NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Apr. 19.

Apr. 19.

*Poland-Baltic states: Assassination plot underscores persistent threat posed by Russian networks. On 18 April, the Polish prosecutor’s office announced that a Polish national was detained on 17 April on suspicion of working with Russia’s military intelligence agency (GRU) in a plot to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The suspect’s role allegedly included the collection of information on security at Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport (RZE). Notably, a GRU sabotage network that was uncovered in Poland in 2023 previously installed cameras at the same airport. Separately, Lithuania announced earlier on 19 April that two individuals were detained in Poland on suspicion of attacking a Russian dissident in Lithuania in March. We assess that Russia will almost certainly continue to leverage networks in Poland and the Baltic states to target Russian dissidents and to support reconnaissance and sabotage operations. Major transport nodes and (to a lesser degree) defence sites and energy infrastructure will remain likely targets of sabotage.

*Russia: Western banks’ growing sanctions compliance will complicate repatriation of Russian assets. On 18 April, JPMorgan Chase, a US-based bank, took legal action against Russia’s state-owned VTB bank over its efforts to recover frozen funds worth USD 493.5m. The funds were blocked by sanctions that the US imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. JPMorgan Chase explained that compliance with the US sanctions regime prohibits the withdrawal of the funds. Meanwhile, the Russian media outlet Vedomosti reported that banks in the EU, Switzerland, the UK and the US have refused to provide Russian clients with information about the state of the securities they hold in these banks. The move reportedly complicates the repatriation of such assets to Russia, as well as efforts to substitute Eurobonds for bonds issued by local bond placements as required by a presidential decree that came into effect in January. The decree is part of the Kremlin’s efforts to circumvent sanctions imposed on Russia’s financial system. We assess that Western sanctions will continue to prevent the repatriation of frozen assets and to undermine the Kremlin’s Eurobond substitution strategy.

Apr. 18.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

OFFENSIVES: President Zelensky has confirmed that Ukrainian forces now have a one-to-ten artillery disadvantage, which, without further Western aid, will allow Russian forces to push Ukraine back every day
MOBILISATION: President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed the new mobilisation bill into law, which will likely enter into force on 18 May, increasing penalties for draft dodging and facilitating the seizure of vehicles
BELGOROD: A Russian insider source has claimed that Russia is planning to redeploy members of the Africa Corps to Belgorod oblast; while unconfirmed, such a deployment would likely increase pressure on Kharkiv oblast during the summer offensive
FORECAST: US House Speaker Mike Johnson has presented a Ukraine military aid bill worth USD 61bn, with a vote expected as early as 20 April; the outcome of the vote will likely determine whether the military situation will improve or continue to deteriorate for Ukraine in 2024
OFFENSIVES: President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in an interview aired on 15 April that Ukrainian forces currently have a one-to-ten artillery disadvantage against Russia and, as a result, Russian forces are able to push Ukrainian positions back ‘every day’. Despite this, Russian offensive operations are still resulting in significant casualties and losses of armoured vehicles, with attendant impacts on Russian morale. BBC Russia and Russian opposition outlet Mediazona confirmed on 17 April that Russia’s confirmed military death toll in Ukraine has now surpassed 50,000 verified deaths. The estimate notably excludes paramilitary and separatist death tolls, and the overall real death toll is highly likely to be much higher. UK Defence Intelligence estimated on 3 March that Russia has likely sustained a total of 355,000 killed and wounded to date. Despite the high attrition rates, Russia is likely able to recruit around 30,000 fresh personnel per month, which will likely allow Russia to maintain its current rate of losses for the foreseeable future. As such, highly attritional frontal infantry assaults are likely to continue even ahead of the expected summer offensive, which Kyiv expects will begin in either late May or June.
BAKHMUT: Russian forces are maintaining high levels of pressure on Ukrainian forces defending areas west of Bakhmut, but there have been few confirmed Russian advances over the last three days. Russian sources have claimed their forces are advancing towards the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar (Bakhmut), but the extent of these advances remains unconfirmed. The tempo of Russian guided glide bomb attacks nevertheless remains high in the area, which spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortysia Group of Forces, Nazar Voloshyn, puts at between 20-30 such attacks per day. Voloshyn assesses that Russian forces are attempting to flank Chasiv Yar from the north-east and south-east, but Ukrainian forces are currently holding their positions.
BAKHMUT: Amid the wider deterioration of the frontline for Ukrainian forces, on 16 April Voloshyn stated that a Russian victory in Chasiv Yar would provide Russian forces with ‘the opportunity to launch an offensive on Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk’. These cities are a highly fortified string and represent the ‘last stronghold’ in Donetsk oblast, according to Voloshyn. For further analysis of the impending Battle for Chasiv Yar, see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 15 April 2024.
BELGOROD: On 15 April, a Russian insider source cited by the VChK-OGPU telegram channel claimed that Russia is planning to redeploy members of the Africa Corps to Belgorod oblast, on the border with Ukraine. According to the source, the head of Russian military intelligence (GRU) Special Activities Service (Unit 52659) Alexei Averyanov, who has overseen the Africa Corps, is under increasing pressure for having missed Kremlin deadlines to expand the unit. The Africa Corps is the de facto successor to the private military company (PMC) Wagner Group following the latter’s failed mutiny in 2023. The Africa Corps is now firmly under Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) control via the GRU, and their forces are understood to have deployed across numerous African states, including Burkina Faso and Mali. It is also likely operating in the Central African Republic (CAR), Niger and Libya. For further analysis of Africa Corps operations, see Sibylline Extremism Quarterly – 29 February 2024 and Sibylline Sahel Quarterly Update – March 2024.
BELGOROD: The potential deployment of the Africa Corps to Belgorod would bolster Russian forces on the Ukrainian border, and could be leveraged to increase pressure on Kharkiv oblast to support the expected summer offensive. However, it currently remains unconfirmed as to whether Africa Corps forces will begin relocating to Belgorod, and if this would mean a reduction in Russia’s presence in Africa. The VChK-OGPU source indicated that Averyanov is under pressure and may want to illustrate his value to the Kremlin by supporting the war effort in Ukraine. This remains a realistic possibility, though it remains unlikely that Moscow would want to sacrifice its current advantageous and expanding presence in numerous African states, particularly given that it currently retains the operational initiative and military advantage in Ukraine. Nevertheless, a sizeable deployment of Africa Corps personnel could realistically force Ukraine to screen the Kharkiv oblast border, spreading Ukraine’s already undermanned units thin across the frontline. This, in turn, could aim to provide Russian forces opportunities to exploit weaknesses in the Ukrainian defence in the Donbas or eastern Kharkiv oblast.
DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 17 April shows recent Russian advances along a railway line south-east of Ocheretyne located eight miles (13km) north-west of Avdiivka. Meanwhile, additional footage posted on 16 April shows that Russian forces made limited advances in south-western Novomykhailivka, south-west of Donetsk City.
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
STRIKES: On 16 April, Russian forces launched nine Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted all nine drones over Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Mykolaiv and Poltava oblasts. On 17 April, Russian forces launched three missiles targeting the city of Chernihiv (Chernihiv oblast), killing at least 17 people. On 18 April, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 13 Shahed-136/137 drones. All drones were intercepted over Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Poltava, Ternopil and Vinnytsia oblasts.
STRIKES: Over the past few days, Ukrainian officials have alerted that Ukraine’s acute shortage of air defence missiles is increasing the success rate of Russian strikes. On 16 April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said during an interview that Ukrainian forces had only enough air defence missiles to intercept seven of the 11 Russian missiles targeting the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant (TPP) in Kyiv oblast. The remaining missiles were therefore able to reach the target and completely destroyed the TTP.
STRIKES: On 17 April, Kharkiv mayor Ihor Terekhov warned that the shortage of air defences has made the city highly vulnerable to Russia’s intensifying strikes, describing the city as potentially a ‘second Aleppo’, referring to Russian forces’ strategic bombing of Aleppo city in Syria. In recent weeks, Kharkiv (Kharkiv oblast) has been under the most intense bombardment it’s seen since the early phases of the invasion. We have assessed that the depletion of Ukrainian air defence munitions will be the single most important risk to Ukrainian cities. A collapse or severe suppression of Ukrainian air defences will allow Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) to make use of the extensive strategic bombing fleet it used in Syria; capabilities which it has thus far been unable to harness in Ukraine. While Russian VKS forces do not retain sufficient air superiority to conduct mass Aleppo-style strategic bombing, if Ukraine’s air defences continue to deteriorate, opportunities for such bombing will increase in the coming years.
STRIKES: On 17 April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky disclosed that he does not rule out the possibility that Russian forces will start attacking Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, though this is unlikely in the near term. Zelensky said Russia has already destroyed almost all of Ukraine’s thermal power generation, adding that dams, equipment for hydroelectric power plants and gas infrastructure are subject to Russian strikes. He appealed for Western partners to provide more modern air defence systems for greater protection against strikes on these targets.
STRIKES: Overnight on 16-17 April, Ukraine reportedly struck a Russian military airfield in Dzhankoi (Russian-occupied Crimea). Geolocated footage from 16 April confirmed explosions in the airfield. Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) claimed that the attack destroyed and damaged four Russia S-400 air defence systems, three radar stations, one air defence control point and a Fundament-M airspace surveillance system. This claim remains unconfirmed, however.
STRIKES: Ukrainian media outlets reported that Ukraine’s GUR co-ordinated simultaneous strikes against various aviation assets in Russia’s Republic of Mordovia and Tatarstan and Samara oblasts on 17 April. The attack reportedly damaged a S9B6 ‘Container’ over-the-horizon radar station in Mordovia. The GUR told Ukrainian media outlets that it targeted an aviation plant in Kazan (Republic of Tatarstan) and a Russian Mi-8 helicopter at the Kryaz airfield in Samara oblast. The latest attacks underscore Kyiv’s efforts to degrade Russian aviation, air defences and radar detection capabilities. While again we do not have confirmation of the success of these strikes, the fact that such a well-coordinated attack took place at all reflects Kyiv’s clear strategy to target Russian air defences, radar and command-and-control nodes that could facilitate future attacks against Ukraine.
STRIKES: On 18, Russia’s Ministry of Defence reported that, overnight on 17-18 April, Russian air defences intercepted around 50 Ukrainian drones and missiles targeting Russian regions. The Russian MoD stated that the projectiles were destroyed over the Belgorod, Rostov and Voronezh oblasts.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

MOBILISATION: On 16 April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a bill on mobilisation which seeks to bolster military recruitment. The law was published by Ukraine’s parliament on 17 April, meaning that it will enter force in a month (most likely on 18 May). On 15 April, a lawmaker of the ruling Servant of the People Party, Maryana Bezhula, assessed that the creation of a law allowing demobilisation is unlikely until martial law ends. A demobilisation provision was previously removed from the mobilisation bill, and we assess that the absence of legislation on this matter will likely moderately undermine morale and sustain societal criticism. However, we assess that this measure is likely a military necessity given personnel shortages.
MOBILISATION: Reports emerged on 16 April outlining the conditions under which vehicles can be seized for the Ukrainian army. A member of the Ukraine parliament’s Committee on National Security, Defence and Intelligence, Fedir Venislavskiy, disclosed on 13 April that the provision concerns vehicles that can be adapted for military and security purposes. Notably, he indicated that standard passenger cars will not be seized. Instead, vehicles that would be able to transport ammunition, personnel and special equipment that can drive off-road would be desirable. At the same time, if a Ukrainian citizen owns only one vehicle, it will not be seized under the new provision.
MOBILISATION: According to the reports, the law on mobilisation does not allow for the confiscation of cars from draft evaders. However, those dodging mobilisation will face restrictions on using the vehicle (with limited exceptions). As such, this clause allowing vehicle seizures is unlikely to impact the majority of Ukrainian civilians who own a standard car. It will more likely impact entrepreneurs or enterprises with several vehicles that can be adapted to serve military needs.
BLACK SEA: Russia and Ukraine reportedly negotiated for two months with Turkey on a scheme to ensure the safety of shipping in the Black Sea and reached an agreement, though Ukraine allegedly withdrew before its announcement. Reuters reported on 15 April that the deal was agreed upon in March and, although Ukraine did not want to sign it formally, it consented for Turkey to announce the deal on 30 March. While the report cannot be confirmed, it underscores that Russia and Ukraine are capable of engaging in low-level negotiations behind closed doors, though talks to end the war itself remain highly unlikely for the foreseeable future.
BLACK SEA: It ultimately remains uncertain why Ukraine withdrew from the initiative, if it did so. The deal would have seen Russia and Ukraine offer security guarantees to merchant vessels in the Black Sea. This includes commitments not to strike, seize or search them on the condition they were empty or had declared they were not carrying military cargo. Although the deal would have likely modestly improved security for shipping in the Black Sea, the north-western Black Sea will likely remain a high-risk area of operations throughout the course of the war.
TELECOMMUNICATIONS: On 17 April, one of Ukraine’s largest media conglomerates, 1+1 Media Group, reported that Russia attacked Ukrainian satellite broadcasting causing the broadcasts of several television channels to be suspended. The conglomerate reported that Russia began actively jamming the satellite signal of Ukrainian TV channels on two satellites in early March. The report indicates attempts from Russian forces to limit Ukrainians’ access to broadcasted information via strikes, with the likely aim of cutting civilians off from accessing news. While an isolated incident, this could realistically indicate growing Russian capabilities or willingness to non-kinetically target satellite infrastructure supporting Ukrainian services (including civilian services).

