NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

May 02.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

OFFENSIVES: Russian forces are attacking on multiple axes, ramping up pressure on Ukrainian forces amid uncertainty around the strength of Ukraine’s fixed fortifications
STRIKES: Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) estimates that Russia’s current stockpile of certain long-range missiles stands at around 950
CBRN: The US State Department announced that it had determined that Russia has used the chemical weapon chloropicrin against Ukrainian forces, thus violating the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)
FORECAST: Kyiv has confirmed that it will not forcibly return military-age Ukrainian men from other countries, though wider uncertainty remains for Ukrainian expatriates
OFFENSIVES: Nazar Voloshyn, the Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortytsia Group of Forces, reported earlier on 2 May that Russian forces are currently attempting to break through the frontline in three directions. Voloshyn confirmed that Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novopavlivka (all Donetsk oblast) are currently experiencing heavy fighting and near continuous Russian assaults. A Ukrainian commander fighting along the Bakhmut front reported on 30 April that Russian attacks are currently taking the form of initial first wave Storm-Z and Storm-V convict unit assaults, which are then followed by mechanised and airborne (VDV) units. Such tactics have been used to good effect in the past, including during the assault on Bakhmut.
OFFENSIVES: Ukrainian and Russian sources have reported in recent days that elements of Russia’s 76th and/or 7th airborne (VDV) divisions are redeploying from Zaporizhzhia oblast to unspecified frontlines in the east. These units are likely some of the most combat-effective units in Ukraine at present, having successfully supported the defence of the Zaporizhzhia line during the 2023 Ukrainian counter-offensive. While this new redeployment is unconfirmed, it possibly highlights preparations for Russia’s coming summer offensive expected in June, or, more immediately, support for ongoing offensive operations in Donetsk oblast.
OFFENSIVES: As Russian forces maintain the current pressure at multiple points, further limited Ukrainian withdrawals are possible in the coming weeks, even as new injections of Western military aid steadily reach the front. Green lanes are distributing critical supplies quickly, which will begin to improve the situation for the Ukrainians. However, the extent of Ukrainian artillery shortages and other key supplies means that it will possibly take a couple of weeks for the frontline to stabilise (if it does at all) ahead of Russia’s expected summer offensive in June. In the meantime, Ukrainian fixed fall-back defences, including west of Avdiivka and around Chasiv Yar, will remain key in slowing the Russian advance, though the state of these defences remains unclear despite efforts to ramp up the construction of fortifications this year.
OFFENSIVES: Kyiv has allocated USD 960m to building a reinforced fortification network across three defensive lines stretching some 1,240 miles (2,000km), though it remains unclear whether this will contain further Russian advances. However, despite some progress building trenches and layered defences including minefields and anti-tank ‘dragon’s teeth’, there are serious questions around the strength and quality of these defences. The Associated Press cited multiple Ukrainian commanders currently fighting around Avdiivka and Bakhmut on 2 May, all of whom raised concerns over the severe limitations or non-existence of even basic trenches along certain sections of the frontline.
BAKHMUT: Russian assaults against Chasiv Yar have increased notably in recent days, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting on 30 April a higher number of attacks in the Bakhmut direction than in the Avdiivka sector. Russian forces seem to be oscillating between intensifying assaults at different sectors of the front; this pattern is likely to continue as Moscow attempts to identify and create weaknesses in the Ukrainian frontline – particularly before Western aid begins to stabilise the front for Ukrainian forces.
BAKHMUT: Significantly, Russian forces advanced south-east of Chasiv Yar on 29 April, reaching the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal for the first time. Reports indicate that Russian units have occasionally crossed the canal, but that they have not yet achieved a beachhead. Nevertheless, the canal runs underground in this area, providing Russian forces with an opportunity to reinforce and push through a forested area along the southern flank of Chasiv Yar – which we previously assessed is possibly Russia’s tactical objective. Geolocated footage from 1 May indicates that Russian forces are steadily advancing through this forested area; if they can consolidate recent advances, they will be in a stronger position to threaten Chasiv Yar from the south. Additional Russian reports have claimed that Ukrainian forces are preparing to withdraw from Klishchiivka, located around six miles (10km) south-west of Bakhmut. However, this remains unconfirmed.
BAKHMIT: Over the last 24 hours, Russian forces have also launched a major assault towards Siversk from multiple directions, though unconfirmed reports indicate that Ukrainian forces have repelled the attack. Siversk is a key settlement located at the centre of a large Ukrainian cauldron around 17 miles (27km) north of Bakhmut. Russian forces have been prioritising attacks elsewhere in recent weeks; the fact that a co-ordinated multi-directional attack took place here likely indicates wider Russian operational plans to increase pressure across larger stretches of the frontline. This likely aims to stretch Ukrainian forces to maximise the potential for a breakthrough or tactical advances at some point(s) along the front.
DONETSK: Russian forces are steadily expanding and seemingly stabilising their salient north-west of Avdiivka; this will likely facilitate further advances in the coming days. Geolocated footage from 1 May shows Russian forces have advanced south-west and west of Solovyove, located to the north-west of Avdiivka. On 2 May, a prominent milblogger claimed that Russian troops advanced south of Pokrovsk into the settlement of Netailove (to the west of Avdiivka). While such advances remain visually unconfirmed, attacks in this area indicate that the major logistics hub of Pokrovsk likely remains one of the main operational goals of Russia’s offensive push in the Avdiivka sector. Meanwhile, Russian forces did not make any confirmed gains around Avdiivka between 29 and 30 April, suggesting a possible temporary focus on the Bakhmut section, as assessed above.
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 30 April, Governor of Kharkiv oblast Oleh Synehubov stated that Russia has amassed around 20,000 troops on the oblast’s northern border and around 100,000 troops in the Kupiansk sector over the past ten months. Synehubov also noted that the Russian command has replaced highly degraded units over the past two months. However, the official stated that it is too early to assess whether the accumulation of military forces means that Russia seeks to open a new front in the short term (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 22 April 2024 for more analysis).
OSKIL-KREMINNA: We continue to assess that encircling and capturing Kharkiv remains a medium-to-long-term goal, and that Russia is unlikely to have the capability to do so in the short term. Russian offensive operations in Kharkiv are likely to pick up during the anticipated summer offensive. In the short-to-medium term, operations in the Donbas, particularly in Donetsk, will likely remain the key focus of the Russian command. In the meantime, media reports indicate that Russian forces continue to target Kharkiv with intense shelling and airstrikes, particularly with guided aerial bombs. Such frequent attacks are causing significant damage to the city’s infrastructure and likely illustrate Moscow’s determination to degrade the city’s defences ahead of a possible offensive this summer.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Meanwhile, geolocated footage from 30 April shows that Ukrainian forces retook control of positions and made limited advances east of Yampolivka, a settlement located to the west of Kreminna.
SOUTHERN: Russian forces have advanced further into central Robotyne on the Zaporizhzhia frontline; it is now likely that Russia controls most of the settlement. Geolocated footage from 29 April indicates that Russian forces now control the western sections of the town. The footage also notably showed Russian fixed-wing aircraft operating near the town, which further reflects Russia’s Aerospace Forces (VKS)’s ability to exploit the lack of air defences in the area to support ground operations. Nevertheless, heavy fighting is still taking place in the northern sections of the town.
STRIKES: On 1 May, Ukrainian air defences destroyed one Kh-59/Kh-69 missile over Mykolaiv oblast, as well as two Shahed 136/131 drones and one Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone over Odesa oblast. Governor of Odesa Oleh Kiper reported that Russian forces also launched an unspecified number of ballistic missiles against Odesa city (Odesa) on the evening of 1 May. Several explosions were reported in the city, where a postal depot was struck (killing three people). Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that the attack was aimed at the headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kulikovo Pole Square in Odesa’s city centre. On 2 May, an Orlan-10 drone was intercepted over Mykolaiv oblast.
STRIKES: On 1 May, Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) released an update on its estimates of Russia’s current stocks of certain long-range missiles. According to Kyiv, Moscow possesses 40 3M22 Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missiles, 400 3M55/3M55M Onyx/Onyx-M cruise missiles, 270 3M-14 Kalibr cruise missiles and 45 Kh-69 guided air missiles. At the start of April, Deputy GUR Chief Vadym Skibitsky estimated that Russia possesses 950 high-precision operational-strategic and strategic-level missiles with a range exceeding 217 miles (350km). Moscow typically seeks to prevent its missile stockpile from falling below 900 missiles. This possibly reflects the relative lack of high-intensity strikes in recent weeks, despite the clear opportunity presented by Ukraine’s air defence shortages. However, Russia will nevertheless possibly seek to carry out major missile strikes against Ukraine to exploit the window of opportunity before the incoming US military aid (particularly air ammunition) improves the state of Ukraine’s air defence capabilities.
STRIKES: Meanwhile, the head of the Russian occupation authority in Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, claimed that overnight on 29-30 April, Ukraine targeted Simferopol (Crimea) with US-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS). Aksyonov claimed that all the missiles were intercepted. Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces launched between 12 and 15 missiles, which were all reportedly intercepted. Similarly, the Russian MoD claimed that its air defences shot down six ATACMS missiles. However, Astra, an anti-Kremlin Russian media outlet, stated that Ukrainian missiles (possibly ATACMS) hit the facilities of a Russian air defence unit in Chornomorsk and Saky, as well as the airfield in Dzhankoi. Meanwhile, geolocated footage from 1 May indicates that four ATACMS missiles launched by Ukraine struck a Russian training ground to the south-west of Mozhnyakivka (Luhansk oblast). The attack reportedly killed 116 Russian personnel.
STRIKES: The latest reports of Ukrainian ATACMS strikes likely indicate that Kyiv is using these projectiles to target Russian military infrastructure in Russian-occupied territory. This would likely mean that Kyiv is complying with the US request not to use the projectiles against Russia-proper. Media reports from April indicate that Washington DC secretly supplied Kyiv with 100 long-range ATACMS in March; the latest USD 61bn US aid package also includes long-range ATACMS. Furthermore, the newly appointed Latvian Minister of Foreign Affairs Baiba Braže reported on 1 May that some Ukrainian allies have allowed Kyiv to use the projectiles they have provided to attack Russian territory. We assess that Washington DC will continue to deny Ukraine from using long-range ATACMS to target Russian territory, as this would raise regional escalatory risks.
STRIKES: Ukraine’s GUR disclosed that it orchestrated a drone strike against the Rosneft oil refinery in Ryazan (Ryazan oblast, Russia) overnight on 30 April-1 May. Ryazan oblast’s governor, Pavel Malkov, confirmed the drone strike without indicating the damage. Ukrainian sources posted footage showing fire blazing at the facility. This is the second time that Ukrainian forces have targeted this facility; the first strike occurred overnight on 12-13 March. The Russian MoD reported that Russian air defences intercepted six drones over Belgorod, Kursk, Ryazan and Voronezh oblasts (all Russia) early on 1 May.
STRIKES: The repeated targeting of the Ryazan oil refinery within the space of around a month underscores the failure of the Russian authorities to strengthen the protection of oil facilities frequently targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks. This likely indicates that Russia’s air defence capabilities are already stretched, and that its ability to deploy additional air defences around oil infrastructure is therefore limited. As such, Ukrainian forces will likely continue to target oil infrastructure, exploiting the deficit of aerial protection around these sites.
STRIKES: Russia’s MoD claimed on 2 May that its air defences destroyed 12 Ukrainian drones over Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk and Rostov oblasts, as well as over Krasnodar Krai (all Russia). The Kursk oblast authorities stated that power lines were damaged in a settlement in the oblast. Separately, regional officials reported that drone attacks targeted Russia’s Oryol, Smolensk and Voronezh oblasts. In Oryol and Smolensk, the local authorities reported that drones hit energy infrastructure facilities. Such attacks clearly underscore Kyiv’s efforts to replicate Moscow’s attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. However, Kyiv’s attacks do not match the intensity of Russian strikes, which are severely degrading Ukraine’s energy resilience.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

