attacks that are threatening Russian forward positions, including around the aggregate plant.
• KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: The Oskil-Kreminna frontline has changed little in recent days, with modest advances achieved by both sides. Geolocated footage from 12 July indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced in a forest area west of Lyman Pershyi (north-west of Kupiansk) and east of Berestove (north-west of Svatove). Meanwhile, footage from 12 and 13 July shows Russian advances to the north-west of Kreminna, in southern and south-eastern Makiivka.
• SOUTHERN: On 14 July, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that its forces had taken control of Urozhaine, a village located around six miles (10km) south of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast) on the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia oblast border. While Ukrainian military officials maintain that fighting is ongoing in the village, other Ukrainian sources claim that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from the village. Geolocated footage from 12 July confirms that Russian forces raised a flag in the centre of the settlement, though we cannot confirm whether they control the entire village – some Russian sources maintain that they do not. Russian forces will likely continue to conduct sporadic offensive operations along the Mokri Yaly River valley in this area, but will need to consolidate control of Urozhaine before moving north towards the next village along the valley (Makarivka).
• STRIKES: Overnight on 11-12 July, Russian forces launched five Kh-101 cruise missiles and 19 Shahed-131/136 drones. Ukrainian forces intercepted all the missiles over Cherkasy, Khmelnytskyi and Sumy oblasts. In addition, 11 drones were destroyed over Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Vinnytsia oblasts. Ukraine’s air force reported that several projectiles headed towards Starokostiantyniv (Khmelnytskyi oblast), home to an important Ukrainian airbase. We previously assessed that the Starokostiantyniv airbase will remain a priority target for Russian strikes in the coming months due to Moscow’s efforts to undermine Kyiv’s ability to operate Western-provided F-16 aircraft in the future.
• STRIKES: On 13 July, Ukrainian forces intercepted four of the five Russian-launched Shahed-131/136 drones over Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts. Ukraine’s air force reported that the fifth drone left Ukraine’s airspace and entered Belarus.
• STRIKES: On 14 July, Ukrainian air defences intercepted two Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles and four Russian reconnaissance drones. Ukraine’s air force reported that overnight on 14-15 July, a Russian ballistic missile (possibly an Iskandr-M missile) struck Odesa oblast.
• STRIKES: Meanwhile, on 13 July, the governor of Rostov oblast (Russia), Vasily Golubev, reported that Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) hit an oil depot in Rostov’s Tsimlyansk district. Rostov is a key military logistics hub. As such, the attack underscores Ukraine’s continued focus on degrading Russian military logistics. This includes targeting oil infrastructure in Russia’s western regions to restrict Moscow’s ability to supply its frontlines.
• STRIKES: Over the past 24 hours, the Russian authorities reported that air defences intercepted 22 Ukrainian drones over Russian-occupied Crimea. The occupying authorities in Crimea reported a Ukrainian drone strike against Sevastopol on 15 July. Meanwhile, pro-Ukrainian Telegram groups reported that local residents heard eight explosions around Cape Fiolent (near Sevastopol). The drones reportedly targeted a base where a Russian military unit operates S-300 or S-400 air defence systems. If this is confirmed, the attack underscores Kyiv’s ongoing efforts to degrade Russian air defence capabilities in the Crimean Peninsula. Such attacks are likely aimed at preparing the ground for future long-range strikes and attacks conducted with Western-provided F-16 fighter jets.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• NATO: On 14 July, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg outlined his opposition to Poland shooting down Russian missiles over Ukraine. Stoltenberg emphasised that the military alliance upholds its policy that it will not be ‘involved’ in the conflict. According to Stoltenberg, NATO supports Ukraine in shooting down Russian assets but vowed that the bloc will not be directly involved. Kyiv and Warsaw signed a security agreement on 8 July which outlined the possibility of Poland intercepting Russian missiles and drones heading towards Polish territory over Ukraine.
• NATO: Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz stated on 10 July that a bloc-wide decision would be needed to enable Poland to shoot down Russian projectiles. As such, Stoltenberg’s comments reflect the alliance’s concerns over escalation with Russia, which will possibly continue to restrict the ways in which individual countries aid Ukraine over the course of the conflict.
• NATO: Nevertheless, reports emerged on 15 July that NATO will expand its presence in Ukraine as part of an effort to prepare for eventual accession. This includes the appointment of a special representative in the capital Kyiv. Unspecified insiders claim that European NATO members insist that this position should not be held by a US citizen to balance Washington DC’s influence. It is also likely that there will be a ‘large number’ of seconded officers from NATO member states in Ukraine. The development underscores that while Ukraine remains highly unlikely to join the alliance in the foreseeable future, the bloc continues to increase its support for (and presence in) the country.
• SABOTAGE: The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry (MFA) has refuted Russian accusations that Ukraine is preparing to blow up the dams at the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) and the Kaniv reservoir in false-flag operations it will then blame on Moscow. The ministry emphasised on 12 July that there is no plausible goal or motive for Ukraine to destroy its own infrastructure or to put its people at risk by conducting such acts. According to the MFA, Moscow aims to intimidate Ukrainian society and mislead the international community through making these accusations.
• SABOTAGE: This aligns with our assessment that such Russian accusations are part of Moscow’s ongoing strategic deterrence campaign aimed at intimidating Ukraine and its Western partners. Ukraine and Russia accused each other of destroying the Russian-controlled Kakhovka dam in Ukraine’s Kherson oblast in June 2023, which precipitated large-scale flooding (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 6 June 2023). The evidence suggests that Russia blew up the dam, which aligns with our assessment. Ultimately, Russia almost certainly remains more likely to sabotage Ukrainian HPPs and dams in the coming months. However, unlike the Kakhovka dam, Russian forces do not control the Kyiv and Kaniv sites, and so they have limited ability to breach this infrastructure even if they want to. For further analysis on this threat and previous examples of long-range attacks against the Dnipro HPP, see Sibylline Alert – 22 March 2024.

