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Military And Security Developments
Mar 23.
On 22 March, unidentified gunmen killed at least 40 people and injured another 100 in a small arms and explosives attack at a concert venue, the Crocus City Music Hall, in Krasnogorsk (Moscow oblast), resulting in a large fire. There is a realistic possibility the casualty toll will rise in the coming hours as the rescue mission progresses, though reports indicate the fire is now under control. Emergency services have reportedly evacuated 100 people from the building’s basement. The incident marks the worst terror attack in Russia in two decades.
SIGNIFICANCE
- Eye witness reports indicate that at least five individuals, demonstrating a high degree of training, conducted the attack. The exact identity of the assailants remains unclear; no immediate claims of responsibility have been made yet. State Duma deputy Alexander Khinshtein reported that special forces are still searching for the perpetrators who have allegedly escaped by car.
- The US government has stated that it does not see any indications that Ukraine or Ukrainians were involved in the attack. The Ukrainian government has also denied any involvement.
- In the weeks before the attack the US Embassy in Moscow and the UK Foreign Office issued official warnings that unknown extremists were planning imminent attacks against public gatherings in the Russian capital (see Sibylline Alert – 8 March 2024). The warning came shortly after Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) neutralised an unspecified number of Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISK) militants who had been planning a terrorist attack on an unnamed Moscow synagogue.
- Although unconfirmed, media reports claim that a car rigged with explosives has been found in the Crocus City Hall parking lot, underscoring heightened risks to bystanders. According to law enforcement, there are concerns that the perpetrators have mined the premises with explosives and there is a realistic possibility there will be another explosion. It is strongly advised to avoid the area around the Crocus City Hall and the immediate vicinity.
- Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin has confirmed that all sports, cultural and other mass events in the capital have been cancelled this weekend due to the attack. Mass events in the city of Podolsk (Moscow oblast) have also been cancelled; other urban centres in the wider Moscow oblast will likely follow suit in the coming hours.
Forecast
Despite an already elevated security posture in Moscow due to the war in Ukraine, security services are highly likely to further augment their presence in the coming hours. Local media have alleged that authorities in Moscow have activated the ‘Siren’ plan and are rounding up personnel to reinforce the capital. The plan, which involves widespread search operations, was enforced in December 2019 following a shooting in central Moscow near the FSB building. There is a realistic to likely possibility that law enforcement personnel will increase stop and search operations across Moscow and the wider Moscow region in the coming hours, raising interrogation and detention risks.
The situation on the ground currently remains extremely volatile and dynamic, though it is highly likely that other Russian regions will adopt a heightened security posture in the near term. In St. Petersburg, people are reportedly being evacuated from shopping centres; similar large public venues are highly likely to undergo mass evacuations and restrictions in the coming hours. Reports indicate that Leningrad oblast has cancelled all entertainment events until further notice; Stavropol, Murmansk, Moscow, St. Petersburg, Vologda, and Kursk, as well as in North Ossetia have similarly cancelled all public events planned for the weekend. Further such measures are highly likely across the country as the government implements protocols to mitigate the threat of further attacks, particularly as long as the perpetrators remain outside police custody.
Moderate travel disruption, as well as heightened security on public transport and at ports of entry, is likely in the immediate term. Passenger searches on the Moscow metro have been intensified, while security measures have been strengthened at airports servicing the Russian capital. Passengers have been asked to arrive at airports early, which likely indicates anticipated delays to account for increased inspections. Russian Railways (RZD) has also increased security measures on trains and stations, as well as places where people gather en masse. Traffic is likely to be heavier than usual around the Crocus City Music Hall and on the nearby Moscow Ring Road (MKAD).
Mar 22.
*New wiper points to elevated destruction, disruption threats posed by Russian cyber actors. On 21 March, the cyber security company SentinelOne reported the discovery of a new strain of wiper malware, ‘AcidPour’. The malware is reportedly a more sophisticated version of the existing ‘AcidRain’ wiper previously used by the Russian threat group ‘Sandworm’. The group deployed AcidRain to wipe data from thousands of Ukrainian modems prior to Russia’s invasion in 2022. AcidPour is also capable of targeting Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices and industrial environments, effectively expanding its destructive capabilities. It is possible that AcidPour is responsible for the disruption of multiple Ukrainian telecommunications networks since 13 March. The new variant highlights the sophistication of Sandworm’s tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs), which continue to bolster Russia’s military action against Ukraine. Cyber attacks against critical infrastructure and services in Western countries are liable to cause significant damage to national security. Consequently, this infrastructure is increasingly becoming a primary target for state-sponsored groups, elevating disruption risks in the long term.
*Overnight on 21-22 March, Russian forces launched a massive long-range strike attack against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, using 88 missiles and 63 Shahed-136/131 drones. Ukrainian authorities reported that Ukraine’s largest dam at the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant (DHPP) was damaged by the attack. Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Haluschenko said today’s attack was one of the largest attacks against the country’s energy infrastructure in recent months. The attack consisted of 12 Iskandr-M ballistic missiles, 40 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, five Kh-22 cruise missiles, seven Kh-47 M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 22 S-300/S-400 missiles and two Kh-59 cruise missiles. Ukrainian air defences reportedly intercepted 55 drones, 35 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles and the two Kh-59 missiles.
The DHPP, located in Zaporizhzhia city, is the largest hydroelectric dam on the Dnieper River and is upstream from the Kakhovka Dam that was destroyed in 2023. The state-owned hydropower enterprise Ukrhydroenergo has confirmed that a missile scored a direct hit on the second station (HPP-2) at the plant, with the turbine and generator halls now in a ‘critical condition’. A second missile reportedly did not score a direct hit, but struck an unspecified ‘support’ structure, seemingly damaging the top of the dam – resulting in the closure of the road. The engine room and electrical equipment in HPP-2 are reportedly totally destroyed, and the dam itself is damaged, but the site is ‘under control’.
Ukrenergo officials have confirmed that the areas most affected by energy blackouts are Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad and Odesa oblasts. Limits to energy consumption are also reportedly in place in Donetsk, Poltava and Sumy oblasts. Kharkiv authorities reported 15 strikes against Kharkiv energy facilities, with other sites hit in Khmelnytskyi and Vinnytsia oblasts, where several cities reported power outages. Damage to unspecified critical infrastructure was also reported in Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk oblast) as well as in the western Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts.
Forecast
Ukrhydroenergo officials have stated that there is no threat of a dam breach at the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant (DHPP). As such, there is limited risk of catastrophic flooding downstream. This latest attack is fundamentally different to the incident that resulted in the destruction of the downstream Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) – the attack against the DHPP was external, while an internal explosion resulted in the breach at the KHPP. Hydroelectric dams are hardened sites specifically designed to withstand significant external bombardment, though a direct hit to the dam itself (rather than the power plant) could still have risked compromising the dam. For further analysis of the 2023 KHPP incident, see Sibylline Daily Ukraine Update – 6 June 2023.
Just hours after the attack, the Financial Times (FT) reported that the US has allegedly urged Ukraine to cease its drone attacks against Russian oil refineries, given their risk of driving up global oil prices and – crucially – provoking retaliation. It remains unlikely that Ukraine will cease its attacks against Russian energy infrastructure in thier entirety given their effectiveness at undermining the Russian economy and war effort. Nevertheless, it remains highly likely that today’s Russian strikes are in retaliation to the widespread Ukrainian attacks against Russia’s own energy infrastructure in recent weeks. Further such high-intensity attacks are likely in the coming weeks if Ukraine does not reduce the tempo of its own attacks on Russian oil refineries.
Growing air defence ammunition shortages are straining Ukraine’s air defence capabilities, and likely account for Ukraine’s moderate interception rate during the latest attack. Reports indicate that Ukraine could run out of certain types of ammunition by the end of March, whereafter Ukrainian forces will likely be forced to ration air defence missiles, which could reduce interception rates to only 20% by some official estimates. This will increase the lethality of future Russian strikes, particularly given the Russian tactic of stockpiling missiles to launch a single, large-scale attack designed to saturate and overwhelm air defences. At the same time, further delays in the provision of Western and particularly US military aid will drive uncertainty over Ukraine’s ability to sustain Russian long-range attacks in the coming months.
Mar 21.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
• OFFENSIVES: The Russian MoD announced that Russia is expanding its conventional military capabilities; this likely reflects not only Moscow’s bid to augment its forces in Ukraine, but also to prepare for a long-term confrontation with NATO
• SOUTHERN: Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command has described the situation near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast) as currently ‘in flux’, but not ‘critical’
• STRIKES: Russia launched a large-scale missile strike on 21 March, including two ballistic missiles and 29 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles; all were reportedly intercepted over Kyiv oblast
• FORECAST: Ukraine’s allies participated in the latest meeting of the Ukraine defence contact group (Ramstein format), committing additional military aid; an EU summit is set to discuss new measures of support, including Russian asset seizures
• OFFENSIVES: On 20 March, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia is expanding its conventional military capabilities. This likely reflects Moscow’s bid not only to augment its forces in Ukraine but also to prepare for a long-term confrontation with NATO. Shoigu stated that Russia has also formed an army corps (AC); this possibly refers either to the new AC being formed in Karelia (on the Finnish border) or the 40th AC which is fighting in Kherson oblast. Shoigu also stated that Russia plans to form two combined arms armies (CAAs), 14 divisions and 16 brigades by the end of 2024. It remains unclear whether these are entirely new formations, given that Russia created two CAAs in 2023 – the 18th and 25th. These new capabilities also likely reflect Russia’s longer-term goal of reconstituting its conventional ground forces to prepare for a possible confrontation with NATO.
• OFFENSIVES: The prospect of two additional Russian CAAs in 2024 has moderately increased the likelihood of a post-election partial mobilisation in Russia, though crypto-mobilisation efforts have proven sufficient to support the war effort until now. Putin’s re-election victory has allowed him to consolidate his position and set the conditions to fight a protracted attritional conflict in Ukraine. This newly strengthened position will possibly increase the Kremlin’s readiness to make the unpopular decision to initiate a second wave of partial mobilisation in 2024 if it deems this to be necessary. However, as underscored by the creation of the 18th and 25th CAAs in 2023, Moscow has the ability to generate personnel to man new units without resorting to mobilisation (albeit of poor and untrained quality).
• OFFENSIVES: Crypto-mobilisation will likely remain the Kremlin’s preferred option for generating personnel for as long as it deems is necessary. Such methods include recruiting convicts, ethnic minorities, foreign migrants (principally from Central Asia) and foreign mercenaries (including from Cuba, Nepal and Somalia). However, if Ukraine is able to overcome its own personnel problems in 2024, and if Russia’s summer offensive fails, the likelihood of the Kremlin resorting to a fresh round of mobilisation to preserve the operational initiative and ensure that the attritional balance remains in its favour would increase.
• BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
• BELGOROD: On 18 March, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that ‘four groups of traitors’ are conducting cross-border raids into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts, referring to the Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Siberian Battalion and Ichkerian (Chechen) volunteers. Putin previously stated that Ukrainian forces conducted the raids. As such, his latest comments acknowledge that Russian citizens are attacking Belgorod; he stated that these citizens need to be ‘eliminated’. On 20 March, various Russian sources indicated that the intensity of these cross-border operations has decreased; the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claims that its forces have cleared Kozinka, located around 44 miles (71km) west of Belgorod. However, we cannot confirm this at present.
• DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 20 March shows that Russian forces advanced north of the dam at Heorihiivka, a settlement located to the north-west of Marinka. Additional footage posted on 20 March shows that Russian forces progressed north of Novomykhailivka, located around six miles (10km) to the south-west of Donetsk city. Geolocated footage from 19 March confirms that Russian forces progressed north-west of the dam at Pervomaiske, a settlement located around six miles (10km) to the south-west of Avdiivka.
• KHERSON: On 20 March, Russian Defence Minister Shoigu confirmed the creation of the new Dnepr River Flotilla that comprises a brigade of boats. The specifics of the new unit have not been provided, though we assess that it is unlikely to have sufficient personnel and equipment to establish a permanent Russian presence on the west (right) bank of the river in Kherson oblast. However, it will possibly enable increased cross-river raids in the short-to-medium term.
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: On 20 March, Ukrainian military officials reported that their forces repelled a major Russian ground attack in the Lyman direction, west of Kreminna. However, Russian forces are making slow progress elsewhere along this axis. Geolocated footage from 20 March indicates that Russian forces have advanced in the direction of Terny, located west of Kreminna. Additional footage from 19 March shows that Russian forces advanced north of Zolotarivka, located around 11 miles (17km) south of Kreminna.
• SOUTHERN: On 20 March, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command, Natalia Humeniuk, stated that the situation near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast) is currently ‘in flux’, but that it is not ‘critical’. Russian forces have been conducting a relatively high tempo of attacks along this front in recent weeks, though progress has been slow amid reported shortages and limited electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian officials’ statement is likely intended to manage expectations in case Russian forces manage to retake the entirety of Robotyne (they currently control at least half of the settlement).
• STRIKES: Early on 21 March, Russia launched a large-scale missile strike against Ukraine that included two Iskandr-M/Kh47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles and 29 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles. Ukraine’s air defences intercepted all the projectiles over Kyiv oblast, where falling debris damaged residential buildings. On 20 March, Russia attacked Kharkiv with a Kh-35 anti-ship missile, killing five civilians and causing a fire at a factory. On the same day, Ukrainian air defences reportedly destroyed two reconnaissance drones approaching Odesa from the Black Sea direction.
• STRIKES: On 20 March, Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) reportedly orchestrated a drone attack against the Russian Engels 2 military airbase (Saratov oblast). Satellite imagery shows that 11 Russian aircraft were located at the base as of 19 March. The Russian military authorities claimed that all the drones were intercepted. There is no evidence that the GUR hit the base or damaged any aircraft. Nevertheless, the latest attack clearly underscores Kyiv’s continued efforts to degrade Russian military aviation capabilities, including aircraft used to carry out strikes against Ukrainian territory. The attack comes amid an intensification of Ukrainian drone attacks deep into Russian territory in recent days, underscoring Ukraine’s growing drone capabilities.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• MUNITIONS: The Washington Post reported on 20 March that Ukrainian defence companies are seeking to manufacture NATO-standard 155mm shells domestically from H2 2024. However, an unspecified official from the state-owned defence firm Ukroboronprom announced that production would not begin until the latter half of 2024; they indicated that domestic manufacturing would not alleviate artillery shortages in the near term. No further details were provided on quantity or production timeframes.
• MUNITIONS: Ukrainian officials stated that Kyiv will spend around USD 5 bn on domestic arms production this year. However, Ukraine’s ability to finance domestic weapons production is limited, as Western financial support is typically earmarked for non-military purposes. As such, Western military aid will highly likely remain crucial in sustaining the war effort.
• REPUTATION: Ukraine announced on 19 March that it is halting public access to its so-called ‘international sponsors of war’ list following requests made by partners. Kyiv created the register after the beginning of the full-scale invasion so as to encourage corporations to leave Russia and to highlight those it perceives to be contributing to Moscow’s capacity to sustain the war through the payment of taxes in Russia, as well as by supplying critical components or materials (among other actions).
• REPUTATION: The Ukrainian government did not explicitly specify which international partners had raised concerns. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian foreign ministry was reportedly informed that the list had negatively impacted ‘decisions’ to counter Russian aggression. International media reported in February that China had demanded that several Chinese firms be de-listed (see Sibylline Ukraine Daily Update – 2 February 2024). Although appearing on the list carries no legal weight, we assess that it has the potential to increase reputational risks for firms (to a moderate degree).
FORECAST
AID: On 19 March, Ukraine’s allies participated in the latest meeting of the Ukraine defence contact group (Ramstein format). Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov disclosed that ammunition was the main topic on the agenda, noting that unspecified partners announced aid packages that include artillery shells of various sizes. Umerov also implied that Ukraine will receive more missiles for its air defence systems, without providing specifics. Ukrainian officials last month reportedly warned their Western counterparts that Ukraine will begin running out of certain types of air defence ammunition by the end of March; this would likely severely undermine Ukraine’s interception rate of certain types of projectiles.
Notably, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius announced a new aid package for Ukraine worth EUR 500m (USD 545.5m). The fresh tranche of military support includes 10,000 artillery shells from the German armed forces’ own stocks, 100 armoured vehicles and 100 transport vehicles. Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated that he is determined to keep US assistance and ammunition flowing to Kyiv, though he did not specify whether the US would support Ukraine without the approval of additional funding.
Separately, EU leaders are gathering in Brussels (Belgium) for a summit on 21-22 March, where officials are due to discuss support for Ukraine, among other topics. On 19 March, the bloc’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, proposed that the EU should take 90% of the revenue from frozen Russian assets in Europe and use this to arm Ukraine. Reports indicate that EU leaders will discuss the initiative (which envisions the money being sent to an EU-run fund used to finance weapons for Ukraine) on 21 March.
While Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo welcomed the proposal, the initiative will likely spark contention among countries that are neutral or militarily non-aligned and/or sceptical of arming Ukraine further. We assess that there will likely be more consensus among EU member states if the funds are earmarked largely (or solely) for reconstruction efforts and/or humanitarian/financial aid. However, even in this case, individual states such as Hungary would possibly oppose using Russian frozen assets for Ukraine’s benefit due to various political and practical economic reasons. As we have previously assessed, if a decision is made on this matter in the coming weeks and months, the risk of tit-for-tat seizures of Western assets inside Russia would increase.
*Russia-China: Further financial restrictions are likely in coming months due to risk of sanctions. Russian-state media reported earlier on 21 March that several Chinese banks have stopped accepting payments from Russia in Chinese renminbi (RMB) due to the risk of Western sanctions. These banks reportedly include the Bank of Ningbo, the Great Wall West China Bank, the Ping An Bank and the Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank (among others). An unspecified insider from Russia’s banking sector disclosed that these financial institutions stopped accepting RMB payments from Russia around mid-January. Russia’s central bank reportedly asked these banks in late February not to disclose information about their international partners and the systems used for making settlements so as to reduce the risk of sanctions. The request highly likely underscores Moscow’s attempts to shield its partners from Western punitive measures and to ensure continued co-operation. Nevertheless, the latest reports align with our ongoing assessment that Beijing will highly likely navigate its financial relations with Moscow cautiously to avoid Western (particularly US) secondary sanctions.
*Russia: Corporate exit obstacles, Western sanctions will sustain asset seizure risks for Western firms. Reports from 20 March indicate that since the start of 2024, the Russian state has collected around RUB 35.7bn (USD 385m) from Western firms exiting the Russian market. In July 2023, the government introduced a ten-point list of requirements for corporate exit, forcing exiting companies to sell their assets at 50% of their market value and to pay an additional contribution of 10% of the sale price. The government has also strengthened its nationalisation powers, increasing the risk of asset seizures facing Western firms. Such measures are aimed at deterring capital flight; they provide the Kremlin with effective means to retaliate against Western sanctions. Furthermore, we assess that additional Western financial measures (such as using the Russian central bank’s frozen assets to support Ukraine) will increase tit-for-tat asset seizure risks.
*US: Sanctions against Russia-based firms underscore disinformation risks ahead of election. On 20 March, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions against two individuals and two entities connected to a Russian disinformation campaign involving fake news websites. The Russia-based Social Design Agency (SDA) and Company Group Structura LLC have been accused of impersonating legitimate government and media outlets in aid of Moscow’s continued disinformation efforts. The State Department has vowed to continue countering Russia’s malign influence operations. In the short term, US financial institutions and individuals will be subject to sanctions should they continue to engage in transactions with these firms, increasing their exposure to compliance and reputational risks. In the near term, we assess that state-directed Russian and Chinese operations will increase as Moscow and Beijing attempt to influence November’s presidential election. These efforts will sustain the risks associated with disinformation campaigns. Scrutiny over social media platforms and technology firms will consequently increase in the long term.
Mar 20.
*Russia: Revocation of acquired citizenship underscores growing risks facing anti-war dual nationals. Reports emerged in Russian opposition media outlets on 19 March that the authorities revoked the citizenship of a dual Russian citizen who was convicted of ‘discrediting’ the armed forces. Alexander Somryakov, who was born in Moldova and acquired Russian citizenship, was found guilty of spreading ‘fake news’ about the Russian army and sentenced to six years in prison in July 2023. The reports claim that this is the first known incident in which a person convicted for disseminating ‘false’ information about the Russian armed forces has been stripped of their citizenship, though this cannot be confirmed. President Vladimir Putin signed legislation in April 2023 outlining the circumstances under which a person can be stripped of their acquired Russian citizenship. As such, we assess that the development re-emphasises the risks facing individuals who acquired Russian citizenship are who are perceived to have criticised the war in Ukraine; it comes amid the authorities’ efforts to crack down against dissent.
*Georgia: Electoral code amendments will drive political polarisation, threaten EU bid. On 19 March, Georgia’s parliament, wherein the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party retains a majority, rejected President Salome Zurabishvili’s veto on amendments to the electoral code. According to the amendments, the authority to nominate the Central Election Commission (CEC)’s chairman shifts from the president to the speaker of the parliament if the parliament cannot reach a quorum on choosing a candidate for the chairmanship. Zurabishvili and NGOs underlined that the revised procedure threatens the neutrality of the CEC and violates EU recommendations. According to constitutional amendments abolishing direct presidential elections, the next president will be elected by a parliamentary electoral college, the composition of which will be approved by the CEC. We assess that the new amendments reflect the GD’s efforts to reinforce its control over the CEC to influence the outcome of the next presidential election. The new bill and GD’s efforts to create electoral obstacles for opposition parties will exacerbate political polarisation and threaten Georgia’s EU candidacy bid.