ECONOMY: Ukraine exported a record volume of products in April, surpassing even pre-invasion February 2022 figures. On 1 May, Ukraine’s economy minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, stated that Ukraine exported 13.1 million tonnes of goods last month – 1.3 million tonnes more than in March. Svyrydenko did not provide further details about the types of products exported. The minister assessed that Ukraine’s establishment of shipping corridors in the Black Sea after the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) in July 2023 particularly contributed to the growth of Ukrainian exports.
ECONOMY: The bulk of Ukrainian agricultural goods are exported via sea; since the beginning of 2024, about 12 million tonnes of 17 million tonnes of Ukrainian agricultural products were exported through seaports in Odesa. Meanwhile, almost 3 million tonnes were exported via the Danube River and just 2 million tonnes were exported by land (mostly rail) through neighbouring EU countries. The record export volumes further indicate Kyiv’s success in establishing shipping routes in the north-western Black Sea, which will most likely remain Ukraine’s first choice for ensuring export flows in the coming months.
SANCTIONS: On 1 May, the US sanctioned nearly 300 individuals and companies in Russia and third countries (including 20 firms based in China and Hong Kong) for facilitating Russia’s war effort. Washington DC targeted entities assisting Russia in circumventing and evading sanctions. The US Treasury Department stated that it imposed measures against actors aiding Russia’s military-industrial base and other sectors of Russia’s economy. While the measures target a range of actors enabling Russia’s war effort, they are unlikely to undermine Moscow’s ability to sustain the conflict significantly. Russia will highly likely continue to seek ways to evade sanctions and procure equipment.
CBRN: On 1 May, the US State Department announced that it had determined that Russia has used the chemical weapon chloropicrin against Ukrainian forces, thus violating the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). Chloropicrin, which was widely used in the First World War, is listed as a choking agent by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). The Department also stated that Russia has used riot control agents (or tear gas) as a method of warfare in Ukraine, which also violates the convention. It assessed that Russian troops possibly use such chemicals to dislodge Ukrainian forces from fortified positions and to achieve tactical battlefield gains.
CBRN: Reuters reported on 17 April claims from the Ukrainian military that Russian forces have increased their use of riot control agents on the frontline to clear trenches. Although Washington DC sanctioned entities linked to Russia’s chemical and biological weapons programmes (and companies supporting these entities), the punitive measures are highly unlikely to stop Russian forces from deploying chemical weapons. We have assessed that Russian forces have likely been using some chemical agents for a number of years; as such, the confirmation by the US has not altered the chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) escalation risks in Ukraine, though it does underscore Moscow’s readiness to use limited chemical weapons on the battlefield.

FORECAST

MOBILISATION: On 30 April, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna stated that Kyiv will not forcibly return military-age Ukrainian men from other countries. This comes after Ukraine’s foreign ministry suspended the provision of consular services to draftable men at consular services abroad until 18 May (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 24 April 2024). This is when a law tightening mobilisation is expected to take force.

In an attempt to assuage concerns, Stefanishyna stated that there will be no restrictions or forced return of Ukrainian citizens of any gender or age to Ukraine during wartime. She also stated that providing personal details to military registration and enlistment offices does not mean men will automatically be mobilised to the front. The new mobilisation law requires Ukrainian men to present their military registration documents to receive consular services, such as renewing passports. According to Stefanishyna, this measure is needed so that the authorities can determine mobilisation potential. Notably, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s MoD stated in late April that the issuing of summons abroad is ‘quite unrealistic’. Nevertheless, such comments are unlikely to alleviate concerns fully among draftable Ukrainian men, who will likely feel that they are still at risk of being deployed to fight in the coming months.

Polish media reported on 30 April that Warsaw approved draft amendments to legislation concerning Ukrainian refugees that extends their protection status until 30 September 2025. If the Polish parliament adopts the amendments, they will enter force on 1 July. Poland was one of the most popular destinations for Ukrainians seeking refuge in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion; Poland hosts roughly 1 million Ukrainian refugees. The development comes after Poland’s defence minister stated that Warsaw is ready to aid Kyiv in returning its military-age male citizens to aid the war effort. Nevertheless, the legislative amendments make it harder to determine the extent to which Poland will aid Ukraine in encouraging potential manpower to return to Ukraine (and how).

Differing policies elsewhere in Europe will almost certainly continue to fuel uncertainty among draft-age Ukrainian men. Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė stated on 29 April that Vilnius will possibly take steps to help Kyiv in getting Ukrainian men to return to their home country, but emphasised the need to consult with the EU as well. Šimonytė suggested that Lithuania could look at whether a person has performed their mobilisation duties or whether they are exempt when the authorities consider whether to extend their temporary residence permits. Meanwhile, Estonia stated that it will not deport Ukrainian men with expired passports. Ultimately, the issue of returning Ukrainian men will highly likely remain controversial for certain European governments, meaning that policies on the matter will vary.

Apr. 29.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

OFFENSIVES: Ukrainian forces deny claims that M1A1 Abrams tanks have been withdrawn from the frontline, despite threats from Russian drones
STRIKES: Russian forces have stepped up long-range strikes against Ukrainian railway infrastructure close to the frontline, though it remains unclear whether Russia will expand the campaign to hit railheads in central and western Ukraine
SUPPLY CHAINS: Polish farmers have stopped their blockade of all checkpoints along the Poland-Ukraine border, easing supply chain bottlenecks in the coming weeks
FORECAST: Ukrainian Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed that Ukrainian forces have conducted limited withdrawals to the west of Avdiivka, reflecting the deteriorating battlefield conditions as Ukraine waits for Western aid to arrive
OFFENSIVES: On 26 April, the Associated Press (AP) claimed that Ukraine has reportedly withdrawn US-supplied M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks from the frontline due to their vulnerability to Russian drones. The AP cited two unnamed US military officials, though Ukraine’s 47th Separate Mechanised Brigade claimed on 27 April that this is incorrect (without providing further clarification as to the disposition of its tank forces). While we cannot confirm whether the Abrams have been withdrawn, US officials cited by the AP stated that the proliferation of drones has turned the battlefield ‘almost transparent’, meaning enemy forces (on both sides) can readily identify any armoured vehicles relatively quickly. Russian forces have destroyed at least five of the 31 M1A1 Abrams tanks supplied by the US. Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to field large numbers of tanks to support offensive and defensive operations, even though they are vulnerable to drones. However, all armoured vehicles and systems (not just tanks) are vulnerable to drones.
BAKHMUT: Ukrainian sources and officers on the frontline have reported a relative reduction in the tempo of Russian offensive operations around Chasiv Yar over the last week, as evidenced by a lack of notable Russian advances. While guided glide bomb attacks will likely continue to degrade Ukrainian defences around the town, the relative slowdown in operations likely reflects Russia’s current operational focus to the west of Avdiivka (Donetsk oblast). Russian forces are typically unable or unwilling to conduct two major offensive efforts simultaneously; the slowdown around Chasiv Yar possibly points to a reallocation of resources further south.
BAKHMUT: Nevertheless, Ukrainian milblogger Kostyanyn Mashovets assesses that Russian commanders believe that conducting further direct assaults against Chasiv Yar will be too risky without securing the town’s southern flank. Ukrainian forces currently hold positions directly south of Russia’s burgeoning thrust into Chasiv Yar to the west of Ivanivske and Klishchiivka. Nazar Voloshyn, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortytsia Group of Forces, stated on 26 April that Russian forces are currently attacking Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka in a bid to bypass Chasiv Yar and establish the conditions to encircle the settlement.
DONETSK: On 28 April, Ukrainian Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed that Ukrainian forces have conducted limited withdrawals given the rapidly deteriorating situation along the Donetsk frontline. Syrski noted that Russian forces are actively attacking sectors where they are able to make tactical gains. Ukrainian forces have subsequently withdrawn from Berdychi (located to the north-west of Avdiivka) and Semenivka (located to the west of Avdiivka) to positions further west in order to safeguard Ukrainian military personnel. On 29 April, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) stated that Russian troops took control of Semenivka, though this has not yet been confirmed. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces also reportedly withdrew from Novomykhailivka, located to the south-west of Donetsk city. Geolocated footage from 27 April also shows Russian advances in central Krasnohorivka, located three miles (5km) north of Avdiivka. See FORECAST for further analysis.
KHERSON: On 28 April, Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces have advanced along the Kherson axis and have retaken control of Nestryha Island in the Dnieper River delta. The island is located to the south-west of Kherson city. Ukrainian Southern Defence Forces Spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk stated that the seizure of the island will improve Ukrainian ‘counter-subversive measures’ in the area, likely referring to Ukraine’s capability to intercept and deter Russian raids across the river.
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Geolocated footage posted on 28 April indicates Russian advances in Kylivka and to the south of Novoslivkse; both settlements are located to the north-west of Svatove. On 28 April, Syrski explained that Russian forces have focused their main operational efforts near Berestove and Stelmakhivka in the Kupiansk direction (to the north-west of Svatove).
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: Early on 26 April, Ukrainian forces destroyed two reconnaissance drones over Kherson and Odesa oblasts.
STRIKES: Overnight on 26-27 April, Russia launched a medium-scale strike of 34 missiles. The strike included nine Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, nine Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles, two S-300 missiles, two Iskandr-K cruise missiles, eight Kalibr cruise missiles and four Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles. Ukrainian air defences reportedly intercepted 21 missiles: six Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, eight Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles, six Kalibr cruise missiles and one Iskandr-K cruise missile. Later on 27 April, Ukrainian forces shot down three reconnaissance drones over Odesa and another reconnaissance drone over Kherson.
STRIKES: The attack was notable given that it was the first strike package not to include Shahed drones since late December 2023 and also included sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command confirmed that the strike was only the third time that Kalibr missiles had been employed in over six months, which ultimately reflects the ability of Ukraine’s maritime counter-offensive in the Black Sea to threaten Russia’s Kalibr-capable surface warships. The fact that Kalibr strikes have (possibly) resumed likely indicates that Russia’s Novorossiysk port has been successfully upgraded to load Kalibr missiles onto Kilo-class submarines, if not Kalibr-capable corvettes and frigates. Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) estimates that Russia has accumulated at least 260 Kalibr missiles in recent months, and that it plans to produce 30 more in April. Given the likely (significant) depletion of Russian Kh-101 cruise missile stocks, an uptick in sea-launched Kalibr strikes is possible in the coming weeks.
STRIKES: The attack on 26-27 April targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure, underscoring Moscow’s continued efforts to undermine Ukraine’s long-term energy security. Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, reported that the attack damaged four thermal power plants (TPP). Ukraine’s energy minister, Herman Haluschenko, reported that energy infrastructure was damaged in Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv oblasts. The local authorities stated that two critical energy infrastructure facilities in Lviv were also struck.
STRIKES: Early on 28 April, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with four Shahed-136/131 drones, five unidentified drones and one S-300 missile. Ukrainian air defences intercepted the four Shahed drones over Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv and Vinnytsia oblasts; one unidentified drone was shot down over Mykolaiv oblast.
STRIKES: Russian forces have stepped up long-range strikes against Ukrainian railway infrastructure close to the frontline, though it remains unclear whether Russia will expand this campaign to hit railheads in central and western Ukraine. On 25 April a Russian Iskandr-M missile struck a logistics and railway connection site in Smila (Cherkasy oblast); a Russian Su-57 also launched an unspecified missile to strike a railway station in Balaklia (Kharkiv oblast). Meanwhile, on 27 April, Ukrainian forces struck a railway bridge in Chernihivka (occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast); this was likely a retaliatory attack. Russian forces have highly likely stepped up attacks against Ukrainian railway infrastructure in a bid to undermine Ukrainian logistics and Kyiv’s ability to distribute Western aid to the frontline rapidly. At present, strikes remain limited to eastern Ukraine, though it remains possible that Russian forces will attempt to strike railheads and major logistics junctions in western Ukraine in the coming weeks before Western aid strengthens Ukraine’s air defence network.
STRIKES: Meanwhile, the Russian MoD reported that its forces intercepted 66 drones targeting Russia’s Krasnodar Krai and Russian-annexed Crimea on 26-27 April. Russia’s Regional Krasnodar authorities announceded that drones damaged oil refineries in Slavyansk-on-Kuban and the village of Ilsky, as well as a military airfield in the village of Kushchevskaya. The Russian MoD reported that 17 Ukrainian drones were detected over Belgorod, Bryansk, Kaluga and Kursk oblasts early on 28 April.
STRIKES: On 25 April, Ilya Yevlash (a spokesperson for Ukraine’s air force) claimed that Russian forces used an Su-57 aircraft to fire a Kh-59/Kh-69 cruise missile against Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk oblast, Ukraine). The Su-57 is Russia’s most advanced fighter jet, and, as such, Moscow typically refrains from deploying the aircraft close to Ukrainian air defences along the frontline (likely out of fear of losing an aircraft). The deployment of the Su-57 for the strike against Kryvyi Rih likely reflects Moscow’s ability and willingness to exploit Ukrainian air defence shortages until Western aid begins to arrive.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