FORECAST

NEGOTIATIONS: To mark Ukrainian Statehood Day (15 July), President Volodymyr Zelensky asserted that Ukraine cannot accept less than to live and continue as a state, maintaining that the war is a battle for Ukrainian independence. Zelensky presented the conflict as an existential matter vis-à-vis Ukrainian statehood.

The remarks come amid growing pressure for Kyiv to enter into peace talks with Moscow. According to a survey published by a Ukrainian media outlet on 15 July, almost 44% of Ukrainians believe that it is time for official peace negotiations with Russia. In contrast, 35% of respondents oppose entering peace talks, while 21.1% are unsure. Opinions differ significantly across Ukraine; almost half (49%) of respondents from central Ukraine are open to starting negotiations with Russia. Meanwhile, just 35% expressed this view in the west of the country, compared with 33% in the east. Respondents in southern Ukraine were the most ready for Kyiv to enter into talks with Moscow (60%).

The survey nevertheless indicates that most Ukrainians oppose Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ‘conditions’ for peace. The vast majority of Ukrainians (76%) believe that Putin wants the war to end only on his terms – which recent statements by the Kremlin have essentially confirmed.

Some 82.8% of respondents stated that they are against the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, which Russia annexed in September 2022 but does not control fully. A similar percentage (83.6%) of Ukrainians surveyed oppose handing these territories over to Russia.

While over 40% of Ukrainians think it is time to begin peace talks with Russia, the majority of those surveyed (61.1%) are not prepared to make any concessions. This underscores that although societal opinion is leaning towards wanting to begin peace negotiations, Ukrainians do not want to compromise on ceding territory or on other issues, such as NATO membership. Refusal to compromise by either side underscores that peace talks are unlikely to take place any time soon. Ultimately, both Russia and Ukraine will have to make concessions when the time to enter negotiations does arrive. While international pressure to do so will likely continue to increase for the remainder of 2024, serious negotiations are unlikely to make much ground before 2025 at the earliest. For further analysis on Russia’s refusal to make concessions or to enter into talks. (Source: Sibylline)

 

18 Jul 24. UK defence firms discuss boosting support for Ukraine with Zelenskiy. Senior executives from British defence firms including BAE (BAES.L) and Babcock (BAB.L) met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday to discuss the need to boost military support for the country in its conflict with Russia.

