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NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

May 10.

*Poland: New phishing campaign points to information-theft risks from Russian state-backed actors. On 9 May, Poland’s Computer Security Incident Response Team (CSIRT) and its Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT Polska) reported that the Russian state-sponsored group ‘APT28’ has targeted multiple Polish government institutions in a new phishing campaign since early May. The campaign starts with a phishing email tricking potential victims into opening a malicious payload. The payload then establishes a connection with actor-controlled servers to exfiltrate strategic information from a victim’s system. APT28 typically employs topics of interest to lure targets, highlighting the tailored nature of its operation. APT28 has targeted large numbers of government bodies and NGOs in various cyber operations since 2015. It typically tries to obtain strategic intelligence to bolster Russia’s political pursuits. We assess that this underscores sustained security and information-theft risks stemming from Russian state-sponsored actors, especially in the run-up to the European Parliament, UK and US elections, and also amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

May 09.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

  • OFFENSIVES: Ukraine has stated that the war is now entering a new stage amid Russian preparations for a summer offensive; Russian forces are making steady advances across the frontline despite Western aid beginning to reach Ukrainian forces
  • STRIKES: Overnight on 7-8 May, Russia launched a large-scale strike principally targeting energy and railway infrastructure
  • NUCLEAR: Moscow has ordered snap non-strategic nuclear drills, almost certainly in response to recent comments by France and the UK amid wider efforts to deter growing discussions of Western involvement in Ukraine
  • FORECAST: The deputy chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) assessed that Russia is attempting to destabilise Ukraine via a three-fold campaign ahead of the expected summer offensive
  • OFFENSIVES: On 3 May, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the war is entering a new stage as Russian forces prepare for a fresh offensive. Despite US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stating on 5 May that Ukraine is planning for a new counter-offensive in 2025, Ukraine does not have the materiel or personnel required to launch any serious counter-offensive before next year. As such, Zelensky reiterated that the immediate priorities for Ukrainian forces will be spoiling operations, designed to disrupt ongoing Russian assaults and undermine preparations for the coming summer offensive. In the meantime, however, Russian forces continue to advance on multiple fronts. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu confirmed on 3 May that Russian forces have taken 211 square miles (547 sq km) of territory in 2024, which is likely broadly accurate.
  • BAKHMUT: Over the last week, Russian offensive operations towards Chasiv Yar (Donetsk) have failed to achieve any confirmed advances, with Russia’s principal offensive efforts seemingly focused to the north-west of Avdiivka (Donetsk). One Ukrainian battalion commander confirmed on 8 May that Russian forces currently enjoy a ten-to-one personnel advantage near Chasiv Yar, with reports of Russian infantry units regularly attempting to cross the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal east of the city. Ukrainian units have seemingly been able to repel these attacks in recent days and Ukrainian forces are also reportedly repairing bridges across the canal which were previously been struck by Russian forces. Nevertheless, another Ukrainian officer of a battalion fighting in the area reported on 7 May that Russian forces are deploying more tanks and armoured vehicles with metal anti-drone plate protection in the sector, which are increasingly attacking at dawn and dusk to minimise unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) visibility.
  • DONETSK: Russian forces are continuing to advance north of Avdiivka and have recently expanded their salient, a move which will likely support further tactical gains. Geolocated footage from 4 May shows Russian forces operating in the centre and outskirts of Arkhanhelske (Donetsk), a settlement located north-west of Avdiivka. Additional footage from 3 May indicates that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Arkhanhelske. The capture of the settlement has likely allowed Russian troops to control Keramik and Novokalynove (both Donetsk), two settlements located south-east of Arkhanhelske. Notably, On 8 May, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MOD) claimed that its forces captured Novokalynove. We assess this claim to be likely. The persistent shortage of military personnel and equipment likely accounts for Ukraine’s withdrawal from Arkhanhelske. The capture of the settlement is a notable tactical advance indicating that the Russian command is focusing operations north-east of Avdiivka to exploit the window before recently approved US aid arrives in Ukraine.
  • DONETSK: Notably, geolocated footage from 8 May shows that Russian forces advanced 2.5 miles (4km) north of Ocheretyne, located to the north-west of Avdiivka, towards the eastern outskirts of Novooleksandrivka (also north-west of Avdiivka). The footage also indicates that Ukrainian forces do not maintain positions in the northwestern outskirts of Ocheretyne. Meanwhile, Ukrainian military officials reported that small Russian assault groups broke into the town of Krasnohorivka, north of Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces halted their progress at the local Nazar Voloshyn plant. Russian forces are reportedly conducting offensive operations in the settlements of Netailove and Pevomaiske, north-east of Krasnohorivka. Russia’s recent tactical gains around Ocheretyne and Krasnohorivka likely indicate that the Russian command is setting conditions for further advances towards Pokrovsk, a major logical hub located around 20 miles (32km) west of the frontline.
  • KHARKIV: On 5 May, a Ukrainian military observer noted that the Russian command has reportedly redeployed a battalion of the 76th Airborne (VDV) division in Russia’s Kursk oblast, bordering Ukraine’s Kharkiv oblast. The Ukrainian military observer also noted that the Russian command is forming the Northern Grouping of Forces from elements of the Leningrad Military District (LMD) with intentions for it to operate along the Belgorod-Kharkiv line.
  • KHARKIV: In an interview with The Times published on 3 May, the Commander of Ukraine’s Ground Forces Oleksandr Pavlyuk stated that the Russians have plans to possibly capture Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, but that the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts remain Moscow’s primary objectives. Citing Ukrainian special services intelligence, it remains unclear how ‘seriously’ these plans are being taken, and when they will be implemented. However, Vadym Skibitiskyi, Deputy Head of GUR, also assessed that Russian forces will aim to concentrate between 50,000-70,000 personnel for such an operation. We continue to assess that even this concentration is highly unlikely to provide Russian forces with the capability to seize Kharkiv city in the short-to-medium term, though tactical advances and spoiling and diversionary attacks across the Kharkiv and (to a lesser extent) Sumy oblast borders remain a realistic possibility during the upcoming summer offensive.
  • KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
  • OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 3 May, Kharkiv oblast head, Oleh Synehubov, reported that Russian forces have reconstituted assault units with equipment and fresh convict recruits in the Kupiansk sector. Synehubov noted that Russian forces are currently focusing their offensive operations on the Kyslivka and Tabaivka sectors, both south-east of Kupiansk. He explained that the Russian command periodically shifts its focus on different parts of the Oskil-Kreminna frontline to identify the weaknesses of Ukrainian positions in the sector.
  • OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 6 May, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that its forces captured Kotlyarivka, located 12.4 miles (20km) north-east of Kupiansk, in Kharkiv oblast. Russian sources claimed that the capture of the settlement has allowed Russian forces to complete the takeover of Kyslivka, south-east of Kupiansk. While such claims remain unverified, geolocated footage from 2 May, indicates that Russian troops are operating in central Kyslivka. On 8 May, the Russian MoD claimed that its forces captured Kyslivka, though this remains visually unconfirmed.
  • SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
  • STRIKES: On 4 May, Ukraine intercepted 13 Shahed-136/131 drones over Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv (Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts, respectively). Falling debris reportedly caused fires in various sites in Kharkiv city. Russia also launched four S-300 missiles. On 5 May, Ukraine intercepted 23 of the 24 Shahed-136/131 drones over Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts. Early on 6 May, Ukrainian air defences intercepted 12 of the 13 Shahed-136/131 drones targeting Sumy oblast. However, regional authorities reported that Russian drones damaged energy facilities in Sumy oblast.
  • STRIKES: Meanwhile, On 6 May, Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) reportedly co-ordinnated a maritime drone strike, successfully hitting a Russian patrol boat in Crimea. The vessel was a Russian Project 12150 Mangust-class patrol boat operating in Vuzka Bay near Chornomorske. Meanwhile, Russian Belgorod oblast authorities reported that Ukraine attacked the oblast with more than 40 drones overnight on 6-7 May.
  • STRIKES: Overnight on 7-8 May, Russia launched a large-scale strike principally targeting energy infrastructure and railway infrastructure. The attack included 21 Shahed-136/31 drones, and 55 missiles, a barrage consisting of 45 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles, four Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles, two Iskandr-M ballistic missiles, an Iskandr-K ballistic missile, two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and one Kh-47 Kinzhal ballistic missile. Ukraine’s air defences reportedly intercepted 33 Kh-101, all four Kalibr cruise missiles, two Kh-49/69 missiles and 20 Shahed drones.
  • STRIKES: The latest attack underscores Russia’s ongoing strategy to exploit Ukraine’s persistent air defence shortages to target energy infrastructure. Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushcenko reported that the attack hit power generation and transmission facilities in Ivano-Frankivsk, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Poltava, Vinnytsia and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Concurrently Ukraine’s largest private energy operator said that Russian forces also targeted three unspecified thermal power plants (TTPs) and seriously damaged equipment. A spokesperson for Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s national grid operator, explained that the attack will force authorities to implement shutdowns across Ukraine due to energy shortages. In Kyiv oblast, authorities reported the attack damaged residential buildings. With the provision of Western defence equipment unlikely to improve the state of Ukraine’s air defences, Russia’s striking efforts will likely cause significant damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, driving long-term energy security and socio-economic health risks.
  • STRIKES: The latest attack also targeted Ukrainian railway infrastructure, highly likely reflecting Moscow’s efforts to undermine Ukraine’s ability to transit Western military aid to the front line. Following the attack, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) stated that its forces targeted energy infrastructure and military facilities to disrupt Kyiv’s ability to produce military material and transfer Western defence to the front line. Ukraine’s state railway operator reported that Russian forces targeted railway infrastructure along the Kyiv-Kherson and Kyiv-Mykolaiv routes. Such reports align with our assessment that Russia will likely target railway infrastructure and major logistics nodes before Western aid arrives in Ukraine.
  • STRIKES: Early on 9 May, Ukrainian air defences intercepted 17 of the 20 Russian-launched Shahed drones.
  • STRIKES: On 6 May, the Independent reported that satellite imagery shows Russia now relies on overland routes to supply frontlines in Eastern Ukraine rather than the Kerch Bridge. This likely reflects efforts to mitigate supply chain and logistical disruption risks from Ukraine’s efforts to strike the Kerch Bridge. Russia’s decision to reorient to newly constructed overland railways will likely diminish the strategic significance of the Kerch Bridge for Kyiv, though Ukraine is still likely to want to destroy the bridge given its symbolic importance.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

