NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Apr 04.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS 

• OFFENSIVES: President Zelensky stated that Ukraine will be unable to defend its territory successfully without US support, indicating a likely shift to a strategic defensive strategy that will trade space for time to minimise losses
• STRIKES: Russia continues to launch high-intensity missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure; Kyiv assesses that the tempo of attacks will soon decrease amid Russian efforts to rebuild stockpiles
• MOLDOVA: Romania has drafted a national defence law that would empower Bucharest to intervene in order to protect Romanian citizens living outside the country
• FORECAST: A bill lowering the mobilisation age from 27 to 25 has formally been written into law in Kyiv amid ongoing efforts by Ukraine to mitigate personnel shortages
• OFFENSIVES: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on 29 March that Ukraine will be unable to successfully defend its territory without US support. Crucially, Zelensky stated that without US support, Ukrainian forces will be forced to cede more territory ‘step by step’. He stated that a shorter frontline is more advantageous in contrast to a larger frontline, which would ultimately be more vulnerable given Russian forces could more easily exploit weak points and achieve a breakthrough.
• OFFENSIVES: This is a highly significant admission and reflects Kyiv’s thinking that Ukraine must pivot towards a strategic defence that trades space for time, allowing Ukrainian forces to minimise losses and stabilise the frontline. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has estimated that Russian forces have taken 195 square miles (505 sq km) since they launched offensive operations in October 2023. Of that figure, Russian forces took almost 38 square miles (100 sq km) between 1 January and 28 March 2024. Further Russian advances are likely if Ukraine adopts the above strategy, which would likely be necessary if slow or absent Western (specifically US) military aid continues to create capability gaps for the Ukrainian military.
• OFFENSIVES: Ukrainian Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on 29 March that materiel shortages mean Ukrainian forces have no choice but to conduct a strategic defence and that uncertainty around future Western aid packages means Kyiv cannot plan future operations. Syrskyi acknowledged that Russian advantages in terms of personnel, artillery and air strikes, together with Ukraine’s own artillery shell shortages, have enabled Russian forces to advance. He also claimed that Ukrainian forces would have been able to prevent the seizure of Avdiivka if they had access to sufficient artillery ammunition and air defences in the sector. Syrskyi also reiterated that Ukrainian forces are currently focused on rotating forces away from the frontline to allow exhausted units to rest and reconstitute, and that non-combat units have transferred to the frontline to enable these rotations. For further analysis on Ukraine’s ongoing personnel shortages, see FORECAST below.
• BAKHMUT: A Ukrainian drone commander on the Bakhmut axis stated on 28 March that there are currently between seven and 10 Russian troops to every single Ukrainian soldier near Bakhmut. He also stated that Russian intensification of glide bomb attacks and Ukraine’s own personnel shortages are making the situation ‘difficult’. Russian forces have made confirmed advances west of Bakhmut over the last week. The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed on 30 March that their forces had taken Ivanivske, a village due west of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage from 1 April indicates that Russian forces launched a seemingly unsuccessful mechanised assault against Ivanivske, which took notable losses. Further geolocated footage from 2 April confirms Russian forces have reached the southwestern edge of Ivanviske. However, it remains unclear whether Russian forces have successfully taken the entire settlement.
• DONETSK: On 30 March, Russian forces conducted one of the largest mechanised assaults since October 2023, involving a battalion sized force compromising of at least 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles (IVFs). The attack, which took place near the village of Tonenke, due west of Avdiivka, failed with Ukrainian forces claiming to have destroyed 12 tanks and eight IVFs. Geolocated footage from the battle does show destroyed or incapacitated Russian armoured vehicles, but we cannot confirm losses. Nevertheless, it is clear that the attack was a failure and failed to break through Ukrainian lines.
• DONETSK: The latest mechanised Russian attack is significant for a number of reasons. Firstly, it confirms that the Russian high command is still prioritising the Avdiivka sector. Russian forces likely desire to maintain the initiative following the capture of Avdiivka, and plan to achieve a breakthrough before Ukrainian forces are able to successfully build permanent fortifications. This would allow them to establish a defence in depth that would seriously slow (or prevent) Russian advances. Secondly, the failure of the attack underscores the difficulties both sides face in conducting larger-scale mechanised assaults. The saturation of drones over the battlefield means that both sides are more likely to successfully spot concentrations of enemy forces before they attack. This will allow the defenders to prepare the battlefield and pre-target the most likely lines of advance with artillery and drones. This has likely been the case in numerous Russian mechanised attacks.
• DONETSK: The attack reflects a wider trend of Russian forces increasing the tempo and frequency of mechanised assaults over recent weeks, though gains have remained limited. Aside from efforts to maintain momentum and generate opportunities for breakthroughs, this intensification likely reflects Russian desires to achieve as many gains as possible before the spring rains deteriorate ground conditions, which will make mechanised manoeuvre more difficult thereafter.
• DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 31 March shows that Russian forces have advanced towards Vodyane, located south-west of Avdiivka; they have reached the western outskirts of the settlement. Additional footage posted on 31 March shows Russian advances west of Berdychi, located around eight miles (13km) north-west of Avdiivka.
• KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Geolocated footage from 3 April indicates that Ukrainian forces repelled a platoon-sized Russian mechanised attack east of Terny, located west of Kreminna. The assault likely supports recent Ukrainian claims that Russian troops are increasingly focusing on the Lyman direction, decreasing offensive activity in the Kupiansk sector. However, geolocated footage posted on 2 April shows recent Russian advances south of Bilohorivka, south of Kreminna, indicating low level offensive operations continue further north.
• SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
• STRIKES: Overnight on 28-29 March, Russia launched a massive long-range strike, including 99 projectiles. The attack comprised 60 Shahed-136/131 drones, three Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles, two Iskandr-M ballistic missiles, nine Kh-59 guided missiles, four Iskandr-K cruise missiles and 21 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles. Ukrainian air defences destroyed 58 drones, 17 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and four Iskandr-K cruise missiles. As is common in these forms of attack, no ballistic missiles were intercepted.
• STRIKES: The attack targeted energy infrastructure in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk and Kirovohrad oblasts. Power outages were also reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson and Vinnytsia oblasts. The attack reportedly hit the Kaniv and Dniester hydroelectric power plants (HPP) in Cherkasy and Chernivtsi oblasts. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Russian forces deliberately targeted these HPPs, reinforcing the likelihood that HPPs have become priority targets. In Lviv oblast, two Kinzhal missiles reportedly damaged critical infrastructure. On 29 March, Ukrainian air forces intercepted two Kh-29 Missiles targeting Odesa oblast.
• STRIKES: Early on 30 March, Russian forces launched four S-300/S-400 missiles and 12 drones. All the drones were destroyed over Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Odesa and Poltava oblasts. Later, on 30 March 2024, Ukrainian air defences intercepted an X-59 guided missile, a reconnaissance drone and a Lancet drone.
• STRIKES: Early on 31 March, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 14 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, one Iskandr-M ballistic missile, one Kh-59 missile and 11 Shahed drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted nine Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and nine drones. Local reports indicate that the attack damaged civilian infrastructure in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv and ‘critical infrastructure’ in Lviv.
• STRIKES: On 1 April, Ukrainian air defences destroyed a Russian reconnaissance drone over the Black Sea near Odesa (Odesa oblast). Later on 1 April, an unspecified Russian missile hit Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk oblast), causing limited damage to residential buildings. Overnight on 1-2 April, Russia attacked Ukraine with one Kh-59 missile and ten Shahed drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted nine drones over Dnipropetrovsk. Local reports indicate that the missile hit the city of Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk), damaging residential buildings and injuring a dozen people. Media reports also claimed that a drone hit an energy facility in Kirovohrad. On 3 April, Russian forces launched three S-300 missiles and four Shahed-136/131 drones. All four drones were destroyed by Ukrainian forces over Cherkasy, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad and Zhytomyr oblasts.
• STRIKES: On 2 April, Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) Deputy Chief Vadym Skibitskyi reported that Russian forces will likely reduce the tempo of missile strikes to replenish stockpiles. Skibitskyi explained that Russia currently possesses around 950 high-precision operational-strategic and strategic-level missiles with a range exceeding 217 miles (350km) and that Moscow typically seeks to avoid its missile stockpile from falling below 900 missiles. This means that Moscow will likely temporarily reduce the tempo of its missile strikes to replenish its stocks. Skibitskyi further stated that Russia can produce around 40 Kh-101 missiles, 40 ballistic and cruise Iskanders, several dozen Kalibr cruise missiles and several Kinzhal ballistic missiles each month.
• STRIKES: Nevertheless, Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) head Kyrylo Budanov stated on 31 March that he anticipates an uptick in the use of sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea Fleet in the coming weeks. This will likely support efforts to offset the reduction of air-launched Kh-101 cruise missiles, upon which Russian forces have relied heavily in recent months. The rate of Kalibr attacks has remained very low in recent months, which has likely allowed Russia to boost its stockpile of said missiles.
• STRIKES: Meanwhile, on 2 April, a Ukrainian drone attack struck Russia’s third-largest oil refinery located in Tatarstan. The strike was carried out using a light aircraft seemingly modified to fly remotely. The attack damaged a crude oil processing unit within the Yelabyga oil refinery that previously processed around 155,000 barrels of crude oil per day. However, according to an unnamed source, the damage was not critical and the attack did not disrupt oil output. The attack was conducted over 745 miles (1,200km) from the Ukrainian border, the furthest such attack from the border of the war to date. The strike also reflects the current intensification of attacks against oil refineries in order to disrupt Russian fuel production capabilities. Following the strike, Kazakhstan’s Qazaq Airline suspended flights to the capital of Russia’s Republic of Tatarstan for an unspecified period.
• STRIKES: Following the latest Ukrainian attack, Rustam Minnikhanov, the head of the Republic of Tatarstan, noted that Russian companies and regional authorities cannot rely on Russian air defences and must take steps to improve defences against Ukrainian drone attacks. Minnikhanov’s statements and Ukraine’s successful strikes against Russian oil refineries highlight the vulnerability of infrastructure facilities to Kyiv’s long-range attacks. Given that these facilities are spread out across Russia, reinforcing their air defence capabilities will remain highly challenging.
• STRIKES: In the meantime, both Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to innovate with the goal of improving strike capabilities. On 2 April, CNN reported that Ukrainian forces have integrated basic features of artificial intelligence (AI) into drones used to attack oil refineries. While this remains unconfirmed, unnamed Ukrainian sources cited by CNN stated that these improvements allow unmanned armed vehicles (UAVs) to avoid being electronically jammed. The enhancements also improve the accuracy of projectiles by integrating a terminal computer with satellite and terrain data.
• STRIKES: A Ukrainian Telegram channel reported that the analysis of a Kh-101 missile used during the 29 March strikes shows that Russia has improved the projectile. The improvements reportedly include equipping the missile with a second warhead which enhances the lethality of the projectile, especially against ground targets. Russia’s continued efforts to improve its projectiles and diversify its striking tactics will increasingly challenge Ukrainian interception capabilities.
• *Finland: Indefinite border closures with Russia underscore ongoing ‘grey zone’ threat. On 4 April, the government confirmed that it would extend its border closures with Russia indefinitely. Interior Minister Mari Rantanen reported that Helsinki regards the matter as a ‘long-term situation’ and that the government is unlikely to reverse the measures in the medium term. The initial decision was in response to an uptick in irregular migration, which was highly likely orchestrated by Russia in retaliation to Finland’s NATO accession and a subsequent defence deal that granted the US military access to bases in the country. Helsinki hopes that the near-total border closure will limit the possibility of a major migrant crisis akin to that orchestrated by Belarus along its borders with the Baltic states and Poland in 2021. The closures will almost certainly sustain disruption to overland trade networks between Finland and Russia; trade has been severely dampened since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. We assess that Russia is likely to continue grey zone operations and/or active measures in Europe in the coming year, including cyber attacks and mis- and dis-information campaigns, as well as sabotage.*Russia: Radical migration policy changes are unlikely due to demographic issues, labour shortages. On 4 April, Russian President Vladimir Putin assessed that the country’s economy will face a workforce shortage in the coming years given demographic challenges. Putin has often emphasised the need to raise birth rates and to reverse Russia’s ‘population decline’ throughout his tenure. Notably, on 27 March, the Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate described Russia’s demographic crisis as the country’s main existential threat and emphasised the need for a new migration policy. At the same time, it called for significant restrictions to curtail low-skilled foreign labour and voiced anti-migrant and nationalist rhetoric. Migrants from Central Asia have historically aided in offsetting Russia’s labour shortages. However, they often experience xenophobia and discrimination, which we assessed are likely to increase following the 22 March terror attack in Moscow oblast (see Sibylline Alert – 22 March 2024). Nevertheless, we assess that Russia is unlikely to enact significant migration changes given its ongoing demographic issues and labour shortages in the near term (though ethno-religious tensions will likely remain heightened).*Russia: Western sanctions will disrupt Russia’s ambitions to become leading LNG exporter. On 4 April, Reuters reported that Western sanctions and a shortage of ice-class tankers forced the Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) company Novatek to suspend production at its Arctic LNG-2 project. Unnamed Russian sources stated that Novatek is instead seeking to develop its LNG project at Murmansk. Since Murmansk is an ice-free port, Novatek would not need ice-class tankers to export its LNG. The Arctic LNG-2 project is crucial to Russia’s ambitions to export 20% of global LNG by 2030. However, since November 2023, it has been under US sanctions. In March, Western media outlets publicised an investigation that revealed that Novatek was able to procure around USD 630 million of banned equipment for the Arctic LNG-2 project. Nevertheless, the likely suspension of operations at the Arctic LNG-2 indicates the effectiveness of Western sanctions in this sector. We assess that such restrictions will continue to impede Moscow’s efforts to become a leading LNG exporter despite alternative efforts to export LNG via Murmansk. (Source: Sibylline)