Zelenskiy was in Britain for a summit of the European Political Community (EPC) and the meeting in London also included representatives from Thales (TCFP.PA) MBDA and KBR (KBR.N) as well as British defence minister John Healey and business minister Jonathan Reynolds.

“Meeting with industry leaders today, I emphasised the Government will continue to work in partnership with industry and the need to boost industrial production of vital military kit for both Ukraine and our own Armed Forces,” Healey said in a statement.

Babcock will extend its contract with the British defence ministry by six months to provide maintenance and repair of military vehicles, Britain’s defence ministry said.

Earlier on Thursday, Britain’s new prime minister, Keir Starmer, hailed European unity at the EPC summit, calling for deeper defence and security cooperation in order to better support Ukraine. (Source: Reuters)

 

17 Jul 24. Germany to halve military aid for Ukraine despite possible Trump White House. Germany plans to halve its military aid to Ukraine next year, despite concerns that U.S. support for Kyiv could potentially diminish if Republican candidate Donald Trump returns to the White House.

German aid to Ukraine will be cut to 4bn euros ($4.35bn) in 2025 from around 8 bn euros in 2024, according to a draft of the 2025 budget seen by Reuters.

Germany hopes Ukraine will be able to meet the bulk of its military needs with the $50bn in loans from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets approved by the Group of Seven, and that funds earmarked for armaments will not be fully used.

“Ukraine’s financing is secured for the foreseeable future thanks to European instruments and the G7 loans,” German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said on Wednesday at a news conference.

Washington pushed to “front load” the loans to give Ukraine a big lump sum now.

Officials say EU leaders agreed to the idea in part because it reduces the chance of Ukraine being short of funds if Trump returns to the White House.

Alarm bells rang across Europe this week after Trump picked Senator J.D. Vance, who opposes military aid for Ukraine and warned Europe will have to rely less on the United States to defend the continent, as his candidate for vice president.

Trump sparked fierce criticism from Western officials for suggesting he would not protect countries that failed to meet the transatlantic military alliance’s defence spending targets and would even encourage Russia to attack them.

00:13Police arrest man who drove into Paris cafe, killing one

Germany has faced criticism for repeatedly missing a NATO target of spending 2% of its economic output on defence.

DEPLETED MILITARY STOCKS

The stocks of Germany’s armed forces, already run down by decades of underinvestment, have been further depleted by arms supplies to Kyiv.

So far, Berlin has donated three Patriot air defence units to Kyiv, more than any other country, bringing down the number of Patriot systems in Germany to nine. (Source: Reuters)

 

18 Jul 24. Ukraine launches major attack on Russian Black Sea bases.

Ukraine launched a major overnight aerial and naval drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea bases.

Moscow’s defence ministry claimed to have downed 33 air drones and 10 unmanned Ukrainian boats headed for occupied Crimea, as residents in the port city of Sevastopol reported loud explosions.

Meanwhile, air raids rang out across Novorossiysk, where Moscow’s once-feared Black Sea Fleet is hiding after it was forced to abandon its base in Sevastopol, early on Thursday.

The city’s mayor warned residents to stay away from the shoreline. The damage of the attack is not yet known.

Earlier this month, Ukrainian naval drones targeting Novorossiysk, which is Russia’s largest port in the Black Sea and a major transit hub, sparked fires across the city.

(Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

17 Jul 24. Quantum-Systems confirms artificial intelligence drone upgrades deployed to Ukraine. Dual-use reconnaissance drone manufacturer Quantum-Systems has confirmed previously unreleased artificial intelligence sensor upgrades will be deployed to Ukraine.

The Munich-headquartered global manufacturer, with business locations in the United States, Australia, and Ukraine, has announced for the first time there will be deployment of “Receptor AI” sensor upgrades in Ukraine.

The new upgrade kit, based on a Jetson Orin Nvidia chip and several sensors for the Vector reconnaissance drone, will allow better object detection, classification, identification and tracking of objects.

In addition, further development enables optical navigation during the day, at night, and in poor visibility conditions as well as automated AI-supported object recognition and identification.

