NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

May 31.

Ukraine: New phishing campaign highlights sustained security threats from Russian-aligned actors. On 30 May, the cyber security company Cloudflare stated that it successfully stopped an espionage campaign conducted by the Russian-aligned group ‘FlyingYeti’. The campaign exploited the January termination of the moratorium on evictions and suspension of utility services for unpaid debt enacted by the Ukrainian government at the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war. FlyingYeti was specifically targeting Ukrainian citizens with phishing emails containing a malicious link to a spoofed version of the website that normally provides these services. The link downloads an invoice containing a malicious payload, ‘COOKBOX’, which allows FlyingYeti to track its victims, to control their systems and to install additional payloads. Notably, the campaign signals a shift in the group’s victimology to include civilians, as it typically targets the Ukrainian military. As Russian-aligned actors consistently bolster their military activities with cyber operations, we assess that this latest campaign highlights the sustained security and espionage threats facing Ukrainian entities.
Ukraine-US: Limited authorisation for strikes inside Russia is unlikely to signal total policy shift. Reports emerged on 30 May that US President Joe Biden has granted Ukraine permission to use US-supplied weapons to strike military targets inside Russia that are being used in the offensive against Kharkiv oblast (Ukraine). However, unspecified US officials disclosed that Washington DC will continue to prohibit Ukrainian forces from using Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and other long-range US-supplied capabilities to strike Russia. The development comes after weeks of debate among US officials on how Ukraine should be allowed to use US-provided arms. While Biden’s decision represents a limited policy change on the matter of using US weapons against Russia, Washington DC likely remains wary of an escalation. The authorisation is limited to a certain area (near the border with Kharkiv). Pressure will highly likely continue for the US to relax its policy on Ukrainian strikes inside Russia in the coming weeks, though a total carte blanche approval is unlikely in the short term.

May 30.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

OFFENSIVES: Kyiv has confirmed that US military aid has started to arrive at the frontline, but noted that it will take weeks before materiel transfers reach ‘critical volumes’
STRIKES: A Ukrainian drone strike against a Russian Voronezh-M long-range early warning radar system marked a major escalation in targeting Russia’s nuclear infrastructure, and could possibly undermine nuclear stability
SABOTAGE: Western intelligence officials have reported that Russia’s military intelligence (GRU) is carrying out covert low-level sabotage operations in Europe to undermine support for Ukraine
FORECAST: Russian sources who work with (or who have worked with) Russian President Vladimir Putin claim that he is ready to begin ceasefire negotiations; we assess that this is highly unlikely to be a genuine offer
OFFENSIVES: On 29 May, senior Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak stated that US military aid has started to arrive on the frontline, but noted that it will take weeks before materiel transfers reach ‘critical volumes’. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala also confirmed on 28 May that the first shipments of 155mm artillery ammunition sourced by a Czech-led initiative will arrive in Ukraine in the coming days. Podolyak reaffirmed that Russian forces currently have an ‘absolute advantage’ in both artillery ammunition and missiles. While the gradual increase in Western aid will likely begin to offset this advantage moderately and to improve Ukrainian defensive capabilities, Russia’s summer offensive will almost certainly continue to apply significant pressure on Ukrainian forces at multiple points along the frontline in a bid to achieve further tactical breakthroughs.
BAKHMUT: On 27 May, Russian forces conducted a small-scale mechanised assault east of Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut), but have made little confirmed advances in the area. The limited nature of the assault forms a wider pattern of such attacks at other points along the frontline, including to the west of Adviidka (Donetsk oblast) and along the southern axis. Such attacks are likely aimed at testing Ukrainian defences before committing more sizeable forces to larger mechanised assaults in the coming days and weeks. Russian forces have marginally advanced south of Ivanivske, located due south-east of Chasiv Yar; further progress into the eastern micro district of Chasiv Yar itself remains very slow.
DONETSK: In recent days, Russian forces have launched small mechanised assaults along the Donetsk front, focusing primarily to the west and north-west of Avdiivka. Akin to their attacks against Chasiv Yar, these operations are likely aimed at probing Ukrainian defences and exploiting Ukraine’s continued personnel and equipment shortages while they last, which have likely been exacerbated by the opening of the Kharkiv front. On 29 May, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that operations were particularly intense in the Pokrovsk direction (located to the west of Avdiivka). Geolocated footage from 29 May indicates that Russian forces advanced to a windbreak south-east of Novopokrovsk (located to the north-west of Avdiivka). Additional footage from 25 May also shows Russian advances within central Kranohorivka following a platoon-sized mechanised assault.
KHARKIV: Ukrainian Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on 30 May that Russian forces are building up along the Kharkiv oblast border, but that these forces are not enough to break through Ukrainian defences. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on 24 May that Ukrainian forces had stabilised the Kharkiv front, blunted the Russian offensive and are now in the process of conducting counter-attacks. A Ukrainian commander also reported on 24 May that Kyiv’s forces were successfully repelling Russian forces, which have partially switched to the defensive. Russian operations in northern Kharkiv oblast, particularly those due north of Kharkiv city near Lytpsi, did reduce in tempo over the last week.
KHARKIV: It remains uncertain whether Russians forces have deliberately slowed their offensive in preparation for ‘phase two’ of the Kharkiv operation, whereupon they will launch renewed high intensity operations. Russia has not yet deployed sizeable reserves from the Northern Grouping of Forces to the front, but in recent days the tempo of attacks has once again increased. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed on 25 May that Russian casualty rates during the Kharkiv offensive stand at eight-to-one in favour of Ukraine. While we cannot confirm this, it is clear that Russian forces have taken extremely high casualty rates during the operation, which has possibly contributed to the slowing down of offensive operations this week. Nevertheless, Russia does retain additional forces which it could commit to the offensive at any time.
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Over the past week, Russian offensive operations yielded limited gains in the Kreminna and Svatove sectors. Geolocated footage from 29 May shows recent Russian advances east of Torske (located to the west of Kreminna). Additional footage from 26 May shows Russian troops progressing east of Myasozharivka and into south-eastern Ivanivka (located to the west and north-west of Svatove, respectively). In the meantime, a Russian milblogger noted on 27 May that Russian forces suffer a 1-to-20 first-person view (FPV) drone disadvantage along this frontline. While we cannot confirm this statistic, it likely indicates that Russian forces are not evenly equipped, and that Ukrainian forces are able to establish localised superiority in their use of low-capability drones. Overall, the frontline remains stable along the Oskil-Kreminna sector, with Russian forces likely focusing operations on other parts of the frontline, such as Donetsk and Kharkiv.
SOUTHERN: Russian forces launched a small-scale mechanised assault along the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia oblast border on 28 May, where they made confirmed advances. While this section of the frontline has remained broadly stable over the last six months following the culmination of Ukraine’s 2023 counter-offensive, Russian forces have increased pressure along the Vremevsky salient over the last two weeks. Russian forces now likely control around a third, if not more, of Staromaiorske, located around 11 miles (18km) south of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast); they likely intend to push north along the Mokri Yar River towards Velyka Novosilka.
STRIKES: On 26 May, Russia launched two Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 12 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and 31 Shahed-131/136 drones. Ukrainian forces intercepted all the Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles and drones over Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, Vinnytsia and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. The Ukrainian authorities also reported that a Kh-59 cruise missile struck a terminal at Zaporizhzhia International Airport (OZH). On 28 May, Ukraine intercepted three Shahed-136/131 drones over Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia. Early on 29 May, Ukrainian forces intercepted 13 Shahed-136/131 drones over Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv and Rivne.
STRIKES: Overnight on 29-30 May, Russian forces launched a large-scale strike targeting military and critical infrastructure facilities in Ukraine. The attack included eight S-300/S-400 missiles, 11 Kh-101/Kh-55 missiles and 32 Shahed-131/136 drones. Ukraine’s air defences intercepted seven Kh-101/Kh-55 missiles and all 32 drones over Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Odesa, Vinnytsia and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Several anonymous Ukrainian Telegram channels claimed that the attack intended to strike a major military air base located in Starokostyantyniv in western Khmelnytskyi. Although this remains unconfirmed, Russia has frequently targeted Starokostyantyniv because it houses Western-provided long-range projectiles, such as Storm Shadow missiles. Russian attacks against the airbase are likely to increase in the coming months as and when F-16 fighter jets begin to arrive in Ukraine.
STRIKES: On 28 May, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Russia’s efforts to ramp up its Shahed-131/136 drone production capabilities at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in the Republic of Tatarstan. Information obtained by the Prana Network hacker group indicates that Russia aims to produce 6,000 Shahed drones this year. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reported that as of April, the plant has already supplied 4,500 Shahed drones and could produce 6,000 drones by mid-August, demonstrating the plant’s expanding production capacities. The Alabuga plant also reportedly produces reconnaissance drones, such as the M3 ‘Albatross’, which has allegedly been employed to capture photos of Ukrainian troop positions and movements.
STRIKES: Drones have proven to be a key element of Moscow’s striking strategy, with Shahed drones typically used to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences and identify optimal striking paths for missiles. Russia’s ability to mass-produce such projectiles will remain a significant long-term challenge for Ukraine’s air defences.
STRIKES: The WSJ reported that instructors from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran-backed Lebanese Hizballah (LH) are training Russian soldiers to operate Shahed drones. At the same time, on 27 May, the German Media outlet Bild reported that Iran has also started supplying Moscow with the latest Qaem-5 guided bombs, which a downed Mohajer-6 drone used by Russia was found to be carrying. Qaem-5 guided bombs are television-guided and can be equipped with various types of warheads. The provision of such equipment and training underscores growing defence co-operation between both countries, which is enhancing Russia’s strike capabilities.
STRIKES: Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) claimed responsibility for a drone strike on 27 May which targeted a Voronezh-M long-range early warning radar system. The system is located in Orsk (Orenburg oblast, Russia), located 1,118 miles (1,800km) from the Ukrainian border, making this Kyiv’s longest-range strike to date. While the extent of the damage to the site remains unclear, the system’s primary function is to detect ballistic missiles as part of Russia’s wider early warning and nuclear defence network.
STRIKES: It remains our assessment that if Ukrainian forces continue to target Russia’s nuclear early warning and defence infrastructure, this could seriously undermine Russia’s perception of its own ability to deter nuclear escalation vis-a-vis the UK and the US – risking nuclear ‘strategic stability’. This could in turn possibly lead to greater nuclear threats issued by Russia; Moscow would almost certainly infer a growing need to deter further Ukrainian attacks in order to preserve its nuclear deterrence capabilities.
STRIKES: However, attacks against Russian nuclear infrastructure are also likely to undermine the US’ readiness to authorise Kyiv to employ US-made long-range projectiles to strike Russian territory. Given the system’s significant strategic value, the attack has raised concerns among US officials that such incidents could disrupt global ‘strategic stability’ by increasing the risk of escalation. Despite this assessment, European countries such as France and the UK remain willing to authorise Ukraine to use Western long-range projectiles to strike Ukraine. Notably, on 28 May, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that Kyiv must be authorised to attack military bases on Russian territory from where Moscow launches its missiles. Ultimately, we assess that Washington DC’s decision will be essential in determining whether Kyiv can proceed with such attacks.
STRIKES: Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that its air defences intercepted 13 Ukrainian drones over both Krasnodar Krai (Russia) and annexed Crimea early on 30 May. The MoD also stated that Crimea was targeted by US-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), as well as two Ukrainian naval drones.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