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• MOLDOVA: Romanian media reported on 2 April that Romania has drafted a national defence law which would empower Bucharest to intervene to protect Romanian citizens outside of the country. The proposed law would allow the president, at the proposal of the prime minister, to order measures aimed at safeguarding Romanian citizens in danger outside of the Romanian state. It also stipulates that the parliament would approve the deployment of military and non-military capabilities to counter ‘hybrid threats’ following consultations with the Supreme Council of National Defence.
• MOLDOVA: As over 600,000 Moldovans hold dual Romanian citizenship, the legislation is highly likely aimed at protecting Romanian citizens in Moldova. However, a large proportion of Moldovans with dual Romanian citizenship are also highly likely living abroad in the EU, meaning that the number of Romanian citizens permanently living in Moldova is lower than this initial figure.
• MOLDOVA: The move is almost certainly aimed at aligning with the official French policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ vis-à-vis Russia. France has already indicated a potential willingness to deploy troops to Moldova to counter Russian threats, and the Romanian stance likely seeks to align with French policy (Romania and France have a deep history of strategic cooperation). The Romanian decision is also likely a direct response to the separatist pro-Russian breakaway republic of Transnistria’s recent appeal to Moscow for ‘protection’ – Russia has repeatedly stated that it seeks to protect ‘compatriots’ and Russian citizens abroad, mirroring the new Romanian legislation.
• MOLDOVA: The Moldovan constitution enshrines the country’s neutrality and states that state should not technically permit the stationing of any foreign military personnel on its territory. While this new proposed law would technically contradict any hypothetical Romanian intervention, the fact that Moldova has undertaken military training with NATO states on Moldovan soil reflects the current government’s readiness to work with NATO militaries to improve resilience and mitigate Russian hybrid and kinetic threats. As such, Romania  likely seeks to deter potential Russian aggression and hybrid threats directed at Moldova, which we assess are likely to intensify ahead of the presidential election this autumn. However, the prospects of a direct Romanian (and French) military intervention in the short term remains unlikely.
• ENERGY: Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, reported on 2 April that large-scale Russian strikes on 22 and 29 March resulted in the loss of 80% of the corporation’s generating capacity. DTEK disclosed that five out of its six thermal power plants (TPPs) are seriously damaged and described the situation as ‘extremely difficult’. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on 29 March that Russia damaged energy infrastructure in six oblasts overnight: Cherkasy, Chernivtsi, Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv and Vinnytsia. Shmyhal also added that emergency energy shutdowns were implemented in some regions without specifying which.
• ENERGY: Sustained Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure will highly likely continue to undermine Ukraine’s energy security in the coming weeks. Over the longer term, continued attacks against Ukrainian energy facilities could possibly undermine Ukraine’s ability to stabilise the grid during future disruptions, compounding operational challenges.
• ENERGY: President Volodymyr Zelensky assessed on 29 March that Moldova is vulnerable to spillover risks from Russian efforts to target Ukrainian hydroelectric power plants (HPPs). Zelensky specifically referred to the Dniester HPP, situated on the border of Ukraine’s Chernivtsi and Vinnytsia oblasts on the Dniester River, which flows through Moldova. Zelensky accused Russia of wanting to create a catastrophe akin to the breach of the Kakhovka Dam in June 2023 (see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 6 June 2023). However, HPPs are designed to withstand significant external force, which would therefore likely mitigate a significant breach impacting surrounding Ukrainian and Moldovan regions. Nevertheless, recent Russian attacks against the Kaniv and Dniester HPPs in Cherkasy and Chernivtsi oblasts on 28-29 March, as well as the attack on the Dnieper HPP in Zaporizhzhia on 21-22 March, clearly indicate that Russian forces are now actively targeting HPPs as part of the wider escalation of their strike campaign against energy infrastructure.
• AID: Ukraine’s allies are reportedly considering transferring the leadership of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (Ramstein format) from the US to NATO to help maintain the flow of assistance to Kyiv under a possible second US presidency of Donald Trump. Politico reported on 2 April that the goal would be to finalise the move at a summit of NATO leaders in Washington DC in July. This is unconfirmed. Such a move would likely insulate the format from any rapid policy changes in Washington DC in 2025. However, this insulation would prove limited if the US does decide to wind down military aid to Ukraine. We continue to assess that the US presidential election will be one of the most significant votes for determining the long-term trajectory of the West’s support for Kyiv.
• AID: According to reports from 2 April, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has proposed to establish a five-year military aid package worth more than USD 100 bn for Ukraine. On 3 April, Stoltenberg stated that the alliance must ensure long-term reliable and predictable assistance for Kyiv. Nevertheless, the proposal is unlikely to garner consensus from all NATO members – principally Hungary – and will therefore likely have to undergo changes to increase its chances of its approval. Separately, French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced on 31 March that Paris will transfer hundreds of old armoured vehicles that are still functional to Ukraine as part of a new aid package. Lecornu also stated that Kyiv would receive a new batch of Aster 30 missiles.

FORECAST

MOBILISATION: On 2 April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed into law a bill lowering the mobilisation age from 27 to 25 as lawmakers consider a separate bill to tighten mobilisation further. Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, adopted the bill last May; it has now formally entered into force. Mobilisation and conscription remain highly sensitive political issues in Ukraine, and there is a realistic possibility the latest bill will cause limited societal backlash in the near term. However, efforts to increase mobilisation are necessary given Ukraine’s growing personnel shortages and Russia’s demographic advantages.

Zelensky also signed legislation requiring men who were previously deemed to be of limited fitness for military service to undergo a re-examination within nine months. The bill cancels this category, meaning that a person can now only be classed as fit or unfit for military duty. This is almost certainly aimed at maximising personnel recruitment. Men who previously fell into this category were restricted from being deployed to certain units or for certain duties, such as the air assault forces, marines and special forces (with the exception of support units).

Nevertheless, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi disclosed in an interview on 29 March that the military does not need to mobilise as many as the previously estimated 500,000 recruits. While Syrskyi did not provide a specific number, he said the previous estimate was significantly reduced following a review of resources. He added that an audit of non-combat formations had allowed Ukraine’s military to send ‘thousands’ of servicemen to combat units.