“We are demonstrating that AI does not have to be an abstract topic, but offers tangible benefits in use,” Quantum-Systems chief revenue officer and managing director Sven Kruck said.

“For Quantum-Systems, the combination of hardware and software is crucial to being able to offer market-leading solutions in the field of aerial intelligence.”

The new Quantum-Systems upgrade offers a further option for signal-independent positioning of reconnaissance drones and fundamentally improves their use under GNSS-denied conditions. The new module is being tested and further developed at the company’s recently opened development site in Ukraine.

“Receptor AI” enables autonomous flight at night and in bad weather thanks to infrared-supported visual navigation. Object sensor technology has also been significantly improved

“We are implementing the upgrade without any weight changes and with the same range,” said Daniel Kneifel, director of software engineering at Quantum-Systems.

“We are designing these adaptations without fundamental changes to the existing platform architecture.”

Earlier this month, the Australian government announced it would invest more than $100m to boost the ADF’s arsenal of drones, ensuring Australian military personnel are provided with cutting-edge lethal and non-lethal capabilities.

The acquisition of two small uncrewed aerial systems (SUAS) is expected to bolster the ADF’s ability to carry out surveillance and reconnaissance and augments the ADF’s existing stock of drones, including those with multiple payload options.

The Quantum-Systems Vector 2-in-1 and the Sypaq Systems CorvoX will enhance ADF force protection and potency capabilities across land and littoral operations by supporting the Australian Army and Royal Australian Air Force in confined areas, including small marine craft, and urban environments. Both systems can be deployed as a complement to crewed systems.

Quantum-Systems Australia was awarded two contracts under DEF129-SUAS, formerly known as LAND 129 Phase 4B, totalling $90m.

The award, signed 24 April 2024 in Brisbane, Queensland, is comprised of an acquisition contract to provide the Australian Defence Force (ADF) with Vector/Scorpion 2-in-1 fixed-wing eVTOL SUAS and a support contract for the provision of training, maintenance, engineering, supply and logistics, and support services. Delivery will begin April 2025 with support services continuing into 2031.

The acquisition and support contracts will have significant work and delivery elements performed by Quantum-Systems Australia in Redbank, Queensland, providing in-country capability for contract execution and contribution to the local economy with a focus on supporting Indigenous enterprises, SMEs, and entities promoting veteran employment.

The Vector 2-in-1 fixed-wing eVTOL UAS delivers real-time, high-resolution video for surveillance and reconnaissance missions. It is a rucksack portable solution that can be operational in three minutes and take-off and land in confined spaces without the need for additional tools or equipment. It can alternatively be configured as the Scorpion multi-copter by removing the wings and tail and attaching a separate set of booms and props.

“We are honoured to be selected by the Commonwealth of Australia to equip Army combat teams with our advanced SUAS that will provide them with the enhanced situational awareness and increased force protection they require,” Quantum-Systems chief executive officer Dave Sharpin said.

“We will continue to actively identify further opportunities for Australian industry, reinforcing our dedication to nurturing local talent and enhancing the nation’s defense capabilities.”

In addition, Quantum-Systems Australia recently opened its 22,755 square-foot manufacturing facility in March 2024, signifying a long-term commitment to Australia and dedication to fostering the creation, enhancement, and maintenance of Australian industry capabilities. The company is estimating up to 50 new engineering, manufacturing and administrative jobs for the area over the next five years to support its wider business growth plan in the Asia-Pacific region. (Source: Defence Connect)

 

18 Jul 24. Ukraine rushes to create AI-enabled war drones.

• Summary
• Artificial intelligence being applied in Ukraine war
• New technology takes warfare into uncharted territory
• In Ukraine, AI being applied to air and land drones
• AI helps drones identify targets, interact with each other
• Technology raises new ethical and security concerns

In Ukraine, a handful of startups are developing Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems to help fly a vast fleet of drones, taking warfare into uncharted territory as combatants race to gain a technological edge in battle.

Ukraine hopes a rollout of AI-enabled drones across the front line will help it overcome increasing signal jamming by the Russians as well as enable unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to work in larger groups.