BELARUS: On 27 May, Ukraine’s Centre for Countering Dis-information (CPD) assessed that Russia could launch a new psychological operation designed to incite panic over the threat of a new front opening along the border with Belarus. The CPD forecast that both Russia’s and Belarus’ leadership will make ‘provocative statements’ threatening Ukraine in the near future without providing specifics. Although Russia used Belarusian territory as a springboard to invade Ukraine in February 2022, it remains highly unlikely that Russian forces would open a new front in this direction in the short-to-medium term.
BELARUS: Nevertheless, any such psychological operation would possibly aid Russia, especially if Ukraine redeploys resources to screen the Belarusian border, thus spreading its forces even thinner across multiple different fronts. Ultimately, information operations of this kind will possibly support Russian efforts to achieve this objective without having to commit many (or any) resources to the Belarusian-Ukrainian border; we are also tracking similar concerns about Russian operations in Sumy oblast (Ukraine), which could possibly aim to support similar objectives.
AID: On 28 May, the Dutch MoD announced an initiative to deliver an additional Patriot air defence system to Ukraine and called on other European countries to contribute. The MoD announced that it had identified countries which could offer additional parts for the system, as well as munitions, adding that the Netherlands will provide core components and parts from its stocks. According to the MoD, a co-ordinated effort to provide key parts and munitions would enable the provision of at least one fully operational system for Ukraine in the near term, moderately improving Ukrainian air defence capabilities if it is deployed.
AID: Reports emerged on 28 May that Hungary is blocking around EUR 6.5bn (over USD 7bn) in military aid to Ukraine. According to Lithuania’s top diplomat, Gabrielius Landsbergis, Hungary has blocked around 41% of EU resolutions over Ukraine; he called for the bloc to find a way to overcome Budapest’s blocking tactics. It remains highly likely that Budapest will continue to undermine the provision of EU military assistance to Ukraine and the bloc’s wider cohesion on its Ukraine policy in the coming months. However, this will likely delay, rather than halt, such support.
AID: On 29 May, Sweden announced its largest military aid package to Ukraine thus far; it is worth around USD 1.3 billion (EUR 1.16 billion). Notably, the package includes two Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft (ASC-890), which will aid Ukraine in identifying targets at a longer range. These aircraft can identify cruise missiles, drones and targets on land and at sea. Their effective surveillance area spans over 190,000 square miles (500,000 sq km). The aircraft will also be able to communicate with F-16 fighter jets through the Link 16 communications system used by many Western air and ground systems. When used in conjunction with F-16s, the ASC-890 aircraft will significantly bolster Ukraine’s air capabilities (though the aircraft themselves will remain vulnerable to Russian strikes).
FRANCE: Ukrainian Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi announced on 27 May that France is planning to send instructors to Ukraine to train its military. Syrskyi stated that he had signed paperwork allowing French military instructors to visit Ukrainian training centres soon, but provided limited details about their activities. Syrskyi announced that he hopes other countries will follow France’s lead.
FRANCE: French President Emmanuel Macron has pushed an increasingly hawkish stance on Russia in recent months; this position is almost certainly aimed at positioning himself as a leader in European policy vis-à-vis Kyiv. Nevertheless, more assertive countries will possibly also send instructors or contractors to Ukraine in the coming months. However, concerns over Russian forces targeting such personnel will likely deter states that are more cautious of Russian escalation and retaliation, such as Germany and/or the US.
SABOTAGE: Western intelligence officials have reported that Russia’s military intelligence (GRU) is carrying out covert low-level sabotage operations in Europe to undermine support for Ukraine. The New York Times cited unnamed intelligence officials in an article published on 26 May. The sabotage operations in question have mostly been arson or attempted arson attacks targeting a range of sites, including a warehouse in the UK, a paint factory in Poland, homes in Latvia and an Ikea store in Lithuania. According to unspecified European and US security officials, Russian operatives are carrying out such attacks to slow weapons transfers to Ukraine and to create the appearance of growing European opposition to supporting Kyiv.
SABOTAGE: However, the attacks have not yet interrupted the flow of arms, while many of the targets are not directly related to Ukraine’s war effort. As such, these low-level operations are likely also partly aimed at stretching European law enforcement and emergency services and building a sense of disorder across the continent. Officials also assess that Moscow is attempting to sow fear and to force European countries to increase security across the weapons supply chain, which adds costs and slows down transfers. According to the officials, Russia wants to draw attention to mysterious fires across Europe without being directly blamed for starting them.
SABOTAGE: The report aligns with our assessment that Russia highly likely operates networks across different countries that are capable of carrying out sabotage operations. Such operatives will therefore likely continue to conduct plausibly deniable attacks, such as arson, to incite confusion and possibly even panic in the coming months across the region. The GRU is understood to have established a particularly long-term presence in the Czech Republic and Greece, though it is likely operating across the continent and will have ample sources for recruitment, particularly among organised crime groups (OCGs). For more analysis on Russian destabilisation operations (specifically in the Baltic region), see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 16 May 2024.

FORECAST

CEASEFIRE: On 24 May, Reuters reported that four Russian sources who work with (or who have worked with) Russian President Vladimir Putin claim that he is ready to begin ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine; we assess that this is highly unlikely to reflect a genuine interest in reaching a compromise deal at this stage. The four unnamed sources reported that Putin is willing to negotiate a ceasefire that ‘recognises the current battlefield lines’, noting that he is willing to continue fighting if Kyiv and its Western partners refuse to enter into negotiations.

We continue to assess that Russia’s war goals in Ukraine have not changed; as such, the Kremlin’s readiness to consider negotiations seriously has highly likely also not changed. The recent reshuffle of the Russian MoD almost certainly reflects the Kremlin’s efforts to prepare Russia for a protracted war in Ukraine. As such, Moscow is highly unlikely to believe that it is currently losing this war and that it must cut its losses with a compromising ceasefire agreement – particularly ahead of the US presidential election which will possibly see Western support for Ukraine reduce dramatically in 2025. The timing for genuine overtures towards a peace agreement is therefore highly likely premature. It is much more likely that such reports of Putin’s alleged willingness to enter into talks form part of a wider Russian information and reflexive control campaign. This effort is likely designed to increase international pressure on Kyiv ahead of the US election and convince Ukraine-sceptical Republicans that a quick end to the war is possible if Kyiv agrees to Russian terms.

