NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

Sponsored by Bertin Exensor

www.exensor.com

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-

Military And Security Developments

Jul 12.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

KHARKIV: Russian forces have successfully crossed the Vovcha River in Vovchansk; however, they are still taking extremely high casualties which will continue to slow the ongoing offensive
STRIKES: Independent analysis confirms that a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile struck the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital in the capital Kyiv; Russian forces are likely experimenting with new striking tactics
NEGOTIATIONS: Bloomberg reported that Ukraine is seeking to organise another peace summit before the US presidential election in November, though Russian attendance is unlikely at this stage
FORECAST: NATO leaders gathered in the US at the capital Washington DC from 9-11 July to mark the 75th anniversary of the alliance; attendees confirmed additional funding and military transfers for Ukraine, aiding operational planning
BAKHMUT: Russian forces are steadily advancing in the Toretsk direction (Donetsk oblast) south of Bakhmut amid a high tempo of guided glide bomb attacks. Geolocated footage published on 10 July indicates that Russian forces have advanced towards the northern outskirts of Pivdenne (Donetsk oblast), while Russian forces have also advanced further into the centre of Niu York, located less than four miles (6km) south of Toretsk. In addition, a Ukrainian service person currently fighting in Toretsk reported on 9 July that Russian forces are launching three or four guided glide bomb attacks against Ukrainian positions in the area every 30 minutes; this would represent a very high tempo of such attacks and would likely suppress Ukrainian defensive capabilities significantly.
BAKHMUT: Russian sources claim that its forces have been able to advance in this heavily defended area because elements of the Russian ‘Veterany’ Assault Brigade have dug 90cm wide tunnels which enable soldiers to crawl through. This would allow them to bypass the heavy fortifications which have been in place in this direction since 2014. We cannot confirm this claim, though such tactics could realistically have facilitated some advances in the direction in addition to Ukraine’s likely personnel shortages in the area, as previously assessed.
DONETSK: Over the past few days, Russian sources have made unconfirmed claims of advances in the Donetsk sector. On 9 July, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that its forces captured Yasnobrodivka, a settlement west of Avdiivka. A Russian milblogger made similar claims on 30 June. However, Ukrainian military authorities denied such claims and there is no visual evidence corroborating them. Overall, fighting persists in the sector, especially along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk line; there have been no confirmed Russian advances in recent days.
KHARKIV: Geolocated footage published on 7 July indicates that Russian forces have crossed the Vovcha River that runs through the centre of Vovchansk (Kharkiv oblast) for the first time. Russian sources claimed on 9 and 10 July that their forces had crossed the Vovcha River and penetrated further south into the centre of the city. However, the extent of these advances remains unclear. Confirmation that Russian forces have crossed the river indicates that their control of the aggregate plant on the northern banks of the river is not as tenuous as previously thought, with Ukrainian forces likely unable to threaten to cut these forces off. Russian forces have not yet secured control of the entire northern bank of the river. As a result, it is notable that they are pushing south across the river despite sustaining increasingly high casualties and prevailing uncertainty around the strength of Russian reserves in the area.
KHARKIV: On 10 July, the Chief of Staff of Ukraine’s Kharkiv Group of Forces, Viktor Solimchuk, reported that since the beginning of the Kharkiv offensive in May, Russian forces have suffered 2,939 fatalities and 6,509 non-fatal casualties, with 45 surrendering to Ukrainian forces. With a total estimated casualty rate of 10,350, Solimchuk claims that this represents a 91% casualty rate. While we cannot confirm this, Russian forces have highly likely suffered extremely high casualty rates on this axis, underscoring the increasingly attritional nature of the fighting during the ongoing summer offensive. Various reports from both Ukrainian and Russian sources further indicate that numerous Russian units that had been fighting on the Kharkiv axis are now combat-ineffective, including the 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade.
KHARKIV: On 9 July, the official Telegram channel of the Africa Corps, the Wagner Group legacy private military company controlled by the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD), confirmed that some of its units have been fighting on the Belgorod border ‘for some time’. The group claimed unspecified units have been engaged in operations to create a so-called ‘buffer zone’ along the Kharkiv oblast border since the ‘first days’, suggesting they have been involved in the Kharkiv offensive since May. We previously reported on the potential deployment of Africa Corps units to the Kharkiv axis. However, given the extremely high casualty rates sustained during the offensive, it remains unclear what capability these Africa Corps units retain (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 18 April 2024).
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage from 7 July indicates that Russian forces made moderate advances north-west of Verbove, located six miles (10km) east of Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast). Notably, geolocated footage published on 8 July showed Ukrainian forces repelling a small-scale Russian attack which included Russian troops mounted on what appears to be a golf cart as well as an infantry fighting vehicle near Robotyne. This further indicates a trend seen across the southern axis in recent months, with Russian forces using civilian vehicles during attacks. This likely reflects vehicle shortages on this section of the frontline; it could also realistically reflect attempts to experiment with much lighter vehicles that can more easily traverse minefields, as we have previously assessed.
STRIKES: Following the lethal large-scale missile attack (38 missiles) on 8 July, forensic analysis indicates that a Russian Kh-101 missile struck the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital in the capital Kyiv. An independent investigation by the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) confirmed that it was a Russian missile. This negates claims made by certain Russian sources that a Ukrainian air defence interceptor missile struck the hospital.
STRIKES: The success of the 8 July attack, which notably took place during daylight hours, was likely due to a combination of continued Ukrainian air defence shortages and innovative new strike tactics. Former Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat reported that during the 8 July attack, Russian cruise missiles flew at ‘extremely low’ altitudes. Ihnat explained that this resulted in Ukrainian air defences attempting to intercept cruise missiles as low as 50m, ensuring a narrow window for potential interception.
STRIKES: Russian forces have also been experimenting with reducing the electromagnetic footprints of reconnaissance drones that play a role in guiding the cruise and ballistic missiles to their target. Success in this regard will likely severely reduce the detection rate of Russian strikes and the ability of Ukrainian air defences to intercept missiles before they reach the target. Such innovations in tactics and possible technological developments in newer versions of the Kh-101 will present challenges to Ukraine’s air defence network. Although Ukraine has traditionally achieved a relatively high interception rate of Kh-101s, Moscow’s efforts to roll out upgraded versions of these missiles will increasingly challenge Ukraine’s ability to maintain a high interception rate of such projectiles.
STRIKES: On 10 July, Russian forces launched one Iskandr-M ballistic missile, four Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles and 20 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted 14 drones over Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Rivne and Vinnytsia oblasts. Ukraine’s Air Force reported that the Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles failed to reach their targets. The attack targeted port infrastructure in Odesa (Odesa oblast), killing two port workers and damaging a civilian ship.
STRIKES: Overnight on 10-11 July, Ukrainian forces intercepted six Russian-launched Shahed-136/131 drones over Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv and Mykolaiv oblasts. However, they failed to intercept two Iskandr-M ballistic missiles, which reportedly struck Sumy oblast.
STRIKES: Meanwhile, overnight on 8-9 July, Ukraine launched around 40 drones against energy and military facilities in Astrakhan, Kursk, Rostov and Volgograd oblasts. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) and Military Intelligence (GUR) reportedly co-ordinated the attack, which targeted the Aktyubinsk military airfield in Astrakhan oblast, an electrical substation in Rostov oblast and an oil storage facility in Kalach-on-Don in Volgograd oblast. Ukrainian media outlets also reported that drones hit electrical substations at an oil refinery and gas station in Kursk oblast and an electrical equipment plant in Belford city (Belgorod oblast).
STRIKES: On 10 July, an unnamed high-ranking NATO official allegedly stated that Ukrainian long-range strikes have put almost 17% of Russia’s refining capacity offline. In May, Washington DC reported that such attacks had disabled 14% of Russian oil capacity. While this likely confirms the growing effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes, we continue to assess that Moscow retains substantial oil overproduction capacity which will offset the economic impact of such attacks in the medium term. These strikes will, nonetheless, strain Russian domestic supplies, especially with Ukrainian attacks against logistical nodes and transport infrastructure.
STRIKES: Early on 11 July, Russian air defences reportedly intercepted drones targeting Russia’s capital, Moscow. Russian authorities also reported Ukrainian drone attacks later on 11 July against Belgorod and Bryansk oblasts. The drone strikes also reportedly disrupted energy supplies in a village in Bryansk.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

NEGOTIATIONS: On 10 July, Bloomberg reported that Ukraine is seeking to organise another peace summit before the US presidential election in November. This likely underscores Kyiv’s concerns regarding the possible re-election of former president Donald Trump. A Trump victory would possibly undermine the long-term trajectory of US military aid to Ukraine, thereby weakening Kyiv’s ability to continue fighting the highly attritional war against Russia. Ukraine is also reportedly keen on inviting Russia, which was absent from the previous June summit in Switzerland.
NEGOTIATIONS: China, which has attempted to present itself as a possible peace broker, did not attend the event. Beijing explained that it has always insisted that an international peace conference should be endorsed by both Russia and Ukraine while also involving the equal participation of all parties. Global South nations with stronger ties to Moscow likely maintain a similar stance.
NEGOTIATIONS: Although Moscow has dismissed previous peace events as meaningless without its participation, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said earlier on 11 July that Russia would not attend. This is despite Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán reportedly claiming that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping believe new peace talks will occur before the end of the year. Galuzin accused Kyiv of disregarding other initiatives to resolve the ‘Ukrainian crisis’ and asserted that Moscow would not accept any ultimatums.
NEGOTIATIONS: This likely means that Russia does not want to consider Ukraine’s visions for peace. Russia recently ruled out ceasefire negotiations unless Ukraine capitulates, underscoring that Russia will highly likely maintain its maximalist goals in Ukraine. Overall, the prospects of a joint Ukraine-Russia summit remain low in the run-up to the US election, especially given the reluctance of unnamed US officials. As such, we assess that a peace agreement is unlikely before the end of this year. However, if Trump wins in November, pressure from Washington DC to resume talks will likely increase in early 2025.
INDIA: Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met in Moscow on 8- 9 July and agreed to bolster trade between their two countries. The two leaders pledged to increase annual bilateral trade to USD 100 bn by 2030 up from USD 65 bn at present, underscoring how Moscow seeks to develop trade ties with India over the longer term. India’s Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra claimed on 9 July that Russia has promised to discharge Indians who were ‘misled’ into joining the Russian army. Ultimately, we assess that Russian crypto-mobilisation and deceptive tactics to bolster manpower will nevertheless continue in the coming months despite Modi’s complaints over the issue. However, these efforts will possibly focus on non-Indians going forward.

FORECAST

NATO: NATO leaders gathered from 9-11 July in the US to mark the 75th anniversary of the alliance. The event was held in the capital Washington DC. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg declared on 10 July that Ukraine’s path towards the military bloc is ‘irreversible’, noting that the organisation’s ongoing commitments to Kyiv constitute a bridge towards membership. We previously assessed that Ukraine was highly unlikely to receive an invitation to join NATO at the summit, as has been the case (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 20 June 2024).

Stoltenberg said that weapons deliveries, including F-16 fighter jets, bilateral security agreements and other arrangements constitute concrete actions that will bring Kyiv closer to membership. A declaration on 10 July emphasised that Ukraine’s future is in NATO and that it has become increasingly interoperable and politically integrated with the alliance. It also stated that NATO leaders will be in a position to extend an invitation to Kyiv to join when member states reach an agreement and unspecified conditions are met. This highly likely reaffirms our assessment that Ukrainian membership in NATO is a remote prospect for as long as the war continues.

The military alliance announced that it intends to provide a minimum of EUR 40bn (almost USD 43.4bn) in funding to Ukraine within the next year. NATO also pledged the provision of sustainable levels of security assistance for Kyiv, taking into account its needs, member states’ bilateral security agreements with Ukraine and respective national budgets. As such, the announcement highly likely seeks to provide assurances of guaranteed military assistance to Kyiv over the coming months, which will likely aid in Ukrainian military planning and resource allocation over the period.

The White House released a joint statement on 9 July which announced the provision of additional air defence systems to Ukraine – a key vulnerability at present. It stipulated that Germany, Romania and the US would each donate additional air defence system batteries. The statement also confirmed that the Netherlands and other unnamed partners would transfer components for an additional Patriot battery and that Italy will send a SAMP-T air defence system, meaning that five air defence systems will be dispatched in total. However, some of these pledged air defence capabilities are not new announcements; Romania pledged to send an air defence system to Ukraine in late June. We assess that the provision of additional air defence systems will almost certainly remain critical for countering Russian attacks and minimising the lethality of strikes against Ukrainian urban centres in the coming months, particularly amid the continued evolution of Russia’s striking capabilities and tactics (see STRIKES above).

US President Joe Biden, alongside Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, disclosed on 10 July that the Netherlands and Denmark are in the process of donating F-16s to Ukraine. The joint statement noted that the transfer of these US-made fighter jets is now underway, with Ukraine expected to fly them this summer. It is unclear how many aircraft Kyiv will receive in the near term, though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on 9 July that his country needs at least 128 F-16 fighter jets. Ultimately, the provision of F-16 aircraft in sufficient numbers will highly likely enhance Ukraine’s air capabilities. However, given significant pressures relating to F-16 logistics and Ukraine’s ongoing air defence shortages, the F-16s are likely to be deployed in an air defence role at first, rather than focusing on offensive ground support roles.

