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Military And Security Developments
Apr 11.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
• OFFENSIVES: EUCOM Commander has warned that Russian forces could achieve a ten-to-one artillery advantage against Ukraine ‘in a matter of weeks’, as Russian forces make incremental advances west of Bakhmut
• STRIKES: EUCOM warn that Ukraine will run out of air defence interceptor missiles ‘in fairly short order’ without further assistance from the US, which will lead to difficult decisions on allocation of scarce assets, including to Kharkiv
• MOBILISATION: Ukraine’s parliament has passed a new mobilisation bill, which increases penalties for draft dodging and allows for conscription, however, decisions on demobilisation have been postponed
• FORECAST: Russian forces have totally destroyed the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant in Kyiv, underscoring the mounting and cascading pressure Russian strikes are placing on Ukraine’s energy network
• OFFENSIVES: On 10 April, Commander of US European Command (EUCOM) Christopher Cavoli stated that Russian forces currently enjoy a five-to-one artillery advantage against Ukraine, but that this could increase to ten-to-one ‘in a matter of weeks’. The overall military balance broadly remains in Russia’s favour, despite Ukrainian efforts to offset artillery shortages with first-person view (FPV) drones. However, President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged on 10 April that such efforts are limited in their effectiveness and cannot replace air defence systems, long-range missiles and artillery. As such, if Russian forces maintain their current tempo of offensive operations, Ukrainian forces will likely have to make difficult decisions concerning where to allocate personnel and materiel as Russian forces make slow but steady gains throughout the spring.
• BAKHMUT: Geolocated footage from 8 April indicates that Russian forces have successfully advanced into south-western Bohdanivka, located north-west of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage from 10 April also indicates that Russian forces are now highly likely in control of the entire village of Ivanivske, located west of Bakhmut and south-east of Chasiv Yar. This likely remains the key operational objective for Russian forces on this axis at present.
• BAKHMUT: Russian sources have indicated that in order to achieve this aims, the most immediate objective of Russian forces on the Bakhmut axis is to cross the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal, which runs north to south through eastern Chasiv Yar. However, Russian sources have acknowledged that the west bank of the canal has been heavily mined, and, given Chasiv Yar’s elevated position, presents a notable defensive asset for the Ukrainians. Russian sources reported on 9 April that Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have intensified glide bomb attacks in the area, and are currently bombing fortifications in Chasiv Yar with FAB-250 guided glide bombs in support of Russian Airborne (VDV) ground operations.
• DONETSK: On 9 April, a Ukrainian telegram channel reported that Russian forces have recently seized Pervomaiske, located around six miles (10km) to the south-west of Avdiivka. Geolocated footage from 9 April indicates Russian forces raising a flag in western Pervomaiske. Meanwhile, additional footage posted on 10 April indicates Russian forces made marginal advances north-east of Berdychi, located five miles (8km) north-west of Avdiivka.
• KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
• SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
• STRIKES: Reflecting the deteriorating air defence situation in Ukraine, Commander of EUCOM Cavoli stated on 10 April that Ukraine will run out of air defence interceptor missiles ‘in fairly short order’ without further assistance from the US. Additionally, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on 10 April that the current intensity of Russian strikes is forcing Ukrainian forces to reallocate increasingly scarce air defence systems to defend Kharkiv City, which has been under intensifying bombardment for the last month. Such a reorganisation of Ukrainian air defences will stretch these assets further and will likely create vulnerabilities elsewhere across the country Russian forces are likely to exploit these weaknesses. Such vulnerabilities may either be on the frontline, where Russian forces will be able to make greater use of glide bomb attacks and airpower or in rear areas, which will expose civilian population and industrial centres to lethal Russian long-range cruise and ballistic missile attacks.
• STRIKES: Overnight on 9-10 April, Russia attacked Ukraine with 17 Shahed-136/131 drones, two Kh-59 missiles, two Iskandr K-cruise missiles and one Iskandr-M ballistic missile. Ukrainian air defences intercepted 14 drones and the two Kh-59 missiles over Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts. Local authorities reported that an Iskandr-M ballistic missile hit Odesa (Odesa oblast), damaging transport infrastructure.
• STRIKES: Early on 11 April, Russian forces launched a large-scale strike, including 82 projectiles. The attack comprised 20 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles, six Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 12 S-300 missiles, four Kh-59 missiles and 40 Shahed-131/136 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted 16 Kh-101/Kh-555, 39 drones and two Kh-59 missiles.
• STRIKES: The attack targeted energy infrastructure in at least five oblasts, including Kharkiv, Kyiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Zaporizhzhia. In Lviv oblast, a gas distribution infrastructure facility in the Stryi district and an electrical substation in the Chervonohrad district were targeted. The attack clearly reflects Moscow’s strategy to severely degrade Ukraine’s long-term energy security. For further analysis of the impact of these strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, see FORECAST.
• STRIKES: Meanwhile, on 9 April, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries, arguing that they drive global energy market volatility. Austin called on Kyiv to focus on military targets instead. Over the past few weeks, Ukraine has successfully struck various Russian oil refining facilities. These attacks aim to disrupt Russian oil revenues and have succeeded in leaving around 16% of Russia’s total refining capacity offline at the end of March.
• STRIKES: As a result of Ukrainian drone strikes, fears of domestic fuel shortages have led Moscow to increase fuel imports from Belarus and reportedly ask Kazakhstan to be ready to supply 100,000 tonnes of gasoline if needed as a form of strategic reserve. Following the Ukrainian drone attack against Russia’s third-largest oil refinery located in Tatarstan, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil reached USD 89, the highest in six months. This illustrates the detrimental impact of Kyiv’s strikes on global oil prices. Austin’s comments are notable, but Ukraine is unlikely to cease targeting oil sites entirely given how successful the campaign has been thus far at achieving pronounced strategic impact with fairly limited asymmetrical capabilities.
• STRIKES: On 9 April, Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that air defences repelled a drone attack targeting Borisoglebsk (Voronezh oblast). However, Ukraine’s MoD claimed that the drones hit a Russian military aircraft repair plant. Geolocated footage published by Planet Labs likely confirmed that the strike significantly damaged one of the facility’s buildings.
• SABOTAGE: On 8 April, Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) claimed to have disabled a Russian vessel, the Serpukhov, moored at the headquarters of the Russian Baltic Sea Fleet in Kaliningrad oblast (Russia). The alleged attack took place against the Project 21631 Buyan-M class corvette on 7 April. Kaliningrad is a Russian exclave located between Lithuania and Poland on the Baltic Sea coast. The GUR claimed to have initiated the attack by starting a fire onboard the vessel, which allegedly destroyed the Serpukhov’s automation and communications systems.
• SABOTAGE: While we cannot confirm the veracity of the claim, such an act of sabotage outside of the Black Sea theatre of war will be perceived by Moscow as escalatory. The Kremlin will likely conclude that such an attack was (at least indirectly) facilitated by neighbouring countries. If confirmed, there is a realistic possibility that the Kremlin will seek to retaliate using its intelligence networks in Europe to deter further such attacks. This would increase the risk of Russian sabotage campaigns targeting critical infrastructure and defence sites, particularly in the Baltic states and Poland. If Ukrainian forces seek to expand the war to other previously unaffected theatres, spillover risks will moderately increase.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• MOBILISATION: Earlier on 11 April, Ukraine’s parliament passed a mobilisation bill. Some 283 lawmakers voted in favour of the legislation, while 49 opposition lawmakers abstained. The latest bill allows the mobilisation of conscripts to fight for the Ukrainian military and increased penalties for draft dodging. The bill must now be sent to the parliamentary speaker and Zelensky for signing. Zelensky is highly likely to sign the legislation promptly, meaning the new law will most likely enter force in mid-May. Previously, the parliament passed key provisions of an earlier draft law separately, which President Volodymyr Zelensky then signed in early April. These included the lowering of the conscription age to 25 and the cancellation of the category of ‘limited fitness’ for military service (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 4 April 2024).
• MOBILISATION: Notably, a provision allowing demobilisation after 36 months was removed from the bill, further reflecting Ukraine’s need for additional personnel. A spokesperson for Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) disclosed on 10 April that the clause was removed due to the situation on the frontline, noting that the defence forces ‘cannot be weakened now’. The Parliamentary Committee on National Security, Defence and Intelligence removed the provisions on demobilisation and personnel rotation on 9 April at the initiative of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Syrskyi argued that the issue should be considered in separate legislation, which will postpone a decision in the coming months.
• MOBILISATION: Meanwhile, the UK’s Defence Intelligence (DI) reported on 10 April that Russia seeks to recruit an additional 400,000 contract service personnel this year. The DI said this goal is intended to sustain Russian forces in Ukraine and support plans to increase the overall size of the armed forces from an estimated 1.15 m in 2023 to 1.32 m in 2024 and 1.5 m thereafter. According to the DI, conscript soldiers do not fight in Ukraine, but they are commonly pressured to enlist as contract soldiers after serving their 12 month conscription period, whereafter they would become liable to fight. Ultimately, Russian military authorities will likely maintain pressure on conscripts to sign contracts to join the Russian armed forces to bolster personnel without having to call for nationwide mobilisation in the coming months.
• NEGOTIATIONS: Switzerland will host a Ukraine peace conference on 15-16 June in Bürgenstock (Nidwalden canton). The conference reportedly aims to create a concrete roadmap for Russia’s participation in the peace process – which will ultimately be necessary if an end to the war is to be reached. Russia has not been invited to attend the upcoming event, according to Vladimir Khokhlov, the press secretary of Russia’s Embassy in Bern. He added that Moscow would not have attended anyway even if it had received an invitation.
