NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Jun 13.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

SUMY: On 9-10 June, Russian forces raided across the international border into Sumy oblast during a very limited operation which has now been repulsed by Ukrainian forces
STRIKES: Ukrainian forces have stepped up strikes against Russian air defence systems across Crimea, including against S-300/S-400 systems, likely in preparation for the arrival of F-16s later this year
APPROPRIATIONS: G7 leaders have agreed to provide Ukraine USD 50 billion by the end of the year by using the profits from frozen Russian assets; this will increase the risk of tit-for-tat Russian appropriations of Western assets
FORECAST: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Joe Biden are set to sign a bilateral 10-year security agreement, but this will not commit the US to supplying troops or a specific amount of aid to Ukraine
BAKHMUT: Russian forces have made limited advances around Chasiv Yar (Donetsk oblast), including penetrating further into the eastern micro-district east of the Siverskyi-Donets-Donbas Canal. UK Defence Intelligence (DI) reported on 12 June that it is likely that Russian forces have achieved a limited ‘break-in’ of the eastern micro-district suburb of Chasiv Yar. However, the report also noted that Russian losses in this area are high. Russian forces are pushing steadily (if very slowly) towards the canal, but establishing a permanent crossing point will prove difficult given the relative strength of Ukrainian defences in this area. Further north, geolocated footage from 12 June indicates that Russian forces made a limited advance south-east of Vyimka (Donetsk oblast) along the river, located around seven miles (11km) south-east of Siversk.
DONETSK: Russian forces made limited advances along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk axis where the situation remains tense. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on 11 June that the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have intensified air strikes in the direction of Pokrovsk increasing pressure on the defending Ukrainians. Geolocated footage from 12 June confirmed Russian advances within Nevelske, south-west of Avdiivka. Additional footage from 10 June indicates that Russian forces a north of Lyptsi (located 14 miles (23km) north of the Kharkiv city E-40 ring road). Meanwhile, to the north-east, Russian forces have made marginal advances in Vovchansk (located north-east of Lyptsi), but their progress remains slow. Ukrainian Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on 12 June that Russian forces have bogged down in the Kharkiv direction and that they are relying upon reinforcements taken from other sections of the frontline. It remains unclear whether Russian forces will commit additional reserves to the Kharkiv operation in the short term. However, it remains likely that they do retain some forces in Belgorod oblast that have yet to be committed, possibly in preparation for phase two of the operation.
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove line, making limited confirmed gains. Geolocated footage from 11 June shows Russian advances east of Stepova Novoselivka, south-east of Kupiansk. Meanwhile, on 13 June, a prominent Russian milblogger reported intense fighting around Miasozharivka and that Russian forces had captured Andriivka, both settlements located north-west of Svatove. The claims of the capture of Andriivka remain visually unverified.
SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage published on 10 June indicates that Russian forces have retaken Staromaiorske, located around 11 miles (18km) south of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast). Russian forces likely intend to push north along the Mokri Yar River towards Velyka Novosilka (also Donetsk oblast) and retake positions along the valley that Ukrainian forces initially captured during the 2023 counter-offensive.
SUMY: On 9 June, Russian forces raided across the international border into Sumy oblast during a very limited operation which has now been repulsed by Ukrainian forces. Geolocated footage indicated that Russian forces, including elements of Chechen Akhmat forces, crossed the Kursk border and entered the border town of Ryzhivka, located 32 miles (52km) north-east of Sumy city. President Volodymyr Zelensky described the raid as a ‘propaganda operation’, with Ukrainian forces reportedly repelling the Russian force relatively quickly.
SUMY: The Ukrainian State Border Guard Service confirmed on 12 June that Russian activity along the Sumy border had decreased to ‘almost zero’; this activity was highly likely a reconnaissance operation at most. Ultimately, we forecast that Russian forces could realistically launch limited cross-border operations in Sumy oblast as part of the current Russian objective to force Ukrainian forces to redeploy troops to screen the border, spreading Ukrainian positions thin. This has worked to an extent in Kharkiv oblast, where Ukrainians have been forced to commit additional reserves. Further cross-border raids in Sumy oblast are a realistic possibility in the coming weeks as Russian forces seek to keep the Ukrainians off balance and maintain pressure to offset the loss of momentum.
STRIKES: Overnight on 11-12 June, Russia launched four Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, one Iskandr-M ballistic missile, one Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missile and 24 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences reportedly intercepted all 24 drones, the four Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missile. The projectiles were reportedly destroyed over Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Ukrainian authorities reported that the attack caused a fire at an industrial facility in Kyiv oblast and struck Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk oblast), killing nine people and injuring 29.
STRIKES: Over the past few days, Ukraine has executed several seemingly successful strikes against Russian air defence systems in Russian-annexed Crimea. Overnight on 9-10 June, Ukraine launched a strike using Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) against an S-400 air defence battery near Dzhankoi and two S-300 systems near Chornomorske and Yevpatoria (all Crimea). The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the attack damaged each system’s radar stations and that Russian air defences failed to intercept the ATACMS missiles. A Russian anti-Kremlin media outlet claimed that the attack was carried out with ten ATACMS missiles.
STRIKES: Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed one S-300 and two S-400 air defence batteries in Crimea on 12 June. The S-300 battery and one S-400 system were located near the Belbek military airfield and the other S-400 battery near Sevastopol (both Crimea).
STRIKES: The latest attacks underscore Kyiv’s efforts to degrade Russian air defence systems deployed across the annexed Crimean peninsula, likely in a bid to thin Russian air defences in preparation for the arrival of Ukraine’s F-16s. The success of such attacks likely indicates declining Russian air defence capabilities due to the deployment of such systems to parts of the frontline. Notably, on 10 June, a Crimean-based pro-Ukrainian partisan group stated that Moscow recently deployed air defence systems to Belgorod oblast, which has likely weakened air defence coverage of the peninsula.
STRIKES: Following the 12 June attack, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR), Kyrylo Budanov, reported that Russia has installed its latest S-500 air defence systems in occupied Crimea. According to Budanov, the deployment of such systems is for experimental purposes. S-500s are typically designed to intercept short to medium-range projectiles and can reportedly counter ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles. We assess that such a deployment likely underscores Moscow’s efforts to test the efficiency of S-500 systems against Western projectiles, such as ATACMS, but also could realistically reflect the growing pressure on Russia’s existing S-300/-400 systems and the need to offset air defence gaps caused by Ukrainian strikes.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

APPROPRIATIONS: G7 leaders have agreed to provide Ukraine with USD 50 billion by the end of the year using the profits from frozen Russian assets. An unspecified French official familiar with the matter said on 12 June that most of the money would be disbursed in the form of a US government loan. The loan would be backed by the windfall profits currently being generated on around USD 300 billion in immobilised Russian assets. On 2 May, Russia’s envoy to the IMF, Alexei Mozhin, said that the West’s freezing of Russian assets is the ‘largest theft in history’. We assess that the G7’s agreement will highly likely increase the risk of Russian retaliatory appropriations of Western assets in the coming months.
NEGOTIATIONS: Reports emerged on 13 June that Switzerland altered provisions of a document for the upcoming peace summit on 15-16 June that would have been unfavourable for Ukraine. The initial draft proposed by the Swiss authorities reportedly would have created loopholes for Ukrainian territorial concessions to Russia. Now it reportedly states that the foundation for sustainable peace will be based on the respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all states. The document also would have opened the possibility to discuss alternative international visions for peace.
NEGOTIATIONS: These alterations have reportedly prompted some countries more in favour of Russia to drop out of the event; at least 78 states and organisations are expected to attend. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s spokesperson, Serhiy Nykyforov, said on 3 June that 107 countries and organisations had confirmed their participation in the conference. Ultimately, the summit in Switzerland aims to build support and consensus for Kyiv’s conditions for peace. However, negotiations to end the war remain highly unlikely for the foreseeable future. Moreover, it is almost certain that all of Ukraine’s envisioned terms for peace will not be met when the time comes for negotiations with Russia to end the war, given the likely need for compromises and concessions.
ENERGY: Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, disclosed on 12 June that in the worst-case scenario, Ukrainians could spend up to 20 hours a day without power and heating come winter if Russia continues to attack power plants. Although DTEK stated that this is a worst-case scenario, the company noted that Ukraine’s thermal and hydroelectric power stations are difficult and expensive to repair. According to the head of communications at Ukraine’s national transmission system operator Ukrenergo, Maria Tsaturian, some facilities will take years to repair, while others may never be brought back online. Russia will likely maintain attacks on energy facilities in the coming months to further undermine Ukraine’s energy security and infrastructure, which will increase the risk of power outages in the coming months.

FORECAST

SECURITY: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his US counterpart Joe Biden are set to sign a bilateral ten-year security agreement today (13 June). According to US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, the agreement will bind Washington DC to supply Kyiv with a wide range of military assistance. Its signing will make the US the 16th country to have signed bilateral agreements with Ukraine; other countries with similar agreements include France, Germany, Italy and the UK.

An unspecified Biden administration official said the pact does not commit the US to supply troops to Ukraine if it is attacked, nor does it specify the monetary value of support Washington DC will offer Kyiv. Nevertheless, the US will continue to train Ukraine’s military, deepen co-operation on defence production and increase intelligence sharing. It also obligates the US to hold consultations with Kyiv within 24 hours if Russia attacks Ukraine again.

Although the deal highly likely seeks to guarantee future US support for Ukraine over the long term, any future president can technically withdraw from the agreement as it is not a binding treaty. Congress will also not ratify the accord. As such, the future of the agreement is uncertain given the upcoming US presidential election in November; former US president Donald Trump could realistically abandon it should he win the vote.

While it is unknown what approach a new Trump administration would take to the war in Ukraine, a Trump victory will highly likely render the trajectory of long-term US assistance to Kyiv more uncertain than if Biden were to secure a second term. Trump reportedly stated in private that he could end the war by pushing Ukraine to make territorial concessions (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 8 April 2024). This indicates a realistic possibility that Trump would attempt to quickly end the conflict by urging Ukraine to cede land to Russia; this would almost certainly disadvantage Kyiv at the negotiating table.

Weaker support for continuing aid to Ukraine among Republicans will possibly guide Trump’s Ukraine policy should he win another mandate. According to polling published by Pew Research Center on 8 May, 49% of Republicans or Republican-leaning respondents believe that the US is providing Ukraine with too much support compared to 16% of their Democrat or Democrat-leaning counterparts.

Jun 11.

Belarus-Russia: Belarus will remain key actor in Russia’s sanctions circumvention strategy. Reports on 10 June indicated that the Belarusian government suspended the application of VAT on various types of imported machinery, components and transport equipment from 7 June. This suspension covers over 100 product codes, including pumps, turbines, heat exchangers, tower cranes, railway equipment and machine tools. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Belarus has increased its imports, peaking at USD 3.93bn in December 2023. After Russia and China, EU countries remain Belarus’ main import source. In February, Belarusian exports to Russia reportedly increased by approximately USD 8.5 bn compared to their 2022 levels. The growing economic integration between the two countries has enabled Russia to procure Western-banned goods through Belarus. As such, we assess that the latest VAT suspension will facilitate Russian imports of banned items, underscoring Belarus’ crucial role in Moscow’s efforts to procure items interdicted by Western embargos.
Poland-Belarus: Border exclusion zone will likely moderately disrupt NGO, journalist operations. On 13 June, Poland will reintroduce an exclusion zone along part of its border with Belarus in response to the ongoing irregular migrant crisis and the killing of a Polish soldier by a migrant attempting to cross from Belarus into Poland in May. The exclusion zone, which will be in place for 90 days, will be around 37 miles (60km) long, stretching from Czeremcha to the border guard post in Narewka (both Podlaskie voivodeship). Unauthorised people will be prohibited from coming within 200m of the border in some places, and up to 1.2 miles (2km) in others. The government hopes that, in addition to a fortified wall already in place across sections of the border with Belarus, the exclusion zone will provide an added layer of protection for border guards and an additional hurdle for irregular migrants. While the regulation indicates that the authorities will attempt to limit disruption as best as possible, we assess that NGOs and journalists covering the border developments are also highly likely to experience disruption.

