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Military And Security Developments
Mar 28.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
- BAKHMUT: Russian forces are making slow and incremental gains west of Bakhmut as well as further south-west of Avdiivka
- STRIKES: Ukrainian officials claim that Patriot systems shot down Russia’s new Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missiles over Kyiv
- SPILLOVER: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka discussed a hypothetical attack against the Suwałki gap, though this is highly unlikely to occur in the short-to-medium term
- FORECAST: Kyiv has outlined the key points in the revised draft law on mobilisation, including reducing the age limit for mobilisation from 27 to 25 years of age
- BAKHMUT: Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have marginally advanced west of Bakhmut and are making slow but steady gains in the villages of Bohanivka and Ivanivske. Russian sources meanwhile claim larger advances were made in the same area on 27 March, including along the O-0506 road that runs between Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar along a 0.7-mile (1.15km)-deep and 1.1-mile (1.85km)-wide advance. While Russian forces claim that they now control the majority of Ivanivske and are approaching the suburbs of Chasiv Yar, we cannot confirm the extent of these recent advances. Meanwhile, Russian forces have also claimed marginal advances north-east of Bakhmut along the Siversk axis, namely west and north-east of Vesele, located around 13 miles (21km) to the north-east of Bakhmut. However, this remains unconfirmed.
- DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 27 March shows that Russian forces advanced to the north-west in the vicinity of Berdychi and Orlivka, located to the north-west and west of Avdiivka, respectively. Russian pro-Kremlin sources have claimed over the past few days that Russian forces also entered Semenivka, located five miles (8km) to the north-west of Avdiivka, though this remains unconfirmed. Meanwhile, geolocated footage posted on 27 March confirms that Russian forces have progressed in central Novomykhailivka, located around six miles (10km) south-west of Donetsk City.
- KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
- OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
- SOUTHERN: Nothing significant to report
- STRIKES: Overnight on 27-28 March, Ukrainian forces intercepted 26 of 28 drones launched by Russian forces over Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odesa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. The drone attack damaged residential buildings and civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv; drone debris reportedly hit residential areas in Zaporizhzhia. In Dnipropetrovsk’s Nikopol district, the authorities reported damage to residential buildings and power lines. Russia also launched three Kh-22 cruise missiles, one Kh-3P anti-radar missile and one S-300 missile; there is no indication that Ukrainian air defences intercepted the missiles.
- STRIKES: Early on 27 March, Russian forces launched 13 Shahed drones against Ukraine. Ukrainian air defences destroyed ten drones over Kharkiv, Kyiv and Sumy oblasts. Overnight on 25-26 March, Russia also attacked Ukraine with 12 Shahed drones and two S-300 missiles. Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed all 12 drones over Kharkiv and Mykolaiv oblasts; it is likely that they failed to intercept the missiles. The local authorities reported that a Russian ballistic missile struck Mykolaiv later on 27 March.
- STRIKES: On 27 March, a Ukrainian air force spokesperson, Ilya Yevlash, stated that Ukrainian forces possess the means to intercept the Russian 3M22 ‘hypersonic’ Tsirkon cruise missile. Yevlash stated that this feat is particularly achievable with the French SAMP/T and US Patriot air defence systems. Reports indicate that Russian forces attacked Kyiv with two Tsirkon missiles on 25 March; this would mark the second time that such missiles have been used since the start of the war, the first being on 7 February.
- STRIKES: The Tsirkon is a new sea-launched missile; it is primarily an anti-ship weapon but also has littoral attack capabilities. The Tsirkon has a reported range of up to 625 miles (1,000km) and can reach an alleged maximum speed of Mach 9. Should Yevlash’s latest statements be corroborated, the fact that these missiles were successfully intercepted would likely confirm the effectiveness of the Western-made air defence system against new Russian missiles, including so-called ‘hypersonic’ systems. However, in an interview with Politico, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stressed Ukraine’s ongoing shortage of air defence systems, particularly Patriot systems. Kuleba warned that the scarcity of such systems and the shortage of air defence ammunition is responsible for the country’s growing vulnerability to Russian strikes.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- AID: Ukraine’s defence ministry announced on 26 March that the first meeting of a coalition for armoured vehicles took place in Warsaw (Poland). The initiative has four focus areas that are assigned different tasks. These include the supply of weapons and ammunition for vehicles, maintenance and repair works, crew and technical personnel training, as well as developing effective strategies for using the vehicles on the battlefield.
- AID: Notably, Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Ivan Havryliuk emphasised the significance of the initiative given the problems with repairing foreign armoured vehicles. He also added that Kyiv seeks to create an efficient repair base for Western armoured vehicles in Ukraine as soon as possible. This would likely streamline and simplify the process of repairing the equipment; this would possibly entail the vehicles returning to combat sooner.
- SPILLOVER: On 26 March, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka discussed a hypothetical attack against the Suwałki gap, which lies between Poland and Lithuania, separating the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus. Lukashenka asked troops stationed along the border about the width of the corridor and then implied that in the event of an attack, Belarus would have to confront the Baltic states and seize part of Poland. He made these remarks during a conversation with the commander of Belarus’ north-western operational command while on an official visit to an area of Belarus bordering Lithuania.
- SPILLOVER: Lukashenka’s comments are highly likely rhetorical and intended to bolster regional tensions with Belarus’ NATO neighbours; they are less likely to represent a credible threat in the short-to-medium term. It is highly unlikely that the remarks indicate immediate plans to attack the corridor. However, they possibly underscore that Russia and Belarus are actively considering and planning for a major confrontation along this frontier in the longer term. The Suwałki gap is strategically significant; if Russian and/or Belarusian forces were to seize control of the corridor, this would isolate the Baltic states from the rest of NATO. However, this scenario remains highly unlikely for the foreseeable future given Russia’s limited capability.
