NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Jul 04.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

BAKHMUT: Russian forces have reportedly begun attacking Chasiv Yar from the Toretsk direction using small infantry assaults and occasional mechanised attacks
AID: NATO will establish a new command to co-ordiante the provision of aid to Ukraine and training of Ukrainian troops
CHINA: Unconfirmed reports indicate Russo-Chinese collaboration on attack drones; the provision of such capabilities would highly likely expose involved Chinese companies to Western punitive measures
FORECAST: Ukrainian officials have reiterated their unwillingness to compromise with Russia or to cede any territory to end the war
BAKHMUT: Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortytsia Grouping of Forces Nazar Voloshyn stated on 2 July that Russian forces have begun attacking Chasiv Yar ‘from the Toretsk direction’ (meaning from the south), principally with small infantry assaults and occasional mechanised attacks. The Toretsk area is located around 12 miles (20km) south of Chasiv Yar. It will likely prove to be a significant obstacle, especially as Russian forces have made very limited progress in this direction over the last few months. Ukrainian commentator Kostyantyn Masovets reported on 2 July that Russian forces have intensified their attacks near Toretsk over the last 24 hours; they reportedly deployed additional battalions and assault companies in order to support ongoing offensive operations. This indicates that Russian forces are currently prioritising operations on this axis, likely in a bid to exploit a perceived potential weakness in Ukraine’s thinly stretched line.
BAKHMUT: It nevertheless remains unclear how far Russian forces have managed to penetrate Toretsk over the last week, with little visual evidence available at the time of writing to confirm a permanent Russian presence in the key frontline villages of Pivnichne and Pivdenne. Nevertheless, it remains likely that Russian forces are making advances in this direction. If they are able to capitalise on this progress, they will be able to apply additional pressure on Chasiv Yar’s southern flank. This area is also home to the terminus of the Siverskyi-Donets-Donbas canal, which runs north towards (and through) Chasiv Yar. Russian forces have struggled to cross the canal despite two months of attacks against the eastern flanks of Chasiv Yar. Voloshyn confirmed on 4 July that Ukrainian troops withdrew from the Kanal district, retreating to more advantageous defensive positions.
BAKHMUT: If Russian forces are able to make progress, especially in Pivnichne, and to consolidate these gains, they would possibly threaten to move north along the western bank of the canal, further threatening Chasiv Yar’s flanks. However, this remains a significant tactical operation, and it is unclear whether Russian forces in the area would be capable of achieving this feat in the coming weeks.
DONETSK: Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations along the Porkorvsk-Avdiivka line. Geolocated footage from 2 July showed Russian advances within Sokil and south of Voskhod, which are located to the north-west of Avdiivka. On 3 July, an OSINT source reported that Russian forces have taken control of both settlements. While this has yet to be officially confirmed, these reported losses likely underscore Moscow’s continued efforts to reach Pokrovsk.
KHARKIV: Geolocated footage posted on 3 July indicates that Ukrainian forces recently progressed in central Vovchansk along Soborna Street.
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Ukrainian forces continued counter-attacking along the Oskil-Kreminna frontline, making limited confirmed gains to the south-east of Novoyehorivka as of 2 July. The settlement is located to the north-west of Kreminna.
SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage published on 2 July indicates that Russian forces have made limited advances along the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia oblast border. Russian forces have advanced north of Staromaiorske, located around 11 miles (18km) south of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast).
SUMY: On 2 July, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces had conducted sabotage and reconnaissance activities along the international border region across Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts. Footage from 30 June onwards indicated limited Russian artillery strikes in the area. It is most likely that Russian forces conducted a limited cross-border raid in order to maintain pressure on Ukraine’s entire border with Russia; we previously assessed that this would be a component of the ongoing summer offensive.
STRIKES: On 3 July, Russian forces launched three Iskandr-K cruise missiles, four Kh-59 missiles, five Shahed-131/136 drones and an Orlan-10 drone. Ukrainian air defences intercepted one Iskandr-K missile, as well as all the Kh-59 missiles and drones. The strikes mostly focused on Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk oblast), where at least six people were killed in the attack. The Ukrainian authorities reported that Russian forces struck a shopping centre, residential buildings and a hospital in Dnipro. Russian sources claimed the attack targeted a military airfield near Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk oblast) and a defence enterprise on the outskirts of Dnipro.
STRIKES: The 3 July attack underscores the persistent threat Russian long-range strikes pose to civilian targets. On 3 July, Danylo Kubai, Ukraine’s envoy to international organisations in Vienna, stated that 97% of Russian drone and missile strikes target civilian infrastructure. If true, this reflects Moscow’s continued efforts to disrupt Kyiv’s long-term socio-economic resilience and to sap the country’s morale.
STRIKES: Early on 4 July, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 22 Shahed-131/136 drones. Ukraine intercepted 21 drones over Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy and Zhytomyr oblasts. The remaining Shahed drone hit energy infrastructure in Chernihiv, leaving around 6,000 residents without electricity.
STRIKES: Early on 3 July, Ukrainian forces conducted a maritime drone strike against naval infrastructure in Novorossiysk (Krasnodar Krai, Russia). The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that all the drones were intercepted. There have been no reports of damage caused by the attack. Ukraine’s navy has not disclosed any details of the operation.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

US: On 3 July, Ukrainian media outlets reported that a US State Department official expressed remarks suggesting that Ukraine is allowed to strike at greater distances into Russia if Russian forces attempt to expand the current frontlines. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs James O’Brien claimed that Russia is losing its ability to advance due to Ukrainian strikes against Russian facilities in border regions. US President Joe Biden granted limited authorisation in May for Ukrainian strikes using US-supplied weapons against targets in Russia near Ukraine’s Kharkiv oblast. As O’Brien stated that there are specific circumstances in which longer-range Ukrainian strikes can be carried out, we assess that a complete relaxation of US policy on the matter is unlikely in the near term.
AID: NATO will station a senior civilian official in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and establish a new command in Germany to co-ordinate the provision of military aid and the training of Ukrainian troops. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on 1 July that the official would oversee matters relating to Ukraine’s longer-term military modernisation requirements and non-military support. Meanwhile, the new operation in Wiesbaden (Hesse state, Germany) will be staffed by nearly 700 US and other NATO personnel. Meanwhile, reports emerged on 3 July that NATO member states have agreed to provide Ukraine with military aid worth EUR 40bn (USD 43bn) in 2025.
AID: The developments underscore efforts to ensure the military bloc’s co-operation with Kyiv despite the fact that Ukrainian membership remains a remote prospect for the foreseeable future. The measures also demonstrate the alliance’s attempts to safeguard the provision of aid to Ukraine against political changes in Europe, such as the surge in far-right parties, as well as the US presidential election in November.
AID: Elsewhere, the US Department of Defense (DoD) announced on 3 July additional military aid to Ukraine worth over USD 2.3bn. The support includes artillery, additional air defence interceptor missiles and anti-tank weapons valued at up to USD 150m. At the same time, USD 2.2 bn was allocated for purchasing interceptors for Patriot and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS). Ultimately, we asses that the provision of air defence capabilities to Ukraine will almost certainly remain crucial in the coming months.
CHINA: Reports emerged on 2 July that unspecified Chinese and Russian companies are developing an attack drone similar to an Iranian model frequently used to strike Ukraine. Unnamed European officials stated that the firms held talks in 2023 on replicating Iran’s Shahed unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV); they allegedly began developing and testing a prototype this year ahead of a shipment to Russia. The Chinese drones have not yet been used in Ukraine. At least two of the insiders disclosed that several countries believe that supplying Moscow drones for attack purposes would count as the provision of lethal aid.
CHINA: The US reportedly assesses that China is considering whether to send fully built UAVs to Russia and is transferring kits that can be converted into attack drones in the meantime. However, an unspecified person familiar with the matter stated that Washington DC still does not conclude that Beijing is sending lethal aid to Moscow but acknowledged that other countries possibly have different views. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on 13 June that his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, promised him during a phone call that his country would not sell weapons to Russia. However, Zelensky did not specify when this interaction took place.
CHINA: While the reports of Russo-Chinese collaboration on attack drones cannot be confirmed, it would mark an inflection point in their defence ties and a break in Beijing’s self-declared neutrality in the conflict. Our assessment remains that the credible risk of Western sanctions against China will likely deter Beijing from openly providing lethal aid to Moscow in the coming months. Ultimately, if it is proven that Chinese and Russian firms have indeed developed such UAVs, Western punitive measures would highly likely follow.