Additionally, the fact that Russian forces have opened up an entirely new front in northern Kharkiv, notably in territory Moscow has not formally annexed, indicates that Moscow would not be satisfied with a ceasefire at the current frontline – and would therefore be highly unlikely to facilitate a stable end to the war. The Kremlin almost certainly wants to occupy wider stretches of the so-called Novorossiya region of eastern and southern Ukraine, alongside its official war goals: ‘denazification’ (regime change), enforcing neutral status and the demilitarisation of Ukraine. It remains our assessment that any ceasefire agreement that fails to achieve these Russian objectives would only serve to provide Russian forces time to reconstitute over the medium term in order to invade once again when conditions are more favourable.

It remains a realistic possibility that Moscow will use the upcoming anniversary of the annexation of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts on 30 September to annex Kharkiv formally. This would possibly form part of a wider effort to increase pressure on Kyiv ahead of the US election and illustrate that the longer the war goes on without a peace settlement favourable to Moscow, the greater Russian demands will become. As with many other Russian actions, such an effort would likely be aimed at convincing Western decision makers to pressure Kyiv into making major concessions, as part of ongoing Russian reflexive control operations.

The prospects of Putin genuinely looking to enter into negotiations are further undermined by an active Russian information operation that is seeking to question the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. On 26 May, the Chairperson of Russia’s State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin stated that Ukraine ‘ceased to exist as a rule of law state’ in 2014 (referring to the ouster of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych during the Euromaidan Revolution). Crucially, he also remarked that ‘any agreements with an illegitimate president are invalid and may be challenged in the future’. On 28 May, Putin furthermore claimed that the Ukrainian Constitution does not allow for an extension of Zelensky’s powers under martial law, claiming that ‘the only legitimate authority’ in Ukraine is the Verkhovna Rada (the parliament) and the Speaker, Ruslan Stefanchuk. This is an incorrect interpretation of the Ukrainian Constitution, which clearly indicates that the extension of a president’s powers is legal under martial law conditions.

These statements align with our previous assessment and indicate that Moscow will possibly refuse to negotiate with Zelensky as and when pressure to enter talks builds in the coming years. Crucially, these statements also indicate that Moscow will possibly not respect any agreement reached with Zelensky’s administration, even if it does decide to negotiate with his government; this renders a stable long-term peace settlement all the more uncertain, especially if both Putin and Zelensky remain in power.

*US: Increased munitions output points to US support for Ukraine, despite policy stagnation. According to reports on 29 May, a Pentagon-funded munitions factory in Mesquite (Texas) will soon begin producing around 30,000 artillery shells a month for Ukraine. This is set to double the US’ current output of these shells, which are used by the 155-millimeter howitzers that are critical for Kyiv’s military efforts. The factory is the first new major arms plant supported by the Department of Defense since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war. In the near term, the factory will aid the Pentagon’s production target of 100,000 shells a month by the end of 2025; production currently sits at around 36,000. Nonetheless, Russia’s artillery output is still projected to be higher than the US and Europe combined by late-2025. The project underscores the Biden administration’s support for Ukraine, despite substantial partisanship and policy stagnation in Congress over further military aid. We assess that this will likely sustain US national security concerns and policy risks regarding Russia in the long term.

May 29.

*Russia: Tax rise on high-income households, businesses will boost war funding. On 28 May, Russian Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov proposed introducing additional progressive income tax rates for Russians earning more than RUB 2.4m (USD 27,100) annually. Following a previous tax reform in 2021, the income tax rate currently stands at 13% for most Russians, with high earners paying 15%. The new proposal would apply a 15% rate to annual incomes between RUB 2.4m (USD 27,100) and RUB 5m (USD 56,100), with progressively higher rates for higher income brackets, reaching up to 22% for yearly incomes exceeding RUB 50m (USD 558,500). Siluanov also proposed raising Russia’s corporate tax rate from 20% to 25%. If approved by parliament, the proposals will come into force in 2025. Siluanov estimates that higher taxes on high-income households and the corporate tax hike will bring RUB 2.6trn (USD 29bn) and RUB 1.6trn (USD 17.9 bn) in yearly income to the federal budget, respectively. By boosting federal revenue, these tax hikes will likely improve the Kremlin’s ability to finance a protracted war in Ukraine while enhancing Russia’s socio-economic health outlook overall. (Source: Sibylline)

30 May 24. Joe Biden has approved Kyiv’s use of American-made weapons to strike within Russia as long as the targets relate to Moscow’s offensive in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, a US official said on Thursday. The decision marks an important shift from Washington’s previous position that Ukraine should not use US weapons to strike targets in Russia — and follows growing pressure on Biden from Kyiv and its allies. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office did not immediately confirm or comment on the US decision. He and Ukrainian government officials had for weeks urged Washington to lift the restrictions, arguing that it was “unfair” that they were prohibited from striking military targets while Moscow’s forces pounded civilian targets in Ukraine. “The most important and immediate effect is that Ukraine will be able to strike targets at greater depths with Himars GMLRS munitions, including Russian artillery, electronic warfare, air defences and command posts,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program. “Before now, Ukraine has been forced to move artillery too close to the front to engage targets at greater depth, which put them at greater risk.” But the US president’s move on Thursday falls short of a sweeping greenlight for Ukraine to use US weapons to strike everywhere inside Russia. “The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use US-supplied weapons for counter-fire purposes in the Kharkiv region so Ukraine can hit back against Russian forces that are attacking them or preparing to attack them,” a US official said on Thursday. “Our policy with respect to prohibiting the use of Atacms or long-range strikes inside of Russia has not changed,” the official added, referring to a US ballistic missile system. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Biden has opposed the use of US weapons to strike inside Russian territory for fear of escalating the conflict and drawing the US and Nato directly into war with Moscow. But in recent weeks the president has been weighing a partial change to that policy in light of the Russian offensive in Kharkiv, in Ukraine’s north-east. Moscow opened a new front in the region earlier this month, sending more than 30,000 ground forces into Ukraine from Russia’s Belgorod region, according to Oleksandr Lytvynenko, Ukrainian national security and defence council secretary. Recommended InterviewWar in Ukraine Nato training soldiers in Ukraine does not escalate war, says Estonian PM Russia seized roughly a dozen Ukrainian villages and laid waste to the town of Vovchansk as it moved to create a so-called buffer zone that Lytvynenko said is meant to keep Kyiv’s forces from launching attacks across the border. Russia has used warplanes and ground launchers to fire powerful glide bombs, missiles and heavy artillery at Kharkiv city and surrounding areas, killing dozens of civilians as it pounds targets just across the border. (Source: FT.com)

30 May 24. The US is close to signing a new bilateral security pact with Ukraine in a signal of support aiming to assuage Kyiv after “tense” relations that some Ukrainian officials say have hit their lowest ebb since Russia’s full-scale invasion. The agreement would be the most significant in a series of deals Ukraine has struck with Nato countries that lays out commitments on long-term support, including military training, intelligence sharing and economic assistance. Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s frustration with Joe Biden was laid bare this week, when the Ukrainian president rebuked his US counterpart in unusually blunt terms, saying Biden’s plan to attend a Democratic fundraiser rather than Ukraine’s peace summit on June 15-16 was “not a strong decision”. One Zelenskyy-appointed senior government official who spoke to the Financial Times about the US-Ukraine relationship said: “We are farther apart than ever since the war started. It is very, very tense.” However days before the peace summit, Zelenskyy and Biden are expected to sign a bilateral security agreement on the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Italy next month, US officials told the FT. The pact has been negotiated during weeks of increasingly strained relations between Kyiv and Washington. Zelenskyy’s office this week issued a memo to officials and MPs, seen by the FT, that instructs them to criticise both Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping for not attending the summit. “If they don’t [attend], then what is their real interest?” the memo wrote. Several Ukrainian officials said that Kyiv’s bitterness over lack of top-level US support for its peace summit initiative was just one of many points of friction with Washington and other western partners that have erupted at a particularly difficult time for Ukraine’s leadership. More than a dozen current and former Ukrainian officials and G7 country diplomats in Kyiv who spoke to the FT point to a clutch of contentious issues. These include Congress’s six-month delay in approving US military assistance; the expected lack of substantive progress towards Nato membership for Ukraine at the alliance’s Washington summit in July; the Biden administration’s prohibition on Kyiv’s use of American-supplied weapons inside Russia; and Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. Ukrainian attacks on two radar systems that form part of Moscow’s nuclear warning system over the past week have been a particular point of conflict with Washington, which is worried that it may provoke Moscow and further escalate the war. Other points of concern include Zelenskyy’s little explained shake-ups of top government and military figures with whom the US worked closely, and diverging strategies on how Ukraine can achieve victory, as well as what that victory might look like. Several Ukrainian government officials and diplomats from G7 nations cited the firing of commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny in February and infrastructure minister Oleksandr Kubrakov this month. Both men were well respected and enjoyed close working relationships with US and EU officials. The officials told the FT that G7 ambassadors have warned Zelenskyy’s government about what they see as disruptive and inexplicable moves. The fraying relations and discord come as Ukrainian forces struggle to hold their defensive lines against a bigger and better-armed Russian army in the east, and while Zelenskyy is under huge pressure to mobilise more men and take other unpopular decisions to bolster the war effort. Zelenskyy’s press secretary declined to comment on questions about relations with Biden’s White House. The Biden administration has been among Ukraine’s most steadfast supporters, committing more than $175bn in emergency assistance to the country since the start of Russia’s all-out invasion in February 2022. Biden has repeatedly stated that the US would stick by Ukraine’s side for “as long as it takes”. A US official said while there were points of disagreement in any bilateral relationship, there had been positive developments that had cheered officials in Kyiv. These include the US approval for Kyiv’s use of long-range 300km Atacms missiles and Congress passing $60bn of aid last month. The US official also said Ukraine’s request to use US weapons to strike inside Russia was relatively recent, coming three weeks ago when Russian forces opened a new front in the north-eastern Kharkiv region. The official said the request is being evaluated by the Biden administration, suggesting a shift was possible soon. But a second senior Ukrainian official said Zelenskyy has grown more “emotional and nervous” over the situation on the battlefield and what they say the president sees as Washington’s eagerness to start negotiations with Russia, despite the White House stating in public that it is entirely a decision for Kyiv to initiate such talks. Zelenskyy “thinks they want the war to go away before the [US] election”, the official said. He added that the Ukrainian president was also unhappy with the Biden administration’s insistence that Kyiv not hit Russian oil infrastructure over fears of raising global gas prices in an election year. A third senior Ukrainian official used the word “paranoia” to describe the feeling inside the presidential office in recent months, as Zelenskyy and his team have worked to prepare for next month’s peace summit. “Zelenskyy has deep anxiety about the military situation but especially about the peace summit in June,” the official said. (Source: FT.com)