Jan 10.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

KHARKIV: The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are currently regrouping, which would align with our assessment that Russian forces are potentially preparing for the second phase of the Kharkiv operation
AID: French President Emmanuel Macron has confirmed that France will send fourth-generation Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine, though he has not confirmed the deployment of French instructors to Ukraine
RECRUITMENT: Bloomberg reported that Russia has been forcibly recruiting thousands of migrants and foreign students from Africa to fight in Ukraine; this will likely continue to offset Russian losses at the front
FORECAST: A recent speech by President Vladimir Putin indicated that Moscow believes its current attritional strategy can achieve its war objectives through incremental advances, rather than a rapid victory
BAKHMUT: Geolocated footage from 8-9 June has indicated that Russian forces are making slow, incremental gains in the eastern micro-district of Chasiv Yar – the key tactical objective for Russian forces on the Bakhmut axis. Russian forces are steadily expanding their presence on the eastern bank of the Siverskyi-Donets-Donbas canal, which they will have to cross in order to enter Chasiv Yar proper. Further to the north, geolocated footage published on 8 June also indicates that Russian forces have advanced south-east of Rozdolivka, a village located six miles (10km) south of Siversk (Donetsk oblast).
DONETSK: Russia has continued with offensive operations towards Pokrovsk, making gains north-west and west of Avdiivka over the past few days. Geolocated footage from 9 June shows Russian advances west of Avdiivka in the fields north and north-east of Umanske. Additional footage posted on 7 June indicates that Russian forces advanced east of Novooleksandrivka and in central Sokil; both settlements are located to the north-west of Avdiivka. On 9 June, a Ukrainian military spokesperson explained that the Russian command is mainly launching infantry assaults in the direction of Pokrovsk (north-west of Avdiivka) instead of the mechanised assaults that characterised previous offensive efforts in the sector. However, the military source stressed that Russia is operating at least three brigades in the Pokrovsk direction; it retains a personnel and artillery advantage over Ukraine in the sector. Russian forces will maintain operational pressure in the direction of Pokrovsk, which likely remains Moscow’s tactical objective in this sector in the short-to-medium term.
DONETSK: Meanwhile, Russian forces made confirmed advances west and south-west of Donetsk city in recent days. Geolocated footage from 9 June shows that Ukrainian forces repelled a platoon-sized Russian mechanised assault in southern Krasnohorivka, west of Donetsk. The footage indicates that Russian troops seized some buildings in western Krasnohorivka. Additional footage posted on 7 June indicates that Russian forces recently advanced north-west of Solodke, a settlement located south-west of Donetsk city.
KHARKIV: On 7 June, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces in the Kharkiv direction are currently regrouping; this would align with our assessment that Russian forces are potentially preparing for the second phase of the Kharkiv operation. Between 7 and 9 June, Ukrainian forces likely conducted a number of tactical counter-attacks north of Lyptsi as well as within Vovchansk, located due north and north-east of Kharkiv city, respectively. Geolocated footage indicates Ukrainian forces made marginal advances. However, overall there has been little confirmed change to the frontline over the last week.
KHARKIV: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on 8 June that Russian forces had ‘failed’ to implement their planned Kharkiv operation. The spokesperson for the Ukrainian Khortytsia Grouping of Forces Nazar Voloshyn furthermore reported on 8 June that Ukrainian forces control most of Vovchansk, and that Russian forces are currently establishing defences and barricades north of the city. While this possibly indicates a pause in Russian offensive operations, wider reports indicate that Russian forces are continuing to deploy additional forces to Belgorod oblast; this possibly underscores that they are making preparations for phase two of the operation. It remains unclear at this stage when or if such forces will be deployed against Kharkiv oblast, though further major offensive operations are likely to take place in this direction in the coming weeks.
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Over the past few days, Russian forces have made confirmed gains along the Kupiansk-Svatove line; they have likely seized the settlement of Ivaniivka. Geolocated footage from 6 and 9 June shows Russian forces operating north and north-west of Ivaniivka, located to the north-west of Svatove.
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: On 7 June, Russian forces launched a large-scale drone attack involving 53 Shahed-131/136 drones and five Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles. Ukrainian air defences intercepted all the missiles and 48 drones over Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. The local authorities claimed that the attack caused a fire at an industrial facility in Kyiv and that a drone struck Lyzohubivka (Kharkiv). Overnight on 7-8 June, Russian forces launched one Kh-59 missile and 13 Shahed-131/136 drones. Ukraine’s air force reportedly destroyed the missile and nine drones over Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
STRIKES: Meanwhile, on the evening of 8 June, Ukrainian-launched naval drones reportedly struck the Russian tugboat Engineer Smirnov and the barge Section-179 in Taganrog Bay (Rostov oblast, Russia) in the Azov Sea. A Telegram channel, Baza, claimed that the vessels sustained minor damage and that their operational capabilities were not affected.
STRIKES: A Ukrainian military source told Sky News that the strike damaged a Ropucha-class landing ship in an unspecified location overnight on 8-9 June. The source stated that the Russian military authorities recently moved the ship from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov and that it is the fifth Ropucha-class ship that Ukrainian strikes have severely damaged or sunk. At the same time, a Ukrainian Telegram channel has claimed that satellite imagery shows the attack instead possibly damaged a Vasily Bykov-class patrol ship near the port of Yevsk in Krasnodar Krai (Russia).
STRIKES: In recent days, Ukrainian military sources have indicated that Russia has transferred a large group of vessels from the port of Novorossiysk (Krasnodar Krai) to the Black and Azov seas. The move likely aims to reduce the exposure of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (BSF) to Ukrainian strikes. Nevertheless, the latest attacks, which have yet to be confirmed, likely indicate Ukraine’s ability to co-ordinate strikes against Russian vessels in various locations amid wider efforts to degrade Russia’s regional naval capabilities.
STRIKES: On 9 June, Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) published satellite imagery showing a damaged Su-57 aircraft after a strike on 8 June against Akhtubinsk Airfield in Astrakhan oblast (Russia). GUR Spokesperson Andriy Yusov claimed that the attack possibly damaged a second Su-57 aircraft, though this has yet to be confirmed. The Su-57 is a supersonic fifth-generation multirole fighter, which is typically used to carry out Kh-59/69 cruise missile strikes, according to Ukrainian military sources. If confirmed, the strike would be the first attack against an Su-57, underscoring Kyiv’s likely strategy to degrade Russia’s striking capabilities.
STRIKES: Sky News reported on 9 June that a Ukrainian fixed-wing aircraft reportedly struct a Russian command post in Belgorod; this would likely represent the first such Ukrainian fixed-wing manned aircraft attack inside Russia. While we cannot confirm this, the attack possibly reflects Ukraine’s further experimentation and growing confidence with attacks across the international border since the US partially lifted its ban on strikes inside Russian territory – though it is unclear what weapons were used and what damage was caused.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

APPROPRIATIONS: On 9 June, US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron reached an agreement on utilising profits from frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine. While no further details have been discussed, the announcement comes ahead of the key G7 summit on 13-15 June, when it will become clear whether a consensus among the leaders exists for appropriating not only the profits of Russian frozen assets, but also the assets themselves – though we assess the latter remains less likely in the short term.
AID: Amid commemorations for the D-Day landings in Normandy (France) on 7 June, Macron also confirmed that France would send fourth-generation Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine. These jets will add an important capability to Ukraine’s air force; they are able to launch Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missile attacks and will be able to defend against Russian drone and missile attacks. However, training pressures will mean they are unlikely to begin combat duties in the short term, with Macron indicating a timeline of at least five to six months of training. Recruiting bottlenecks are already apparent in the F-16 programme, which will further limit the number of aircraft Ukraine can field at any given time.
AID: Macron also confirmed that he is working on establishing a coalition of countries willing to send instructors to train mobilised Ukrainian personnel inside Ukraine. The prospect of a French-led contingent of instructors deploying to Ukraine would help speed up the training of Ukrainian forces and support unit rotations closer to the frontline. It remains unclear as and when an announcement on a potential deployment will be made, though any such statement would almost certainly increase Russian scrutiny over France; this would likely involve an uptick in targeted Russian threats as well as a potential uptick in hybrid operations inside France.
RECRUITMENT: On 9 June, Bloomberg reported that Russia has been forcibly recruiting thousands of migrants and foreign students from Africa to fight in Ukraine. According to officials familiar with the matter, the Russian authorities are threatening not to extend the visas of African students unless they agree to join Russia’s armed forces. The authorities are also reportedly arresting Africans in Russia and forcing them to choose between deportation and enlisting. Ukraine’s GUR reported on 28 May that Russia has intensified its efforts to recruit Africans by offering lucrative sign-up bonuses of USD 2,000, as well as a monthly salary of USD 2,200 and the possibility of a Russian passport. Burundi, Republic of Congo, Rwanda and Uganda are reportedly the countries of focus of the current recruitment effort. The initiative illustrates the alternative sources of personnel that will offset Russian losses and limit the need for a further round of (domestically unpopular) mobilisation.
RECRUITMENT: Meanwhile, Ruslan Horbenko, the deputy chairperson of the Ukrainian parliamentary committee on de-occupation, stated on 6 June that Ukraine intends to recruit around 120,000 personnel in 2024. Horbenko stated that the Ukrainian military needs around 100,000-110,000 additional recruits this year, though there are serious questions surrounding Ukraine’s current capacity not only to train these recruits sufficiently, but also to equip them given the delays to Western (including US) weapons transfers.
RECRUITMENT: By contrast, GUR Deputy Head Vadym Skibitiskyi stated in January that Russia currently recruits up to 30,000 personnel per month – around 360,000 per year. President Vladimir Putin claimed on 7 June that Russia has already recruited 160,000 new personnel so far in 2024. Although Russian forces are almost certainly taking much higher casualty rates than Ukrainian forces, Russia retains a distinct demographic and human resource advantage over Ukraine, with the latter set to continue to struggle to man depleted units effectively and to form sufficiently well-equipped reserve units.

FORECAST

STRATEGY: On 7 June, President Vladimir Putin gave a wide-ranging speech on the war in Ukraine, confirming his belief that his strategy for achieving Russia’s objectives can be realised through incremental advances, rather than a rapid victory. During the speech at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Putin stated that a second round of partial mobilisation of reservists is unnecessary because Russia is not attempting to achieve its military objectives in Ukraine quickly, but is instead taking a more steady approach. Putin maintained that the goal is to ‘squeeze’ Ukrainian forces ‘out of those territories that should be under Russian control’. See RECRUITMENT above for further analysis of Russia’s and Ukraine’s recruitment efforts.

This is almost certainly an acknowledgement of the limited offensive capabilities of Russian forces, reflecting the realities of positional warfare and Russia’s reliance on attritional tactics. Given the current positional nature of the war, the extent of Russian vehicle losses and (increasingly) poorly trained personnel, Moscow’s forces are highly unlikely to be able to conduct large-scale manoeuvre operations that inflict a rapid operational or strategic defeat on Ukrainian forces. Instead, Russian forces will likely continue to rely on grinding infantry assaults, as these play to Russia’s demographic and resource advantages; they also reflect Moscow’s likely expectation that Western support for Ukraine will begin to wane.

Putin’s statements align with our base-case forecast for the war in Ukraine in the coming years, which maintains that Moscow is doubling down on a protracted war that is likely to extend beyond 2024 into a semi-stable attritional conflict akin to the Iran-Iraq War (1980-88). Putin highly likely believes that Russia retains the advantage over the medium term, which will see Russia leverage its military-industrial potential and demographic advantages to sustain the war effort for longer than Ukraine is able to. Notably, Putin also stated that Russia’s nuclear doctrine maintains that Russia would only use nuclear weapons in exceptional cases of threats to Russia’s sovereignty. He stated that no such exceptional case has occurred and that as a result ‘there is no such need’ for the use of nuclear weapons. As such, our nuclear escalation assessment remains unchanged – highly unlikely.

Putin’s stated strategy assumes that future Ukrainian counter-offensive operations do not retake lost territory, and that Russian forces maintain the operational initiative indefinitely. While Ukrainian forces are unlikely to be able to launch a major and successful counter-offensive operation in the near-term, such an eventuality would possibly prevent Russia’s attritional strategy from achieving its goals in the coming years (especially if US support remains firm over the next 12 months). Much depends on the outcome of the US presidential election in November and the resultant commitment (or lack thereof) of US military support to Ukraine. While the cessation of Western military aid to Ukraine would almost certainly result in Ukraine’s defeat, a recommitment by the US to support Ukraine in 2025 would possibly force the Kremlin to reappraise its attritional strategy. Until then, Putin’s speech is the clearest illustration to date of Russia’s attritional and protracted strategy, which is highly likely to continue the application of grinding offensives for the foreseeable future. (Source: Sibylline)

14 Jun 24. Dozens of Russian troops surrender to Ukraine counter attack. Dozens of Russian soldiers surrendered to Ukraine’s forces after they launched a counter attack around the northern city of Vovchansk, where heavy fighting has been raging since Moscow launched a fresh offensive.

Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade released a video from the front lines showing its troops taking at least 24 Russians as prisoners of war. The footage appeared to confirm earlier reports suggesting that dozens of Russians had surrendered to Ukraine around the town.

Russia opened a new front in the Ukraine war by pushing swiftly over the border into the Kharkiv region of northeastern Ukraine in early May with small groups of highly mobile units, forcing Ukraine to rush in troops from other areas.

But Ukraine’s forces have managed to stabilised the front line, and Moscow’s troops now appear to be bogged down after suffering heavy casualties. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

13 Jun 24. Biden, Zelenskyy Sign 10-Year Bilateral Security Agreement. President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today signed a 10-year bilateral security pact aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s ability to defend itself in the present while also deterring aggression in the future.

“Our goal is to strengthen Ukraine’s credible defense and deterrence capability for the long term,” Biden said during remarks shortly after the signing.

“A lasting peace for Ukraine must be underwritten by Ukraine’s own ability to defend itself now, and to deter future aggression anytime in the future,” the president continued, adding that the U.S. is going to help ensure Ukraine can do both.

Per the agreement, the U.S. and Ukraine will spend the next 10 years building and maintaining Ukraine’s credible defense and deterrence capability; strengthening Ukraine’s capacity to sustain its fight over the long term; accelerating Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration; and consulting in the event of a future Russian armed attack against Ukraine.

Biden said that the agreement also lays out the two countries’ shared vision for achieving a “just peace.”

” a peace rooted in the U.N. charter, and the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Biden said. ” a peace with a broad basis for it around the world that holds Russia accountable for the damage it has done in this war.”