AI drone development in Ukraine is broadly split between visual systems helping identify targets and fly drones into them, terrain mapping for navigation, and more complex programmes enabling UAVs to operate in interconnected “swarms”.

One company working on this is Swarmer, which is developing software that links drones in a network. Decisions can be implemented instantly across the group, with a human only stepping in to green-light automated strikes.

“When you try to scale up (with human pilots), it just doesn’t work,” Swarmer CEO Serhiy Kupriienko told Reuters in the company’s Kyiv offices. “For a swarm of 10 or 20 drones or robots, it’s virtually impossible for humans to manage them.”

Swarmer is one of more than 200 tech firms that have sprung up since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, with civilians from IT backgrounds developing drones and other devices to help Ukraine counter a much larger enemy.

Kupriienko said that while human pilots struggled to run operations involving more than five drones, AI would be able to process hundreds.

The system, called Styx, directs a web of reconnaissance and strike drones, both large and small, in the air and on the ground. Every drone would be able to plan its own moves and predict the behaviour of the others in the swarm, he said.

As well as scaling up operations, Kupriienko said automation would help protect drone pilots who operate close to the front lines and are a priority target for enemy fire. (Source: Reuters)

 

16 Jul 24. Ukraine and Czech producer to build ammunition factory in Ukraine. Czech Republic’s Prime Minister Petr Fiala and Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal pose with a cooperation agreement before a press conference during a meeting in support of Ukraine with Czech government ministers leaders and government representatives in Prague, Czech Republic, July 16, 2024. Ukraine’s state company Ukroboronservice and Czech ammunition maker Sellier & Bellot plan to build an ammunition factory in Ukraine, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Tuesday after joint government meetings in Prague.

The Czech Republic has been a major backer of Kyiv in its fight to push back Russian invaders, spearheading an initiative that has sourced hundreds of thousands of ammunition rounds from around the world.

“Among other agreements in the defenсe industry, a new rounds factory will be built in Ukraine. The agreement was signed between Sellier & Bellot and Ukroboronservice,” Shmyhal said, without providing further details.

“This is important for army supplies now.”

Czech gunmaker Colt CZ Group (CZG.PR)which acquired Sellier & Bellot this year, said it would provide machinery to make small-calibre ammunition as part of the project.

Another Colt CZ unit, Ceska Zbrojovka, also signed a technology transfer deal for its CZ BREN 2 rifles to be built in Ukraine, finalising earlier plans.

Shmyhal said Ukraine had received the first 50,000 ammunition shells from the Czech initiative launched earlier this year. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said the ammunition drive should continue into next year.

Around half a million artillery shells are expected to be delivered to Ukraine this year from the Czech drive, which uses contributions from NATO states and allies to source ammunition outside Europe. (Source: Reuters)

 

17 Jul 24. Putin fortifies palace to protect against Ukrainian drones. Ukrainian drone attacks deep within Russia have forced Moscow to beef up its defences around Vladimir Putin’s palace outside St Petersburg.

Satellite images revealed at least seven Pantsir-1 medium-range air defence systems have been stationed around Putin’s sprawling forest estate on the shores of Lake Valdai, according to the US-based think tank The Institute for the Study of War.

Ukraine’s relentless drone strikes, that have been successfully targeting Russian air bases, have forced Moscow’s military command “to prioritise limited air defence assets to cover what it deems high-value targets,” the ISW said.

Such static coverage could prove futile as Ukrainian drones can still bypass the air defences and strike from uncovered directions, analysts warned. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

16 Jul 24. Russian army chief thanks forces for capturing another key eastern village. The chief of Russia’s general staff General Valery Gerasimov has thanked Russian forces for recapturing the village of Urozhaine in Ukraine’s battered east. The alleged victory, if confirmed, would be the latest in a series of costly gains made by Moscow’s troops in the Donetsk region following the fall of the strategic hilltop city of Chasiv Yar earlier this month after a months-long bombardment.

General Gerasimov, who visited the warzone on Tuesday to hand out medals, then set new targets for his troops in the region, Russia’s defence ministry said without providing further details.

