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Military And Security Developments
Jun 17.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
- OFFENSIVES: Ukraine’s defence ministry has confirmed that its forces are still waiting for US military aid to arrive at scale, which will further delay efforts to impact the frontline in Kyiv’s favour seriously
- KHARKIV: Conflicting reports in recent days indicate that Russian forces have likely advanced towards an aggregate plant in Vovchansk, though Ukrainian forces are threatening to cut said forces off
- ENERGY: Ukraine’s grid operator, Ukrenergo, warned on 16 June that long daily power outages are expected until the end of July due to repairs on reactor units at nuclear power plants
- OFFENSIVES: The Associated Press (AP) published an interview with Ukrainian First Deputy Defence Minister Ivan Havrylyuk on 15 June, during which he confirmed that Ukrainian forces are still waiting for the majority of US military aid that was unfrozen in April. Havrylyuk stated that artillery shell transfers have started to offset Ukraine’s shortages, reducing Ukraine’s artillery disadvantage from seven-to-one to five-to-one. Nevertheless, shells are not arriving at sufficient scale to enable Ukrainian forces to maximise defensive operations; Havrylyuk noted that it will likely take several more weeks and months for aid to impact the frontline significantly. In the meantime, Russian forces continue to conduct intense offensive operations along multiple axes of advance, though territorial progress remains slow amid high casualties on both sides.
- BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
- DONETSK: Over the past few days, Russian forces have sustained offensive pressure in the direction of Pokrovsk, making confirmed gains following mechanised assaults. On 16 June, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops launched 36 assaults in the space of 24 hours in the direction of Pokrovsk amid efforts to breach Ukrainian defences. Geolocated footage posted on 14 June indicates that a reinforced Russian company-sized mechanised assault successfully advanced south-east of Novoselivka Persha (located to the north-west of Avdiivka). Similarly, additional footage from 14 June shows Russian forces conducting a platoon-sized mechanised attack resulting in gains to the south-east of and within southern Sokil (also located to the north-west of Avdiivka). Meanwhile, geolocated footage from 16 June shows limited Russian advances in central Krasnohorivka (located to the west of Donetsk city).
- KHARKIV: Conflicting reports in recent days indicate that Russian forces have likely advanced towards an aggregate plant in Vovchansk, though it remains unclear if this is a sustainable presence or whether Ukrainian forces are threatening to surround these units. On 14-15 June, conflicting reports emerged indicating that up to 400 Russian personnel have effectively been encircled in the area, and that dozens have been captured. Geolocated footage from 14 June does indicate that Ukrainian forces in the area captured around 30 Russian service personnel, though Russian sources claim that Ukrainian reports of an encirclement constitute an exaggeration. We cannot confirm at present whether Russian forces in this area have been encircled, with Ukrainian officers commenting in recent days that reports from Vovchansk are often delayed.
- KHARKIV: A spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortytsia Grouping of Forces, Nazar Voloshyn, claimed on 14 June that Russian forces suffered around 4,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in Kharkiv oblast between 10 May and 10 June. Russian progress along the Kharkiv axis has slowed significantly in recent weeks, with unconfirmed reports of Russian forces withdrawing highly degraded units from the frontline, including the 83rd Separate Guards Airborne (VDV) Brigade, given they are now combat ineffective.
- KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
- OSKIL-KREMINNA: Over the past few days, Russian forces have continued to make limited gains along the Oskil-Kreminna frontline. Geolocated footage from 15 June indicates recent Russian advances north-west of Berestove, located to the south-east of Kupiansk. Meanwhile, on 15 June, a commander of the Ukrainian Azov Brigade claimed that Ukrainian forces dislodged Russian forces from positions in the Serebrianske forest area (located to the south-west of Kreminna). On 16 June, the Azov Brigade reported that since 21 April, it has advanced around 0.62 miles (1km) in depth and 1.2 miles (2km) along the front in the Serebrianske forest area.
- SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
- STRIKES: Overnight on 13-14 June, Russia launched ten Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, three Iskandr-M ballistic missiles, one Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missile and 17 Shahed-131/136 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted all 17 drones and seven Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles over Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
- STRIKES: Meanwhile, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that its air defences intercepted 87 Ukrainian-launched unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over Russia on 17 June. According to Russia’s MoD, 70 drones reportedly targeted Rostov oblast (Russia) alone. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR), appeared to corroborate this claim by stating that Ukrainian forces targeted Russia’s Morozovsk airbase in Rostov with at least 70 drones. Satellite imagery from 4 June shows that the airbase reportedly housed Su-34 and Su-24 aircraft. An OSINT source reported that Kyiv used Dragon and Splash drones and posted satellite imagery showing damage to aviation infrastructure, with no aircraft seen outside the airbase. The Voronezh oblast (Russia) authorities reported that the attack damaged an oil depot. Over the past few days, Ukraine has intensified its aerial attacks against Russian aviation targets, likely to degrade Moscow’s striking capabilities.
- STRIKES: On 15 June, the Russian authorities reported that an unspecified number of Ukrainian drones targeted the Kamensk-Shakhtinsky area in Rostov, where a large state-run chemical company is located. US intelligence previously indicated that the industrial facility produced composite fuel for rocket engines. On 17 June, the regional authorities reported that several Ukrainian drones were intercepted over Belgorod, Lipetsk and Voronezh oblasts (all Russia).
- STRIKES: We previously reported that Ukraine has intensified its aerial attacks against Russian air defence systems located in occupied Crimea in recent months. These attacks are part of broader efforts targeting military objectives such as air defence systems, as well as aerial and naval assets and military logistical infrastructure like the Kerch Bridge. We assess that such strikes likely aim to facilitate future attacks conducted by Western-provided fighter jets (including F-16s). However, due to recruitment bottlenecks and training pressures, Ukrainian forces are unlikely to deploy F-16s in combat operations in the short term. Simultaneously, we assess that Russia will likely reinforce the density of Crimea’s air defence coverage to counter the threat of Ukrainian air strikes, given the peninsula’s high strategic value for the Kremlin.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- SECURITY: On 13 June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Joe Biden signed a bilateral security arrangement. The accord stipulates that the two sides will co-ordinate on a regular basis (and no less than annually) on military and defence matters. It also outlines the US’ intentions to aid in the development of Ukraine’s military capabilities. Notably, the agreement states that the US will commit to assisting in the modernisation of Ukraine’s air force, including by taking steps towards facilitating Kyiv’s procurement of squadrons of modern fighter aircraft, including F-16s. For further analysis on the agreement, please see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 13 June 2024.
- ENERGY: Volodymyr Kudrytskiy, the head of Ukraine’s grid operator, Ukrenergo, warned on 16 June that long daily power outages are expected until the end of July due to repairs on reactor units at nuclear power plants. Kudrytskiy stated the power cuts are necessary as Russian attacks have destroyed or damaged non-nuclear plants and energy infrastructure which Ukraine would have been able to use to offset shortages. The largest blackouts will reportedly occur between 1100hrs and 2300hrs (local time). The impact of Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities and continued attacks against such infrastructure will therefore continue to drive energy security risks in the coming weeks.
- SABOTAGE: Ukraine’s National Police (NPU) reported on 14 June that Russia’s special services have recruited teenagers to burn the vehicles of personnel serving in Ukraine’s armed forces. The Russian agents reportedly offer generous monetary rewards to minors for committing arson attacks, though the Ukrainian authorities did not specify a sum. Arson incidents were recorded in Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk oblast), the capital Kyiv and Odesa (Odesa oblast). Ultimately, the NPU’s statement underscores Russia’s capability and will to recruit Ukrainian teenagers (as well as organised crime groups, OCGs) to orchestrate low-level plausibly deniable sabotage with the aim of further destabilising Ukraine and sowing panic.
FORECAST
NEGOTIATIONS: On 14 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin set out his terms for a ceasefire in Ukraine, which amounted to a demand for the effective capitulation of Ukraine shortly before the Swiss-held Ukraine peace summit on 15 June. Putin claimed that Moscow is ready to begin negotiations, but only when Kyiv announces the withdrawal of its troops from the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR), as well as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Russia announced its annexation of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts in September 2022, though Russian forces do not control these territories in their entirety. These terms would mean Ukraine would have to cede around 40% of Donetsk and 25% of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – including Kherson and Zaporizhzhia cities. Putin also insisted that the Ukrainian leadership must abandon its aspirations to join NATO. This confirms our assessment that the Kremlin’s war goals in Ukraine have not changed, and that Moscow is highly unlikely to entertain concessions at this time.