30 May 24. U.S.-Supplied Abrams Tank Are Struggling Against Drones & Artillery in Ukraine. The U.S. has provided Ukraine with Abrams tanks, specifically the M1A1 model, as part of its military support against Russian forces. Announced in January 2023, each tank costs approximately $10m. Despite their advanced capabilities, Ukrainian crews have identified several flaws, especially in the armor, which they say is insufficient against modern weapons.

During a visit by CNN journalists to eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian soldiers revealed the tanks’ vulnerabilities. Ukrainian tank operators reported that the armor does not adequately protect against modern threats, particularly drone warfare. One crew member, callsign Joker, stated, “Its armor is not sufficient for this moment. It doesn’t protect the crew.”

The tanks have faced significant challenges due to the pervasive use of drones by Russian forces. These drones have made it difficult for the tanks to operate without being detected and targeted. As a result, the Abrams tanks have been partially withdrawn from frontline positions to prevent further losses.

Despite these setbacks, the Ukrainian military has taken measures to improve the tanks’ defenses. Recent modifications include the addition of Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA) and steel cages around the turrets to counter drone and missile attacks.

Pentagon officials acknowledged in April that the Abrams tanks were pulled back from the frontlines due to the threat posed by Russian attack drones. However, some tanks remain in action, and Ukrainian crews continue to report difficulties. One Abrams was almost immobile due to an engine problem, and crews have complained about condensation issues affecting the electronics in rainy or foggy conditions.

Where the U.S. Abrams M1A1 is underperforming, the older model Bradley M2A2’s have been lauded for their survivability and rugged performance.

The M2 Bradley, initially designed in the 1970s to counter Soviet-era BMP IFVs, has proven its worth in Ukraine, effectively engaging Russian forces. Ukrainian forces appreciate the Bradley for its survivability, speed, and firepower. For instance, a Ukrainian Bradley driver recounted surviving three anti-tank mines

The Bradley’s combat debut in Ukraine was challenging, with many vehicles lost during the initial summer offensive in 2023. However, the 47th Brigade has since adapted its tactics, enhancing the Bradley’s reputation for reliability and effectiveness against Russian armor. The vehicle’s 25mm chain gun and TOW II anti-tank missiles have been particularly effective in close-quarters combat. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

30 May 24. The US will urge Ukraine’s allies and western businesses to choke off supplies for Russia’s defence industry through China, a vital route to sustain President Vladimir Putin’s war machine. In a speech to German business leaders in Berlin on Friday, US deputy Treasury secretary Wally Adeyemo will urge western companies to stop Russia importing critical components from or via China. The US has threatened secondary sanctions against Chinese companies found to have supplied Russia’s defence industry. According to excerpts shared with the Financial Times, Adeyemo will say the US and Europe “must make the choice stark for China: Chinese firms can either do business in our economies or they can equip Russia’s war machine with dual-use goods. They cannot do both.” “The Kremlin knows it can only meet its military goals with China’s assistance,” Adeyemo will say. “Every country in our coalition and every member of Nato must also consistently and clearly communicate to Beijing that it is unacceptable for the Chinese to abet the Russian military-industrial base.” Moscow increased its imports of sensitive, dual-use goods — civilian goods that also have military applications crucial to the Russian war effort — from China-based suppliers by 40 per cent last year, according to the US. While China accounts for almost two-thirds of Russia’s imports of dual-use high-technology goods, as defined by the EU’s trade regulations, almost all of the imported components used in Russian weaponry are of western origin, according to a study by the Kyiv School of Economics. The European Central Bank earlier this month told Eurozone lenders with Russian operations to speed up their exits, fearful they could be hit with US secondary sanctions for enabling Moscow’s war effort if they stay. The ECB’s warnings came shortly after Adeyemo told Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank, the most prominent European bank in Russia, that Washington could restrict its access to the US financial system on national security grounds. Recommended Western business, the Kremlin and the war Western businesses backtrack on their Russia exit plans In a roundtable with news outlets during a visit to Kyiv on Wednesday, Adeyemo said the US was seeking to ensure that US microchip manufacturers were “taking steps to look at how their chips are being used” and preventing transshipment through third countries such as China. Putin’s recent appointment of statist technocrat Andrei Belousov as defence minister indicates the extent to which the war is consuming Russia’s economy, Adeyemo said. The US has increasingly put banks in its crosshairs as it broadens its focus on countries and companies shipping dual-use goods to Russia, he added. “Financial institutions, in lots of ways, can help us enforce our sanctions by doing additional due diligence on the companies that are trying to use them to finance goods that are going into Russia,” Adeyemo said. “What we’ve seen the Kremlin do is, instead of using the biggest banks in some of these countries they’re now going to smaller institutions that have less sophisticated compliance departments to try and get around our sanctions and export controls,” he added. The US now wants to “force” banks to “enhance their due diligence, to try and stop Russia from being able to get access to these goods”, he added. (Source: FT.com)

30 May 24. France is seeking to assemble a coalition of European countries willing to send military trainers to Ukraine as western allies look for ways to speed up Kyiv’s recruitment efforts in the face of Russia’s renewed offensive. More than 100,000 Ukrainian servicemen have completed training abroad — mostly in Poland, Germany and the UK — since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, according to Ukraine’s General Staff. But Ukrainian officials say it would be more efficient to send western army personnel to train them locally — especially as Russia has intensified its aerial attacks and made some territorial gains in northern and eastern Ukraine. Some western allies have already provided limited training in Ukraine. President Emmanuel Macron is expected to unveil France’s plan to send army trainers next Thursday when he hosts Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Normandy along with other leaders, including US President Joe Biden, on the 80th anniversary of the D-Day, according to people familiar with the matter. Macron’s proposal would entail French soldiers training Ukrainian personnel for tasks including demining operations or repairing and maintaining military equipment. It could end up involving dozens or hundreds of troops. The French president had opened the door to such a move in late February when he said sending western troops to Ukraine “could not be ruled out”, sparking a backlash from Germany and other Nato countries that rejected the idea as a risky escalation. “[Paris] has been working for a while now with the Ukrainians on this,” said one person familiar with the preparations. “The strong view is that it makes sense, technically . . . But it won’t be a Nato initiative,” they added. France has held talks with several countries, including Estonia and Lithuania that have already publicly signalled their willingness to take part in training missions. But specific plans had not been finalised, the people said, and might still change. The commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, revealed the military training partnership with France on Monday, saying: “I have already signed documents that will allow the first French instructors to visit our training centres soon and get acquainted with their infrastructure and staff.” The Ukrainian defence ministry rolled it back later, clarifying that Kyiv was “still in discussions with France” about the instructors. Ukrainian officials say that it would be more efficient to provide some kinds of training in Ukraine rather than move men and heavy equipment to bases in Poland and Germany and then back to the front. They also see a western training mission as representing a new willingness by their allies to reconsider their self-imposed limits on involvement in the war. Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told the Financial Times earlier this month that there were already “countries who are training soldiers on the ground” in Ukraine. She argued that if training personnel were attacked by Russian forces it would not automatically trigger Nato’s Article 5 mutual defence clause: “It is not how it works. It’s not automatic. So these fears are not well-founded.” President Zelenskyy’s office declined to comment on Thursday. The French defence ministry said it was still working with its Ukrainian counterparts “in particular to understand their exact needs”. Asked for details on Tuesday at a press conference in Germany alongside chancellor Olaf Scholz, Macron did not deny the plans, but said he would “not comment on what were uncoordinated and unfortunate communications”. “I will have the opportunity when president Zelenskyy comes to France next week to receive him and to express myself very precisely on what we are going to do,” he said. (Source: FT.com)

29 May 24. Think tank close to Kremlin says Russia should consider a ‘demonstrative’ nuclear explosion.

Summary
Think tank floats idea of a nuclear explosion
Says idea would be to remind West of nuclear war threat
Some other security experts, lawmakers back the idea
Proposal comes as Moscow warns West on Ukraine arms

A senior member of a Russian think tank whose ideas sometimes become government policy has suggested Moscow consider a “demonstrative” nuclear explosion to cow the West into refusing to allow Ukraine to use its arms against targets inside Russia.