  • FRANCE: French President Emmanuel Macron stated in an interview published on 2 May that he still believes Ukraine’s European allies should not rule out sending troops to Ukraine. Macron assessed that hesitancy from European allies would incentivise Russia to prolong the war, adding that Europe has been too cautious by defining the limits of what action it can take. Macron suggested that the deployment of European troops in Ukraine could be a possibility if Russian forces were to break through the front lines and if Kyiv were to request assistance, though he said this is not the case currently. Our assessment remains that a deployment of Western personnel as Macron envisions remains highly unlikely in the near term (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 29 February 2024).
  • FRANCE: Additionally, reports emerging on 6 May that the French Foreign Legion had deployed troops to Ukraine, specifically to Sloviansk, were proven false. The reports are almost certainly Russian disinformation aimed at deterring French and wider Western intervention in Ukraine and almost certainly came in response to Macron’s suggestions that troops could eventually be deployed to Ukraine.
  • UK: On 6 May, Russia warned the UK that it could hit British military installations and equipment inside Ukraine and elsewhere if Ukrainian forces used UK-provided weapons to strike Russian territory. This comes after UK Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron said Ukraine has the right to use British weapons to hit targets inside Russia (see STRIKES above). Moscow said this contradicted a previous assurance that long-range capabilities given to Kyiv would not be used against Russia. While Moscow highly likely voiced this threat with the goal of London retracting Cameron’s statement, it remains highly unlikely that Russia would actually strike British military sites outside of Ukraine in the near term. However, hybrid and plausibly deniable attacks remain highly likely in the coming months.
  • NUCLEAR: On 6 May, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that President Vladimir Putin had ordered tactical nuclear weapons drills in response to ‘provocative statements’ from Western officials, likely alluding to Macron and UK Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron. The ministry did not mention when precisely these exercises would take place but said missile formations of Russia’s Southern Military District, as well as aviation and naval forces, would participate. It is also possible that the drills were announced in response to an alleged Ukrainian strike against an Iskandr missile launch site in Crimea on 4 May using Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS). Nevertheless, we assess that the development is highly unlikely to be indicative of Russian willingness to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine in the near term.
  • INAUGURATION: Russian President Vladimir Putin was inaugurated on 7 May for his fifth presidential term. Although the US and most EU member states boycotted the ceremony, reports emerged prior that six European states were expected to send their representatives to attend. These countries were Cyprus, France, Greece, Hungary, Malta and Slovakia. Delegates from these states attended despite EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell stating his opinion that the bloc’s member states should not attend. The limited presence of EU member states at Putin’s inauguration underscores divisions within the bloc as to how to diplomatically engage with Russia.
  • MOBILISATION: The UK’s Defence Intelligence (DI) reported on 5 May that Russia is preparing for military conscription in Russia-occupied areas of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia oblast based on a decree signed by the regional governor in mid-April. According to the DI, this would be the first conscription drive in this region since the Russian annexation in September 2022. Nevertheless, the DI assessed that a large proportion of the region’s population has left, meaning that the decree would be unlikely to generate significant manpower.
  • AID: The first deliveries of US military aid reportedly arrived in Ukraine last week, but complicated logistical challenges mean it will likely take several weeks before crucial materiel reaches the frontline in large quantities.
  • AID: The New York Times (NYT) reported on 3 May that recently pledged Western weapons could realistically take months to arrive in quantities large enough to strengthen Ukrainian defences on the battlefield. An unspecified British defence official said capabilities included in an aid package announced by London on 23 April began being transported to Ukraine weeks prior. On the other hand, additional shipments of long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles could take several weeks to arrive. However, artillery, air defence interceptors and other ammunition, among which are some of the capabilities Ukraine needs the most, can be delivered at a quicker pace. Overall, however, despite Western aid pledges, Ukraine will highly likely continue to face shortages of certain equipment in the coming weeks.
  • AID: Meanwhile, on 6 May, Spanish Defence Minister Margarita Robles confirmed that Ukraine has already received a ‘set’ of missiles for its Patriot air defence systems from Madrid. Robles stated that the shipment reached Ukraine last week, though she did not provide further details as to how many were sent. It is, therefore, uncertain as to how significant this shipment will be in bolstering Ukraine’s air defences.
  • AID: Bloomberg reported on 3 May that the US is pushing a plan in concert with other G7 nations that could provide as much as USD 50 bn in assistance to Ukraine. The potential package would be funded using the windfall profits from frozen Russian assets, mostly located in Europe. Washington DC hopes to have an agreement on the matter by the time G7 leaders meet at a summit in Italy this June. That said, unspecified insiders have said that this could take longer. Should the G7 nations agree on such a plan in the coming months, we assess that this will highly likely increase the risk of Russian retaliatory appropriations of Western assets.
  • ENERGY: On 8 May, Ukraine’s national power grid operator, Ukrenergo, announced it would limit power supply to industrial and business enterprises between 1800-2300hrs (local time) due to electricity shortages caused by Russian strikes on energy facilities. Ukrenergo also urged household consumers to use electricity sparingly during these hours. It warned that, if evening energy usage continues to rise, Ukrenergo will need to take measures to balance the grid, such as emergency energy blackouts for household consumers. Although the restrictions were likely enforced during these hours to cause minimal interference for enterprises, they nevertheless indicate significant energy disruption for business operations in Ukraine due to Russian strikes.