Putin’s terms also align with our previous forecast that Russian conditions for starting negotiations would possibly increase in any future attempt to persuade Western governments to encourage Kyiv to grant concessions to Moscow prematurely. Putin stated that Russia’s conditions for starting negotiations will be different in the future if Kyiv and its Western partners refuse his terms. According to the Russian leader, the battlefield ‘realities’ will continue to evolve, and not in Ukraine’s favour. This statement highly likely forms part of an ongoing Russian reflexive control campaign designed to encourage Western decision makers into independently taking actions favourable to Russia – i.e. persuading senior politicians that a timely end to the war is more desirable given Russia could increase its demands the longer the war protracts. Such narratives will likely play a major role in the run-up to and during the US presidential election in November.
In this vein, Viktor Medvedchuk, a pro-Kremlin Ukrainian oligarch close to Putin, called for Russia to occupy the city of Odesa (Odesa oblast) and other Ukrainian cities if Kyiv refuses Putin’s peace proposal. The director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergei Naryshkin, also threatened on 17 June that conditions for peace will be tougher in the future if Kyiv does not agree to Putin’s terms. Although Naryshkin offered limited details, we assess that Russia will possibly annex Kharkiv later this year – possibly in September – so as to pressure Kyiv and its allies to enter peace talks.
Ultimately, Putin’s terms are highly unlikely to reflect a genuine desire from Moscow to end the war in the short-to-medium term. Kyiv is highly unlikely to agree to cede territory to Moscow in the foreseeable future, nor is it likely to agree to renounce its desire to join NATO. Notably, Putin claimed that his conditions are a ‘concrete, real’ peace proposal ahead of the Swiss-held summit promoting Ukraine’s conditions for peace. Putin’s decision to voice his demands ahead of the event was almost certainly timed to undermine support for the conference and to give the impression that Moscow is ready for peace talks, drawing attention to the fact that Russia was not invited to the conference.
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan claimed that China likely decided not to attend the summit at Putin’s behest and that this was indicative of Beijing’s stance on the war. While it is unlikely that a request from Putin alone would have stopped China from attending, Beijing’s decision not to attend indicates that it prioritises its relations with Moscow over Kyiv; it possibly also wants to conduct peace talks centred around its own proposals. For further analysis, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 3 June 2024.
Russia was not invited to participate in the conference, though Swiss President Viola Amherd disclosed on 16 June that Putin will possibly be allowed to attend a hypothetical second global peace summit. Amherd stated that exceptions can be arranged for the Russian leader to join such an event in Switzerland in light of the arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court (ICC). While Amherd’s comments reflect an acknowledgement that Russia will eventually have to be involved in negotiations to end the war, such conferences aim to build solidarity for Ukraine’s envisioned terms for peace in the meantime. Putin’s attendance at any such event in the short term will remain unlikely for this reason.
Ultimately, our assessment remains that Russia is highly unlikely to engage in negotiations in good faith to end the war in the near term, which Kyiv’s allies recognise. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz disclosed on 16 June that G7 leaders did not discuss Putin’s proposals during the summit, adding that they were not ‘meant seriously’. Over 90 countries attended the two-day peace summit in Switzerland. Around 80 countries and organisations signed a final joint communiqué which focused on nuclear safety, global food security and the release of all prisoners of war (POWs) through exchanges. While these articles are the most likely to receive widespread support, it is notable that Armenia, Bahrain, Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the UAE did not endorse the communiqué. This underscores the limitations of the current peace platform to garner support from countries that traditionally have more cordial and pragmatic relations with Moscow; support from these parties will likely prove important to reaching an eventual peace deal. (Source: Sibylline)
16 Jun 24. Ukraine summit strives for broad consensus to lean on Russia to end war. Western powers and other nations sought a consensus on the second day of a summit in Switzerland on Sunday on condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and underscoring the war’s human cost.
A draft of the final summit declaration seen by Reuters refers to Russia’s invasion as a “war” – a label Moscow rejects – and calls for Ukraine’s control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and its Azov Sea ports to be restored.