• NEGOTIATIONS: Khokhlov said Ukraine’s visions for peace are not viable and do not consider Russia’s interests. It remains highly unlikely that either side will engage in genuine peace negotiations in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, the event likely aims to rally as many countries as possible behind Kyiv’s conditions for ending the war when the time comes for such discussions. It will also likely test the willingness of various partners to consider future Russian participation in such talks.
FORECAST
ENERGY: Russian strikes overnight on 10-11 April destroyed the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant (TPP), operated by Ukraine’s state energy company Centrenergo, in the city of Ukrainka in Kyiv oblast. Centrenergo reported that the attack against the plant has now destroyed the company’s generation capacity. This was the company’s third and last facility; Russia previously destroyed Centrenergo’s Zmiivska TPP in Kharkiv oblast in March, while another power station in Donetsk oblast has been under Russian occupation since July 2022.
The Trypilska TPP was the largest supplier of electricity in Cherkasy, Kyiv and Zhytomyr oblasts, meaning that energy insecurity is likely to increase in these regions. Centrenergo did not specify if or when any efforts would be taken to repair the facility. However, the head of the supervisory board of the company, Andriy Hota, said the scale of the destruction is ‘terrible’ and poses the biggest challenge of the corporation’s entire history. Ultimately, we assess that the recent trend of strikes indicates that Russian forces are likely increasingly focusing their efforts on damaging TPPs. The level of destruction and effectiveness of the strikes are, in some instances, causing more profound problems for Ukraine’s energy system than those seen during the 2022-2023 winter strike campaign.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, reported on 11 April that Russian forces seriously damaged two of its TPPs in unspecified locations. According to the company, Russian forces have targeted TPPs operated by DTEK almost 170 times since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. DTEK had disclosed that Russian attacks in March damaged or completely destroyed 80% of the company’s thermal generating capacity. This aligns with our assessment that Russia likely seeks to cause maximum permanent damage to Ukrainian infrastructure as part of its ongoing strike campaign (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 8 April 2024).
The CEO of DTEK, Maxim Timchenko, assessed in an interview on 8 April that it will cost USD 230 m to restore damaged TPPs after Russian strikes in March, demonstrating the high expense of attacks. Timchenko said the cost of the repairs is almost twice as much as those incurred during the previous winter, when Russian forces regularly targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure. According to him, the main bulk of the cost is centred on the purchase of transformers. He claimed that the fastest way to find parts to repair the facilities is to bring them from other Eastern European countries where there are closed TPPs from the era of the Soviet Union. Timchenko said that DTEK has sent staff to the Baltic States, Bulgaria and Romania to negotiate a deal for equipment, though there are still unused available parts in Ukraine also.
*Austria: Russian intelligence operations highly likely to persist despite potential counter-legislation. Late on 9 April, Austria’s National Security Council convened to discuss the threat posed by Russian espionage as well as the country’s wider security landscape. The meeting was convened after former intelligence officer Egisto Ott was arrested for spying for Russia. The 86-page arrest warrant against Ott points to extensive Russian infiltration in Austria. The allegations also shine further light on the role played by former Chief Operating Officer (COO) at Wirecard, Jan Marsalek, in co-ordinating Russian intelligence operations in Europe. The content of the 9 April discussions is confidential. However, Vienna has indicated it will legislate to tighten Austria’s notoriously lax spy laws to make espionage directed against non-Austrian interests a punishable offence. Chancellor Karl Nehammer has also called for increased surveillance powers for the security services. While these measures would help bolster Austria’s resilience, the country, and particularly the capital Vienna, will highly likely remain a key European hub from which Russian intelligence interests operate in their attempts to promote Russian interests within the EU.
*Russia: International sanctions, domestic pressures will sustain long-term inflationary pressure. On 10 April, Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia’s Central Bank (CBR), told Duma lawmakers that the country’s inflation peak had passed. However, Nabiullina noted that the CBR will only start lowering interest rates, currently at 16%, when ‘the slowdown in inflation has reached the required speed’. Although the CBR’s Inflation target is 4%, Nabiullina’s comments reflect the CBR’s caution about the country’s inflation trajectory. Inflation has been an enduring challenge for Russia’s economy since the beginning of the war, reaching an annual rate of 7.4% in 2023. International trade restrictions due to Western sanctions and domestic pressures, including labour shortages and increased government spending, likely account for this sustained inflationary pressure. Given that these factors are linked to the war in Ukraine, which is expected to protract, moderately high inflation levels will likely continue to constrain Russia’s economy throughout 2024.
Apr 09.
*Europe-Eurasia: Alleged Ukrainian attack in Kaliningrad increases risk of Russian sabotage. On 8 April, Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) claimed to have disabled a Russian vessel, the Serpukhov, moored at the headquarters of the Russian Baltic Sea Fleet in Kaliningrad oblast (Russia). The alleged attack took place on 7 April. Kaliningrad is a Russian exclave located between Lithuania and Poland on the Baltic Sea coast. The GUR claims to have carried out the attack by starting a fire onboard the vessel. While we cannot confirm the veracity of the claim, such an act of sabotage in Kaliningrad will be perceived by Moscow as escalatory. The Kremlin will likely conclude that such an attack was (at least indirectly) facilitated by neighbouring countries. If confirmed, there is a realistic possibility that the Kremlin will seek to retaliate using its intelligence networks in Europe to deter further such attacks. This would increase the risk of Russian sabotage campaigns targeting critical infrastructure such as energy and telecommunication assets, and also defence sites, particularly in the Baltic states and Poland.
Apr 08.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS (click on each to navigate below):
• OFFENSIVES: Ukraine expects Russia’s summer offensive to prioritise operations in Donetsk oblast, with ammunition and air defence shortages limiting Ukraine’s ability to disrupt Russian preparations
• STRIKES: Ukrainian forces conducted four simultaneous drone strikes against Russian military sites, including multiple airfields; however, it remains unclear if Russian strategic bombers and other aircraft were hit, as Kyiv claims
• AID: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine will lose the war if the US Congress continues to withhold aid
• FORECAST: Russian forces have changed their striking tactics against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, significantly increasing the damage inflicted on specific sites, which will have knock-on impacts across Ukraine’s energy system
• OFFENSIVES: On 7 April, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) Kyrylo Budanov stated that Ukraine expects Russia to intensify offensive operations in late spring and early summer. Budanov stated that the expected summer offensive will likely see Russian forces focus on the Donbas, with the primary objectives including advancing to Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) and beyond, towards Pokrovsk (a notable Ukrainian logistics hub located 27 miles (43km) north-west of Avdiivka). While it remains unlikely that Russian forces will be able to take Poktrovsk this summer, based on the slow rate of advances we’ve seen over the last two years, the hub will likely remain a key Russian objective, since it would allow Russian forces to seriously undermine Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) across Donetsk oblast.
• OFFENSIVES: President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on 6 April that Ukraine does not have enough ammunition to initiate or even plan for counter-offensive operations, which he deems necessary to contain Russian offensives. Zelensky also stated that Ukraine is relying upon drones to partially mitigate the current artillery shortages. We assess that this offers only a limited counter to Russia’s current advantages. Ukrainian officials, cited by the New York Times on 5 April, reiterated that, across the frontline, Russia enjoys a five-to-one artillery advantage over Ukraine. As such, Russian forces will likely retain the battlefield initiative for the foreseeable future, given Ukraine currently does not have the capabilities to contest the initiative, or even plan for counter-offensives or disruptive actions due to uncertainty surrounding the prospect of future Western aid.
• BAKHMUT: On 5 April, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that increased Russian assaults have intensified pressure east of Chasiv Yar (Donetsk oblast), as well as to the west of Avdiivka (Donetsk oblast). Syrskyi confirmed that Russian forces are launching numerous platoon-, company- and even battalion-sized infantry assaults along numerous axes, with the growing use of mechanised forces also increasing pressure in these directions. While Ukrainian defences are largely continuing to hold, if the tempo of these attacks remains high, Ukrainian forces could realistically be forced to retreat to preserve personnel. This possibility is exacerbated by growing artillery and air defence munitions shortages.
• BAKHMUT: Russian forces have stepped up the intensity of attacks west of Bakhmut in recent weeks, including launching a company-sized mechanised attack against Chasiv Yar on 4 April. Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces attempted to gain a foothold in the eastern outskirts of the settlement, but were unable to maintain this temporary presence (if it was achieved). Ukrainian sources claim their forces destroyed 19 out of 32 Russian armoured vehicles involved in the attack, but this is unconfirmed. Further attacks are likely in the coming days, as Chasiv Yar appears to be a primary objective for Russian forces. With Russia’s high use of glide bomb attacks in this sector, the defending Ukrainians are under mounting pressure, particularly amid shortages of high-explosive artillery shells needed to repel armoured vehicles. Meanwhile, further north, Russian sources claimed that their forces took the village of Bohdanivka (Donetsk oblast), located around two miles (3km) north-east of Chasiv Yar’s outskirts. However, this remains unconfirmed.
• DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 5 April shows that Russian forces conducted a reinforced platoon-sized mechanised assault, which achieved advances in southern Semenivka (Donetsk Oblast), located six miles (10km) north-west of Avdiivka. Additional footage posted on 6 April indicates Russian forces conducted another company-sized mechanised assault, making progress south-west of Umanske (Donetsk oblast), located around ten miles (16km) west of Avdiivka. Such attacks reflect the intensification of mechanised assaults across Donetsk oblast, where Russia had previously relied upon infantry-led assaults over the past few months. Geolcated footage from 7 April similarly indicates Russian advances north-west of Pervomaiske (Donetsk oblast), located around six miles (10km) to the south-west of Avdiivka. A prominent milblogger claimed that Russian forces control 80% of the settlement; such claims likely reflect the operational situation of Russian progress within Pervomaiske.
• KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
• SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
• STRIKES: On the night of 5 April, Russia launched two S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles, three Iskandr-M ballistic missiles and 13 Shahed-131/136 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted 13 drones over Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
• STRIKES: On 6 April, Russian forces launched 32 Shahed-136/131 drones, three S-300 missiles, two Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and one Kalibr cruise missile. Ukrainian air defences destroyed two Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, a Kalibr cruise missile and 28 Shahed-131/136 strike UAVs. Media outlets reported that Russian ballistic missiles struck a utility facility and an administrative building in Odesa oblast. In the capital Kyiv, air defences reportedly intercepted all the projectiles targeting the city.
• STRIKES: Early on 7 April, Russia launched a Kh-31 missile, one Iskandr-M ballistic missile and 17 Shahed 131/136 drones. Ukrainian forces downed all the drones over Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Poltava oblasts, but no missiles were reportedly intercepted. The strike reportedly hit the centre of Kharkiv (Kharkiv oblast).
• STRIKES: Overnight on 7-8 April, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with one Kh-59 missile and 24 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted the missile and 17 drones over Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Zhytomyr oblasts. Local media reports indicate that a drone hit a logistics and transport facility in Odesa oblast. The attack also reportedly damaged civilian infrastructure in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
• STRIKES: Meanwhile, quoting sources within Ukrainian security services, Ukrainian media outlets reported that, early on 5 April, Ukrainian forces co-ordinated a successful drone attack against four Russian military airfields in Russia simultaneously. The airfields included an airbase near Kursk City (Kursk oblast), another airbase near Yeysk (Krasnodar Krai), the Engels Airbase in Saratov oblast, and the Morozovsk Airbase in Rostov oblast. The sources reportedly claimed that the attack damaged three Tu-95MS strategic bombers at Engels airfield, four Su-25 fixed-wing aircraft and one amphibious aircraft at the airbase near Yeysk, destroyed six unidentified aircraft and damaged eight unidentified aircraft at the Morozovsk airfield.
• STRIKES: However, satellite imagery of the Morozovsk airfield since the attack has shown no indication of any aircraft having been damaged, with the runway still seemingly operational. As such, the claimed success of these attacks cannot be confirmed. There is also no indication that any Tu-95MS aircraft have been damaged. Nevertheless, if they have, it would represent a notable attack, given they are used to launch Kh-101/555 cruise missiles against Ukraine (which have remained amongst the most heavily-utilised and effective missiles in the theatre). Russia reportedly has only 60 such strategic bombers.
• STRIKES: Nevertheless, the ability for Ukraine to co-ordinate four simultaneous attacks against strategic infrastructure military facilities deep into Russian territory illustrates the growing effectiveness and capability of Kyiv’s asymmetric striking strategy. Degrading Russian aviation capabilities, particularly bombers and multi-role aircraft, will likely remain a key military objective for Ukraine given Moscow’s growing use of glide bombs to support ground operations on the frontline. Such long-range operations likely remain Ukraine’s only operational-level response to undermine these glide bomb attacks – despite Zelensky’s assertion on 6 April that Ukraine is currently developing unspecified counter-measures to Russian KAB guided glide bombs.
• STRIKES: On 6 April, Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) reported an explosion at a Russian pipeline near the village of Azov (Rostov oblast). According to the GUR, the pipeline transported oil from the local oil depot to tankers for military purposes. The GUR did not claim responsibility for the attack, but we assess that Kyiv is likely responsible.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• AID: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on 7 April that Ukraine will lose the war if the US Congress continues to withhold aid. Zelensky implied that it would be ‘difficult’ for Ukraine to survive without the provision of further assistance and claimed that Russia may feel empowered to attack other countries if it wins the conflict. Zelensky has implored Congress to approve an aid package over the past few months, with the latest calls reflecting sustained concerns that faltering support from Washington DC could undermine the prospect of a Ukrainian victory.
• AID: On 6 April, Zelensky assessed that Ukraine needs 25 Patriot air defence systems with up to eight batteries each to completely shield the country from Russian strikes. He did not disclose, however, how many of the systems Ukraine currently has in its arsenal. Ultimately, such demands are highly unlikely to be provided by Ukraine’s Western partners, given 25 Patriot systems would represent almost half the current stocks available to the US. Nevertheless, Zelensky said that if Russia continues its high-intensity bombardments, Ukraine may not have enough equipment to offer a counter. Air defence shortages are becoming an increasingly acute problem for Ukraine, with deficiencies reducing the likelihood of strikes being successfully intercepted, increasing the lethality of Russian strikes across the country.
• US: Reports emerged on 7 April that former US president Donald Trump, who is seeking re-election this year, has privately said he could end the war by pressuring Ukraine to cede territory to Russia. According to sources familiar with the issue, Trump’s plan allegedly involves pushing Kyiv to cede Russian-annexed Crimea and Donbas regions (Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts). Trump previously claimed that he could end the war within 24 hours as president, but has provided no details as to how. While the veracity of the reports cannot be confirmed, a second Trump presidency would likely be less beneficial for Kyiv if and when the time eventually arises for negotiations to end the war. Ukraine would highly unlikely to welcome Trump’s proposal, given Kyiv’s public commitment to reclaiming all Russian-occupied lands. Ultimately, neither side is currently prepared to entertain painful concessions, and it remains unclear when/if this will change.
• NUCLEAR: On 7 April, Russia accused Ukraine of striking the Zaporizhzhia (Zaporizhzhia oblast) Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) three times with drones, though Kyiv denied any involvement. According to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, it was the first time the facility had been directly targeted since November 2022. The IAEA said the strike had not compromised the nuclear safety of the sixth power reactor, but assessed that this was a serious incident with the potential to undermine the integrity of the reactor’s containment system. The IAEA has not attributed blame for the strike, but called on both sides to refrain from attacks against the plant. While a notable strike, the incident does not change our assessment of the safety at the plant; a catastrophic meltdown at the plant remains highly unlikely in the short-to-medium term.
• CHINA: Bloomberg reported on 6 April that China has provided Russia with satellite imagery for military purposes, micro-electronics and machine tools for tanks. According to an unspecified insider, Beijing’s support also includes, optics, propellants to be used in missiles and increased space co-operation. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly briefed European partners last week on China’s assistance to Russia and the need to do more to curtail it. Sanctions against firms involved in or suspected of facilitating such deals are likely. The reports will almost certainly sustain criticism of China’s self-proclaimed neutrality on the war, though Beijing remains unlikely to provide Russia lethal aid for use in Ukraine.
FORECAST
ENERGY: Earlier on 8 April, the Financial Times (FT) reported that Russian forces have changed tactics when targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure. This includes using precision missiles to destroy power stations in regions less protected than the capital Kyiv, some of which cannot be fully repaired by next winter. The reported change in tactics indicates that Russia likely seeks to cause maximum permanent damage to facilities with the aim of driving longer-term energy insecurity, as well as undermining Ukraine’s military-industrial production and resiliency. This likely remains the key military objective of the current strike campaign.
According to Maxim Timchenko, the CEO of Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, Russian missiles are targeting power plants in certain regions to destroy them entirely as it is not possible to rebuild these stations quickly. As such, this marks a shift in methods from Russia’s previous 2022-2023 winter strike campaign, during which Russian forces mostly targeted switchyards and transformers across Ukraine. Timchenko stated that warm weather, energy imports from the EU and an increase in renewable energy generation spared Ukraine from widespread blackouts as in 2022-23.
At the same time, Russia is now using expensive precision ballistic missiles to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure, of which they have limited stocks. However, drones are still used in large numbers to strike other parts of the energy system. A spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) assessed that Moscow has enough missiles for one or two large-scale attacks in the coming weeks, which indicates that this change in tactics is unlikely to be sustainable. Nevertheless, Ukrainian energy minister German Galushchenko reiterated on 6 April that Ukraine needs advanced air defence systems to protect its energy infrastructure from Russian bombardment, and, given growing air defence shortages, the impact of Russian strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure is likely to increase in the medium term if Western aid is further delayed.
Although Ukrainian officials have said the recent damage to energy infrastructure is not as widespread as in the winter of 2022-3, the damage inflicted is worse and appears to be aimed at rendering facilities irreparable. According to the head of communications at Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s national grid operator, the same number of missiles used in the previous strike campaign are now being directed at a handful of energy facilities in one region. This aims at cutting off large industrial regions and cities from their power supply. The Ukrenergo employee also said it is very difficult, ‘if not impossible’, to protect large power plants which take several months or even years to repair. Kharkiv in particular is currently under intense and regular bombardment, though other cities across Ukraine are likely to experience worsening energy insecurity if Russian forces maintain their current strike strategy.
*Armenia-Azerbaijan: Increasing frequency of border clashes reflects growing escalation risk. On 5-7 April, Armenia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported at least three instances when Azerbaijani forces fired on Armenian positions. According to the Armenian authorities, Azerbaijani troops opened fire in several directions along the two countries’ frontier, including in Gegharkunik, Syunik and Tavush provinces (all Armenia). Concurrently, the Azerbaijani MoD reported that its positions, including in the Nakhchivan exclave, came under bombardment in the same period. The MoD also claimed that, on 5 April, Armenian forces fired upon Azerbaijani units stationed in various regions 30 times. The frequency of alleged provocations over the 5-7 April weekend marks an uptick in cross-border hostilities in recent weeks; both sides typically intermittently report incidents. Notably, Azerbaijani officials have begun reporting incidents of ceasefire violations in notably high quantities. Further provocations will increase the risk of a resumption of conflict in the coming weeks and months, particularly as border delimitation and demarcation negotiations remain stalled. (Source: Sibylline)
13 Apr 24. Germany to send new Patriot air defence system to Kyiv at ‘critical time’, Zelenskiy says. Germany will supply a U.S.-made Patriot air defence system and air defence missiles to Ukraine at a “critical time” as Kyiv struggles to defend its energy system from Russian bombardment, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday.