Moscow had claimed on Sunday its troops had seized control of Urozhaine, which had been liberated by Ukraine last July in its summer counteroffensive. Ukrainian bloggers reported that Kyiv’s forces had relinquished control of the village, but heavy fighting was ongoing in the area.

Ukraine is yet to officially comment on Russia’s claims, but on Sunday reported 18 different attacks on Urozhaine and nearby settlements.

It comes as Ukraine’s navy said that Russia has withdrawn its last naval patrol ship from occupied Crimea, a major victory for Kyiv in its sustained military campaign against the Black Sea peninsula.

“The last patrol ship of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation is bolting from our Crimea just now. Remember this day,” Ukrainian navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said.

Meanwhile, president Volodymyr Zelensky renewed his calls for more F-16s and Patriot missile systems to defend Ukraine’s skies, while the Pentagon issued a fresh warning against Kyiv using US-supplied Atacms long-range missiles to launch strikes inside Russia. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

16 Jul 24. Triumphant Ukraine says last Russian naval patrol ship left Crimea. Ukraine’s navy said that Russia has withdrawn its last naval patrol ship from occupied Crimea, a major victory for Kyiv in its sustained military campaign against the Black Sea peninsula.

“The last patrol ship of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation is bolting from our Crimea just now. Remember this day,” Ukrainian navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said.

With no warships at its disposal, Ukraine has used missiles and naval drone attacks to force Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet to abandon its headquarters at Sevastopol and retreat to the Russian port city of Novorossiysk. Vice-Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa, Ukraine’s navy chief, said earlier this month that Russia had been forced to rebase nearly all its combat-ready warships from the annexed peninsula. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

16 Jul 24. Donald Trump will quickly demand peace talks between Russia and Ukraine if he wins November’s US presidential election and has developed “well-founded plans” for doing so, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has claimed after private discussions with the Republican candidate. That prospect means the EU should reopen direct diplomatic communication with Russia and start “high-level” negotiations with China to find a peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine, the Hungarian prime minister said in a private letter to EU leaders following consultations in Moscow and Beijing. Orbán also said in the letter that on the basis of his recent discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the “general observation” was “that the intensity of the military conflict will radically escalate in the near future”. Moscow has relied heavily on Beijing to prosecute the conflict. Orbán’s office declined to comment when contacted by the Financial Times, which has seen his letter. Trump’s campaign team did not immediately respond to a request for comment. His trips to see Putin, Xi and Trump over the past two weeks while holding the EU’s rotating presidency have shocked his allies in the bloc and Nato. Many fear Orbán’s support for a peace settlement while Russia still controls vast amounts of eastern Ukraine plays into the Kremlin’s hands and undermines western resolve in support of Kyiv’s territorial integrity. “We can expect no peace initiative coming from [Trump] until the elections. I can however surely state that shortly after his election victory, he will not wait until his inauguration, but will be ready to act as a peace broker immediately,” Orbán wrote in his letter sent to European Council president Charles Michel and other EU leaders. “He has detailed and well-founded plans for this.” That means the EU should anticipate the shift in US policy, Orbán said, and either embrace the need for immediate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine or take on more responsibility for funding Ukraine’s defence. JD Vance, the Republican senator from Ohio who Trump on Monday selected as his running mate, used an opinion piece in the FT in February to call for Europe to take on a larger burden in supporting Ukraine. “I am more than convinced that in the likely outcome of the victory of President Trump, the proportion of the financial burden between the US and the EU will significantly change to the EU’s disadvantage when it comes to the financial support of Ukraine,” Orbán wrote in his letter. The Hungarian prime minister has long been the EU’s most pro-Russian leader, criticising western sanctions on Moscow and military support for Ukraine while demanding a ceasefire in the war and peace talks. That is in contrast to the EU’s joint position that it should aid Ukraine’s defence and that only Kyiv can decide on when to open negotiations with Russia. “Our European strategy in the name of transatlantic unity has copied the pro-war policy of the US,” Orbán wrote. “We have not had a sovereign and independent European strategy or political action plan up to now. I propose discussing whether the continuation of this policy is rational in the future.” Recommended Alexander Gabuev Russia is trying to put a price tag on Nato’s involvement in Ukraine He told EU leaders: “We can find a window of opportunity with a strong moral and rational basis to begin a new chapter in our policy . . . [and] make an effort to decrease tensions and/or create the conditions for a temporary ceasefire and/or start peace negotiations.” Orbán’s description of Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine tallies with a policy paper on the conflict written by two allies for the former president who are expected to take senior national security roles in his administration if he wins November’s US election. The plan by Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz of the America First Policy Institute proposed that the US continue to strengthen Ukraine’s defences, but future military aid would require Kyiv to participate in peace talks with Russia. (Source: FT.com)