The draft, dated June 13, called for Ukraine’s territorial integrity to be respected.
But – in line with the conference’s more modest stated aims – it omitted knottier issues of what a post-war settlement for Ukraine might look like, whether Ukraine could join the NATO alliance or how troop withdrawals from both sides might be managed.
Moscow casts what it calls its special military operation in Ukraine as part of a broader struggle with the West, which it says wants to bring Russia to its knees, while Kyiv and the West say Russia is waging an illegal war of conquest.
World leaders including U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron gathered at the mountaintop resort of Buergenstock in a bid to bolster international support for ending the war.
Many Western leaders voiced forceful condemnation of the invasion and rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demands for parts of Ukraine as a condition for peace.
French left-wing leaders join anti-far-right protest in Paris
“One thing is clear in this conflict: there is an aggressor, which is Putin, and there is a victim, which is the Ukrainian people,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said.
More than 90 countries took part, but China’s decision to stay away dimmed hopes that the summit would show Russia was globally isolated, while recent military reverses have put Kyiv on the back foot.
Some leaders departed early, and talks on Sunday will turn towards pursuing a joint position on the need for nuclear and food security, and the return of prisoners of war and children removed from Ukraine during the conflict.
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters that Qatar had helped to mediate the return from Russia of 30 or more Ukrainian children to their families.
“It’s going to take international pressure. It’s going to take a spotlight from the international community – and not just from the voices from the United States or Europe – but from unusual voices, as well, to say what Russia has done here is morally reprehensible and must be reversed,” he said.
Kyiv says about 20,000 children have been taken to Russia or Russian-occupied territory without the consent of family or guardians since the war began. Moscow rejects this, saying it has protected vulnerable children from the war zone.
The draft communique calls for all illegally deported children to be returned.
FOLLOW-UP
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hailed the summit at the resort overlooking Lake Lucerne as a show of international support for Kyiv, even as some European allies said a broader outreach was needed for a lasting peace plan.
One central ambition of the Swiss and Ukrainian organisers is to announce on Sunday the host country for a follow-up conference meant to build on the Swiss momentum, although the draft communique made no mention of this.
Saudi Arabia is one of the favourites, and Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said the kingdom was ready to assist the peace process, but warned that a viable settlement would hinge on “difficult compromise.”
Striking a balance in the summit’s final declaration between forthright condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and wording that commands the broadest possible support has been part of the diplomatic tug-of-war at the event, sources say.
Russia has dismissed the summit as a waste of time.
“None of the participants in the ‘peace forum’ knows what he is doing there and what his role is,” said Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and now deputy chairman of the country’s Security Council.
Switzerland also faced some internal criticism. Nils Fiechter, a member of the right-wing Swiss Peoples’ Party (SVP), the biggest group in the Swiss lower house of parliament, appeared on broadcaster Russia Today to call the summit a “farce”.
He warned that the summit undermined Swiss neutrality and said Russia had to have a seat at the table.
It remains to be seen how many countries will back a final joint declaration, and Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer on Saturday sought to temper hopes somewhat.
“Just to manage expectations, please: The crucial take-away is that we’ve all come here, that we’re talking, that many different nations and continents are talking to each other … This is the essence of this conference,” he said.
“Peace and peace processes take time, working millimetre by millimetre.” (Source: Reuters)
14 Jun 24. From Russia with interest: G7 to loan Ukraine $50bn from Moscow’s frozen assets.
The G7 will use annual interest from $325bn in frozen Russian assets to pay off interest on a $50bn loan for Ukraine’s war effort.
Leaders at the G7 summit in Italy have signed off on a controversial move to use the interest from frozen Russian assets to raise $50bn for Ukraine’s war effort.
When Russian forces began the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the G7 and EU froze $325bn of Russian assets, which is generating roughly $3bn in interest per year.
Under the G7’s new plan, announced yesterday (13 June) after months of debate, that $3bn will pay off the annual interest on the $50bn loan granted to Ukraine.
The G7 summit in Italy also saw US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sign a ten-year bilateral security deal, which will expand aid and military training between Washington and Kyiv.
Other G7 leaders welcomed the plan, described by UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as “game-changing” and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as “historic”.