FORECAST
MOBILISATION: On 27 March, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) detailed the key points in the revised draft law on mobilisation, noting that it provides for the mobilisation of citizens between 25 and 60 years of age, down from the previous 27-year-old cap. It also proposes the introduction of basic military training in higher education institutions from 2025, though certain citizens will be exempt. This likely aims to ensure that citizens have basic military instruction in case the war protracts beyond 2024 or if Russia re-invades. In addition, citizens over the age of 18 can choose when they undergo basic military service and will receive a deferral until they reach conscription age regardless of whether they undertake basic military training.
Ultimately, as the war protracts and the attritional nature of the fighting strains Ukraine’s personnel, Kyiv is increasingly likely to reduce the age limit for conscription in the coming months and years. The necessity of manning the frontline indefinitely, particularly considering Russia’s demographic and human resource advantages, will likely increase pressure on the civilian leadership to agree to a highly unpopular expansion of mobilisation. However, a further expansion of mobilisation legislation beyond the draft law currently being debated is likely to be a longer-term issue in late 2024 or 2025.
Separately, Ukrainian lawmaker Yaroslav Zheleznyak disclosed on 27 March that the parliamentary security committee has reviewed over 3,500 amendments of the legislation and that it is 82% ready. He added that the committee plans to consider the remaining points later on 28 March. As such, there is still a possibility that some elements of the legislation could change. For further analysis on the legislation.
Mar 26.
Forecast Executive Summary
- In our most likely three-month scenario, positional fighting continues to prevent major battlefield breakthroughs on either side.
- In our most likely 12-month scenario, the war evolves into a broadly stable attritional conflict that protracts into 2025.
- The Kremlin has sought to frame President Vladimir Putin’s re-election as a de facto referendum on the war in Ukraine. As such, it has indicated Moscow’s readiness to continue fighting a protracted conflict for the foreseeable future; we therefore assess that the risk of future mobilisation rounds has increased moderately. Meanwhile, increasingly hawkish French rhetoric towards Russia has triggered debates over Western deployments to Ukraine, though these remain highly unlikely in the short term.
- Russian forces launched their largest missile and drone strike package against Ukrainian energy infrastructure this month, resulting in widespread power outages. Russian forces are likely targeting said infrastructure to undermine Ukraine’s military-industrial production; this strategy will have knock-on impacts for business operations in the coming month, particularly amid air defence shortages.
Other key triggers, warnings and indicators to watch in April include ramped up mobilisation efforts in both Russia and Ukraine, the approaching mud season (which will likely slow, but not prevent, Russian offensive advances) and growing Ukrainian air defence munition shortages.
Mar 25.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
- OFFENSIVES: Russian forces are committing significant resources to maintain their current momentum and exploit advantages, despite ongoing preparations for the summer offensive
- STRIKES: A Russian missile temporarily entered Polish airspace on 23-24 March during a large-scale attack, though this is highly unlikely to trigger a significant escalation
- MOBILISATION: Opposition media reported that Russia intends to increase recruitment to prepare for future operations against Kharkiv; while the risk of partial mobilisation is increasing, Moscow will likely rely on crypto-mobilisation to reinforce losses in the short-to-medium term
- FORECAST: The single largest Russian missile and drone attack against Ukrainian energy infrastructure has led to widespread power outages across the country; energy security is likely to be undermined in the coming months
- OFFENSIVES: On 22 March, Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Pavlyuk stated that Russian forces are committing all their available forces to the Avdiivka, Bakhmut and Lyman axes in order to retain the battlefield initiative. Pavlyuk stated that Russian forces have amassed around 50,000 personnel near Avdiivka, around 50,000 near Bakhmut and around 100,000 along the Oskil-Kreminna axis. Russian forces are also reportedly attempting to create a grouping of 50,000 personnel in western Zaporizhzhia oblast as well.
- OFFENSIVES: On 21 March, Ukrainian milblogger Kostyantyn Mashovets assessed that Russian forces are also planning for most of their ‘strategic reserves’ to be operational ahead of the summer offensive, but that they are unlikely to be fully equipped. For example, Mashovets claimed that Russia will only be able to supply between 55-60% of the equipment needed for the 44th Army Corps by the end of 2024, which will form part of this ‘strategic reserve’. It remains unclear how Russia will deploy strategic reserve formations to support military operations in 2024. However, they are likely to support the summer offensive, which Ukrainian intelligence anticipates will begin as early as late May.
- OFFENSIVES: Given limited vehicle and equipment production rates, these strategic reserve units are unlikely to represent a major offensive force capable of large-scale manoeuvre operations in their own right. Instead, they are likely to offset losses at the front and enable Russian frontline units to maintain momentum for as long as possible, even as and when they suffer high casualties during dismounted infantry assaults. In the meantime, and as per Pavlyuk’s assessment, Russian forces are likely to commit significant proportions of their available resources to keep the pressure on Ukrainian forces ahead of the summer offensive. This is highly likely aimed at exploiting current Russian advantages in terms of personnel, artillery fire and air defences for as long as possible. On 22 March, Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Ivan Havrylyuk stated that he expects European military assistance will compensate for the artillery disadvantage in ‘a month or two’. Havrylyuk confirmed that Russia currently enjoys a seven-to-one artillery fires advantage.
- BAKHMUT: The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed on 23 March that its forces have seized the village of Ivanivske, located immediately west of Bakhmut. While this has not yet been confirmed, Russian forces are making slow progress west of Bakhmut, and are now likely operating near the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar, a small town located around five miles (8km) to the west that is Russia’s next major objective along the Bakhmut axis. Progress towards this key objective remains slow; increased Ukrainian defences around Chasiv Yar will likely further delay Russian efforts to take the settlement, which sits in a tactical important position along the T-0514 highway that runs between Bakhmut and Kostiantynivka.
- DONETSK: Geolocated footage posted on 24 March shows that Russian forces recently advanced west of Tonenke, located around four miles (6km) west of Avdiivka. Additional footage from 24 March shows that Ukrainian forces are holding their positions in the western outskirts of Orlivka, situated around four miles (6km) west of Avdiivka; the footage therefore contradicts recent Russian claims of advances in the sector. Meanwhile, geolocated footage published on 23 and 24 March shows that Russian forces made limited gains south and north of Novomykhailivka, located around six miles (10km) south-west of Donetsk City.
- KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
- OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
- SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage from 23 March indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced west of Verbove, located six miles (10km) east of Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast). Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported on 24 March that Russian forces have increased the use of first-person view (FPV) drones by 40% along the southern front. Ukrainian sources have also reported increased Russian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities, which in turn are forcing Ukrainian drone operators to change the frequency on which they operate on a regular basis to prevent their interdiction.
- STRIKES: Overnight on 21-22 March, Russian forces launched a massive long-range strike involving 88 missiles and 63 Shahed-136/131 drones. The attack focused on energy infrastructure and damaged Ukraine’s largest dam at the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant (DHPP).
- STRIKES: Early on 25 March, Ukrainian air defences shot down eight of nine Russian-launched Shahaed-136/131 drones over Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts. The authorities reported that the attack damaged energy infrastructure in Odesa, which led to power outages in parts of the city.
- STRIKES: Overnight on 22-23 March, Russia attacked Ukraine with four S-300 guided missiles and 34 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian forces intercepted 31 drones over Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
- STRIKES: Ukraine reportedly conducted a successful drone attack against an oil refinery in Russia’s Samara oblast overnight on 22-23 March. According to Russian sources, the attack hit the Kuibyshev refinery. The same sources claim that Ukraine unsuccessfully attempted to strike the nearby Novokuibyshevsky refinery. By focusing on oil infrastructure, Ukraine’s current striking strategy likely aims to undermine the Kremlin’s ability to finance its war with oil revenues and to disrupt oil supplies to the frontlines.
- STRIKES: Overnight on 23-24 March, Russian forces launched 29 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and 28 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian air defences intercepted 18 missiles and 25 drones over Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Sumy and Volyn oblasts. Ukrainian military officials reported that the drones primarily targeted port infrastructure along the Danube River in Odesa and energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk. Ukrainian officials also reported that Russia used unspecified cruise and ballistic missiles to strike Mykolaiv on the evening of 23 March. The local authorities reported that Russia struck critical infrastructure and a gas storage facility in Lviv oblast with two Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles early on 24 March. Reports indicate that the attack damaged infrastructure and residential buildings in Myrnohrad (Donetsk).
- STRIKES: The Polish authorities indicated that during the 23-24 March attack, a Russian missile briefly entered Poland’s airspace before flying back to western Ukraine. The Polish Operational Command of the Armed Forces explained that it did not order the interception of the projectile due to the risks facing local residents; it also claimed that it knew the missile would circle back to Ukraine. The incident clearly underscores the risk of airspace violation and collateral damage stemming from intense Russian strikes for countries bordering Ukraine. However, the incident is highly unlikely to trigger any major escalation, given that it was highly likely not a deliberate attack against Poland. For further analysis of precedents of Polish airspace violations.
- STRIKES: Meanwhile, on the evening of 23 March, Ukrainian forces launched a missile strike that successfully hit two Russian Ropucha-class landing ships (the Yamal and Azov) in Crimea. The attack also reportedly struck the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF)’s communications centre in Sevastopol (Crimea). On 25 March, Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) reported that the attack critically damaged the Yamal, though the extent of the strike remains unconfirmed. The attack highlights the evolving success of Kyiv’s maritime strategy, which we assess aims to degrade the BSF’s surface capabilities at a steady rate.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- MOBILISATION: On 22 March, Russian opposition media reported plans to recruit at least 300,000 people covertly in order to encircle the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv (Kharkiv oblast). However, we assess that such an operation would unlikely be successful in the near term; even if an additional 300,000 personnel are recruited, such an operation would require Russian forces to divert resources away from the Donbas – which remains the Kremlin’s principal objective in the war. An increase in offensive operations in Kharkiv nevertheless remains likely as part of the 2024 summer offensive, though the prospect of encircling Kharkiv city remains an extremely ambitious objective which Russian forces likely do not have the capacity to conduct in the next six months. Nevertheless, in order to achieve this alleged goal, the media outlet Verstka claimed that the authorities will focus on mobilising reservists and attempt to convince conscripts who are about to demobilise to fight.
- MOBILISATION: An unnamed employee at a recruitment centre in Moscow claimed that the recruitment of volunteers for the Russian military has decreased significantly since October 2023. According to the source, several hundred people previously visited the centre per day (sometimes as many as 600) to express interest in signing up. However, this figure has reportedly dropped to around 20-30 individuals per day. We assess that the authorities will likely prefer to intensify crypto-mobilisation efforts rather than formally order another mobilisation round in the coming weeks. However, the risks of a formal partial mobilisation are increasing in the wake of the Russian presidential election (see Sibylline Ukraine Update – 21 March 2024).
- TERRORISM: The Kremlin reportedly instructed pro-government and state media outlets to emphasise possible traces of ‘Ukrainian involvement’ in their reporting of a terror attack against a concert venue in Moscow oblast. The Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported on this development on 23 March, citing an anonymous employee of an unspecified state media agency. Notably, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed on 23 March that the four main suspects in the attack had planned to flee to Ukraine, where they allegedly maintained contacts.
- TERRORISM: Kyiv has categorically refuted any such involvement, and we concur that Ukrainian involvement remains highly likely. Islamic State (IS) has since claimed responsibility for the attack (see Sibylline Alert – 22 March 2024), and this is highly likely the case. Nevertheless, Russia will likely amplify accusations of Ukrainian involvement to deflect from its apparent failure to thwart the attack and address domestic security issues related to Islamist militant threats.