The proposal, by Dmitry Suslov, a member of the Moscow-based Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, was issued a day after President Vladimir Putin warned the West that NATO members in Europe were playing with fire by proposing to let Kyiv use Western weapons to strike deep inside Russia, something he said could trigger a global conflict.

Ukraine’s leadership says it needs to be able to strike Russian forces and military targets inside Russia with long-range Western missiles to be able to defend itself and prevent air, missile and drone attacks, a view which has found some support among some Western countries but not yet with Washington.

Russia, which possesses the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, has warned it would view such a step as a grave escalation that would pull NATO and the countries concerned into a direct conflict with Moscow, increasing the risk of nuclear war.

Suslov, a member of the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, a think tank praised by Putin who has said the authorities sometimes pick up its policy ideas, said Russia needed to act to dissuade the West from crossing a red line.

“To confirm the seriousness of Russia’s intentions and to convince our opponents of Moscow’s readiness to escalate, it is worth considering a demonstrative (i.e. non-combat) nuclear explosion,” Suslov wrote in business magazine Profil.

“The political and psychological effect of a nuclear mushroom cloud, which will be shown live on all TV channels around the world, will hopefully remind Western politicians of the one thing that has prevented wars between the great powers since 1945 and that they have now largely lost – fear of nuclear war.”

Suslov is the latest Russian security expert and lawmaker to argue that Moscow should test a nuclear bomb to intimidate amid the Ukraine war, fuelling fears among Western security experts that Russia may be inching towards such a test.

Such a move, if it did happen, could usher in a new era of big power nuclear testing.

There was no immediate comment on Suslov’s proposal from the Kremlin, which has said Russia’s nuclear policy remains unchanged while signalling its displeasure with what it cast as increasingly aggressive Western rhetoric on arming Kyiv earlier this month by ordering tactical nuclear weapons drills.

NUCLEAR TEST?

Suslov suggested Russia also initiate strategic nuclear exercises, warn any country whose weapons are used by Kyiv to attack Russia that Moscow reserves the right to strike that country’s targets anywhere in the world, and warn it could use nuclear weapons if that country then retaliates conventionally.

Putin in November signed a law withdrawing Russia’s ratification of the global treaty banning nuclear weapons tests, a move he said was designed to bring Russia into line with the United States, which signed but never ratified the treaty.

Russian diplomats said at the time that Russia, which has not carried out a post-Soviet nuclear test, would not resume nuclear testing unless Washington does.

The Soviet Union last tested in 1990 and the United States in 1992. Only North Korea has conducted a test involving a nuclear explosion this century.

Russia warned Britain this month that it could strike British military installations and equipment both inside Ukraine and elsewhere if British weapons were used by Ukraine – with London’s blessing – to strike Russian territory.

It issued the warning after British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said Kyiv had the right to use UK-supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia. (Source: Reuters)

29 May 24. Ukraine to Get Sweden’s AWACS in First Airborne Radar Donation. The two Saab 340B AEW&C aircraft are part of a $1.3bn military aid package announced by Stockholm. In one of the most interesting military aviation donations to Ukraine since the war began in February 2022, Sweden has announced sending its Saab 340B AEW&C (Airborne Early Warning and Control) aircraft to Kyiv, as per an announcement made by its defense ministry on May 29, 2024. The aircraft (designated S100D/ASC890 by the Swedish military) are part of a larger military aid package worth 13.3bn Krona ($1.3bn) that also consists of land systems like armored carriers, artillery ammunition and “resources for maintenance of previously donated material,” Defense Minister Pål Jonson said. The package also comes after Stockholm formally joined NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) in March 2024, followed by Finland in April. Interestingly, Sweden declared the ASC890 and the military aid the same day as it “paused” its “plans” to send Saab Gripen fighters to Ukraine, “in order to allow for the induction of F-16 fighter jets,” Reuters reported. Stockholm had been considering Kyiv’s request for the jets since last year. “We have been urged by the other countries in the coalition to wait with the Gripen system,” Defence Minister Pal Jonson told TT. “This has to do with the fact that the focus is now on introducing the F-16 system,” Jonson said. (Source: Google/https://theaviationist.com/)

30 May 24. Ukraine destroys seven Russia-launched missiles, 32 drones overnight, air force says. Ukraine’s air defence systems destroyed seven Russia-launched missiles and 32 drones overnight, its air force commander said on Thursday. On the Telegram messaging app the air force official said Russia had launched a total of 51 missiles and drones. The commander said Russian forces attacked “military facilities and critical infrastructure in Ukraine” but did not provide additional details. Mayor of eastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv, Ihor Terekhov, said in a separate statement that critical infrastructure in the city was shelled last night and four people were injured. Other civilian and military authorities did not report casualties and destruction caused by the attacks. (Source: Reuters)

29 May 24. Over 465,000 Russian personnel have been killed or wounded since 2022 – a phenomenal loss for Russians: UK statement to the OSCE.

Politico-Military Counsellor, Ankur Narayan, adds that despite the staggering costs to Russia, Putin is no closer to subjugating Ukraine. Russia can minimise its losses by withdrawing all of its forces from all of Ukraine. Thank you Mr Chair. Two weeks ago, President Putin appointed a new Defence Minister – Andrei Belousov. Upon taking up the job, Minister Belousov placed special emphasis on prosecuting the war with “minimal human losses”.

Given Minister Belousov’s background as an economist, let me speak about numbers:

First, 825. Today is 825 days since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Second, 465,000. Over 465,000 Russian personnel have been killed or wounded in that time.

Third, 980. From January 2024 to April 2024, Russia’s daily casualty rate in Ukraine – the numbers of killed and wounded – was 980. Estimates in May, put that number over 1000 per day. That is around 30,000 per month. The highest rate it has been since the start of this war.

Fourth, 40%. Defence now takes up 40% of Russia’s government spending – which amounts to 6% of its GDP.

Fifth, 70,000. Ukraine has liberated 70,000 square miles of land that Russia seized in 2022. And Ukraine has destroyed or damaged a quarter of the Black Sea Fleet’s vessels, denying Russia control of the western Black Sea and pushing back much of the Russian navy from Crimea. As a result, Ukraine has successfully resumed maritime exports from its Black Sea ports. Monthly export volumes through its maritime corridor are consistently at the highest levels – four and a half m tonnes – since the war began. It is on course to export all its harvest this year despite repeated Russian attempts to prevent it.

To summarise. President Putin is now over two years into a war he thought would take 3 days. He is no closer to his goal of subjugating Ukraine. Instead, Russia has suffered nearly half a m casualties, and lost a great proportion of its land and sea forces. Economists do not need to be reminded about sunk cost fallacy. Seen objectively, the numbers point to a phenomenal loss for a country like Russia – in Russian lives, materiel and credibility.

There is a simple way to minimise human losses. Russia chose to start this war. Russia can choose to end it. Ukraine has the right to defend itself. We will continue to stand resolutely with Ukraine. Russia should respect the UN Charter, end its war, and withdraw all of its forces from all of Ukraine.

Thank you. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

28 May 24. Ukraine no nearer to joining Nato this year, Zelensky to be told at summit. Frustrated president has been asked not to appeal to member states, after rifts dominated alliance meeting last year

Germany and the United States have been vocal in their warnings against offering Kyiv a firm timeframe, during preparations for the two-day gathering in Washington marking the organisation’s 75th anniversary.

“They’re very sceptical about bringing Ukraine any further along the path to full Nato membership this year,” a source familiar with the Biden administration’s thinking told The Telegraph.

The source added: “The US is perhaps not as concerned as Germany, but there is a worry about the threat of Russia to the rest of the alliance.”

The decision is expected to frustrate Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, who has been warned by counterparts not to demand the “impossible” from the alliance.

Russia is currently making gains across the front line with a further offensive expected in the summer months.

Last year, Mr Zelensky branded Nato “absurd” when its leaders refused to extend an invitation to Kyiv for full-fledged membership at the meeting in Vilnius, Lithuania.