Europe: Russian assassination plots against defence industry executives remain credible threat. On 11 July, CNN reported confirmation from five US and Western officials that, earlier this year, US intelligence uncovered Russian government plans to assassinate the chief executive of the German defence manufacturer Rheinmetall. The sources maintain that the assassination plot was one of a series aimed at assassinating defence industry executives across Europe for supporting Ukraine; they claim that the plot against Rheinmetall’s Armin Papperger was the most mature. US intelligence alerted German intelligence, which reportedly succeeded in foiling the plot. This revelation reflects the escalating nature of Russia’s ongoing destabilisation campaign across Europe. US sources also confirmed on 9 July that numerous US military bases in Europe had increased their alert level in response to intelligence that Russian-backed actors were planning to sabotage US facilities and attack US personnel. The assassination of defence industry executives supplying Ukraine will remain a credible threat across Europe as part of Russia’s ongoing campaign. However, due to the Russian intelligence services’ likely high penetration in Germany, executives in the country will remain particularly vulnerable to further Russian plots, whether conducted by professional agents or amateur organised crime groups.
Russia-Ukraine: Proposal for peace summit is unlikely to improve prospects for war settlement. On 10 July, Bloomberg reported that Ukraine is seeking to organise a peace summit before November’s US presidential election. This likely underscores Kyiv’s concerns regarding the possible re-election of Donald Trump. A Trump victory would possibly undermine the long-term trajectory of US military aid to Ukraine, thereby weakening Kyiv’s ability to continue fighting the highly attritional war against Russia. Ukraine is also reportedly keen on inviting Russia, which was absent from the previous summit in June in Switzerland, though Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that Russia will not attend. Overall, the prospects of a joint Ukraine-Russia summit remain low in the run-up to the US election, especially given the reluctance of unnamed US officials. Furthermore, Russia recently ruled out ceasefire negotiations unless Ukraine capitulates, underscoring that Russia highly likely maintains its maximalist goals in Ukraine. As such, we assess that a peace agreement is unlikely before the end of this year. However, if Trump wins in November, pressure from Washington DC to resume talks will likely increase in early 2025.

Jul 09

*Russia: New cyber espionage campaign points to heightened security risks for government entities. On 8 July, the cyber security company Kaspersky reported that a new advanced persistent threat (APT) group, ‘CloudSorcerer’, is targeting government entities in Russia in a highly sophisticated cyber espionage campaign. Although the initial attack vector is unknown, the threat actors download the malware onto compromised systems. The malware executes backdoor and command and control (C2) modules depending on which processes are running on the compromised systems, thus highlighting its ability to adapt dynamically. The backdoor module collects system information while maintaining a connection to actor-controlled C2 infrastructure to conduct additional malicious activities. Notably, Cloudsorcerer’s C2 infrastructure comprises several public cloud services, allowing it to circumvent network defence mechanisms. Cloudsorcerer’s infrastructure and its tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) underscore its high sophistication as well as the operation’s extensive planning. The security and espionage risks facing Russian organisations are therefore heightened, particularly as the war in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions persist.

Jul 08.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

BAKHMUT: Russian forces have seized the eastern micro-district of Chasiv Yar; further advances to the south around Toretsk and Niu York likely indicate Ukrainian vulnerabilities
STRIKES: Russian forces launched a large-scale daytime missile strike on 8 July, causing severe damage to multiple cities, including the capital Kyiv, as well as a civilian hospital
NEGOTIATIONS: Russian President Vladimir Putin has directly ruled out the possibility of ceasefire negotiations unless Ukraine capitulates; this represents a hardening of the Kremlin’s official stance and aligns with our assessment that talks remain unlikely
FORECAST: On 7 July, the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) became the largest alliance in the French National Assembly after the second round of voting in the snap parliamentary election, reducing the risk of a change to France’s Ukraine policy
BAKHMUT: Russian forces have successfully seized the eastern micro-district of Chasiv Yar, located due west of Bakhmut; they are now preparing to take the heavily defended town itself. Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortytsia Grouping of Forces Nazar Voloshyn confirmed on 4 July that Ukrainian forces had withdrawn from the micro-district as its continued defence became untenable. Ukrainian forces have now withdrawn across the Siverskyi-Donets-Donbas Canal; a Ukrainian brigade operating in the area confirmed on 6 July that the canal is now the de facto line of contact, and will present the most immediate obstacle for further Russian advances. Russian forces have further consolidated control of the eastern bank of the canal to the north of the microdistrict, though crossing the canal will remain a significant tactical challenge as the bridges have been destroyed and Chasiv Yar itself sits on an elevated position, providing the defenders with a tactical advantage.
BAKHMUT: Russian forces are also successfully advancing further south towards Toretsk, from where they are likely to increase pressure on Chasiv Yar’s southern flank as it sits on the western bank of the canal. Geolocated footage has confirmed our previous assessment that Russian forces are now operating in the eastern outskirts of both Pivnichne and Pivdenne, located due east of Toretsk, with footage from 7 July indicating that they are continuing to advance slowly into the centre of Pivdenne. However, Russian forces have also achieved limited advances further south, with geolocated footage from 6 July confirming that they have progressed into the south-western sectors of New York (Niu York), located around four miles (6km) south of Toretsk.
BAKHMUT: We previously assessed that the Toretsk sector likely remained a weak point in the Ukrainian front. In line with this assessment, soldiers from the 206th battalion of the 241st Brigade defending the area openly reported on 5 July that their unit has received ‘no support’ and is suffering from personnel shortages. While we cannot confirm this, it appears that Russian forces are successfully exploiting limited Ukrainian capabilities in the area, at least in the short term. It is unclear if or when Ukrainian forces will commit additional reinforcements to the area, as they remain thinly stretched amid Russian forces’ continued attacks at multiple points along the frontline.
DONETSK: In recent days, Russian forces likely captured a new settlement to the north-west of Avdiivka as part of their wider offensive push towards Pokrovsk. On 6 July, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that its forces captured the village of Sokil, located to the north-west of Avdiivka. While the capture of the settlement has yet to be visually confirmed, we assess that Ukraine has likely lost the settlement to Russian forces. Geolocated footage from 6 July shows Russian forces advancing within western Sokil and towards Voskhod (also situated to the north-west of Avdiivka). The likely seizure of Sokil would underscore Russia’s grinding offensive operations towards Pokrovsk in recent weeks, which have resulted in incremental gains for Moscow along this line.
KHARKIV: Heavy fighting continues in Vovchansk; despite some limited Russian advances, Ukrainian forces are also continuing to launch counter-attacks that are pushing Russian forces back in certain places. However, the city centre ultimately remains heavily contested; Russian forces are in control of almost the entirety of the aggregate plant, which Ukrainian forces are currently attempting to isolate.
KHARKIV: Meanwhile, Russian forces are continuing to launch sporadic and limited cross-border raids elsewhere along the international border in a likely bid to force Ukrainian forces to screen the border and stretch their defences. On 4 July, Ukrainian forces confirmed that a Russian ‘sabotage and reconnaissance group’ crossed the international border and entered the village of Sotnytskyi Kozachok (Kharkiv oblast), located around 28 miles (45km) north-west of Kharkiv city. We previously predicted that Russian forces would conduct further such cross-border raids along the eastern Ukrainian border, though these operations remain small and are unlikely to pose a credible threat to Ukrainian forces or cities in Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. Nevertheless, larger offensive operations along the international border remain a realistic possibility in the coming months.
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: In recent days, Russian offensive efforts have remained limited along the Oskil-Kreminna line, likely due to the effectiveness of Ukrainian defences in the sector. Geolocated footage from 6 July confirms marginal Russian advances east of Pishchane, situated to the south-east of Kupiansk, following a reinforced platoon-sized mechanised assault. A Ukrainian military observer explained that the density of Ukrainian minefields and intense artillery fire have impeded the assault from achieving important advances.
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: Early on 6 July, Ukrainian forces intercepted 24 of 27 Russian-launched Shahed-131/136 drones. The unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were destroyed over Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Overnight on 6-7 July, Russia launched two Iskandr-M ballistic missiles and 13 Shahed 131/136 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted all the drones over Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Poltava and Sumy oblasts, but not the ballistic missiles.
STRIKES: Earlier on 8 July, Russian forces targeted Ukraine with four Kh-101 missiles and two Iskandr-M ballistic missiles. Ukrainian forces intercepted three Kh-101 missiles over Cherkasy and Zhytomyr oblasts.
STRIKES: Later on 8 July, Russian forces launched a large-scale daytime missile strike involving 38 projectiles; it caused severe damage to multiple cities, including the capital Kyiv. The attack included one Kh-47 Kinzhal ballistic missile, four Iskandr-M ballistic missiles, one 3M22 Tsirkon cruise missile, 13 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 14 Kalibr cruise missiles, two Kh-22 cruise missiles and three Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles. This is the second time since the start of the war that Russia has employed the Tsirkon cruise missile, which is a new sea-launched missile. Although it is used primarily as an anti-ship weapon, it also has littoral attack capabilities. The Tsirkon has a reported range of up to 625 miles (1,000km) and can reach an alleged maximum speed of Mach 9. Ukrainian forces reportedly intercepted the Kinzhal ballistic missile, three Iskandr-M ballistic missiles, 11 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 12 Kalibr cruise missiles and all Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles – if accurate, this would represent a relatively high interception rate (especially vis-à-vis ballistic missiles).
STRIKES: Russia’s MoD claimed that the 8 July attack targeted defence industry sites and aviation bases across Ukraine. A Russian media outlet reported that, according to local residents, explosions were heard near Kyiv’s Igor Sikorsky International Airport (IEV). In the capital, the missiles struck the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital, killing at least ten people. Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, reported that three transformer substations in Kyiv were damaged. Damage was also reported in Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk). The Ukrainian authorities reported that the attack also struck an industrial facility in Pokrovsk (Donetsk). Despite Moscow’s claims of solely targeting military sites, the latest attacks underscore the elevated threats posed by Russia’s long-range campaign to civilian infrastructure across Ukraine – including children’s hospitals.
STRIKES: Meanwhile, overnight on 5-6 July, a Ukrainian drone strike targeted oil infrastructure at an oil depot in Krasnodar Krai (Russia). The local authorities reported that falling debris caused a fire at an oil storage facility in Pavlovskaya; a Russian opposition outlet also reported that a fire broke out at another facility in Leningradskaya. On 7 July, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) co-ordinated a drone attack that successfully hit an ammunition depot in Sergeevka (Voronezh oblast, Russia). A Ukrainian media outlet reported that the depot stored surface-to-surface missiles, as well as surface-to-air missiles, tank and artillery ammunition and small arms rounds. The attack formed part of Kyiv’s ongoing strategy to undermine key Russian military logistics infrastructure and to prevent Russian military supplies from reaching the frontline.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

HUNGARY: On 5 July, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow (Russia), which the former claimed was part of a ‘peace mission’. Orbán noted that although many steps were needed to end the war and that the positions of both sides remained far apart, the visit had been the first step to restore dialogue. President of the European Council Charles Michel stated on 4 July that the EU rotating presidency, which Hungary recently assumed, has no mandate to engage with Russia on behalf of the EU. Budapest’s Moscow-friendly stance and Orbán’s attempts to position himself as an advocator of peace will almost certainly sustain tensions within the bloc and Kyiv in the coming months.
NEGOTIATIONS: On two separate occasions on 4 and 5 July, Russian President Vladimir Putin directly ruled out the possibility of a ceasefire negotiation unless Ukraine capitulates. Putin spoke at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) annual summit in Kazakhstan on 4 July, where he stated that Russia demands Ukraine’s ‘irreversible […] demilitarisation’ as a condition for ceasefire talks. On 5 July (and during Orbán ‘s visit to Moscow), he also stated that Russia is pursuing a ‘complete’ and ‘final’ end to the war that will achieve Russian objectives (all while rejecting ceasefire negotiations). Notably, he denied that the Ukrainian parliament (the Verkhovna Rada) is a possible negotiating partner, even after his government had previously stated it was the only legitimate institution in Ukraine. Putin also dismissed the possibility of third parties taking part in negotiations – seemingly undermining Orban’s likely attempt to present himself as a possible future mediator.
NEGOTIATIONS: These latest statements mark a hardening of the Kremlin’s position on negotiations, to which it had previously paid lip service while maintaining that it wanted to engage in some form of talks. Ultimately, this aligns with our overall assessment that Moscow is not serious about entering into peace talks in the short-to-medium term, given its likely belief that it can achieve more of its objectives through an attritional war that will see Russian forces outlast Ukraine. Nevertheless, the prospect of any negotiations in 2025 will remain heavily contingent on the outcome of the US presidential election in November. For further analysis, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 17 June 2024.
BORDER: Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service (DPSU) will check the military registration documents of all Ukrainian men aged 18-60 at the border from 17 July, underscoring their efforts to clamp down on potential military-suitable citizens from leaving the country. The spokesperson of the DPSU, Andriy Demchenko, stated on 5 July that these documents can be presented either in paper or electronic form. Border guards will bar men in this category from crossing the border and leaving Ukraine if they fail to present this document from 17 July, according to Demchenko. Men who are granted deferment from conscription or are excluded from military registration due to health conditions have the right to cross the border if this information is included in their documents.
AID: The EU has reportedly significantly overestimated its shell production capacity and failed to meet its promised delivery volumes to Ukraine, according to a journalistic investigation published on 8 July. According to the report, existing stocks of 155mm artillery shells are possibly at least twice as modest as high-ranking EU officials claim. The report stated that the bloc has provided Kyiv with half of the shells it promised as of June (with their delivery also reportedly significantly delayed). Ukraine was estimated to need 200,000 155mm artillery shells each month in early February. Meanwhile, an unspecified insider close to Slovakia’s artillery production disclosed that Europe’s current total production capacity is around 580,000 shells per year.
AID: Unspecified arms companies stated that the problem is linked to a global shortage of gunpowder and explosives, as well as a lack of funds to finance the industry given Western countries’ reluctance to sign long-term contracts. Ultimately, the report underscores the bloc’s likely long-term inability to supply Ukraine with sufficient artillery shells at scale or to ramp up production significantly if US support dwindles after November’s presidential election. For further analysis on ammunition shortages.
ENERGY: Kyiv has restored two-thirds of its energy generating capacity that was lost due to recent Russian attacks, according to a senior city official. Deputy Head of Kyiv’s City State Administration Petro Panteleev revealed on 6 July that the strikes had damaged more than half of the capital’s generating capacity. Panteleev added that the local authorities are also developing autonomous facilities to cope with possible power outages in preparation for the winter months. While the remarks underscore a likely improvement in Kyiv’s energy security, it is highly likely that the generating capacity in other Ukrainian oblasts remains seriously damaged. As such, energy insecurity and sporadic blackouts across Ukraine will almost certainly persist in the coming months.