FORECAST

NEGOTIATIONS: A senior aide of President Zelensky, Andriy Yermak, reiterated on 2 July that Ukraine is not ready to compromise with Russia and cede any territory to end the war. Nevertheless, Yermak disclosed that Kyiv would listen to any advice on how to reach a ‘just peace’ in the conflict. He insisted that the Ukrainian leadership is not ready to compromise on key issues and values, such as independence, freedom, democracy, territorial integrity and sovereignty. This aligns with our ongoing assessment that Kyiv will highly likely remain opposed to making any territorial concessions to Russia in the coming months.

The former US president and current presidential candidate, Donald Trump, is reportedly considering a deal that would rule out further eastwards NATO expansion – specifically concerning Ukraine and Georgia. Politico reported this on 2 July, citing two Trump-aligned national security experts who also claimed that this plan would involve talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin over how much Ukrainian territory Moscow can retain. However, Trump recently stated in a presidential debate that Russia keeping occupied Ukrainian regions is unacceptable (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 1 July 2024). Ultimately, it remains uncertain if this deal would be official policy under a Trump administration. However, it would almost certainly mark a significant change in the US’ stance on Ukraine and NATO enlargement if enacted. Territorial concessions to Russia and the inability to join the military alliance would almost certainly be unfavourable conditions for Ukraine, but positively received by Moscow.

Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán pushed Zelensky for a quick ceasefire on 2 July during his first visit to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Orbán stated that he had asked the Ukrainian president to consider whether a cessation of hostilities would possibly speed up peace negotiations to end the war. The Hungarian prime minister is widely regarded as the European leader closest to Putin; he has also routinely blocked, delayed or undermined EU efforts to aid Ukraine and sanction Russia. We assess that Ukraine is highly unlikely to entertain a ceasefire in the coming months due to concerns that this would allow Russian forces to regroup and renew aggression at a later date.

Jul 03.

*US-Ukraine: Sustained aid to Ukraine will face policy stagnation, despite short-term funding. On 2 July, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced a USD 2.3bn security assistance package for Ukraine. The package will include air defence interceptors, anti-tank weapons and other critical munitions taken directly from US inventories. Lloyd also noted that the US signed a ten-year bilateral security agreement with Ukraine on 24 April. In the short term, it is likely that the Biden administration will look to strengthen the US’ partnership with Kyiv ahead of November’s presidential election, particularly during the NATO summit (9-11 July) in the capital Washington DC. However, Biden’s ability to support Ukraine without an act of Congress will likely be rendered limited due to the finite funds available within the presidential drawdown authority (which funded this package). Funding limits will be further exacerbated due to likely policy stagnation facing the FY2025 defence authorisation bill in the Senate in the short term. As such, we assess that continued large-scale aid to Ukraine will likely be stymied by partisan-fuelled stagnation in Congress in the long term.

Jul 02.

*Ukraine: Default, extension of repayment moratorium would deteriorate long-term economic recovery. On 1 July, The Economist reported that Ukraine has until 1 August to reach a deal on its debt repayments with its commercial creditors to avoid default. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, private bondholders agreed to a two-year moratorium of bond repayments ending in August. Private bondholders recently rejected Kyiv’s proposal to reduce its debt obligations by 60%, countering with a proposal for a 22% reduction. Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko still expressed hope that a compromise can be reached by August. Without a deal, Kyiv is left with two options: re-negotiating an extension of the bond repayment moratorium or defaulting. Both scenarios would prevent Ukraine from having to find new fiscal resources earmarked for debt reimbursement that could possibly be re-allocated to war financing. However, defaulting or extending the moratorium would likely increase borrowing costs and restrict Ukraine’s access to capital markets. This would complicate Ukraine’s ability to finance its reconstruction. As such, we assess that this would severely degrade the country’s long-term economic resilience.