FORECAST

STRATEGY: In an interview in The Economist published on 2 May, Deputy Chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) Vadym Skibitskyi set out three ways Russia is attempting to destabilise Ukraine and set conditions for a military and political victory. The first of these efforts is centred around Russia’s ongoing military offensives. These are designed to exploit Ukraine’s current materiel and personnel shortages to achieve notable battlefield advantage before Victory Day on 9 May or President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing in mid-May. In this respect, Russian forces are focusing on taking Chasiv Yar, located west of Bakhmut. Skibitsky acknowledged that it is ‘probably a matter of time’ before the town falls.

Skibitskyi went on to outline the for of the second Russian effort to destabilise Ukraine: an ongoing information operation designed to undermine Ukraine’s mobilisation efforts and the legitimacy of President Zelensky. According to Skibitskyi, Russian propagandists are preparing the ground for an intensification of information operations in May known as ‘Maidan 3’ (referring to the previous Maidan Revolution in Ukraine that brought down the pro-Russian government of Viktor Yanukovych in 2014). The key aim of ‘Maidan 3’ is to delegitimise Zelensky, whose presidential term would ordinarily end on 20 May if elections had taken place in March, which they did not due to ongoing martial law. The information operation reportedly aims to target Ukrainian military personnel in particular and will likely aim to steadily erode confidence in Zelensky.

The third Russian effort to destabilise Ukraine is a campaign to diplomatically isolate Ukraine, according to Skibitskyi’s assessment. This operation will likely involve supplementary information and deterrence operations against key European and US decision-makers, aiming at fomenting their own concerns about escalating the war by increasing support for Ukraine. The ongoing Russian nuclear drills (see NUCLEAR above) are likely part of this deterrence effort and will aim to increase concerns of a nuclear escalation if Ukraine regains the battlefield initiative.

Notably, Skibitskyi also acknowledged that it is unlikely that Ukraine can win the war purely via military means on the battlefield, and that even the liberation of all Ukrainian territory would not necessarily end the war. He noted that all wars must end with a treaty and that Ukraine and Russia are currently jostling for the best possible negotiating position. Skibitskyi also observed that such negotiations could realistically begin as early as the second half of 2025. Notably, the Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetti on 6 May called for the West to support a truce in Ukraine, marking a notable shift in his stance since November 2023 when he said the time was not right for ceasefire talks. Ultimately, a short-term ceasefire remains highly unlikely, with the upcoming peace summit held in Switzerland in June unlikely to represent a genuine opportunity for a ceasefire, especially since Russia will not be invited to the talks.

May 08.

*Ukraine-Russia: Presence of Russian networks will sustain assassination risks for Ukrainian officials. On 7 May, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported that it had thwarted an assassination plot using a network of agents recruited by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The SBU disclosed the arrest of two colonels from Ukraine’s State Security Administration (UDO), which is tasked with ensuring the security of Ukrainian officials, who allegedly leaked classified information to Russia. Aside from Zelensky, the network reportedly intended to target other high-ranking Ukrainian officials. In mid-April, the Polish authorities reported the arrest of one of its citizens suspected of spying for Russia in a plot to assassinate Zelensky. This latest development illustrates that Russia has operatives in Ukraine and other countries despite Kyiv’s likely efforts to root them out of Ukrainian state structures. Zelensky and other high-ranking officials will highly likely remain vulnerable to Russia-facilitated/supported assassination plots throughout the war.

*Georgia: Destabilisation allegations will exacerbate polarisation, Russian disinformation risks. On 8 May, Georgia’s State Security Service (SSSG) issued a statement alleging that activists protesting the foreign agent bill are financed abroad via cryptocurrencies. The SSSG explained that protesters want to overthrow the government by replicating tactics used during ‘colour revolutions’, referring to various anti-government movements across the former Soviet Union. The statement also alleged that some instigators fighting for Ukraine would participate in the plot. These claims are consistent with the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party’s anti-Western rhetoric, echoing Russia’s claims that the West is seeking to foment ‘colour revolutions’ in Georgia. The latest allegations were made amid an intensification of demonstrations against the Russian-style foreign agent bill, which will threaten the operations of Western-funded NGOs and independent media outlets. Several prominent pro-Kremlin Russian media outlets reported on the allegations, likely indicating Moscow’s efforts to amplify the SSSG claims as part of a disinformation campaign. Ultimately, these claims will exacerbate tensions, polarisation and therefore unrest risks.

May 07.

*Russia: Electoral ‘foreign agent’ restrictions will highly likely pass, undermining opposition figures. On 6 May, the lower house of Russia’s parliament (the State Duma) approved a bill in the second and third readings that would bar people designated as ‘foreign agents’ from participating in elections. Such individuals will be excluded from participating in federal, regional and local votes. This comes after several opposition figures bearing this designation announced their intention to run in Moscow’s City Duma election in September. Russia’s upper house of parliament (the Federation Council) must approve the legislation before it is sent to Russian President Vladimir Putin for signing. We assess that the bill will almost certainly be passed with minimal legislative opposition. Moscow first introduced legislation relating to foreign agents in 2012; it has since been widely used to suppress Kremlin critics and dissidents. As such, the latest bill almost certainly aims to impede opposition figures from seeking political office and is further evidence of the Russian government’s efforts to restrict political pluralism.

*Ukraine: Resumption of bond payments by 2025 would highly likely drive socio-economic risks. On 4 May, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that a group of bondholders, including firms such as BlackRock and Pimco, want Ukraine to resume bond payments in 2025. The group of investors will likely propose a deal whereby Kyiv resumes debt payments in exchange for debt relief. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, bondholders agreed to a two-year suspension of bond repayments, which ends in August. At the same time, Western countries recently agreed that Ukraine should start re-imbursing their loans only in 2027, acknowledging Kyiv’s persistent economic difficulties resulting from the ongoing war with Russia. In 2023, Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt increased by 30.8%, representing 85% of the country’s GDP. The likely absence of a deal by August would significantly degrade Kyiv’s ability to borrow money from international markets. Ultimately, a resumption of bond repayments in 2025 would highly likely strain the country’s budget, driving longer-term socio-economic health risks and making Ukraine even more reliant upon international financial assistance to sustain the war effort. (Source: Sibylline)

 

13 May 24. Russian forces bear down on Ukraine border town in Kharkiv region.

  • Summary
  • Russian troops focus on two border towns
  • Fighting rages on outskirts of border town
  • Ukraine evacuates nearly six thousand people from area

Russian forces attacking Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region were engaged in fighting on the outskirts of the border town of Vovchansk, Kyiv’s troops said on Sunday, as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy described heavy fighting there and in the east.

Moscow troops entered into the Kharkiv region on Friday, opening a northeastern front in the 27-month war that has long been waged in the south and east. Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, is 30 km (18 miles) from the Russian border.

Soldiers returning from a combat mission in the area said the fighting had reached the edges of Vovchansk, a town around 4 km from the border and 45 km from Kharkiv city, describing helping some troops break out of Russian encirclement.

“The town is ours. They (the Russians) are biting on the outskirts, but we are biting back. And we will bite for every metre,” said a Ukrainian soldier.

“Our boys got surrounded. We helped them. They got out and set up a defensive line along the street, inflicting considerable losses to enemy infantry.”

In a post-midnight report, Ukraine’s General Staff said Russian forces had achieved “tactical success” with 14 of 22 attempted advances in the area still proceeding.

Fighting was raging around Vovchansk, it said, with Russian forces “deploying significant forces for its attack on the town”. But it said Russian troops were “taking no account of their own losses”, with at least 100 reported dead.

The Russian military says it has seized control of at least nine border villages in the Kharkiv region. Kyiv says it is repelling the attacks and battling to control the settlements.

00:13Putin taps economist to run defense, replacing Shoigu

Several Russian media outlets, including Mash and Readovka, reported that Moscow’s troops had entered Vovchansk.