FORECAST

FRANCE: On 7 July, the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) became the largest alliance in the French National Assembly after the second round of voting in the country’s snap parliamentary election. Opinion polls had predicted a hard-right victory for the nationalist and Eurosceptic National Rally (RN) party in the second-round ballot (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 4 July 2024). Although the second round of voting failed to produce a governing majority, RN’s inability to secure an absolute majority will have improved the likelihood of sustained French assistance to Ukraine moving forward. The NFP has vowed that it will continue supplying arms to Ukraine and that it would ‘unfailingly defend’ the sovereignty and freedom of the Ukrainian people. Meanwhile, critics have accused RN of being Russia-friendly.

Ahead of the parliamentary election, Marine Le Pen, the figurehead of RN, stated that a prime minister from her party would block Kyiv from using French-supplied long-range weapons to strike inside Russia. In comments to CNN published on 5 July, Le Pen revealed that her only red line was stopping Paris from becoming a ‘co-belligerent’ in the war by using such capabilities against targets in de jure Russian territory. Le Pen also stated that an RN prime minister would prevent the deployment of French troops to Ukraine if they were against such a move – policies that clearly contradict French President Emmanuel Macron’s strategic ambiguity strategy vis-à-vis Ukraine. Macron announced in early June that he would soon finalise a coalition with the aim of sending military instructors to Ukraine. As Paris’ foreign and defence policy falls under the remit of the president, France’s Ukraine policy is unlikely to change in the short-to-medium term. However, elevated government instability will likely divert attention from foreign policy issues to domestic concerns in the near term.

Macron has shaped an increasingly hawkish French Ukraine policy in recent months, which an RN victory would have almost certainly threatened to undermine. According to the Kiel Institute for World Economy, Paris provided around EUR 2.69 bn (USD 2.91 bn) in military aid for Kyiv from 24 January 2022 to 30 April 2024. Nevertheless, one contender vying to become France’s next prime minister, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the left-wing France Unbowed (LFI) party, seemingly expressed sympathy in March 2014 for Russia’s actions to annex Crimea that year. As such, past comments will possibly undermine Kyiv’s confidence in Paris’ commitment to assisting Ukraine should Mélenchon assume the role of prime minister in the immediate term. Irrespective of the next prime minister, a hung parliament is likely to distract Macron significantly over the next year, which will in turn possibly undermine French budget commitments to Ukraine. (Source: Sibylline)

11 Jul 24. Sergey Mironov on the prospect of a global war between Russia and NATO. A war between Russia and NATO can be avoided only if Europeans have a self-preservation instinct and refuse to follow the suicidal course of the United States towards escalation, said the leader of «A Just Russia – Patriots – For Truth» party, Sergey Mironov, commenting on the NATO summit and the statements of a number of Western politicians.

“The gathering in Washington did not bring any surprises: The West is not going to abandon the policy of weakening and destroying Russia, which is directly called a “threat to democracy,” that is, Western hegemony. The plan is the same: to fight with us with the hands of Ukrainians and simultaneously prepare their forces for war against us in Europe.

Therefore, peace in Ukraine is not possible in such a situation – the West will not give us a break and will not negotiate with us until we force it to do so. This means, we will have to carry out a special military operation to the bitter end.

It’s important to say, that a possible military conflict between NATO and Russia will not be the same as the conflict in Ukraine. For the United States, it will be a matter of maintaining its dominance, for Russia it will be a matter of survival. This is why we will take protective measures in full accordance with our nuclear doctrine.

For the Europeans, this will mean guaranteed destruction. No “drone walls”, armored corps, or even long-range American missiles will save them – they risk repeating the fate of the Ukrainian army, but at a much faster pacer. It will be possible to avoid a global war only if the Europeans have an instinct for self-preservation and refuse to follow the suicidal course of the United States towards further escalation.”

(Source: mironov-online.ru)

11 Jul 24. Australia joins Drone Coalition to support Ukraine.

Australia has officially joined a “Drone Coalition” in defence of Ukraine, with coalition plans to deliver more than 1m first-person view drones to the war-torn country. Members of the Drone Coalition include Estonia, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, New Zealand, Poland, Latvia and now, Australia, according to statement released by the Australian government on 11 July.

The collection of countries was formally established on 14 February this year in an initiative proposed by Latvia and coordinated with the United Kingdom.

“We, members of the Drone Coalition have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) which provides a framework outlining the coalition’s core activities, management structure procurement mechanisms,” according to a joint statement.

“With this MOU we establish the UK-led Drone Coalition Common Fund enabling joint procurement for rapid and efficient drone deliveries.

“So far, the Netherlands, the UK, Latvia, New Zealand, and Sweden have pledged in total over €45 m to the Common Fund, with additional contributions anticipated.

“The Drone Coalition is planning to deliver 1 m FPV drones to Ukraine. At the same time coalition members are working to provide other type of drones like reconnaissance, strike drones, AI upgraded drones as well as counter-drone capabilities.

“Through the Drone Coalition we will be seeking joint procurement initiatives to utilise and expand national industrial capacities.

“We, nations of the Drone Coalition, encourage additional funding to be made available to achieve the coalition’s aims. The Drone Coalition remains open for other allies and partners to join.”

In addition, the group has announced plans to provide a wide spectrum of drones for use in Ukraine to facilitate Ukraine’s military success.

“We, nations of the Drone Coalition, recognise the importance of the support for the Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s aggression,” the joint statement said.

“The Drone Coalition is focused on providing Ukraine with drones and components produced by the industry of UDCG countries, as well as finding ways to support Ukrainian manufacturers to ensure that the Ukrainian Defence Forces are equipped with the most efficient capabilities.

“Members of the Drone Coalition have already provided significant support to Ukraine by delivering drones to Ukraine. Latvia is providing drone testing training range for industry and military to continuously improve drone technology. The Drone Coalition has launched an industry competition for first-person view (FPV) drones, of which 265 bids were received. These bids are currently being evaluated and the first contracts are expected to be signed in August.” (Source: Defence Connect)

11 Jul 24. Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine. Today, following President Biden’s meeting with President Zelenskyy, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration’s sixty-first tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package, which has an estimated value of $225 m, will provide Ukraine additional capabilities to meet its most urgent needs, including: air defense systems and interceptors; munitions for rocket systems and artillery; and anti-tank weapons.

As President Biden announced earlier this week, the United States is taking joint action with Germany, Romania, the Netherlands, and Italy to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses and provide five strategic air defense systems, including Patriot batteries and SAMP/T systems, that will help protect Ukrainian cities, civilians, and soldiers. The United States and our Allies and partners remain committed to providing Ukraine with additional air defense capabilities to defend itself against Russia’s continued aggression.

The capabilities in this announcement include:

One Patriot battery;
Munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) equipment and missiles;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
Small arms ammunition;
Demolitions munitions; and
Spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.

The United States will continue to work together with some 50 Allies and partners to ensure Ukraine’s brave defenders receive the critical capabilities needed to fight Russian aggression. (Source: U.S. DoD)

11 Jul 24. NATO Faces Hybrid Attacks. NATO member states are experiencing a surge in hybrid attacks attributed to Russian operations aimed at undermining the alliance’s support for Ukraine. These attacks, which include arson, vandalism, surveillance, and even failed bomb plots, have prompted discussions about invoking NATO’s Article 5 on mutual defense.

Estonia’s defense minister emphasized the need for a measured response to these hybrid operations to avoid falling into a trap set by Russia. He highlighted that these attacks are designed to distract NATO countries from their primary objective of supporting Ukraine. Germany has been particularly targeted, with its intelligence community warning of the country becoming a battleground due to its historical security lapses and pro-Russian sympathizers.

For over six months, Russia has engaged in a series of sabotage operations across NATO member states, targeting weapons supply lines intended for Ukraine and key decision-makers. Security officials across Europe report an escalation in these activities, with Russian agents increasingly hiring local amateurs to carry out high-risk, deniable crimes.

The hybrid attacks are varied, ranging from cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns to physical sabotage and acts of violence. Estonia’s Hanno Pevkur described the vandalism of a minister’s car and attacks on journalists as part of Russia’s broader strategy to destabilize Europe.

In response to the growing threat, NATO has heightened security measures, particularly at U.S. military bases in Europe. Polish authorities, for example, have detained 18 individuals suspected of collaborating with Russian or Belarusian intelligence. Similar arrests have occurred in Germany, Austria, Denmark, and Estonia.

One high-profile case involved a Ukrainian named Maxim L., who was sentenced to six years in prison for working with a Russian handler. Initially paid to spray anti-war graffiti, Maxim’s tasks soon escalated to more serious activities. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

11 Jul 24. FSB Claims Ukrainian Plot to Destroy Aircraft Carrier. The Federal Security Service (FSB) of Russia announced it had thwarted an alleged attempt by Ukrainian intelligence to sabotage the Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia’s sole aircraft carrier. According to the FSB, a Ukrainian intelligence officer, identified as “Oleg,” contacted a Russian citizen working on the ship, offering substantial rewards for committing an attack on the vessel. The FSB claims the operation was supervised by Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence agency. The Admiral Kuznetsov, launched in 1985, has been out of service since 2018 due to extensive repairs following a crane collapse. Russian state media suggested in July 2023 that the vessel might reenter service by the end of the year. Meanwhile, intense battles continue on the east bank of the Dnipro River in Ukraine’s Kherson region. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces are fighting fiercely for control of the delta islands. Ukrainian Special Operations Forces reported a significant success, claiming the destruction of 15 Russian boats in a nighttime operation. Utilizing drones equipped with drop systems, Ukrainian forces targeted and eliminated the enemy boats, thereby reducing Russian military mobility in the area. Fighting has intensified across various frontlines in Ukraine. Russian forces have made advances southeast of Chasiv Yar, near Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City, while Ukrainian troops have progressed north of Kharkiv City. In Moscow, the FSB reported preventing an assassination attempt on high-ranking Defense Ministry officials, and another foiled Ukrainian plot to recruit a Russian pilot to hijack a Tu-22M3 strategic bomber. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

11 Jul 24. Ukraine Decides Not to Accept Gripen Jets From Sweden: What Is the Reason?

Sweden is ready to supply the JAS 39 Gripen aircraft, although Ukraine has decided to focus primarily on F-16 ones

The fact that the transfer of the Swedish Gripen fighter jets was put on hold for the sake of F-16 aircraft became known at the end of May 2024. At the time, Swedish Minister for Defense Pål Jonson said that this was a coalition decision and was related to prioritizing American aircraft in order to concentrate efforts and resources.

But now Swedish Minister for Foreign Affairs Tobias Billström has said that the decision to stop work on Gripen aircraft came from Ukraine.

“It has nothing to do with the decision by the Swedish government. This decision was brought about because Ukraine reached the conclusion that to bring on board two air fighter systems at the same time, both F- 16 and Gripens, were to be too much.”, he said in an interview with the Voice of America.

According to Billström, Sweden is open to continue to work in this direction and that “this is a matter for Ukraine, not the Swedish government.”

It is important to note that Tobias Billström said that this decision is really logical and is related to two factors. First, the there are more F-16 jets in terms of the number available for transfer as well as in terms of donor countries.

The second aspect is the difficulty of commissioning fighters. The F-16 example shows how complicated and time-consuming this process can be.

“It’s not just a question about receiving airplanes and training pilots. These are complicated systems and to have two of them at the same time being implemented was too much”, – Tobias Billström noted.

It should be noted that while several NATO members train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16, training on the Gripen would be the responsibility of Sweden, and possibly the Czech Republic, which, along with Hungary, is the only foreign operator of these aircraft in NATO.

“But that is not to say that Sweden is not open to continue with Gripens air fighters if and when F-16 programs have been concluded”, Tobias Billström summarizes.

But another type of fighter jet promised to Ukraine also should be mentioned. This is French Mirage 2000 aircraft. French President Emmanuel Macron promised to transfer these aircraft as well as train Ukrainian pilots and technicians by the end of 2024.

Thus, the development and commissioning of the F-16 and Mirage 2000 will be carried out in parallel. And this really allows us to look at the Gripen supply from a different angle.

Especially, when Ukraine’s real current need for F-16s is 128 jets. The only chance to get closer to this figure is to put several types of multifunctional fighters into service, or to get the United States to reconsider its refusal to donate F-16s. (Source: News Now/https://en.defence-ua.com/)

11 Jul 24. Ukraine urges NATO to lift restrictions on targeting Russia.

Ukraine on Thursday urged NATO allies to lift restrictions on its use of long-range weapons against targets in Russia, saying that would be “game-changer” in its war with Moscow, while China slammed NATO criticism of its support for Russia as biased and malicious.