During his remarks, Biden also said that the G7 recently achieved a “significant outcome” by freeing up some of the $280 billion in Russian assets that members of the G7 and European Union worked to freeze following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

“I’m very pleased to share that, this week, the G7 signed a plan to finalize and unlock $50 billion in the proceeds of those frozen assets, to put that money to work for Ukraine a reminder to Putin we’re not backing down,” Biden said.

” has been something that the United States has put a lot of energy and effort into, because we see the proceeds from these assets as being a valuable source of resources for Ukraine at a moment when Russia continues to brutalize the country — not just through military action on the front, but through the attempted destruction of its energy grid and its economic vitality,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters today.

In addition to the signing of the bilateral security agreement and the distribution of proceeds from unlocked Russian assets to Ukraine, Biden also said that the G7 has taken a third “major step” in support of Ukraine by coming to an agreement on sanctioning countries that are contributing to Russia’s war efforts.

“Collectively, this is a powerful set of actions;” Biden said, “and it will create a stronger foundation for Ukraine’s success.”

The G7 summit takes place in Italy’s Puglia region and runs through this Saturday. (Source: U.S. DoD)

13 Jun 24. Russia to deploy two variants of S-500 Prometheus air defense missile system in Ukraine. On April 23, 2024, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the armed forces would receive new military assets by year’s end, including the initial deployment of the S-500 Prometheus anti-aircraft missile system in two different configurations. Additional systems such as the S-400, S-300V4, Buk-M3, and Tor-M2U anti-aircraft missile systems, along with new generation radar stations, are also scheduled for delivery. Given the emphasis on air defense systems, it is likely that all these systems are intended for troops in Ukraine.

The S-500 air defense system’s response time of three to four seconds marks a substantial improvement over its predecessor, the S-400, which has a response time of nine to ten seconds. (Picture source: Russian media)

On April 23, 224, Shoigu announced plans for the Russian military-industrial complex to escalate weapon production in response to what he identifies as increased threats from Western countries. He also noted a significant reduction in the development timeline for these weapons, stating that what previously took five to eight years to produce is now being completed in four to seven months—a pace not seen since World War II.

On Russian media, Oleg Glazunov, an associate professor and expert from the Association of Military Political Scientists, spoke about the strategic importance of the new S-500 air defense system. Glazunov detailed that this system is designed to intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles and engage targets in near-Earth orbit. He claimed that the deployment of such advanced systems is intended to serve as a deterrent, particularly to NATO and American military strategists, by signaling the enhanced air defense capabilities of Russia.

The Russian-made S-500 Prometheus, also known as the 55R6M Triumfator-M, represents a significant advancement in the realm of air defense systems. Developed by Almaz-Antey, this latest generation system is designed to engage and neutralize a wide range of aerial threats, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), hypersonic cruise missiles, and low-orbit satellites, at altitudes up to 200 kilometers.

The S-500 Prometheus, initiated in 2009 with its first prototype completed by 2012, emerged from its predecessors with capabilities far surpassing earlier models. The Russian Armed Forces received their first pre-production prototypes in 2016, as part of a strategic enhancement of their defensive capabilities. The final phase of the S-500’s testing was conducted on February 22, 2024, demonstrating its ability to intercept hypersonic targets effectively, which are known for their high-speed, maneuverability, and ability to evade traditional missile defense systems. (Source: Google/Army Recognition)

13 Jun 24. Austin Underscores Commitment to Ukraine Security at Brussels Meeting. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III underscored today the commitment by the U.S. and its allies to helping Ukraine meet its urgent defense needs and bolster its long-term security amid what he said is a critical moment in Russia’s ongoing war of aggression.

As he met with the nearly 50-member U.S. coalition committed to backing Ukraine at NATO headquarters in Brussels, the secretary said Ukraine remains “in a tough fight” against Russia’s attempts to reshape the front lines.

“In Kharkiv and elsewhere, the Kremlin continues to intensify its bombardment of Ukraine’s cities and civilians,” Austin said. “And Ukraine urgently needs more air-defense capabilities to defend its skies.”

“But the Ukrainian people remain resilient and unbowed,” he said. “And Ukraine’s forces continue to impress the world with their skill and grit.”

Despite Russia’s latest offensive near Kharkiv, Ukraine has held strong on the front lines and continued to inflict heavy costs on the invading forces, Austin said.

Since the start of the war in February 2022, at least 350,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded, Austin said.

Russia has also faced staggering equipment losses. Ukrainian forces have destroyed more than 2,600 Russian combat vehicles across the front lines and severely degraded Russia’s naval capabilities in the Black Sea.

“That’s just another reminder of the price that Russia has paid for Putin’s imperial ambitions,” Austin said. “And it’s another reminder of Ukraine’s determination.

“And make no mistake: Ukraine’s partners around the world have its back,” he said.

Today’s meeting marked the 23rd iteration of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which has continued to work together to meet Ukraine’s urgent battlefield needs.

The group has expanded in size since being formed soon after the invasion. Today, the coalition welcomed its newest member, Argentina.

Today’s engagement followed Austin’s visit to France last week, where he and President Joe Biden met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Paris. There Biden announced a new package of security assistance for Ukraine, which is valued at $225m and includes air defense interceptors, artillery ammunition and other critical capabilities.

The latest provision is the sixth security assistance package announced by the U.S. since Biden signed a nearly $95bn national security supplemental into law in April. The supplemental includes humanitarian and security assistance funds for Israel and Taiwan in addition to Ukraine.

Austin said today that the flow of urgently needed aid has been critical to Ukraine’s ability to push back against Russia’s offensive near Kharkiv.

The White House also announced yesterday that Biden and Zelenskyy will sign a long-term security agreement aimed at addressing Ukraine’s security needs into the future.

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters yesterday that the agreement outlines “a clear vision of work with our allies and partners with Ukraine in order to continue to strengthen Ukraine’s credible defense and deterrence capability.”

Several other members of the UDCG have also signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine, reflecting a collective commitment to Ukraine’s long-term defense.

“Any lasting peace in Ukraine has to be underwritten by Ukraine’s own ability to defend itself and deter future aggression,” Sullivan said.

“And by signing this, we’ll also be sending Russia a signal of our resolve. If Vladimir Putin thinks that he can outlast the coalition supporting Ukraine, he’s wrong,” Sullivan said. “He just cannot wait us out, and this agreement will show our resolve and continued commitment.”

Biden and Zelenskyy are expected to sign the agreement while attending the Group of Seven summit in Brindisi, Italy.

The UDCG has also undertaken initiatives aimed at bolstering Ukraine’s long-term defense through the formation of targeted capability coalitions.

Thirteen members of the contact group are leading eight separate capability coalitions designed to drive Ukraine’s long-term force development. Those coalitions focus on critical capabilities that range from air-defense to artillery.

Austin said today that the group heard the capability coalition focused on bolstering Ukraine’s drone capabilities.

“This capability coalition is helping to expand Ukraine’s asymmetric capabilities,” Austin said, adding that the focus is essential as Russia relies on Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles to target Ukrainian citizens.

“This is just one of the eight capability coalitions, and they’re doing outstanding work,” Austin said. “Together, we’re helping Ukraine build a formidable future force. One that can deter aggression over the long haul.”

The coalition also continued ongoing discussions expanding the production of critical munitions and capabilities.

“Ladies and gentlemen, this is a critical moment,” Austin said as he kicked off the day’s discussions. “The stakes of this war are high. Ukraine’s survival is on the line. But so is all of our security.

“None of us would want to live in a world where Putin prevails,” he said. “And we would all be less secure if tyrants think that they can trample borders and cow their neighbors.”

Austin will also participate in a NATO defense ministers meeting on Friday.

While outlining the goals for the meeting in Brussels on Wednesday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said ministers will discuss progress toward meeting capability requirements for NATO’s new generation of regional defense plans.

The ministers will also discuss further ways of ensuring Ukraine’s long-term security, as well as ways to continue to strengthen NATO’s deterrence and defense.

“We will bolster our support to Ukraine, we will strengthen our defenses, and we will send a strong message of deterrence to our adversaries,” Stoltenberg said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

13 Jun 24. A month ahead of Washington’s NATO summit, where are Ukraine’s jets?

At last year’s NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, 11 member countries pledged to train Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16 fighter jet. It was a major decision, one that enabled the eventual choice to send the jets themselves, an upgrade to Ukraine’s air force that officials in Kyiv had wanted for more than a year.

But almost a year later, and only weeks before the next NATO summit, in Washington, those F-16s have yet to arrive. In fact, despite a commitment that those planes will start reaching Ukraine by the end of this summer, issues with their delivery are becoming clearer — from the number of pilots who will be able to fly them to crews ready to keep them working.

“The training pipeline on the F-16s is pretty meager,” said a senior U.S. defense official, speaking with reporters on the condition of anonymity to talk candidly.

F-16s hold the promise to firm up Ukraine’s self-defense. The fighters would bring its air force closer to NATO-style tactics and systems, making it easier to work with the alliance overall. And they could lengthen Ukraine’s range at a moment when other countries are dropping restrictions on what targets its military can choose.

“It gives them some options,” said CQ Brown, America’s top military officer, in a short interview this week.

And yet, it’s not sure how much of an option those fighters will be in the near-term. These are the two sides of delivering F-16s to Ukraine. One one hand, they could begin a long-term transformation of its airpower. But on the other, actually getting them there has proven frustratingly long-term as well.

“This is a huge undertaking,” said Jens Stoltenberg, secretary general of NATO.

The pipeline, the pilots

Stoltenberg spoke to a group of reporters near the doors of NATO’s headquarters in Brussels, shortly before a meeting of countries that gather each month to coordinate support for Kyiv.

Earlier in June, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy met with America’s Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Singapore. And according to a post on Zelenskyy’s social media, the two discussed the group of countries supplying F-16s.

The Netherlands and Denmark are leading that effort, though other states like Norway and Belgium are also involved. The number of planes committed this year totals around 60, and Ukraine should start receiving those by the end of the summer.

That said, there have been multiple kinks in the process to deliver them, and make sure they’re useful.

The first is training. Between Europe and the U.S. there are only a dozen or so Ukrainian pilots learning to fly the planes right now, said the American defense official.

“That’s just a handful of pilots, and that’s just the pilots,” the official said.

Almost as crucial are the other members of the crew, such as maintainers, who keep the plane working. Brown made a similar point in the interview, saying that Ukraine will only be able to use as many planes as it has crews.

Training at Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson, Arizona began last fall, and the first round of Ukrainian pilots graduated only weeks ago in late May. But finding spots for new ones has been difficult. There’s a small pool of Ukrainian pilots eligible for the training, which requires deep experience, and there’s already a queue of non-Ukrainian pilots in line as well.

A week before the meeting, Ukrainian officials told Politico that they had 30 or so pilots waiting for spots to start training but that none were available.

In a later press conference at NATO, Brown pushed back on the argument that European and American trainers are capped out.

“There is capacity,” he said.

The other issues are the length of the course itself — made more difficult by the highly technical English language training required — and finding a place to store them. Their usefulness will also depend on the stocks of munitions available to fire, which for other large weapons has been an issue throughout the war.

‘Wouldn’t want to rush it’

These issues aside, some analysts and defense officials are optimistic about what the jets could do for Ukraine’s force.

In a recent paper for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, U.S. military officers temporarily at the think tank argued that F-16s would threaten more Russian targets and help make Ukraine’s air force operate on standards similar to NATO’s — one of many goals as Kyiv pursues a spot in the alliance.

George Barros, who leads the Russia team at the Institute for the Study of War, told Defense News that the jets could be more useful considering the recent, if limited, policy change that allows Ukraine to fire across the border with Russia.

“We’ve written off the possibility of Ukrainians using air power in any meaningful way” to this point in the war, Barros said.

That could change, he argued, especially if the U.S. loosened its policy on striking into Russia even further.

In the interview on the way to Brussels, Brown was more cautious.

He, like other senior leaders in the Pentagon, urges people to think about how weapons and tactics work together rather than the effect of any one new piece of equipment.

“Just because they have the F-16s it’s not going to all of a sudden magically make things successful,” he said.

And that certainly won’t be the case, the other defense official argued, if the process moves faster than Ukraine can keep up with. Asked whether any planes would arrive by the Washington summit in July, the official said it would be better to wait if that meant they were more useful upon arrival.

“I wouldn’t want to rush it,” the official said.

(Source: Defense News)

13 Jun 24. A new wave of Euro-Atlantic armaments head to Ukraine.

Canadian armoured vehicles, Danish and Dutch CV90 support and Norwegian bomb launcher ammunition are among the latest show of Western backing.

Anew wave of Euro-Atlantic armaments are due to flow into the Ukraine’s Armed Forces inventory in the coming weeks and months.

Between 12-13 June 2024, the governments of Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway all announced their latest military assistance including armoured land vehicles and bomber ammunition.

Russia’s latest offensive along the Vovchansk direction in the north-east of Ukraine, leading toward Kharkiv, stretched Ukraine’s troops along the frontline in an effort to gain the initiative, which has proven largely unsuccessful following the flow of new military equipment from the West.

This new equipment represents a steady flow of the coveted military assistance needed to ward off the prospect of a greater Russian offensive. In the meantime, the enemy forces have reverted to playing for time once again, waiting for another chink in Western solidarity.

Canada

The first four of the 50 new Armoured Combat Support Vehicles (ACSVs) built by Canadian workers for donation to Ukraine are departing for Europe, where Ukrainian soldiers will be trained in their use over the summer.