Jul 01.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

OFFENSIVES: Ukraine has replaced Yuriy Sodol as commander of the joint forces; this likely indicates growing concerns over the extent of Ukrainian casualties in recent months
STRIKES: Russian forces continue to launch sporadic Iskandr-M and Iskandr-K ballistic and cruise missile strikes across Ukraine
BLACK SEA: Russia’s Ministry of Defence claimed that it had observed an uptick in US drone flights over the Black Sea and ordered unspecified steps to counter such ‘provocations’, sustaining risks of isolated incidents in the region
FORECAST: The US presidential debate this week indicated little change in both candidates’ respective stances on Ukraine, but the upcoming election will prove pivotal to the future of the war
OFFENSIVES: The New York Times reported on 27 June that, throughout May, Russian forces sustained an average of over 1,000 casualties (both killed and wounded) per day. UK Defence Intelligence assessed an average daily casualty rate of 1,200, which it assessed as being the highest of the war to date. Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed on 30 June that the ratio of soldiers killed on the battlefield stands at one to six in Ukraine’s favour along the Kharkiv and Donetsk axes. However, we cannot confirm this. Despite the extremely high casualty rate in May, Ukrainian and US intelligence indicate that Russia continues to recruit between 25,000-30,000 new military personnel per month. As we have previously assessed, this means that even these high casualty rates are currently broadly sustainable.
BAKHMUT: At the northern part of the Bakhmut line near Siversk (Donetsk oblast), the Russian MoD claimed on 27 June that their forces had seized the village of Rozdolivka, located seven miles (12km) south of Siversk, though we cannot confirm this. Geolocated footage published on 27 June also indicates that Russian forces have marginally advanced on the eastern outskirts of Bilohorivka, located around seven miles (11km) north-east of Siversk.
BAKHMUT: Further south around Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut), Russian forces continue small-scale attacks in a bid to make progress towards the settlement. Spokesperson of the Ukrainian Khortytsia Grouping of Forces, Nazar Voloshyn, reported on 27 June that Ukrainian forces have pushed out the majority of Russian forces from the eastern micro-district of Chasiv Yar on the eastern side of the Siverskyi-Donets-Donbas canal. However, geolocated footage from 28 June indicates that Russian forces have advanced towards the concrete plant in the microdistrict. Despite Voloshyn’s statement, this would indicate that Russian forces are still able to operate in the area, but could realistically be struggling to gain a permanent foothold.
BAKHMUT: At the southern end of the Bakhmut axis, near Toretsk (Donetsk oblast), Russian forces are likely making a small number of limited advances. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on 30 June that its forces had advanced via an underground tunnel to seize an unspecified Ukrainian strongpoint on the eastern outskirts of Pivnichne. The town is located around five miles (8km) north-west of the outskirts of Horlivka (Donetsk oblast) and remains a heavily fortified area. Ukrainian commentator Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on 30 June that Russian forces have advanced up to 1.6 miles (2.6km) deep and 3.4 miles (5.6km) wide into the area and reportedly met little resistance when advancing towards Pivdenne, located just south of Pivnichne. While we cannot confirm the extent of Russian advances, such reporting does indicate that Ukrainian forces are likely stretched more thinly on this sector; Russian forces will likely seek to exploit this circumstance by pressing attacks in the coming weeks.
DONETSK: Geolocated footage published on 27 June indicates that Russian forces advanced south of Yasnobrodivka and are pushing at various points elsewhere along the frontline due west of Avdiivka. Russian forces have also continued to achieve limited advances west of Donetsk city itself. Geolocated footage from 27 June indicates advances south of Kostyantynivka, located roughly 18 miles (29km) south-west of Donetsk city. Meanwhile, Geolocated footage from 28 June confirmed limited Russian advances in central Krasnohorivka, located south-west of Donetsk city.
KHARKIV: Ukrainian forces continue to launch limited counter-attacks in central Vovchansk, where fighting remains intense and central areas remain highly contested. Geolocated footage from 28 June indicated that Ukrainian forces have continued to make limited advances in the centre of the town, with Ukrainian officers reporting in recent days that the situation along the front has stabilised. However, geolocated footage from 30 June also indicated that Russian forces made limited advances in the area as well, indicating a back-and-forth dynamic as neither side can achieve a sustainable tactical advantage.
KHARKIV: Ukrainian sources at the Vovchansk frontline reported on 29 June that Ukrainian forces have encircled elements of Russia’s 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade that are trapped within the aggregate plant in the town. While we cannot confirm whether they are trapped, Ukrainian sources claim that their forces are not storming the plant at present to avoid unnecessary casualties; it remains a realistic scenario that Russian forces would be able to escape in any case, given the relatively thin Ukrainian hold over the surrounding region.
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Ukrainian forces are counter-attacking near Kreminna (Luhansk oblast) and have successfully retaken some positions south and west of Kreminna in recent days. Geolocated footage published on 28 and 29 June confirms some advances in the Serebryanske forest area south of the town, while Mashovets claimed on 28 June that Ukrainian forces have advanced 0.9 miles (1.5km) near Terny and Tampolivka, both located around 11 miles (18km) west of Kreminna. However, geolocated footage published on 30 June also indicated that Russian forces have advanced further north, near the village of Stelmakhivka, located 19 miles (31km) south-east of Kupiansk (Kharkiv oblast).
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: Russian forces undertook a limited strike on 28 June, launching a likely Iskandr-M ballistic missile (possibly armed with cluster munitions) against Odesa oblast. Russia’s MoD claimed this Iskandr-M strike hit a Ukrainian S-300 air defence system in Velykodolynske (Odesa oblast). This attack was followed overnight on 28-29 June by ten Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences successfully intercepted all of these drones over Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv and Vinnytsia oblasts. The large number of locations for such a limited number of drones almost certainly indicates this was a limited attack likely designed to keep the pressure on Ukrainian air defences between larger attacks.
STRIKES: Overnight on 29-30 June, Russian forces launched another Iskandr-M ballistic missile, which the Russian MoD claims hit a train that was unloading military equipment near Ukraine (Zaporizhzhia oblast). However, Ukrainian officials claimed that the strike hit an unspecified ‘critical infrastructure facility’ in the region, reporting damage but no casualties. While we cannot confirm this, Russian forces have sporadically sought to target railway infrastructure in eastern Ukraine, likely aimed at disrupting Ukrainian logistics and the distribution of Western military aid. As we have previously assessed, however, there is little indication to suggest that Russia intends to expand targeting of industrial or civilian rail infrastructure in Western Ukraine in the short term, though it remains an ongoing risk.
STRIKES: On the evening of 30 June, Russian forces launched two Iskandr-K cruise missiles at the capital Kyiv (Kyiv municipality, Ukraine). While air defences shot both of them down, debris caused damage to various buildings in the Obolonskyi district of the capital. The timing of the attack (in the evening rather than overnight) underscores latent collateral damage risks for civilians who were outside at that time.
STRIKES: Between 27 and 28 June, Ukrainian forces launched a series of drone attacks against critical oil infrastructure inside Russia, resulting in a fire at an oil depot in Tambov oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that air defences intercepted 12 drones over Byransk oblast, though Ukrainian forces likely succeeded in hitting several critical sites. Russian opposition outlet Astra specifically reported that Ukrainian drones also hit the Kremniy El microelectronics factory in Bryansk city (Bryansk oblast) overnight on 27 June, which is one of the most significant producers of microelectronic components for military equipment in Russia.
STRIKES: Ukrainian forces also reportedly struck the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant in Lipetsk oblast during a drone strike on 30 June. Unconfirmed reports indicate that seven Ukrainian drones hit the plant, causing a fire. Meanwhile, the Russian authorities reported that air defences intercepted nine drones over the region. The plant is a large producer of steel, and this latest attack is likely the fifth such attack in recent months, underscoring that production assets remain a high-priority target for Ukrainian forces amid their wider campaign to undermine Russia’s military-industrial production and logistics.
STRIKES: On 1 July, Russia’s MoD reported that Ukrainian forces launched 36 drones against Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk oblasts and that they were all intercepted. We cannot confirm this at time of writing.
STRIKES: On 28 June, Ukraine’s Centre for Strategic Communications claimed that Ukrainian forces have damaged or destroyed over 30 Russian military aircraft since the beginning of 2024. While we cannot confirm this, Ukraine claims it has damaged or destroyed nine Su-25s, 13 Su-34s, two Su-35s, one Su-57, two MiG-31s, two A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft, one Il-22M11 airborne command post aircraft and one Tu-22M3 strategic bomber. The centre did not specify what proportion of these casualties were caused by Ukrainian air defence interceptions or drone strikes against airbases. Nevertheless, Ukraine has increasingly prioritised targeting Russian aircraft, air defences and airbases in recent months, likely in a bid to not only undermine Russia’s aviation capabilities and ability to conduct strikes but also to prepare for the arrival of its own F-16s later this year.
STRIKES: The head of Ukraine’s state-owned defence enterprise Ukroboronprom, Herman Smetanin, stated on 29 June that Ukraine has launched serial production of long-range drones with a range of over 621 miles (1,000km). Ukraine has been employing large numbers of long-range drones to attack key infrastructure, including both oil refineries as well as airbases. The furthest drone attack yet carried out by Ukrainian forces targeted assets in the Republic of Tatarstan (Russia), around 750 miles (1,200km) from Ukraine. Serial production of long-range drones will allow Ukraine to continue its current asymmetric strategic strike campaign across European Russia and as far as western Siberia.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