FORECAST
ENERGY: On 21-22 March, Russian forces launched their largest single wave of strikes against energy facilities across Ukraine. Ukrainian officials claimed that Russian forces targeted 136 energy facilities in ten Ukrainian regions. The scale of the attacks underscores possible Russian efforts to elevate societal discontent against the Ukrainian government by undermining energy security, though the principal strategic objective in targeting energy infrastructure is most likely aimed at undermining Ukraine’s military-industrial capacity as Russia doubles down on its attritional war.
Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, reportedly lost 50% of its generating capacity following the mass Russian attacks on 22 March. On 24 March, Serhiy Kovalenko, the CEO of one of DTEK’s subsidiaries, assessed that it will take ‘months’ for the network to recover. Kovalenko also claimed that Ukraine will possibly experience electricity shortages this summer as the country will not be able to produce enough following the attacks, despite emergency electricity imports from Ukraine’s neighbours in the immediate aftermath of the strikes. Ultimately, this underscores that Russian efforts to weaken Ukraine’s critical infrastructure will likely sustain energy insecurity in the coming months.
Meanwhile, Kharkiv’s mayor, Ihor Terekhov, disclosed on 24 March that Russian strikes destroyed a thermal power plant and all electrical substations in the entire oblast. Terekhov also stated that as a result, energy workers are unable to ensure a stable power supply across Kharkiv. However, Terekhov stated that almost all buildings are supplied with water. Terekhov subsequently announced earlier on 25 March that almost 80% of Kharkiv now has electricity, though scheduled power outages will likely persist in the near term.
The CEO of Ukraine’s state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz, Oleksiy Chernyshov, stated on 24 March that a Russian strike against western Ukraine earlier that day did not affect gas supplies for consumers. Chernyshov emphasised that the infrastructure of an underground gas storage facility was targeted, resulting in equipment being damaged. However, he assessed that the strike has not significantly undermined operations given that the gas is stored deep underground (though surface infrastructure will nevertheless need to be repaired). Chernyshov also stressed that there are sufficient back-up options to mitigate the immediate impacts of the strike.
*Germany: New malware campaign highlights elevated espionage risks from Russian threat actors. On 23 March, international news outlets reported that the Russian state-sponsored group ‘APT29’ targeted German political parties in a malware campaign in late February. The campaign started with a phishing email mimicking an official dinner invitation, tricking potential victims into clicking on a malicious link. This then triggered the download of the ‘WINELOADER’ backdoor, allowing the actors to gain access to confidential data and to execute additional malicious code remotely. The malware also contained several obfuscation techniques, further enabling APT29 to remain undetected and achieve prolonged persistence. Russian state-sponsored actors have previously targeted Western systems in cyber campaigns aimed at manipulating political developments and election outcomes. However, this particular campaign points to an expansion of Russia’s targets to include political parties. We assess that upcoming elections for the European Parliament, the UK and the US will likely have tangible consequences for currently strained geopolitical tensions. As such, APT29’s campaign highlights the elevated espionage and security risks stemming from Russian state-sponsored actors in the short-to-medium term. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Apr 24. Drones attack Russian industrial sites. Several people were injured in a drone attack on industrial sites in Russia’s Tatarstan, local authorities said on Tuesday.
“This morning, the republic’s industrial enterprises in Yelabuga and Nizhnekamsk were attacked by drones. There is no serious damage, the technological process of the enterprises was not disrupted,” Tatarstan’s head Rustam Minnikhanov said in a post on his Telegram channel.
Two drones attacked a dormitory on the territory of the local Special Economic Zone, it said on Telegram, adding that two people were injured.
The Tass news agency said, citing emergency services, that six people had been injured.
(Source: Daily Telegraph)
01 Apr 24. Top Russian official says US dictates NATO spending. A top official in Russia’s Security Council said the United States was imposing economic obligations on its NATO partners and setting conditions for buying specific weapons and equipment.
Nikolai Patrushev told the Argumenty I Fakty news outlet the Kremlin’s aims in more than two years of conflict in Ukraine remained the same as NATO continued to press close to Russia’s borders.
Patrushev said the United States and Britain were exploiting Russophobia “to firmly bind other NATO states to them through economic obligations”.
“The United States is profiting by increasing the capacity of the military-industrial complex and dictating to its allies the conditions for purchasing very specific types of weapons and uniforms from their manufacturers,” Patrushev told Argumenty I Fakty in an interview published on Tuesday.
Defence spending by NATO had risen for the ninth year running and accounted for half of world-wide expenditure, he said.
Patrushev cited as an example Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who had agreed to boost defence spending and, as a result, was imposing tax increases.
“She was obliged to go along with this act of political suicide as alliance members must submit to ‘bloc’ discipline by boosting military spending,” Patrushev said.
Kallas, a NATO member which was annexed by the Soviet Union in 1940 and secured independence in 1991, last month urged other members of the Alliance to sharply boost defence spending as part of a “collective effort” to counter Russian actions.
The Baltic States, Poland and other east European countries have been the most vocal proponents of punitive actions against Russia.
NATO countries, including the Untied States, say Russia’s invasion of Ukraine amounts to a simple land grab and overturns the inviolability of post-Soviet borders.
European nations, Patrushev said, had “long lost many elements of their sovereignty and essentially amount to merely an economic and political support for the alliance”.
The notions of independence and responsibility before their citizens had been “subordinated to pleasing Washington’s aims”.
NATO, Patrushev said, was “systematically boosting its military potential along our borders from the Barents Sea to the Black Sea” and holding manoeuvres close to Russian territory.
“The plans of the United States and NATO are to keep Ukraine, or at least part of it, as a fully anti-Russia territory completely acting in the interests of the North Atlantic bloc,” he was quoted as saying.
“In this sense, the tasks of the demilitarisation of Ukraine remain the same.” (Source: Reuters)
02 Apr 24. Belarus holds military drills near borders with EU, Ukraine. Belarus started military exercises on Tuesday in regions bordering Ukraine and European Union members Lithuania and Poland, the Belarusian defence ministry said.
The three-day drills in the Gomel and Grodno regions aim to train officers and territorial defence troops how to defend their respective regions and how to act in case martial law is enacted, the ministry said on the Telegram messaging app.