FORECAST

AID: On 17 April, US House Speaker Mike Johnson presented three separate bills to provide aid for Israel, allies in the Indo-Pacific and Ukraine. The proposal on Ukraine aid allocates roughly the same amount of assistance as outlined in the USD 95 bn Senate package passed in February. The House legislation earmarks almost USD 61 bn for Ukraine. However, the most notable distinction is that the measure for Ukraine includes a clause that any economic assistance to Kyiv (though not military aid) should be repaid. This is likely aimed at appealing to hardliner Republicans in the chamber and follows former president Donald Trump’s previous suggestion that the US should provide loans, rather than grants, to Ukraine. Nevertheless, this could realistically be waived by US President Joe Biden’s administration at a later date. House leaders also introduced a fourth national security bill which includes several elements not part of the Senate bill. These are provisions allowing the transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, as well as sanctions targeting Iran and Hamas. The House is expected to vote on the foreign aid bills as early as 20 April. Biden expressed strong support for the House’s proposed legislation. He called on the chamber to pass the package this week and insisted that the Senate should follow suit. Biden stated that he would sign the supplemental into law ‘immediately’. Hardline Republicans within the House sceptical of providing further assistance to Ukraine will likely represent the greatest obstacle towards passing the assistance, meaning that the package could realistically encounter delays. Nevertheless, the vote represents the single most important development in terms of foreign aid for Ukraine in months and comes at an increasingly difficult time for the Ukrainian military ahead of Russia’s expected summer offensive. If the bill is passed, it would significantly ease pressure on Ukrainian forces in the latter half of 2024, but timelines for aid deliveries would likely mean that artillery and air defence munitions shortages would continue in the short term.

Separately, on 17 April, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg urged members of the alliance to prioritise sending more aid to Ukraine over meeting defence spending targets if allies cannot do both. Stoltenberg cited Denmark as an example, noting that although Copenhagen transferred all of its artillery to Kyiv, it has a clear plan to replenish national stocks. Meanwhile, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte claimed on 17 April that many countries have large numbers of Patriot air defence systems but may not want to deliver them to Ukraine directly. He announced an offer to purchase these and deliver them to Kyiv instead, underscoring a further attempt to bolster air defence capabilities for Ukraine. In the absence of US military aid for the last few months, European states have been increasing efforts to supply Ukraine’s military. However, existing capability gaps, low strategic military stockpiles and sluggish efforts to ramp up production mean that only the US can provide sufficient military supplies to Ukraine at scale. As such, the upcoming vote in the US Congress will prove a vital indicator of whether the military situation will improve or continue to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces over the next six months.

*Eastern Europe: New backdoor points to elevated Russian-backed cyber espionage threats. On 17 April, the cyber security company WithSecure disclosed that a new backdoor, ‘Kapeka’, has been targeting organisations in Ukraine and elsewhere in Eastern Europe since 2022. When Kapeka is downloaded onto a victim’s system, it steals information that is then forwarded to threat actor-controlled command and control (C2) infrastructure. The backdoor masks itself as a legitimate file, evading detection and achieving prolonged persistence on compromised networks. Notably, the malware provides threat actors with long-term access to victims’ systems, allowing them to drop additional malicious files through multi-stage operations. The Russian state-sponsored group ‘Sandworm’ likely used Kapeka during its deployment of the ‘Prestige’ ransomware in late 2022, which disrupted Ukraine’s and Poland’s transport and logistics sectors. This campaign underscored the advanced nature of Sandworm’s arsenal, as well as Russia’s efforts to bolster its strategic intelligence-gathering and military capabilities through offensive cyber operations. As such, we assess that Kapeka poses heightened espionage and disruption threats to Eastern Europe-based organisations in the long term.

*US: Foreign aid bills for Israel, Ukraine face sustained policy stagnation risks in the short-term. On 17 April, House Speaker Mike Johnson released the text for three bills that combine military aid to Ukraine, Israel and allies in the Indo-Pacific, alongside humanitarian aid for Gaza. The bills have already drawn intense criticism from conservative House Republicans. To gain support, Johnson is expected to release a fourth bill that includes Republican national security priorities such as a ban on social media platform TikTok. The bill also includes a provision to help pay for aid by using seized Russian assets as well as sanctions against China, Iran and Russia. Johnson has also promised to present a border security bill in the short term. The House is set to vote on 20 April. The four bills will move together under one procedural rule, increasing policy stagnation risks for each measure. If voted through, the Senate is expected to quickly pass the bills. Nevertheless, sustained Republican infighting on foreign aid and threats to remove Johnson from his post as Speaker signal increased policy risks ahead of November’s election.

*Germany: Arrest highlights elevated Russian intelligence efforts to undermine support for Ukraine. On 17 April, German authorities arrested two German-Russian citizens in Bayreuth (Bavaria state) who were allegedly working for the Russian intelligence services. The arrest follows a trend of similar Russian intelligence efforts in Austria and Germany over the past month. The two men arrested on 17 April are accused of reconnaissance of critical infrastructure used by both the German and US military and planning an attack against said infrastructure. Among prospective targets was the Grafenwöhr (Bavaria) army base, where the US army trains Ukrainian soldiers to use US Abram tanks. One of the suspects reportedly fought in Donetsk (Ukraine) on the side of Russian-backed separatists between 2014 and 2016. Russia has previously attempted to harness elements of the German-Russian community (Russlanddeutsche) to destabilise Germany. Russia is highly likely to continue intelligence operations in Europe to undermine its support for Ukraine, particularly via Europeans with dual Russian nationality and/or combat experience in Ukraine.

*Azerbaijan-Russia: Military withdrawal underscores Moscow’s waning regional influence. On 17 April, Azerbaijani media outlets reported that Russia’s peacekeeping contingent has started withdrawing from the former breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region. Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov has confirmed such reports. In November 2020, Moscow deployed around 2,000 peacekeeping troops in the region after it brokered a ceasefire, ending the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. However, the Russian military contingent failed to maintain the status quo. Notably, Russia failed to intervene when, in September 2023, Azerbaijani forces launched a 24-hour military operation that took control over Nagorno-Karabakh. The passivity of Russia’s peacekeeping force, in part due to Russia’s embroilment in the war in Ukraine, has led to a severe deterioration of its relations with long-standing partner Armenia, which accuses Moscow of failing to protect its security interests. The withdrawal likely underscores Russia’s waning regional influence, reshuffling regional dynamics to Armenia’s detriment. It will also likely encourage Azerbaijan to put increasing pressure on Armenia to make territorial concessions, reinforcing the growing risk of armed conflict as international actors cannot or will not enforce a ceasefire in the region.

Apr. 16.

*Russia: Campaign targeting critical infrastructure highlights threats posed by state-aligned actors. On 15 April, the cyber security company Claroty reported that the Ukrainian-nexus group ‘Blackjack’ targeted Russian critical infrastructure as part of a destructive campaign. The group claimed to have damaged around 1,700 industrial sensors in water and communications infrastructure operated by the company Moscollector. The group distributed the malware ‘Fuxnet’, which erased the memory of compromised systems. This then disabled all remote access services, preventing the resumption of normal operations. It is possible that the attack has significantly impacted water and communication services throughout the capital Moscow and its suburbs. Cyber operations targeting critical infrastructure can impact a country’s ability to defend itself; they can also lead to life-threatening consequences for civilians, elevating the risks facing industrial organisations’ assets, operations and staff.