While Syrskyi’s comments will possibly offset concerns of a mass wave of mobilisation in Ukraine in the coming months, Ukraine’s growing personnel shortages will become more and more apparent as the war drags on. Ukraine will need to enact further expansions of mobilisation if it hopes to contain Russian advances in the medium-to-long term, though suggestions by Zelensky that Ukrainian forces will begin trading space for time will possibly offset losses in the short-to-medium term at the expense of territorial losses (see OFFENSIVES above for further analysis).

On 3 April, Zelensky claimed that Russia plans to mobilise an additional 300,000 troops by 1 June. Zelensky did not clarify whether he was referring to existing conscription, crypto-mobilisation or a formal second wave of partial mobilisation. He also did not specify how this assessment was reached. The Kremlin nevertheless dismissed Zelensky’s comments. Russian opposition media reported on 22 March that Russia plans to recruit at least 300,000 people to encircle Kharkiv city.

On 31 March, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree calling up 150,000 personnel for the routine spring conscription campaign. This is not unusual and is part of the normal twice-yearly conscription drive that takes place in the spring and autumn. It is important to note that Russian conscripts are not serving in Ukraine in significant numbers, as they are legally barred from serving in a foreign conflict and have not been deployed since the annexation of the occupied territories. Conscripts will therefore largely serve along the border regions and perform domestic security functions to free up combat units to serve in Ukraine. Nevertheless, once a conscript has completed their military service, they will become a formal reservist and therefore liable for future mobilisation. We assess that in the short term Moscow is more likely to continue relying on crypto-mobilisation efforts to sustain its war in Ukraine, rather than announce a second wave of partial mobilisation.

*Russia: Ukrainian drone strikes will increase domestic fuel shortage risks, global fuel prices. On 4 April, Reuters reported that Russia halved its gasoline exports (via rail) in March. Although Russia imposed a gasoline export ban at the end of February, it continued to export fuel to some of its economic partners. Concurrently, it reportedly increased gasoline imports from Belarus in March. Such measures likely reflect the government’s efforts to address a tightening fuel market due to increased domestic demand and growing refinery outages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes. In the past few weeks, Ukraine has sought to disrupt Russian oil production by intensifying drone attacks against Russian oil refineries, resulting in (an estimated) 14% of Russia’s oil refining capacity being partially halted at the end of March. US officials have reportedly asked Kyiv to stop these attacks, fearing they will drive global oil price volatility, though Washington DC has denied this. However, we assess that Ukraine will likely continue to target Russian oil infrastructure, increasing the risk of domestic fuel shortages and driving global fuel prices.

*Austria: Russian infiltration efforts will likely persist despite possible efforts to bolster security. On 1 April, Chancellor Karl Nehammer stated that he would convene Austria’s National Security Council on 9 April to evaluate the security risk posed by Russian intelligence operations in the country. His statement comes after an announcement on 29 March that former Austrian intelligence officer, Egisto Ott, was arrested on suspicion of spying for Russia. Ott has been accused of collaborating with likely Russian operative and former COO of Wirecard, Jan Marsalek. He is also accused of passing content from the smartphones of Austrian interior ministry officials to Russian intelligence in 2022. Russian infiltration of political parties and networks in Austria has become an increasingly pressing issue. While the Russia-friendly Freedom Party (FPÖ) is currently leading in opinion polls ahead of the general election to be held in Autumn, there are also longstanding Austro-Russian business ties and political relationships which provide plausible avenues for Russian espionage. We assess that these factors will continue to make Austria a target of Russian infiltration efforts despite a possible step-up in counter measures.

*Kazakhstan: Possible oil spill will likely sustain pressure on oil field operator, authorities. On 3 April, Kazakh Energy Minister Almasadam Sätqaliev stated that a reported oil spill in the Caspian Sea near one of the country’s largest oil fields remains unconfirmed. Sätqaliev disclosed that ecologists were taking water samples throughout the area for analysis. Galina Chernova, the director of a Kazakh ecological organisation, shared satellite imagery on 1 April which she claimed purported to show an oil spill near the offshore Kashagan oil field. Chernova assessed that the spill area measures around 2.7 square miles (7 sq km) and offered possible explanations as to how the supposed slick could have appeared, including accidentally during production. On 2 April, the operator of the Kashagan oil field, the North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC) consortium, denied reports of a spill. Nevertheless, we assess that ongoing concerns over the possibility of an oil spill and its potential environmental impacts will likely sustain pressure on NCOC and the Kazakh authorities in the short term, moderately increasing the risk of localised (and peaceful) protests. (Source: Sibylline)

 

06 Apr 24.  Ukraine’s Zelenskiy warns of dwindling air defence missiles. Ukraine could run out of air defence missiles if Russia keeps up its intense long-range bombing campaign, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned in remarks aired on Saturday.

The Ukrainian leader’s starkest warning to date of the deteriorating situation faced by his country’s air defences follows weeks of Russian strikes on the energy system, towns and cities using a broad arsenal of missiles and drones.

“If they keep hitting (Ukraine) every day the way they have for the last month, we might run out of missiles, and the partners know it,” he said in an interview that aired on Ukrainian television.

Zelenskiy, who has been appealing to allies for weeks to rush in more air defences, said that Ukraine had enough stockpiles to cope for the moment, but that it was already having to make difficult choices about what to protect.

He singled out in particular the need for Patriot air defence systems and said Ukraine needed 25 of them.

The sophisticated U.S. air defence system has been vital during Russian attacks with ballistic and hypersonic missiles which can hit targets within a matter of minutes.

His remarks followed a fresh spate of attacks that Ukrainian officials said killed civilians.

Two Russian missile and drone strikes, one in the early hours of Saturday and a second in the afternoon, killed eight people and wounded at least 10 more people in northeastern Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city.

In the eastern region of Donetsk, artillery shelling killed four people in the village of Kurakhivka including a 38-year-old woman and her 16-year-old daughter, and a 25-year-old man in the village of Krasnohorivka was killed, while in Odesa in the south, a missile strike killed one civilian.

Ukraine’s largest private power company DTEK says the strikes had hit 80% of its generating capacity and the grid has introduced rolling blackouts to stabilise the system.

‘WE WILL AGREE TO ANY OPTIONS’

The battlefield momentum has moved against Ukraine in recent months as Kyiv grappled with a slowdown in military assistance from the West and in particular from the United States.

“The situation is difficult, but nevertheless stabilized. The enemy does not advance: when it takes steps forward, ours repel (them), and it retreats. On the contrary, our guys are taking some steps forward,” he said.

Zelenskiy said he still believed that a major aid package would be approved by Congress where it has been stuck in deliberations since late last year facing determined Republican opposition.

“I still believe that we can get a positive vote in the United States Congress,” he said.

Asked by the interviewer about the possibility of Ukraine receiving the package in the form of a loan, he said: “We will agree to any options.”

He added that some artillery shells were being supplied to Ukraine under foreign initiatives that he did not name and that they were being used for defensive operations.

“We don’t have shells for counteroffensive actions, as for the defence – there are several initiatives, and we’re receiving weapons,” he said.

The interview was recorded next to a military fortification in northeastern Chernihiv region, which borders Russia.

It was not clear exactly which day the interview was recorded, but Zelenskiy met with a bipartisan group of members of Congress in the region on Friday.  (Source: Google/Reuters)

 

07 Apr 24. Russian forces get new batch of Su-34 fighter-bombers. The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS, to give its Russian acronym) recently received its new batch of Su-34 Fullback fighter-bombers, according to the Rostec state defense conglomerate. As noted by the conglomerate, this latest delivery, part of the fulfillment of the state defense order, underscores the critical role of the Su-34 in Russia’s frontline aviation firepower. Equipped with advanced avionics and weaponry, the Su-34 boasts capabilities for deploying cutting-edge aerial munitions such as glide bombs, extending the range of ground target engagement, and improving bombing accuracy. The Su-34, an evolution of the Soviet-era Su-27 Flanker, stands as one of Russia’s most advanced fighter-bomber platforms. Featuring a twin-engine, twin-seat configuration, and armored cockpit, the aircraft is well-suited for conducting tactical bombing, attack, and interdiction missions against a variety of targets, including small and mobile adversaries. (Source: Google/https://defence-blog.com/)

 

03 Apr 24. Ukrainian soldiers, engineers toil round the clock to build defences. Ukraine is working round the clock to build defensive fortifications to stop Russia’s troops advancing any further 26 months into their full-scale invasion. The Ukrainian government has allocated $509m this year to fortify both its border with Russia and the front line with Russian forces across its east and south; Prime Minister Denys Shmhyal promised $142m more on Tuesday.

In Chernihiv region to the north of the capital Kyiv, dozens of Ukrainian workers installed metal reinforcements and attached poles and plastic sheeting along a trench wall late last month while a digger cleared earth nearby.

“A bit further ahead is another line made up of ‘dragon’s teeth’, pyramidal obstacles to stop military hardware,” contractor Yuri Ilyashek said, describing the three-layered fortifications.

“And further still is the so-called anti-tank trench, very deep and very wide, hundreds of metres long.”

Russian troops poured across the nearby border in February 2022, bearing down on Kyiv before being beaten back. The area has since been regularly shelled.

With Russian forces pushing hard in the east and vital U.S. military aid held up by months of Republican resistance in Congress, the urgency has mounted.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has warned that Russia may plan to mount a new offensive this spring or summer.

Ukraine has put down 100,000 “dragon’s teeth” as part of defences stretching 2,000 km which allow for future advances, Oleksiy Kuleba, a deputy head of Zelenskiy’s office who is overseeing the fortifications, told Reuters.

“The situation is dynamic. There will always be the need to reinforce, build additional fortifications or change them. Work will continue and go on even after our victory,” he said.

In the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, one of the hottest front line sectors, work goes on around the clock.

“Drones sent by the aggressor keep flying over us,” said Maksym, an engineer and building inspector, as a crane lifts reinforced concrete into place and workers strip bark off logs.