Belarus, Russia’s closest ally, has seen its relations with western neighbours and Ukraine deteriorate over the last few years, especially after Moscow used the Belarusian territory as a staging ground for its assault on Kyiv that it launched in February 2022.
(Source: Reuters)
30 Mar 24. Putin signs decree on spring military conscription. Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree setting out the routine spring conscription campaign, calling up 150,000 citizens for statutory military service, a document posted on the Kremlin’s website showed on Sunday. All men in Russia are required to do a year-long military service, or equivalent training during higher education, from the age of 18.
In July Russia’s lower house of parliament voted to raise the maximum age at which men can be conscripted to 30 from 27. The new legislation came into effect on Jan. 1, 2024.
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Compulsory military service has long been a sensitive issue in Russia, where many men go to great lengths to avoid being handed conscription papers during the twice-yearly call-up periods.
Conscripts cannot legally be deployed to fight outside Russia and were exempted from a limited mobilisation in 2022 that gathered at least 300,000 men with previous military training to fight in Ukraine – although some conscripts were sent to the front in error. In September Putin signed an order calling up 130,000 people for the autumn campaign and last spring Russia planned to conscript 147,000.
(Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)
28 Mar 24. First Aerial Bombing Hits Ukraine’s Kharkiv Since 2022. On Wednesday, the city of Kharkiv, located in northeastern Ukraine, was targeted by aerial bombs for the first time since 2022, reported by local officials. The attack led to the death of at least one civilian and injured 16 others, while causing damage to residential buildings and a medical institute. The increased frequency of Russian attacks on Ukraine, including missile strikes on Kyiv and assaults on energy infrastructure, appears to be a retaliatory measure for Ukrainian aerial operations in the Belgorod region of Russia.
Kharkiv, situated near the frontline of the ongoing conflict between Ukrainian and Russian forces, has been a frequent target of missile and drone strikes since the full-scale invasion by Moscow in February 2022. The use of aerial bombs in this latest attack was confirmed by Sergey Bolvinov, head of Kharkiv’s investigative police department, and regional governor Oleh Syniehubov. These developments occur amidst reports of Ukrainian forces facing challenges due to personnel and ammunition shortages, along with intensified Russian military pressure.
In response to the evolving security situation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made changes to his security officials. Oleksii Danilov was removed as the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, with Oleksandr Lytvynenko, the former head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, taking his place. This reshuffle follows the dismissal of Ukraine’s chief military officer, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, earlier in the year. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
28 Mar 24. Polish and Czech Authorities Uncover Russian Espionage and Propaganda Networks. Polish authorities announced on Thursday that they had launched operations in Warsaw and the southern city of Tychy targeting a Russian espionage network. The raids were initiated based on intelligence from the Czech Republic, revealing efforts to organize pro-Russian initiatives and media campaigns within the EU. Poland’s Internal Security Agency (ABW) emphasized the operation’s importance in counteracting attempts to implement the Kremlin’s foreign policy goals, which include undermining Poland’s global stance, discrediting Ukraine, and tarnishing the image of EU institutions.
Jack Dobzynski, an ABW spokesperson, detailed the network’s objectives, stating it aimed to advance Moscow’s foreign policy by creating Russian spheres of influence in Europe. The investigations, which started in January, led to charges against a Polish citizen involved in espionage for Russia, engaging in propaganda, disinformation, and political provocation.
In a parallel development, the Czech Republic announced the dismantling of a Moscow-funded propaganda network. The network used the Prague-based news website Voice of Europe to oppose EU support for Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia. Czech intelligence services identified the network’s significant impact on EU security, revealing operations against Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. The Czech government has sanctioned individuals and entities involved, including two pro-Kremlin Ukrainian politicians and the Voice of Europe, for their roles in the influence operation.
The German Interior Ministry has recognized the case as part of Russia’s broad influence activities, pledging to continue investigating and counteracting such operations in cooperation with international partners. The revelations highlight the extensive efforts by Russia to manipulate political processes within the EU, emphasizing the need for vigilance and cooperation among member states to safeguard democratic institutions and electoral integrity. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
28 Mar 24. Kyiv asks NATO allies for air defences after Russia hits infrastructure. Ukraine’s defence minister asked allies for more air defences at an extraordinary meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council on Thursday and said nearly all the impact from Russian strikes this year had been on civilian infrastructure.
Last Friday, Russia carried out its largest air strike on Ukraine’s energy system since its invasion in February 2022, damaging power units at a dam and causing blackouts for more than a million people.
Moscow has described its recent attacks as part of a series of “revenge” strikes in response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian regions. Russia has increased its use of ballistic missiles.
Defence Minister Rustem Umerov said the support of allies on air defences was crucial and that it could save thousands of lives.
“The total explosive power of combined air attacks on Ukraine since the beginning of the year exceeds 9 kilotons,” he wrote on X after addressing participants via video link.
“Only 3% of those Russian missiles, drones and guided bombs hit military targets, while 97% struck civilian infrastructure,” he wrote.
Reuters was unable to verify that figure.
Russia denies targeting civilians, although the war that began with its invasion of Ukraine has killed thousands of people, uprooted millions and destroyed towns and cities.
Russia has stepped up its airstrikes on Ukraine this month.
00:12Moscow shooting survivor recounts harrowing moments
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Last week alone, it has used almost 190 missiles, 140 attack drones and 700 guided bombs, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said earlier. (Source: Reuters)
29 Mar 24. Kyiv’s top general says Ukraine needs fewer troops than expected. KYIV, March 29 (Reuters) – Ukraine’s military will need to mobilise fewer people than initially expected to fend off Russia’s two-year-old invasion, Kyiv’s top general said on Friday.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in December that his military had proposed mobilising up to 500,000 more Ukrainians into the armed forces as Russia stepped up attacks along the 1,000-km (621-mile) front line.
Commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, who was appointed last month, said in an interview with Ukrainian media published on Friday that the figure had been “significantly reduced” after a review of resources.