The first ten of these vehicles are the ACVS ambulance variant. Other types include mobile repair, vehicle recovery, engineering support and command and control vehicles.

ACSVs are based on the LAV 6.0 and will replace the current LAV II Bison and M113 Tracked LAV fleets already in the Canadian Armed Forces inventory.

According to the open-source intelligence research group Oryx, one Canadian LAV Super Bison and 119 US-made M113s were destroyed by Russian forces in Ukraine.

So far Canada has donated 39 ACSVs, including add-on armour, a radio communication system, as well as in-service support including spare parts, maintenance services, technical manuals, and training. This donation package is valued at approximately C$245m ($178.2m).

Denmark and the Netherlands

Together Denmark and the Netherlands will jointly contribute €400m ($432.1m) to a Swedish fund set up to build CV90 infantry fighting vehicles for Ukraine. A large share of the vehicles will be produced in the Netherlands.

Over the course of more than two years of high intensity warfare only six Ukraine-operated CV90 vehicles have been destroyed, damaged or captured, Oryx found.

Developed by the Swedish company, BAE Systems Hagglunds, the CV90 is among the most widely operated infantry fighting vehicle in Europe, in service with Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland, Ukraine, as well as Sweden. The Czech Republic and Slovakia have also agreed deals to acquire the platform.

First entering into service in 1993, the CV90 has since been upgrade over its lifetime and is available in a number of variants. Versions of the CV90 family include the CV9040 with 40mm gun and the export variant, the CV9030 with a 30mm main armament.

Its all-welded steel hull can be upgraded with add-on armour, which protects against 30mm APFSDS (armour-piercing fin-stabilised discarding sabot) rounds.

Norway

“Ukraine’s need for firepower is extensive and urgent,” said the Norwegian Defence Minister Bjorn Arild Gram during his announcement of the aid.

Its 81mm bomber launcher ammunition worth Nkr480m ($45.2m), derived from Norway’s own inventory, “can quickly be transferred to Ukraine to help prevent a greater Russian advance,” Gram assured the press.

Bomb launchers are the lightest and most mobile of artillery weapons, and can be mounted on vehicles and portable.

These 81mm bomb launchers normally have a range of 5-6 kilometres and supplement the heavier artillery at shorter distances. Ukraine’s ammunition needs are extensive, and the bomb-thrower ammunition donated by Norway can be used by Ukraine in existing weapons.

(Source: army-technology.com)

13 Jun 24. New UK sanctions to crack down on Putin’s war machine. UK announces 50 new sanctions designations and specifications to degrade Putin’s war machine, in co-ordinated action with G7 partners to support Ukraine [ 13 June 2024]. UK announces 50 new sanctions designations and specifications to degrade Putin’s war machine, in co-ordinated action with G7 partners to support Ukraine.

New targets include ships in Putin’s shadow fleet, institutions at the heart of Russia’s financial system and suppliers supporting Russia’s military production.

These new sanctions, announced while the Prime Minister attends the G7 Leaders Summit in Italy, will bear down on Russia’s ability to fund and equip its war machine and show the UK’s steadfast support for Ukraine.

Today’s action includes the UK’s first sanctions targeting vessels in Putin’s shadow fleet, used by Russia to circumvent UK and G7 sanctions and continue unfettered trade in Russian oil.

As part of its enduring commitment to the region, the UK has today committed to providing £242m in bilateral assistance to Ukraine, to support immediate humanitarian, energy and stabilisation needs, and is also working with counterparts to agree a mechanism to bring forward the extraordinary profits stemming from immobilized Russian sovereign assets to the benefit of Ukraine.

Russia’s oil exports are Putin’s most critical revenue source for funding his illegal war in Ukraine. Tax on oil production collected by the Kremlin in 2023 amounted to 8.9 trillion roubles, or 31% of Russia’s total federal revenues. Today’s sanctions aim to disrupt and increase the costs of Russia’s efforts to bypass UK and G7 sanctions through its shadow fleet.

These new sanctions also target suppliers of munitions, machine tools, microelectronics, and logistics to Russia’s military, including entities based in China, Israel, Kyrgyzstan and Türkiye, along with ships which transport military goods from North Korea to Russia.

In addition, this new package cracks down on institutions at the heart of Russia’s financial system, including the Moscow Stock Exchange. This action is taken in coordination with the US, which designated the Moscow Stock Exchange on 12 June.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “The UK will always stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine in its fight for freedom. Today we are once more ramping up economic pressure through sanctions to bear down on Russia’s ability to fund its war machine. Putin must lose, and cutting off his ability to fund a prolonged conflict is absolutely vital.”

Foreign Secretary, David Cameron said: “UK sanctions are starving Putin of the revenue he desperately needs to fund his war chest and making it harder to supply his war machine. We will continue to work alongside our partners to increase economic pressure and demonstrate that the UK and the G7 will stand by Ukraine in this fight. So far, sanctions have deprived Russia of over $400bn worth of assets and revenues since February 2022. That’s equivalent to four more years of funding for the invasion. The UK has sanctioned over 2,000 individuals and entities under our Russia sanctions regime. This includes 29 banks accounting for over 90% of the Russian banking sector and over 130 oligarchs and family members who had a combined net worth around £147 bn at the time of the invasion. Over £20 bn of UK-Russia bilateral trade (2021 figures) is now under full or partial sanction. There has been a 99% fall in Russian imports into the UK, and a 73% fall in UK exports to Russia.”

(Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

12 Jun 24. Ukraine’s newly launched 150th Mechanized Brigade receive full upgraded combat vehicles. The soldiers of the newly launched 150th Mechanized Brigade showcased the heavy armored vehicles transferred to their military formation. The press service of the 150th Mechanized Brigade published the photo. The new Ukrainian brigade, formed at the beginning of 2024, has become mechanized and received a mix of modernized Soviet and Ukrainian armored vehicles.

BRDM2 and T64 BV just arrived to equip 150th mechanised brigade of Ukrainian armed forces(Picture source: 150th Mechanized Brigade )

The press service of the Brigade, displaying the equipment used in exercises, reports that the soldiers of the 150th Brigade are improving their combat vehicle driving skills. Regular training allows our military to overcome obstacles as efficiently as possible on any terrain. In particular, the published images show the now-rare BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles equipped with a 30 mm 2A42 automatic cannon. Judging by the photo, the vehicles were overhauled before being handed over to the military.

In addition to the BMP-2, the unit also has at least one modernized Ukrainian BMP-1TS, which received a new Spear-Sintez remote weapon station instead of the old 73 mm cannon. The Spear-Sintez remote weapon station is equipped with thermal imaging optics, a powerful stabilizer, and carries a 30 mm ZTM-1 cannon, a KBA-117 automatic grenade launcher, and a Stugna ATGM.

The unit’s tracked armor was also supplemented by T-64BV tanks. They underwent major repairs and were upgraded to the mod.2017 variant, judging by the new reactive armor installation scheme and the absence of the Loona IR projector. (Source: Google/https://armyrecognition.com/)

12 Jun 24. Netherlands to supply first Dutch-built CV90 IFVs to Ukraine in 2026. The Netherlands will deliver the first Dutch-built and financed BAE Systems CV90 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine in 2026, the Dutch Ministry of Defence said.

The Dutch are investing €400m (U.S. $430m) in a Swedish fund to build the CV90s for Ukraine, the government said June 7. That amount is the Dutch share and will pay for “several tens” of vehicles, Netherlands Ministry of Defence spokesman Kaj Leers told Defense News in an emailed reply to questions.

The Dutch government also agreed with Sweden to set up CV90 production in the Netherlands, and expects to partly produce at least 180 of the vehicles, according to Leers. Negotiations are ongoing for local firm Van Halteren Technologies and a “whole chain” of Dutch suppliers to handle “an important part” of production, he said.

The Netherlands is joining an initiative by Denmark and Sweden to provide Ukraine’s armed forces with modern armor to fight off Russia’s invasion. The CV90 is “just what is needed at the front,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a statement in August on the occasion of a visit to Stockholm, and Ukrainian soldiers have reportedly praised the Swedish IFV for its armor, heat-signature reducing camouflage and firepower.

Sweden and Denmark signed a joint declaration in December to send additional CV90s to Ukraine, after an initial Swedish donation of 50 vehicles last year. Ukraine and Sweden in February discussed terms and conditions for purchasing more of the vehicles.

Van Halteren will play “an important role” in supplying dozens of new CV90s to Ukraine, Sweden and possibly Denmark, which are buying vehicles to the same modernized standard as the Netherlands, Dutch State Secretary for Defence Christophe van der Maat said in a video posted on X on Friday. The Defence Ministry together with the Economic Affairs Ministry and Van Halteren is looking how the Dutch CV90 production line can be scaled up further, according to Van der Maat.

“We want to really help the Dutch know-how contribute to the growing requirement for CV90 fighting vehicles in Europe,” Van der Maat said.

The Netherlands last week took delivery of the first of its CV90s that are part of a more than €660-m mid-life upgrade aimed at keeping the IFV operational through to 2039. The Dutch are upgrading 122 vehicles, with final delivery scheduled for 2027.

The midlife upgraded for the Royal Netherlands Army is being done by BAE Systems Hägglunds in cooperation with Van Halteren, and includes a new turret with improved networking and observational capabilities, such as an electronic-optical panoramic sight. The upgrade also adds the Spike anti-tank missile by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, and 90 vehicles will get the Iron Fist active protection system from Elbit Systems.

BAE Systems signed a contract with Sweden in May for new CV90s built to the Dutch upgrade standard to replace the vehicles donated to Ukraine. Slovakia and Czechia last year agreed to buy CV90s in deals totaling more than €3.5 bn. Leers declined to say whether the Netherlands expects to order additional new CV90s once local production has started.

The Dutch Ministry of Defence also declined to say whether the CV90s for Ukraine will be delivered with a cannon. The CV90s operated by the Dutch Army are equipped with a 35mm Bushmaster III auto-cannon, while Sweden operates a version of the CV90 equipped with a 40mm Bofors auto-cannon in a stabilized turret, which is the version first delivered to Ukraine.

Separately, the Netherlands said Tuesday it’s buying 120mm mortar systems from BAE Systems Hägglunds to mount on its CV90s, replacing the unmounted 81mm mortars currently in use with the Dutch army. The mortar systems will be installed on the vehicles after their mid-life upgrade, which should be completed in 2028. Sweden also uses the 120mm mortar on its CV90s, according to the Ministry of Defence.

The new mortars will have a range of 7 to 12 kilometers, compared with 6 kilometers for the current system, as well as a higher rate of fire, and can be operated from inside the vehicle, the ministry said. The goal is to increase accuracy by adding GPS-guided munition. (Source: Defense News)

12 Jun 24. Rheinmetall and Ukraine sign agreement to expand their strategic cooperation. Rheinmetall AG and Ukraine, represented by the Minister of Strategic Industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin, signed a Memorandum of Understanding to expand their strategic cooperation during the “Ukraine Recovery Conference” in Berlin. The agreement aims to identify and develop further areas for closer cooperation between the Ukrainian defense industry and the Düsseldorf-based technology group.

Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall AG: “With this agreement we confirm our intention to continue our cooperation in the coming years and create a corresponding framework. Specifically, we are already in talks to establish a joint venture for the production of artillery ammunition in Ukraine. We also want to hand over the first Lynx infantry fighting vehicles to the country this year and start manufacturing these systems in Ukraine in the near future.”

Oleksandr Kamyshin, Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine: “The Ukrainian defence industry has been in decline for decades. But today it is reviving and making a significant contribution to Ukraine’s economic recovery – also thanks to partners like Rheinmetall. We are very grateful for your support and your confidence in the Ukrainian defence industry and our gunsmiths. And, of course, we will share the lessons we have learned with our partners. One day Ukraine will join the EU and NATO – and both organisations will have a strong partner with a strong defence industry that does not compete but complements. Let’s build the Arsenal of the free world together.”

In addition to possible direct deliveries by Rheinmetall, the (re)industrialization of national manufacturing know-how is also intended to make a significant contribution to Ukraine’s sustainable defence capability as part of the cooperation.

A framework agreement yet to be concluded for the delivery of several hundred Lynx combat vehicles to Ukraine would also include training, maintenance and repair services.

In February 2024, the two partners had already declared their intention to manufacture a six-digit number of 155mm rounds, including the corresponding propelling charges, per year in a “Ukrainian center of excellence for ammunition”. Rheinmetall is to hold 51% of the shares in the joint venture, with the Ukrainian partner holding 49%.

12 Jun 24. U.S. Lifts Weapons Ban on Ukraine’s Azov Brigade.

The U.S. State Department has removed restrictions on transferring American weapons and providing training to the Ukrainian Azov Brigade. The decision follows a thorough review process under the Leahy Law, which found no evidence of gross human rights violations by the brigade, now formally known as the 12th Special Forces Brigade within Ukraine’s National Guard.

The change marks a significant shift from the previous U.S. policy that had barred the Azov Brigade from receiving military aid due to its origins and alleged ties to far-right groups. Established as a volunteer battalion in 2014, Azov initially drew members from nationalist circles, leading to accusations of neo-Nazi affiliations. However, the unit’s current leadership and members have been actively working to distance themselves from these past associations.

In an Instagram statement, the Azov Brigade declared, “This is a new page in our unit’s history. Azov is becoming even more powerful, even more professional, and even more dangerous for occupiers.” The brigade emphasized that the U.S. decision would enhance their combat capabilities and help preserve the lives and health of their personnel.