“But we keep building. There is no other way.” (Source: Reuters)

 

04 Apr 24. Ukraine strikes may have hit 15% of Russian refinery capacity – NATO official. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries may have disrupted more than 15% of Russian capacity, a NATO official said on Thursday, adding that the alliance believed Moscow still lacked sufficient munitions and manpower to launch a successful offensive.

Russia and Ukraine have both used drones to strike critical infrastructure, military installations and troop concentrations in their more than two-year-old war, with Kyiv hitting Russian refineries and energy facilities in recent months with some strikes entering 1,000km (620 miles)into Russian territory.” In terms of damage, the strikes have probably disrupted more than 10% of Russia’s refinery capacity, maybe more than 15%. Depending on the extent of the damage, repairs could take considerable time,” the official told reporters on condition of anonymity.

“Fewer and fewer of these types of Russian energy, critical infrastructure…are safe from potential strikes,” the official said.

According to Reuters calculations, around 14% of Russia’s refining capacity has been shut down by drone attacks.

Damaged Russian refineries will get back to normal operations by early June, Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said, quoted by Interfax news agency.

HEAVY LOSSES

The NATO official said Russia was recruiting about 30,000 people a month to absorb heavy losses, but that while it maintained a significant advantage over Ukraine in terms of munitions, manpower and equipment, it was unlikely to accomplish any major breakthrough in the immediate term.

“They’re likely to be unable to mount any mount any significant offensive operation without another large-scale mobilisation,” the official said, adding that Moscow also had to handle its own munitions’ shortages.

Russia has stepped its attacks on civilian infrastructure in recent weeks and a drone attack on Thursday struck residential buildings in the city of Kharkiv and an energy facility in the surrounding region, killing several people and severing power for 350,000 residents, Ukrainian officials said.

The official said Moscow was likely to ramp up such strikes as it sought to degrade Ukraine’s air defence capabilities.

At a NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on Thursday, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba pleaded for alliance to free up available Patriot air defence systems.

“We expect they will likely continue to advance missile and drone strike packages to penetrate Ukrainian air defences and place pressure on Ukrainian air defense deployments, underlining the criticality of our aid for these systems to protect the Ukrainian facilities,” the NATO official said.

Moscow has turned to its allies, notably North Korea and Iran, to provide it with more weapons, including ballistic missiles.

When asked whether NATO had seen the transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia, the official said the alliance did not have that they had yet, but expected Tehran to go through with the transfer once mutual beneficial terms were agreed between the two sides.

“Iran has indicted it intends to do so and that it will ship ballistic missiles to Russia and we have no reason to believe they won’t follow through on that,” the official said.

Iran has denied already providing ballistic missiles to Russia after Reuters reported that it had provided Moscow with a large number of powerful surface-to-surface ballistic weapons, deepening military cooperation between the two U.S.-sanctioned nations.

(Source: Reuters)

 

04 Apr 24. NATO allies aim to send more air defence aid to Ukraine but make no concrete pledges. NATO alliance members agreed on Thursday to scour their arsenals for more air defence systems to protect Ukraine from Russian ballistic missile attacks, as the alliance marked a 75th anniversary overshadowed by the war on its borders.

“Allies understand the urgency,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said after Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met NATO counterparts and appealed for new additional air defence systems, especially U.S.-made Patriot missiles.

“Allies will now go back and look into their inventories, look into if there are any ways they can provide more systems, in particular Patriots, but also of course ensure that the systems which are already there have the ammunition but also the spare parts (they need),” Stoltenberg told a news conference.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said more support for Ukraine was especially important as countries like China, North Korea and Iran were supporting Russia’s efforts to build up its defence industrial base.

“I believe based on what I heard today that everyone, including the United States, is going to double back, and if necessary double down, on finding the resources that Ukraine continues to need,” Blinken said at a news conference, citing the need for air defence, as well as for artillery and munitions.

Neither official spelled out any specific pledge or aid target.

Earlier, as a ceremony with birthday cake and marching bands could not mask the sombre mood in Brussels, Kuleba told reporters: “I didn’t want to spoil the birthday party for NATO, but I felt compelled to deliver a very sobering message on behalf of Ukrainians about the state of Russian air attacks on my country.”

Overnight Thursday, a Russian drone attack struck residential buildings in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv and an energy facility in the region, killing several people and cutting power for 350,000 residents, Ukrainian officials said.

“NATO’s biggest battles to fight are still in the future, and we have to be ready for them,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told reporters.

A NATO official said Russia was likely recruiting about 30,000 additional personnel per month and could absorb losses on the battlefield and continue attacks. Russia, however, was still lacking munitions and manoeuvre units required for a successful major offensive, the official said on condition of anonymity.

On Wednesday, the NATO ministers agreed to start planning for a greater role in coordinating military aid to Ukraine to help it battle Russia.

“This is an ongoing discussion that we’ll have in the weeks ahead, and I imagine that you’ll see something at the summit when we come together in Washington in July,” said Blinken.

But it was far from clear whether a 100-bn euro, five-year fund proposed by Stoltenberg would be accepted by NATO members, who take decisions by consensus. Hungary has signalled opposition and other members have warned against duplicating bilateral and European Union aid efforts for Ukraine.

MESSAGE TO WASHINGTON

European leaders are anxious about the alliance’s future if Donald Trump beats incumbent President Joe Biden in the November U.S. election in November, but also about the multi-bn Ukraine aid package held up in the U.S. Congress.

“Europe needs North America for its security,” Stoltenberg said.

“At the same time, North America also needs Europe. European allies provide world-class militaries, vast intelligence networks and unique diplomatic leverage, multiplying America’s might.”

NATO began with 12 members from North America and Europe, founded in response to growing fears that the Soviet Union posed a military threat to European democracies during the Cold War.

At its heart is the concept of collective defence and that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all, giving U.S. military protection to Western Europe.

It has retaken a central role in world affairs after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, leading European governments to view Moscow once more as a major security threat.

NATO’s two newest members, Finland and Sweden, joined in direct response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In Moscow, the Kremlin’s spokesman said Russia and NATO were now in “direct confrontation” due to the alliance’s enlargement. ($1 = 0.9229 euros) (Source: Reuters)

 

04 Apr 24. Small uncrewed Ukrainian plane likely used in attack deep inside Russia – experts.

• Summary
• Small uncrewed plane likely used in Tatarstan strike
• UAV was likely a modified Aeroprakt A-22, experts say
• Attack was one of Kyiv’s deepest drone strikes in Russia to date
• Aeroprakt founder says possible one of its planes was modified

A Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) that hit Russia’s Tatarstan region this week was likely a modified Aeroprakt A-22 Ukrainian-made light aircraft, several experts said, offering insight into one of Kyiv’s deepest drone strikes to date.

Russia said the attack hit an industrial site’s dorms and hurt 13 people. A Kyiv intelligence source said it struck a site used to produce Russian long-range drones that have been used in the thousands to pound Ukraine during the 25-month war.

Russian media reported that two drones struck the dormitory at Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone, which is located more than 1,200 km from Ukraine’s northeastern city of Kharkiv near the Russian border. It was unclear what the second drone was.

Video shared online showed a winged aerial vehicle flying towards the site as onlookers watched before it exploded on impact.

Reuters was able to confirm the location of the video from the nearby buildings, roof, windows, road layout and greenery that match the satellite and file image, but it was not able to confirm the date of the video.

Janes, the defence intelligence company, told Reuters it had tentatively confirmed from the video that the aircraft used was the A-22, a family of two-seat ultra-light aircraft developed and manufactured by Aeroprakt in Ukraine.

Aeroprakt’s founder and chief designer Yuriy Yakovlyev told Reuters the silhouette of the drone looked similar to the A-22, but that his company was not involved in UAV production as it did not have any knowledge of producing UAV navigation or control systems.

He said it was possible someone had adapted one of the nearly 1,600 planes produced by Aeroprakt, which include 100 sold inside Russia before the war, to serve as an uncrewed vehicle.

A senior government official told Reuters earlier this year that Ukraine hoped to produce thousands of long-range drones in 2024, part of a priority defence programme in its war with Russia.

Unable to rapidly produce long-range missiles and with limited access to those made by Western allies, Kyiv has focused on developing long-range uncrewed vehicles to strike back at Russia, which has used a sprawling arsenal of missiles and drones to bomb Ukraine.

Ukraine has stepped up its attacks deep into internationally recognised Russian territory in recent months, focusing mainly on oil installations in an attempt to reduce Russia’s ability to raise revenues to fund its war.

SIMPLE TECHNOLOGY

A Ukrainian long-range developer who asked not to be named said adapting a light aircraft to function as an uncrewed aerial vehicle would not be difficult for a UAV company from a technological point of view.

“There’s nothing special in terms of engineering about this. You can have a piloted plane with auto-pilot and a navigation system from a smaller UAV and connect them up. It’s not a very hard task,” the drone developer said.

He also noted that Ukraine’s airspace was closed because of the war, which has made used light aircraft easier to buy.

Samuel Bendett, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Reuters that the A-22 was the likely aircraft used for the attack and that such planes could have relatively long ranges if properly refitted.

“There are also questions why such a significant target as the Alabuga site did not have good air defence protection, considering attacks that already took place on many targets inside Russia,” Bendett said.

That, he said, raised the possibility that Russia had seen the site as out of Ukraine’s range. It was unclear why air traffic controllers in Russia had missed an aircraft flying through its airspace, he added.

“It appears that using a civilian light aircraft converted to a UAV enabled this plane to fly relatively undisturbed in the Russian airspace – it may have looked like many other light civilian aircraft flying across Russia.”

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, noted it was still unclear where the aircraft had been launched and that it was even possible it had come from somewhere inside Russia.

He said one reason to use an aircraft instead of a UAV was that it might be able to carry a larger amount of ammunition or explosives.

“I think Ukraine will keep looking for cheap solutions. That could mean existing aircraft that they can find, it could be UAVs they have used before that they can adapt for this kind of mission. And also of course developing bespoke options as well,” he said.