The main thrusts of Russia’s attack were aimed at Vovchansk and the town of Lyptsi around 7.5 km from the border and some 20 km (12 miles) from the city of Kharkiv, Ukrainian military spokesperson Nazar Voloshyn said.

Tamaz Gambarashvili, head of Vovchansk’s military administration, told Reuters the town remained under Ukrainian control after its soldiers turned back small groups of Russians.

Russian drones, he said, were “constantly above Vovchansk”.

Kharkiv regional Governor Oleh Synehubov said Russian forces were “intensifying their shelling of Vovchansk”. Nearly 6,000 residents had been evacuated from the area, he said.

VOLUNTEERS READY RESIDENTS FOR EVACUATION

Volunteers in flak jackets and helmets raced through village neighbourhoods, pleading with residents in damaged homes to pack up a handful of possessions and leave for evacuation points.

Evacuee Kostiantyn Tymchenko said fighting was raging 500 metres from his house, with Russian troops on the opposite bank of the Vovcha River.

“Ukrainian tanks roll in, shoot and roll out. On the other side there is shouting all the time,” he told Reuters.

Despite the constant explosions nearby, some elderly residents were reluctant to go. Others were sluggish in preparing, despite urging from volunteers.

One man was brought in to an evacuation point with torn-off fingers, an incident medics said occurred after Russian forces shot him as he was leaving his house. As medics attended to his wounds, the man said “What did I do to deserve this?'”

Zelenskiy, in his nightly video address, said “defensive battles” had engulfed a string of Kharkiv region villages.

Fighting, he said, was “no less acute” in the Donetsk region.

Ukraine is on the defensive after months of slowed supplies of U.S. munitions. Russia’s forces hold a significant advantage in manpower and munitions.

In 2022, soon after the start of their full-scale invasion, Russian forces reached the suburbs of the city of Kharkiv before being driven back to the border.

Kyiv says months of delays by the U.S. Congress before voting through the aid package last month have cost them on the battlefield. It now hopes significant quantities of the approved assistance will arrive quickly to bolster the defence effort.

On the other side of the border in the Belgorod region a whole section of a Russian apartment block collapsed, killing at least 13 people, after it was struck by a missile launched by Ukraine and shot down by Russia, Russian officials said.  Kyiv did not immediately comment. (Source: Reuters)

 

13 May 24. Russia says it downs 16 Ukraine-launched missiles, 31 drones. The Russian defence ministry said on Monday its air defence systems destroyed 16 missiles and 31 drones that Ukraine launched at Russian territory overnight, including 12 missiles over the battered border region of Belgorod. Five houses were damaged in Belgorod, but according to preliminary information, there were no injuries, Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov wrote on the Telegram messaging app. On Sunday, 15 people were killed in Belgorod when a section of an apartment block collapsed after being struck by fragments of a Soviet-era missile, launched by Ukraine and shot down by Russian forces, Russia said. The Russian defence ministry said on Monday the 12 guided missiles were launched from a Ukrainian Vilkha multiple rocket launcher. The ministry also said four Storm Shadow aircraft guided missiles and seven drones were downed over Crimea, eight drones were destroyed over the Kursk region and four were intercepted over the Lipetsk region. A drone sparked a short-lived fire at an electrical substation in the Kursk region, Igor Artamonov, the governor of the region in Russia’s south, wrote on Telegram.

“There are no casualties. The fire in the territory of the electrical substation is being extinguished,” Artamonov said.

Reuters could not independently verify the reports. There was no immediate comment from Ukraine. Kyiv says that targeting Russia’s military, transport and energy infrastructure undermines Moscow’s war effort and is an answer to the countless deadly attacks by Russia. (Source: Reuters)

 

12 May 24. Vladimir Putin has replaced two of his longest-serving security officials in a surprise reshuffle, suggesting the Russian president is dissatisfied with the handling of his two-year invasion of Ukraine. Putin, who was sworn in for a fifth term in office earlier this week extending his quarter-century rule until at least 2030, has moved Sergei Shoigu, the defence minister since 2012, to become head of Russia’s security council on Sunday, according to the upper house of parliament. Andrei Belousov, a deputy prime minister and longtime economic adviser to Putin, is to replace Shoigu. Nikolai Patrushev, a hawkish former spy and one of Putin’s closest aides who has led the security council since 2008, will take up an unspecified new position. Putin’s appointments mark the biggest shake-up of his security officials in a decade and a half, even as his forces continue to advance against Ukraine’s outmanned, outgunned army. The Kremlin painted Shoigu’s move as part of efforts to rein in Russia’s runaway defence spending. On Putin’s orders to supply armed forces fighting in Ukraine this has been earmarked for the current year at a record Rbs10.8tn ($118.5bn). Economic adviser Andrei Belousov will become Russia’s new defence minister © AP Shoigu had previously been seen as a near-untouchable figure thanks to his closeness to Putin — with whom he has holidayed several times in Tuva, his home region in Siberia — and for his success in seeing off the challenge from a mutiny by mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin last year. However, even as Russia gained the upper hand in Ukraine in recent months, Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff, continued to arouse widespread anger among supporters of the war over the military’s many battlefield failures.

Russia’s security services arrested Timur Ivanov, a deputy defence minister, on corruption charges late last month, a step seen as indicating Putin had wanted to weaken Shoigu. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, told reporters that the Kremlin wanted to appoint an economic official to run the defence ministry after Russia’s security budget ballooned to 6.6 per cent of gross domestic product. “This isn’t a critical number for now but, because of well-known geopolitical circumstances around us, we are gradually getting closer to the situation in the mid-1980s when the share of spending on security was just 4 per cent,” Peskov said. “This demands special attention,” Peskov added. “It’s very important to put the security economy in line with the economy of the country, so that it meets the dynamics of the current moment.” “It’s also important to point out that, on the battlefield, he who is more open to innovation [ . . . ] wins. At this stage, the president has decided that a civilian should run the defence ministry.” Recommended News in-depthRussian economy Russian finance flows slump after US targets Vladimir Putin’s war machine Peskov said Belousov’s tenure as an economic adviser to Putin, as minister of economic development, and as first deputy prime minister, was suitable experience for a defence ministry that needed to be “open to innovation, implementing advanced ideas, and creating conditions for economic competition”. He said Belousov’s appointment would not affect the work of Gerasimov, Russia’s top commander in Ukraine. He did not explain why Patrushev had been replaced, telling reporters: Patrushev “continues to work, and in the next few days we will tell you where”. Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment who studies the Russian military, said the shake-up showed it was “clear that Russian economic elites performed far better than military elites in this war.” Belousov’s appointment means Gerasimov will eventually also be replaced, Kofman said. “Shoigu was incompetent but loyal. The same can be said of Gerasimov. In the past chiefs of general staff were replaced with the minister of defence. Although Peskov has said that Gerasimov will stay on, Belousov will likely want his own person in there.” (Source: FT.com)

 

10 May 24. Ukrainian intelligence identifies Russians launching Kinzhal hypersonic missiles on Ukraine. Officers and analysts of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) have identified 29 command, flight and technical personnel belonging to the 44th Separate Aviation Regiment of the Special Purpose Long-Range Aviation of Russia’s Aerospace Forces who are responsible for launching Kinzhal hypersonic missile attacks on Ukraine. The 44 Russians include a colonel, seven lieutenant colonels and several majors. The full list is available on the website of DIU. The 44th Separate Air Force Regiment (military unit No. 83122) was formed on 1 December 2021, and its permanent location is the Savasleyka airfield in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. The regiment has a two-squadron structure with up to 24 MiG-31K long-range fighter-interceptor aircraft. The regiment’s MiG-31K aircraft tail numbers have also been established: RF-20862, RF-03230, RF-20882, RF-03231, RF-03234, RF-19275, RF-94268, RF-42251, RF-42253, RF-20867 and RF-20883. For reference: The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-to-ground missile system (500 kg warhead, nuclear armament possible) is designed to deliver the fastest possible strikes at a range of up to 2,000 km. The missile’s hypersonic flight speed at the final stage is achieved by accelerating the carrier aircraft to supersonic parameters (i.e. the MiG-31K acts as a first stage). (Source: Google/Pravda)

 

11 May 24. General Says West’s Defense Industrial Base Will Outpace Russia’s.

It’s easy for an autocratic regime like Russia to accelerate their defense industrial base at the expense of its economy to continue its war in Ukraine, along with help from Iran and North Korea, said Air Force Lt. Gen. Steven L. Basham.