The State Department’s statement clarified that comprehensive vetting had found no credible evidence of human rights abuses by the Azov Brigade, allowing the U.S. to lift the restrictions. This decision comes at a critical time for Ukraine, which faces ongoing shortages of ammunition and personnel in its fight against Russian forces.

The brigade gained prominence for its role in defending Mariupol during the initial stages of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The protracted defense of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, despite overwhelming odds and severe conditions, has made the unit a symbol of Ukrainian resistance.

Moscow has condemned the U.S. decision, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accusing Washington of “flirting with neo-Nazis” and asserting that the move reflects America’s willingness to use any means to undermine Russia. Russia has long used the Azov Brigade’s controversial past to fuel its narrative of “denazifying” Ukraine as a justification for its invasion. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

11 Jun 24. Finland sees first NATO deployment as its jets join mission in Romania. Finland on Tuesday made its first deployment for NATO since joining the alliance in April 2023, sending seven F-18 fighter jets to a military base in southeastern Romania where they will conduct air shielding missions with Romanian and British jets.

A Finnish Air Force commander said the mission would help speed up Finland’s integration into NATO.

“I’m sure that during this enhanced air policing air shielding mission our integration into NATO will take a big leap forward,” Johan Anttila, commander of Finland’s Karelia Air Wing told soldiers on the tarmac at the Mihail Kogalniceanu base.

“We as a team will have learned a lot and all this will boost NATO deterrence and defence.”

Finland’s accession, ending seven decades of military non-alignment, roughly doubled the length of the border the North Atlantic Treaty Organization shares with Russia and bolstered its eastern flank amid Moscow’s ongoing war in Ukraine.

Romania, a NATO member since 2004, was among the first alliance states to approve Finland’s accession. Romania shares a 650-km (400-mile) border with Ukraine and has had Russian drone fragments stray into its territory repeatedly as Moscow attacks Ukrainian ports just across the Danube River that separates the countries.

It also hosts a NATO-backed regional F-16 training hub where Ukrainian pilots will soon begin learning how to fly F-16 jets provided by the Netherlands. (Source: Reuters)

12 Jun 24. US to send rare Patriot $1bn air defence system to Ukraine. The United States will send another $1.1bn Patriot missile air defence system to Ukraine in the coming days as the war-ravaged nation struggles to fend off Russian attacks on its cities and energy grid.

The new Patriot system would be at least the second that the US has sent to Ukraine.

The Patriot, considered the United States’ best air-defence weapons, can shoot down incoming missiles before they hit their intended targets and is already used by Israel and Saudi and Emirati forces in Yemen.

The critical systems are considered incredibly rare, even for the United States. Pentagon officials refuse to disclose how many are in its arsenal, but one senior military official said that the Army has deployed only 14 of them, in the US and around the world.

Patriot batteries can project defences out some 600 miles and are often used to target and shoot down long-range ballistic missiles and aircraft from hundreds of miles away.

The Patriot is by far the most expensive single weapon supplied by the US to Ukraine, with the total cost around $1.1bn (£784m): $400m (£303m) for the system and $690m (£541m) for the missiles. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

12 Jun 24. Russia says its non-strategic nuclear drills involve Iskander missiles. Russia’s non-strategic nuclear exercises involving the Leningrad military district and the navy make use of Iskander missiles, its defence ministry said on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, Russia said it started a second stage of drills to practice deployment of tactical nuclear weapons alongside Belarusian troops, after what Moscow called threats from Western powers.

“The personnel of the missile formation of the Leningrad Military District are practicing combat training tasks,” the ministry said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app.

These included obtaining special training ammunition for the Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system, equipping launch vehicles with them and covertly advancing to the designated position area for preparations for missile launches, it added.

“The crews of navy ships involved in the training will equip sea-based cruise missiles with special mock warheads and enter designated patrol areas,” the ministry said. (Source: Reuters)

10 Jun 24. Ukraine may keep some F-16s abroad for protection from Russian strikes. Ukraine may keep some of the F-16 fighter jets it’s set to receive from its Western allies at foreign bases to protect them from Russian strikes, a senior Ukrainian military officer said Monday.

Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway have committed to providing Ukraine with over 60 U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets to help it fend off Russian attacks. Ukrainian pilots are currently undergoing training to fly the warplanes ahead of the deliveries expected to start later this year.

Serhii Holubtsov, head of aviation within Ukraine’s air force, said that “a certain number of aircraft will be stored at secure air bases outside of Ukraine so that they are not targeted here.”

Holubtsov told the U.S. government-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that those F-16s could be used to replace damaged aircraft as they undergo repairs as well as for training Ukrainian pilots abroad.

“This way, we can always have a certain number of aircraft in the operational fleet that corresponds to the number of pilots we have,” he said. “If there are more pilots, there will be more aircraft in Ukraine.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Moscow could consider launching strikes at facilities in NATO countries if they host the warplanes used in Ukraine.

“If they are stationed at air bases outside the Ukrainian borders and used in combat, we will have to see how and where to strike the assets used in combat against us,” Putin said last year. “It poses a serious danger of NATO being further drawn into the conflict.”

In March, the Russian leader again warned Ukraine’s Western allies against providing air bases from where the F-16s could launch sorties against the Kremlin’s forces. Those bases would become a “legitimate target,” he said.

“F-16s are capable of carrying nuclear weapons, and we will also need to take that into account while organizing our combat operations,” Putin stated.

On Monday, Andrei Kartapolov, the head of the defense committee in the Russian Parliament’s lower house told the state RIA Novosti news agency that NATO bases hosting Ukrainian F-16s would be “legitimate targets” for Moscow if the warplanes use them to launch attacks on Russia.

The F-16s require a high standard of runways and reinforced hangars to protect them from attacks on the ground. It’s not clear how many Ukrainian air bases can meet those requirements, and Russia would be certain to quickly target a few that could accommodate them once the jets arrive.

Holubtsov noted that the F-16s will help protect front-line and border regions from Russian glide bombs that have inflicted significant damage to both troops and residential areas, including Kharkiv. Glide bombs are heavy Soviet-era bombs fitted with precision guidance systems and launched from aircraft flying out of range of air defenses.

“I think we will succeed, first of all, in pushing back the aircraft that drop glide bombs farther from the contact line,” he said. “If we manage to push them back at least another 19-31 miles, this can already be considered a turning point and an achievement, if not of superiority, then of parity in the airspace.”

Ukraine’s Western allies are trying to bolster military support for Kyiv as Russian troops have launched attacks along the more than 620-mile frontline, taking advantage of a lengthy delay in U.S. military aid. Ukraine is currently fighting to hold back a Russian push near its second-largest city of Kharkiv, less than 20 miles from the border.

Russian troops have also continued their slow offensive in the eastern Donetsk region. On Monday, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed that the Kremlin’s forces had captured the village of Staromaiorske, the claim that hasn’t been confirmed by Kyiv and couldn’t be independently verified.

Ukraine has struck back with regular missile and drone attacks on Moscow-occupied territories and areas inside Russia.

In the latest strike, Ukrainian forces hit Russian air defense systems in Dzhankoy, Chornomorske and Yevpatoriya in the Moscow-occupied Crimea with missiles, Ukraine’s General Staff said Monday. The Russian Defense Ministry hasn’t commented on the Ukrainian claim, which couldn’t be independently confirmed.

The U.S. and other NATO allies have responded to the latest Russian offensive by allowing Ukraine to use weapons they deliver to Kyiv to carry out limited attacks inside Russia. The decision could potentially impede Moscow’s ability to concentrate its troops for a bigger offensive near Kharkiv and in other border areas.

Last week, Putin responded by warning that Moscow “reserves the right” to arm adversaries of the West worldwide. “If they supply (weapons) to the combat zone and call for using these weapons against our territory, why don’t we have the right to do the same?” Putin said.

He didn’t specify where such arms might be sent. The U.S. has said that Russia has turned to North Korea and Iran to beef up its stock of relatively simple weapons, but Moscow could dip into its stock of high-tech missiles to share with adversaries of the West if Putin decides to fulfill his threat. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Military Times/AP)

11 Jun 24. Opening of the maintenance and repair centre in Ukraine with political support. The political opening of the Rheinmetall Ukrainian Defense Industry LLC maintenance and repair centre in western Ukraine took place yesterday (10 June 2024). On this occasion, the Ukrainian Minister of Strategic Industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin, visited the site there: “We strive to develop our production capabilities together with our allies and believe that the Ukrainian defence industry is a part of the European defence industry, which strengthens the system of collective security of the European Union. Therefore, the opening of a joint service center with Rheinmetall is not only a step towards the Victory of Ukraine, but also an important stage in the construction of the arsenal of the Free World.”

Marder infantry fighting vehicles are already being maintenanced and overhauled at the hub. In the future, Leopard 1 and Leopard 2 main battle tanks and other German-made systems will also be repaired at other locations in Ukraine.

Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall AG: “It is a matter close to our hearts to provide Ukraine with effective and reliable support. When it comes to supplying spare parts, our top priority is to maximise availability and ensure rapid replenishment. To achieve this, we utilise existing channels via original manufacturers, process material ourselves and with partners. We are also reactivating original supply chains and integrating local production in Ukraine.”

“The opening of the first joint service center with Rheinmetall in Ukraine is crucial for strengthening our defence capabilities. This facility will allow us to ensure quick repairs and maintenance of German equipment directly on Ukrainian soil, significantly enhancing the efficiency of our Armed Forces. We are grateful to our German partners for their trust and support, which enable us to confidently move towards victory and integrate into the European collective security system”, added Dmytro Klimenkov, Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine.

Rheinmetall is utilising existing local infrastructure, but has also brought special tools, spare parts and other equipment to the hub. Last year, Ukrainian specialists were trained at Rheinmetall sites in Germany in the repair of combat vehicles, including industrial mechanics and mechatronics engineers, for example. These personnel then returned to Ukraine and worked there on the maintenance and repair of the relevant systems.

The joint venture Rheinmetall Ukrainian Defense Industry LLC was founded in October 2023. The announcement was made at the German-Ukrainian Economic Forum in Berlin, in the presence of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Schmyhal.

10 Jun 24. Inside Ukraine, startups try to edge Russia in the electronic warfare race. On the ground in Ukraine, Breaking Defense got a close-up look at a trio of startups taking the lessons from the front and trying to give Kyiv an edge in the ongoing electronic warfare duel with Russia’s forces.

At just over 600 meters up over the Russian line, right around sunset, the video feed from the surveillance drone went jagged. “Do you remember dial-up internet? Something like that,” recounts Ivan Kaunov, who was piloting the system at the time.

“I realized I couldn’t give a command to my drone,” he told Breaking Defense. “I thought, I’ll try to give at least one more command, one of the easiest: to lower altitude to a minimum, and then at that altitude, if I’m lucky enough, then that bastard will have GPS.”

It was not the first time Kaunov wrestled with an errant drone. He’s been in rotations at the front, fighting for his native Ukraine, on and off since being mobilized in April 2022.

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The drone was set to automatically head back to its launch site — if it had clean GPS access. But GPS is an increasingly rare commodity at the front, so when he lost the visual link and all subsequent contact with his drone, he knew there was nothing to do but wait. Around midnight, “this bastard comes back,” he says, chuckling at his own luck.

It’s become axiomatic that the frontline between Russian and Ukrainian forces is the most physically brutal that Europe has seen since WWII. In terms of casualties and misery, it seems out of place in the modern era. At the same time, that frontline is almost certainly the most signal-dense conflict zone in human history.

Drones revolutionized fighting in the first years of the war, and Ukraine hustled to build a home-grown industry. But the recent focus has now shifted to intense electronic warfare being used to aid or disrupt not only drone operations but basic communication between fighters. And just as with the rise of Ukraine’s drone efforts, local inventors are stepping up with homemade solutions to try and give their countrymen on the front lines an edge.

The Ukrainian government has leaned into these small experimental teams in the same way the war effort depends on the continuous work of individual volunteers. Last year, the Ministries of Defense and Digital Transformation announced Brave1, a joint funding and support platform for Ukraine’s defense tech.

“Most of these means are short-range EW, designed to protect the military on the front lines directly,” wrote Nataliia Kushnerska, the project lead of Brave1, in a statement on the latest electronic warfare projects to Breaking Defense.

Kushnerska noted more than 100 electronic warfare projects registered with Brave1, including more than 50 developers and manufacturers. Nine of these projects have “been codified in accordance with NATO standards” and are aiming for government contracts internationally.

Kaunov is one of many Ukrainians in the war who is trying to apply and scale his experience operating drones. He recently got approval for $25,000 in Brave1 funding, for a startup called Buntar Aerospace, which produces both the Buntar-1 drone and software that streamlines offline operations for a range of drones.

In addition to Kaunov, Breaking Defense talked with two of these Brave1-backed startups, whose technology is being developed, tested and sent out to the field on a continuous basis, to better understand the EW battle taking place in the trenches of the world’s largest military conflict.

Falcons: Tracking Radio Signals In The Sky

“This war showed us many more radio signals than ever before,” Svitlana Braslavska, who runs marketing and operations for Ukrainian firm Falcons, tells Breaking Defense.

Falcons sells the Eters, three-piece stations that parse nearby radio signals, “not only drone signals but also repeaters, different technical equipment, big drones, little drones, radio stations — all radio signals in our range,” Braslavska says. Making sense of the electrical chaos — finding the threat signal in the noise — can provide a decisive front-line edge.