NATO members issued a declaration in support of Ukraine at a summit in Washington on Wednesday, promising additional aid and pledging to back its “irreversible path” to NATO membership.

“At this summit we are turning a corner and putting in place the foundations for Ukraine to prevail,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told a news conference after a three-day meeting in Washington of the 32 NATO states.

“Today, we send a strong message of unity and resolve to Moscow that violence and intimidation do not pay, and that Ukraine can count on NATO now for the long haul.”

Near the end of the summit on Thursday, U.S. President Joe Biden mistakenly referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as “President Putin,” before correcting himself, in a mix up likely to add fuel to calls for him to quit the 2024 presidential race.

In a press conference shortly after, Biden made another verbal slip, referring to Vice President Kamala Harris as “Vice President Trump.”

Zelenskiy earlier called on allies to preserve their unified support of Ukraine and said new aid had to be delivered quickly.

“If we want to win, if we want to prevail, to save our country and to defend it, we need to lift all the limitations,” he said.

Zelenskiy’s cabinet chief Andryi Yermak told a public forum Russia had no restrictions on its use of weapons and it would be “a real game-changer” if Ukraine’s allies could lift all limits on the use of those they supply to Ukraine.

NATO members have taken different approaches to how Ukraine can use weapons they donate. Some have made clear Kyiv can use them to strike targets deep inside Russia while the United States has taken a narrower approach, allowing its weapons to be used only just inside Russia’s border against targets supporting Russian military operations in Ukraine.

Biden told the press conference the United States had allowed Zelenskiy to use American weapons in a limited way within Russia’s borders.

“If he had the ability to strike Moscow, strike the Kremlin, would that make sense? It wouldn’t,” he added.

Biden said he and U.S. military and intelligence officials were making decisions on “a day-to-day basis on how far they should go in. That’s a logical thing to do.”

The United States and its allies have used this week’s summit to try to project unity in the face of what they see as a rising threat to Europe from Russia and China.

However, NATO member Hungary said ahead of a meeting of NATO members with partners from the so-called Indo-Pacific Four – Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea – that it does not want NATO to become an “anti-China” bloc, and will not support it doing so.

Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto also told Hungarian state television that Ukraine’s admission to the military alliance would weaken unity in the group.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban irked other NATO members with surprise visits to Kyiv, Moscow and Beijing in the past two weeks on a self-styled “peace mission”. He and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump will meet on Thursday at the latter’s Florida home, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.

Orban’s meeting in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin in particular angered some fellow NATO allies, who said the trip handed legitimacy to Putin’s claims to Ukrainian territory seized since Russia’s 2022 invasion.

Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told a public forum he would not speculate on whether Orban’s trip to Moscow was coordinated with Trump, Biden’s rival in the November U.S. election, but said the Ukrainians had grave misgivings about any effort to negotiate a peace deal without them.

“So whatever adventurism is being undertaken without Ukraine’s consent or support is not something that’s consistent with our policy, the foreign policy of the United States,” he said.

ANGRY WORDS FROM CHINA

Wednesday’s NATO declaration included sharp words about China, calling it “a decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and said Beijing continues to pose systemic challenges to Europe and to security.

China’s Foreign Ministry said the declaration was biased and “sowing discord” and its mission to the European Union described it as being “full of Cold War mentality and belligerent rhetoric, and China-related content full of provocations, lies, incitement and smears.”

At the news conference, Stoltenberg recalled language in the declaration by saying that “China cannot continue to fuel the largest military conflict in Europe without this impacting Beijing’s interests and reputation.”

China has repeatedly lashed out at NATO criticisms and has warned against its expansion into the Indo-Pacific.

Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Australia have forged stronger ties with NATO amid rising concerns over China’s pressure on rival claimants in disputed waters in the region and on democratic Taiwan, the global hub of cutting-edge chip production, which Beijing claims as its own.

PROJECTING UNITY

Fears that the U.S. presidential election could yield a sharp change in Washington’s support for Ukraine and NATO have loomed over the Washington meetings.

On Wednesday, Trump, who has questioned the value of NATO in the past and pressed congressional Republicans to stall military aid for Ukraine before later reversing course, claimed Ukraine would not have been attacked had he been president. He cited his “good relationship with President Putin.”

Biden’s uneven performance in a June 27 debate against Trump and low public approval ratings have raised fresh doubts about his mental fitness to stand again, with 13 Democratic members of Congress and one Democratic senator calling for him to step aside.

Zelenskiy met both Republican and Democratic lawmakers in Washington on Wednesday. He is keen to cement ties with U.S. lawmakers on both sides of the political aisle in the event that Trump is reelected.

A NATO declaration said the allies would provide at least 40 bn euros ($43 bn) in military aid to Ukraine within the next year, although they stopped short of the multi-year commitment Stoltenberg had sought. (Source: Reuters)

11 Jul 24. International coalition solidifies support for Ukraine with drone deliveries. A new era of military collaboration as 12 nations join forces to supply drones to Ukraine

In a show of international solidarity, the Defense Ministers from 12 nations have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to formalise the Drone Coalition, an alliance designed to enhance Ukraine’s military through the provision and joint procurement of drones.

This agreement, sealed during the Nato Summit in Washington DC on July 10 2024, emphasises a collective effort to support Ukraine amidst its protracted conflict with Russia.

The Drone Coalition, spearheaded by the UK and Latvia, represents a coordinated initiative to deliver one m First Person View (FPV) drones to Ukraine. Beyond FPV drones, the coalition also commits to supplying an array of reconnaissance, strike, and AI-enhanced drones alongside counter-drone technologies.

The conflict over the past two years has spurred advances in counter-drone technologies. Ukraine and Russia have both employed countermeasures, emphasising the need for cost-effective solutions to counter drones. Ukraine’s use of domestically produced Magura V5 drones to neutralise Russian naval assets underlines the impact of drone technologies in asymmetric warfare. The nature of drone threats necessitates investment in counter-drone technologies to mitigate risks.

GlobalData’s Thematic Intelligence on Drones in Aerospace and Defense highlights that Ukraine’s drone fleet has destroyed crucial Russian supply trucks, delayed the Russian military’s advances, and exposed the Russian army’s vulnerabilities.

“Drones have become an important part of modern warfare and are of great importance for Ukraine to be able to stop Russia’s attacks, primarily on the ground, and to gather information on the battlefield,” stated Sweden’s Defence Minister Pål Jonson, whose country has joined the coalition, contributing prior financial support of €10m ($10.9m) for drone procurement.

Joint procurement

A notable aspect of the coalition’s framework is the establishment of the UK-led Drone Coalition Common Fund, facilitating joint procurement processes. With initial pledges surpassing €45m from coalition members, including the Netherlands, the UK, Latvia, New Zealand, and Sweden, this fund is poised to expedite the delivery of drone technologies to Ukraine’s frontlines.

The UK has initiated an industry competition to develop FPV drones, receiving 265 bids. These proposals are currently under evaluation, with the first contracts anticipated by August. Additionally, Latvia’s provision of a drone testing and training range underlines the coalition’s commitment to continuous technological advancements.

A broadening alliance

While the current coalition includes key Nato members and close allies such as Australia, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, and Poland, the door remains open for other nations to join this initiative.

The coalition’s inclusive stance highlights a vision for expanding and leveraging global industrial capacities to meet the evolving demands of Ukraine’s defence landscape.

Enhancing Ukrainian capabilities

The coalition’s efforts are not merely confined to drone deliveries. Its concerted focus is on supporting Ukrainian manufacturers and ensuring the sustained efficiency of their drone capabilities. Training programmes and technological support are components of this initiative, enhancing the operational readiness of Ukrainian drone pilots.

Ukraine has ramped up its drone production in response to Russian attacks on its infrastructure and military targets. Despite Russia’s advantage in producing cruise and ballistic missiles, Ukraine has shown strength in manufacturing FPV drones, with reports indicating production reached 200,000 units from January to February 2024.

The formation of the Drone Coalition marks a milestone in international defence cooperation. It reflects a shared recognition of the role that unmanned systems play in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. By pooling resources and funding, coalition members reinforce Ukraine’s defence capabilities. (Source: airforce-technology.com)

12 Jul 24. Netherlands steps up Ukraine’s air power with F-16 armament.

The new funding underlines Nato unity amid Russian aggression. In a move to reinforce Ukraine’s defensive capabilities against ongoing Russian aggression, the Netherlands has announced an additional €300m funding for procuring ammunition for F-16 fighter jets.

This comes atop a prior €150m allocation, highlighting Nato’s commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty.

In an address during the Nato summit in Washington, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans unveiled an increase in financial support for Ukraine, emphasising the need for armament. The new funds will facilitate the purchase of ammunition directly from the defence industry, ensuring that the soon-to-be-delivered F-16s to Ukraine are operational and fully equipped for combat.

“The Ukrainians should not only be able to fly the F-16s. They should also be able to deploy the aircraft,” Minister Brekelmans asserted. He stressed the importance of this support in countering Russian offensives, stating, “Putin’s aggression knows no bounds; our support must, therefore, continue at full speed. By purchasing this extra F-16 ammunition, we also want to send the message to Moscow that Nato allies will continue to support Ukraine unabated. Russia must not win this war; this is also in the interest of our security.”

In the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Dutch remain dedicated to members of international institutions such as NATO and the EU, and they have also shown consistent support for the people of Ukraine, GlobalData’s “The Netherlands Defense Market 2024-2029” report highlights.

Nato allies tighten ranks with Air Force capability coalition

The Netherlands’ announcement is a development in the broader Nato strategy, showcasing the alliance’s unified front. Alongside Denmark and the United States, the Netherlands leads the Air Force Capability Coalition (AFCC), an initiative to bolster air defence capabilities among Nato allies and partners.

As part of this coalition, the Netherlands is making 18 F-16s available for the European F-16 training centre in Romania and is set to transfer 24 of its F-16s to Ukraine. This marks an enhancement of Ukraine’s aerial combat readiness, providing an edge in its defence strategy.

Norway will send six surplus F-16 aircraft to Ukraine by the end of 2024, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre announced on July 10, 2024. This contribution is part of the AFCC led by Denmark, the Netherlands, and the US. Norway’s decision follows the phasing out of its F-16 fleet in favour of newer F-35s.

Broader implications for regional security

The AFCC’s impending transfer of F-16s to Ukraine is shrouded in confidentiality. This reflects concerns over operational security and aligns with explicit requests from Ukrainian authorities. This cautious approach emphasises the delicate balance between transparency and tactical advantage in the ongoing conflict.

Russia is intensifying airstrikes on Ukrainian airfields, specifically targeting locations expected to house F-16 fighter jets arriving from the Netherlands this month.

While the specifics of the delivery timeline remain undisclosed, the enhanced support package is a clear signal of Nato’s commitment to Ukraine. The ammunition supply is expected to amplify Ukrainian forces’ effectiveness in repelling Russian advances and stabilising contested regions.

Message to Moscow

This latest financial commitment by the Netherlands reinforces Ukraine’s military capacity and reminds Moscow of Nato’s support for its Eastern European ally. By ensuring that Ukrainian forces are well-armed and combat-ready, Nato aims to deter further Russian aggression and maintain regional stability.

The Netherlands’ increased investment in F-16 ammunition for Ukraine reinforces Nato’s defence posture. As the conflict continues, such measures are crucial in sustaining Ukraine and securing the broader geopolitical landscape against aggression. (Source: airforce-technology.com)

11 Jul 24. Ukraine to receive Denmark-funded Bohdana 155mm artillery soon. The Bohdana platform has been developed by Ukraine’s industry for its armed forces, which has been the beneficiary of hundreds of artillery platforms from Western allies.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has announced that the provision of 18 Bohdana artillery platforms is expected to be completed “in the coming months”, with the systems having been procured via a financing package provided by Denmark.

The Bohdana 2S22 is a 155mm wheeled self-propelled howitzer (SPH) developed by Ukrainian industry for use by the country’s armed forces. The system comprises a 155mm main gun, reportedly with a range of 40-50km, mounted on a 8×8 armoured truck.

Small numbers are understood to have been delivered and operational. The latest batch has been funded by Denmark, the first Nato country to directly finance Ukrainian arms and ammunition production, according to Ukraine’s MoD.

In an 11 July social media post, the Ukrainian MoD lauded the financial assistance provided by Denmark, citing its “staunch support” as the Ukraine-War war continues through its third year.

Denmark has been a consistent provider of equipment and financing to Ukraine in quantities that bely its size relative to other Nato member states.

According to analysis, topline equipment provision includes seven Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks and 19 Caesar 155mm SPH, as well as being part of a trilateral agreement with Germany and the Netherlands to provide 109 Leopard 1A5 tanks to Ukraine.

Logistics challenges from artillery platform provision

The strategic importance of artillery on the modern battlefield is demonstrated on a daily basis in Ukraine, with the ability to conduct medium-range indirect fires of use in both offensive and defensive operations.

Recent commitments to Ukraine include a further 10 AS90 155mm SPHs from the UK, as well as ongoing development and delivery of the RCH 155 SPH.

However; logistical and training challenges will persist through Ukraine’s military, which has brought into its order of battle no less then 10 different Western- or allied-provided artillery types.