Apr 15.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

OFFENSIVES: Ukrainian Commander in Chief has stated that the situation in the east has ‘significantly worsened’ in recent days, as Russian High Command reportedly plans to take Chasiv Yar by 9 May
STRIKES: Russian forces likely used the new Kh-69 missiles, a new subsonic cruise missile, to attack key thermal plants in Kyiv last week, reflecting Russia’s ongoing innovation and experimentation with new strike systems
MIDDLE EAST: The Iranian attack against Israel bore a strong resemblance to Russian strike packages in Ukraine; despite growing calls from Kyiv for increased air defences, Ukraine will not be able to achieve the same success
FORECAST: US Senate Majority Leader has disclosed that congressional party leaders and US President Joe Biden reached a ‘consensus’ on aid to Israel and Ukraine during a call, but specifics remain unclear remains unclear
OFFENSIVES: Ukrainian Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on 13 April that the situation in Eastern Ukraine has ‘significantly worsened’ in recent days. Syrskyi reported that Russian forces are conducting mechanised assaults in the directions of Bakhmut, Lyman (Oskil-Kreminna) and Pokrovsk (Donetsk, west of Avdiivka). He also noted that dry weather has improved ground conditions for Russian armoured vehicles, enabling the current increase in mechanised assaults predicted in our previous analysis.
OFFENSIVES: On 11 April, Ukrainian Joint Forces and ‘Khortytsia’ Group of Forces Commander Yuriy Sodol stated that some Ukrainian units are undermanned to such an extent that they can only defend a fraction of the ground that fully-staffed units could cover. At the tactical level, detachments normally staffed by 8-10 personnel only have three or four, in some cases as few as two, meaning they can only defend 20m of territory compared to the 100m a fully-staffed unit would. Similarly, at the brigade level, Sodol stated that many undermanned brigades can only defend 3.1 miles (5km) of frontline, versus the 9.3 miles (15km) they ordinarily could. This means that a higher number of depleted Ukrainian units are currently deployed to the frontlines, preventing these units from reconstituting in the rear or preparing for future counter-offensive operations. Sodol provided the update in the context of the new mobilisation bill that was passed by the Verkhovna Rada on 11 April, underscoring the mounting personnel shortages within the Ukrainian military.
BAKHMUT: Commander in Chief Syrskyi reported that the Russian high command has ordered the town of Chasiv Yar, located less than five miles (7km) west of Bakhmut, to be taken by Victory Day on 9 May. Russian forces have reached the eastern-most outskirts of the town in recent days, but the prospect of Russia being able to take one of the most defensible Ukrainian positions on the frontline in little over three and a half weeks remains limited. The Russian high command has a trend of setting somewhat unrealistic public timelines which have very rarely been met.
BAKHMUT: Nevertheless, the 9 May timeline could reflect Russian expectations that their forces will make more rapid advances in the coming weeks propelled by growing Ukrainian personnel, artillery, ammunition and air defence shortages and the subsequent increase in Russian glide bomb strikes. Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov stated on 14 April that Russia is concentrating forces to attempt a breakthrough west of Bakhmut. While Umerov stated that Ukrainian forces are successfully thwarting these efforts, it remains unclear as to whether Ukrainian forces will be able to repel all Russian attacks in this direction given the deterioration of the frontline. In the meantime, geolocated footage from 14 April confirmed that Russian forces have continued to make incremental advances east of Chasiv Yar, which will set conditions for future assaults against the town.
DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 14 April shows recent Russian advances east of Novobakhmutivka, located eight miles (13km) northeast of Avdiivka. Additional footage posted on 11 and 13 April indicates that Russian forces made advances on the south-eastern outskirts of Krasnohorivka, located three miles (5km) north of Avdiivka. Russian forces recently conducted squad-sized mechanised assaults north of Novomykhailivka, located three miles (5km) north of Avdiivka, where geolocated footage from 13 April confirmed additional Russian advances.
KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
SOUTHERN: Russian forces have reportedly intensified offensive operations along the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia oblast border region in recent days, though confirmed advances remain limited. Russian sources claim their forces crossed the Mokri Yaly River on 12 April, and had temporarily entered Urozhaine, located around six miles (10km) south of Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk oblast). While some Russian sources have acknowledged that Russian forces were subsequently pushed back by Ukrainian forces, it remains unconfirmed whether Russian forces have successfully crossed the river in this direction, particularly following geolocated footage showing Russian forces striking at a bridge over the river on 13 April. Further to the west, geolocated footage from 11 April also indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced in central Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast). Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Natalia Humenyuk stated on 14 April that, while the tempo of Russian attacks has increased in the Mokri Yaly River valley area, attacks have decreased around Robotyne.
STRIKES: Overnight on 11-12 April, Russia launched 17 Shahed-136/131 drones and one Kh-59 missile. Ukrainian air defences intercepted 16 drones over Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Vinnytsia oblasts.
STRIKES: Early on 14 April, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with ten Shahed-136/131 drones and four S-300/S-400 missiles. All drones were destroyed by Ukrainian forces over Kharkiv oblast. Several explosions were reported in Kharkiv (Kharkiv oblast). In the afternoon of 14 April, Ukrainian forces intercepted two Kh-59 missiles targeting Odesa oblast.
STRIKES: Ukrainian media outlets reported that Russia used Kh-69 missiles, a new subsonic cruise missile, to destroy the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant (TPP) in Kyiv oblast on 11 April. Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Ilya Yevlash confirmed Russia’s use of the Kh-69 missile in the attack and explained that the projectile is an improved version of the Kh-59 missile, which is frequently used during Russian strikes. Yevlash nevertheless explained that Russia’s ability to produce these missiles is constrained by the availability of critical components, which Moscow lacks due to international sanctions. The Ukrainian official also claimed that Ukrainian forces are developing countermeasures to the Kh-69 missile and noted that US-made Patriot air defence systems would be effective in intercepting these projectiles. However, Ukraine likely lacks a sufficient number of such systems and associated ammunition.
STRIKES: In some respects the Kh-69 missile will likely pose a greater challenge for Ukrainian air defences than the hypersonic Kh-47M2 ‘Kinzhal’ ballistic missiles. This is likely because the Kh-69 can be launched by tactical aircraft, which are harder to detect on take-off than strategic bombers. Also, given that Russia possesses a large number of Su-34 and Su-35 tactical aircraft, it can potentially simultaneously launch a large number of missiles in one salvo, together with other missiles launched by strategic bombers. Additionally, the missile has a reported range of 249 miles (400km) – much longer than the originally understood range of 186 miles (300km). This will allow Russia to target various Ukrainian regions with tactical aircraft from bases on the border. Ukrainian sources have reported that Russia has likely not launched the full-scale serial production of the projectile and, as such, is currently using test batches of Kh-69 missiles. Nevertheless, the latest missile’s deployment on the battlefield reflects Russia’s continual innovation and experimentation with new systems to challenge Ukrainian air defences.
STRIKES: Meanwhile, local Russian authorities reported that a Ukrainian drone attacked a communication infrastructure facility in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district of Russia’s Belgorod oblast on 15 April. The same day, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) stated that Russian air defences intercepted a drone over Krasnodar Krai (Russia).

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

MIDDLE EAST: On 14 April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned Iran’s large-scale strike against Israel overnight on 13-14 April, which reportedly comprised 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic projectiles. Israel claimed that 99% of the projectiles launched towards Israeli territory were intercepted (see Sibylline Alert – 14 April 2024). Shahed drones (including the Shahed-136 kamikaze drone that Russian forces use frequently to attack Ukraine) were reportedly involved in the bombardment. The Iranian strike package bore a strong resemblance to Russian strikes against Ukraine in recent months.
MIDDLE EAST: Given the success of Israel and its allies intercepting the strikes, Kyiv will continue to increase calls for its Western partners to increase Ukrainian air defences. Despite Zelensky’s calls for increased air defences in the wake of the strike, the capabilities Israel and its allies leveraged cannot be replicated by or in Ukraine for a variety of reasons; most of all Western forces’ unwillingness to intercept Russian missiles. Other reasons include Ukraine’s growing shortages of air defence missiles, lack of air superiority and sufficient aircraft to engage projectiles in the air, the large space Ukraine has to defend against (compared to the much smaller airspace over Israel which can be much more densely covered by air defences) and the ample forwarning Israel received (Israel had hours to track and intercept slow-moving drones, while Ukraine rarely has such forewarning).
AID: Nevertheless, on 13 April, Zelensky announced that Germany will supply a US-made Patriot air defence system and an unspecified number of air defence missiles to Ukraine. The German Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced that the system would be transferred immediately. Zelensky announced on 6 April that Ukraine needs 25 Patriot systems to completely shield the country from Russian strikes (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 8 April 2024). As such, while the delivery will alleviate some pressure on Ukraine’s overstretched air defence network, a single system is not enough to offset the growing deterioration in Ukraine’s air defence capabilities in the short to medium term.
NUCLEAR: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on 13 April that all six reactor units at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) are now in cold shutdown for the first time since late 2022. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi welcomed the development, noting this provides an additional buffer in case of an incident at the facility. For further analysis on what cold shutdown means.
NUCLEAR: However, on 12 April, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin told Grossi about plans to restart the ZNPP during a meeting in Sochi (Krasnodar Krai, Russia) last month. An unspecified European diplomat claimed that this could coincide with the 40th anniversary of the plant’s connection to the Soviet Union’s electrical grid in December 1984. However, the veracity of the report cannot be confirmed. A successful Russian activation of the plant would almost certainly be perceived as a victory for Moscow and would be used to legitimise Russian control over the facility and surrounding territories. However, this would increase safety concerns at the plant should strikes and fighting at the site intensify.

FORECAST

US: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer disclosed on 14 April that congressional party leaders and US President Joe Biden reached a ‘consensus’ on aid to Israel and Ukraine during a call. Schumer said leaders have agreed that Congress must act quickly to dispatch assistance, adding that steps to aid both countries can ‘hopefully’ be accomplished this week. According to Schumer, the best way to send support to both states is for the Republican-controlled House to pass a USD 95 bn security package which the Senate passed in February. However, it remains unclear whether this will be accomplished given House Speaker Mike Johnson’s opposition to the bill. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise announced on 13 April that the chamber would amend its schedule this week to consider legislation that supports Israel and holds Iran, as well as its proxies, accountable. However, Scalise made no mention of Ukraine. It is also unclear what this legislation would be, or how it would differ from the Senate-passed bill. While Iran’s strike against Israel has prompted bipartisan calls among members of Congress to provide aid to Israel, it is uncertain whether this will lead to additional assistance for Ukraine being approved in the near term. On 13 April, former US president Donald Trump, who is seeking re-election this year, signalled openness to Republicans approving additional support for Ukraine if it is in the form of a loan. Trump claimed that Washington DC hands out ‘gifts’ of assistance to Kyiv, insisting that Europe must step up and give more support as the continent is much more impacted by the war than the US. The remarks are highly likely to sustain concerns about the trajectory of open-ended US aid to Ukraine under a Trump presidency and how committed Washington DC will remain to maintaining European security. Trump did not disclose details on how structuring the support as a loan would work, however. Nevertheless, Trump did float the idea of issuing loans for assistance to US allies in February. He proposed that these would have to be repaid if a recipient turns against the US or ‘strikes it rich’ in the future. However, if implemented, US aid as loans would highly likely further undermine Ukraine’s post-war socio-economic health and possibly create constraints for other areas of the economy that require attention, such as reconstruction. In the meantime, it remains unclear whether Ukraine’s current macro-economic position, which remains heavily reliant upon foreign loans and grants to sustain its balance of payments, will satisfy conditions for future US loans under a Trump presidency. (Source: Sibylline)

21 Apr 24. Ukraine faces tough weeks ahead in its fight to stem Russian battlefield advances despite this weekend’s passage of a long-awaited US funding bill, according to Ukrainian officials, soldiers and military analysts. The US House of Representatives passed the $60bn military aid package on Saturday night after months of delay that have left Ukraine short of critical weaponry in the face of Russian advances. American weapons and munitions will start flowing into Ukraine within the coming days if the bill is approved by the US Senate this week, as is widely expected. “The time between political decisions and actual damage to the enemy on the front lines, between the package’s approval and our warriors’ strengthening, must be as short as possible,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a Sunday evening address. Western and Ukrainian officials said some of the material assistance, including arms and ammunition, was already packaged in depots in Poland and elsewhere in Europe and ready to be transported. But the delivery of the US aid is unlikely to dramatically alter Kyiv’s situation on the frontline, according to Ukrainian officials, soldiers and military analysts. Commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky warned this month that the situation had “significantly worsened” after Russian forces stepped up offensive actions along several points on the 1,000km frontline since capturing the industrial city of Avdiivka in February. While far-right Republicans in the House prevented a package of military aid being passed in recent months, Russia’s army was able to strengthen its hold on the roughly 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory it occupied and seize the initiative on the battlefield. Troops on the frontline told the Financial Times during a visit this month that they were barely holding on under relentless Russian attacks to which they were unable to respond in kind. Ukrainian servicemen prepare a M777 howitzer to fire towards Russian troops in Donetsk region © Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty/Serhii Nuzhnenk/Reuters “I hope it will turn the page in favour of us in this war,” said First Lieutenant Ivan Skuratovsky of the fresh aid. His unit is operating American artillery systems at the frontline in the eastern Donetsk region, and is short of ammunition. But the influx of arms, particularly much-needed artillery shells and munitions for air defence systems “will help to slow down the Russian advance, but not stop it”, one senior Ukrainian official told the FT on condition of anonymity to speak frankly about the battlefield situation. And Ukrainians are under no illusions that the American assistance will see the country through to the end of the war. “Such a large aid package may be the last this year. Moreover, there is a fairly high probability that all subsequent aid packages for Ukraine will be much smaller in size,” said a former Ukrainian officer who operates the analytical group Frontelligence Insight. “The aid provided by the US buys us and the European Union time, about one year,” the group’s assessment said. Rob Lee, a military analyst and senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program, said that even with the new American assistance, “Russia will still have an artillery advantage, it just won’t be as great”. Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow defence think-tank, said the benefit to Ukraine from advanced US weaponry would depend on the quantity of arms supplied. The US bill only lists financing to buy the weapons, not how much of each system Washington will supply. “Successful combined operations with fighters and anti-air might significantly cancel out Russia’s mass glide-bombing campaign. If Ukraine doesn’t use the key systems en masse, there won’t be a significant influence on the front lines,” Pukhov said. Zelenskyy said earlier this month that his troops were now able to fire just one artillery shell for about every 10 fired by their enemy. That gap will now be partially closed but not completely, according to Ukrainian officials. The US assistance package, which is certain to provide artillery shells, the senior Ukrainian official said, “does not contain a silver bullet”. But Andriy Zagorodnyuk, director of the Kyiv-based security think-tank Centre for Defence Strategies and a former defence minister of Ukraine, said he believed the US aid was “a bullet enough” to kill Russia’s momentum. But this will address only one major challenge facing Ukraine, he admitted. Kyiv faces another big challenge: manpower. “I think manpower may be the key to how the war unfolds in 2025,” said Lee. Russia is at present able to mobilise about 30,000 soldiers each month, according to US and Ukrainian estimates, or enough to at least cover its massive battlefield loss. Ukraine has taken steps to try to alleviate the situation. This month, Zelenskyy signed a law lowering the mobilisation age to 25 from 27, while Ukraine’s parliament passed a new bill on conscription that is aimed at replenishing its exhausted and dwindling forces. The US aid package will buy some time to address the manpower shortage, analysts said. A steelworker manufactures M795 artillery projectiles at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Scranton, Pennsylvania © Matt Rourke/AP The US munitions likely to be delivered in the next days and weeks may also help to defend more effectively Ukraine’s critical infrastructure that has been badly damaged or destroyed by Russian missiles and drones in recent weeks, after Kyiv ran out of interceptors, the official said.