Yehor — the firm’s CEO and an active soldier, who asked to be identified only by a first name — claims the systems sort those signals with a level of tactical precision missing from today’s battlefield. The first Eters got their test runs thanks to Yehor himself, who has been fighting all along the line, proselytizing the Eters on the way.

In their set-up, the stations are fairly simple tripods that reach into the sky, with a base pegged in with tent stakes. One stands on a hill looking out over the south side of Kyiv, where a motocross racing area bumps up against a training ground where men in camo are running drills.

Drones periodically zip overhead, most of which Yehor identifies immediately as FPVs — larger than the DJI Mavics.

He and tech lead on the project, Oleksandr Barabash, show off an interface that displays flashes of red across a radar screen as it catches signals of various stripes — some from drones passing, and even low-band levels from 5G cellphones, if the settings are right.

There are now dozens of the systems with various units at the frontlines, he says.

Each of the UAVs that both the Russian and Ukrainian sides have integrated into combat puts out its own “fingerprint” of a signal, Barabash says.

“If you’re tracking them in real time, and if you can draw a line, where they’re coming from and when they’re going to you, you can determine whether it’s our drone or an enemy drone,” Barabash notes. “So basically, you have to keep tracking those in real time and we’re talking about big numbers, fascinating data. If you grow the data, you can track basically every drone up in the air.”

The key virtue: thinking small, a common theme in Ukraine’s military inventiveness. These systems are more mobile and cheaper than other systems that the Ukrainians use to monitor broader spectra — meaning far more information slips through the cracks. Yehor packs his Eter up in about the time it takes to take down a tent.

Falcons touts that they have gotten production up to 10 of their three-towered stations per month. Their goal for the next three months is to nail down a government contract beyond the Brave1 funding that will allow them to expand production — while also making smaller systems.

That production is, however, taking place in homes or small workshops. Many of the mass-produced components are imported, as large factories in Ukraine often fall victim to Russian missiles.

“It doesn’t make sense right now to build a new Ukrainian military industry base,” says Yehor.

Despite a great deal of intrigue about revolutionary encryption software, the classic walkie-talkie remains an absolute must for secure communications along the front. And like with Falcons, the key development is not designing the latest and greatest systems — it’s distributing models across the line.

The most popular option today, says Misha Rudominsky of local startup Himera, is inexpensive Motorolas like the XT460. But, “even Motorola would say, ‘these weren’t designed for these kinds of situations,’” Rudominsky tells Breaking Defense.

Meanwhile, the more advanced signal-hopping and encrypted walkie talkies are prohibitively expensive — and beyond that, unwieldy.

“The Western way of fighting a war involves a small, specialized [system],” he says. “They don’t really care how easy it is to use.”

To bridge the gap, Himera says it applies the philosophy of consumer electronics to war with encrypted signal-hopping walkie talkies that it can get into the hands of masses of troops. In addition to a lower cost, a key advantage, says Rudominsky, is ease of use, with an owner’s manual of around 10 pages.

Despite shying away from insecure cellular networks and lacking a keyboard, they can link with cell phones via Bluetooth, both to configure their transmissions and to allow soldiers to text — which goes from a convenience to a necessity in the din of artillery fire, for example.

Himera says its walkie talkies can operate by linking with neighboring systems. They expand their ranges via mesh networks — effectively chains that can expand far beyond the range of any individual system. Rudominsky says that he’s known soldiers to hang a Himera from drones that they send up over a treeline or other rough terrain to get to the next stop over.

There are, he says, 3,000 of Himera’s walkie talkies in use already, with a new version, the G1 Pro launching in the next month.

In addition to gunfire, a UAV in the sky today faces a wilderness of jammers and spoofers — signals that impersonate satellites, with the result that they skew a drone’s sense of location, like those constantly bedeviling Kaunov.

Until recently, the most spoofers he had seen on the front at one time was six. Many frontline drones are programmed not to run on GPS guidance if they were getting information from fewer than seven satellites. Ivan noted with horror the moment that he realized that Russia was using 15 spoofers at one point on the front — meaning it would be virtually impossible to receive and rely on a set of true signals for navigation.

“You just have to accept the reality that you do not have reliable GPS,” says Kaunov.

Indeed, any civilian who comes up even in cities near the front, from Kharkiv to Kramatorsk, will notice pretty quickly that even phone GPS becomes remarkably unreliable, showing a location sometimes miles away.

Kaunov’s response: Take everything lo-fi. Beyond the physical drone — the Buntar-1, or “Rogue One,” a direct Star Wars reference — Buntar works on software that programs missions so that the drone can operate increasingly freely from the operator.

Inspired by his experience sending commands to drones with the expectation that he won’t have any linkage with them for long stretches, the Buntar software allows a pilot to pre-program routes and actions for their drones so that they do not remain dependent on the ongoing control — especially FPV — that the Russian invasion has made famous.

Principally, that entails using autonomous visual guidance rather than GPS. And rather than sending back ongoing information, the drone can function as basically a camcorder, recording visual information in a memory card to be reviewed when it makes it back to base.

That forgoes the evocative video game effect of FPV operations, but if footage isn’t broadcast in a signal and is instead stored on a memory card in a drone, it’s almost impossible to tamper with without physically taking the drone down — which admittedly happens all the time.

It’s not a perfect solution, but it’s one that allows operators to keep the fight going. And that is largely what all three of the startups above, as well as their compatriots across the line and the country, aim for: a way to stay in the fight and give their countrymen an edge, even if it’s a small or temporary one.

Lessons Learned, On Both Sides

These firms are young start-ups, so their ambitions for new developments are extensive and sometimes rosy.

Falcons and Buntar are both advertising more artificial intelligence in their software for respectively, recognizing signals and scenery. Falcons’ next stage of development is progressively miniaturizing its stations. Models that fit in a backpack are on the way. Yehor waxes poetic about a version that can be reduced to receivers that affix to solders’ helmets, like antennae on army ants.

Buntar, meanwhile, is trying to adapt its software to a wider range of drones and more precise missions.

The laundry list of plans for Ukrainian comms firms are contingent upon inhumanly rapid development — and waves of foreign investment, which they are overtly searching for.

But, in the words of Kaunov, “Let’s just acknowledge the fact that Ukrainians are very inventive.”

One challenge, says Samuel Bendett, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is that Russia is getting to see firsthand how this technology is used, and is incorporating those lessons almost as quickly as the Ukranians can scrap their way to another idea.

“The problem, of course in Ukraine, is that it’s a mirror image,” Bendett tells Breaking Defense. “And as soon as a tactic has been proven successful by one side, it’s copied and amplified by another side. Which prompts the original side to develop countermeasures, which prompts the other side to develop countermeasures against those countermeasures. The technological race is ongoing, so Ukraine’s advantages normally don’t last long.”

While Ukrainian sources have been highlighting advances in Russian EW recently, that is largely a means of advertising the problems facing troops – one that Russian sources, much less likely to be picked up by Western media, are replicating in reverse.

“It’s the same kind of narrative applied by both sides, maybe to amplify the threat and to highlight their own effort,” says Bendett. It belies a more embarrassing problem: “Most drones in this war are lost from electronic warfare fratricide.”

The Changing Lines

Like many of Ukraine’s soldiers, Kaunov finds himself frequently bouncing around the country, alternating between Buntar in Kyiv and the bunkers at the front, with little notice between calls from his commander to drive himself back to the line.

A relatively sleepless existence, but it at least is an improvement upon the early days of the war, when he found himself in machine gun range, lamenting the lack of artillery to provide covering fire.

“Once you were shooting with your machine guns, you disclose your position, and then specifically in this position Russian would strike back with a lot of artillery,” he explains. “And trying to explain to our artillery guys on the radio where the enemy is, lots of time I would hear, ‘we’re out of ammo.’ And it was like, God, it’s 10 o’clock in the morning. You’re out of ammo? It’s going to be a long day.”

Kaunov’s turn to drones is symbolic of why Ukraine has taken the war electronic — an attempt to escape or at least limit the misery and continued exposure of the trenches to which soldiers like he and Yehor still have to return constantly.

A coalition of nations have banded together to supply Ukraine with classic arms and ammunition that it struggles to produce en masse on its own. Some are providing weapons for Ukraine’s electronic warfare as well. But small Ukrainian teams like these offer the quickest response time to the constant granular evolutions in EW that their countrymen face. In that war, help is coming from much closer to home. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Breaking Defense.com)

11 Jun 24. Russia and Belarus start second stage of tactical nuclear drills, ministry says. Russian and Belarusian troops have started the second stage of tactical nuclear drills in Russia, Russia’s defence ministry said on Tuesday.

The ministry said the drills were aimed at ensuring that the two countries’ military personnel and equipment were ready to protect their sovereignty and territorial integrity.

“During the exercise, issues of joint training of units of the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus for the combat use of non-strategic nuclear weapons will be worked out,” the defence ministry said. Russian President Vladimir Putin last month ordered his military to practise the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons after what Moscow said were threats from France, Britain and the United States. (Source: Reuters)

10 Jun 24. Ukraine says it hit Russian air defence systems in occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s military said it damaged three Russian surface-to-air defence systems overnight in missile attacks on the Moscow-occupied Crimea peninsula. The attacks struck an S-400 system in Dzhankoi and two less advanced S-300 systems near Yevpatoriya and Chornomorske resulting in “significant losses” for Russian air defences, Ukraine’s general staff said on Monday.

Reuters could not independently verify the statement. There was no immediate comment from the Russian defence ministry. Local Telegram channels reported explosions near Dzhankoi and Yevpatoriya.

Ukraine’s military said its strikes shut down radars on the Russian systems and detonated ammunition in the area.

“None of our missiles were intercepted by the enemy’s ‘highly effective’ air defences,” it said on its Telegram account.

Russia has repeatedly launched ballistic missiles on southern Ukraine from the Crimea peninsula that Moscow seized and occupied in 2014.

Over the last two years of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has in turn carried out multiple air and naval strikes on Russian targets on the peninsula and caused significant damage to Moscow’s fleet in the Black Sea.

Ukraine said it damaged two ferries there on May 30 and halted their operations between the peninsula and the Russian mainland. The vessels had been used as a backup for an 18-km Russian-built bridge that Ukraine has also previously attacked. (Source: Reuters)

10 Jun 24. Soviet-era Loaf van becomes Russia’s main battlefield resupply vehicle in Ukraine. As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine rumbles on, the toll of war continues to mount, with Russia losing thousands of trucks and armoured vehicles to the combat – at a rate that manufacturing capacity cannot replace.

In response, the Bukhanka – which roughly translates to Loaf in English – a Soviet Union-era van designed in 1965, has become Russia’s main battlefield resupply vehicle.

Officially named the UAZ-452, it is so-called for its resemblance to a loaf of bread.

Devoid of creature comforts and shock absorbers, a sparse interior with rigid seating and little else, its best feature is its four-wheel drive capability.

Even with military modifications, the van has a 2.7-litre engine good for 112 horsepower, meaning it is not going anywhere fast, making it an easy target for drone swarms.

The Bukhanka is a simple, rugged off-roader, but that is not enough to survive on a modern battlefield – each one having an average life expectancy of three trips to the frontline carrying supplies.

They will eventually be phased out in favour of the Chinese Desert Cross 1,000 all-terrain vehicle.

But the widespread use of the Loaf reveals a lot about how Russia is faring in Ukraine. (Source: forces.net)

10 Jun 24. Russia takes control of Staromaiorske in eastern Ukraine, defence ministry says. The Russian military has taken control of the village of Staromaiorske in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, the Russian defence ministry said on Monday. Ukraine’s military made no such acknowledgment in a report issued late on Monday. It said Russian forces had tried to move forward near Staromaiorske and a nearby village, Vodiane, “but were unsuccessful. The defence forces control the situation.”

Both villages lie southwest of the Russian-held main town in the region, also called Donetsk.

A popular Ukrainian war blog, DeepState, said Russian troops had made advances around Staromaiorske. Reuters could not independently verify battlefield reports from either side. Russia has made incremental gains in Donetsk region, a focal point along the 1,000-km (600-mile) long front line, since capturing the key town of Avdiivka in February after many months of heavy fighting. (Source: Reuters)

07 Jun 24. KNDS will set up shop in Ukraine to repair heavy weapons, make ammo. KNDS, the French-German maker of the Leopard tank and the Caesar howitzer, will set up a unit in Ukraine that will work with local firms to set up equipment maintenance, manufacture spare parts using 3D printing, and produce 155mm artillery shells.

KNDS hopes to establish the subsidiary in Ukraine later in June, following months of talks, Chairman Philippe Petitcolin said on the sidelines of a signing ceremony in Paris attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecornu and KNDS France CEO Nicolas Chamussy.

“The signature marks the beginning of a new era between us and Ukraine, since we’ll have a full subsidiary of KNDS, both the German and French parts, and from there we’ll be able to cooperate with Ukrainian companies,” Petitcolin said. “We’re in discussions with a lot of companies.”

Ukraine operates 386 pieces of KNDS equipment, particularly Leopard tanks and Caesar cannons, and the company still has 250 pieces to deliver based on orders received, which translates to a requirement for “lots and lots of support” according to Petitcolin.

KNDS France CEO Chamussy signed letters of intent with Ukraine’s ENMEK to set up a maintenance center for Caesar cannons and for 3D printing of spare parts, as well as a contract with KZVV to transfer production of 155mm shells.