He added that Russia would likely try to better defend facilities, forcing Ukraine to adapt. (Source: Reuters)

 

05 Apr 24. Ukraine launches ‘massive’ drone attack on Russian military airfield. Ukraine has launched a “massive” drone attack on a Russian military airfield in Rostov, damaging a power substation at the site, local officials reported. Russian air defence intercepted more than 40 drones targeting the airfield, located around 100 miles from the Ukrainian border, Vasily Golubev, the regional governor, posted on Telegram. Footage of the incident posted on social media shows a large fireball erupting into the air at night. Moscow’s defence ministry claimed it had downed 53 Ukrainian drones across five regions in total overnight. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

03 Apr 24. Netherlands buys €150m F-16 ammunition for Ukraine. Building on their previous donation of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, the Dutch will also provide ammunition to regain the initiative in Ukrainian airspace.

The Dutch Government announced it will purchase ammunition for Ukraine to go with its forthcoming fleet of F-16 Fighting Falcon jets.

Specifically, the Netherlands will purchase air-to-ground ammunition directly from the manufacturer, which amounts to €150m ($161.7m).

Ukraine’s F-16s have been an enduring topic of discussion as the West hopes to hand the Ukrainian Armed Forces a significant edge in its apparent stalemate with invading Russian forces.

This commitment comes just after Russia demonstrated localised air supremacy earlier this year, concluding its five-month-long offensive to capture Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. Not only does this indicate the Ukrainian Army’s lack of weaponry, but also the race to secure the skies in an attritional war.

This would likely be the first time this has happened in the war – a conflict marked by Mutual Air Denial, where neither side’s air forces have been able to operate outside of territory supported by ground troops.

F-16s to Ukraine

The F-16 Fighting Falcon originally entered service in the US Air Force in 1979, and has since been operated by more than 25 other countries.

Block 70/72 units are the latest production configuration, having been ordered by five countries so far. The platform incorporates new capabilities and structural upgrades that ensure the fighter can operate until at least 2060.

The aircraft has nine hardpoints for weapons payloads: one at each wing tip, three under each wing, and one centreline under the fuselage.

Air-to-surface missiles carried on the F-16 include Maverick, HARM and Shrike missiles, manufactured by Raytheon, and anti-ship missiles include Boeing Harpoon and Kongsberg Penguin.

Now with a total of 24 jets, of which the Netherlands provided six units in February, the fleet is being prepared for delivery to Ukraine. 18 fighters are intended for an F-16 training centre in Romania.

There is debate about whether the F-16s can actually operate in Ukraine, where there are concerns that the Ukrainians will not be able to maintain adequate support and logistics infrastructure for such sophisticated aircraft.

Critically, the Ukrainian Air Force will no doubt leverage infrastructure in Nato countries to avoid damage from Russian strikes. An F-16 centre is already established in Romania, where Ukrainian pilots will train on the US-made platforms. Nonetheless, F-16s are so widely used that spare parts and pipelines are already well established, according to GlobalData Defence Analyst Tristan Sauer, so there will be no issue of sourcing supplies. (Source: airforce-technology.com)

 

03 Apr 24. Finland signs Ukraine security deal, Zelenskiy warns of Russia troop plans. Finland’s president on Wednesday signed a 10-year security deal with Ukraine in Kyiv where President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he believed Russia planned to mobilise 300,000 new troops for its war by June. But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, quoted by Russian news agencies, said the Ukrainian president’s assertion about a new Russian mobilisation was untrue.

The pact signed by President Alexander Stubb and Zelenskiy made Finland the eighth NATO member this year to commit to long-term security cooperation and defence backing for Kyiv as it battles to hold back Russian forces.

Finland, which shares a 1,340-km (830-mile) border with Russia, joined NATO a year ago.

Stubb said Finland would also send 188 m euros ($203 m) in additional military aid, including air defences and heavy-calibre ammunition. That sum took Finland’s overall defence contribution to around 2 bn euros during the war.

“We are not giving this military support only for Ukraine to defend itself, we are giving this military support for Ukraine to win this war,” Stubb told a joint news conference in Kyiv.

Ukraine relies heavily on Western air defence systems and has faced a recent surge in Russian missile and drone attacks that have battered its energy system.

On the battlefield, Ukraine is on the back foot as military assistance from the United States stalls and Kyiv’s troops find themselves outgunned by a larger and better armed foe. Russia has inched forward.

ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIA IS PREPARING

Though he provided no evidence to back up his assertion, Zelenskiy told the news conference: “I can say that Russia is preparing to mobilise 300,000 military personnel by June 1.”

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And later, in his nightly video address, Zelenskiy said: “We clearly understand what Russia is preparing for, what they want, what they want to assemble soldiers for in their army.”

He said he had discussed plans and tactics with Ukraine’s top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, including “defending out positions, our pressure on Russian positions, our key plans for defensive and offensive actions in the near future”.

Russian President Vladimir Putin denied in December that there was a need for Moscow to conduct another wave of mobilisation, something that would be politically sensitive.

On Wednesday, the Russian defence ministry said more than 100,000 people had signed contracts with the army since the start of the year, including about 16,000 in the past 10 days following a deadly attack on a concert hall near Moscow.

Zelenskiy’s comments come as the Ukrainian parliament considers an overhaul of the rules governing how Ukrainian civilians are called up into the army.

This week, Zelenskiy signed legislation reducing the draft age to 25 from 27, expanding the number of people who can be called up to fight.

At the news conference, he said he did not think Ukraine needed to mobilise as many as 500,000 more people into the army, an idea floated late last year, but that he did not know yet how many were needed.

(Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)

 

04 Apr 24. Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Denies Use of Western Weapons in Tatarstan Attacks. On April 2, 2023, Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) reported drone strikes on drone production facilities in the Russian cities of Yelabuga and Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, located approximately 1,300 kilometers from the Ukraine-Russia border. Andrii Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence, clarified in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that the operations did not employ weapons supplied by Western partners.

The attacks, which resulted in damages to a dormitory and injuries to 13 students according to Russian state media, were met with international concern. The U.N. Secretary-General’s spokesperson, Stephane Dujarric, emphasized the need to halt attacks on civilian infrastructure. Ukraine, however, argued that the destruction of additional facilities was a consequence of Russian air defenses attempting to intercept the drones.

Highlighting the advancement of Ukraine’s UAV industry, Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced on April 1 that Ukraine has developed attack drones with a range exceeding 1,000 kilometers. The country aims to produce 1 m drones by 2024 to bolster its defense capabilities.

The U.S. stance on the issue was articulated by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who stated that the U.S. neither supports nor enables Ukrainian strikes outside its territory. This position aligns with reports that Washington cautioned Kyiv against attacking Russian oil refineries, fearing potential impacts on global oil prices.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky maintains that targeting Russian oil and weapons facilities forms part of a legitimate military strategy, asserting Ukraine’s right to self-defense using domestically produced weapons. The incident underscores the complexities of international warfare and the strategic use of indigenous military technologies in modern conflicts. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)

 

03 Apr 24. Ukraine’s allies not giving enough air defence, minister says.

• Summary
• Western help insufficient given scale of attacks, Kuleba says
• Ukraine seeks 5-7 Patriot systems to fend off Russian attacks
• Minister argues Patriots for Ukraine help prevent wider war

Ukraine’s partners are not providing enough air defence to protect against Russian missile attacks even though they have more than 100 Patriot systems in their own arsenals, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Wednesday.

In an interview with Reuters, Kuleba said he would raise the issue of Patriot missile defence systems in every one of a series of meetings with NATO counterparts over the next two days in Brussels.

In recent weeks, Russia has unleashed an increased barrage of attacks on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure, underscoring Kyiv’s urgent need for protection.

“Partners did provide us with their different (air defence) systems, we appreciate that, but it’s just simply insufficient, given the scale of the war,” Kuleba said.

He said Ukraine’s partners had more than 100 Patriot systems at their disposal but had so far not been willing to share even five to seven more – the number that Kyiv says is the minimum needed to provide significant additional protection.

“Is it such a big problem? Is it not feasible to provide Ukraine with the minimum request?” Kuleba asked.

Russia fired over 3,000 guided aerial bombs, 600 drones and 400 missiles at Ukraine in March alone, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday.

Kuleba said Russia’s attacks in March involved 94 ballistic missiles, which are much faster than more commonly used cruise missiles, and harder to shoot down.

“Come on, guys. I mean … this happens to us every day,” Kuleba said, summarising his message to Ukraine’s allies. “And the solution is there. It’s just an issue of political will. So someone has to make the decision.”

Kuleba said it was not clear to him why allies were so far not providing extra Patriots, especially as Kyiv’s partners did not face the missile threat that Ukraine faces every day.

He argued that such support would help defeat Russia and prevent a larger war across Europe.

“When I say that Europe will be at war and missiles will be falling on Brussels and other European cities. I’m not exaggerating. All of this is going to happen if Ukraine doesn’t win the war against Russia,” he said.

“So the best way to save your Patriots from intercepting missiles (over your countries) and your soldiers from dying is to send your Patriots to Ukraine and give Ukrainian soldiers everything they need.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow has no interest in invading other European countries.

Kuleba spoke as NATO foreign ministers met to discuss how to put military support to Ukraine on a longer-term footing.

Asked about a proposal by NATO boss Jens Stoltenberg – which diplomats say includes a plan for a 100 bn euro fund for Ukraine over five years – Kuleba said he welcomed support but it should represent new funds and not repurpose prior commitments.

He said NATO had struggled to raise 500 m euros for a Comprehensive Assistance Package to reform and equip Ukraine’s armed forces, so stepping up to 20 bn a year would be a “gargantuan” effort.

“If this particular initiative is to become reality, we have to make sure that this will be (a) new 100bn.” (Source: Reuters)

 

03 Apr 24. France denies showing readiness for Ukraine dialogue in Russia talks. France denied Russian claims that it expressed willingness to hold dialogue on Ukraine or discuss possible peace negotiations when the two countries’ defence ministers spoke on Wednesday.