The G7 alliance, made up of some of the world’s richest nations (the US, the UK, Germany, Italy, France, Canada and Japan) has been a consistent supporter of Ukraine’s war effort since 2022.
This $50bn loan is not expected to arrive in Ukrainian coffers until the end of the year. While it is a significant amount following the last US aid package of $61bn in April, analysts say it is not enough to turn the tide in Ukraine’s favour or deter Russia’s offensive.
What next?
Moscow has condemned the G7’s move to use its frozen assets in the strongest terms.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned of an “extremely painful” retaliation, while the Kremlin accused the G7 and EU of committing a criminal action.
In February, Russia’s Finance Minister said Moscow had “ways to respond” if Western nations seized Moscow’s funds.
Legal action seems the most probable course of action, according to Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard.
“This decision is clearly designed to keep on the right side of the Rubicon in the sense of not confiscating the underlying Russian assets themselves, but instead just impounding the returns on those assets which amounts to a form of windfall taxation,” Granville told Army Technology. “The most obvious Russian retaliation would be to impound the dividend income received by international investors from “unfriendly” (i.e. sanctioning) jurisdictions on their holding of Russian securities.”
Euroclear, the Belgium-based financial body holding most of Russia’s central bank assets in Europe, has previously criticised the G7’s proposal.
Euroclear declined to comment when approached by Army Technology.
The European Central Bank had also warned against the G7 releasing all $325bn in frozen Russian assets, despite some in Kyiv calling for it. Christine Lagarde, the bank’s president, said it risked “breaking the international order … you would want Russia to respect”.
Ukraine is expected to channel the funds into two main areas: F-16 fighter jets and Patriot air defence systems.
After thanking the G7 for the $50bn loan, Zelensky renewed his appeal for seven more Patriot systems to defend Ukraine’s power infrastructure and civilian housing against Russia’s drone and missile bombardment.
Each Patriot system costs around $1.1bn – $400m for the system and $690m for the missiles.
International attention now centres on Russia’s response and any further G7 pledges made as discussions continue in Italy today and tomorrow (14-15 June). (Source: army-technology.com)
14 Jun 24. Romania launches expansion of air base near Ukraine. The Romanian government has begun a multibn-euro expansion and modernization project at one of its air bases near Ukraine, where new military equipment will be stored.
Romanian Defence Minister Angel Tîlvăr announced the move June 11 during a ceremony at the Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base, located less than 200 kilometers (124 miles) from the Ukrainian border.
The project to extend the military base, which has housed U.S. capabilities and forces since 1999, was approved prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
“The reason why Romania decided to extend our capabilities here is the result of when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and later on in 2014 in Crimea [when Russia annexed the peninsula]. Our plans have been approved since 2018 for this,” Romanian Air Force Col. Nicolae Cretu, the base commander, told Defense News during the NATO-led exercise Ramstein Legacy held here.
The work will in part involve the construction of a new runway, a guard tower, and additional hangars to protect existing and forthcoming military assets purchased by the Eastern European country. The official estimated the cost associated with the expansion will come to €2.5 bn (U.S. $2.7 bn).
Romania has several ongoing acquisition programs, primarily focused on short-range and very-short-range air defense systems, on which it plans to spend up to $2.1 bn.
It also received two additional Patriot batteries last year, now totaling four, and is partaking in the joint procurement of up to 1,000 Patriot PAC-2 GEM-T missiles under the European Sky Shield Initiative.
The air base’s location has proved highly strategic in recent years, both for Romania and its NATO allies. As an example, the Romanian officer cited the base’s value during the Iraq war, as it was used by allies “to project force outside of their territories and over long distances.”
Romanian media reported the modernization effort involves the construction of a military installation similarly sized to that of Ramstein Air Base in Germany, although the official did not confirm this aspiration.
Given its direct access to the Black Sea and close proximity to Russian territory, the air base has hosted several NATO-run Enhanced Air Policing missions, including this year’s edition, which welcomed the first-ever deployment of Finnish F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Defense News)
14 Jun 24. Putin’s ceasefire cannot be trusted, says Zelensky. Vladimir Putin’s ceasefire offer cannot be trusted, Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, has said.