SUPPLY CHAINS: Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service (DPSU) reported earlier on 29 April that Polish farmers have stopped their blockade of all checkpoints along the Poland-Ukraine border. The DPSU reported that Polish protesters ceased their blockade of the Hrebenne–Rava-Ruska checkpoint after 1000hrs (local time) but noted that trucks transporting grain to Poland would still not be allowed passage through this zone. However, vehicles carrying grain onwards to other countries will be able to use this checkpoint. The development will highly likely ease supply chain flows into and out of Ukraine; it will also defuse moderately-elevated regional tensions between Kyiv and Warsaw.
NEGOTIATIONS: On 28 April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that most of the international community can push Russia to make peace and must do so, though an end to the war remains highly unlikely in the near term. Zelensky claimed that such efforts can begin in June, when Switzerland will host a Ukraine peace summit (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 11 April 2024). He noted that Kyiv is working to make the event truly global in nature, adding that all continents will be represented. Kyiv will almost certainly use the event to rally as many countries as possible behind its envisioned terms for peace. However, Moscow’s efforts to strengthen ties with the Global South will possibly undermine Ukrainian attempts to unite states behind its vision for peace both in the coming weeks and during negotiations to end the war.
MOBILISATION: Reports emerged on 28 April that the Russian authorities will begin issuing electronic summonses to conscripts and enforcing restrictions on 1 November after the government published a resolution on the matter. An electronic summons will be considered served seven days after it is posted on Russia’s State Services portal; a conscript will be automatically blocked from leaving Russia after the summons is delivered. If a person fails to appear at the military registration and enlistment office within 20 days, they will be prohibited from obtaining a foreign passport, registering as an individual entrepreneur or becoming self-employed. As such, the resolution almost certainly seeks to crack down against draft dodgers and to force compliance with summonses by including punishments for evasion.
AID: On 28 April, Kazakhstan’s state-owned enterprise Kazspetsexport denied reports that the US had purchased decommissioned Soviet-era aircraft with the aim of sending them to Ukraine. It stated that foreign companies were not allowed to bid. The Kyiv Post earlier reported that the US bought 81 aircraft through intermediaries in October 2023 after Kazakhstan auctioned 117 fighter and bomber aircraft, including MiG-31 interceptors, MiG-27 fighter-bomber aircraft and MiG-29 fighter jets.
AID: However, the offer for sale stated that the planes were unusable and that modernisation efforts were not economically practical. Their usefulness for spare parts was also described as limited. It remains unlikely that Kazakhstan would provide even indirect military assistance to Kyiv for the foreseeable future to avoid spoiling relations with Russia. Nevertheless, the reports will likely raise concerns about increasing Western influence in Kazakhstan (and possibly Central Asia more broadly) among Russian officials. In the meantime, we cannot confirm who has purchased the 81 aircraft, though their potential transfer to Ukraine would possibly augment Ukraine’s limited air capabilities. Even if the aircraft are in extremely poor condition, they could still be cannibalised for spare parts, or even used as decoys at Ukrainian airfields to protect operational aerial assets.
AID: Reports emerged on 26 April that the Belgian government will speed up the delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, though specific timelines remain uncertain. Belgian Defence Minister Ludivine Dedonder stated the transfer should happen as ‘quickly as possible’ and that Brussels is aiming to deliver the planes by the end of the year, rather than from 2025. Separately, Spanish Defence Minister Margarita Robles stated on 26 April that Madrid will send a ‘set’ of Patriot anti-aircraft interceptor missiles to Kyiv. Robles announced that the equipment will arrive at an unspecified ‘logistics base’ in the coming days; it is uncertain how many missiles Spain has transferred to Ukraine.

FORECAST

OFFENSIVES: The confirmed Ukrainian withdrawals from areas west of Avdiivka this week reflect growing pressure on Ukrainian defences amid acute personnel and materiel shortages. Russian forces are exploiting a spearhead to the north-west of Avdiivka which has successfully penetrated Ukrainian defensive positions near Ocheretyne. They are highly likely to attempt to reinforce this area before Western aid begins to reach the battlefield in significant quantities.

Nazar Voloshyn, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortytsia Group of Forces, reported on 27 April that Russian forces have committed additional reserves from the 55th Motorised Rifle Brigade to support assaults near the Novobakhmutivka-Ocheretyne line. The Ukrainian Centre for Defence Strategies meanwhile reported on 26 April that Russian forces have also committed two motorised rifle brigades and one motorised rifle regiment to the area. As such, Russian forces currently enjoy a three-to-one advantage over Ukraine in this direction, on top of an already significant artillery advantage (which is at least five-to-one).

In response, Ukrainian Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has confirmed that reconstituted elements of various brigades that were regrouping have been deployed to stabilise the situation in the Avdiivka sector. While such deployments will likely aim to slow and contain Russian advances, Russian troops will likely continue to make tactical gains in the Avdiivka sector. This will possibly prompt Ukrainian commanders to conduct further withdrawals to more defensible positions further west.

As pressure on Ukrainian forces mounts, the commander of Ukraine’s 93rd Mechanised Brigade, Pavlo Palisa, stated on 25 April that manpower shortages are ‘much more important than ammunition’ at present. He stated that every Ukrainian soldier is currently having to perform the duties of three to four soldiers, with Russian forces outnumbering Ukrainians by about five-to-seven times in the Bakhmut direction alone. Palisa stated that Russian forces are currently trying to exploit this numerical advantage by conducting attacks that lead to the loss of Ukrainian personnel and equipment. This reinforces our wider assessment in recent months that the relatively limited Russian advances do not necessarily reflect the state of the Ukrainian frontline, which is likely under significantly more pressure than it appears. As US military aid begins to trickle to the front and to offset Ukraine’s artillery disadvantage in the coming weeks, Ukraine’s personnel shortages will present a much more significant and longer-term disadvantage which aid transfers will only go so far to mitigate.

Looking ahead, Russia’s recent tactical gains and efforts to reinforce the salient to the north-west of Avdiivka mean the Russian command will possibly pursue one of two operational objectives. Firstly, Russian troops will possibly intensify operations to the west of Ocheretyne in a bid to set conditions for an eventual advance towards the major logistics hub of Pokrovsk, which Ukrainian intelligence indicates is the most likely operational objective for Russian forces in the Avdiivka sector. Alternaitvely, Russian forces will possibly leverage recent advances to push north in order to reinforce and support Russia’s offensive push around Chasiv Yar. Ultimately, we assess that the prospect of taking Pokrovsk remains a much more ambitious objective, given that the hub is located around 20 miles (32km) west of the frontline. (Source: Sibylline)

06 May 4. Setback for Ukraine. Sources close to BATTLESPACE suggest that the Russians destroyed a train load of key US equipment two weeks ago, causing a setback to Ukraine’s aspirations to defend its Eastern flank. The same source suggests that Ukraine is considering an increased tempo of assaults on Crimea including the key bridge.

04 May 24. Russia says it shot down four U.S.-made long range missiles over Crimea. The Russian defence ministry said on Saturday its air defence forces shot down four U.S.-produced long-range missiles over the Crimea peninsular, weapons known as Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) that Washington has shipped to Ukraine in recent weeks.

The ministry said later that Russian aircraft and air defence systems had downed a total of 15 ATACMS in the past week.

On Tuesday, Russian officials said Ukraine had attacked Crimea with ATACMS in an attempt to pierce Russian air defences of the annexed peninsula but that six had been shot down.

A U.S. official said in Washington last month that the United States secretly shipped long-range missiles to Ukraine in recent weeks.

The ATACMS missiles, with a range up to 300 km (190 miles)were used for the first time in the early hours of April 17, launched against a Russian airfield in Crimea that was about 165 km (103 miles) from the Ukrainian front lines, the official said.

The Pentagon initially opposed the long-range missile deployment, concerned that taking the missiles from the American stockpile would hurt U.S. military readiness.

There were also concerns that Ukraine would use them to attack targets deep inside Russia, a step which could lead to an escalation of the war towards a direct confrontation between Russia and the United States.

Separately on Saturday, the Russian defence ministry said that in the last week its forces had destroyed a military train carrying equipment and arms produced in the West and supplied to Ukraine by NATO.

The scale of the damage, exact date and location were not disclosed.

Reuters is not immediately able to corroborate battlefield accounts from either side.