The development of a greater industrial capability, along with associated overseas financing where necessary, will bring about a greater commonality in Ukraine’s military, as well as improving sustainment practices. (Source: army-technology.com)

12 Jul 24. France’s OSKAR Loitering Munition Heads to Ukraine.

Delair and KNDS France will provide 100 OSKAR (Opportunity Strike Kinetics Aircraft Ruggedised) loitering munitions to Ukraine in the third quarter of 2024, the companies announced at the Eurosatory 2024 defence exhibition.

The OSKAR is based on Delair’s UX11 flying-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), equipped with a 2.3 kg high-explosive fragmentation warhead developed by KNDS France (previously Nexter Arrowtech). Developed underthe codename ‘Dard’ (Stinger), the OSKAR was one of two solutions selected for the French DGA (Direction Générale de l’Armement) project Colibri in March 2023. Project Colibri aimed at rapidly developing a cost-effective loitering munition, with a maximum range of 8 km and fitted with an anti-personnel warhead.

In March 2024 French Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu announced that the DGA would purchase 2,000 loitering munitions from various manufacturers, with 100 to be sent to Ukraine. Stéphane Douce, chief marketing officer for Delair, told Janes that the OSKAR had already been field tested in Ukraine, confirming its ability to operate in global navigation satellite services (GNSS)-denied environments.

With a range of 3 hours, between 80 and 120km, this loitering ammunition will carry a 3kg explosively-formed penetrator charge capable of dealing with armoured targets while foiling their active protection systems. In partnership with EOS Technologie and TRAAK, the first demonstrations with an inert charge will take place in early 2025.

This system which could be reusable will also enable it to carry out intelligence missions using an electro-optical system which is able to detect a vehicle at 15 km by day and 3 km by night. It will have navigation capabilities in a contested environment (jamming) thanks to its secured radio link at up to 80km provided by KNDS France Robotics. LARINAE is proposed with two different platforms: a vertical take-off and landing system (VTOL) and a high-speed UAV (VELOCE). Both are equipped with a high-performance solution for arming and disarming the warhead, allowing the operator to recover them easily and safely. (Source: UAS VISION/KNDS; Janes)

10 Jul 24. Joint Statement by Defence Ministers of the Drone Coalition. Defence Secretary John Healey joined allies and partners in signing a document establishing a framework for the international capability coalition to supply drones for Ukraine.

We, nations of the Drone Coalition, recognize the importance of the support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s aggression. To facilitate Ukraine’s military success, we have established the Drone Coalition. Drones are indispensable and play a crucial role on the battlefield. Ukraine has a high demand for a wide spectrum and capacity of drones.

The Drone Coalition is focused on providing Ukraine with drones and components produced by the industry of Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) countries, as well as finding ways to support Ukrainian manufacturers to ensure that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are equipped with the most efficient capabilities.

Members of the Drone Coalition have already provided significant support to Ukraine by delivering drones. Latvia is providing a drone testing training range for industry and military to continuously improve drone technology. The UK has launched an industry competition on behalf of Drone Coalition to develop and procure First Person View (FPV) drones, of which 265 bids were received. These bids are currently being evaluated and the first contracts are expected to be signed in August.

Today on July 10, we, members of the Drone Coalition have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) which provides a framework outlining the Coalition’s core activities, management structure procurement mechanisms. With this MoU we establish the UK-led Drone Coalition Common Fund enabling joint procurement for rapid and efficient drone deliveries. So far, the Netherlands, the UK, Latvia, New Zealand, and Sweden have pledged in total over €45M to the Common Fund, with additional contributions anticipated.

The Drone Coalition is planning to deliver 1 m FPV drones to Ukraine. At the same time, coalition members are working to provide other type of drones like reconnaissance, strike drones, AI upgraded drones, as well as counter-drone capabilities. Through the Drone Coalition we will be seeking joint procurement initiatives to utilise and expand national industrial capacities. We, nations of the Drone coalition, encourage additional funding to be made available to achieve the coalition’s aims. The Drone Coalition remains open for other Allies and partners to join. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

10 Jul 24. F-16s to be ‘flying in the skies of Ukraine this summer,’ US says. More than two years into the full-scale war with Russia, Ukraine is closer than ever to its coveted F-16 jets.

In a statement Wednesday, American, Danish and Dutch leaders said the “transfer process” for the fourth-generation fighters is “underway.”

“Those jets will be flying in the skies of Ukraine this summer to make sure that Ukraine can continue to effectively defend itself from the Russian aggression,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at a NATO event in Washington.

However, Justin Bronk, an air power analyst at the London-based Royal United Services Institute think tank, cautioned the statement may simply suggest a change of ownership rather than a state of combat readiness. The Ukrainian Air Forces may now go from training on jets held and operated by the Netherlands and Denmark to having custody of some.

“I highly doubt they would make a public statement about it” if the F-16s were immediately moving onto Ukrainian airfields, Bronk said.

The reason for that could be safety. In the last week, Bronk noted, Russia has targeted four Ukrainian airfields with ballistic missiles — guided by aerial drones that Ukrainian forces apparently lacked the interceptors to take down. It’s unclear how many actual planes, as opposed to decoys, Kyiv lost.

But the attacks are a reminder of a much larger challenge for Ukraine, Bronk said: Without enough air defense, its military can’t use F-16s anywhere near their full potential.

To wit, U.S. President Joe Biden opened the NATO summit on Tuesday by announcing an agreement with four other countries to send Ukraine more air defense batteries.

The U.S., the Netherlands and Denmark lead a group of countries that helps provide Ukraine with air power. The Danish and Dutch governments first agreed to send Ukraine the jets last year, and other countries, including Norway and Belgium, have since joined. The number thus far pledged to Ukraine is about 65.

Norwegian officials on Wednesday clarified that Oslo’s contribution would cover six F-16s. “We plan to start delivering the aircraft in the course of 2024,” Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said in a statement.

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said earlier this year his country would donate 30 planes. The Netherlands has promised 24, according to Reuters.

It was at last year’s NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, where countries initially agreed to start training Ukrainian pilots to fly the fighters. One of the most difficult challenges has been a language barrier, since the jargon used by pilots and crews is highly technical and there’s no time to clarify a word mid-flight.

According to the Pentagon, there are just over 12 Ukrainian pilots training to fly the jets between Denmark and the U.S. right now. While a handful graduated from the course in late May, the number in the pipeline is too small, some Ukrainian officials argue.

“If we’re expected to have up to 20 machines by the end of the year, we need pilots,” Igor Zhovkva, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said in an interview. “We are asking now [from] all of our partners for two things: to increase the number of places for training, because currently it is not enough, and secondly to optimize the period of training” — essentially speed it up.

One of the main issues with increasing that capacity is the long queue of countries already waiting for the U.S. Air Force to train their pilots. Yehor Cherniev, who leads Ukraine’s parliamentary delegation to NATO, told Defense News that he and other lawmakers asked Congress for a list of those nations so Ukraine can negotiate with them to swap spots.

American lawmakers didn’t agree to do so, he said.

The F-16s have long been a priority for Ukraine. Receiving them may help with morale and the country’s actual defense.

In the medium term, they could also pair well with two airborne surveillance planes Sweden pledged for Ukraine at the start of the summer. These can help the Ukrainian Air Forces with targeting as well as command-and-control, Swedish Defence Minister Pål Jonson said in an interview.

“That’s the difference between a third-generation fighter, which the Ukrainians are operating, and the fourth-generation fighter,” he said.

For his part, Bronk questions how Ukraine will train on and then operate these surveillance planes. They will need experienced Ukrainian crews and then must pair them with pilots who have expertise on the F-16 before there is a positive effect for the embattled country, Bronk said.

“Where are they going to fly from? Who’s going to maintain them? And are they going to fly and operate inside Ukraine, or are they going to fly around the borders?” he added. (Source: Defense News)

09 Jul 24. The United States and its allies will deliver to Ukraine five additional air defense systems, including Patriot missile batteries and Patriot components, the leaders of those countries said in a joint statement during the NATO summit.

They added that in the coming months, they intend to provide Ukraine with dozens of tactical air defense systems.

Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT

Washington, Ukraine’s biggest supporter, has provided more than $50 bn in military aid since 2022. But U.S. military aid was delayed in Congress for months over the winter, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said a shortage of weapons was giving Russia the upper hand.

After battle lines remained largely frozen since early in the conflict, Moscow made some advances in eastern Ukraine in recent months. Zelenskiy has urged Western governments to increase and speed up military aid to Kyiv’s forces.

U.S. legislation was approved in April that provided $61 bn in funding to Ukraine. Zelenskiy said last week he wanted to double Ukraine’s air defense capacity over the summer.

KEY QUOTE

President Joe Biden made the announcement in remarks at the NATO summit. A joint statement was later issued by the leaders of the U.S., the Netherlands, Romania, Italy, Germany and Ukraine.

“We are providing Ukraine with additional strategic air defense systems, including additional Patriot batteries donated by the United States, Germany, and Romania; Patriot components donated by the Netherlands and other partners to enable the operation of an additional Patriot battery; and an additional SAMP-T system donated by Italy,” the joint statement said.

CONTEXT

Ukraine has repeatedly called on partners to provide more help with air defense as it faces attacks from Russia on cities and energy infrastructure.

Ukraine said Russia blasted the main children’s hospital in Kyiv with a missile on Monday and rained missiles down on other cities across Ukraine, killing at least 41 civilians in the deadliest wave of air strikes for months.

Moscow has denied targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure, although its attacks have killed thousands of civilians since it launched its invasion. (Source: Google/Reuters)

09 Jul 24. Poland, Ukraine move to link arms industries, coordinate air defenses. With the war in Ukraine expected to dominate the agenda of the NATO summit that begins in Washington today, the Kyiv government signed a security cooperation agreement with Poland, one of its staunchest allies.

The deal, signed in Warsaw on July 8 by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, foresees Polish support for integrating the Ukrainian defense industry with Western partners, and it calls for air-defense cooperation between the two nations in the event of an attack.

In a statement released by his office, Tusk said his country will push allies during the summit to accelerate the process of admitting Ukraine to NATO and make the alliance’s aid to Kyiv even more efficient.

“Also in Washington, Poland has been very active in promoting Ukraine’s accession to NATO,” Zelenskyy said at a press conference here following the ceremonial signing of the security pact.

The bilateral accord foresees Poland supporting the integration of Ukraine’s defense industry “into NATO and EU defense and security frameworks,” according to the agreement text. The partners also declared that they will foster more industrial cooperation between Polish and Ukrainian industry players.

“The participants will collaborate to create an environment conducive to Polish defense companies locating production also in Ukraine,” according to the agreement. “Additionally, they intend to include Ukrainian-based enterprises in the production chains of military equipment.”

Another key part of the document refers to the need for air-defense cooperation between Poland and Ukraine amid Russia’s ongoing invasion. In March 2024, a Russian missile briefly violated Poland’s airspace during an intense missile attack on Ukraine. The incident pushed the Polish Air Force to scramble its F-16 fighter jets.

“The participants agree on the need to continue their bilateral dialogue and dialogues with other partners, aimed at examining rationale and feasibility of possible intercepting in Ukraine’s airspace missiles and UAVs fired in the direction of territory of Poland,” according to the agreement, using shorthand for unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones. (Source: Defense News)

10 Jul 24. North Korean Military Trainers Visit Russia Following Military Cooperation Pact.

A delegation of North Korean military trainers, led by Kim Geum Chol, the president of the prestigious Kim Il Sung Military University in Pyongyang, has embarked on a trip to Russia. This visit marks the first military exchange between the two countries since the signing of a comprehensive military cooperation treaty last month. The delegation’s departure was reported by North Korean state media on July 9, signaling a new phase in the military relationship between North Korea and Russia.

The recent collaboration follows Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in mid-June, where he met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The two leaders engaged in extended talks before signing a partnership agreement that pledged mutual military and other forms of aid if either nation were attacked.

Pyongyang has been a supplier of weapons to Moscow, particularly for use in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The visit by North Korean military trainers is a concrete step in the military partnership, reflecting the commitments made in the recent treaty. The state media announcement did not provide further details about the visit’s agenda or duration.

The growing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea has raised concerns internationally. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol described the alliance as a “distinct threat and a grave challenge to the peace and security on the Korean peninsula and in Europe.” This sentiment is shared by various international observers who view the alliance as a destabilizing factor in regional and global security.

In parallel developments, discussions about international military support continue elsewhere. France is considering sending military trainers to Ukraine, as revealed by Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, who has signed documents to facilitate the arrival of the first French instructors. French President Emmanuel Macron has expressed a desire to form a coalition of countries to support Ukraine through military training, though U.S. President Joe Biden reportedly opposes this proposal. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

09 Jul 24. DOD Will Continue to Lead Support of Ukraine Through Contact Group. While NATO plans to implement more coordinated efforts to support Ukraine, the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group will continue its own efforts to orchestrate worldwide support to the nation.

This week, representatives of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are holding a summit in Washington, coinciding with the 75th anniversary of the alliance. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and how best to provide support to Ukraine will dominate many discussions at the summit.

Included in those discussions will be a new NATO effort, announced last month in Brussels, regarding a more coordinated approach to provide support to Ukraine.

Under that plan, which NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said would be launched this month at the summit, there will be a new NATO command located in Germany, with additional logistical nodes in the eastern part of Europe. Nearly 700 personnel are expected to be involved.

The NATO plan involves, among other things, training of Ukrainian armed forces at facilities in NATO allied nations, supporting Ukraine through the planning and coordination of donations, managing the transfer and repair of equipment, and providing support to the long-term development of Ukraine’s armed forces.

While that new NATO-led effort will surely bolster Ukraine’s efforts to eject Russia from Ukrainian sovereign territory, the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group will continue to assist as well.