He did not name a new figure.
“We expect that we will have enough people capable of defending their motherland,” told the Ukrinform news agency. “I am talking not only about the mobilized but also about volunteer fighters.”
Ukraine’s mobilisation effort has been hobbled by waning enthusiasm and reports of corruption and abuse at draft offices. A bill that would allow officials to call up more troops is currently winding its way through parliament.
Syrskyi added that an audit of non-combat units had allowed military planners to send “thousands” of service members to the front, and that combat-support roles were “equally important” in Kyiv’s defence effort.
“The war that we are forced to wage against the Russian invaders is a war of attrition, a war of logistics,” he said. “Therefore, the importance of the effectiveness of rear units cannot be underestimated.”
00:12Moscow shooting survivor recounts harrowing moments
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The former ground forces chief also said “powerful” defensive lines were being prepared “in almost all threatening areas” as Russia keeps up its attacks.
The eastern city of Avdiivka fell to Moscow in mid-February after a months-long assault in which Ukrainian defenders had been outgunned and outnumbered.
In the Ukrinform interview, Syrskyi said his forces would have “definitely” kept their positions if Kyiv had received more ammunition and air defence capabilites from its Western partners.
(Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)
28 Mar 24. Putin says Russia will not attack NATO, but F-16s will be shot down in Ukraine.
- Summary
- Russia will not attack NATO, Putin says
- Putin says Russia will not attack Poland, Baltic states
- Putin says Western F-16s will be shot down in Ukraine
Russia has no designs on any NATO country and will not attack Poland, the Baltic states or the Czech Republic but if the West supplies F-16 fighters to Ukraine then they will be shot down by Russian forces, President Vladimir Putin said late on Wednesday.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has triggered the deepest crisis in Russia’s relations with the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
Speaking to Russian air force pilots, Putin said the U.S.-led military alliance had expanded eastwards towards Russia since the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union but that Moscow had no plans to attack a NATO state.
“We have no aggressive intentions towards these states,” Putin said, according to a Kremlin transcript released on Thursday.
“The idea that we will attack some other country – Poland, the Baltic States, and the Czechs are also being scared – is complete nonsense. It’s just drivel.”
The Kremlin, which accuses the U.S. of fighting against Russia by supporting Ukraine with money, weapons and intelligence, says relations with Washington have probably never been worse.
Asked about F-16 fighters which the West has promised to send to Ukraine, Putin said such aircraft would not change the situation in Ukraine.
“If they supply F-16s, and they are talking about this and are apparently training pilots, this will not change the situation on the battlefield,” Putin said.
“And we will destroy the aircraft just as we destroy today tanks, armoured vehicles and other equipment, including multiple rocket launchers.”
Putin said that F-16 could also carry nuclear weapons.
“Of course, if they will be used from airfields in third countries, they become for us legitimate targets, wherever they might be located,” Putin said.
Putin’s remarks followed comments earlier in the day by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba that the aircraft should arrive in Ukraine in the coming months.
Ukraine, now more than two years into a full-fledged war against Russia, has sought F-16s for many months.
Belgium, Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands are among countries which have pledged to donate F-16s. A coalition of countries has promised to help train Ukrainian pilots in their use. (Source: Reuters)
27 Mar 24. Air defences down 16 airborne targets in Russia’s Belgorod, local governor says.
Russian air defence units on Wednesday downed 16 airborne targets around the city of Belgorod in southern Russia, with no injuries reported on the ground, regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said.
Gladkov, writing on the Telegram messaging app, said the attacks broke windows and caused other damage to several sites in the town, including two schools and four educational institutions.
There was also damage to property in areas outside the town.
Pictures posted on social media showed a car bursting into flames and a fire in a courtyard.
Ukraine has in recent weeks regularly launched air attacks on Belgorod, and two nearby Russian regions, Bryansk and Voronezh. There have also been land incursions in Belgorod.(Source: Reuters)
28 Mar 24. Russia uses ‘new type of bomb’ in Kharkiv attacks. Moscow may have used a new type of bomb in strikes on Kharkiv that killed at least one. Four children, including a three-month-old baby were among 19 people wounded in the city after Russia launched strikes on a residential area with a new type of guided bomb called a UMPB D-30, local officials reported.
“This is something between a guided aerial bomb which they [the Russians] have used recently, and a missile. It’s a flying bomb so to say,” regional police chief Volodymyr Tymoshko said of the strikes.
Oleh Synehubov, the regional governor, added: “It seems that the Russians decided to test their modified bombs on the residents of the houses.”
Ukrainian observers have described the weapon as a simple cruise missile based on the FAB-250 aerial bomb, with added glide wings, a turbo jet, and a navigation system. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
28 Mar 24. UK firm supports Ukrainian armed forces in drone tech race.
- Summary
- Drones play a big role in the war in Ukraine
- Both sides deploy electronic warfare (EW) systems
- Ukraine’s allies are trying to support its drone programme
- Some work on technology to counter Russian EW capabilities
In an anonymous warehouse in southern England, engineers at Evolve Dynamics are working on technology that could help keep Ukraine’s reconnaissance drones in the sky even after Russia tries to jam them electronically.
It is a small but important part of an international effort by Ukraine’s allies to support its drone programme, which Kyiv hopes will give it the edge over a much larger enemy with many more resources at its disposal.
Companies in dozens of countries have supplied drones and drone parts to Ukraine. Some, like Evolve Dynamics, are also focusing on technological advances designed to counter Russia’s powerful electronic warfare (EW) capabilities.
By developing alternative radio link algorithms, it aims to make it harder for Russia to jam the signal from its surveillance drones, rendering them useless.
Both sides have bolstered deployment of EW systems, which can disrupt the frequencies that feed commands from the pilot to the drone, making them drop out of the sky or miss their target.