On Thursday, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron promised 3bn pounds ($3.7bn) of annual military aid for Ukraine for “as long as it takes”, adding that London had no objection to its weapons being used inside Russia, drawing a strong rebuke from Moscow. (Source: Reuters)

06 May 24. Italy calls for Ukraine truce, peace talks with Putin – newspaper. Italy’s Defence Minister said on Monday economic sanctions against Russia had failed and called on the West to try harder to negotiate a diplomatic solution with President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. Guido Crosetto told daily Il Messaggero that the West had wrongly believed its sanctions could stop Russia’s aggression, but it had overestimated its economic influence in the world.

“Instead … the only way to resolve this crisis is to involve everyone, first (to obtain) a truce and then peace,” Crosetto said.

In answer to the interviewer’s objection that Putin had shown no willingness to negotiate, Crosetto replied: “that is a good reason for us to try harder. We mustn’t give up any possible path of diplomacy, however narrow.”

However, Crosetto defended Italy’s decision to continue to send arms to Ukraine, saying this was aimed at obtaining “the time and the conditions to achieve a truce and peace.”

Italy this year holds the rotating presidency of the Group of Seven major democracies.

In other remarks, Crosetto said that if Russian troops were to occupy Kyiv, it would “inevitably lead to a clash with other nations, which would not accept Russian tanks on their borders.”

The Italian minister also said that Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russia last summer had been a mistake given Russia’s military superiority.

Crosetto said he had personally warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that it was doomed to failure, “but I wasn’t listened to.” (Source: Reuters)

06 May 24. Ukraine will look to mount a new counteroffensive in 2025 after receiving a $61bn infusion of US military aid to help it stop Russia from making additional gains this year, Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser said. Speaking at the FT Weekend Festival in Washington on Saturday, Sullivan said that he still expects “Russian advances in the coming period” on the battlefield, despite the new US funding package approved last month, because “you can’t instantly flip the switch”. But he said that with the new aid from Washington, Kyiv would have the capacity to “hold the line” and “to ensure Ukraine withstands the Russian assault” over the course of 2024. And pointing to the scenario for the war next year, Sullivan said Ukraine intended to “to move forward to recapture the territory that the Russians have taken from them”. His comments about a potential counteroffensive by Ukraine represent the White House’s clearest articulation of how it views the conflict evolving if president Joe Biden wins re-election in November. Any new offensive in 2025 by Ukraine would be dependent on more funding from Congress, and approval by the White House. But Donald Trump, the former president and presumptive Republican nominee, has been sceptical of Ukraine aid and has vowed to try to end the conflict quickly and seek a negotiated settlement. Ukrainian officials have expressed hope that the country’s armed forces may be able to turn the tide next year. In an address to Ukrainians to mark the third Orthodox Easter since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked the soldiers on Ukraine’s frontline and said Russia had broken “all the [bible] commandments, demanded our home, came to kill us”.

“God has a chevron with the Ukrainian flag on his shoulder [and] with such an ally, life will definitely win over death,” he said on Sunday. Residents of Kyiv lined the cities’ churches to receive Easter blessings, as fighting continued in the southern and eastern front lines and Russia continued to target key infrastructure with missile and drone barrages. Attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have caused $1bn in damages since March 22, energy minister German Galushchenko said during an interview on national television on Sunday. Delays to the US, mostly military, aid package compounded by Ukraine’s existing manpower shortages has weakened Ukraine’s ability to hold the line. Since February, Russia has used the strategic advantage it gained after capturing the Donetsk town of Avdiivka to push into more than half a dozen villages in the region. Russia’s defence ministry claimed on Sunday that its forces had taken Ocheretyne, a village in Donetsk. While Ukraine has said it is preparing for a renewed counteroffensive, its officials have also said that May could be one of its toughest months of the war while it waits for US-supplied weapons to reach the frontline. Speaking to Germany’s Bild last month, Zelenskyy said there is a plan for another counteroffensive but that it is contingent on more weapons, including from the US. But while much-needed supplies and weapons are on their way to the front lines after the US aid was approved last month, resolving Ukraine’s personnel shortages is crucial to its chances against Russia. Many Ukrainian men have been unwilling to join the mobilisation drive which began almost a year ago, citing fear of poor commanders and a lack of weaponry. (Source: FT.com)

03 May 24. Ukraine peace talks alternative to inevitable battlefield defeat, says senior general. Both sides now strive for ‘most favourable position’ ahead of possible negotiations. Ukraine is preparing for peace talks with Russia as there is “no way to win on the battlefield alone”, Kyiv’s deputy spy chief has said.

Maj Gen Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence agency, said both sides were currently vying for “the most favourable position” ahead of possible negotiations in 2025.

As with virtually all wars, negotiations will likely be the final stage of the conflict, he told the Economist.

The prospect of a peace deal with Russia has re-emerged as Ukraine’s forces – running low on manpower and ammunition – suffer setback after setback on the battlefield.

According to the Economist, Maj Gen Skibitsky said he did not see a way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone. If Ukraine was able to push Russian forces back to the border, it is unlikely to end the war, adding that such wars “can only end with treaties”.

Maj Gen Skibitsky predicted that peace talks could happen in late 2025, as he expects Russian arms production to plateau early the following year due to a shortage of engineers and supplies.

So far, Putin has signalled no intention to attend any peace talks with

Russian counter-offensives in the northwestern regions of Kharkiv and Sumy are also anticipated, he said.

Ukraine and its Western partners are racing to distribute weapons into the hands of Kyiv’s soldiers in the coming weeks in order to prevent Russia from seizing more territory.

Maj Gen Skibitsky said Russia was trying to exploit its current advantage in weapons and manpower and is planning a major offensive this summer.

“Our problem is very simple: We have no weapons,” he said.

He went on to paint a somewhat gloomy picture of Ukraine’s battlefield prospects, with particular concern for Chasiv Yar, a town occupying high-ground near Bakhmut, which Russia could soon capture.

Seizing Chasiv Yar would allow Russian forces to advance through other towns and cities in the Donetsk region.

He said it was probably a matter of time until the fall of Chasiv Yar, “not today or tomorrow, of course, but all depending on our reserves and supplies”.

Maj Gen Skibitsky warned that Russia’s army is no longer the disorganised rabble that Ukraine repelled from some regions with such success in the early stages of the war.

Now, it is a “single body, with a clear plan, and under a single command”, he said. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

02 May 24. NATO Raises Alarm Over Russian Hybrid Warfare Activities in Alliance Territories. NATO has formally accused Russia of conducting hybrid warfare within its member territories, citing a series of espionage, sabotage, and other malign activities. Over recent months, individuals allegedly acting on behalf of Russia have been investigated or arrested in Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czechia, and the United Kingdom. These activities range from military sabotage to attempts at political assassination, including a reported plot against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. A statement released by NATO highlighted an “intensifying campaign” of Russian actions across the Euro-Atlantic area, employing tactics such as cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and the use of proxies to carry out sabotage and acts of violence. In response to these threats, NATO has pledged to enhance its counter-hybrid capabilities. The alliance recently conducted its largest cyber defense exercise, Locked Shields, which included participation from Ukraine, aiming to bolster readiness against potential Russian cyber activities. High-level assessments from NATO leaders, including remarks from Polish President Andrzej Duda and Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen, suggest a growing concern over possible direct military confrontations with Russia in the near future. NATO’s collective response involves reinforcing its defensive and offensive cyber capabilities, improving intelligence-sharing among member states, and maintaining strong diplomatic and military support for Ukraine. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

03 May 24. Statement by the North Atlantic Council concerning malicious cyber activities against Germany and Czechia. We stand in solidarity with Germany following the malicious cyber campaign against a political party, in this case the Social Democratic Party of Germany, and with Czechia following the malicious cyber activities against its institutions.

Allies recognize that Germany and Czechia have attributed the responsibility of the malicious cyber activities in their respective countries to the threat actor APT28 sponsored by the Russian Federation, specifically the Russian General Staff Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU). Allies also note with concern that the same threat actor targeted other national governmental entities, critical infrastructure operators and other entities across the Alliance, including in Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Sweden.

We strongly condemn malicious cyber activities intended to undermine our democratic institutions, national security and free society.

The malicious cyber activities targeting Germany and Czechia underscore that cyberspace is contested at all times. Cyber threat actors persistently seek to destabilize the Alliance.

We remain committed to countering the substantial, continuous and increasing cyber threat, including to our democratic systems and our critical infrastructure. We are determined to employ the necessary capabilities in order to deter, defend against and counter the full spectrum of cyber threats to support each other, including by considering coordinated responses.

We promote a free, open, peaceful and secure cyberspace. We call on all States, including Russia, to respect their international obligations and commitments to uphold international law and act within the framework for responsible state behavior in cyberspace as affirmed by all members of the United Nations. (Source: NATO)

02 May 24. Ukraine searching for counter commercial, FPV drone solutions. The Ukrainian government has announced an official search for counter commercial and first-person view drone solutions.

Government platform, Brave1, announced the development search to bring together innovative companies with ideas and developments that can be used in the defence of Ukraine.

Solutions and developers are being sought for counter FPV drone detection, physical destruction, active protection, influencing control protocols of open-source radio control and non-standard frequencies and firmware.

Solutions are also being sought for the detection of Chinese DJI and Autel drones, physical destruction of commercial drones, and mission disruption of DJI and Autel control protocols including firmware.

“Commercial and FPV drones have fundamentally changed approaches to modern warfare,” according to a statement from the Ukrainian organisers.

“Not only are we using these affordable solutions en masse to destroy multi-million dollar equipment, but so is the enemy. We need effective protection and countermeasures.

“(We can) assemble ready-made teams and individual developers to create effective counter-FPV and commercial drone solutions to repel enemy attacks.

“We are strengthening Ukraine’s technological capabilities together.”

FPV and commercial drones have already been used extensively in the conflict between Ukrainian and Russian forces in kamikaze attack and aerial reconnaissance roles.

First-person view drones, utilising a radio-controlled vehicle piloted from the driver or pilot’s viewpoint, have been used to direct attached guided explosive munitions to targets of opportunity such as light armoured vehicles, structures, and personnel.

Earlier this year in April, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence also encouraged domestic defence manufacturers to expand their business and foreign companies to localise their production in the European country.

“The Ministry of Defence must provide our troops with high-quality means of personal protection on time and in full. For that purpose, the Ministry’s Procurement Policy Department is working on improving procurement rules, which should lead to increased competition among suppliers of the Armed Forces,” according to MOD Procurement Policy Department head Hlib Kanievskyi.

“The Ministry of Defence is the largest investor in Ukraine in the defence-industrial complex. The ministry’s procurement agencies purchase non-lethal products and weapons worth tens of billions of hryvnias (national currency of Ukraine).

“Now is a chance for domestic manufacturers to expand their business and for foreign companies to localise their production in Ukraine.”

Earlier this year, the Australian government announced that more than 11 companies had signed contracts to provide a prototype of a drone or uncrewed aerial system for the Defence Sovereign UAS Challenge.

Aerial drones developed by Australian companies would be showcased as part of a federal government initiative aimed at supporting innovation and delivering capabilities for the Australian Defence Force.