 

15 Jul 24. Nato commits €40bn military aid to Ukraine and a new coordination body. Nato made a substantial military pledge to Ukraine within the next year, while also pursuing “a greater coordinating role for Nato in training and weapons support.”

Nato presents a step forward in its collective policy on Ukraine following the Washington Summit in July 2024.

On the one hand the alliance made a €40bn ($43.6bn) military aid pledge to the country within the next year while also pursuing “a greater coordinating role for Nato in training and weapons support.”

These multi-bn-euro funds are a welcomed surety, building on billions in security assistance, led by the US with $53.7bn since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, €11.1bn from the EU, £7.6bn ($9.86bn) from Britain, and more from other contributors.

However, it is difficult to discern any decisive changes within this latest show of support for Ukraine; a nation on the fringes of the continent battling it out with Russia while feeling the full brunt of fracturing support from some Nato members over the past year. Most notably the US, where the House of Representatives was unable to allocate the funds needed to prop up Ukraine’s forces between the end of 2023 and April 2024.

In that time, Russia had made some land grabs including the much fought over town of Avdivvka.

What is this new coordinating role?

The most important outcome from the Washington Summit was the creation of the Nato Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine. As yet largely undefined, this newfound body appears to add a new responsibility in which the alliance will manage its supplies and training already in play.

Hundreds of people will be working within the new body. Among other things, their aim is to enhance interaction with Ukraine, support burden-sharing among the allies and ensure transparency with regard to the contributions.

When asked about the potential impact, and whether the establishment of the new body could be considered escalatory, GlobalData Defence Analyst James Marques provided his thoughts:

“It is hard to say exactly what this entails in its details. Given this is not a huge expansion of what they are already doing, I don’t think it can be credibly described as escalatory. Though, of course part of that is in the eye of the Kremlin – but it is unlikely to produce any real change in tensions.”

Nato says it is not party to the conflict

Nato countries also agreed to strengthen civilian staffing at the Nato Representation to Ukraine in Kyiv and to appoint a Senior Representative as a focal point to ensure adequate coordination between Ukrainian needs, allied support and the multi-pronged efforts of Nato.

Although, the alliance stipulated that it will not have a military presence in Ukraine. “Nato’s stronger role in Ukraine does not make the alliance a party to the conflict,” assured the Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Espen Barth Eide. “But there is a deeper acknowledgement among the leaders of the alliance that the situation is grave for Ukraine and Euro-Atlantic security alike. The fact that we have reached this agreement for Ukraine is important in and of itself.” (Source: army-technology.com)

 

12 Jul 24. US “escalation” concerns block Ukraine’s ATACMS long range strike plea. The US DoD reiterated its position to deny Ukraine the ability to use ATACMS munitions to conduct long-range strikes inside Russian territory.

The US has opted to continue the prohibition of the use by Ukraine of Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) munitions in deep strike operation inside Russia in a bid to avoid “escalation”, according to a US Department of Defense (DoD) spokesperson.

The reaffirming of the stance by the US, through the DoD spokesperson on 12 July, came less then 24 hours after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for the ability by Ukraine to utilise long-range strike munitions against military targets deep inside Russian territory.

Despite being the single largest contributor of weaponry to Ukraine, the US has consistently held back from being the first to donate weapons that could be considered escalatory, from main battle tanks (first sent by the UK), to long range missiles (first sent by the UK and France), and even F-16 fighters, where once again European countries have shouldered the burden.

Ukraine eventually received a number of ATACMS munitions from the US, following strident opposition from within the Biden administration, keen to avoid being seen to, in its own terminology, escalate in the provision of high-end military capabilities to Kyiv.