The maintenance center won’t require any French technicians, as Ukraine is already handling Caesar maintenance with replacement parts shipped from France, according to Chamussy. “The Ukrainians know how to do this very well,” he said.

KNDS France is currently producing one Caesar truck-mounted howitzer a week, according to Petitcolin. The company is on track with plans to lift the manufacturing pace to six per month from four, said Chamussy.

“If there’s sustained demand, we know how to step up the pace from one a week. We know how to do better, we know how to do more, but of course it all depends on the demands we get,” Petitcolin said. He said the company has concrete Caesar orders for 2024, but not yet for 2025, though “there will no doubt be some contracts” at the Eurosatory defense show that starts June 17.

KNDS France has the capacity to increase total artillery production to 12 cannons a month, according to Chamussy. In addition to the Caesar self-propelled gun, the firm also makes the 105mm LG1 towed artillery piece.

KNDS plans to start ammunition manufacture with its local Ukrainian partner within 12 months, according to Petitcolin. In a next step, the company could start manufacturing system modules or even entire systems in Ukraine, the chairman said.

French Armed Forces Minister Lecornu commented on plans to transfer Mirage 2000-5 jets to Ukraine, saying the aircraft in question are in service with the French Air Force right now, including for NATO air-policing missions in Estonia and Romania. The aircraft are gradually being withdrawn from service through 2030 to be replaced by the Rafale.

“So we’re talking about fighter jets that are fully operational,” Lecornu said. He declined to say how many aircraft France will transfer, or which countries might join in a Mirage coalition.

Lecornu said the urgency is to start training Ukrainian pilots on the Mirage 2000. He said France has been training pilots on the French-German Alpha Jet for several months, but the Mirage “is a different category.” French President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday that training normally takes five to six months, meaning Ukrainian pilots could be able to fly the Mirage 2000-5s by the end of the year.

Lecornu also discussed French plans to train a brigade of 4,500 Ukrainian soldiers, saying rebuilding capacity is “the big priority” for the Ukrainian army. The country faces a challenge of training 15 to 20 brigades, which he described as an “absolutely considerable effort.”

(Source: Defense News Early Bird/C4ISR & Networks)

10 Jun 24. The top Ukrainian official overseeing wartime reconstruction and defence fortifications has resigned, claiming his agency was being systematically undermined by the government. Mustafa Nayyem’s departure is the latest in a series of personnel changes in Kyiv that have shaken the confidence of western partners in President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government and irked some of Ukraine’s own officials. Nayyem, head of the State Agency for Restoration and Infrastructure Development, told the Financial Times that Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal had barred him from participating in the annual Ukraine Recovery Conference on June 11 and 12 in Berlin, where donors will meet to support projects for rebuilding cities and infrastructure destroyed by Russia’s full-scale invasion. The void left by Nayyem and the absence of an infrastructure minister are likely to prompt questions about Kyiv’s ability and commitment to protect its critical infrastructure as Russian forces continue to conduct air strikes on Ukraine’s power plants and mount offensives in the country’s east. Two agency officials responsible for anti-corruption policy and procurement resigned with Nayyem on Monday. Six Ukrainian and western officials told the FT that a series of firings, resignations and government reshuffles directed by Zelenskyy in recent months had caused tension between Kyiv and the western partners financing Ukraine’s defence and reconstruction. All of them told the FT that they had warned Zelenskyy and his government over what they saw as disruptive and inexplicable moves. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, foreground, pictured at a recent meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron. Zelenskyy’s reshuffles had caused tension between Kyiv and western partners, officials said © AP “The US and other western partners want a normal, predictable relationship with their Ukrainian counterparts,” one concerned Ukrainian government official told the FT on condition of anonymity. “Right now they are losing trust in Ukraine’s government because of personnel decisions that they do not understand.” The FT obtained a letter from the prime minister to Nayyem that read: “I agree to your business trip to Berlin . . . The report on the results of the business trip must be submitted within 10 days of its completion.”

However, in blue ink, the handwritten words “I do not agree” were added at the top of the page, and the underlined, handwritten words “I do not” were added beside the start of the printed “I agree.” It was signed by Shmyhal and dated June 7, and its authenticity was confirmed by a government official. Ukrainian officials said political rivalries were at the heart of the government shake-up, but the government said Nayyem’s travel request to Berlin was denied because a meeting to review his agency’s work was scheduled for June 12 in Kyiv. Nayyem’s statements “appear to be an attempt to avoid reporting on today’s critical issues”, a cabinet spokesperson said. Zelenskyy is expected to attend the conference while in Berlin to deliver a speech to the German parliament. But experts said the absence of the top bureaucrat in charge of Ukraine’s reconstruction was unlikely to sit well with foreign partners at an event focused on rebuilding the country. “It sends our partners a message that recovery is not a priority any more,” said Hlib Vyshlinsky, the executive director at the Kyiv-based Centre for Economic Strategy. In his resignation letter, seen by the FT on Monday, Nayyem said he was stepping down “due to systemic obstacles that do not allow me to effectively exercise my powers”. Beginning last November, he said his agency faced “constant opposition, resistance and the creation of artificial obstacles” which he argued had “a negative impact on the country’s defence capability, cargo logistics, protection of critical infrastructure and export of our goods”. Two weeks before his resignation in late May, Nayyem gathered two dozen representatives from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and other western agencies to tell them he expected to be fired and to have probes launched into the work of the infrastructure ministry under his ally Oleksandr Kubrakov, the former infrastructure minister, according to audio recording obtained by the FT and two people in attendance. Nayyem is heard in the recording assuring the agency representatives that the numerous projects in which they were involved, worth hundreds of ms of dollars, would stay on track, and he encouraged them to work with whoever replaced him. But several western representatives aired their concerns about his looming departure. “It’s probably our most important partnership as we prepare for the reconstruction of the country and as we work towards this common goal of getting Ukraine back to business, getting exports flowing,” said a woman representing USAID. Nayyem’s departure follows the dismissal of Kubrakov in May. The two men were in charge of Ukraine’s wartime reconstruction as well as the construction of the country’s “third lines” of defence fortifications to keep the Russians from penetrating deep inside the country. But two Ukrainian officials said that Kubrakov was viewed by Zelenskyy and his office as being too cozy with Washington. Zelenskyy’s office has not commented on Kubrakov’s dismissal, which was approved by parliament. “This situation is really bad for perception of the Ukrainian government and Ukraine generally. Ukraine is and has to be perceived as unbroken,” Vyshlinsky said. The sacking of Kubrakov and Nayyem’s departure “build an image of weak and unpredictable governance that is unjust to efforts of Ukrainians during these years”. Kubrakov’s removal sparked a backlash from Ukraine’s biggest western backers in private and in public, according to the six Ukrainian and western officials. Diplomats from G7 nations as well as current members of the Ukrainian government described frustration over what they said was internal discord and dysfunction plaguing Zelenskyy’s administration and government at a critical moment in the war. Once a rising star in Zelenskyy’s government and seen as a reformer, Kubrakov was among the Ukrainian officials who signed the UN grain export deal initially agreed with Russia, he had a direct line to the president, and was even asked by Zelenskyy last August to take over as defence minister, according to three officials close to the men. But last autumn, those officials said, Zelenskyy’s office ordered Kubrakov’s ministry and Nayyem’s agency to be split into multiple offices and their budgets halved without explanation. Two Ukrainian officials and two diplomats representing western embassies in Kyiv said that there had been several “tense” discussions between their teams over that, as well as Kubrakov’s dismissal more recently. In what those diplomats described to the FT as a co-ordinated display of support for Kubrakov and the western frustrations over Zelenskyy’s government, ambassadors from the US, Germany, France and the EU in Kyiv published messages of support for the sacked minister on the X social media platform on May 9 that featured photographs of themselves with him. “Thank you @OlKubrakov for a great partnership over the last 2 years that enabled Ukraine’s fight for freedom by keeping Ukraine’s exports alive, protecting the energy grid & supporting the economy,” wrote US ambassador Bridget Brink. Days later, western ambassadors expressed their indignation at personnel changes in a more explicit way when they met Shmyhal, the prime minister, on May 13, according to three officials with direct knowledge of the meeting. (Source: FT.com)

09 Jun 24. Russia Deploys Newly 2S43 Malva Howitzer for the First Time to Destroy Ukrainian Bridges. Russian forces have used for the first time in combat operation, the new S43 Malva, an 8×8 wheeled self-propelled howitzer, to destroy Ukrainian bridges in the Kharkiv direction. Precision strikes from the latest Russian self-propelled artillery are cutting off supply routes for Ukrainian troops.

The development of the 2S43 Malva began as part of Russia’s effort to modernize its artillery capabilities. The initial concept and technical requirements for the Malva were established in 2021. The howitzer was developed by TsNII “Burevestnik,” part of the Uralvagonzavod Corporation, and manufactured by Uraltransmash. The primary innovation of the Malva is its 8×8 wheeled chassis, which offers improved mobility, reduced operational costs, and lower weight compared to traditional tracked self-propelled guns.

The first firing tests of the 2S43 Malva took place in 2021, shortly after its development phase. These tests were crucial for evaluating the system’s performance under various conditions and making necessary adjustments. The state trials for the Malva were successfully completed on May 17, 2023.

After the successful trials, the first batch of 2S43 Malva howitzers was delivered to the Russian Armed Forces on October 26, 2023 . The system’s operational readiness was further demonstrated when it was deployed in Ukraine. On June 2, 2024, an aerial image confirmed the Malva’s presence in the firing position in the Kharkiv region, showcasing its effectiveness in active combat scenarios.

The Malva is equipped with a 152mm 2A64 rifled gun, capable of firing up to 24.5 kilometers with a 30-round ammunition storage capacity. Its gun elevation range is -3° to +70°, with an azimuth of ±30°, providing significant versatility in targeting (Home) (Home). The wheeled design allows for rapid deployment and operational flexibility across diverse terrains, making it a valuable addition to Russia’s artillery arsenal.

The 2S43 Malva is a new Russian-made 152mm wheeled self-propelled howitzer designed for rapid deployment and precision strikes

Since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Russian Armed Forces have deployed and tested several advanced combat vehicles and military equipment, reflecting their ongoing efforts to modernize their military capabilities. These developments encompass various categories, including main battle tanks, armored fighting vehicles, air defense systems, and electronic warfare units. (Source: Google/https://armyrecognition.com/)

08 Jun 24. Le Monde learned about a secret contract between Ukraine and France.

According to Le Monde, Kyiv has already ordered a second Control Master 200 radar system from the French company Thales to strengthen Ukrainian air defense.

Points of attention

The Control Master 200 detects and tracks different types of targets in all environments, helping to coordinate air defense efforts.
Ground Master 200 is a medium-range radar that allows you to detect and fight enemy aircraft at long distances.
The radar works effectively both in the case of aircraft at high altitude and drones at low speed and low altitude.

Ukraine is actively looking for ways to strengthen air defense

As the journalists managed to find out, the order has already been issued by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

It is important to understand that Kyiv received the first such radar last year.

Control Master 200 has already demonstrated its effectiveness. The cost of the new purchase is not yet known.

The ControlMaster 200 simultaneously detects and tracks low- and high-altitude targets in all types of environments, ensuring the coordination of air defense assets, from very short-range air defense to extended short-range air defense (E-Shorad), Thales representatives explain.

In addition, it is emphasized that the French system consists of:

Ground Master 200 air surveillance radar,
radio communication system, ControlView control center,
of a portable weapons distribution terminal.

What else is known about the Ground Master 200

The Ground Master 200 is a medium-range truck-mounted radar.

Thanks to it, soldiers have the ability to spot enemy aircraft at a distance of 250 kilometers and fight them at a distance of 100 kilometers.

At the same time, it does not matter whether the targets fly at low speed and low altitude, like drones, or at high altitude, like airplanes, says Thales. (Source: Google/https://news.online.ua/en/le-monde-learned-about-a-secret-contract-between-ukraine-and-france-879938/)

08 Jun 24. Ukraine claims strike on Russia’s advanced Felon fighter jet.

The drone attack occurred on June 8 at an airbase near Akhtubinsk in Russia’s Astrakhan region, located approximately 589 kilometers from the frontline.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, satellite images show the Su-57 intact on June 7, but by June 8, the area around the aircraft displayed explosion craters and burn marks, indicating a fire resulting from a direct hit. This event marks the first recorded instance of the Su-57 being damaged in such a manner.

The Su-57, Russia’s most advanced fighter jet, known to NATO as Felon, can deploy X-59 and X-69 missiles. Only a few of these sophisticated aircraft are currently operational within the Russian Aerospace Forces.

Russia has increasingly utilized its Su-57 combat aircraft to conduct missile strikes against Ukraine. These advanced jets began playing a more active role in late February 2024, with a notable rise in the frequency of their missions.

In the past month alone, Russian forces have launched over six cruise missiles from Su-57 jets. These operations are conducted from an airbase near Akhtubinsk, with the jets flying over Kursk, Bryansk, and the occupied Luhansk region to carry out their strikes. Typically, the Su-57s are accompanied by two Su-35 fighters for added protection.

The reported damage to the Su-57 is a noteworthy development in the ongoing conflict. If confirmed, it demonstrates Ukraine’s growing capability to target and damage advanced Russian military assets, potentially altering the dynamic of aerial engagements.