Drones would be assessed on their ability for rapid production at scale and potential use by Defence and the Commonwealth. (Source: Defence Connect)

03 May 24. HENSOLDT delivers further high-performance radars to Ukraine. More than 50 TRML-4D air defence radars already under contract . Sensor specialist HENSOLDT is supplying six more of its high-performance TRML-4D radars to Ukraine to strengthen the country’s air defence. As part of a comprehensive order package worth over 100 million euros, the six radars will be delivered later this year. This means that HENSOLDT now has a total of more than 50 air defence radars of this type under contract for a whole range of customers.

HENSOLDT CEO Oliver Dörre, said: ‘Our radars are urgently needed by the Ukrainian air defence and we are proud to be able to deliver all the systems this year. The feedback from our customers confirms how important the rapid availability of the radars is for the protection of their citizens.’

The TRML-4D is based on the latest AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar technology. It ensures the rapid detection and tracking of around 1,500 targets within a radius of up to 250 kilometres. It is capable of quickly and reliably detecting, tracking and classifying all types of aerial targets – cruise missiles, drones and aeroplanes as well as helicopters.

HENSOLDT has decades of experience with radar systems for air defence and is actively driving the further development of key technologies in this field. In addition to the TRML-4D high-performance radar, the company’s portfolio includes the SPEXER short-range radar, the Twinvis passive radar and radars for securing ship and air traffic. Both the TRML-4D and the SPEXER are part of the German Armed Forces’ NNbS air defence system for close and short-range protection, which was commissioned in January. HENSOLDT also supplies radars for the German Navy’s frigates and corvettes, for airspace surveillance and for approach control at Bundeswehr airfields.

02 May 24. Cameron, in Kyiv, promises Ukraine aid for ‘as long as it takes.’ British Foreign Secretary David Cameron promised £3bn ($3.74bn) of annual military aid for Ukraine for “as long as it takes” on Thursday, adding that London had no objection to the weapons being used inside Russia.

“We will give three billion pounds every year for as long as is necessary. We’ve just really emptied all we can in terms of giving equipment,” he told Reuters in an interview on a visit to in Kyiv, adding that the aid package was the largest from the UK so far.

“Some of that (equipment) is actually arriving in Ukraine today, while I’m here,” he said.

Cameron said Ukraine had a right to use the weapons provided by London to strike targets inside Russia, and that it was up to Kyiv whether to do so.

“Ukraine has that right. Just as Russia is striking inside Ukraine, you can quite understand why Ukraine feels the need to make sure it’s defending itself,” Cameron told Reuters outside St. Michael’s Cathedral.

Cameron, who led the UK from 2010 and 2016 as prime minister and only returned to frontline politics several months ago, met Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on his second visit to Kyiv as foreign secretary.

Britain’s top diplomat celebrated the release of a long-delayed $60bn aid package by the U.S. Congress.

“It’s absolutely crucial, not just in terms of the weapons it will bring, but also the boost to morale that it will bring to people here in Ukraine.”

However, Cameron did not answer directly when asked how he thought the possible re-election of Republican frontrunner Donald Trump to the White House could affect U.S. support for Ukraine.

Trump and hardline Republicans in Congress oppose further aid to Ukraine, with the possible exception of a loan.

“It’s not for us to decide who the Americans choose as their president – we will work with whoever that is,” Cameron said, adding that the strategy for Ukraine’s allies ought to be to ensure Ukraine is on the front foot by the time of the U.S. elections in November.

(Source: Reuters)

01 May 24. Russians throng to display of Western ‘trophy’ tanks captured in Ukraine. Western tanks and military hardware captured by Russian forces in Ukraine went on display in Moscow on Wednesday at an exhibition the Russian military said showed Western help would not stop it winning the war.

Long queues of people formed on what was a sunny May Day public holiday at the entrance to the exhibition, entitled “Trophies of the Russian Army,” which is being held outside a museum celebrating the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in 1945.

“History is repeating itself,” the Russian Defence Ministry said in a statement, adding that the Soviet Union had in 1943 also put on a display of captured tanks and hardware, in this case from the German army.

“Strength is in the truth. It’s always been that way. In 1943 and today. These war trophies reflect our strength. The more of them there are, the stronger we are,” the ministry stated, predicting a Russian victory in what it officially calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

“No Western military equipment will change the situation on the battlefield,” the statement added.

According to Western and Ukrainian critics, much of Russia’s military hardware is old or outdated, and Russian battlefield gains have resulted from sheer force of numbers and high casualties. Both sides keep the number of dead and injured a secret but are known to have suffered heavy losses.

The Moscow display, which includes U.S., German and French tanks supplied to Ukraine, came days after the U.S. approved a $61 bn aid package for Kyiv and after Russia made some swift but incremental territorial gains in eastern Ukraine at a time when Kyiv’s forces say they lack ammo and manpower.

Ukraine, whose President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says it will eventually push Russian forces from its soil, held a similar exhibition along Kyiv’s central boulevard last summer featuring burnt-out husks of Russian tanks and fighting vehicles.

Russia, says the International Institute for Strategic Studies, has itself lost over 3,000 tanks in Ukraine amounting to its entire pre-war active inventory, but has enough lower-quality armoured vehicles in storage for years of replacement and says it is now ramping up production of new tanks.

In addition to tanks, British and Australian armoured vehicles seized in Ukraine are on display in Moscow along with military hardware made in Turkey, Sweden, Austria, Finland, South Africa and the Czech Republic.

State TV’s Channel One said the star of the show was a captured American M1 Abrams battle tank, which it said had been taken out by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine using a guided rocket and kamikaze drones.

Clambering over the Abrams holding his microphone, a state TV correspondent told Russians that the tank had been billed in the United States as an indestructible “wonder weapon”.

“But that was all nonsense – look at this – all of its reputation has been destroyed,” he said. (Source: Reuters)

01 May 24. Ukraine army headquarters ‘attacked by Russian missiles.’ Russian forces have attacked the command headquarters of the Ukrainian army’s southern grouping in Odesa, the Kremlin has said.

The attack was carried out using Russian air force missiles and artillery, according to Moscow’s defence ministry.

“The headquarters of the operational command of the southern grouping of the armed forces of Ukraine was struck by operational and tactical aviation, missile forces and artillery,” said the ministry.

It gave no further details about the attack on the port city facility, but said that Russian forces were fortifying their defence across the entire front line.

Kyiv’s southern military command said administrative and residential buildings, as well as medical and educational institutions, were also damaged in the strike.

Odesa, and in particular its port, has been a frequent target by Russian forces throughout the war.

It comes as Russia ordered more weapons to Ukraine as its generals hope to break through Ukraine’s frontlines.

“To maintain the required pace of the offensive… it is necessary to increase the volume and quality of weapons and military equipment supplied to the troops, primarily weapons,” Sergei Shoigu, the defence minister, said. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

01 May 24. Russia rushes weapons to front lines to beat US arms deliveries. Ukraine, which is badly outgunned on the front lines, is believed to have stepped up its use of artillery because of the imminent arrival of US aid CREDIT: STATE BORDER GUARD SERVICE OF UKRAINE

Russia has ordered more weapons to the front lines in Ukraine in a scramble to make a significant breakthrough before the arrival of US military aid.

“To maintain the required pace of the offensive … it is necessary to increase the volume and quality of weapons and military equipment supplied to troops, primarily weapons,” Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, said.

Moscow’s forces have made near daily advances in eastern Ukraine as they mount attacks in at least seven separate directions.

And Kyiv has warned that up to 25,000 troops have been thrown into the fight for Chasiv Yar, a strategic town west of the Donetsk city of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian forces defending the area, a key position in their defence of the wider Donbas region, complained on Wednesday they were still waiting for fresh ammunition supplies from the US amid intensifying attacks from Russian troops.

Chasiv Yar sits on a hill that offers a natural barrier, helping Kyiv to hold crucial supply lines to the north, as well as the regional capital of Kramatorsk.

Moscow is believed to have ordered its commanders in the area to capture the town by May 9, when the country celebrates Victory Day.

Analysts believe Russian forces are exploiting the window before US military supplies arrive in the hands of the Ukrainians defending the hilltop settlement.

It has become increasingly difficult for Ukrainian forces to hold on because of the significant advantages in artillery fire and aerial dominance enjoyed by the Russians. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

01 May 24. The US has imposed sanctions on more than 300 Russian and international entities, including some in China and Turkey, for providing support to Moscow’s military as it wages war in Ukraine. The fresh measures reflect Washington’s increasing concern about China and other countries providing critical inputs to sustain Russia’s military industrial base. The targets of the sanctions announced on Wednesday include two Chinese groups that provided Moscow with nitrocellulose, an ingredient for gunpowder and rocket propellant, as well as Russian importers of the chemicals. “Today’s actions will further disrupt and degrade Russia’s war efforts by going after its military industrial base and the evasion networks that help supply it,” Treasury secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday. The sanctions follow warnings from Yellen and secretary of state Antony Blinken that Chinese companies providing support for Moscow’s war in Ukraine will face significant consequences. The Chinese embassy in Washington said China “firmly opposes” what it described as “illegal unilateral sanctions”. It said Beijing “oversees the export of dual-use articles in accordance with the laws and regulations”. The Chinese targets include groups that allegedly supplied Russia with drones, weapons and ammunition, in addition to chips, sensors and other military-related technology. Blinken raised concerns with officials during a recent visit to Beijing. Washington is also considering putting sanctions on Chinese banks, but the targets unveiled on Wednesday did not include any Chinese financial institutions. The Treasury placed sanctions on two Chinese groups — Wuhan Global Sensor Technology and Wuhan Tongsheng Technology — that officials recently told reporters were helping Russia. Wuhan Global produced infrared detectors for a Russian manufacturer of military optics. It also targeted Juhang Aviation, a Shenzhen-based company that produces drone-related equipment, including propellers, signal jammers, sensors and engines. The latest curbs come as the US begins rushing new lethal aid to Ukraine after Congress passed a much-delayed foreign aid package that included $60bn for Kyiv. Ukrainian troops are struggling to hold their positions along the front line in the east of the country. “Combined, our support for Ukraine and our relentless targeting of Russia’s military capacity is giving Ukraine a critical leg up on the battlefield,” Yellen said. Recommended Gillian Tett Lessons for investors from the history of war finance Wednesday’s sanctions also target Russia’s chemical and biological weapons programmes, according to the Treasury.

The US also designated shipping operators that have continued to support the development of Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project after it was sanctioned last year. Among them is Red Box Energy Services, a Singapore-based company founded by US-born shipping executive Philip Adkins. The journey of Red Box-operated vessels, the Audax and Pugnax, through the ice-bound Northern Sea Route to deliver equipment to Arctic LNG 2 was documented in a Financial Times investigation in February. Adkins has not been designated by the US. He did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The US Department of State said: “Today’s actions demonstrate the United States’ continued resolve to constrain the Arctic LNG 2 project’s production and export capacity and limit third-party support to the project.” The US has sought other ways to curb cash flows to Vladimir Putin’s regime, including a measure that passed the Senate on Tuesday to ban imports of enriched uranium from Russia. The White House has indicated it supports the move. The bill will also release $2.7bn in government funding to build domestic uranium processing within the US. (Source: FT.com)

01 May 24. Russia’s defence minister orders more weapons for Ukraine operation. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered more, and swifter, delivery of weapons for Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine, the Russian defence ministry said on Wednesday.