More than two years into its full-scale invasion, Russia has staged three massive airstrikes on power stations and substations in recent weeks, prompting Kyiv to issue desperate appeals for supplies of high-end air defences.
“Germany will deliver an additional Patriot air defence system to Ukraine,” Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on X, a reminder that Germany is now a key backer of Ukraine with U.S. assistance stuck in Congress.
“We stand steadfast on the side of Ukraine,” Scholz said, adding that Zelenskiy had informed him in a telephone call on Saturday about “massive Russian air attacks on civilian energy infrastructure”.
Germany’s ambassador to Ukraine, Martin Jaeger, said on X: “Other international partners must follow quickly now.”
Zelenskiy said on the Telegram messaging app that he was grateful to Scholz for the decision to supply another, additional Patriot system, and missiles for existing air defence systems.
Later in his nightly video address, Zelenskiy indicated talks were under way about expanding German transfers of another air defence system, though German officials did not reference this in their remarks.
“We are also working with Germany on an additional IRIS-T system, which is also a strong air defence system, and on missiles for our existing air defence systems,” Zelenskiy said in his video address.
Jaeger, the German ambassador, said the delivery would bring the number of German Patriot systems in Ukraine to three and add to existing IRIS-T and Gepard air defence systems that were “also here & doing a great job”.
Zelenskiy described his conversation with Scholz as “important, productive” and said: “I call on all other leaders of partner states to follow this example.”
A German government spokesperson said the two leaders discussed measures to further strengthen Ukraine’s air defence. “They agreed that further efforts by partners were necessary,” a statement read.
Germany will hand over the Patriot system immediately and it will be in addition to air defence systems that were already delivered and planned, the defence ministry said on X.
An April 10 German government summary of arms and military equipment transfers to Ukraine included two Patriot systems, 52 Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, one IRIS-T SLS and three IRIS-T SLM air defence systems as having already been delivered.
It said another 15 Gepard anti-aircraft guns, nine IRIS-T SLM and 11 IRIS-T SLS air defence systems were being planned or executed.
Zelenskiy said last week that Ukraine needed 25 of the U.S.-made Patriot air defence systems to cover the country from Russian attacks.
In his statement on Telegram on Saturday, the Ukrainian leader said he and Scholz also discussed preparations for a reconstruction conference in Berlin and a peace summit in Switzerland in June.
The German government spokesman said Scholz had promised Germany would “actively support Switzerland’s initiative for a high-level international peace conference and would work towards the broadest possible global participation”.
Russia has said such a meeting would be pointless if it did not participate. Kyiv has said Russia would not be invited.
The German spokesman said Scholz and Zelenskiy had agreed to continue “intensive cooperation” ahead of a June 11-12 Ukraine Reconstruction Reference scheduled to take place in Berlin. (Source: Google/Reuters)
13 Apr 24. Ukraine’s top commander warned that his outmanned and outgunned army is struggling to halt a multipronged and intensifying Russian offensive, as Kyiv pleads with western partners for more air defences and a critical military aid package remains stalled in the US Congress. “The situation on the eastern front has significantly worsened in recent days,” Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky wrote on Telegram during a visit to the eastern Donetsk region on Saturday. He said a “significant intensification of the enemy’s offensive actions” along the 1,000km southeastern frontline was a direct result of Russian President Vladimir Putin becoming emboldened following his recent re-election. Ukrainian and western officials have told the Financial Times that Russia may be gearing up for a large-scale attack in late spring or summer in hopes of capturing more of the regions of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. The Kremlin partly occupies these areas, which Putin illegally claimed to have annexed in September 2022. Officials in Kyiv are also concerned that Moscow might be planning an assault on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city in the north-east. It is mobilising hundreds of thousands of forces and pummelling the city with rockets in preparation. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this week warned of his country’s diminishing air defence capabilities after massive Russian missile and drones strikes hit Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Ukrainian officials have asked western partners for more Patriot and SAMP/T air defence systems and munitions but were rebuffed. “The enemy is actively attacking our positions in the Lyman [and] Bakhmut directions with assault groups and the support of armoured vehicles,” Syrsky said, referring to strategically important areas of eastern Ukraine. “In the Pokrovsk direction, it is trying to break through our defences using dozens of tanks and [infantry fighting vehicles].” Syrsky said the “warm, dry weather, which has made most of the open areas of the terrain accessible to tanks” has aided Russia’s advance. Russia’s main effort is focused around the mining city of Chasiv Yar, which sits atop a hill just 15km west of Bakhmut, the city destroyed and occupied by Russian soldiers and Wagner mercenaries nearly a year ago after a grinding 11-month fight. Videos shared on Telegram by Russian military bloggers showed “glide bombs” and heavy artillery pounding Ukrainian positions and flattening apartment buildings in Chasiv Yar. “This will likely be an important battle. Chasiv Yar is located on defensible high ground,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia programme. “If Russia takes the city, they could potentially increase the rate of advance deeper into Donetsk [region] as part of an expected summer offensive.” Yuriy Fedorenko, commander of the “Achilles” drone battalion, told the Financial Times last week that Ukrainian troops were outgunned by at least five artillery shells to one but had no choice except to fight. Speaking near Chasiv Yar, he said losing the town would allow Russian troops “fire control” of the nearby strategic cities of Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk and give them a foothold from which they could launch attacks. Deep State, a Ukrainian analytical group that monitors the battlefield, said on Saturday that Russian troops had reached a canal that separates Chasiv Yar’s eastern and western districts but had not yet crossed it. The group suggested that a fierce battle for the city loomed, writing that “the coming weeks will bring a lot of unpleasant and difficult news”. “The enemy is gathering reserves for the Battle of Chasiv Yar,” said Deep State, which is close to Ukraine’s defence ministry. Lee said that “immediate increased deliveries of ammunition could prove critical” for Ukrainian forces. Syrsky said he was taking “all the necessary measures” to stabilise the situation and to “increase the effectiveness of our troops’ actions, and inflict maximum losses on enemy units”. “Despite significant losses the enemy is increasing its efforts by using new units on armoured vehicles, thanks to which it periodically achieves tactical success,” he said. Syrsky said he had ordered “the most problematic areas of the defence” to be strengthened with air defence and electronic warfare systems. “Also, stocks of drones of all types, anti-tank missiles were replenished, additional reserves of forces and means were moved,” he said. The only way to defeat Russia’s larger and more powerful army and create conditions for seizing the strategic initiative on the battlefield is to achieve technical superiority with “high-tech weapons”, Syrsky said. Those, he suggested, should come from western partners. Even then, he admitted, Ukraine will still face the challenges of mobilising enough troops for the fight and providing them with sufficient training. “The second serious problem is to improve the quality of training of military personnel, primarily infantry units, so that they can make maximum use of all the capabilities of military equipment and western weapons,” Syrsky said. The German government is to give Ukraine another Patriot system, according to a statement by the defence ministry on Saturday. It will come from Bundeswehr stocks and will be passed to Ukraine immediately. So far Germany has provided Ukraine with two Patriot systems. “Russia’s terror against Ukrainian cities and the country’s infrastructure is leading to immeasurable suffering,” said Boris Pistorius, the German defence minister. It was, he said, endangering the civilian energy supply and destroying industrial plants that were necessary for the operational readiness of the Ukrainian armed forces. “We are supporting Ukraine as much as our own operational readiness will allow,” Pistorius said.
(Source: FT.com)
12 Apr 24. US says China is boosting Russia’s war machine in Ukraine. China is backing Russia’s war effort in Ukraine by helping Moscow in its biggest military buildup since the Soviet era, providing drone and missile technology, satellite imagery and machine tools, senior U.S. officials said on Friday. However, the Chinese Embassy in the U.S. said it has not provided weaponry to any party, adding that it is “not a producer of or party involved in the Ukraine crisis.”
The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said U.S. President Joe Biden raised the issue with Chinese President Xi Jinping in their recent phone call and that it is a topic of discussion with U.S. allies in Europe and around the world.
One official said Chinese materials are filing critical gaps in Russia’s defense production cycle and helping Moscow undertake its “most ambitious defense expansion since the Soviet era and on a faster timeline than we believed possible early on in this conflict.”
“Our view is that one of the most game-changing moves available to us at this time to support Ukraine is to persuade the PRC (China) to stop helping Russia reconstitute its military industrial base. Russia would struggle to sustain its war effort without PRC input,” the official said.
A Chinese embassy spokesperson told Reuters that normal trade between China and Russia should not be interfered or restricted.
“We urge the U.S. side to refrain from disparaging and scapegoating the normal relationship between China and Russia,” Liu Pengyu said.
Some of the information provided by the U.S. officials in a small briefing with reporters was based on declassified intelligence. They sketched a wide array of ways China is helping Russia’s two-year war against Ukraine without providing lethal assistance.
President Joe Biden has been pressuring Republicans who control the U.S. House of Representatives to approve a major infusion of funding for providing weapons to Ukraine as it struggles to fend off the Russians.
The U.S. and its allies have also been more blunt about confronting Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and against self-ruled Taiwan.
China complained about what it viewed as anti-China rhetoric emanating from Biden’s talks this week with the leaders of Japan and the Philippines, prompting a denial from the White House.
The Russians have likely used machine tool imports from China to increase its ballistic missile production, the officials said. They cited Dalian Machine Tool Group, one of China’s leading machine tool manufacturers, as one company supplying Russia.
In 2023, 90% of Russia’s microelectronics imports came from China, which Russia has used to produce missiles, tanks and aircraft, the officials said.
They said that Chinese companies such as Wuhan Global Sensor Technology Co, Wuhan Tongsheng Technology Co Ltd and Hikvision (002415.SZ), opens new tab are providing Chinese optical components for use in Russian systems, including tanks and armored vehicles.
In addition, Russia has received military optics for tanks and armored vehicles that Chinese firms iRay Technology (688301.SS), opens new tab and North China Research Institute of Electro-Optics manufacture, they said.