(Source: FT.com)

22 Apr 24. US aid will boost Ukraine, but doubts remain over 2025 supplies. The Biden administration wants to start moving weapons and equipment into Ukraine within days of the anticipated passage this week of legislation that includes $60bn in military aid to Kyiv, a long-delayed lifeline for the embattled nation.

The aid would arrive much later than Ukraine – running low on ammunition and staggering under a renewed Russian onslaught – had hoped, and analysts caution that there is no guarantee that more will be forthcoming.

But officials and experts agree that the artillery rounds, precision-guided missiles and air defenses will change the military outlook for Ukraine.

“With the boost that will come from military assistance, both practically and psychologically, the Ukrainians are entirely capable of holding their own through 2024 and puncturing Putin’s arrogant view that time is on his side,” CIA Director William Burns said on Thursday at the Bush Center Forum on Leadership in Dallas.

Ammunition, interceptors for air defense systems and long-range weapons can begin moving “within days” once the bills become law, said a U.S. official.

“There won’t be any delays or bottlenecks on the U.S. side,” the official said.

More than two years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has lost territory in the eastern part of the country and Russia has ramped up its bombardment of cities and towns behind the front lines amid a slowdown in Western military assistance.

Aid for Ukraine had been held up for months over objections from hard-right Republican lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives.

On Saturday, the House passed a $95bn legislative package providing security assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. It now heads to the Senate and passage is expected this week, clearing the way for President Joe Biden to sign it into law.

Over the weekend, Zelenskiy welcomed the advancing of the aid package in the House of Representatives, and repeatedly urged lawmakers to swiftly pass the bill in the Senate so the transfer of weapons can happen quickly.

The Biden administration is finalizing its next assistance package for Ukraine so it can announce the new tranche of aid soon after the bill becomes law to meet Ukraine’s urgent battlefield needs, a White House official said.

COSTLY DELAY

The delay in approving new supplies has been costly for Kyiv.

“The aid is coming way too late, as materiel shortages resulted in Ukraine losing the initiative in October 2023,” said Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War.

Since October, Ukraine has lost 583 square kilometers of territory to Russian forces, largely because of a lack of artillery, said Stepanenko, who added that Russia has had time to prepare for offensive operations expected in late spring or early summer.

But Ukraine’s military should be able to put the munitions – especially ATACMS missiles, air defense interceptors and artillery shells – to use “almost immediately”, said retired Vice Admiral Robert Murrett of the Institute for Security Policy and Law at Syracuse University.

Zelenskiy has asked for ATACMS, long-range guided missiles that allow Ukraine to hit targets such Russian command posts and weapons depots in Crimea.

Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner told CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday that military equipment including the longer-range ATACMS should be “in transit by the end of the week” providing Senate also passes the legislation.

Ukraine should also receive more missiles for the Patriot air defense system, which has proven effective against missile and drone attacks.

Riki Ellison, founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, said U.S. weapons makers had been ramping up production of missiles for the Patriot defense systems to meet demand and should be ready to ship missiles quickly.

POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY

Beyond 2024, however, uncertainties await Ukraine.

These include the possible reelection of former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has voiced skepticism over large amounts of Ukraine aid and has questioned how fast the U.S. and European defense industries can ramp up weapons production.

Trump won the Republican nomination in March and will face Biden, a Democrat, in the presidential election on Nov 5. The former president and hardline Republicans in Congress oppose further aid to Ukraine, with the possible exception of a loan.

“Ukraine needs to use 2024 to rebuild its force for the long war,” Bergman said. “Europe’s goal should be to put itself in a position to potentially fill a future gap left by the United States should it not pass another supplemental.”

If signed into law the U.S. package could have a powerful signaling effect, not just in terms of Ukrainian morale but for other U.S. allies to contribute aid, said Jeffrey Pryce, international lawyer and senior fellow at the foreign policy institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

“If America goes first then other countries are much more comfortable adding to those supplies,” Pryce said.

(Source: Reuters)

20 Apr 24. Ukrainian drones strike Russian fuel depot, substations in major attack. Ukraine attacked eight Russian regions with dozens of long-range strike drones, setting ablaze a fuel depot and hitting three power substations in a major attack early on Saturday, an intelligence source in Kyiv told Reuters.

The overnight attack, which was confirmed by the defence ministry in Moscow, comes amid a Russian airstrike campaign that has battered Ukraine’s energy system and pounded its cities in recent weeks.

Facing mounting pressure on the battlefield more than two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has tried to find a pressure point against the Kremlin by targeting oil refineries and energy facilities inside Russia using drones.

“At least three electrical substations and a fuel storage base were hit, where fires ignited,” the Ukrainian source said, citing social media videos showing fires raging at different locations.

The source said the facilities were targeted for supporting Russian military industrial production.

Russia’s defence ministry said it shot down 50 Ukrainian drones, including 26 in the Belgorod region, 10 in the Bryansk region, eight in Kursk region, two in Tula region as well as one in each of the regions of Smolensk, Ryazan, Kaluga and Moscow.

Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Russia’s Belgorod region which borders Ukraine, said two civilians were killed as a result of the attack.

The strike targeted a fuel energy facility in the western Smolensk region’s Kardym district, hitting a reservoir with fuel and oil lubricants, the local governor confirmed.

“As a result of the work of air defence forces, the aircraft were shot down. However, as a result of falling debris, a tank with fuel and oil lubricants caught fire,” he said, adding that firefighters were battling to put out the blaze.

It was not clear if anyone had been hurt, he said.

ALL EYES ON AID BILL

On Saturday, Ukrainians waited in anticipation for a vote in the U.S. House of Representatives that could finally help unlock more than $60 billion in aid for Ukraine that has been held up for months.

The governor of Dnipropetrovsk region, Serhiy Lysak, said a Russian attack killed a man near the city of Dnipro while Russian artillery hit areas near Nikopol, a frequent target opposite the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

In southern Odesa region, Governor Oleh Kiper said a missile attack on the port city injured three people, including a child. A military statement said three missiles had been intercepted.

Reuters could not verify independently battlefield accounts from either side.

Almost 26 months since the 2022 invasion, Russia is slowly advancing in eastern Ukraine and has ramped up its bombardments of cities and towns behind the front lines.

Just this year, Ukraine had been attacked by almost 1,200 missiles, more than 1,500 drones and 8,500 guided bombs amid a slowdown in Western military assistance, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday.

Unable to rapidly produce long-range missiles and with limited access to those made by Western allies, Kyiv has focused on developing long-range strike drones to hit back. Russia has a sprawling arsenal of missiles and drones.

The overnight drone attack was a joint operation conducted by the Ukraine’s SBU security service, the GUR military intelligence agency and the Special Operations Forces, the source said. (Source: Reuters)

22 Apr 24. Greece and Spain are under intense pressure from their EU and Nato allies to provide more air defence systems to Ukraine, as Kyiv prepares to demand more aid at a meeting of EU foreign and defence ministers on Monday. Kyiv this month made an urgent plea to western allies for seven additional air defence systems, such as US-made Patriots or Soviet-developed S-300s, as Russia steps up an air and missile campaign against the country’s cities and power infrastructure. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on social media platform X on Sunday: “Patriots can only be called air defence systems if they work and save lives rather than standing immobile somewhere in storage bases.” Only Germany has announced a shipment, of one Patriot system. Other EU leaders used a summit in Brussels last week to personally urge Spanish and Greek prime ministers Pedro Sánchez and Kyriakos Mitsotakis to donate some of their systems to Ukraine, according to people briefed on the discussions. The two leaders, whose armed forces possess between them more than a dozen Patriot systems plus others such as S-300s, were told their need was not as great as Ukraine’s and that they did not face any imminent threat. “We all know who has them, we all know where they are, and we all know who really needs them,” said one of the people. Officials said that less pressure was being put on Poland and Romania, which also have Patriots, to consider shipments to Kyiv given their more vulnerable location on the border with Ukraine. Ukraine currently has at least three Patriot systems, including one supplied by the US and two from Germany, prior to Berlin’s announcement last week. Kyiv also operates long-range surface-to-air missile systems developed by the former Soviet Union, including the S-300 and S-200 systems. A converted and updated version of the latter was used to down a Russian Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bomber over Russia’s Stavropol Krai region last week, according to Ukrainian officials. Air defence interceptors are likely to be included in the new US assistance package approved by the House of Representatives on Saturday. The pressure to donate systems will intensify at a meeting of foreign and defence ministers of all the EU’s 27 member states in Luxembourg on Monday, officials said. Kyiv is understood to be particularly interested in Greece’s ageing S-300 systems, which Ukrainian forces already have in their arsenal and are experienced with. “There are countries who are not in an immediate need of their air defence systems, to be very honest,” said one EU diplomat involved in the preparations for the meeting. “Each country is being asked to decide what it can spare.” The defence ministries of Greece and Spain declined to comment when contacted by the Financial Times. Sánchez said after meeting Zelenskyy last month that Spain would “deliver new capabilities in 2024 to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian aggression”. Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said on Friday that he expected new pledges of air defence supplies “will be announced soon” but did not provide any details of the countries or weaponry involved. Nato has conducted an audit of the air defence capabilities its member states possess and where they are deployed, Stoltenberg said, adding that “this mapping confirms that there are systems including Patriot systems available to be provided to Ukraine”. Recommended The FT ViewThe editorial board Ukraine’s desperate need for air defences Stoltenberg spoke after a virtual meeting of Nato defence ministers and Zelenskyy assembled to discuss the air defence shortages. The foreign and defence ministers will also discuss the crisis in the Middle East and Sudan, but Ukraine remains the most critical issue. Ukraine’s minister of foreign affairs Dmytro Kuleba and defence minister Rustem Umerov will join the meeting via videoconference. “The most important discussion will be to identify what member states can do to support Ukraine’s air defence. That’s the most important thing,” said a senior EU official. Europe Express, premium, Monday to Saturday (Source: FT.com)