Nato’s top officials carried out “expectation management” in the wake of the summit, according to alliance sources, after it was decided members supportive of Ukraine’s accession, including Britain, had created too much pressure around the decision.

There are concerns that the issue of Ukraine’s membership was allowed to dominate last year’s summit and create rifts between member states.

A similar incident in Washington would play into Donald Trump’s questions over the alliance’s relevance ahead of the US presidential election, insiders argue.

Mr Zelensky has been asked to avoid pressuring individual allies to once again come out in support for a clear timetable for Ukrainian accession.

While Nato leaders will refuse to provide a timeline for Ukraine’s membership, they will offer what is being described as a “bridge” or “path” to accession as a show of support for the process.

A package of support, currently under discussion, will highlight Ukraine’s “ability to choose its own future” and demonstrate that the “path to membership is getting shorter” as it defends itself against Russian aggression, two diplomats said.

Nato first agreed that Ukraine could become a member in 2008, but has never finalised a timeline or accession process.

Member states have since agreed that Kyiv will not be allowed to join the alliance while at war with Russia, given that it would trigger the Article 5 mutual defence clause.

In Vilnius, Britain and France pushed for the word “invitation” to be included in the summit’s final statement, to reaffirm that it was a political impediment and not a decision blocking Ukraine’s membership.

“It’s not an invitation, but it’s the next closest thing,” a diplomat said of the latest offer.

The package will focus on bolstering Ukraine’s armed forces to ensure Ukraine is ready to immediately join Nato when alliance leaders agree the time is right.

To do this, Nato will take over the leadership role from the US of the Ramstein process, the group of more than 50 allies that coordinate military aid for Ukraine.

Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary-general, has also sought to push the alliance’s 32 members to commit to creating a $100 bn (£78 bn) fund to bring Ukraine’s military up to “Nato standard” through weapons deliveries and training. With some member states expressing scepticism about the sum total, there are now talks about replacing the fund with a promise by each ally to commit a percentage of defence spending to Kyiv. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

28 May 24. Sweden halts plan for Gripen jets to Ukraine, news agency TT reports. Sweden is pausing plans to send Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine in order to allow for the introduction of F-16 fighter jets, the Swedish defence minister told news agency TT in Brussels on Tuesday. Ukraine last year started discussions with Sweden about the possibility of receiving Gripen jets, and the Nordic country later said its would assess the potential for sending the aircraft made by Swedish defence contractor Saab (SAABb.ST).

“We have been urged by the other countries in the coalition to wait with the Gripen system,” Defence Minister Pal Jonson told TT, referring to nations that plan to donate U.S.-made F-16 planes to Ukraine.

“This has to do with the fact that the focus is now on introducing the F-16 system,” Jonson said. (Source: Reuters)

28 May 24. Ukraine buys another 4,200 DJI Mavic drones. The Ukraine war follows the growing trend for small UAS operating as attritable information gatherers across frontlines and are also able to conduct devastating suicide attacks. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has more than doubled the number of DJI Mavic drones it had acquired for use in operations against Russian forces, announcing on 21 May 2024, the purchase of a further 4,200 BPAK DJI Mavic 3E small uncrewed aerial systems (UAS). According to the MoD’s Lethal Defense Acquisition Agency the total value of the contracts amounted to $27.4m (Hrv1.1bn). Together with previous purchases, the number of DJI Mavic’s contracted by the Lethal Defense Acquisition Agency stands at 8,200 sets (7,200 DJI Mavic 3E and 1,000 DJI Mavic 3T), the MoD stated.

“Drones have evolved into an essential component of modern warfare. They strengthen our defence capabilities, increasing military operations’ effectiveness. Therefore, the procurement of drones is one of the main tasks of the Ministry of Defense,” said Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Dmytro Klimenkov.

“Our troops must be provided with everything necessary in a timely manner to have the ability to respond to any threats from the enemy.”

According to the results of auctions on Prozorro, the Ukrainian MoD stated that the average price for one UAS was $3,300 for a DJI Mavic 3E with three additional batteries and a charger, and $4,800 for a DJI Mavic 3T with three additional batteries and a charger.

The Prozorro auction site was set up to enable Ukrainian state-owed assets to be sold into the private sector, focusing on land, property, and vehicles. According to the Prozorro sites the enterprise has been structured as a joint-stock company owned and operated by the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine.

“Through these acquisitions alone we were able to save over 65 m hryvnias (Hrv) from the estimated cost,” said Maryna Bezrukova, director of the Lethal Defense Acquisition Agency.

In addition, the Ukrainian MoD’s Defense Procurement Agency conducted auctions for an additional 4,000 DJI Mavic 3E and 1,500 DJI Mavic 3T BPA as of 20 May, with contracts “expected to be signed”.

Ukraine drone use follows earlier trends in Nagorno-Karabakh

While drones have been used effectively by non-state actors in numerous insurgencies around the world, their widespread use in Ukraine is not the first time such capabilities have been seen – and their impact clearly measurable – in a state-on-state conflict, with the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan seeing small UAS utilised to conduct ISR and aid artillery range finding.

“Azerbaijan was largely using drones for observation and fire correction purposes, rather than, for example, attack drones that fire missiles,” explained Wilson Jones, defence analyst at GlobalData.

“These drones were used to make conventional artillery much more accurate. Most Armenian losses were from artillery bombardment, and they had no effective countermeasures,” Jones added.

Following the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Kyiv has sought to acquire military-capable platforms for use by its military and utilised a range of methods for fund raising and capability acquisition. The use of Prozorro as one such gateway has also highlighted the role of small UAS/drones on the battlefield, proliferating to provide intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), as well as strike roles.

In the ongoing Ukraine war, countless videos are available on social media showing the devastating ability of small UAS operating as first-person attack drones to target and destroy armoured vehicles, with both sides using such capabilities. (Source: army-technology.com)

28 May 24. EDA adds joint procurement but lacks detail on Ukraine in LTR 2024. The 2024 Long Term Review adds tasking for joint procurement and collective research, but doesn’t detail expanded cooperation with Ukraine. EU Defence Ministers agreed on 28 May 2024, to increase the number of the European Defence Agency’s (EDA) core tasks from three to five as part of the EDA Long-Term Review (LTR) 2024.

The adjustments will provide new support in engaging with the European military-industrial base, which has been engaged heavily in the defence of Ukraine, but the LTR stops short of describing a future of closer cooperation with Ukraine.

At the meeting of the Steering Board of the EDA it was agreed that the EU needs to dramatically step up its security and defence ambitions. The EDA added dedicated tasking on aggregating demand towards joint procurement and enabling collaborative defence research, technology, and innovation.

Under the 2024 LTR, the EDA can support MoDs in each step of the development and procurement of capabilities, or support the execution of a whole project, including off-the-shelf acquisitions.

The addition of LTR tasks in 2024 reflect deficits recognised in the collective response to the invasion of Ukraine as it highlighted issues in defence production and supply.

The most recent past LTR, from 2017, included tasks for identifying shared needs and priorities, harmonising requirements and ensuring interoperability, and the political task of voicing Ministries of Defence’s joint positions.

The announcement also held news for the participation of the EDA with Ukraine, stating it will “will strive to expand its cooperation with Ukraine as soon as conditions allow,” but the LTR does not detail what change in conditions in Ukraine expanded cooperation would be contingent on. A framework for greater cooperation was agreed by Ministers of Defence in 2021, but there is no mention of an update to these principals that is reflective of a changed threat landscape.

However, the LTR provides a clearer outlook on the reinforcement of its cooperation with Nato, with an administrative arrangement forthcoming in addition to the conclusion of an agreement for exchange of classified information.

Speaking at the Nato Parliamentary Assembly in Sofia on 27 May, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg spoke of the long-term commitment of Nato to Ukraine, and gave voice to his hopes for a multiyear financial pledge from the allies: “The Ukrainians need more long-term knowledge, more predictability to plan and to invest, to ensure that they have the forces they need to defend against the Russian invaders, but also in the future to deter against future Russian aggression.” (Source: army-technology.com)

28 May 24. Spain, Belgium promise multibillion-dollar military aid for Ukraine. Ukraine has received a number of fresh military aid commitments from its European allies, covering air defense, tanks and combat aircraft.

The Spanish government announced on Monday that it would provide military assistance to Ukraine worth €1 bn ($1.1 bn) this year as well as an additional €5 bn ($5.4 bn) for the period of 2024-2027.

Details were not made public, but Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez told reporters the equipment would alleviate “Ukraine’s key capacity needs.”

According to a report published by Spain’s national newspaper El Pais, Madrid’s pledge includes roughly a dozen Patriot anti-aircraft missiles, 19 Leopard 2A4 tanks, ammunition and counter-drone equipment.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the two countries are discussing possible Spanish contributions to strengthen Kyiv’s air defenses, as Russian forces continue to attack infrastructure and population centers.

In Brussels on Tuesday, Zelensky signed a ten-year bilateral security agreement with Belgium, worth approximately $1 bn,, that will include the delivery of 30 F-16 fighter jets.