The officials also said China has provided Russia with drone engines and turbojet engines for cruise missiles, and that Chinese and Russian entities have been working to jointly produce drones inside Russia.
Chinese companies are likely providing Russia with nitrocellulose to make propellants for weapons, helping Russia rapidly expand its capacity to make key munitions like artillery rounds, they added.
The U.S. officials also said China is helping Russia improve its satellite and other space-based capabilities for use in Ukraine, increasing the Russian threat across Europe. And they said the U.S. has information China is providing imagery to Russia for its war on Ukraine.
(Source: Reuters)
12 Apr 24. European capitals have rebuffed demands from Kyiv to send their air defence systems to Ukraine, after a week of relentless missile and drone bombardments from Russia that destroyed critical energy plants in the war-torn country. Ukraine has long warned that it needed urgent air defence supplies to protect itself against an overwhelming number of Russian rockets targeting the country’s power and heating infrastructure. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stepped up pleas this week for US-made Patriot batteries, castigating Kyiv’s western partners for “turning a blind eye” as the capital region saw the destruction of its largest power plant. Speaking at the Three Seas summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius on Thursday, he said Ukraine had fallen into a “routine” in which it suffers Russian air attacks and then pleads for more air defences from western partners who promise to provide them but have failed to deliver. “Missiles are striking every day, and every day we hear that Ukraine will receive new air defence systems. Every day Russian terrorists cut off the electricity to Kharkiv and our other cities, and every day we hear that new aid is coming soon,” Zelenskyy said. “The reality must finally match the words.” From left: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Gitanas Nausėda and Andrej Duda, the presidents of Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland respectively, at the Three Seas summit in Vilnius on Thursday © Mindaugas Kulbis/AP Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, said this week it was “inconceivable” that western countries could not provide seven extra Patriot batteries to Ukraine, given that they had about 100 in their arsenal they could spare. Kyiv is lobbying for Patriot systems in Poland, Romania and Spain to be sent to Ukraine, two people familiar with the talks told the Financial Times. “They only need seven,” one person said. “But it’s complicated.” European capitals have said that they do not have plans to send more systems to Ukraine, arguing that they need to retain defence capabilities. Germany has given two Patriot systems to Ukraine but made clear this week that it would not provide any more. “We will not be able to offer any more systems for the time being,” the defence ministry said on Monday. That stance has angered some in the opposition Christian Democratic Union. Norbert Röttgen, a CDU MP and member of the Bundestag foreign affairs committee, has said Berlin could give Ukraine two more Patriot systems, especially as those lent to Poland and Slovakia had now been returned. “That would make a real difference for the people in and around Kharkiv,” he said on X. “It would save lives.” German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock last week told lawmakers in the Bundestag that talks were ongoing with other partners, in Europe and worldwide, to find spare Patriot systems. “There are actors worldwide that have the systems,” she said. “They don’t want to give them directly [to Ukraine], but via third parties. That’s something we’re working on intensively to try to achieve that as quickly as possible.” She explained that eastern European Nato countries still had defence requirements which meant that “Germany can’t and shouldn’t simply say we’re going to take this air defence system out” without consulting privately with their governments. Recommended War in Ukraine: military strategies Military briefing: Russian ‘glide bombs’ pound Ukrainian troops and towns The Ukrainian demands have put a spotlight on strategic minimum levels of defence capabilities, and whether European Nato states would decide to drop below what they have determined is the minimum amount required to defend their states in order to send equipment to Ukraine. “I would say that any decision on going below strategic stock levels lies heavily in the hands of our defence forces and our military and should always remain confidential,” Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said this week when asked if he thought other countries should send more weapons to Ukraine. The Polish military has insisted it cannot spare Patriots for Ukraine at a time when it is itself waiting for US deliveries after Washington last June approved a Polish order worth $15bn for Patriots and related equipment. While also in Vilnius on Thursday, Polish President Andrzej Duda ruled out supplying Patriot systems. Instead, Duda said there was still a possibility it could transfer more of its Soviet-built missiles to Kyiv, without specifying which and how many. “In Poland, we’re just starting to build the Patriot anti-missile defence system, this system in Poland is not ready yet, so we have nothing to donate, even if we wanted to,” Duda said. (Source: FT.com)
11 Apr 24. Ukrainian soldiers recover Russian electronic warfare tank in minefield close to enemy.
The Russian T-72B3M had had a field conversion carried out so it could counter drones – it was crude, but apparently effective (Picture: Azov)
Ukrainian soldiers have managed to recover an unusual Russian tank following a three-day operation in the middle of a minefield – apparently just 400m away from the enemy.
The Russian T-72B3M had had a field conversion carried out so it could counter Ukrainian drones by jamming their signal.
The apparatus added to the top of the tank looked crude, but had apparently been effective, disabling four Ukrainian drones before the tank itself became immobilised.
Drone footage released by the Ukrainian Azov Brigade shows two soldiers from the unit, identified only as Tenor and Baydar, boarding the abandoned tank, revving its engine and steering it towards Ukrainian-held territory.
Failed assault
The recovery operation took place a few days after a failed Russian armoured assault near the village of Terny in the Donetsk region.
Images taken by the nearby 95th Air Assault Brigade showed the Russian armoured column coming under heavy fire, with at least 11 vehicles reportedly disabled or destroyed in the ambush.
The electronic wafare tank, identified as a late-model T-72B3M which was subsequently nicknamed the ‘Tsar’, sustained damage during the fighting, but was eventually brought back to Ukrainian lines.
A YouTube video released by the Azov Brigade showed Tenor and Baydar explaining how they carried out the operation to snag the tank.
And a post by Astraia Intel on X said the mission took place just 400m away from Russian forces.
Night-time recce
The company commander and the battalion commander told Tenor and Baydar that they were going on a mission to bring back the T-72B3M,
In addition to the weirdly added electronic warfare kit, which was used to provide anti-drone cover for the Russian mechanised unit, it was also equipped with night vision gear – making it a very useful vehicle to recover.
“If it needs to be done, let’s go,” said Baydar. The mission required numerous personnel to do some careful planning, but just the two soldiers to actually carry out the operation.
Sappers carried out an initial recce to determine exactly how the tank had been knocked out. This had to be done from the ground as the aerial perspective from a drone did not provide enough information.
They found one of the tank’s tracks had become tangled in wire, causing it to crash into a BMP infantry fighting vehicle.
The crew decided to try to escape, which Tenor said had been a mistake as they all ended up being killed.
On the second night of the operation, the Ukrainian soldiers managed to enter the tank and untangle the wire, all the while being careful not to detonate a TM-62 mine that was right under the vehicle.
The Russian crew had left the electrics on, draining the batteries, which meant Tenor and Baydar could not get it to start.
They made the decision to come back the following night with batteries and compressed air tanks so they could get the T-72B3M to run.
The recovery
Driving through the village the tank encountered potholes that were big enough to stop a tank in its tracks. Baydar drove into a deep crater and the impact threw him against the hatch, knocking him out momentarily.
Half-conscious and with a bloody nose, Baydar had to manoeuvre the tank out of the hole.
“If the engine wasn’t so powerful, we wouldn’t have got out,” explained Tenor.
The soldiers were later informed that 35 shells had hit the village as they were driving through it.
Having reached safety, the pair were shocked by the equipment that had been left inside the tank, including spare periscopes and night vision goggles.
Tenor chalked up the success of the mission to his training, saying it was like he was running on autopilot.
“It’s not the first time I’ve encountered such a situation, where you realise that ahead of you there’s a challenge, some danger and everything else, but you understand that you need to do it, it’s necessary and you just do it,” he explained.
The captured T-72 will be fully repaired and integrated into the Azov Brigade’s tank battalion, where it will serve as a potent weapon against its former owners. (Source: Forces.net)
11 Apr 24. The Ukrainian parliament has adopted a long-debated law on mobilisation as the country struggles to replenish its forces more than two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion. Ukraine is in desperate need of new recruits, with the military leadership having estimated that hundreds of thousands of men are needed to replace casualties and servicemen who have been on the front since the war began. The law comes at a critical point in Ukraine’s defence against Russian forces, which are regaining the initiative on the battlefield with more weaponry and men than Kyiv can muster. Moscow has also intensified its aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities in a bid to overwhelm its rapidly depleting air defences. The bill includes better pay and longer leave periods but lawmakers failed to agree on setting a hard deadline to the time soldiers spend on the battlefield — a core demand from families of those deployed and a significant factor for potential recruits to shun military service. “The main question for those serving and those who might be potentially mobilised [is] ‘how long will I serve?’ Without this, I don’t think the law will improve mobilisation,” said Oleksiy Goncharenko, an opposition MP from the European Solidarity party. (Source: FT.com)
11 Apr 24. Ukrainian Special Operations Forces Engage Russian Soldiers Using FPV Drones. Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces (SSO) fighters successfully targeted Russian military personnel and equipment in the Donetsk region, employing FPV drones. According to a statement released on the SSO’s Telegram channel, the operation led to the elimination of nine Russian soldiers and injuries to four others. Additionally, the Ukrainian forces managed to disable two infantry fighting vehicles (BMPs) and one armored personnel carrier (BTR), effectively reducing the operational capabilities of the opposing forces. The released footage provided visual confirmation of the strikes on the Russian equipment and personnel, showcasing the drones’ direct hits and subsequent explosions.
The precise timing and location of the operation were not independently verified, and the analysis of the footage does not conclusively determine the types of Russian military equipment destroyed. This operation adds to a series of successful engagements by the Ukrainian Special Ops, which have previously utilized FPV drones for reconnaissance and direct action missions, achieving significant results against Russian military assets and personnel. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
11 Apr 24. Cuashub.com said today that Ukraine Seeks Interceptor Drones to Counter Airborne Threats. In a recent Telegram post, Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, announced the country’s intention to produce interceptor drones designed to counter Russia’s airborne threats, notably targeting Orlan, SuperCam, and ZALA drones.