BLACK SEA: On 28 June, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that it had observed an uptick in US drone flights over the Black Sea and ordered unspecified steps to counter such ‘provocations’. The ministry said the unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) conduct reconnaissance missions and find targets for strikes using Western high-precision weapons supplied to Ukraine. It remains uncertain what actions (if any) Russia intends to take to counter such drone operations, with such messaging likely intended to pressure the US and its allies to limit their presence in the Black Sea and their military support for Ukraine.
BLACK SEA: According to the Russian MoD, these drone flights indicate the growing involvement of the US and NATO states in the war and elevate the risk of direct confrontation between NATO assets and Russian forces. A Russian fighter jet and a US MQ-9 reaper drone collided in the airspace over the Black Sea in March 2023 (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 15 March 2023). The incident did not result in an escalation (as we forecast). Nevertheless, the Black Sea will highly likely remain a contested zone carrying risks of accidental confrontation and/or miscalculation between NATO allies and Russian forces in the coming months. In light of this, an incident is a realistic possibility.
AID: Reports emerged on 27 June that Israel and the US are discussing the provision of up to eight Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine. While details of the plan are not finalised, it would likely involve the equipment first being sent from Israel to the US before being transferred to Ukraine. Israel said in April that it would start the process of retiring its old Patriot batteries and replacing them with more advanced capabilities. However, Israel has yet to discontinue the use of its batteries at time of writing due to concerns of an escalation with Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hizballah militant group.
AID: Ukraine is estimated to have at least four Patriot systems supplied by Germany and the US; the delivery of several more would significantly bolster Ukraine’s air defence capabilities. However, the initiative appears to hinge on Israel’s assessment of whether the systems are needed to counter Lebanese Hizballah. As such, it remains unclear if such support will arrive in Ukraine. Even if Israel were to action the provision of the equipment, a decision to send them first to the US would highly likely delay Ukraine receiving the Patriot systems.
PROLIFERATION: Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on 28 June that Russia should resume the production of shorter and intermediate-range nuclear-capable missiles and consider where to deploy them. Putin noted the US withdrawal from the Cold War-era arms control Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty in 2019; the US asserted that Moscow was violating the accord as grounds for the withdrawal. Putin claimed that Moscow pledged not to deploy such missiles but that the US had resumed their production and then used assets in exercises in Denmark and dispatched them to the Philippines. Ultimately, the latest statements reflect our ongoing assessment that Russia is heightening its nuclear rhetoric to undermine Western support for Ukraine as part of its ongoing reflexive control campaign.
PROLIFERATION: On 30 June, the Chief of Belarus’ General Staff, Pavel Muraveiko, said his country would use Russian-deployed tactical nuclear weapons if Belarusian sovereignty or independence was threatened. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka said in late April that ‘several dozen’ Russian nuclear weapons had been deployed in Belarus. Russia nevertheless retains total authority and control over any such tactical nuclear capabilities in Belarus; the Belarusian government does not. This would mean that Belarusian forces would not be able to launch nuclear assets without Russian authorisation. Our nuclear escalation threat forecast remains unchanged; tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus are highly unlikely to be deployed against neighbouring NATO states or Ukraine in the foreseeable future.
NATO: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged on 30 June that the US is not prepared to invite Ukraine to join NATO in the near term. Zelensky stated that if the US is afraid of irritating Putin with such a decision, Kyiv asks that Washington DC give as much support as possible to protect against Russian aggression. We assess that Ukraine is highly unlikely to join the military bloc in the near term. This will likely modestly strain Ukraine’s ties vis-à-vis the US over the longer term due to perceptions that Washington DC is too cautious of a Russian escalation.

FORECAST

NEGOTIATIONS: On 27 June, former US president Donald Trump, who is seeking a second term in office, debated incumbent Joe Biden. The debate had a limited focus on foreign policy, though Trump admitted that Putin’s demand to keep Russian-occupied Ukrainian regions as a condition for ending the war is unacceptable. For further analysis on Putin’s ‘conditions’ for peace, please see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 17 June 2024.

Trump also claimed that he will have the war ‘settled’ as president-elect before possibly taking office in January 2025; this is highly unlikely even if he does win the election. He presented no plan and it remains highly unlikely that Trump could end the war so quickly in any case. These remarks are likely designed to create the impression that a Trump presidency would have a stronger foreign policy than Biden’s. For further analysis on a potential Trump peace plan, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 27 June 2024.

Meanwhile, Biden reiterated his position on the war, implying that Russia invaded Ukraine for imperialistic objectives and stating that Putin wants to re-establish Russian authority in Ukrainian regions that were once part of the Soviet Union. Biden also cautioned about the prospect of Russia wanting to conquer other countries if successful in Ukraine, namely Poland. The debate highlighted the two presidential hopefuls’ views on continued US aid for Ukraine, with Biden emphasising the importance of such assistance. At the same time, Trump seemed to criticise Washington DC’s support for Kyiv. Our assessment remains that a second Biden presidency would be much more likely to ensure the long-term provision of US support for Ukraine.

Following the US debate, on 28 June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky disclosed that Kyiv is preparing a ‘clear and detailed plan’ for the end of the war which will be ready this year. Zelensky said that his country will present its vision regarding energy, food security and the exchanges of prisoners of war (POWs) in the near future. These were among the topics discussed at a peace summit in Switzerland on 15 and 16 June. Zelensky emphasised the need to present a peace plan that the majority of the world will support, underscoring Kyiv’s determination to rally countries behind its terms for peace before eventually negotiating with Moscow, but also the growing international pressure on Kyiv amid increasingly polarised debates on Ukraine in the US.

According to Zelensky, Ukraine does not envisage direct negotiations with Russia, but rather the possibility of using the tripartite format used for the now-defunct Black Sea Grain Deal brokered by the UN and Turkey in 2022. Zelensky stated on 30 June that this model could be used for issues such as territorial integrity, energy and shipping. He also emphasised that Ukraine’s peace formula must form the basis of any possible peace negotiations. Zelensky cautioned that other forms of peace talks could encourage Russia to renew aggression at a later date. Ultimately, both sides will have to make compromises when discussions to end the war do take place, though neither side has indicated any readiness to compromise at this stage. This could realistically begin to change in 2025 if Trump wins the November election.

*Ukraine: Authorities thwart plot, demonstrate proactive counter-espionage capabilities. Earlier on 1 July, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported that it had detained a group of people who were preparing to stage riots and seize the parliament (the Verkhovna Rada) in the capital Kyiv. As reported by the authorities, the group was headed by an unnamed co-founder of an unspecified anti-Ukraine organisation. According to the SBU, the would-be perpetrators planned to declare their goal to remove the current military and political leadership of Ukraine at a supposedly peaceful gathering in the capital. The agency said people involved in the plot wanted to disguise the real purpose of the assembly from attendees. This highly likely suggests that the suspects were aware that there would be limited public support for their plot. Nevertheless, the development underscores the presence of domestic plots to destabilise Ukrainian government institutions, likely facilitated or directed by Russian intelligence. However, we assess that the Ukrainian authorities will highly likely continue to proactively monitor and thwart such subversive activities across the course of the conflict, including assassination plots.

*Global: Security breach points to sustained security risks via software supply chain. On 28 June, the software company TeamViewer disclosed that its corporate information technology (IT) network was breached by the Russian state-sponsored group ‘APT29’. The group reportedly used the credentials of an employee’s account to infiltrate the network. The breach was first discovered on 26 June following the identification of abnormal activity on the compromised account. Despite the initial infection, TeamViewer stated that its network segmentation measures prevented the attack from exposing customer data and spreading to customer environments. This highlights the importance of implementing strict security policies for third-party vendors. TeamViewer was previously breached in 2016 by the Chinese state-sponsored group ‘Winnti’ in an espionage operation that likely aimed to bolster China’s technological development. Additionally, the company provides services for over 640,000 devices globally, making the organisation and its downstream highly attractive targets for state-sponsored cyber operations. We assess that the latest incident points to the sustained security risks stemming from the software supply chain. (Source: Sibylline)

04 Jul 24. Ukraine navy chief says Russia is losing Crimean hub in Black Sea.

Summary
Ukraine navy chief says Russia losing control of Crimea hub
Sea drone and missile attacks compromise its capabilities
Most Russian warships have rebased at a distance, he says
Ukraine’s tactics allowed it to open new export corridor
Russian land forces have the upper hand

The Russian navy’s Black Sea Fleet has been forced to rebase nearly all its combat-ready warships from occupied Crimea to other locations, and its main naval hub is becoming ineffectual because of attacks by Kyiv, Ukraine’s navy chief said.