The first aircraft are expected to arrive later this year, while the rest will be transferred by 2028.

“The agreement guarantees Belgium’s timely security assistance, modern armored vehicles, equipment to meet our air force and air defense needs, naval security, mine clearance, participation in the artillery ammunition coalition and military training,” the Ukrainian leader said in a statement published on X, formerly known as Twitter.

The deal with Belgium will also cover intelligence and cybersecurity matters as well as further cooperation between the two countries’ defense industries. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Defense News)

29 May 24. Putin warns West not to let Ukraine use its missiles to hit Russia.

Summary
Putin hints at risk of global conflict
Putin warns West over Ukrainian strikes inside Russia
President singles out European NATO members

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the West on Tuesday that NATO members in Europe were playing with fire by proposing to let Ukraine use Western weapons to strike deep inside Russia, which he said could trigger a global conflict.

More than two years into the deadliest land war in Europe since World War Two, Putin has increasingly spoken of the risk of a much broader global conflict as the West grapples with what to do about the advance of Russian troops in Ukraine.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told The Economist that alliance members should let Ukraine strike deep into Russia with Western weapons, a view supported by some NATO members but not by the United States.

“Constant escalation can lead to serious consequences,” Putin told reporters in Tashkent. “If these serious consequences occur in Europe, how will the United States behave, bearing in mind our parity in the field of strategic weapons?”

“It’s hard to say – do they want a global conflict?”

Putin said Ukrainian strikes on Russia with long-range weapons would need Western satellite, intelligence and military help – so the West would be directly involved. He said sending French troops to Ukraine would be a step towards a global conflict.

Speaking of NATO members in Europe, Putin said that small countries there “should be aware of what they are playing with”, as they had small land areas and very dense populations.

“This is a factor that they should keep in mind before talking about striking deep into Russian territory,” Putin said.

RUSSIAN ADVANCES TRIGGER DEBATE IN WEST

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine touched off the worst breakdown in relations with the West for 60 years, and the crisis is escalating into what diplomats say is its most dangerous phase to date.

The invasion has caused the deaths of tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians, driven millions to flee abroad, and reduced neighbourhoods and whole cities to rubble.

Russia, which controls 18% of Ukraine, is advancing and has opened a new front in the Kharkiv region, triggering a debate in the West about what else it can do after giving Kyiv hundreds of bns of dollars in aid, weapons and intelligence.

Western leaders and Ukraine have played down Russia’s warnings about the risk of a broader war involving Russia, the world’s biggest nuclear power, and NATO, the world’s most powerful military alliance led by the United States.

Ukraine says it should be able to hit behind Russian lines, including against Russian sovereign territory, to fight back.

But Russian officials say Moscow’s patience is wearing thin after repeated Ukrainian attacks on Russian cities, oil refineries, and, in recent days, even against elements of its nuclear early warning system.

Asked by Russian state television about the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Putin said the only legitimate authority in Ukraine now was parliament, and that its head should be given power.

Zelenskiy has not faced an election despite the expiry of his term due to martial law which was imposed after the invasion. (Source: Reuters)

28 May 24. Netherlands seek Allies to assemble Patriot missile system for Ukraine. Netherlands cites Secretary General comments allowing NATO Allies to drop below capability targets in call for Patriot missiles for Ukraine. The Netherlands has made an impassioned called to assemble a Patriot system for Ukraine using components already in stock with Nato Allies, stating that Ukraine is “fighting Europe’s fight”. Netherlands will contribute the core components for a Patriot system and has identified which countries can offer additional parts and munitions, according to a 28 May 2024, release from its Ministry of Defence.

“We are engaged in talks with partners to compile a Patriot system, including training for Ukrainian crews,” said Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren. “With our offer, and consulting with partner countries providing several key parts and munitions, we can provide Ukraine with at least one fully operational system in a short time frame.”

In Netherlands’ request to other Nato Allies for the scarce components, Netherlands drew strength from Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s recent comments at a 17 April 2024, press conference: “I have made it clear that if the only way to deliver support to Ukraine is to go below the Nato capability targets, well, that’s the right thing to do. At the end of the day, this has to be a national decision.”

Ollongren remarked that Stoltenberg’s position grants “room for creativity” for Nato countries, adding: “Industrial suppliers have pledged to speed up production and delivery of replacement systems. We are counting on that.”

On 3 January, Nato’s Support and Procurement Agency announced that is had reached a deal to procure up to 1,000 Patriot missiles for a coalition of Allies including Germany, Netherlands, Romania and Spain, as part of a $5.5bn contract with Raytheon and MBDA. In April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked for at least seven more Patriot systems to contribute to the defence of Ukraine from Russian bombardment against Ukraine’s cities and power plants. Patriot missile launchers are a crucial element among Ukraine’s multi-tier air defence system, providing the capacity to intercept and counter tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and advanced aircraft. Patriots are a long-range, all-altitude, all-weather air defence system. The modular architecture is chiefly composed of batteries of multiple launching stations, alongside a single fire control section containing a radar set, an engagement control station, an antenna mast group, and an electric power plant. The cost of a single system can run to $1bn. (Source: army-technology.com)

28 May 24. US rushing ammunition to Ukrainian front to stem Russian advances. The two US Presidential Drawdown Authority packages in May seem to have focused on the provision of ammunition above all else.

The US administration is trying to make up for lost time after month of delays in Ukraine support with another ammunition package for Ukrainian forces, as the Department of Defense (DoD) issues a fifth security assistance package since a multi-billion-dollar funding package was finally passed in April 2024.

Detailing the latest Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package on 24 May – the third PDA since the US was able to restart equipment provision to Ukraine after months of partisan political wrangling – the DoD said that equipment included was valued at around $275m.

The latest PDA is the second to be issued in May, coming on the back of a $400m commitment revealed on 10 May 2024.

Critically, the 24 May PDA almost entirely focused on the provision of artillery shells and precision strike rockets for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), which have been used to devastating effect by Ukrainian forces.

The May 10 announcement also focused mainly on munitions, such as 105mm and 155mm artillery rounds, as well as Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and M113 armoured personnel carriers.

Listing the weapons contained in the new package, the DoD said that it included: ammunition for HIMARS; 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds; 60mm mortar rounds; Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles; Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems; and precision aerial munitions;

In addition, other items included small arms and additional rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades; demolitions munitions; anti-armor mines; tactical vehicles to recover equipment; helmets, body armor, and chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear protective equipment, and other ancillary equipment.

Ukraine on the back foot as Russian open new front

The US has come under significant pressure for its Ukraine support hiatus, a consequence of which saw Russia capture the territory and towns as Ukrainian forces ran critically short of ammunition to conduct defensive operations. In February Russian forces captured the town of Avdiivka after months of combat.

Russian forces are looking to seize the town of Chasiv Yar, some 5km to the west of Bakhmut. The seizure of the town, while still offering only a tactical rather than strategic victory for Russia at this point, could open up new routes north and south along the H20 highway.

Meanwhile, after regrouping forces in Belgorod, Russian forces opened a new front on 10 May in northeast Ukraine in a new offensive, likely intended to test the already stretched Ukrainian front lines. (Source: army-technology.com)

27 May 24. Poland and Baltic NATO States Ready for Direct Military Support in Ukraine if Russia Advances. Baltic NATO states and Poland have signaled their readiness to send troops into Ukraine if Russian forces achieve a significant breakthrough in their renewed assault on northeastern Ukraine. This potential deployment reflects growing concerns among these nations about the broader implications of Russian aggression and a perceived insufficient response from Western allies.

The Baltic region’s sense of urgency is exacerbated by what some describe as Germany’s “half hearted” support for Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has maintained a strict policy against Ukraine using German-made weapons to strike Russian territory, aiming to prevent the conflict from escalating into a larger war. Scholz reaffirmed his position during a May 26 interview with Tagesschau television, emphasizing the need for clear rules governing the supply of German weapons to Ukraine.

The German stance contrasts with recent discussions within the U.S. administration, where the White House is reportedly considering relaxing its restrictions on the use of American weapons by Ukrainian forces.

Baltic politicians have expressed their concerns directly to German officials at the Lennart Meri Conference on foreign and security policy in Tallinn. According to a report by Der Spiegel, these representatives warned that if Western support remains insufficient and Russia achieves a strategic breakthrough in eastern Ukraine, they would not hesitate to deploy troops to assist Ukraine, potentially making NATO a direct participant in the conflict. This sentiment was echoed by Polish and Baltic state MPs, who emphasized the urgency of acting before Russian forces reach their borders.

The heightened alertness of the Baltic states is not new. In March 2024, ambassadors from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania warned of the existential threat posed by Russia, noting the ease with which Russia’s war-hardened military could pivot towards the Baltic region. These concerns were articulated in a joint article in The Telegraph on the 20th anniversary of their NATO membership.