It was only after the US and UK first approved the provision of Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles that Washington relented to permit ATACMS to be sent to Ukraine.

Speaking on 12 July, a US DoD spokesperson said that the Pentagon was “always mindful of escalation”, which appears to be the primary reason for the current ban on long-rang strikes by Ukraine inside Russia using ATACMS.

“[US President Joe Biden] spoke to this directly [on 11 July], our policy has not changed,” the DoD spokesperson said. “Right now, we have not authorised the use of ATACMS for deep strike capabilities within Russia.”

The spokesperson added that the US did allow Ukraine to conduct cross border strikes when Russia itself was attacking from the other side of the shared border – without stating the munitions used – which “could expand into other areas”.

Zelenskyy makes the case for ATACMS strikes

The impasse came at the end of the Nato Summit, held in Washington, during which the US and its allies made great public play to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia. However, key weapons, according to Zelenskyy, are either not being utilised to their fullest potential due to restrictions placed on their use by donors, or else long delayed in arrival.

In the post on social media platform X on 11 July, Zelenskyy stated that “ATACMS, SCALPs, and Storm Shadows would be even more effective if we could hit Russian military airfields from which planes carrying the glided bombs take off”.

Continuing his post, which was directed towards Nato member states, Zelenskky said that it was “only fair to destroy those military bases that are attacking us and killing our people”, emotively putting the case forward for a loosening of US and allied restrictions.

“Each of you would defend yourselves in the same way. We need this permission from our partners, and most importantly – from the United States,” Zelenskyy stated.

Ukraine hamstrung by US restrictions

Effectively, Ukraine is hamstrung by an inability to conduct the kind of long-range strike on Russia, that Russia itself is conducting on Ukraine. In doing so, Washington is making a conscious choice to provide equipment and capability enough to prevent a Ukrainian defeat but, through operational restrictions, make the likelihood of a victory by Kyiv a distinctly remote chance.

In military terms, Ukraine appears able to defend the frontlines, with Russia making tactical gains in its summer offensive.

However, without the ability to strike into Russia to hit key airfield and military logistics nodes, Ukraine will be unable to degrade Moscow’s military to determine favourable conditions for a future ceasefire or peace treaty.

With Kyiv continuing to be denied capabilities it says are required to win the war against Russia, which has resulted in hundreds of thousands of military and civilian deaths, an end to the brutal conflict is still distant. (Source: army-technology.com)

 

13 Jul 24. Russia loses ‘astronomical’ 70,000 troops in 60 days.

Uptick reflects opening of new Kharkiv front, with casualty rate of more than 1,000 a day expected over next two months, says MoD

Russia has lost more than 70,000 troops in the past two months, British military intelligence said on Friday.

The update by the Ministry of Defence added that the heavy losses would likely continue as Russia looked to make gains across the front lines in Ukraine.

“The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine, throughout May and June 2024, increased to conflict highs of 1,262 and 1,163 respectively,” the MoD wrote.

“In total, Russia likely lost (killed and wounded) in excess of 70,000 personnel over the past two months.”

Russia has made grinding gains in eastern Ukraine over the past months as Kyiv’s armed forces try to overcome crippling shortages in manpower and ammunition.

Moscow launched a new front in May with a cross-border offensive into Ukraine’s north-eastern Kharkiv region.

A senior Nato official described the losses as “astronomical” during a briefing on the fringes of the alliance’s summit in Washington DC this week.

“Russia likely suffered losses of almost 1,000 people a day in May, which is quite an astronomical figure,” the source said.

Though the offensive was short-lived, it stretched Ukrainian resources, enabling Russia to make further gains on their priority target of the nearby Donetsk region. However, it stretched Russian resources also, said the MoD.

“The uptick in losses reflects Russia’s opening of the new front in the Kharkiv region, while maintaining the same rate of offensive operations along the remainder of the front,” its update said.

“Although this new approach has increased the pressure on the front line, an effective Ukrainian defence and a lack of Russian training reduces Russia’s ability to stretch and exploit any tactical successes, despite attempting to stretch the front line further.” (Source: Daily Telegraph)

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