19 Apr 24. A $95bn US aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan is set for a final vote on Saturday, after Democratic lawmakers backed the plan put forward by the House of Representatives’ Republican Speaker Mike Johnson. Approval of the package, which includes $60bn for Kyiv, would come at a pivotal moment for Ukraine as it struggles to hold back Russian forces who have superior numbers and firepower. The package of four separate bills, which also includes a crackdown on Chinese-owned social media platform TikTok, needed Democrat support after dozens of Republicans voted against a procedure to take it to a final vote. Clearing that hurdle on Friday leaves the House set for a final vote, marking a dramatic conclusion to months of wrangling over the billions of dollars of funds considered crucial to Ukraine’s military effort against Russia’s full-scale invasion. If the House passes the bill as expected on Saturday, it will head to the Senate, where it is also likely to pass before being sent to President Joe Biden to be signed into law. Hakeem Jeffries, the Democrats’ leader in the House, said on Friday that his party had “cleared the way” for the legislation, helping it overcome opposition from “pro-Putin MAGA extremists” such as Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia congresswoman, who he said were “recklessly” threatening putting US national security interests at risk. “It’s long past time that we support our democratic allies in Israel, Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific and provide humanitarian assistance to civilians who are in harm’s way in theatres of conflict like Gaza, Haiti and the Sudan,” Jefferies added. The prospect that the aid package for Kyiv could at last be authorised by Congress will bring relief among the US’s European allies, who have lobbied for months to secure more American support for Ukraine’s war effort, while they scrambled to find supplies in an attempt to fill the gap. Kyiv has warned that it is running low on ammunition and funds to secure more weapons, just as Russian forces try to capture more territory two years into the invasion. Approval of the aid would lift morale in Ukraine, but could also bring a swift supply of much needed arms. One western official said a significant portion of the weaponry was currently stored just across the Ukrainian border in Rzeszów, Poland. Johnson’s legislation, and especially the $60bn in additional funding for Ukraine, remains controversial among many of his fellow Republican lawmakers. Greene has threatened to lead a rebellion to oust Johnson over the move, and has been backed by Kentucky member Thomas Massie and Arizona congressman Paul Gosar. In a sign of how contentious the foreign aid package is, 165 Democrats voted to advance the legislation on Friday, while only 151 Republicans did. Fifty-five Republicans and 39 Democrats voted to block a final vote on the bills. It suggests Johnson will need to rely on Democrats again on Saturday to pass the bill, given the tiny majority Republicans hold in the 435-seat House. Johnson could also need Democratic backing if Greene triggers a “motion to vacate”, a procedural move to hold a vote of no confidence in the Speaker. On Friday, Jefferies said he stood by a previous statement that there would be a “reasonable number” of House Democrats who think Johnson “should not fall”. Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate whose isolationist stance has been echoed in recent months by House members sceptical of more Ukraine aid, has sent mixed messages on the foreign aid bills. Last week, Trump appeared to defend Johnson from House critics like Greene, telling reporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort that the Speaker was “doing a very good job” and suggested he was open to an aid package for Ukraine. On Thursday, the former president posted a long statement on social media calling on Europe to contribute more to Ukraine, but without clearly stating whether he was opposed to the new funding bills. (Source: FT.com)

19 Apr 24. Britain could pledge new air defence package for Ukraine in weeks.

Britain is preparing a new air defence package for Ukraine to be delivered within weeks after Volodymyr Zelensky pleaded for more protection from the West.

The Ukrainian president held talks with Nato defence ministers on Friday that he had demanded in response to missile and drone attacks from Russia that left dozens dead in recent days.

Speaking after the meeting, Jens Stoltenberg, Nato secretary general, told reporters that he expected “new announcements on air defence capabilities for Ukraine soon”.

The Telegraph understands that Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, did not make a specific pledge at the latest meeting of the Nato-Ukraine Council.

But defence sources have indicated that Britain is preparing a new package of support to bolster Ukraine’s air defences.

Speaking via video link, Mr Zelensky said at least seven Ukrainian cities, including Kharkiv, its second-largest, did not have “reliable” air defences.

The Ukrainian president called on Nato allies to deliver US-made Patriot batteries to protect them.

At least 1,200 rockets, including ballistic missiles, and 1,500 Iranian-made Shahed drones had been launched by Russian forces since the beginning of the year, he added.

In a stark warning over support for Ukraine, Mr Zelensky accused Nato of not doing enough to counter Russian aggression against his country.

“Dear friends, the world has seen so far an alliance that does not have equals in countering terror,” he said.

“Israel was not left alone and almost 100 per cent of the strikes against it were neutralised. It’s a convincing efficiency of the air shield of Nato countries… your air defence, your combat aviation, everything that now works in the skies of the Middle East and [against] not only Iranian drones and rockets but also several dangerous myths, especially the myth that Nato members’ actions in defence of a third country from drones and rockets involves Nato in the war.”

Western governments have refused since the early days of the war in Ukraine to directly intervene and shoot down Russian-fired missiles and drones amid fears doing so would lead to direct confrontation with Moscow.

In recent months, Russia has stepped up its long-range campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, leading to fears the war-torn nation may soon struggle to generate its own power.

Mr Zelensky earlier this week revealed missiles had struck and destroyed a vital power plant on the outskirts of Kyiv because his forces had run out of air defence ammunition.

Nato allies pledge money

Ukraine is calling for both the Patriot and Franco-Italian Samp/T system, each of which are known to be successful in countering Russian ballistic missiles.

Mr Stoltenberg said there were many Nato allies that didn’t operate either system but had pledged money to help buy them for Ukraine.

British defence sources would not speculate on whether the UK would contribute financially to such an effort. The British military does not operate either system.

It is thought to be more likely that the Government will donate another batch of ASRAAM short-range air-to-air missiles, which are manufactured in the UK and designed to be fired from Typhoon fighter jets, but converted to be fired from the ground by the Ukrainians.

A Ministry of Defence spokesman said: “The UK is fully committed to providing further air defence systems for Ukraine – we have delivered nearly 2,000 air defence missiles, with the most recent package of around 200 missiles announced at the end of 2023 and delivered in recent months.”

Germany last week pledged its third Patriot battery to Ukraine, and launched an initiative to find more countries willing to donate their systems to Kyiv.

Mr Stoltenberg said Nato officials had mapped all of the air defence systems available to the alliance and said there were spare Patriots that could be donated to Ukraine without compromising its security.

“There are systems that can be made available to Ukraine,” he told reporters. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

19 Apr 24. Ukraine needs at least seven Patriot air defence systems, Zelenskiy tells NATO. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told NATO members on Friday that Ukraine needed a minimum of seven Patriot or other high-end air defence systems to counter Russian air strikes, exhorting them to step up their military assistance for Kyiv.

In an emotional speech by video link to the NATO-Ukraine Council, the Ukrainian leader described the current level of foreign aid as “very limited” and said Israel had not been left to fend for itself during Iran’s massive air strike on Saturday.

“(Russian President Vladimir) Putin must be brought down to earth, and our sky must become safe again.. And it depends fully on your choice… (the) choice whether we are indeed allies,” Zelenskiy said in his speech.

Russia has increased its long-range bombardment of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and its cities in recent weeks, ratcheting up the pressure on Kyiv as Moscow’s more numerous and better equipped forces slowly advance on the battlefield in the east.

Just this year, Zelenskiy said, Ukraine had been attacked by almost 1,200 Russian missiles, more than 1,500 drones and 8,500 guided bombs amid a slowdown in Western military assistance.

“We are telling this directly – to defend, we need seven more ‘Patriots’ or similar air defence systems, and it’s a minimum number. They can save many lives and really change the situation,” he said.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said after the meeting between allied defence ministers and Zelenskiy that the allies had agreed to provide Kyiv with additional air defence systems.

“In addition to Patriots, there are other weapons that allies can provide, including (the French system) SAMP/T, and many others, who do not have available systems, have pledged to provide financial support to purchase them for Ukraine,” Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels.

URGENCY

Zelenskiy said Kyiv’s troops needed to receive long-range missiles and artillery shells now.

“This year we can’t wait for decisions to be made,” he said.

U.S. military aid has been delayed for months in Congress, but the House of Representatives is expected on Saturday to vote on a bill that would release tens of billions of dollars of military aid.

“We’re still waiting for new support packages from the United States – American support has been in question for too long,” Zelenskiy said.

His speech was delivered to the NATO-Ukraine Council behind closed doors, but his office published the text and video of it on its website.

(Source: Reuters)

19 Apr 24. NATO allies pledge additional air defence systems for Kyiv, Stoltenberg says. NATO allies on Friday agreed to provide Kyiv with additional air defence systems, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said after a special meeting of allied defence ministers with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Zelenskiy asked for the meeting, which was held online, as his country is facing a shortage of ammunition, with vital funding from the U.S. blocked by Republicans in Congress for months and the EU failing to deliver munitions on time.

Stoltenberg didn’t go into detail how many new air defence systems Ukraine will receive, but said he expected fresh announcements in the coming days.

“Help is on its way. And I expect more help and support to be announced in the very near future,” he told reporters.

Last week, Germany pledged to supply Kyiv with a third Patriot battery out of its military stocks.

The United States has the highest number of Patriot systems in its inventories. In Europe, nations such as Spain and Greece own Patriot batteries. (Source: Reuters)

19 Apr 24. Slovak crowdfunders raise nearly 2m euros for Ukraine ammunition drive. Slovaks angered by their government’s refusal to give military aid to Ukraine’s fight against Russian invasion have raised nearly 2m euros ($2.13m) and counting this week, in a drive to help supply ammunition to Kyiv.

Ammunition supplies are a pressing need for Ukraine after two years of all-out war. But Slovakia has refused to participate in a plan led by the Czech government to buy hundreds of thousands of artillery ammunition rounds for Ukraine that at least 15 allies have joined.

“When I heard about the Czech government’s initiative, I was very pleased to hear that all ways are being sought to help Ukraine defend itself against the (Russian) aggressor, because there is no other way,” said Otto Simko, a 99-year-old Holocaust survivor and journalist who helped spearhead the Slovak crowdfunding campaign.

Slovakia halted state military aid to Ukraine last year, arguing the conflict did not have a military solution, and Prime Minister Robert Fico has echoed Moscow’s calls for peace talks.

Ukraine says it will fight until Russian troops withdraw.

Simko said in a video posted on the crowdfunders’ YouTube page that Russia needed to be expelled from Ukraine so that “peace can be spoken of on terms that suit Ukrainian independence”.

Fundraisers say the campaign is aimed at showing a majority do not agree with the government’s shift in foreign policy since September’s election.

Previous governments had provided air defence and fighter jets to Kyiv, whereas Fico’s foreign minister met his Russian counterpart in March – a rare high-level meeting involving Moscow and a European Union member.

“Many people in Slovakia are ashamed of the government’s orientation to Russia. This is the reason people are contributing,” said Zuzana Izsakova from the Peace for Ukraine (Mier Ukrajine) civil group, an organiser.

The “Ammunition for Ukraine” drive had raised 1.94m euros after four days by midday on Friday, with more than 30,000 contributors, making an average donation of 64 euros, according to the initiative’s website.

Izsakova said fundraising would be open-ended, with proceeds going to the Czech ammunition drive, from which the first deliveries to Ukraine are expected in June.

“We will do everything we can so the people of Slovakia can fulfil their intention of helping Ukraine,” Czech TV cited Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala as saying on Thursday while in Brussels for an EU summit. ($1 = 0.9395 euros) (Source: Reuters)

19 Apr 24. What is the Russian bomber plane that Ukraine says it shot down? The Ukrainian military said its anti-missile units succeeded for the first time on Friday in shooting down a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber plane. Russia said the plane had crashed as it returned to base, apparently due to a technical malfunction.

What do we know about the Tu-22M3?

– The designer, Tupolev, describes it as a long-range supersonic missile carrier bomber designed to destroy sea- and ground-based targets with guided missiles and aerial bombs. The NATO codename for it is Backfire.

– Ukraine and its Western allies say Russia has frequently used Tu-22M3s to bomb Ukraine. The plane that Ukraine said it shot down was used to carry Kh-22 cruise missiles for attacks on Ukrainian cities, according to the country’s air force commander. The Kh-22 is a dual-capable missile, meaning that it can carry a nuclear or conventional warhead, although Russia has not used nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

– Russian airfields where the planes are based have been targeted by Ukrainian drones. British military intelligence said a Tu-22M3 was “highly likely destroyed” in one such attack at a base in Novgorod region last August.

– The first prototype of the plane was launched in 1977 but a completely modernised Tu-22M3M with what Tupolev describes as increased tactical effectiveness and larger operational radius was flown for the first time in December 2018.

– The plane is made of aluminium alloys as well as high-strength, heat-resistant steel and alloys of titanium and magnesium. It has variable-swept low wings that consist of a fixed part and moveable panels that can sweep through angles form 20 to 65 degrees.

– Russia’s air force has 57 Tu-22M3s, according to the 2024 Military Balance report by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. (Source: Reuters)

19 Apr 24. Russia’s Shoigu says tank production is booming. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Friday that the country was ramping up manufacturing of tanks and heavy flamethrower systems, but more work was needed to increase production of tank protection equipment.

Shoigu’s ministry published video showing him touring a tank factory in the Siberian city of Omsk and meeting workers, whom he praised for exceeding production targets.