“It’s a constant ping-pong game between adversaries,” said Mike Dewhirst, chief executive of Evolve Dynamics, who estimates there have been 85 upgrades made to the company’s Sky Mantis drones over the last two-and-a-half years.
Britain, a staunch ally of Kyiv since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, said it was the largest supplier of drones to Ukraine, and is working with Latvia to lead a European coalition to step up production.
Other allies, such as Sweden, the Netherlands and Norway, have also provided Ukraine with combat drones.
Ukraine has nurtured its own private military startups to innovate and build up their domestic industry as the war enters its third year.
In total, there are now about 200 dronemakers in Ukraine and the Strategic Industries Ministry has said the country could make as many as 2m drones this year. (Source: Reuters)
26 Mar 24. Ukraine ramps up spending on homemade weapons to help repel Russia. Ukraine needs any edge it can get to repel Russia from its territory. One emerging bright spot is its small but fast-growing defense industry, which the government is flooding with money in hopes that a surge of homemade weapons and ammunition can help turn the tide.
The effort ramped up sharply over the past year as the U.S. and Europe strained to deliver weapons and other aid to Ukraine, which is up against a much bigger Russian military backed by a thriving domestic defense industry.
The Ukrainian government budgeted nearly $1.4bn in 2024 to buy and develop weapons at home — 20 times more than before Russia’s full-scale invasion.
And in another major shift, a huge portion of weapons are now being bought from privately owned factories. They are sprouting up across the country and rapidly taking over an industry that had been dominated by state-owned companies.
A privately owned mortar factory that launched in western Ukraine last year is making roughly 20,000 shells a month.
“I feel that we are bringing our country closer to victory,” said Anatolli Kuzmin, the factory’s 64-year-old owner, who used to make farm equipment and fled his home in southern Ukraine after Russia invaded in 2022.
Yet like many aspects of Ukraine’s war apparatus, its defense sector has been constrained by a lack of money and manpower – and, according to executives and generals, too much government red tape. A more robust private sector could help root out inefficiencies and enable factories to churn out weapons and ammunition even faster.
The stakes couldn’t be higher.
Russia controls nearly a quarter of Ukraine and has gained momentum along the 1,000 kilometer (620 mile) front line by showing a willingness to expend large numbers of troops to make even the smallest of advances. Ukrainian troops regularly find themselves outmanned and outgunned, and this has contributed to falling morale.
“You need a mortar not in three years, you need it now, preferably yesterday,” said Taras Chmut, director of the Come Back Alive Foundation, an organization that has raised more than $260 m over the past decade to equip Ukrainian troops with machine guns, armored vehicles and more.
Wartime entrepreneurs
Kuzmin, the owner of the mortar factory, fled the southern city of Melitopol in 2022 after Russia invaded and seized his factory that mostly made spare parts for farm equipment. He had begun developing a prototype for mortar shells shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, when it illegally annexed the Crimean Peninsula.
Kuzmin took over a sprawling warehouse in western Ukraine last winter. His long-term goals include boosting production to 100,000 shells per month and developing engines and explosives for drones.
He is just one of many entrepreneurs transforming Ukraine’s weapons industry, which was dominated by state-owned enterprises after the break-up of the Soviet Union. Today, about 80 percent of the defense industry is in private hands — a mirror image of where things stood a year ago and a stark contrast with Russia’s state-controlled defense industry.
Each newly made projectile is wrapped in craft paper and carefully packed into wooden crates to be shipped to Romania or Bulgaria, where are loaded with explosives. Several weeks later, they’re shipped back and sent to the front.
“Our dream is to establish a plant for explosives,” said Kuzmin, who is seeking a partner to make that happen.
Obstacles to growth
Ukraine’s surge in military spending has occurred against a backdrop of $60bn in U.S. aid being held up by Congress and with European countries struggling to deliver enough ammunition.
As impressive as Ukraine’s defense sector transformation has been, the country stands no chance of defeating Russia without massive support from the West, said Trevor Taylor, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank.
“Ukraine is not capable of producing all the munitions that it needs for this fight,” Taylor said. “The hold up of $60 bn of American help is really proving to be a significant hindrance.”
Russia is also pumping more money into its defense industry, whose growth has helped buffer its economy from the full brunt of Western sanctions. The country’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, recently boasted of huge increases in the manufacture of tanks, drones and ammunition.
“The entire country has risen and is working for our victory,” he said.
Compared with last year, Ukraine’s output of mortar shells is about 40 times higher and its production of ammunition for artillery has nearly tripled, said Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s minister of strategic industries. There has also been a boom in drone startups, with the government committing roughly $1 bn on the technology — on top of its defense budget.
“We now produce in a month what we used to produce in a year,” said Vladislav Belbas, the director general of Ukrainian Armor, which makes a wide array of military vehicles.
For the Ukrainian army’s 28th brigade, which is fighting near Bakhmut, delays in foreign weapon supplies haven’t yet posed any problems for troops “because we are able to cover our need from our own domestic production,” said Major Artem Kholodkevych.
Still, domestic weapons factories face a range of challenges — from keeping up with changing needs of battlefield commanders, to their own vulnerability to long-range Russian missile strikes.
But perhaps the greatest immediate hindrance is a lack of manpower.
Yaroslav Dzera, who manages one of Ukrainian Armor’s factories, said he struggles to recruit and keep qualified workers, not least because many of them have been mobilized to fight.
Blocked by bureaucracy
Weapons companies say another roadblock to growth is bureaucracy.
The government has tried to become more efficient since the war began, including by making its process for awarding contracts more transparent. But officials say the country has a long way to go.
Shortly before he was replaced by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s former top general, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, highlighted the problem in an essay he wrote for CNN, saying Ukraine’s defense sector remained “hamstrung” by too many regulations and a lack of competition.
In spite of the challenges, one success story has been Ukraine’s drone industry. Ukrainian-made sea drones have proven to be an effective weapon against the Russian fleet in the Black Sea.