“DOD will continue to lead and support Ukraine’s work to strengthen and modernize its forces for the long haul,” Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said during a briefing today. “There some 50 countries that are part of the UDCG, which extends far beyond our 32 valued NATO allies. So, we certainly will continue to welcome NATO’s involvement. They play an important role in the UDCG’s capability coalitions and working to advance interoperability as Ukraine builds its forces.”

The UDCG, a coalition of about 50 nations that meets monthly to discuss Ukraine’s security needs, first met in April 2022 through the efforts of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III.

During last month’s meeting of the UDCG, which took place June 13 in Brussels, Austin explained the group’s continued importance.

“The outcome of the war in Ukraine will help set the trajectory for global security for decades to come,” Austin said. “This contact group will continue to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty and all of our security. So, we will continue to stand up to Putin’s aggression and atrocities. We will continue to find new options to get Ukraine the air defenses that it needs to defend its skies and we will continue to move heaven and Earth to get Ukraine what it needs to live in freedom.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

10 Jul 24. Labour to allow Ukraine to use UK weapons to strike Russia. The UK’s new Labour government will continue to allow Ukraine to use British-supplied weapons to strike targets within Russia, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has signalled. He stressed that arms donated by Britain must be “used in accordance with international humanitarian law” and for “defensive purposes”, but added: “It is for Ukraine to decide how to deploy it for those defensive purposes.” Starmer’s comments closely echoed former prime minister Rishi Sunak’s position on the use of UK weapons supplied to Kyiv. The US has been more explicit in blocking the use of arms it gives to Ukraine against targets deep inside Russia, although in May President Joe Biden authorised limited cross-border strikes. (Source: FT.com)

09 Jul 24. Germany to help procure drones for Ukraine, Pistorius says. Germany will announce a new effort to facilitate joint procurement of its drones on behalf of Ukraine, along with other measures to aid Kyiv in its defense against Russia’s invasion, the German Defense Minister said.

Speaking in Alaska at the onset of NATO’s large-scale Arctic Defender drills, Boris Pistorius announced that Germany would propose a joint procurement scheme at the alliance’s summit this week in Washington, D.C.

The summit, marking the alliance’s 75-year anniversary, is expected be dominated by talk about countering the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine.

The German defense minister said he expected the summit to result in the formal announcement of a command in the German city of Wiesbaden to coordinate the provision of military material and training to the Ukrainian armed forces. Germany will be “represented at a high level in the leadership,” he said Monday.

The new command, the name of which is still being debated, will have a staff of 700 people, the U.S. State Department has announced. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stressed that “these efforts do not make NATO party to the conflict.”

Russian state media and government officials have repeatedly said they consider the war in Ukraine a conflict between their country and NATO as a whole and the U.S. specifically due to their crucial support of Kyiv.

Pistorius also announced that Germany will buy “tens of thousands of rounds” of armaments this year through the Czech munitions initiative. He pledged to continue the military support of Ukraine more broadly, noting that the third German-donated patriot system had recently arrived in the eastern European country and was already operationally deployed.

In Washington, Germany will present a plan for NATO to buy drones “from German industry” on behalf of the Ukrainian armed forces, Pistorius said. This proposal would serve as “a foundation for our partners for the joint procurement of drones of all kinds,” he said while speaking to the press in Fairbanks.

According to the German government, the country has already provided 537 surveillance drones to Ukraine, mostly VECTOR and RQ-35 HEIDRUN models. The proposed initiative would encourage NATO to jointly procure these and other German-made drones on Kyiv’s behalf.

As of the end of April, Germany had provided a total of €10.2 bn ($11.03 bn) in military goods to Ukraine since the onset of the invasion, putting it second only to the U.S. on the list of Kyiv’s most dedicated supporters. In 2024 alone, the government in Berlin has already authorized the export of €4.88 bn in armaments to Ukraine, contributing to record military export volumes. (Source: Defense News)

09 Jul 24. Ukraine industry chief sees bumper year for land-based drones. The head of Ukraine’s strategic industries declared 2024 “the year of land systems” as his country rushes more drones to the battlefield.

“You will see more of them on the frontline,” said Oleksandr Kamyshin, speaking with reporters on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington. “That’s one of the game changers we expect in the nearest 12 months.”

Uncrewed weapons have been key to Ukraine’s self defense to this point in the war. Naval drones have afflicted Russia’s fleet in the Black Sea — which has needed to move farther east after having around 20 ships sunk or damaged. And aerial drones have become crucial for targeting and attacks on the front lines, where some 10,000 are lost every month.

Dressed in his usual black polo and fatigue-style pants, Kamyshin spoke at an event to promote Ukraine’s state-owned defense industry: Ukroboronprom. His comments followed a presentation on what Kyiv could produce on its own and where it needs help from foreign governments, defense companies and venture capitalists.

The increase in ground robotics Kamyshin predicted will come from manufacturers inside Ukraine, a sprawling network of volunteer, commercial and state-backed efforts. It also includes American companies partnering with Ukrainian firms to help improve their own kit.

Adam Bry, head of the drone maker Skydio, told Defense News in an interview last month that Ukrainian drone builders are the most advanced in the world. The land-based drones will perform a variety of missions, Kamyshin said, including demining, medical evacuation and combat itself.

Their main use, though, will be lightening some of the burden on Ukrainian soldiers fighting near the 600-mile front line. Ukraine lowered its eligible draft age from 27 to 25 earlier this year to help with some of its personnel shortages while fighting a much larger neighbor.

“The main point [is that] we try to get our people back from the front line,” Kamyshin said.

In addition, he said Ukraine’s aerial drones were already using artificial intelligence to target Russian positions and that the use of such software would expand in the coming year.

The Pentagon itself is pushing to use more autonomous as it faces a size disadvantage of its own: against China in the Indo-Pacific. In the last several years, the U.S. government has reviewed its policies on artificial intelligence and warfare, one part of the Replicator initiative — an effort to rush more drones to military leaders in the Pacific.

“We do our best to keep in mind all those ethical things, but at this point we have to work out a solution that will get more Russians out of my country,” Kamyshin said. “That’s the ethical dilemma we have now.”

Drones are one of Ukraine’s many equipment needs.

The country is still trying to source more artillery shells after a yearslong ramp up in the west. To do so, Kamyshin said, it will need two things: explosive components like TNT and money. The U.S. State Department, along with other countries, announced $2 bn in Foreign Military Financing for Ukraine’s defense industry earlier this year.

The money will help mature Ukraine’s domestic production in the long-term, but Kamyshin said it wasn’t enough.

“We are looking for another $10 [bn] to $15 bn,” he said.

(Source: Defense News)

09 Jul 24. How many tanks have Western countries provided to Ukraine?

Western allies have pledged or provided more than 800 tanks to Ukraine since 2022, of which well over 100 have been lost in combat, according to analysis.

More than any other land platform, main battle tanks (MBTs) best capture the public attention on the battlefield, despite the increasing threats created by loitering munitions and low-tech one-way attack drones, with Ukraine the beneficiary of hundreds of examples from European and US inventories.

Since Russia’s large-scale invasion in February 2022, Western and Nato allies have sought to provide Ukrainian forces with an ever-increasing range of military platforms, equipment, and ammunition, in a bid to prevent the overthrow of the government of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky.

While at first this saw the provision of solider operated anti-tank and anti-air missile systems, in time the size and capability of donated equipment escalated, reaching the MBT tipping point in early-2023 when the UK committed 14 Challenger 2 tanks. The donation likely represented nearly 10% of the Challenger 2 MBTs available to the British Army at the time.

Since then, Ukraine’s military has modernised through the provision of a huge range of MBTs, from older ex-Soviet design Russian vehicles still operational in old eastern bloc countries, to modern Western behemoths such as the US Army’s M1A1 Abrams, the UK’s Challenger 2, or the European Leopard 2.

The scale of military assistance being provided to Ukraine by Nato allies and sympathetic nations as Kyiv continues its fight against Russia can be difficult to gauge, as countries continue to pledge and provide systems, including heavy armour.

By researching available open-source information (OSINT) as well as insight from within GlobalData’s defence desk, Army Technology has been able to determine a range of tanks provided or pledged to Ukraine.

Where possible, data has been derived from existing articles written by GlobalData’s defence desk. In areas where this has not been possible, information from the Kiel Institute for World Economy has been utilised, as well as official government sources from the US, UK, and continental European countries.

The data: Ukraine the recipient of Western armour

The topline figure indicates that Western Nato members and other allies of Ukraine have provided, pledged, or have on order between 682 to 819 MBTs, ranging from older 105mm-armed Leopard 1 variants and T-72s, to modern Challenger 2 and relatively new M1A1 Abrams.

The lower number donates platforms provided, with the upper number includes those platforms pledged or on order and not yet delivered.

Calculating the losses of Western-origin MBTs operated by Ukraine is difficult to determine, with both sides likely exaggerating their respective successes. However, OSINT figures compiled by Ukraine war tracker site Oryx gives an indication as the potential attrition rate of donated equipment, including: 95 T-72s, eight PT-91, ten M1A1 Abrams, one Challenger 2, and at least 30 Leopard 2s of ranging variants.

Russia has sought to capitalise on Western supplied tanks that it has managed to capture or destroy during combat in Ukraine, with semi-permanent static displays in Moscow showcasing it successes. Include in this are main battle tanks and armoured vehicles.

Russia’s never-ending tank supply

According to GlobalData, Russia’s land inventory prior to its invasion of Ukraine indicated a potential fleet of 16,970 tanks, comprised of 550 1990s era T-90s, 3,450 T-80s and 8,950 T-72s from the 1970s, with a further 2,000 T-64s and 2,400 T-62s, originating from the 1960s. Of the new T-14 Armata MBTs, Russia was thought to hold around 20 in its order of battle.

Earlier GlobalData research conducted in December 2022 calculated that Russia’s equipment loss in the first ten months of the war in Ukraine had cost Moscow more materiel than was seen in both Chechen wars combined.

However, in January this year it was reported by Army Technology that despite an increase in Russian MBT and other armoured combat vehicles (ACV) losses in Ukraine, Moscow’s ramping up of its industrial capacity means that it could maintain its current level of offensive activity for the foreseeable future.

In a 29 January 2024 post on the social media platform X, UK Defence Intelligence stated that since early October 2023 Russian ground forces had been on the offensive in eastern Ukraine. During this period, Russian losses have increased with its forces likely losing up to 365 MBTs and 700 ACVs, achieving “minor” territorial gains.

Russia is able to produce or repair at least 100 MBTs per month according to the UK’s Defence Intelligence, a rate of attrition that it acceptable based on the ability of Russian industry to bring damaged platforms back into service, produce new tanks, or else mobilise stored/reserve stock.

In addition, UK Defence Intelligence stated that from 24 February 2022 to 25 January 2024, Russian ground forces likely lost around 2,600 MBTs in Ukraine. Russia losses of combat vehicles in 2023 was around 40% fewer than in 2022.

In mid-November 2023, the UK MoD estimated that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had cost Moscow more than 2,400 main battle tanks (MBTs) – equivalent to around 15% of its pre-war inventory – at the time.

(Source: army-technology.com)

08 Jul 24. Germany donates third Patriot system to Ukraine.

The delivery of the German Patriot system may hint at Nato’s willingness to provide more firepower to Ukraine during the Washington summit.

As Nato leaders travel to Washington for the Nato summit, the German Government has pre-empted a major topic of discussion on Ukraine’s firepower needs by announcing their donation of a Patriot air and missile defence system to the country in their latest package of support on 9 July 2024.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence welcomed Germany’s “unwavering support” in a post on the social media platform, X. Besides the system itself and accompanying missiles, the German government also offered 55,000 155-millimetre artillery rounds, drones, jammers, protected vehicles, ammunition, radars and rifles among other forms of military equipment.

Ukraine’s Air Force Command announced that the third German Patriot system has already arrived in the country, adding that “Patriot systems save lives and protect infrastructure from Russian terror.”

Prior to this, Germany provided two other Patriot systems and many missiles to the warring nation on the periphery of Europe.

The Patriot system is a long-range, all-altitude, all-weather air defence system to counter tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and advanced aircraft. The latest PAC-3 missiles are equipped with a track-via-missile guidance system. Midcourse correction commands are transmitted to the guidance system from the mobile engagement control centre.

Other air defence capabilities include four units of the popular IRIS-T SLM, used as part of the European Sky Shield Initative. This German-made system has 360-degree protection and simultaneous engagement of multiple targets. It operates at short to medium-ranges (distances of 40km) within extremely brief reaction times (reaching Mach 3).

As part of a joint effort with the US just after Russia’s Kharkiv offensive began, Germany announced it would provide Ukraine with three more HIMARS – a highly mobile artillery rocket system offering the firepower of multiple launch rocket systems on a wheeled chassis. Although slightly misleading, this show of support was a replacement of one system that was destroyed and two units that were severely damaged, according to open source intelligence. (Source: army-technology.com)

08 Jul 24. Discussions About Ukraine’s Defense Loom Large During NATO Summit. President Joe Biden is hosting leaders from 38 countries in Washington this week for a summit that marks the 75th anniversary of the NATO alliance.

White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby said today there will be a meeting of the NATO Ukraine Council on Thursday, after which Biden will host an event with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and nearly two dozen allies and partners, including the United States, who have security agreements with Ukraine.

Since the passage of the supplemental military assistance package in April, Biden has authorized a total of seven security packages to help Ukraine, including five drawdowns of munitions and equipment.

Since those packages were delivered, the situation on the ground has stabilized, Kirby said.