The Russian president said in a speech earlier on Friday that Russia would end the war in Ukraine if Kyiv agreed to drop its Nato ambitions and hand over the entirety of four provinces claimed by Moscow.
Mr Zelensky dismissed the offer as rubbish, saying he believed Putin would not stop his military offensive even if his ceasefire demands were met.
“These are ultimatum messages that are no different from messages from the past,” the Ukrainian leader told Italy’s SkyTG24 news channel.
“He will not stop,” Mr Zelensky said, likening Putin’s invasion of Ukraine to Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler’s expansionist drive before the outbreak of the Second World War.
“It is the same thing that Hitler used to do (…) This is why we should not trust these messages,” Mr Zelensky said.
Putin demands full withdrawal of troops
Putin gave his speech on the eve of a conference in Switzerland to which Russia has not been invited.
In it he set out maximalist conditions wholly at odds with the terms demanded by Ukraine, apparently reflecting Moscow’s growing confidence that its forces have the upper hand in the war.
“The conditions are very simple,” Putin said, listing them as the full withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the entire territory of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in eastern and southern Ukraine.
Russia claimed the four regions, which its forces control only partially, as part of its own territory in 2022, an act rejected by most countries at the United Nations as illegal.
Moscow also seized and annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula in 2014.
“As soon as they declare in Kyiv that they are ready for such a decision and begin a real withdrawal of troops from these regions, and also officially announce the abandonment of their plans to join Nato – on our side, immediately, literally at the same minute, an order will follow to cease fire and begin negotiations,” Putin said.
“I repeat, we will do this immediately. Naturally, we will simultaneously guarantee the unhindered and safe withdrawal of Ukrainian units and formations.”
After almost a year of stalemate, Ukraine has been forced to abandon dozens of front-line settlements this spring, with Russian troops holding a significant advantage in manpower and resources.
(Source: Daily Telegraph)
14 Jun 24. G7 leaders condemn China for aiding Russia in its war on Ukraine. Pledge to take tougher action over Beijing exporting components used to build weapons
Britain, the US and other Western countries released a joint statement on Friday pledging to take tougher action against China if it continued to supply Russia with materials used in weapons manufacturing.
American intelligence agencies believe that while China is not selling weapons to Russia, it has traded components that have been used to build them.
The G7 took its harshest line on China since the beginning of the conflict, expressing “deep concern” about the defence ties between Moscow and Beijing.
“We call on China to press Russia to stop its military aggression and immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw its troops from Ukraine,” the leaders said.
Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister, said: “The UK and others have already sanctioned Chinese entities for facilitating Russia’s defence industry. The G7 has now agreed with that principle.
“So the message is clear: if you prop up Russia’s war economy, prolonging this illegal war, you will pay a price.”
Action by the G7 follows months of criticism of China by the United States, which claims that Chinese companies are directly supporting the war and helping Russia to avoid sanctions on weapons.
Joe Biden, the US president, said on Thursday that China “does not supply weapons, but the ability to produce those weapons and the technology available to do it”.
White House officials believe that in the last quarter of 2023, more than 70 per cent of Russia’s machine-tools imports were provided by China. The imports are likely to have been used to produce ballistic missiles.
Declassified intelligence shows that China also supplied 90 per cent of Russia’s microelectronics, which are used in the production of missiles, tanks and aircraft.
The US is understood to have mounted a major diplomatic push for the G7 to become more hawkish on China, in line with American policy.
Beijing has denied directly supplying weapons to Russia and says it “prudently handles the export of dual-use items in accordance with laws and regulations”.
China has also refused to attend a Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland starting on Saturday, arguing that Russia should be allowed to attend.
The G7 statement came as Vladimir Putin set out conditions for peace talks with Ukraine, including the removal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
Putin said his next offer of a peace deal would be less attractive if Ukraine refuses his first offer.
However, such a withdrawal would mean Ukraine had conceded much of its eastern territory to Russia before peace talks even began.
Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, has repeatedly said he will not concede any territory to end the war.
This week’s G7 summit in Puglia, Italy, saw leaders set out plans for a $50 bn (£40 bn) war loan to Ukraine secured against the profits from Russian assets frozen in Europe.