Federov is seeking technical talent, such as developers and engineers who can create an interceptor drone to counter enemy drones without wasting other crucial air defense assets.
Key technical requirements mentioned in the Telegram post include:
• Able to fly and intercept drones at speeds of 100 – 150 km/h
• Can fly at an altitude of 1,500 m
• The drone can receive target information from detection sensors- and can quickly take off and locate the enemy drone, then “hit” the enemy drone
Solutions that meet the criteria will be further evaluated for possible development by the Brave1 Cluster. The Brave1 Cluster is the Government of Ukraine’s unified coordination platform to foster collaboration among all stakeholders within the defense technology industry. This platform facilitates cooperation by offering organizational, informational, and financial support for defense technology projects throughout Ukraine.
https://cuashub.com/content/ukraine-seeks-interceptor-drones-to-counter-airborne-threats/?_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8hGiu6QG9Xgo9EdiURW_0X-Z6lnOWMa_PZAewfVmPgDOTUpb_Ysg8K9QSvjgHD50a3cJRCZoe2ckl4fve6_uP1vAzy-1dxOwXritolFDcM1ze7c6U&_hsmi=302205988#utm_campaign=C-UAS%20Hub%20General&utm_medium=email&utm_content=302205988&utm_source=hs_email (Source: https://cuashub.com/)
10 Apr 24. Russian Foreign Intelligence Claim US PMCs Are Recruiting Cartel Members for Ukraine Conflict. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence has claimed that American private military companies (PMCs), under the guidance of the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), are actively recruiting members of Mexican and Colombian drug cartels who are currently serving sentences in American prisons. These individuals are purportedly being enlisted to join the conflict in Ukraine on behalf of the Ukrainian government. According to the SVR’s press bureau, inmates who agree to undertake this mission are allegedly offered full amnesty, with the underlying expectation that they may not return from the battlefield.
The SVR’s statement suggests that the first contingent of these recruited individuals, described as a criminal gang consisting of several hundred Mexicans and Colombians, is expected to be deployed to the combat zone by the upcoming summer. The initiative, if deemed successful, could potentially expand to include individuals from other countries experiencing significant crime rates. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
11 Apr 24. Zelenskyy accuses allies of ‘turning a blind eye’ as Russia intensifies air strikes. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy scolded Ukraine’s western partners and pleaded for more air defences after a Russian air attack early on Thursday targeted critical infrastructure in five regions. Zelenskyy said Russia attacked energy infrastructure in Kharkiv city and the Kharkiv region, as well as the Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Lviv and Odesa regions.
“All of our European neighbours and other partners see Ukraine’s critical need for air defence systems,” Zelenskyy said in an early morning statement. “We need air defence systems and other defence assistance, not just turning a blind eye and having lengthy discussions.”
The Air Force said it had shot down 39 out of 40 Russian drones but just 18 of the 42 cruise and ballistic missiles used in the attack. (Source: FT.com)
10 Apr 24. Support to Ukraine Also Serves U.S. Interests, Wallander Tells Congress. Ukraine is battling for its life as Russia continues its unprovoked war on the nation, and it is in U.S. international interests that Russia does not succeed, Celeste Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, told the House Armed Services Committee today.
When Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he anticipated an easy conquest of the neighboring state and a step to his ultimate goal of undermining European security and the Trans-Atlantic Alliance, she said.
“Putin’s goal is to subjugate Ukraine, to strip it of its sovereignty and independence, but also to weaken and subvert Europe, America and especially, of course, the NATO alliance,” she told the committee.
The U.S. response was in step with that of allies around the world, who want to see the “strategic failure” of Putin’s brutal war. “Our objective, and what has guided our policies for the last two years, is that Ukraine remain a sovereign, independent European country that is able to defend and deter and to deliver that failure to Putin,” Wallander said. “Ukraine is doing that with our support every day.”
The United States must continue funding to Ukraine to provide the armed forces with the systems, ammunition and training needed to defeat Russian aggression. This has implications well beyond Ukraine, the assistant secretary said.
U.S. support helps strengthen the NATO alliance to defend America’s European security, she said. “Our alliances in Europe enable American military presence more broadly, globally, as well as to defend and deter against Russia,” Wallander said. “China is watching how we perform in Europe, because they are drawing lessons for how we will live up to our commitments to allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific. So, we need to ensure that Putin also fails in his goal to undermine European security.”
While Americans admire Ukraine’s fight against a much larger foe, it also affects U.S. self-interests. “In the end, we are doing this so that Americans can be secure at home and abroad,” she said.
Wallander detailed what the U.S. has done since Russia’s invasion. “The department has enhanced its posture in Europe over the last two years,” she said. “But we are not alone. I can report that our allies in Europe are sharing the responsibility for collective defense. Together with our allies, the department is committed to reinforcing the lesson that aggression will result in very costly failure. American security and prosper and prosperity rely on that fact.”
Russian forces continue assaults in Ukraine. Missiles continue to target civilian infrastructure and cause widespread destruction in the nation. “Ukraine’s defenses and its population will face devastation without additional U.S. security assistance to join with Europe’s,” she said.
She noted that Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III has chaired the Ukraine Defense Contact Group since the beginning of the Russian invasion to aid the nation in its fight against Putin. Now, the allies and partners have focused on key capability areas for Ukraine’s defense. These are its air force, ground-based air defense, artillery, maritime security, armor, information security, information technology, demining and drones.
In February, Russia’s unprovoked and indefensible full-scale invasion of Ukraine entered its third year.
The United States will continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine.
Ukraine’s fight is not just about Ukraine’s survival. It is also about America’s security. pic.twitter.com/L9hURyLnEk
— Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III (@SecDef) April 9, 2024
“Through U.S. leadership of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, we have provided more than $88bn in security assistance to Ukraine,” she said.
Russia is paying the price with Putin having to invest more than $211bn into the war, which comes from a country that really cannot afford the expenditure, she said. It has also been costly in lives, with U.S. leadership ensuring that Russia is bearing enormous costs as a result of its war against Ukraine. Russia has expended $211 bn to equip, deploy, maintain and sustain operations in Ukraine. Resources that Russia’s limited economy can’t afford.
Russia’s military has also bled. “Russia’s armed forces have suffered at least 315,000 casualties in the fight,” Wallander said. “Yet, because of Putin’s obsessions, Russia will be a threat to European and U.S. security for years.”
Putin’s actions have also meant a stronger NATO. Finland and Sweden joined the alliance because of Russia’s actions. Longtime allies are investing in defense with 18 allies meeting the NATO goal of investing 2% of gross domestic product in defense. This is up from 9% in 2020, and that number will be higher by the summer, Wallander said.
“NATO allies, together, are answering the call to meet this historic threat,” she said. “The department will continue working with allies to defend our countries and our freedoms throughout Europe, including on its eastern flank those facing Russia where American soldiers serve on the front line.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
10 Apr 24. The UK and Ukraine sign a new defence agreement to encourage cooperation on defence and industrial issues.
• UK and Ukraine sign new arrangement on defence and industrial cooperation
• Signing came during UK’s largest ever trade mission to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion, with 29 UK defence businesses in Kyiv to meet Ukrainian businesses
• Trade Minister Greg Hands also in Kyiv to sign the arrangement, co-chair Infrastructure Taskforce and attend trade mission
The UK and Ukraine have signed a new defence agreement to encourage cooperation on defence and industrial issues.
The signing, which took place in Kyiv, came during UK’s largest ever trade mission to Ukraine, with a delegation of 29 UK businesses travelling to the country to speak about their expertise and find opportunities for cooperation.
The arrangement is the latest sign of the UK’s unwavering support for Ukraine’s defence efforts and long-term recovery and will help make Ukraine’s military operations more efficient. It’s designed to enable both countries to work together to tackle security challenges, enhance defence industries, and deliver high-profile joint projects over the coming months.
Increased co-operation could see dozens of projects between some of the UK’s biggest defence companies, Ukraine’s Armed Forces and Ukrainian companies – from establishing strategic military repair facilities to rebuilding civilian infrastructure and implementing technology to defend against cyber-attacks.
During the trade mission to Kyiv, UK defence company BAE Systems agreed a contract with the UK Ministry of Defence to maintain and repair gifted L119 Light Guns in Ukraine. This means L119s which were donated by the UK to Ukraine can be serviced in country and returned to the frontline quicker and provides vital support for Ukraine’s defence infrastructure.
UK Minister for Trade Policy Greg Hands, who accompanied the business delegation and signed the arrangement, said: “The UK has led the world in support of Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale invasion. Now is the time to double down on our support so Ukraine not only wins the war but emerges from it as a strong and resilient country. Defence is a critical element of that which is why we’re facilitating further defence trade between our nations with this Agreement. Our trade missions, alongside this signing, are testament to the UK’s integral role in boosting Ukraine’s war-time economy and facilitating their long-term recovery.”
UK Minister for Defence Procurement, James Cartlidge said: “This is the latest demonstration of the UK’s unwavering commitment to Ukraine, as they continue to fight back against Putin’s illegal invasion. This is now a war of industrial production and so it is key that we unleash the capability, capacity, ingenuity and innovation of our respective industrial bases. The Framework Arrangement will augment this joint activity, further supporting the brave men and women of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”
Alexander Kamyshin, Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine, said: “It was the UK that was the first country to sign the Security Cooperation Agreement with Ukraine, and it was British defence companies that were the first to open their offices here after the start of the great war. Our partnership is developing, and today we are one step closer to British manufacturers being the first to start producing their weapons in Ukraine. ”
Gabby Costigan, BAE Systems’ Group Managing Director, Business Development said: “We’re extremely proud to work with the UK Government in supporting Ukraine’s long term defence requirements. Our experience providing support in challenging environments as well as our leading defensive cyber capabilities mean we’ve played a leading role in identifying solutions that will help Ukraine secure victory and we look forward to strengthening our relationship further.”