Mar 18.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
• BELGOROD: All-Russian pro-Ukraine units are continuing cross-border raids into Belgorod oblast, though it remains unclear how much territory they currently control
• STRIKES: Growing shortages of air defence missiles will significantly undermine Ukraine’s interception rates over key cities, with unnamed Ukrainian officials predicting a possible reduction in interception rates from 80% to 20% if shortages worsen
• FRANCE: Increasingly assertive French rhetoric towards Russia likely forms part of an effort to reduce fears of a nuclear escalation and increase European support for Ukraine
• FORECAST: Russia’s Central Electoral Commission (CEC) reported that the incumbent President Vladimir Putin received 87.32% of the vote in the 15-17 March presidential election
• BAKHMUT: Nothing significant to report
• BELGOROD: On 17 March, the pro-Ukraine Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) and Siberian Battalion claimed that their forces had entered the border town of Gorkovsky (Belgorod oblast, Russia) and had taken the central administrative building; this is unconfirmed. Video footage appears to show LSR and/or Siberian Battalion forces operating in the town, located 1.3 miles (2km) north of the border and 33 miles (53km) west of Belgorod. Despite claims that the pro-Ukraine units had taken the settlement, Russian sources have refuted these assertions; there is also no visual evidence to confirm who controls the town – though we assess that it likely remains contested. However, while the ongoing all-Russian pro-Ukraine raids into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts are unlikely to have seized large swathes of border territory, it is likely that the LSR and Siberian Battalion continue to operate inside Russia.
• DONETSK: Geolocated footage from 16 Mach shows that Russian forces recently advanced north-west of Tonenke, located west of Avdiivka. Additional footage posted on 16 March indicates that Russian forces have advanced into Nevelske and the central part of Orlivka, located to the north-west of Avdiivka. Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) also claimed that its forces captured Nevelske. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian commander operating in the Avdiivka sector reported on 15 March that Russian assaults increasingly rely on armoured vehicles and that Russian forces aim to create a one-to-ten numerical superiority in the sector.
• KHERSON: Nothing significant to report
• OSKIL-KREMINNA: Nothing significant to report
• SOUTHERN: Geolocated footage published on 14 March indicates that Russian forces have advanced to the north-west of Verbove, located around six miles (10km) east of Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast). While the Robotyne sector is the location of the most intense fighting, Russian forces are also stepping up the tempo of their attacks along the western and eastern flanks. On 17 March, Russian forces claimed they had taken the village of Myrne, located around 12 miles (19km) north-east of Verbove; Russian forces are also attacking further east along the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia oblast border region.
• STRIKES: On 15 March, The Washington Post, quoting Ukrainian sources, reported that Ukraine’s dwindling air defence ammunition is undermining its ability to counter Russian strikes. In February, Ukrainian officials warned their European and US counterparts that Ukrainian forces will possibly run out of certain air defence ammunition by the end of March. Ammunition shortages have, in turn, made Russian strikes more lethal, with Kyiv only being able to intercept 80% of Russian missiles.
• STRIKES: Ukrainian sources quoted by The Washington Post estimate that due to these shortages, Ukrainian forces will have to ration air defence missiles, potentially reducing interception rates even further to only 20%. This would inevitably impact Ukrainian urban centres significantly, increasing the risks facing businesses and their staff therein. Given the US is the only nation able to provide sufficient air defence equipment at scale (particularly for Patriot systems), further Congressional delays in approving US President Joe Biden’s USD 60 bn aid package will be highly detrimental to Ukraine’s ability to absorb Russian long-range attacks.
• STRIKES: Earlier on 15 March, Russian forces launched seven S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles at Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts and one Kh-59 guided missile at Poltava oblast. Meanwhile, Ukrainian air defences reportedly intercepted 27 Shahed-136/131 drones launched by Russia over Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Vinnytsia oblasts. Later on 15 March, the local authorities reported that Russia struck Odesa (Odesa oblast) with an Iskandr-M ballistic missile, killing 20 people and causing power outages – one of the single deadliest strikes against Odesa of the war. On 16 March, Ukrainian forces intercepted two of the Russian-launched 136/131 drones over Kharkiv.
• STRIKES: Overnight on 16-17 March, Russia fired five S-300 missiles at Kharkiv and Donetsk and two Kh-59 missiles at Chernihiv oblast. Ukrainian air defences shot down 14 of 15 Shahed-136/131 drones launched by Russia over Odesa. The two remaining drones damaged agricultural enterprises in the oblast.
• STRIKES: Earlier on 18 March, Russian forces attacked Kharkiv and Sumy with five S-300/S-400 missiles and two Kh-59 missiles, respectively. Reports indicate that the attack damaged a fire station in Kharkiv. Russia also launched 22 Shahed-136/131drones, 17 of which were neutralised by Ukrainian air defences over Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, Rivne, Vinnytsia and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
• STRIKES: As forecasted, Ukrainian forces stepped up drone attacks across European Russia over the weekend with the likely aim of coinciding with the presidential election. Early on 15 March, Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) reportedly co-ordinated a drone attack against an oil refinery in Russia’s Kaluga oblast, causing a fire at the facility. On 16 March, Ukraine’s State Security Service (SBU) launched a drone strike against three oil refineries in Russia’s Samara oblast. The attack caused a fire at two facilities despite anti-drone protection having recently been ramped up near at least one of the sites. Similarly, on the evening of 17 March, drones hit another oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai. Russian pro-Kremlin media claimed that all the drones were neutralised, and that the attack did not damage the oil facility. Over the past week, Ukraine has ramped up attacks against oil refineries across Russia, with the clear aim of hindering Moscow’s ability to supply fuel to the frontline.
• STRIKES: On 17 March, Moscow’s mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, reported that a drone attack targeted the Russian capital. On the same day, the local authorities reported drone attacks against Belgorod, Kaluga, Rostov and Yaroslavl oblasts. The Russian MoD recorded 35 drone attacks in total; they all took place on the last day of the Russian presidential election.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• AID: German media reported on 15 March that the country’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, is trying to convince Chancellor Olaf Scholz to deliver long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. One possible option would involve Berlin transferring the missiles to the UK from where they would be sent to Ukraine; the UK would also control the deployment of the projectiles, as well as their targets. Scholz has argued that Taurus missiles can only be used responsibly with the input of German troops either inside or outside Ukraine. While Baerbock’s proposal will possibly convince Scholz to change his position, her efforts have reportedly not yet been successful.
• AID: On 14 March, the German parliament voted against a motion by the opposition to supply Kyiv with Taurus missiles. Some 494 lawmakers opposed the delivery of Taurus missiles, while 188 voted in favour; a total of five abstained. We assess that domestic pressure will likely remain high as long as Berlin does not provide the capability or find an alternative solution in the coming weeks and months; given Scholz’s previous position in recent weeks, this remains unlikely.
• FRANCE: In an interview on 14 March, French President Emmanuel Macron responded to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin’s nuclear rhetoric. Macron stated that with France’s possession of nuclear weapons comes the responsibility to never escalate, adding that Paris has its own nuclear doctrine and is ‘ready’. The comments come after Putin claimed on 13 March that Russia is always in a state of ‘nuclear readiness’. Nevertheless, Macron’s remarks almost certainly do not indicate that France would launch nuclear weapons at Russia in the near term. Instead, they are most likely aimed at countering Moscow’s information operations to increase Western concerns over a nuclear war.
• FRANCE: French opposition figures criticised Macron following the interview, indicating that Macron’s growing hawkishness over supporting Ukraine is causing rifts within French politics. Éric Ciotti, the leader of Les Républicains, implied that Macron is fanning the flames of a potential global conflict for electoral gain. Meanwhile, Communist leader Fabien Roussel accused Macron of making war-mongering remarks to deflect from domestic issues within France. Notably, Macron stated on 16 March that France wants Russia to observe an Olympic ceasefire in Ukraine during the 2024 Paris Olympic Games (26 July to 11 August). Ultimately, Moscow is highly unlikely to agree to a temporary ceasefire; Kyiv is also unlikely to be willing to participate, as Russia would likely use the hiatus to regroup and launch further attacks after the ceasefire ends.
FORECAST
ELECTION: On 17 March, Russia’s Central Electoral Commission (CEC) reported that the incumbent President Vladimir Putin received 87.32% of the vote in the 15-17 March presidential election. While the CEC underscored Russia’s highest post-Soviet turnout, with 74% allegedly casting their ballot, we assess that the vote was almost certainly the least free and fair event of its kind in Russia since the Soviet era.
At least 75 people were detained in 17 cities for participating in the passive ‘Noon Against Putin’ protests organised by supporters of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Additional anti-Kremlin actions involved individuals pouring ink into ballot boxes and one woman throwing a Molotov cocktail at a polling station. Although these actions underscored the persistence of anti-Kremlin activism in Russia, they remained relatively isolated and failed to attract mass participation. Intense repression will therefore likely continue following Putin’s victory.
Anti-Kremlin protest activity was also observed outside Russia during the election period. Reports emerged on 17 March that a man threw two Molotov cocktails at the Russian embassy in Chișinău (Moldova). Meanwhile, Russian citizens participated in the ‘Noon Against Putin’ protests outside Russian diplomatic missions in various countries, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and South Korea. Around 2,000 people reportedly gathered outside the Russian embassy in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) on 17 March.
Putin disclosed that the priorities for his new mandate are ‘resolving problems’ in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and bolstering Russia’s military and defence capabilities. Putin claimed that the election results in the Russian-annexed regions of Ukraine indicate that Moscow is doing ‘everything right’. Russia’s CEC reported a landslide victory for Putin in these regions; 95.23% in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), 94.12% in the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), 88.12% in Kherson and 92.83% in Zaporizhzhia. Putin’s comments highly likely reinforce that Russia remains committed to continuing the war and retaining the annexed regions of Ukraine in the long term.
Putin also claimed that Russia ‘at some point’ will possibly have to create a ‘sanitary zone’ in regions currently under Ukrainian control, essentially hinting at the creation of a buffer zone and therefore further territorial conquests. He did not provide further details but stated that such an area will possibly have to be large enough to prevent foreign-made weapons reaching Russian territory. Ukraine increased its shelling of Russian border regions, while pro-Ukraine Russian units conducted raids into Russia ahead of the presidential election. Putin’s comments underscore the Kremlin’s concerns over repeated border incidents and its desire to prevent future such activity, though the creation of a buffer zone along the entire Ukrainian border is unlikely to be achieved in the short-to-medium term ahead of (or even after) the expected summer offensive. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Mar 24. Russia warns Japan of ‘serious consequences’ if Patriot missiles made there end up in Ukraine – RIA. Russia’s newly appointed ambassador to Japan has warned Tokyo of serious consequences and retaliatory steps if Patriot missile systems manufactured under U.S. licence in Japan end up in Ukraine, the RIA news agency reported on Friday.