Basham, deputy commander, U.S. European Command, spoke yesterday at the livestreamed Foundation for Defense of Democracies event, “Transatlantic Security After 75 Years of NATO.”

The West’s defense industrial base is also accelerating, he said.

“Make no mistake. It’s picking up speed. It will continue to accelerate past the capability of Russia. The time that is being spent by Russia inside Ukraine is also time that we have to get our industrial base to where it needs to be,” Basham said.

“Russia, a country that used to pride as a defense exporter. they seem to be importing an awful lot of not only equipment, but also technology. And a lot of that technology is actually coming from China. The challenges that Russia faces in their own equipment, they’re actually making up for by developing that relationship with China,” he said.

“The defense of our nation starts well outside the borders of the United States,” he said. “All asking for is our continued unwavering, consistent, continuous support. I think that’s actually what they’re getting right now. We’ve just got to stay that course. And I think we need to do a much better job of explaining the American people,” he said.

The U.S., its allies and partners are becoming stronger and are standing up to Russia’s aggression, he said, noting Finland and Sweden’s recent accession into NATO.

Basham spoke of the importance of defending NATO, saying, “Make no mistake. No matter how this ends in Ukraine, Russia will not stop with Ukraine unless they’re stopped in Ukraine.”

Presence matters, he said, referring to U.S. troop deployments to Europe.

“You have to be with your allies to be able to integrate. You have to be with your allies to campaign, to exercise. And by the way, it can’t be just episodic,” he said, regarding U.S. commitment to NATO.

Basham addressed the challenge from China, noting that like Russia, Beijing is a global threat, including its malign influence in Europe, particularly in the areas of space and cyber. (Source: U.S. DoD)

 

11 May 24. Russian Lancet Drone Destroys Ukrainian FrankenSAM Air Defense System in First Reported Attack. A video was released on social media, showing a Russian Lancet drone on May 11, 2024, successfully targeting and destroying a Ukrainian FrankenSAM air defense missile system. This event, a major milestone, marks the first reported destruction of the FrankenSAM system since its introduction into the Ukrainian battlefield. The FrankenSAM system, a unique hybrid air defense missile system, combines a Soviet-era Buk air defense vehicle equipped with Western anti-aircraft missiles, including missiles like AIM-7 and RIM-7. This novel approach to integrating these technologies was first reported in December 2023, and the systems reportedly became operational in Ukraine by January 2024.

The Buk air defense system, originating from the Soviet Union and deployed since 1979, is a sophisticated medium-range, surface-to-air missile system designed to address multiple aerial threats in a combat environment. Mounted on a tracked vehicle, the Buk is highly mobile, allowing for operation across various terrains and quick repositioning, essential for effective deployment in dynamic battlefield conditions. The system comprises multiple components, including a missile launcher vehicle, target acquisition radar, and a command vehicle, which can operate independently or within a coordinated battalion setup.

The AIM-7 Sparrow is an American medium-range, radar-guided air-to-air missile extensively utilized by the US military and its allies. Designed for engagement from aircraft, the missile can target enemies at distances up to approximately 50 kilometers (31 miles) and at altitudes up to 30,000 feet. The RIM-7 Sea Sparrow’s naval counterpart is adapted for shipborne air defense and can intercept incoming missiles and aircraft using similar radar guidance systems. The RIM-7 integrates with shipborne radars and firing systems, providing essential defense capabilities for naval vessels against various aerial threats.

Visual analysis of the video highlights a distinct feature of the FrankenSAM: the presence of missile containers that are uncharacteristic of traditional Soviet-Russian Buk systems. This detail underscores the unique blend of technologies employed in the FrankenSAM units.

The release of this footage has sparked discussions among military analysts about the capabilities and future impact of drone warfare on conventional air defense systems. The Lancet drone’s effectiveness against a newly integrated and technologically advanced system like the FrankenSAM may prompt a reassessment of air defense strategies in the region.

The Lancet drone is a loitering munition or “kamikaze” drone developed and manufactured by Russia, designed to seek and destroy targets by crashing into them with an onboard explosive charge. It is equipped with optical sensors and can be controlled remotely to engage ground targets, making it a potent tool for precision strikes. In Ukraine, the Lancet drone is actively used by Russian forces for targeted attacks on key military assets, such as artillery positions, command centers, and air defense systems, including the recent destruction of a Ukrainian FrankenSAM air defense system. Its deployment highlights the increasing role of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in modern warfare, providing capabilities for both surveillance and direct engagement with reduced risk to personnel. (Source: Google/https://armyrecognition.com/)

 

10 May 24. Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine.
Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration’s fifty-seventh tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package has an estimated value of $400m and includes capabilities to support Ukraine’s most urgent battlefield requirements, including air defense, artillery rounds, armored vehicles, and anti-tank weapons.
The capabilities in this announcement include:
• Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;
• Additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
• Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
• Equipment to integrate Western launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukraine’s systems;
• Additional High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems(HIMARS) and ammunition;
• 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
• Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles;
• M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
• Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles;
• Trailers to transport heavy equipment;
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
• Precision aerial munitions;
• High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
• Small arms and additional rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades;
• Demolitions munitions and equipment for obstacle clearing;
• Coastal and riverine patrol boats;
• Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear protective equipment; and
• Spare parts, training munitions, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.
The United States will continue to work together with some 50 Allies and partners to ensure Ukraine’s brave defenders receive the critical capabilities needed to fight Russian aggression. (Source: U.S. DoD)

 

10 May 24. Canada to give C$76m to help buy air defenses for Ukraine. Canada will contribute C$76m ($55.7m) to a German-led initiative that aims to quickly source and deliver air defense systems to Ukraine to fend off Russian attacks, Defence Minister Bill Blair said on Friday. Blair made the announcement during a visit by German counterpart Boris Pistorius. Berlin launched the initiative last month, citing increased Russian strikes.
“These systems will help defend against Russian aerial attacks that have killed thousands of Ukrainians and destroyed hospitals, power plants and apartment blocks,” Blair said.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Canada has committed over C$14bn in total support for Ukraine, including C$4bn in military assistance.
($1 = 1.3641 Canadian dollars) (Source: Reuters)

 

10 May 24. Russian missile strike sets houses ablaze in Ukraine’s Kharkiv, officials say. A Russian missile attack on Ukraine’s northeastern city of Kharkiv injured two people and set three houses on fire in the early hours of Friday, local officials said.
Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, which lies just 30 km from the Russian border, is particularly exposed to aerial attacks and has been badly damaged as Moscow has stepped up its airstrikes in recent months.
Two people, including an 11-year-old child, were shell-shocked, Governor Oleh Syniehubov wrote on the Telegram messaging app.
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Mayor Ihor Terekhov said an S-300 missile crashed into the city, damaging 26 buildings, destroying two of them completely. He did not clarify what those buildings were.
A Reuters cameraman at the scene saw fires raging in what appeared to be residential homes at dawn. The emergency services raced to put out the fires, working among the rubble.
Russia launched two S-300/S-400 missiles at the region overnight, Ukrainian air force spokesperson Illya Yevlash said in a television broadcast. It was unclear where the second one landed.
Another guided bomb attack damaged around 25 buildings when it landed near an infrastructure facility in the town of Derhachi near the Russian border, Syniehubov said.
Russia, which launched its full-scale invasion more than two years ago, stepped up the intensity of its missile and drone attacks on Ukraine in March this year.
Electricity infrastructure has been badly damaged, forcing authorities to introduce rolling blackouts in Kharkiv and the surrounding region, raising fears about what lies in store when energy consumption rises later this year.
In the southern regions, the air force intercepted all 10 drones fired by Russia at the regions of Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kherson.
Moscow denies targeting civilians in its attacks on Ukraine, but hundreds of civilians have died.
It says its strikes on the power grid are legitimate and has cast several major recent strikes as retaliation for Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries.
(Source: Reuters)