Russia, which calls its war in Ukraine a special military operation, now controls just under a fifth of Ukraine’s territory, the bulk seized during the first months of the war it launched in February 2022.

At a meeting with the top military command for Moscow’s fight in Ukraine, the chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov, who is in charge of the operation, delivered a report to Shoigu, the ministry said on the Telegram messaging app.

“To maintain the required pace of the offensive … it is necessary to increase the volume and quality of weapons and military equipment supplied to the troops, primarily weapons,” it cited Shoigu as saying in a statement posted on Telegram.

With Kyiv blaming lack of weapons, Russian forces have made nearly daily tactical advances in recent weeks along the frontline in Ukraine’s southeast.

Russia has taken about half a dozen villages in the Donetsk region, while firming up battlefield positions in the Kharkiv region.

Ukraine risks losing more ground if the West does not deliver weapons quickly, Kyiv’s top commander, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, warned on Sunday.

He was announcing the retreat of his troops from villages near Avdiivka, an eastern Ukrainian stronghold captured earlier this year by Russia.

(Source: Reuters)

30 Apr 24. Ukraine’s trust in NATO allies dented by arms delivery failures, Stoltenberg says. Ukraine’s trust in its NATO allies has “taken a dent” because of delays and failures in the delivery of arms for the war against Russia’s invasion, NATO boss Jens Stoltenberg said.

Speaking to Reuters on Monday evening as he travelled out of Ukraine by train after a day-long visit, Stoltenberg said such failings showed it was time to revamp the coordination of international military aid to Kyiv.

“We need a more robust, institutionalised framework for our support to ensure predictability, to ensure more accountability and to ensure burden-sharing,” said Stoltenberg, the secretary general of the transatlantic military alliance.

As examples of NATO allies falling short, he cited the U.S. Congress taking six months to pass a $60bn Ukraine aid package and European countries delivering much less artillery ammunition than promised.

Those shortcomings had a major impact on the battlefield as Russia gained the initiative while ammunition-starved Ukrainian forces have been forced onto the defensive.

“Of course, the fact that we have not delivered what we promised has put a dent … into the trust,” Stoltenberg said.

But, after a day of talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and other senior officials, he said Kyiv still believed in its allies and it was now up to them to deliver.

NATO COORDINATION

Stoltenberg, a former prime minister of Norway, said one way to avoid future shortfalls in military aid to Ukraine was to give NATO a greater coordinating role and draw up a multi-year plan that makes clear the contributions expected from each ally.

He has put such a proposal to NATO’s 32 members and said it should be backed by a big financial commitment. Diplomats say 100 bn euros ($107 bn)over five years has been floated.

“That will make it easier to plan. It will make it clear what each and every ally is expected to deliver,” Stoltenberg said, sitting at a small table in his train carriage, jabbing a pen on a NATO notepad from time to time to emphasise his points.

“And NATO can then play a bigger role in ensuring allies actually deliver what they have announced.”

Western military support for Ukraine is currently organised on an ad-hoc basis by the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group, also known as the Ramstein group.

NATO members gave the go-ahead earlier this month for military planners to work on Stoltenberg’s proposal but some governments have expressed reservations.

Hungary said it would oppose anything that might bring NATO closer to war and some diplomats have cast doubt on whether a big extra financial commitment is feasible.

But Stoltenberg said such a move would be a good investment in NATO members’ own security.

He said the money would be “tiny bits or fractions” of what the United States and its allies spent in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“There we speak about trillions and … in Ukraine, we are speaking about bns,” he said. “But we are actually addressing a real challenge for our security – a more aggressive Russia.”

Stoltenberg also faces a challenge in persuading Ukraine that a change to NATO-led coordination would be in its interest.

At a press conference with Stoltenberg on Monday, Zelenskiy praised the Ramstein group and said Ukraine wanted to make sure that any new financial pledge did not take money away from NATO members’ bilateral aid to Kyiv. ($1 = 0.9336 euros) (Source: Reuters)

01 May 24. Ukraine Targets Russian Airbase to Mitigate Glide Bomb Threat. Ukraine’s recent drone strike on the Kushchyovskaya airbase in Russia signifies an effort to neutralize the threat posed by Russian glide bombs. Western intelligence sources suggest that the attack is part of Kyiv’s strategy to limit the impact of these advanced munitions, which have been problematic for Ukrainian forces due to their ability to evade traditional air defenses.

Glide bombs, equipped with flight control surfaces, are released by Russian aircraft from distances outside the reach of Ukraine’s air defenses. Their effectiveness stems from their short flight times, small radar signatures, and non-ballistic trajectories, making them challenging to intercept.

The attack, which took place on Saturday, targeted not only the airbase but also two oil refineries in southwest Russia, far from the frontline. According to the Kyiv Independent, this marks another instance in Ukraine’s series of long-range strikes aimed at Russian military and energy infrastructure. The Kushchyovskaya base hosts Russian Su-34 and Su-35 fighter jets, which are frequently used to launch glide bombs against Ukrainian frontline positions.

Britain’s Defense Ministry reported that the strike resulted in the destruction of multiple glide-bomb kits stored at the airfield, though it was not confirmed whether any aircraft were damaged.

The successful attack is expected to prompt Russia to disperse its fighter jets and reallocate air-defense assets to cover vulnerabilities.

This is not the first time Ukrainian forces have targeted Russian airbases; a similar drone attack was carried out in early April on the Morozovsk airbase in Rostov. While the full extent of the damage from these strikes remains somewhat unclear, they underscore Ukraine’s intent to preemptively diminish the glide bomb threat. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

30 Apr 24. Ukraine’s 8th Separate SSO Regiment Used FPV Drones to Swarm and Destroy Armored Vehicles in the Donetsk Region. The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) conducted a successful drone operation in the Donetsk region, resulting in the elimination of nine Russian soldiers and the disabling of multiple armored vehicles. The operation, detailed in a report shared via the SSO’s official Telegram channel, again involved the use of first-person view (FPV) drones. According to the report, during the operation, Ukrainian SSO personnel from the 8th separate SSO regiment engaged Russian military assets, destroying two infantry fighting vehicles and one armored personnel carrier. The operation also resulted in three Russian soldiers being wounded. This recent operation adds to a series of successful uses of FPV drones by the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces. Earlier reports indicated that SSO units had destroyed a Russian T-72 tank and other heavy equipment, and had also targeted a Russian field ammunition warehouse in the southern region. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

30 Apr 24. Russian Oil Refineries Utilize Anti-Drone Nets & ‘Cope Cages’ as Ukraine Steps Up Strikes on Energy Facilities. Russian oil refineries have initiated defensive measures against potential Ukrainian drone attacks by installing “cope cages.” The development follows similar protections observed on Russian military assets, including tanks and submarines.

An image released on April 27 shows these anti-drone structures at an oil depot, which speculation suggests belongs to the Slavyansk ECO Group, indicated by the company’s logo visible in the imagery. The cages consist of robust meshed metal designed to shield the facilities from aerial drone assaults.

The move to fortify oil refineries comes as tensions escalate and Ukraine intensifies its attacks on Russian energy facilities. These strikes are aimed at reducing Russia’s energy revenues and consequently its military funding capabilities. In response to these threats, the Slavyansk-on-Kuban oil refinery has partially suspended operations as confirmed on April 27 by Eduard Trudnev, the security director for the Slavyansk ECO Group.

Other Russian oil producers, like Bashneft, have also adopted similar defensive strategies, employing anti-drone nets to protect their installations. This reflects a growing trend on both sides of the conflict using physical barriers to counter increasingly frequent and sophisticated drone attacks.

In addition to these ground-based measures, Russia’s air defense units have been active, reportedly destroying a significant number of Ukrainian drones attempting to target facilities within the Krasnodar region and over Crimea. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

29 Apr 24. UN experts say North Korea missile landed in Ukraine’s Kharkiv. The debris from a missile that landed in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv on Jan. 2 was from a North Korean Hwasong-11 series ballistic missile, United Nations sanctions monitors told a Security Council committee in a report seen by Reuters on Monday.

In the 32-page report, the U.N. sanctions monitors concluded that “debris recovered from a missile that landed in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on 2 January 2024 derives from a DPRK Hwasong-11 series missile” and is in violation of the arms embargo on North Korea.

Formally known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), North Korea has been under U.N. sanctions for its ballistic missile and nuclear programs since 2006, and those measures have been strengthened over the years.

Three sanctions monitors traveled to Ukraine earlier this month to inspect the debris and found no evidence that the missile was made by Russia. They “could not independently identify from where the missile was launched, nor by whom.”

“Information on the trajectory provided by Ukrainian authorities indicates it was launched within the territory of the Russian Federation,” they wrote in an April 25 report to the Security Council’s North Korea sanctions committee.

“Such a location, if the missile was under control of Russian forces, would probably indicate procurement by nationals of the Russian Federation,” they said, adding that this would be a violation of the arms embargo imposed on North Korea in 2006.

The Russian and North Korean missions to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the report by the sanctions monitors.

The U.S. and others have accused North Korea of transferring weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine, which it invaded in February 2022. Both Moscow and Pyongyang have denied the accusations, but vowed last year to deepen military relations.

At a U.N. Security Council meeting in February, the U.S. accused Russia of launching DPRK-supplied ballistic missiles against Ukraine on at least nine occasions.

The U.N. monitors said the Hwasong-11 series ballistic missiles were first publicly tested by Pyongyang in 2019.

Russia last month vetoed the annual renewal of the U.N. sanctions monitors – known as a panel of experts – that has for 15 years monitored enforcement of U.N. sanctions on North Korea over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The mandate for the current panel of experts will expire on Tuesday.

Within days of the Jan. 2 attack, the Kharkiv region prosecutor’s office showcased fragments of the missile to the media, saying it was different from Russian models and “this may be a missile which was supplied by North Korea.” (Source: Reuters)

29 Apr 24. Italy has given Ukraine long-range missiles, says UK defense minister. Britain’s defense minister has stated that Italy has sent Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, lifting the lid on months of secrecy surrounding Italy’s supply of weaponry to Kyiv.

Grant Shapps made the announcement while touring the factory in the UK where missile maker MBDA manufactures the Storm Shadow, which has been used by Ukrainian forces against Russian targets in Crimea and elsewhere.

“I do think the Storm Shadow has been an extraordinary weapon,” Shapps told The Times of London.

“It’s the UK, France and Italy positioning those weapons for use, particularly in Crimea. These weapons are making a very significant difference,” he said.

Britain has previously announced sending Storm Shadows to Ukraine, while France has announced sending its version of the missile, known as the SCALP-EG. But Italy has mostly declined to give any details on arms it sends to Ukraine and has never reported dispatching the MBDA missile.

On Monday a spokesperson with the Italian defense ministry declined to comment on Shapps’ remarks when asked by a Defense News reporter.

Italy first purchased the Storm Shadow from European missile house MBDA in 1999 and has received around 200, using them during NATO’s operation in Libya in 2011.

In January, Italy’s parliament voted to extend the supply of weaponry to Ukraine through 2024, despite disquiet amongst voters and opposition from some parties within parliament.