RIA cited the new envoy, Nikolai Nozdrev, as saying that Moscow would be watching closely to see where Japanese arms exports ended up after Tokyo softened its export rules at the end of last year.
In particular, he said, Russia would be watching to see if and when any Patriot missile complexes and missiles made in Japan under U.S. licence are exported to the United States and then to Ukraine.
“Accordingly, we will be watching carefully to make sure that the Patriots delivered do not end up in Ukraine, because if that happens, there will be the most severe consequences for bilateral (Russia-Japan) relations, including our retaliatory steps,” RIA cited him as saying. (Source: Reuters)
24 Mar 24. Ukraine says it hit two Russian warships in strikes on Crimea. The Ukrainian military said it hit two large Russian landing ships in attacks on the annexed Crimean peninsula early on Sunday, as well as a communications centre and other infrastructure used by the Russian navy in the Black Sea.
The statement did not say how it hit the targets, but a Moscow-installed official in the region reported a major Ukrainian air attack and said air defences had shot down more than 10 missiles over the Crimean port of Sevastopol.
“The defence forces of Ukraine successfully hit the Azov and Yamal large landing ships, a communications centre and also several infrastructure facilities of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in temporarily occupied Crimea,” Ukraine’s military said.
Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Russian-installed governor of Sevastopol, said on the Telegram messaging app that a 65-year-old man was killed when three homes were hit by shrapnel.
He also said earlier on Sunday that transport infrastructure including passenger boats and buses were partially damaged, with windows broken on five boats. Three passenger buses, 13 school buses and one trolley bus were among vehicles damaged, he added.
Reuters could not immediately verify the extent of any damage.
(Source: Reuters)
24 Mar 24. Russia violates Poland’s air space in attack on Ukraine, Poland’s armed forces say. Russia violated Poland’s airspace early on Sunday with a cruise missile launched at targets in western Ukraine, Poland’s armed forces said.
Russia launched 57 missiles and drones against Ukraine in the early hours, including attacking Kyiv and the western region of Lviv near the Polish border.
“On March 24 at 4:23 a.m. (0323 GMT), there was a violation of Polish airspace by one of the cruise missiles launched overnight by long-range aviation of the Russian Federation,” the armed forces said on the social media platform X.
“The object entered Polish space near the town of Oserdow (Lublin Voivodeship) and stayed there for 39 seconds. During the entire flight, it was observed by military radar systems.”
The Polish foreign ministry intends to summon the Russian ambassador over the airspace violation, deputy foreign minister Andrzej Szejna told private broadcaster Polsat News.
Poland calls on Russia “to stop terrorist air attacks on the inhabitants and territory of Ukraine, end the war and address the country’s internal problems,” the ministry’s spokesman said in a statement. (Source: Reuters)
21 Mar 24. Russia says its production of artillery shells has soared. Russia’s defence minister said on Thursday that artillery shell production had risen by nearly 2.5 times in the past year, while artillery component production had soared by a factor of 22 as Moscow races to rearm faster than the West can supply Ukraine.
Russia’s current dominance in artillery production is a factor that could help decide the course of the Ukraine war – which is largely fought with artillery and drones – at a time when the West fears Russia is set for more battlefield wins.
CNN reported, opens new tab earlier this month that Russia is producing nearly three times as many artillery munitions as the United States and Europe combined, citing unidentified Western intelligence sources.
At a meeting with weapons manufactures, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said orders to expand artillery production had been successful far earlier than planned and praised workers for putting in round-the-clock shifts.
“After the start of operation of the new facilities, the volume of production actually increased by almost 2.5 times,” Shoigu was quoted as saying by his ministry.
“If we talk about the manufacture of artillery ammunition, the volume of production of components for this ammunition has been increased almost 22 times, 75% of components are being restored,” he said.
He indicated there were more ambitious targets for this year, but did not give details. One defence worker was shown on state television telling Shoigu that his plant now produces in one month what it used to produce in an entire year.
Russia primarily fires 152-mm and 122-mm shells.
Given the sensitivity of weapons production, Reuters was unable to verify the production of Russian munitions.
President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, something he called a special military operation, in February 2022, triggering a major European war after eight years of conflict in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian forces on one side and pro-Russian Ukrainians and Russian proxies on the other.
Russia currently controls a little under a fifth of Ukraine and says the territory is now part of Russia. Ukraine says it is the subject of an imperial-style land grab and that it will not rest until every last Russian soldier is ejected from its land.
(Source: Reuters)
22 Mar 24. The US has urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, warning the drone strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation, according to three people familiar with the discussions. The repeated warnings from Washington were delivered to senior officials at Ukraine’s state security service, the SBU, and its military intelligence directorate, known as the GUR, the people told the Financial Times. Both intelligence units have steadily expanded their own drone programmes to strike Russian targets on land, sea and in the air since the start of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. One person said that the White House had grown increasingly frustrated by brazen Ukrainian drone attacks that have struck oil refineries, terminals, depots and storage facilities across western Russia, hurting its oil production capacity. Russia remains one of the world’s most important energy exporters despite western sanctions on its oil and gas sector. Oil prices have risen about 15 per cent this year, to $85 a barrel, pushing up fuel costs just as US President Joe Biden begins his campaign for re-election. Washington is also concerned that if Ukraine keeps hitting Russian facilities, including many that are hundreds of miles from the border, Russia could retaliate by lashing out at energy infrastructure relied on by the west. This includes the CPC pipeline carrying oil from Kazakhstan through Russia to the global market. Western companies including ExxonMobil and Chevron use the pipeline, which Moscow briefly shut in 2022. “We do not encourage or enable attacks inside of Russia,” an NSC spokesperson said. The CIA declined to comment. In Kyiv, a spokesperson for the SBU declined to comment. Officials at GUR and Zelenskyy’s office did not respond to requests for comment. Ukraine has stepped up its air attacks in recent weeks, as its drone programmes expand and the ground war shifts in Moscow’s favour. It also follows growing discontent in Kyiv over what is seen as the west’s ambivalent approach to curbing Moscow’s energy revenues. There have been at least 12 attacks on major Russian refineries since 2022, and at least nine this year, along with several terminals, depots and storage facilities, according to a military intelligence official in Kyiv. Helima Croft, a former CIA analyst now at RBC Capital Markets, recently noted that Ukraine had shown it could strike most of the oil export infrastructure in western Russia, putting about 60 per cent of the country’s exports at risk. The US objections come as Biden faces a tough re-election battle this year with petrol prices on the rise, increasing almost 15 per cent this year to around $3.50 a gallon. “Nothing terrifies a sitting American president more than a surge in pump prices during an election year,” said Bob McNally, president of consultancy Rapidan Energy and a former White House energy adviser. Ukraine has steadily increased drone strikes as its technologies have advanced. Ukrainian officials claim to have developed drones with a range in excess of 1,000km and payloads capable of inflicting severe damage. Kyiv launched two of its largest and most widespread drone attacks last week, with operations by both the GUR and SBU successfully targeting seven Russian energy facilities in consecutive days. Over the past year, GRU and SBU sea drones have also struck Russian ports, destroyed several Russian warships in the Black Sea and hit Moscow’s prized Crimea bridge connecting Russia to the occupied Ukrainian peninsula. The aim of the “special operations” is to hamper the supply of fuel to Russia’s troops and cut funding for the Kremlin’s war effort, according to one Ukrainian official involved in planning and conducting the attacks. Kyiv also wants to deliver a symbolic blow by bringing the war closer to Moscow and showing its air defences — including those around the Kremlin — can be penetrated. The air campaign is also seen by some officials as a means to spur Washington into approving the $60bn military assistance package held up in Congress that is critical for Ukraine’s defence. (Source: FT.com)
20 Mar 24. Putin Directs Security Services to Target Russian ‘Traitors’ Amid Border Attacks.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has mandated an intensive manhunt by the Federal Security Service (FSB) to locate and “punish” Russian nationals who have sided with Ukraine against Russia’s military actions. In a statement made during an FSB board meeting, Putin stressed the importance of identifying these individuals by name, asserting that they would face retribution indefinitely, regardless of their location. This directive underscores a broader campaign against what Putin perceives as betrayal by Russians participating in Ukrainian military efforts or supporting Ukraine’s resistance.
The context for Putin’s orders includes recent activities by Russian militia groups, namely the Russian Volunteer Corps, the Freedom of Russia Legion, and the Siberian Battalion. These groups have launched diversionary operations and artillery strikes within Russia’s Belgorod and Kursk regions, which border Ukraine. These actions have reportedly inflicted significant casualties and have led to calls for civilian evacuations. Moscow has accused the Ukrainian government of orchestrating these raids, a charge Kyiv denies, although it acknowledges cooperation with anti-Kremlin forces within Ukraine.
In response to these challenges, Putin has proposed measures to fortify Russia’s border security, including the potential creation of a buffer zone to thwart incursions and the development of mobile combat units within the FSB. These steps are part of a larger strategy to safeguard Russian territory from what the Kremlin describes as serious enemy losses inflicted by Ukrainian and pro-Ukraine forces.
Additionally, Putin has called on the FSB to aid Russian companies in circumventing Western sanctions and to secure the nation’s financial and banking systems. These economic directives come amidst claims of Russia’s resilience and growth despite international sanctions imposed following the invasion of Ukraine. The Russian leader’s comparison of current fighters with historical figures from World War II who fought alongside Nazi Germany further exemplifies his stance on Russians joining Ukrainian forces, indicating a deep-seated intention to combat what he views as a significant internal threat. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
22 Mar 24. First Ukrainian pilots graduate from RAF flight training.
The first Ukrainian pilots to have undergone intensive training under the guidance of Royal Air Force instructors have graduated from flight school.
The 10 pilots received basic flying, ground school and language training in the UK and will one day form the first line of defence in protecting Ukraine’s skies from Putin’s forces.
The cohort will now move to advanced flying training provided by the French Air Force before learning to fly F-16 fighter jets.
This effort is a key UK contribution to the Air Capability Coalition, co-led by the United States, Denmark and the Netherlands, which is helping build an air force consisting of modern fighter jets to form the cornerstone of Ukraine’s armed forces. The capability coalitions were established last year to provide a long-term commitment to supporting Ukraine’s armed forces, with the UK co-leading the maritime and drone coalitions.
Secretary of State for Defence, Grant Shapps said:
I would like to congratulate these brave pilots on completing their initial training here in the UK. Thanks to the world-renowned skills of RAF, these pilots have received some of the best training available and are now a step closer to joining the fight against Putin’s illegal invasion.
The UK has led the way in building Ukraine’s air capabilities over the last two years, enhancing its aircraft with additional equipment, as well as being the first nation to provide long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine.