10 May 24. Germany to buy three US Himars rocket systems for Ukraine.
But there is still no sign of Berlin providing Kyiv with Taurus long-range missiles
Germany will buy three US Himars systems and transfer them to Ukraine, the defence minister announced during a visit to Washington.
“I can confirm that we will transfer three Himars rocket systems to Ukraine in cooperation with the Americans,” Boris Pistorius told reporters on Thursday. “They come from US armed forces’ stocks and will be paid by us.”
He went on to stress the importance of cooperation between the EU and the US on sending Ukraine the weapons and supplies it needs to repel Russian invaders.
Ukraine already possesses 39 Himars systems, which it has used with great success against Russian command posts and ammunition depots.
There is still no sign of the German government providing Kyiv with the Taurus, a powerful long-range missile system, which Olaf Scholz, the chancellor, said he could not hand over because it would lead to a huge escalation in tensions between Moscow and Berlin.
The Taurus would be capable, in Ukrainian hands, of striking targets deep inside Russia, including the Kremlin in Moscow.
It came as Mr Pistorius warned that Germany could be facing an “arms freeze” as soon as next year due to a lack of funding for the Bundeswehr in the Scholz government’s budget.
Speaking to broadcaster ZDF, Mr Pistorius said the German army needed significant further investment to make it a leading European defence force in the near future.
”[The problem is] money is needed to continue procurement for the Bundeswehr, or else next year and in the following years we will effectively be running into an arms freeze,” the German defence minister said.
“That would really not be a good sign for our allies, but also [not a good sign] with regard to our own defence capability.”
According to German media reports, Mr Pistorius has been lobbying the finance ministry to exempt the army from the country’s famous “debt brake”, which imposes strict limits on government borrowing and spending.
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Officials in the defence ministry have drawn up a memo which argues that this would be legal, as maintaining a credible defence force – the Bundeswehr – is a constitutional requirement in Germany.
(Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

09 May 24. UK Armed Forces minister hails unity of support for Ukraine and Black Sea security during Europe visits.

Armed Forces minister has met with defence leaders and military chiefs in Romania and Bulgaria. This follows the UK government announcing a further £500m in military support for Ukraine and to increase UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP.

  • Armed Forces minister met defence leaders and military chiefs in Romania and Bulgaria
  • Follows UK government announcing a further £500m in military support for Ukraine and to increase UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP
  • Minister visits UK troops deployed on Operation Biloxi, the UK’s contribution to NATO’s enhanced air policing missing in Romania

Working together to strengthen collective security in the Black Sea and the urgency of increasing military support for Ukraine were the focus of visits by the Minister for the Armed Forces to Romania and Bulgaria this week.

In a series of meetings with defence ministers and military chiefs in Bucharest and Sofia on Wednesday and Thursday, Minister Leo Docherty highlighted the UK’s recent commitment of a further half a bn pounds to provide urgent additional military support for Ukraine.

He also highlighted the Prime Minister’s recent commitment to increase UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP in 2030, emphasising the importance of NATO member states following the UK’s lead in investing in their Armed Forces to help deliver stability and deter against potential threats.

Minister for the Armed Forces, Leo Docherty, said: “Putin’s illegal invasion has strengthened defence relationships between democratic countries across Europe and united us in support of Ukraine and freedom.

To uphold the rules-based international order, protect our daily freedoms and deter against potential threats, it is important like-minded nations band together and invest more to ensure our collective security.

In my meetings with defence ministers and chiefs in Romania and Bulgaria, I emphasised how the UK is increasing military support for Ukraine as part of the international effort to ensure Putin fails and democracy prevails.”

The Minister’s visits began on Wednesday when he met UK personnel working at the International Donor Coordination Centre in Wiesbaden, Germany, through which the logistics of military aid deliveries to Ukraine are organised.

He then travelled to Bucharest, where he held meetings with Romanian Minister of National Defense Angel Tîlvăr, State Secretary for Defence Policy, Simona Cojocaru, and Chief of Defence, General Gheorghiță Vlad.

The UK is currently contributing six Typhoon fighter jets and more than 200 Royal Air Force aviators to defend Romania’s airspace as part of Operation Biloxi – the UK’s contribution to NATO’s enhanced air policing mission in southern Europe. Minister Docherty met personnel deployed for the next three months as part of the mission.

After travelling to Sofia, the minister met Bulgarian Defence Minister, Atanas Zapryanov, Chief of Defence Admiral, Emil Eftimov, and Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ivan Kondon.

He then delivered a keynote speech at Bulgaria’s National Defence College, where he hailed the growing defence relationship between the UK and Bulgaria, as set out through the signing of a 2018 Defence Declaration and further symbolised through the UK’s first deployment to Bulgaria as part of a NATO mission in 2022.

NATO forms the bedrock of our shared security with like-minded countries in the North Atlantic and Europe, and the UK’s £75 bn defence uplift over the next six years will ensure it remains the biggest defence spender in Europe. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

 

08 May 24. EU countries have agreed to use an estimated €3bn in profits arising from Russia’s frozen state assets to jointly buy weapons for Ukraine. The deal struck by the bloc’s 27 ambassadors on Wednesday only targets profits made by Belgium’s central securities depository Euroclear, where about €190bn of Russian central bank assets are held. Western nations immobilised Russia’s state assets abroad in 2022, in response to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The European Commission expects Euroclear to hand over about €3bn a year which will be transferred to the bloc’s funds biannually, with a first payout expected in July. The measure will apply to profits Euroclear starts accruing as of mid-February 2024. Of that, 90 per cent would be used for buying arms and military equipment for Kyiv’s forces, while the remaining 10 per cent would be used for reconstruction. That split assuages concerns by militarily neutral EU countries Austria, Malta, Cyprus and Ireland who want a share of profits to finance non-military purposes. The move, months in the making, comes after EU members including Germany, Italy and France dismissed Ukrainian demands backed by the US to confiscate about €260bn in underlying Russian state assets immobilised abroad. Berlin, Paris and Rome said such a radical step could have legal and financial repercussions. The US has separately also proposed to issue about $50bn in debt for Ukraine and repay it with expected future profits from Russian state assets. That plan would generate more cash for Kyiv, but the EU says that it is too complex and lengthy, when the priority should be to get the money to Ukraine quickly. Euroclear has made about €5bn in net profits from the Russian assets since the start of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Of that, net profits generated until mid-February this year will stay with Euroclear and act as a buffer against legal claims. Euroclear will also keep 0.3 per cent of future profits as an incentive fee, and temporarily hold back 10 per cent for financial stability reasons, which would eventually be transferred to the EU. Recommended The Big Read The clash over whether to commandeer Russia’s frozen assets Belgium, which levies a 25 per cent corporate tax, has earned about €​​1.6bn since the start of the war from Euroclear’s profits linked to Russian assets. Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said his country allocated those revenues “to Ukraine-related expenses”. This year, tax revenue from Euroclear linked to Russian assets is expected to rise to €1.7bn, of which €1bn has been earmarked for military aid to Kyiv, according to the Belgian government. Following pressure from the US and fellow EU member countries to forgo that tax income, Belgium has said it will be open to a “voluntary arrangement” with EU and G7 partners for corporate tax revenue from profits arising from Russian assets from 2025. De Croo said this should be done “in step with EU and G7 partners that holds such assets as well”, and that this could “significantly leverage and sustain our financial support for Ukraine and help them win this war.” (Source: FT.com)

 

08 May 24. Russia loses 899 soldiers a day in complete disregard for the lives of its own soldiers: UK statement to the OSCE.