“The Omsk plant is fulfilling the programme – I can say it is even over-fulfilling the programme,” Shoigu was shown telling officials. “The issues and tasks that we decided on during our last visit have almost all been resolved.”

Building new tanks is a necessity for Russia because of heavy equipment losses in the first two years of the war in Ukraine. The International Institute for Strategic Studies said in February that Russia had lost more than 3,000 tanks there, the equivalent of its entire active inventory before the war, and was having to pull old ones out of storage to replace them.

Shoigu ordered factory heads to increase production of tank protection equipment and said beefing up supplies to tank repair brigades was a key area of focus.

“Now we need to significantly increase the additional kits that we need to put on those vehicles that are in combat,” he said.

Shoigu’s visit comes as Russian forces are pummelling the strategically important Ukrainian town of Chasiv Yar with artillery, drone and air strikes. Kyiv says Moscow wants to take the town by May 9, the date when Russia commemorates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two.

Omsk personnel told Shoigu that the factory had increased production of “Solntsepek” heavy flamethrower systems by 2.5 times and that the next shipment of a new model of the T-80BVM main battle tank was ready to be sent to the front.

Factory heads told the defence minister they had hired an additional 1,200 staff since last year and were working around the clock in two shifts to expand production capacity. (Source: Reuters)

19 Apr 24. Ukraine’s growing arms sector thwarted by cash shortages and attacks.

Summary
Number of arms makers in Ukraine doubled in 2 years
Russia’s invasion triggered resurgence in sector
Manufacturers say heavy bureaucracy complicates their job
Companies also targeted by Russians, some move every few months
Power cuts could further threaten operations

KYIV, April 19 (Reuters) – Hundreds of Ukrainian businesses making weapons and military equipment have sprung up since Russia’s full-scale invasion, but some are struggling to fund production and all are afraid of being targeted in intensifying Russian missile strikes.

Owners say they have pumped in their own cash to survive and moved locations at their own expense to stay ahead of Russian intelligence. They are now urging the government to cut what they describe as excessive red tape around its arms purchases.

Several also want to be allowed to export, arguing that the government is unable to buy all of their output.

According to Ukraine’s strategic industries minister Oleksandr Kamyshin, the potential annual output of the military-industrial complex now stands at $18-20bn.

Ukraine’s cash-strapped government can only fund about a third of that, the minister told Reuters in an interview. That compares with $120bn of military aid received from allies throughout the war, most of it in equipment rather than cash.

“We have the biggest fight in a generation … If you look, for example, at NATO-calibre artillery shells, the production capacity of the U.S. and EU put together is lower than our needs,” said Kamyshin.

Many of Ukraine’s large, state-owned defence enterprises fell on hard times after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now the war has triggered a resurgence in the private arms sector.

According to his ministry, the number of defence manufacturers has more than doubled since the invasion. Private enterprises now number about 400 to the 100 state-owned ones, although the latter still provide the most production capacity.

To resolve cash shortages, Ukraine is asking foreign partners to fund its defence production. On Tuesday, Denmark made the first such pledge of $28.5 million.

RED TAPE

Some manufacturers say they are struggling to raise funds, a problem compounded by a government procurement process that they complain is slow and cumbersome.

“The first threat that makers come up against when they start working is the bureaucracy of the military sphere and of purchases,” said Vladyslav Belbas, CEO of Ukrainska Bronetekhnika (Ukrainian Armor), one of the few Ukrainian manufacturers making armoured vehicles and artillery shells, among other products.

Belbas cited the fact that the defence ministry only places orders for the current year, hampering makers’ ability to plan for the long term.

Four manufacturers making various weapons highlighted a range of issues: waiting for months to find out if the state was interested in buying, being bounced between departments in the defence ministry and armed forces, and having no assurances of future sales to help them plan production.

The defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the complaints. It has previously said it is building “a new architecture” for defence procurement, and appointed a new chief for the agency responsible for weapons purchases earlier this year.

Private investment has primarily been driven by domestic entrepreneurs, who often say they are driven by patriotism rather than profit.

A source in Ukraine’s government, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive issues, said private investment was not evenly spread.

“Everyone wants to invest in sexy stories like drones, but nobody wants to go into something difficult like (artillery) shells.”

One way to raise money is to grant licences for companies to export products that would otherwise go unbought by Ukraine due to the lack of financing.

Three manufacturers told Reuters they would like to see export licences being granted, provided the manufacturer had unused capacity not covered by orders from Ukraine.

Kamyshin said that was not feasible: “It’s fair for manufacturers to demand to either contract their capacity to the full or give them the possibility to export … but this position does not have political support, so we are looking for financing for our enterprises so that all production remains in Ukraine,” he said.

DANGEROUS BUSINESS

Aside from financial difficulties, making weapons in Ukraine during a full-scale war is fraught with risk.

When Reuters visited a factory of Ukrainian Armor, the head of the plant, who gave his name as Ruslan, agreed to speak only if his face was not shown to protect him from becoming a target of Russia’s intelligence services.

The factory, which employs around 100 people and makes armoured vehicles and mortars, was in the process of being wound down and moved to another location.

Ruslan said this was because a bigger premises was needed to accommodate more staff, as well as to make it harder for the Russians to find the factory. Some arms manufacturers move locations as often as every three months for security.

“From the (manufacturers) I speak to, not one private company received (state) compensation for relocation,” said Ukrainian Armor’s Belbas.

Another problem faced by manufacturers is the threat of power cuts, as Russia pounds energy infrastructure while Ukraine is running out of air defence munitions to protect its skies.

“In 2022-2023, we did not have electricity for two-thirds of our working hours – of course, under such conditions it is very difficult to manufacture anything,” Belbas said.

The government source said that manufacturers currently had no issues with power supply, and that if mass power cuts did have to be implemented then they “will be switched off last”.(Source: Reuters)

19 Apr 24. NATO-Ukraine Council Looks to Speed Aid to Besieged Country. Ukrainian leaders briefed NATO defense ministers about the situation on the battlefield and the country’s critical needs during a remote meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council today.

Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg briefed the news media at NATO headquarters in Brussels on the council meeting, saying NATO will speed more air defenses and artillery to the beleaguered country.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke to the ministers about the continuing Russian invasion of Ukraine. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III attended the meeting virtually.

“NATO defense ministers have agreed to step up and provide further military support, including more air defense,” Stoltenberg said. “NATO has mapped out existing capabilities across the alliance and there are systems that can be made available to Ukraine. I expect new announcements on air defense capabilities for Ukraine soon.” Last week, Germany indicated that they will deliver an additional Patriot system to Ukraine. “In addition to Patriots, there are other weapons that allies can provide,” the secretary general said.

NATO allies who do not have systems agreed to provide financial support to purchase them for Ukraine, he said. “We are also working with industry to ramp up production and to refurbish systems to make them operational and fit for purpose,” Stoltenberg said.

Denmark has also made a new pledge to aid Ukraine, and the Netherlands has announced an additional 4bn euros in military support.

The NATO defense ministers also addressed other pressing Ukrainian needs, such as 155 mm ammunition, deep-precision strike capabilities and drones. “Each NATO ally will decide what to provide,” he said. “Several allies made concrete commitments during the meeting and are finalizing contributions that I expect will be announced soon. Help is already on the way.”

Stoltenberg welcomed the U.S. House of Representatives’ decision to vote on U.S. aid to Ukraine. The vote is scheduled for Saturday.

“I count on the bill to pass without further delay,” the secretary general said. “Allies must dig deep into their inventories and speed up the delivery of missiles, artillery and ammunition. Ukraine is using the weapons we provided to destroy Russian combat capabilities. This makes us all safer.”

The NATO leader said support to Ukraine is not charity, but “an investment in our own security.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

18 Apr 24. DOD Stands Ready to Rush Critically Needed Weapon Systems to Ukraine.

The Defense Department stands ready to rush crucial supplies to Ukraine if Congress passes the supplemental request promptly, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said today.

The general would not speculate on congressional approval of the supplemental request, but he said from a DOD standpoint, “what we’re focused on right now is ensuring that we can get Ukraine the assistance that it needs. We’re focused on working with international allies and partners to ensure that Ukraine gets what it needs, not only in the near term, but also for the long term.”

The general said mechanisms remain in place to speed supplies to Ukraine. “The Ukrainians have demonstrated their resilience and their courage under fire; we have no reason to think that that’s going to change,” he said. “But we also understand the dire situation they are in right now, which is why, again, we’d like very much to see the supplemental pass.”

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III yesterday said much the same thing during testimony alongside Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense.

Passage of the request would signal to the world that the United States stands by its friends, Ryder said. “If approved, the funding request will provide essential aid to our partners in Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific,” he said. ” would provide nearly $60n for the Department of Defense with about $50bn of that sum flowing through the nation’s defense industrial base , in turn, creating American jobs in over 30 states.

“Immediate passage of the supplemental remains the most important thing Congress could do to assist our warfighters in defending our country and enabling DOD to support our allies and partners, like Israel and Ukraine,” he continued.

Ryder also announced that Austin will participate in a virtual NATO-Ukraine Council meeting. “The secretary and his fellow defense ministers will discuss the international efforts and Ukraine’s pressing needs to include air defense and artillery,” he said.

Ryder also announced the secretary will convene a virtual meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group on April 26.

“Both meetings underscore the unwavering commitment of the United States and the international community to support the people of Ukraine, as they continue to fight for freedom and protect their sovereignty from Russian aggression,” Ryder said.

The general said if Congress passes the aid package, the department is poised to respond quickly using presidential drawdown authority. “We have a very robust logistics network that enables us to move material very quickly; as we’ve done in the past, we can move within days,” he said.

While he would not go into details, the general said the package will include crucial capabilities like artillery ammunition and air defense weapons.

(Source: U.S. DoD)

20 Apr 24. US Department of Defense Statement on A-10 Thunderbolt II Attack Aircraft for Ukraine.

The question of transferring A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft to Ukraine has been under discussion since 2022

During recent hearings in the House Armed Services Committee, United States Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall stated that Ukraine, despite previous interest, purportedly is not currently interested in the A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft.

Kendall said he wasn’t aware of any “active interest.”

“Ukraine hasn’t expressed much interest. I think they, rightfully, are concerned about their survivability,” he added.

At the same time, there have been no official comments from Ukraine regarding this issue in the context of Kendall’s statement.

Let’s remind that earlier this year, Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force Mykola Oleshchuk stated that while the F-16 fighter is a priority, the deployment of American A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft and the Mirage-2000D fighters in Ukraine are also being considered.

Kendall also noted that “at least one country has expressed some interest” in these aircraft, although who exactly that is remains unknown at the moment, according to Defense One.

“But the problem is once that aircraft goes out of the U.S. inventory, there won’t be any base support for it. So any country that picks it up and tries to sustain it would have a very hard time. It’s also a very old aircraft, about 45 years old. Replacement parts are very hard to find,” he said.

But Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, says the plane could be effective if Ukraine had the right complement of systems and capabilities, like F-16s, to accompany it.

“This idea that they wouldn’t be effective on the battlefield in Ukraine, I don’t subscribe to because this plane was literally designed to destroy Soviet armor and russian armor. Yes, it’s a bit dated, but so are the ATACMS, so are the HIMARS,” Coffey said.

The information regarding Ukraine’s acceptance or rejection of the A-10 attack aircraft warrants careful consideration, given the frequent discussion of this topic by various Western officials and media outlets. It should be remembered that an important role in this matter should be played by the decisions and vision of the Ukrainian Air Force in the development of aviation, taking into account the needs and challenges of the modern complex battlefield.

(Source: News Now/https://en.defence-ua.com/)

19 Apr 24. Mbombe 6 inspected by Ukraine Armed Forces. A single Paramount Mbombe 6 infantry combat vehicle that was exported to Ukraine prior to the Russian invasion as a demonstration model has been inspected by the Ukrainian military’s Commander-in-Chief after being fitted with a locally made turret.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine this week released video of Colonel General Oleksandr Stanislavovych Syrskyi inspecting ‘weapons and military equipment created by Ukrainians.’