Two years after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s defence ministry said, “Readiness for a dialogue on Ukraine was noted” in the call between France’s Sebastien Lecornu and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu.

It said a starting point for discussions could be the 2022 talks between the Russia and Ukraine sides in Turkey which ended without results.

“It is not true,” a French government source said. “At no moment did we show any willingness to dialogue on Ukraine or negotiations or anything like that.”

A French readout of the call, the officials’ first since October 2022 and initiated by Paris, said the discussion focused on the heightened terrorism threat following an attack in Moscow claimed by ISIS-K, an affiliate of Islamic State.

The Russian statement also said any notion of holding a meeting in Switzerland on achieving peace in Ukraine was “pointless” if Russia was not a participant. Kyiv has proposed a “world summit”, but has said Russia would not be invited.

Franco-Russian relations have deteriorated in recent months as Paris has increased its support to Ukraine, including signing a bilateral long-term security accord and promising to send more long-range cruise missiles.

President Emmanuel Macron has adopted a tougher position on Russia, vowing that Moscow must be defeated, and has not ruled out that European troops may one day go to Ukraine, although he has made clear that France has no intention of instigating hostilities against Russia.

The Russian statement said Shoigu noted any “practical implementation” of Macron’s suggestion last month of sending troops to Ukraine would “create problems for France.”

In contrast, the French defence ministry statement condemned the “war of aggression” launched by Russia on Ukraine.

“France will continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes and as intensely as needed,” it said.

Shoigu, according to the ministry statement, repeated Moscow’s contention that Russia believed there was a Ukrainian link to the mass shooting last month at a concert hall outside Moscow.

Paris has accused Russia of habitually spreading false information and this week said it would propose EU sanctions on Russians involved in spreading disinformation.

ISIS-K claimed responsibility for the attack, Ukraine denies any link and Western nations have dismissed any such connection to Kyiv.

With the Summer Olympics in Paris in July, France is on its highest security alert. The French statement said Paris was ready to increase cooperation to fight the terrorist threat. (Source: Reuters)

 

03 Apr 24. Nato is to start planning a $100bn military aid programme for Ukraine, according to the alliance’s head, despite the US urging caution over aspects of a proposal aiming to “Trump proof” western support. Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary-general, has backed an overhaul in which the alliance would oversee a 5-year support plan for Ukraine and take over management of the Ramstein Group, which the US set up to co-ordinate military supplies to Kyiv from about 50 western countries The proposal comes as western capitals scramble to find long-term structures to support Ukraine amid fears that Russia’s superior weaponry and manpower supplies are piling pressure on Kyiv’s frontline defences. “Today we didn’t take any final decisions on what format we will establish, but we agreed to initiate planning,” Stoltenberg told reporters after a day of talks with Nato foreign ministers. The US continues to want more information about Stoltenberg’s proposal and will engage on its specifics in additional meetings, said a person familiar with the Biden administration’s thinking. US secretary of state Antony Blinken used his interventions during the Brussels talks to express some concerns about the $100bn fund. But he did not oppose it outright, the person said, adding that the US wants to discuss it more. The US, alongside Germany, has long harboured concerns about an escalation that could drag Nato into the conflict, and resisted attempts to give the alliance a more direct role in supporting Kyiv.

But Germany’s foreign minister Annalena Baerbock on Wednesday said in response to a question about the $100bn proposal: “For us, it is essential that we pour the ad hoc structures into reliable, long-term structures.” Germany and the US have “moved a great deal in recent months”, according to one Nato official present during the discussions. Reception to Stoltenberg’s proposal was “mixed”, according to a person in the room. Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Belgium were among the countries voicing support for the idea. Meanwhile, Hungary’s foreign minister said Budapest was opposed to “proposals that might draw the alliance closer to war or shift it from a defensive to an offensive coalition”. The US said that it plans to remain in control of the Ramstein military co-ordination group, officially known as the Ukraine Defence Contact Group. John Kirby, US national security council spokesman, said it had been “critical in bringing together 50 some odd countries to contribute to Ukraine’s security assistance needs”. The Biden administration sees the effort to co-ordinate allies on Ukraine as an important example of America’s place in the world, he said. “It is bigger than Nato, it is bigger than the alliance,” Kirby said, noting that the contact group includes Nato members as well as Indo-Pacific countries and others. “What brought them together is American leadership, what’s keeping them together is American leadership.” Speaking after the ministerial discussions, Spain’s foreign minister José Manuel Albares said that he had voiced concern that the $100bn could duplicate other financial efforts — including by the EU. He added “other big countries” also raised this in the talks. “What we have to avoid is duplicity, double accountabilities, counting the money twice, or buying or doing the same things. The mood in the room was that we all want to make sure Ukraine has what it needs in terms of volume and in terms of time.” (Source: FT.com)

 

03 Apr 24. Ukraine lowers conscription age to fight acute soldier shortage. Volodymyr Zelensky signs bill to cut call-up age to 25 in bid to get more troops on the ground. The bill has been on the Ukrainian president’s table since it was approved by lawmakers in May 2023. It was not immediately clear on Tuesday what prompted him to sign it. Parliament has been discussing a separate bill to broadly tighten draft rules for months.

The move expands the number of civilians the army can mobilise into its ranks to fight under martial law, which has been in place since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Ukrainian troops are on the back foot on the battlefield, facing a shortage of ammunition supplies with vital funding from the US blocked by Republicans in Congress for months and the European Union failing to deliver promised ammunition on time.

Ukrainian soldiers face a shortage of ammunition as US military aid package stalls in Congress CREDIT: Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu via Getty Images

The signing of the legislation was not immediately announced by the president’s office. Parliament merely updated the entry for the bill on its website to read: “Returned with the signature of the president of Ukraine”.

Zelensky said last winter that he would only sign the bill if he was given a strong enough argument.

The Ukrainian leader said in December that the military had proposed mobilising up to 500,000 more Ukrainians into the armed forces, something for which the previous commander-in-chief had asked.

Oleksandr Syrskyi, the new head of the Ukrainian armed forces said last week that the figure was no longer up-to-date and that it had been “significantly reduced” after a review of resources.

Zelensky also signed two other bills. One requires men given waivers from military service on disability grounds to have another medical assessment and another will create an online database of people eligible for military service.

Both could help the military draft more fighters.

The number of volunteer fighters has fallen significantly since the start of the invasion CREDIT: Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu via Getty Images

A string of strict measures set out in an earlier draft bill were cut after a public outcry.

Zelensky has warned that Russia may plan another offensive later this spring or in summer, and Kyiv’s troops have been scaling up their efforts to build up strong defensive fortifications along a sprawling front line.

With the initial shock of the invasion long gone, Ukraine has faced a significant reduction in the flow of volunteer fighters and numerous cases of draft evasion have been reported. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

03 Apr 24. ‘Thousands’ join Russian army after Moscow terror attack . Russia has seen a major leap in the number of people joining the armed forces since last month’s deadly attack on a concert hall near Moscow, the defence ministry claimed.

In a statement, it said more than 100,000 recruits have signed up since the start of the year, including around 16,000 in the past 10 days alone.

“During interviews conducted over the past week at selection points in Russian cities, most candidates indicated the desire to avenge those killed in the tragedy that occurred on March 22, 2024 in the Moscow region as the main motive for concluding a contract,” the ministry said.

The Kremlin has repeatedly sought to blame Ukraine for the mass shooting – in which 144 people were killed at Crocus City Hall – a claim Kyiv and US intelligence have denied. The militant group Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

03 Apr 24. Foreign Secretary calls on NATO Allies to spend and produce more in the face of Russian aggression.

The Foreign Secretary will attend a meeting of the Alliance’s Foreign Ministers in Brussels.

• The Foreign Secretary will emphasise NATO’s unwavering support for Ukraine at a meeting of the Alliance’s Foreign Ministers in Brussels.
• David Cameron will encourage Allies to spend more, produce more and deliver more on defence in the face of continued Russian aggression and growing threats to international stability.
• NATO is stronger, more united and more important than ever as it celebrates its 75th anniversary and welcomes its 32nd member, Sweden.

The Foreign Secretary will reinforce that NATO has never been stronger, more united or more relevant than it is today when he travels to the NATO Foreign Ministers’ Meeting today (3rd April) as the Alliance celebrates 75 years since its founding.

As Russia continues to wage its illegal war against Ukraine, Lord Cameron will underline the need to sustain support for Ukraine, which is closer to NATO than ever. He will encourage NATO Allies to sign up to British-led initiatives to buy NATO standard missiles and munitions for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

This year marks 10 years since Allies committed to invest at least 2% of their GDP on defence spending at the NATO Summit in Wales. At an event jointly hosted with the Royal United Services Institute, the Foreign Secretary will celebrate NATO’s progress since 2014 in a speech that will encourage Allies to spend more on defence, step up support for Ukraine and ramp up defence industrial production.

All Allies agree that Ukraine will join NATO and the UK will continue work to ensure that it continues to take meaningful steps towards membership.

David Cameron, the Foreign Secretary said: “75 years after its creation, we are celebrating a NATO that has never been stronger or more important, especially following Sweden’s accession last month.

With Ukraine closer to NATO than ever, we must sustain the critical support Ukraine needs to win the war. Allies need to step up and spend more on defence in the face of continued Russian aggression and a more dangerous world. “

The Foreign Secretary will welcome Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström to the NATO family following Sweden’s historic accession to the Alliance last month. Sweden chose to break 200 years of neutrality in response to Russia’s aggression, showing the Alliance will only grow stronger in the pursuit of collective defence in the Euro-Atlantic.

As NATO rises to face the challenges of a more unstable world, the UK is deepening its partnerships with countries in the Indo-Pacific including Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the Republic of Korea, who will join the meeting. NATO will continue to strengthen its longstanding relationship with the EU who will attend the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting to engage with NATO on shared challenges.