Vice-Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa said Ukrainian missile and naval drone strikes had caused heavy damage to the Sevastopol base, a logistics hub for repairs, maintenance, training and ammunition storage among other important functions for Russia.

“They were established over many decades, possibly centuries. And clearly they are now losing this hub,” Neizhpapa told Reuters in a rare interview in the port city of Odesa ahead of Ukraine Navy Day on Sunday.

More than 28 months since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Kyiv has dealt a series of stinging blows to Moscow in the Black Sea although Ukrainian ground troops are on the back foot across a sprawling front.

Ukraine, which has no major warships at its disposal, has used uncrewed naval boats packed with explosives to target Russian vessels, and pounded the fleet’s facilities and other military targets on Crimea with Storm Shadow and ATACM missiles.

“Almost all the main combat-ready ships have been moved by the enemy from the main base of the Black Sea Fleet, and the ships are kept in Novorossiisk, and some of them are kept in the Sea of Azov,” he said.

Russia’s Novorossiisk naval base on its eastern Black Sea coast lacks the extensive facilities of Crimea’s Sevastopol, which served as the storage and loading site for cruise missiles used by its warships to launch air strikes on Ukraine, he said.

“I understand that they are now trying to solve this problem in Novorossiisk,” he said, describing this as a “main issue” for the fleet.

Russia’s defence ministry did not respond to a Reuters request for comment on Neizhpapa’s remarks. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

04 Jul 24. Viktor Orban provokes EU anger with trip to meet Putin in Moscow.

The Hungarian prime minister has called on Volodymyr Zelensky to drop his demand for a Russian withdrawal before peace talks

Hungary’s prime minister has sparked anger in the EU by agreeing to meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow, in what appears to be an attempt to negotiate on Ukraine.

Viktor Orban’s trip was reported by an investigative journalist and confirmed by various EU and Hungarian officials, one of whom told Radio Free Europe it would be happening on Friday.

Mr Orban and the Russian president enjoy a close relationship, having met twice since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

However, the plan struck a nerve among European diplomats because of its timing. Mr Orban – who recently held talks with Volodymyr Zelensky, president of Ukraine – has just assumed the six-month rotating presidency of the bloc.

“The EU rotating presidency has no mandate to engage with Russia on behalf of the EU,” said Charles Michel, the European Council’s president.

“The European Council is clear: Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine is the victim. No discussions about Ukraine can take place without Ukraine.” (Source: Daily Telegraph)

04 Jul 24. Ukrainian Forces Deploy New Heavy FPV Drones with Enhanced Warheads. The Ukrainian military has begun using a new model of a heavy FPV attack drone capable of carrying a 5-kilogram warhead.

Heavy FPV drones with a 6-motor design were spotted in service with the 3rd Assault Brigade, or rather, its Terra attack drone unit.

The addition of two extra motors allowed the drones to carry a warhead weighing up to 5 kilograms, significantly increasing their destructive potential. According to the unit commander with the call sign “Abdullah,” the main purpose of the heavy drones is to destroy enemy fortifications, dugouts and buildings where enemy infantry is holed up.

Indeed, in the released video, these drones are used primarily to drive enemy manpower out of buildings and closed fortifications.

In the section about preparing drones for flight, where operators hang a warhead, they showed different types of munitions, including thermobaric and high-explosive fragmentation munitions weighing about 3 kilograms.

The combined tactics of using drones is also notable: the first drone, equipped with an explosive warhead, destroys the roof of a building, creating a “passage,” after which another drone with a thermobaric munition flies into it.

Terra’s fighters have launched a fundraiser for 100 heavy drones worth UAH4m. This suggests that the cost of each drone does not exceed UAH40,000. In general, the military and philanthropists have been paying considerable attention to heavy attack FPV drones since the end of last year. At that time, one of the most popular models was the Mammoth drone, developed by the Ukrainian company Escadrone. It had a classic 4-motor design and a 10-inch form factor. The Mammoth was a serial record holder for a long time, as it could carry up to 4 kg of payload. With such a warhead, the drone can cover a distance of 12 kilometers. However, with a smaller warhead of 1.5 kg, the maximum distance increased to 30 km. (Source: UAS VISION/MILITARNYI)

03 Jul 24. Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine. Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announces additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This includes the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package valued at up to $150 m to provide Ukraine with key capabilities, including: additional air defense interceptors; artillery and other fires, and anti-tank weapons.

In addition, DoD is announcing a significant package of air defense interceptors using approximately $2.2bn in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funds. This funding will be used to purchase interceptors for PATRIOT and NASAMS air defense systems for Ukraine. As previously announced, the Biden Administration plans to accelerate delivery of these munitions by re-sequencing upcoming Foreign Military Sales deliveries for Ukraine. As a result, Ukraine will be provided with the interceptors it urgently needs to protect its people and critical infrastructure against Russia’s aerial attacks.

The PDA package is the Biden Administration’s sixtieth tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.

The capabilities in the PDA package include:

Missiles for HAWK air defense systems;
Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
81mm mortar rounds;
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
Small arms ammunition and grenades;
Demolitions equipment and munitions;
Tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
Tactical air navigation systems and aircraft support equipment; and,
Spare parts, maintenance, and other field and ancillary equipment.

The United States will continue to work together with some 50 Allies and partners to ensure Ukraine’s brave defenders receive the critical capabilities needed to fight Russian aggression. (Source: U.S. DoD)

03 Jul 24. Czech military aid to Ukraine from army stores reaches $288m, defence ministry says. The Czech Defence Ministry said on Wednesday that the country donated equipment from its army storage, including aircraft and ammunition, worth 6.75bn crowns ($288.42m) to Ukraine as of the end of May.

It said the Czechs have so far sent eight aircraft, including two this year. Supplies also included 94,860 artillery ammunition, including 10,000 this year.

Previous supplies include 62 tanks, 131 infantry fighting vehicles, 26 chemical reconnaissance vehicles, 16 pieces of air defence vehicles, 13 howitzers, 12 multiple rocket launchers, and various ammunition and small arms.

The Czechs have been among the staunch backers of Ukraine and the first to send heavy equipment soon after Russia’s full invasion started in February 2022.

Apart from donating from their army storage, they have arranged much larger supplies of heavy equipment and ammunition with funding from allies and Ukraine itself.

This includes half a million of artillery shells to be delivered under the so-called Czech initiative this year, or hundreds of pieces of heavy equipment including tanks.

The government last week approved a $37m national contribution to the Czech-led artillery ammunition scheme. ($1 = 23.4030 Czech crowns)

(Source: Reuters)

02 Jul 24. U.S. Is Fully Committed to Ukraine’s Defense, Pentagon Official Says. The United States is fully committed to continuing its support for Ukraine as that country battles for survival in the face of Russian aggression, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said today. Ryder spoke after Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov met with Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III in the Pentagon. Austin told Umerov the United States will soon announce a new security assistance package for Ukraine that’s valued at approximately $2.3 bn.