Both the UK and US made separate bilateral commitments to Ukraine’s security. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
14 Jun 24. Ukraine establishes world’s first unmanned force. Ukraine officially established the world’s first unmanned force on 11 June, a new branch of the military dedicated to harnessing the power of unmanned warfare.
Known as the Unmanned Systems Forces, the command aims to co-ordinate the deployment of air, sea, and ground unmanned and robotic systems.
The announcement comes four months after President Volodymyr Zelensky decreed the creation of a separate branch of Ukraine’s armed forces.
The branch will be supported by over a m indigenously developed first person view (FPV) unmanned aircraft systems (UASs), which the government aims to develop in 2024.
Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi, the former deputy commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has been appointed the first Unmanned Systems Forces commander. Col Sukharevskyi was one of the first commanders in Ukraine to effectively deploy unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in combat, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) of Ukraine detailed.
During the launch ceremony in Kyiv, Deputy Minister of Defence Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk noted how the creation of the new branch will allow Ukraine to strike targets as distant as Russia’s Ural region – roughly 1,600 km from Ukraine. (Source: Janes)
17 Jun 24. Robot craze in Russia-Ukraine war shines light on their drawbacks. Despite the notable lineup and exploits of crude ground robots seen whizzing over the battlefield in Ukraine, experts say deploying them in combat remains a costly affair in terms of labor and their vulnerabilities.
Since the appearance of a Russian unmanned ground vehicle, or UGV, in Ukraine in April 2022, several new prototypes have popped up across the battlefield.
The robot craze has seemingly engulfed both Russia and Ukraine, as evidenced by the former’s plan to make them an integral part of its military and the latter’s intention to create an army of robots. But the popularity of such systems predates the war by several years.
“Prior to its invasion of Ukraine, the Russian military was one of the global leaders in UGV research, development and evaluation. It developed multiple types and started trialing them, but did so in a very limited format,” according to Samuel Bendett, a Russia defense expert at the U.S.-based Center for Naval Analyses think tank. “It likely did not have enough time to develop tactics and concepts for integrating larger UGV numbers and types into combined arms formations.”
For its part, Ukraine approved the use of ground robots in military operations in 2016, but some limitations regarding their deployment have persisted, according to Serhii Kuzan, a former adviser to the Ukrainian Defence Ministry.
The two main issues he identified relate to the lack of higher numbers of UGVs present in military units and their vulnerability to different Russian countermeasures.
“Currently, the main problem is the relatively low saturation of such unmanned systems in Ukrainian units, but it is worth noting here that no European army could at the moment fully meet the needs for these robotic platforms,” said Kuzan, who is now the chairman of the analytics organization Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center.
UGVs are as much of a target for enemy drones as are crewed armored vehicles, he added, except that the robots are also highly vulnerable to Russia’s electronic warfare tools.
Given the number of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance drones flying above the battlefield, developing larger “pre-February 2022 UGV types is a costly affair,” Bendett said, referring to the month Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Another factor constraining the use of robots in combat is the absence of fully autonomous navigation in many platforms, hence the necessity for additional equipment dedicated to their protection.
“As there is no truly autonomous UGV yet that can navigate itself to [a] target, the vehicle’s remote control today is also aided by drones providing tactical overwatch, helping to guide it towards intended destinations in logistics, supply and evacuation operations,” Bendett said.
This makes sending out these vehicles “very manpower-intensive,” he added.
Despite these limitations, there are many examples of the effective use of such systems by Ukrainian forces. Experts agree Western countries are drawing lessons from these instances.
Kuzan noted that ground robots have predominantly proved successful in demining and cargo-transport missions, specifically citing the Ratel S UGV as a valuable system that can also be used as a ground-based munition.
These newer applications could signal a trend, as Russia is moving beyond using land robots in a primarily logistics role, with the development of its latest Buggy UGV designed to detonate upon reaching its target.
“What the Russian military is doing is emulating the concept of a loitering ammunition drone but basing it on an uncrewed ground system — same functionality, but driving to the target instead of flying into it,” said Alain Tremblay, the vice president of innovation and business development at Rheinmetall Canada.
Remotely operated or autonomous robots are the platforms of choice for this, as they can generally “embark a much larger explosive charge,” Tremblay added. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Defense News)
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