Ukrainian forces have successfully stopped Russia’s attack north of Kharkiv, denying Russia the ability to take that city and limiting Russian gains to areas just across the border, and elsewhere, he said, including in Zaporizhzhia.

“Throughout these last three months, the Russians have attacked relentlessly across all … fronts, and the price that they have paid for the few meters that they have gained here and there has been extensive: heavy casualties, destroyed equipment, disrupted supply lines, degraded morale. The people of Ukraine have, yet again, demonstrated that when supplied and when supported by the international community and the United States,” they can hold off the largest army in Europe, he said.

Russia continues to bombard frontline towns with massive and low-accuracy glide bombs and missiles, harming civilians, he said.

The United States and several of its allies will have several big announcements at this week’s summit regarding strengthening their military and political partnerships with Ukraine, he said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

08 Jul 24. Ukraine’s Bridge to NATO Membership Is a Topic for Summit. President Joe Biden will host leaders of the NATO member nations in Washington this week, as the alliance celebrates its 75th anniversary in the city where the original treaty was signed.

Partner nations from the European Union, Ukraine, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand will also attend, said a senior administration official.

Ukraine’s long-term “bridge to membership” in NATO will be an important topic of discussion, along with providing Ukraine more immediate deliverables, such as air defense, training, equipment and logistics, the official said.

The longer-term discussions on NATO membership for Ukraine will focus on shoring up its defense capabilities, institution building, military interoperability with NATO, and a financial pledge for defense spending, the official said.

On the sidelines of the summit, Biden will host an event with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and around two dozen allies and partners who have signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine, including the United States, the official said.

The United States will also announce new steps to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses and other military capabilities, the official said.

Tomorrow, Biden will host an anniversary event at Washington’s Mellon Auditorium where the treaty that formed NATO was signed in 1949.

On Wednesday, Biden will welcome Sweden, the newest member of the alliance, in a meeting of NATO’s 32 leaders.

On Thursday, NATO will hold a meeting with the EU and NATO’s Indo-Pacific partners — Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand — to further deepen cooperation. Later, there will be a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council.

During the summit, there will most likely be a strong statement from NATO condemning China’s support for Russia’s defense industrial base, which has aided Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. Most of Russia’s semiconductors, as well as nitrocellulose, which is used for missile propellants, have come from Russia, the official said.

“All of this is not only fueling Russia’s war against Ukraine but is also creating a long-term challenge for European security that, obviously, our allies recognize,” the official said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

08 Jul 24. Russia says it hit defence targets, aviation bases in Ukraine. The Russian Defence Ministry said on Monday that its forces had carried out strikes on defence industry targets and aviation bases in Ukraine, where officials said a barrage of missiles had killed at least 29 people and hit a children’s hospital.

Moscow said its strikes were retaliation for attacks on Russia. Earlier, the governor of the Russian Belgorod region neighbouring Ukraine said one civilian had been killed and three injured after Ukrainian shells hit a village.

“This morning, in response to attempts by the Kyiv regime to damage Russian energy and economic facilities, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out a group strike with long-range precision weapons against Ukrainian military industry facilities and AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) air bases”, the Russian Defence Ministry said.

“The objectives of the strike have been achieved. The assigned objects are hit.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russian forces fired more than 40 missiles targeting several cities and damaging infrastructure, commercial and residential buildings in the fiercest attack in months.

The Russian Defence Ministry said allegations by Kyiv that it had deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure in the strike were “absolutely untrue.”

“Numerous published photos and video footage from Kyiv unequivocally confirm the fact of destruction caused by the fall of a Ukrainian air defense missile launched from an anti-aircraft missile system within the city”, the ministry said. (Source: Google/Reuters)

08 Jul 24. Nato leaders are expected to make a one-year, €40bn pledge of support for Ukraine this week, as the alliance’s most important members are engulfed in domestic political turmoil that limits their capacity to commit more long-term resources to Ukraine in its defence against Russia. The summit starting on Tuesday in Washington comes on the heels of a snap election in France, where talks over a new government are expected to be complex and where the Ukraine-sceptic far right has become a major political force, and as Joe Biden faces pressure to quit the US presidential race against Donald Trump. In Germany, the coalition of Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains unpopular and fragile. These tectonic shifts have undermined Nato’s efforts to cast the alliance’s 75th anniversary as a show of unwavering support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Instead the event risks shining a light on the fragility of continued western aid for Kyiv. “Of course, in democracies we can never provide guarantees. We don’t live in that world. But we live in a world of maximising good outcomes and minimising bad outcomes,” Jens Stoltenberg, secretary-general of Nato, said ahead of the summit. He added that the collective €40bn pledge for Ukraine over the next year is an improvement on the current situation, in which individual contributions are not always transparent or costed using the same criteria. But it is less ambitious than Nato’s initial proposal for a multiyear $100bn support package. “You can discuss whether the glass is full, but it is more than half full,” Stoletenberg told reporters. Biden, meanwhile, hosts the summit facing growing calls to suspend his re-election campaign so another Democrat can run against Donald Trump in November. Trump, who leads Biden in most national and swing state polls, has threatened to withdraw from Nato if elected to another four-year term. The former president has also repeatedly pledged to end military support for Ukraine. Nato will not offer Ukraine a formal invitation to join the alliance, Kyiv’s most desired outcome.

However, a senior Biden administration official said allies would make “significant” announcements of support for Ukraine, including “new steps” to bolster its air defences. Biden is also set to host an event on Thursday with Zelenskyy and roughly two dozen allies that have signed bilateral security agreements with Kyiv. Donald Trump, who leads Joe Biden in most polls, has threatened to withdraw from Nato if elected as US president © Brendan McDermid/Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters Another point of concern is the need to increase defence budgets across Nato, so that all countries meet the 2 per cent of GDP spending target, while also sustaining support for Kyiv. That will be a central priority for incoming secretary-general Mark Rutte, who replaces Stoltenberg on October 1, even as alliance diplomats warned it was becoming harder as taxpayers resist rising defence budgets. Another challenge is managing pointed internal divisions, as illustrated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s controversial trip to Moscow last week to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin. Orban, Nato’s most prominent critic of support to Kyiv, also leveraged his veto on Rutte’s appointment last month to secure an opt-out from Nato activities that support Ukraine. The Biden administration official said the US was “concerned” by Orban’s trip, “which will neither advance the cause of peace nor will it promote Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence”. Stoltenberg said Nato had always managed to resolve its internal divisions since it was founded in 1949. “Again and again there are concerns, and again and again we prove to be resilient,” he said. Even so, in the final negotiations on the summit communique, the US and Germany led efforts to resist including a reference to Ukraine’s path to Nato membership being “irreversible”, as demanded by many other allies, particularly in eastern Europe. US and German scepticism over Ukraine’s membership is deep-seated. Officials cite the need for Kyiv to make major structural reforms, and that there is no possibility of formal progress on membership without an end to the war. Recommended War in Ukraine Ukraine withdraws from parts of Chasiv Yar as Russia advances “Every time we have engaged the Ukrainians . . . we have been clear on the limitations, the need for reforms and the fact that part of their territory is under occupation,” said a senior US state department official. Instead, Nato will offer Ukraine a support package that includes taking control of most co-ordination of military assistance to Kyiv, a role previously played by the US, and leadership of various national programmes to train Ukrainian troops in Poland. The operation will not be formally called a Nato “mission” after Berlin, which is wary of anything that suggests Nato is a direct participant in the conflict, refused to endorse such terminology, seeing it as too militaristic. On China, Nato allies are, meanwhile, expected to agree stronger language than previously to condemn Beijing for its economic support to Moscow in its war in Ukraine. That Chinese support includes increased supplies of technologies such as microchips and chemicals that have civilian purposes but are being used to manufacture Russian weapons. (Source: FT.com)

07 Jul 24. Russia may resort to an old World War II tactic that had a key role in the D-Day landings to repel Ukrainian drone attacks.

Russia is planning to use barrage balloons to counter Ukrainian drone strikes.
The balloons will rise up to 300 meters and drop a 250-meter net to stop drones from getting through.
The tactic was inspired by barrage balloons used in the First and Second World Wars.

Russia is developing a network of barrage balloons to repel Ukrainian drone strikes, inspired by a tactic used in World War I and II.

Speaking at a conference in St. Petersburg this week, Polina Albek, the general director of the Russian aerospace firm First Airship, which is developing the network, said: “Our main activity is building cargo airships, but today, based on the experience of our ancestors, we have created the ‘barrier’ defense system,” the Russian state-run outlet RIA Novosti reported.

The balloons are designed to rise in a row up to 300 meters (984 feet) before dropping a 250-meter (820 feet) net designed to stop incoming drones, per The Telegraph. They have a maximum load of 30kg (around 66 pounds).

Albek said that the balloons can also be fitted with a “vacuum gun” to shoot nets at oncoming drones, adding that the system has already been tested and that preliminary orders had been placed.

She noted that the developers had been inspired by the use of barrage balloons in WWI.

Barrage balloons were first used in WWI, but they played a particularly key role in Britain’s defenses during WWII. According to London’s Imperial War Museum, Britain had 2,748 barrage balloons in use by September 1941.

They were also crucial during the D-Day landings on June 6, 1944, providing protection to Allied soldiers and ships.

The balloons forced German aircraft to fly at higher altitudes, making their targets more difficult to strike as well as making them more vulnerable to antiaircraft fire.

The cables that anchored the balloons to the ground could also pose a serious risk to any aircraft attempting to fly through them.

The balloons offered “a vital means of defence against the [German] Luftwaffe as their trailing metal cables would severely damage or destroy any aircraft which touched them,” according to a report published by the Royal Air Forces Association.

“Attackers attempting to shoot down a balloon could be caught in an explosion of the hydrogen used to get them airborne,” the report adds.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine has continued to target Russian energy infrastructure and airbases with long-range drone attacks.

Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Defense Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, told The War Zone in June that Ukrainian forces had launched 70 drones in a strike on Morozovsk airbase in Russia’s Rostov region, almost 200 miles from the Ukrainian border.

A security source told Sky News that the Ukrainian attack was part of a “sustained campaign to degrade the Russian Air Force.”

Also in June, Kyiv said it had hit a prized Russian Su-57 stealth fighter jet stationed at the Akhtubinsk airfield in southern Russia — 360 miles from the front line.

In May, Ukraine claimed one of its longest drone attacks to date, with officials saying a drone traveled 930 miles to strike an oil refinery inside Russia. (Source: Google/Yahoo!)

07 Jul 24. New UK Defence Secretary pledges to step up support for Ukraine on visit to Odesa. The UK’s new Defence Secretary has pledged to step up the UK’s support for Ukraine on a visit to Odesa, less than 48 hours after his appointment.

Following a meeting with President Zelenskyy and discussions with his counterpart Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, Mr Healey announced that the UK would provide a new package of support to the country, including more artillery guns, a quarter of a m ammunition rounds and nearly 100 precision Brimstone missiles.

The Defence Secretary also pledged to fast-track military support committed for Ukraine in April to arrive within the next 100 days.

During the visit, which coincided with Ukrainian celebrations of their annual navy day, the Defence Secretary confirmed that Britain’s steadfast commitment to Ukraine will be reinvigorated by the new government in Westminster.

Defence Secretary John Healey said: “There may have been a change in government, but the UK is united for Ukraine. As the new Defence Secretary, I will ensure that we reinvigorate Britain’s support by stepping up supplies of vital military aid. Our commitment to stand with the Ukrainian people is absolute, as is our resolve to confront Russian aggression and pursue Putin for his war crimes. This government is steadfast in our commitment to continue supplying military assistance and will stand shoulder to shoulder with our Ukrainian friends for as long as it takes.”

Upon taking office the Defence Secretary immediately asked for extra support to be provided to Ukraine which was readily available and meets their needs for the battlefield against Russia.

This new package includes:

A quarter of a million of 50 calibre ammunition
90 anti-armour Brimstone missiles
50 small military boats to support river and coastal operations
40 de-mining vehicles
10 AS-90 artillery guns
61 bulldozers to help build defensive positions
Support for previously gifted AS-90s, including 32 new barrels and critical spares which will help Ukraine fire another 60,000 155mm rounds

John Healey also directed officials to ensure that the promised package in April of military aid is accelerated and delivered in full to Ukraine within the next 100 days.

The UK announced in April this year the largest ever military aid package to Ukraine, including 400 vehicles, 1600 strike and air defence missiles, including additional Storm Shadow long-range precision guided-missiles, four m rounds of ammunition and 60 boats, including off-shore raiding craft.

Having provided more than £7.6 bn of military support since Ukraine unprovoked invasion, the UK will continue to work with allies and partners to provide Ukraine with the equipment and weapons they need to win the war.

The support provided by the UK so far has proved pivotal in supporting Ukraine’s ability to defend itself since the war started, having been the first country to provide modern, Western battle tanks, as well as long-range precision guided missiles.

More than 42,000 Ukrainian soldiers have also returned to fight in Ukraine after completing basic training in the UK since June 2022, under Operation Interflex.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff, said:

The recent milestone of 500,000 Russians killed or wounded is a reminder of how badly this war has gone for Russia. Over the past year, with British help, Ukraine has driven the Russian fleet from Crimea and reopened the Black Sea for exports.

The battle on land is much tougher, but Ukraine’s future as a sovereign nation is not in doubt.

A free and democratic Ukraine, full of promise and hope, stands in jarring contrast to Russia’s trajectory of contraction and decline, and an increasingly authoritarian future under Putin.

By continuing to support Ukraine, and by helping to ensure Russia loses, Britain and Europe will be stronger and safer over the long term.