Ukraine has been using its Air Force to devastating effect, degrading the Russian Black Sea Fleet and severely damaging its Headquarters. This milestone is another step forward for Ukraine’s aerial capabilities – together with our allies we are showing that we will continue to stand by Ukraine’s side.
A modern air force will provide a significant boost to Ukraine’s capabilities, which currently consist of Soviet-era aircraft, acting both as a strong deterrent and highly effective countermeasure against Putin’s own forces – limiting their ability to attack targets within Ukraine.
While the UK does not operate the F-16 fighter jets which Ukraine has chosen to form the core of its modernised air force, the Prime Minister and Defence Secretary have consistently urged partners and allies to back an international programme to provide training and jets to the Ukrainians, which is scheduled to deliver the first F-16s to Ukraine by summer 2024.
As part of their training, the pilots were taught general aircraft handling, flying by the aircraft’s instruments, low level navigation and advanced formation flying by experienced RAF instructors. They also received English language training to assist in their training and to boost interoperability with NATO air forces – with English the standardised international flight language.
Having worked closely with the French Air Force to align our training programmes, the pilots will now continue to France to conduct advanced flight training before they progress to training on the F-16 aircraft itself.
The trainees join more than 60,000 Ukrainians who have received training in the UK since Putin first ordered the invasion of Crimea in 2014, including 36,000 recruits since 2022 through Operation Interflex.
One of the Ukrainian pilots said:
I have enjoyed being in the United Kingdom and being part of this training program. The course has been challenging and enjoyable It has made me a better pilot. I am grateful to the UK for its support to Ukraine and I am personally grateful to the Royal Air Force instructors for preparing me for the future.
The Prime Minister confirmed the UK’s intent to support the Air Capability Coalition last year with basic flying training, and the RAF will continue this support to fresh cohorts of Ukrainian pilots and ground crew.
The UK remains fully committed to supporting Ukraine, with £2.5bn already earmarked for further military support through 2024, including a recently announced £325m of bilateral support to provide more than 10,000 advanced drones, and £245m to continue to provide much-needed artillery ammunition. (Source: Sibylline)
21 Mar 24. NATO military committee chief, in Kyiv, calls for strong allied support. NATO Military Committee Chief Rob Bauer said during a visit to Kyiv on Thursday that Ukraine’s allies should not be too pessimistic about its ability to repel Russian troops and called for important aid to be delivered quickly.
Bauer led the first official visit to Kyiv by a NATO military delegation since February 2022 when Russia sent thousands of troops to Ukraine in a multi-pronged invasion.
Kyiv’s troops are facing shortages of ammunition shells and manpower, and are on the back foot in the east where Russian forces are inching forward.
“Ukraine needs even more support. And you need it now. Time in Ukraine is not measured in days, weeks or months. It is measured in human lives. In allied nations a week is a week. In Ukraine a week is a mother, a father, child, friend, lover, lost forever,” he told the Kyiv Security Forum.
He hailed Ukraine’s resilience and ability to adjust quickly while changing many aspects of modern warfare.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, writing on his website, said he had outlined to Bauer Ukraine’s most pressing needs in terms of weapons, ammunition and drones.
Zelenskiy said they discussed NATO’s role in coordinating support for Ukraine and developing its defence potential.
Ukraine, the president said, hoped for an assessment of Ukraine’s achievements at NATO’s forthcoming Washington summit that “will bring Ukraine closer to membership of the alliance”.
In his remarks to the security forum, Bauer also said lively debate around a bill on military mobilisation now before Ukraine’s parliament was a normal part of a democratic society.
00:28Ukrainian women tell of beatings by Russian soldiers
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“It’s cumbersome in democracy, it’s cumbersome in a liberal economy to convince people,” he said. “I understand if you are impatient and say it’s not going fast enough…But this is unfortunately the way it is.
Bauer also met Ukraine’s Army Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi for talks on the current combat situation. Syrskyi said on Facebook that ammunition supplies and air defences were discussed.
With Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba Bauer had a talk on prospects for combat training for Ukrainian servicemen and defence industries cooperation, the ministry said.
(Source: Reuters)
21 Mar 24. Brussels is actively exploring how to work around an EU treaty clause prohibiting arms purchases from the union’s budget, as it steps up efforts to increase financing for defence and Ukraine. The European Commission, the bloc’s executive, has proposed that a legal task force revisit a key provision — known as Article 41(2) — that stops the EU common budget from funding “operations having military or defence implications”, according to four people familiar with the discussions. Any move to use the budget to purchase lethal weapons would mark the most significant shift in Brussels’ defence policy since the start of the war against Ukraine. If a more flexible legal interpretation is established and backed by member states — some of which have deep reservations about such a move — proponents hope it would allow Brussels to become a direct purchaser of lethal weapons, and play a bigger role in the continent’s defence industry. “It would be absolutely groundbreaking,” said one of the people, all of whom were not authorised to discuss the confidential plans. “It could change a huge amount.” Fears over Russia’s vast military ramp-up and its potential threat to Europe, combined with concerns over the longevity of US security guarantees to the continent, have prompted moves towards Europe’s biggest rearmament since the cold war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday urged EU leaders to increase their military support. “Unfortunately, the use of artillery at the frontline by our soldiers is humiliating for Europe in the sense that Europe can provide more. And it is crucial to prove it now,” he said. EU member states agreed in February 2022 to finance weapons shipments to Ukraine, but only through a multilateral fund set up outside the EU budget that bypassed Article 41(2) of the bloc’s governing treaties. Treaty change is seen as politically impossible. That fund — the European Peace Facility (EPF) — requires cumbersome negotiations between 27 capitals each time it needs to be replenished. The commission is keen to find a legal way to bring it inside the budget in order to make it more efficient and potentially bolster its size. The legal debate turns on whether Article 41(2) only applies specifically to EU military operations. If so, proponents argue, it could permit Brussels to buy weapons for operations conducted by other entities, such as the Ukrainian armed forces, the people said. The legal service of the Council of the EU, the body that represents member states, is bullish on the ability to work around the language of Article 41(2), the people said. But the commission’s lawyers are more conservative. To resolve differences, the commission has proposed to member states that “a joint legal task force” examine the issue “to enhance the EU’s defence readiness”, according to a document seen by the Financial Times. The legal work is at an early stage and could result in no changes, three of the people cautioned. Member states can take the commission to court if they believe it has broken the bloc’s treaties. The talks come as EU leaders meeting at a summit in Brussels on Thursday discussed using proceeds earned from immobilised Russian state assets to fund military support to Ukraine, and the potential to issue new joint debt to invest in European defence projects. Under a proposal from the commission, the profits arising from Russia’s frozen assets would be funnelled via the off-budget EPF. But the funds could be moved into the EU budget if lawyers are able to determine that using it to buy weapons for Ukraine is not in breach of the treaty. (Source: FT.com)
21 Mar 24. Poland and Germany take lead on ‘tank coalition’ for Ukraine.
Germany and Poland have announced a new Armoured Capability Coalition to support Ukraine.
German and Polish Defence ministers announced on 18 March that the two countries will take the lead on an Armoured Capability Coalition for Ukraine.
The ‘tank coalition’ has already seen the UK, Sweden and Italy apply to participate, according to Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defence.
“This will be one of the most important coalitions to have been created,” said Kosiniak-Kamysz. “This is the first such tangible initiative. This is a structure that will be built and get Ukraine closer to Nato.”
Since the beginning of the war, various capability coalition groups have formed to supply Ukraine with a range of military technologies to assist the country in its defence against the illegal invasion from Russia.
Notable amongst them so far has been the F-16 coalition that is training Ukrainian pilots and supplying the multirole fighter aircraft. Another example is the Capability Coalition for Integrated Air and Missile Defence, which met for the first time in December with France and Germany in joint lead of the coalition.
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The ‘tank coalition’ announcement comes three months before the two countries assume responsibility for EU’s Rapid Response Forces in Europe, with each readying 2,500 troops for swift deployment and reaction.
The announcement did not include specific details of the activities of the Armoured Capability Coalition, but Kosiniak-Kamysz underlined his thanks to German Defence Minster Boris Pistorius for his contribution to the Nato Ukraine Training and Education Centre.
So far, Germany has delivered numerous armoured combat vehicles to Ukraine, both from Bundeswehr stocks and from industry. Total German material contributions from its own stocks have amounted to €5.2bn ($5.6bn). On 19 March, at a meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group, Germany committed to the delivery 100 protected infantry fighting vehicles and 100 other transport vehicles.
The recent Ukraine Contact Group also so Germany commits a further 10,000 rounds of ammunition from German stocks, and to finance and another 100,000 artillery shells for Ukraine, and to cover the costs of 180,000 rounds from the Czech initiative. (Source: army-technology.com)
20 Mar 24. Dutch providing Ukraine with F-16 ammunition, drones, minister says. The Netherlands is providing Ukraine with 350m euros for F-16 fighter jet ammunition and advanced reconnaissance drones, Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren announced in Kyiv on Wednesday. Speaking to Reuters in an interview at the conclusion of a two-day trip to Ukraine, Ollongren said she had come to show solidarity and announce the new aid package.
At the Ramstein group meeting of Ukraine’s allies, Ollongren said 150m euros will fund guided air-to-ground missiles that can be fired from F-16s, while 200m will go to Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) drones, according to a Dutch defence ministry press release.
The Netherlands has pledged 2bn euros in military aid for Ukraine in 2024. A significant share will fund ammunition and drones, which Kyiv has said are desperately needed to end battlefield losses against Russia.
Denmark, the Netherlands and the United States expect to deliver the first of dozens of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine this summer after establishing a pilot training programme and donating aircraft.
In Kyiv, Ollongren said the Danish aircraft would arrive first, but they would be followed by the first Dutch planes later in 2024.
“I’m very confident that we will start delivering F-16s this summer… Denmark first, and we have a schedule … so in the second half of the year the Dutch F-16s will be going this way.”
Asked about the pause in U.S. military aid as Republicans in Congress block a crucial aid bill, Ollongren said that while Ukraine had many friends in Europe, continuing without U.S. support would be difficult.
“That would not be easy, and I hope it is not the direction we are going in,” she said.
Ollongren said European production of ammunition would be scaled up “significantly” by the end of the year so that the artillery munition deficit faced currently by Ukraine would not be repeated.
“We have to be realistic, and consider the possibility that it might be a lengthy war, and it is better to plan for a long war,” she said.
Ollongren said the Dutch armed forces were learning lessons from the ramping up of drone warfare in Ukraine.
“This technology has developed more quickly than anybody would have anticipated two years ago, and we have to learn.”
Dutch drone technology companies Deltaquad, Avalor AI and AEC Skyline discussed cooperation with Ukrainian officials to increase Kyiv’s production capabilities. Several industrial contracts were signed with Ukraine, the Dutch Defence Ministry said.