Since the establishment of NATO in on 4th April 1949, NATO has had British DNA, with its first headquarters in London and its first Secretary General British. NATO remains the bedrock of UK defence: the UK contributes to every single NATO mission and commits almost all of its armed forces to protecting the 1 bn people across every inch of Allied territory. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

 

02 Apr 24. In Ukraine, ‘shoot-and-scoot’ tactics helping Caesars survive. Ukraine has lost less than 10% of the truck-mounted Caesar howitzers it received from France and Denmark, with greater mobility resulting in a higher survival rate than for some other self-propelled or towed systems, according French manufacturer KNDS Nexter.

Losses for some other self-propelled or towed systems in Ukraine’s war with Russia amount to nearly 30%, the company said in a statement to Defense News, without providing specifics.

The French-built Caesar is the world’s lightest 155mmm self-propelled gun at 18 metric tons, according to Nexter. The howitzer can fire six shells within a minute before packing up and moving away, an artillery tactic known as shoot-and-scoot, and evolving battlefield threats mean that mobility is the Caesar system’s best protection rather than the cannon’s range, Nexter said.

“Use of drones and loitering munitions has become a real threat 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the front, where the Caesar operates,” Nexter said in the statement. “Its light weight and ability to leave its position in less than a minute to avoid counter-battery fire are therefore major assets.”

Ukraine has received 55 of the truck-mounted systems, with 36 supplied by France, including six purchased this year, and another 19 donated by Denmark. Besides the French cannon, Ukraine operates 155mm artillery systems including the towed American M777 and self-propelled systems such as the German Panzerhaubitze 2000, the Polish Krab and Sweden’s Archer.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu visited the Nexter site in Versailles outside Paris on Tuesday to discuss the French-U.S.-led coalition to supply artillery and ammunition to Ukraine.

France, Denmark and Ukraine have agreed on financing the purchase of 78 Caesar systems for Ukraine in 2024 as part of the coalition, Lecornu said last week. That includes the six already delivered this year.

Nexter has increased monthly Caesar production to six from two before the war, and the target “in the time to come” is 12 cannons per month, Lecornu said in a press conference following the visit. The target is to reach the new capacity within a year, and Nexter has already made investments to boost the output of the system’s components, the company said.

“For the time being, all Caesar production is earmarked for Ukraine and for replenishing stocks of the French Army, which may decide to make further divestments to Ukraine,” Nexter said.

France in December ordered 109 new-generation howitzers from Nexter for about €350m, with first delivery expected in 2026. The updated cannon will have an armored cabin to protect against mines and small-caliber arms, based on the feedback from French deployments in Afghanistan and Africa’s Sahel region.

The Caesar MkII will get a new 460 HP engine more than double as powerful as the previous 215 HP one, a new six-wheel chassis from military-vehicle maker Arquus, and updated fire control software. The howitzer will keep its 155mm cannon, with a range of more than 40 kilometers, and will remain air-transportable, according to France’s armaments directorate.

After a Ukrainian advantage in artillery fire in the summer of 2023, Russia gained the upper hand, and Lecornu said in January the shell ratio was nearly one-to-six in favor of Russia. Artillery has been the greatest killer in the war in Ukraine, accounting for more than 70% of casualties.

Ukraine’s artillery deficit contributed to recent setbacks on the frontline, including the withdrawal from the city of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region in February. A stronger artillery capability is one of Ukraine’s key needs to win the war, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said in January. (Source: Defense News)

 

02 Apr 24. Germany to support Ukraine with 180,000 artillery shells via Czech initiative. Germany will support Ukraine with 180,000 rounds of artillery shells as a contribution to a Czech-led plan to buy ammunition for Ukraine, with a price tag of 576m euros ($618m), the defence ministry said. The most pressing need for Ukraine two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion has become artillery ammunition, which is running low as the sides use heavy cannon fire to hold largely static, entrenched positions along the 1,000-km (620-mile) front line.

Last month, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius announced a 478m euro aid package for Ukraine, excluding the support for the Czech ammunition initiative.

“The total value of both support measures is therefore over €1bn,” a spokesperson for the ministry told Reuters.

More countries have been signing up to the Czech initiative to source hundreds of thousands of rounds from outside Europe for Ukraine.

(Source: Reuters)

 

02 Apr 24. Nato is drawing up plans to secure a five-year military aid package of up to $100bn, in a bid to shield Ukraine from “winds of political change” that could usher in a second Trump presidency. The so-called Mission for Ukraine proposal, which will be discussed by Nato foreign ministers on Wednesday, is being put forward by the secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg. According to five alliance diplomats briefed on the plan, it would co-ordinate an estimated $100bn in support committed by the 32 members of the military alliance. Stoltenberg has pitched the proposal as a means “to shield the mechanism against the winds of political change”, according to people briefed on his remarks. If approved, it would also give the alliance control of the US-led Ramstein weapons support group and allow it to manage the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine for the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The Norwegian secretary-general, who will step down from his role this autumn, is aiming to reach agreement before the Nato leaders’ summit in Washington in July. “This will be crossing a Rubicon. Nato will have a role in coordinating lethal support to Ukraine,” said one of the diplomats. “I see consensus emerging and I think it will be there by the time we get on the plane to Washington.” The mission proposal comes as the Biden administration struggles to get approval from Congress for a bilateral $60bn Ukraine military support package, which Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has openly spoken against ahead of presidential elections in November.

Many allies see the stalemate as a harbinger of how US policy towards Kyiv would shift under a Trump presidency. It has been drawn up as Nato allies fret about the state of the conflict in Ukraine, where Russia has regained the initiative on the ground, outmanning and outgunning Ukrainian forces. The US share of the $100bn would be significantly less than the bilateral aid package being held up, the diplomats said. Debates are ongoing about the structure of financing, with some pushing for the same breakdown used to fund Nato’s shared budget — by which the US would need to provide a little over $16bn. “$100bn for the next five years to support the Ukrainian force of the future,” said the diplomat, who said that the Nato joint budget coefficients could be used to calculate individual shares of the total spending. “It solves a burden-sharing problem.” It is envisaged as a means to both lock in long-term financing ahead of Trump’s potential election, and to give Kyiv a concrete deliverable from the summit, in lieu of progress towards its desired membership of Nato, which is seen as impossible by a sizeable number of alliance members. “Foreign ministers will discuss the best way to organise Nato’s support for Ukraine, to make it more powerful, predictable, and enduring,” a Nato official said, adding that discussions are expected to continue in the run-up to the July summit. At present, much of the western weaponry provided to Ukraine is managed by the US-led Ramstein Group, officially known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which meets regularly to discuss how best to co-ordinate bilateral deliveries. Two of the diplomats cautioned that it requires the backing of all 32 members and there is likely to be months of negotiations ahead that could see parts of the proposal scaled back. Some resistance is expected from states that have opposed providing weapons to Ukraine, such as Hungary, and those that have been wary of any steps that would give Nato, or imply, a direct role in the conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to portray the conflict as a war between Russia and Nato. “We are continuing to work with our friends in Europe and Canada to ensure that support [to Ukraine] will keep flowing. That is the focus inside Nato HQ. I don’t see anyone letting their foot off the gas,” said Julianne Smith, US ambassador to Nato. “I see countries coming forward with fresh ideas every week . . . I expect that to be the focus of the ministerial that starts tomorrow.” (Source: FT.com)

 

02 Apr 24. Ukraine has carried out its longest-range drone strikes in Russia more than two years into Moscow’s full-scale war, injuring at least a dozen people in an attack on an industrial facility and a refinery more than 1,300km behind enemy lines. Ukrainian drones on Tuesday hit the Alabuga special economic zone in Tatarstan, which is home to a facility producing Iranian-designed Shahed drones that Russia uses for attacks on Ukraine. At least 12 people were injured in an on-site dormitory for students, according to state newswire Tass. Videos posted on social media showed one of the drones in Alabuga crashing into a building, followed by a fiery explosion. Russia’s third-largest oil refinery in the nearby city of Nizhnekamsk was also damaged in the attack. A Ukrainian drone hit the refinery’s primary oil processing plant, causing a fire that emergency services put out in 20 minutes, according to state newswire RIA Novosti. The terminal’s refining capacity is about 8mn tonnes of oil a year, roughly half the total output at the plant. The regional government of Tatarstan governor has claimed neither site sustained any serious damage. Ukraine has stepped up attacks in recent weeks on Russia’s oil refineries, terminals, depots and storage facilities in an attempt to limit Moscow’s revenue from energy sales as well as fuel supplies for its invading army. The US has repeatedly warned Kyiv against the attacks, fearful of their impact on global oil prices and the potential for retaliation. Dmitry Peskov, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, told reporters that Russia’s army “is working on minimising this threat and eventually simply eliminating it”, reported Interfax. The long-range drone used in Tuesday’s attack was made by Ukraine’s military intelligence engineers, a person familiar with the matter told Financial Times. “Ukraine continues to destroy military forces on the territory of the aggressor state using its own means,” they said.  Alexander Kots, a prominent Russian pro-war blogger, said the drones appeared to be Ukrainian-made Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat light aircraft, packed with explosives and retrofitted as drones. The technology and manufacturing of Ukraine’s long-range weaponry is shrouded in secrecy, with Ukrainian officials declining to release details. However, the drones currently being used are at least partly based on captured Shahed drones. Ukrainian military engineers dismantled downed Iranian drones in October 2022 and Ukraine’s strategic infrastructure minister Oleksandr Kamyshin announced in November that Ukraine was now mass producing Shahed analogues.  In May 2023, Ukraine started sending its own drones into Moscow as a show of force. By September, it began to hit military-related targets inside Russia. Since the start of this year, domestic-made attack drones have struck 10 Russian oil refineries and depots as well as three metal and mining plants. (Source: FT.com)

 

02 Apr 24. Ukraine defence industries are set to integrate with the West.

Through the newly established UK-Ukraine TechExchange, founder and investor Andriy Dovbenko expands Ukraine’s defence industrial opportunities.

Numerous Ukrainian start-ups are set to benefit from new ties with British defence circles now that the UK-Ukraine TechExchange – a programme ultimately designed to innovate Ukraine’s frontlines – launched at the end of February 2024.