The package will be a combination of presidential drawdown authority and Ukraine security assistance initiative funding. Ryder said the package will provide urgently needed air defense interceptors to protect Ukrainian cities and civilians from Russia’s unrelenting aerial attacks. It will also provide artillery and antitank weapons to support the Ukraine’s frontline needs.

Umerov provided Austin with an update on the dynamics on the ground in Ukraine. “What we continue to see on the ground is it remains a tough fight,” Ryder said. “Russia continues to attempt to take ground, and the Ukrainians have done a good job of holding the line.”

The Russians took advantage of the break in U.S. funding to Ukraine to try and take ground from the country. While they took some territory, it was at enormous cost, and they “really did not accomplish that much in terms of the amount of geography,” Ryder said. “So, what we see now is the Ukrainians, in large part empowered by the security assistance that’s been rushed in, continue to hold the line. We will continue to support them in their efforts to defend themselves.”

Ryder also gave a preview of next week’s NATO summit in Washington. The meeting marks the 75th anniversary of the defense pact. “The secretary will join President Joe Biden celebrating this milestone while advancing key policy priorities,” the general said.

Priorities at the summit will include ensuring the implementation of new NATO plans for critical deterrence and defense, enhancing long-term support for Ukraine, and fostering Ukraine’s future NATO membership.

During the summit, the secretary will work to ramp up defense industrial production and ensure adequate defense investments from allies. He also will work to deepen practical cooperation between NATO and its Indo-Pacific partners, including Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, Ryder said. “Since its creation 75 years ago, NATO has been the greatest defensive alliance in human history. Next week summit underscores the unwavering commitment to NATO, and the alliance’s critical role in maintaining global security and stability.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

03 Jul 24. NATO members agree €40bn financial pledge for Ukraine – diplomat. NATO allies have agreed to fund military aid for Ukraine with 40 bn euros ($43.05bn) next year, a Western European diplomat told Reuters on Wednesday, one week before the alliance’s leaders are set to meet in Washington. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg had asked member states to keep up military aid for Ukraine at the same level as in the years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, adding up to some 40bn euros ($43bn) per year. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)

02 Jul 24. Skydio Hiring Team in Ukraine Amid Strategy Shift. U.S. dronemaker Skydio said it has started hiring employees in Ukraine, a first step in an effort to expand its business there. CEO Adam Bry described the work in an interview with Defense News Wednesday, hours before he testified before Congress.

“I’ve never met drone users as sophisticated as the folks in Ukraine,” Bry said. “We want a team there.”

For now, the hires are in the single digits, with employees focused on engineering and customer support. Bry said he could see Skydio manufacturing drones in the country later on, but thinks building smaller components — like the equipment that helps prevent jamming — is more realistic at first.

The war in Ukraine is the first to feature widespread use of small, commercial style drones. In the last two years, it’s become a sandbox for companies around the world trying to test their equipment. U.S. firms including AeroVironment to Shield AI have sent their products to help defend Ukraine and see how they perform in intense electronic warfare environments.

That said, most of the drones used in Ukraine so far have been made in China, the world’s dominant manufacturer in the sector.

Bry went as far to say that Ukraine’s needs are driving Skydio’s product development, even when that doesn’t overlap with the U.S. government.

His company’s main defense contract is with the Army’s Short Range Reconnaissance program, which Skydio won in 2021. Defense firms are now competing for that contract’s second iteration, to be selected in 2025, and Skydio is putting forward its new X10D drone to do so.

Ukraine is also interested in that drone. Its Ministry of Interior has formally requested “thousands” of them — though Bry wouldn’t specify how many — atop the thousand or so drones Skydio has already sent Kyiv since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.

The requirements laid out by the Army are similar to what Ukraine needs, Bry said, but they’re not one for one.

“This has been a shift in strategy for us,” he said. “Where there’s discrepancy, we’re prioritizing what we’re seeing in Ukraine.”

The main difference between the two sets of requirements is in resiliency. Ukraine’s biggest need is for drones that can counter intense Russian jamming. That is not what the short-range reconnaissance program has focused on to this point, Bry said.

Still his argument is that Ukraine is the “proving ground” for small drones. If they can survive there, that should be a good sales pitch for the U.S. military as well. But that’s not guaranteed, Bry acknowledged.

“It’s a risk from a business standpoint,” he said. “But I think it’s a risk worth taking.” (Source: UAS VISION/Defense News)

02 Jul 24. Austin Underscores U.S. Commitment to Ukraine in Meeting With Counterpart. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III previewed a new military assistance package for Ukraine today as he met with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov at the Pentagon.

The package, valued at more than $2.3 bn, includes additional air defense interceptors and other critical munitions.

The air defense capabilities will be delivered to Ukraine’s front lines under an accelerated timeline enabled by the Pentagon’s recent announcement that it would resequence deliveries and some foreign military sales to other allies and partners to ensure Ukraine has what it needs at a critical point in the war.

“Ukraine is in a tough fight and has been ever since the start of Putin’s reckless war of choice,” Austin said. “The Kremlin continues to intensify its bombardment of your cities and civilians. But I continue to be impressed by the skill of your forces, and your troops continue to fend off Russia’s attacks with grit, ingenuity and courage.”

The secretary underscored the United States’ resolve in assisting Ukraine in the face of these challenges.

“Make no mistake, Ukraine is not alone,” Austin said. “The United States will never waver, and our support alongside some 50 allies and partners will continue to provide the critical capabilities that Ukraine needs to push back Russian aggression today and to deter Russian aggression tomorrow.”

The two leaders met as NATO allies prepare for next week’s summit of member states in Washington.

Austin said the allies will take steps “to build a bridge for NATO membership for Ukraine” during the summit. The alliance marks its 75th anniversary this year.

The allies are also expected to formalize further steps to meet Ukraine’s long-term defense requirements.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said last month the group has agreed to a plan for how NATO will lead the coordination of future security assistance and training for Ukraine’s armed forces.

The effort will involve nearly 700 NATO personnel and partner countries, who will oversee training for the Ukrainian armed forces at facilities in allied countries. The alliance will also plan and coordinate security assistance for Ukraine, manage the transfer and repair of equipment, and support the long-term development of Ukraine’s armed forces.

“These efforts do not make NATO party to the conflict,” Stoltenberg said following a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels in June. “But they will enhance our support to Ukraine to uphold its right to self-defense.”

Today’s meeting follows the signing of a 10-year bilateral security agreement by President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to address Ukraine’s security needs into the future.

Austin said that agreement, which was signed during the Group of Seven summit in Italy last month, further reflects the United States’ “strong and enduring support for Ukraine.”

“I look forward to discussing more ways to meet Ukraine’s immediate security needs and to build a future force to ward off more Russian aggression,” Austin said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

02 Jul 24. Ukrainian Brigade Destroys Russian Convoy in Donetsk Region.

Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed a convoy of at least seven Russian vehicles in the occupied Donetsk region, according to a statement from Ukraine’s 79th Independent Airborne Assault Brigade. The brigade posted a video on its Telegram channel documenting the attack in the area of Novomykhailivka.

The 62-second video, set to the song “I Am the Fire” by Ghost Monroe, showcases aerial views of the convoy being struck from different angles and times of day. The footage reveals multiple infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) being hit and exploding. The brigade described the event as “a real portal to hell,”.