During Ollongren’s visit to the eastern Dnipro region, Ukrainian military leaders repeated their calls for more air defence systems, spare parts and ammunition which is needed to halt advances by better-equipped Russian forces. (Source: Reuters)
20 Mar 24. Russia’s wallet bleeds as Ukraine attacks multiple oil and gas sites that help fund war.
Ukraine is aiming at Russia’s wallet as it begins targeting the country’s largest oil and gas refineries, hundreds of miles inside the country’s border.
Russia is planning to spend more than $100bn on its military this year and, in response, Ukraine is launching drone strikes against its enemy’s vital facilities in a bid to reduce the Kremlin’s war chest.
Since January, and to date, Ukraine has been responsible for attacks on 12 Russian oil refineries, with the largest being the plant at Ryazan, which refines nearly 13 m tonnes of crude a year, nearly 6% of the country’s total.
Ukraine’s targets make up 10% of Russia’s overall production of oil, with the Novoshakhtinsk refinery proving a popular target.
The site produces 96,000 barrels every day for Russia’s export market and has been bombed four times since the war began, leading to a halt in production.
Ukraine found the most success in strikes near the city of Nizhny Novgorod, which is 270 miles east of Moscow.
The fourth largest refinery in the country has had its production rate reduced by half due to repeated attacks by Ukrainian drones. At maximum capacity, the facility can produce 5m tonnes of gasoline, as well as diesel and aviation fuel.
The purpose of these attacks is to cut Russia’s oil exports, a prime source of war funding for the Kremlin, and impact the supply of fuel and lubricants to the military.
The attacks have also begun to affect Russians, with prices of gasoline at the country’s pumps rising to a six-month high.
President Zelensky’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak said Ukraine was fighting everything that finances Russia’s army and the war. (Source: forces.net)
21 Mar 24. Kyiv hit by Russian cruise missiles in series of ‘massive strikes.’ Kyiv was hit by a wave of Russian missiles in the first big strike on the capital in weeks, said the head of Ukraine’s military administration.
Serhiy Popko said cruise and ballistic missiles rained down on the city from different directions, with air alerts lasting for nearly three hours.
Mayor Vitali Klitschko said at least 10 people were injured across the city. An 11-year-old girl was among the two people taken to hospital.
Mr Klitschko first reported explosions in the capital at just after 3am.
Mr Popko said Russia used strategic bombers to carry out the attack while also launching some missiles from its territory.
“After a pause of 44 days, the enemy launched another missile attack on Kyiv,” he said. “All emergency services are working on sites. Clearing the consequences of the missile attack is underway.”
The attack comes amid a series of heavy cross-border attacks between the two sides.
The governor of Russia’s Belgorod region said three people had been killed in “massive strikes” involving air attacks and ground incursions by armed groups from Ukraine. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
19 Mar 24. France calls Russian spy chief remarks ‘irresponsible’ provocation. France’s defence ministry on Tuesday called remarks made by the chief of Russia’s foreign intelligence service disinformation and irresponsible after he suggested Paris was preparing to send 2,000 troops to Ukraine.
“The manoeuvre orchestrated by Sergei Naryshkin, Director of Russian Foreign Intelligence, once again illustrates Russia’s systematic use of disinformation,” the defence ministry said in a statement. “We consider this type of provocation irresponsible.”
Naryshkin was quoted by TASS news agency saying France was preparing to send some 2,000 troops to Ukraine and that French troops would be a legitimate target for Russian forces if they “ever come to the territory of the Russian world with a sword”.
Franco-Russian relations have deteriorated further in recent weeks as Paris has increased its support to Ukraine, including signing a bilateral long-term security accord and promising to send more long-range cruise missiles.
President Emmanuel Macron has also adopted a tougher position on Russia, vowing that Moscow must be defeated.
He has not ruled out that European troops may one day have to go to Ukraine, although has made clear that France has no intention of instigating hostilities against Russia.
Paris has accused Russia of habitually spreading false information. In January it dismissed any notion that Paris had mercenaries in Ukraine a day after Russian lawmakers adopted a resolution condemning French mercenaries there. (Source: Reuters)
19 Mar 24. Putin calls on KGB’s heirs to bust the West’s sanctions.
• Summary
• FSB is one of core institutions of modern Russia
• Putin tells its spies to work with other agencies on security
• Says should use AI, quantum physics achievements to tackle West
MOSCOW, March 19 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday told the Federal Security Service (FSB), the main successor to the Soviet-era KGB, to help Russian companies bust Western sanctions and expand their clout into new markets around the world.
In an attempt to sink the Russian economy and force Putin to change course, the West imposed on Russia what it casts as the toughest ever sanctions shortly after the Kremlin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Putin, though, says Russia’s wartime economy has thrived despite the sanctions, with the manufacture of artillery shells far exceeding the West’s and the Russian economy growing 3.6% last year.
In a speech at the FSB spy service’s annual meeting at the Lubyanka in central Moscow following his landslide victory in Sunday’s election, Putin said its spies should work with other agencies to increase the security of the banking and financial systems.
He told the FSB “to provide support to our companies that are actively developing despite the obstacles created for them and which are exploring new markets but are faced with openly hostile actions” from the West.
“Yes, they create temporary problems for us,” Putin said, adding that he had spoken to the government about how sanctions had affected some large projects. “But everything, of course, will be done anyway.”
00:09Ukrainian tattoo artist finds ‘home’ in New York
The KGB, one of the most powerful institutions of the former Soviet Union with influence stretching far beyond the U.S.S.R.’s borders and far beyond simply spying and security, lost much of its power and influence when the Union fell in 1991.
But just eight years later, the KGB, by then the FSB, had one of its own – Putin – as master of the Kremlin.
‘TRAITORS’
Putin casts the Ukraine war as part of a centuries-old battle with a decadent West which he says humiliated Russia after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 by encroaching on what the Kremlin boss considers to be his country’s sphere of influence.
As a KGB spy in East Germany, Putin witnessed the Soviet Union crumbling. He told FSB officers that the West was a dangerous enemy that was using an array of weapons to sow discord in Russia including propaganda, technology and finance.
He said the West was trying in Russia to stoke “smuta”, a dreaded Russian word which means unrest, turmoil or trouble and is associated with the so-called “time of troubles” which preceded the rise of the Romanov dynasty in 1613.
Putin said the FSB should therefore use Russian achievements in quantum technology and Artificial Intelligence to counter the West, “seriously” strengthen its anti-terrorism activities and said counter-intelligence should be more vigilant.
“The challenges we face and attempts to undermine our development require us to work systematically and consistently in all areas. In the economy, technology, culture, in the social sphere, in strengthening our state and public institutions,” he said.
After Ukraine tried to use Russian proxies to pierce Russian borders, Putin said such traitors should be hunted down.
“We will punish them without limitation wherever they are.” (Source: Reuters)
19 Mar 24. EU plans to send Russian frozen asset revenues to Ukraine arms fund.
• Summary
• Companies
• Borrell says 90% of revenues should go to military fund
• 10% would be used to boost Ukraine defence industry
• Decision rests with EU’s 27 member countries
BRUSSELS, March 19 (Reuters) – The European Union should take 90% of revenues from Russian assets frozen in Europe and transfer them to an EU-run fund that finances weapons for Ukraine, the bloc’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell proposed on Tuesday.
Borrell told reporters in Brussels he would submit a formal proposal to the EU’s 27 member governments on Wednesday, ahead of a summit of the bloc’s leaders on Thursday and Friday.
Under Borrell’s plan, proceeds from the assets such as interest payments would go to the European Peace Facility, an off-budget fund that provides military aid to countries outside the EU and has been used mainly for Ukraine.
“If we do that, well, the Russians will not be very happy,” Borrell said. “The amount of money – three bn (euros) per year – is not even extraordinary. But it is not negligible.”
The summit will likely not decide on the proposal but rather hold an initial discussion on it, officials said.
Some 70% of all Russian assets immobilised in the West is held in the Belgian central securities depository Euroclear, which has the equivalent of 190 bn euros ($206.1 bn) worth of various Russian central bank securities and cash.
Borrell said not all the money flowing into the Peace Facility from the seized revenues would be used for Ukraine, but he expected most of it would be.
He proposed the remaining 10% of the seized revenues go into the EU’s central budget – which cannot be used to by weapons – to boost the defence capacity of Ukrainian industry.
A senior EU official said last week that Russian assets frozen in the European Union are likely to generate between 15 bn and 20 bn euros in after-tax profits until 2027, depending on global interest rates.
Borrell stressed the proposal was to use profits from the assets held in Europe rather than the assets themselves.
RECONSTRUCTION TO WEAPONS
European officials initially discussed using the proceeds from the frozen assets to fund the reconstruction of Ukraine.
But in recent weeks, they have increasingly focused on how to help Ukraine militarily as Kyiv’s ammunition-starved forces struggle to hold back Russia’s invasion while a major U.S. military aid package is stuck in the U.S. Congress.
“We are … in a more dire situation. So the delivery of weapons is even more important,” said a senior EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity. But the official said leaders would need time to study the proposal carefully.
“You need legal advice, you need financial experts,” said the official, briefing reporters on this week’s summit.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are among leaders who have backed the idea of using the revenues for military aid to Ukraine.
Borrell said some members of the EU had voiced concern about legal issues and others about the effect on financial markets. But he said the European Central Bank had been closely consulted as EU staff developed the proposal.
Some governments have also voiced concerns that Moscow could retaliate by seizing assets of Western companies held in Russia.
But Borrell argued the time had come to make a decision, which will need the unanimous consent of EU members to pass. ($1 = 0.9217 euros) (Source: Reuters)
19 Mar 24. Ukraine appeals for air defence aid, citing hundreds of missile attacks in March. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy appealed to Kyiv’s allies on Tuesday to supply more air defences, saying Russia had launched 130 missiles, more than 320 attack drones and almost 900 guided bombs in attacks this month alone.
More than two years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, Kyiv relies heavily on foreign military aid, some of which has waned. A major aid package from the United States, a close wartime ally, has been blocked by congressional Republicans for months.
“We require more protection, specifically a fully realistic number of air defense systems that our partners possess,” Zelenskiy said on social media platform X.
“Patriots and other systems must do what they were designed for: protect lives, not collect dust in storage.”
Ukraine’s air force, Zelenskiy said, has “demonstrated that it is capable of successfully shooting down” missiles, drones and Russian military aircraft.
A Ukrainian delegation prioritised securing more air defence systems and missiles at a meeting of allied defence ministers in Germany’s Ramstein air base on Tuesday, the Ukrainian defence ministry said.
Russian troops have stepped up their use of highly destructive guided bombs in recent months, targeting battlefield positions and regions close to the front line.
In February, a Ukrainian air force spokesperson said Russia had launched more than 8,000 missiles and 4,630 drones during the invasion to date.