Syrskyi and his team reportedly had the opportunity on 18 April to get acquainted with the Minister of Defence, Rustem Umyerov, and to evaluate new anti-tank weapons and the possibilities of their deployment on the battlefield.

Shown in the video was a modified BMP-1TS infantry fighting vehicle with a Spys-Syntez (BM-5) turret, an Oncilla 4×4 armoured vehicle, a 4×4 utility vehicle, and infantry equipment.

The Mbombe 6 was seen fitted with a Spys-Syntez turret equipped with a 30 mm cannon. This turret is offered by Ukraine’s TechImpex, which specialises in the overhaul and modernisation of armoured vehicles, artillery systems, engines, sights, and the development and production of remotely operated weapons stations.

According to the company, the Spys-Syntez turret weighs 1.2 tons without ammunition and 1.6 tons with ammunition. It can be armed with a 30 mm ZTM-1 (2A72) cannon with 300 rounds ready to fire; a 7.62 mm PKT machinegun with 2 100 rounds; a 30 mm KBA-117 (AGS-17) automatic grenade launcher with 116 rounds; or a twin anti-tank guided missile launcher. Protection is to NATO STANAG 4569 Level 3.

Some sources suggest the Mbombe 6 is being licensed produced in Ukraine, but Paramount told defenceWeb that the Mbombe 6 seen in the video is a demonstration vehicle that was exported before the Russian invasion in February 2022.

The vehicle was sent to Ukraine with all the necessary National Conventional Arms Control Committee (NCACC) permits from the South African government but could not return due to the conflict. Paramount said permit validity had been extended to next year as a result.

Ukraine is manufacturing various foreign armoured vehicles for its war effort, including the M113 (Lys – Fox), MaxxPro (Sikach – Boar), and HMMWV (Kharakternyk Warlock).

Paramount’s Mbombe 6 was launched in 2010 and since then has been ordered by Ecuador and Jordan. Kazakhstan Paramount Engineering (KPE) is building the Mbombe 6 and 8 as the Barys 6 and 8 vehicles for the Kazakh Ministry of Defence.

The Mbombe 6 weighs 17.3 tonnes empty and has a payload of 5.2 tonnes. The vehicle can carry three crew and eight soldiers. Its hull meets STANAG 4569 Level 4, which means the vehicle can withstand a 10 kg TNT blast under its hull or any wheel station. Ballistic protection is to Level 3.

The Mbombe family (4×4 Mbombe 4, 6×6 Mbombe 6, and 8×8 Mbombe 8) features a flat mine-protected floor, giving a lower and better stability than V-shaped armoured hulls. All three models share 80% common components to reduce through life costs and make training and logistics easier. A six-cylinder diesel gives a top speed of more than 110km/h.

At the DSEI show last year, Paramount said that its Mbombe 6 has been ordered by national defence forces in Latin America and in the Southern African Development Community (SADEC). More than 20 of its next-generation infantry combat vehicles were then in production, with deliveries underway, the company said at the time. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)

19 Apr 24. Arrests in Germany Over Alleged Russian Spying and Sabotage Plot. German authorities have arrested two individuals, Dieter S. and Alexander J., both German-Russian nationals, on suspicions of espionage and planning sabotage attacks against U.S. military facilities in Germany. The Federal Prosecutor’s Office announced that these arrests are part of an investigation into activities aimed at undermining international military support for Ukraine amidst its ongoing conflict with Russia.

The investigation revealed that Dieter S. had allegedly been in contact with a Russian secret service agent since October 2023, discussing potential sabotage operations within Germany. These discussions reportedly included plans for explosive and arson attacks targeting infrastructure used for military purposes, particularly facilities instrumental in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.

Both suspects were apprehended in Bayreuth, Bavaria, and are facing charges of working for a foreign secret service and engaging in activities threatening state security. The specific charges against Dieter S. include preparing for acts of violence that pose a serious danger to the state and membership in a foreign terrorist organization, reflecting his past involvement with pro-Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine.

The German Foreign Ministry reacted to these developments by summoning the Russian ambassador to Berlin while other German officials, including the interior minister and justice minister, have publicly condemned the espionage activities. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

19 Apr 24. Arrest in Poland Linked to Alleged Russian Plot to Assassinate Ukrainian President. Polish officials announced the arrest of a Polish citizen, identified only as Pawel K., on charges of espionage for Russia with the alleged intention of facilitating an assassination plot against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The arrest was made on Wednesday, and the suspect is accused of planning to provide critical security details about the Rzeszow-Jasionka airport, a major hub for military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine and a frequent travel point for Ukrainian and international leaders.

According to Poland’s National Prosecutor, Pawel K. was actively in connection with individuals directly involved in the Russian military’s operations in Ukraine. His activities reportedly included preparing to pass detailed security information about the Rzeszow-Jasionka airport to Russian agents, which could potentially be used to target President Zelenskyy during his visits to Poland.

The announcement from the Polish National Public Prosecutor’s Office reads:

“According to the findings of the investigation, the suspect Pavel K. declared his readiness to act for the benefit of the military intelligence of the Russian Federation and established contacts with citizens of the Russian Federation directly involved in the war in Ukraine. One of his tasks was to collect and provide the military intelligence of the Russian Federation with information on the security of the Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport. This was supposed to help Russian special services plan a possible attempt on the life of the head of a foreign state, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky.”

This arrest is part of a broader context of heightened vigilance in Poland, which has emerged as a staunch supporter of Ukraine since the onset of the Russian invasion in February 2022. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

18 Apr 24. Ukrainian Special Ops Successfully Target Russian T-90 Tank Using Drone Technology. The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) have announced a successful strike against a Russian T-90 tank during operations in the Donetsk region. Using FPV drone technology, SSO operators from the 3rd regiment targeted and immobilized the armored vehicle, reportedly wounding the tank’s commander and gunner in the process. The attack was part of ongoing reconnaissance and engagement efforts in the contested area. A video released by the Special Ops captured the attack, showing the tank initially in action before being struck by the drone. Following the hit, the tank emitted a thick plume of smoke and eventually halted. Subsequent footage showed Russian military personnel approaching the immobilized tank, likely to assist the wounded crew. Verification of the video, including the precise timing and location of the strike, remains unconfirmed due to the video quality and visual obstructions caused by fire and smoke. However, a Ukrainian aerial scout confirmed the vehicle as a T-90, though the specific variant could not be determined. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

18 Apr 24. NATO working on more air defences for Ukraine, Stoltenberg says. NATO is working to send more air defence systems to Ukraine, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday, adding that delays in providing such aid were harming Kyiv’s efforts to resist Russia’s attacks.

“We have compiled data about the different air defence systems we have in NATO and focused on the Patriot systems. And we are working with allies to ensure that they redeploy some of their systems to Ukraine,” he told reporters on the sidelines of a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Italy.

“We are working at the possibility of more Patriot batteries to Ukraine. We are in dialogue with some specific countries,” Stoltenberg said, calling supply of the Patriot “critical” as it is the most advanced defence system the alliance can count on.

Stoltenberg said other defence systems might also be provided to Ukraine, including the NASALS surface-to-air missile system.

“Delays in the delivery of air defence mean that more Russian missiles will hit their targets in Ukraine. Delays in delivery of ammunition mean that Russia will be able to push more along the front line,” he added.

Stoltenberg said a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council would take place on Friday and that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was expected to participate virtually.

“I am encouraged by the commitment and the determination by NATO allies to stand up for Ukraine,” he told reporters, adding there were encouraging signs that the U.S. Congress might soon unlock an aid package for Ukraine worth $60.84bn. (Source: Reuters)

17 Apr 24. Dutch deliver three more F-16s for training Ukrainian pilots in Romania. The Netherlands on Wednesday has handed over another three F-16 fighter jets to a training facility in Romania, where Ukrainian pilots and ground staff are being taught to fly and maintain the planes in battle. The Netherlands has been one of the driving forces behind an international coalition to supply Ukraine with F-16s to strengthen its air defense against the Russian invasion. Denmark, the Netherlands and the United States expect to deliver the first of dozens of F-16s to Ukraine within a few months after establishing the pilot training programme and donating aircraft.

“We hope to start this summer and we hope to see the first Dutch planes going there in the autumn,” Dutch Defence minister Kajsa Ollongren said after the handover of the planes in Romania.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called the donation a “breakthrough agreement” last year and said the planes would strengthen Ukraine’s air defences and help its counter-offensive against Russian forces.

But U.S. officials have privately said the jets will not be a game changer when they eventually arrive after months of training, given the strength of the Russian air force and its defense systems.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin last month said the F-16s would not change the situation on the battlefield and would be shot down by Russian forces.

“We shouldn’t be in this kind of game of saying how much is destroyed, because I think that then the Ukrainians have a bigger success than the Russians,” Ollongren said.

“The problem is that Russia is continuing this illegal war in Ukraine at the cost of enormous numbers of human lives, also on their side. We have to step up and increase our support to Ukraine.”

The Dutch had already delivered eight of the promised total of 18 F-16s to the training facility since November.

They have also promised to deliver a total of 24 F-16s for use in Ukraine, with the first ones expected to arrive in the second half of the year, adding to earlier deliveries of the aircraft by the Danish armed forces.

The Dutch government last week said it would increase military support to Ukraine to a total of 3bn euros ($3.19bn) this year and has earmarked the same amount for 2025. (Source: Reuters)

17 Apr 24. Deaths of Russian soldiers surpass 50,000 in ‘meat grinder’ war. Toll surges by quarter in a year as Kremlin persists in ordering wave after wave of men forward to wear down Ukraine forces

Deaths of Russian soldiers soared by a quarter in the second year of its “meat grinder” war in Ukraine, with reports that the toll has passed the 50,000 mark.

More than 27,300 Russian troops died in the second year of the conflict in a sign of the price paid in blood by Moscow for its illegal territorial gains.

Russian tactics have been likened to a meat grinder for their disregard for their soldier’s lives as they order wave after wave of men forward to expose Ukrainian troop locations and wear them down.

BBC Russian, Mediazona, an independent media group, and volunteers have been counting deaths since the start of the invasion in February 2022.

They reported the increase of almost 25 per cent after scrutinising open source information from official reports, social media and newspapers, even noting names on new graves in 70 Russian cemeteries.

Aerial photos showed that graveyards have been expanded to make space for soldiers killed in what the Institute for the Study of War described as “ineffective human-wave style frontal assaults” in battles for the Ukrainian cities of Vuhledar, Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

Russia’s prisoner policy

The 50,000 death toll is eight times higher than the only public confirmation of fatality numbers from Moscow in September 2022 but is likely to be smaller than the true amount.

The analysis does not include deaths of Kremlin-controlled militia in Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.

The BBC estimated that at least two in five of Russia’s dead soldiers were not involved in the military before the war.

Volunteers, civilians and prisoners have been recruited to replace wounded or dead professional soldiers.

Their lack of experience makes them prime candidates for the simplistic “meat grinder” tactic, which is usually a front line assault with artillery support.

Prisoners were recruited for the Wagner group of mercenaries, until the failed mutiny led by its boss Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Russia, which has ordered one mobilisation of reservists since the war began, has continued the prisoner policy.

BBC analysis found that, under Wagner, former prisoners survived for an average of three months but inmates recruited by the defence minister only lived for an average of two months.

Volodymyr Zelensky said in February that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed but other estimates suggest higher losses.

‘West should do more to defend Ukraine’s skies’

A Russian strike on the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv on Wednesday killed 11 people and 20 wounded more, as Kyiv again sounded the alarm over shortages in its air defence capabilities.

First responders searched for survivors in rubble, carrying away the wounded on stretchers as a pool of blood formed on the ground near the scene of the strikes, official images showed. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

17 Apr 24. Germany launches urgent appeal to bolster Ukraine’s starved air defences against Russia.

Summary
Germany presses EU, NATO on air defence help for Ukraine
Netherlands, Denmark, Czechia support German proposal
Ukraine short of ammunition, weapons, pleads for help
Missiles pound Ukrainian cities, 16 killed in Chernihiv

Germany has appealed to European Union and NATO member states to bolster Ukraine’s air defences as quickly as possible as Russian missiles pounded Ukrainian cities on Wednesday and its president repeated urgent calls for support.