The post detailed how the operation involved drone operators, anti-tank gunners, and sappers who strategically placed mines. Despite some Russian soldiers managing to take shelter in a house, Ukrainian aviation forces ensured no escape, hitting targets with precision.

Ukrainian internal affairs adviser Anton Gerashchenko also shared the video on his X (formerly Twitter) account, emphasizing the impact of the attack. He noted, “Powerful footage: several IFVs were burned down in a small area, one vehicle continues to move with dead Russian soldiers right on its armor.” (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

01 Jul 24. Russia is studying an intact U.S. ATACMS missile guidance system, says RIA. Russian forces have captured an intact guidance system from a long-range U.S.-made ATACMS missile and are studying the American military technology, Russia’s RIA state news agency said on Monday.

Video footage released by RIA showed an unidentified weapons expert, with his face concealed by a balaclava, examining what he said was a guidance system from an Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) weapon apparently shot down by Russian forces. Reuters could not verify the equipment shown in the video.

The expert is seen showing labels on the back of the missile’s GPS guidance system, which indicate it originated in a U.S. army store in Alabama. He explains that the captured hardware allows Russia to study how the missiles are controlled during flight.

Viktor Litovkin, a retired Russian colonel, told the online Lenta.ru news portal that Moscow would try to identify any weak spots and use the information it gleaned to improve its ability to shoot down ATACMS missiles.

“We can reconfigure our surface-to-air missile systems that are supposed to shoot it (the missile) down and we can reconfigure and fine-tune our electronic warfare systems against this missile,” Litovkin was quoted as saying.

Washington began supplying Ukraine with the long-range ATACMS several months ago, after two years of having rebuffed requests from Kyiv for weapons with such a range. The missiles can strike up to 300 km (186 miles) away, around double the range of the HIMARS systems that the United States began supplying Ukraine in 2022.

Portugal fans rejoice, Slovenia breaks hearts

Moscow has condemned Washington for supplying the weapons, which it says is an escalatory move. Russia says the United States assists Ukraine in firing them, which Washington denies. (Source: Reuters)

02 Jul 24. Ukrainian air base under fire as Russia aims at F-16 arrivals.

Summary
Ukraine is expected to start receiving F-16s this month
Kyiv has not said where the aircraft will be based
Moscow has targeted airfields it believes will house them

Explosions reverberated across the pre-dawn sky as Ukrainian air defences fended off a Russian attack on this small city in western Ukraine, home to an important air base and a frequent target of Moscow’s strikes.

Hours after the assault, the tidy streets of Starokostiantyniv had returned to a semblance of normality.

But the June 27 attack was a stark reminder of the challenges Kyiv faces as it rebuilds its depleted air force and deploys the first U.S.-designed F-16s – fighter aircraft that Russia will be determined to ground or destroy.

The first planes are expected to arrive this month, and Ukraine hopes they will boost forces struggling to repel a Russian onslaught along the front line, which includes devastating glide bombs that F-16s could potentially disrupt.

Officials have not revealed where the F-16s will be based, but Moscow said after the strike on Starokostiantyniv last Thursday that it had targeted airfields it believed would house them.

The air base has come under frequent attack since the first days of Russia’s February 2022 invasion, including from drones and hypersonic missiles.

Residents of this historic military outpost of around 30,000 people, nicknamed Starkon, in Ukraine’s Khmelnytskyi region have learned to adjust to the constant danger.

“In short, it’s ‘fun’ to live here,” said city official and local culture expert Vasyl Muliar with a wry smile, speaking after the recent attack.

A Ukrainian air force spokesman said the strikes presented “certain difficulties”, but would not undermine the delivery of F-16s or their use in battle.

Officials are tight-lipped about details of attacks on objects such a military bases and critical infrastructure.

Military analysts said the Russians were probably targeting air base infrastructure such as runways and storage facilities to make getting F-16s airborne more difficult, and, when they arrive, the Western jets themselves.

The Ukrainian military, which is low on air-defence ammunition, is also likely to be forced to move the prized planes around airfields, said Justin Bronk, of the Royal United Services Institute.

“Any ground-based air defence coverage can be saturated if the Russians care enough to fire enough missiles at one target,” he said.

DEBRIS IN CHERRY TREES

After last Thursday’s attack, Governor Serhiy Tyurin said air defences had destroyed nine targets over his region. Shortly before it, the air force had warned residents that drones were headed toward Starokostiantyniv.

Local residents, careful not to divulge what might be considered sensitive military information, described living under the threat of being struck and amid the frequent roar of Ukrainian warplanes in the skies above.

Iryna Sapchuk, editor-in-chief of local newspaper Our City, said her parents’ home had been hit in a previous raid, damaging the roof and shed.

“They found debris from a missile in a cherry tree by the window,” she added.

As in many other towns and cities across Ukraine, people appeared eager to project a sense of resilience despite the danger of war and inconvenience of frequent power outages caused by Russian attacks on the energy system.

Road works continued as jets streaked overhead, while families and groups of teenagers cooled off at the local beach.

When she travels around Ukraine, Sapchuk said, she found it hard to cope without the noise of airplanes.

“It’s too quiet for me,” she joked, adding that the sound had become a comforting sign that Ukraine’s outnumbered pilots were putting up a fight.

Muliar, the local official, pointed to the city’s history as a 16th-century bastion of defence and, hundreds of years later, key nerve center for independence fighters of the fledgling Ukrainian People’s Republic after World War One. “This was always a centre of resistance.”

(Source: Reuters)

28 Jun 24. Belarus bolsters air defence forces along Ukrainian border. Belarus has deployed additional air defence forces to its border with Ukraine to protect “critical infrastructure facilities” due to increased Ukrainian drone activity in the area, a Belarusian military commander said on Saturday.

Belarus, an ally of Russia in the war with Ukraine, said earlier this week it had shot down a quadcopter that had illegally crossed the border from Ukraine “to collect information about the Belarusian border infrastructure”.

The situation in the airspace over the border remains tense, Andrei Severinchik, commander of the Belarusian Air Defence Forces, said on Saturday.

“We are ready to decisively use all available forces and means to protect our territory and the population of the Republic of Belarus from possible provocations in the airspace,” he said in a statement published on the Defence Ministry’s Telegram channel.

The Defence Ministry said earlier on Saturday it had information showing Ukraine had been moving more troops, weapons and military equipment to the northern Zhytomyr region, which borders Belarus.

There was no immediate comment from Ukraine. (Source: Google/Reuters)

28 Jun 24. The UK will work to identify, expose and counter Russian attempts to acquire military equipment from North Korea: UK statement at the UN Security Council.

Statement by UK Permanent Representative to the UN Ambassador Barbara Woodward at the UN Security Council meeting on North Korea.

Since 2006, this Council has adopted nine resolutions on the DPRK. All nine condemned the DPRK’s nuclear and ballistic missile activity. They called on the DPRK to cease this activity and imposed sanctions, including prohibiting the transfer of arms and related materiel between the DPRK and any UN Member State. All nine were unanimously adopted by this Council.

Russia has violated these resolutions repeatedly. There is now a continuous flow of cargo between Russia and the DPRK. This includes munitions and ballistic missiles, as reported by UN experts in April and our briefer today. As well as weapons and the flow of goods between Russia and the DPRK, the DPRK is also procuring refined petroleum from Russia, which is likely to exceed the UNSCR-mandated cap.