There are around 200 companies in Ukraine now focused on drones and output has soared — with 50 times more deliveries in December compared with a year earlier, according to Mykhailo Fedorov, the country’s minister of digital transformation.
Russia’s war in Ukraine is not a standoff over whose got better drones or missiles, said Serhii Pashynskyi, head of the National Association of Ukrainian Defense Industries trade group.
“We have a war of only two resources with Russia — manpower and money,” he said. “And if we learn to use these two basic resources, we will win. If not, we will have big problems.” (Source: Defense News Early Bird/C4ISR & Networks)
26 Mar 24. France might requisition arms producers to speed up production to help Ukraine. French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu said on Tuesday he was prepared to use his powers to requisition industrial capacities or impose priorities to weapon makers to speed up production of arms and shells needed on the battlefield in Ukraine and elsewhere.
“These questions … are clearly on the table”, Lecornu told a news conference, adding stocks and production lines were particularly strained with regard to anti-air missiles and artillery shells.
Lecornu said he could requisition stocks or tell companies to give priority to certain orders, citing Aster missiles produced by MBDA as a potential case for such a move.
Foreign demand for French-produced arms was high, especially for anti-defence, artillery and radar systems exposed in Ukraine, Lecornu said, but the country’s defence industry is struggling to keep up.
“We have missed out on certain contracts with Eastern Europe countries for whom the criterion of delivery deadlines is more important than the price,” Lecornu said.
(Source: Reuters)
26 Mar 24. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reshuffled his top intelligence and national security chiefs, the second personnel shake-up this year aimed at reinvigorating Ukraine’s war effort and turning the momentum in its favour. The Ukrainian president dismissed Oleksiy Danilov, head of the national security and defence council, and replaced him with foreign intelligence chief Oleksandr Lytvynenko, according to decrees published on the presidential website on Tuesday. Oleh Ivashchenko will replace Lytvynenko as chief of foreign intelligence, according to the site. Ivashchenko previously served as deputy head of the military intelligence directorate (GUR), whose aerial and sea drone attacks on high-value targets have rankled the Kremlin. The 51-year-old Lytvynenko had served as foreign intelligence chief since July 2021. A veteran national security and intelligence official, the multi-lingual Lytvynenko is widely respected among his western and Ukrainian counterparts. The shake-up now has him returning to the NSDC, where he previously served as the agency’s chief. Zelenskyy’s personnel change comes a little more than a month after he dismissed the commander-in-chief of the armed forces Valeriy Zaluzhny, with whom he had disagreements. Zaluzhny has since been tapped by the president to serve as Ukraine’s ambassador in London. The Ukrainian president has asserted that the changes in his defence, intelligence and security apparatus are needed to reboot Ukraine’s war effort after its unsuccessful counteroffensive last year and as it faces significant challenges, including exhausted troops, a shortage of manpower and dwindling ammunition. Danilov, 61, had served in the post since October 2019 and the president gave no reason for his sacking. But officials close to Zelenskyy told the Financial Times in February that the president was considering his dismissal as part of a broader reshuffle. Recommended Global InsightGuy Chazan Germany’s taboo over Ukraine has been broken In a post on Facebook, Danilov thanked Zelenskyy “for his trust” and “for giving me the opportunity to serve my country and my people in times of peace and war”. Danilov had a penchant for colourful statements that analysts had noted sometimes blurred fact and fiction. Russian forces have regained the strategic initiative on the battlefield and are pressing ahead with attacks at five key points along the 1,000km frontline a month after their capture of the coking city of Avdiivka. Zelenskyy has ordered the construction of new, heavily fortified defensive lines stretching 2,000km in order to keep back the Russians. (Source: FT.com)
18 Mar 24. EvoLogics preparing further deliveries of Sonobot USVs to Ukrainian armed forces. German company EvoLogics is planning to deliver a further batch of Sonobot unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) to the Ukrainian armed forces. EvoLogics CEO Fabian Bannasch told Janes at Oceanology International 2024, held in London on 12–14 March, that his company is “currently preparing a fourth configuration of Sonobot with enhanced underwater data networking and positioning capabilities in order to guide and support complex underwater missions with dive teams, and AUVs [autonomous underwater vehicles] where the Sonobot will be the gateway buoy at the surface” for the Ukrainian armed forces. Sonobots are a family of small USVs of about 1.3 m in length that can be folded and transported by a single person. (Source: Janes)
25 Mar 24. Over 50% of Donors for Ukraine’s Drone Fundraiser During Presidential Election Were Russian.
The Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR) said Russians were among the major backers during a recent fundraiser to purchase reconnaissance drones for the agency.
The donations largely came in during Russia’s presidential election on March 15-17 – in what was likely a way to voice discontent with the regime.
The fundraiser, which was promoted on the FREEDOM television channel, aimed to collect Hr.25m ($641,100) to purchase an unspecified number of “Sych” drones for the HUR, a long-range reconnaissance drone with a 200 km range equipped with a high-definition camera.
According to a Telegram announcement by HUR, close to 3,000 people participated in the TV fundraising campaign by scanning the QR code – where 1,538 are Russians, including 200 from Moscow.
“It is symbolic that the peak of donations for drones for Ukrainian intelligence from citizens of the aggressor state coincided with the so-called ‘Putin elections.’ Instead of participating in the Kremlin farce, conscious Russians decided to vote with dollars and euros for the freedom of their country,” the announcement reads.
The HUR stated that Ukrainians living abroad, as well as citizens of Latvia, Germany, Poland, Moldova and other countries also donated.
Incumbent Russian President Vladimir Putin “won” the election by a landslide victory, though many have questioned the legitimacy of the election.
If the HUR report is true, Russian participation in the Ukrainian fundraiser would be an ironic celebration of Putin’s victory. The numerous sabotage activities during the elections and the pro-Ukrainian insurgencies in Kursk and Belgorod regions also demonstrated a level of discontent with the Kremlin unseen before, making Putin’s alleged 88 percent exit poll all the more questionable. (Source: UAS VISION/Kyiv Post)
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