The UK has now provided almost £12bn in military, humanitarian and economic support to Ukraine.
This new Framework Arrangement follows the historic UK-Ukraine Agreement on Security Cooperation, which was signed by the Prime Minister and President Zelenskyy in January 2024, and marked the start of an unshakeable hundred-year partnership between the UK and Ukraine.
The UK’s private sector plays an important role in Ukraine’s recovery. As part of the mission, the UK-Ukraine Infrastructure Taskforce, which provides expertise on the rebuild of Ukraine’s infrastructure, met with Trade Minister Greg Hands and Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov agreeing further support for Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts. The National Digital Twin Programme also showcased UK creativity and expertise and extended an offer of capability building workshops to facilitate smart cooperation in critical infrastructure projects covering the entirety of Ukraine.
Further to this, joint work between UK Export Finance (UKEF) and the Government of Ukraine has led to the opening of the first of six bridges as part of our ongoing support through the Infrastructure Taskforce to rebuild critical infrastructure in Ukraine.
• HMG has been supporting Ukraine in various ways since the war began. We were the first European country to provide lethal aid to Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. Since the start of the conflict, the UK has sent almost 400 different types of capabilities to Ukraine.
• The UK has now provided almost £12 bn in military, humanitarian and economic support to Ukraine and has often been the first-mover on vital lethal aid, from Storm Shadow cruise missiles to a squadron of Challenger 2 tanks.
• The UK’s non-military support to Ukraine since the start of the invasion comes to £4.7bn. This includes £4.1bn in fiscal support, and over £660m in bilateral assistance.
• We have introduced the largest and most severe package of sanctions ever imposed on Russia or indeed any major economy. And we have now sanctioned over 1700 individuals and entities since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
• Total trade in goods and services between the UK and Ukraine amounted to £1.5bn in the four quarters to the end of Q2 2023. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
09 Apr 24. Ukraine Aid Vital to National, Global Security, Austin Says.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III told lawmakers today that while he’s grateful that Congress passed the fiscal year 2024 defense appropriations budget, there’s also a $60bn supplemental funding request awaiting lawmakers’ passage that would support Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, as well as increasing submarine production.
About $50bn of that supplemental would flow through the U.S. industrial base, sustaining American jobs in more than 30 states, he testified, during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the Defense Department’s FY 2025 budget request.
“Our security in these turbulent times relies on American strength of purpose,” he said. Russian President Vladimir Putin “is betting that the United States will falter and abandon our friends and leave Ukraine in mortal danger. If the Kremlin prevails in Ukraine, it will embolden would-be aggressors around the globe and the United States would be far less secure if Putin got his way in Ukraine.”
“If America walked away, we would put the free world in peril and risk unimaginable costs and dangers. And we know that China and others are watching and learning from what Putin does and how we respond,” he added.
Despite being outnumbered and outgunned on the battlefield, Ukraine has done a remarkable job. They’ve taken back some 50% of the ground that the Russians initially occupied, he said.
Ukraine is not asking others to fight for them. They’re asking for the means to sustain their efforts, he pointed out.
Without security assistance, they won’t be able to resupply the much-needed air defense systems that they need to protect their people and their other defense capabilities would atrophy, he said.
Regarding the FY 2025 budget request and future budget requests, Austin said, “The single greatest way that Congress can continue to support the Department of Defense is to pass predictable, sustained and timely appropriations.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
09 Apr 24. Russia Adapts Tanks with “Turtle” Armor in Response to Ukrainian Drone Threats. Recent footage has surfaced indicating an unconventional approach by Russian tank crews to mitigate the threat posed by Ukrainian explosive drones. A video showcases a Russian tank equipped with a fixed, shell-like metal structure maneuvering through a field near the Donetsk town of Krasnohorivka. This area has been a hotspot in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with Donetsk City under Russian control. The “turtle” encasement, which partially obscures the tank’s main gun, has sparked a flurry of online jokes and memes, drawing comparisons to a “Russian Ninja Turtle tank.”
The adaptation is seen as a response to the significant losses Russia has incurred in its tank fleet since the onset of its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Estimates by the International Institute for Strategic Studies earlier this year put Russian tank losses at approximately 3,000 units. The use of improvised armor on Russian military vehicles is not new; it has been a continuous effort to provide additional protection against strikes. Recently, such defensive measures have also been extended to naval vessels.
The introduction of “cope cages” or additional fortifications on tanks and other military assets aims to mitigate the damage from precision munitions strikes. Ukraine’s effective use of first-person-view (FPV) drones against a variety of targets has been a significant factor in this development. These drones have become a preferred method for targeting Russian armored vehicles, prompting Russia to explore various countermeasures, including electronic warfare systems and FPV drone suppression technologies. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
10 Apr 24. Ukraine Developing ‘Unstoppable’ AI-Powered Attack Drone.
Ukraine is developing artificially intelligent drones that will be harder for Russia to shoot down, The Telegraph can disclose.
The push to create an image recognition targeting system, which can autonomously hunt and strike targets, is backed by more than £200 m in Western finance from a UK-led drone coalition.
Kateryna Chernohorenko, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, said the system would make one-way attack drones less susceptible to Russian electronic blockers and allow pilots to operate them further from the front line.
The official, who leads Kyiv’s negotiations on drones, said it was being developed as a “joint venture” alongside members of the £1.2 bn scheme.
“The great challenge is the last mile of engagement taking into account that more and more individual electronic warfare systems are available,”
Ms Chernohorenko said.
“Our drones should be more effective and should be guided towards the target without any operators. It should be based on visual navigation. We also call it ‘last-mile targeting’, homing in according to the image.”
The drone would be launched and piloted by a human to about a mile before their target.
At that point, AI would take over, guiding the drone to its eventual target and making it harder for Russia to jam any signals back to the pilot.
A fifth of the finances raised through the drone capability coalition, spearheaded by Britain and Latvia, is being set aside by Kyiv for the manufacture of the next generation of combat drones.
British defence sources have denied that the Government will play any role in producing autonomous drones alongside Ukrainian engineers.
Ukraine’s drone programme has proved hugely controversial in recent weeks, with the United States publicly condemning Kyiv’s deep strikes on oil refineries inside Russia.
Western intelligence officials have acknowledged Ukraine’s armed forces have access to drones capable of hitting targets more than 600 miles away.
Tweaks and innovations have made both commercially produced and homemade UAVs lethal weapons in the war between Ukraine and Russia.
Ukraine’s defence ministry believes its fleet of naval drones have inflicted losses on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet “at a ratio one to 10 in the context of price”.
Ukrainian forces have become increasingly reliant on the devices to compensate for shortages of more conventional weapons fuelled by the United States’ delayed $60bn aid package.
Western officials have warned the shortages of weapons and ammunition have forced Ukraine to cede ground to advancing Russian troops.
Because of the urgency, half of the funds raised by the international coalition are being used to purchase readily available UAVs from Ukrainian producers.
“We understand the joint ventures are quite a long way [away] and it’s not a fast way but we want to move in this direction to have joint ventures, to prove we’re fast and can produce technological weapons,”
Ms Chernohorenko said. A Ministry of Defence spokesman said:
“We are leading the way in providing lethal aid to Ukraine, including over 10,000 drones, which can attack targets at sea, provide surveillance and are first-person view. The UK is also a joint leader of the drone capability coalition, which is supplying thousands of drones to Ukraine which have proven highly effective on the battlefield.” (Source: UAS VISION/The Telegraph)
09 Apr 24. Ukraine conflict: Lithuania sends mobile command vehicles to Ukraine. Lithuania has supplied an undisclosed number of M577 armoured command vehicles to the Ukrainian army. The vehicles, provided under a military support deal, arrived in Ukraine on 5 April, according to the Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence (MND) on 6 April. An MND spokesperson was unable to specify to Janes the number of units supplied for security reasons.