The possibility of deploying Western troops in Ukraine has been discussed at various levels. French President Emmanuel Macron and Czech President Petr Pavel have both suggested that Europe should not limit its support for Ukraine, including considering the presence of foreign troops. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas also noted that some countries have already sent military instructors to Ukraine. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

28 May 24. Belgium has promised to send 30 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by 2028 in the latest defence pledge by a Nato member to Kyiv, demonstrating allies’ resolve in the face of Russia’s intensifying assault on the country. The fighter jet package, announced as part of a bilateral security pact with Ukraine that also includes supply of armoured vehicles, increased production of ammunition and military training, will see at least one F-16 delivered this year, Belgium’s foreign minister said on Tuesday. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo in a post on X, adding that the pledge marked “the first time . . . such an agreement [with a western partner] specifies the exact number of F-16 fighter jets”. Ukraine’s western allies are under intense pressure to step up supplies of weaponry, particularly artillery and air defence systems, to Ukraine, as Russia seeks to make further territorial gains in the country’s east while also subjecting Ukrainian cities to daily bombing raids. Zelenskyy has pleaded for US-made Patriot systems capable of shooting down Russian missiles and planes that launch powerful glide bombs on Ukrainian military positions and cities. Ukraine’s air force has said that the only way to halt their use is to be able to shoot down the bombers with long-range air defence systems and F-16s before the weapons are launched. Kyiv will also need the approval of western allies to use the jets inside Russia. This has become a contentious issue as some Nato members fear that such a move would mark an escalation of the conflict. Russian forces have been on the march since last autumn, having seized the initiative on the battlefield after Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive. The Kremlin’s troops captured the important industrial city of Avdiivka on February 17 and have continued to pound their way deeper into the eastern Donetsk region. Their focus has been the strategic town of Chasiv Yar, which if captured would give them a launch pad to attack deeper into the region.

Early this month, Russia opened a new front in the north-eastern Kharkiv region, where some 30,000 ground forces backed by the air force surged across the border to capture several towns and villages. Oleksandr Lytvynenko, Ukraine’s national security and intelligence chief, told the FT that Moscow’s goal was to create a “buffer zone” to prevent Ukrainian incursions in Russia while forcing Kyiv to divert resources from Donetsk to the area. De Croo said, after signing the pact with Zelenskyy in Brussels, that the Ukrainian president “need[s] the right tools to protect your citizens”. Recommended Hungary Hungary seeks to ‘redefine’ its Nato membership over Ukraine Belgium’s pledge takes the total number of F-16s promised to Ukraine by Nato allies including Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands to about 80. Training of Ukrainian pilots on the US-designed jets, first manufactured almost 50 years ago, has been under way for months. The pact follows a similar agreement made with Spain’s government on Monday that includes deliveries of missiles for Patriot air defence batteries. The bilateral deals with EU capitals come as the bloc itself is unable to make disbursements from a €6.5bn fund created to facilitate weapons supplies to Ukraine because of opposition from Hungary. Budapest’s objections could also prevent Brussels from spending the first €3bn raised from immobilised Russian sovereign assets that has been earmarked to provide more weaponry. (Source: FT.com)

27 May 24. France to send troops to Ukraine to train soldiers. Kyiv’s commander-in-chief says he believes the move ‘will encourage other partners to join this ambitious project’

France will soon start sending troops to train Ukrainian forces in the war-torn country, Kyiv’s top commander said on Monday.

General Oleksandr Syrskyi said paperwork had been signed to allow French military instructors to visit Ukrainian training centres, following talks with Sebastien Lecornu, the French defence minister.

“I welcome France’s initiative to send instructors to Ukraine to train Ukrainian military personnel,” Gen Syrskyi wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

“I have already signed the documents that will allow the first French instructors to visit our training centres soon and familiarise themselves with their infrastructure and staff.

“I believe that France’s determination will encourage other partners to join this ambitious project.”

Ukraine’s commander-in-chief offered no details on the first French deployments.

The French defence ministry said: “As already mentioned several times, training on Ukrainian soil is one of the projects discussed since the conference on support for Ukraine convened by the President of the Republic on February 26.

“Like all the projects discussed at that time, this track continues to be the subject of work with the Ukrainians, in particular to understand their exact needs.”

Opposed by Britain and Germany

Emmanuel Macron, the French president, raised eyebrows in February when he said sending Western troops to Ukraine “could not be ruled out”.

The intervention created divisions within Nato as the alliance’s member states ruled out combat deployments that could risk escalation with Russia.

Britain and Germany were vocal in their opposition to Mr Macron’s suggestion.

Moscow claimed the deployment of Western troops would “inevitably” trigger an all-out war between Russia and Nato.

But the French president’s move prompted some of Ukraine’s most ardent backers in Eastern Europe to also consider sending troops.

Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Lithuanian foreign minister, last week said: “Lithuania is ready to be part of a coalition of countries that could be led by France or another country, which could organise the training of Ukrainians on their territory.”

Britain, America and EU countries have trained more than 100,000 troops on European soil since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

27 May 24. Poland unveils new Iron Curtain to protect Europe. Cezary Tomczyk, deputy defence minister, presents the East Shield at the General Staff headquarters in Warsaw, on Monday CREDIT: Marcin Obara/Avalon

Poland has unveiled plans for a line of anti-tank ditches, bunkers and minefields along its borders with Belarus and Russia. Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, announced a 10bn zloty (£2bn) defensive line to make Nato’s eastern flank “impassable to a potential enemy”, earlier this month, but provided few details.

Visualisations released on Monday show a network of concrete anti-tank “hedgehogs”, palisades and steel barriers integrated with earthworks along 434 miles of frontier.

Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Poland’s defence minister, told reporters: “The ‘East Shield’ deterrence and defence plan is the largest operation to strengthen the eastern border of Poland, the eastern flank of Nato, since 1945.

“It will be a combination of terrain conditions with fortifications and modern technology.” (Source: Daily Telegraph)

27 May 24. Ukraine drone targets Russian early-warning radar at ‘record’ distance, Kyiv source says. A Ukrainian drone targeted a Russian “Voronezh M” early-warning radar near the city of Orsk in the Orenburg region at a “record” distance, a Kyiv intelligence source said on Monday.

The source told Reuters the attack was conducted by Ukraine’s military spy agency on Sunday and did not say whether it caused any damage. The city of Orsk lies around 1,500 km from the nearest parts of Ukrainian-controlled territory.

There was no immediate comment from Moscow on the matter, though Russia’s Izvestia newspaper and other media outlets reported that a drone had come down in the Orenburg region on Sunday and that no civilian infrastructure had been hit.

Russia, a major nuclear power, has a network of radars that it uses to detect enemy missile launches to determine whether it has come under nuclear attack.

Russia’s state TASS news agency cited the commander of Russia’s aerospace forces as saying in 2017 that three new Voronezh-type advanced early warning radars had entered service, including one in Orenburg region.

Last week, U.S. media outlet RFE/RL cited satellite imagery showing damage at a Voronezh-DM radar installation, another part of the early warning system, near Armavir in southern Krasnodar region after unconfirmed reports of a drone attack.

Reuters has not independently verified the imagery.

With Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine now in its third year, Kyiv has increasingly relied on long-range drones to target Russian military and energy targets, in particular oil refineries in recent months.

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Russia has pounded Ukraine with long-range strikes throughout the war and renewed its aerial assault on the energy system, in what it says is retaliation for Kyiv’s strikes on targets in Russia.

A Ukrainian media outlet cited an unnamed source saying the drone had flown 1,800 km (1,118 miles) in Sunday’s attack.

A Ukrainian intelligence source said earlier this month that Kyiv’s longest-range drone attack to date had targeted an oil processing plant in Russia’s Bashkiria region at a range of 1,500 km. (Source: Reuters)

27 May 24. US Strykers Are Helping Ukraine Recapturing Kharkiv Territory. US-supplied Stryker armored fighting vehicles are playing a pivotal role in Ukraine’s ongoing battle to reclaim territory in the northeastern Kharkiv region. According to reports from the Kyiv Post and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrainian forces have successfully recaptured areas near the city of Vovchansk, despite intense combat with Russian troops.

The 82nd Air Assault Brigade, known for its advanced equipment and training, is spearheading the counteroffensive with significant support from special forces and Stryker armored vehicles. Military documents from last year indicate that this brigade is exceptionally well-equipped, boasting around 150 armored infantry carriers, including 90 Strykers and 14 British Challenger tanks. The brigade had previously been held in reserve until it was deployed to the Zaporizhzhia region in August 2023.

Ukrainian forces have managed to make incremental gains, despite continuous Russian efforts to reclaim lost ground. The fighting, described as “dynamic” by ISW, involves close-quarters combat and frequent exchanges along the Vovcha River.

The deployment of Stryker vehicles, known for their speed, maneuverability, and effective command-and-control capabilities, has been crucial.

Despite Ukrainian advances, the situation remains volatile. Russian forces continue to launch artillery and air strikes, resulting in civilian casualties in the nearby city of Kharkiv. The Kremlin committed over 20,000 troops to the Kharkiv sector in early May. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

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