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock have approached the EU, NATO and third party countries in a new initiative that will also be discussed at a Group of Seven (G7) foreign ministers’ meeting this week.

Ukraine is facing a shortage of ammunition, with vital funding from the U.S. blocked by Republicans in Congress for months and the EU failing to deliver munitions on time.

“We and our partners around the world must now be just as resolute in our defence against Russian terror from the air,” Baerbock said ahead of the G7 ministerial meeting on the Italian island of Capri.

“Stronger air defences are a matter of life and death for thousands of people in Ukraine and the best protection for our own security.”

In the latest strike, Russian missiles killed at least 16 people and wounded dozens in the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv on Wednesday, prompting Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to make another plea for weapons.

The German initiative was in response to the changing nature of the threat in Ukraine, a German defence ministry spokesperson told a briefing, adding that a number of countries had signalled their interest.

“Russia is increasingly using industrially produced glide bombs that can be fired from a great distance from the Ukrainian border,” the spokesperson said.

FACING CHOICES

The Netherlands, Czechia and Denmark quickly rallied behind the proposal.

“More air defences are needed, and they are needed fast,” Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said after meeting NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and his Danish and Czech counterparts in Brussels.

“We will consider, the three of us, how we can support this German initiative.”

Germany is Ukraine’s second-biggest donor of military aid after the United States and most recently pledged a U.S.-made Patriot air defence system and air defence missiles to Ukraine.

More than two years into its full-scale invasion, Russia has staged massive airstrikes on power stations and substations in recent weeks, prompting Kyiv to issue desperate appeals for supplies of high-end air defences.

“This would not have happened if Ukraine had received sufficient air defence equipment and if the world’s determination to counter Russian terror had been sufficient,” Zelenskiy said about the attack on Chernihiv.

Zelenskiy earlier pointed to how effectively Israel and its allies had repelled a barrage of Iranian drones and missiles in an attack last weekend.

“European skies could have received the same level of protection long ago if Ukraine had received similar full support from its partners in intercepting drones and missiles, he said.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen suggested European countries should consider “sending a few of our own air defence systems to Ukraine at a time when they, not we, are struggling daily to fight off the never-ending Russian attack”.

Stoltenberg said NATO defence ministers would focus in their planned talks this week on air defences and supplying Ukraine with more weapons, even if that came at the expense of meeting their own countries’ stockpile targets.

“If allies face a choice between meeting NATO capability targets and providing more aid to Ukraine, my message is clear: Send more to Ukraine.”

17 Apr 24. Ukrainian military attacked Russian airfield in occupied Crimea. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday that the Ukrainian military had attacked a large Russian airfield in occupied Crimea and thanked his top military commander for staging the strike.

“Today, the Ukrainian armed forces carried out a precise strike on the occupiers in Dzhankoi, on an airfield,” Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.

“Thank you, warriors. Thank you for your accuracy. Thank you to commander-in-chief (Oleksandr) Syrskyi for organising this operation.”

The president expressed thanks to servicemen staging “special operations, especially important operations, extremely significant ones that destroy the equipment of the Russian army, their combat infrastructure”.

Dzhankoi lies in the northern part of the Crimea peninsula, seized and annexed by Russia in 2014. Unofficial sources in both Ukraine and Russia had earlier reported a series of explosions at the base. (Source: Reuters)

15 Apr 24. Ukraine sharply boosts delivery of drones to armed forces so far this year, commander says. Ukraine has delivered three times more drones to its armed forces so far this year than in the whole of 2023, a top commander said, as Ukrainian forces accelerate the use of unmanned craft in the war against Russia.

“This process continues and will only grow,” said Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi, the commander of Ukraine’s drone forces.

Ukraine, which has been fighting off a full-scale Russian invasion for nearly 26 months, is seeking to ramp up its domestic arms manufacturing and use of innovative technologies to compete against its much larger and wealthier enemy.

He was speaking at an exhibition on Saturday showcasing Ukrainian-made unmanned vehicles for land, sea and air, electronic warfare systems and armoured vehicles.

Ninety-nine percent of drones used by the Ukrainian military are produced domestically, Sukharevskyi said.

“It’s no secret that our resource limitations in artillery are compensated by drones, such as FPVs (first-person view) and (bomber) drop drones,” he told reporters, referencing an imbalance of artillery firepower between Ukraine and Russia which analysts put at six to one in Russia’s favour.

As the Ukrainian military is outgunned and outmanned on the battlefield, Moscow’s forces have been increasing pressure along the entire frontline and making gradual gains.

The increased use of drones by both sides has been shifting the conflict away from the battlefield to strikes on each other’s military, energy and transport infrastructure.

Ukrainian Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), used to hit targets inside Russia in recent months, can now hit targets more than 1,200 km (750 miles) away, Sukharevskyi said.

Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s Minister of Strategic Industries, said Ukrainian weapons manufacturers had fuelled both military and economic progress in the country.

Ukraine’s booming military-industrial complex grew GDP by 1.5% in 2023, a significant chunk of the total GDP growth last year of around 5%.

Kamyshin said he was confident that figure would double to 3% of GDP growth this year. But he warned Ukraine’s government could not afford to buy up all its domestic weapons’ production.

Ukraine was in discussions with international allies about the purchase of weapons for Ukraine from Ukrainian makers to cover the financial shortfall, he said.

“I am convinced that we will start purchases from Ukrainian manufacturers with foreign funds in the new future,” he said. (Source: Google/Reuters)

15 Apr 24. UK Defence Minister affirms support to Black Sea security.

The UK’s commitment to European security was reaffirmed by Defence Minister Minto on a visit to Bulgaria today (15 April).

Defence Minister Minto represented the UK at the Black Sea Security Conference in Bulgaria.
Minto affirmed the UK’s unwavering support to Ukraine and European security.
Conference discussed cooperation in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and aggression in the Black Sea.

Attending the Black Sea Security Conference in Sofia alongside allies and partners, Minto represented the UK – a leading partner for Ukraine and other Black Sea states.

The conference was convened to promote cooperation and military capacity building in the face of Russia’s continued threat to stability in the Black Sea region. The conference aims to enhance the collaboration between the Black Sea states and partners in response to Putin’s aggression and illegal invasion of Ukraine.

The UK’s leadership of the Maritime Capability Coalition, announced by UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps in December 2023, was discussed during the conference as a means to grow Ukraine’s maritime capability now and in the long term.

Defence Minister, The Earl of Minto said: “One of many things that the UK and Bulgaria have in common is our steadfast support to Ukraine in the face of Putin’s barbaric invasion. The UK and our allies and partners will continue to work together to give Ukraine what they need to defeat Russia and restore peace and security to the Black Sea region. The UK’s commitment to modernise Ukraine’s Navy is demonstrated by the transfer of two former Royal Navy vessels to Ukraine, which arrived in Portsmouth last week.”

In addition to maritime support, the Minister also set out the extensive package of military aid that the UK has provided to Ukraine to date, including £7 bn of funding, training of over 60,000 Ukrainian recruits, and donation of thousands of pieces of equipment to date.

The need to continue to back Ukraine to ensure they defeat Putin to restore peace and security in Europe was highlighted during the conference, which was attended by Ukrainian representatives.

While standing with Ukraine, the UK continues to support regional security, deploying Typhoons to Romania at the start of the month to conduct NATO Air Policing patrols, keeping the skies in the Black Sea region safe. Separately, thousands of UK Armed Forces are deploying on NATO Exercise Steadfast Defender across Europe this year.

While in Sofia, the Minister met Bulgarian Defence Minister Atanas Zapryanov, to discuss shared security challenges and defence priorities. The Minister also met Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister, Tochytskyi Mykola. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

15 Apr 24. Ukraine deploys new, more capable C-UAS jamming system to the front line. Ukraine has deployed its counter-unmanned aerial system (C-UAS) dual jamming Ai-Petri SV system for the first time.

Developed by a Ukrainian team, and funded by the Poroshenko Foundation, the Ai-Petri has been described as a dual jamming system and cyber weapon by former president of Ukraine and the foundation’s chair, Petro Poroshenko.

In a Facebook post, Poroshenko said the C-UAS “not only spreads noise across all frequency bands, but also clearly intercepts the pilot’s position, prevents Russian UAVs from working, completely disorients first-person view (FPV) drones, and can even interfere with the operation of air traffic control systems”. He added that the system is already operational in the Avdiyiv region.

“Usually, the development of such a system takes from three to eight years,” Poroshenko said, “but we managed it in less than five months and are already working on scaling, because we have many orders from the military.”

The complete C-UAS includes a radar station and autonomous power supply, as well as various communications and control equipment.

Petro Poroshenko also announced on Facebook that the Poroshenko Foundation and volunteers of the Sprava Hromad NGO have jointly delivered 2,000 FPV drones, as well as engineering and special equipment to the Ukrainian military. (Source: www.unmannedairspace.info)

15 Apr 24. Ukrainian Drones Damage One of Russia’s Three Giant Be-200 Flying Boats. Swarms of Ukrainian long-range attack drones targeted three Russian air bases. The drone strikes on Yeysk, Kursk and Engels-2 air bases—respectively 100, 200 and 400 miles from the front line in Ukraine—inflicted some damage, but it’s hard to say how much damage. The Ukrainian intelligence directorate told Kyiv Independent it damaged, if not destroyed, seven Russian warplanes. The Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies counted eight destroyed Russian planes and eight damaged ones. But there’s satellite imagery confirming just one damaged jet—and it’s a doozy: a rare Beriev Be-200 jet-propelled flying boat. A new transport and search-and-rescue plane that can launch and land on water while carrying tons of cargo. At least some of the drones that struck Yeysk, just across the Sea of Azov from southern Ukraine, exploded on the apron on the northeast edge of the base. There, the Russian navy had parked several of its planes, including some turboprop and jet transports, a pair of Sukhoi fighter-bombers and one of the 30-ton twin-jet Be-200s. Satellite imagery from Planet Labs, recorded in the aftermath of the drone raid, seems to depict damage to the parked Be-200, including a missing wing panel and a fuel leak. The Russian navy got its first Be-200 just four years ago and reportedly has three in its inventory, complementing a fast-shrinking fleet of very old propeller-driven Beriev Be-12 amphibians. Maybe the damaged Be-200 is fixable. Maybe it’s a $40-millon write-off. In any event, it’s a tidy little victory for Ukraine’s growing drone strike force, which has been escalating its attacks on Russian air bases, headquarters and oil facilities as deep as 600 miles inside Russia. To be fair, the Be-200 the Ukrainians plinked at the Yeysk base might not be a navy Be-200. It could be a company plane, one of two the Beriev corporation apparently keeps on its rolls for tests. Beriev has a factory at Yeysk where it builds big jets including the Be-200 and the A-50 radar early warning plane. After shooting down two of the nine or so A-50s in Russian air force service earlier this year, in March the Ukrainians targeted the Beriev factory—apparently hoping to destroy a damaged A-50 at the site. (Source: UAS VISION/Forbes)

16 Apr 24. Ukrainian Forces Seize Advanced Russian Tank Amid Ammunition Shortage. Ukrainian forces successfully captured a Russian T-72 tank, which was equipped with advanced electronic warfare systems intended to jam Ukrainian drones. The operation took place near Terny in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, an area currently under intense conflict due to ongoing hostilities between Ukrainian and Russian forces.

The captured tank, identified as a T-72B3M, first used in 2017, featured multiple electronic warfare systems designed to protect it from drone attacks. Despite these capabilities, Ukrainian drone operators were able to strike the tank with a drone equipped with an autonomous guidance system. The attack did not severely damage the tank but led to the Russian crew abandoning the vehicle.

Following the abandonment, the 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian army took on the task of retrieving the tank. Ukrainian combat engineers first assessed the tank’s condition at night, determining that while the tank’s turret was jammed, its engine appeared functional.

The operation was successful, and the Ukrainian forces were able to drive the tank back to their territory. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

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