M577 is the command-and-control (C2) variant of the M113 tracked armoured personnel carrier (APC) that was first introduced to the US Army in the 1960s. Three generations exist – A1, A2, and A3 – as is the case with the M113. M577 can also be used as a fire-direction centre and mobile medical treatment facility as well as a communications vehicle. In December 2016 Lithuania acquired 168 M577A2 vehicles from Germany at a cost of EUR1.6m (USD1.7m). The vehicles were suited for various purposes, including C2, artillery fire control, mortar fire control, training, and as an ambulance. This followed an earlier order for 26 M577s from Germany. (Source: Janes)
09 Apr 24. China and Russia have pledged to maintain “industrial supply chain stability” just days after US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen warned Beijing against supporting Moscow’s war effort. At a meeting in Beijing on Tuesday, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov reinforced calls for their two countries to work more closely together against “hegemonism”, the Chinese foreign ministry said. “China and Russia will be more active in pursuing the convergence of their interests . . . and work together to maintain international industrial supply chain stability,” a ministry statement quoted Wang as saying. The ministers’ stalwart expressions of mutual support and veiled condemnation of the US came as Yellen was flying back to Washington after a six-day trip to China. The US Treasury secretary warned her Beijing counterparts on Saturday of “significant consequences” for Chinese companies that provided “material support for Russia’s war against Ukraine, including support to the Russian defence industrial base”. Lavrov’s visit to Beijing offered the latest signs of the growing partnership between China and Russia more than two years into Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In a meeting with President Xi Jinping, Lavrov said Russia was “delighted” by China’s success under his leadership and made veiled criticisms of countries “that are trying to contain China’s development, just as they are trying to contain Russia’s”, according to Russian news agency Interfax. Chinese state television quoted Xi as saying Beijing and Moscow had embarked on a path of “harmonious coexistence” and “win-win co-operation”. Lavrov backed China’s peace plan for Ukraine, which does not condemn Russia for the invasion and largely parrots Kremlin talking points on the war. Even as western countries have imposed sanctions and trade embargoes against Russia, Moscow has sustained its economy and defence industry thanks to expanded trade with China, imports from third countries and direct military supplies from North Korea and Iran. As a result of western sanctions, Russia has become dependent on China not only as an importer but also as the main customer for its exports. China buys about 40 per cent of Russia’s crude oil and most of its coal. It is one of the top three buyers of Russian oil products, pipeline gas and LNG. Interfax quoted Lavrov as saying relations between Russia and China had reached an “unprecedented level” and that President Vladimir Putin’s re-election in March offered “additional guarantees” for the strengthening of ties. Wang assured his counterpart that China would “continue to support Russia’s development and revitalisation under the leadership of President Putin”, the Chinese foreign ministry said. Russia said Lavrov’s visit was in preparation for an expected trip by Putin to meet Xi in China later this year. The Russian foreign minister said the two leaders would also meet at summits of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Kazakhstan in June and of the Brics forum in Russia in October. Yellen’s comments at the weekend followed warnings by US secretary of state Antony Blinken last week to EU and Nato foreign ministers that Beijing was assisting Moscow “at a concerning scale”, particularly with Russia’s production of optical equipment and propellants and its space sector. In other comments on Tuesday, China’s foreign ministry said Beijing would dispatch one of Xi’s senior lieutenants, Zhao Leji, to North Korea on a courtesy visit. The trip follows increasingly close relations between Russia and North Korea — a country Beijing has traditionally sought to keep closely within its sphere of influence — with Moscow needing Pyongyang’s huge stores of military ordinance to prop up its Ukraine war effort. (Source: FT.com)
09 Apr 24. Ukraine says Russian Drones Dropped Grenades Packed with Chemical Agents. Ukraine’s military is tracking how often Russian drones drop grenades containing dangerous chemical agents. It’s happening a lot and more frequently, the military says.
The number of chemical weapons being dropped from unmanned aerial vehicles is becoming a systemic issue, the Command of the Support Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posted on Facebook on Friday.
Ukraine has recorded 1,412 cases in which harmful chemical substances were discovered in ammunition from February 2023 to March 2024. In March, there were there were 371 cases alone, 90 more than during the previous period.
Russia has been using K-51 and RG-VO grenades, according to Ukraine. The armed forces also said these chemical bombings violate several laws of warfare, such as the United Nations’ 1992 Chemical Weapons Convention.
The K-51s are CS gas riot control grenades, and the RG-VO grenades are fragmentation weapons that have reportedly carried a CN chemical agent.
In February 2023, Russia accused Ukraine of using chemical weapons on the front lines, saying that its soldiers have been experiencing health issues as a result. Russia didn’t provide evidence or name the specific chemicals.
Ukraine denied the allegations against it saying that it has been following the laws of warfare.
Ukraine and Russia have hurled chemical warfare accusations at one another over the course of the war, with some more credible than others. In December 2023, a Russian brigade admitted to dropping a chemical substance similar to tear gas, which is banned in war, on Ukraine’s soldiers.
Ukrainian soldiers have said they’ve experienced suffocation when they’ve come in contact with the gas and that they’ve witnessed the chemical causing fires in trenches.
The Russian military has been accused of numerous war crimes since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, including torture, unlawful use of explosive weapons, torture, indiscriminate attacks and more. (Source: UAS VISION/Business Insider YouTube)
09 Apr 24. Assistance for Ukraine unbroken: Rheinmetall delivers additional 20 Marder infantry fighting vehicles. The German government commissioned Rheinmetall to deliver 20 additional Marder infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) to the Ukraine. The order was placed in March 2024 and has a value in the mid double-digit m Euro range. The delivery of this new lot is scheduled within 2024. So far, Rheinmetall has already handed over a three-digit number of Marder IFVs to the Ukrainian Armed Forces via direct deliveries and circular exchange programmes. mThe version of the 1A3 Marder that has now been ordered also features integrated laser range finders, which enable efficient and precise target elimination. The company had already supplied the first 20 of these combat vehicles to the Ukraine on behalf of the German government in March 2023. A number of further lots have since been delivered, each in two-figure numbers.
Rheinmetall acquired the overhauled 1A3 Marder IFV from the Bundeswehr. The company began overhauling the IFVs for immediate deployment at its own expense back in spring 2022. The corresponding work has since been underway at Rheinmetall’s locations in Unterluess and Kassel. The Marder IFV, which was developed for the Bundeswehr, and is still being operated there, is one of the world’s most proven weapon systems of its kind. Over the course of its service life, the vehicle has been repeatedly modernised and improved in its combat effectiveness.
The Bundeswehr now has more than 300 Puma IFVs in operation, representing the latest generation of this type of combat vehicle, and gradually eliminating the Marder IFV in the German Army. In addition, a second lot of over 50 additional Pumas was ordered in 2023.
02 Apr 24. Pearson Engineering selected by UK Ministry of Defence to provide mine clearance equipment to defeat explosives in Ukraine. With Ukraine now the most mined country in the world, Pearson Engineering has secured a contract from the UK’s Ministry of Defence to provide equipment to defeat the threat of mines and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to Ukrainian Armed Forces, as part of previously announced mine clearance capability packages.
On behalf of the UK and the UK-administered International Fund for Ukraine (IFU), Defence Equipment & Support (DE&S) awarded this contract to Pearson Engineering. The IFU contract was part of the over £100m maintenance & manoeuvre support package announced in October 2023. The contract includes the supply of multi-purpose vehicle interfaces that will allow armoured vehicles already in Ukraine to accept self-protection mine ploughs which have been gifted by the British Army and refurbished by Pearson Engineering. The vehicle interfaces will allow Ukraine’s armoured vehicle fleet to not only use mine ploughs to clear safe routes, but also to accept a wide range of other types of ground engaging equipment, should it be needed, to defeat other types of natural and deliberate obstacles.
Remotely controlled mine clearance vehicles called MW370 have also been provided to defeat ordnance and to create safe routes across large stretches of civilian land, as well as Barbadian Mine Rollers designed to protect against pressure-fused mines and IEDs. Equipment has been provided with comprehensive spares and sustainment packages to ensure it can support the lives and assets of Ukrainian Armed Forces whilst in conflict.
Ian Bell, Group Chief Executive Officer at Pearson Engineering said:“Design and delivery of this type of lifesaving equipment is at the heart of Pearson Engineering’s operations.
“We have supplied more than 3,000 mine ploughs of various types around the world, and we continually invest to ensure that we can defeat modern threats as they evolve.
“We are trusted by international Armed Forces and we are committed to continuing to defeat battlefield obstacles to keep soldiers safe.”
Ukraine is now the most heavily mined country in the world and, without equipment to mitigate the threat of such devices to life and assets, operations to defend the country’s borders could be significantly hindered.
Maj Gen Anna-Lee Reilly, head of Strategic Capability, Engagement and Operations at DE&S, said: “We continue to work collaboratively with our industrial partners to ensure that Ukraine has the mine clearance and explosive ordnance disposal capabilities it needs, both for the current battle, but also in the interests of a safer and more secure environment for the people of Ukraine in the longer term.”
The contract follows collaboration between Pearson and Germany’s Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft (FFG) to supply route opening mine ploughs to Ukraine, building upon decades of partnership to support European armed forces to overcome the threat of anti-tank mines.
(Source: www.joint-forces.com)
05 Apr 24. Ukrainian forces rig machine gun networks to down Russian drones. Ukrainian forces have rigged an elaborate network of sensors in the country that feeds targeting data to heavy machine guns for downing Russian combat drones, according to analysts.
The fallback tactics towards mobile, low-cost defenses come as sophisticated interceptor missiles donated by Western allies are running low.
Last month alone, Moscow fired more than 3,000 guided aerial bombs, 600 drones and 400 missiles at Ukraine, according to remarks made by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The Kremlin has used Iranian Shahed-type exploding drones, which Russia now reportedly also produces domestically, to carry out attacks against Ukrainian population centers. The threat posed by these weapons are the primary focus of the new class of nimble counter-drone setups that can be moved where they are most needed.
“Mobile air defense in Ukraine is probably responsible for over 40% intercepts of these systems [Shahed-type drones],” Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment think tank who frequently travels to Ukraine for research, told Defense News. “This is partly due to the deficit of munitions for valuable interceptive systems like Patriots, IRIS-T, amongst others,” he said.
The cheaper option, he explained, consists of “heavy machine guns, with thermal scopes and tablets, paired on a gun mount.”
Kofman said that the tactics of using firearms to shoot down Russian drones are part of an intricate web of detection systems scattered around the country.
“This system works because the gun crew is part of an elaborate sensor network set up around Ukrainian cities; there is an integrated system for tracking incoming drones, including radar and acoustics, and a robust network of electronic warfare systems,” Kofman said.
“That forces Shahed drones to increase in altitude from their standard low-altitude flight in order to navigate,” he added.
Another cheap sensor network Ukrainians have established to track Russian aerial threats consists thousands of cell phones placed next to microphones atop six-foot poles throughout the country, forwarding incoming engine noise to anti-aircraft artillery units for processing.
In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, the commander of U.S. Air Forces Europe, Gen. James Hecker, praised the technique’s success rate.
“They had 84 of them that came in the other day – they detected 84 and shot down 80 with the anti-aircraft artillery units,” the Hecker said.
At a NATO meeting of foreign affairs ministers, held this week in Brussels, Ukraine’s top diplomat Dmytro Kuleba called for allies to provide more air defense weapons.
“Partners did provide us with different systems, we appreciated that, but it’s just simply insufficient, given the scale of the war,” Kuleba was quoted as saying by Reuters. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/Defense News)
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