In March, Russia concentrated air strikes on Odesa, targeting the Black Sea port city and region almost every day. Two ballistic missiles killed 21 and injured over 70 people in one attack last week.
Moscow denies targeting civilians in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine which it launched in February 2022, although many have been killed in frequent Russian air strikes across the country. (Source: Reuters)
20 Mar 24. Ukraine attacks Russia with Patriot missile.
Ukraine fired a Patriot missile into Russia amid a volley of cross-border attacks overnight, according to Moscow. Russia’s defence ministry said air defence units had intercepted a dozen rockets and missiles over the Belgorod region by 10pm on Tuesday. Soon after, it said it had intercepted two more missiles, including a US-made Patriot, over the neighbouring Kursk region. Drones were also downed in the Saratov region, according to defence officials. The US’s Patriot system is one of an array of sophisticated air defence units supplied by the West to help Ukraine’s air strikes. Meanwhile, intense Russian bombing of Ukraine’s northeastern border region of Sumy prompted Kyiv to order evacuations of civilians. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
19 Mar 24. Security Service of Ukraine crack down on illegal military weaponry sales. The Security Service of Ukraine have announced the seizure of hidden weapon caches in Ukraine, before the military equipment could be on-sold for profit.
SSU and National Police officers prevented the selling of Russian ‘trophy’ weapons, ammunition and explosives by four black market arms dealers, according to a statement published on March 14 by the law enforcement authority, intelligence and security agency of the Ukraine government.
The SSU, under the procedural supervision of the Prosecutor’s Office, seized an underground cache of weapons, located in a forest in the de-occupied Izium district of the Kharkiv Oblast region.
Seized items, allegedly sourced from a former Russian base, included several boxes of TNT and plastic explosive including more than 60kg of explosives, a Dragunov sniper rifle, ammunition for grenade launchers and Fagot anti-tank missile system, large-calibre machine guns and more than 13,000 rounds of various calibres.
Law enforcement officials have also located hidden weapon arsenals left by occupiers fleeing from the Kyiv region. Two individuals are alleged to have found the caches and decided to sell the weapons, according to the SSU.
Items seized from the weapon caches include a Russian BRDM armoured scout vehicle with large-calibre machine gun, more than 150 rounds of grenade launcher ammunition and 15 Russian-made combat grenades.
The SSU also detained a local resident in the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine for trying to sell a Kalashnikov handgun and other items. A follow-up search of the man’s residence found items including two AK-74 assault rifles, four combat grenades and more than 1,300 rounds of ammunition of assorted calibres.
Persons involved have been served notices of suspicion for illegal handling of weapons, ammunition or explosives. Suspects face up to seven years in prison and all seized munitions will be handed over to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In December last year, the SSU prevented the sale of combat aircraft components in Dnipro, central Ukraine. The starter generators, aircraft pumps and spare parts for MiG-29 multi-purpose fighters (worth around USD$268,000) were allegedly stolen from a Ukrainian enterprise for intended sale to Russia.
In November last year, the SSU and National Police apprehended two individuals allegedly attempting to sell arms and ammunition illegally in Rivne and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts region.
In September 2023, The SSU and National Police detained the rector of a temple belonging to Moscow patriarchate’s Ukrainian Orthodox Church after an investigation into the selling weapons and ammunition in Kherson.
The SSU documented the cleric keeping enemy arsenals in two caches and documented an attempt to sell two Igla man-portable air defence systems with components; as well as ‘offered’ RPG-7 anti-tank grenade launcher ammunition. The priest also allegedly kept a machine gun, Kalashnikov rifle, F-1 combat grenades and automatic weapon ammunition.
The operation was carried out by the SSU Office in Kherson region and the National Police under the procedural supervision of Kherson Region and District Prosecutor’s Offices. (Source: Defence Connect)
19 Mar 24. U.S. Will Not Back Down on Support for Ukraine. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said Ukraine will not back down in face of the Russian invasion of the country and neither will the United States.
Austin today convened the 20th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, praising the “countries of conscience” that are working together to aid Ukraine in its fight.
Austin and Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, met with representatives of more than 50 countries and organizations to channel aid, training and capabilities to Ukraine.
In remarks opening the meeting, Austin detailed the sheer loss that Russian President Vladimir Putin has caused his own country in its brutal war on Ukraine. “For more than two years, Ukraine’s forces have fought Putin’s aggression with defiance and skill,” he said. “Russia has paid a staggering cost for Putin’s imperial dreams. At least 315,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded.”
Since the invasion, Russia has wasted up to $211bn to equip, deploy, maintain and sustain its needless war on its neighbor. “Putin’s war of choice will cost Russia $1.3trn in previously anticipated economic growth through 2026,” the secretary said. “And Ukraine’s defenders continue to degrade the Kremlin’s capabilities.”
Ukraine is fighting for its life as a sovereign nation, and the Ukrainian military has been effective. Austin noted that Ukraine’s military has destroyed or damaged 20 medium to large Russian navy vessels. Ukrainian antiaircraft capabilities continue to down Russian warplanes.
Ukrainian service members have been fighting valiantly against the Kremlin’s invaders, and Ukraine’s people have stood up even as Russia has targeted civilians far from the front lines, the secretary said. “The Ukrainian people will not let Putin prevail,” Austin said. “And neither will we.”
The stakes in the fight are high, Austin and Brown said at the conclusion of the group meeting. If Putin is successful in Ukraine, he will not stop there, Austin said. “Our allies and partners are here because they understand the stakes,” the secretary said. “And Ukraine’s friends continue to come up with innovative solutions to make key, new commitments to provide Ukraine with urgently needed capabilities — especially air defense, armor and artillery ammunition.”
The United States recently announced $300 m more in security assistance for Ukraine. This money was available due to savings in replacement of U.S. capabilities that have gone to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Austin said he believes there is a bipartisan consensus in Congress for passing a supplemental bill that will continue to fund U.S. aid to Ukraine.
New in this contact group meeting was the first meeting of the capability coalition leadership group. That meeting discussed progress and looked to coordinate the way ahead for cross-cutting issues, the secretary said.
Leading this group is: Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland and the United Kingdom. “They all stepped up to lead the capability coalitions and to commit resources and personnel to this critical task,” Austin said. “And their leadership is a testament to the unity and resolve and our insight today.”
Brown said he was inspired by the Ukrainian stand. “Despite the enormity of the challenge, Ukraine halted initial Russian advances preventing them from taking Kyiv and launched successful and offensive operations that would retake territory in the eastern parts of their country,” he said. “Ukrainian forces were able to retake more than half of the territory that Russia temporarily occupied during the early stages of the conflict.”
This winter, Russia has made some incremental gains at a great cost of personnel and equipment, the chairman said. “Ukraine continues retrenching their defenses to fortify their lines and maximize the effects of their ammunition and supplies,” he said. “From the beginning, Ukraine has asked for the capability and training to stay in the fight. And for two years, Ukrainian forces have used this coalition’s support to repel Russian attacks using innovative strategies and tactics.”
For two years, the contact group has stood together in support of Ukraine. “Russia’s plan is to wait out Western will to support Ukraine,” Brown said. “This coalition must not let that strategy work.”
Altogether, the contact group members have contributed more than $88 bn in security assistance. “The support doesn’t just help Ukraine,” the general said. “It strengthens NATO and helps to bolster the defense industrial base in the United States, Europe and the world. It enables our own security. The collective support will ensure Ukraine is successful today and into the future.”
The United States stands by Ukraine because it is the right thing to do and because America cares when freedom is at risk, the secretary said. “But we also stand by Ukraine because it’s crucial to our own security,” he said. “The United States would face grave new perils in a world where aggression and autocracy are on the march where tyrants are emboldened and where dictators think that they can wipe up a democracy off the map.
“When we invest in Ukraine security, we invest in our own security, he continued. “And we strengthen this contact group’s shared vision of an open world of rules and rights and responsibilities.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
18 Mar 24. Putin wants Ukraine ‘buffer zone’ to protect Russia from missile attacks. Moscow has faced questions over ability to defend against spate of Ukrainian drone strikes against energy infrastructure.
Vladimir Putin said he wants to create a “buffer zone” in Ukraine to protect Russia from long-range Western weapons.
The Russian president suggested the occupied belt of land would be deep enough into Ukrainian territory that it would be “quite difficult to penetrate using the foreign-made strike assets at the enemy’s disposal”.
Moscow has faced questions over its ability to defend against a recent spate of Ukrainian drone strikes against oil refineries and energy infrastructure.
Russian defences have also been thrown into doubt by pro-Kyiv Russian militias launching ground attacks into the Russian frontier regions of Belgorod and Kursk.
After winning a new six-year term in the Kremlin, Putin refused to rule out demands from pro-war ultra-nationalists for the creation of buffer zones on Ukrainian territory held by Kyiv.
“I do not exclude that, bearing in mind the tragic events taking place today, that we will be forced at some point, when we deem it appropriate, to create a certain ‘sanitary zone’ in the territories today under the Kyiv regime,” he said late on Sunday.
But he declined to further outline his plans for a “sanitary zone” in comments at his campaign headquarters on Sunday after taking 87 per cent of the vote in rubber-stamped presidential elections.
Putin hailed the “return” to Russia of annexed Ukrainian territories on Monday at a concert on Red Square to celebrate ten years since invading Crimea.
“Hand in hand, we will move forward and this will make us stronger… Long live Russia!” Putin told the crowd.
Putin boasted of a new rail link in areas of Ukraine captured by Russian forces, saying those regions had “declared their desire to return to their native family”.
He appeared at the concert alongside the three candidates who ran against him after hosting them at a Kremlin meeting in which they all congratulated him.
On Monday, the Kremlin said the creation of a buffer zone could be the only way to defend against an increasing series of attacks on Russian soil by Ukrainian forces.
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, said in response to questions over Putin’s remarks: “Against the backdrop of drone attacks and the shelling of our territory: public facilities, residential measures must be taken to secure these territories.
“They can only be secured by creating some kind of buffer zone so that any means that the enemy uses to strike us are out of range.”
Pro-Moscow commentators have previously demanded large-scale advances of at least 15 kilometres into Ukrainian-held territory to move back Kyiv’s artillery systems from the Russian border. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
19 Mar 24. Rogue Russian soldiers blow up ammunition depot. Russian volunteers fighting for Ukraine say they have destroyed an ammunition depot in the border village of Tetkino, in Kursk. Drone footage posted on social media shows smoke rising from the warehouse after it is hit by artillery, before a second strike causes the building to burst into flames.
”We destroyed the ammunition depot of Putin’s army in Tekino. To be continued!” the Legion of Freedom posted on Telegram.