Hitherto, the country’s right-wing government has kept its list of arms packages for Ukraine secret, although it has reportedly planned to send Stinger surface-to-air missiles, mortars, Milan or Panzerfaust anti-tank weapons, Browning heavy machine guns, MG-type light machine guns, systems for countering improvised explosive devices, multiple-launch rocket systems, PzH 2000 howitzers and vehicles.

Last year the government announced it would send one Samp-T air defense system in conjunction with France.

Entering into service with the Italian Army in 2013, Samp-T is a truck-based tactical antimissile system designed to tackle cruise missiles, manned and unmanned aircraft and tactical ballistic missiles.

Italy has five systems.

Asked this month if Italy would respond to Ukrainian requests for another system given the uptick in Russian missile attacks in Ukraine, Italian foreign minister Antonio Tajani was noncommittal, stating, “We are doing everything we can to help Ukraine and give answers through the instruments we have.”

Speaking to The Times in the UK, Shapps also criticized Germany for holding back on sending Ukraine its Taurus cruise missile.

“France, Britain, and Italy have all shown that the Taurus, Storm Shadow, or Scalp are highly effective. While they’re in limited supply, Germany has many available. Therefore, yes, they should absolutely be provided. It would clearly make a significant impact,” he said.

(Source: Defense News)

29 Apr 24. Ukrainian Nynja Sport Plane Becomes Another Long-Range Strike Drone. Ukraine has transformed another sport plane into another long-range strike drone. One of them crashed inside Russia reportedly more than 600 miles from the Russia-Ukraine border, at least matching the depth of the first strike by an explosives-laden pilotless Ukrainian sport plane.

A photo circulated online by Russian propagandist Kirill Fedorov this week depicts the crashed do-it-yourself unmanned aerial vehicle upside down in a Russian field. The airframe is an adaptation of the Nynja, available pre-built from Aerosor in Kyiv, or as a kit the buyer assembles at home.

A Nynja ranges 400 miles at a cruise speed of around 100 miles per hour with a payload of several hundred pounds. “Good performance and pleasant handling,” was pilot Dan Johnson’s assessment of the type.

The Nynja is similar is shape, size and performance to Ukraine’s other drone sport plane, an adaptation of the locally made Aeroprakt A-22. On April 2, at least one unmanned A-22 packed with explosives rammed into the Alabuga Special Economic Zone industrial campus, 600 miles from the Ukrainian border, damaging part of a facility that produces Shahed drones for the Russian military.

The close look at the Nynja drone that Fedorov’s photos provide gives us a sense of how these DIY UAVs work. The wreck sports a turret for an electro-optical sensor—a video camera, basically—that might help a remote operator, connected to the drone via satellite, steer the drone into its target in the final seconds of flight.

Autonomous navigation over a potentially six-hour mission is probably GPS-assisted.

The wrecked Nynja packs a 220-pound FAB-100 bomb on an underbelly hard-point. Carrying its explosive payload under its belly rather than inside its cabin, like the A-22 apparently does, might imply the Nynja drone could drop its bomb and then turn around and return to base. That would make it reusable.

But there are reasons to be skeptical the Nynja drone’s designers meant for it to be multi-use. A Nynja ranges 400 miles on a 20-gallon tank, meaning it can fly 400 miles out and 400 miles back. But that Nynja drone in the photos crashed at least 600 miles from its base.

Unless there’s an extra fuel tank in the cabin—which, it’s worth noting, could weigh hundreds of pounds and eat into the payload—the Nynja drone that crashed in Russia was on a one-way trip that would’ve ended, one way or another, after around 800 miles.

Besides, it’s possible the Nynja drone costs just a few hundred thousand dollars once you add the sensors, communications, autopilot and explosive payload. It’s a steal compared to a multi-m-dollar cruise missile.

There isn’t really a compelling reason for Ukraine to use a Nynja drone more than once. Just send it on its way and strike something valuable: a Russian air base, factory or oil refinery. Even merely bothering Russian officials is worth the cost.

How many Nynja drones Ukraine might have on hand is hard to say. The various firms that have owned the basic design have contracted with the Ukrainian builder to produce at least 1,600 copies since 1991. That’s a lot of airframes. (Source: UAS VISION/Forbes)

26 Apr 24. Ukraine’s recent war issues a direct consequence of delayed US support. Ukraine has suffered significantly while US lawmakers debated whether to pass a much-needed financial package to continue military equipment support. Ukraine’s difficulties over the past six months in its ongoing war against Russia are a direct consequence of long-delayed US military equipment support, it is understood, with Russian forces continuing in their push westwards.

Following the capture of Avdiivka earlier this year and Bakhmut in 2023, Russian forces are now looking to seize the town of Chasiv Yar, some 5km to the west of Bakhmut. The seizure of the town, while still offering only a tactical rather than strategic victory for Russia at this point, could open up new routes north and south along the H20 highway.

Starved of the vital US military support package, which was passed earlier this week by the US administration after months of wrangling between Democrat and Republican lawmakers of domestic concessions, Ukrainian forces have been unable to sustain defensive operations across the frontline.

It is understood that despite the passing of the multi-bn-dollar US assistance package, Ukraine will likely face a difficult next three months as the shift of the seasons favours combat operations, with more daylight hours and drier ground conditions. Ukraine’s forces are known to be short of ammunition, including vital 155mm artillery shells.

A US Pentagon spokesperson, speaking on 25 April said that it was “a tough situation right now in Ukraine”, adding that the US was committed to sustaining its support “for the long haul”.

Ukraine meanwhile has struggled to obtain the manpower required to sustain their combat operations, as losses continue to mount. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has passed a decree lowering the age of conscription from 27 down to 25 years of age.

Additionally, Ukraine has suspended consular services for military-age men living overseas, while some countries, including Poland and Lithuania, have already confirmed that they could assist in ensuring Ukrainian males are returned to home to complete compulsory military service.

A total of 282,655 Ukraine visa scheme grants have been awarded by the UK Government since 2022, with around 197,000 Ukrainian’s having arrived through the Ukrainian family or sponsorship schemes.

UK Government data stated that by March 2023, Ukrainian adult males aged 18 to 64 accounted for 18% of the total number of those granted entry to the UK via the two schemes. Although the exact number of conscript age males is not available, it is likely that it will number in the thousands.

US military assistance on the move: but from where?

The passing of the US assistance has meant that stockpiles of munitions thought to be prepositioned in Europe have now been released to Ukraine. Rzeszów airport, located near the Poland’s border with Ukraine, is a known transshipment hub of war materiel.

The US Pentagon spokesperson declined to confirm whether prepositioned stocks were being sent into Ukraine, stating that critical materiel such as ammunition would likely be provided faster that other equipment.

“We’ve already started the process to move some of the weapons, ammunition and equipment which will be, you know, as I mentioned earlier there within days, if not sooner,” the spokesperson said.

Meanwhile, the UK Government has also provided its latest estimates of Russian losses in terms of manpower and equipment in Ukraine, detailing on 26 April that approximately 450,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded, and tens of thousands more have already deserted since the start of the conflict.

This figure does not include the losses sustained from private military companies, such as the infamous Wagner Group, during more than two years of combat.

“We also estimate that over 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles, including nearly 3,000 main battle tanks, 109 fixed wing aircraft, 136 helicopters, 346 unmanned aerial vehicles, 23 naval vessels of all classes, and over 1,500 artillery systems of all types have been destroyed, abandoned, or captured by Ukraine since the start of the conflict,” stated Leo Docherty, UK Minister of State for the Armed Forces. (Source: army-technology.com)

27 Apr 24. Australia’s ‘critical’ new $100m Ukraine aid. Defence Minister Richard Marles has unveiled an additional $100m aid package for Ukraine, including “critical” precision weapons, as Kyiv pleads for international support.

Announced overnight during Mr Marles’ brief visit to Ukraine, the new funding will include $50m for short range air defence systems and air-to-ground munitions.

A further $30m will be spent on uncrewed aerial systems, while an additional $15m will go toward “high-priority” equipment such as helmets, boats and generators.

Mr Marles said Australia remained “committed to supporting Ukraine to resolve the conflict on its terms” as the full-scale war with neighbouring Russia entered its third year.

“I am pleased to announce an additional $100m of military assistance, including world leading drone technology, with the support of local Australian defence industry,” he said.

“Ukraine and its people have endured two years of Russia’s full-scale invasion but their spirit remains strong. This was reaffirmed during my meeting with Prime Minister Shmyhal.”

Mr Marles also reiterated support for Australia’s assistance in training the Ukrainian military as part of the multinational war effort involving Poland and the United Kingdom.

The announcement brings Australia’s total military assistance to Ukraine since early-2022 to $880m, including 120 Bushmaster vehicles and six Howitzer artillery guns.

It comes as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces one of his most significant challenges since the outbreak of war in early-2022 as Russia seeks to capitalise on supply shortfalls.

The United States congress this week signed off on a long-awaited $145bn military aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, after opposition from some Republicans.

In a tweet overnight, Mr Zelenskyy said while he was “grateful to the United States and all of our partners”, more needed to be done to beat back Russian missile attacks.

“This night, 34 Russian missiles targeted Ukraine. We managed to intercept a portion of them. However, the world has all of the resources to assist us intercepting every missile,” he said.

“This is completely doable. All that is required is for the necessary political decisions and agreements to be implemented … We must make every effort to ensure that life prevails.”

Mr Marles also met with his counterpart in a visit to Poland where he thanked the Polish government for its support in the six-month deployment of Australian E-7A Wedgetail aircraft. (Source: Google/Yahoo!)

29 Apr 24. Ukraine’s battlefield position has worsened, army chief admits. Russian troops are advancing in the eastern Donetsk region as Kyiv awaits the arrival of much-needed US weapons.

Ukraine’s army leader admitted on Sunday that Kyiv’s position on the battlefield has worsened after Russian forces captured another village in the east, pressing their advantage in manpower and ammunition.

Russia’s troops are advancing in the eastern Donetsk region as Kyiv awaits the arrival of much-needed US weapons that it hopes will stabilise the fragile front lines.

“The situation at the front has worsened,” Oleksandr Syrsky, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, said in a Facebook post.

Ukrainian troops had “retreated” westwards to new defensive lines in a section of the front that runs past the city of Donetsk, controlled by pro-Russian forces since 2014.

Russia has “a significant advantage in forces and means” and had been able to notch up advances amid “heavy fighting”, General Syrsky said.

“In some sectors the enemy had tactical success, and in some areas our troops managed to improve the tactical position,” he added.

Russia’s defence ministry earlier on Sunday claimed its troops had captured the village of Novobakhmutivka in the eastern Donetsk region – around 10 kilometres (six miles) north of Avdiivka, which they seized in February.

The stark assessment of the picture facing Ukrainian troops comes at the end of a week of ups and downs for Kyiv.

The United States finally approved a $61 bn package of financial aid after months of political wrangling, unlocking much-needed arms for Ukraine’s stretched troops.

But on the battlefield Russia chalked up more successes.

Its troops managed to make rapid advances in a narrow column to the northwest of Avdiivka.