UK military advisor, Nicholas Aucott, says Russia’s human wave attacks are a grotesque approach that demonstrates the depths to which Putin will go to prop up Russian elite.

Thank you, Mr Chair. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine continues to present the gravest security challenge in the history of this organisation. Having violated the principles of the OSCE, the Helsinki Final Act and the United Nations Charter, Russia continues its aggressive actions for the sole benefit of an autocratic Russian elite.

For the civilian population of Ukraine, they have been forced to endure untold hardship, misery, and death as Russia strikes civilian and critical national infrastructure with imprecise munitions. Last week a Russian airstrike targeted the city centre of Odesa, killing five people and injuring 30. Meanwhile, the relentless bombardment of Kharkiv continues, resulting in daily casualties, regular power outages and interruptions in water and heating supply.  It is our collective responsibility to remain strong in our resolve, our collective responsibility to stand up to this heinous act of aggression, to defend those against such acts of tyranny.

As Russia continues its attacks around Chasiv Yar, it does so utilising Storm-Z penal units, wasting lives in a grotesque approach that typifies the depths to which President Putin’s regime is prepared to go. Now, out of a pre-war population of 12,500, only 682 civilians remain in Chasiv Yar, with no running water or power supply for over a year.

For Russia, beyond the attempts to benefit a small elite, the impact on its own military is appalling. Throughout April 2024, the pattern of Russian casualties followed the pattern we have seen so far throughout this year with an average loss of 899 soldiers per day, bringing Russian total casualties to over 465,000. Mr Chair, not only is this an act of aggression against a sovereign nation, it also is a testament to the contempt in which Putin regards his own people and the lengths to which he is prepared to go.

Putin believes that momentum is on Russia’s side. Putin has forced Russia’s economy onto a war footing, and he continues to push on, regardless of the catastrophic cost to his own people. Putin believes he can outpace and outwait the West; however, nothing could be further from the truth.

The resolve of the United Kingdom and its partners to support Ukraine will remain steadfast. In January the Prime Minister announced an unshakeable 100 year partnership between the UK and Ukraine.  Furthermore, the British Foreign Secretary, following his recent visit to Ukraine, has announced a further package of support of £3bn per year ‘for as long as is necessary’, in addition to a £36m package in support of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, and investment in future innovations to support Ukraine’s energy transition and recovery.

Mr Chair, we must be in no doubt, if the free world were to falter and Putin to succeed, it would embolden him to use aggression elsewhere, against all our interests, and encourage other authoritarian regimes to threaten neighbours and use violence to achieve their objectives. Putin must not be allowed to subjugate Ukraine and dictate a world defined by danger, disorder, division and disinformation. As the war ploughs into its third year, we will not allow the international agenda to solidify on Kremlin terms.

The courage and resolve of the Ukrainian people and the bravery of their Armed Forces have impressed the world; they remain resilient and focused on liberating all their territory temporarily under Russian control. Ukraine has shown that with the right support it can defend itself, and the United Kingdom is, and will remain, unequivocally committed to standing steadfast by Ukraine in the face of Russia’s act of aggression. Thank you. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

 

08 May 24. European Intelligence Warns of Increased Russian Sabotage Activities. European intelligence agencies have issued warnings regarding an uptick in covert sabotage activities by Russia across the continent, as detailed in assessments shared among NATO members. The intelligence points to a concerted effort by Russian operatives to engage in bombings, arson, and infrastructure attacks—a significant escalation in their long-standing campaign of disruption and espionage in Europe

The warnings highlight that these acts of sabotage are not isolated incidents but part of a broader, more aggressive strategy orchestrated by the Kremlin. Recent incidents, such as the arrest of two German-Russian nationals in Bavaria plotting attacks on military sites, and suspected sabotage in Sweden’s railway systems, underscore the immediacy of the threat. In the Czech Republic, attempts to disrupt railway signaling systems have also been attributed to Russian agents.

Intelligence reports suggest that Russia is leveraging both direct operatives and proxies to execute these missions. The approach is characterized by the utilization of sophisticated tactics to inflict maximum disruption and gather intelligence. The aim is to test and refine these tactics in what some experts suggest are “practice runs” for more extensive operations that could potentially paralyze European responses in critical times.

The increasing visibility of these activities has prompted European intelligence to advocate for heightened vigilance and stronger countermeasures. NATO has also expressed deep concern over these developments, emphasizing the need for a unified response to what it describes as a significant intensification of malign Russian activities on Allied territories. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

 

08 May 24. Russia targets energy facilities in air attack on Ukraine, officials say. A Russian air attack on Ukraine damaged several facilities in a strike targeting energy infrastructure across the country, Ukraine’s military and energy officials said on Wednesday.

“Another massive attack on our energy industry!” Ukraine’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

Power generation and transmission facilities in the Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Vinnytsia regions were targeted, he added.

Except the Zaporizhzhia region, all the other regions are far from the frontline that goes through Ukraine’s east and southeast.

The scale of the Russian attack on Ukraine was not immediately known. There was no immediate comment from Moscow.

Ukraine’s national grid operator Ukrenergo said on Telegram that equipment at one of its facilities in central Ukraine was damaged, without providing further detail.

In the central Poltava region, an energy infrastructure facility was hit by a drone attack, sparking a fire, Poltava Regional Governor Filip Pronin wrote on Telegram.

According to preliminary information, there were no casualties.

Governors of the Vinnytsia and Zaporizhzhia regions said separately that critical civilian infrastructure facilities were damaged, without providing further detail.

All missiles targeting Kyiv were destroyed, Serhiy Popko, head of the city’s military administration, said on the Telegram messaging app. He added there was no major damage or injuries as a result of the attack.

Reuters’ witnesses in Kyiv reported hearing blasts, which sounded like air defence systems hitting air objects.

Air defence systems were also engaged in repelling the Russian attack over the Lviv region, which borders with NATO-member Poland, where several blasts took place, regional officials said.

Russia, which began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, has launched a series of attacks on Ukrainian power facilities in recent months. Moscow denies targeting civilians but says the Ukrainian energy system is a legitimate military target. (Source: Reuters)

 

07 May 24. Ukraine has said it uncovered a network of Russian agents in the country that planned to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, including two colonels who worked for the agency in charge of his security. The Ukrainian domestic intelligence service (SBU) on Tuesday said the two were tasked by Moscow with finding people in Zelenskyy’s security detail who would take the president hostage and later kill him. The agency they worked for, known as the State Protection Service, oversees security for Ukraine’s president as well as ministers and other top officials. One of the colonels, the SBU said, had purchased weapons and drones for the operation and was recorded in conversation with his handlers at the FSB, the Russian spy agency. In addition to Zelenskyy, the agents planned to kill the head of the SBU, Vasyl Malyuk, and the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, Kyrylo Budanov, as well as other high-ranking officials. The kill plan for Budanov, according to the SBU, was to target a building he was in with a rocket strike and attack any people who remained in the affected area with drones. Then the Russians planned to use a second missile strike to destroy any traces of the drones, it said. In a taped conversation published on the SBU’s website, an alleged FSB agent in Moscow tells one of the Ukrainian colonels they will receive upwards of $50,000 for the Budanov assassination. “A limited number of people knew about our special operation, and I personally monitored its progress. The terrorist attack, which was supposed to be a gift to [Vladimir] Putin before the inauguration, was actually a failure of the Russian special services,” said Malyuk. The SBU said the FSB had recruited the Ukrainian colonels before Russia’s full-scale invasion, meeting one of the colonels in January 2022 in a neighbouring country more than once. (Source: FT.com)

 

06 May 24. Electronic warfare in Ukraine has lessons for US weapons, navigation. The U.S. is gaining valuable insights about the performance of its technologies amid electronic interference as Ukrainian troops use them on the front lines, according to one official.