They are one of several pro-Kyiv groups currently involved in cross-border raids inside the Russian border regions of Kursk and Belgorod. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
18 Mar 24. To have peace, Europe must prepare for war, EU council president says.
Europe must strengthen its defence capabilities and shift to a “war economy” mode in response to the threat posed by Russia, European Council President Charles Michel said on Monday.
In an op-ed published in European newspapers and the Euractiv website, Michel – who will chair a meeting of EU leaders on Thursday to discuss support for Ukraine – said Europe needed to take responsibility for its own security and not rely heavily on the support of countries such as the U.S.
“If we do not get the EU’s response right and do not give Ukraine enough support to stop Russia, we are next. We must therefore be defence-ready and shift to a ‘war economy’ mode,” Michel said.
“If we want peace, we must prepare for war,” he said.
Michel said while Europe had made strides since Moscow’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine – including by increasing military manufacturing capacity by 50% – far more was needed and, for decades, Europe had not invested enough in its security and defence.
Michel urged EU countries to ensure Ukraine received what it needed on the battlefield – including by spending EU money on military equipment, and using windfall profits from Russia’s immobilised assets to purchase arms for Ukraine.
He urged countries to facilitate investments in defence – including by considering changing the mandate of the EU lending arm, the European Investment Bank, to allow it to support Europe’s defence industry.
EU countries approved an agreement on Monday to increase the EU’s support for Ukraine’s armed forces by 5 bn euros ($5.4 bn) – amid warnings that Kyiv’s forces need more resources to hold the line against a larger Russian army as a $60 bn U.S. aid package for Ukraine is being held up by Congress. ($1 = 0.9199 euros) (Source: Reuters)
19 Mar 24. Drones are key to gain advantage over Russia, Ukraine army chief says. The development of unmanned systems, or drones, is key to give Kyiv an advantage over “a numerically superior” Russian forces, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said late on Monday.
“The development of the use of unmanned systems is my priority,” Syrskyi said on Telegram after meeting his deputy, Vadym Sukharevskyi. “We are looking for asymmetric solutions to gain a qualitative advantage over a numerically superior opponent.”
The increased use of drones by both sides has been shifting the conflict away from the battlefield to strikes on each other’s military, energy and transport infrastructure.
As the Ukrainian military is outgunned and outmanned on the battlefield, Moscow’s forces have been increasing pressure along the entire frontline and making gradual gains.
President Vladimir Putin, who on Sunday was granted another six years in power after winning Russia’s presidential election, said Moscow forces have an advantage on the Ukraine battlefield and vowed to press on with his military operation.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as part of his military reforms ordered in February the creation of a separate branch of Ukraine’s armed forces devoted to drones. Sukharevskyi was put in charge of development of unmanned systems and their use by soldiers.
Military analysts say drones could potentially give Ukraine a technological edge over Moscow, given its shortages in artillery shells and other more traditional weapons. But Russia’s drone industry is also developing rapidly.
As the drones are becoming smaller, more lethal and can travel further, Ukraine has used a barrage of them to attack oil refineries inside Russia in recent months, knocking out an estimated 7% of its refining capacity in the first quarter.
Ukraine’s air and sea drone attacks on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, some of which have been successful, have also prompted the Russian defence ministry to vow over the weekend to shield the fleet from future attacks.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began more than two years ago and has since killed thousands on both sides and displaced ms of Ukrainians. (Source: Reuters)
18 Mar 24. US DoD “disagrees” with key aspect of GAO report into Ukraine equipment provision. A new GAO report into DoD processes to deliver military equipment to Ukraine and, once in country, monitor the end-use to prevent violations, revealed weakness in DoD processes.
The US Department of Defense (DoD) has disagreed with a key recommendation made by the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) to improve end-use monitoring of military equipment provided to Ukraine.
According to the latest figures provided by the DoD, the US has committed over $44.9bn in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration, including more than $44.2bn since Russia’s large-scale invasion on 24 February 2022.
Equipment provided include a full range of capabilities required for combat operations, mainly in the land domain, with smaller contributions for the maritime and air sectors.
Examples of this include dozens of main battle tanks (MBT), including 31 M1A1 Abrams and 45 T-72B MBTs, 186 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, 189 Stryker armoured personnel carriers (APC), 300 M113 APCs, and more than 2,000 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs).
Artillery and long-range fires system provided to Ukraine include 31 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) platforms and 198 155mm towed howitzers, along with millions of rounds of artillery ammunition.
More controversially, the US has also provided Ukraine with an unspecified number of dual-purpose improved conventional munitions, or DPICM. A DPICM is effectively a cluster bomb, a weapon banned by more than 100 countries around the world for the immense threat they carry for civilians both during war time and long after a conflict has ended.
A recent security assistance package announced to be provided to Ukraine included additional DPICM weapons.
US DoD disagrees with GAO on Ukraine equipment end-use monitoring
The GAO report stated that the US DoD had been delivering equipment to Ukraine “rapidly”, sometimes taking days to complete deliveries that typically take weeks. However, the DoD does not have “clear guidance” for tracking equipment deliveries, and of the data it does have, it “may not be accurate”, the GAO found.
Most of the equipment provided to Ukraine has followed the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) mechanism, which enables the US President to transfer equipment from US stocks to Ukraine, as well as some funding through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), and Foreign Military Financing, particularly in the early stages of the Ukraine-Russia war.
To streamline deliveries, the DoD established “new entities” using the PDA and ASAI but had “not fully documented the roles of responsibilities” of the new structure, the GAO found.
Further, a lack of equipment delivery specificity led to instances of equipment being recorded as having been delivered when they were in transit, potentially “weeks” before they actually arrived in Ukraine.
Perhaps of most concern in the GAO report was the disclosure that while the DoD has a programme to monitor the end of use of all equipment provided to Ukraine, it had been “unable to directly observe some sensitive defence articles” and had “allowed Ukrainian officials to self-report the status of such articles”.
To this end, the GAO issued a series of recommendations for the DoD in order to ensure that it is able to track deliveries and “better understand the equipment use case” when in the hands of Ukrainian military personnel.
Among this included the recommendation that the DoD “improve the accuracy of defence article delivery data” and to “evaluate its end-use monitoring approach” in Ukraine.
In its report summation, the GAO report said that while the DoD “agreed with five recommendations and partially agreed with two”, it had “disagreed with a recommendation to clarify guidance for documenting alleged end-use violations”.
Ukraine war in the balance, Russia on the advance
The provision of military equipment and funding to Ukraine has become a highly political topic in the United States, with $60bn in financial assistance currently shelved as Republican lawmakers seek to extract concessions from Democrat counterparts before signing off on the package.
Without this funding, which has been delayed for more than three months, Ukraine’s supplies of military equipment, in particular ammunition, have dwindled. As a result, Russia has regained the initiative on the battlefield, and is advancing across six axes of attack in the east and south of Ukraine.
Even if the funding were to be approved, the delay in providing Ukraine with the necessary equipment it needs to keep numerically superior Russian forces at bay is already having a profound impact on Kyiv’s prospects through 2024. (Source: army-technology.com)
19 Mar 24. Australia will bring home surveillance aircraft supporting Ukraine within weeks. Australia is set to bring home a surveillance aircraft that has helped to protect the delivery of military and humanitarian supplies to Ukraine, but denies it is part of any broader scaling back of support for the country.
The Royal Australian Air Force E-7A Wedgetail – which has conducted regular flying missions to monitor threats since its deployment to Germany in October – is likely to end its current role within weeks.
The Wedgetail, based on the Boeing 737-700, features a long-range surveillance radar and is equipped to simultaneously track airborne and maritime targets, according to the RAAF.
The original deployment was in response to a US request.
It is understood the US has not requested an extension of the deployment beyond its April deadline, and there will not be a gap in western monitoring as a result of Australia ending the mission.
A Defence spokesperson said the Wedgetail had helped protect the international flow of assistance into Ukraine “by providing early warning in the unlikely event of an act or threat from Russia, outside of Ukraine, against the gateway of humanitarian and military assistance”.
Asked whether Australia would extend the deployment, the spokesperson said “any future requests for support” from Australia’s international partners would be “considered in the usual way”.
Ukraine has sunk a number of ships in Russia’s powerful Black Sea fleet over the past two years, but the Australian Wedgetail was not providing information to enable such attacks, the spokesperson said.
“The E-7A Wedgetail operates outside of Russian, Belarusian and Ukrainian airspace. It is not providing surveillance assistance to Ukraine.”
The Defence spokesperson emphasised that Australian troops continued to help train Ukrainian armed forces personnel in the UK.
The situation in Ukraine, more than two years after Russia’s invasion, is likely to be on the agenda when British ministers visit Australia for talks this week.
The UK’s foreign secretary, David Cameron, and the defence secretary, Grant Shapps, will hold the annual meeting with their counterparts, Penny Wong and Richard Marles, in Adelaide on Friday.
Marles said it was “an increasingly complex strategic environment” and he looked forward to “working with our United Kingdom counterparts this week to progress ambitious new initiatives to deepen our defence partnership”.
Wong said Australia and the UK were seeking “a world that is peaceful, stable, prosperous and respectful of sovereignty”.
The Australian government’s position is to help Ukraine end the war “on its terms”.
Last month it announced a further $50m grant to the UK-administered International Fund for Ukraine. This brought Australia’s total overall support to Ukraine to $960m, including $780m in military aid.
However, the Ukrainian government is increasingly anxious about “fatigue” in western support, particularly amid a holdup in the US congress of a $60bn package for Ukraine.
Australia once proclaimed it was “the largest non-NATO contributor” to Ukraine.
But researchers working on the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker told the ABC last week that Australia had since slipped to be the fifth largest non-Nato contributor after Japan, Switzerland, South Korea and Austria. The Defence spokesperson said Australia continued to stand with its partners in offering support for Ukraine. (Source: News Now/https://uk.news.yahoo.com/)
18 Mar 24. EU council agrees 5bn euro top-up for Ukraine’s armed forces. The Council of the European Union on Monday ratified an agreement to increase the EU’s support for Ukraine’s armed forces by 5bn euros ($5.44bn) through a dedicated assistance fund.
“With the fund, we will continue to support Ukraine defend itself from Russia’s war of aggression with whatever it takes and for as long as we need to,” EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in a statement.
The cash injection comes amid warnings that Kyiv’s forces need more resources to be able to hold the line against a larger Russian army and as a $60bn package for Ukraine is being held up by U.S. Congress.
The European Union said the money would fund training and both lethal and non-lethal military gear. It will also be used to refund member states for military supplies sent to Ukraine, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told reporters after the meeting.
“I’d like to thank everybody who has contributed to this,” he said.
The 5bn euro top-up approved on Monday means the fund’s ceiling is now set at 17bn euros for the 2021-2027 period, the council said in the same statement. Ambassadors of the EU’s 27 member countries agreed to the additional funds last week. The council also approved rules to make joint procurement of military supplies from EU and Norwegian defence contractors. (Source: Reuters)
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