In the village of Vozdvyzhenka, some eight kilometres (five miles) from the fighting in Ocherytne, AFP reporters saw civilians loading a small truck with furniture and belongings on Sunday. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

29 Apr 24. Ukraine defeat would cost the West trillions of dollars, warns James Heappey. A Ukraine defeat by Russia would cost the West trillions in a new Cold War, warned James Heappey, the former Armed Forces minister.

The US Congress has passed a $61 bn (around £48 bn) aid package to help Ukraine fend off advancing Russian forces.

Rishi Sunak, the prime minister announced on Tuesday, an additional £500 m in military funding for Ukraine.

Writing for The House Magazine, Mr Heappey said that “more aid packages like the ones unveiled this week will be needed” for Ukraine to win the battle for “security across the whole European-Atlantic region”.

He added: “A stalemate or, heaven forbid, a Ukrainian defeat promises a new cold war that will last for decades and cost trillions of dollars more.”

Mr Heappey, a former soldier, resigned from his government position last month after calling for a higher share of GDP to be spent on defence amid concerns about the strength of the British military. Mr Sunak has since committed to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030.

Joe Biden, the US president, has promised “significant” support, including more air defences for Kyiv, where supplies of vital ammunition have diminished.

The aid package was passed after a vote which ended a deadlock between the White House and Republicans on Capitol Hill, who opposed additional spending on the war and argued it should be spent on domestic programmes.

The legislation passed in the Democrat-controlled Senate with 79 votes in favour to 18 against.

The additional £500 m funding announced by Mr Sunak brings the UK’s spending on military aid in Ukraine to £3 bn this financial year, which will include air defence missiles to thwart Russia’s bombardment of power stations.

The Prime Minister has also pledged to donate hundreds of armoured vehicles, 60 boats and four m rounds of small-arms ammunition.

Mr Heappey said the latest aid package would not “immediately tip the balance, allowing the Ukrainians to go on to a final offensive that brings a quick and complete victory”.

He added: “My expectation is that with this huge inflow of Western support, we’ll see the frontlines stabilise and, while the fighting will be fierce, I don’t expect to see significant amounts of territory traded this year.”

He said Ukrainian brigades need to be trained “in a complicated manoeuvre that synchronises their movement with artillery fire, air support and everything else that can be thrown at the Russians”.

He does not believe the Ukrainian defenders will be ready to defeat the Russians until 2025 or even 2026.

Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, has said he is grateful to the US Senate. He added: ‘‘Ukraine’s long-range capabilities, artillery, and air defence are critical tools for restoring just peace sooner.”

(Source: Daily Telegraph)

28 Apr 24. Ukraine’s Zelenskiy issues fresh plea for Patriots, EU accession, NATO entry. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy issued a fresh plea to the international community to hurry up and deliver more air defences, start formal talks for his country to enter the European Union, and invite Ukraine to join NATO.

Ukrainian forces face a worsening position in the east and await delivery of U.S. weapons following the April 23 approval by Congress of a $61 bn aid package after months of delay. Zelenskiy has repeatedly pleaded for further air defence systems, particularly the Patriot system.

Zelenskiy said he had just spoken with U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and thanked Congress for passing the aid package, but added that Ukraine was working with all partners to achieve a speed of deliveries that would allow Ukraine to maintain its positions and disrupt Russian war plans.

“We are still waiting for the supplies Ukraine was promised,” he said in his nightly video address on Sunday. “We are expecting those volumes and scope that can change the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine’s interests.”

He added, “In my conversation with Mr. Jeffries, I underscored that Patriot systems are needed, and as soon as possible.”

On entry to the European Union, Zelenskiy said Ukraine had met all conditions for accession talks to start, “and now the EU must meet its obligations”.

Ukraine, which has received strong support from most European nations since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of its territory two years ago, is a candidate to join the 27-member European Union, but the process will take years.

00:0000:37

On entry to the NATO military alliance, which U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on April 4 Ukraine would join eventually, Zelenskiy said that every country that shares common values and is ready to defend them “deserves an invitation to the alliance.”

He expressed optimism about the prospects for peace, referencing an upcoming peace summit set to take place in Switzerland June 15-16. Russia is not invited to the gathering and has dismissed any such meeting as meaningless without Moscow’s participation. (Source: Reuters)

26 Apr 24. 2-Year Anniversary of Ukraine Defense Contact Group Comes With Billions in New Aid. At the conclusion of the 21st meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group today, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said the $95bn security supplemental bill signed into law Wednesday is already providing benefit to Ukraine, which has for two years now been fighting off an illegal invasion by Russia.

“I’m … pleased to announce today an additional commitment of $6bn through our Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative that will allow us to procure new capabilities for Ukraine from U.S. industry,” Austin said during a briefing at the Pentagon. “This is the largest security assistance package that we’ve committed to date.”

The secretary said the USAI package is expected to include counter-drone systems and support equipment, artillery ammunition, air-to-ground munitions, maintenance and sustainment support, and interceptors for Ukraine’s Patriot system, as well as their National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, also known as NASAMS.

Materiel support to Ukraine though the USAI involves the U.S. government contracting directly with the defense industrial base to buy, manufacture and deliver new warfighting equipment to Ukraine.

But this week, the Defense Department also announced a new security assistance package for Ukraine, which was provided though presidential drawdown authority.

The PDA package is worth $1bn and includes, among other things, RIM-7 and AIM-9M missiles; Stinger antiaircraft missiles; tube-launched, optically-tracked, wire-guided, or TOW, missiles; ammunition for the high mobility artillery rocket system; 155 mm and 105 mm artillery shells; and a variety of combat vehicles.

Assistance provided through presidential drawdown authority is pulled directly from the existing U.S. military’s inventory and can be quickly sent overseas. Funding provided in the $95bn security supplemental bill will be used to purchase new equipment to backfill what was sent by military units to Ukraine.

“The announcements this week underscore America’s enduring commitment to Ukraine’s defense,” Austin said.

The Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a coalition of about 50 nations that meets monthly to discuss Ukraine’s security needs, first met in April 2022. Since its first meeting, participating UDCG nations have collectively provided more than $95bn in security assistance to Ukraine, Austin said.

“Our contact group partners have contributed most of the counter-UAS systems provided to Ukraine and most of the 155 mm artillery systems, most of the tanks, most of the armored personnel carriers, most of the infantry fighting vehicles and more,” Austin said. “Throughout Putin’s war of choice, these contributions have been crucial, and they’ve saved countless Ukrainian lives.”

The contact group, Austin said, continues to work on quickly providing to Ukraine the capabilities necessary to meet its battlefield needs. It is also helping Ukraine build its defense capabilities to protect itself in the future.

“On that first track, we pushed especially hard today to rush in more air defense systems and interceptors,” Austin said. “And on the second, this contact group is working with Ukraine to help it move … toward a robust, efficient and self-reliant defense industry.”

Austin said much of the work related to Ukraine’s future defense needs is now delegated to special “capability coalitions” within the contact group, each with a unique defense focus.

“These coalitions are looking for ways to further strengthen Ukraine’s capabilities, and they are identifying where and how to boost Ukraine’s capabilities,” Austin said. “I’m grateful to all the countries heading up the eight capability coalitions that are now up and running.”

Focus areas for those capability coalitions include areas such as air defense, air power, artillery, maritime security, armor, information technology, de-mining and unmanned aerial vehicles, Austin said.

Austin said the UDCG’s motivation is stronger today than it was two years ago.

“This contact group stands strong, and this coalition stands together, and we will not falter, we will not flinch, and we will not fail,” he said.

With today’s commitment of $6 bn in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funding, Wednesday’s announcement of $1 bn in PDA security assistance, and similar tranches of assistance that will come in the future, the United States’ intent has been clear now for two years.

“We’ve said from the very beginning … that our goal is to see a democratic, independent and sovereign Ukraine that has a capability to defend itself and deter aggression going forward,” Austin said. “You see us working towards that end with not only the capability that we’re providing Ukraine in the current battle, but the kinds of things that Ukraine build for the future.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

28 Apr 24. Ukraine may receive over 80 Soviet combat aircraft from the US. The US has reportedly snapped over 80 [81] combat aircraft, stemming from the Soviet-era, from an auction in Kazakhstan, according to the Kyiv Post. Eager to rejuvenate its air fleet, Kazakhstan parted with 117 fighter and bomber aircraft from the 70s and 80s. These include MiG-31 interceptors, MiG-27 fighter bombers, MiG-29 fighters, and Su-24 bombers.

The total sale was made for one bn Kazakhstani tenge, which equates to roughly $2.26m, as disclosed by the Post. This suggests that each plane was purchased for an average value of $19,300.

Out of the bargain aircraft, 81 were bought by the US, as per the Ukrainian Telegram channel Insider UA and the Post. However, the US is remaining tight-lipped about its plans for these vintage warplanes. The Post speculated that they could see service in Ukraine, a territory familiar with such aircraft. The transactions were conducted via offshore companies, cited the Reporter, a Russian English language news service.

The Post also suggested that, considering Ukraine’s continued use of Soviet-era weaponry, these planes could potentially be used for parts, or ingeniously used as decoys at airfields.

According to Airforce Technology, the Mikoyan MiG-31 was a supersonic interceptor initially engineered to protect Soviet airspace. The plane was paramount during the Cold War period. The MiG-27 fighter bomber, developed from the MiG-23, was instrumental in ground-attack missions and notably participated in conflicts such as the Soviet-Afghan War. The MiG-29, excelling in air-to-air warfare, was extensively exported and remains in use with various air forces to this day.

Despite its age, the Su-24 — a tactical bomber capable under all weather conditions — continues to serve in several air forces, notably the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Ukrainian Air Force.

Once an integral part of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan has traditionally maintained a robust alliance with Russia. However, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a significant political shift appears to be underway. Kazakhstan seems to be leaning more towards the West, sparking displeasure in some Russian circles.

According to an assessment by the Kyiv Post, Kazakhstan’s progressive enhancement of its military prowess runs in tandem with its escalating engagement with Western nations, suggesting a break from its historical Russian affiliations.

During his trip to Kazakhstan in March 2023, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphatically expressed firm US support for “its independence, its territorial integrity”, as quoted by the AFP news agency.

Prominent Russian propagandists have insinuated that Kazakhstan could be a potential target for Russia following the Ukraine invasion.

Russian TV commentator Vladimir Solovyov raised concerns, stating his country “must be aware of the fact that Kazakhstan could be the next issue due to a likely emergence of Nazi-like processes similar to Ukraine.”

The forging of agreements in areas like trade, education, environmental protection, and mineral resources manifests the strengthening bonds between Kazakhstan and Western nations. These bonds are crucial as Kazakhstan delicately maneuvers through geopolitical hurdles tossed by surrounding nations such as Russia, China, Afghanistan, and Iran.

BulgarianMilitary.com recalls October 24 of last year, when numerous Kazakh media agencies reported an extensive sales initiative by the Kazakh government. This initiative involved decommissioned, Soviet-era aircraft stationed throughout their air bases.

The terms of sale were quite unique. The auctioned aircraft, often referred to as “boards,” have, according to reports, reached the end of their service life and are past the stage where upgrades may be beneficial. This renders them effectively useless or unable to provide “parts harvesting”. (Source: Google/https://bulgarianmilitary.com/)

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