Further military support for Ukraine in the longer term is being provided through international capability coalitions, of which the UK is co-leading the maritime coalition alongside Norway, and Drone coalition with Latvia.

The drone coalition has rapidly deployed thousands of drones to support Ukraine whilst also boosting the UK defence industry – with more than £50 m pledged so far to fund the coalition.

Training and equipment provided to Ukraine’s naval forces have proved invaluable in degrading and containing Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, allowing Ukraine to restore its vital grain exports to pre-war levels.

(Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

07 Jul 24. Ukrainian forces shoot down Russian Su-25 in Donbas. Ukrainian servicemen shot down a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft in the Pokrovsk sector while it was firing at Ukrainian Armed Forces positions, the Khortytsia Operational and Strategic Troop Grouping reported on Telegram on July 7.

According to the report, the aircraft was taken down by anti-aircraft soldiers of the 110th Marko Bezruchko Separate Mechanized Brigade. The military noted that the plane is now “burning up in the steppes of Ukrainian Donbas.”

As of the morning of July 7, the Ukrainian military has shot down a total of 360 Russian aircraft, according to the General Staff.

On June 28, the National Guard also reported shooting down a Su-25 on the Pokrovsk front. At that time, the military used the Igla anti-aircraft missile system to down the warplane.

The Center for Strategic Communications reported on June 28 that since the beginning of 2024, the Ukrainian military has shot down more than 30 Russian warplanes. (Source: News Now)

05 Jul 24. Dutch F-16s fighter jets bound for Ukraine: delivery ‘soon.’

The Dutch Ministry of Defense, in coordination with the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation, confirmed the imminent delivery in a letter addressed to the Chairman of the House of Representatives of the States General.

The Netherlands has finalised preparations for delivering 24 F-16 fighter jets to support Ukraine.

The first aircraft is expected to be handed over soon, signalling a commitment to aiding Ukraine’s defence capabilities.

Defence Minister K.H. Ollongren emphasised the importance of operational security, stating that no further details about the delivery will be made public now. However, she assured the House would receive confidential updates on the operation’s progress.

Amid Russia’s intensified summer offensive in Ukraine, Dutch plans to deliver 24 F-16 fighter jets have become a focal point of conflict, with reports indicating Russian airstrikes targeting Ukrainian airfields where these jets are expected to arrive soon from the Netherlands. The city of Starokostiantyniv, home to a crucial Ukrainian air base, has already faced bombardment.

The required permit to export military equipment has been issued, allowing the transfer of the F-16s to Ukraine.

The provision of these fighter jets is expected to enhance Ukraine’s air defence and boost its military capabilities.

In the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Dutch remain dedicated to members of international institutions such as NATO and the EU. They have also shown consistent support for the people of Ukraine, as highlighted by GlobalData’s “The Netherlands Defense Market 2024-2029” report.

The Netherlands’ stance in delivering these F-16s highlights the role that European nations continue to play in addressing Ukraine’s security challenges.

As the first aircraft prepares for its journey to Ukraine, it marks a new chapter in the Netherlands’ support for Ukraine, reaffirming its dedication to aiding a nation in need during a crisis. (Source: airforce-technology.com)

05 Jul 24. How much artillery have Western countries provided to Ukraine?

Western allies have pledged or provided more than 800 artillery systems to Ukraine since 2022, with an estimated high of 937, according to analysis.

The scale of military assistance being provided to Ukraine by Nato allies and sympathetic nations as Kyiv continues its fight against Russia following Moscow’s 2022 invasion can be difficult to gauge, as countries continue their pledge and provision of systems, perhaps most crucially, long-range fires and artillery.

By researching available open-source information (OSINT) as well as insight from within GlobalData’s defence desk, Army Technology has been able to determine a range of artillery systems provided, pledged, or on order to Ukraine.

The topline figure indicates that Western Nato members and other allies of Ukraine have provided between 805 to 937 artillery or multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), ranging from 105mm vehicle drawn short-range tactical platforms such as the L118, medium range 155mm self-propelled howitzers, through to long-range guided MLRS (GMLRS) such as the HIMARS or M270 systems.

The number of MLRS systems is necessarily smaller but offer the potential for longer range strikes against targets, with munitions such as the ATACMS, compatible with the M270 or HIMARS launchers, having an official range of 300km, and likely further.

Calculating equipment losses through combat or accidents is difficult to determine as Ukraine does not release central figures on destroyed platforms. However, OSINT specialist Oryx has been tracking losses of both Ukrainian and Russian equipment in the war, indicating that hundreds of Western-donated Ukrainian artillery and MLRS systems have been destroyed in combat operations.

Ukraine’s artillery disparity with Russia

Ukraine’s need for artillery systems has been demonstrated in operations throughout 2024, with a six-month delay in US support the primary reason for Russia’s ability to seize the initiative on the battlefield and push Ukrainian forces back from a number of key towns.

Official French figures also calculated that for every six Russian artillery shells fired, Ukraine is able to fire a single round, indicative of a supply disparity despite Nato’s support of Kyiv.

Calculating Russia’s own artillery capabilities is difficult, with little in the way of official figures post-2022 outlining orders of battle, without taking into account equipment lost in combat over the past two-and-a-half years.

According to pre-war information from GlobalData, Russia’s defence budget was boosted to $48.6bn in 2021. In accordance with the pre-Ukraine invasion scenario, the Russian defence budget was anticipated to increase from $43.3bn in 2023 to reach $46.9bn in 2027 reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 2.1%.

It is unknown exactly how much of Russia’s GDP is now committed to defence. However, Russia has moved to a wartime stance with Western officials estimating that around 40% of the country’s economy is now committed to security and defence purposes.

In February 2024, a commentary by Dr Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds for the UK’s Royal United Services Institute defence think tank said that Russia had just under 6,000 artillery and MLRS pieces in the field, comprised of “approximately 4,780 artillery pieces, of which 20% are self-propelled, [and] 1,130 MLRS”. (Source: army-technology.com)

19 Jun 24. Australian rifle systems farewelled for Ukraine frontlines.

Ambassador of Ukraine to Australia Vasyl Myroshnychenko has personally farewelled a shipment of new Australian-made combat systems on their way to the frontlines of Ukraine.

The first official batch of Advanced RACU (Rifle Accessory Control Unit) Commander Systems, built by Canberra technology company Kord Defence, will be supplied to special operations soldiers of the Ukrainian Military under the Australian government’s $100 m package of military assistance announced by Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles in April this year.

The weapon-mounted RACU Commander System is a programmable, centralised point of control and allows a soldier to quickly engage any and all weapon-mounted and body-worn electronic devices, including radios, a torch, laser and other electronic equipment without removing their hands from the rifle.

Kord has confirmed at the launch event, held on 19 June in Canberra, that the device can be mounted as a standard barrel attachment on rifles of Western and Eastern design.

“It is the resilience of the Ukrainian people that has been underestimated but also the resilience of the international coalition of countries that have stood strong for Ukraine and this is where Australia was from the very beginning and we are very thankful to the Australian government,” ambassador Myroshnychenko said, speaking at the event on 19 June.

“For the Defence Department and especially personally thankful to Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles who travelled to Ukraine at the end of April. He was able to see and meet the Prime Minister and the top military leadership as well.

“I was very pleased to hear that the Kord systems were then included in the last package and this is really fantastic. Also as you know … a number of other companies from Australia (including) drones were included in this latest package. And so this is very welcoming in Ukraine.

“Thanks a lot for your work and I understand that during the last two months, you had a little bit of an intensive schedule and making sure you can deliver what’s needed by the deadline. So thanks a lot for doing it. Thanks for delivering that. We hope that after these items are provided, there will be requests for more, so I hope there will be more those coming.”

It’s understood each individual combat system could be on the ground in the conflict as soon as next week after 10 earlier systems were previously donated to the Armed Forces of Ukraine for initial evaluation.

“We are delighted to equip Ukrainian soldiers with our RACU Commander Systems, which we are confident will enhance their safety and lethality on the frontline,” Dr Peter Moran, managing director of the Kord Group, said.

“Our RACU technology will enable Ukrainian soldiers to keep ’head up, eyes on target, hands on weapon’, and we are honoured to stand with other nations and industries in aiding their efforts.

“Think of it as a simple, common remote for the soldier, which gives them quick, easy, and intuitive control.”

The system includes a programmable three-button controller (Commander) as well as a range of adapters which enable either wired or wireless control of the electronic devices, according to the company.

The controller is designed to attach specifically to a quad rail or similar system and can be deployed singly or as a linked pair of control units. Each unit can be configured with one, two, or three buttons, allowing for a variety of button-press combinations for programming. Device control can be exercised directly or indirectly from the controller, and buttons can be activated using different techniques or actions.

Each system sent to Ukraine will include a radio, headset, torch and laser as well as the control system, according to Kord. In addition, Kord is understood to be providing a training app to accompany the equipment and instruct on its proper use in the field. (Source: Defence Connect)

05 Jul 24. Ukraine Retreats from Key Positions as Russia Advances in Donbas. Ukrainian forces have retreated from the northeastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar, a strategically significant town in the eastern Donetsk region, under the pressure of a sustained Russian offensive. The retreat comes as Russian forces continue their relentless assault on Ukraine’s eastern Donbas sector, gaining new ground through extensive air strikes, artillery bombardments, and repeated ground assaults.

Chasiv Yar, which lies west of the Russian-controlled city of Bakhmut, has been a focal point of Russian efforts due to its elevated position. Capturing Chasiv Yar would jeopardize nearby cities, compromise critical Ukrainian supply routes, and move Russia closer to its goal of seizing the entire Donetsk region. Ukrainian military spokesperson Nazar Voloshyn confirmed that Ukrainian troops had to withdraw from a neighborhood in the town, citing the destruction of defensive positions and the threat of significant casualties if they remained.

The Russian advance has been marked by significant gains around Toretsk, where Russian infantry captured the village of Yurivka following intense house-to-house combat. This progress represents a notable victory for Russian forces, who had previously struggled to achieve substantial territorial gains in the sector. Both Russian and Ukrainian sources confirmed that elements of Russia’s Central Group of Forces reached Toretsk’s outskirts and continued to attack surrounding villages.

Chasiv Yar, now largely in ruins after months of Russian shelling, once had a population of 12,000 but is now deserted. Ukrainian fighters have repositioned to better-protected areas within the town, continuing their resistance against the more populous Russian forces. Battalion commander Oleh Shriaiev reported that Russian troops outnumber Ukrainian forces ten to one.

As the conflict continues, the battle for control over Chasiv Yar and surrounding areas remains critical. Ukraine’s armed forces have repeatedly stated that Russia’s goal is to capture Chasiv Yar to facilitate further advances into Ukrainian territory. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

05 Jul 24. Ukraine Effectively Uses Retired U.S. HAWK SAM System Against Russian Missiles and Drones. Ukraine has successfully utilized the American-made MIM-23 HAWK surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, retired by the U.S. more than two decades ago, to shoot down Russian cruise missiles and Shahed drones. The HAWK system, initially fielded in the 1960s, has proven its enduring utility on the modern battlefield despite being considered obsolete by many contemporary standards.

The Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) highlighted the achievements of one of its units, which managed to destroy six Shahed drones in a single engagement. The crew, led by a young professional officer known as “Lev,” includes Oleksandr, a HAWK air defense operator with numerous successful engagements against enemy missiles and drones. Oleksandr’s team received training in Spain, where they learned to operate the HAWK system, despite its original design not being optimized for drone interception.

Oleksandr recounted the challenges of targeting Shahed drones, which fly slowly and require prolonged attention, making the task physically and mentally taxing. Nevertheless, his team demonstrated remarkable efficiency, downing six drones in their first combat encounter. The HAWK system, though aged, has proven effective in skilled hands, managing to intercept a range of targets, including the Kh-59 cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones.

Lev’s unit, equipped with the S-125 (NATO: SA-3 Goa) air defense system, also showed outstanding performance. Despite the S-125’s static, point-defense nature and complex operation, requiring manual target tracking and radar control, Lev’s crew managed to shoot down a 3M14 Kalibr cruise missile on their first engagement.

While the U.S. military replaced the HAWK with more modern systems like the FIM-92 Stinger, Avenger, and MIM-104 Patriot by the 1990s, the hand-me-down HAWK systems have found a renewed purpose in Ukraine’s defense.

(Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

06 Jul 24. Russia launched an overnight drone attack across Ukraine on Saturday, hitting an energy facility in the Sumy region in the northeast of the country, officials said.

Ukrainian mobile drone hunter groups and air defence units shot down 24 of the 27 Russian drones fired on 12 regions, the air force said.

National grid operator Ukrenergo said the energy facility in the Sumy region was damaged, forcing emergency electricity shut-offs for industrial consumers in the city of Sumy. Repair teams were working to restore supplies, it said.

There were no immediate reports of casualties or other damage details from the regions.

Since March, Russian forces have intensified their bombardments of the Ukrainian power sector, knocking out the bulk of the thermal and hydropower generation and forcing long blackouts across the country.

Ukrenergo planned scheduled cut-offs of electricity throughout the day across the country as domestic generation and electricity imports could not cover the deficit.

Ukraine’s energy system was already hobbled in the first year after Russia’s invasion in February 2022. The power system lost about half of its available generation capacity due to the Russian missile and drone attacks in the past four months. (Source: Reuters)

——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.

A CNIM Group Company

NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

Protek Selected By Dutch Armed Forces

PARLIAMENTARY QUESTIONS

MANAGEMENT ON THE MOVE