Russia does not even attempt to hide its behaviour. Russia brazenly vetoed the renewal of the 1718 Panel of Experts, and during President Putin’s visit to Pyongyang this month, Kim Jong-Un praised the active cooperation between the two countries, including in military affairs.

Colleagues, in return for the weapons, and Russia’s protection in the Council, DPRK is seeking trade and military assistance, in further circumvention of UN sanctions and increasing the risks to regional security and stability. These violations have serious consequences for ms of people worldwide.

North Korean missiles are being used, as we’ve heard today, in the destruction of Kharkiv, bringing misery, injury and death to Ukrainian civilians. Ammunition is helping Russia prolong its war, which continues to exact a heavy toll on women and children.

The DPRK built its missile programmes by diverting resources from the North Korean people. It continues to use forced labour. And by damaging the fabric of the non-proliferation regime, and reducing constraints on the DPRK’s military programmes, Russia’s actions are making the world a more dangerous place, for all countries.

The UK will work with all willing countries to identify, expose, and counter Russian attempts to acquire military equipment from DPRK, and to protect the global non-proliferation regime. It is an abuse of this organisation and its principles that Russia so openly and deliberately violates the UN sanctions regime, on top of its flagrant breach of the UN Charter in Ukraine. This is all unacceptable. All of us who believe in this Council must call Russia out clearly and must commit to working together to protect the UN, the non-proliferation system, and global peace and security. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

01 Jul 24. Russia Captures More Villages in Eastern Ukraine In latest Assault. Russia has claimed control over several villages in eastern Ukraine, pressing toward the strategic city of Toretsk in the embattled Donetsk region. This intensified offensive comes as Russian forces have maintained the upper hand over Kyiv’s troops on the battlefield for several months, capturing territories amidst heavy fighting and civilian casualties.

On Friday, Russia’s Defence Ministry announced the capture of Rozdolivka, a settlement in the Donetsk region. However, Ukrainian military reports indicate that intense combat continues around the area, with Ukrainian forces repelling numerous assaults. Concurrently, a Russian missile attack on a small town in southeastern Ukraine resulted in a deadly inferno, killing at least seven civilians, including three children.

Russian forces have also secured the settlement of Shumy, which lies less than 10 kilometers east of Toretsk. This mining town, with a pre-war population of around 32,000, had largely avoided major conflict until recent weeks when Moscow’s forces began a surprise advance. The Russian Defence Ministry stated that these successful actions have provided their troops with a more favorable tactical position.

Further north, Moscow reported the capture of Spirne, located near the border with the Lugansk region, and Novooleksandrivka, north-west of the occupied Ocheretyne. These locations are the furthest west terretories currently under Russian control in the Donetsk region.

The Ukrainian military’s General Staff reported on Friday that Russian forces had launched 19 attacks across a broad sector including Rozdolivka. Ukrainian soldiers successfully repelled 15 of these assaults, with four armed confrontations ongoing.

Russia’s advance along the extensive 1,000-km (600-mile) front line has seen the capture of numerous villages since the strategic town of Avdiivka fell in February. The prolonged conflict, now nearing its two-and-a-half-year mark, shows no signs of abating as Russian forces consolidate their gains in eastern Ukraine. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

01 Jul 24. Cuashub.com said today that Report: EOS Plans to Setup Production Facility in Ukraine.

According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and as reported by multiple media outlets, including Euromaidan Press, the Australian company Electro Optic Systems (EOS) plans to set up a production facility in Ukraine.

The Defense Ministry announced this after a meeting between Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Defense, Dmytro Klymenkov, Vice President of Sales and Business Development, Scott Hicks, and Marc Essig, Vice President of Global Sales and Marketing at EOS.

Last year, it was reported that three EOS “Slingers,” a 30mm weapon system, were being sent to Ukraine as part of a previously announced U.S. security assistance package.

The Slinger counter-drone system takes inspiration from the historical Slinger soldiers, famed for their precision in hurling small stones to defeat distant enemies. This Australian-made system effectively neutralizes modern drone threats with a single, lethal shot. It integrates a radar, a 30mm cannon with specialized ammunition, and EOS’s proprietary stabilization and pointing technology. Capable of tracking and engaging moving drones at distances beyond 800 meters, the Slinger is particularly suited for urban environments due to its unique ammunition. Drawing on lessons from conflict regions such as Ukraine, it addresses contemporary and emerging threats.

https://cuashub.com/en/content/report-eos-plans-to-setup-production-facility-in-ukraine/?utm_campaign=C-UAS%20Hub%20General&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8SxV9DlW0f_dqsABE8YT1xuCXkEdUq7It2gPG_O6zGYCttUg2_ShdeLllrBQhTgAIbo73kOM3SReR2vsajZGELmZUznY1Y_fC5KtkyEMUwgf_nm2M&_hsmi=313830069&utm_content=313830069&utm_source=hs_email (Source: https://cuashub.com/)

27 Jun 24. Russia’s summer offensive in Ukraine already underway.

It is understood that Russia’s summer offensive is well underway, with its push over the border into Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast in May thought to be its kickoff.

To all intents and purposes, Russia’s 2024 summer offensive in Ukraine has already begun as its forces continue to make small gains across areas of the frontline, following a larger incursion in the northeast towards Kharkiv in May this year.

However, it is understood that gains for Russia are relatively small, described as being segments of between 20km² to 60km² in separate pockets. Russian losses in June continue to keep pace with the record number of personnel killed and injured in May, which averaged 1,200 per day.

With the Russian offensive likely to persist for some time, its forces continue to sustain persistent combat casualties. To date, Russian forces are also sustaining around 1,200 casualties per day through June, it is understood.

Ukrainian casualties are a closely guarded secret, with President Volodymyr Zelensky’s concession in February 2024 that Ukrainian forces had sustained 30,000 killed in action unable to be verified.

At the start of May 2024, the senior military advisor of the UK Delegation to the Organisation for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE) Nicholas Aucott said that Russian casualties in Ukraine had exceeded 465,000 troops.

Since then, as Russia continues to make incremental gains west of Avdiivka and opened up a new northern offensive in the Kharkiv Oblast, an average daily casualty rate has pushed the number of Russian soldiers killed or wounded in action beyond 500,000 since February 2022.

No surprise on Russia’s summer offensive

While Russia’s summer offensive has not come as a surprise to officials, the fact that it saw the concentrated use of infantry, rather than including more armour in combined operations, was unexpected.

Nevertheless, 2024 continues to see Ukraine pressed onto the defensive, having conceded key battlegrounds in Avdiivka, while Chasiv Yar remains a key target for Russian forces. In late-2023, the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut was seized by Russia after months of sustained operations.

The six-month-long delay by the US in approving a key military funding and equipment package, eventually passed in April, is judged to be significantly responsible for the difficulties experienced by Ukraine in 2024. As a consequence, Ukrainian forces have been starved of ammunition, forcing them into tactical withdrawals.

It is thought that Ukraine’s decision to increase the scope of a new mobilisation law could help solve a growing recruitment crisis for forces, having also removed consular services for male fighting age Ukrainian nationals living overseas in a bid to force them to return home.

Some European countries have already said that they would assist Ukraine with the repatriation of Ukrainian fighting age males living in their territory.

On 26 June the US-based Institute for the Study of War published a Russia-Ukraine war update, stating that Russian forces had advanced northeast of Kupyansk amid “continued Russian offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line”. (Source: army-technology.com)

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