Its London-based Ukrainian founder and investor, Andriy Dovbenko, alluded to his objectives and the problems underlying Ukraine’s war effort in an exclusive interview just after the programme sprang into existence.

TechExchange is a unique programme created with a goal in sight: to empower Ukraine’s Armed Forces by providing a technological edge over invading Russian forces. In doing so, Dovbenko hopes to empower Ukrainian start-ups by forging ties with the UK’s growing defence economy.

“I felt like the United Kingdom was quite vibrant especially to Ukraine’s venture capitalist environment, so we talked to some of those guys and helped them to connect to the UK investment market.”

Ukraine’s defence environment is largely state-owned, which he suggested has proven effective, but there is also reliance on private companies too, which have brought about enormous innovation to Western markets.

“If these [Ukrainian] companies don’t have the possibility to integrate into some broader community, [and] hopefully [when they] win the war, they will maybe have the option to sell this technology. But it will not be a very good outcome for them,” he anticipated.

However, “if they manage to build and integrate with the big companies, with some buyers outside of Ukraine, with the proper corporate structures, with institutional investors who will provide, not only money but expertise, this may allow them to grow.”

TechExchange endorses cheaper technologies

“Another part of this was that we’ve seen some good interest in UK companies to try to test their technology in Ukrainian battlefields because it’s the best testing ground now. It’s a bit sad, but it’s the reality.

“Most companies have some unique qualities about them, but many companies try to compete in very similar fields. It’s just the way to do it better, quicker, smarter and cheaper – cheaper is very important, in many cases – but in some cases, no, you just build stuff which is up to one and a half m dollars and it’s still a UAV [uncrewed aerial vehicle] system.

Meanwhile, TechExchange’s first Ukrainian cohort include:

• Pilotechnika, a Ukrainian customised uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) company that responds to Ukraine’s specific military requirements.
• Skyeton, Ukraine-based manufacturer of unmanned aerial systems (UAS), providing accurate aerial data for precise ground intervention.
• Zvook, Ukrainian AI-powered acoustic sensor company used for detecting drones, missiles and other artillery.
• Transimpex, Ukrainian demining start-up clearing land affected by armed conflict.

Dovbenko continued to emphasise the cost of producing systems as a key consideration:

“If you’re talking about First Person View (FPV) drones [for example], in reality, the cheapest way to [source them] is to buy the Chinese one, reprogramme it, change it a bit, and it will cost less than $1,000. It still will work its purpose on the battlefield, because basically, it was replaced. It’s like a smart artillery shell with a good operator actually, it could be quite precise.”

Outpacing Russia’s war machine

The problem with Russia is that they have a required industrialised production of all their systems at an extensive scale.

According to the Washington-based think tank, in a piece published in October last year, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace claimed that for the first time in modern history, Russia is set to spend 6% of gross domestic product on the military, and defence spending will exceed social spending.

“I’m not only talking about normal artillery shells,” Dovbenko continued, “which they produce at a great amount, but much less safer than Western examples, but they are much cheaper, and they can be produced much, much quicker. But the same goes with drones. They have these two land sets for surveillance, which are quite developed, we should recognise that and they are being produced on an industrialised scale.”

Whereas, in Ukraine, “drones and some similar technologies are produced by the state, but there is still great reliance of many private companies, which produce in many cases, some good stuff, but they don’t benefit from economies of scale, because it’s not only funding to expand your production, but it’s also not very safe, because again, you can be bombed.

“So that’s what its like at this very moment. I would say Ukraine is under-supplied, not only by conventional weapons, but also about the biases, like our autonomic new weapons. And that’s why that’s one of the reasons whereas the Ukrainian forces just retreated from the Avdiivka. It’s a lack of weaponry.” (Source: army-technology.com)

 

01 Apr 24. Russia to start from scratch on some submarine parts amid sanctions. Russia’ Ministry of Industry and Trade has announced three tenders for submarine parts in a move that appears to be driven by the country’s difficulties in obtaining foreign technology.

According to a March post on the official procurement website, 885M-class boats — otherwise known as fourth-generation Yasen-M nuclear submarines — are in need of parts for an auxiliary electric propulsion system or AEPS. This one contract is worth 286m rubles (U.S. $3m).

The ministry explained that during development work, foreign-made components were used as part of the AEPS because the domestic industry was unable to provide the required parts.

The West has hit Russia with economic sanctions over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, making it difficult and sometimes impossible for the country to procure foreign-made components. As such, Russia is unable to carry out subsequent serial deliveries and repairs of the AEPS.

To overcome this, the ministry has proposed the creation of a modified AEPS based on locally made components — essentially the production of a new system. The move would see industry make Russian analogs of foreign-sourced nodes for a static frequency converter with a microprocessor control system as well as for a propulsion panel with a switching unit.

The nodes for the static frequency converter include the microprocessor control system of the AEPS, the secondary power supply system, the local control panel and the power unit.

The propulsion panel and switching unit nodes include an instrument for measuring insulation resistance and a section of the propulsion panel.

The ministry noted the propulsion electric motor and the transformers with a rotating field will not change in this system.

The work is to take place in four stages and conclude by Nov. 26, 2027. The approximate date for the implementation of the new system is 2028.

Remote control

The second tender, valued at 295m rubles, involves the creation of remote control devices for circuit breakers, which provide protection against electrical overloads, short circuits and the like.

Some Russian naval vessels currently use switches from foreign companies, including France’s Schneider Electric and the Switzerland-based firm ABB.

The ministry noted the Russian-made VA16M circuit breakers cannot fully replace foreign-made switches since they do not come with remote control devices.

With Russian versions, the ministry could increase the service life and reliability of the electronic level controller, reduce operating costs due to the increase in scheduled maintenance intervals of the controller, and move toward full automation of the controller.

The work for this potential contract would end by Nov. 30, 2026.

Emergency power

The ministry also published a tender for 444m rubles to modify the main components of the static inverter POS-650 for the 955A (Borei-A) and 885M (Yasen-M) submarine classes. This would also replace foreign-made options, which the ministry noted are difficult to source.

A static inverter is commonly used as an emergency power system.

The main modifiable components of the POS-650 include the transistor modular switch; power switchgear; upper-level control system; power output measurement system; AC filter unit; power cables and connectors; and the cooling system.

The government will determine the final composition and number of modified POS-650 components needed during the first phase of this effort, which involves developing technical solutions based on the results of an analysis of existing POS-650 components and the availability of domestic production.

The contract work is to conclude by Nov. 26, 2027. The estimated time frame for the system’s implementation is 2028. (Source: Defense News)

 

01 Apr 24. Russian assault piles pressure on fragile Ukrainian defensive line in the east. A key Ukrainian defensive line on the eastern front appears to have partially fallen to Russian forces in the past week, according to a British defense intelligence statement and military bloggers quoting sources on the ground.

The United Kingdom’s defense intelligence agency on Saturday released an unusually negative assessment of Kyiv’s fortunes near the city of Avdiivka, which fell to Russian forces in mid-February. The UK statement, which was shared on X, said: “Russian forces have maintained a gradual advance West of Avdiivka. In late March 2024, they almost certainly took control of two villages – Tonenke and Orlivka – and are continuing to contest others in the area.”

The agency added that Russia had significantly more personnel and munitions in the area than Ukraine and was able to replenish their forces by 30,000 troops a month.

While the villages are not in themselves of strategic significance and struggled to hold a few hundred residents before the war, they formed part of the defensive line that Kyiv has fought bitterly to hold after their forced withdrawal from Avdiivka. Their apparent fall in just over a month after a prolonged and brutal Russian assault is indicative not only of Russian momentum, but also the fragility of Ukraine’s defensive lines.

The UK statement marks a particularly dire analysis of Ukraine’s fortunes, at a time when Kyiv’s prospects in the conflict are looking increasingly bleak.

The Ukrainian military is desperate for weapons and money, as some $60 bn worth of military aide has been held up in Washington by isolationist Republicans aligned with former US President and current frontrunner for the GOP nomination Donald Trump.

President Zelensky told the Washington Post on Friday that no US aid “means we will go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps.”

Kyiv’s soldiers on the front lines are in pressing need of ammunition to fend off Russia’s latest salvos. While the European Union has attempted to fill the void created by partisan bickering in Congress, the bloc must overcome its own internal disagreements on military aid to Kyiv.

Ukraine’s General Staff has not directly commented on the British assessment, but their Monday update discussed fighting for the village of Umanske, about 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) to the west into Ukrainian territory from Tonenke.

Ukraine’s military declined to comment on who is currently in control of Tonenke in response to a question from CNN.

Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov posted on social media what he said was footage from a battle to the west of Tonenke.

In a subsequent phone conversation on Monday, Butusov told CNN that Russian forces had held Tonenke for “a while now,” adding, “I cannot say the frontline in the area has been broken but it is being pushed and is gradually moving back where the Russians succeed.”

Ukraine’s General Staff also said their forces had repelled attacks in the areas of Berdychi, Semenivka, Pervomaiske and Nevelske, a list of villages across that frontline, marking a series of Russian attempts to perforate Ukrainian defenses. Troops CNN spoke to in frontline areas expressed concerns about the lack of Ukrainian defensive positions, personnel and munitions.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank, reported Sunday that Russian forces had conducted a “large-mechanized assault” near Tonenke on Saturday, committing 36 tanks and 12 armoured personnel carriers. The ISW said the Ukrainian forces appeared to have repelled the Russian mechanized assault, an apparent reference to the Umanske attack.

Further indications of Ukraine’s worsening position came when both Ukrainian and Russian bloggers said Russian forces made significant progress towards Chasiv Yar, the main Ukrainian stronghold outside the city of Bakhmut, which Russia captured after a months-long and grueling battle in May last year.

Multiple Ukrainian military bloggers wrote Sunday about the tough fight for Chasiv Yar, with one, named Chameleon, warning the distance “to the enemy positions is about 650 meters (2,000 feet).” The same distance between forces was reported by pro-Russian blogger Operation Z.

(Source: Defense News Early Bird/CNN)

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