Washington and other governments have committed bns of dollars of security aid to Ukraine, including long-range missiles, armored vehicles and secure communication devices. The jamming and spoofing that blankets fighting in Eastern Europe offers a trial against Russian tools rarely seen in action.

Michael Monteleone, the director of the Army’s Assured Positioning, Navigation and Timing/Space Cross-Functional Team, on May 5 told reporters the conflict is a “huge learning experience for us.”

“The global community has shared a lot of our technology, our weapons systems, our command-and-control systems and others, with the Ukrainians,” he said on the sidelines of the GEOINT conference in Florida. “You’re seeing that being used in real time, and it is a source of feedback.”

Monteleone’s cross-functional team, expected to shift its focus to so-called all-domain sensing in the coming months, is tasked with improving soldier access to critical sources of situational awareness, including where they are, where they are headed and when they will arrive.

Digital harassment can render such information useless.

“Even early in the war, we learned what happened when GPS just didn’t exist, and how the Ukrainian soldiers dealt with that, and how the Russian soldiers dealt with that,” Monteleone said.

The Defense Department’s spending is increasingly motivated by potential battles with Russia in Europe or China in the Indo-Pacific. Russian electronic warfare has hamstrung Excalibur precision artillery as well as an undisclosed ground-launched version of an air-to-ground armament, according to experts.

The lessons gleaned from Ukraine’s fight are making “everybody think about the problem space,” Monteleoene said, “including where our investments truly need to be.”

The Army in recent years earmarked ms of dollars for sophisticated electronic warfare equipment as well as jam-resistant navigation gear.

The service inked a $318m deal with BAE Systems for M-code GPS cards and tapped TRX Systems to produce second-generation Dismounted Assured Positioning, Navigation and Timing Systems, which soldiers can carry in the field. That deal was worth $402m. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Defense News)

 

06 May 24. Ukraine, EU defense firms discuss setting up local production. More than 100 Ukrainian and European defense firms gathered in Brussels on Monday to discuss direct investment in Ukraine’s defense industry as well as setting up local production to help the country fight off Russia’s invasion.

Ukraine’s weapon-production capacity far exceeds its financial resources, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a speech by video at the EU-Ukraine Defence Industries Forum. The gap between what the local defense industry can produce and the funds available for weapons procurement amounts to $10bn, Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin said at the meeting.

The goal of the meeting is for concrete joint proposals from Ukrainian and European firms, said Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign policy chief. Europe has started to adjust its military-aid strategy to bolster Ukraine’s defense-industrial base, with Denmark in April allocating 200m kroner ($29m) for investment in the country’s defense industry.

“Denmark has shown the example, starting the path of directly investing in Ukrainian defense industry,” Borrell said. “If the military equipment that Ukraine needs can be rapidly produced by the Ukrainian defense industry, I say let’s buy from them. Let’s help them to produce at home and let’s provide the financial capacity to buy this production.”

Borrell said more than 140 companies from 25 European Union member states were attending the forum, while Kamyshin said 39 Ukrainian companies were present, including state-owned weapons producer Ukroboronprom.

Some EU defense companies are already investing in Ukraine, with Germany’s Rheinmetall saying in February said it would set up a joint venture to manufacture 155mm artillery ammunition in the country. That follows last year’s joint venture between Rheinmetall and Ukroboronprom to locally repair and maintain equipment supplied by allies to Ukraine.

Producing locally will save on transportation costs and reduce delays, bringing manufacturing to where it is needed, Borrell said. Once EU member state agree on using the revenue generated by frozen Russian assets, those resources will be channelled to Ukraine to help with its pressing military needs and contribute directly to its defense industry, according to the high representative.

Ukraine could become a world leader in drones and electronic warfare, according to Borrell, who said Europe’s defense industry has a lot to offer Ukraine, but can also learn from the country.

“This war, with the groundbreaking role of the 21st-century technology, like drones destroying the most advanced tanks, is revolutionizing warfare,” Borrell said. “And we have learned a lot from the Ukrainians in this regard.”

Ukraine’s defense industry has shown it is capable and price competitive, Kamyshin said in remarks before the start of the meeting. He said the country’s industry is “adjacent” to the European defense industry. “We don’t compete, but we produce those simple things that work well, proven on the battlefield.”

Expanding defense-industrial capacities in Ukraine and the EU is a political issue, Foreign Minister Kuleba said. Russia’s pace of militarization is the highest since Soviet times, and the only way to win what is a new arms race, and to deter Russia, is to show that Europe has the means to defend itself, the minister said.

The European Union, with partner and candidate countries, needs a common defense-industrial space, according to Kuleba. Such an arrangement could help overcome the lack of interchangeability in urgently needed 155mm artillery munition, for example, he added, noting how French shells can only be fired from French howitzers, and German cannons only accepting U.S. and German shells.

The minister called for long-term planning of contracts and procurement, saying “predictability is the fuel that drives the defense industries.” He said Ukraine has combat experience, technological ingenuity and rapidly expanding capabilities, but lacks funding.

“Investing in Ukrainian defense enterprises is a great way to provide Ukraine with more weapons,” Kuleba said. “Every euro invested in Ukraine’s ability to produce more weapons generates lucrative security and financial returns for European partners.”

(Source: Defense News Early Bird/Defense News)

 

03 May 24. Ukraine launches new tech accelerator to propel start-up defence technologies to the battlefield. A new defence tech initiative, the Defenсe Builder Accelerator, has launched in Ukraine. This 4-month intensive training program is designed for Ukrainian defence startups – including developers of sensors, electronic warfare and surveillance systems – to secure the first investments and transition from “garage” production to establishment of a tech company.

“Defence Builder Accelerator program aims to enable the development of technologies, tailored to the needs of Defence Forces, allowing them to meet real battlefield requirements,” said an organisation press statement. “After completing the program, startups gain access to capital and investors.

“The Defence Builder Accelerator program was crafted in collaboration with leaders of the Ukrainian tech ecosystem, including Genesis, Sigma Software Labs, and the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE). The accelerator was founded by Ivan Kaunov (CEO), an officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and Kateryna Bezsudna (COO). Prior to the accelerator, they launched their own defence startup, Buntar Aerospace, which develops software and UAVs for long-range reconnaissance missions. Buntar Aerospace recently raised USD2M from several international VCs and is working on increasing the survival rate of ISR UAVs up to tenfold using AI and Ukrainian first-hand experience on the modern battlefield.

The acceleration program is open to startups that are developing both software and/or hardware defence tech solutions: UAVs, UGVs, USVs, EW and ES, software, demining solutions, cybersecurity, avionics, sensors and others. To qualify, teams need to have the TRL-4 level of the product or higher .

“The main factors of advantage in modern warfare are smart technologies,” says Ivan Kaunov, co-founder and CEO of Defence Builder Accelerator. The combination of military experience, technological background, and business skills will allow us to create a new vertical of Ukrainian defence technologies with a global focus.”

“The accelerator is ready to connect verified investors with defence startups. This presents an exclusive opportunity to access Ukraine’s booming defence technology sector. The team is open to collaboration with angels, VCs, corporate ventures, and other investors.

“There are 30+ mentors of the program, who are the leaders of tech companies with experience in creating and scaling complex technological products. Military personnel with first-hand combat experience and a deep understanding of battlefield needs are involved in the program as advisors. Among mentors of the program are Mikhaylo Rogalsky, co-founder of Monobank; Oleksandr Solovei, co-founder at Finmap; Misha Rudominskiy, co-founder at Promin Aerospace and Himera; Daria Yaniieva, Investment Director at Sigma Software Labs and many others.”

For more information: https://defencebuilder.com/index-en.html (Source: www.unmannedairspace.info)

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