(Source: Google/https://defence-blog.com/)

08 Jun 24. Ukraine air defence downs 9 out of 13 Russian drones over four regions. Ukrainian air defence and mobile drone hunters groups shot down nine out of 13 Russian drones over four regions of the country, the air force said on Saturday.

The Iranian-made Shahed drones were downed over the central Poltava region, southeastern Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, and the Kharkiv region in the northeast, the statement said. One X-59 Russian missile launched from Russia’s Kursk region was also downed.

Serhiy Lysak, Dnipropetrovsk regional governor, said the overnight drone attack damaged commercial and residential buildings and also a power line. Details of the damage in other regions were not immediately clear. (Source: Reuters)

07 Jun 24. Austin: U.S., Allies, Partners United in Ukraine’s Defense From Expansionist Russia. Europe now faces new dangers from an aggressive and expansionist Russia, said Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III today during a meeting with French Minister of the Armed Forces Sebastien Lecornu in Paris.

France, the United States and other nations of goodwill have come together to defend Ukraine’s right to self-defense, Austin said.

“I’m deeply grateful for France’s contributions to Ukraine’s fight for freedom, and I know that we’ll continue to work together to provide security assistance to our Ukrainian partners,” the secretary said. “We’ve also worked together to strengthen NATO.”

Austin also remarked on yesterday’s D-Day ceremony, where he met some of the veterans who landed in Normandy 80 years ago.

“It was very moving to have the chance to again thank the U.S., French, and other Allied veterans of World War II and to reaffirm the principles that they fought for. Their service and sacrifice laid the foundation for the rules-based international order that we built together after World War II,” Austin said.

Separately, Austin and President Joe Biden met today with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the International Hotel in Paris.

The three leaders discussed U.S. support for Ukraine in its efforts to defend against Russian aggression. The leaders discussed the state of the war and Ukraine’s urgent assistance needs.

The president announced a new package of security assistance for Ukraine, which is valued at $225 m and includes air defense interceptors, artillery ammunition and other critical capabilities.

This is the sixth security assistance package announced by the United States since Biden signed the national security supplemental, demonstrating the rapid pace of U.S. assistance for Ukraine.

The leaders also discussed the upcoming Peace Summit on Ukraine in Switzerland, where Vice President Kamala Harris and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will represent the United States in support of Ukraine’s pursuit of a just and lasting peace in line with the United Nations Charter, including the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The president emphasized that U.S. support for Ukraine is unwavering. The leaders committed to meet again at the upcoming G7 Summit in Italy to continue their discussions.

Later today, Biden, Austin, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, Jr., traveled to Pointe du Hoc Ranger Monument in Normandy, France.

“When we talk about democracy — American democracy — we often talk big ideas like life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. What we don’t talk about enough is how hard it is,” Biden said.

“American democracy asks the hardest of things: to believe that we’re a part of something bigger than ourselves. So, democracy begins with each of us,” the president said.

“As we gather here today, it’s not just to honor those who showed such remarkable bravery that day, June 6, 1944. It’s to listen to the echo of their voices, to hear them. Because they are summoning us. They’re asking us what will we do. They’re not asking us to scale these cliffs. They’re asking us to stay true to what America stands for,” Biden said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

07 Jun 24. Dutch invest in production of combat vehicles for Ukraine. The Dutch government will invest 400m euros ($432m) in the production of combat vehicles for Ukraine, it said on Friday.

The government said it would participate along with Denmark in a Swedish fund aimed at ramping up production of CV90 vehicles, many of which would be manufactured in the Netherlands.

The CV90, or Combat Vehicle 90, is an armoured tracked vehicle with anti-tank capabilities that can carry up to eight soldiers in its passenger compartment. It is made by BAE Systems (BAES.L). The government also said it would invest 54m euros in the production of drones for its own armed forces and 25m euros in a fund to help starting companies in the defence industry grow. ($1 = 0.9253 euro) (Source: Reuters)

07 Jun 24. THALES to supply Ukraine With Second Air Defender Radar.

Under the aegis of the French Ministry of the Armed Forces, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence signed a contract for the delivery of a second complete Thales Air Defence system to help protect Ukraine.
This additional short-range air defence system consists of a ControlMaster 200 (CM200), including a Ground Master 200 air surveillance radar, a radio communications system, Air Defence command-and-control centre ControlView together with portable weapon allocation terminals.
As Europe’s leading Air Defence systems’ integrator, Thales air defence technologies protect against all types of threats at all levels of the airspace and cover the entire decision-making chain, from detection and identification to neutralisation.

Following the supply of a first air defence system to Ukraine in 2023, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has decided to acquire a second system, due to its proven efficiency on the battlefield.

A complete detection and defence system for Ukraine

Ensuring the protection of the population and armed forces requires the earliest possible detection of threats, wherever and whenever they arise – at sea, in the air or on land.

The CM200 detects and tracks simultaneously low to high-altitude targets in all types of environments. It provides air defence weapon coordination for Very Short Range Air Defence (VSHORAD) up to Extended Short Range Air Defence (E-SHORAD).

The Ground Master 200 radar establishes tracks faster and keeps them locked for longer, thus maximising situational awareness. This gives time to the ControlView command and control system to evaluate the threat, while allocating the appropriate firing units for air target engagement through each weapon terminal.

Thales is the benchmark European systems integrator capable of integrating air defence systems and managing their compatibility with other existing systems, a real asset for users to deploy rapidly and efficiently.

“This second air defence system will strengthen the protection of the Ukrainian territory, enabling early detection of existing threats. Thales is proud to put its expertise at the service of Ukraine’s protection”, Hervé Dammann, Executive Vice-President, Land and Air Systems.

05 Jun 24. Sweden’s ASC 890 donation shifts the balance in Ukraine air defence. Newly introduced airborne control planes promise enhanced surveillance and combat coordination.

In an escalation of Ukraine defence support, Sweden has pledged two ASC 890 airborne control and surveillance aircraft as part of its 16th and largest military aid package, valued at Skr13.3bn ($1.3bn).

This addition marks advancing Ukraine’s defence capabilities, particularly its ability to detect and manage aerial threats.

James Marques, an aerospace, defence, and security analyst at GlobalData, highlights the importance of this donation. “This is not any type of aircraft Ukraine has used before. They are fitted with huge radars and communications systems, so they’re used to detect aircraft, missiles, other projectiles and sometimes things on the ground and at sea too from very long distances, up to 300-400km away.,” Marques explains.

The ASC 890 is built for airborne early warning and control (AWAC) missions, functioning as airborne command centres. Unlike fighter jets with limited radar range and communication capabilities, these larger aircraft offer surveillance and battlefield management. Marques points out, “ASC Radar then, of course, has far more powerful radar than the F-16’s Ukraine is being given, in one-on-one comparisons with many Russian fighters like SU-35SM, they are still beaten in radar range, meaning they have the important first-shot advantage for their missiles.”

This enhanced surveillance capability is crucial as Ukraine faces intensified Russian airstrikes on both military and civilian targets.

Marques also highlights a crucial aspect: compatibility with Ukraine’s upcoming F-16 fighters. “ASC can send location info to the F-16, which is relayed directly on a screen in the pilot’s cockpit, giving them loads of advantages in choosing when and where to fight,” he notes.

However, Marques raises concerns about the vulnerability of these aircraft. Given their strategic importance, they will become high-priority targets for Russian forces, who have historically developed long-range missiles designed to neutralise such assets. “I do wonder how Ukraine plans to keep these 890s safe,” he muses, emphasising the need for robust protective measures.

According to GlobalData’s “Sweden Defense Market 2023-2028” report, in 2023, the defence budget reached $8.7bn, equating to a yearly increase of 17.3%, clearly demonstrating Sweden’s fiscal response to the invasion of Ukraine.

In addition to the ASC 890 aircraft, Sweden’s military aid includes artillery ammunition, armoured vehicles, and other essential resources to bolster Ukraine’s defence and combat capabilities. This support addresses immediate needs while contributing to the long-term strengthening of Ukraine’s military infrastructure.

Sweden’s decision to donate its entire stock of ASC 890 aircraft and acquire newer GlobalEye planes for its own air force shows a commitment to supporting Ukraine during this juncture. As the conflict continues, these capabilities are expected to play a role in Ukraine’s defence strategy, enhancing its ability to detect, respond to, and counter Russian aggression effectively. (Source: airforce-technology.com)

07 Jun 24. Russian Black Sea Fleet Vessels Relocate from Novorossiysk Amid Persistent Ukrainian Attacks. Recent satellite imagery suggests that vessels from Russia’s Black Sea Fleet have vacated the Novorossiysk base, relocating further east in response to persistent Ukrainian attacks. The imagery, dated June 5, indicates a significant movement of ships from the base in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region. This potential “exodus” was reported by an open-source intelligence account on social media.

Newsweek has not independently verified the imagery and has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.

On Thursday, Ukraine’s navy reported that four Russian ships, including a Kalibr-cruise missile carrier, were present in the Black Sea. The departure of the Russian vessels from Novorossiysk was also noted by OSINT analyst MT Anderson, who compared satellite images from June 2 and June 5, revealing the movement of a large group of Russian Navy ships. Among them were two Project 266M “Aquamarine-M” minesweepers and one Project 12700 “Alexandrite” minesweeper, headed in an unknown direction.

The exact reasons and destination of the fleet’s relocation remain unclear. One theory is that the surviving Russian landing ships are being used for logistical tasks, replacing recently damaged vessels at the ferry crossing in Crimea. The departing ships included heavily armed patrol and missile ships, as well as minesweepers.

Russia has historically used Sevastopol in Crimea as its primary Black Sea base, but consistent Ukrainian missile and drone strikes, coupled with significant Russian naval losses, have compelled Moscow to reposition many of its assets further east, including to Novorossiysk. Western intelligence has noted that Russia has limited its operations in the northwestern Black Sea due to the increased threat from Ukraine. The British Defense Ministry previously described Novorossiysk as a “crucial” port for safeguarding the Black Sea Fleet’s most valuable assets.

Vasyl Maliuk, head of Ukraine’s SBU security service, stated in late May that Ukrainian forces had effectively confined the Russian fleet to Novorossiysk bay. Additionally, there are reports suggesting the Kremlin is considering a new military base at the port of Ochamchire in Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia, which would place Russian assets even further from Ukraine’s reach.

Despite the relocation to Novorossiysk, Ukraine has continued its efforts to threaten the fleet. In mid-May, drone attacks targeted military facilities in Novorossiysk and an oil refinery along the Black Sea coastline. In response to these threats, Russia has bolstered its defenses, using barges to guard the port entrance and painting decoy silhouettes of submarines to confuse Ukrainian drones. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

30 May 24. Aerostar And Lockheed Martin open first European HIMARS Sustainment Centre In Romania.

The new facility underlines Lockheed Martin’s strategic partnership for Romania’s national defence, industry and economy and will boost operational readiness for HIMARS systems operated by Romania and its NATO partners.

Aerostar S.A. in partnership with Lockheed Martin has inaugurated Europe’s first certified HIMARS Sustainment Centre. This new facility strengthens the existing relationship between global defence and aerospace company Lockheed Martin and Aerostar S.A., which have partnered on similar sustainment activities for Romania’s Black Hawk and F-16 fighter fleets.

Located in Bacău, the sustainment centre will contribute to the creation and sustainment of high-value jobs in Romania and deliver increased readiness with lower operational costs for the Romania’s Land Forces.

“At Lockheed Martin, we’re proud of our longstanding strategic partnership with Romania, which is delivering meaningful partnerships that foster innovation and resilience to enhance Romania’s defence industrial base,” Ray Piselli, said Lockheed Martin’s Vice President of international business at the ceremony in Bacău.

The new facility builds on the success of similar work already carried out by Aerostar and supports continued sustainment for critical defence assets. Romania will see support operations for the Land Forces HIMARS fleet carried out for Romania by engineers and technicians from Aerostar.

“Today’s event further expands our strategic relationship with Lockheed Martin, a world leader in aerospace and defence. This relationship is sustaining Aerostar with new technical capabilities and knowledge and firmly positioning us within Lockheed Martin’s global supply chain which could open the door to new and exciting opportunities in the future,” said, Alexandru Filip, General Director of Aerostar.”

In the past 12 months we witnessed milestones such as the inauguration of the first European F-16 Training Center, the extension of our AI research partnership with Technical University of Cluj-Napoca and the inauguration of the first European maintenance Center for Black Hawk and we significantly increased Aerostar’s capability to ensure advanced maintenance for F-16 jet fighters.

Romania’s HIMARS provide credible deterrent capability in support of defence and national security. HIMARS is a combat-proven system that offers deterrence against aggression and significantly increases the capability of NATO and Armed Forces across the globe. A lightweight mobile launcher, HIMARS is transportable via C-130 and larger aircraft for rapid deployment, and fires ATACMS missiles, the next-generation Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) and GMLRS rockets to include the extended-range variant– ER GMLRS. Romania was the first European user of HIMARS in 2021.

Lockheed Martin has been a partner to Romania for more than 25 years and is today a strategic partner for national defence, industry and academia. It partners with Romania on a variety of defence and security programmes including military aircraft, missile defence, precision fire, radar and pilot training.

The company’s involvement extends to include links with academic institutions, such as Romania’s Technical University of Cluj-Napoca, which is studying artificial intelligence applications to support national security, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

(Source: Google/https://www.camdenarknews.com/)

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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.

A CNIM Group Company

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